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000
FXUS66 KMTR 232150
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. THERE IS A MODERATE SEABREEZE AS THE
ONSHORE GRADIENT IS AROUND 2 MB FROM SFO TO SAC...WHICH IS WEAKER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SONOMA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. A
DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS
FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEST BEGINNING ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE DISTRICT. INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
80S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. CONCERN FOR
TODAY WILL BE GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. CONF IS HIGH. FOR TONIGHT...CONF DECREASES
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR
NOW...WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS 2-3K FEET.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING CIGS TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 15 KT WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
BY TOMORROW MORNING.. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL JET...NEAR SANTA CRUZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF POINT SUR. IN ADDITION...BOTH BAYS
WILL BE WINDY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE
WILL A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY 2-3FT WITH A PD OF 20 SEC...THEN
2-4FT WITH A PD OF 18-19 SEC ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTH SWELL MAY GET
MIXED OUT A LITTLE BIT WITH A MODERATE NW WIND AND MODERATE NW
SWELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 232150
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. THERE IS A MODERATE SEABREEZE AS THE
ONSHORE GRADIENT IS AROUND 2 MB FROM SFO TO SAC...WHICH IS WEAKER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SONOMA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. A
DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS
FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEST BEGINNING ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE DISTRICT. INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
80S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. CONCERN FOR
TODAY WILL BE GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. CONF IS HIGH. FOR TONIGHT...CONF DECREASES
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR
NOW...WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS 2-3K FEET.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING CIGS TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 15 KT WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
BY TOMORROW MORNING.. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL JET...NEAR SANTA CRUZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF POINT SUR. IN ADDITION...BOTH BAYS
WILL BE WINDY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE
WILL A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY 2-3FT WITH A PD OF 20 SEC...THEN
2-4FT WITH A PD OF 18-19 SEC ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTH SWELL MAY GET
MIXED OUT A LITTLE BIT WITH A MODERATE NW WIND AND MODERATE NW
SWELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 231739
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1039 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING
AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME BY
AS MANY AS 9 DEGREES. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
STATE TODAY...HIGHS TODAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE ON TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER...1.2
MB AS COMPARED TO 3.4 MB 24 HOURS AGO.

A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHER PORTIONS OF SONOMA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEST BEGINNING ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE DISTRICT. INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
80S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. CONCERN FOR
TODAY WILL BE GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. CONF IS HIGH. FOR TONIGHT...CONF DECREASES
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR
NOW...WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS 2-3K FEET.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING CIGS TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 15 KT WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
BY TOMORROW MORNING.. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL JET...NEAR SANTA CRUZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF POINT SUR. IN ADDITION...BOTH BAYS
WILL BE WINDY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE
WILL A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY 2-3FT WITH A PD OF 20 SEC...THEN
2-4FT WITH A PD OF 18-19 SEC ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTH SWELL MAY GET
MIXED OUT A LITTLE BIT WITH A MODERATE NW WIND AND MODERATE NW
SWELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 231739
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1039 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING
AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME BY
AS MANY AS 9 DEGREES. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
STATE TODAY...HIGHS TODAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE ON TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER...1.2
MB AS COMPARED TO 3.4 MB 24 HOURS AGO.

A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHER PORTIONS OF SONOMA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEST BEGINNING ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE DISTRICT. INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
80S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. CONCERN FOR
TODAY WILL BE GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. CONF IS HIGH. FOR TONIGHT...CONF DECREASES
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR
NOW...WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS 2-3K FEET.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING CIGS TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 15 KT WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
BY TOMORROW MORNING.. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL JET...NEAR SANTA CRUZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF POINT SUR. IN ADDITION...BOTH BAYS
WILL BE WINDY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE
WILL A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY 2-3FT WITH A PD OF 20 SEC...THEN
2-4FT WITH A PD OF 18-19 SEC ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTH SWELL MAY GET
MIXED OUT A LITTLE BIT WITH A MODERATE NW WIND AND MODERATE NW
SWELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 231545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING
AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME BY
AS MANY AS 9 DEGREES. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
STATE TODAY...HIGHS TODAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE ON TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER...1.2
MB AS COMPARED TO 3.4 MB 24 HOURS AGO.

A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHER PORTIONS OF SONOMA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEST BEGINNING ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE DISTRICT. INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
80S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING
REPORTED BELOW 12000 FEET. YESTERDAYS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DRIED THE ATMOSPHERE OUT SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AN
ISSUE THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS IN THE MEANTIME. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 1000Z
THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS 15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

CONFIDENCE HIGH

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE HIGH

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:19 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF PT SUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 231545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING
AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME BY
AS MANY AS 9 DEGREES. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
STATE TODAY...HIGHS TODAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE ON TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER...1.2
MB AS COMPARED TO 3.4 MB 24 HOURS AGO.

A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHER PORTIONS OF SONOMA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEST BEGINNING ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE DISTRICT. INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE
80S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING
REPORTED BELOW 12000 FEET. YESTERDAYS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DRIED THE ATMOSPHERE OUT SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AN
ISSUE THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS IN THE MEANTIME. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 1000Z
THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS 15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

CONFIDENCE HIGH

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE HIGH

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:19 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF PT SUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 231129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
429 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHILE INLAND
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT
AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVING SAID THAT...FORECAST MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. MOISTURE
ADVECTION BECOMES LIMITED BY SATURDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. INLAND
VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH TYPICAL
WARM SPOTS PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING
REPORTED BELOW 12000 FEET. YESTERDAYS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DRIED THE ATMOSPHERE OUT SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AN
ISSUE THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS IN THE MEANTIME. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 1000Z
THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS 15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

CONFIDENCE HIGH

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE HIGH

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:19 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF PT SUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 231129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
429 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHILE INLAND
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT
AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVING SAID THAT...FORECAST MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. MOISTURE
ADVECTION BECOMES LIMITED BY SATURDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. INLAND
VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH TYPICAL
WARM SPOTS PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING
REPORTED BELOW 12000 FEET. YESTERDAYS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DRIED THE ATMOSPHERE OUT SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AN
ISSUE THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS IN THE MEANTIME. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 1000Z
THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS 15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

CONFIDENCE HIGH

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE HIGH

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:19 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF PT SUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 231114
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
414 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHILE INLAND
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT
AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVING SAID THAT...FORECAST MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. MOISTURE
ADVECTION BECOMES LIMITED BY SATURDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. INLAND
VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH TYPICAL
WARM SPOTS PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. MODERATE AND GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THRU THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE REGION. SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED OVER KSFO
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:26 PM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAINING SOUTH OF POINT PINOS. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 231114
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
414 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHILE INLAND
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT
AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVING SAID THAT...FORECAST MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MARGINAL WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. MOISTURE
ADVECTION BECOMES LIMITED BY SATURDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. INLAND
VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH TYPICAL
WARM SPOTS PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. MODERATE AND GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THRU THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE REGION. SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED OVER KSFO
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:26 PM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAINING SOUTH OF POINT PINOS. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 230536
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE DISTRICT EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NOW PUSHED INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WERE COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA AND 10-20 DEGREES
COOLER IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LOCAL GUSTY
WINDS 30-45 MPH WERE REPORTED TODAY MAINLY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS
TO A MINIMUM AT NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER THAN THE LAST SYSTEM AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN
TERMS OF TIMING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON FRIDAY BUT IT COULD
START AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS 1/4-1/2
INCH IN THE NORTH BAY AND 1/4 INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AND
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH
WARMEST AREAS REACHING THE LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. MODERATE AND GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THRU THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE REGION. SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED OVER KSFO
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:26 PM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAINING SOUTH OF POINT PINOS. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 230536
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE DISTRICT EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NOW PUSHED INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WERE COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA AND 10-20 DEGREES
COOLER IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LOCAL GUSTY
WINDS 30-45 MPH WERE REPORTED TODAY MAINLY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS
TO A MINIMUM AT NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER THAN THE LAST SYSTEM AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN
TERMS OF TIMING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON FRIDAY BUT IT COULD
START AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS 1/4-1/2
INCH IN THE NORTH BAY AND 1/4 INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AND
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH
WARMEST AREAS REACHING THE LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. MODERATE AND GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THRU THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE REGION. SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED OVER KSFO
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:26 PM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAINING SOUTH OF POINT PINOS. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 230345
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE DISTRICT EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NOW PUSHED INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WERE COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA AND 10-20 DEGREES
COOLER IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LOCAL GUSTY
WINDS 30-45 MPH WERE REPORTED TODAY MAINLY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS
TO A MINIMUM AT NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER THAN THE LAST SYSTEM AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN
TERMS OF TIMING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON FRIDAY BUT IT COULD
START AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS 1/4-1/2
INCH IN THE NORTH BAY AND 1/4 INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AND
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH
WARMEST AREAS REACHING THE LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:59 PM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MODERATE WEST WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO EASE
OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH 9 PM (04Z) TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL EASE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAINING SOUTH OF POINT PINOS. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 230345
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE DISTRICT EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NOW PUSHED INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WERE COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA AND 10-20 DEGREES
COOLER IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LOCAL GUSTY
WINDS 30-45 MPH WERE REPORTED TODAY MAINLY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS
TO A MINIMUM AT NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER THAN THE LAST SYSTEM AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN
TERMS OF TIMING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON FRIDAY BUT IT COULD
START AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS 1/4-1/2
INCH IN THE NORTH BAY AND 1/4 INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AND
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH
WARMEST AREAS REACHING THE LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:59 PM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MODERATE WEST WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO EASE
OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH 9 PM (04Z) TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL EASE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAINING SOUTH OF POINT PINOS. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 222359
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
459 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT QUICKLY RACED ACROSS LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY -- IN SOME SPOTS MORE THAN 10
DEGREES. BIGGER STORY FOR THE DAY HAVE BEEN THE LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS. LOTS OF REPORTS
OF GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE FOR SPOTS ABOVE 1500 FEET.
FORECAST POINTS TO THE GRADIENTS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE SPEEDS. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. MOST
METRO LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL
MOVE TO THE BC/PACNW COAST. AFTER A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY ON WEDNESDAY SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE WARM-UP WILL BE BRIEF AND TEMPS WILL
RETREAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS STREAM BACK ACROSS AND SHOWERS
MOVE BACK TO OUR AREA. MODELS ARE FOCUSING IN ON FRIDAY MORNING TO
AFTERNOON FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. CNRFC VALUES ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MOST URBAN SPOTS
FORECAST TO PICK UP LESS THAN A TENTH FOR ALL OF FRIDAY. HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS COULD GET UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE THROUGH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE 30S AGAIN FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS AND 40S FOR URBAN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS ALOFT START
TO WARM. VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER VERY MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
SUNDAY. ANY RAINFALL FROM THAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR AREA FOR NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MANY INLAND SPOTS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH EVEN SOME 90S POSSIBLE. COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM ALSO WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:59 PM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MODERATE WEST WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO EASE
OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH 9 PM (04Z) TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL EASE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAINING SOUTH OF POINT PINOS. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 222359
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
459 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT QUICKLY RACED ACROSS LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY -- IN SOME SPOTS MORE THAN 10
DEGREES. BIGGER STORY FOR THE DAY HAVE BEEN THE LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS. LOTS OF REPORTS
OF GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE FOR SPOTS ABOVE 1500 FEET.
FORECAST POINTS TO THE GRADIENTS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE SPEEDS. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. MOST
METRO LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL
MOVE TO THE BC/PACNW COAST. AFTER A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY ON WEDNESDAY SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE WARM-UP WILL BE BRIEF AND TEMPS WILL
RETREAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS STREAM BACK ACROSS AND SHOWERS
MOVE BACK TO OUR AREA. MODELS ARE FOCUSING IN ON FRIDAY MORNING TO
AFTERNOON FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. CNRFC VALUES ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MOST URBAN SPOTS
FORECAST TO PICK UP LESS THAN A TENTH FOR ALL OF FRIDAY. HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS COULD GET UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE THROUGH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE 30S AGAIN FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS AND 40S FOR URBAN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS ALOFT START
TO WARM. VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER VERY MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
SUNDAY. ANY RAINFALL FROM THAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR AREA FOR NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MANY INLAND SPOTS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH EVEN SOME 90S POSSIBLE. COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM ALSO WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:59 PM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MODERATE WEST WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO EASE
OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH 9 PM (04Z) TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL EASE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAINING SOUTH OF POINT PINOS. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 222159
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
259 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT QUICKLY RACED ACROSS LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY -- IN SOME SPOTS MORE THAN 10
DEGREES. BIGGER STORY FOR THE DAY HAVE BEEN THE LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS. LOTS OF REPORTS
OF GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE FOR SPOTS ABOVE 1500 FEET.
FORECAST POINTS TO THE GRADIENTS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE SPEEDS. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. MOST
METRO LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL
MOVE TO THE BC/PACNW COAST. AFTER A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY ON WEDNESDAY SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE WARM-UP WILL BE BRIEF AND TEMPS WILL
RETREAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS STREAM BACK ACROSS AND SHOWERS
MOVE BACK TO OUR AREA. MODELS ARE FOCUSING IN ON FRIDAY MORNING TO
AFTERNOON FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. CNRFC VALUES ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MOST URBAN SPOTS
FORECAST TO PICK UP LESS THAN A TENTH FOR ALL OF FRIDAY. HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS COULD GET UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE THROUGH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE 30S AGAIN FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS AND 40S FOR URBAN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS ALOFT START
TO WARM. VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER VERY MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
SUNDAY. ANY RAINFALL FROM THAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR AREA FOR NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MANY INLAND SPOTS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH EVEN SOME 90S POSSIBLE. COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM ALSO WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVED OVER
THE REGION WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND SPEED MAY HAVE EASED A
TAD THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS IN THE 3-5K FEET RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH PD. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 3K FEET...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
BORDERLINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WINDS UP TO 34 KT AND WILL KEEP
IT THAT WAY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS OVER ALL THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS
WILL EVEN BE STRONG IN SF AND MONTEREY BAYS. STEEP WIND WAVES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 222159
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
259 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT QUICKLY RACED ACROSS LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY -- IN SOME SPOTS MORE THAN 10
DEGREES. BIGGER STORY FOR THE DAY HAVE BEEN THE LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS. LOTS OF REPORTS
OF GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE FOR SPOTS ABOVE 1500 FEET.
FORECAST POINTS TO THE GRADIENTS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE SPEEDS. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. MOST
METRO LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL
MOVE TO THE BC/PACNW COAST. AFTER A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY ON WEDNESDAY SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE WARM-UP WILL BE BRIEF AND TEMPS WILL
RETREAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS STREAM BACK ACROSS AND SHOWERS
MOVE BACK TO OUR AREA. MODELS ARE FOCUSING IN ON FRIDAY MORNING TO
AFTERNOON FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. CNRFC VALUES ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MOST URBAN SPOTS
FORECAST TO PICK UP LESS THAN A TENTH FOR ALL OF FRIDAY. HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS COULD GET UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE THROUGH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE 30S AGAIN FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS AND 40S FOR URBAN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS ALOFT START
TO WARM. VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER VERY MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
SUNDAY. ANY RAINFALL FROM THAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR AREA FOR NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. BY WEDNESDAY MANY INLAND SPOTS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH EVEN SOME 90S POSSIBLE. COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM ALSO WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVED OVER
THE REGION WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND SPEED MAY HAVE EASED A
TAD THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS IN THE 3-5K FEET RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH PD. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 3K FEET...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
BORDERLINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WINDS UP TO 34 KT AND WILL KEEP
IT THAT WAY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS OVER ALL THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS
WILL EVEN BE STRONG IN SF AND MONTEREY BAYS. STEEP WIND WAVES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221720
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1020 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 AM PDT TUESDAY...FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA. DID A MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS PLUS REDUCED SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE HILLS WITH LOCALLY OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY EASE BY TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE ESPECIALLY FOR SPOTS
OVER 1000 FEET. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DIP TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
READINGS BUT SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 40S. LATEST GUIDANCE
IN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON FRIDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH CNRFC NUMBERS INDICATE LESS THAN 1/10" WILL BE PICKED UP
FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE
REPORTED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN
DIGGING A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION AND HOW FAR SOUTH
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN
THE COMING DAYS. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, RIDGING LOOKS TO REBUILD
BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVED OVER
THE REGION WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND SPEED MAY HAVE EASED A
TAD THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS IN THE 3-5K FEET RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH PD. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 3K FEET...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
BORDERLINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WINDS UP TO 34 KT AND WILL KEEP
IT THAT WAY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS OVER ALL THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS
WILL EVEN BE STRONG IN SF AND MONTEREY BAYS. STEEP WIND WAVES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 221720
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1020 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 AM PDT TUESDAY...FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA. DID A MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS PLUS REDUCED SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE HILLS WITH LOCALLY OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY EASE BY TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE ESPECIALLY FOR SPOTS
OVER 1000 FEET. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DIP TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
READINGS BUT SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 40S. LATEST GUIDANCE
IN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON FRIDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH CNRFC NUMBERS INDICATE LESS THAN 1/10" WILL BE PICKED UP
FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE
REPORTED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN
DIGGING A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION AND HOW FAR SOUTH
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN
THE COMING DAYS. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, RIDGING LOOKS TO REBUILD
BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVED OVER
THE REGION WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND SPEED MAY HAVE EASED A
TAD THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS IN THE 3-5K FEET RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH PD. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 3K FEET...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
BORDERLINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WINDS UP TO 34 KT AND WILL KEEP
IT THAT WAY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GUSTY NW WINDS OVER ALL THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS
WILL EVEN BE STRONG IN SF AND MONTEREY BAYS. STEEP WIND WAVES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221549
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
849 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 AM PDT TUESDAY...FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA. DID A MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS PLUS REDUCED SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE HILLS WITH LOCALLY OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY EASE BY TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE ESPECIALLY FOR SPOTS
OVER 1000 FEET. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DIP TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
READINGS BUT SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 40S. LATEST GUIDANCE
IN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON FRIDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH CNRFC NUMBERS INDICATE LESS THAN 1/10" WILL BE PICKED UP
FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE
REPORTED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN
DIGGING A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION AND HOW FAR SOUTH
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN
THE COMING DAYS. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, RIDGING LOOKS TO REBUILD
BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN PICKING UP IN MANY LOCATIONS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND NORTH
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH APPRECIABLE COOLING SEEN IN
THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. DEEPLY LAYERED NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINK UP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE`S NOT MUCH NORTHERLY
GRADIENT EXPECTED TODAY BUT THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM SFO-SAC WILL CLIMB TO 5 MB TODAY PER THE RECENT NAM MODEL.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 KNOTS THIS MORNING MAY
TRAIL BACK A LITTLE BEFORE RE-SURGING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE TIMING OF
THE STRONGER WINDS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPLY LAYERED
NW WINDS LINK UP TODAY. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR WINDS MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY. VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR THIS MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
UP TODAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE BAYS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 9 AM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221549
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
849 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 AM PDT TUESDAY...FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA. DID A MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS PLUS REDUCED SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE HILLS WITH LOCALLY OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY EASE BY TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE ESPECIALLY FOR SPOTS
OVER 1000 FEET. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DIP TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
READINGS BUT SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 40S. LATEST GUIDANCE
IN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON FRIDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH CNRFC NUMBERS INDICATE LESS THAN 1/10" WILL BE PICKED UP
FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE
REPORTED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN
DIGGING A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION AND HOW FAR SOUTH
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN
THE COMING DAYS. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, RIDGING LOOKS TO REBUILD
BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN PICKING UP IN MANY LOCATIONS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND NORTH
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH APPRECIABLE COOLING SEEN IN
THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. DEEPLY LAYERED NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINK UP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE`S NOT MUCH NORTHERLY
GRADIENT EXPECTED TODAY BUT THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM SFO-SAC WILL CLIMB TO 5 MB TODAY PER THE RECENT NAM MODEL.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 KNOTS THIS MORNING MAY
TRAIL BACK A LITTLE BEFORE RE-SURGING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE TIMING OF
THE STRONGER WINDS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPLY LAYERED
NW WINDS LINK UP TODAY. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR WINDS MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY. VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR THIS MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
UP TODAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE BAYS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 9 AM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
500 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:05 AM PDT TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
NOW PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE REPORTED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECTING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN
DIGGING A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION AND HOW FAR SOUTH
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN
THE COMING DAYS. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, RIDGING LOOKS TO REBUILD
BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN PICKING UP IN MANY LOCATIONS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND NORTH
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH APPRECIABLE COOLING SEEN IN
THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. DEEPLY LAYERED NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINK UP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE`S NOT MUCH NORTHERLY
GRADIENT EXPECTED TODAY BUT THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM SFO-SAC WILL CLIMB TO 5 MB TODAY PER THE RECENT NAM MODEL.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 KNOTS THIS MORNING MAY
TRAIL BACK A LITTLE BEFORE RE-SURGING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE TIMING OF
THE STRONGER WINDS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPLY LAYERED
NW WINDS LINK UP TODAY. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR WINDS MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY. VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR THIS MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
UP TODAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE BAYS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 9 AM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
500 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:05 AM PDT TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
NOW PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE REPORTED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECTING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN
DIGGING A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION AND HOW FAR SOUTH
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN
THE COMING DAYS. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, RIDGING LOOKS TO REBUILD
BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN PICKING UP IN MANY LOCATIONS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND NORTH
CENTRAL COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH APPRECIABLE COOLING SEEN IN
THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. DEEPLY LAYERED NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINK UP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE`S NOT MUCH NORTHERLY
GRADIENT EXPECTED TODAY BUT THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM SFO-SAC WILL CLIMB TO 5 MB TODAY PER THE RECENT NAM MODEL.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 KNOTS THIS MORNING MAY
TRAIL BACK A LITTLE BEFORE RE-SURGING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE TIMING OF
THE STRONGER WINDS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPLY LAYERED
NW WINDS LINK UP TODAY. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR WINDS MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY. VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR THIS MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
UP TODAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE BAYS TODAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 9 AM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221109
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
409 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:05 AM PDT TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
NOW PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE REPORTED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECTING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN
DIGGING A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION AND HOW FAR SOUTH
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN
THE COMING DAYS. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, RIDGING LOOKS TO REBUILD
BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.



&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:33 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMRY AND KSNS THAT MAY
SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO
S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASING TUESDAY TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 33 KT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 10Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:33 PM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 9 AM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221109
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
409 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MIDWEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:05 AM PDT TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
NOW PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE REPORTED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECTING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BY THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN
DIGGING A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION AND HOW FAR SOUTH
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN
THE COMING DAYS. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, RIDGING LOOKS TO REBUILD
BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.



&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:33 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMRY AND KSNS THAT MAY
SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO
S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASING TUESDAY TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 33 KT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 10Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:33 PM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 9 AM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 220534
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1034 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE BAY AREA AND ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER PATCHY EARLY
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RACING
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SO FAR
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS FROM THE RADAR HAVE ONLY AMOUNTED TO VIRGA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOWER
CLOUDS ARE STILL OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z AND THIS IS WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY
AND ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL HILLS DOWN TO THE MRY BAY AREA.
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL AGAIN. THEN SOME WARMING
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET. THE
GFS IS WETTER AND BRINGS ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH TO THE WHOLE
DISTRICT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE
ECMWF HAS VERIFIED BETTER WITH THIS CURRENT SYSTEM SO BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECMWF MAY HAVE THE EDGE ON THE FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEYOND THAT THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THAT THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON AS WELL IN TERMS OF WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:33 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMRY AND KSNS THAT MAY
SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO
S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASING TUESDAY TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 33 KT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 10Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:33 PM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 220534
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1034 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE BAY AREA AND ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER PATCHY EARLY
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RACING
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SO FAR
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS FROM THE RADAR HAVE ONLY AMOUNTED TO VIRGA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOWER
CLOUDS ARE STILL OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z AND THIS IS WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY
AND ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL HILLS DOWN TO THE MRY BAY AREA.
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL AGAIN. THEN SOME WARMING
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET. THE
GFS IS WETTER AND BRINGS ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH TO THE WHOLE
DISTRICT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE
ECMWF HAS VERIFIED BETTER WITH THIS CURRENT SYSTEM SO BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECMWF MAY HAVE THE EDGE ON THE FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEYOND THAT THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THAT THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON AS WELL IN TERMS OF WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:33 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMRY AND KSNS THAT MAY
SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO
S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASING TUESDAY TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 33 KT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 10Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:33 PM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 220354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE BAY AREA AND ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURS WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER PATCHY EARLY
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RACING
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SO FAR
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS FROM THE RADAR HAVE ONLY AMOUNTED TO VIRGA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOWER
CLOUDS ARE STILL OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z AND THIS IS WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY
AND ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL HILLS DOWN TO THE MRY BAY AREA.
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL AGAIN. THEN SOME WARMING
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET. THE
GFS IS WETTER AND BRINGS ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH TO THE WHOLE
DISTRICT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE
ECMWF HAS VERIFIED BETTER WITH THIS CURRENT SYSTEM SO BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECMWF MAY HAVE THE EDGE ON THE FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEYOND THAT THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THAT THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON AS WELL IN TERMS OF WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:07 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER 3000 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMRY
AND KSNS THAT MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE WEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN
15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASING TUESDAY TO 20 TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 33 KT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT OVER KSNS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVER KMRY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE WEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:43 PM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 220354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE BAY AREA AND ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURS WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER PATCHY EARLY
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RACING
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SO FAR
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS FROM THE RADAR HAVE ONLY AMOUNTED TO VIRGA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOWER
CLOUDS ARE STILL OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z AND THIS IS WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY
AND ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL HILLS DOWN TO THE MRY BAY AREA.
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL AGAIN. THEN SOME WARMING
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET. THE
GFS IS WETTER AND BRINGS ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH TO THE WHOLE
DISTRICT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE
ECMWF HAS VERIFIED BETTER WITH THIS CURRENT SYSTEM SO BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECMWF MAY HAVE THE EDGE ON THE FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEYOND THAT THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THAT THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON AS WELL IN TERMS OF WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:07 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER 3000 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMRY
AND KSNS THAT MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE WEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN
15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASING TUESDAY TO 20 TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 33 KT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT OVER KSNS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVER KMRY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE WEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:43 PM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 220007
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
507 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE BAY AREA AND
ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND BREEZY ON TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT MONDAY...IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND ONSHORE BREEZES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. KMUX-88D HAS
PICKED UP ON SOME ELEVATED RETURNS ALL DAY BUT JUST SEEING SOME
MOISTURE HIGH UP IN THE CLOUDS. SURFACE FRONT OF INTEREST IS STILL
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST OF THE SONOMA COAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST WILL SHOW THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND ALONG THE COAST AS ANY PRE-EXISTING MARINE AIR WILL BE
LIFTED WITH COMBINATION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE AND A FEW SPRINKLES AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. QPF NUMBERS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS BY 15Z TUESDAY WITH THE COAST AND HILLS SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WHILE INLAND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
NO RAINFALL.

PARTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 50S AT THE COAST AND MID 60S INLAND.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOL AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER
RELATIVELY WARM SST TEMPS WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG NW BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST AND HILLS THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEDS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDS AND THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS STILL THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AND
UNFORTUNATELY THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS
REMAIN BULLISH IN DRIVING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BAY AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED COLD
CORE SHOWERS. ON AVERAGE THESE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT REMAINS DISCONCERTING THAT
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER...ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH...WHILE STILL SUGGESTING SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. SO EVEN THOUGH WERE ONLY ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. WE`VE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
WINTER WHERE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD STORM IN THE 4-5 DAY WINDOW
FALLS APART. THEREFORE FORECAST WASN`T ALTERED TOO MUCH ALTHOUGH
POPS IN GENERAL WERE NUDGED UPWARDS ON FRIDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE BIGGER QUESTION BEING
JUST HOW MUCH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY POTENTIALLY FALL. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK STORM BY SUNDAY WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE NORTH BAY. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT`S WEAK SYSTEM
AND THEN HOPE MODELS CONVERGE ON A MORE SINGULAR SOLUTION BY THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:07 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER 3000 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMRY
AND KSNS THAT MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE WEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN
15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASING TUESDAY TO 20 TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 33 KT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT OVER KSNS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVER KMRY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE WEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:43 PM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 220007
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
507 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE BAY AREA AND
ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND BREEZY ON TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT MONDAY...IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND ONSHORE BREEZES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. KMUX-88D HAS
PICKED UP ON SOME ELEVATED RETURNS ALL DAY BUT JUST SEEING SOME
MOISTURE HIGH UP IN THE CLOUDS. SURFACE FRONT OF INTEREST IS STILL
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST OF THE SONOMA COAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST WILL SHOW THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND ALONG THE COAST AS ANY PRE-EXISTING MARINE AIR WILL BE
LIFTED WITH COMBINATION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE AND A FEW SPRINKLES AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. QPF NUMBERS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS BY 15Z TUESDAY WITH THE COAST AND HILLS SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WHILE INLAND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
NO RAINFALL.

PARTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 50S AT THE COAST AND MID 60S INLAND.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOL AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER
RELATIVELY WARM SST TEMPS WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG NW BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST AND HILLS THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEDS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDS AND THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS STILL THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AND
UNFORTUNATELY THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS
REMAIN BULLISH IN DRIVING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BAY AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED COLD
CORE SHOWERS. ON AVERAGE THESE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT REMAINS DISCONCERTING THAT
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER...ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH...WHILE STILL SUGGESTING SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. SO EVEN THOUGH WERE ONLY ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. WE`VE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
WINTER WHERE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD STORM IN THE 4-5 DAY WINDOW
FALLS APART. THEREFORE FORECAST WASN`T ALTERED TOO MUCH ALTHOUGH
POPS IN GENERAL WERE NUDGED UPWARDS ON FRIDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE BIGGER QUESTION BEING
JUST HOW MUCH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY POTENTIALLY FALL. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK STORM BY SUNDAY WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE NORTH BAY. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT`S WEAK SYSTEM
AND THEN HOPE MODELS CONVERGE ON A MORE SINGULAR SOLUTION BY THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:07 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER 3000 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMRY
AND KSNS THAT MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND 1200 FEET OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE WEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN
15 TO 20 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASING TUESDAY TO 20 TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 33 KT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT OVER KSNS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVER KMRY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE WEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:43 PM PDT MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 212052
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
152 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE BAY AREA AND
ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND BREEZY ON TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT MONDAY...IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND ONSHORE BREEZES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. KMUX-88D HAS
PICKED UP ON SOME ELEVATED RETURNS ALL DAY BUT JUST SEEING SOME
MOISTURE HIGH UP IN THE CLOUDS. SURFACE FRONT OF INTEREST IS STILL
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST OF THE SONOMA COAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST WILL SHOW THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND ALONG THE COAST AS ANY PRE-EXISTING MARINE AIR WILL BE
LIFTED WITH COMBINATION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE AND A FEW SPRINKLES AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. QPF NUMBERS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS BY 15Z TUESDAY WITH THE COAST AND HILLS SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WHILE INLAND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
NO RAINFALL.

PARTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 50S AT THE COAST AND MID 60S INLAND.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOL AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER
RELATIVELY WARM SST TEMPS WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG NW BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST AND HILLS THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEDS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDS AND THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS STILL THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AND
UNFORTUNATELY THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS
REMAIN BULLISH IN DRIVING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BAY AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED COLD
CORE SHOWERS. ON AVERAGE THESE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT REMAINS DISCONCERTING THAT
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER...ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH...WHILE STILL SUGGESTING SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. SO EVEN THOUGH WERE ONLY ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. WE`VE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
WINTER WHERE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD STORM IN THE 4-5 DAY WINDOW
FALLS APART. THEREFORE FORECAST WASN`T ALTERED TOO MUCH ALTHOUGH
POPS IN GENERAL WERE NUDGED UPWARDS ON FRIDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE BIGGER QUESTION BEING
JUST HOW MUCH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY POTENTIALLY FALL. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK STORM BY SUNDAY WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE NORTH BAY. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT`S WEAK SYSTEM
AND THEN HOPE MODELS CONVERGE ON A MORE SINGULAR SOLUTION BY THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST MONDAY EVENING
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM. EXPECT THAT IF MVFR CIGS DO DEVELOP THEY
WON`T FORM AROUND SF BAY UNTIL AFTER THE EVENING RUSH AT ABOUT
08Z. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVE HIGH REGARDING LOW
CIGS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH MONDAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AROUND 08Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 21G27 KT BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND VEERING A
BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY TO
23G30KT BY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AROUND 04Z. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. A ROUGH BAR ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE BAYS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 212052
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
152 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE BAY AREA AND
ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY BAY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND BREEZY ON TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT MONDAY...IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND ONSHORE BREEZES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. KMUX-88D HAS
PICKED UP ON SOME ELEVATED RETURNS ALL DAY BUT JUST SEEING SOME
MOISTURE HIGH UP IN THE CLOUDS. SURFACE FRONT OF INTEREST IS STILL
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST OF THE SONOMA COAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST WILL SHOW THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND ALONG THE COAST AS ANY PRE-EXISTING MARINE AIR WILL BE
LIFTED WITH COMBINATION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE AND A FEW SPRINKLES AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. QPF NUMBERS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS BY 15Z TUESDAY WITH THE COAST AND HILLS SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WHILE INLAND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
NO RAINFALL.

PARTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 50S AT THE COAST AND MID 60S INLAND.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOL AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER
RELATIVELY WARM SST TEMPS WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG NW BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST AND HILLS THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEDS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDS AND THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS STILL THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AND
UNFORTUNATELY THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS
REMAIN BULLISH IN DRIVING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BAY AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED COLD
CORE SHOWERS. ON AVERAGE THESE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT REMAINS DISCONCERTING THAT
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER...ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH...WHILE STILL SUGGESTING SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. SO EVEN THOUGH WERE ONLY ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. WE`VE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS
WINTER WHERE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD STORM IN THE 4-5 DAY WINDOW
FALLS APART. THEREFORE FORECAST WASN`T ALTERED TOO MUCH ALTHOUGH
POPS IN GENERAL WERE NUDGED UPWARDS ON FRIDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE BIGGER QUESTION BEING
JUST HOW MUCH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY POTENTIALLY FALL. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK STORM BY SUNDAY WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE NORTH BAY. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT`S WEAK SYSTEM
AND THEN HOPE MODELS CONVERGE ON A MORE SINGULAR SOLUTION BY THIS
TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST MONDAY EVENING
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM. EXPECT THAT IF MVFR CIGS DO DEVELOP THEY
WON`T FORM AROUND SF BAY UNTIL AFTER THE EVENING RUSH AT ABOUT
08Z. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVE HIGH REGARDING LOW
CIGS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH MONDAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AROUND 08Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 21G27 KT BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND VEERING A
BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY TO
23G30KT BY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AROUND 04Z. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. A ROUGH BAR ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE BAYS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211755
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:01 AM PDT MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BAND IS
APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH BAY. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
RETURNS WITH MOISTURE IN THE HIGH CLOUDS BUT THERE IS A DEEP AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF ORGANIZED CLOUDS ABOUT 200 MILES
OFFSHORE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH SOME COLD
AIR CUMULUS NOTED ON SATELLITE OUT BEYOND 130W. ITS THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS THAT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND
ALONG THE COAST BUT QPF NUMBERS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OFFICIAL RFC
DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH
IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS. NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH ANY
SHOWERS ENDING BY ABOUT 15Z TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACT FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

DRYING TREND FOR THE DAY TUESDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN GENERAL. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS WITH A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CREATING RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES CONDUCIVE TO GOOD MIXING. UPSHOT IS FOR COOL AND BREEZY
WEATHER NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME FAIRLY COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 40S DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS BY SUNRISE WEDS.

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THE
GEM AND GFS MODELS REMAIN BULLISH IN DROPPING A COLD AND WET
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAY AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AS WELL BUT NOT NEARLY AS WET WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND LESS OVER-WATER. WILL AWAIT
ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE ADJUSTING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST MONDAY EVENING
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM. EXPECT THAT IF MVFR CIGS DO DEVELOP THEY
WON`T FORM AROUND SF BAY UNTIL AFTER THE EVENING RUSH AT ABOUT
08Z. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVE HIGH REGARDING LOW
CIGS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH MONDAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AROUND 08Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 21G27 KT BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND VEERING A
BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY TO
23G30KT BY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AROUND 04Z. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. A ROUGH BAR ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE BAYS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211755
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:01 AM PDT MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BAND IS
APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH BAY. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
RETURNS WITH MOISTURE IN THE HIGH CLOUDS BUT THERE IS A DEEP AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF ORGANIZED CLOUDS ABOUT 200 MILES
OFFSHORE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH SOME COLD
AIR CUMULUS NOTED ON SATELLITE OUT BEYOND 130W. ITS THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS THAT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND
ALONG THE COAST BUT QPF NUMBERS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OFFICIAL RFC
DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH
IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS. NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH ANY
SHOWERS ENDING BY ABOUT 15Z TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACT FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

DRYING TREND FOR THE DAY TUESDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN GENERAL. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS WITH A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CREATING RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES CONDUCIVE TO GOOD MIXING. UPSHOT IS FOR COOL AND BREEZY
WEATHER NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME FAIRLY COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 40S DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS BY SUNRISE WEDS.

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THE
GEM AND GFS MODELS REMAIN BULLISH IN DROPPING A COLD AND WET
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAY AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AS WELL BUT NOT NEARLY AS WET WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND LESS OVER-WATER. WILL AWAIT
ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE ADJUSTING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST MONDAY EVENING
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM. EXPECT THAT IF MVFR CIGS DO DEVELOP THEY
WON`T FORM AROUND SF BAY UNTIL AFTER THE EVENING RUSH AT ABOUT
08Z. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVE HIGH REGARDING LOW
CIGS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM N TO S. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH MONDAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AROUND 08Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 21G27 KT BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND VEERING A
BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY TO
23G30KT BY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AROUND 04Z. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. A ROUGH BAR ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE BAYS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:01 AM PDT MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BAND IS
APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH BAY. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
RETURNS WITH MOISTURE IN THE HIGH CLOUDS BUT THERE IS A DEEP AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF ORGANIZED CLOUDS ABOUT 200 MILES
OFFSHORE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH SOME COLD
AIR CUMULUS NOTED ON SATELLITE OUT BEYOND 130W. ITS THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS THAT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND
ALONG THE COAST BUT QPF NUMBERS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OFFICIAL RFC
DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH
IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS. NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH ANY
SHOWERS ENDING BY ABOUT 15Z TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACT FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

DRYING TREND FOR THE DAY TUESDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN GENERAL. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS WITH A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CREATING RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES CONDUCIVE TO GOOD MIXING. UPSHOT IS FOR COOL AND BREEZY
WEATHER NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME FAIRLY COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 40S DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS BY SUNRISE WEDS.

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THE
GEM AND GFS MODELS REMAIN BULLISH IN DROPPING A COLD AND WET
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAY AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AS WELL BUT NOT NEARLY AS WET WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND LESS OVER-WATER. WILL AWAIT
ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE ADJUSTING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR. SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDINESS INCREASES
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST SWELL ARE DECREASING
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
SWELL PERIODS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 13 SECONDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

A ROUGH BAR ADVISORY DOES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
NW WINDS OVER THE BAY WATERS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:01 AM PDT MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BAND IS
APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH BAY. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
RETURNS WITH MOISTURE IN THE HIGH CLOUDS BUT THERE IS A DEEP AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF ORGANIZED CLOUDS ABOUT 200 MILES
OFFSHORE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH SOME COLD
AIR CUMULUS NOTED ON SATELLITE OUT BEYOND 130W. ITS THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS THAT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND
ALONG THE COAST BUT QPF NUMBERS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. OFFICIAL RFC
DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO WITH PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH
IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS. NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH ANY
SHOWERS ENDING BY ABOUT 15Z TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACT FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

DRYING TREND FOR THE DAY TUESDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN GENERAL. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS WITH A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CREATING RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES CONDUCIVE TO GOOD MIXING. UPSHOT IS FOR COOL AND BREEZY
WEATHER NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME FAIRLY COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 40S DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS BY SUNRISE WEDS.

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THE
GEM AND GFS MODELS REMAIN BULLISH IN DROPPING A COLD AND WET
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAY AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AS WELL BUT NOT NEARLY AS WET WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND LESS OVER-WATER. WILL AWAIT
ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE ADJUSTING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR. SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDINESS INCREASES
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST SWELL ARE DECREASING
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
SWELL PERIODS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 13 SECONDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

A ROUGH BAR ADVISORY DOES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
NW WINDS OVER THE BAY WATERS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211153
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE BY THE
END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK
MARINE LAYER PRESENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING IN AND
COOLING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE WARM CONDITIONS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS TODAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIKELY
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTH BAY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VERY
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS MAY ONLY PICK UP TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL FROM THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN FILTER INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND -- THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE
TO SHOW A MUCH DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
IMPACTING THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND KEEPS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES STAYING TO OUR NORTH. UNTIL MODEL CONSISTENCY
IMPROVES...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS RIDING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR. SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDINESS INCREASES
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST SWELL ARE DECREASING
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
SWELL PERIODS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 13 SECONDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

A ROUGH BAR ADVISORY DOES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
NW WINDS OVER THE BAY WATERS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...EXPIRES AT 5 AM PDT THIS MORNING
  SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211153
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE BY THE
END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK
MARINE LAYER PRESENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING IN AND
COOLING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE WARM CONDITIONS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS TODAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIKELY
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTH BAY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VERY
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS MAY ONLY PICK UP TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL FROM THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN FILTER INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND -- THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE
TO SHOW A MUCH DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
IMPACTING THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND KEEPS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES STAYING TO OUR NORTH. UNTIL MODEL CONSISTENCY
IMPROVES...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS RIDING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR. SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDINESS INCREASES
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST SWELL ARE DECREASING
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
SWELL PERIODS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 13 SECONDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

A ROUGH BAR ADVISORY DOES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
NW WINDS OVER THE BAY WATERS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...EXPIRES AT 5 AM PDT THIS MORNING
  SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211149
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
449 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE BY THE
END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK
MARINE LAYER PRESENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING IN AND
COOLING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE WARM CONDITIONS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS TODAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIKELY
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTH BAY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VERY
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS MAY ONLY PICK UP TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL FROM THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN FILTER INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND -- THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE
TO SHOW A MUCH DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
IMPACTING THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND KEEPS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES STAYING TO OUR NORTH. UNTIL MODEL CONSISTENCY
IMPROVES...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS RIDING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR. SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDINESS INCREASES
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL HAS ARRIVED
WITH BUOYS REPORTING WAVES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 16 FEET WITH 15-16
SECOND INTERVAL. WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
AROUND 13 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...EXPIRES AT 5 AM PDT THIS MORNING
  SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211123
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
423 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE BY THE
END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK
MARINE LAYER PRESENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING IN AND
COOLING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE WARM CONDITIONS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS TODAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIKELY
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTH BAY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VERY
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS MAY ONLY PICK UP TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL FROM THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN FILTER INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND -- THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE
TO SHOW A MUCH DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
IMPACTING THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND KEEPS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES STAYING TO OUR NORTH. UNTIL MODEL CONSISTENCY
IMPROVES...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS RIDING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING. INVERSION LAYER WILL ALLOW PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MRY BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL HAS ARRIVED
WITH BUOYS REPORTING WAVES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 16 FEET WITH 15-16
SECOND INTERVAL. WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
AROUND 13 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211123
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
423 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE BY THE
END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK
MARINE LAYER PRESENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING IN AND
COOLING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE WARM CONDITIONS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS TODAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIKELY
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTH BAY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VERY
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS MAY ONLY PICK UP TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL FROM THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN FILTER INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND -- THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE
TO SHOW A MUCH DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
IMPACTING THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND KEEPS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES STAYING TO OUR NORTH. UNTIL MODEL CONSISTENCY
IMPROVES...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS RIDING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING. INVERSION LAYER WILL ALLOW PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MRY BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL HAS ARRIVED
WITH BUOYS REPORTING WAVES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 16 FEET WITH 15-16
SECOND INTERVAL. WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
AROUND 13 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210520
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1020 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN AT THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES MOVED
SHARPLY HIGHER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE AND REDUCED ONSHORE FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND 80S. ONLY AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
REMAINED IN THE 60S. HIGHS TODAY WERE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH VIRTUALLY NO COASTAL
STRATUS. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND
THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT A MARINE INVERSION HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AT ABOUT 1000 FEET. SO...LOOK FOR AREAS OF COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE LOCALLY INLAND LATE.
IN ADDITION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAINFALL FROM THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...MAINLY ON MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST. BASED ON LATEST
NAM...EURO...AND CANADIAN MODELS...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE BIG SUR COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES INLAND. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH...AT MOST...IN THE NORTH BAY WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

COOLING WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN
ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...BUT SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM STILL. MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD COOLING WILL OCCUR BY TUESDAY AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...TUESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY
DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP. GRADUAL WARMING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH
THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
MODELS ALL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY VARIES...WITH THE GFS BEING
THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING A SECOND SYSTEM THAT COMES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF SWEEPS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS CONFINE WARM
ADVECTION RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING
IN AN UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET WET WITH THAT
FIRST SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING. INVERSION LAYER WILL ALLOW PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MRY BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL HAS ARRIVED
WITH BUOYS REPORTING WAVES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 16 FEET WITH 15-16
SECOND INTERVAL. WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
AROUND 13 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210401
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN AT THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES MOVED
SHARPLY HIGHER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE AND REDUCED ONSHORE FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND 80S. ONLY AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
REMAINED IN THE 60S. HIGHS TODAY WERE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH VIRTUALLY NO COASTAL
STRATUS. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND
THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT A MARINE INVERSION HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AT ABOUT 1000 FEET. SO...LOOK FOR AREAS OF COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE LOCALLY INLAND LATE.
IN ADDITION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAINFALL FROM THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...MAINLY ON MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST. BASED ON LATEST
NAM...EURO...AND CANADIAN MODELS...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE BIG SUR COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES INLAND. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH...AT MOST...IN THE NORTH BAY WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

COOLING WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN
ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...BUT SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM STILL. MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD COOLING WILL OCCUR BY TUESDAY AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...TUESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY
DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP. GRADUAL WARMING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH
THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
MODELS ALL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY VARIES...WITH THE GFS BEING
THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING A SECOND SYSTEM THAT COMES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF SWEEPS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS CONFINE WARM
ADVECTION RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING
IN AN UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET WET WITH THAT
FIRST SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SFO BAY AREA VFR
TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP IN MRY BAY LATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL HAS ARRIVED
WITH BUOYS REPORTING WAVES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 16 FEET WITH 15-16
SECOND INTERVAL. WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
AROUND 13 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210401
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN AT THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES MOVED
SHARPLY HIGHER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE AND REDUCED ONSHORE FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND 80S. ONLY AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
REMAINED IN THE 60S. HIGHS TODAY WERE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH VIRTUALLY NO COASTAL
STRATUS. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND
THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT A MARINE INVERSION HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AT ABOUT 1000 FEET. SO...LOOK FOR AREAS OF COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE LOCALLY INLAND LATE.
IN ADDITION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAINFALL FROM THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...MAINLY ON MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST. BASED ON LATEST
NAM...EURO...AND CANADIAN MODELS...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE BIG SUR COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES INLAND. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH...AT MOST...IN THE NORTH BAY WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

COOLING WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN
ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...BUT SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM STILL. MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD COOLING WILL OCCUR BY TUESDAY AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...TUESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY
DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP. GRADUAL WARMING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH
THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
MODELS ALL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY VARIES...WITH THE GFS BEING
THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING A SECOND SYSTEM THAT COMES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF SWEEPS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS CONFINE WARM
ADVECTION RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING
IN AN UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET WET WITH THAT
FIRST SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SFO BAY AREA VFR
TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP IN MRY BAY LATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL HAS ARRIVED
WITH BUOYS REPORTING WAVES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 16 FEET WITH 15-16
SECOND INTERVAL. WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
AROUND 13 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 202340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS. DRY WEATHER
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER AT THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED FROM THE COAST
AND JUST A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF CIRRUS WHISK THROUGH. THE ONSHORE
SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS A FAIR BIT WEAKER TODAY AT 1.2 MB OVER
YESTERDAYS 3.8. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE WARMING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS MAKING FOR A FAIRLY NICE SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS UP TO 73 DEGREES AT THIS
HOUR...THE FIRST IT HAS BEEN OVER 70 IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS VISIBLE AS A WELL DEFINED LINE OF
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF 130W. AS THE TROUGH GETS
CLOSER TOMORROW TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST REMAINS MILD. MODELS CONSISTENTLY
SHOW ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS STORM BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO
STAY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN PARTS OF SONOMA COUNTY AND ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH BAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS DRAGGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND TO
MID 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER STORM INTO THE AREA AT
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE HAVING
A DEEP TROUGH WITH RAIN STARTING FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING AND A
SECOND STORM SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SLOWER IN TIMING. THE LATEST 12Z RUN DOES
CATCH UP THE TIMING MORE SHOWING RAIN STARTING SOME TIME ON
FRIDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF INCH HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
REMAINS HIGH. ANOTHER STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY HOWEVER DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR DUE TO DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SFO BAY AREA VFR
TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP IN MRY BAY LATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL HAS ARRIVED
WITH BUOYS REPORTING WAVES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 16 FEET WITH 15-16
SECOND INTERVAL. WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
AROUND 13 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
                                  UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 202340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS. DRY WEATHER
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER AT THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED FROM THE COAST
AND JUST A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF CIRRUS WHISK THROUGH. THE ONSHORE
SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS A FAIR BIT WEAKER TODAY AT 1.2 MB OVER
YESTERDAYS 3.8. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE WARMING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS MAKING FOR A FAIRLY NICE SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS UP TO 73 DEGREES AT THIS
HOUR...THE FIRST IT HAS BEEN OVER 70 IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS VISIBLE AS A WELL DEFINED LINE OF
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF 130W. AS THE TROUGH GETS
CLOSER TOMORROW TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST REMAINS MILD. MODELS CONSISTENTLY
SHOW ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS STORM BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO
STAY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN PARTS OF SONOMA COUNTY AND ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH BAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS DRAGGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND TO
MID 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER STORM INTO THE AREA AT
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE HAVING
A DEEP TROUGH WITH RAIN STARTING FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING AND A
SECOND STORM SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SLOWER IN TIMING. THE LATEST 12Z RUN DOES
CATCH UP THE TIMING MORE SHOWING RAIN STARTING SOME TIME ON
FRIDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF INCH HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
REMAINS HIGH. ANOTHER STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY HOWEVER DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR DUE TO DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SFO BAY AREA VFR
TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP IN MRY BAY LATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL HAS ARRIVED
WITH BUOYS REPORTING WAVES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 16 FEET WITH 15-16
SECOND INTERVAL. WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
AROUND 13 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
                                  UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






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