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000
FXUS66 KMTR 231631
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
931 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT THURSDAY...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND KEPT ONLY A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. FURTHER SOUTH...WE
CAN EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES
ARE MAINLY REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS
TIME AND NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY
AUTOMATED GAUGES. EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL HILLS OF THE SFO EXTENDING INTO
SFO AND OAK AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS AND THEREFORE BURN-OFF
TIME IS NOT UNTIL 18-19Z DESPITE THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NO STRATUS REPORTED IN THE MRY BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE MAY BE AN OFFSHORE DRAINAGE WIND
THAT IS KEEPING THE COASTAL STRATUS OUT OF THE BAY. FT ORD
PROFILER SUPPORTS THIS. THEREFORE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 231138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
438 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ARE MAINLY
REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AND NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES.
EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY TODAY BUT NOT MUCH
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL HILLS OF THE SFO EXTENDING INTO
SFO AND OAK AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS AND THEREFORE BURNOFF
TIME IS NOT UNTIL 18-19Z DESPITE THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NO STRATUS REPORTED IN THE MRY BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE MAY BE AN OFFSHORE DRAINAGE WIND
THAT IS KEEPING THE COASTAL STRATUS OUT OF THE BAY. FT ORD
PROFILER SUPPORTS THIS. THEREFORE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 231009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
309 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ARE MAINLY
REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AND NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES.
EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY TODAY BUT NOT MUCH
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER
THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH  LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 231009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
309 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ARE MAINLY
REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AND NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES.
EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY TODAY BUT NOT MUCH
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER
THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH  LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 230533
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN ON THURSDAY THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WERE FOR
THE MOST PART A LITTLE MILDER AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS OVER THE SOUTH BAY
WHERE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HIGHS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S COAST TO THE 70S INLAND.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING IN OVER THE BAY AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS EVENING AND THE RAIN IS
STILL SITUATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. BELIEVE IT OR
NOT SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTH BAY STILL
HOVERING UP NEAR 580 DECAMETERS. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE A LITTLE AROUND 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THEN BUMP UPWARDS
AGAIN TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY
COAST WHERE UP TO 1/3" TOTAL OF RAIN COULD FALL LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEWEST 00Z NAM MODEL DOES NOT PREDICT ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ANYWHERE ELSE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE SOLIDLY HIGHER THIS EVENING
AREA-WIDE SO PERIODIC LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF SONOMA COUNTY AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SQUEEZES OUT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE A TINY AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLY. THE NEAR TERM FITS
PERFECTLY AS A LOW POP LOW QPF FORECAST. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST OR SECOND PERIOD POP FORECASTS.

ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH RIPPLES EAST AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA THURSDAY
ANOTHER (MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRENGTHENING) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
39N/134W FRIDAY EVENING MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING THE PAC NW EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAILING A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD WHICH WILL REACH NORTHERNMOST CA BY EARLY SAT MORNING AND
THEN THE BAY AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS MUCH AS 1" RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER SONOMA...ABOUT 1/2"-3/4" NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES
AND 2/10" OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND NORTH
CENTRAL COAST. BY THE TIME THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS TO CA THE
STRONGEST JET STREAM DYNAMICS WILL HAVE ALREADY POSITIONED ITSELF
FORWARD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTING AN ACCELERATION OF THE LOW
AS WELL AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. IF
ONE IS TRAVELLING TO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HEAVIER
STEADIER RAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT -18C OVER THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...NOT AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD SYSTEM.
THE 00Z NAM PREDICTS A SMALL POCKET...ALBEIT JUST BELOW 35...OF MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY 21Z SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY. OFTEN TIMES LOW PRESSURE AREAS SWING OVER THE AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS PREDICT. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY ARRIVES IN THE NORTH BAY AREA AS EARLY AS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM DEPICTS THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
QUICKLY JUMPING OVER TO NAPA COUNTY THEN MOVING EAST TO THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED IN
EARLIER TODAY AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES EXCEPT THERE`S A
SMALL POSSIBILITY THE T-STORM ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.

THERE`S MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEK`S WEATHER AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. FOR INSTANCE THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS WANT TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA BY HALLOWEEN BUT THE GEM MODEL IS DRY. WAY TOO
EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF IT`LL BE WET OR DRY FOR TRICK OR
TREATERS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
BAYS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A COUPLE OF
DEGS WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...THE WEAK
TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY...MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN SOUTH TO NEAR BODEGA
BAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
THE 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL NORTH BAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN WESTWARD FROM
THE INTERIOR. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT
BOTH LATEST NAM DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES...AND SREF MUCAPE PLUMES...INDICATE A SUFFICIENT
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST OF MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS ALL BUT
POSSIBLY THE EASTERNMOST MARGIN OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING IN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONFINES ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO AREAS
NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER
THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH  LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE COASTAL JET SOUTH OF POINT SUR WHERE MODERATE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 230413 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN ON THURSDAY THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WERE FOR
THE MOST PART A LITTLE MILDER AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS OVER THE SOUTH BAY
WHERE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HIGHS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S COAST TO THE 70S INLAND.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING IN OVER THE BAY AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS EVENING AND THE RAIN IS
STILL SITUATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. BELIEVE IT OR
NOT SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTH BAY STILL
HOVERING UP NEAR 580 DECAMETERS. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE A LITTLE AROUND 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THEN BUMP UPWARDS
AGAIN TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY
COAST WHERE UP TO 1/3" TOTAL OF RAIN COULD FALL LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEWEST 00Z NAM MODEL DOES NOT PREDICT ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ANYWHERE ELSE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE SOLIDLY HIGHER THIS EVENING
AREA-WIDE SO PERIODIC LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF SONOMA COUNTY AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SQUEEZES OUT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE A TINY AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLY. THE NEAR TERM FITS
PERFECTLY AS A LOW POP LOW QPF FORECAST. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST OR SECOND PERIOD POP FORECASTS.

ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH RIPPLES EAST AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA THURSDAY
ANOTHER (MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRENGTHENING) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
39N/134W FRIDAY EVENING MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING THE PAC NW EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAILING A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD WHICH WILL REACH NORTHERNMOST CA BY EARLY SAT MORNING AND
THEN THE BAY AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS MUCH AS 1" RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER SONOMA...ABOUT 1/2"-3/4" NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES
AND 2/10" OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND NORTH
CENTRAL COAST. BY THE TIME THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS TO CA THE
STRONGEST JET STREAM DYNAMICS WILL HAVE ALREADY POSITIONED ITSELF
FORWARD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTING AN ACCELERATION OF THE LOW
AS WELL AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. IF
ONE IS TRAVELLING TO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HEAVIER
STEADIER RAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT -18C OVER THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...NOT AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD SYSTEM.
THE 00Z NAM PREDICTS A SMALL POCKET...ALBEIT JUST BELOW 35...OF MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY 21Z SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY. OFTEN TIMES LOW PRESSURE AREAS SWING OVER THE AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS PREDICT. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY ARRIVES IN THE NORTH BAY AREA AS EARLY AS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM DEPICTS THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
QUICKLY JUMPING OVER TO NAPA COUNTY THEN MOVING EAST TO THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED IN
EARLIER TODAY AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES EXCEPT THERE`S A
SMALL POSSIBILITY THE T-STORM ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.

THERE`S MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEK`S WEATHER AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. FOR INSTANCE THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS WANT TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA BY HALLOWEEN BUT THE GEM MODEL IS DRY. WAY TOO
EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF IT`LL BE WET OR DRY FOR TRICK OR
TREATERS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
BAYS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A COUPLE OF
DEGS WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...THE WEAK
TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY...MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN SOUTH TO NEAR BODEGA
BAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
THE 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL NORTH BAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN WESTWARD FROM
THE INTERIOR. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT
BOTH LATEST NAM DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES...AND SREF MUCAPE PLUMES...INDICATE A SUFFICIENT
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST OF MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS ALL BUT
POSSIBLY THE EASTERNMOST MARGIN OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING IN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONFINES ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO AREAS
NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OFF THE BIG SUR COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 230413 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN ON THURSDAY THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WERE FOR
THE MOST PART A LITTLE MILDER AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS OVER THE SOUTH BAY
WHERE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HIGHS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S COAST TO THE 70S INLAND.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING IN OVER THE BAY AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS EVENING AND THE RAIN IS
STILL SITUATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. BELIEVE IT OR
NOT SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTH BAY STILL
HOVERING UP NEAR 580 DECAMETERS. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE A LITTLE AROUND 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THEN BUMP UPWARDS
AGAIN TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY
COAST WHERE UP TO 1/3" TOTAL OF RAIN COULD FALL LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEWEST 00Z NAM MODEL DOES NOT PREDICT ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ANYWHERE ELSE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE SOLIDLY HIGHER THIS EVENING
AREA-WIDE SO PERIODIC LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF SONOMA COUNTY AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SQUEEZES OUT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE A TINY AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLY. THE NEAR TERM FITS
PERFECTLY AS A LOW POP LOW QPF FORECAST. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST OR SECOND PERIOD POP FORECASTS.

ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH RIPPLES EAST AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA THURSDAY
ANOTHER (MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRENGTHENING) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
39N/134W FRIDAY EVENING MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING THE PAC NW EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAILING A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD WHICH WILL REACH NORTHERNMOST CA BY EARLY SAT MORNING AND
THEN THE BAY AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS MUCH AS 1" RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER SONOMA...ABOUT 1/2"-3/4" NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES
AND 2/10" OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND NORTH
CENTRAL COAST. BY THE TIME THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS TO CA THE
STRONGEST JET STREAM DYNAMICS WILL HAVE ALREADY POSITIONED ITSELF
FORWARD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTING AN ACCELERATION OF THE LOW
AS WELL AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. IF
ONE IS TRAVELLING TO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HEAVIER
STEADIER RAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT -18C OVER THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...NOT AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD SYSTEM.
THE 00Z NAM PREDICTS A SMALL POCKET...ALBEIT JUST BELOW 35...OF MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY 21Z SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY. OFTEN TIMES LOW PRESSURE AREAS SWING OVER THE AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS PREDICT. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY ARRIVES IN THE NORTH BAY AREA AS EARLY AS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM DEPICTS THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
QUICKLY JUMPING OVER TO NAPA COUNTY THEN MOVING EAST TO THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED IN
EARLIER TODAY AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES EXCEPT THERE`S A
SMALL POSSIBILITY THE T-STORM ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.

THERE`S MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEK`S WEATHER AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. FOR INSTANCE THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS WANT TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA BY HALLOWEEN BUT THE GEM MODEL IS DRY. WAY TOO
EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF IT`LL BE WET OR DRY FOR TRICK OR
TREATERS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
BAYS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A COUPLE OF
DEGS WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...THE WEAK
TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY...MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN SOUTH TO NEAR BODEGA
BAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
THE 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL NORTH BAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN WESTWARD FROM
THE INTERIOR. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT
BOTH LATEST NAM DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES...AND SREF MUCAPE PLUMES...INDICATE A SUFFICIENT
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST OF MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS ALL BUT
POSSIBLY THE EASTERNMOST MARGIN OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING IN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONFINES ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO AREAS
NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OFF THE BIG SUR COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 230358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN ON THURSDAY THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WERE FOR
THE MOST PART A LITTLE MILDER AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS OVER THE SOUTH BAY
WHERE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HIGHS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S COAST TO THE 70S INLAND.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING IN OVER THE BAY AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS EVENING AND THE RAIN IS
STILL SITUATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. BELIEVE IT OR
NOT SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTH BAY STILL
HOVERING UP NEAR 580 DECAMETERS. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE A LITTLE AROUND 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THEN BUMP UPWARDS
AGAIN TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY
COAST WHERE UP TO 1/3" TOTAL OF RAIN COULD FALL LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEWEST 00Z NAM MODEL DOES NOT PREDICT ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ANYWHERE ELSE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE SOLIDLY HIGHER THIS EVENING
AREA-WIDE SO PERIODIC LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF SONOMA COUNTY AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SQUEEZES OUT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE A TINY AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLY. THE NEAR TERM FITS
PERFECTLY AS A LOW POP LOW QPF FORECAST. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST OR SECOND PERIOD POP FORECASTS.

ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH RIPPLES EAST AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA THURSDAY
ANOTHER (MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRENGTHENING) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
39N/134W FRIDAY EVENING MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING THE PAC NW EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAILING A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD WHICH WILL REACH NORTHERNMOST CA BY EARLY SAT MORNING AND
THEN THE BAY AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS MUCH AS 1" RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER SONOMA...ABOUT 1/2"-3/4" NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES
AND 2/10" OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND NORTH
CENTRAL COAST. BY THE TIME THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS TO CA THE
STRONGEST JET STREAM DYNAMICS WILL HAVE ALREADY POSITIONED ITSELF
FORWARD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTING AN ACCELERATION OF THE LOW
AS WELL AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. IF
ONE IS TRAVELLING TO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HEAVIER
STEADIER RAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT -18C OVER THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...NOT AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD SYSTEM.
THE 00Z NAM PREDICTS A SMALL POCKET...ALBEIT JUST BELOW 35...OF MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY 21Z SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY. OFTEN TIMES LOW PRESSURE AREAS SWING OVER THE AREA
A LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS PREDICT EVEN UP TO A COUPLE DAYS AHEAD
OF TIME...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ARRIVES IN THE NORTH BAY AREA AS EARLY AS VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE NAM DEPICTS THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY QUICKLY JUMPING OVER TO
NAPA COUNTY THEN MOVING EAST TO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED IN EARLIER TODAY AND
SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES EXCEPT THERE`S A SMALL POSSIBILITY
THE T-STORM ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PRESENTLY
INDICATED.

THERE`S MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEK`S WEATHER AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. FOR INSTANCE THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS WANT TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA BY HALLOWEEN BUT THE GEM MODEL IS DRY. WAY TOO
EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF IT`LL BE WET OR DRY FOR TRICK OR
TREATERS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
BAYS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A COUPLE OF
DEGS WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...THE WEAK
TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY...MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN SOUTH TO NEAR BODEGA
BAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
THE 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL NORTH BAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN WESTWARD FROM
THE INTERIOR. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT
BOTH LATEST NAM DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES...AND SREF MUCAPE PLUMES...INDICATE A SUFFICIENT
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST OF MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS ALL BUT
POSSIBLY THE EASTERNMOST MARGIN OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING IN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONFINES ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO AREAS
NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OFF THE BIG SUR COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 230358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN ON THURSDAY THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WERE FOR
THE MOST PART A LITTLE MILDER AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS OVER THE SOUTH BAY
WHERE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HIGHS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S COAST TO THE 70S INLAND.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING IN OVER THE BAY AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS EVENING AND THE RAIN IS
STILL SITUATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. BELIEVE IT OR
NOT SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTH BAY STILL
HOVERING UP NEAR 580 DECAMETERS. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE A LITTLE AROUND 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THEN BUMP UPWARDS
AGAIN TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY
COAST WHERE UP TO 1/3" TOTAL OF RAIN COULD FALL LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEWEST 00Z NAM MODEL DOES NOT PREDICT ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ANYWHERE ELSE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE SOLIDLY HIGHER THIS EVENING
AREA-WIDE SO PERIODIC LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF SONOMA COUNTY AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SQUEEZES OUT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE A TINY AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLY. THE NEAR TERM FITS
PERFECTLY AS A LOW POP LOW QPF FORECAST. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST OR SECOND PERIOD POP FORECASTS.

ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH RIPPLES EAST AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA THURSDAY
ANOTHER (MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRENGTHENING) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
39N/134W FRIDAY EVENING MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHING THE PAC NW EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAILING A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD WHICH WILL REACH NORTHERNMOST CA BY EARLY SAT MORNING AND
THEN THE BAY AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS MUCH AS 1" RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER SONOMA...ABOUT 1/2"-3/4" NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES
AND 2/10" OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA AND NORTH
CENTRAL COAST. BY THE TIME THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS TO CA THE
STRONGEST JET STREAM DYNAMICS WILL HAVE ALREADY POSITIONED ITSELF
FORWARD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTING AN ACCELERATION OF THE LOW
AS WELL AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. IF
ONE IS TRAVELLING TO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HEAVIER
STEADIER RAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT -18C OVER THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...NOT AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD SYSTEM.
THE 00Z NAM PREDICTS A SMALL POCKET...ALBEIT JUST BELOW 35...OF MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY 21Z SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY. OFTEN TIMES LOW PRESSURE AREAS SWING OVER THE AREA
A LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS PREDICT EVEN UP TO A COUPLE DAYS AHEAD
OF TIME...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ARRIVES IN THE NORTH BAY AREA AS EARLY AS VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE NAM DEPICTS THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY QUICKLY JUMPING OVER TO
NAPA COUNTY THEN MOVING EAST TO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED IN EARLIER TODAY AND
SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES EXCEPT THERE`S A SMALL POSSIBILITY
THE T-STORM ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PRESENTLY
INDICATED.

THERE`S MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEK`S WEATHER AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. FOR INSTANCE THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS WANT TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA BY HALLOWEEN BUT THE GEM MODEL IS DRY. WAY TOO
EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF IT`LL BE WET OR DRY FOR TRICK OR
TREATERS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
BAYS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A COUPLE OF
DEGS WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...THE WEAK
TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY...MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN SOUTH TO NEAR BODEGA
BAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
THE 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL NORTH BAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN WESTWARD FROM
THE INTERIOR. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT
BOTH LATEST NAM DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES...AND SREF MUCAPE PLUMES...INDICATE A SUFFICIENT
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST OF MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS ALL BUT
POSSIBLY THE EASTERNMOST MARGIN OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING IN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONFINES ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO AREAS
NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OFF THE BIG SUR COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 230034
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
534 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN ON THURSDAY THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A COUPLE OF DEGS
WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...THE WEAK TAIL
END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN SOUTH TO NEAR BODEGA BAY...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL TOTALS
LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL NORTH BAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN WESTWARD FROM
THE INTERIOR. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT
BOTH LATEST NAM DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES...AND SREF MUCAPE PLUMES...INDICATE A SUFFICIENT
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST OF MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS ALL BUT
POSSIBLY THE EASTERNMOST MARGIN OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING IN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONFINES ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO AREAS
NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OFF THE BIG SUR COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 230034
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
534 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN ON THURSDAY THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A COUPLE OF DEGS
WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...THE WEAK TAIL
END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN SOUTH TO NEAR BODEGA BAY...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL TOTALS
LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL NORTH BAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN WESTWARD FROM
THE INTERIOR. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT
BOTH LATEST NAM DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES...AND SREF MUCAPE PLUMES...INDICATE A SUFFICIENT
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST OF MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS ALL BUT
POSSIBLY THE EASTERNMOST MARGIN OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING IN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONFINES ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO AREAS
NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OFF THE BIG SUR COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 222223
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
323 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN ON THURSDAY THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A COUPLE OF DEGS
WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...THE WEAK TAIL
END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN SOUTH TO NEAR BODEGA BAY...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL TOTALS
LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL NORTH BAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN WESTWARD FROM
THE INTERIOR. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT
BOTH LATEST NAM DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES...AND SREF MUCAPE PLUMES...INDICATE A SUFFICIENT
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST OF MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS ALL BUT
POSSIBLY THE EASTERNMOST MARGIN OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING IN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONFINES ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO AREAS
NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE BEYOND 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON...YET WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12 KT. STRATUS
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OFF THE BIG SUR COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221743
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK TAIL END
OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. THEN A BREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR DISTRICT. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

THE WEAK TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN
A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN FROM AROUND BODEGA BAY NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN SATURDAY MORNING
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE BEYOND 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON...YET WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12 KT. STRATUS
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221743
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK TAIL END
OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. THEN A BREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR DISTRICT. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

THE WEAK TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN
A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN FROM AROUND BODEGA BAY NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN SATURDAY MORNING
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE BEYOND 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON...YET WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12 KT. STRATUS
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221625
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK TAIL END
OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. THEN A BREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR DISTRICT. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

THE WEAK TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN
A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN FROM AROUND BODEGA BAY NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN SATURDAY MORNING
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT STS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221625
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK TAIL END
OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. THEN A BREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR DISTRICT. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

THE WEAK TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN
A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN FROM AROUND BODEGA BAY NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN SATURDAY MORNING
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT STS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 221132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE
NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:58 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 50S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE BOARD.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
REGARDING HOW MUCH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HOW LOW PRECIP
WILL BE HELD OFF. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS BOTH BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE OUT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT STS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:29 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220958
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE
NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:58 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 50S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE BOARD.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
REGARDING HOW MUCH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HOW LOW PRECIP
WILL BE HELD OFF. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS BOTH BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE OUT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:29 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220958
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE
NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:58 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 50S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE BOARD.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
REGARDING HOW MUCH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HOW LOW PRECIP
WILL BE HELD OFF. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS BOTH BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE OUT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:29 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220513
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WERE IN THE MID 60S TO THE 70S...AND LOWS WERE IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MANY
AREAS AROUND THE REGION FOR WHAT IS NOW...IF YOU CAN BELIEVE HOW
FAST 2014 IS PASSING US BY...LATE OCTOBER. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING.

THE MOST RECENT 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INCREASES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COUNT FROM 4 TO 5 AROUND THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MAKING IT FAVORABLE FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO STRENGTHEN WHEN THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SOLID BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING WESTWARD BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS MENTIONED...DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS IN THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING WHILE THE
LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSES MOSTLY ON THE
PAC NW COAST AND WESTERN CANADA WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERNMOST CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS A SLOWLY DIMINISHING
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER
WEATHER MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOW LONG THE WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER
LASTS NEXT WEEK IS A TOUGH QUESTION TO ANSWER. ANOTHER E PAC
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS THUS THERE IS MUCH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS WEATHER DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE
MEAN FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING
RAINFALL TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:36 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220513
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WERE IN THE MID 60S TO THE 70S...AND LOWS WERE IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MANY
AREAS AROUND THE REGION FOR WHAT IS NOW...IF YOU CAN BELIEVE HOW
FAST 2014 IS PASSING US BY...LATE OCTOBER. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING.

THE MOST RECENT 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INCREASES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COUNT FROM 4 TO 5 AROUND THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MAKING IT FAVORABLE FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO STRENGTHEN WHEN THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SOLID BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING WESTWARD BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS MENTIONED...DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS IN THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING WHILE THE
LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSES MOSTLY ON THE
PAC NW COAST AND WESTERN CANADA WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERNMOST CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS A SLOWLY DIMINISHING
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER
WEATHER MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOW LONG THE WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER
LASTS NEXT WEEK IS A TOUGH QUESTION TO ANSWER. ANOTHER E PAC
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS THUS THERE IS MUCH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS WEATHER DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE
MEAN FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING
RAINFALL TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:36 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220410
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
910 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WERE IN THE MID 60S TO THE 70S...AND LOWS WERE IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MANY
AREAS AROUND THE REGION FOR WHAT IS NOW...IF YOU CAN BELIEVE HOW
FAST 2014 IS PASSING US BY...LATE OCTOBER. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING.

THE MOST RECENT 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INCREASES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COUNT FROM 4 TO 5 AROUND THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MAKING IT FAVORABLE FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO STRENGTHEN WHEN THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SOLID BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING WESTWARD BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS MENTIONED...DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS IN THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING WHILE THE
LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSES MOSTLY ON THE
PAC NW COAST AND WESTERN CANADA WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERNMOST CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS A SLOWLY DIMINISHING
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER
WEATHER MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOW LONG THE WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER
LASTS NEXT WEEK IS A TOUGH QUESTION TO ANSWER. ANOTHER E PAC
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS THUS THERE IS MUCH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS WEATHER DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE
MEAN FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING
RAINFALL TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. WILL INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PREVAILING GROUPS FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
OF  A PATCHY FOG SITUATION GIVEN THE RIDGE POSITION. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL EASE
THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:57 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220008
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
508 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE MEAN
FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING RAINFALL
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. WILL INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PREVAILING GROUPS FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
OF  A PATCHY FOG SITUATION GIVEN THE RIDGE POSITION. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL EASE
THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:57 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 212059
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
159 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE MEAN
FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING RAINFALL
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PRESENTLY ONGOING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST AND PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO START OUT TONIGHT...THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS 12Z WED. WILL INCLUDE MVFR CONDITIONS IN PREVAILING GROUPS
FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY FOG SITUATION GIVEN THE
RIDGE POSITION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH 12Z WED. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS OR VSBY WITH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK WED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:56 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211801
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE
THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR
START TO THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO
A COOLER START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MANY SPOTS (WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT
THIS TIME). HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY -- MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE
END OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT
IT FOR NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS
BEEN FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOME
TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN
THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN JUST
24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS
WHILE THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF
AND MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PRESENTLY ONGOING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST AND PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO START OUT TONIGHT...THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS 12Z WED. WILL INCLUDE MVFR CONDITIONS IN PREVAILING GROUPS
FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY FOG SITUATION GIVEN THE
RIDGE POSITION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH 12Z WED. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS OR VSBY WITH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK WED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:56 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE
THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR
START TO THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO
A COOLER START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MANY SPOTS (WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT
THIS TIME). HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY -- MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE
END OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT
IT FOR NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS
BEEN FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOME
TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN
THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN JUST
24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS
WHILE THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF
AND MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE
THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR
START TO THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO
A COOLER START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MANY SPOTS (WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT
THIS TIME). HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY -- MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE
END OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT
IT FOR NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS
BEEN FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOME
TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN
THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN JUST
24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS
WHILE THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF
AND MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 211134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS BACK TO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 210540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS BACK TO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210016
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210016
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 201733
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
BAY DOWN THROUGH THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL..RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH UP TO A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND COASTAL SLOPES.
MANY INLAND AREAS ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE SALINAS VALLEY MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO RAINFALL
AT ALL. AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA... WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...YET CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OR NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR
WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE
MOST LIKELY TO LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE
MOST AROUND SF BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING
THE RIDGE AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS WARM AS WE WERE THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER
70S TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY
MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEING ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF
THE MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED
FROM A BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE
A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF
THE ECMWF (PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE
SATURDAY) FLIPS INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED QUITE A BIT. ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM
PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF
SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY
BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE
PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE
RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE ON
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 201733
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
BAY DOWN THROUGH THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL..RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH UP TO A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND COASTAL SLOPES.
MANY INLAND AREAS ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE SALINAS VALLEY MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO RAINFALL
AT ALL. AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA... WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...YET CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OR NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR
WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE
MOST LIKELY TO LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE
MOST AROUND SF BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING
THE RIDGE AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS WARM AS WE WERE THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER
70S TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY
MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEING ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF
THE MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED
FROM A BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE
A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF
THE ECMWF (PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE
SATURDAY) FLIPS INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED QUITE A BIT. ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM
PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF
SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY
BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE
PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE
RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE ON
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







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