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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 210540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS BACK TO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 210540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS BACK TO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210016
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210016
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 201733
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
BAY DOWN THROUGH THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL..RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH UP TO A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND COASTAL SLOPES.
MANY INLAND AREAS ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE SALINAS VALLEY MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO RAINFALL
AT ALL. AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA... WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...YET CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OR NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR
WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE
MOST LIKELY TO LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE
MOST AROUND SF BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING
THE RIDGE AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS WARM AS WE WERE THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER
70S TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY
MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEING ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF
THE MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED
FROM A BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE
A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF
THE ECMWF (PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE
SATURDAY) FLIPS INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED QUITE A BIT. ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM
PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF
SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY
BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE
PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE
RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE ON
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 201733
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
BAY DOWN THROUGH THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL..RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH UP TO A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND COASTAL SLOPES.
MANY INLAND AREAS ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE SALINAS VALLEY MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO RAINFALL
AT ALL. AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA... WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...YET CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OR NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR
WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE
MOST LIKELY TO LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE
MOST AROUND SF BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING
THE RIDGE AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS WARM AS WE WERE THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER
70S TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY
MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEING ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF
THE MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED
FROM A BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE
A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF
THE ECMWF (PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE
SATURDAY) FLIPS INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED QUITE A BIT. ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM
PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF
SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY
BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE
PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE
RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A NARROW COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS THE RAIN MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. WINDS ARE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TONIGHT THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY AT STS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS TURNING WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE ON
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 201608
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
BAY DOWN THROUGH THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL..RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH UP TO A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND COASTAL SLOPES.
MANY INLAND AREAS ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE SALINAS VALLEY MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO RAINFALL
AT ALL. AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA... WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...YET CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OR NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR
WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE
MOST LIKELY TO LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE
MOST AROUND SF BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING
THE RIDGE AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS WARM AS WE WERE THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER
70S TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY
MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEING ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF
THE MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED
FROM A BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE
A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF
THE ECMWF (PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE
SATURDAY) FLIPS INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED QUITE A BIT. ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM
PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF
SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY
BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE
PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE
RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN TURN LIGHT WESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN ABOUT 16-19Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE MORNING...TURNING WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO
ABOUT 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CLEARING
SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:47 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE ON
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 201154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
454 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR
AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,  WILL ADVANCE ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE MOST LIKELY TO
LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE MOST AROUND SF
BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN
TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WORTH
NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING THE RIDGE
AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS WARM AS WE WERE
THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR
INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S
INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BEING
ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF THE
MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM A
BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF THE ECMWF
(PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE SATURDAY) FLIPS
INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED QUITE A BIT.
ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH
FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW
CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN TURN LIGHT WESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN ABOUT 16-19Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE MORNING...TURNING WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO
ABOUT 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CLEARING
SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE ON
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WATERS TODAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 201000
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR
AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,  WILL ADVANCE ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE MOST LIKELY TO
LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE MOST AROUND SF
BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN
TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WORTH
NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING THE RIDGE
AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS WARM AS WE WERE
THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR
INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S
INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BEING
ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF THE
MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM A
BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF THE ECMWF
(PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE SATURDAY) FLIPS
INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED QUITE A BIT.
ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH
FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW
CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS IS SLOWLY
SPREADING OVER THE SFO BAY AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN
WILL BE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BECOMING MVFR. WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KT BUT
SWITCHING MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS STAYED IN NRN MRY BAY
LEAVING MRY AND SNS CLEAR AT THIS TIME. MORE OFFSHORE STRATUS
MOVING TOWARDS MRY AND SNS WITH IFR CIGS. CIGS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO BE MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST OVER ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS WILL BE
ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 201000
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR
AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,  WILL ADVANCE ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE MOST LIKELY TO
LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE MOST AROUND SF
BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN
TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WORTH
NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING THE RIDGE
AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS WARM AS WE WERE
THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR
INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S
INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BEING
ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF THE
MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM A
BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF THE ECMWF
(PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE SATURDAY) FLIPS
INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED QUITE A BIT.
ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH
FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW
CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS IS SLOWLY
SPREADING OVER THE SFO BAY AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN
WILL BE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BECOMING MVFR. WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KT BUT
SWITCHING MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS STAYED IN NRN MRY BAY
LEAVING MRY AND SNS CLEAR AT THIS TIME. MORE OFFSHORE STRATUS
MOVING TOWARDS MRY AND SNS WITH IFR CIGS. CIGS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO BE MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST OVER ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS WILL BE
ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 201000
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR
AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,  WILL ADVANCE ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE MOST LIKELY TO
LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE MOST AROUND SF
BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN
TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WORTH
NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING THE RIDGE
AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS WARM AS WE WERE
THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR
INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S
INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BEING
ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF THE
MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM A
BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF THE ECMWF
(PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE SATURDAY) FLIPS
INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED QUITE A BIT.
ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH
FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW
CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS IS SLOWLY
SPREADING OVER THE SFO BAY AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN
WILL BE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BECOMING MVFR. WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KT BUT
SWITCHING MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS STAYED IN NRN MRY BAY
LEAVING MRY AND SNS CLEAR AT THIS TIME. MORE OFFSHORE STRATUS
MOVING TOWARDS MRY AND SNS WITH IFR CIGS. CIGS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO BE MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST OVER ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS WILL BE
ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 201000
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR
AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,  WILL ADVANCE ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST THE NORTH BAY LOOKING THE MOST LIKELY TO
LOCALLY PICK UP MORE THAN 1/4" WITH A TENTH AT THE MOST AROUND SF
BAY AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH COMMUNITIES FROM SF DOWN
TO MONTEREY LOOKING AT VERY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WORTH
NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BUILDING THE RIDGE
AND NOW BRING ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS WARM AS WE WERE
THINKING ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS. INSTEAD OF UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR
INLAND SPORTS BY THURSDAY, LOOKS MORE LIKE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD STAY MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S
INSTEAD OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80.

WITH LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE, THE ODDS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BEING
ABLE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER INCREASES, AND NOW A CHUNK OF THE
MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND DEPICT A LONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR MOVING
ACROSS. IN FACT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM (PLUS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN) ALL BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONT TO THE SF BAY REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF REMAINS MUCH DRIER AND ONLY HAS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN
MAKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
GFS AND GEM HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM A
BLOCKING RIDGE, FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND IF THE ECMWF
(PLUS THE CURRENT DRY NAVGEM WHICH ONLY GOES OUT TOE SATURDAY) FLIPS
INTO THE WET CAMP THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED QUITE A BIT.
ALSO WORTH NOTING OFF OUR MODEL SPECTRUM PAGE THAT THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY IS CONSIDERED HIGH
FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOW
CONFIDENCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN, TEMPS SHOULD COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS BY THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT POINT THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS IS SLOWLY
SPREADING OVER THE SFO BAY AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN
WILL BE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BECOMING MVFR. WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KT BUT
SWITCHING MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS STAYED IN NRN MRY BAY
LEAVING MRY AND SNS CLEAR AT THIS TIME. MORE OFFSHORE STRATUS
MOVING TOWARDS MRY AND SNS WITH IFR CIGS. CIGS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO BE MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST OVER ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS WILL BE
ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 200543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA. INCREASING STRATUS
EXPECTED WITH SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST IS NOW BRINGING
RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS ASTORIA OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP. SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THE MODELS STILL
INDICATE ISOLATED RAINFALL THOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR MANY
MEASURABLE TOTALS.

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT
TERM TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS IS SLOWLY
SPREADING OVER THE SFO BAY AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN
WILL BE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BECOMING MVFR. WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KT BUT
SWITCHING MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS STAYED IN NRN MRY BAY
LEAVING MRY AND SNS CLEAR AT THIS TIME. MORE OFFSHORE STRATUS
MOVING TOWARDS MRY AND SNS WITH IFR CIGS. CIGS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO BE MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST OVER ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS WILL BE
ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC/BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 200543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA. INCREASING STRATUS
EXPECTED WITH SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST IS NOW BRINGING
RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS ASTORIA OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP. SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THE MODELS STILL
INDICATE ISOLATED RAINFALL THOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR MANY
MEASURABLE TOTALS.

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT
TERM TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS IS SLOWLY
SPREADING OVER THE SFO BAY AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN
WILL BE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BECOMING MVFR. WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KT BUT
SWITCHING MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS STAYED IN NRN MRY BAY
LEAVING MRY AND SNS CLEAR AT THIS TIME. MORE OFFSHORE STRATUS
MOVING TOWARDS MRY AND SNS WITH IFR CIGS. CIGS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO BE MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST OVER ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS WILL BE
ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC/BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 200347 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
846 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA. INCREASING STRATUS
EXPECTED WITH SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST IS NOW BRINGING
RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS ASTORIA OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP. SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THE MODELS STILL
INDICATE ISOLATED RAINFALL THOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR MANY
MEASURABLE TOTALS.

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT
TERM TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE STRATUS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BUT THE LACK OF AN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SUGGESTS IT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER THE
AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS LOWER
CLOUDS INLAND.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER SRN MRY BAY
SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC/BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 200347 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
846 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA. INCREASING STRATUS
EXPECTED WITH SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST IS NOW BRINGING
RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS ASTORIA OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP. SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THE MODELS STILL
INDICATE ISOLATED RAINFALL THOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR MANY
MEASURABLE TOTALS.

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT
TERM TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE STRATUS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BUT THE LACK OF AN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SUGGESTS IT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER THE
AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS LOWER
CLOUDS INLAND.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER SRN MRY BAY
SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC/BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 200346
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
846 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA. INCREASING STRATUS
EXPECTED WITH SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST IS NOW BRINGING
RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS ASTORIA OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP. SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THE MODELS STILL
INDICATE ISOLATED RAINFALL THOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR MANY
MEASURABLE TOTALS.

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT
TERM TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE STRATUS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BUT THE LACK OF AN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SUGGESTS IT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER THE
AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS LOWER
CLOUDS INLAND.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER SRN MRY BAY
SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 200346
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
846 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA. INCREASING STRATUS
EXPECTED WITH SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST IS NOW BRINGING
RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS ASTORIA OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE LIKELY TO SEE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP. SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THE MODELS STILL
INDICATE ISOLATED RAINFALL THOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR MANY
MEASURABLE TOTALS.

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT
TERM TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE STRATUS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BUT THE LACK OF AN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SUGGESTS IT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER THE
AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS LOWER
CLOUDS INLAND.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER SRN MRY BAY
SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 192340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE STRATUS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BUT THE LACK OF AN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SUGGESTS IT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER THE
AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS LOWER
CLOUDS INLAND.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER SRN MRY BAY
SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 192340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE STRATUS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BUT THE LACK OF AN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SUGGESTS IT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER THE
AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS LOWER
CLOUDS INLAND.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER SRN MRY BAY
SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 192340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE STRATUS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BUT THE LACK OF AN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SUGGESTS IT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER THE
AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS LOWER
CLOUDS INLAND.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER SRN MRY BAY
SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 192340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...COASTAL STRATUS
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE STRATUS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA BUT THE LACK OF AN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SUGGESTS IT WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER THE
AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS LOWER
CLOUDS INLAND.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER SRN MRY BAY
SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS. MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 192149
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
249 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THEY ARE CURRENTLY PERSISTING OVER
THE SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS...ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE
AREAS TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE APPROACH BUT
EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY BY NOON.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. &&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 192149
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
249 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS
OF CLOUDS AT THE COAST GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEARS THE COAST.

RAIN RETURNS TO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE FORECAST TO MOSTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH BAY. EASILY MORE THAN 1/3" COULD FALL OVER THE NORTH BAY
HILLS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS AS YOU GET
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 18Z NAM RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING
DRIER COMPARED TO THE 1Z (WHICH WAS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE).
THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
NORTH OF SF. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, SO FEEL JUSTIFIED IN KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN GOING FOR THE ENTIRE SF BAY REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE UNIMPRESSIVE -- A TENTH OR LESS. FOR SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, ODDS FAVOR NO RAIN FALLING. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE
COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO TEMPS WERE PUSHED UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCE TO THE WEST COAST BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THEY ARE CURRENTLY PERSISTING OVER
THE SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS...ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE
AREAS TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE APPROACH BUT
EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY BY NOON.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. &&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 191742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY BAY BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF MINOR UPDATES
THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND VERY LOW VISIBILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE
SANTA CLARA VALLEY PLUS THE EAST BAY. OUTSIDE OF THAT, LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO BURN-OFF LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S NEAR THE WATER
WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS
OUR CWA. TIMING HAS RAIN STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO LATE IN THE MORNING.WHAT
RAIN IS LEFT WILL BE DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION CLOSE TO
NOON. LATEST GUIDANCE IN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/4" MAY FALL. AROUND
SF BAY, AMOUNTS LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH EVEN LESS FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MAJOR UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY
AIRPORTS. IT`S LIKELY VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER BY
SUNRISE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE PATCHES
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING AND THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ALMOST DUE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE BULK OF ITS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER AS IT MOVES INLAND COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING IN
THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIKELY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND AS
FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY THE NAM FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EVEN THE WETTEST MODEL (NAM) ARE QUITE
LIGHT. WETTEST PORTIONS OF NORTH BAY MAY SEE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH
IN ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NW SONOMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME
SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA BY
MIDWEEK...AND BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE ALONG 135W LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AT LEAST THIS IS THE WHAT THE ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS IS DIFFERENT...KEEPING THE PATTERN MORE
ZONAL AND TRANSITORY...AND BRINGING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE
IN THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED AS LONG AS THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THEY ARE CURRENTLY PERSISTING OVER
THE SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS...ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE
AREAS TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE APPROACH BUT
EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY BY NOON.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:33 AM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES.
A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 191742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY BAY BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF MINOR UPDATES
THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND VERY LOW VISIBILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE
SANTA CLARA VALLEY PLUS THE EAST BAY. OUTSIDE OF THAT, LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO BURN-OFF LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S NEAR THE WATER
WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS
OUR CWA. TIMING HAS RAIN STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO LATE IN THE MORNING.WHAT
RAIN IS LEFT WILL BE DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION CLOSE TO
NOON. LATEST GUIDANCE IN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/4" MAY FALL. AROUND
SF BAY, AMOUNTS LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH EVEN LESS FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MAJOR UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY
AIRPORTS. IT`S LIKELY VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER BY
SUNRISE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE PATCHES
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING AND THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ALMOST DUE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE BULK OF ITS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER AS IT MOVES INLAND COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING IN
THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIKELY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND AS
FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY THE NAM FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EVEN THE WETTEST MODEL (NAM) ARE QUITE
LIGHT. WETTEST PORTIONS OF NORTH BAY MAY SEE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH
IN ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NW SONOMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME
SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA BY
MIDWEEK...AND BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE ALONG 135W LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AT LEAST THIS IS THE WHAT THE ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS IS DIFFERENT...KEEPING THE PATTERN MORE
ZONAL AND TRANSITORY...AND BRINGING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE
IN THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED AS LONG AS THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THEY ARE CURRENTLY PERSISTING OVER
THE SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS...ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE
AREAS TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE APPROACH BUT
EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY BY NOON.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:33 AM PDT SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST DIRECTION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER A FRONT PASSES.
A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 191615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY BAY BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF MINOR UPDATES
THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND VERY LOW VISIBILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE
SANTA CLARA VALLEY PLUS THE EAST BAY. OUTSIDE OF THAT, LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO BURN-OFF LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S NEAR THE WATER
WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS
OUR CWA. TIMING HAS RAIN STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO LATE IN THE MORNING.WHAT
RAIN IS LEFT WILL BE DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION CLOSE TO
NOON. LATEST GUIDANCE IN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/4" MAY FALL. AROUND
SF BAY, AMOUNTS LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH EVEN LESS FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MAJOR UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY
AIRPORTS. IT`S LIKELY VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER BY
SUNRISE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE PATCHES
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING AND THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ALMOST DUE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE BULK OF ITS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER AS IT MOVES INLAND COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING IN
THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIKELY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND AS
FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY THE NAM FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EVEN THE WETTEST MODEL (NAM) ARE QUITE
LIGHT. WETTEST PORTIONS OF NORTH BAY MAY SEE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH
IN ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NW SONOMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME
SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA BY
MIDWEEK...AND BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE ALONG 135W LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AT LEAST THIS IS THE WHAT THE ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS IS DIFFERENT...KEEPING THE PATTERN MORE
ZONAL AND TRANSITORY...AND BRINGING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE
IN THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED AS LONG AS THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...FEW CLOUDS AT 300 HUNDRED FEET IS REPORTED
OTHERWISE IT`S BEEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WILL LET PREVIOUS MVFR
FORECAST FROM 06Z KSFO TAF RIDE AND BELIEVE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS STILL QUITE LIKELY THIS
EARLY MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EITHER VERY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. IFR VSBY EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 191615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY BAY BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF MINOR UPDATES
THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND VERY LOW VISIBILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE
SANTA CLARA VALLEY PLUS THE EAST BAY. OUTSIDE OF THAT, LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO BURN-OFF LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S NEAR THE WATER
WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS
OUR CWA. TIMING HAS RAIN STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO LATE IN THE MORNING.WHAT
RAIN IS LEFT WILL BE DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION CLOSE TO
NOON. LATEST GUIDANCE IN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/4" MAY FALL. AROUND
SF BAY, AMOUNTS LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH EVEN LESS FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MAJOR UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY
AIRPORTS. IT`S LIKELY VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER BY
SUNRISE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE PATCHES
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING AND THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ALMOST DUE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE BULK OF ITS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER AS IT MOVES INLAND COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING IN
THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIKELY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND AS
FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY THE NAM FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EVEN THE WETTEST MODEL (NAM) ARE QUITE
LIGHT. WETTEST PORTIONS OF NORTH BAY MAY SEE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH
IN ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NW SONOMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME
SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA BY
MIDWEEK...AND BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE ALONG 135W LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AT LEAST THIS IS THE WHAT THE ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS IS DIFFERENT...KEEPING THE PATTERN MORE
ZONAL AND TRANSITORY...AND BRINGING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE
IN THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED AS LONG AS THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...FEW CLOUDS AT 300 HUNDRED FEET IS REPORTED
OTHERWISE IT`S BEEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WILL LET PREVIOUS MVFR
FORECAST FROM 06Z KSFO TAF RIDE AND BELIEVE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS STILL QUITE LIKELY THIS
EARLY MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EITHER VERY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. IFR VSBY EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 191148
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
448 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY BAY BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE
NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORTS. IT`S LIKELY VISIBILITIES WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER BY SUNRISE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS THROUGH MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING AND THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ALMOST DUE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE BULK OF ITS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER AS IT MOVES INLAND COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING IN
THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIKELY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND AS
FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY THE NAM FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EVEN THE WETTEST MODEL (NAM) ARE QUITE
LIGHT. WETTEST PORTIONS OF NORTH BAY MAY SEE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH
IN ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NW SONOMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME
SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA BY
MIDWEEK...AND BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE ALONG 135W LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AT LEAST THIS IS THE WHAT THE ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS IS DIFFERENT...KEEPING THE PATTERN MORE
ZONAL AND TRANSITORY...AND BRINGING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE
IN THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED AS LONG AS THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...FEW CLOUDS AT 300 HUNDRED FEET IS REPORTED
OTHERWISE IT`S BEEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WILL LET PREVIOUS MVFR
FORECAST FROM 06Z KSFO TAF RIDE AND BELIEVE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS STILL QUITE LIKELY THIS
EARLY MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EITHER VERY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. IFR VSBY EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 191148
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
448 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY BAY BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE
NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORTS. IT`S LIKELY VISIBILITIES WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER BY SUNRISE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS THROUGH MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING AND THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ALMOST DUE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE BULK OF ITS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER AS IT MOVES INLAND COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING IN
THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIKELY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND AS
FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY THE NAM FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EVEN THE WETTEST MODEL (NAM) ARE QUITE
LIGHT. WETTEST PORTIONS OF NORTH BAY MAY SEE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH
IN ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NW SONOMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME
SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA BY
MIDWEEK...AND BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE ALONG 135W LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AT LEAST THIS IS THE WHAT THE ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS IS DIFFERENT...KEEPING THE PATTERN MORE
ZONAL AND TRANSITORY...AND BRINGING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE
IN THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED AS LONG AS THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...FEW CLOUDS AT 300 HUNDRED FEET IS REPORTED
OTHERWISE IT`S BEEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WILL LET PREVIOUS MVFR
FORECAST FROM 06Z KSFO TAF RIDE AND BELIEVE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS STILL QUITE LIKELY THIS
EARLY MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EITHER VERY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. IFR VSBY EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 191018
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
318 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY BAY BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE
NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORTS. IT`S LIKELY VISIBILITIES WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER BY SUNRISE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS THROUGH MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING AND THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ALMOST DUE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE BULK OF ITS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER AS IT MOVES INLAND COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING IN
THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIKELY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND AS
FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY THE NAM FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EVEN THE WETTEST MODEL (NAM) ARE QUITE
LIGHT. WETTEST PORTIONS OF NORTH BAY MAY SEE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH
IN ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NW SONOMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME
SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA BY
MIDWEEK...AND BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE ALONG 135W LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AT LEAST THIS IS THE WHAT THE ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS IS DIFFERENT...KEEPING THE PATTERN MORE
ZONAL AND TRANSITORY...AND BRINGING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE
IN THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED AS LONG AS THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE
INDICATES LOW CLOUDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND HAS PENETRATED
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA AFTER 08Z. TIMING OF CLEARING SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER. LATEST NAM
MODEL INDICATES CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE GFS HAS NO CIGS. LATEST TAFS FORECAST CLEARING
LATE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z. IFR FOR CIGS
AND VSBY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 191018
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
318 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY BAY BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY. WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE
NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORTS. IT`S LIKELY VISIBILITIES WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER BY SUNRISE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS THROUGH MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING AND THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS MAY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ALMOST DUE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE BULK OF ITS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OTHER MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER AS IT MOVES INLAND COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING IN
THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIKELY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BY MID MORNING MONDAY...AND AS
FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY THE NAM FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EVEN THE WETTEST MODEL (NAM) ARE QUITE
LIGHT. WETTEST PORTIONS OF NORTH BAY MAY SEE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH
IN ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NW SONOMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME
SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA BY
MIDWEEK...AND BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE ALONG 135W LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AT LEAST THIS IS THE WHAT THE ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS IS DIFFERENT...KEEPING THE PATTERN MORE
ZONAL AND TRANSITORY...AND BRINGING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE
IN THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED AS LONG AS THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE
INDICATES LOW CLOUDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND HAS PENETRATED
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA AFTER 08Z. TIMING OF CLEARING SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER. LATEST NAM
MODEL INDICATES CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE GFS HAS NO CIGS. LATEST TAFS FORECAST CLEARING
LATE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z. IFR FOR CIGS
AND VSBY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 190549
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1049 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY...DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMS.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTH BAY COAST. THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST WITH EVENING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS...COUPLED WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SF BAY
AREA WHERE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. THE
MORE SOUTHERLY INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE TOMORROW.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS TROUGH
STEADILY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH BAY COASTAL AREAS BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH BAY DURING
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS BIG SUR BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL
PRECIP ENDS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH
BAY...A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM MONTEREY BAY
SOUTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND AROUND MIDWEEK. AFTER COOLING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE RAIN IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. BUT CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT RAIN MAY
REACH INTO THE NORTH BAY BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE
INDICATES LOW CLOUDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND HAS PENETRATED
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA AFTER 08Z. TIMING OF CLEARING SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER. LATEST NAM
MODEL INDICATES CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE GFS HAS NO CIGS. LATEST TAFS FORECAST CLEARING
LATE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z. IFR FOR CIGS
AND VSBY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 190549
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1049 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY...DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMS.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTH BAY COAST. THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST WITH EVENING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS...COUPLED WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SF BAY
AREA WHERE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. THE
MORE SOUTHERLY INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE TOMORROW.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS TROUGH
STEADILY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH BAY COASTAL AREAS BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH BAY DURING
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS BIG SUR BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL
PRECIP ENDS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH
BAY...A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM MONTEREY BAY
SOUTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND AROUND MIDWEEK. AFTER COOLING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE RAIN IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. BUT CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT RAIN MAY
REACH INTO THE NORTH BAY BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE
INDICATES LOW CLOUDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND HAS PENETRATED
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA AFTER 08Z. TIMING OF CLEARING SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER. LATEST NAM
MODEL INDICATES CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE GFS HAS NO CIGS. LATEST TAFS FORECAST CLEARING
LATE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z. IFR FOR CIGS
AND VSBY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY...DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMS.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTH BAY COAST. THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST WITH EVENING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS...COUPLED WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SF BAY
AREA WHERE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. THE
MORE SOUTHERLY INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE TOMORROW.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS TROUGH
STEADILY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH BAY COASTAL AREAS BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH BAY DURING
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS BIG SUR BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL
PRECIP ENDS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH
BAY...A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM MONTEREY BAY
SOUTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND AROUND MIDWEEK. AFTER COOLING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE RAIN IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. BUT CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT RAIN MAY
REACH INTO THE NORTH BAY BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES CLEAR OVER THE
AREA BUT THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW A
MARINE INVERSION TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. LATEST NAM AND GFS
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 04Z.
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 190341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY...DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMS.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTH BAY COAST. THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST WITH EVENING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS...COUPLED WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SF BAY
AREA WHERE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. THE
MORE SOUTHERLY INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE TOMORROW.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS TROUGH
STEADILY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH BAY COASTAL AREAS BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH BAY DURING
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS BIG SUR BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL
PRECIP ENDS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH
BAY...A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM MONTEREY BAY
SOUTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND AROUND MIDWEEK. AFTER COOLING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE RAIN IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. BUT CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT RAIN MAY
REACH INTO THE NORTH BAY BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES CLEAR OVER THE
AREA BUT THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW A
MARINE INVERSION TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. LATEST NAM AND GFS
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 04Z.
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY...DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMS.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTH BAY COAST. THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST WITH EVENING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS...COUPLED WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SF BAY
AREA WHERE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. THE
MORE SOUTHERLY INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE TOMORROW.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS TROUGH
STEADILY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH BAY COASTAL AREAS BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH BAY DURING
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS BIG SUR BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL
PRECIP ENDS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH
BAY...A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM MONTEREY BAY
SOUTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND AROUND MIDWEEK. AFTER COOLING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE RAIN IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. BUT CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT RAIN MAY
REACH INTO THE NORTH BAY BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES CLEAR OVER THE
AREA BUT THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW A
MARINE INVERSION TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. LATEST NAM AND GFS
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 04Z.
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 190341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY...DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMS.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTH BAY COAST. THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST WITH EVENING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS...COUPLED WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SF BAY
AREA WHERE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. THE
MORE SOUTHERLY INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE TOMORROW.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS TROUGH
STEADILY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH BAY COASTAL AREAS BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH BAY DURING
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS BIG SUR BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL
PRECIP ENDS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH
BAY...A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SF
BAY AREA...AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM MONTEREY BAY
SOUTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND AROUND MIDWEEK. AFTER COOLING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE RAIN IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. BUT CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT RAIN MAY
REACH INTO THE NORTH BAY BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES CLEAR OVER THE
AREA BUT THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW A
MARINE INVERSION TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. LATEST NAM AND GFS
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 04Z.
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 182341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAST
MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HAS TURNED ONSHORE AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILL IN NEAR THE COAST AFTER DARK AS THE AIRMASS COOLS.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
PER HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS SUPPORT THE HRRR AND NAM
SOLUTIONS.

THE MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED OUT TODAY...BUT WILL REDEVELOP WEAKLY
AND SHOULD BE VARIABLE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT. SHOULD
HAVE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO THE NORTH WITH FASTER RETURN OF
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.

STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM THE BAY AREA AND SURROUNDINGS
SUNDAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. MAY
ACTUALLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAN THE NORTH.

STRATUS WILL PUSH WELL INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AND MIX OUT BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE OCCURS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAST MOVING POTENT
VORT MAX WITH PV TROF THAT SHOULD HOLD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOGETHER AT LEAST INTO THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE BAY
AREA EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AS UPPER SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH BAY AND TAPER RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH.
THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...BUT HAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

A COOL AND FAIRLY MOIST WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES CLEAR OVER THE
AREA BUT THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW A
MARINE INVERSION TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. LATEST NAM AND GFS
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 04Z.
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 182341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAST
MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HAS TURNED ONSHORE AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILL IN NEAR THE COAST AFTER DARK AS THE AIRMASS COOLS.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
PER HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS SUPPORT THE HRRR AND NAM
SOLUTIONS.

THE MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED OUT TODAY...BUT WILL REDEVELOP WEAKLY
AND SHOULD BE VARIABLE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT. SHOULD
HAVE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO THE NORTH WITH FASTER RETURN OF
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.

STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM THE BAY AREA AND SURROUNDINGS
SUNDAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. MAY
ACTUALLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAN THE NORTH.

STRATUS WILL PUSH WELL INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AND MIX OUT BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE OCCURS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAST MOVING POTENT
VORT MAX WITH PV TROF THAT SHOULD HOLD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOGETHER AT LEAST INTO THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE BAY
AREA EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AS UPPER SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH BAY AND TAPER RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH.
THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...BUT HAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

A COOL AND FAIRLY MOIST WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES CLEAR OVER THE
AREA BUT THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW A
MARINE INVERSION TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. LATEST NAM AND GFS
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 04Z.
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 182104
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
204 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAST
MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HAS TURNED ONSHORE AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILL IN NEAR THE COAST AFTER DARK AS THE AIRMASS COOLS.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
PER HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS SUPPORT THE HRRR AND NAM
SOLUTIONS.

THE MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED OUT TODAY...BUT WILL REDEVELOP WEAKLY
AND SHOULD BE VARIABLE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT. SHOULD
HAVE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO THE NORTH WITH FASTER RETURN OF
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.

STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM THE BAY AREA AND SURROUNDINGS
SUNDAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. MAY
ACTUALLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAN THE NORTH.

STRATUS WILL PUSH WELL INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AND MIX OUT BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE OCCURS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAST MOVING POTENT
VORT MAX WITH PV TROF THAT SHOULD HOLD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOGETHER AT LEAST INTO THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE BAY
AREA EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AS UPPER SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH BAY AND TAPER RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH.
THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...BUT HAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

A COOL AND FAIRLY MOIST WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS
REFORMING OVER THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 182104
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
204 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAST
MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HAS TURNED ONSHORE AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILL IN NEAR THE COAST AFTER DARK AS THE AIRMASS COOLS.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
PER HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS SUPPORT THE HRRR AND NAM
SOLUTIONS.

THE MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED OUT TODAY...BUT WILL REDEVELOP WEAKLY
AND SHOULD BE VARIABLE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT. SHOULD
HAVE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO THE NORTH WITH FASTER RETURN OF
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.

STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM THE BAY AREA AND SURROUNDINGS
SUNDAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. MAY
ACTUALLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAN THE NORTH.

STRATUS WILL PUSH WELL INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AND MIX OUT BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE OCCURS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAST MOVING POTENT
VORT MAX WITH PV TROF THAT SHOULD HOLD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOGETHER AT LEAST INTO THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE BAY
AREA EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AS UPPER SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH BAY AND TAPER RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH.
THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...BUT HAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

A COOL AND FAIRLY MOIST WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS
REFORMING OVER THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 181730
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1030 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SONOMA COUNTY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS
THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...WEAKENING TROF
OVERHEAD IS EVIDENT WITH OFFSHORE CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
COAST. THE ONLY AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ARE SONOMA
COUNTY AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOTS OF 70S FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
QUITE HIGH...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRYING AS THE TROF OVERHEAD
SHEARS APART AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY TODAY THEN TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. WEAK MARINE LAYER RETURNS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STRATUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT TREND OF LATEST NAM SUPPORTS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW SFO TO SAC THRU SUNDAY.

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS WAS A REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL ON TRACK FOR A COLD FRONT TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST ON MONDAY WITH MORE PUNCH THAN THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
SHOULD SEE GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY
NORTH BAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS DO NOT
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE THREAT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS
IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN
FEATURE SLOWLY FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST. THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH BAY AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER
THINGS OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY
LAYER IN THE 1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS
REFORMING OVER THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS BY 12Z SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 181548
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
848 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SONOMA COUNTY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS
THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...WEAKENING TROF
OVERHEAD IS EVIDENT WITH OFFSHORE CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
COAST. THE ONLY AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ARE SONOMA
COUNTY AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOTS OF 70S FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
QUITE HIGH...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRYING AS THE TROF OVERHEAD
SHEARS APART AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY TODAY THEN TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. WEAK MARINE LAYER RETURNS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STRATUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT TREND OF LATEST NAM SUPPORTS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW SFO TO SAC THRU SUNDAY.

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS WAS A REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL ON TRACK FOR A COLD FRONT TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST ON MONDAY WITH MORE PUNCH THAN THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
SHOULD SEE GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY
NORTH BAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS DO NOT
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE THREAT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS
IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN
FEATURE SLOWLY FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST. THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH BAY AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER
THINGS OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY
LAYER IN THE 1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KSTS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUIDANCE KEEPS WANTING TO BRING
CLOUDS BACK TO KMRY AND KSNS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE SKC
AND DO NOT AGREE WITH MODELS. THEREFORE WILL GO VFR THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND
04Z TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 181548
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
848 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SONOMA COUNTY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS
THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...WEAKENING TROF
OVERHEAD IS EVIDENT WITH OFFSHORE CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
COAST. THE ONLY AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ARE SONOMA
COUNTY AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOTS OF 70S FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
QUITE HIGH...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRYING AS THE TROF OVERHEAD
SHEARS APART AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY TODAY THEN TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. WEAK MARINE LAYER RETURNS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STRATUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT TREND OF LATEST NAM SUPPORTS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW SFO TO SAC THRU SUNDAY.

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS WAS A REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL ON TRACK FOR A COLD FRONT TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST ON MONDAY WITH MORE PUNCH THAN THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
SHOULD SEE GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY
NORTH BAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS DO NOT
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE THREAT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS
IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN
FEATURE SLOWLY FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST. THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH BAY AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER
THINGS OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY
LAYER IN THE 1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KSTS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUIDANCE KEEPS WANTING TO BRING
CLOUDS BACK TO KMRY AND KSNS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE SKC
AND DO NOT AGREE WITH MODELS. THEREFORE WILL GO VFR THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND
04Z TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 181548
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
848 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SONOMA COUNTY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS
THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...WEAKENING TROF
OVERHEAD IS EVIDENT WITH OFFSHORE CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
COAST. THE ONLY AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ARE SONOMA
COUNTY AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOTS OF 70S FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
QUITE HIGH...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRYING AS THE TROF OVERHEAD
SHEARS APART AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY TODAY THEN TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. WEAK MARINE LAYER RETURNS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STRATUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT TREND OF LATEST NAM SUPPORTS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW SFO TO SAC THRU SUNDAY.

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS WAS A REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL ON TRACK FOR A COLD FRONT TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST ON MONDAY WITH MORE PUNCH THAN THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
SHOULD SEE GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY
NORTH BAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS DO NOT
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE THREAT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS
IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN
FEATURE SLOWLY FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST. THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH BAY AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER
THINGS OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY
LAYER IN THE 1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KSTS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUIDANCE KEEPS WANTING TO BRING
CLOUDS BACK TO KMRY AND KSNS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE SKC
AND DO NOT AGREE WITH MODELS. THEREFORE WILL GO VFR THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND
04Z TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 181548
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
848 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SONOMA COUNTY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS
THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...WEAKENING TROF
OVERHEAD IS EVIDENT WITH OFFSHORE CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
COAST. THE ONLY AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ARE SONOMA
COUNTY AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOTS OF 70S FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
QUITE HIGH...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRYING AS THE TROF OVERHEAD
SHEARS APART AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY TODAY THEN TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. WEAK MARINE LAYER RETURNS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STRATUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT TREND OF LATEST NAM SUPPORTS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW SFO TO SAC THRU SUNDAY.

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS WAS A REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL ON TRACK FOR A COLD FRONT TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST ON MONDAY WITH MORE PUNCH THAN THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
SHOULD SEE GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY
NORTH BAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS DO NOT
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE THREAT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS
IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN
FEATURE SLOWLY FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST. THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH BAY AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER
THINGS OFF QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY
LAYER IN THE 1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KSTS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUIDANCE KEEPS WANTING TO BRING
CLOUDS BACK TO KMRY AND KSNS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE SKC
AND DO NOT AGREE WITH MODELS. THEREFORE WILL GO VFR THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND
04Z TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 181132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS WILL AGAIN
BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

CURRENTLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF THE FIZZLED WEAK STORM SYSTEM
ARE LINGERING IN THE FORM OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SONOMA COUNTY. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OFF
THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED OVERNIGHT AS
A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE SLOWLY
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. THE
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY
AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER THINGS OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY LAYER IN THE
1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE
700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KSTS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUIDANCE KEEPS WANTING TO BRING
CLOUDS BACK TO KMRY AND KSNS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE SKC
AND DO NOT AGREE WITH MODELS. THEREFORE WILL GO VFR THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND
04Z TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 181132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS WILL AGAIN
BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

CURRENTLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF THE FIZZLED WEAK STORM SYSTEM
ARE LINGERING IN THE FORM OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SONOMA COUNTY. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OFF
THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED OVERNIGHT AS
A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE SLOWLY
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. THE
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY
AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER THINGS OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY LAYER IN THE
1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE
700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KSTS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUIDANCE KEEPS WANTING TO BRING
CLOUDS BACK TO KMRY AND KSNS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE SKC
AND DO NOT AGREE WITH MODELS. THEREFORE WILL GO VFR THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND
04Z TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 181132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS WILL AGAIN
BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

CURRENTLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF THE FIZZLED WEAK STORM SYSTEM
ARE LINGERING IN THE FORM OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SONOMA COUNTY. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OFF
THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED OVERNIGHT AS
A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE SLOWLY
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. THE
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY
AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER THINGS OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY LAYER IN THE
1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE
700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KSTS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUIDANCE KEEPS WANTING TO BRING
CLOUDS BACK TO KMRY AND KSNS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE SKC
AND DO NOT AGREE WITH MODELS. THEREFORE WILL GO VFR THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND
04Z TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 181132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS WILL AGAIN
BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

CURRENTLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF THE FIZZLED WEAK STORM SYSTEM
ARE LINGERING IN THE FORM OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SONOMA COUNTY. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OFF
THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED OVERNIGHT AS
A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE SLOWLY
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. THE
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY
AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER THINGS OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY LAYER IN THE
1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE
700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KSTS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUIDANCE KEEPS WANTING TO BRING
CLOUDS BACK TO KMRY AND KSNS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE SKC
AND DO NOT AGREE WITH MODELS. THEREFORE WILL GO VFR THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND
04Z TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 181048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
348 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS WILL AGAIN
BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

CURRENTLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF THE FIZZLED WEAK STORM SYSTEM
ARE LINGERING IN THE FORM OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SONOMA COUNTY. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OFF
THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED OVERNIGHT AS
A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE SLOWLY
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. THE
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY
AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER THINGS OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY LAYER IN THE
1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE
700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PDT FRIDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHING WHILE WEAKENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY MEAGER IN THE
NORTH BAY AND CHANCES OF RAIN ARE DIMINISHING IN THE SFO BAY AREA.
BEST CHANCES OF GETTING ANY RAIN IN THE SFO BAY AREA WILL BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRYING CONDITIONS BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREDOMINATE WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE
4000 FEET. HOWEVER WITH HAF REPORTING A CIG OF 1900 FEET...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS INTO SFO OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN FROM 08Z-12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER 08Z AS THE FRONT MOVES IN BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
BELOW 10 KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES AFTER
10Z WHERE CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AND THERE COULD BE LOCAL DRIZZLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 181048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
348 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS WILL AGAIN
BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

CURRENTLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF THE FIZZLED WEAK STORM SYSTEM
ARE LINGERING IN THE FORM OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SONOMA COUNTY. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OFF
THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED OVERNIGHT AS
A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE SLOWLY
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. THE
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY
AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER THINGS OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY LAYER IN THE
1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE
700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PDT FRIDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHING WHILE WEAKENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY MEAGER IN THE
NORTH BAY AND CHANCES OF RAIN ARE DIMINISHING IN THE SFO BAY AREA.
BEST CHANCES OF GETTING ANY RAIN IN THE SFO BAY AREA WILL BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRYING CONDITIONS BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREDOMINATE WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE
4000 FEET. HOWEVER WITH HAF REPORTING A CIG OF 1900 FEET...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS INTO SFO OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN FROM 08Z-12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER 08Z AS THE FRONT MOVES IN BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
BELOW 10 KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES AFTER
10Z WHERE CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AND THERE COULD BE LOCAL DRIZZLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 181048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
348 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS WILL AGAIN
BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

CURRENTLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF THE FIZZLED WEAK STORM SYSTEM
ARE LINGERING IN THE FORM OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SONOMA COUNTY. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OFF
THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED OVERNIGHT AS
A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE SLOWLY
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. THE
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY
AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER THINGS OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY LAYER IN THE
1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE
700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PDT FRIDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHING WHILE WEAKENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY MEAGER IN THE
NORTH BAY AND CHANCES OF RAIN ARE DIMINISHING IN THE SFO BAY AREA.
BEST CHANCES OF GETTING ANY RAIN IN THE SFO BAY AREA WILL BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRYING CONDITIONS BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREDOMINATE WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE
4000 FEET. HOWEVER WITH HAF REPORTING A CIG OF 1900 FEET...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS INTO SFO OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN FROM 08Z-12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER 08Z AS THE FRONT MOVES IN BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
BELOW 10 KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES AFTER
10Z WHERE CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AND THERE COULD BE LOCAL DRIZZLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 181048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
348 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS WILL AGAIN
BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

CURRENTLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF THE FIZZLED WEAK STORM SYSTEM
ARE LINGERING IN THE FORM OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SONOMA COUNTY. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORM OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
BAY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECTING DRYING AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH BY 18Z THIS MORNING AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OFF
THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPPRESSED OVERNIGHT AS
A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE SLOWLY
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. THE
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY
AGAIN. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS NORTH BUT WILL AGAIN TAPER THINGS OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL RH FIELDS DEPICT A DRY LAYER IN THE
1000-700 MB LEVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT NEVER MOISTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE
700 MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THE LIFT WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 00-06Z TUE.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST QUICKLY AND THEN BY TUESDAY THE MODELS
AGREE IN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IT WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
CONSIDERABLY TO +17 TO +20 C BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WELL INLAND...70S ON
THE COAST AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER TEMPERATURE FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PDT FRIDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHING WHILE WEAKENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY MEAGER IN THE
NORTH BAY AND CHANCES OF RAIN ARE DIMINISHING IN THE SFO BAY AREA.
BEST CHANCES OF GETTING ANY RAIN IN THE SFO BAY AREA WILL BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRYING CONDITIONS BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WILL PREDOMINATE WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE
4000 FEET. HOWEVER WITH HAF REPORTING A CIG OF 1900 FEET...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS INTO SFO OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN FROM 08Z-12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER 08Z AS THE FRONT MOVES IN BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
BELOW 10 KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES AFTER
10Z WHERE CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AND THERE COULD BE LOCAL DRIZZLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

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