000
FXUS66 KMTR 251804
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:43 AM PDT SATURDAY...MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BROKEN STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOST PREVALENT SAN MATEO
COAST...EAST BAY...MONTEREY THROUGH BOTH THE CARMEL AND SALINAS
VALLEYS. PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVERHEAD AND A MODERATE 3-4 MB
N-S GRADIENT IS LIKE PREVENTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SEASONABLY
COOL. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST
AND 70S INLAND...WHICH IS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
UPPER LOWS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN POSSIBLY MORE STRATUS.
IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM INDICATES LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL ON SUNDAY AS WELL.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES ON
MEMORIAL DAY. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW 12Z MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER ON THE
ONSET OF PRECIP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OF THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS
SOLUTIONS...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AND THIS
CONTRIBUTES TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BRING IT
FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS. TIMING IS IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH EVEN THE ECMWF SLOWING THE ONSET FOR THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SO ITS LIKELY THAT MONDAY
MORNING AND EARLY MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE BAY
AREA NORTH WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS 1-1.25 INCHES SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT
ALONG WITH THE LIFT PRESENT FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
UPPER TROUGH ENERGY. THE MODELS DO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES LATER MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT EVEN SO THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE AMOUNTS WHICH WILL NOT BE GREAT. SO THE
BOTTOM LINE WITH THE MONDAY FORECAST IS THAT THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING BEING MORE FOCUSED ON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN
REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THE THE NORTH BAY
LOOKS IN LINE FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FROM
THE BAY SOUTHWARD.
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS LEAVES OUR AREA
IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. FOR NOW
WILL REFLECT A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOW MID WEEK
WARMING TREND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HOTTER WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:04 AM PDT SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. CIGS HAVE
RETREATED FROM SF BAY BUT LINGERING ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WEST
WINDS AT KSFO. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS INTRUSION LATE
TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS TO
RETURN AFTER 06Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...KSNS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SHORTLY.
CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT KMRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPREADING BACK INLAND
AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/LJ
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 251545
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:43 AM PDT SATURDAY...MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BROKEN STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOST PREVALENT SAN MATEO
COAST...EAST BAY...MONTEREY THROUGH BOTH THE CARMEL AND SALINAS
VALLEYS. PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVERHEAD AND A MODERATE 3-4 MB
N-S GRADIENT IS LIKE PREVENTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SEASONABLY
COOL. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST
AND 70S INLAND...WHICH IS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
UPPER LOWS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN POSSIBLY MORE STRATUS.
IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM INDICATES LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL ON SUNDAY AS WELL.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES ON
MEMORIAL DAY. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW 12Z MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER ON THE
ONSET OF PRECIP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OF THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS
SOLUTIONS...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AND THIS
CONTRIBUTES TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BRING IT
FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS. TIMING IS IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH EVEN THE ECMWF SLOWING THE ONSET FOR THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SO ITS LIKELY THAT MONDAY
MORNING AND EARLY MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE BAY
AREA NORTH WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS 1-1.25 INCHES SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT
ALONG WITH THE LIFT PRESENT FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
UPPER TROUGH ENERGY. THE MODELS DO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES LATER MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT EVEN SO THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE AMOUNTS WHICH WILL NOT BE GREAT. SO THE
BOTTOM LINE WITH THE MONDAY FORECAST IS THAT THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING BEING MORE FOCUSED ON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN
REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THE THE NORTH BAY
LOOKS IN LINE FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FROM
THE BAY SOUTHWARD.
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS LEAVES OUR AREA
IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. FOR NOW
WILL REFLECT A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOW MID WEEK
WARMING TREND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HOTTER WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT AND THE SUOMI DAY NIGHT VIS IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG
THE SAN FRANCISCO COAST AND MONTEREY BAY AREA. STRATUS IS ALSO
APPARENT IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IN
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY NEAR KOAK AND
SLIGHTLY EAST OF KSFO AND THE APPROACH. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY AT THE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS THE
SEA BREEZE SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PASS OVER KSFO FROM TIME TO TIME
THIS MORNING WHILE PREVAILING AT KOAK THROUGH 1800Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT BY 1700Z WITH FURTHER INCREASES TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KT BY 2200Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 1800Z AT KSNS. CIGS MAY STICK AROUND ALL DAY
AT KMRY TODAY WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO OVC020 BY 1700Z. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AS THE SEA BREEZE ESTABLISHES ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY IN EFFECT AT 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/LJ
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 251141
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 AM PDT SATURDAY...
500 MB PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON THE CURRENT H20 VAPOR LOOP.
THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE TIED INTO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL DAYS OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER THAN
ZERO POPS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXCEPT IN THE UP SLOPE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SLOPES OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BE WRUNG OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED AND PREVENT A WELL
DEFINED MARINE LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...A
SLIGHT COOLING OF THE AREA WILL TAKE WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION
DURING THE DAY.
THE FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES ON MEMORIAL
DAY. THE GENERAL TREND HAS CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER ON THE ONSET OF
PRECIP. OF THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS SOLUTIONS...THERE REMAINS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BRING IT FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TIMING IS IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVEN THE ECMWF
SLOWING THE ONSET FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z
MONDAY. SO ITS LIKELY THAT MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MORNING WILL
BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE BAY AREA NORTH WHERE SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS 1-1.25 INCHES
SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG WITH THE LIFT
PRESENT FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY.
THE MODELS DO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATER
MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT EVEN SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE AMOUNTS WHICH WILL NOT BE GREAT. SO THE BOTTOM LINE WITH THE
MONDAY FORECAST IS THAT THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
BEING MORE FOCUSED ON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION THE THE NORTH BAY LOOKS IN LINE FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FROM THE BAY SOUTHWARD.
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS LEAVES OUR AREA
IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. FOR NOW
WILL REFLECT A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOW MID WEEK
WARMING TREND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HOTTER WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT AND THE SUOMI DAY NIGHT VIS IMAGE SHOW STRATUS ALONG
THE SAN FRANCISCO COAST AND MONTEREY BAY AREA. STRATUS IS ALSO
APPARENT IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IN
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY NEAR KOAK AND
SLIGHTLY EAST OF KSFO AND THE APPROACH. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY AT THE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS THE
SEA BREEZE SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PASS OVER KSFO FROM TIME TO TIME
THIS MORNING WHILE PREVAILING AT KOAK THROUGH 1800Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT BY 1700Z WITH FURTHER INCREASES TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KT BY 2200Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 1800Z AT KSNS. CIGS MAY STICK AROUND ALL DAY
AT KMRY TODAY WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO OVC020 BY 1700Z. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AS THE SEA BREEZE ESTABLISHES ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 5 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 251008
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
308 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 AM PDT SATURDAY...
500 MB PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON THE CURRENT H20 VAPOR LOOP.
THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE TIED INTO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL DAYS OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER THAN
ZERO POPS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXCEPT IN THE UP SLOPE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SLOPES OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BE WRUNG OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED AND PREVENT A WELL
DEFINED MARINE LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...A
SLIGHT COOLING OF THE AREA WILL TAKE WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION
DURING THE DAY.
THE FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES ON MEMORIAL
DAY. THE GENERAL TREND HAS CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER ON THE ONSET OF
PRECIP. OF THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS SOLUTIONS...THERE REMAINS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BRING IT FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TIMING IS IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVEN THE ECMWF
SLOWING THE ONSET FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z
MONDAY. SO ITS LIKELY THAT MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MORNING WILL
BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE BAY AREA NORTH WHERE SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. PERCIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS 1-1.25 INCHES
SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG WITH THE LIFT
PRESENT FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY.
THE MODELS DO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATER
MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT EVEN SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE AMOUNTS WHICH WILL NOT BE GREAT. SO THE BOTTOM LINE WITH THE
MONDAY FORECAST IS THAT THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
BEING MORE FOCUSED ON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION THE THE NORTH BAY LOOKS IN LINE FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FROM THE BAY SOUTHWARD.
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS LEAVES OUR AREA
IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. FOR NOW
WILL REFLECT A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOW MID WEEK
WARMING TREND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HOTTER WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. VFR
IS HOLDING SO FAR BUT LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED. VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FORECAST THIS EVENING. IFR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 5 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: SMITH
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 250551
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...CONTINUED COOL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
IS INCREASING...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS
BEEN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE MIDWEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN CONTINUED COOLER-THAN-
NORMAL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY INLAND...THROUGH THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A REASONABLY GOOD
CHANCE THAT RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. IN
FACT...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE OCEAN...ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. SKY GRIDS WERE
UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WE MAY SEE SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP ON NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
RANGES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS COASTAL AREAS IN GENERAL. BUT
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SITUATION WITH WIDESPREAD FOG NEAR SEA
LEVEL THAT WOULD OCCUR WITH A MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. AND COOL
ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD MEAN LITTLE CHANCE WE WILL SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE LAYER. EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COOL ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH WITH DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH
SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE SF BAY
AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND THOUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM DOES NOT DIG THE UPPER TROUGH NEARLY AS
FAR TO THE SOUTH...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...AND MOSTLY WASHES OUT
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO IT REACHING OUR CWA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS FORECASTS ALMOST NO PRECIP IN OUR AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM OFFERS A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. IT`S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
00Z NAM`S QPF IS ONLY ABOUT HALF OF THE 18Z NAM. THUS...THE NAM IS
TRENDING DRIER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 00Z ECMWF
IS IN BEFORE MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT EVEN THE
WETTEST MODEL SOLUTION BRINGS RAIN NO FARTHER SOUTH THAN SANTA
CRUZ BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ALSO DISAGREE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HOLDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
WEST COAST AND MAINTAINS COOL WEATHER RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. VFR
IS HOLDING SO FAR BUT LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED. VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FORECAST THIS EVENING. IFR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 250422
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
922 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...CONTINUED COOL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
IS INCREASING...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS
BEEN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE MIDWEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN CONTINUED COOLER-THAN-
NORMAL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY INLAND...THROUGH THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A REASONABLY GOOD
CHANCE THAT RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. IN
FACT...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE OCEAN...ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. SKY GRIDS WERE
UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WE MAY SEE SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP ON NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
RANGES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS COASTAL AREAS IN GENERAL. BUT
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SITUATION WITH WIDESPREAD FOG NEAR SEA
LEVEL THAT WOULD OCCUR WITH A MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. AND COOL
ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD MEAN LITTLE CHANCE WE WILL SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE LAYER. EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COOL ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH WITH DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH
SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE SF BAY
AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND THOUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM DOES NOT DIG THE UPPER TROUGH NEARLY AS
FAR TO THE SOUTH...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...AND MOSTLY WASHES OUT
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO IT REACHING OUR CWA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS FORECASTS ALMOST NO PRECIP IN OUR AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM OFFERS A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. IT`S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
00Z NAM`S QPF IS ONLY ABOUT HALF OF THE 18Z NAM. THUS...THE NAM IS
TRENDING DRIER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 00Z ECMWF
IS IN BEFORE MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT EVEN THE
WETTEST MODEL SOLUTION BRINGS RAIN NO FARTHER SOUTH THAN SANTA
CRUZ BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ALSO DISAGREE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HOLDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
WEST COAST AND MAINTAINS COOL WEATHER RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:17 PM PDT FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. VFR
IS FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS
EVENING AT MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY IFR.
VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVE. OTHERWISE VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FORECAST THIS EVENING. IFR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 250119
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
619 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:47 PM PDT FRIDAY...COOL WEATHER AHEAD WITH A
CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND AROUND MONTEREY PENINSULA...BUT
OTHERWISE PRETTY NICE AFTERNOON. 24 HOUR TRENDS ALSO REVEAL THAT
MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PAC NW COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST.
SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER
PERSISTENT WITH BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
TOWARD THE CA COAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP
ON MONDAY...BUT CONSENSUS DEVELOPS RAIN OVER THE N BAY EARLY
MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING RAIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RATHER LIGHT...UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE N BAY AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH A
AN INCH SOUTHWARD. NONE THE LESS...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY WANT TO THINKING ABOUT PACKING RAIN GEAR FOR
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE
UN-SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
AS MUCH AS 10 BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:17 PM PDT FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. VFR
IS FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS
EVENING AT MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY IFR.
VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVE. OTHERWISE VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FORECAST THIS EVENING. IFR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 242151
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
251 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:47 PM PDT FRIDAY...COOL WEATHER AHEAD WITH A
CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND AROUND MONTEREY PENINSULA...BUT
OTHERWISE PRETTY NICE AFTERNOON. 24 HOUR TRENDS ALSO REVEAL THAT
MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PAC NW COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST.
SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER
PERSISTENT WITH BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
TOWARD THE CA COAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP
ON MONDAY...BUT CONSENSUS DEVELOPS RAIN OVER THE N BAY EARLY
MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING RAIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RATHER LIGHT...UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE N BAY AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH A
AN INCH SOUTHWARD. NONE THE LESS...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY WANT TO THINKING ABOUT PACKING RAIN GEAR FOR
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE
UN-SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
AS MUCH AS 10 BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MANY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS AT MANY OF THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO STRATUS WAS ONLY ADDED
TO THE MONTEREY BAY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 30 KT BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 03Z SATURDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO STRATUS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 241735
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:13 AM PDT FRIDAY...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE REVEALS BROKEN STRATUS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AREA. MOST OF THE STRATUS IS CONFINED TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST...MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES
C. WARMER AIRMASS AND WEAKER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES (3-5 DEG) THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE UNOFFICIAL KICK OFF TO SUMMER AND THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE SUMMER. A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE BAY AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...BY
SUNDAY A DECENT MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND THE
STATIONARY LOW AND MOVES TOWARD CA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.
RAIN CHANCES FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE N BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT POINT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING BACK TO OUR AREA. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MANY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS AT MANY OF THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO STRATUS WAS ONLY ADDED
TO THE MONTEREY BAY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 30 KT BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 03Z SATURDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO STRATUS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 241514
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
814 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:13 AM PDT FRIDAY...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE REVEALS BROKEN STRATUS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AREA. MOST OF THE STRATUS IS CONFINED TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST...MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES
C. WARMER AIRMASS AND WEAKER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES (3-5 DEG) THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE UNOFFICIAL KICK OFF TO SUMMER AND THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE SUMMER. A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE BAY AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...BY
SUNDAY A DECENT MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND THE
STATIONARY LOW AND MOVES TOWARD CA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.
RAIN CHANCES FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE N BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT POINT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING BACK TO OUR AREA. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH
STRATUS BANKING AGAINST THE COASTAL HILLS. STRATUS HAS IMPACTED
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY. A TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AT NEARLY ALL OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT KSFO WITH STRATUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KOAK SATURDAY
MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT BY 1900Z AND 23 GUSTING
28KT BY 2100Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS MORNING BURNING OFF BY 1500Z AT KMRY AND 1600Z AT KSNS. WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 1O KT AT KMRY BY 1700Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT KSNS AROUND 2000Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 241118
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
418 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...ANOTHERY FAIRLY CHILLY
MORNING ON TAP FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA WITH A FEW AREAS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. CURRENT CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR A PATCH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SAN MATEO COAST DOWN TO AROUND MONTEREY BAY. CURRENT NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS STILL TWICE THE WESTERLY PIECE, SO ANY CLOUD
FORMATION THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIMITED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO INCREASE 1-3C FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MINOR WARMING AT THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACNW/BC
REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS PIECES OF ENERGY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND THEN
ROTATE AROUND IT. THIS COMBINED WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING.
OVER THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL STAY TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONLY THREAT
FROM THE WEATHER LOOKING LIKE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO WHERE WE END UP TODAY -- GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
ON MONDAY A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO
DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE PACNW/CA COASTAL AREA. EACH MODEL RUN
AS OF LATE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR THE
SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGION WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF AXIS GOES THROUGH ALONG WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PVA. POP VALUES WERE INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (UNDER A
TENTH), HOWEVER THE SYSTEM DOES OF PW AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1.25" SO
LOCALLY HIGHER NUMBERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT POINT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING BACK TO OUR AREA. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH
STRATUS BANKING AGAINST THE COASTAL HILLS. STRATUS HAS IMPACTED
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY. A TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AT NEARLY ALL OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT KSFO WITH STRATUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KOAK SATURDAY
MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT BY 1900Z AND 23 GUSTING
28KT BY 2100Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS MORNING BURNING OFF BY 1500Z AT KMRY AND 1600Z AT KSNS. WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 1O KT AT KMRY BY 1700Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT KSNS AROUND 2000Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 241006
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...ANOTHERY FAIRLY CHILLY
MORNING ON TAP FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA WITH A FEW AREAS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. CURRENT CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR A PATCH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SAN MATEO COAST DOWN TO AROUND MONTEREY BAY. CURRENT NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS STILL TWICE THE WESTERLY PIECE, SO ANY CLOUD
FORMATION THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIMITED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO INCREASE 1-3C FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MINOR WARMING AT THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACNW/BC
REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS PIECES OF ENERGY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND THEN
ROTATE AROUND IT. THIS COMBINED WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING.
OVER THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL STAY TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONLY THREAT
FROM THE WEATHER LOOKING LIKE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO WHERE WE END UP TODAY -- GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
ON MONDAY A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO
DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE PACNW/CA COASTAL AREA. EACH MODEL RUN
AS OF LATE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR THE
SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGION WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF AXIS GOES THROUGH ALONG WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PVA. POP VALUES WERE INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (UNDER A
TENTH), HOWEVER THE SYSTEM DOES OF PW AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1.25" SO
LOCALLY HIGHER NUMBERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT POINT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING BACK TO OUR AREA. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:38 PM PDT THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REFORM BUT REMAIN AT
THE COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 240538
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW WILL START TO
LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY BUT
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY PREVENTING ANY
ADDITIONAL WARMING.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND SENDS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM THE SFO BAY AREA NORTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF
THE SFO BAY AREA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG RANGE GFS HINTS
AT A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP US DRY AFTER
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:38 PM PDT THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REFORM BUT REMAIN AT
THE COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 240335
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW WILL START TO
LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY BUT
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY PREVENTING ANY
ADDITIONAL WARMING.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND SENDS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM THE SFO BAY AREA NORTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF
THE SFO BAY AREA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG RANGE GFS HINTS
AT A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP US DRY AFTER
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REFORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMRY AND KSNS THAT MAY SEE CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE
SEABREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REFORM BUT REMAIN AT THE COAST.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR...MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER KMRY AND KSNS AROUND 09Z
AND 12Z RESPECTIVELY. CLEARING ANTICIPATED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 240047
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:58 PM PDT THURSDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WERE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS TIGHTENED.
TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 60S TO 70 DEGREES INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.
FOR TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 40S.
PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY AND SAN MATEO
COASTLINE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST. THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABUNDANT
STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE MISSED THE MARK BIG TIME RECENTLY WITH
OVER FORECASTING CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FINALLY MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. A STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN ALASKA...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO THE NORTH BAY BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MONTEREY BAY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE
PAST 48 HOURS THAT THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME RAIN WITH
THIS STORM...BUT HAVE VARIED WITH THE TIMING SIGNIFICANTLY. FOR
EXAMPLE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED DURING THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY...THAT THE RAIN WAS GOING TO PRIMARILY FALL IN THE
NORTH BAY ON TUESDAY. NOW...THOSE MODELS SHOW RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IF RAIN DOES IMPACT THE REGION...ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT BOTH TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM. AS MEMORIAL DAY NEARS...CONFIDENCE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
OTHERWISE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REFORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMRY AND KSNS THAT MAY SEE CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE
SEABREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REFORM BUT REMAIN AT THE COAST.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR...MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER KMRY AND KSNS AROUND 09Z
AND 12Z RESPECTIVELY. CLEARING ANTICIPATED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 232058
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
158 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:58 PM PDT THURSDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WERE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS TIGHTENED.
TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 60S TO 70 DEGREES INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.
FOR TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 40S.
PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY AND SAN MATEO
COASTLINE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST. THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABUNDANT
STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE MISSED THE MARK BIG TIME RECENTLY WITH
OVER FORECASTING CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FINALLY MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. A STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN ALASKA...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO THE NORTH BAY BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MONTEREY BAY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE
PAST 48 HOURS THAT THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME RAIN WITH
THIS STORM...BUT HAVE VARIED WITH THE TIMING SIGNIFICANTLY. FOR
EXAMPLE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED DURING THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY...THAT THE RAIN WAS GOING TO PRIMARILY FALL IN THE
NORTH BAY ON TUESDAY. NOW...THOSE MODELS SHOW RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IF RAIN DOES IMPACT THE REGION...ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT BOTH TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM. AS MEMORIAL DAY NEARS...CONFIDENCE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
OTHERWISE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SATELLITE
IMAGE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE COAST AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS
INLAND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT STILL TWICE THE WESTERLY VALUES SO
WOULD EXPECT DISSIPATION TO CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ALL SPOTS. STILL BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FOR TONIGHT THE
BIG QUESTION IS WILL CLOUDS ROLL IN AND DROP MOST PLACES DOWN TO
MVFR LEVELS. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE RETURN TO CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE FLOW FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...WILL HEDGE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND BRING IN CIGS TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. 50-50 CHANCE OF CLOUDS RETURNING
TONIGHT BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEARBY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 30 KT WILL SUBSIDE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR...SIMILAR TO KSFO BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDS VERY SLOW TO BURN BUT SHOULD
GO VFR FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 231813
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1113 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WERE PRESENT THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WERE PRESENT OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH COMMON.
OTHERWISE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S...AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ACTUALLY COOLED TO NEAR FREEZING...WITH
FORT HUNTER LIGGET IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY DIPPING TO 33
DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE MAIN FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN FOR
THE AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT THURSDAY...AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPARENT ON
THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE ENTERING THE BERING SEA.
BOTH THE 0000Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE
FEATURES PUSHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW NORTHEAST INTO CANADA
SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A COOL TROUGHY PATTERN
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS THEN
INTRODUCE A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST MONDAY BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE TO THE NORTH BAY AREA LATE MONDAY
MORNING SPREADING SOUTH TO SAN FRANCISCO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
MONTEREY BY EARLY EVENING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS FORECAST IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN MAY CHANGE BY
MONDAY. BY MID WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DIRTY
RIDGE SCENARIO WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SATELLITE
IMAGE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE COAST AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS
INLAND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT STILL TWICE THE WESTERLY VALUES SO
WOULD EXPECT DISSIPATION TO CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ALL SPOTS. STILL BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. FOR TONIGHT THE
BIG QUESTION IS WILL CLOUDS ROLL IN AND DROP MOST PLACES DOWN TO
MVFR LEVELS. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE RETURN TO CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE FLOW FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...WILL HEDGE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND BRING IN CIGS TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. 50-50 CHANCE OF CLOUDS RETURNING
TONIGHT BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEARBY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 30 KT WILL SUBSIDE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR...SIMILAR TO KSFO BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDS VERY SLOW TO BURN BUT SHOULD
GO VFR FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY/LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 231623
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
923 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WERE PRESENT THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WERE PRESENT OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH COMMON.
OTHERWISE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S...AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ACTUALLY COOLED TO NEAR FREEZING...WITH
FORT HUNTER LIGGET IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY DIPPING TO 33
DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE MAIN FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN FOR
THE AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT THURSDAY...AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPARENT ON
THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE ENTERING THE BERING SEA.
BOTH THE 0000Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE
FEATURES PUSHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW NORTHEAST INTO CANADA
SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A COOL TROUGHY PATTERN
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS THEN
INTRODUCE A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST MONDAY BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE TO THE NORTH BAY AREA LATE MONDAY
MORNING SPREADING SOUTH TO SAN FRANCISCO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
MONTEREY BY EARLY EVENING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS FORECAST IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN MAY CHANGE BY
MONDAY. BY MID WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DIRTY
RIDGE SCENARIO WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:44 AM PDT THURSDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST TERMINALS AGAIN TODAY BUT OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING MONTEREY BAY REGION
AND THE SAN MATEO COAST AS WELL AS THE EAST BAY/SANTA CLARA VALLEY
HILLS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PILING UP ALONG THE HILLS IN BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW. GOOD NEWS IS THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED INVERSION LAYER AND
NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO IMPACT BAY AREA TERMINALS WITH ANY CIGS
BANKED UP AGAINST THE HILLS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS OVER KMRY AND KSNS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MIX
OUT BY 16Z.
VICINITY OF KSFO...FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEARBY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 30 KT WILL SUBSIDE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR...A FEW CLOUDS MAY PASS OVER THE
APPROACH BUT NO CIGS EXPECTED. SIMILAR TO KSFO BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SCT-BKN CIGS AT 1500-2000 FT
THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY...THEN CLEARING. GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY/LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 231144
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
444 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT THURSDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ADVECTING COOL
MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE ENTERING
THE BERING SEA. BOTH THE 0000Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL
WITH THESE FEATURES PUSHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A COOL TROUGHY
PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS
THEN INTRODUCE A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST MONDAY BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE TO THE NORTH BAY AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING SOUTH TO SAN FRANCISCO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONTEREY BY
EARLY EVENING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS FORECAST IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT AND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN MAY CHANGE BY MONDAY. BY MID
WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR
TWO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:44 AM PDT THURSDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST TERMINALS AGAIN TODAY BUT OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING MONTEREY BAY REGION
AND THE SAN MATEO COAST AS WELL AS THE EAST BAY/SANTA CLARA VALLEY
HILLS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PILING UP ALONG THE HILLS IN BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW. GOOD NEWS IS THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED INVERSION LAYER AND
NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO IMPACT BAY AREA TERMINALS WITH ANY CIGS
BANKED UP AGAINST THE HILLS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS OVER KMRY AND KSNS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MIX
OUT BY 16Z.
VICINITY OF KSFO...FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEARBY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 30 KT WILL SUBSIDE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR...A FEW CLOUDS MAY PASS OVER THE
APPROACH BUT NO CIGS EXPECTED. SIMILAR TO KSFO BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SCT-BKN CIGS AT 1500-2000 FT
THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY...THEN CLEARING. GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 230938
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT THURSDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ADVECTING COOL
MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE ENTERING
THE BERING SEA. BOTH THE 0000Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL
WITH THESE FEATURES PUSHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A COOL TROUGHY
PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS
THEN INTRODUCE A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST MONDAY BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE TO THE NORTH BAY AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING SOUTH TO SAN FRANCISCO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONTEREY BY
EARLY EVENING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS FORECAST IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT AND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN MAY CHANGE BY MONDAY. BY MID
WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR
TWO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. SOME
CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST NEAR KHAF AND
AROUND MONTEREY BAY UNDER STIFF ONSHORE WINDS. CIG HEIGHTS ALONG
THE COAST ARE AROUND 1500-2000 FEET. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY
EASE OVERNIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING CIGS INSIDE THE BAY BUT SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS POSSIBLE BUMPING UP ON THE EAST BAY HILLS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR SKIES. GUSTY WEST WINDS EASING OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. SIMILAR TO KSFO BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SCT-BKN CIGS AT 1500-2000 FT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY...THEN CLEARING. GUSTY WEST WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 230610
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1110 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BROUGHT COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
DISTRICT TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WONT BE AS COOL AS
THE CURRENT SYSTEM SO IT WONT BE AS COOL BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL.
THE WHOLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
AND WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE WARMING. LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN REACHING THE
NORTH BAY AND COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. SOME
CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST NEAR KHAF AND
AROUND MONTEREY BAY UNDER STIFF ONSHORE WINDS. CIG HEIGHTS ALONG
THE COAST ARE AROUND 1500-2000 FEET. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY
EASE OVERNIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING CIGS INSIDE THE BAY BUT SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS POSSIBLE BUMPING UP ON THE EAST BAY HILLS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR SKIES. GUSTY WEST WINDS EASING OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. SIMILAR TO KSFO BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SCT-BKN CIGS AT 1500-2000 FT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY...THEN CLEARING. GUSTY WEST WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 230359
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
859 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BROUGHT COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
DISTRICT TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WONT BE AS COOL AS
THE CURRENT SYSTEM SO IT WONT BE AS COOL BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL.
THE WHOLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
AND WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE WARMING. LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN REACHING THE
NORTH BAY AND COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. COOL UPPER
TROUGH AND STRONG GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES VFR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...STRONGEST THIS EVENING BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS 24 HOURS AND WITH LESS IMPACT ON LOCAL OPERATIONS.
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS REMAINS VALID THRU
04Z AT KSFO.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR SKIES. GUSTY WEST WINDS SUSTAINED 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT...EASING AFTER 04Z. LIGHTER WEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LIGHTER THAN TODAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. SIMILAR TO KSFO BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR SKIES. GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH
04Z THEN GRADUALLY EASING OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED BREEZY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT LIGHTER THAN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 222355
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED COOLER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO BLANKET ALL OF THE CWA AT
THIS HOUR WITH A FEW SPOTS RUNNING 4 TO 7 DEGREES UNDER THE VALUES
FROM TUESDAY. THANKS TO A FAVORABLE GRADIENT AND A LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED MARINE LAYER, ALL LOCATIONS WERE ABLE TO ENJOY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ONE MINOR SURPRISE IS THE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN
GUSTING AS MUCH AS FORECAST. EVEN WINDY SPOTS SUCH AS SFO HAVE
JUST DISPLAYED THEIR TYPICAL SEABREEZE VALUES. SHOULD BE ANOTHER
CLEAR NIGHT FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS ALTHOUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKING LIKELY FOR SOME OF THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PACNW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIKE AROUND THAT AREA WITH PIECES
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP US IN A COOL
AND DRY FLOW INTO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AT THE
COAST WITH 70S INLAND.
ON TUESDAY, A LONGWAVE TROF WILL GO ACROSS OUR AREA AND KEEP THE
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD DOWN THE COAST AND BE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE LAST STORM, CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY FAVORS THE CWA STAYING DRY,
ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAINFALL THIS TIME OF YEAR IS CERTAINLY NOT THAT
RARE OF AN EVENT. VARIOUS GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON
RAIN, ALTHOUGH WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROF, FEEL THAT KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL A GOOD CALL. DID MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NORTH BAY, BUT EVEN THERE ODDS FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME. ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH.
BEHIND THE TROF, A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP. HIGHS WILL REMAIN A BIT
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. COOL UPPER
TROUGH AND STRONG GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES VFR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...STRONGEST THIS EVENING BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS 24 HOURS AND WITH LESS IMPACT ON LOCAL OPERATIONS.
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS REMAINS VALID THRU
04Z AT KSFO.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR SKIES. GUSTY WEST WINDS SUSTAINED 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT...EASING AFTER 04Z. LIGHTER WEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LIGHTER THAN TODAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. SIMILAR TO KSFO BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR SKIES. GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH
04Z THEN GRADUALLY EASING OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED BREEZY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT LIGHTER THAN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 222203
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
303 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED COOLER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO BLANKET ALL OF THE CWA AT
THIS HOUR WITH A FEW SPOTS RUNNING 4 TO 7 DEGREES UNDER THE VALUES
FROM TUESDAY. THANKS TO A FAVORABLE GRADIENT AND A LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED MARINE LAYER, ALL LOCATIONS WERE ABLE TO ENJOY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ONE MINOR SURPRISE IS THE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN
GUSTING AS MUCH AS FORECAST. EVEN WINDY SPOTS SUCH AS SFO HAVE
JUST DISPLAYED THEIR TYPICAL SEABREEZE VALUES. SHOULD BE ANOTHER
CLEAR NIGHT FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS ALTHOUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKING LIKELY FOR SOME OF THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PACNW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIKE AROUND THAT AREA WITH PIECES
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP US IN A COOL
AND DRY FLOW INTO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AT THE
COAST WITH 70S INLAND.
ON TUESDAY, A LONGWAVE TROF WILL GO ACROSS OUR AREA AND KEEP THE
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD DOWN THE COAST AND BE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE LAST STORM, CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY FAVORS THE CWA STAYING DRY,
ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAINFALL THIS TIME OF YEAR IS CERTAINLY NOT THAT
RARE OF AN EVENT. VARIOUS GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON
RAIN, ALTHOUGH WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROF, FEEL THAT KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL A GOOD CALL. DID MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NORTH BAY, BUT EVEN THERE ODDS FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME. ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH.
BEHIND THE TROF, A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP. HIGHS WILL REMAIN A BIT
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXIST NOW...BUT WINDS
SHOULD RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT AFTER
20Z. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20Z
(1 PM PDT) THIS AFTERNOON TO 04Z (9 PM PDT) THIS EVENING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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