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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301630
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
930 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...IT WAS A MILD NIGHT
WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY AS
MANY AS 10 DEGREES. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...AND WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST TO THE 80S INLAND...COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
MILD.

ALL EYES ARE ON THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 50N/139W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND
ABOUT 475 MILES DUE WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AREA BY LATE
THIS EVENING AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA
ON FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THE COOL UNSTABLE
AIRMASS MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISTRICT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE STORM MOVES TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE STATE.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS AND OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL START ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY IN COORDINATION WITH THE FRONT.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND BRING
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO SAN
JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGING FROM
AROUND ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS URBAN LOCATIONS...WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS LOCALLY RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 AM PDT THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WITH
ARRIVAL OF FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30-HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE THE NEXT 30 HOURS. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER
15Z FRIDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:45 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BUT IN GENERAL LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND BUILDING NW SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DRP/LARRY
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301630
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
930 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...IT WAS A MILD NIGHT
WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY AS
MANY AS 10 DEGREES. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...AND WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST TO THE 80S INLAND...COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
MILD.

ALL EYES ARE ON THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 50N/139W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND
ABOUT 475 MILES DUE WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AREA BY LATE
THIS EVENING AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA
ON FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THE COOL UNSTABLE
AIRMASS MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISTRICT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE STORM MOVES TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE STATE.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS AND OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL START ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY IN COORDINATION WITH THE FRONT.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND BRING
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO SAN
JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGING FROM
AROUND ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS URBAN LOCATIONS...WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS LOCALLY RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 AM PDT THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WITH
ARRIVAL OF FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30-HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE THE NEXT 30 HOURS. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER
15Z FRIDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:45 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BUT IN GENERAL LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND BUILDING NW SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DRP/LARRY
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301139
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
439 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES COOLED NICELY OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEW POINT VALUES MOSTLY IN
THE 40S. CURRENTLY MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED.

MAIN WEATHER PLAYER REMAINS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NW
CURRENTLY SPINNING AROUND 50N/140W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ADVANCE TO OUR CWA BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO OUR ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP 2-4C. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH THINGS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN SOME CASES, TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS AND OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL START ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY IN COORDINATION WITH THE FRONT.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND BRING
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE SF BAY
AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...TO SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY
AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
EVENTS, THE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO WASH OUT EVEN AS IT
EXITS SE MONTEREY COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, EVEN IN
THE USUAL DRY SPOTS IN THE CWA. AFTER A VERY BRIEF BREAK BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE THAN A 30%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY ALTHOUGH ALL
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING SOME LIGHTING
OR EVEN GETTING SMALL HAIL. RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF ON SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS PORTIONS
OF SAN BENITO COUNTY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE RAIN WILL BE
OVER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPRESSIVE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1/3"-2/3" LIKELY FOR ALMOST ALL URBAN
LOCATIONS. FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS LOCALLY 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE --
EVEN OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS AS THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING
HIGHER QPF OVER THAT COUNTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL WARM
BACK UP TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 AM PDT THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WITH
ARRIVAL OF FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30-HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE THE NEXT 30 HOURS. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER
15Z FRIDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM EARLY
FRIDAY. GENTLE SEAS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BUILDING SEAS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP/LARRY
MARINE: DRP/LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301012
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
312 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES COOLED NICELY OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEW POINT VALUES MOSTLY IN
THE 40S. CURRENTLY MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED.

MAIN WEATHER PLAYER REMAINS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NW
CURRENTLY SPINNING AROUND 50N/140W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ADVANCE TO OUR CWA BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO OUR ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP 2-4C. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH THINGS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN SOME CASES, TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS AND OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL START ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY IN COORDINATION WITH THE FRONT.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND BRING
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE SF BAY
AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...TO SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY
AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
EVENTS, THE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO WASH OUT EVEN AS IT
EXITS SE MONTEREY COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, EVEN IN
THE USUAL DRY SPOTS IN THE CWA. AFTER A VERY BRIEF BREAK BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE THAN A 30%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY ALTHOUGH ALL
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING SOME LIGHTING
OR EVEN GETTING SMALL HAIL. RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF ON SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS PORTIONS
OF SAN BENITO COUNTY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE RAIN WILL BE
OVER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPRESSIVE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1/3"-2/3" LIKELY FOR ALMOST ALL URBAN
LOCATIONS. FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS LOCALLY 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE --
EVEN OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS AS THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING
HIGHER QPF OVER THAT COUNTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL WARM
BACK UP TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM EARLY
FRIDAY. GENTLE SEAS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BUILDING SEAS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: PETERSON/LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES...A
WARMING AIRMASS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW COMBINED TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S...WITH EVEN A
FEW LOWER 90S IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ONE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS SET...AT SALINAS WITH A HIGH OF 88.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-150W. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
MOVING THIS TROUGH STEADILY TO THE ESE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...DRIVING A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE AREA ON
HALLOWEEN DAY AND FOLLOWING THAT FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MORE SPECIFICALLY...RAIN MAY
BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA THAT AFTERNOON. THE MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN
FORECASTING A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACTION ACROSS THE SF BAY
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THAT POST-
FRONTAL BREAK FROM PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THE FRONT SLOWING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED
ON THE 00Z NAM...MAY NEED TO EXTEND THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR MORE IN SOME
OF THE WETTER SPOTS. IF THE FRONT SLOWS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST NAM...THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. OROGRAPHICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SO RAIN TOTALS WON`T
VARY AS MUCH AS THEY TYPICALLY DO BETWEEN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
AND INLAND VALLEYS.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. A BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300407
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
907 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES...A
WARMING AIRMASS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW COMBINED TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S...WITH EVEN A
FEW LOWER 90S IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ONE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS SET...AT SALINAS WITH A HIGH OF 88.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-150W. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
MOVING THIS TROUGH STEADILY TO THE ESE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...DRIVING A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE AREA ON
HALLOWEEN DAY AND FOLLOWING THAT FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MORE SPECIFICALLY...RAIN MAY
BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA THAT AFTERNOON. THE MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN
FORECASTING A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACTION ACROSS THE SF BAY
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THAT POST-
FRONTAL BREAK FROM PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THE FRONT SLOWING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED
ON THE 00Z NAM...MAY NEED TO EXTEND THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR MORE IN SOME
OF THE WETTER SPOTS. IF THE FRONT SLOWS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST NAM...THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. OROGRAPHICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SO RAIN TOTALS WON`T
VARY AS MUCH AS THEY TYPICALLY DO BETWEEN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
AND INLAND VALLEYS.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. NONETHELESS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. A BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 292340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARM TEMPS OFF THE KOAK SOUNDING THIS
MORNING ALL TRANSLATED INTO A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME
SPOTS HAVE SEEN SUBSTANTIAL JUMPS IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TUESDAY
(MONTEREY HAS HAD A NEARLY 20 DEGREE INCREASE). BY THE END OF THE DAY,
HIGHS SHOULD END UP MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CLEAR SKIES
ARE FORECAST FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS TO
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS CENTERED ON LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE COAST AND PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. THURSDAY WILL START OUT
FAIRLY QUIET WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AND PICKING UP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. RAIN WILL
START TO IMPACT THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

UNLIKE SOME OF THE PAST EVENTS THIS YEAR, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL NOT WASH OUT SO RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE AREA. TIMING IS STILL BEING FINE TUNED, BUT THE MAIN
BAND SHOULD BE DOWN NEAR SF LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AND TO MONTEREY BAY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS TO CALIFORNIA. COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL
FILTER IN WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
EVEN SOME STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD INDICATED THAT THE LOW WOULD TRACK DIRECTLY OVER
OUR AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST RUNS HAVE THE LOW TRACKING FATHER TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AWAY. HOWEVER, EVEN
IF THE NORTHERLY TRACK DOES VERIFY, SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE TO TRIGGER CELLS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL END SATURDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR LATE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1/3-2/3" FOR MANY URBAN SPOTS WITH LOCALLY 1-2"
POSSIBLE FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS). EVEN INTERIOR SPOTS WHICH HAVE PICKED UP VERY LITTLE
(IN SOME CASES NONE) RAINFALL THE PAST MONTH SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
1/4".

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD BACK TO THE COAST FOR NEXT WORK WEEK
LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS PLUS A WARMING TREND. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR NORTH BAY VALLEY
SPOTS DUE TO DRY AIR, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE OUR
FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON FOR SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

CLIMATE TIDBIT...SAN FRANCISCO HAS HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL JUST
12% OF HALLOWEEN DAYS (JUST 3% FOR GETTING AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN
INCH).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. NONETHELESS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. A BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 292200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARM TEMPS OFF THE KOAK SOUNDING THIS
MORNING ALL TRANSLATED INTO A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME
SPOTS HAVE SEEN SUBSTANTIAL JUMPS IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TUESDAY
(MONTEREY HAS HAD A NEARLY 20 DEGREE INCREASE). BY THE END OF THE DAY,
HIGHS SHOULD END UP MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CLEAR SKIES
ARE FORECAST FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS TO
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS CENTERED ON LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE COAST AND PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. THURSDAY WILL START OUT
FAIRLY QUIET WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AND PICKING UP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. RAIN WILL
START TO IMPACT THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

UNLIKE SOME OF THE PAST EVENTS THIS YEAR, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL NOT WASH OUT SO RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE AREA. TIMING IS STILL BEING FINE TUNED, BUT THE MAIN
BAND SHOULD BE DOWN NEAR SF LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AND TO MONTEREY BAY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS TO CALIFORNIA. COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL
FILTER IN WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
EVEN SOME STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD INDICATED THAT THE LOW WOULD TRACK DIRECTLY OVER
OUR AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST RUNS HAVE THE LOW TRACKING FATHER TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AWAY. HOWEVER, EVEN
IF THE NORTHERLY TRACK DOES VERIFY, SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE TO TRIGGER CELLS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL END SATURDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR LATE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1/3-2/3" FOR MANY URBAN SPOTS WITH LOCALLY 1-2"
POSSIBLE FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS). EVEN INTERIOR SPOTS WHICH HAVE PICKED UP VERY LITTLE
(IN SOME CASES NONE) RAINFALL THE PAST MONTH SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
1/4".

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD BACK TO THE COAST FOR NEXT WORK WEEK
LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS PLUS A WARMING TREND. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR NORTH BAY VALLEY
SPOTS DUE TO DRY AIR, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE OUR
FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON FOR SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

CLIMATE TIDBIT...SAN FRANCISCO HAS HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL JUST
12% OF HALLOWEEN DAYS (JUST 3% FOR GETTING AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN
INCH).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA COUPLED WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR IS
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. A BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 291745
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF SANTA CRUZ AND OVER THE HILLS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS (WHICH GOES WELL WITH THE KOAK SOUNDING SHOWING
2-5C OF WARMING UP TO 850 MB). LITTLE WEATHER ISSUES TO SPEAK OF
FOR TODAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN RETURNS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH THE METRO AREAS ON
FRIDAY. BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA (LIKELY THE SOUTHERN HALF) LATE
ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/SMALL HAIL INTO
THE REGION. IF THE 12Z MODELS KEEP LOCKING ON THIS SOLUTION, POPS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE BOOSTED FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.

CLIMATE TIDBIT -- SAN FRANCISCO HAS HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL JUST 19%
OF THE TIME ON HALLOWEEN DAY, AND JUST 9% OF THE TIME MORE THAN 0.10"
WAS RECORDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO REAL SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY. RIGHT NOW
THE ONLY PATCH OF CLOUDS IS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST WITH HALF MOON
BAY REPORTING A 400 FOOT CLOUD DECK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARM
IN THE HILLS WITH MANY SITES WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE MILD IN THE 50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FAIRLY WARM OCTOBER AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT OF INTEREST. SO STILL TWO
MORE DRY DAYS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER AND CLEAN OUT THE GUTTERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N/150W AND
FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. ONCE AGAIN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW THE COLD TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS CURRENTLY POINTED AT
CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE HAS PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. THE
BODEGA BAY PROFILER CURRENTLY HAS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IWV)
VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH WHICH IS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD THE RIGHT UP-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP.

ANYWAY THE NAM SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SONOMA COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MARCH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO STRONG AND NOT SEEING MUCH WIND OF NOTE. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHEST IN THE NORTH BAY
INITIALLY BUT STILL SEEING 0.25 ON AVERAGE FOR THE BAY AREA WITH
THE FRONTAL RAINS ON FRIDAY. THE REAL QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE
DOES THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW (COLD AIR AND PVA) MOVE ONSHORE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IT OVER THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD BRING IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM KEEP THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR OFFSHORE AS ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DIVES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE...ESSENTIALLY SLOWING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT
PRODUCING LESS THAN IDEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL
BOTH IN THE BAY AREA AND SIERRA. IF THE NAM TRENDS THE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE...SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO
STRONG REASON TO WAVER FROM THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW STILL WELL OFFSHORE. UPSHOT
IS THAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FRIDAY COMMUTE AND ANY OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REALLY WIND DOWN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
WHILE PLACES LIKE NAPA COUNTY WILL TREND MUCH DRIER.

WILL NEED TO THEN MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN
RECENT RAINS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
INVERSIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING SUNNY
AND MILD WEATHER. LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA COUPLED WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR IS
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:36 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291552
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
852 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF SANTA CRUZ AND OVER THE HILLS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS (WHICH GOES WELL WITH THE KOAK SOUNDING SHOWING
2-5C OF WARMING UP TO 850 MB). LITTLE WEATHER ISSUES TO SPEAK OF
FOR TODAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN RETURNS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH THE METRO AREAS ON
FRIDAY. BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA (LIKELY THE SOUTHERN HALF) LATE
ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/SMALL HAIL INTO
THE REGION. IF THE 12Z MODELS KEEP LOCKING ON THIS SOLUTION, POPS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE BOOSTED FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.

CLIMATE TIDBIT -- SAN FRANCISCO HAS HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL JUST 19%
OF THE TIME ON HALLOWEEN DAY, AND JUST 9% OF THE TIME MORE THAN 0.10"
WAS RECORDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO REAL SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY. RIGHT NOW
THE ONLY PATCH OF CLOUDS IS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST WITH HALF MOON
BAY REPORTING A 400 FOOT CLOUD DECK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARM
IN THE HILLS WITH MANY SITES WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE MILD IN THE 50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FAIRLY WARM OCTOBER AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT OF INTEREST. SO STILL TWO
MORE DRY DAYS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER AND CLEAN OUT THE GUTTERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N/150W AND
FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. ONCE AGAIN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW THE COLD TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS CURRENTLY POINTED AT
CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE HAS PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. THE
BODEGA BAY PROFILER CURRENTLY HAS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IWV)
VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH WHICH IS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD THE RIGHT UP-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP.

ANYWAY THE NAM SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SONOMA COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MARCH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO STRONG AND NOT SEEING MUCH WIND OF NOTE. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHEST IN THE NORTH BAY
INITIALLY BUT STILL SEEING 0.25 ON AVERAGE FOR THE BAY AREA WITH
THE FRONTAL RAINS ON FRIDAY. THE REAL QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE
DOES THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW (COLD AIR AND PVA) MOVE ONSHORE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IT OVER THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD BRING IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM KEEP THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR OFFSHORE AS ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DIVES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE...ESSENTIALLY SLOWING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT
PRODUCING LESS THAN IDEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL
BOTH IN THE BAY AREA AND SIERRA. IF THE NAM TRENDS THE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE...SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO
STRONG REASON TO WAVER FROM THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW STILL WELL OFFSHORE. UPSHOT
IS THAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FRIDAY COMMUTE AND ANY OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REALLY WIND DOWN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
WHILE PLACES LIKE NAPA COUNTY WILL TREND MUCH DRIER.

WILL NEED TO THEN MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN
RECENT RAINS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
INVERSIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING SUNNY
AND MILD WEATHER. LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT THERE IS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS AROUND THE
BAY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SQL AND SO
WILL CONTINUE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SFO TO EXPERIENCE SOME LOWERED
CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. KOAK REPORTED BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBY
IN FOG AND WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 16Z FOR THE SAME.
DIFFICULT TO RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY NATURE
AND THE OBSERVATIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING IN
LOWERED CEILINGS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS STILL CONSIDERED LIKELY
FOR THIS MORNING BUT WITH ENOUGH EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE THERE ARE
TRANSIENT AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AROUND THE
BAY...WILL KEEP TEMPO MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 16Z. DRY AND
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA
BREEZE SHOULD TOP OUT AT AROUND 10 KT. OVERNIGHT LOWERED CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN 09-12Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING
THROUGH 16Z ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE APPROACH THEN THE TERMINAL
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWERED CIGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z THU.  CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 291155
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF SANTA CRUZ AND OVER THE HILLS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:03 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...NO REAL SHORT TERM
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TODAY. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY PATCH OF CLOUDS IS OFF THE SAN
MATEO COAST WITH HALF MOON BAY REPORTING A 400 FOOT CLOUD DECK.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARM IN THE HILLS WITH MANY SITES WELL
INTO THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE MILD IN THE 50S. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY WARM OCTOBER AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT OF INTEREST. SO STILL TWO
MORE DRY DAYS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER AND CLEAN OUT THE GUTTERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N/150W AND
FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. ONCE AGAIN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW THE COLD TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS CURRENTLY POINTED AT
CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE HAS PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. THE
BODEGA BAY PROFILER CURRENTLY HAS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IWV)
VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH WHICH IS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD THE RIGHT UP-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP.

ANYWAY THE NAM SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SONOMA COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MARCH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO STRONG AND NOT SEEING MUCH WIND OF NOTE. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHEST IN THE NORTH BAY
INITIALLY BUT STILL SEEING 0.25 ON AVERAGE FOR THE BAY AREA WITH
THE FRONTAL RAINS ON FRIDAY. THE REAL QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE
DOES THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW (COLD AIR AND PVA) MOVE ONSHORE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IT OVER THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD BRING IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM KEEP THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR OFFSHORE AS ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DIVES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE...ESSENTIALLY SLOWING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT
PRODUCING LESS THAN IDEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL
BOTH IN THE BAY AREA AND SIERRA. IF THE NAM TRENDS THE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE...SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO
STRONG REASON TO WAVER FROM THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW STILL WELL OFFSHORE. UPSHOT
IS THAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FRIDAY COMMUTE AND ANY OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REALLY WIND DOWN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
WHILE PLACES LIKE NAPA COUNTY WILL TREND MUCH DRIER.

WILL NEED TO THEN MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN
RECENT RAINS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
INVERSIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING SUNNY
AND MILD WEATHER. LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT THERE IS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS AROUND THE
BAY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SQL AND SO
WILL CONTINUE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SFO TO EXPERIENCE SOME LOWERED
CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. KOAK REPORTED BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBY
IN FOG AND WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 16Z FOR THE SAME.
DIFFICULT TO RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY NATURE
AND THE OBSERVATIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING IN
LOWERED CEILINGS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS STILL CONSIDERED LIKELY
FOR THIS MORNING BUT WITH ENOUGH EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE THERE ARE
TRANSIENT AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AROUND THE
BAY...WILL KEEP TEMPO MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 16Z. DRY AND
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA
BREEZE SHOULD TOP OUT AT AROUND 10 KT. OVERNIGHT LOWERED CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN 09-12Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING
THROUGH 16Z ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE APPROACH THEN THE TERMINAL
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWERED CIGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z THU.  CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 291103
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF SANTA CRUZ AND OVER THE HILLS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:03 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...NO REAL SHORT TERM
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TODAY. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY PATCH OF CLOUDS IS OFF THE SAN
MATEO COAST WITH HALF MOON BAY REPORTING A 400 FOOT CLOUD DECK.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARM IN THE HILLS WITH MANY SITES WELL
INTO THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE MILD IN THE 50S. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY WARM OCTOBER AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT OF INTEREST. SO STILL TWO
MORE DRY DAYS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER AND CLEAN OUT THE GUTTERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N/150W AND
FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. ONCE AGAIN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW THE COLD TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS CURRENTLY POINTED AT
CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE HAS PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. THE
BODEGA BAY PROFILER CURRENTLY HAS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IWV)
VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH WHICH IS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD THE RIGHT UP-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP.

ANYWAY THE NAM SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SONOMA COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MARCH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO STRONG AND NOT SEEING MUCH WIND OF NOTE. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHEST IN THE NORTH BAY
INITIALLY BUT STILL SEEING 0.25 ON AVERAGE FOR THE BAY AREA WITH
THE FRONTAL RAINS ON FRIDAY. THE REAL QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE
DOES THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW (COLD AIR AND PVA) MOVE ONSHORE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IT OVER THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD BRING IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM KEEP THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR OFFSHORE AS ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DIVES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE...ESSENTIALLY SLOWING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT
PRODUCING LESS THAN IDEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL
BOTH IN THE BAY AREA AND SIERRA. IF THE NAM TRENDS THE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE...SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO
STRONG REASON TO WAVER FROM THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW STILL WELL OFFSHORE. UPSHOT
IS THAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FRIDAY COMMUTE AND ANY OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REALLY WIND DOWN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
WHILE PLACES LIKE NAPA COUNTY WILL TREND MUCH DRIER.

WILL NEED TO THEN MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN
RECENT RAINS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
INVERSIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING SUNNY
AND MILD WEATHER. LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE 0430Z FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED COASTAL STRATUS STARTING TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH NEW 00Z NAM MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE WHICH ARE
RAMPED UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE A TEMPO BROKEN GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR KSFO AND
KOAK. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS STILL CONSIDERED LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING THAT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CIGS. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE SHOULD TOP OUT AT AROUND 15 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: DRP/BLIER
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 290608
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1108 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT TUESDAY...A PEAK OUT THE WINDOW
AND GLANCE AT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMP AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE
COAST TO UPPER 70S AROUND THE BAY. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARMEST INLAND AREAS.

BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN FILTERING IN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST THAT HAS CAPTURED THE ATTENTION OF ALL
TRICK OR TREATERS REMAIN ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY PUTTING A DAMPER ON HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE
NORTH BAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL RAIN BAND PROGGED
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICT FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY AFFECTING THE
BAY AREA MORNING COMMUTE AND RESULTING IN WET RUNWAYS ACROSS AREA
AIRPORTS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST BAND
OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25".

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
TRACK OF THIS SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS UP TO
1.00" IN THE HIGHER COASTAL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY SHIFTS INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
REGION-WIDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE 0430Z FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED COASTAL STRATUS STARTING TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH NEW 00Z NAM MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE WHICH ARE
RAMPED UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE A TEMPO BROKEN GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR KSFO AND
KOAK. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS STILL CONSIDERED LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING THAT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CIGS. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE SHOULD TOP OUT AT AROUND 15 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:39 PM PDT TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A COASTAL JET WILL
RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF POINT SUR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DRP/BLIER
MARINE: DRP/BLIER

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 290342
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
842 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT TUESDAY...A PEAK OUT THE WINDOW
AND GLANCE AT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMP AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE
COAST TO UPPER 70S AROUND THE BAY. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARMEST INLAND AREAS.

BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN FILTERING IN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST THAT HAS CAPTURED THE ATTENTION OF ALL
TRICK OR TREATERS REMAIN ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY PUTTING A DAMPER ON HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE
NORTH BAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL RAIN BAND PROGGED
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICT FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY AFFECTING THE
BAY AREA MORNING COMMUTE AND RESULTING IN WET RUNWAYS ACROSS AREA
AIRPORTS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST BAND
OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25".

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
TRACK OF THIS SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS UP TO
1.00" IN THE HIGHER COASTAL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY SHIFTS INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
REGION-WIDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH NAM MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE
A BRIEF STRATUS EVENT LATE TONIGHT. DISCOUNTING HOWEVER...AS BOTH
ALSO INDICATED SIMILARLY LAST NIGHT AND YET SKIES REMAINED CLEAR
DISTRICTWIDE. IF ANYTHING...TREND IS IN A WARMER/DRIER DIRECTION
FOR TOMORROW. MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE EARLY EVENING WINDS AROUND 15 KT THEN
DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A COASTAL JET WILL
MAINTAIN LOCALIZED MODERATE WINDS SOUTH OF POINT SUR TONIGHT. A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DRP/BLIER
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 290054
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
554 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. RAINS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD AND FURTHER INLAND. AT THIS TIME...RAINS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD DOWN THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. LATE IN THE MORNING...RAINS SHOULD TURN TO RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25" CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INITIALLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWEEPS
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS UP
TO 1.00" IN THE HIGHER COASTAL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY SHIFTS INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
REGION-WIDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH NAM MODEL BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A BRIEF
STRATUS EVENT LATE TONIGHT. DISCOUNTING HOWEVER...AS BOTH ALSO
INDICATED SIMILARLY LAST NIGHT AND YET SKIES REMAINED CLEAR
DISTRICTWIDE. IF ANYTHING...TREND IS IN A WARMER/DRIER DIRECTION
FOR TOMORROW. MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE EARLY EVENING WINDS AROUND 15 KT THEN
DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A COASTAL JET WILL
MAINTAIN LOCALIZED MODERATE WINDS SOUTH OF POINT SUR TONIGHT. A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP/BLIER
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 282214
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
314 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. RAINS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD AND FURTHER INLAND. AT THIS TIME...RAINS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD DOWN THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. LATE IN THE MORNING...RAINS SHOULD TURN TO RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25" CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INITIALLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWEEPS
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS UP
TO 1.00" IN THE HIGHER COASTAL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY SHIFTS INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
REGION-WIDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A DRY
AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE WIND TURNS ONSHORE...HOWEVER OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING QUICKLY WIPING OUT
ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
1000Z AND 1400Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS POSSIBLE AT
KMRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A COASTAL JET WILL
MAINTAIN LOCALIZED MODERATE WINDS SOUTH OF POINT SUR TONIGHT. A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE...TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION ON THE UPCOMING SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE...PLANNING TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
AND TAKE A CLOSER LOOK INTO POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER ITEM OF
INTEREST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BAY AREA
AND MOST OF THE STATE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST. SURFACE GRADIENTS SHOW OFFSHORE TRENDS FROM NEVADA TOWARDS
THE GOLDEN GATE WHILE THE LOCAL SFO-SAC IS VERY LIGHT ONSHORE.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING EXPECT ANOTHER IDEAL OCTOBER
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST
LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 CELSIUS BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 17 CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT WEDS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MOST LOCATIONS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

CHANGES IN THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SHOW-UP BY THURSDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE REALLY STAYED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND MODEL TIMED SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T VARIED MUCH. THE SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW LOCATED AROUND 50N/160W WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH
SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT CAN ALREADY BE OBSERVED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS.
ITS THIS ENERGY THAT WE`LL BE TRACKING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORCAL.

THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE OCEAN WATERS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH NORTH BAY RAINS DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY
EVENING OR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST
NCEP MODELS BRING THE INITIAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE BAY AREA FOR
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. RAIN TOTALS DON`T INITIALLY LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT A QUICK SHOT OF 0.10-0.20 IS ENOUGH TO WREAK
HAVOC ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

COLD FRONTAL RAINS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SHOWERS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW IS NON-DESCRIPT AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF PORTLAND
OREGON. THUS EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION OROGRAPHIC RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT. RAIN WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG PVA AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS AS WELL AS 500 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -28 CELSIUS AND 700 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -8 CELSIUS THAT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND IDEAL CLOUD PHYSICS FOR SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY IN TYPICAL NW WIND POST-FRONTAL SET-UP.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY
VALLEY FOG FORMATION GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND QUICKLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE TROUGH
BY THE WEEKEND OF NOV 8TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A DRY
AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE WIND TURNS ONSHORE...HOWEVER OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING QUICKLY WIPING OUT
ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
1000Z AND 1400Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS POSSIBLE AT
KMRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR TODAY AS A RESULT OF A LOCALIZED
COASTAL JET. A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 281609
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
909 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE...TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION ON THE UPCOMING SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE...PLANNING TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
AND TAKE A CLOSER LOOK INTO POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER ITEM OF
INTEREST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BAY AREA
AND MOST OF THE STATE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST. SURFACE GRADIENTS SHOW OFFSHORE TRENDS FROM NEVADA TOWARDS
THE GOLDEN GATE WHILE THE LOCAL SFO-SAC IS VERY LIGHT ONSHORE.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING EXPECT ANOTHER IDEAL OCTOBER
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST
LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 CELSIUS BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 17 CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT WEDS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MOST LOCATIONS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

CHANGES IN THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SHOW-UP BY THURSDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE REALLY STAYED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND MODEL TIMED SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T VARIED MUCH. THE SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW LOCATED AROUND 50N/160W WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH
SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT CAN ALREADY BE OBSERVED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS.
ITS THIS ENERGY THAT WE`LL BE TRACKING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORCAL.

THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE OCEAN WATERS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH NORTH BAY RAINS DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY
EVENING OR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST
NCEP MODELS BRING THE INITIAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE BAY AREA FOR
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. RAIN TOTALS DON`T INITIALLY LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT A QUICK SHOT OF 0.10-0.20 IS ENOUGH TO WREAK
HAVOC ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

COLD FRONTAL RAINS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SHOWERS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW IS NON-DESCRIPT AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF PORTLAND
OREGON. THUS EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION OROGRAPHIC RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT. RAIN WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG PVA AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS AS WELL AS 500 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -28 CELSIUS AND 700 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -8 CELSIUS THAT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND IDEAL CLOUD PHYSICS FOR SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY IN TYPICAL NW WIND POST-FRONTAL SET-UP.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY
VALLEY FOG FORMATION GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND QUICKLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE TROUGH
BY THE WEEKEND OF NOV 8TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE HAZE REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO 5 MILES THROUGH 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR TODAY AS A RESULT OF A LOCALIZED
COASTAL JET. A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281157
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
457 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER ITEM OF
INTEREST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BAY AREA
AND MOST OF THE STATE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST. SURFACE GRADIENTS SHOW OFFSHORE TRENDS FROM NEVADA TOWARDS
THE GOLDEN GATE WHILE THE LOCAL SFO-SAC IS VERY LIGHT ONSHORE.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING EXPECT ANOTHER IDEAL OCTOBER
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST
LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 CELSIUS BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 17 CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT WEDS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MOST LOCATIONS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

CHANGES IN THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SHOW-UP BY THURSDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE REALLY STAYED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND MODEL TIMED SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T VARIED MUCH. THE SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW LOCATED AROUND 50N/160W WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH
SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT CAN ALREADY BE OBSERVED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS.
ITS THIS ENERGY THAT WE`LL BE TRACKING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORCAL.

THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE OCEAN WATERS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH NORTH BAY RAINS DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY
EVENING OR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST
NCEP MODELS BRING THE INITIAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE BAY AREA FOR
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. RAIN TOTALS DON`T INITIALLY LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT A QUICK SHOT OF 0.10-0.20 IS ENOUGH TO WREAK
HAVOC ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

COLD FRONTAL RAINS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SHOWERS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW IS NON-DESCRIPT AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF PORTLAND
OREGON. THUS EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION OROGRAPHIC RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT. RAIN WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG PVA AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS AS WELL AS 500 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -28 CELSIUS AND 700 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -8 CELSIUS THAT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND IDEAL CLOUD PHYSICS FOR SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY IN TYPICAL NW WIND POST-FRONTAL SET-UP.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY
VALLEY FOG FORMATION GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND QUICKLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE TROUGH
BY THE WEEKEND OF NOV 8TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE HAZE REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO 5 MILES THROUGH 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:14 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281041
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
341 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER ITEM OF
INTEREST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BAY AREA
AND MOST OF THE STATE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST. SURFACE GRADIENTS SHOW OFFSHORE TRENDS FROM NEVADA TOWARDS
THE GOLDEN GATE WHILE THE LOCAL SFO-SAC IS VERY LIGHT ONSHORE.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING EXPECT ANOTHER IDEAL OCTOBER
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST
LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 CELSIUS BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 17 CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT WEDS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MOST LOCATIONS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

CHANGES IN THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SHOW-UP BY THURSDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE REALLY STAYED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND MODEL TIMED SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T VARIED MUCH. THE SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW LOCATED AROUND 50N/160W WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH
SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT CAN ALREADY BE OBSERVED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS.
ITS THIS ENERGY THAT WE`LL BE TRACKING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORCAL.

THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE OCEAN WATERS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH NORTH BAY RAINS DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY
EVENING OR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST
NCEP MODELS BRING THE INITIAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE BAY AREA FOR
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. RAIN TOTALS DON`T INITIALLY LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT A QUICK SHOT OF 0.10-0.20 IS ENOUGH TO WREAK
HAVOC ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

COLD FRONTAL RAINS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SHOWERS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW IS NON-DESCRIPT AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF PORTLAND
OREGON. THUS EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION OROGRAPHIC RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT. RAIN WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG PVA AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS AS WELL AS 500 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -28 CELSIUS AND 700 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -8 CELSIUS THAT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND IDEAL CLOUD PHYSICS FOR SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY IN TYPICAL NW WIND POST-FRONTAL SET-UP.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY
VALLEY FOG FORMATION GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND QUICKLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE TROUGH
BY THE WEEKEND OF NOV 8TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF SITES PRIMARILY BETWEEN
12Z AND 17Z TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KMRY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:14 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: DREW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 280539
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1039 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT MONDAY...MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STEADILY CLIMB TO AROUND 16C AND 585 DM RESPECTIVELY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATE TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S FARTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT ON THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. A WELL
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICT ON
FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY AND
SLIDING SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL TURN
TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE BRINGS BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE RAIN THIS
FAR OUT BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY GREET TRICK-OR-TREATERS
ON FRIDAY. ROUGH RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THIS STORM RANGE FROM
0.25-0.75 IN THE VALLEYS TO 0.75-1.50 IN THE HILLS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER
SYSTEM BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF SITES PRIMARILY BETWEEN
12Z AND 17Z TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
VISIBILITITY AT KMRY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING DECREASING WINDS TO THE AREA. A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280404
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
904 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT MONDAY...MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STEADILY CLIMB TO AROUND 16C AND 585 DM RESPECTIVELY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATE TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S FARTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT ON THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. A WELL
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICT ON
FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY AND
SLIDING SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL TURN
TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE BRINGS BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE RAIN THIS
FAR OUT BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY GREET TRICK-OR-TREATERS
ON FRIDAY. ROUGH RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THIS STORM RANGE FROM
0.25-0.75 IN THE VALLEYS TO 0.75-1.50 IN THE HILLS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER
SYSTEM BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE, A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
AT SOME TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KSTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING DECREASING WINDS TO THE AREA. A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 280404
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
904 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT MONDAY...MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STEADILY CLIMB TO AROUND 16C AND 585 DM RESPECTIVELY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATE TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S FARTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT ON THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. A WELL
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICT ON
FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY AND
SLIDING SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL TURN
TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE BRINGS BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE RAIN THIS
FAR OUT BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY GREET TRICK-OR-TREATERS
ON FRIDAY. ROUGH RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THIS STORM RANGE FROM
0.25-0.75 IN THE VALLEYS TO 0.75-1.50 IN THE HILLS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER
SYSTEM BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE, A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
AT SOME TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KSTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING DECREASING WINDS TO THE AREA. A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 280007
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
507 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND REGION-WIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS WE WARM INTO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST
TO THE MID 80S INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN INFLUX OF HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND SWEEP INLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A DEEPER PLUME
OF MOISTURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY TURN TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ELSEWHERE IN THE COMING DAYS. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT
TO PREDICT THIS FAR OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.25"-0.75"
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH 0.75"-1.50" IN THE COASTAL HILLS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE FOR THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER AND WE GAIN OUTPUT FROM OUR
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE, A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
AT SOME TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KSTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING DECREASING WINDS TO THE AREA. A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 272143
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
243 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND REGION-WIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS WE WARM INTO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST
TO THE MID 80S INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN INFLUX OF HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND SWEEP INLAND
FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A DEEPER PLUME
OF MOISTURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY TURN TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ELSEWHERE IN THE COMING DAYS. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT
TO PREDICT THIS FAR OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.25"-0.75"
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH 0.75"-1.50" IN THE COASTAL HILLS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE FOR THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER AND WE GAIN OUTPUT FROM OUR
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT MONDAY...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SNEAKING IN OVER A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. OTHERWISE, A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT SOME TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO GROUND FOG. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH
10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING DECREASING WINDS TO THE AREA. A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:14 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY A COOL START
TO THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AND 50S. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST TRACK LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY AND NO UPDATED ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:24 AM PDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS WILL
BE ON POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT BY FRIDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STAY IN CONTROL TODAY THROUGH WEDS WITH PICTURE PERFECT AUTUMN
WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE OR
NO MARINE CLOUDS/FOG TO CONTEND WITH.

AFTER QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OUT NEAR THE DATELINE AND UP NEAR 60N. THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY SOLID AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS FEATURE
TOWARDS THE NORCAL COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS.

CONFIDENCE IS BOOSTED BY HOW CONSISTENT THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN
WITH CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM AND GFS MODELS AS WELL.
THE ECMWF SHOWED THIS FEATURE 240 HOURS OUT AND HAS MORE OR LESS
STUCK WITH THE SOLUTION. CURRENT DETAILS WOULD BRING INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE BAY AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR MORE
LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. WERE STILL ALMOST 5 DAYS OUT SO OBVIOUSLY
TIMING OF FRONT WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. AT FIRST GLANCE NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING
WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE GOOD RAIN
PRODUCER WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT THAT WILL ALLOW FRONTAL
RAINS TO TURN TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ECMWF CURRENTLY HAS 500 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -28 CELSIUS WITH 700
MB TEMPS AROUND -8 BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE STEEP
LAPSE RATES IDEAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.
DYNAMICS SHOULD TRUMP ANY OROGRAPHICS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
UNIFORM RAIN TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.25-0.75 IN THE VALLEYS WITH
0.75-1.50 FOR THE HILLS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REBUILDS WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
BUILDS A 590 DM HIGH NEAR POINT CONCEPTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS
REBOUNDING BACK TO 16 CELSIUS. SO THE STORM LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS
TO BE A ONE HIT WONDER. STILL ENOUGH TIME FOR THINGS TO FALL
APART SO WILL CONTINUE MONITOR MODEL TRENDS BUT THINGS LOOK
PROMISING IN TERMS OF GETTING AN EARLY SEASON RAIN PRODUCER THAT
THE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT MONDAY...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SNEAKING IN OVER A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. OTHERWISE, A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT SOME TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO GROUND FOG. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH
10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:14 AM PDT MONDAY...AN ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING DECREASING WINDS TO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

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