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000
FXUS66 KMTR 042156
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
156 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
THEN BRING A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:52 PM PST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM 24 HOURS
AGO AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO NEAR 80
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO AID IN
THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BRING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO
THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MID/LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...THEY
GENERALLY AGREE IN SOME TYPE OF PATTERN CHANGE THAT WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION FOR DAY 7 AND 8 OF THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING
DAYS AND SEE IF THEY BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A MORE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION. UNTIL THEN...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:05 AM PST WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSTS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH GUSTY SEA BREEZE POSS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:08 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MIXED SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 042156
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
156 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
THEN BRING A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:52 PM PST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM 24 HOURS
AGO AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO NEAR 80
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO AID IN
THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BRING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO
THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MID/LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...THEY
GENERALLY AGREE IN SOME TYPE OF PATTERN CHANGE THAT WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION FOR DAY 7 AND 8 OF THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING
DAYS AND SEE IF THEY BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A MORE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION. UNTIL THEN...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:05 AM PST WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSTS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH GUSTY SEA BREEZE POSS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:08 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MIXED SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041711
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:08 AM PST WEDNESDAY...DESPITE A FEW LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY THIS MORNING...CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL REGION-WIDE. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO THOSE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN
PLACE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM
SPOT AT THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING
WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS
EXPECTED. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN
MONTEREY COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:05 AM PST WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSTS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH GUSTY SEA BREEZE POSS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:08 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MIXED SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 041711
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:08 AM PST WEDNESDAY...DESPITE A FEW LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY THIS MORNING...CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL REGION-WIDE. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO THOSE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN
PLACE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM
SPOT AT THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING
WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS
EXPECTED. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN
MONTEREY COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:05 AM PST WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSTS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH GUSTY SEA BREEZE POSS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:08 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MIXED SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 041711
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:08 AM PST WEDNESDAY...DESPITE A FEW LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY THIS MORNING...CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL REGION-WIDE. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO THOSE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN
PLACE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM
SPOT AT THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING
WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS
EXPECTED. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN
MONTEREY COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:05 AM PST WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSTS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH GUSTY SEA BREEZE POSS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:08 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MIXED SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 041705
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:05 AM PST WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSTS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH GUSTY SEA BREEZE POSS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:03 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MIXED SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 041705
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:05 AM PST WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSTS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH GUSTY SEA BREEZE POSS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:03 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MIXED SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 041144
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
344 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE OVER
YESTERDAY MORNING...ALBEIT THIS MORNING IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SKC AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY. W-NW WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 7-14KT AT SF/MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS AOA 22ZWED
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 04ZTHU. FOR TMRW NITE... LIGHTER WINDS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW PTS MAY ENCOURAGE FG/BR IN NORTH BAY INTERIOR
VLYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:28 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM PT
REYES AND NORTH TODAY AND LIGHTER NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MIXED SWELL BEGINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 041144
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
344 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE OVER
YESTERDAY MORNING...ALBEIT THIS MORNING IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SKC AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY. W-NW WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 7-14KT AT SF/MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS AOA 22ZWED
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 04ZTHU. FOR TMRW NITE... LIGHTER WINDS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW PTS MAY ENCOURAGE FG/BR IN NORTH BAY INTERIOR
VLYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:28 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM PT
REYES AND NORTH TODAY AND LIGHTER NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MIXED SWELL BEGINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 041144
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
344 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE OVER
YESTERDAY MORNING...ALBEIT THIS MORNING IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SKC AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY. W-NW WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 7-14KT AT SF/MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS AOA 22ZWED
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 04ZTHU. FOR TMRW NITE... LIGHTER WINDS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW PTS MAY ENCOURAGE FG/BR IN NORTH BAY INTERIOR
VLYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:28 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM PT
REYES AND NORTH TODAY AND LIGHTER NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MIXED SWELL BEGINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 041144
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
344 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE OVER
YESTERDAY MORNING...ALBEIT THIS MORNING IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SKC AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY. W-NW WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 7-14KT AT SF/MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS AOA 22ZWED
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 04ZTHU. FOR TMRW NITE... LIGHTER WINDS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW PTS MAY ENCOURAGE FG/BR IN NORTH BAY INTERIOR
VLYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:28 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM PT
REYES AND NORTH TODAY AND LIGHTER NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MIXED SWELL BEGINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 041057
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CA COASTAL
TROUGH MIGRATES TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT
IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS.

LOW CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUD COVER IS THE BEST
GUESS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE SUPPORTED BY NON-EVIDENCE OF A
CAPPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. IFR NOT IN THE 06Z KMRY AND KSNS TAFS
BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF WINDOW 1-2 HOURS IFR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM EITHER THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX A BIT ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORECASTED EDDY CIRCULATION OVER THE MONTEREY BAY PER THE WRF MODEL
OR AT THE START OF THE DAILY VERTICAL MIXING PRIOR TO CLEARING.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK OFFSHORE
WIND DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...24 HOUR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT GAINED MUCH
TRACTION THIS EVENING BUT NW WIND FLOW OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND
NIGHT-TIME COOLING STILL COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. THE DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EDDY
CIRCULATION PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY BY THE WRF MODEL.
GOOD MIXING PROCESSES WEDNESDAY RAISES CHANCES FOR VFR TO RETURN DURING
THE DAY BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM PT REYES
AND NORTH TODAY AND LIGHTER NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
MIXED SWELL BEGINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 041057
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CA COASTAL
TROUGH MIGRATES TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT
IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS.

LOW CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUD COVER IS THE BEST
GUESS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE SUPPORTED BY NON-EVIDENCE OF A
CAPPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. IFR NOT IN THE 06Z KMRY AND KSNS TAFS
BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF WINDOW 1-2 HOURS IFR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM EITHER THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX A BIT ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORECASTED EDDY CIRCULATION OVER THE MONTEREY BAY PER THE WRF MODEL
OR AT THE START OF THE DAILY VERTICAL MIXING PRIOR TO CLEARING.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK OFFSHORE
WIND DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...24 HOUR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT GAINED MUCH
TRACTION THIS EVENING BUT NW WIND FLOW OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND
NIGHT-TIME COOLING STILL COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. THE DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EDDY
CIRCULATION PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY BY THE WRF MODEL.
GOOD MIXING PROCESSES WEDNESDAY RAISES CHANCES FOR VFR TO RETURN DURING
THE DAY BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM PT REYES
AND NORTH TODAY AND LIGHTER NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
MIXED SWELL BEGINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 041057
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CA COASTAL
TROUGH MIGRATES TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT
IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS.

LOW CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUD COVER IS THE BEST
GUESS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE SUPPORTED BY NON-EVIDENCE OF A
CAPPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. IFR NOT IN THE 06Z KMRY AND KSNS TAFS
BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF WINDOW 1-2 HOURS IFR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM EITHER THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX A BIT ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORECASTED EDDY CIRCULATION OVER THE MONTEREY BAY PER THE WRF MODEL
OR AT THE START OF THE DAILY VERTICAL MIXING PRIOR TO CLEARING.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK OFFSHORE
WIND DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...24 HOUR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT GAINED MUCH
TRACTION THIS EVENING BUT NW WIND FLOW OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND
NIGHT-TIME COOLING STILL COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. THE DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EDDY
CIRCULATION PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY BY THE WRF MODEL.
GOOD MIXING PROCESSES WEDNESDAY RAISES CHANCES FOR VFR TO RETURN DURING
THE DAY BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM PT REYES
AND NORTH TODAY AND LIGHTER NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
MIXED SWELL BEGINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 041057
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SO FAR THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME -- UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SAN FRANCISCO IS THE WARM SPOT AT
THIS HOUR WITH 50 DEGREES.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST WHILE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. 850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 13-14C RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH ANOTHER 5
DEGREES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. THOSE WARM READINGS WILL CARRY
THROUGH TO AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW THE WARMING WILL MAKE
IT DOWN TO LOCAL BEACHES WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN OCCUR IN MONTEREY
COUNTY.

THE RIDGE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GEM HAS
THE PATH RIGHT TO THE OREGON COAST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDING
FROM OUR CWA UP TO THE BC COASTLINE. GFS (BOTH OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE LOW GREATLY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. RAINFALL OFF THE GFS
SOLUTIONS IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

DUE TO SOME LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER FROM
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE DAY 7 TO 10 TIME FRAME...BEST
COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS. WILL FEEL
BETTER ONCE IT GETS WITHIN 5 DAYS. UPSHOT IS ALL MODELS DO BRING
RAIN TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CA COASTAL
TROUGH MIGRATES TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT
IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS.

LOW CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUD COVER IS THE BEST
GUESS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE SUPPORTED BY NON-EVIDENCE OF A
CAPPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. IFR NOT IN THE 06Z KMRY AND KSNS TAFS
BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF WINDOW 1-2 HOURS IFR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM EITHER THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX A BIT ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORECASTED EDDY CIRCULATION OVER THE MONTEREY BAY PER THE WRF MODEL
OR AT THE START OF THE DAILY VERTICAL MIXING PRIOR TO CLEARING.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK OFFSHORE
WIND DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...24 HOUR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT GAINED MUCH
TRACTION THIS EVENING BUT NW WIND FLOW OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND
NIGHT-TIME COOLING STILL COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. THE DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EDDY
CIRCULATION PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY BY THE WRF MODEL.
GOOD MIXING PROCESSES WEDNESDAY RAISES CHANCES FOR VFR TO RETURN DURING
THE DAY BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM PT REYES
AND NORTH TODAY AND LIGHTER NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
MIXED SWELL BEGINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 040549
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:51 PM PST TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING.

THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS STATEMENT WILL BE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE OCEAN`S INFLUENCE ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SO EXPECT CLEAR CHILLY NIGHTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO
WELL. THEREFORE...NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CA COASTAL
TROUGH MIGRATES TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT
IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS.

LOW CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUD COVER IS THE BEST
GUESS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE SUPPORTED BY NON-EVIDENCE OF A
CAPPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. IFR NOT IN THE 06Z KMRY AND KSNS TAFS
BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF WINDOW 1-2 HOURS IFR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM EITHER THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX A BIT ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORECASTED EDDY CIRCULATION OVER THE MONTEREY BAY PER THE WRF MODEL
OR AT THE START OF THE DAILY VERTICAL MIXING PRIOR TO CLEARING.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK OFFSHORE
WIND DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...24 HOUR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT GAINED MUCH
TRACTION THIS EVENING BUT NW WIND FLOW OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND
NIGHT-TIME COOLING STILL COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. THE DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EDDY
CIRCULATION PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY BY THE WRF MODEL.
GOOD MIXING PROCESSES WEDNESDAY RAISES CHANCES FOR VFR TO RETURN DURING
THE DAY BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:10 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 040549
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:51 PM PST TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING.

THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS STATEMENT WILL BE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE OCEAN`S INFLUENCE ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SO EXPECT CLEAR CHILLY NIGHTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO
WELL. THEREFORE...NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CA COASTAL
TROUGH MIGRATES TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT
IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS.

LOW CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUD COVER IS THE BEST
GUESS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE SUPPORTED BY NON-EVIDENCE OF A
CAPPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. IFR NOT IN THE 06Z KMRY AND KSNS TAFS
BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF WINDOW 1-2 HOURS IFR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM EITHER THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX A BIT ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORECASTED EDDY CIRCULATION OVER THE MONTEREY BAY PER THE WRF MODEL
OR AT THE START OF THE DAILY VERTICAL MIXING PRIOR TO CLEARING.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK OFFSHORE
WIND DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...24 HOUR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT GAINED MUCH
TRACTION THIS EVENING BUT NW WIND FLOW OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND
NIGHT-TIME COOLING STILL COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. THE DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EDDY
CIRCULATION PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY BY THE WRF MODEL.
GOOD MIXING PROCESSES WEDNESDAY RAISES CHANCES FOR VFR TO RETURN DURING
THE DAY BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:10 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 040549
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:51 PM PST TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING.

THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS STATEMENT WILL BE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE OCEAN`S INFLUENCE ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SO EXPECT CLEAR CHILLY NIGHTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO
WELL. THEREFORE...NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CA COASTAL
TROUGH MIGRATES TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT
IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS.

LOW CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUD COVER IS THE BEST
GUESS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE SUPPORTED BY NON-EVIDENCE OF A
CAPPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. IFR NOT IN THE 06Z KMRY AND KSNS TAFS
BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF WINDOW 1-2 HOURS IFR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM EITHER THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX A BIT ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORECASTED EDDY CIRCULATION OVER THE MONTEREY BAY PER THE WRF MODEL
OR AT THE START OF THE DAILY VERTICAL MIXING PRIOR TO CLEARING.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK OFFSHORE
WIND DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...24 HOUR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT GAINED MUCH
TRACTION THIS EVENING BUT NW WIND FLOW OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND
NIGHT-TIME COOLING STILL COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. THE DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EDDY
CIRCULATION PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY BY THE WRF MODEL.
GOOD MIXING PROCESSES WEDNESDAY RAISES CHANCES FOR VFR TO RETURN DURING
THE DAY BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:10 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 040451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:51 PM PST TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING.

THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS STATEMENT WILL BE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE OCEAN`S INFLUENCE ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SO EXPECT CLEAR CHILLY NIGHTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO
WELL. THEREFORE...NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:20 PM PST TUESDAY...THE CA COASTAL TROUGH WILL
VERY LIKELY SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL
ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVE WILL TREND TO NEUTRAL OR BRIEFLY WEAK
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME. THE LARGER SCALE WMC-SFO GRADIENT
INCREASES MODESTLY TO APPROX 8 MB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER TODAY`S
AND LAST EVENING`S NAM MODEL RUNS. THIS FAVORS VFR FOR THE BAY
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD.

AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
FOR TONIGHT AS PARTIAL LOW CLOUD COVER IS CONVERGING ON THIS AREA
AS OF THIS WRITING. THE WRF MODEL RUN SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARD SE
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SE WIND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MOVE OUT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO A SE WIND
FLOW IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE USUALLY SEE IN OFFSHORE PATTERNS
EVEN IF THEY ARE ONLY BRIEF...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF BRIEF OFFSHORE WIND DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON A SIDE NOTE: COASTAL BUOY WATER TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE
MORE IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS PRESENTLY RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S NORTH TO SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER. WE MAY
BE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE WEATHER RELATED IMPLICATIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS
DUE TO THIS COOLING AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
TRENDS TOWARD LIGHT NE WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN
BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAY NEED TO AMEND THE 00Z KMRY AND
KSNS TAFS TO INCLUDE MORE LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERALL ESPECIALLY WITH CLEARING TIMES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CLEARING WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON STRENGTH OF THE EDDY CIRCULATION IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. MUCH IMPROVED CHANCES FOR VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS
TIME TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
       AVIATION: CANEPA
         MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 040451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:51 PM PST TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING.

THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS STATEMENT WILL BE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE OCEAN`S INFLUENCE ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SO EXPECT CLEAR CHILLY NIGHTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO
WELL. THEREFORE...NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:20 PM PST TUESDAY...THE CA COASTAL TROUGH WILL
VERY LIKELY SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL
ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVE WILL TREND TO NEUTRAL OR BRIEFLY WEAK
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME. THE LARGER SCALE WMC-SFO GRADIENT
INCREASES MODESTLY TO APPROX 8 MB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER TODAY`S
AND LAST EVENING`S NAM MODEL RUNS. THIS FAVORS VFR FOR THE BAY
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD.

AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
FOR TONIGHT AS PARTIAL LOW CLOUD COVER IS CONVERGING ON THIS AREA
AS OF THIS WRITING. THE WRF MODEL RUN SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARD SE
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SE WIND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MOVE OUT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO A SE WIND
FLOW IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE USUALLY SEE IN OFFSHORE PATTERNS
EVEN IF THEY ARE ONLY BRIEF...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF BRIEF OFFSHORE WIND DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON A SIDE NOTE: COASTAL BUOY WATER TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE
MORE IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS PRESENTLY RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S NORTH TO SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER. WE MAY
BE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE WEATHER RELATED IMPLICATIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS
DUE TO THIS COOLING AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
TRENDS TOWARD LIGHT NE WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN
BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAY NEED TO AMEND THE 00Z KMRY AND
KSNS TAFS TO INCLUDE MORE LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERALL ESPECIALLY WITH CLEARING TIMES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CLEARING WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON STRENGTH OF THE EDDY CIRCULATION IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. MUCH IMPROVED CHANCES FOR VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS
TIME TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
       AVIATION: CANEPA
         MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 040451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:51 PM PST TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING.

THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS STATEMENT WILL BE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE OCEAN`S INFLUENCE ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SO EXPECT CLEAR CHILLY NIGHTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO
WELL. THEREFORE...NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:20 PM PST TUESDAY...THE CA COASTAL TROUGH WILL
VERY LIKELY SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL
ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVE WILL TREND TO NEUTRAL OR BRIEFLY WEAK
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME. THE LARGER SCALE WMC-SFO GRADIENT
INCREASES MODESTLY TO APPROX 8 MB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER TODAY`S
AND LAST EVENING`S NAM MODEL RUNS. THIS FAVORS VFR FOR THE BAY
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD.

AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
FOR TONIGHT AS PARTIAL LOW CLOUD COVER IS CONVERGING ON THIS AREA
AS OF THIS WRITING. THE WRF MODEL RUN SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARD SE
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SE WIND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MOVE OUT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO A SE WIND
FLOW IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE USUALLY SEE IN OFFSHORE PATTERNS
EVEN IF THEY ARE ONLY BRIEF...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF BRIEF OFFSHORE WIND DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON A SIDE NOTE: COASTAL BUOY WATER TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE
MORE IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS PRESENTLY RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S NORTH TO SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER. WE MAY
BE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE WEATHER RELATED IMPLICATIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS
DUE TO THIS COOLING AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
TRENDS TOWARD LIGHT NE WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN
BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAY NEED TO AMEND THE 00Z KMRY AND
KSNS TAFS TO INCLUDE MORE LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERALL ESPECIALLY WITH CLEARING TIMES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CLEARING WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON STRENGTH OF THE EDDY CIRCULATION IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. MUCH IMPROVED CHANCES FOR VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS
TIME TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
       AVIATION: CANEPA
         MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 040451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:51 PM PST TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING.

THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS STATEMENT WILL BE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE OCEAN`S INFLUENCE ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SO EXPECT CLEAR CHILLY NIGHTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO
WELL. THEREFORE...NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:20 PM PST TUESDAY...THE CA COASTAL TROUGH WILL
VERY LIKELY SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL
ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVE WILL TREND TO NEUTRAL OR BRIEFLY WEAK
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME. THE LARGER SCALE WMC-SFO GRADIENT
INCREASES MODESTLY TO APPROX 8 MB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER TODAY`S
AND LAST EVENING`S NAM MODEL RUNS. THIS FAVORS VFR FOR THE BAY
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD.

AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
FOR TONIGHT AS PARTIAL LOW CLOUD COVER IS CONVERGING ON THIS AREA
AS OF THIS WRITING. THE WRF MODEL RUN SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARD SE
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SE WIND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MOVE OUT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO A SE WIND
FLOW IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE USUALLY SEE IN OFFSHORE PATTERNS
EVEN IF THEY ARE ONLY BRIEF...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF BRIEF OFFSHORE WIND DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON A SIDE NOTE: COASTAL BUOY WATER TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE
MORE IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS PRESENTLY RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S NORTH TO SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER. WE MAY
BE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE WEATHER RELATED IMPLICATIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS
DUE TO THIS COOLING AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
TRENDS TOWARD LIGHT NE WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN
BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAY NEED TO AMEND THE 00Z KMRY AND
KSNS TAFS TO INCLUDE MORE LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERALL ESPECIALLY WITH CLEARING TIMES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CLEARING WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON STRENGTH OF THE EDDY CIRCULATION IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. MUCH IMPROVED CHANCES FOR VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS
TIME TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
       AVIATION: CANEPA
         MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 040236
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
636 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:20 PM PST TUESDAY...THE CA COASTAL TROUGH WILL
VERY LIKELY SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL
ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVE WILL TREND TO NEUTRAL OR BRIEFLY WEAK
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME. THE LARGER SCALE WMC-SFO GRADIENT
INCREASES MODESTLY TO APPROX 8 MB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER TODAY`S
AND LAST EVENING`S NAM MODEL RUNS. THIS FAVORS VFR FOR THE BAY
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD.

AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
FOR TONIGHT AS PARTIAL LOW CLOUD COVER IS CONVERGING ON THIS AREA
AS OF THIS WRITING. THE WRF MODEL RUN SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARD SE
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SE WIND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MOVE OUT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO A SE WIND
FLOW IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE USUALLY SEE IN OFFSHORE PATTERNS
EVEN IF THEY ARE ONLY BRIEF...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF BRIEF OFFSHORE WIND DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON A SIDE NOTE: COASTAL BUOY WATER TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE
MORE IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS PRESENTLY RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S NORTH TO SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER. WE MAY
BE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE WEATHER RELATED IMPLICATIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS
DUE TO THIS COOLING AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
TRENDS TOWARD LIGHT NE WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN
BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAY NEED TO AMEND THE 00Z KMRY AND
KSNS TAFS TO INCLUDE MORE LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERALL ESPECIALLY WITH CLEARING TIMES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CLEARING WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON STRENGTH OF THE EDDY CIRCULATION IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. MUCH IMPROVED CHANCES FOR VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS
TIME TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 040236
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
636 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:20 PM PST TUESDAY...THE CA COASTAL TROUGH WILL
VERY LIKELY SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL
ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVE WILL TREND TO NEUTRAL OR BRIEFLY WEAK
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME. THE LARGER SCALE WMC-SFO GRADIENT
INCREASES MODESTLY TO APPROX 8 MB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER TODAY`S
AND LAST EVENING`S NAM MODEL RUNS. THIS FAVORS VFR FOR THE BAY
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD.

AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
FOR TONIGHT AS PARTIAL LOW CLOUD COVER IS CONVERGING ON THIS AREA
AS OF THIS WRITING. THE WRF MODEL RUN SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY WATERS BY MIDNIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARD SE
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SE WIND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MOVE OUT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO A SE WIND
FLOW IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE USUALLY SEE IN OFFSHORE PATTERNS
EVEN IF THEY ARE ONLY BRIEF...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.

WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WE
COULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF BRIEF OFFSHORE WIND DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON A SIDE NOTE: COASTAL BUOY WATER TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE
MORE IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 WEEKS PRESENTLY RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S NORTH TO SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER. WE MAY
BE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE WEATHER RELATED IMPLICATIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS
DUE TO THIS COOLING AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
TRENDS TOWARD LIGHT NE WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS RETURN
BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAY NEED TO AMEND THE 00Z KMRY AND
KSNS TAFS TO INCLUDE MORE LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERALL ESPECIALLY WITH CLEARING TIMES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CLEARING WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON STRENGTH OF THE EDDY CIRCULATION IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. MUCH IMPROVED CHANCES FOR VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS
TIME TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 032226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
226 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS ALWAYS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG AT KSTS...BUT
CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 032226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
226 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS ALWAYS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG AT KSTS...BUT
CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 032226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
226 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS ALWAYS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG AT KSTS...BUT
CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 032226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
226 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INLAND
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 10 DEGREES C AND BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND...A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH OR
EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS ALWAYS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG AT KSTS...BUT
CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:24 PM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 031726
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR A COOL START TO THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO
40S NEAR THE COAST/BAY AREAS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE
COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS ALWAYS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG AT KSTS...BUT
CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:23 AM PST TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 031726
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR A COOL START TO THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO
40S NEAR THE COAST/BAY AREAS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE
COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS ALWAYS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG AT KSTS...BUT
CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:23 AM PST TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 031726
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR A COOL START TO THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO
40S NEAR THE COAST/BAY AREAS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE
COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS ALWAYS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG AT KSTS...BUT
CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:23 AM PST TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 031726
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR A COOL START TO THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO
40S NEAR THE COAST/BAY AREAS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE
COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS ALWAYS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG AT KSTS...BUT
CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:23 AM PST TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 031657
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR A COOL START TO THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO
40S NEAR THE COAST/BAY AREAS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE
COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDING AWAY FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SAT IMG DOES SHOW SMALL POCKETS OF FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA AS OF 4AM BUT DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES... LIGHT MIXING WINDS AOA
2-5KT AND LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THIS MORNING VFR
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WEST WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 15KT AT BAY
AREA TERMINALS BTWN 22ZTUE-04ZWED. A LINE OF STRATUS IS FORMING
SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE OF BIG SUR COASTLINE THIS MORN BUT NOT
EXPECTING IMPACT TO OPERATIONS AT KMRY/KSNS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 031657
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR A COOL START TO THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO
40S NEAR THE COAST/BAY AREAS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE
COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDING AWAY FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SAT IMG DOES SHOW SMALL POCKETS OF FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA AS OF 4AM BUT DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES... LIGHT MIXING WINDS AOA
2-5KT AND LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THIS MORNING VFR
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WEST WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 15KT AT BAY
AREA TERMINALS BTWN 22ZTUE-04ZWED. A LINE OF STRATUS IS FORMING
SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE OF BIG SUR COASTLINE THIS MORN BUT NOT
EXPECTING IMPACT TO OPERATIONS AT KMRY/KSNS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 031657
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR A COOL START TO THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO
40S NEAR THE COAST/BAY AREAS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE
COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDING AWAY FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SAT IMG DOES SHOW SMALL POCKETS OF FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA AS OF 4AM BUT DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES... LIGHT MIXING WINDS AOA
2-5KT AND LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THIS MORNING VFR
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WEST WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 15KT AT BAY
AREA TERMINALS BTWN 22ZTUE-04ZWED. A LINE OF STRATUS IS FORMING
SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE OF BIG SUR COASTLINE THIS MORN BUT NOT
EXPECTING IMPACT TO OPERATIONS AT KMRY/KSNS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 031157
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
357 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDING AWAY FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATIMG DOES SHOW SMALL POCKETS OF FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA AS OF 4AM BUT DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES... LIGHT MIXING WINDS AOA
2-5KT AND LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THIS MORNING VFR
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WEST WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 15KT AT BAY
AREA TERMINALS BTWN 22ZTUE-04ZWED. A LINE OF STRATUS IS FORMING
SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE OF BIG SUR COASTLINE THIS MORN BUT NOT
EXPECTING IMPACT TO OPERATIONS AT KMRY/KSNS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:46 AM PST TUESDAY...BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THEN DIMINISH BY
MIDWEEK. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 031157
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
357 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDING AWAY FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATIMG DOES SHOW SMALL POCKETS OF FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA AS OF 4AM BUT DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES... LIGHT MIXING WINDS AOA
2-5KT AND LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THIS MORNING VFR
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WEST WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 15KT AT BAY
AREA TERMINALS BTWN 22ZTUE-04ZWED. A LINE OF STRATUS IS FORMING
SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE OF BIG SUR COASTLINE THIS MORN BUT NOT
EXPECTING IMPACT TO OPERATIONS AT KMRY/KSNS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:46 AM PST TUESDAY...BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THEN DIMINISH BY
MIDWEEK. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 031053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING PER AREA METAR OBS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT NOCTURNAL COOLING...INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOW COOLING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
BUT WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
FORECASTING FOG FOR KSTS TONIGHT FOR INSTANCE. OTHERWISE IT`S A LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WMC-SFO PRESS GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO
PEAK NEAR 8 MB.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THEN DIMINISH BY
MIDWEEK. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 031053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING PER AREA METAR OBS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT NOCTURNAL COOLING...INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOW COOLING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
BUT WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
FORECASTING FOG FOR KSTS TONIGHT FOR INSTANCE. OTHERWISE IT`S A LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WMC-SFO PRESS GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO
PEAK NEAR 8 MB.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THEN DIMINISH BY
MIDWEEK. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 031053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING PER AREA METAR OBS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT NOCTURNAL COOLING...INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOW COOLING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
BUT WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
FORECASTING FOG FOR KSTS TONIGHT FOR INSTANCE. OTHERWISE IT`S A LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WMC-SFO PRESS GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO
PEAK NEAR 8 MB.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THEN DIMINISH BY
MIDWEEK. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 031053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING PER AREA METAR OBS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT NOCTURNAL COOLING...INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOW COOLING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
BUT WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
FORECASTING FOG FOR KSTS TONIGHT FOR INSTANCE. OTHERWISE IT`S A LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WMC-SFO PRESS GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO
PEAK NEAR 8 MB.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THEN DIMINISH BY
MIDWEEK. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 030659
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PST MONDAY...LATEST KMUX RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS THE FINAL FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS...IN
THE VICINITY OF FAR NORTHWESTERN SAN BENITO COUNTY...HAVE JUST
DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN
THE DAY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PT CONCEPTION. HAVE THEREFORE JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE
FORECASTS TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. ALSO...AS A COOL AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS BEEN LEFT OVER US IN ITS WAKE...HAVE
ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. AND GIVEN THE SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY GENERALLY PREVAILING...COULD POTENTIALLY FORM ELSEWHERE
AS WELL...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE.

OTHERWISE PRESENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED PORTION OF DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM
MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING PER AREA METAR OBS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT NOCTURNAL COOLING...INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOW COOLING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
BUT WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
FORECASTING FOG FOR KSTS TONIGHT FOR INSTANCE. OTHERWISE IT`S A LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WMC-SFO PRESS GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO
PEAK NEAR 8 MB.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:43 PM PST MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A MIXED
SWELL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS ARE FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 030659
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PST MONDAY...LATEST KMUX RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS THE FINAL FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS...IN
THE VICINITY OF FAR NORTHWESTERN SAN BENITO COUNTY...HAVE JUST
DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN
THE DAY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PT CONCEPTION. HAVE THEREFORE JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE
FORECASTS TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. ALSO...AS A COOL AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS BEEN LEFT OVER US IN ITS WAKE...HAVE
ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. AND GIVEN THE SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY GENERALLY PREVAILING...COULD POTENTIALLY FORM ELSEWHERE
AS WELL...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE.

OTHERWISE PRESENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED PORTION OF DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM
MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING PER AREA METAR OBS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT NOCTURNAL COOLING...INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOW COOLING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
BUT WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
FORECASTING FOG FOR KSTS TONIGHT FOR INSTANCE. OTHERWISE IT`S A LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WMC-SFO PRESS GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO
PEAK NEAR 8 MB.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:43 PM PST MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A MIXED
SWELL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS ARE FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 030659
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PST MONDAY...LATEST KMUX RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS THE FINAL FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS...IN
THE VICINITY OF FAR NORTHWESTERN SAN BENITO COUNTY...HAVE JUST
DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN
THE DAY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PT CONCEPTION. HAVE THEREFORE JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE
FORECASTS TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. ALSO...AS A COOL AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS BEEN LEFT OVER US IN ITS WAKE...HAVE
ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. AND GIVEN THE SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY GENERALLY PREVAILING...COULD POTENTIALLY FORM ELSEWHERE
AS WELL...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE.

OTHERWISE PRESENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED PORTION OF DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM
MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING PER AREA METAR OBS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT NOCTURNAL COOLING...INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOW COOLING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
BUT WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
FORECASTING FOG FOR KSTS TONIGHT FOR INSTANCE. OTHERWISE IT`S A LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WMC-SFO PRESS GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO
PEAK NEAR 8 MB.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:43 PM PST MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A MIXED
SWELL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS ARE FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 030659
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PST MONDAY...LATEST KMUX RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS THE FINAL FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS...IN
THE VICINITY OF FAR NORTHWESTERN SAN BENITO COUNTY...HAVE JUST
DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN
THE DAY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PT CONCEPTION. HAVE THEREFORE JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE
FORECASTS TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. ALSO...AS A COOL AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS BEEN LEFT OVER US IN ITS WAKE...HAVE
ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. AND GIVEN THE SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY GENERALLY PREVAILING...COULD POTENTIALLY FORM ELSEWHERE
AS WELL...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE.

OTHERWISE PRESENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED PORTION OF DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM
MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING PER AREA METAR OBS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT NOCTURNAL COOLING...INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOW COOLING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
BUT WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
FORECASTING FOG FOR KSTS TONIGHT FOR INSTANCE. OTHERWISE IT`S A LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WMC-SFO PRESS GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO
PEAK NEAR 8 MB.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:43 PM PST MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A MIXED
SWELL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS ARE FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 030526
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PST MONDAY...LATEST KMUX RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS THE FINAL FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS...IN
THE VICINITY OF FAR NORTHWESTERN SAN BENITO COUNTY...HAVE JUST
DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN
THE DAY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PT CONCEPTION. HAVE THEREFORE JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE
FORECASTS TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. ALSO...AS A COOL AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS BEEN LEFT OVER US IN ITS WAKE...HAVE
ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. AND GIVEN THE SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY GENERALLY PREVAILING...COULD POTENTIALLY FORM ELSEWHERE
AS WELL...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE.

OTHERWISE PRESENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED PORTION OF DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM
MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST MONDAY...THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL
LOW IS PRESENTLY ADJACENT TO THE BAY AREA COASTLINE AND CONTINUES
TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER
NORTHERNMOST CA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING YET MARGINAL DAYTIME HEATING...
WEAK-MODERATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPORARY VERTICAL MOTION
SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE BAY AREA PRIOR TO JET STREAM SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE VICINITY T-STORM IN
ANY OF THE 00Z TAFS BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE CLEARING VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
SUPPORTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECASTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF KSFO.
OTHERWISE VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/JOHNSON
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 030526
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PST MONDAY...LATEST KMUX RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS THE FINAL FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS...IN
THE VICINITY OF FAR NORTHWESTERN SAN BENITO COUNTY...HAVE JUST
DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN
THE DAY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PT CONCEPTION. HAVE THEREFORE JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE
FORECASTS TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. ALSO...AS A COOL AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS BEEN LEFT OVER US IN ITS WAKE...HAVE
ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. AND GIVEN THE SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY GENERALLY PREVAILING...COULD POTENTIALLY FORM ELSEWHERE
AS WELL...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE.

OTHERWISE PRESENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED PORTION OF DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM
MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST MONDAY...THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL
LOW IS PRESENTLY ADJACENT TO THE BAY AREA COASTLINE AND CONTINUES
TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER
NORTHERNMOST CA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING YET MARGINAL DAYTIME HEATING...
WEAK-MODERATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPORARY VERTICAL MOTION
SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE BAY AREA PRIOR TO JET STREAM SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE VICINITY T-STORM IN
ANY OF THE 00Z TAFS BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE CLEARING VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
SUPPORTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECASTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF KSFO.
OTHERWISE VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/JOHNSON
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 030526
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR DISTRICT HAS NOW ENDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG...AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PST MONDAY...LATEST KMUX RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS THE FINAL FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS...IN
THE VICINITY OF FAR NORTHWESTERN SAN BENITO COUNTY...HAVE JUST
DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN
THE DAY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PT CONCEPTION. HAVE THEREFORE JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONE
FORECASTS TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. ALSO...AS A COOL AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS BEEN LEFT OVER US IN ITS WAKE...HAVE
ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. AND GIVEN THE SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY GENERALLY PREVAILING...COULD POTENTIALLY FORM ELSEWHERE
AS WELL...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE.

OTHERWISE PRESENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED PORTION OF DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM
MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST MONDAY...THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL
LOW IS PRESENTLY ADJACENT TO THE BAY AREA COASTLINE AND CONTINUES
TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER
NORTHERNMOST CA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING YET MARGINAL DAYTIME HEATING...
WEAK-MODERATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPORARY VERTICAL MOTION
SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE BAY AREA PRIOR TO JET STREAM SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE VICINITY T-STORM IN
ANY OF THE 00Z TAFS BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE CLEARING VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
SUPPORTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECASTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF KSFO.
OTHERWISE VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/JOHNSON
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 030005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WINDING DOWN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE SF BAY AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:06 PM PST MONDAY... LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CENTER OF OUR WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO SAN FRANCISCO. THIS IS GENERALLY IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED IT SHOULD BE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
UNDER PERFORMED EXPECTATIONS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HOLDING READINGS DOWN. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT DOWN THE COAST AND BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUN TO THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
60S. THIS DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS
TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST MONDAY...THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL
LOW IS PRESENTLY ADJACENT TO THE BAY AREA COASTLINE AND CONTINUES
TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER
NORTHERNMOST CA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING YET MARGINAL DAYTIME HEATING...
WEAK-MODERATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPORARY VERTICAL MOTION
SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE BAY AREA PRIOR TO JET STREAM SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE VICINITY T-STORM IN
ANY OF THE 00Z TAFS BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE CLEARING VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
SUPPORTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECASTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF KSFO.
OTHERWISE VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 030005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WINDING DOWN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE SF BAY AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:06 PM PST MONDAY... LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CENTER OF OUR WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO SAN FRANCISCO. THIS IS GENERALLY IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED IT SHOULD BE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
UNDER PERFORMED EXPECTATIONS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HOLDING READINGS DOWN. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT DOWN THE COAST AND BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUN TO THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
60S. THIS DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS
TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST MONDAY...THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL
LOW IS PRESENTLY ADJACENT TO THE BAY AREA COASTLINE AND CONTINUES
TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER
NORTHERNMOST CA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING YET MARGINAL DAYTIME HEATING...
WEAK-MODERATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPORARY VERTICAL MOTION
SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE BAY AREA PRIOR TO JET STREAM SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE VICINITY T-STORM IN
ANY OF THE 00Z TAFS BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE CLEARING VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
SUPPORTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECASTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF KSFO.
OTHERWISE VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 030005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WINDING DOWN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE SF BAY AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:06 PM PST MONDAY... LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CENTER OF OUR WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO SAN FRANCISCO. THIS IS GENERALLY IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED IT SHOULD BE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
UNDER PERFORMED EXPECTATIONS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HOLDING READINGS DOWN. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT DOWN THE COAST AND BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUN TO THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
60S. THIS DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS
TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST MONDAY...THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL
LOW IS PRESENTLY ADJACENT TO THE BAY AREA COASTLINE AND CONTINUES
TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER
NORTHERNMOST CA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING YET MARGINAL DAYTIME HEATING...
WEAK-MODERATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPORARY VERTICAL MOTION
SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE BAY AREA PRIOR TO JET STREAM SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE VICINITY T-STORM IN
ANY OF THE 00Z TAFS BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE CLEARING VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
SUPPORTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECASTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF KSFO.
OTHERWISE VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 030005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WINDING DOWN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE SF BAY AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:06 PM PST MONDAY... LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CENTER OF OUR WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO SAN FRANCISCO. THIS IS GENERALLY IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED IT SHOULD BE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
UNDER PERFORMED EXPECTATIONS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HOLDING READINGS DOWN. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT DOWN THE COAST AND BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUN TO THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
60S. THIS DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS
TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST MONDAY...THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL
LOW IS PRESENTLY ADJACENT TO THE BAY AREA COASTLINE AND CONTINUES
TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER
NORTHERNMOST CA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING YET MARGINAL DAYTIME HEATING...
WEAK-MODERATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPORARY VERTICAL MOTION
SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE BAY AREA PRIOR TO JET STREAM SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE VICINITY T-STORM IN
ANY OF THE 00Z TAFS BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE CLEARING VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
SUPPORTS PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECASTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF KSFO.
OTHERWISE VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 022208
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
208 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WINDING DOWN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE SF BAY AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:06 PM PST MONDAY... LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CENTER OF OUR WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO SAN FRANCISCO. THIS IS GENERALLY IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED IT SHOULD BE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
UNDER PERFORMED EXPECTATIONS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HOLDING READINGS DOWN. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT DOWN THE COAST AND BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUN TO THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
60S. THIS DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS
TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST MONDAY...LATEST OBS/TRENDS INDICATE
POPCORN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM INTENSE...AND SCATTERED BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE
COAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. FORECASTING MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY CIGS AROUND SFO...BUT CONF IS GROWING
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2K FT. WILL KEEP SOME CIGS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH 20-21Z THEN LIFTING. OAK WILL REMAIN
TRICKY WITH THE WINDS. WILL HOLD ONTO SE TO S WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SW IN THE 19-20Z TIME PERIOD. CIGS WILL LINGER LONGER AT OAK
THIS AM AS WELL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONT TO IMPACT
MRY AND SNS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 022208
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
208 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WINDING DOWN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE SF BAY AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:06 PM PST MONDAY... LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CENTER OF OUR WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO SAN FRANCISCO. THIS IS GENERALLY IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHERE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED IT SHOULD BE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
UNDER PERFORMED EXPECTATIONS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HOLDING READINGS DOWN. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT DOWN THE COAST AND BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUN TO THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
60S. THIS DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND SO LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. THIS
TOO WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT READINGS OVERNIGHT WILL WARM MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW/MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST MONDAY...LATEST OBS/TRENDS INDICATE
POPCORN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM INTENSE...AND SCATTERED BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE
COAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. FORECASTING MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY CIGS AROUND SFO...BUT CONF IS GROWING
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2K FT. WILL KEEP SOME CIGS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH 20-21Z THEN LIFTING. OAK WILL REMAIN
TRICKY WITH THE WINDS. WILL HOLD ONTO SE TO S WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SW IN THE 19-20Z TIME PERIOD. CIGS WILL LINGER LONGER AT OAK
THIS AM AS WELL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONT TO IMPACT
MRY AND SNS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 021744
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST MONDAY...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SATELLITE SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SETTLED
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY SCOOTING DOWN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY AND PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT MUCH
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING
FROM OAKLAND SHOWS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PRONOUNCED WARM AND
DRY LAYER AROUND 925 MB. THERE IS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IF THE AIR
TEMPERATURE COULD REACH THE MID 60S BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS THAT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SO WILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO HERE AND THERE BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPE VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST MONDAY...LATEST OBS/TRENDS INDICATE
POPCORN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM INTENSE...AND SCATTERED BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE
COAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. FORECASTING MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY CIGS AROUND SFO...BUT CONF IS GROWING
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2K FT. WILL KEEP SOME CIGS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH 20-21Z THEN LIFTING. OAK WILL REMAIN
TRICKY WITH THE WINDS. WILL HOLD ONTO SE TO S WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SW IN THE 19-20Z TIME PERIOD. CIGS WILL LINGER LONGER AT OAK
THIS AM AS WELL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONT TO IMPACT
MRY AND SNS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:36 AM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 021744
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST MONDAY...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SATELLITE SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SETTLED
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY SCOOTING DOWN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY AND PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT MUCH
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING
FROM OAKLAND SHOWS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PRONOUNCED WARM AND
DRY LAYER AROUND 925 MB. THERE IS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IF THE AIR
TEMPERATURE COULD REACH THE MID 60S BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS THAT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SO WILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO HERE AND THERE BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPE VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST MONDAY...LATEST OBS/TRENDS INDICATE
POPCORN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM INTENSE...AND SCATTERED BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE
COAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. FORECASTING MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY CIGS AROUND SFO...BUT CONF IS GROWING
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2K FT. WILL KEEP SOME CIGS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH 20-21Z THEN LIFTING. OAK WILL REMAIN
TRICKY WITH THE WINDS. WILL HOLD ONTO SE TO S WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SW IN THE 19-20Z TIME PERIOD. CIGS WILL LINGER LONGER AT OAK
THIS AM AS WELL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONT TO IMPACT
MRY AND SNS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:36 AM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 021744
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST MONDAY...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SATELLITE SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SETTLED
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY SCOOTING DOWN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY AND PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT MUCH
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING
FROM OAKLAND SHOWS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PRONOUNCED WARM AND
DRY LAYER AROUND 925 MB. THERE IS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IF THE AIR
TEMPERATURE COULD REACH THE MID 60S BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS THAT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SO WILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO HERE AND THERE BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPE VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST MONDAY...LATEST OBS/TRENDS INDICATE
POPCORN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM INTENSE...AND SCATTERED BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE
COAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. FORECASTING MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY CIGS AROUND SFO...BUT CONF IS GROWING
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2K FT. WILL KEEP SOME CIGS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH 20-21Z THEN LIFTING. OAK WILL REMAIN
TRICKY WITH THE WINDS. WILL HOLD ONTO SE TO S WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SW IN THE 19-20Z TIME PERIOD. CIGS WILL LINGER LONGER AT OAK
THIS AM AS WELL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONT TO IMPACT
MRY AND SNS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:36 AM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 021744
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST MONDAY...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SATELLITE SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SETTLED
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY SCOOTING DOWN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY AND PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT MUCH
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING
FROM OAKLAND SHOWS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PRONOUNCED WARM AND
DRY LAYER AROUND 925 MB. THERE IS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IF THE AIR
TEMPERATURE COULD REACH THE MID 60S BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS THAT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SO WILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO HERE AND THERE BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPE VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST MONDAY...LATEST OBS/TRENDS INDICATE
POPCORN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM INTENSE...AND SCATTERED BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE
COAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. FORECASTING MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY CIGS AROUND SFO...BUT CONF IS GROWING
THAT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2K FT. WILL KEEP SOME CIGS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH 20-21Z THEN LIFTING. OAK WILL REMAIN
TRICKY WITH THE WINDS. WILL HOLD ONTO SE TO S WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SW IN THE 19-20Z TIME PERIOD. CIGS WILL LINGER LONGER AT OAK
THIS AM AS WELL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONT TO IMPACT
MRY AND SNS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:36 AM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 021735
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
935 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST MONDAY...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SATELLITE SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SETTLED
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY SCOOTING DOWN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY AND PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT MUCH
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING
FROM OAKLAND SHOWS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PRONOUNCED WARM AND
DRY LAYER AROUND 925 MB. THERE IS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IF THE AIR
TEMPERATURE COULD REACH THE MID 60S BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS THAT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SO WILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO HERE AND THERE BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPE VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:47 AM PST MONDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. QUICK MOVING
BOUNDARY RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION. SOME LOW CIGS SO FAR AT
KSTS AND KWVI BUT IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS. -SHRA
EXPECTED OVER THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TERMINALS SO HAVE USED VCSH IN TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...JUST EXPECTING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY
WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 19Z TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME LOW CIGS NEAR KWVI AND KHAF
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT KMRY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL THOUGH JUST EXPECTING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT -SHRA OVER THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
PUT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR KMRY AND KSNS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:12 AM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 021735
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
935 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST MONDAY...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY GOING ON ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SATELLITE SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SETTLED
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY SCOOTING DOWN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY AND PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT MUCH
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING
FROM OAKLAND SHOWS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PRONOUNCED WARM AND
DRY LAYER AROUND 925 MB. THERE IS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IF THE AIR
TEMPERATURE COULD REACH THE MID 60S BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS THAT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SO WILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO HERE AND THERE BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPE VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:47 AM PST MONDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. QUICK MOVING
BOUNDARY RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION. SOME LOW CIGS SO FAR AT
KSTS AND KWVI BUT IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS. -SHRA
EXPECTED OVER THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TERMINALS SO HAVE USED VCSH IN TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...JUST EXPECTING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY
WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 19Z TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME LOW CIGS NEAR KWVI AND KHAF
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT KMRY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL THOUGH JUST EXPECTING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT -SHRA OVER THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
PUT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR KMRY AND KSNS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:12 AM PST MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY RATHER QUICKLY. THE PASSING STORM
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 021147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
347 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPE VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:47 AM PST MONDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. QUICK MOVING
BOUNDARY RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION. SOME LOW CIGS SO FAR AT
KSTS AND KWVI BUT IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS. -SHRA
EXPECTED OVER THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TERMINALS SO HAVE USED VCSH IN TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...JUST EXPECTING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY
WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 19Z TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME LOW CIGS NEAR KWVI AND KHAF
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT KMRY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL THOUGH JUST EXPECTING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT -SHRA OVER THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
PUT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR KMRY AND KSNS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:47 AM PST MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME GUSTY NW
WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 021147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
347 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPE VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:47 AM PST MONDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. QUICK MOVING
BOUNDARY RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION. SOME LOW CIGS SO FAR AT
KSTS AND KWVI BUT IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS. -SHRA
EXPECTED OVER THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TERMINALS SO HAVE USED VCSH IN TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...JUST EXPECTING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY
WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 19Z TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME LOW CIGS NEAR KWVI AND KHAF
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT KMRY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL THOUGH JUST EXPECTING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT -SHRA OVER THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
PUT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR KMRY AND KSNS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:47 AM PST MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME GUSTY NW
WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 021100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICKLY MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPES VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND BE OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF SJC. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS 12
TO 18 KT 19Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY. CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000
FEET. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
POTENTIAL ISSUE POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. A MIXED SWELL WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 021100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICKLY MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY...WV AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A SYSTEM RAPIDLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IN SOME SPOTS WINDS ARE
STARTING TO ALSO INCREASE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL FORM
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE
LIFTED AND CAPES VALUES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY IN PARTICULAR SANTA
CRUZ...MONTEREY...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING UP AROUND SAN JOSE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LOOKING AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AROUND MONTEREY COUNTY LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AT
AROUND 4000 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND BE OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH VANCOUVER ISLAND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS VERY
NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF SJC. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS 12
TO 18 KT 19Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY. CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000
FEET. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
POTENTIAL ISSUE POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. A MIXED SWELL WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 020640
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BE TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
A WEAK AND QUICKLY MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
REGION MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST SUNDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT THAT BROUGHT A ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION SATURDAY DID A SIMILAR PERFORMANCE
TODAY BUT THE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS MUCH SMALLER AND CONCENTRATED
OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...ONE INITIATED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEARBY PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK THEN ADVANCED WESTWARD OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF IT
AND REACHED THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST/BIG SUR COASTLINE
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ONE LAST ISOLATED T-STORM REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY NEAR GONZALES JUST AFTER SUNSET AND BECAME ILLUMINATED
BY THE EVENING TWILIGHT AND A SERIES OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS PRODUCED MAINLY SMALL HAIL...LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

TODAY`S DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE PRODUCED A BEAUTIFUL ARRAY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE LANDSCAPE AGAINST A BACKDROP OF NEARLY CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BROUGHT IN RELATIVELY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FROM INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. MANY TIMES THE IMMEDIATE COAST`S SKY IS
A BIT WHITENED OUT BY SLIGHTLY HAZY CONDITIONS NORMAL TO A MARINE
BASED CLIMATE...BUT TODAY WAS JUST THE EXACT OPPOSITE...IT WAS A
NICE PLATFORM FOR CLOUD VIEWING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
MERGING WITH A VERY FAST MOVING TROUGH SLIDING DOWN THE FORWARD SIDE
OF A SHARP EPAC/GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE. THE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY OVER
THE PAC NW AND IS WASTING NO TIME AT ALL SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND
IT`LL REMAIN NEARLY ADJACENT TO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND BRING WITH
IT ANOTHER POOL OF COLD AIR...STEEPENING TEMP LAPSE RATES...AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. IN MY YEARS OF FORECASTING EXPERIENCE THESE
FAST MOVING GREATLY CONCENTRATED DYNAMIC SYSTEMS CAN CATCH AN AREA
OFF-GUARD AND MUST BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS IT`S INHERENTLY DIFFICULT
FOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO CAPTURE THEM WELL ENOUGH MOST
TIMES. THE CAVEAT CONCERNING THIS TROUGH IS THE PROXIMITY TO OUR
COASTLINE WITH WHICH IT WILL BE...THE CONTINUED STEEPENED TEMP
LAPSE RATES...THE OVER WATER TRAJECTORY...ITS ARRIVAL DURING TOMORROW`S
DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE...AND LASTLY BUT JUST AS IMPORTANT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR PARTICULARLY
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES S-SE WINDS AT
KSNS BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR INSTANCE. THE SHAPE
AND ORIENTATION OF THE SALINAS VALLEY IS QUITE FAVORABLE ALONE FOR
S-SE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. IT`S DIFFICULT TO FIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS PARTICULAR LOW EVEN WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP AND SURFACE WIND FIELDS...BUT THE 18Z
GFS RUN SEEMED TO SHOW A HINT OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE
ADVERTISES THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET-UP BY THE DAY SHIFT. THE MAIN FOCUS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE TO FOCUS MORE CLOSELY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND FOCUS LESS ON THE MODEL FORECASTS.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FALLS IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME-FRAME MONDAY.

BEGINNING TUESDAY THE EPAC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES A RETURN VISIT
TO CA AND COULD BE STAYING HERE FOR A WHILE...I.E. INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL IN
RECENT DAYS WHILE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVER THE
EPAC. THE 00Z AS WELL AS THE 12Z ECMWF WANT TO CLOSE OFF A MID
LEVEL LOW OVER 34N/150W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHOW SOME EASTWARD
MOVEMENT IN THE OVERALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE POLAR JET AND
SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAMS MERGE. IMPLICATIONS HERE INCLUDE THE CHANCE
FOR LOWER LATITUDE FLOW EVENTUALLY BRINGING RAINY WEATHER TO CA
SOMETIME BEYOND THE 10 DAY RANGE...BUT AM HAVING SOME DOUBT ABOUT
THE JET STREAM MERGING SCENARIO. IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE
NEWER 00Z ECMWF AND IF IT`S STILL ON BOARD WITH THIS OUTLINED
SCENARIO. ONLY RECENTLY IS IT THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN U.S. HAS BROADENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THESE
RECENT COLD POOLS OF AIR TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGHER
LATITUDES. RECENT NWS CPC 6-10 DAY/8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVE SHOWN 4
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LONGWAVE TROUGHS. IF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
CAN FLATTEN THEN PERHAPS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC LONGWAVE
TROUGH COULD BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN BUT THIS MIGHT TAKE AT LEAST
TIL MID MARCH TO FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF SJC. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS 12
TO 18 KT 19Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY. CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000
FEET. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
POTENTIAL ISSUE POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. A MIXED SWELL WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 020640
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BE TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
A WEAK AND QUICKLY MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
REGION MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST SUNDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT THAT BROUGHT A ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION SATURDAY DID A SIMILAR PERFORMANCE
TODAY BUT THE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS MUCH SMALLER AND CONCENTRATED
OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...ONE INITIATED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEARBY PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK THEN ADVANCED WESTWARD OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF IT
AND REACHED THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST/BIG SUR COASTLINE
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ONE LAST ISOLATED T-STORM REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY NEAR GONZALES JUST AFTER SUNSET AND BECAME ILLUMINATED
BY THE EVENING TWILIGHT AND A SERIES OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS PRODUCED MAINLY SMALL HAIL...LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

TODAY`S DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE PRODUCED A BEAUTIFUL ARRAY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE LANDSCAPE AGAINST A BACKDROP OF NEARLY CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BROUGHT IN RELATIVELY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FROM INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. MANY TIMES THE IMMEDIATE COAST`S SKY IS
A BIT WHITENED OUT BY SLIGHTLY HAZY CONDITIONS NORMAL TO A MARINE
BASED CLIMATE...BUT TODAY WAS JUST THE EXACT OPPOSITE...IT WAS A
NICE PLATFORM FOR CLOUD VIEWING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
MERGING WITH A VERY FAST MOVING TROUGH SLIDING DOWN THE FORWARD SIDE
OF A SHARP EPAC/GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE. THE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY OVER
THE PAC NW AND IS WASTING NO TIME AT ALL SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND
IT`LL REMAIN NEARLY ADJACENT TO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND BRING WITH
IT ANOTHER POOL OF COLD AIR...STEEPENING TEMP LAPSE RATES...AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. IN MY YEARS OF FORECASTING EXPERIENCE THESE
FAST MOVING GREATLY CONCENTRATED DYNAMIC SYSTEMS CAN CATCH AN AREA
OFF-GUARD AND MUST BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS IT`S INHERENTLY DIFFICULT
FOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO CAPTURE THEM WELL ENOUGH MOST
TIMES. THE CAVEAT CONCERNING THIS TROUGH IS THE PROXIMITY TO OUR
COASTLINE WITH WHICH IT WILL BE...THE CONTINUED STEEPENED TEMP
LAPSE RATES...THE OVER WATER TRAJECTORY...ITS ARRIVAL DURING TOMORROW`S
DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE...AND LASTLY BUT JUST AS IMPORTANT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR PARTICULARLY
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES S-SE WINDS AT
KSNS BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR INSTANCE. THE SHAPE
AND ORIENTATION OF THE SALINAS VALLEY IS QUITE FAVORABLE ALONE FOR
S-SE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. IT`S DIFFICULT TO FIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS PARTICULAR LOW EVEN WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP AND SURFACE WIND FIELDS...BUT THE 18Z
GFS RUN SEEMED TO SHOW A HINT OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE
ADVERTISES THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET-UP BY THE DAY SHIFT. THE MAIN FOCUS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE TO FOCUS MORE CLOSELY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND FOCUS LESS ON THE MODEL FORECASTS.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FALLS IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME-FRAME MONDAY.

BEGINNING TUESDAY THE EPAC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES A RETURN VISIT
TO CA AND COULD BE STAYING HERE FOR A WHILE...I.E. INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL IN
RECENT DAYS WHILE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVER THE
EPAC. THE 00Z AS WELL AS THE 12Z ECMWF WANT TO CLOSE OFF A MID
LEVEL LOW OVER 34N/150W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHOW SOME EASTWARD
MOVEMENT IN THE OVERALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE POLAR JET AND
SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAMS MERGE. IMPLICATIONS HERE INCLUDE THE CHANCE
FOR LOWER LATITUDE FLOW EVENTUALLY BRINGING RAINY WEATHER TO CA
SOMETIME BEYOND THE 10 DAY RANGE...BUT AM HAVING SOME DOUBT ABOUT
THE JET STREAM MERGING SCENARIO. IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE
NEWER 00Z ECMWF AND IF IT`S STILL ON BOARD WITH THIS OUTLINED
SCENARIO. ONLY RECENTLY IS IT THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN U.S. HAS BROADENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THESE
RECENT COLD POOLS OF AIR TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGHER
LATITUDES. RECENT NWS CPC 6-10 DAY/8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVE SHOWN 4
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LONGWAVE TROUGHS. IF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
CAN FLATTEN THEN PERHAPS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC LONGWAVE
TROUGH COULD BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN BUT THIS MIGHT TAKE AT LEAST
TIL MID MARCH TO FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF SJC. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS 12
TO 18 KT 19Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY. CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000
FEET. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
POTENTIAL ISSUE POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. A MIXED SWELL WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 020640
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BE TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
A WEAK AND QUICKLY MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
REGION MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST SUNDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT THAT BROUGHT A ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION SATURDAY DID A SIMILAR PERFORMANCE
TODAY BUT THE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS MUCH SMALLER AND CONCENTRATED
OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...ONE INITIATED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEARBY PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK THEN ADVANCED WESTWARD OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF IT
AND REACHED THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST/BIG SUR COASTLINE
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ONE LAST ISOLATED T-STORM REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY NEAR GONZALES JUST AFTER SUNSET AND BECAME ILLUMINATED
BY THE EVENING TWILIGHT AND A SERIES OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS PRODUCED MAINLY SMALL HAIL...LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

TODAY`S DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE PRODUCED A BEAUTIFUL ARRAY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE LANDSCAPE AGAINST A BACKDROP OF NEARLY CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BROUGHT IN RELATIVELY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FROM INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. MANY TIMES THE IMMEDIATE COAST`S SKY IS
A BIT WHITENED OUT BY SLIGHTLY HAZY CONDITIONS NORMAL TO A MARINE
BASED CLIMATE...BUT TODAY WAS JUST THE EXACT OPPOSITE...IT WAS A
NICE PLATFORM FOR CLOUD VIEWING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
MERGING WITH A VERY FAST MOVING TROUGH SLIDING DOWN THE FORWARD SIDE
OF A SHARP EPAC/GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE. THE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY OVER
THE PAC NW AND IS WASTING NO TIME AT ALL SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND
IT`LL REMAIN NEARLY ADJACENT TO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND BRING WITH
IT ANOTHER POOL OF COLD AIR...STEEPENING TEMP LAPSE RATES...AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. IN MY YEARS OF FORECASTING EXPERIENCE THESE
FAST MOVING GREATLY CONCENTRATED DYNAMIC SYSTEMS CAN CATCH AN AREA
OFF-GUARD AND MUST BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS IT`S INHERENTLY DIFFICULT
FOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO CAPTURE THEM WELL ENOUGH MOST
TIMES. THE CAVEAT CONCERNING THIS TROUGH IS THE PROXIMITY TO OUR
COASTLINE WITH WHICH IT WILL BE...THE CONTINUED STEEPENED TEMP
LAPSE RATES...THE OVER WATER TRAJECTORY...ITS ARRIVAL DURING TOMORROW`S
DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE...AND LASTLY BUT JUST AS IMPORTANT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR PARTICULARLY
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES S-SE WINDS AT
KSNS BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR INSTANCE. THE SHAPE
AND ORIENTATION OF THE SALINAS VALLEY IS QUITE FAVORABLE ALONE FOR
S-SE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. IT`S DIFFICULT TO FIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS PARTICULAR LOW EVEN WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP AND SURFACE WIND FIELDS...BUT THE 18Z
GFS RUN SEEMED TO SHOW A HINT OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE
ADVERTISES THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET-UP BY THE DAY SHIFT. THE MAIN FOCUS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE TO FOCUS MORE CLOSELY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND FOCUS LESS ON THE MODEL FORECASTS.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FALLS IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME-FRAME MONDAY.

BEGINNING TUESDAY THE EPAC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES A RETURN VISIT
TO CA AND COULD BE STAYING HERE FOR A WHILE...I.E. INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL IN
RECENT DAYS WHILE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVER THE
EPAC. THE 00Z AS WELL AS THE 12Z ECMWF WANT TO CLOSE OFF A MID
LEVEL LOW OVER 34N/150W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHOW SOME EASTWARD
MOVEMENT IN THE OVERALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE POLAR JET AND
SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAMS MERGE. IMPLICATIONS HERE INCLUDE THE CHANCE
FOR LOWER LATITUDE FLOW EVENTUALLY BRINGING RAINY WEATHER TO CA
SOMETIME BEYOND THE 10 DAY RANGE...BUT AM HAVING SOME DOUBT ABOUT
THE JET STREAM MERGING SCENARIO. IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE
NEWER 00Z ECMWF AND IF IT`S STILL ON BOARD WITH THIS OUTLINED
SCENARIO. ONLY RECENTLY IS IT THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN U.S. HAS BROADENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THESE
RECENT COLD POOLS OF AIR TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGHER
LATITUDES. RECENT NWS CPC 6-10 DAY/8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVE SHOWN 4
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LONGWAVE TROUGHS. IF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
CAN FLATTEN THEN PERHAPS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC LONGWAVE
TROUGH COULD BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN BUT THIS MIGHT TAKE AT LEAST
TIL MID MARCH TO FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF SJC. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS 12
TO 18 KT 19Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY. CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000
FEET. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
POTENTIAL ISSUE POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PST SUNDAY... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. A MIXED SWELL WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 020552
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
952 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BE TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
A WEAK AND QUICKLY MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
REGION MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST SUNDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT THAT BROUGHT A ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION SATURDAY DID A SIMILAR PERFORMANCE
TODAY BUT THE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS MUCH SMALLER AND CONCENTRATED
OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...ONE INITIATED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEARBY PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK THEN ADVANCED WESTWARD OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF IT
AND REACHED THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST/BIG SUR COASTLINE
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ONE LAST ISOLATED T-STORM REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY NEAR GONZALES JUST AFTER SUNSET AND BECAME ILLUMINATED
BY THE EVENING TWILIGHT AND A SERIES OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS PRODUCED MAINLY SMALL HAIL...LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

TODAY`S DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE PRODUCED A BEAUTIFUL ARRAY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE LANDSCAPE AGAINST A BACKDROP OF NEARLY CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BROUGHT IN RELATIVELY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FROM INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. MANY TIMES THE IMMEDIATE COAST`S SKY IS
A BIT WHITENED OUT BY SLIGHTLY HAZY CONDITIONS NORMAL TO A MARINE
BASED CLIMATE...BUT TODAY WAS JUST THE EXACT OPPOSITE...IT WAS A
NICE PLATFORM FOR CLOUD VIEWING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
MERGING WITH A VERY FAST MOVING TROUGH SLIDING DOWN THE FORWARD SIDE
OF A SHARP EPAC/GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE. THE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY OVER
THE PAC NW AND IS WASTING NO TIME AT ALL SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND
IT`LL REMAIN NEARLY ADJACENT TO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND BRING WITH
IT ANOTHER POOL OF COLD AIR...STEEPENING TEMP LAPSE RATES...AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. IN MY YEARS OF FORECASTING EXPERIENCE THESE
FAST MOVING GREATLY CONCENTRATED DYNAMIC SYSTEMS CAN CATCH AN AREA
OFF-GUARD AND MUST BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS IT`S INHERENTLY DIFFICULT
FOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO CAPTURE THEM WELL ENOUGH MOST
TIMES. THE CAVEAT CONCERNING THIS TROUGH IS THE PROXIMITY TO OUR
COASTLINE WITH WHICH IT WILL BE...THE CONTINUED STEEPENED TEMP
LAPSE RATES...THE OVER WATER TRAJECTORY...ITS ARRIVAL DURING TOMORROW`S
DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE...AND LASTLY BUT JUST AS IMPORTANT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR PARTICULARLY
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES S-SE WINDS AT
KSNS BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR INSTANCE. THE SHAPE
AND ORIENTATION OF THE SALINAS VALLEY IS QUITE FAVORABLE ALONE FOR
S-SE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. IT`S DIFFICULT TO FIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS PARTICULAR LOW EVEN WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP AND SURFACE WIND FIELDS...BUT THE 18Z
GFS RUN SEEMED TO SHOW A HINT OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE
ADVERTISES THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET-UP BY THE DAY SHIFT. THE MAIN FOCUS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE TO FOCUS MORE CLOSELY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND FOCUS LESS ON THE MODEL FORECASTS.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FALLS IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME-FRAME MONDAY.

BEGINNING TUESDAY THE EPAC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES A RETURN VISIT
TO CA AND COULD BE STAYING HERE FOR A WHILE...I.E. INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL IN
RECENT DAYS WHILE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVER THE
EPAC. THE 00Z AS WELL AS THE 12Z ECMWF WANT TO CLOSE OFF A MID
LEVEL LOW OVER 34N/150W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHOW SOME EASTWARD
MOVEMENT IN THE OVERALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE POLAR JET AND
SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAMS MERGE. IMPLICATIONS HERE INCLUDE THE CHANCE
FOR LOWER LATITUDE FLOW EVENTUALLY BRINGING RAINY WEATHER TO CA
SOMETIME BEYOND THE 10 DAY RANGE...BUT AM HAVING SOME DOUBT ABOUT
THE JET STREAM MERGING SCENARIO. IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE
NEWER 00Z ECMWF AND IF IT`S STILL ON BOARD WITH THIS OUTLINED
SCENARIO. ONLY RECENTLY IS IT THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN U.S. HAS BROADENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THESE
RECENT COLD POOLS OF AIR TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGHER
LATITUDES. RECENT NWS CPC 6-10 DAY/8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVE SHOWN 4
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LONGWAVE TROUGHS. IF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
CAN FLATTEN THEN PERHAPS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC LONGWAVE
TROUGH COULD BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN BUT THIS MIGHT TAKE AT LEAST
TIL MID MARCH TO FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST SUNDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
OCCASIONAL FEW TO SCATTERED LAYER. THERE EXIST A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OVER KMRY OR KSNS THIS EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AGAIN MONDAY TO KMRY
AND KSNS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT CU DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE BAY AREA WATERS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 020552
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
952 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BE TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
A WEAK AND QUICKLY MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
REGION MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST SUNDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT THAT BROUGHT A ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION SATURDAY DID A SIMILAR PERFORMANCE
TODAY BUT THE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS MUCH SMALLER AND CONCENTRATED
OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...ONE INITIATED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEARBY PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK THEN ADVANCED WESTWARD OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF IT
AND REACHED THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST/BIG SUR COASTLINE
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ONE LAST ISOLATED T-STORM REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY NEAR GONZALES JUST AFTER SUNSET AND BECAME ILLUMINATED
BY THE EVENING TWILIGHT AND A SERIES OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS PRODUCED MAINLY SMALL HAIL...LESS THAN 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

TODAY`S DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE PRODUCED A BEAUTIFUL ARRAY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE LANDSCAPE AGAINST A BACKDROP OF NEARLY CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BROUGHT IN RELATIVELY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FROM INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. MANY TIMES THE IMMEDIATE COAST`S SKY IS
A BIT WHITENED OUT BY SLIGHTLY HAZY CONDITIONS NORMAL TO A MARINE
BASED CLIMATE...BUT TODAY WAS JUST THE EXACT OPPOSITE...IT WAS A
NICE PLATFORM FOR CLOUD VIEWING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
MERGING WITH A VERY FAST MOVING TROUGH SLIDING DOWN THE FORWARD SIDE
OF A SHARP EPAC/GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE. THE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY OVER
THE PAC NW AND IS WASTING NO TIME AT ALL SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND
IT`LL REMAIN NEARLY ADJACENT TO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND BRING WITH
IT ANOTHER POOL OF COLD AIR...STEEPENING TEMP LAPSE RATES...AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. IN MY YEARS OF FORECASTING EXPERIENCE THESE
FAST MOVING GREATLY CONCENTRATED DYNAMIC SYSTEMS CAN CATCH AN AREA
OFF-GUARD AND MUST BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS IT`S INHERENTLY DIFFICULT
FOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO CAPTURE THEM WELL ENOUGH MOST
TIMES. THE CAVEAT CONCERNING THIS TROUGH IS THE PROXIMITY TO OUR
COASTLINE WITH WHICH IT WILL BE...THE CONTINUED STEEPENED TEMP
LAPSE RATES...THE OVER WATER TRAJECTORY...ITS ARRIVAL DURING TOMORROW`S
DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE...AND LASTLY BUT JUST AS IMPORTANT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR PARTICULARLY
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES S-SE WINDS AT
KSNS BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR INSTANCE. THE SHAPE
AND ORIENTATION OF THE SALINAS VALLEY IS QUITE FAVORABLE ALONE FOR
S-SE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. IT`S DIFFICULT TO FIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS PARTICULAR LOW EVEN WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP AND SURFACE WIND FIELDS...BUT THE 18Z
GFS RUN SEEMED TO SHOW A HINT OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT RACING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE
ADVERTISES THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET-UP BY THE DAY SHIFT. THE MAIN FOCUS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE TO FOCUS MORE CLOSELY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND FOCUS LESS ON THE MODEL FORECASTS.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FALLS IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME-FRAME MONDAY.

BEGINNING TUESDAY THE EPAC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAKES A RETURN VISIT
TO CA AND COULD BE STAYING HERE FOR A WHILE...I.E. INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL IN
RECENT DAYS WHILE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVER THE
EPAC. THE 00Z AS WELL AS THE 12Z ECMWF WANT TO CLOSE OFF A MID
LEVEL LOW OVER 34N/150W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHOW SOME EASTWARD
MOVEMENT IN THE OVERALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE POLAR JET AND
SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAMS MERGE. IMPLICATIONS HERE INCLUDE THE CHANCE
FOR LOWER LATITUDE FLOW EVENTUALLY BRINGING RAINY WEATHER TO CA
SOMETIME BEYOND THE 10 DAY RANGE...BUT AM HAVING SOME DOUBT ABOUT
THE JET STREAM MERGING SCENARIO. IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE
NEWER 00Z ECMWF AND IF IT`S STILL ON BOARD WITH THIS OUTLINED
SCENARIO. ONLY RECENTLY IS IT THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN U.S. HAS BROADENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THESE
RECENT COLD POOLS OF AIR TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGHER
LATITUDES. RECENT NWS CPC 6-10 DAY/8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVE SHOWN 4
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LONGWAVE TROUGHS. IF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
CAN FLATTEN THEN PERHAPS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC LONGWAVE
TROUGH COULD BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN BUT THIS MIGHT TAKE AT LEAST
TIL MID MARCH TO FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST SUNDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
OCCASIONAL FEW TO SCATTERED LAYER. THERE EXIST A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OVER KMRY OR KSNS THIS EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AGAIN MONDAY TO KMRY
AND KSNS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT CU DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE BAY AREA WATERS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 020525
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET OTHERWISE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS IS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME. SO FAR ABOUT 10 CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES DETECTED BUT
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MESOSCALE MODELS CAPTURED THIS WELL AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE CELLS WESTWARD OVER COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY
(ROUGHLY THROUGH FORT HUNTER LIGGETT/JOLON/LOCKWOOD AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARDS THE BIG SUR COAST AROUND GORDA). MAIN THREAT WILL BE SMALL
HAIL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE CELLS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS UPPER LOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE BAY AREA IS ENJOYING A SUNNY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING OVER
MT HAMILTON AND THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS. THESE CLOUDS WILL COLLAPSE AS
THE SUN SETS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL DIVE DOWN THE
COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN RAIN SHIELD
WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER PROXIMITY
OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD DESTABILIZE THINGS ALOFT TO ALLOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS. FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HILLS OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM.

ONCE AGAIN AS THE SUN SETS ON MONDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING CELLS
WILL COLLAPSE.

AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
AND BAY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEK WITH MILD NIGHTS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING SOLAR SUN ANGLE.

UNFORTUNATELY WE STILL NEED MORE RAIN AND THE WET SEASON IS
QUICKLY ENDING. THE MODELS LOOK MOSTLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
WITH SOME HINT FOR SOME RAIN BY MID-MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 PM PST SUNDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
OCCASIONAL FEW TO SCATTERED LAYER. NO SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT
OVER AREA TERMINALS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AGAIN
MONDAY TO KMRY AND KSNS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:39 PM PST SUNDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. A MIXED SWELL WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM/CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 020525
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET OTHERWISE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS IS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME. SO FAR ABOUT 10 CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES DETECTED BUT
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MESOSCALE MODELS CAPTURED THIS WELL AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE CELLS WESTWARD OVER COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY
(ROUGHLY THROUGH FORT HUNTER LIGGETT/JOLON/LOCKWOOD AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARDS THE BIG SUR COAST AROUND GORDA). MAIN THREAT WILL BE SMALL
HAIL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE CELLS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS UPPER LOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE BAY AREA IS ENJOYING A SUNNY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING OVER
MT HAMILTON AND THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS. THESE CLOUDS WILL COLLAPSE AS
THE SUN SETS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL DIVE DOWN THE
COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN RAIN SHIELD
WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER PROXIMITY
OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD DESTABILIZE THINGS ALOFT TO ALLOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS. FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HILLS OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM.

ONCE AGAIN AS THE SUN SETS ON MONDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING CELLS
WILL COLLAPSE.

AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
AND BAY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEK WITH MILD NIGHTS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING SOLAR SUN ANGLE.

UNFORTUNATELY WE STILL NEED MORE RAIN AND THE WET SEASON IS
QUICKLY ENDING. THE MODELS LOOK MOSTLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
WITH SOME HINT FOR SOME RAIN BY MID-MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 PM PST SUNDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
OCCASIONAL FEW TO SCATTERED LAYER. NO SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT
OVER AREA TERMINALS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AGAIN
MONDAY TO KMRY AND KSNS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:39 PM PST SUNDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. A MIXED SWELL WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM/CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 020010
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
410 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET OTHERWISE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS IS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME. SO FAR ABOUT 10 CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES DETECTED BUT
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MESOSCALE MODELS CAPTURED THIS WELL AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE CELLS WESTWARD OVER COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY
(ROUGHLY THROUGH FORT HUNTER LIGGETT/JOLON/LOCKWOOD AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARDS THE BIG SUR COAST AROUND GORDA). MAIN THREAT WILL BE SMALL
HAIL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE CELLS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS UPPER LOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE BAY AREA IS ENJOYING A SUNNY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING OVER
MT HAMILTON AND THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS. THESE CLOUDS WILL COLLAPSE AS
THE SUN SETS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL DIVE DOWN THE
COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN RAIN SHIELD
WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER PROXIMITY
OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD DESTABILIZE THINGS ALOFT TO ALLOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS. FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HILLS OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM.

ONCE AGAIN AS THE SUN SETS ON MONDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING CELLS
WILL COLLAPSE.

AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
AND BAY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEK WITH MILD NIGHTS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING SOLAR SUN ANGLE.

UNFORTUNATELY WE STILL NEED MORE RAIN AND THE WET SEASON IS
QUICKLY ENDING. THE MODELS LOOK MOSTLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
WITH SOME HINT FOR SOME RAIN BY MID-MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST SUNDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
OCCASIONAL FEW TO SCATTERED LAYER. THERE EXIST A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OVER KMRY OR KSNS THIS EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AGAIN MONDAY TO KMRY
AND KSNS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT CU DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE BAY AREA WATERS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 020010
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
410 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET OTHERWISE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS IS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME. SO FAR ABOUT 10 CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES DETECTED BUT
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MESOSCALE MODELS CAPTURED THIS WELL AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE CELLS WESTWARD OVER COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY
(ROUGHLY THROUGH FORT HUNTER LIGGETT/JOLON/LOCKWOOD AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARDS THE BIG SUR COAST AROUND GORDA). MAIN THREAT WILL BE SMALL
HAIL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE CELLS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS UPPER LOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE BAY AREA IS ENJOYING A SUNNY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING OVER
MT HAMILTON AND THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS. THESE CLOUDS WILL COLLAPSE AS
THE SUN SETS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL DIVE DOWN THE
COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN RAIN SHIELD
WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER PROXIMITY
OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD DESTABILIZE THINGS ALOFT TO ALLOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS. FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HILLS OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM.

ONCE AGAIN AS THE SUN SETS ON MONDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING CELLS
WILL COLLAPSE.

AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
AND BAY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEK WITH MILD NIGHTS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING SOLAR SUN ANGLE.

UNFORTUNATELY WE STILL NEED MORE RAIN AND THE WET SEASON IS
QUICKLY ENDING. THE MODELS LOOK MOSTLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
WITH SOME HINT FOR SOME RAIN BY MID-MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST SUNDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
OCCASIONAL FEW TO SCATTERED LAYER. THERE EXIST A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OVER KMRY OR KSNS THIS EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AGAIN MONDAY TO KMRY
AND KSNS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT CU DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE BAY AREA WATERS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 020010
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
410 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET OTHERWISE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS IS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME. SO FAR ABOUT 10 CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES DETECTED BUT
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MESOSCALE MODELS CAPTURED THIS WELL AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE CELLS WESTWARD OVER COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY
(ROUGHLY THROUGH FORT HUNTER LIGGETT/JOLON/LOCKWOOD AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARDS THE BIG SUR COAST AROUND GORDA). MAIN THREAT WILL BE SMALL
HAIL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE CELLS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS UPPER LOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE BAY AREA IS ENJOYING A SUNNY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING OVER
MT HAMILTON AND THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS. THESE CLOUDS WILL COLLAPSE AS
THE SUN SETS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL DIVE DOWN THE
COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN RAIN SHIELD
WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER PROXIMITY
OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD DESTABILIZE THINGS ALOFT TO ALLOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS. FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HILLS OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM.

ONCE AGAIN AS THE SUN SETS ON MONDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING CELLS
WILL COLLAPSE.

AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
AND BAY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEK WITH MILD NIGHTS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING SOLAR SUN ANGLE.

UNFORTUNATELY WE STILL NEED MORE RAIN AND THE WET SEASON IS
QUICKLY ENDING. THE MODELS LOOK MOSTLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
WITH SOME HINT FOR SOME RAIN BY MID-MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST SUNDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
OCCASIONAL FEW TO SCATTERED LAYER. THERE EXIST A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OVER KMRY OR KSNS THIS EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AGAIN MONDAY TO KMRY
AND KSNS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT CU DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE BAY AREA WATERS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020010
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
410 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET OTHERWISE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS IS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME. SO FAR ABOUT 10 CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES DETECTED BUT
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MESOSCALE MODELS CAPTURED THIS WELL AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE CELLS WESTWARD OVER COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY
(ROUGHLY THROUGH FORT HUNTER LIGGETT/JOLON/LOCKWOOD AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARDS THE BIG SUR COAST AROUND GORDA). MAIN THREAT WILL BE SMALL
HAIL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE CELLS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS UPPER LOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE BAY AREA IS ENJOYING A SUNNY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING OVER
MT HAMILTON AND THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS. THESE CLOUDS WILL COLLAPSE AS
THE SUN SETS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL DIVE DOWN THE
COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN RAIN SHIELD
WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER PROXIMITY
OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD DESTABILIZE THINGS ALOFT TO ALLOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS. FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HILLS OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM.

ONCE AGAIN AS THE SUN SETS ON MONDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING CELLS
WILL COLLAPSE.

AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
AND BAY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEK WITH MILD NIGHTS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING SOLAR SUN ANGLE.

UNFORTUNATELY WE STILL NEED MORE RAIN AND THE WET SEASON IS
QUICKLY ENDING. THE MODELS LOOK MOSTLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
WITH SOME HINT FOR SOME RAIN BY MID-MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST SUNDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
OCCASIONAL FEW TO SCATTERED LAYER. THERE EXIST A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OVER KMRY OR KSNS THIS EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AGAIN MONDAY TO KMRY
AND KSNS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT CU DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE BAY AREA WATERS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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