000
FXUS66 KMTR 190401
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS. A COOLER
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO DROP ANOTHER 5-10
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY OVER THE INTERIOR AND 2-4 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. THE MARINE LAYER IS NOT IDENTIFIABLE ON THE FT ORD
PROFILER OR THE OAK SOUNDING AS THE AIRMASS HAS REALLY COOLED
ALOFT. THEREFORE THE STRATUS WILL ONLY BE AREAL IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT BUT THE UPPER LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY BUT
WARMING WILL BE VERY GRADUAL DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS THE LOWER
90S OVER THE WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS FRIDAY BUT SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID 90S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.
COOLING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LONG RANGE MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE INLAND AREAS.
SUMMER SOLSTICE WILL OCCUR AT 5:04Z ON JUNE 21...WHICH IS AT
10:04 PM PDT THURSDAY JUNE 20.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION HAS MIXED OUT THE MARINE
LAYER RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY.
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. STRATUS TONIGHT
WILL RETURN LATE AND WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE RESULTING IN AN
EARLY BURN OFF SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT
FORM SFO- SAC IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4.5 MB AND EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO 5 MB TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEREFORE GUSTY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER KSFO0 AS A PATCH OF STRATUS SITS
JUST EAST OF THE RUNWAYS. OTHERWISE PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 04Z AND 06Z OVER KSFO AND KOAK...RESPECTIVELY. AN
EARLY CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG ONSHORE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WEST WIND AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT POSSIBLE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET WILL
AFFECT THE APPROACH THIS EVENING. THE THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL
POSSIBLY SCATTER OUT BEFORE REFORMING TONIGHT. CIGS TONIGHT WILL
BE PATCHY WILL CLEAR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMRY THAT WILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF BORDERLINE
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. AN EARLY CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY
WEST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
VFR THIS MORNING WITH REMAINING
PATCHES OF CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODING. GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN THIS EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 190050
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
550 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE DISTRICT TODAY. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST AND JUST NORTH OF POINT REYES. EVEN WITH THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...24-HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE RUNNING COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY BY AS MANY S 2 TO 6 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S (AND A FEW LOWER 80S
IN SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTIES.) SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ONSHORE WITH 5.0 MB BETWEEN SFO AND SAC...AND
13.6 MB BETWEEN SFO AND WMC. ACCORDINGLY...THE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE BAY AREA ARE VERY GUSTY WITH MANY PLACES GUSTING OVER 20-30 MPH.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO REFORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
SPREAD LOCALLY INLAND...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE PATCHY. THE UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WARMEST INLAND AREAS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND 90S
BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MORE
ESTABLISHED MARINE LAYER.
SUMMER SOLSTICE WILL OCCUR AT 5:04Z ON JUNE 21...WHICH IS AT
10:04 PM PDT THURSDAY JUNE 20.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION HAS MIXED OUT THE MARINE
LAYER RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY.
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. STRATUS TONIGHT
WILL RETURN LATE AND WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE RESULTING IN AN
EARLY BURN OFF SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT
FORM SFO- SAC IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4.5 MB AND EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO 5 MB TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEREFORE GUSTY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER KSFO0 AS A PATCH OF STRATUS SITS
JUST EAST OF THE RUNWAYS. OTHERWISE PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 04Z AND 06Z OVER KSFO AND KOAK...RESPECTIVELY. AN
EARLY CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG ONSHORE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WEST WIND AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT POSSIBLE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET WILL
AFFECT THE APPROACH THIS EVENING. THE THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL
POSSIBLY SCATTER OUT BEFORE REFORMING TONIGHT. CIGS TONIGHT WILL
BE PATCHY WILL CLEAR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMRY THAT WILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF BORDERLINE
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. AN EARLY CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY
WEST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
VFR THIS MORNING WITH REMAINING
PATCHES OF CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODING. GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN THIS EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 182139
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE DISTRICT TODAY. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST AND JUST NORTH OF POINT REYES. EVEN WITH THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...24-HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE RUNNING COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY BY AS MANY S 2 TO 6 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S (AND A FEW LOWER 80S
IN SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTIES.) SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ONSHORE WITH 5.0 MB BETWEEN SFO AND SAC...AND
13.6 MB BETWEEN SFO AND WMC. ACCORDINGLY...THE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE BAY AREA ARE VERY GUSTY WITH MANY PLACES GUSTING OVER 20-30 MPH.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO REFORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
SPREAD LOCALLY INLAND...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE PATCHY. THE UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WARMEST INLAND AREAS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND 90S
BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MORE
ESTABLISHED MARINE LAYER.
SUMMER SOLSTICE WILL OCCUR AT 5:04Z ON JUNE 21...WHICH IS AT
10:04 PM PDT THURSDAY JUNE 20.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH MIXING OUT THE MARINE LAYER.
ONSHORE SFO-SAC GRADIENT ALREADY ABOVE 3 MB AND FORECAST ABOVE 5 MB
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MODERATE WINDS TO THE TERMINALS. STRATUS
IN SF BAY TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE PATCHY AND HAVE EARLY BURN TOMORROW
MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH EDGE OF STRATUS
IS NUDGING HALFWAY ACROSS THE AIRFIELD DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BRING WEST WIND UP TO AROUND
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT. NO AWW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. STRATUS TO RETURN AROUND 05Z THOUGH LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS IT WILL BE PATCHY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...FEW TO SCT AROUND 015 POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES CLOUDS THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO GAP.
OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS MORNING WITH REMAINING
PATCHES OF CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODING. GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN THIS EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 181750
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MANAGED TO MIX
OUT THE MARINE LAYER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. THERE ARE FEWER LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...THUS HAVE DONE A FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE
DRIZZLE AND TRIM BACK FOG FOR THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL...HOWEVER...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
BY SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE
TODAY WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND 70S AND 80S
INLAND. WARMEST INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE AROUND 90 BY THEN. AFTER
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE COAST ONCE AGAIN FOR SLIGHT COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH MIXING OUT THE MARINE LAYER.
ONSHORE SFO-SAC GRADIENT ALREADY ABOVE 3 MB AND FORECAST ABOVE 5 MB
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MODERATE WINDS TO THE TERMINALS. STRATUS
IN SF BAY TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE PATCHY AND HAVE EARLY BURN TOMORROW
MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH EDGE OF STRATUS
IS NUDGING HALFWAY ACROSS THE AIRFIELD DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BRING WEST WIND UP TO AROUND
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT. NO AWW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. STRATUS TO RETURN AROUND 05Z THOUGH LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS IT WILL BE PATCHY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...FEW TO SCT AROUND 015 POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES CLOUDS THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO GAP.
OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS MORNING WITH REMAINING
PATCHES OF CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODING. GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN THIS EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 181535
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MANAGED TO MIX
OUT THE MARINE LAYER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. THERE ARE FEWER LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...THUS HAVE DONE A FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE
DRIZZLE AND TRIM BACK FOG FOR THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL...HOWEVER...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
BY SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE
TODAY WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND 70S AND 80S
INLAND. WARMEST INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE AROUND 90 BY THEN. AFTER
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE COAST ONCE AGAIN FOR SLIGHT COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:53 AM PDT TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
CONVERGING UPON THE COAST WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS NUDGING SOME
OF THE LOW CLOUDS INLAND THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS IS MORE MOIST
THIS MORNING. STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION ON LINKED SURFACE TO LOW
LEVEL NW WIND FLOW WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS WELL
AS A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW CLOUDS INLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ONSHORE GRADIENTS SFO-SAC ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BACK UP TO 4-5 MB BY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY WITH PREVAILING TREND EXPECTED TO FOLLOW MVFR CIG TIL 18Z.
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING COULD LEAD TO SCT-BKN MVFR CIG 18Z-20Z BUT
NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO. MORE OR LESS LOW LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD HELP CLEARING PROCESS ACCELERATE BY 18Z. OTHER ISSUE
REMAINS WIND STRENGTH...AS MENTIONED ABOVE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL PUT KSFO BACK WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 30
KNOTS. THE ARRIVAL OF A MODERATE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
RESULT IN VFR 20Z-06Z WINDOW.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THIS MORNING TRENDING
TO MVFR BY 17Z. VFR FORECAST 18Z-01Z. CIGS LIKELY RETURNING EARLY
THIS EVENING AS NW SURFACE WIND FORCING RESULTS IN LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE ON MONTEREY PENINSULA.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 181159
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
459 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...500MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES OFF OF THE WA/OR COAST THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
THROUGH...850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL PER RAP40 ANALYSIS.
AT THE SURFACE...A DECENT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE AND HAS ALLOWED
FOR LOW STRATUS TO SPREAD INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY
AREAS AND HAS EVEN PUSHED INTO THE VALLEYS.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO BURN-OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY FROM WHAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY DUE TO COOLER
850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND MORE-SO
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
EXITING THROUGH.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST AN ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RETURN. THIS WILL BRING NEAR AVERAGE
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE CENTRAL COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:53 AM PDT TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
CONVERGING UPON THE COAST WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS NUDGING SOME
OF THE LOW CLOUDS INLAND THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS IS MORE MOIST
THIS MORNING. STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION ON LINKED SURFACE TO LOW
LEVEL NW WIND FLOW WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS WELL
AS A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW CLOUDS INLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ONSHORE GRADIENTS SFO-SAC ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BACK UP TO 4-5 MB BY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY WITH PREVAILING TREND EXPECTED TO FOLLOW MVFR CIG TIL 18Z.
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING COULD LEAD TO SCT-BKN MVFR CIG 18Z-20Z BUT
NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO. MORE OR LESS LOW LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD HELP CLEARING PROCESS ACCELERATE BY 18Z. OTHER ISSUE
REMAINS WIND STRENGTH...AS MENTIONED ABOVE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL PUT KSFO BACK WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 30
KNOTS. THE ARRIVAL OF A MODERATE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
RESULT IN VFR 20Z-06Z WINDOW.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THIS MORNING TRENDING
TO MVFR BY 17Z. VFR FORECAST 18Z-01Z. CIGS LIKELY RETURNING EARLY
THIS EVENING AS NW SURFACE WIND FORCING RESULTS IN LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE ON MONTEREY PENINSULA.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 181048
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
348 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...500MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES OFF OF THE WA/OR COAST THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
THROUGH...850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL PER RAP40 ANALYSIS.
AT THE SURFACE...A DECENT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE AND HAS ALLOWED
FOR LOW STRATUS TO SPREAD INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY
AREAS AND HAS EVEN PUSHED INTO THE VALLEYS.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO BURN-OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY FROM WHAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY DUE TO COOLER
850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND MORE-SO
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
EXITING THROUGH.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST AN ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RETURN. THIS WILL BRING NEAR AVERAGE
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE CENTRAL COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:56 PM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS IS GRADUALLY
MOVING IN UNDER A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN OVER MOST AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...1000 FOOT CIGS HAVE FILL INTO THE
BAY THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
APPROACH UNTIL AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING AROUND 16Z OVER KSNS AND 18Z OVER KMRY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 180556
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1056 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. WITH
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STRONG NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE
MARINE LAYER IS NOT WELL DEFINED. AS A RESULT STRATUS WILL ONLY BE
AREAL IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALONG THE COAST. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP SOME MORE ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST SO THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES MORE COOLING.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND INLAND TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT GOING TO GET VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY INTERIOR AND LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED...ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD A WARM RIDGE OVER THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS AND GEM KEEP THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN CHARGE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:56 PM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS IS GRADUALLY
MOVING IN UNDER A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN OVER MOST AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...1000 FOOT CIGS HAVE FILL INTO THE
BAY THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
APPROACH UNTIL AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING AROUND 16Z OVER KSNS AND 18Z OVER KMRY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 180358
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. WITH
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STRONG NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE
MARINE LAYER IS NOT WELL DEFINED. AS A RESULT STRATUS WILL ONLY BE
AREAL IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALONG THE COAST. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP SOME MORE ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST SO THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES MORE COOLING.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND INLAND TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT GOING TO GET VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY INTERIOR AND LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED...ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD A WARM RIDGE OVER THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS AND GEM KEEP THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN CHARGE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSFO THAT CURRENTLY
HAS A BROKEN CIGS OF 1000 FEET. TEMPORARY CLEARING POSSIBLE BUT
AM GOING PESSIMISTIC WITH A PREVAILING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO LATE
TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO-SAC HAS INCREASED TO OVER
5 MB. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER MOST AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED OVER KSFO WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THE STRATUS PULLING BACK TEMPORARILY THIS
EVENING. AS STATED ABOVE HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS EVENINGS
FORECAST AND HAVE KEPT PREVAILING CIGS IN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AS A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT CONTINUES.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...1000 FOOT CIGS WILL SLOWLY FILL INTO THE
BAY THIS EVENING AFFECTING THE APPROACH BY 01Z-02Z. AN EARLY
CLEARING IS IN STORE AGAIN TUESDAY WITH THE BRIDGE SCATTERING OUT
AROUND 15Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
RETURNING AROUND 03Z OVER KMRY. CIGS WILL RETURN OVER KSNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND 16Z OVER KSNS AND
18Z OVER KMRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 180018
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
518 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:01 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS LINGERING NEAR PT REYES...THE
SAN MATEO COAST AND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. THE SFO TO SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT IS STRONG AT 4.2 MB
WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS BEING REPORTED AT MOST SITES ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30 MPH OUT IN THE DELTA WITH 32 MPH GUST LAST
HOUR AT KSFO. THE MARINE INVERSION LAYER IS POORLY DEFINED AT
AROUND 1500 FEET BUT WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DONT EXPECT A WELL DEFINED LAYER TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT STRATUS
TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE BAY.
NO BIG CHANGES FOR TUESDAY BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR SLIGHT
COOLING OF TEMPS AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH WITH 850
MB TEMPS COOLING TO 10 CELSIUS OR LESS FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD
AND LESS THEN 15 CELSIUS FOR SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY. SO EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE MOST INLAND AREAS WILL HOVER IN THE 70S WITH
80S CONFINED TO THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN 850 MB TEMPS
BY WEDS AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD.
A MORE NOTED WARMING TREND BACK TO SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE MIDWEEK TROUGH AS 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOUT 20-21 CELSIUS
BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW MAY TURN ONSHORE WITH COASTAL COOLING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD A WARM RIDGE OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS AND GEM KEEP THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN CHARGE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSFO THAT CURRENTLY
HAS A BROKEN CIGS OF 1000 FEET. TEMPORARY CLEARING POSSIBLE BUT
AM GOING PESSIMISTIC WITH A PREVAILING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO LATE
TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO-SAC HAS INCREASED TO OVER
5 MB. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER MOST AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED OVER KSFO WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THE STRATUS PULLING BACK TEMPORARILY THIS
EVENING. AS STATED ABOVE HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS EVENINGS
FORECAST AND HAVE KEPT PREVAILING CIGS IN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AS A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT CONTINUES.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...1000 FOOT CIGS WILL SLOWLY FILL INTO THE
BAY THIS EVENING AFFECTING THE APPROACH BY 01Z-02Z. AN EARLY
CLEARING IS IN STORE AGAIN TUESDAY WITH THE BRIDGE SCATTERING OUT
AROUND 15Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
RETURNING AROUND 03Z OVER KMRY. CIGS WILL RETURN OVER KSNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND 16Z OVER KSNS AND
18Z OVER KMRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 172101
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
201 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:01 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS LINGERING NEAR PT REYES...THE
SAN MATEO COAST AND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. THE SFO TO SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT IS STRONG AT 4.2 MB
WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS BEING REPORTED AT MOST SITES ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30 MPH OUT IN THE DELTA WITH 32 MPH GUST LAST
HOUR AT KSFO. THE MARINE INVERSION LAYER IS POORLY DEFINED AT
AROUND 1500 FEET BUT WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DONT EXPECT A WELL DEFINED LAYER TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT STRATUS
TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE BAY.
NO BIG CHANGES FOR TUESDAY BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR SLIGHT
COOLING OF TEMPS AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH WITH 850
MB TEMPS COOLING TO 10 CELSIUS OR LESS FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD
AND LESS THEN 15 CELSIUS FOR SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY. SO EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE MOST INLAND AREAS WILL HOVER IN THE 70S WITH
80S CONFINED TO THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN 850 MB TEMPS
BY WEDS AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD.
A MORE NOTED WARMING TREND BACK TO SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE MIDWEEK TROUGH AS 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOUT 20-21 CELSIUS
BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW MAY TURN ONSHORE WITH COASTAL COOLING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD A WARM RIDGE OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS AND GEM KEEP THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN CHARGE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. LOW
CLOUDS PILING UP ALONG SAN MATEO COAST HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE BEING
MOSTLY BLOCKED BY THE COASTAL HILLS. ONSHORE GRADIENT SFO-SAC
FORECAST TO REACH OVER 5 MB THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO GUSTY WEST
WINDS. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS LIKELY WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS TO
AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY RETURN
THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY CIGS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH MORE
SOLID OVC AFTER 01Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...FEW TO SCT ACROSS THE APPROACH FOR NEXT TWO
HOURS AS SOME CLOUDS FILTER OVER THE RIDGE LINE...OTHERWISE SIMILAR
TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS
RETURNING AROUND 04Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 171743
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:06 AM PDT MONDAY...ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST AND BY JUNE STANDARDS WERE OFF TO A PRETTY
SUNNY START. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO SAC IS 2.8 MB WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DELTA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL INLAND WITH NO REAL HOT WEATHER TO SPEAK OF. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT 850 MB
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WILL DROP BELOW 10 CELSIUS. THUS
COOLING ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD STRATUS FORMATION MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE VERSUS A LARGE STRATIFIED CLOUD DECK OVER THE
OCEAN...SO WOULD EXPECT ONLY PATCHY BAYSIDE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDS. A NOTED WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN BY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD WEATHER EVEN NEAR THE COAST. BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WITH A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BUILD A STRONG
AND WARM RIDGE OVER THE STATE AND MUCH OF THE WEST BY THE END OF
THE MONTH...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS ON EVOLVING LONG
WAVE PATTERN AS JULY IS USUALLY WHEN STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN
DEVELOPS THAT WOULD FAVOR FOUR-CORNERS HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. LOW
CLOUDS PILING UP ALONG SAN MATEO COAST HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE BEING
MOSTLY BLOCKED BY THE COASTAL HILLS. ONSHORE GRADIENT SFO-SAC
FORECAST TO REACH OVER 5 MB THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO GUSTY WEST
WINDS. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS LIKELY WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS TO
AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY RETURN
THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY CIGS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH MORE
SOLID OVC AFTER 01Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...FEW TO SCT ACROSS THE APPROACH FOR NEXT TWO
HOURS AS SOME CLOUDS FILTER OVER THE RIDGE LINE...OTHERWISE SIMILAR
TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS
RETURNING AROUND 04Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 171615
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:06 AM PDT MONDAY...ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST AND BY JUNE STANDARDS WERE OFF TO A PRETTY
SUNNY START. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO SAC IS 2.8 MB WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DELTA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL INLAND WITH NO REAL HOT WEATHER TO SPEAK OF. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT 850 MB
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WILL DROP BELOW 10 CELSIUS. THUS
COOLING ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD STRATUS FORMATION MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE VERSUS A LARGE STRATIFIED CLOUD DECK OVER THE
OCEAN...SO WOULD EXPECT ONLY PATCHY BAYSIDE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDS. A NOTED WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN BY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD WEATHER EVEN NEAR THE COAST. BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WITH A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BUILD A STRONG
AND WARM RIDGE OVER THE STATE AND MUCH OF THE WEST BY THE END OF
THE MONTH...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS ON EVOLVING LONG
WAVE PATTERN AS JULY IS USUALLY WHEN STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN
DEVELOPS THAT WOULD FAVOR FOUR-CORNERS HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE
GRADIENT SFO-SAC FORECAST TO REACH OVER 5 MB THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO GUSTY WEST WINDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS TO
AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY RETURN
THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING CIGS AROUND 01Z OR 02Z
WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY PATCHY
MVFR NEAR MRY OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. STRATUS RETURNING AROUND 04Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 171606
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
906 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:06 AM PDT MONDAY...ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST AND BY JUNE STANDARDS WERE OFF TO A PRETTY
SUNNY START. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO SAC IS 2.8 MB WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DELTA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL INLAND WITH NO REAL HOT WEATHER TO SPEAK OF. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT 850 MB
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WILL DROP BELOW 10 CELSIUS. THUS
COOLING ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD STRATUS FORMATION MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE VERSUS A LARGE STRATIFIED CLOUD DECK OVER THE
OCEAN...SO WOULD EXPECT ONLY PATCHY BAYSIDE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDS. A NOTED WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN BY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD WEATHER EVEN NEAR THE COAST. BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WITH A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BUILD A STRONG
AND WARM RIDGE OVER THE STATE AND MUCH OF THE WEST BY THE END OF
THE MONTH...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS ON EVOLVING LONG
WAVE PATTERN AS JULY IS USUALLY WHEN STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN
DEVELOPS THAT WOULD FAVOR FOUR-CORNERS HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS WAS QUICKLY PILING
UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. FORT ORD PROFILER AS
OF 2 AM SHOWS A MARINE INVERSION JUST BEGINNING TO LIFT. MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING BY LATE MORNING AND A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THROW IN SLOW AND STEADY LOW LEVEL COOLING PER MODEL FORECASTS AND
CONDITIONS LEAN TOWARD A STRATUS INTRUSION. TIMING IT IS EXTRA
COMPLICATED TODAY IN PART BECAUSE DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING MAY HELP
ERODE SOME OF THE STRATUS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SO IT`S A
VERY TOUGH CALL TO SAY WHEN A SOLID LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MOVE
INLAND. WITH EXCEPTION OF WHERE THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
CAUSING CIGS IT WOULD SEEM THAT THINGS ADD UP TO EITHER AN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING STRATUS INTRUSION FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE
AREA.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
OCCURRED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HAF-SFO GRADIENT IS PRESENTLY 2 MB. SO
FAR THE SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS HELPED PREVENT STRATUS FROM
MOVING INTO KSFO BUT IT`S NOT FAR AWAY. IT`S A LOW PROBABILITY (AND
LOW CONFIDENCE) BUT WE MIGHT JUST GET BY WITH VFR THIS MORNING. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER A WEAKENING OF THE EPAC SURFACE RIDGE...THE
ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AND A 4-5 MB SFO-SAC GRADIENT MEANS AN EARLY
STRATUS INTRUSION. BY THIS TIME CIGS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
LIFTING ABOVE 1600 FEET. 12Z TAF INDICATES TEMPO MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING 21Z. CIGS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGHING...ROBUST
ONSHORE WINDS AND A DEEPER AND WEAKER MARINE INVERSION PREVAIL.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. THE APPROACH HAS A CHANCE
OF STAYING VFR THIS MORNING. ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
BY EITHER LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH CIGS IN MVFR CATEGORY.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS CONTINUES TO CONVERGE NEAR
THE PENINSULA AND FILL IN OVER THE MONTEREY BAY. IFR IS FORECAST
THIS MORNING. MVFR IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 171138
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
438 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:55 AM PDT MONDAY...THE MARINE LAYER ACROSS
THE REGION IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THUS...LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS. HAVING
SAID THAT...CLOUD DECK IS APPROACHING THE SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAY AREAS AT THIS HOUR.
THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE TODAY...ALLOWING FOR MIXING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL RESULT IN COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
FURTHER EAST...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BACK IN OVERHEAD AND BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS).
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS WAS QUICKLY PILING
UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. FORT ORD PROFILER AS
OF 2 AM SHOWS A MARINE INVERSION JUST BEGINNING TO LIFT. MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING BY LATE MORNING AND A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THROW IN SLOW AND STEADY LOW LEVEL COOLING PER MODEL FORECASTS AND
CONDITIONS LEAN TOWARD A STRATUS INTRUSION. TIMING IT IS EXTRA
COMPLICATED TODAY IN PART BECAUSE DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING MAY HELP
ERODE SOME OF THE STRATUS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SO IT`S A
VERY TOUGH CALL TO SAY WHEN A SOLID LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MOVE
INLAND. WITH EXCEPTION OF WHERE THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
CAUSING CIGS IT WOULD SEEM THAT THINGS ADD UP TO EITHER AN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING STRATUS INTRUSION FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE
AREA.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
OCCURRED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HAF-SFO GRADIENT IS PRESENTLY 2 MB. SO
FAR THE SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS HELPED PREVENT STRATUS FROM
MOVING INTO KSFO BUT IT`S NOT FAR AWAY. IT`S A LOW PROBABILITY (AND
LOW CONFIDENCE) BUT WE MIGHT JUST GET BY WITH VFR THIS MORNING. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER A WEAKENING OF THE EPAC SURFACE RIDGE...THE
ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AND A 4-5 MB SFO-SAC GRADIENT MEANS AN EARLY
STRATUS INTRUSION. BY THIS TIME CIGS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
LIFTING ABOVE 1600 FEET. 12Z TAF INDICATES TEMPO MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING 21Z. CIGS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGHING...ROBUST
ONSHORE WINDS AND A DEEPER AND WEAKER MARINE INVERSION PREVAIL.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. THE APPROACH HAS A CHANCE
OF STAYING VFR THIS MORNING. ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
BY EITHER LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH CIGS IN MVFR CATEGORY.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS CONTINUES TO CONVERGE NEAR
THE PENINSULA AND FILL IN OVER THE MONTEREY BAY. IFR IS FORECAST
THIS MORNING. MVFR IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 171008
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
308 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:55 AM PDT MONDAY...THE MARINE LAYER ACROSS
THE REGION IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THUS...LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS. HAVING
SAID THAT...CLOUD DECK IS APPROACHING THE SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAY AREAS AT THIS HOUR.
THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE TODAY...ALLOWING FOR MIXING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL RESULT IN COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
FURTHER EAST...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BACK IN OVERHEAD AND BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS).
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
STRATUS HAS CLEARED OFFSHORE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT THAT HAS DEVELOPED. THE ACV-SFO PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ONLY 2.8 MB BUT BELIEVE THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
PACNW IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE AT ACV LOWER AND THUS IT DOES NOT
REFLECT A STRONG N-S GRADIENT. A LOOK AT THE SFO-SBA GRADIENT DOES
SHOW THIS AS THIS GRADIENT HAS INCREASED FROM 1.7 MB LAST NIGHT TO
5.5 MB THIS EVENING. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE
PATCHY IN THE MRY AND SFO BAY AREAS. LATEST FORECAST BRINGS IFR
CIGS INTO SFO AFTER 12Z BUT HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS IT MAY
STAY CLEAR ALL NIGHT. MARINE LAYER IS DOWN TO 1000 FEET SO ANY
CIGS THAT COME IN WILL BE IFR.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 10Z BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MRY AND SNS AFTER 12Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 170535
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1035 PM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 138W THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MANAGED TO
SUPPRESS THE MARINE LAYER OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IN FACT...THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH DECREASED FROM ABOUT 2000 FEET YESTERDAY
EVENING DOWN TO JUST 1000 FEET BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE RESULT WAS
EARLY CLEARING FOR INLAND AREAS AND WIDESPREAD CLEARING AT THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EXTRA SUN TODAY...TEMPERATURES WERE
WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT NEARLY ALL REPORTING LOCATIONS.
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW THIS EVENING...1200
FEET DEEP ON THE OAK SOUNDING AND 1000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD.
WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST AND A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. A STRONG MARINE
PUSH WILL PROBABLY GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS...BY TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 7 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM THE NORM EXPECTED
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING INLAND
ON TUESDAY EVENING AND LOCALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE HILLS AND NEAR THE COAST FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS ALOFT WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY BY LATE
TUESDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 10 DEG
C. THAT MUCH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD WIPE OUT THE MARINE INVERSION
AND HELP TO BREAK UP THE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK. BUT THE
PERSISTENT STRONG AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT
LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN NEAR THE
WEST COAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
STRATUS HAS CLEARED OFFSHORE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT THAT HAS DEVELOPED. THE ACV-SFO PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ONLY 2.8 MB BUT BELIEVE THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
PACNW IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE AT ACV LOWER AND THUS IT DOES NOT
REFLECT A STRONG N-S GRADIENT. A LOOK AT THE SFO-SBA GRADIENT DOES
SHOW THIS AS THIS GRADIENT HAS INCREASED FROM 1.7 MB LAST NIGHT TO
5.5 MB THIS EVENING. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE
PATCHY IN THE MRY AND SFO BAY AREAS. LATEST FORECAST BRINGS IFR
CIGS INTO SFO AFTER 12Z BUT HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS IT MAY
STAY CLEAR ALL NIGHT. MARINE LAYER IS DOWN TO 1000 FEET SO ANY
CIGS THAT COME IN WILL BE IFR.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 10Z BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MRY AND SNS AFTER 12Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 170401
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 PM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 138W THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MANAGED TO
SUPPRESS THE MARINE LAYER OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IN FACT...THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH DECREASED FROM ABOUT 2000 FEET YESTERDAY
EVENING DOWN TO JUST 1000 FEET BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE RESULT WAS
EARLY CLEARING FOR INLAND AREAS AND WIDESPREAD CLEARING AT THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EXTRA SUN TODAY...TEMPERATURES WERE
WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT NEARLY ALL REPORTING LOCATIONS.
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW THIS EVENING...1200
FEET DEEP ON THE OAK SOUNDING AND 1000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD.
WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST AND A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. A STRONG MARINE
PUSH WILL PROBABLY GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS...BY TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 7 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM THE NORM EXPECTED
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING INLAND
ON TUESDAY EVENING AND LOCALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE HILLS AND NEAR THE COAST FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS ALOFT WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY BY LATE
TUESDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 10 DEG
C. THAT MUCH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD WIPE OUT THE MARINE INVERSION
AND HELP TO BREAK UP THE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK. BUT THE
PERSISTENT STRONG AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT
LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN NEAR THE
WEST COAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME
SHALLOWER AND IS NOW AROUND 1200 FEET. FLOW IS ONSHORE BUT STRATUS
IS NOT BANKED UP ALONG THE COAST WHICH SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL
BE LATE SPREADING INTO THE SFO BAY AREA.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH HOUR.
WEST WINDS TO 25 KT GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KT THROUGH 04Z. CLOUDS
WILL START TO MOVE IN AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS BY 10Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
AROUND PT PINOS AND THIS WILL EXPAND OVER MRY BAY. IFR CIGS OVER
MRY AND SNS BY 04Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 162359
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
459 PM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUED TO IMPACT MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS AND A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1000 FEET KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL
ALONG THE COAST AND MILD INLAND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S INLAND. ONE OF THE WARMEST SPOTS SO FAR WAS PINNACLES
NATIONAL MONUMENT...AT 89 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE...ALLOWING A
COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S. A DEEP
MARINE LAYER NEARING 2000 FEET WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
MAKE MANY LOCATIONS FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST FROM WA/OR ALLOWING FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER CA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND
LOCATIONS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH INLAND
TEMPERATURES CREEPING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN NAPA/SONOMA COUNTIES AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY EVEN TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF JUNE...BUT
WILL FEEL MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE COOL WEATHER PATTERN AS OF
LATE.
A BIG UPDATE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTERS 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM JUNE 24TH THROUGH JUNE
30TH) WHERE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME
SHALLOWER AND IS NOW AROUND 1200 FEET. FLOW IS ONSHORE BUT STRATUS
IS NOT BANKED UP ALONG THE COAST WHICH SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL
BE LATE SPREADING INTO THE SFO BAY AREA.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH HOUR.
WEST WINDS TO 25 KT GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KT THROUGH 04Z. CLOUDS
WILL START TO MOVE IN AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS BY 10Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
AROUND PT PINOS AND THIS WILL EXPAND OVER MRY BAY. IFR CIGS OVER
MRY AND SNS BY 04Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 162045
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
145 PM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUED TO IMPACT MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS AND A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1000 FEET KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL
ALONG THE COAST AND MILD INLAND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S INLAND. ONE OF THE WARMEST SPOTS SO FAR WAS PINNACLES
NATIONAL MONUMENT...AT 89 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE...ALLOWING A
COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S. A DEEP
MARINE LAYER NEARING 2000 FEET WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
MAKE MANY LOCATIONS FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST FROM WA/OR ALLOWING FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER CA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND
LOCATIONS...BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH INLAND
TEMPERATURES CREEPING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN NAPA/SONOMA COUNTIES AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY EVEN TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF JUNE...BUT
WILL FEEL MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE COOL WEATHER PATTERN AS OF
LATE.
A BIG UPDATE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTERS 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK (VALID FROM JUNE 24TH THROUGH JUNE
30TH) WHERE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS
STILL AROUND 1400 FEET BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CLEARED FROM
ALL AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TODAY WITH INCREASED
SEABREEZE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AFTER
06Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. AN EARLY RETURN OF
COASTAL STRATUS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 161748
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1048 AM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT...TO AROUND 1400 FEET...RESULTING IN LESS
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE INLAND THIS MORNING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH MORE INLAND
INTRUSION THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WERE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED LAST
NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION OF STRATUS NEARLY STAGNANT AND ALLOW FOR DECENT
ONSHORE FLOW AND NEARLY IDENTICAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE
60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THE REGION SHOULD SEE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT WILL PEAK JUST
OVER 5 MB...WHERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IT PEAKED AT 4.8 MB DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN...EVEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE MONTEREY
AND SF BAYS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN AND LITTLE TEMPERATURES VARIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED
SLIGHTLY...YET REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LOW STRATUS OFFSHORE AND INTO
THE MONTEREY...SALINAS VALLEY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONS.
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24HRS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OFFSHORE...WEST OF THE WA/OR
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND THE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MIDWEEK AND
BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH PULLS
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVERHEAD AND BRING A WARMING TREND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS
STILL AROUND 1400 FEET BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CLEARED FROM
ALL AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TODAY WITH INCREASED
SEABREEZE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AFTER
06Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. AN EARLY RETURN OF
COASTAL STRATUS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 161603
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 AM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT...TO AROUND 1400 FEET...RESULTING IN LESS
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE INLAND THIS MORNING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH MORE INLAND
INTRUSION THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WERE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED LAST
NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION OF STRATUS NEARLY STAGNANT AND ALLOW FOR DECENT
ONSHORE FLOW AND NEARLY IDENTICAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE
60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THE REGION SHOULD SEE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT WILL PEAK JUST
OVER 5 MB...WHERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IT PEAKED AT 4.8 MB DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN...EVEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE MONTEREY
AND SF BAYS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN AND LITTLE TEMPERATURES VARIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED
SLIGHTLY...YET REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LOW STRATUS OFFSHORE AND INTO
THE MONTEREY...SALINAS VALLEY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONS.
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24HRS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OFFSHORE...WEST OF THE WA/OR
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND THE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MIDWEEK AND
BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH PULLS
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVERHEAD AND BRING A WARMING TREND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...PROFILER DATA FROM BODEGA
BAY AND FORT ORD SHOW THE MARINE LAYER GETTING A LITTLE COMPRESSED
PRESENTLY DOWN TO 1400 FEET DEEP. LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING ACCOMPANIED
BY SLOWLY INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS (RIDGING) SUPPORTS A LOWER
MARINE LAYER DEPTH FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT LEAST. BY THE EVENING
A VERY WEAK SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL VERY LIKELY LIFT THE MARINE
LAYER BACK UP AGAIN. ADDITIONALLY ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING FURTHER DEEPENING (AND WEAKENING BY
LOW LEVEL COOLING) THE MARINE LAYER.
THE ONSHORE GRADIENT SFO-SAC IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4-5 MB TODAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST WINDS PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY WATERS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LESS STRATUS WAS SEEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMPARED
TO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZES AND A SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND IF STRATUS IS PLENTIFUL ON THE COAST AND
THE MARINE LAYER REVERSES TO DEEPENING AGAIN THEN EXPECT GREATER CHANCES
FOR AN EVENING RETURN.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE WINDS AND A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER COULD BRING STRATUS IN.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS PERSISTED
ALL DAY YESTERDAY AS A DRY TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGING TODAY
COULD HELP A LITTLE MORE AND MIX OUT THE STRATUS AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EARLY RETURN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 161150 CCA
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
448 AM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED SLIGHTLY...YET
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LOW STRATUS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE
MONTEREY...SALINAS VALLEY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONS.
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24HRS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OFFSHORE...WEST OF THE WA/OR
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND THE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MIDWEEK AND
BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH PULLS
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVERHEAD AND BRING A WARMING TREND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...PROFILER DATA FROM BODEGA
BAY AND FORT ORD SHOW THE MARINE LAYER GETTING A LITTLE COMPRESSED
PRESENTLY DOWN TO 1400 FEET DEEP. LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING ACCOMPANIED
BY SLOWLY INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS (RIDGING) SUPPORTS A LOWER
MARINE LAYER DEPTH FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT LEAST. BY THE EVENING
A VERY WEAK SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL VERY LIKELY LIFT THE MARINE
LAYER BACK UP AGAIN. ADDITIONALLY ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING FURTHER DEEPENING (AND WEAKENING BY
LOW LEVEL COOLING) THE MARINE LAYER.
THE ONSHORE GRADIENT SFO-SAC IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4-5 MB TODAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST WINDS PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY WATERS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LESS STRATUS WAS SEEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMPARED
TO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZES AND A SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER SUPPORT VFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND IF STRATUS IS PLENTIFUL ON THE COAST AND
THE MARINE LAYER REVERSES TO DEEPENING AGAIN THEN EXPECT GREATER CHANCES
FOR AN EVENING RETURN.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE WINDS AND A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER COULD BRING STRATUS IN.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS PERSISTED
ALL DAY YESTERDAY AS A DRY TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGING TODAY
COULD HELP A LITTLE MORE AND MIX OUT THE STRATUS AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EARLY RETURN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 161137
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
437 AM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED SLIGHTLY...YET
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LOW STRATUS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE
MONTEREY...SALINAS VALLEY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONS.
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24HRS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OFFSHORE...WEST OF THE WA/OR
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND THE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MIDWEEK AND
BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH PULLS
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVERHEAD AND BRING A WARMING TREND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...PROFILER DATA FROM BODEGA
BAY AND FORT ORD SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER GETTING A LITTLE COMPRESSED
PRESENTLY DOWN TO 1400 FEET DEEP. LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING ACCOMPANIED
BY SLOWLY INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS (RIDGING) SUPPORTS A LOWER
MARINE LAYER DEPTH FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT LEAST. BY THE EVENING
A VERY WEAK SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL VERY LIKELY LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER BACK UP AGAIN. ADDITIONALLY ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING FURTHER DEEPENING (AND
WEAKENING BY LOW LEVEL COOLING) THE MARINE LAYER.
THE ONSHORE GRADIENT SFO-SAC IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4-5 MB TODAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST WINDS PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY WATERS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LESS STRATUS WAS SEEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMPARED
TO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZES AND A SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER SUPPORTS VFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND IF STRATUS IS PLENTIFUL ON THE COAST AND
THE MARINE LAYER REVERSES TO DEEPENING AGAIN THEN EXPECT GREATER CHANCES
FOR AN EVENING RETURN.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE WINDS AND A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER COULD BRING IN STRATUS IN.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS PERSISTED
ALL DAY YESTERDAY AS A DRY TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGING TODAY
COULD HELP A LITTLE MORE AND MIX OUT THE STRATUS AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EARLY RETURN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 161055
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
355 AM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED SLIGHTLY...YET
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LOW STRATUS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE
MONTEREY...SALINAS VALLEY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONS.
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24HRS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OFFSHORE...WEST OF THE WA/OR
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND THE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MIDWEEK AND
BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH PULLS
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVERHEAD AND BRING A WARMING TREND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS MOVED INTO SFO
AROUND 00Z THEN RETREATED. CURRENTLY STRATUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GOLDEN GATE INTO OAK/HWD BUT THE REST OF THE SFO BAY AREA IS
CLEAR. WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER OF 2000 FEET AND STRONG ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SFO BAY AREA OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS TO
RETURN AFTER 08Z. LATE BURNOFF TIME OF 18Z EXPECTED.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR AFTER 16Z.
VFR AT SNS BY NOON BUT CHANCES ARE MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AT MRY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 160528
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1028 PM PDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...COOL MARINE AIR SURGED
INLAND LAST NIGHT AND TODAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED TO 2000
FEET AND ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WERE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. CARMEL VALLEY`S HIGH OF 64 WAS 23 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
BALMY 87 THERE YESTERDAY. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WENT FROM
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL YESTERDAY TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY. MANY COASTAL AREAS REMAINED UNDER LOW OVERCAST ALL
DAY TODAY INCLUDING THE WESTERN HALF OF SAN FRANCISCO...COASTAL
SAN MATEO COUNTY...POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE...AND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MONTEREY BAY FROM MOSS LANDING SOUTH THROUGH CARMEL.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THESE CLOUDY AREAS DID NOT EVEN CLIMB
OUT OF THE 50S.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW AND A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE CLEARING BY MIDDAY BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE
TWO OR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO SUN. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY
WON`T COOL ANY FURTHER NEAR THE COAST BUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS
FARTHEST INLAND MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE NAM GENERATES ABOUT TWO-TENTHS OF PRECIP IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SAN MATEO COUNTY FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THIS TYPE OF PATTERN OFTEN
PRODUCES COASTAL DRIZZLE IN COASTAL AREAS AND PARTICULARLY IN THAT
AREA. A FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED THE
ADDITION OF PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE FROM WESTERN
SAN FRANCISCO SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TO DAVENPORT. ALSO ADDED SOME
LOW POPS TO THOSE AREAS.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE JUST INSIDE OF
140W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FOUR DAYS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PROJECTED TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK. AS THE TROUGH DRAWS NEARER TO THE
COAST...THE AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO COOL MORE RAPIDLY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO ABOUT 9 DEGREES C BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INLAND TEMPERATURES COOLING FURTHER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...TO VALUES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THAT MUCH COOLING ALOFT OFTEN RESULTS IN THE
MARINE LAYER MIXING OUT WHICH IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THAT CASE...COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE MORE SUN BY MIDWEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL INLAND BY THURSDAY AND
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE STEADILY FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MEAN ONLY SLIGHT WARMING AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS MOVED INTO SFO
AROUND 00Z THEN RETREATED. CURRENTLY STRATUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GOLDEN GATE INTO OAK/HWD BUT THE REST OF THE SFO BAY AREA IS
CLEAR. WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER OF 2000 FEET AND STRONG ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SFO BAY AREA OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS TO
RETURN AFTER 08Z. LATE BURNOFF TIME OF 18Z EXPECTED.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR AFTER 16Z.
VFR AT SNS BY NOON BUT CHANCES ARE MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AT MRY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 AM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
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