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000
FXUS66 KMTR 110528
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
928 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PST WEDNESDAY...AREA TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. SOME COOLING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WAS EVIDENT BY LATE MORNING AS LIGHT SEA-BREEZES COMMENCED. TWO
DAILY RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED TODAY; OAKLAND AIRPORT`S 68 WAS
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2006 AND KING CITY`S 77 WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN
2008. A GRADUAL COOLING AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENS
AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BECOME MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALREADY SEEING SOME INDICATION OF WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS ON THE AREA PROFILERS. FORECAST MODELS AGREE 500
MB HEIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST...ALBEIT WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
WEEK...WILL REMAIN ABOVE FEB NORMAL FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING SUN-
MON TO 580-584 DECAMETERS RANGE PER RECENT GFS & ECMWF OUTPUT.

SEEING CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE WEST COAST LONGWAVE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER
RECENT MODEL FORECASTS...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:28 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 110528
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
928 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PST WEDNESDAY...AREA TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. SOME COOLING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WAS EVIDENT BY LATE MORNING AS LIGHT SEA-BREEZES COMMENCED. TWO
DAILY RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED TODAY; OAKLAND AIRPORT`S 68 WAS
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2006 AND KING CITY`S 77 WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN
2008. A GRADUAL COOLING AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENS
AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BECOME MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALREADY SEEING SOME INDICATION OF WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS ON THE AREA PROFILERS. FORECAST MODELS AGREE 500
MB HEIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST...ALBEIT WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
WEEK...WILL REMAIN ABOVE FEB NORMAL FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING SUN-
MON TO 580-584 DECAMETERS RANGE PER RECENT GFS & ECMWF OUTPUT.

SEEING CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE WEST COAST LONGWAVE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER
RECENT MODEL FORECASTS...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:28 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 110528
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
928 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PST WEDNESDAY...AREA TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. SOME COOLING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WAS EVIDENT BY LATE MORNING AS LIGHT SEA-BREEZES COMMENCED. TWO
DAILY RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED TODAY; OAKLAND AIRPORT`S 68 WAS
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2006 AND KING CITY`S 77 WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN
2008. A GRADUAL COOLING AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENS
AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BECOME MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALREADY SEEING SOME INDICATION OF WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS ON THE AREA PROFILERS. FORECAST MODELS AGREE 500
MB HEIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST...ALBEIT WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
WEEK...WILL REMAIN ABOVE FEB NORMAL FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING SUN-
MON TO 580-584 DECAMETERS RANGE PER RECENT GFS & ECMWF OUTPUT.

SEEING CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE WEST COAST LONGWAVE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER
RECENT MODEL FORECASTS...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:28 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 110510
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
910 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PST WEDNESDAY...AREA TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. SOME COOLING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WAS EVIDENT BY LATE MORNING AS LIGHT SEA-BREEZES COMMENCED. TWO
DAILY RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED TODAY; OAKLAND AIRPORT`S 68 WAS
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2006 AND KING CITY`S 77 WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN
2008. A GRADUAL COOLING AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENS
AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BECOME MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALREADY SEEING SOME INDICATION OF WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS ON THE AREA PROFILERS. FORECAST MODELS AGREE 500
MB HEIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST...ALBEIT WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
WEEK...WILL REMAIN ABOVE FEB NORMAL FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING SUN-
MON TO 580-584 DECAMETERS RANGE PER RECENT GFS & ECMWF OUTPUT.

SEEING CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE WEST COAST LONGWAVE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER
RECENT MODEL FORECASTS...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:49 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:01 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 110510
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
910 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PST WEDNESDAY...AREA TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. SOME COOLING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WAS EVIDENT BY LATE MORNING AS LIGHT SEA-BREEZES COMMENCED. TWO
DAILY RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED TODAY; OAKLAND AIRPORT`S 68 WAS
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2006 AND KING CITY`S 77 WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN
2008. A GRADUAL COOLING AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENS
AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BECOME MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALREADY SEEING SOME INDICATION OF WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS ON THE AREA PROFILERS. FORECAST MODELS AGREE 500
MB HEIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST...ALBEIT WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
WEEK...WILL REMAIN ABOVE FEB NORMAL FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING SUN-
MON TO 580-584 DECAMETERS RANGE PER RECENT GFS & ECMWF OUTPUT.

SEEING CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE WEST COAST LONGWAVE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER
RECENT MODEL FORECASTS...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:49 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:01 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 110510
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
910 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PST WEDNESDAY...AREA TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. SOME COOLING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WAS EVIDENT BY LATE MORNING AS LIGHT SEA-BREEZES COMMENCED. TWO
DAILY RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED TODAY; OAKLAND AIRPORT`S 68 WAS
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2006 AND KING CITY`S 77 WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN
2008. A GRADUAL COOLING AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENS
AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BECOME MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALREADY SEEING SOME INDICATION OF WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS ON THE AREA PROFILERS. FORECAST MODELS AGREE 500
MB HEIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST...ALBEIT WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
WEEK...WILL REMAIN ABOVE FEB NORMAL FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING SUN-
MON TO 580-584 DECAMETERS RANGE PER RECENT GFS & ECMWF OUTPUT.

SEEING CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE WEST COAST LONGWAVE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER
RECENT MODEL FORECASTS...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:49 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:01 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 102349
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
349 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:49 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:26 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 102349
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
349 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:49 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:26 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 102349
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
349 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:49 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:26 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 102301
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
301 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. FEW TO BKN CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL. HZ POSBL THRU 15-18Z TMRW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:26 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 102301
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
301 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. FEW TO BKN CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL. HZ POSBL THRU 15-18Z TMRW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:26 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 102301
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
301 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. FEW TO BKN CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL. HZ POSBL THRU 15-18Z TMRW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:26 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 101747
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:34 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. FEW TO BKN CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL. HZ POSBL THRU 15-18Z TMRW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 101747
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:34 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. FEW TO BKN CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL. HZ POSBL THRU 15-18Z TMRW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 101747
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:34 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. FEW TO BKN CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL. HZ POSBL THRU 15-18Z TMRW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 101735
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
935 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:34 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 03:13 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR LVK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 101113
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
313 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STARTING TO NARROW IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS...THUS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THERE BEFORE LONG.
THIS PATCHY FOG IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF OUR DISTRICT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
WEST COAST BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SPREADS RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS FAR
SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
HOWEVER...HAS A CUT-OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO...GIVEN THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 03:13 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR LVK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 101113
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
313 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STARTING TO NARROW IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS...THUS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THERE BEFORE LONG.
THIS PATCHY FOG IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF OUR DISTRICT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
WEST COAST BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SPREADS RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS FAR
SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
HOWEVER...HAS A CUT-OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO...GIVEN THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 03:13 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR LVK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 101113
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
313 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STARTING TO NARROW IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS...THUS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THERE BEFORE LONG.
THIS PATCHY FOG IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF OUR DISTRICT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
WEST COAST BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SPREADS RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS FAR
SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
HOWEVER...HAS A CUT-OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO...GIVEN THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 03:13 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR LVK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 101048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
248 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STARTING TO NARROW IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS...THUS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THERE BEFORE LONG.
THIS PATCHY FOG IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF OUR DISTRICT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
WEST COAST BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SPREADS RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS FAR
SOUTH AS LOS ANGELES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
HOWEVER...HAS A CUT-OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO...GIVEN THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 PM PST TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 100559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:26 PM PST TUESDAY...THE BIGGEST STORY IS
THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TODAY INCLUDING A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW WITH 85 IN SANTA CRUZ...IMPRESSIVELY WARM FOR FEBRUARY. IT WAS
85 IN MONTEREY WHICH WAS JUST 1 DEGREES SHY OF MATCHING THE
FEBRUARY ALL-TIME WARMEST 86 FEB 20, 1995. IT WAS OUR THIRD
CONSECUTIVE DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN THE BAY
AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. A TOTAL OF 7 NEW RECORDS WERE EITHER
MATCHED OR EXCEEDED TODAY (PLEASE SEE RERMTR OR SXUS76 FOR
DETAILS).

THIS EVENING`S OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
EARLIER TODAY`S...A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTH FROM SOCAL THROUGH NEVADA AND IDAHO ALL THE WAY TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. JUST A BRIEF LOOK OVER TOMORROW`S TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE RECORDS REACHED OVER THE AREA
THUS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ONE MORE
DAY. A FEW RECORDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT EASIER TO REACH
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE STILL PRIMARILY DEALING WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW.

IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS. WX MODELS AGREE A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM REACHES NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS
SONOMA COUNTY. SOME WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH ESSENTIALLY SEEING LARGE MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES THUS
THERE IS A GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRESENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE ANTIPICATED TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 PM PST TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 100559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:26 PM PST TUESDAY...THE BIGGEST STORY IS
THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TODAY INCLUDING A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW WITH 85 IN SANTA CRUZ...IMPRESSIVELY WARM FOR FEBRUARY. IT WAS
85 IN MONTEREY WHICH WAS JUST 1 DEGREES SHY OF MATCHING THE
FEBRUARY ALL-TIME WARMEST 86 FEB 20, 1995. IT WAS OUR THIRD
CONSECUTIVE DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN THE BAY
AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. A TOTAL OF 7 NEW RECORDS WERE EITHER
MATCHED OR EXCEEDED TODAY (PLEASE SEE RERMTR OR SXUS76 FOR
DETAILS).

THIS EVENING`S OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
EARLIER TODAY`S...A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTH FROM SOCAL THROUGH NEVADA AND IDAHO ALL THE WAY TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. JUST A BRIEF LOOK OVER TOMORROW`S TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE RECORDS REACHED OVER THE AREA
THUS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ONE MORE
DAY. A FEW RECORDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT EASIER TO REACH
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE STILL PRIMARILY DEALING WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW.

IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS. WX MODELS AGREE A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM REACHES NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS
SONOMA COUNTY. SOME WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH ESSENTIALLY SEEING LARGE MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES THUS
THERE IS A GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRESENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE ANTIPICATED TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 PM PST TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 100559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:26 PM PST TUESDAY...THE BIGGEST STORY IS
THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TODAY INCLUDING A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW WITH 85 IN SANTA CRUZ...IMPRESSIVELY WARM FOR FEBRUARY. IT WAS
85 IN MONTEREY WHICH WAS JUST 1 DEGREES SHY OF MATCHING THE
FEBRUARY ALL-TIME WARMEST 86 FEB 20, 1995. IT WAS OUR THIRD
CONSECUTIVE DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN THE BAY
AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. A TOTAL OF 7 NEW RECORDS WERE EITHER
MATCHED OR EXCEEDED TODAY (PLEASE SEE RERMTR OR SXUS76 FOR
DETAILS).

THIS EVENING`S OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
EARLIER TODAY`S...A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTH FROM SOCAL THROUGH NEVADA AND IDAHO ALL THE WAY TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. JUST A BRIEF LOOK OVER TOMORROW`S TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE RECORDS REACHED OVER THE AREA
THUS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ONE MORE
DAY. A FEW RECORDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT EASIER TO REACH
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE STILL PRIMARILY DEALING WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW.

IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS. WX MODELS AGREE A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM REACHES NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS
SONOMA COUNTY. SOME WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH ESSENTIALLY SEEING LARGE MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES THUS
THERE IS A GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRESENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE ANTIPICATED TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 PM PST TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 100526
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:26 PM PST TUESDAY...THE BIGGEST STORY IS
THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TODAY INCLUDING A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW WITH 85 IN SANTA CRUZ...IMPRESSIVELY WARM FOR FEBRUARY. IT WAS
85 IN MONTEREY WHICH WAS JUST 1 DEGREES SHY OF MATCHING THE
FEBRUARY ALL-TIME WARMEST 86 FEB 20, 1995. IT WAS OUR THIRD
CONSECUTIVE DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN THE BAY
AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. A TOTAL OF 7 NEW RECORDS WERE EITHER
MATCHED OR EXCEEDED TODAY (PLEASE SEE RERMTR OR SXUS76 FOR
DETAILS).

THIS EVENING`S OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
EARLIER TODAY`S...A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTH FROM SOCAL THROUGH NEVADA AND IDAHO ALL THE WAY TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. JUST A BRIEF LOOK OVER TOMORROW`S TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE RECORDS REACHED OVER THE AREA
THUS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ONE MORE
DAY. A FEW RECORDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT EASIER TO REACH
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE STILL PRIMARLY DEALING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS. WX MODELS AGREE A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM REACHES NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS
SONOMA COUNTY. SOME WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH ESSENTIALLY SEEING LARGE MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES THUS
THERE IS A GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRESENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE ANTIPICATED TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 PM PST TUESDAY...CURRENTLY CLEAR AT THE
SURFACE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 100526
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:26 PM PST TUESDAY...THE BIGGEST STORY IS
THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TODAY INCLUDING A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW WITH 85 IN SANTA CRUZ...IMPRESSIVELY WARM FOR FEBRUARY. IT WAS
85 IN MONTEREY WHICH WAS JUST 1 DEGREES SHY OF MATCHING THE
FEBRUARY ALL-TIME WARMEST 86 FEB 20, 1995. IT WAS OUR THIRD
CONSECUTIVE DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN THE BAY
AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. A TOTAL OF 7 NEW RECORDS WERE EITHER
MATCHED OR EXCEEDED TODAY (PLEASE SEE RERMTR OR SXUS76 FOR
DETAILS).

THIS EVENING`S OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
EARLIER TODAY`S...A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTH FROM SOCAL THROUGH NEVADA AND IDAHO ALL THE WAY TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. JUST A BRIEF LOOK OVER TOMORROW`S TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE RECORDS REACHED OVER THE AREA
THUS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ONE MORE
DAY. A FEW RECORDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT EASIER TO REACH
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE STILL PRIMARLY DEALING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS. WX MODELS AGREE A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM REACHES NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS
SONOMA COUNTY. SOME WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH ESSENTIALLY SEEING LARGE MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES THUS
THERE IS A GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRESENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE ANTIPICATED TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 PM PST TUESDAY...CURRENTLY CLEAR AT THE
SURFACE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 100526
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:26 PM PST TUESDAY...THE BIGGEST STORY IS
THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TODAY INCLUDING A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW WITH 85 IN SANTA CRUZ...IMPRESSIVELY WARM FOR FEBRUARY. IT WAS
85 IN MONTEREY WHICH WAS JUST 1 DEGREES SHY OF MATCHING THE
FEBRUARY ALL-TIME WARMEST 86 FEB 20, 1995. IT WAS OUR THIRD
CONSECUTIVE DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN THE BAY
AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. A TOTAL OF 7 NEW RECORDS WERE EITHER
MATCHED OR EXCEEDED TODAY (PLEASE SEE RERMTR OR SXUS76 FOR
DETAILS).

THIS EVENING`S OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
EARLIER TODAY`S...A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTH FROM SOCAL THROUGH NEVADA AND IDAHO ALL THE WAY TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. JUST A BRIEF LOOK OVER TOMORROW`S TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE RECORDS REACHED OVER THE AREA
THUS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ONE MORE
DAY. A FEW RECORDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT EASIER TO REACH
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE STILL PRIMARLY DEALING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS. WX MODELS AGREE A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM REACHES NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS
SONOMA COUNTY. SOME WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH ESSENTIALLY SEEING LARGE MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES THUS
THERE IS A GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRESENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE ANTIPICATED TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 PM PST TUESDAY...CURRENTLY CLEAR AT THE
SURFACE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 092356
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
356 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 PM PST TUESDAY...CURRENTLY CLEAR AT THE
SURFACE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:23 PM PST TUESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 092356
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
356 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 PM PST TUESDAY...CURRENTLY CLEAR AT THE
SURFACE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:23 PM PST TUESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 092356
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
356 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 PM PST TUESDAY...CURRENTLY CLEAR AT THE
SURFACE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:23 PM PST TUESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 092254
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
254 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LIGHT
WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING FEW-
SCT AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
BY THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 091744
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE WARM DAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
TREND COOLER THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PST TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING YESTERDAY`S
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND COMPRESSING A BIT AS A
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DOES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO OUR
AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN
TODAY HOWEVER THE HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN OBSERVED
YESTERDAY.

THE 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LIGHT
WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING FEW-
SCT AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
BY THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 091719
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
919 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE WARM DAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
TREND COOLER THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PST TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING YESTERDAY`S
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND COMPRESSING A BIT AS A
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DOES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO OUR
AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN
TODAY HOWEVER THE HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN OBSERVED
YESTERDAY.

THE 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 AM PST TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
WEAKENED SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5-10 KT
AFTER 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 091719
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
919 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE WARM DAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
TREND COOLER THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PST TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING YESTERDAY`S
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND COMPRESSING A BIT AS A
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DOES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO OUR
AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN
TODAY HOWEVER THE HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN OBSERVED
YESTERDAY.

THE 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 AM PST TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
WEAKENED SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5-10 KT
AFTER 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 091719
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
919 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE WARM DAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
TREND COOLER THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PST TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING YESTERDAY`S
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND COMPRESSING A BIT AS A
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DOES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO OUR
AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN
TODAY HOWEVER THE HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN OBSERVED
YESTERDAY.

THE 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 AM PST TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
WEAKENED SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5-10 KT
AFTER 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 091322
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
522 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED US TO START THE DAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL YESTERDAY
PARTIALLY DUE TO CALM WINDS. IN ADDITION, THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO OUR EAST ALLOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO DROP AROUND
10 DM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY PLUS 850 MB TEMPS HAVE LOWERED 1-2C.
DESPITE THIS, ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. ONLY REAL QUESTION IS WILL
WE BREAK ANY RECORDS TODAY? UNLIKE YESTERDAY`S SLEW OF RECORD
HIGHS, TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW AT BEST SINCE HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER IN MANY SPOTS. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF RECENT TRENDS HOLD AND THE MODELS
OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING AFTER A DAY OF RECORD HEAT. WE HAVE BEEN
CAUGHT OFF-GUARD WITH A FEW RECENT EVENTS WITH THE HEAT STAYING
ONE EXTRA DAY. RECORD VALUES ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST. BY FRIDAY
THE TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE COAST WITH RAIN STRETCHING FROM
NORCAL UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY AT BEST. LEFT POPS IN THE 15 TO
20% RANGE FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO
THE MID 70S.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OUR REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND TO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
FORCE THE STORM TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH. AGAIN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

RAIN MAY RETURN TO OUR REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE
RAIN IN OUR CWA NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LEADING TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE DAY 8-9 TIME FRAME FOR THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE. HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAINFALL
DURING THAT PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 AM PST TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
WEAKENED SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5-10 KT
AFTER 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 091105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED US TO START THE DAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL YESTERDAY
PARTIALLY DUE TO CALM WINDS. IN ADDITION, THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO OUR EAST ALLOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO DROP AROUND
10 DM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY PLUS 850 MB TEMPS HAVE LOWERED 1-2C.
DESPITE THIS, ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. ONLY REAL QUESTION IS WILL
WE BREAK ANY RECORDS TODAY? UNLIKE YESTERDAY`S SLEW OF RECORD
HIGHS, TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW AT BEST SINCE HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER IN MANY SPOTS. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF RECENT TRENDS HOLD AND THE MODELS
OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING AFTER A DAY OF RECORD HEAT. WE HAVE BEEN
CAUGHT OFF-GUARD WITH A FEW RECENT EVENTS WITH THE HEAT STAYING
ONE EXTRA DAY. RECORD VALUES ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST. BY FRIDAY
THE TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE COAST WITH RAIN STRETCHING FROM
NORCAL UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY AT BEST. LEFT POPS IN THE 15 TO
20% RANGE FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO
THE MID 70S.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OUR REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND TO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
FORCE THE STORM TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH. AGAIN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

RAIN MAY RETURN TO OUR REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE
RAIN IN OUR CWA NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LEADING TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE DAY 8-9 TIME FRAME FOR THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE. HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAINFALL
DURING THAT PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 7:20 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO
FORM AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 7:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELL PERIODS INCREASED TO
17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS IN THE 6 TO 8
FOOT RANGE. SWELL PERIODS NOW IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND INTERVAL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SHORTER THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 091105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED US TO START THE DAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL YESTERDAY
PARTIALLY DUE TO CALM WINDS. IN ADDITION, THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO OUR EAST ALLOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO DROP AROUND
10 DM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY PLUS 850 MB TEMPS HAVE LOWERED 1-2C.
DESPITE THIS, ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. ONLY REAL QUESTION IS WILL
WE BREAK ANY RECORDS TODAY? UNLIKE YESTERDAY`S SLEW OF RECORD
HIGHS, TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW AT BEST SINCE HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER IN MANY SPOTS. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF RECENT TRENDS HOLD AND THE MODELS
OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING AFTER A DAY OF RECORD HEAT. WE HAVE BEEN
CAUGHT OFF-GUARD WITH A FEW RECENT EVENTS WITH THE HEAT STAYING
ONE EXTRA DAY. RECORD VALUES ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST. BY FRIDAY
THE TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE COAST WITH RAIN STRETCHING FROM
NORCAL UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY AT BEST. LEFT POPS IN THE 15 TO
20% RANGE FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO
THE MID 70S.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OUR REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND TO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
FORCE THE STORM TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH. AGAIN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

RAIN MAY RETURN TO OUR REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE
RAIN IN OUR CWA NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LEADING TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE DAY 8-9 TIME FRAME FOR THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE. HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAINFALL
DURING THAT PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 7:20 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO
FORM AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 7:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELL PERIODS INCREASED TO
17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS IN THE 6 TO 8
FOOT RANGE. SWELL PERIODS NOW IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND INTERVAL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SHORTER THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 091105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED US TO START THE DAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL YESTERDAY
PARTIALLY DUE TO CALM WINDS. IN ADDITION, THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO OUR EAST ALLOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO DROP AROUND
10 DM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY PLUS 850 MB TEMPS HAVE LOWERED 1-2C.
DESPITE THIS, ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. ONLY REAL QUESTION IS WILL
WE BREAK ANY RECORDS TODAY? UNLIKE YESTERDAY`S SLEW OF RECORD
HIGHS, TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW AT BEST SINCE HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER IN MANY SPOTS. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF RECENT TRENDS HOLD AND THE MODELS
OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING AFTER A DAY OF RECORD HEAT. WE HAVE BEEN
CAUGHT OFF-GUARD WITH A FEW RECENT EVENTS WITH THE HEAT STAYING
ONE EXTRA DAY. RECORD VALUES ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST. BY FRIDAY
THE TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE COAST WITH RAIN STRETCHING FROM
NORCAL UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY AT BEST. LEFT POPS IN THE 15 TO
20% RANGE FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO
THE MID 70S.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OUR REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND TO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
FORCE THE STORM TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH. AGAIN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

RAIN MAY RETURN TO OUR REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATE
RAIN IN OUR CWA NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LEADING TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE DAY 8-9 TIME FRAME FOR THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE. HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAINFALL
DURING THAT PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 7:20 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO
FORM AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 7:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELL PERIODS INCREASED TO
17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS IN THE 6 TO 8
FOOT RANGE. SWELL PERIODS NOW IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND INTERVAL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SHORTER THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: BELL

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 090456
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
856 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:56 PM PST MONDAY...NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
IT WAS A RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH 12 CLIMATE SITES TYING OR
BREAKING RECORD HIGHS. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS STILL NEARLY 14
MB FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO SFO AND 8 PM TEMPS STILL IN THE 60S.
SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

AFTER TODAYS RECORD BREAKING HEAT...EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES ON TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE WEEK BACK TO NORMAL WITH A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH AROUND FRIDAY. IN GENERAL THE PATTERN
IS UNEVENTFUL. GEM/ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT NEXT RAIN CHANCE BY
LATER NEXT WEEK...AROUND FEB 18-19TH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FIELDS ARE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL... WHICH
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH RECORD HIGH VALUES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ARE COMING IN ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN PLACES LIKE BIG SUR
(86)... THE SONOMA COAST(80 AT SEA RANCH)... AND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA (85 AT PEBBLE BEACH). OFFICIAL RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH OFFICIAL RECORDS BROKEN AT OAKLAND
AIRPORT (79 VS 70)... OAKLAND MUSEUM (78 VS 77)... SAN JOSE (76 VS
75)... MONTEREY (83 VS 81)... AND TIED AT SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN
(74) AS OF 2PM WITH POTENTIALLY MORE RECORDS TO COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY
THE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THESE WINDS COMPRESS AND THUS WARM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. FOR EXAMPLE... OAKLAND AIRPORT SHOT UP TO
79F FROM 68F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION BACKED
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST... INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF WARM
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS HAD PREVIOUSLY
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST... AS IS EVIDENT BY THE
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY NOTED THERE... HOWEVER THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST INLAND LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
BUT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WARMING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUT BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN TODAYS WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LEADING TO GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID... FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE EXTREME NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 7:20 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO
FORM AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 7:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELL PERIODS INCREASED TO
17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS IN THE 6 TO 8
FOOT RANGE. SWELL PERIODS NOW IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND INTERVAL AND
WILL CONTINUIE TO BECOME SHORTER THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN/DRP
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 090456
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
856 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:56 PM PST MONDAY...NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
IT WAS A RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH 12 CLIMATE SITES TYING OR
BREAKING RECORD HIGHS. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS STILL NEARLY 14
MB FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO SFO AND 8 PM TEMPS STILL IN THE 60S.
SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

AFTER TODAYS RECORD BREAKING HEAT...EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES ON TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE WEEK BACK TO NORMAL WITH A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH AROUND FRIDAY. IN GENERAL THE PATTERN
IS UNEVENTFUL. GEM/ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT NEXT RAIN CHANCE BY
LATER NEXT WEEK...AROUND FEB 18-19TH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FIELDS ARE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL... WHICH
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH RECORD HIGH VALUES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ARE COMING IN ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN PLACES LIKE BIG SUR
(86)... THE SONOMA COAST(80 AT SEA RANCH)... AND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA (85 AT PEBBLE BEACH). OFFICIAL RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH OFFICIAL RECORDS BROKEN AT OAKLAND
AIRPORT (79 VS 70)... OAKLAND MUSEUM (78 VS 77)... SAN JOSE (76 VS
75)... MONTEREY (83 VS 81)... AND TIED AT SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN
(74) AS OF 2PM WITH POTENTIALLY MORE RECORDS TO COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY
THE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THESE WINDS COMPRESS AND THUS WARM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. FOR EXAMPLE... OAKLAND AIRPORT SHOT UP TO
79F FROM 68F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION BACKED
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST... INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF WARM
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS HAD PREVIOUSLY
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST... AS IS EVIDENT BY THE
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY NOTED THERE... HOWEVER THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST INLAND LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
BUT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WARMING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUT BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN TODAYS WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LEADING TO GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID... FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE EXTREME NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 7:20 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO
FORM AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 7:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELL PERIODS INCREASED TO
17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS IN THE 6 TO 8
FOOT RANGE. SWELL PERIODS NOW IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND INTERVAL AND
WILL CONTINUIE TO BECOME SHORTER THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PST MONDAY...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN/DRP
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 090326
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
726 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FIELDS ARE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL... WHICH
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH RECORD HIGH VALUES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ARE COMING IN ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN PLACES LIKE BIG SUR
(86)... THE SONOMA COAST(80 AT SEA RANCH)... AND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA (85 AT PEBBLE BEACH). OFFICIAL RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH OFFICIAL RECORDS BROKEN AT OAKLAND
AIRPORT (79 VS 70)... OAKLAND MUSEUM (78 VS 77)... SAN JOSE (76 VS
75)... MONTEREY (83 VS 81)... AND TIED AT SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN
(74) AS OF 2PM WITH POTENTIALLY MORE RECORDS TO COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY
THE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THESE WINDS COMPRESS AND THUS WARM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. FOR EXAMPLE... OAKLAND AIRPORT SHOT UP TO
79F FROM 68F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION BACKED
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST... INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF WARM
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS HAD PREVIOUSLY
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST... AS IS EVIDENT BY THE
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY NOTED THERE... HOWEVER THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST INLAND LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
BUT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WARMING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUT BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN TODAYS WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LEADING TO GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID... FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE EXTREME NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 7:20 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO
FORM AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 7:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELL PERIODS INCREASED TO
17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS IN THE 6 TO 8
FOOT RANGE. SWELL PERIODS NOW IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND INTERVAL AND
WILL CONTINUIE TO BECOME SHORTER THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI/D WEYGAND/BINGAMAN
BEACHES: W PI
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 090326
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
726 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FIELDS ARE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL... WHICH
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH RECORD HIGH VALUES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ARE COMING IN ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN PLACES LIKE BIG SUR
(86)... THE SONOMA COAST(80 AT SEA RANCH)... AND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA (85 AT PEBBLE BEACH). OFFICIAL RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH OFFICIAL RECORDS BROKEN AT OAKLAND
AIRPORT (79 VS 70)... OAKLAND MUSEUM (78 VS 77)... SAN JOSE (76 VS
75)... MONTEREY (83 VS 81)... AND TIED AT SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN
(74) AS OF 2PM WITH POTENTIALLY MORE RECORDS TO COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY
THE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THESE WINDS COMPRESS AND THUS WARM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. FOR EXAMPLE... OAKLAND AIRPORT SHOT UP TO
79F FROM 68F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION BACKED
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST... INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF WARM
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS HAD PREVIOUSLY
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST... AS IS EVIDENT BY THE
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY NOTED THERE... HOWEVER THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST INLAND LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
BUT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WARMING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUT BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN TODAYS WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LEADING TO GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID... FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE EXTREME NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 7:20 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO
FORM AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 7:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELL PERIODS INCREASED TO
17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS IN THE 6 TO 8
FOOT RANGE. SWELL PERIODS NOW IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND INTERVAL AND
WILL CONTINUIE TO BECOME SHORTER THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI/D WEYGAND/BINGAMAN
BEACHES: W PI
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 090326
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
726 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FIELDS ARE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL... WHICH
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH RECORD HIGH VALUES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ARE COMING IN ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN PLACES LIKE BIG SUR
(86)... THE SONOMA COAST(80 AT SEA RANCH)... AND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA (85 AT PEBBLE BEACH). OFFICIAL RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH OFFICIAL RECORDS BROKEN AT OAKLAND
AIRPORT (79 VS 70)... OAKLAND MUSEUM (78 VS 77)... SAN JOSE (76 VS
75)... MONTEREY (83 VS 81)... AND TIED AT SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN
(74) AS OF 2PM WITH POTENTIALLY MORE RECORDS TO COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY
THE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THESE WINDS COMPRESS AND THUS WARM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. FOR EXAMPLE... OAKLAND AIRPORT SHOT UP TO
79F FROM 68F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION BACKED
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST... INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF WARM
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS HAD PREVIOUSLY
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST... AS IS EVIDENT BY THE
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY NOTED THERE... HOWEVER THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST INLAND LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
BUT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WARMING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUT BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN TODAYS WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LEADING TO GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID... FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE EXTREME NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 7:20 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO
FORM AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 7:20 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELL PERIODS INCREASED TO
17 TO 19 SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH SWELL HEIGHTS IN THE 6 TO 8
FOOT RANGE. SWELL PERIODS NOW IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND INTERVAL AND
WILL CONTINUIE TO BECOME SHORTER THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI/D WEYGAND/BINGAMAN
BEACHES: W PI
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 082256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FIELDS ARE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL... WHICH
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH RECORD HIGH VALUES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ARE COMING IN ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN PLACES LIKE BIG SUR
(86)... THE SONOMA COAST(80 AT SEA RANCH)... AND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA (85 AT PEBBLE BEACH). OFFICIAL RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH OFFICIAL RECORDS BROKEN AT OAKLAND
AIRPORT (79 VS 70)... OAKLAND MUSEUM (78 VS 77)... SAN JOSE (76 VS
75)... MONTEREY (83 VS 81)... AND TIED AT SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN
(74) AS OF 2PM WITH POTENTIALLY MORE RECORDS TO COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY
THE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THESE WINDS COMPRESS AND THUS WARM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. FOR EXAMPLE... OAKLAND AIRPORT SHOT UP TO
79F FROM 68F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION BACKED
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST... INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF WARM
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS HAD PREVIOUSLY
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST... AS IS EVIDENT BY THE
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY NOTED THERE... HOWEVER THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST INLAND LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
BUT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WARMING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUT BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN TODAYS WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LEADING TO GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID... FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE EXTREME NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10 AM PST MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH EASTERLIES GENERALLY BLO 10 KTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THROUGH CARQUINEZ STRAIT...AFFECTING KAPC...AS WELL AS KLVK AND
THE SALINAS VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO LIGHT ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE WITH HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR STRATUS AND FOG AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS KMTR. KSNS
MODERATE SE WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 082256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FIELDS ARE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL... WHICH
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH RECORD HIGH VALUES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ARE COMING IN ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN PLACES LIKE BIG SUR
(86)... THE SONOMA COAST(80 AT SEA RANCH)... AND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA (85 AT PEBBLE BEACH). OFFICIAL RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH OFFICIAL RECORDS BROKEN AT OAKLAND
AIRPORT (79 VS 70)... OAKLAND MUSEUM (78 VS 77)... SAN JOSE (76 VS
75)... MONTEREY (83 VS 81)... AND TIED AT SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN
(74) AS OF 2PM WITH POTENTIALLY MORE RECORDS TO COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY
THE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THESE WINDS COMPRESS AND THUS WARM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. FOR EXAMPLE... OAKLAND AIRPORT SHOT UP TO
79F FROM 68F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION BACKED
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST... INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF WARM
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS HAD PREVIOUSLY
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST... AS IS EVIDENT BY THE
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY NOTED THERE... HOWEVER THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST INLAND LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
BUT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WARMING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUT BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN TODAYS WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LEADING TO GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID... FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE EXTREME NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10 AM PST MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH EASTERLIES GENERALLY BLO 10 KTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THROUGH CARQUINEZ STRAIT...AFFECTING KAPC...AS WELL AS KLVK AND
THE SALINAS VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO LIGHT ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE WITH HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR STRATUS AND FOG AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS KMTR. KSNS
MODERATE SE WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 082256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FIELDS ARE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL... WHICH
TYPICALLY COINCIDES WITH RECORD HIGH VALUES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S ARE COMING IN ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN PLACES LIKE BIG SUR
(86)... THE SONOMA COAST(80 AT SEA RANCH)... AND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA (85 AT PEBBLE BEACH). OFFICIAL RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH OFFICIAL RECORDS BROKEN AT OAKLAND
AIRPORT (79 VS 70)... OAKLAND MUSEUM (78 VS 77)... SAN JOSE (76 VS
75)... MONTEREY (83 VS 81)... AND TIED AT SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN
(74) AS OF 2PM WITH POTENTIALLY MORE RECORDS TO COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY
THE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THESE WINDS COMPRESS AND THUS WARM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. FOR EXAMPLE... OAKLAND AIRPORT SHOT UP TO
79F FROM 68F IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION BACKED
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST... INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF WARM
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS HAD PREVIOUSLY
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST... AS IS EVIDENT BY THE
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY NOTED THERE... HOWEVER THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST INLAND LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW
BUT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WARMING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUT BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN TODAYS WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LEADING TO GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID... FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE EXTREME NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10 AM PST MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH EASTERLIES GENERALLY BLO 10 KTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THROUGH CARQUINEZ STRAIT...AFFECTING KAPC...AS WELL AS KLVK AND
THE SALINAS VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO LIGHT ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE WITH HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR STRATUS AND FOG AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS KMTR. KSNS
MODERATE SE WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 081800
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1000 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
WARMTH ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW...INITIATING A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH VALENTINES
DAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH
BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER THIS
MORNING. THIS RIDGE IS DIVERTING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA... LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A WARM...DRY...
STAGNANT AIR MASS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE AT PEAK INTENSITY
TODAY... AND TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND WILL MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT
THAT FACT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 16-18C. RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND EVEN AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 80S
IN PLACES HOWEVER CURRENT RECORD HIGHS IN THE MONTEREY BAY REGION
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FURTHER EXACERBATE WARMING AT THE SURFACE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
SLOPES. BASED ON YESTERDAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES... DECIDED TO
PUSH OUT A FORECAST UPDATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE... FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY
WEATHER... AND GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST STARTING ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES. AT THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND BY FRIDAY RAIN WILL MOVE FROM NORCAL UP TO BC. FOR OUR
REGION, MODELS SHOW AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN HITTING THE
NORTH BAY SO LEFT A MENTION OF THAT IN THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE TROF THE FLOW WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN ZONAL AND A FLAT
RIDGE AT LEAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, SOME INDICATION
THAT MOISTURE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND BRING RAIN
BACK TO OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...NO PUBLIC ZONE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10 AM PST MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH EASTERLIES GENERALLY BLO 10 KTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THROUGH CARQUINEZ STRAIT...AFFECTING KAPC...AS WELL AS KLVK AND
THE SALINAS VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO LIGHT ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE WITH HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR STRATUS AND FOG AROUND KSTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS KMTR. KSNS
MODERATE SE WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 081652
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
852 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
WARMTH ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW...INITIATING A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH VALENTINES
DAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH
BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
588DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER THIS
MORNING. THIS RIDGE IS DIVERTING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA... LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A WARM...DRY...
STAGNANT AIR MASS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE AT PEAK INTENSITY
TODAY... AND TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND WILL MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT
THAT FACT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 16-18C. RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND EVEN AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 80S
IN PLACES HOWEVER CURRENT RECORD HIGHS IN THE MONTEREY BAY REGION
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FURTHER EXACERBATE WARMING AT THE SURFACE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
SLOPES. BASED ON YESTERDAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES... DECIDED TO
PUSH OUT A FORECAST UPDATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE... FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY
WEATHER... AND GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST STARTING ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES. AT THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND BY FRIDAY RAIN WILL MOVE FROM NORCAL UP TO BC. FOR OUR
REGION, MODELS SHOW AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN HITTING THE
NORTH BAY SO LEFT A MENTION OF THAT IN THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE TROF THE FLOW WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN ZONAL AND A FLAT
RIDGE AT LEAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, SOME INDICATION
THAT MOISTURE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND BRING RAIN
BACK TO OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...NO PUBLIC ZONE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4 AM PST MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL THOUGH MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR AT STS EARLY THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT MODELS SHOW EASTERLIES GENERALLY BLO 10 KTS. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THROUGH CARQUINEZ STRAIT...AFFECTING APC...AS WELL AS THE
SALINAS VALLEY THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY SWITCH TO LIGHT ONSHORE
SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS MTR. SNS MODERATE
SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:27 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP  LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: KENNEDY
MARINE: GARCIA
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 081223
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
423 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
WARMTH ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW...INITIATING A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH VALENTINES
DAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH
BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING AS A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN CHARGE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A GREATER THAN 15 MB
DIFFERENCE FROM SFO TO WMC WITH NEARLY 2 MB OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO
SAC. BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD (586 DM AT 500 MB) COMBINED WITH 16C AT 850 MB.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. MANY URBAN
SPOTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST STARTING ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES. AT THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND BY FRIDAY RAIN WILL MOVE FROM NORCAL UP TO BC. FOR OUR
REGION, MODELS SHOW AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN HITTING THE
NORTH BAY SO LEFT A MENTION OF THAT IN THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE TROF THE FLOW WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN ZONAL AND A FLAT
RIDGE AT LEAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, SOME INDICATION
THAT MOISTURE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND BRING RAIN
BACK TO OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...NO PUBLIC ZONE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4 AM PST MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL THOUGH MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR AT STS EARLY THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT MODELS SHOW EASTERLIES GENERALLY BLO 10 KTS. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THROUGH CARQUINEZ STRAIT...AFFECTING APC...AS WELL AS THE
SALINAS VALLEY THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY SWITCH TO LIGHT ONSHORE
SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS MTR. SNS MODERATE
SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:27 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP  LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: KENNEDY
MARINE: GARCIA
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 081129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
329 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
WARMTH ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW...INITIATING A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH VALENTINES
DAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH
BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING AS A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN CHARGE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A GREATER THAN 15 MB
DIFFERENCE FROM SFO TO WMC WITH NEARLY 2 MB OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO
SAC. BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD (586 DM AT 500 MB) COMBINED WITH 16C AT 850 MB.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. MANY URBAN
SPOTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST STARTING ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES. AT THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND BY FRIDAY RAIN WILL MOVE FROM NORCAL UP TO BC. FOR OUR
REGION, MODELS SHOW AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN HITTING THE
NORTH BAY SO LEFT A MENTION OF THAT IN THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE TROF THE FLOW WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN ZONAL AND A FLAT
RIDGE AT LEAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, SOME INDICATION
THAT MOISTURE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND BRING RAIN
BACK TO OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...NO PUBLIC ZONE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE AT THE 1000-2000
FEET MSL LEVEL INTO EARLY EVENING WITH RESULTING LLWS CONCERNS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS KOAK AND KSFO AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THESE STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT AND THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AREA...NEAR THE EAST BAY HILLS AND ALSO IN THE SOUTH BAY FROM
KSJC TO MILPITAS TO KPAO. MOST OF THESE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE AS THE SUNSETS.

FOR MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT MODELS SHOW
EASTERLIES BLO 10 KTS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE SFC
WITH MODERATE LLWS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:27 AM PST MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP  LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN GAPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: GARCIA
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 081105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
WARMTH ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW...INITIATING A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH VALENTINES
DAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH
BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING AS A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN CHARGE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A GREATER THAN 15 MB
DIFFERENCE FROM SFO TO WMC WITH NEARLY 2 MB OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO
SAC. BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD (586 DM AT 500 MB) COMBINED WITH 16C AT 850 MB.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. MANY URBAN
SPOTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST STARTING ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES. AT THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND BY FRIDAY RAIN WILL MOVE FROM NORCAL UP TO BC. FOR OUR
REGION, MODELS SHOW AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN HITTING THE
NORTH BAY SO LEFT A MENTION OF THAT IN THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE TROF THE FLOW WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN ZONAL AND A FLAT
RIDGE AT LEAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, SOME INDICATION
THAT MOISTURE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND BRING RAIN
BACK TO OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...NO PUBLIC ZONE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE AT THE 1000-2000
FEET MSL LEVEL INTO EARLY EVENING WITH RESULTING LLWS CONCERNS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS KOAK AND KSFO AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THESE STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT AND THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AREA...NEAR THE EAST BAY HILLS AND ALSO IN THE SOUTH BAY FROM
KSJC TO MILPITAS TO KPAO. MOST OF THESE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE AS THE SUNSETS.

FOR MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT MODELS SHOW
EASTERLIES BLO 10 KTS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE SFC
WITH MODERATE LLWS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:30 PM PST SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL FINALLY DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COAST MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 081105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
WARMTH ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW...INITIATING A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH VALENTINES
DAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH
BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING AS A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN CHARGE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A GREATER THAN 15 MB
DIFFERENCE FROM SFO TO WMC WITH NEARLY 2 MB OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO
SAC. BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD (586 DM AT 500 MB) COMBINED WITH 16C AT 850 MB.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. MANY URBAN
SPOTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST STARTING ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES. AT THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND BY FRIDAY RAIN WILL MOVE FROM NORCAL UP TO BC. FOR OUR
REGION, MODELS SHOW AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN HITTING THE
NORTH BAY SO LEFT A MENTION OF THAT IN THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE TROF THE FLOW WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN ZONAL AND A FLAT
RIDGE AT LEAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, SOME INDICATION
THAT MOISTURE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND BRING RAIN
BACK TO OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...NO PUBLIC ZONE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE AT THE 1000-2000
FEET MSL LEVEL INTO EARLY EVENING WITH RESULTING LLWS CONCERNS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS KOAK AND KSFO AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THESE STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT AND THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AREA...NEAR THE EAST BAY HILLS AND ALSO IN THE SOUTH BAY FROM
KSJC TO MILPITAS TO KPAO. MOST OF THESE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE AS THE SUNSETS.

FOR MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT MODELS SHOW
EASTERLIES BLO 10 KTS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE SFC
WITH MODERATE LLWS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:30 PM PST SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL FINALLY DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COAST MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 081105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
WARMTH ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW...INITIATING A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH VALENTINES
DAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH
BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING AS A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN CHARGE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A GREATER THAN 15 MB
DIFFERENCE FROM SFO TO WMC WITH NEARLY 2 MB OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO
SAC. BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD (586 DM AT 500 MB) COMBINED WITH 16C AT 850 MB.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. MANY URBAN
SPOTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST STARTING ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES. AT THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND BY FRIDAY RAIN WILL MOVE FROM NORCAL UP TO BC. FOR OUR
REGION, MODELS SHOW AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN HITTING THE
NORTH BAY SO LEFT A MENTION OF THAT IN THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE TROF THE FLOW WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN ZONAL AND A FLAT
RIDGE AT LEAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, SOME INDICATION
THAT MOISTURE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND BRING RAIN
BACK TO OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...NO PUBLIC ZONE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE AT THE 1000-2000
FEET MSL LEVEL INTO EARLY EVENING WITH RESULTING LLWS CONCERNS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS KOAK AND KSFO AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THESE STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT AND THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AREA...NEAR THE EAST BAY HILLS AND ALSO IN THE SOUTH BAY FROM
KSJC TO MILPITAS TO KPAO. MOST OF THESE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE AS THE SUNSETS.

FOR MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT MODELS SHOW
EASTERLIES BLO 10 KTS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE SFC
WITH MODERATE LLWS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       72 IN 1980
NAPA             73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1987
GILROY           78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1954
SALINAS          83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  83 IN 1954
KING CITY        84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:30 PM PST SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL FINALLY DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COAST MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





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