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000
FXUS66 KMTR 230451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. BECAUSE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LOWER ELEVATION INLAND LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME INLAND VALLEYS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FARED MUCH BETTER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTAL HILLS MANAGING TO
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN.
HOWEVER...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
VALLEYS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COOL START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY IN THE COLDEST INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A DRY AND MILD DAY...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS COULD BE THE
START OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE WET WEATHER TO
FOLLOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMIDITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM EARLY TO
MID WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 230451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. BECAUSE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LOWER ELEVATION INLAND LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME INLAND VALLEYS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FARED MUCH BETTER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTAL HILLS MANAGING TO
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN.
HOWEVER...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
VALLEYS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COOL START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY IN THE COLDEST INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A DRY AND MILD DAY...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS COULD BE THE
START OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE WET WEATHER TO
FOLLOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMIDITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM EARLY TO
MID WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 230451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. BECAUSE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LOWER ELEVATION INLAND LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME INLAND VALLEYS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FARED MUCH BETTER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTAL HILLS MANAGING TO
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN.
HOWEVER...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
VALLEYS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COOL START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY IN THE COLDEST INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A DRY AND MILD DAY...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS COULD BE THE
START OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE WET WEATHER TO
FOLLOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMIDITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM EARLY TO
MID WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 230137
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
537 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMDIITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 230137
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
537 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMDIITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:05 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ONLY PICKING UP LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MANY HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 0.25" PER
HOUR. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT FRONTAL
RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND ORIENTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES/PASSES.
VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE DUE TO REMNANT
MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS 1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF
SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED
TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:05 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ONLY PICKING UP LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MANY HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 0.25" PER
HOUR. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT FRONTAL
RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND ORIENTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES/PASSES.
VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE DUE TO REMNANT
MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS 1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF
SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED
TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221711
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:05 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ONLY PICKING UP LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MANY HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 0.25" PER
HOUR. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:59 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS
BAY AREA TERMINALS IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 13Z-14Z TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:39 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221711
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:05 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ONLY PICKING UP LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MANY HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 0.25" PER
HOUR. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:59 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS
BAY AREA TERMINALS IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 13Z-14Z TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:39 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:59 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS
BAY AREA TERMINALS IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 13Z-14Z TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:39 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:59 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS
BAY AREA TERMINALS IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 13Z-14Z TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:39 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE DISTRICT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
RUSH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z SATURDAY. LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 22Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE DISTRICT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
RUSH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z SATURDAY. LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 22Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 220548
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
948 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND UNIMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RECENT ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA AS A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO THAT AREA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
SPREADING WARM ADVECTION RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
SANTA CRUZ AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH RAINFALL SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL
PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO POST-FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SO SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH-
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END BY MIDDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE TAP...WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT PRECIP HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INDICATES THAT
EITHER THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK DEVELOPING PRECIP OR HAVE
OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST ITS INITIAL
STRENGTH. IN ANY CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF OF 0.25-1.00" IN
THE NORTH BAY...0.10-0.40" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY
AREA...AND 0.20" OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS RESULT IN SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT.

DRIER NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE HILLS
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DRY OUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS THEN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS (850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 15 DEG C BY TUESDAY)...WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SPREAD RAIN
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE DISTRICT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
RUSH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z SATURDAY. LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 22Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:44 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS AND BUILDING NW
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 220548
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
948 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND UNIMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RECENT ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA AS A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO THAT AREA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
SPREADING WARM ADVECTION RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
SANTA CRUZ AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH RAINFALL SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL
PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO POST-FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SO SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH-
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END BY MIDDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE TAP...WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT PRECIP HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INDICATES THAT
EITHER THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK DEVELOPING PRECIP OR HAVE
OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST ITS INITIAL
STRENGTH. IN ANY CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF OF 0.25-1.00" IN
THE NORTH BAY...0.10-0.40" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY
AREA...AND 0.20" OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS RESULT IN SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT.

DRIER NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE HILLS
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DRY OUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS THEN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS (850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 15 DEG C BY TUESDAY)...WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SPREAD RAIN
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE DISTRICT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
RUSH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z SATURDAY. LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 22Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:44 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS AND BUILDING NW
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 220457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND UNIMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RECENT ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA AS A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO THAT AREA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
SPREADING WARM ADVECTION RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
SANTA CRUZ AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH RAINFALL SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL
PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO POST-FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SO SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH-
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END BY MIDDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE TAP...WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT PRECIP HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INDICATES THAT
EITHER THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK DEVELOPING PRECIP OR HAVE
OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST ITS INITIAL
STRENGTH. IN ANY CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF OF 0.25-1.00" IN
THE NORTH BAY...0.10-0.40" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY
AREA...AND 0.20" OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS RESULT IN SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT.

DRIER NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE HILLS
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DRY OUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS THEN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS (850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 15 DEG C BY TUESDAY)...WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SPREAD RAIN
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
RAIN APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 20Z
SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS AND
BUILDING NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 220457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND UNIMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RECENT ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA AS A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO THAT AREA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
SPREADING WARM ADVECTION RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
SANTA CRUZ AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH RAINFALL SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL
PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO POST-FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SO SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH-
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END BY MIDDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE TAP...WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT PRECIP HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INDICATES THAT
EITHER THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK DEVELOPING PRECIP OR HAVE
OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST ITS INITIAL
STRENGTH. IN ANY CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF OF 0.25-1.00" IN
THE NORTH BAY...0.10-0.40" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY
AREA...AND 0.20" OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS RESULT IN SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT.

DRIER NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE HILLS
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DRY OUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS THEN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS (850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 15 DEG C BY TUESDAY)...WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SPREAD RAIN
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
RAIN APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 20Z
SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS AND
BUILDING NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 220005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.


VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
RAIN APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 20Z
SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.


VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
RAIN APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 20Z
SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 212256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 212256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211810
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1010 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST FRIDAY...STORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. LOOK FOR RAIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND SF BAY
AREA. CNRFC QPF VALUES INDICATE 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS, 1/2"-1" FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH BAY, AND GENERALLY
1/4"-1/2" FOR SF BAY REGION PLUS SC MOUNTAINS. OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY PICK UP LESS THAN 1/4". DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD BE HERE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG SETTLING INTO INLAND
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE
AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.


KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:44 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211810
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1010 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST FRIDAY...STORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. LOOK FOR RAIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND SF BAY
AREA. CNRFC QPF VALUES INDICATE 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS, 1/2"-1" FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH BAY, AND GENERALLY
1/4"-1/2" FOR SF BAY REGION PLUS SC MOUNTAINS. OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY PICK UP LESS THAN 1/4". DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD BE HERE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG SETTLING INTO INLAND
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE
AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.


KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:44 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: RWW

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211636
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
836 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST FRIDAY...STORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. LOOK FOR RAIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND SF BAY
AREA. CNRFC QPF VALUES INDICATE 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS, 1/2"-1" FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH BAY, AND GENERALLY
1/4"-1/2" FOR SF BAY REGION PLUS SC MOUNTAINS. OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY PICK UP LESS THAN 1/4". DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD BE HERE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG SETTLING INTO INLAND
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE
AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:54 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. DIFFICULT
AVIATION FORECAST AGAIN WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOG TO
DEVELOP IN KSTS AND KSNS. LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY
AND THOSE WILL PROBABLY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BRIEFLY FILTER IN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM
FRONTAL RAINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT REACHING
THE BAY AREA BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CIGS THROUGH
17-18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT EAST WINDS WILL BRING CIGS FROM THE
DELTA INTO THE BAY THIS MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
SHOULD FILTER OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CONDITIONS LOOKING FAVORABLE NEAR
THE COAST AT KMRY BUT CLEARING HAS LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG
FORMATION AT KSNS. EXPECT ANY MORNING CIGS TO LIFT BY 18-19Z THE
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:47 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211636
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
836 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST FRIDAY...STORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. LOOK FOR RAIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND SF BAY
AREA. CNRFC QPF VALUES INDICATE 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS, 1/2"-1" FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH BAY, AND GENERALLY
1/4"-1/2" FOR SF BAY REGION PLUS SC MOUNTAINS. OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY PICK UP LESS THAN 1/4". DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD BE HERE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG SETTLING INTO INLAND
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE
AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:54 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. DIFFICULT
AVIATION FORECAST AGAIN WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOG TO
DEVELOP IN KSTS AND KSNS. LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY
AND THOSE WILL PROBABLY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BRIEFLY FILTER IN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM
FRONTAL RAINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT REACHING
THE BAY AREA BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CIGS THROUGH
17-18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT EAST WINDS WILL BRING CIGS FROM THE
DELTA INTO THE BAY THIS MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
SHOULD FILTER OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CONDITIONS LOOKING FAVORABLE NEAR
THE COAST AT KMRY BUT CLEARING HAS LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG
FORMATION AT KSNS. EXPECT ANY MORNING CIGS TO LIFT BY 18-19Z THE
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:47 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
354 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 AM PST FRIDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG
SETTLING INTO INLAND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS
CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED
BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:54 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. DIFFICULT
AVIATION FORECAST AGAIN WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOG TO
DEVELOP IN KSTS AND KSNS. LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY
AND THOSE WILL PROBABLY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BRIEFLY FILTER IN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM
FRONTAL RAINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT REACHING
THE BAY AREA BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CIGS THROUGH
17-18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT EAST WINDS WILL BRING CIGS FROM THE
DELTA INTO THE BAY THIS MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
SHOULD FILTER OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CONDITIONS LOOKING FAVORABLE NEAR
THE COAST AT KMRY BUT CLEARING HAS LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG
FORMATION AT KSNS. EXPECT ANY MORNING CIGS TO LIFT BY 18-19Z THE
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:47 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
354 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 AM PST FRIDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG
SETTLING INTO INLAND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS
CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED
BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:54 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. DIFFICULT
AVIATION FORECAST AGAIN WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOG TO
DEVELOP IN KSTS AND KSNS. LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY
AND THOSE WILL PROBABLY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BRIEFLY FILTER IN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM
FRONTAL RAINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT REACHING
THE BAY AREA BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CIGS THROUGH
17-18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT EAST WINDS WILL BRING CIGS FROM THE
DELTA INTO THE BAY THIS MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
SHOULD FILTER OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CONDITIONS LOOKING FAVORABLE NEAR
THE COAST AT KMRY BUT CLEARING HAS LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG
FORMATION AT KSNS. EXPECT ANY MORNING CIGS TO LIFT BY 18-19Z THE
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:47 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
251 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 AM PST FRIDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG
SETTLING INTO INLAND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS
CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED
BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:49 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. LAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER KMRY AND KSNS AND SHOULD BE ENDING
OVERNIGHT. SOME 1/4 MILE FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KSTS AND
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUD
HEIGHTS IN GENERAL THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA ARE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
TAFS WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME LOWERING OF CIGS BY SUNRISE BUT THEN
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS.
NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WONT
IMPACT SF BAY UNTIL SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING CIGS 3000 FEET AND HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN LOWERING TO MVFR BY 12-14Z FRIDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT BY 17-18Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LINGERING -SHRA TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
THEN SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME CONCERN FOR
PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT WONT SHOW IN TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:47 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
251 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 AM PST FRIDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG
SETTLING INTO INLAND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS
CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED
BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:49 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. LAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER KMRY AND KSNS AND SHOULD BE ENDING
OVERNIGHT. SOME 1/4 MILE FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KSTS AND
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUD
HEIGHTS IN GENERAL THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA ARE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
TAFS WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME LOWERING OF CIGS BY SUNRISE BUT THEN
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS.
NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WONT
IMPACT SF BAY UNTIL SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING CIGS 3000 FEET AND HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN LOWERING TO MVFR BY 12-14Z FRIDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT BY 17-18Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LINGERING -SHRA TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
THEN SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME CONCERN FOR
PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT WONT SHOW IN TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:47 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 210549
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST THURSDAY...TODAY`S 00Z OAK
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SHOWING AN LI OF MINUS 3
AND A CAPE VALUE OF 780 J/KG. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN THE GOLDEN GATE AND MONTEREY BAY...INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN SAN MATEO COUNTY...AND LOCALLY OVER AND NEAR SAN
FRANCISCO BAY. IN THESE AREAS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
DEVELOPED. RAIN RATES WERE HEAVY IN THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LA HONDA RAWS STATION...LOCATED SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 IN SOUTHERN SAN MATEO COUNTY...PICKED UP NEARLY 7
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER TWO HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...WITH NEARLY ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW FROM SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. ALSO...INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS. A
FORECAST UPDATE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REMOVAL OF
RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST
UPDATE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE VISIBILITY AT
THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY THEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE NORTH BAY. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND THE FORECAST UPDATE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED
A REDUCTION OF POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE ONE
THAT IS CURRENTLY EXITING OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RAIN TOTALS FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SOUTH INTO SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE IN THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS
THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:49 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. LAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER KMRY AND KSNS AND SHOULD BE ENDING
OVERNIGHT. SOME 1/4 MILE FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KSTS AND
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUD
HEIGHTS IN GENERAL THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA ARE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
TAFS WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME LOWERING OF CIGS BY SUNRISE BUT THEN
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS.
NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WONT
IMPACT SF BAY UNTIL SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING CIGS 3000 FEET AND HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN LOWERING TO MVFR BY 12-14Z FRIDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT BY 17-18Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LINGERING -SHRA TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
THEN SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME CONCERN FOR
PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT WONT SHOW IN TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:42 PM PST THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
THAT FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN
AND INCREASING WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT STRONGER NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING NW
SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST THURSDAY...TODAY`S 00Z OAK
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SHOWING AN LI OF MINUS 3
AND A CAPE VALUE OF 780 J/KG. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN THE GOLDEN GATE AND MONTEREY BAY...INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN SAN MATEO COUNTY...AND LOCALLY OVER AND NEAR SAN
FRANCISCO BAY. IN THESE AREAS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
DEVELOPED. RAIN RATES WERE HEAVY IN THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LA HONDA RAWS STATION...LOCATED SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 IN SOUTHERN SAN MATEO COUNTY...PICKED UP NEARLY 7
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER TWO HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...WITH NEARLY ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW FROM SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. ALSO...INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS. A
FORECAST UPDATE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REMOVAL OF
RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST
UPDATE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE VISIBILITY AT
THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY THEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE NORTH BAY. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND THE FORECAST UPDATE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED
A REDUCTION OF POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE ONE
THAT IS CURRENTLY EXITING OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RAIN TOTALS FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SOUTH INTO SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE IN THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS
THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:12 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INITIAL
BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED ONSHORE BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF SHOWERS
STILL OVER THE BAY AREA WITH MORE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. WINDS AT
THE BUOYS AND TERMINALS ARE STILL SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD SHIFT BY
03-04Z. VCTS WAS KEPT IN BAY AREA TAFS TIL 03Z AND GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS THAT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH MOST ACTIVE CELLS
CURRENTLY NEAR POINT REYES. CLEARING WILL BE GRADUAL OVERNIGHT AND
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT OVER TO EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
TO START THE DAY FRIDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS
THROUGH 03Z...AFTER WHICH WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH
PRECIP ENDING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...-SHRA THROUGH THIS EVENING ROUGHLY
03-04Z. THEN LIGHT WESTERLY AND GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:48 PM PST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST THURSDAY...TODAY`S 00Z OAK
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SHOWING AN LI OF MINUS 3
AND A CAPE VALUE OF 780 J/KG. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN THE GOLDEN GATE AND MONTEREY BAY...INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN SAN MATEO COUNTY...AND LOCALLY OVER AND NEAR SAN
FRANCISCO BAY. IN THESE AREAS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
DEVELOPED. RAIN RATES WERE HEAVY IN THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LA HONDA RAWS STATION...LOCATED SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 IN SOUTHERN SAN MATEO COUNTY...PICKED UP NEARLY 7
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER TWO HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...WITH NEARLY ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW FROM SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. ALSO...INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS. A
FORECAST UPDATE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REMOVAL OF
RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST
UPDATE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE VISIBILITY AT
THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY THEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE NORTH BAY. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND THE FORECAST UPDATE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED
A REDUCTION OF POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE ONE
THAT IS CURRENTLY EXITING OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RAIN TOTALS FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SOUTH INTO SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE IN THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS
THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:12 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INITIAL
BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED ONSHORE BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF SHOWERS
STILL OVER THE BAY AREA WITH MORE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. WINDS AT
THE BUOYS AND TERMINALS ARE STILL SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD SHIFT BY
03-04Z. VCTS WAS KEPT IN BAY AREA TAFS TIL 03Z AND GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS THAT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH MOST ACTIVE CELLS
CURRENTLY NEAR POINT REYES. CLEARING WILL BE GRADUAL OVERNIGHT AND
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT OVER TO EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
TO START THE DAY FRIDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS
THROUGH 03Z...AFTER WHICH WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH
PRECIP ENDING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...-SHRA THROUGH THIS EVENING ROUGHLY
03-04Z. THEN LIGHT WESTERLY AND GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:48 PM PST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210012
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
412 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWER TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN
ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY AND THEN ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS PUSHING
ACROSS OUR CWA AND ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RADAR RETURNS HAVE
NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES A
STRONGER CELL DID POP UP WEST OF BODEGA BAY THAT PROMPTED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR (THAT TRIGGERED THE CELL OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS OFF THE EKA COAST) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE GRIDS TO MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM OVER AN INCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS TO 1/3"-2/3" FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SF
BAY REGION, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. RADAR DOES SHOW A
NICE BAND CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MONTEREY COASTLINE, SO NUMBERS
DOWN THERE SHOULD NICELY INCREASE BEFORE THE EVENING IS OVER.

AFTER ABOUT A 24 HOUR BREAK, ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL MOVE TO OUR AREA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTH
BAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE SF REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, AND DOWN TO
MONTEREY BAY AREA SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
RAINFALL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AMOUNTS WE ARE SEEING TODAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO APPROACH 1.5" AT THE COAST,
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER VALUES BEING HIT.
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE LESS WITH THE SECOND STORM COMPARED
TO TODAY, SO AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST. RAIN
WILL END BY SATURDAY EVENING.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. ALSO, THANKSGIVING DAY AT THIS TIME STILL
LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:12 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INITIAL
BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED ONSHORE BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF SHOWERS
STILL OVER THE BAY AREA WITH MORE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. WINDS AT
THE BUOYS AND TERMINALS ARE STILL SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD SHIFT BY
03-04Z. VCTS WAS KEPT IN BAY AREA TAFS TIL 03Z AND GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS THAT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH MOST ACTIVE CELLS
CURRENTLY NEAR POINT REYES. CLEARING WILL BE GRADUAL OVERNIGHT AND
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT OVER TO EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
TO START THE DAY FRIDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS
THROUGH 03Z...AFTER WHICH WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH
PRECIP ENDING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...-SHRA THROUGH THIS EVENING ROUGHLY
03-04Z. THEN LIGHT WESTERLY AND GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:48 PM PST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210012
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
412 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWER TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN
ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY AND THEN ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS PUSHING
ACROSS OUR CWA AND ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RADAR RETURNS HAVE
NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES A
STRONGER CELL DID POP UP WEST OF BODEGA BAY THAT PROMPTED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR (THAT TRIGGERED THE CELL OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS OFF THE EKA COAST) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE GRIDS TO MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM OVER AN INCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS TO 1/3"-2/3" FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SF
BAY REGION, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. RADAR DOES SHOW A
NICE BAND CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MONTEREY COASTLINE, SO NUMBERS
DOWN THERE SHOULD NICELY INCREASE BEFORE THE EVENING IS OVER.

AFTER ABOUT A 24 HOUR BREAK, ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL MOVE TO OUR AREA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTH
BAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE SF REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, AND DOWN TO
MONTEREY BAY AREA SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
RAINFALL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AMOUNTS WE ARE SEEING TODAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO APPROACH 1.5" AT THE COAST,
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER VALUES BEING HIT.
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE LESS WITH THE SECOND STORM COMPARED
TO TODAY, SO AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST. RAIN
WILL END BY SATURDAY EVENING.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. ALSO, THANKSGIVING DAY AT THIS TIME STILL
LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:12 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INITIAL
BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED ONSHORE BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF SHOWERS
STILL OVER THE BAY AREA WITH MORE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. WINDS AT
THE BUOYS AND TERMINALS ARE STILL SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD SHIFT BY
03-04Z. VCTS WAS KEPT IN BAY AREA TAFS TIL 03Z AND GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS THAT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH MOST ACTIVE CELLS
CURRENTLY NEAR POINT REYES. CLEARING WILL BE GRADUAL OVERNIGHT AND
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT OVER TO EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
TO START THE DAY FRIDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS
THROUGH 03Z...AFTER WHICH WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH
PRECIP ENDING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...-SHRA THROUGH THIS EVENING ROUGHLY
03-04Z. THEN LIGHT WESTERLY AND GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:48 PM PST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 202303
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
303 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWER TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN
ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY AND THEN ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS PUSHING
ACROSS OUR CWA AND ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RADAR RETURNS HAVE
NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES A
STRONGER CELL DID POP UP WEST OF BODEGA BAY THAT PROMPTED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR (THAT TRIGGERED THE CELL OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS OFF THE EKA COAST) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE GRIDS TO MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM OVER AN INCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS TO 1/3"-2/3" FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SF
BAY REGION, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. RADAR DOES SHOW A
NICE BAND CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MONTEREY COASTLINE, SO NUMBERS
DOWN THERE SHOULD NICELY INCREASE BEFORE THE EVENING IS OVER.

AFTER ABOUT A 24 HOUR BREAK, ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL MOVE TO OUR AREA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTH
BAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE SF REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, AND DOWN TO
MONTEREY BAY AREA SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
RAINFALL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AMOUNTS WE ARE SEEING TODAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO APPROACH 1.5" AT THE COAST,
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER VALUES BEING HIT.
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE LESS WITH THE SECOND STORM COMPARED
TO TODAY, SO AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST. RAIN
WILL END BY SATURDAY EVENING.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. ALSO, THANKSGIVING DAY AT THIS TIME STILL
LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST THURSDAY...DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN WILL SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHTNING DETECTION
HAS PICKED UP ON A CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES (APPROX 200NM WEST
OF KSFO) RIDING IN ON THE COATTAIL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FOCUS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z
THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY WHERE EXACTLY THE TS WILL POP US
THEREFORE OPTED FOR A BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH TO THE FORECAST WITH
VCTS AT THIS TIME. LIGHTER PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES AROUND
20Z-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WIND EXPECTED OT VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS AND -RA EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE...ESP KOAK. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTED N TO NE FLOW
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. -RA EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 21Z-22Z. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BETWEEN 23Z- 03Z. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 202303
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
303 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWER TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN
ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY AND THEN ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS PUSHING
ACROSS OUR CWA AND ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RADAR RETURNS HAVE
NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES A
STRONGER CELL DID POP UP WEST OF BODEGA BAY THAT PROMPTED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR (THAT TRIGGERED THE CELL OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS OFF THE EKA COAST) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE GRIDS TO MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM OVER AN INCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS TO 1/3"-2/3" FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SF
BAY REGION, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. RADAR DOES SHOW A
NICE BAND CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MONTEREY COASTLINE, SO NUMBERS
DOWN THERE SHOULD NICELY INCREASE BEFORE THE EVENING IS OVER.

AFTER ABOUT A 24 HOUR BREAK, ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL MOVE TO OUR AREA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTH
BAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE SF REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, AND DOWN TO
MONTEREY BAY AREA SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
RAINFALL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AMOUNTS WE ARE SEEING TODAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO APPROACH 1.5" AT THE COAST,
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER VALUES BEING HIT.
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE LESS WITH THE SECOND STORM COMPARED
TO TODAY, SO AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST. RAIN
WILL END BY SATURDAY EVENING.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. ALSO, THANKSGIVING DAY AT THIS TIME STILL
LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST THURSDAY...DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN WILL SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHTNING DETECTION
HAS PICKED UP ON A CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES (APPROX 200NM WEST
OF KSFO) RIDING IN ON THE COATTAIL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FOCUS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z
THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY WHERE EXACTLY THE TS WILL POP US
THEREFORE OPTED FOR A BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH TO THE FORECAST WITH
VCTS AT THIS TIME. LIGHTER PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES AROUND
20Z-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WIND EXPECTED OT VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS AND -RA EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE...ESP KOAK. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTED N TO NE FLOW
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. -RA EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 21Z-22Z. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BETWEEN 23Z- 03Z. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 201802
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1002 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING IN
THE NORTH BAY AND THEN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO FINE-TUNE THE TIMING FOR THE UPCOMING RAIN. RADAR SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ECHOES NOW OVER SONOMA COUNTY PUSHING INTO NAPA
AND MARIN COUNTIES. LATEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH LOCALLY AROUND 3/4" POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE .15"-.35" FOR MOST URBAN
SPOTS BY THIS EVENING. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
LIFTED VALUES GO TO AROUND MINUS ONE LATER TODAY ALONG THE COAST
WITH MOSGUIDE THUNDERSTORM POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE. IN ADDITION,
SPC ALSO HAS OUR COAST HIGHLIGHTED IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK BOX. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AND POSSIBLY ADD THUNDER TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY IS STILL ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE PRECIP BEGINNING
BEFORE NOON...AND SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN
REACH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PROJECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM RANGE FROM UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UP TO 1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...WITH 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST THURSDAY...DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN WILL SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHTNING DETECTION
HAS PICKED UP ON A CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES (APPROX 200NM WEST
OF KSFO) RIDING IN ON THE COATTAIL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FOCUS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z
THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY WHERE EXACTLY THE TS WILL POP US
THEREFORE OPTED FOR A BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH TO THE FORECAST WITH
VCTS AT THIS TIME. LIGHTER PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES AROUND
20Z-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WIND EXPECTED OT VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS AND -RA EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE...ESP KOAK. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTED N TO NE FLOW
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. -RA EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 21Z-22Z. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BETWEEN 23Z- 03Z. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:38 AM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING
WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 201802
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1002 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING IN
THE NORTH BAY AND THEN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO FINE-TUNE THE TIMING FOR THE UPCOMING RAIN. RADAR SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ECHOES NOW OVER SONOMA COUNTY PUSHING INTO NAPA
AND MARIN COUNTIES. LATEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH LOCALLY AROUND 3/4" POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE .15"-.35" FOR MOST URBAN
SPOTS BY THIS EVENING. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
LIFTED VALUES GO TO AROUND MINUS ONE LATER TODAY ALONG THE COAST
WITH MOSGUIDE THUNDERSTORM POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE. IN ADDITION,
SPC ALSO HAS OUR COAST HIGHLIGHTED IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK BOX. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AND POSSIBLY ADD THUNDER TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY IS STILL ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE PRECIP BEGINNING
BEFORE NOON...AND SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN
REACH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PROJECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM RANGE FROM UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UP TO 1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...WITH 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST THURSDAY...DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN WILL SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHTNING DETECTION
HAS PICKED UP ON A CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES (APPROX 200NM WEST
OF KSFO) RIDING IN ON THE COATTAIL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FOCUS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z
THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY WHERE EXACTLY THE TS WILL POP US
THEREFORE OPTED FOR A BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH TO THE FORECAST WITH
VCTS AT THIS TIME. LIGHTER PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES AROUND
20Z-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WIND EXPECTED OT VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS AND -RA EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE...ESP KOAK. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTED N TO NE FLOW
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. -RA EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 21Z-22Z. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BETWEEN 23Z- 03Z. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:38 AM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING
WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 201632
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
832 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING IN
THE NORTH BAY AND THEN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO FINE-TUNE THE TIMING FOR THE UPCOMING RAIN. RADAR SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ECHOES NOW OVER SONOMA COUNTY PUSHING INTO NAPA
AND MARIN COUNTIES. LATEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH LOCALLY AROUND 3/4" POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE .15"-.35" FOR MOST URBAN
SPOTS BY THIS EVENING. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
LIFTED VALUES GO TO AROUND MINUS ONE LATER TODAY ALONG THE COAST
WITH MOSGUIDE THUNDERSTORM POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE. IN ADDITION,
SPC ALSO HAS OUR COAST HIGHLIGHTED IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK BOX. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AND POSSIBLY ADD THUNDER TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY IS STILL ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE PRECIP BEGINNING
BEFORE NOON...AND SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN
REACH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PROJECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM RANGE FROM UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UP TO 1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...WITH 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:24 AM PST THURSDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT OF A MIX MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...SE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE N
BAY AROUND 19Z THEN SF BAY 20-21Z WITH STEADIER PRECIP
ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. FLOW BECOMES MORE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS AND POSS FG
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONF IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/VF CIGS THIS MORNING WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTION POSSIBLE...ESP KOAK. NEXT ROUND OF -RA WILL ARRIVE
AROUND 19-20Z. N TO NE FLOW DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FOR THE MRY BAY AREA.
TIMING OF MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL BE 21-22Z. PLEASE NOTE: THE
CEILOMETER AT KMRY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE SO OB WILL NOT
REFLECT TAF.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:21 AM PST THURSDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING
WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 201632
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
832 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING IN
THE NORTH BAY AND THEN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO FINE-TUNE THE TIMING FOR THE UPCOMING RAIN. RADAR SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ECHOES NOW OVER SONOMA COUNTY PUSHING INTO NAPA
AND MARIN COUNTIES. LATEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH LOCALLY AROUND 3/4" POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE .15"-.35" FOR MOST URBAN
SPOTS BY THIS EVENING. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
LIFTED VALUES GO TO AROUND MINUS ONE LATER TODAY ALONG THE COAST
WITH MOSGUIDE THUNDERSTORM POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE. IN ADDITION,
SPC ALSO HAS OUR COAST HIGHLIGHTED IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK BOX. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AND POSSIBLY ADD THUNDER TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY IS STILL ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE PRECIP BEGINNING
BEFORE NOON...AND SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN
REACH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PROJECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM RANGE FROM UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UP TO 1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...WITH 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:24 AM PST THURSDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT OF A MIX MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...SE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE N
BAY AROUND 19Z THEN SF BAY 20-21Z WITH STEADIER PRECIP
ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. FLOW BECOMES MORE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS AND POSS FG
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONF IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/VF CIGS THIS MORNING WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTION POSSIBLE...ESP KOAK. NEXT ROUND OF -RA WILL ARRIVE
AROUND 19-20Z. N TO NE FLOW DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FOR THE MRY BAY AREA.
TIMING OF MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL BE 21-22Z. PLEASE NOTE: THE
CEILOMETER AT KMRY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE SO OB WILL NOT
REFLECT TAF.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:21 AM PST THURSDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING
WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 201129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
329 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:06 AM PST THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE
PRECIP BEGINNING BEFORE NOON...AND SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS WILL THEN REACH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM RANGE FROM UP TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UP TO 1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...WITH 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:24 AM PST THURSDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT OF A MIX MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...SE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE N
BAY AROUND 19Z THEN SF BAY 20-21Z WITH STEADIER PRECIP
ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. FLOW BECOMES MORE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS AND POSS FG
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONF IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/VF CIGS THIS MORNING WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTION POSSIBLE...ESP KOAK. NEXT ROUND OF -RA WILL ARRIVE
AROUND 19-20Z. N TO NE FLOW DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FOR THE MRY BAY AREA.
TIMING OF MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL BE 21-22Z. PLEASE NOTE: THE
CEILOMETER AT KMRY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE SO OB WILL NOT
REFLECT TAF.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:21 AM PST THURSDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING
WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 201129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
329 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:06 AM PST THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE
PRECIP BEGINNING BEFORE NOON...AND SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS WILL THEN REACH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM RANGE FROM UP TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UP TO 1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...WITH 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:24 AM PST THURSDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT OF A MIX MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...SE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE N
BAY AROUND 19Z THEN SF BAY 20-21Z WITH STEADIER PRECIP
ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. FLOW BECOMES MORE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS AND POSS FG
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONF IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/VF CIGS THIS MORNING WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTION POSSIBLE...ESP KOAK. NEXT ROUND OF -RA WILL ARRIVE
AROUND 19-20Z. N TO NE FLOW DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FOR THE MRY BAY AREA.
TIMING OF MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL BE 21-22Z. PLEASE NOTE: THE
CEILOMETER AT KMRY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE SO OB WILL NOT
REFLECT TAF.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:21 AM PST THURSDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING
WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 201106
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:06 AM PST THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE
PRECIP BEGINNING BEFORE NOON...AND SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS WILL THEN REACH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM RANGE FROM UP TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UP TO 1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...WITH 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 PM PST WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. MAIN
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY WILL BE
EXTENSIVE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH FROM NW. 06Z PACKAGE FOLLOWED RAP MODEL WITH
BRINGING RAIN INTO NORTH BAY BEFORE LUNCHTIME WHICH IS EVEN FASTER
THAN THE NAM SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST FASTER
ARRIVAL OF RAIN LOOKS GOOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP BY MORNING
WITH LIGHT SE WINDS. LATEST TAF SHOWS -RA DEVELOPING BY 19Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO REFORM BY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
MORNING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:21 AM PST THURSDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING
WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 201106
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:06 AM PST THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE
PRECIP BEGINNING BEFORE NOON...AND SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS WILL THEN REACH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM RANGE FROM UP TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UP TO 1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS...WITH 2"-3" RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST SOUTH...POSSIBLY AROUND 1/2" IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MTN RANGE. SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 PM PST WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. MAIN
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY WILL BE
EXTENSIVE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH FROM NW. 06Z PACKAGE FOLLOWED RAP MODEL WITH
BRINGING RAIN INTO NORTH BAY BEFORE LUNCHTIME WHICH IS EVEN FASTER
THAN THE NAM SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST FASTER
ARRIVAL OF RAIN LOOKS GOOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP BY MORNING
WITH LIGHT SE WINDS. LATEST TAF SHOWS -RA DEVELOPING BY 19Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO REFORM BY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
MORNING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:21 AM PST THURSDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
NW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND INCREASING
WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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