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000
FXUS66 KMTR 290140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY NEAR GONZALES AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF HOLLISTER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
PULLS TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA TO AN END. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND ADDED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DROPPED AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS COOLED
BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST OF THE COAST BUT CONTINUE TO CLING TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK AND MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 1500
FT SO CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AND VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE
COAST AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY YET. AS A
RESULT CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN SPREADING INTO MRY AND SNS
THAN YESTERDAY. IFR AFTER 04Z AT MRY AND 05Z AT SNS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS/R CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 290140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY NEAR GONZALES AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF HOLLISTER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
PULLS TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA TO AN END. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND ADDED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DROPPED AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS COOLED
BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST OF THE COAST BUT CONTINUE TO CLING TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK AND MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 1500
FT SO CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AND VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE
COAST AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY YET. AS A
RESULT CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN SPREADING INTO MRY AND SNS
THAN YESTERDAY. IFR AFTER 04Z AT MRY AND 05Z AT SNS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS/R CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 290001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...KMUX
RADAR DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND...YET WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE
COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST OF THE COAST BUT CONTINUE TO CLING TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK AND MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 1500
FT SO CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AND VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE
COAST AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY YET. AS A
RESULT CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN SPREADING INTO MRY AND SNS
THAN YESTERDAY. IFR AFTER 04Z AT MRY AND 05Z AT SNS.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS/R CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 290001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...KMUX
RADAR DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND...YET WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE
COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST OF THE COAST BUT CONTINUE TO CLING TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK AND MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 1500
FT SO CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AND VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE
COAST AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY YET. AS A
RESULT CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN SPREADING INTO MRY AND SNS
THAN YESTERDAY. IFR AFTER 04Z AT MRY AND 05Z AT SNS.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS/R CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282139
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...KMUX
RADAR DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND...YET WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE
COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282139
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...KMUX
RADAR DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND...YET WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE
COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281834
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1134 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER SMALL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281834
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1134 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER SMALL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281247
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281247
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 281147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT MONDAY...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...THE MARINE LAYER RE-DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO 1200 FEET. IFR TO MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSFO AND KSJC. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY NO CIGS AT KSFO...BUT THEY`RE IN THE
WINGS. CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY`LL EVENTUALLY FILL IN SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 4 HR TEMPO OF CIGS. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IT APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT THERE MAY BE
MORE CIGS AROUND THE APPROACH THAN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SMB IS
STILL REPORTING CLR. WILL FORECAST PATCHY CIGS THROUGH 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT MONDAY...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...THE MARINE LAYER RE-DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO 1200 FEET. IFR TO MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSFO AND KSJC. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY NO CIGS AT KSFO...BUT THEY`RE IN THE
WINGS. CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY`LL EVENTUALLY FILL IN SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 4 HR TEMPO OF CIGS. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IT APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT THERE MAY BE
MORE CIGS AROUND THE APPROACH THAN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SMB IS
STILL REPORTING CLR. WILL FORECAST PATCHY CIGS THROUGH 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 280958
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 280958
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280544
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1044 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 280544
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1044 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 280337
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST OVER THE WATERS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES AT SFO THROUGH 03Z. STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST BUT
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA UNTIL AFTER THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE STRATUS MAKES IT INTO THE SFO
BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK AND MARINE LAYER
IS SHALLOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z. STRATUS MAY RETURN AFTER 10Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT MAY STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND POINT PINOS IN THE PAST HOUR. IFR SPREADING INTO MRY AFTER
03Z AND SNS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY COAST. LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED AS RECENTLY AS 21Z BUT NONE
SINCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280337
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST OVER THE WATERS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES AT SFO THROUGH 03Z. STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST BUT
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA UNTIL AFTER THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE STRATUS MAKES IT INTO THE SFO
BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK AND MARINE LAYER
IS SHALLOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z. STRATUS MAY RETURN AFTER 10Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT MAY STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND POINT PINOS IN THE PAST HOUR. IFR SPREADING INTO MRY AFTER
03Z AND SNS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY COAST. LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED AS RECENTLY AS 21Z BUT NONE
SINCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 280008
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
508 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
SHIFT HAS BEEN CONVECTION ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND
COASTAL WATERS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
HAS LEAD TO POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL, THE
STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN OVER THE WATER -- IN FACT A FEW CELLS
THERE HAVE TOPPED 60 DBZ AND HAVE HAD FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAS BEEN WEAKER AND GENERALLY ENDED BY NOON.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA/WATERS OVERNIGHT, SO EVEN THOUGH RIGHT NOW SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN MONTEREY/SAN BENITO DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
ENOUGH PULLING OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AT THIS TIME. EVENING CREW
CAN MAKE THAT CALL BASED ON HOW THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
UNFOLDS. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UP TO
AROUND POINT REYES. AT THAT LATITUDE, THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.

DID MAKE ONE NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST BY ADDING
SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA
AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR WORKS UP FROM THE SOUTH. NAM GUIDANCE SEEMED
TO DO A GOOD JOB WITH TODAY`S ACTIVITY, SO LEANED TOWARD THAT FOR
THE FORECAST. MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS OF 30-PLUS WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE
ODDS OF SHOWERS GETTING UP TO SF BAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AS THE MAIN
POOL OF 30-PLUS VALUES GETS UP TO THE NORTH BAY. OBVIOUSLY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FRONT AND CENTER DUE TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES.

GENERAL FLOW WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SW SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO END ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SAME
TIME AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND BACK TO INTO
CALIFORNIA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST OVER THE WATERS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES AT SFO THROUGH 03Z. STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST BUT
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA UNTIL AFTER THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE STRATUS MAKES IT INTO THE SFO
BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK AND MARINE LAYER
IS SHALLOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z. STRATUS MAY RETURN AFTER 10Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT MAY STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND POINT PINOS IN THE PAST HOUR. IFR SPREADING INTO MRY AFTER
03Z AND SNS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY COAST. LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED AS RECENTLY AS 21Z BUT NONE
SINCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 272150
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
SHIFT HAS BEEN CONVECTION ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND
COASTAL WATERS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
HAS LEAD TO POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL, THE
STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN OVER THE WATER -- IN FACT A FEW CELLS
THERE HAVE TOPPED 60 DBZ AND HAVE HAD FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAS BEEN WEAKER AND GENERALLY ENDED BY NOON.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA/WATERS OVERNIGHT, SO EVEN THOUGH RIGHT NOW SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN MONTEREY/SAN BENITO DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
ENOUGH PULLING OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AT THIS TIME. EVENING CREW
CAN MAKE THAT CALL BASED ON HOW THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
UNFOLDS. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UP TO
AROUND POINT REYES. AT THAT LATITUDE, THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.

DID MAKE ONE NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST BY ADDING
SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA
AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR WORKS UP FROM THE SOUTH. NAM GUIDANCE SEEMED
TO DO A GOOD JOB WITH TODAY`S ACTIVITY, SO LEANED TOWARD THAT FOR
THE FORECAST. MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS OF 30-PLUS WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE
ODDS OF SHOWERS GETTING UP TO SF BAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AS THE MAIN
POOL OF 30-PLUS VALUES GETS UP TO THE NORTH BAY. OBVIOUSLY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FRONT AND CENTER DUE TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES.

GENERAL FLOW WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SW SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO END ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SAME
TIME AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND BACK TO INTO
CALIFORNIA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MOSTLY VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING BACK IN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:19 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 272150
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
SHIFT HAS BEEN CONVECTION ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND
COASTAL WATERS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
HAS LEAD TO POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL, THE
STRONGEST CELLS HAVE BEEN OVER THE WATER -- IN FACT A FEW CELLS
THERE HAVE TOPPED 60 DBZ AND HAVE HAD FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAS BEEN WEAKER AND GENERALLY ENDED BY NOON.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA/WATERS OVERNIGHT, SO EVEN THOUGH RIGHT NOW SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN MONTEREY/SAN BENITO DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
ENOUGH PULLING OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AT THIS TIME. EVENING CREW
CAN MAKE THAT CALL BASED ON HOW THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
UNFOLDS. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UP TO
AROUND POINT REYES. AT THAT LATITUDE, THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.

DID MAKE ONE NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST BY ADDING
SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA
AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR WORKS UP FROM THE SOUTH. NAM GUIDANCE SEEMED
TO DO A GOOD JOB WITH TODAY`S ACTIVITY, SO LEANED TOWARD THAT FOR
THE FORECAST. MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS OF 30-PLUS WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE
ODDS OF SHOWERS GETTING UP TO SF BAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AS THE MAIN
POOL OF 30-PLUS VALUES GETS UP TO THE NORTH BAY. OBVIOUSLY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FRONT AND CENTER DUE TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES.

GENERAL FLOW WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SW SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP TO END ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SAME
TIME AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND BACK TO INTO
CALIFORNIA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MOSTLY VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING BACK IN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:19 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271725
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1025 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION EQUIPMENT SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR CWA THIS MORNING. MAIN ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN OVER
MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND PARTS OF THE EAST
BAY. GENERAL MOVEMENT IS TO THE NE, SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE RADAR THIS MORNING AS ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH MOVES TO THE
NORTH. POSSIBLE THAT THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO COOLING TODAY,
SO MAY BE ISSUING A TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING IN TO
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN UP TO THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS OF
30-35 LATE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH VERY LIMITED CIN. WILL
BE ADDING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
DUE TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST OVERNIGHT. KMUX RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BENEATH THESE SHOWERS AND SO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THIS
UNFOLDING SITUATION...BUT THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TO BE
MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL COAST
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE ECMWF KEEPS MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NAM THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERIODS
BEYOND TODAY AND INSTEAD WAIT TO SEE HOW EVENTS UNFOLD TODAY. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY...THEN IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
GOOD IDEA TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY
THEN AND END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MOSTLY VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING BACK IN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:19 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271725
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1025 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION EQUIPMENT SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR CWA THIS MORNING. MAIN ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN OVER
MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND PARTS OF THE EAST
BAY. GENERAL MOVEMENT IS TO THE NE, SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE RADAR THIS MORNING AS ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH MOVES TO THE
NORTH. POSSIBLE THAT THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO COOLING TODAY,
SO MAY BE ISSUING A TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING IN TO
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN UP TO THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS OF
30-35 LATE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH VERY LIMITED CIN. WILL
BE ADDING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
DUE TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST OVERNIGHT. KMUX RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BENEATH THESE SHOWERS AND SO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THIS
UNFOLDING SITUATION...BUT THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TO BE
MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL COAST
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE ECMWF KEEPS MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NAM THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERIODS
BEYOND TODAY AND INSTEAD WAIT TO SEE HOW EVENTS UNFOLD TODAY. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY...THEN IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
GOOD IDEA TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY
THEN AND END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MOSTLY VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING BACK IN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:19 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION EQUIPMENT SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR CWA THIS MORNING. MAIN ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN OVER
MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND PARTS OF THE EAST
BAY. GENERAL MOVEMENT IS TO THE NE, SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE RADAR THIS MORNING AS ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH MOVES TO THE
NORTH. POSSIBLE THAT THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO COOLING TODAY,
SO MAY BE ISSUING A TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING IN TO
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN UP TO THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS OF
30-35 LATE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH VERY LIMITED CIN. WILL
BE ADDING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
DUE TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST OVERNIGHT. KMUX RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BENEATH THESE SHOWERS AND SO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THIS
UNFOLDING SITUATION...BUT THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TO BE
MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL COAST
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE ECMWF KEEPS MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NAM THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERIODS
BEYOND TODAY AND INSTEAD WAIT TO SEE HOW EVENTS UNFOLD TODAY. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY...THEN IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
GOOD IDEA TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY
THEN AND END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCING SCATTERED-ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS MORE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA MAKING IT HARD TO SEE WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ON SATELLITE.
THE VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER LARGE SWATH OF LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE COAST UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE
HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE HAMPERING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH THE OBS CLOSELY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...GOING A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MORNING WITH
REGARDS TO STRATUS. MOSTLY VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT. CONF IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS THIS MORNING. IF CIGS
DEVELOP THEY WILL BE AOB 1K FT. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION EQUIPMENT SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR CWA THIS MORNING. MAIN ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN OVER
MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND PARTS OF THE EAST
BAY. GENERAL MOVEMENT IS TO THE NE, SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE RADAR THIS MORNING AS ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH MOVES TO THE
NORTH. POSSIBLE THAT THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO COOLING TODAY,
SO MAY BE ISSUING A TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING IN TO
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN UP TO THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS OF
30-35 LATE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH VERY LIMITED CIN. WILL
BE ADDING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
DUE TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST OVERNIGHT. KMUX RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BENEATH THESE SHOWERS AND SO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THIS
UNFOLDING SITUATION...BUT THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TO BE
MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL COAST
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE ECMWF KEEPS MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NAM THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERIODS
BEYOND TODAY AND INSTEAD WAIT TO SEE HOW EVENTS UNFOLD TODAY. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY...THEN IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
GOOD IDEA TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY
THEN AND END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCING SCATTERED-ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS MORE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA MAKING IT HARD TO SEE WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ON SATELLITE.
THE VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER LARGE SWATH OF LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE COAST UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE
HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE HAMPERING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH THE OBS CLOSELY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...GOING A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MORNING WITH
REGARDS TO STRATUS. MOSTLY VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT. CONF IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS THIS MORNING. IF CIGS
DEVELOP THEY WILL BE AOB 1K FT. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271135
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
435 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST OVERNIGHT. KMUX RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BENEATH THESE SHOWERS AND SO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THIS
UNFOLDING SITUATION...BUT THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TO BE
MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL COAST
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE ECMWF KEEPS MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NAM THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERIODS
BEYOND TODAY AND INSTEAD WAIT TO SEE HOW EVENTS UNFOLD TODAY. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY...THEN IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
GOOD IDEA TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY
THEN AND END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCING SCATTERED-ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS MORE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA MAKING IT HARD TO SEE WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ON SATELLITE.
THE VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER LARGE SWATH OF LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE COAST UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE
HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE HAMPERING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH THE OBS CLOSELY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...GOING A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MORNING WITH
REGARDS TO STRATUS. MOSTLY VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT. CONF IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS THIS MORNING. IF CIGS
DEVELOP THEY WILL BE AOB 1K FT. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 271135
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
435 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST OVERNIGHT. KMUX RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BENEATH THESE SHOWERS AND SO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THIS
UNFOLDING SITUATION...BUT THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TO BE
MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL COAST
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE ECMWF KEEPS MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NAM THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERIODS
BEYOND TODAY AND INSTEAD WAIT TO SEE HOW EVENTS UNFOLD TODAY. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY...THEN IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
GOOD IDEA TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY
THEN AND END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRODUCING SCATTERED-ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS MORE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA MAKING IT HARD TO SEE WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ON SATELLITE.
THE VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER LARGE SWATH OF LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE COAST UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE
HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE HAMPERING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH THE OBS CLOSELY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...GOING A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MORNING WITH
REGARDS TO STRATUS. MOSTLY VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT. CONF IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS THIS MORNING. IF CIGS
DEVELOP THEY WILL BE AOB 1K FT. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 271012
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
312 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST OVERNIGHT. KMUX RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BENEATH THESE SHOWERS AND SO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THIS
UNFOLDING SITUATION...BUT THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TO BE
MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL COAST
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE ECMWF KEEPS MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NAM THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERIODS
BEYOND TODAY AND INSTEAD WAIT TO SEE HOW EVENTS UNFOLD TODAY. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY...THEN IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
GOOD IDEA TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY
THEN AND END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS
TRENDING MORE NORTHWEST AS THE N-S GRADIENT WEAKENS. COUPLED WITH
AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF
BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AFTER 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 7:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED 175
MILES SW OF MONTEREY. THIS IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL ZONES
BUT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE SOMEWHERE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271012
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
312 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST OVERNIGHT. KMUX RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR BENEATH THESE SHOWERS AND SO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THIS
UNFOLDING SITUATION...BUT THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TO BE
MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL COAST
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE ECMWF KEEPS MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NAM THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERIODS
BEYOND TODAY AND INSTEAD WAIT TO SEE HOW EVENTS UNFOLD TODAY. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY...THEN IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
GOOD IDEA TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY
THEN AND END CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ALSO GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS
TRENDING MORE NORTHWEST AS THE N-S GRADIENT WEAKENS. COUPLED WITH
AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF
BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AFTER 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 7:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED 175
MILES SW OF MONTEREY. THIS IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL ZONES
BUT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE SOMEWHERE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 270531
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1031 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST...MAINLY NEAR THE OCEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
EVENING AND A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF
POINT CONCEPTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS ADVECTING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SANTA BARBARA
SINCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MOVING GRADUALLY NORTH AND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM THERE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT THE NAM MAY BE POORLY
INITIALIZED OVER THE OCEAN...SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INLAND IF THERE APPEARS TO BE ANY CHANCE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT
AS OF NOW...BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...THAT APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY AND THE MOST OUR AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE IS ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS ALOFT (ABOVE 900 MB) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. YET
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WERE COOLER TODAY...MAINLY NEAR THE
OCEAN AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY WHERE HIGHS WERE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TODAY`S COOLING WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER (UP TO ABOUT 1500
FEET CURRENTLY AT FORT ORD) AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN
WITH TODAY`S COOLING...TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS REMAINED ABOVE
NORMAL AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEYS. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND SO WE CAN EXPECTED CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS
INLAND...ALTHOUGH WITH A CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT COOLING
IF MARINE AIR MAKES ITS WAY A BIT FURTHER INLAND AS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS
TRENDING MORE NORTHWEST AS THE N-S GRADIENT WEAKENS. COUPLED WITH
AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF
BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AFTER 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 7:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED 175
MILES SW OF MONTEREY. THIS IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL ZONES
BUT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE SOMEWHERE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 270531
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1031 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST...MAINLY NEAR THE OCEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
EVENING AND A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF
POINT CONCEPTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS ADVECTING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SANTA BARBARA
SINCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MOVING GRADUALLY NORTH AND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM THERE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT THE NAM MAY BE POORLY
INITIALIZED OVER THE OCEAN...SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INLAND IF THERE APPEARS TO BE ANY CHANCE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT
AS OF NOW...BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...THAT APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY AND THE MOST OUR AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE IS ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS ALOFT (ABOVE 900 MB) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. YET
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WERE COOLER TODAY...MAINLY NEAR THE
OCEAN AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY WHERE HIGHS WERE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TODAY`S COOLING WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER (UP TO ABOUT 1500
FEET CURRENTLY AT FORT ORD) AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN
WITH TODAY`S COOLING...TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS REMAINED ABOVE
NORMAL AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEYS. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND SO WE CAN EXPECTED CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS
INLAND...ALTHOUGH WITH A CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT COOLING
IF MARINE AIR MAKES ITS WAY A BIT FURTHER INLAND AS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS
TRENDING MORE NORTHWEST AS THE N-S GRADIENT WEAKENS. COUPLED WITH
AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF
BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AFTER 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 7:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED 175
MILES SW OF MONTEREY. THIS IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL ZONES
BUT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE SOMEWHERE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 270340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
840 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST...MAINLY NEAR THE OCEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
EVENING AND A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF
POINT CONCEPTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS ADVECTING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SANTA BARBARA
SINCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MOVING GRADUALLY NORTH AND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM THERE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT THE NAM MAY BE POORLY
INITIALIZED OVER THE OCEAN...SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INLAND IF THERE APPEARS TO BE ANY CHANCE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT
AS OF NOW...BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...THAT APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY AND THE MOST OUR AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE IS ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS ALOFT (ABOVE 900 MB) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. YET
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WERE COOLER TODAY...MAINLY NEAR THE
OCEAN AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY WHERE HIGHS WERE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TODAY`S COOLING WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER (UP TO ABOUT 1500
FEET CURRENTLY AT FORT ORD) AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN
WITH TODAY`S COOLING...TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS REMAINED ABOVE
NORMAL AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEYS. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND SO WE CAN EXPECTED CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS
INLAND...ALTHOUGH WITH A CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT COOLING
IF MARINE AIR MAKES ITS WAY A BIT FURTHER INLAND AS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO
THE COAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO SFO AND
THE APPROACH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE VFR
DURING THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TRENDING MORE
NORTHWEST AND COUPLED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE
MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA
AFTER 09Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN MRY
BAY. IFR AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 7:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED 175
MILES SW OF MONTEREY. THIS IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL ZONES
BUT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE SOMEWHERE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 270340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
840 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST...MAINLY NEAR THE OCEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
EVENING AND A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF
POINT CONCEPTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS ADVECTING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SANTA BARBARA
SINCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MOVING GRADUALLY NORTH AND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM THERE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT THE NAM MAY BE POORLY
INITIALIZED OVER THE OCEAN...SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INLAND IF THERE APPEARS TO BE ANY CHANCE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT
AS OF NOW...BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...THAT APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY AND THE MOST OUR AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE IS ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS ALOFT (ABOVE 900 MB) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. YET
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WERE COOLER TODAY...MAINLY NEAR THE
OCEAN AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY WHERE HIGHS WERE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TODAY`S COOLING WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER (UP TO ABOUT 1500
FEET CURRENTLY AT FORT ORD) AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN
WITH TODAY`S COOLING...TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS REMAINED ABOVE
NORMAL AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEYS. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND SO WE CAN EXPECTED CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS
INLAND...ALTHOUGH WITH A CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT COOLING
IF MARINE AIR MAKES ITS WAY A BIT FURTHER INLAND AS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO
THE COAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO SFO AND
THE APPROACH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE VFR
DURING THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TRENDING MORE
NORTHWEST AND COUPLED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE
MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA
AFTER 09Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN MRY
BAY. IFR AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 7:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED 175
MILES SW OF MONTEREY. THIS IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL ZONES
BUT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE SOMEWHERE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 270247
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
747 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING ALONG THE MONTEREY
COASTLINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND. ALSO APPARENT
ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ARE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE...MOVING CLOCKWISE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS PUSHING TOWARDS THE MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COASTLINE. THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A VORT MAX CENTERED AT 32N
129W WHICH IS LIFTING THE MONSOON MOISTURE ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SO FAR TODAY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 11 DEGREES
COOLER AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY
WARM WITH SANTA ROSA REPORTING 89...LIVERMORE 96...SAN JOSE 85 AND
MONTEREY 71 DEGREES. THE SEA BREEZE IS THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR TO TOADY`S COOLER TEMPERATURES. SO FAR THE SEA BREEZE IS
12KT AT KSFO...14KT AT KOAK AND KSNS AND 8 KT AT KMRY.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ADVECT THE A FORE MENTIONED MONSOON MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FORM
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES 240 MILES WEST
OF SANTA BARBARA. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STRIKES IS MOVING NORTH...PARALLELING THE COAST...SO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LIFTING MECHANISM (VORT MAX) WILL
PASS OVER LAND SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER OFF OF THE COAST. BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS MOISTURE FOR ANY HINTS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO
THE COAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO SFO AND
THE APPROACH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE VFR
DURING THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TRENDING MORE
NORTHWEST AND COUPLED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE
MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA
AFTER 09Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN MRY
BAY. IFR AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 7:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED 175
MILES SW OF MONTEREY. THIS IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL ZONES
BUT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE SOMEWHERE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 270247
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
747 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING ALONG THE MONTEREY
COASTLINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND. ALSO APPARENT
ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ARE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE...MOVING CLOCKWISE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS PUSHING TOWARDS THE MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COASTLINE. THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A VORT MAX CENTERED AT 32N
129W WHICH IS LIFTING THE MONSOON MOISTURE ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SO FAR TODAY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 11 DEGREES
COOLER AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY
WARM WITH SANTA ROSA REPORTING 89...LIVERMORE 96...SAN JOSE 85 AND
MONTEREY 71 DEGREES. THE SEA BREEZE IS THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR TO TOADY`S COOLER TEMPERATURES. SO FAR THE SEA BREEZE IS
12KT AT KSFO...14KT AT KOAK AND KSNS AND 8 KT AT KMRY.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ADVECT THE A FORE MENTIONED MONSOON MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FORM
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES 240 MILES WEST
OF SANTA BARBARA. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STRIKES IS MOVING NORTH...PARALLELING THE COAST...SO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LIFTING MECHANISM (VORT MAX) WILL
PASS OVER LAND SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER OFF OF THE COAST. BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS MOISTURE FOR ANY HINTS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO
THE COAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO SFO AND
THE APPROACH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE VFR
DURING THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TRENDING MORE
NORTHWEST AND COUPLED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE
MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA
AFTER 09Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN MRY
BAY. IFR AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 7:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED 175
MILES SW OF MONTEREY. THIS IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL ZONES
BUT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE SOMEWHERE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 270001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING ALONG THE MONTEREY
COASTLINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND. ALSO APPARENT
ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ARE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE...MOVING CLOCKWISE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS PUSHING TOWARDS THE MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COASTLINE. THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A VORT MAX CENTERED AT 32N
129W WHICH IS LIFTING THE MONSOON MOISTURE ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SO FAR TODAY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 11 DEGREES
COOLER AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY
WARM WITH SANTA ROSA REPORTING 89...LIVERMORE 96...SAN JOSE 85 AND
MONTEREY 71 DEGREES. THE SEA BREEZE IS THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR TO TOADY`S COOLER TEMPERATURES. SO FAR THE SEA BREEZE IS
12KT AT KSFO...14KT AT KOAK AND KSNS AND 8 KT AT KMRY.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ADVECT THE A FORE MENTIONED MONSOON MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FORM
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES 240 MILES WEST
OF SANTA BARBARA. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STRIKES IS MOVING NORTH...PARALLELING THE COAST...SO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LIFTING MECHANISM (VORT MAX) WILL
PASS OVER LAND SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER OFF OF THE COAST. BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS MOISTURE FOR ANY HINTS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO
THE COAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO SFO AND
THE APPROACH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE VFR
DURING THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TRENDING MORE
NORTHWEST AND COUPLED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE
MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA
AFTER 09Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN MRY
BAY. IFR AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:20 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 270001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING ALONG THE MONTEREY
COASTLINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND. ALSO APPARENT
ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ARE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE...MOVING CLOCKWISE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS PUSHING TOWARDS THE MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COASTLINE. THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A VORT MAX CENTERED AT 32N
129W WHICH IS LIFTING THE MONSOON MOISTURE ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SO FAR TODAY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 11 DEGREES
COOLER AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY
WARM WITH SANTA ROSA REPORTING 89...LIVERMORE 96...SAN JOSE 85 AND
MONTEREY 71 DEGREES. THE SEA BREEZE IS THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR TO TOADY`S COOLER TEMPERATURES. SO FAR THE SEA BREEZE IS
12KT AT KSFO...14KT AT KOAK AND KSNS AND 8 KT AT KMRY.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ADVECT THE A FORE MENTIONED MONSOON MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FORM
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES 240 MILES WEST
OF SANTA BARBARA. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STRIKES IS MOVING NORTH...PARALLELING THE COAST...SO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LIFTING MECHANISM (VORT MAX) WILL
PASS OVER LAND SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER OFF OF THE COAST. BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS MOISTURE FOR ANY HINTS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO
THE COAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO SFO AND
THE APPROACH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE VFR
DURING THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TRENDING MORE
NORTHWEST AND COUPLED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE
MARINE LAYER...LATEST TAF BRINGS IFR CIGS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA
AFTER 09Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
EXPECTED BY 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS CIGS COULD STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN MRY
BAY. IFR AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:20 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 262120
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
220 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING ALONG THE MONTEREY
COASTLINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND. ALSO APPARENT
ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ARE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE...MOVING CLOCKWISE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS PUSHING TOWARDS THE MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COASTLINE. THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A VORT MAX CENTERED AT 32N
129W WHICH IS LIFTING THE MONSOON MOISTURE ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SO FAR TODAY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 11 DEGREES
COOLER AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY
WARM WITH SANTA ROSA REPORTING 89...LIVERMORE 96...SAN JOSE 85 AND
MONTEREY 71 DEGREES. THE SEA BREEZE IS THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR TO TOADY`S COOLER TEMPERATURES. SO FAR THE SEA BREEZE IS
12KT AT KSFO...14KT AT KOAK AND KSNS AND 8 KT AT KMRY.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ADVECT THE A FORE MENTIONED MONSOON MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FORM
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES 240 MILES WEST
OF SANTA BARBARA. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STRIKES IS MOVING NORTH...PARALLELING THE COAST...SO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LIFTING MECHANISM (VORT MAX) WILL
PASS OVER LAND SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER OFF OF THE COAST. BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS MOISTURE FOR ANY HINTS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINS MODERATE AT 3 MB FROM ACV TO SFO.
THE MARINE LAYER IS SHALLOW AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM ALL
TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND
17 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. STRATUS TO RETURN BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:20 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 261732
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1032 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. DUE TO A STRONGER SEA BREEZE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY AND SUNDAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT SATURDAY...SO FAR TEMPERATURE WISE IT
HAS BEEN A MILD START TO THE MORNING. CURRENTLY IN MONTEREY IT IS
62 DEGREES...61 IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO AND 65 DEGREES IN NAPA.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TODAY WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING MONSOON
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 0600Z GFS40
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ADVECT
THE A FORE  MENTIONED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS POINT NO
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA BUT WE WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINS MODERATE AT 3 MB FROM ACV TO SFO.
THE MARINE LAYER IS SHALLOW AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM ALL
TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND
17 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. STRATUS TO RETURN BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:20 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 261732
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1032 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. DUE TO A STRONGER SEA BREEZE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY AND SUNDAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT SATURDAY...SO FAR TEMPERATURE WISE IT
HAS BEEN A MILD START TO THE MORNING. CURRENTLY IN MONTEREY IT IS
62 DEGREES...61 IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO AND 65 DEGREES IN NAPA.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TODAY WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING MONSOON
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 0600Z GFS40
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ADVECT
THE A FORE  MENTIONED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS POINT NO
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA BUT WE WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINS MODERATE AT 3 MB FROM ACV TO SFO.
THE MARINE LAYER IS SHALLOW AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM ALL
TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND
17 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. STRATUS TO RETURN BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:20 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 261605
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. DUE TO A STRONGER SEA BREEZE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY AND SUNDAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT SATURDAY...SO FAR TEMPERATURE WISE IT
HAS BEEN A MILD START TO THE MORNING. CURRENTLY IN MONTEREY IT IS
62 DEGREES...61 IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO AND 65 DEGREES IN NAPA.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TODAY WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING MONSOON
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 0600Z GFS40
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ADVECT
THE A FORE  MENTIONED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS POINT NO
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA BUT WE WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED BUT REMAINS MODERATE AT OVER 4 MB ACV SFO AND MARINE
LAYER IS AROUND 1000 FEET KEEPING STRATUS AT BAY EXCEPT NEAR COAST
FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH. BRIEF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT OAK NEAR
SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR BAY AREA AND IFR MRY BAY THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING. MODERATE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURNING TO
MRY BAY TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND
17 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. BURN OFF
LIKELY BY MID MORNING HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING CLOSER TO
NOON...CONFIDENCE LOW. STRATUS TO RETURN BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 261138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
438 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ABOVE
THE SURFACE WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE EXPECTED BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS BUT COOLER ON THE COAST. A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON AMOUNT OF COOLING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY...AS WELL AS NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FOR TODAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A WEAK LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND 130W. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS OR 850 MB TEMPS TODAY AS IT APPEARS THE COOLING WILL BE
DUE TO CHANGES IN SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL FACILITATE A STRONGER
SEA BREEZE TODAY. NOTING THAT WHILE TEMPERATURES NOW ARE CURRENTLY
NEAR OR WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST. SO WILL SEE A FAIRLY STRONG COOL DOWN FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
MOST OF THE MAJOR URBAN BAY AREA LOCALES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES. IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE HOT SPOTS OF THE FAR INTERIOR
VALLEYS AS WELL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
EXCEED 100 DEGREES TODAY FOR EAST AND NORTH BAY HOT SPOTS AND
SOUTHERN SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTY.

THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR TODAY IS GOING TO BE THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WHICH ALREADY SHOWS UP ON
INFRARED SATELLITE WITH CLOUDS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT SHOWS A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A NORTHWARD EXTENSION THAT SHOULD PRESS UP INTO
AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR EVIDENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
EVIDENCED BY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE MODIFIED TT VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OVERLAPPED WITH HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
MONITOR THIS BUT NOT IMPRESSED ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THAT IT IS A NONZERO CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS THE APPROACH
OF A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS MAY INTRODUCE SOME WARMING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED BUT REMAINS MODERATE AT OVER 4 MB ACV SFO AND MARINE
LAYER IS AROUND 1000 FEET KEEPING STRATUS AT BAY EXCEPT NEAR COAST
FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH. BRIEF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT OAK NEAR
SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR BAY AREA AND IFR MRY BAY THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURNING TO
MRY BAY TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND
17 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. BURN OFF
LIKELY BY MID MORNING HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING CLOSER TO
NOON...CONFIDENCE LOW. STRATUS TO RETURN BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 261138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
438 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ABOVE
THE SURFACE WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE EXPECTED BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS BUT COOLER ON THE COAST. A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON AMOUNT OF COOLING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY...AS WELL AS NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FOR TODAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A WEAK LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND 130W. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS OR 850 MB TEMPS TODAY AS IT APPEARS THE COOLING WILL BE
DUE TO CHANGES IN SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL FACILITATE A STRONGER
SEA BREEZE TODAY. NOTING THAT WHILE TEMPERATURES NOW ARE CURRENTLY
NEAR OR WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST. SO WILL SEE A FAIRLY STRONG COOL DOWN FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
MOST OF THE MAJOR URBAN BAY AREA LOCALES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES. IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE HOT SPOTS OF THE FAR INTERIOR
VALLEYS AS WELL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
EXCEED 100 DEGREES TODAY FOR EAST AND NORTH BAY HOT SPOTS AND
SOUTHERN SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTY.

THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR TODAY IS GOING TO BE THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WHICH ALREADY SHOWS UP ON
INFRARED SATELLITE WITH CLOUDS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT SHOWS A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A NORTHWARD EXTENSION THAT SHOULD PRESS UP INTO
AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR EVIDENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
EVIDENCED BY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE MODIFIED TT VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OVERLAPPED WITH HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
MONITOR THIS BUT NOT IMPRESSED ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THAT IT IS A NONZERO CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS THE APPROACH
OF A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS MAY INTRODUCE SOME WARMING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED BUT REMAINS MODERATE AT OVER 4 MB ACV SFO AND MARINE
LAYER IS AROUND 1000 FEET KEEPING STRATUS AT BAY EXCEPT NEAR COAST
FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH. BRIEF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT OAK NEAR
SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR BAY AREA AND IFR MRY BAY THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURNING TO
MRY BAY TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND
17 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. BURN OFF
LIKELY BY MID MORNING HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING CLOSER TO
NOON...CONFIDENCE LOW. STRATUS TO RETURN BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 261028
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ABOVE
THE SURFACE WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE EXPECTED BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS BUT COOLER ON THE COAST. A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON AMOUNT OF COOLING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY...AS WELL AS NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FOR TODAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A WEAK LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND 130W. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS OR 850 MB TEMPS TODAY AS IT APPEARS THE COOLING WILL BE
DUE TO CHANGES IN SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL FACILITATE A STRONGER
SEA BREEZE TODAY. NOTING THAT WHILE TEMPERATURES NOW ARE CURRENTLY
NEAR OR WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST. SO WILL SEE A FAIRLY STRONG COOLDOWN FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
MOST OF THE MAJOR URBAN BAY AREA LOCALES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES. IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE HOT SPOTS OF THE FAR INTERIOR
VALLEYS AS WELL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
EXCEED 100 DEGREES TODAY FOR EAST AND NORTH BAY HOT SPOTS AND
SOUTHERN SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTY.

THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR TODAY IS GOING TO BE THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WHICH ALREADY SHOWS UP ON
INFRARED SATELLITE WITH CLOUDS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT SHOWS A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A NORTHWARD EXTENSION THAT SHOULD PRESS UP INTO
AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR EVIDENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
EVIDENCED BY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE MODIFIED TT VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OVERLAPPED WITH HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
MONITOR THIS BUT NOT IMPRESSED ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THAT IT IS A NONZERO CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS THE APPROACH
OF A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS MAY INTRODUCE SOME WARMING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
FROM ACV TO SFO REMAINS QUITE STRONG AT 6.6 MB AND THE LOW LEVELS
ARE STILL WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY. THUS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON 00Z MODEL OUTPUT...ONLY PATCHY LOW CIGS/FOG
ARE EXPECTED AROUND SF BAY AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND
CLEARING WILL OCCUR EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE SEABREEZE WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. LOW CIGS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE-HIGH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO ABOUT 17 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 08Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY IN
HAZE AND FOG LIKELY AS WELL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH EARLIER RETURN OF LOW CIGS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 261028
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ABOVE
THE SURFACE WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE EXPECTED BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS BUT COOLER ON THE COAST. A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON AMOUNT OF COOLING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY...AS WELL AS NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FOR TODAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A WEAK LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND 130W. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS OR 850 MB TEMPS TODAY AS IT APPEARS THE COOLING WILL BE
DUE TO CHANGES IN SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL FACILITATE A STRONGER
SEA BREEZE TODAY. NOTING THAT WHILE TEMPERATURES NOW ARE CURRENTLY
NEAR OR WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST. SO WILL SEE A FAIRLY STRONG COOLDOWN FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
MOST OF THE MAJOR URBAN BAY AREA LOCALES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES. IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE HOT SPOTS OF THE FAR INTERIOR
VALLEYS AS WELL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
EXCEED 100 DEGREES TODAY FOR EAST AND NORTH BAY HOT SPOTS AND
SOUTHERN SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTY.

THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR TODAY IS GOING TO BE THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WHICH ALREADY SHOWS UP ON
INFRARED SATELLITE WITH CLOUDS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT SHOWS A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A NORTHWARD EXTENSION THAT SHOULD PRESS UP INTO
AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR EVIDENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
EVIDENCED BY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE MODIFIED TT VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OVERLAPPED WITH HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
MONITOR THIS BUT NOT IMPRESSED ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THAT IT IS A NONZERO CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS THE APPROACH
OF A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS MAY INTRODUCE SOME WARMING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
FROM ACV TO SFO REMAINS QUITE STRONG AT 6.6 MB AND THE LOW LEVELS
ARE STILL WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY. THUS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON 00Z MODEL OUTPUT...ONLY PATCHY LOW CIGS/FOG
ARE EXPECTED AROUND SF BAY AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND
CLEARING WILL OCCUR EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE SEABREEZE WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. LOW CIGS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE-HIGH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO ABOUT 17 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 08Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY IN
HAZE AND FOG LIKELY AS WELL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH EARLIER RETURN OF LOW CIGS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 260543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE GREATEST COOLING
EXPECTED AT THE COAST. NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE BAY AREA AND
CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDED INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE WARM
AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S AT THE
COAST AND 90S TO AS HIGH AS 104 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS. A RECORD HIGH OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET IN
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO.

THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEABREEZE
RESULTING IN COOLING OVER THE DISTRICT. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT COOLING
INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE
EAST OF THE DISTRICT.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
FROM ACV TO SFO REMAINS QUITE STRONG AT 6.6 MB AND THE LOW LEVELS
ARE STILL WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY. THUS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON 00Z MODEL OUTPUT...ONLY PATCHY LOW CIGS/FOG
ARE EXPECTED AROUND SF BAY AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND
CLEARING WILL OCCUR EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE SEABREEZE WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. LOW CIGS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE-HIGH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO ABOUT 17 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 08Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY IN
HAZE AND FOG LIKELY AS WELL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH EARLIER RETURN OF LOW CIGS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 260543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE GREATEST COOLING
EXPECTED AT THE COAST. NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE BAY AREA AND
CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDED INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE WARM
AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S AT THE
COAST AND 90S TO AS HIGH AS 104 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS. A RECORD HIGH OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET IN
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO.

THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEABREEZE
RESULTING IN COOLING OVER THE DISTRICT. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT COOLING
INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE
EAST OF THE DISTRICT.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
FROM ACV TO SFO REMAINS QUITE STRONG AT 6.6 MB AND THE LOW LEVELS
ARE STILL WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY. THUS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON 00Z MODEL OUTPUT...ONLY PATCHY LOW CIGS/FOG
ARE EXPECTED AROUND SF BAY AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND
CLEARING WILL OCCUR EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE SEABREEZE WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. LOW CIGS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE-HIGH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO ABOUT 17 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 08Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY IN
HAZE AND FOG LIKELY AS WELL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH EARLIER RETURN OF LOW CIGS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE GREATEST COOLING
EXPECTED AT THE COAST. NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE BAY AREA AND
CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDED INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE WARM
AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S AT THE
COAST AND 90S TO AS HIGH AS 104 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS. A RECORD HIGH OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET IN
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO.

THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEABREEZE
RESULTING IN COOLING OVER THE DISTRICT. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT COOLING
INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE
EAST OF THE DISTRICT.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY GRADIENT FROM ACV
TO SFO INCREASED TO 6.3 MB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND MONTEREY BAY DURING THE EVENING AND THEN FARTHER
NORTH UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
DECREASES. BUT ONLY PATCHY LATE NIGHT CIGS EXPECTED INTO SF BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLE
PATCHY IFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL. WNW WINDS AROUND
18 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISHING. MODERATE-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH 03Z WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY 04Z. CONFIDENCE LOW-MEDIUM. IFR/LIFR CIGS
LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR VIS DEVELOPING AS WELL. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: SIMS

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