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000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS. DRY WEATHER
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER AT THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED FROM THE COAST
AND JUST A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF CIRRUS WHISK THROUGH. THE ONSHORE
SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS A FAIR BIT WEAKER TODAY AT 1.2 MB OVER
YESTERDAYS 3.8. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE WARMING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS MAKING FOR A FAIRLY NICE SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS UP TO 73 DEGREES AT THIS
HOUR...THE FIRST IT HAS BEEN OVER 70 IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS VISIBLE AS A WELL DEFINED LINE OF
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF 130W. AS THE TROUGH GETS
CLOSER TOMORROW TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST REMAINS MILD. MODELS CONSISTENTLY
SHOW ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS STORM BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO
STAY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN PARTS OF SONOMA COUNTY AND ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH BAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS DRAGGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND TO
MID 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER STORM INTO THE AREA AT
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE HAVING
A DEEP TROUGH WITH RAIN STARTING FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING AND A
SECOND STORM SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SLOWER IN TIMING. THE LATEST 12Z RUN DOES
CATCH UP THE TIMING MORE SHOWING RAIN STARTING SOME TIME ON
FRIDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF INCH HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
REMAINS HIGH. ANOTHER STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY HOWEVER DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR DUE TO DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED TO JUST OFF THE MONTEREY BAY...AND
WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING IN THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MARINE LAYER INVERSION DEPTH MAY SUPPORT
SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
REACH 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND SWELL PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 202138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS. DRY WEATHER
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER AT THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED FROM THE COAST
AND JUST A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF CIRRUS WHISK THROUGH. THE ONSHORE
SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS A FAIR BIT WEAKER TODAY AT 1.2 MB OVER
YESTERDAYS 3.8. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE WARMING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS MAKING FOR A FAIRLY NICE SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS UP TO 73 DEGREES AT THIS
HOUR...THE FIRST IT HAS BEEN OVER 70 IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS VISIBLE AS A WELL DEFINED LINE OF
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF 130W. AS THE TROUGH GETS
CLOSER TOMORROW TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST REMAINS MILD. MODELS CONSISTENTLY
SHOW ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS STORM BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO
STAY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN PARTS OF SONOMA COUNTY AND ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH BAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS DRAGGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND TO
MID 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER STORM INTO THE AREA AT
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
TIMING AND IMPACTS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE HAVING
A DEEP TROUGH WITH RAIN STARTING FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING AND A
SECOND STORM SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SLOWER IN TIMING. THE LATEST 12Z RUN DOES
CATCH UP THE TIMING MORE SHOWING RAIN STARTING SOME TIME ON
FRIDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF INCH HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
REMAINS HIGH. ANOTHER STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY HOWEVER DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR DUE TO DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED TO JUST OFF THE MONTEREY BAY...AND
WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING IN THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MARINE LAYER INVERSION DEPTH MAY SUPPORT
SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
REACH 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND SWELL PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 201735
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1035 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY STRATUS THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO MONTEREY BAY AND THE SALINAS VALLEY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BAY AREA. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SFO-SAC ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS A MEAGER HALF MILLIBAR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE FOR WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS MOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MINOR GRID UPDATES WERE MADE FOR CLOUD
COVER...FOG...AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
MARINE LAYER HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN DEPLETED. AS A RESULT...STRATUS
ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS, ALONG WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN COOL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S REGION WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL RESUME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND GEM DROP A DEEPER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL MODEL
CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED TO JUST OFF THE MONTEREY BAY...AND
WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING IN THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MARINE LAYER INVERSION DEPTH MAY SUPPORT
SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
REACH 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND SWELL PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA TO MONTEREY COUNTIES
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 201735
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1035 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY STRATUS THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO MONTEREY BAY AND THE SALINAS VALLEY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BAY AREA. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SFO-SAC ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS A MEAGER HALF MILLIBAR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE FOR WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS MOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MINOR GRID UPDATES WERE MADE FOR CLOUD
COVER...FOG...AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
MARINE LAYER HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN DEPLETED. AS A RESULT...STRATUS
ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS, ALONG WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN COOL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S REGION WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL RESUME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND GEM DROP A DEEPER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL MODEL
CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED TO JUST OFF THE MONTEREY BAY...AND
WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING IN THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MARINE LAYER INVERSION DEPTH MAY SUPPORT
SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:35 AM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
REACH 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND SWELL PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA TO MONTEREY COUNTIES
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 201547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
847 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY STRATUS THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO MONTEREY BAY AND THE SALINAS VALLEY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BAY AREA. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SFO-SAC ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS A MEAGER HALF MILLIBAR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE FOR WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS MOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MINOR GRID UPDATES WERE MADE FOR CLOUD
COVER...FOG...AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
MARINE LAYER HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN DEPLETED. AS A RESULT...STRATUS
ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS, ALONG WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN COOL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S REGION WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL RESUME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND GEM DROP A DEEPER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL MODEL
CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH TO THE
MONTEREY PENINSULA. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE REPORTED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND SKIES ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH
EXCEPTION OF KSTS REPORTING OCCASIONAL 2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE 500 MB HEIGHT
RIDGE STRENGTHENS JUST A LITTLE MORE BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO TREND
TO THE DOWNSIDE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WILL TEND TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP REINFORCE THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS. ALL OF THIS MEANS THERE`S GOOD CHANCES THE
MARINE BASED CLOUDS WILL TEND TO STAY ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
TODAY...BETTERING THE ODDS THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BAY
AREA TODAY. BY TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES LOWER APPRECIABLY
BUT IT`S STILL POSSIBLE THAT KMRY AND KSNS PICK UP SCT-BKN (IFR)
CLOUD COVERAGE UNDER A MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MARINE LAYER INVERSION DEPTH MAY SUPPORT
SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CEILINGS ARE REPORTED THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
THIS EVENING REGARDING LOW CLOUDS RETURNING. THERE`S DECENT LOW
LEVEL 925 MB LEVEL DRYING NOTED ON THE NAM MODEL. IF LOW CLOUDS
RETURN THIS EVENING THEY MAY JUST BE AROUND BRIEFLY BEFORE
REVERTING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
REACH 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND SWELL PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA TO MONTEREY COUNTIES
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 201547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
847 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY STRATUS THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO MONTEREY BAY AND THE SALINAS VALLEY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BAY AREA. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SFO-SAC ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS A MEAGER HALF MILLIBAR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE FOR WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS MOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MINOR GRID UPDATES WERE MADE FOR CLOUD
COVER...FOG...AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
MARINE LAYER HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN DEPLETED. AS A RESULT...STRATUS
ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS, ALONG WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN COOL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S REGION WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL RESUME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND GEM DROP A DEEPER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL MODEL
CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH TO THE
MONTEREY PENINSULA. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE REPORTED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND SKIES ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH
EXCEPTION OF KSTS REPORTING OCCASIONAL 2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE 500 MB HEIGHT
RIDGE STRENGTHENS JUST A LITTLE MORE BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO TREND
TO THE DOWNSIDE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WILL TEND TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP REINFORCE THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS. ALL OF THIS MEANS THERE`S GOOD CHANCES THE
MARINE BASED CLOUDS WILL TEND TO STAY ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
TODAY...BETTERING THE ODDS THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BAY
AREA TODAY. BY TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES LOWER APPRECIABLY
BUT IT`S STILL POSSIBLE THAT KMRY AND KSNS PICK UP SCT-BKN (IFR)
CLOUD COVERAGE UNDER A MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MARINE LAYER INVERSION DEPTH MAY SUPPORT
SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CEILINGS ARE REPORTED THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
THIS EVENING REGARDING LOW CLOUDS RETURNING. THERE`S DECENT LOW
LEVEL 925 MB LEVEL DRYING NOTED ON THE NAM MODEL. IF LOW CLOUDS
RETURN THIS EVENING THEY MAY JUST BE AROUND BRIEFLY BEFORE
REVERTING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
REACH 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND SWELL PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA TO MONTEREY COUNTIES
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 201153
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
MARINE LAYER HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN DEPLETED. AS A RESULT...STRATUS
ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS, ALONG WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN COOL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S REGION WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL RESUME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND GEM DROP A DEEPER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL MODEL
CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH TO THE
MONTEREY PENINSULA. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE REPORTED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND SKIES ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH
EXCEPTION OF KSTS REPORTING OCCASIONAL 2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE 500 MB HEIGHT
RIDGE STRENGTHENS JUST A LITTLE MORE BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO TREND
TO THE DOWNSIDE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WILL TEND TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP REINFORCE THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS. ALL OF THIS MEANS THERE`S GOOD CHANCES THE
MARINE BASED CLOUDS WILL TEND TO STAY ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
TODAY...BETTERING THE ODDS THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BAY
AREA TODAY. BY TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES LOWER APPRECIABLY
BUT IT`S STILL POSSIBLE THAT KMRY AND KSNS PICK UP SCT-BKN (IFR)
CLOUD COVERAGE UNDER A MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MARINE LAYER INVERSION DEPTH MAY SUPPORT
SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CEILINGS ARE REPORTED THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
THIS EVENING REGARDING LOW CLOUDS RETURNING. THERE`S DECENT LOW
LEVEL 925 MB LEVEL DRYING NOTED ON THE NAM MODEL. IF LOW CLOUDS
RETURN THIS EVENING THEY MAY JUST BE AROUND BRIEFLY BEFORE
REVERTING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
REACH 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND SWELL PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY TO MONTEREY COUNTY
UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY MORNING
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 201153
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
MARINE LAYER HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN DEPLETED. AS A RESULT...STRATUS
ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS, ALONG WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN COOL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S REGION WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL RESUME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND GEM DROP A DEEPER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL MODEL
CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH TO THE
MONTEREY PENINSULA. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE REPORTED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND SKIES ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH
EXCEPTION OF KSTS REPORTING OCCASIONAL 2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE 500 MB HEIGHT
RIDGE STRENGTHENS JUST A LITTLE MORE BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO TREND
TO THE DOWNSIDE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WILL TEND TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP REINFORCE THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS. ALL OF THIS MEANS THERE`S GOOD CHANCES THE
MARINE BASED CLOUDS WILL TEND TO STAY ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
TODAY...BETTERING THE ODDS THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BAY
AREA TODAY. BY TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES LOWER APPRECIABLY
BUT IT`S STILL POSSIBLE THAT KMRY AND KSNS PICK UP SCT-BKN (IFR)
CLOUD COVERAGE UNDER A MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MARINE LAYER INVERSION DEPTH MAY SUPPORT
SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CEILINGS ARE REPORTED THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
THIS EVENING REGARDING LOW CLOUDS RETURNING. THERE`S DECENT LOW
LEVEL 925 MB LEVEL DRYING NOTED ON THE NAM MODEL. IF LOW CLOUDS
RETURN THIS EVENING THEY MAY JUST BE AROUND BRIEFLY BEFORE
REVERTING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...LARGE NW SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
REACH 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND SWELL PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY TO MONTEREY COUNTY
UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY MORNING
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 201050
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
350 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
MARINE LAYER HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN DEPLETED. AS A RESULT...STRATUS
ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS, ALONG WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN COOL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S REGION WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL RESUME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND GEM DROP A DEEPER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL MODEL
CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN THE COMING DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS
SPREAD LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOW CLEARING JUST NW OF THE SFO BAY.
SFO HAS CLEARED OUT WHILE CIGS CONTINUE OVER THE EAST BAY.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY 08Z. TRICKIER FORECAST FOR THE MRY
BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT AND LESS IMPACT FROM
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LARGER SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH NORTHWEST SWELL
REACHING 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 201050
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
350 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
MARINE LAYER HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN DEPLETED. AS A RESULT...STRATUS
ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST WILL LIKELY BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS, ALONG WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN COOL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON MONDAY WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S REGION WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL RESUME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND GEM DROP A DEEPER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL MODEL
CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN THE COMING DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS
SPREAD LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOW CLEARING JUST NW OF THE SFO BAY.
SFO HAS CLEARED OUT WHILE CIGS CONTINUE OVER THE EAST BAY.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY 08Z. TRICKIER FORECAST FOR THE MRY
BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT AND LESS IMPACT FROM
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LARGER SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH NORTHWEST SWELL
REACHING 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 200537
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1037 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...BRISK ONSHORE WINDS
HELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL INLAND.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND
AROUND SF BAY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND WRF SHOW LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID CLEARING OF
LOW CLOUDS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE UNDER A
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL WARM THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB CLOSE TO
15 DEG C. THE END RESULT WILL BE WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING AT LEAST FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN
COOLER ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON
SATELLITE OUT NEAR 140W...APPROACHES THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RAMP UP ON MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

THE INCOMING SYSTEM LOOKS REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE AT
THE PRESENT TIME...BUT THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHORT ON MOISTURE AND PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GEM MODELS ARE BOTH SOMEWHAT WETTER THAN THE NAM AND
GFS AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THEIR 00Z RUNS MAINTAIN
THIS WETTER SOLUTION. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...THIS WETTER
SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT. BUT EVEN IF THE WETTER EURO/GEM SOLUTIONS
WERE TO VERIFY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
LIGHT.

THE COOLING TREND THAT WILL GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AS LOW AS
2 DEG C. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT WET WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE SPECIFICS ARE STILL
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE AND THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO TIMING
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO AT LEAST A
REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LATE SEASON RAINFALL BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS
SPREAD LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOW CLEARING JUST NW OF THE SFO BAY.
SFO HAS CLEARED OUT WHILE CIGS CONTINUE OVER THE EAST BAY.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY 08Z. TRICKIER FORECAST FOR THE MRY
BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT AND LESS IMPACT FROM
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LARGER SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH NORTHWEST SWELL
REACHING 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY STARTING AT 5 AM PDT
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 200537
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1037 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...BRISK ONSHORE WINDS
HELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL INLAND.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND
AROUND SF BAY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND WRF SHOW LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID CLEARING OF
LOW CLOUDS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE UNDER A
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL WARM THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB CLOSE TO
15 DEG C. THE END RESULT WILL BE WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING AT LEAST FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN
COOLER ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON
SATELLITE OUT NEAR 140W...APPROACHES THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RAMP UP ON MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

THE INCOMING SYSTEM LOOKS REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE AT
THE PRESENT TIME...BUT THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHORT ON MOISTURE AND PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GEM MODELS ARE BOTH SOMEWHAT WETTER THAN THE NAM AND
GFS AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THEIR 00Z RUNS MAINTAIN
THIS WETTER SOLUTION. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...THIS WETTER
SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT. BUT EVEN IF THE WETTER EURO/GEM SOLUTIONS
WERE TO VERIFY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
LIGHT.

THE COOLING TREND THAT WILL GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AS LOW AS
2 DEG C. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT WET WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE SPECIFICS ARE STILL
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE AND THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO TIMING
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO AT LEAST A
REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LATE SEASON RAINFALL BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS
SPREAD LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOW CLEARING JUST NW OF THE SFO BAY.
SFO HAS CLEARED OUT WHILE CIGS CONTINUE OVER THE EAST BAY.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY 08Z. TRICKIER FORECAST FOR THE MRY
BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT AND LESS IMPACT FROM
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LARGER SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH NORTHWEST SWELL
REACHING 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY STARTING AT 5 AM PDT
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 200355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...BRISK ONSHORE WINDS
HELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL INLAND.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND
AROUND SF BAY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND WRF SHOW LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID CLEARING OF
LOW CLOUDS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE UNDER A
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL WARM THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB CLOSE TO
15 DEG C. THE END RESULT WILL BE WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING AT LEAST FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN
COOLER ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON
SATELLITE OUT NEAR 140W...APPROACHES THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RAMP UP ON MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

THE INCOMING SYSTEM LOOKS REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE AT
THE PRESENT TIME...BUT THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHORT ON MOISTURE AND PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GEM MODELS ARE BOTH SOMEWHAT WETTER THAN THE NAM AND
GFS AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THEIR 00Z RUNS MAINTAIN
THIS WETTER SOLUTION. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...THIS WETTER
SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT. BUT EVEN IF THE WETTER EURO/GEM SOLUTIONS
WERE TO VERIFY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
LIGHT.

THE COOLING TREND THAT WILL GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AS LOW AS
2 DEG C. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT WET WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE SPECIFICS ARE STILL
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE AND THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO TIMING
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO AT LEAST A
REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LATE SEASON RAINFALL BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS HAS BROUGHT LOW CIGS TO THE NORTHERN SFO BAY AREA.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR UP AND BECOME VFR AFTER
06Z AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE. TRICKIER
FORECAST FOR THE MRY BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
AND LESS IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z. VFR AFTER 06Z UNDER
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LARGER SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH NORTHWEST SWELL
REACHING 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY STARTING AT 5 AM PDT
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 200355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...BRISK ONSHORE WINDS
HELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL INLAND.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND
AROUND SF BAY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND WRF SHOW LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID CLEARING OF
LOW CLOUDS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE UNDER A
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL WARM THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB CLOSE TO
15 DEG C. THE END RESULT WILL BE WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING AT LEAST FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN
COOLER ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON
SATELLITE OUT NEAR 140W...APPROACHES THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RAMP UP ON MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

THE INCOMING SYSTEM LOOKS REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE AT
THE PRESENT TIME...BUT THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHORT ON MOISTURE AND PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GEM MODELS ARE BOTH SOMEWHAT WETTER THAN THE NAM AND
GFS AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THEIR 00Z RUNS MAINTAIN
THIS WETTER SOLUTION. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...THIS WETTER
SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT. BUT EVEN IF THE WETTER EURO/GEM SOLUTIONS
WERE TO VERIFY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
LIGHT.

THE COOLING TREND THAT WILL GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AS LOW AS
2 DEG C. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT WET WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE SPECIFICS ARE STILL
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE AND THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO TIMING
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO AT LEAST A
REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LATE SEASON RAINFALL BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS HAS BROUGHT LOW CIGS TO THE NORTHERN SFO BAY AREA.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR UP AND BECOME VFR AFTER
06Z AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE. TRICKIER
FORECAST FOR THE MRY BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
AND LESS IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z. VFR AFTER 06Z UNDER
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LARGER SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH NORTHWEST SWELL
REACHING 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY STARTING AT 5 AM PDT
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 200254
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
754 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE COAST NORTH OF POINT
ARENA AT THIS HOUR HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL KEEP ALL BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS AND DECREASING THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD 70S
AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON TO UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE
THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS BARELY ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE REDUCED QPF
IN AGREEMENT WITH CNRFC TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TOTAL AT MOST.
TEMPERATURES COOL QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN AN END OF THE WEEK
STORM HAVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE OVER
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER A TENTH OF INCH OF RAIN IN SAN
FRANCISCO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS HAS BROUGHT LOW CIGS TO THE NORTHERN SFO BAY AREA.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR UP AND BECOME VFR AFTER
06Z AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE. TRICKIER
FORECAST FOR THE MRY BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
AND LESS IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z. VFR AFTER 06Z UNDER
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LARGER SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH NORTHWEST SWELL
REACHING 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 200254
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
754 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE COAST NORTH OF POINT
ARENA AT THIS HOUR HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL KEEP ALL BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS AND DECREASING THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD 70S
AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON TO UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE
THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS BARELY ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE REDUCED QPF
IN AGREEMENT WITH CNRFC TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TOTAL AT MOST.
TEMPERATURES COOL QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN AN END OF THE WEEK
STORM HAVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE OVER
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER A TENTH OF INCH OF RAIN IN SAN
FRANCISCO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS HAS BROUGHT LOW CIGS TO THE NORTHERN SFO BAY AREA.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR UP AND BECOME VFR AFTER
06Z AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE. TRICKIER
FORECAST FOR THE MRY BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
AND LESS IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z. VFR AFTER 06Z UNDER
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...LARGER SWELL WITH LONGER
PERIODS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH NORTHWEST SWELL
REACHING 13 TO 15 FEET WITH A 16 SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 192358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE COAST NORTH OF POINT
ARENA AT THIS HOUR HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL KEEP ALL BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS AND DECREASING THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD 70S
AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON TO UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE
THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS BARELY ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE REDUCED QPF
IN AGREEMENT WITH CNRFC TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TOTAL AT MOST.
TEMPERATURES COOL QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN AN END OF THE WEEK
STORM HAVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE OVER
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER A TENTH OF INCH OF RAIN IN SAN
FRANCISCO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS HAS BROUGHT SOME LOW CIGS TO THE COAST WITH SOME OF IT
GETITING INTO SFO. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR UP
AND BECOME VFR AFTER 04Z AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. TRICKIER FORECAST FOR THE MRY BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT AND LESS IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 04Z. VFR AFTER 04Z
UNDER DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MRY AFTER 01Z AND SNS
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 192358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE COAST NORTH OF POINT
ARENA AT THIS HOUR HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL KEEP ALL BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS AND DECREASING THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD 70S
AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON TO UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE
THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS BARELY ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE REDUCED QPF
IN AGREEMENT WITH CNRFC TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TOTAL AT MOST.
TEMPERATURES COOL QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN AN END OF THE WEEK
STORM HAVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE OVER
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER A TENTH OF INCH OF RAIN IN SAN
FRANCISCO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS HAS BROUGHT SOME LOW CIGS TO THE COAST WITH SOME OF IT
GETITING INTO SFO. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR UP
AND BECOME VFR AFTER 04Z AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. TRICKIER FORECAST FOR THE MRY BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT AND LESS IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 04Z. VFR AFTER 04Z
UNDER DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MRY AFTER 01Z AND SNS
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 192136
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
236 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE COAST NORTH OF POINT
ARENA AT THIS HOUR HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL KEEP ALL BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS AND DECREASING THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD 70S
AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON TO UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE
THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS BARELY ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE REDUCED QPF
IN AGREEMENT WITH CNRFC TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TOTAL AT MOST.
TEMPERATURES COOL QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN AN END OF THE WEEK
STORM HAVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE OVER
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER A TENTH OF INCH OF RAIN IN SAN
FRANCISCO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM ALL TERMINAL SITES. THERE ARE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME...AND LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-28
KNOTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA











000
FXUS66 KMTR 192136
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
236 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE COAST NORTH OF POINT
ARENA AT THIS HOUR HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL KEEP ALL BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS AND DECREASING THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD 70S
AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON TO UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE
THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS BARELY ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE REDUCED QPF
IN AGREEMENT WITH CNRFC TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TOTAL AT MOST.
TEMPERATURES COOL QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN AN END OF THE WEEK
STORM HAVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE OVER
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER A TENTH OF INCH OF RAIN IN SAN
FRANCISCO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM ALL TERMINAL SITES. THERE ARE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME...AND LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-28
KNOTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 191749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1049 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 AM PDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING UNDER A
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE 2000 FT MARINE LAYER. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THE COAST COOL REGARDLESS WITH THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT FORECAST TO
REACH 3.6 MB THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA DUE TO A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 2000 FT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE. STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH A GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONGER AND
WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM ALL TERMINAL SITES. THERE ARE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME...AND LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-28
KNOTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 191545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 AM PDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING UNDER A
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE 2000 FT MARINE LAYER. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THE COAST COOL REGARDLESS WITH THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT FORECAST TO
REACH 3.6 MB THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA DUE TO A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 2000 FT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE. STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH A GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONGER AND
WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE HOW
MUCH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THERE IS AROUND THE AREA. THE TAF SITES
REPORT CEILINGS EXCEPT FOR KSJC. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE REPORTED DUE TO
A RELATIVELY DEEPER MARINE LAYER NEAR 2000 FEET. KSTS ON THE OTHER
HAND REPORTS IFR.

THE STRATUS CLOUDS FILLED IN MORE SO THAN THE MOST RECENT WRF MODEL
HAD FORECASTED. KSFO FOR INSTANCE MAY BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
CEILINGS AS THE 1 MINUTE OBS BACKED AWAY FROM OVC NOW SHOWING A
BKN CEILING. SAN MATEO BRIDGE REPORTS A BKN CLOUD CEILING. A VERY
WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE AMBITIOUS THIS
MORNING...DRIVEN BY A SFO-SAC GRADIENT AT 3.2 MB. 3.2 MB ONSHORE IS
A FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE DAY. THE NAM
MODEL FORECASTS THIS TO REACH ABOUT 4 MB BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE HELPING WITH SOME MIXING ALREADY SO AN EARLY
CLEARING TO VFR IS POSSIBLE FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS BUT THIS IS A
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MODELS SHOW MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER HUMIDITY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CEILING WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE CEILING TO MIX OUT TO FEW-SCT
BY 15Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-28 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
NO LATER THAN 22Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 191545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 AM PDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING UNDER A
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE 2000 FT MARINE LAYER. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THE COAST COOL REGARDLESS WITH THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT FORECAST TO
REACH 3.6 MB THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA DUE TO A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 2000 FT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE. STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH A GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONGER AND
WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE HOW
MUCH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THERE IS AROUND THE AREA. THE TAF SITES
REPORT CEILINGS EXCEPT FOR KSJC. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE REPORTED DUE TO
A RELATIVELY DEEPER MARINE LAYER NEAR 2000 FEET. KSTS ON THE OTHER
HAND REPORTS IFR.

THE STRATUS CLOUDS FILLED IN MORE SO THAN THE MOST RECENT WRF MODEL
HAD FORECASTED. KSFO FOR INSTANCE MAY BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
CEILINGS AS THE 1 MINUTE OBS BACKED AWAY FROM OVC NOW SHOWING A
BKN CEILING. SAN MATEO BRIDGE REPORTS A BKN CLOUD CEILING. A VERY
WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE AMBITIOUS THIS
MORNING...DRIVEN BY A SFO-SAC GRADIENT AT 3.2 MB. 3.2 MB ONSHORE IS
A FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE DAY. THE NAM
MODEL FORECASTS THIS TO REACH ABOUT 4 MB BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE HELPING WITH SOME MIXING ALREADY SO AN EARLY
CLEARING TO VFR IS POSSIBLE FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS BUT THIS IS A
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MODELS SHOW MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER HUMIDITY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CEILING WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE CEILING TO MIX OUT TO FEW-SCT
BY 15Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-28 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
NO LATER THAN 22Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 191208
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
503 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 2000 FT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE. STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH A GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONGER AND
WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE HOW
MUCH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THERE IS AROUND THE AREA. THE TAF SITES
REPORT CEILINGS EXCEPT FOR KSJC. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE REPORTED DUE TO
A RELATIVELY DEEPER MARINE LAYER NEAR 2000 FEET. KSTS ON THE OTHER
HAND REPORTS IFR.

THE STRATUS CLOUDS FILLED IN MORE SO THAN THE MOST RECENT WRF MODEL
HAD FORECASTED. KSFO FOR INSTANCE MAY BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
CEILINGS AS THE 1 MINUTE OBS BACKED AWAY FROM OVC NOW SHOWING A
BKN CEILING. SAN MATEO BRIDGE REPORTS A BKN CLOUD CEILING. A VERY
WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE AMBITIOUS THIS
MORNING...DRIVEN BY A SFO-SAC GRADIENT AT 3.2 MB. 3.2 MB ONSHORE IS
A FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE DAY. THE NAM
MODEL FORECASTS THIS TO REACH ABOUT 4 MB BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE HELPING WITH SOME MIXING ALREADY SO AN EARLY
CLEARING TO VFR IS POSSIBLE FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS BUT THIS IS A
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MODELS SHOW MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER HUMIDITY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CEILING WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE CEILING TO MIX OUT TO FEW-SCT
BY 15Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-28 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
NO LATER THAN 22Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 191208
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
503 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 2000 FT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE. STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH A GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONGER AND
WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE HOW
MUCH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THERE IS AROUND THE AREA. THE TAF SITES
REPORT CEILINGS EXCEPT FOR KSJC. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE REPORTED DUE TO
A RELATIVELY DEEPER MARINE LAYER NEAR 2000 FEET. KSTS ON THE OTHER
HAND REPORTS IFR.

THE STRATUS CLOUDS FILLED IN MORE SO THAN THE MOST RECENT WRF MODEL
HAD FORECASTED. KSFO FOR INSTANCE MAY BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
CEILINGS AS THE 1 MINUTE OBS BACKED AWAY FROM OVC NOW SHOWING A
BKN CEILING. SAN MATEO BRIDGE REPORTS A BKN CLOUD CEILING. A VERY
WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE AMBITIOUS THIS
MORNING...DRIVEN BY A SFO-SAC GRADIENT AT 3.2 MB. 3.2 MB ONSHORE IS
A FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE DAY. THE NAM
MODEL FORECASTS THIS TO REACH ABOUT 4 MB BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE HELPING WITH SOME MIXING ALREADY SO AN EARLY
CLEARING TO VFR IS POSSIBLE FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS BUT THIS IS A
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MODELS SHOW MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER HUMIDITY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CEILING WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE CEILING TO MIX OUT TO FEW-SCT
BY 15Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-28 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
NO LATER THAN 22Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 191203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
503 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 2000 FT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE. STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH A GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONGER AND
WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE HOW
MUCH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THERE IS AROUND THE AREA. THE TAF SITES
REPORT CEILINGS EXCEPT FOR KSJC. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE REPORTED DUE TO
A RELATIVELY DEEPER MARINE LAYER NEAR 2000 FEET. KSTS ON THE OTHER
HAND REPORTS IFR.

THE STRATUS CLOUDS FILLED IN MORE SO THAN THE MOST RECENT WRF MODEL
HAD FORECASTED. KSFO FOR INSTANCE MAY BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
CEILINGS AS THE 1 MINUTE OBS BACKED AWAY FROM OVC NOW SHOWING A
BKN CEILING. SAN MATEO BRIDGE REPORTS A BKN CLOUD CEILING. A VERY
WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE AMBITIOUS THIS
MORNING...DRIVEN BY A SFO-SAC GRADIENT AT 3.2 MB. 3.2 MB ONSHORE IS
A FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE DAY. THE NAM
MODEL FORECASTS THIS TO REACH ABOUT 4 MB BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE HELPING WITH SOME MIXING ALREADY SO AN EARLY
CLEARING TO VFR IS POSSIBLE FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS BUT THIS IS A
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MODELS SHOW MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER HUMIDITY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CEILING WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE CEILING TO MIX OUT TO FEW-SCT
BY 15Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-28 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
NO LATER THAN 22Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE CA COASTAL. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13
TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO 16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 191203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
503 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 2000 FT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE. STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH A GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONGER AND
WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE HOW
MUCH LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THERE IS AROUND THE AREA. THE TAF SITES
REPORT CEILINGS EXCEPT FOR KSJC. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE REPORTED DUE TO
A RELATIVELY DEEPER MARINE LAYER NEAR 2000 FEET. KSTS ON THE OTHER
HAND REPORTS IFR.

THE STRATUS CLOUDS FILLED IN MORE SO THAN THE MOST RECENT WRF MODEL
HAD FORECASTED. KSFO FOR INSTANCE MAY BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
CEILINGS AS THE 1 MINUTE OBS BACKED AWAY FROM OVC NOW SHOWING A
BKN CEILING. SAN MATEO BRIDGE REPORTS A BKN CLOUD CEILING. A VERY
WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE AMBITIOUS THIS
MORNING...DRIVEN BY A SFO-SAC GRADIENT AT 3.2 MB. 3.2 MB ONSHORE IS
A FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE DAY. THE NAM
MODEL FORECASTS THIS TO REACH ABOUT 4 MB BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE HELPING WITH SOME MIXING ALREADY SO AN EARLY
CLEARING TO VFR IS POSSIBLE FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS BUT THIS IS A
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MODELS SHOW MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER HUMIDITY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CEILING WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE CEILING TO MIX OUT TO FEW-SCT
BY 15Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-28 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
NO LATER THAN 22Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE CA COASTAL. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13
TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO 16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 191140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 2000 FT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE. STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH A GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONGER AND
WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO HAVE
TAKEN A BREAK IN THE MONTEREY AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
SHORTLY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER STILL INDICATES THAT THE MARINE
LAYER IS HANGING TOUGH AT 2000 FEET AND A LOOK OUT OF THE OFFICE
WINDOW ALLOWS US TO SEE STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE BAY. IN SAN
FRANCISCO THE SODARS ARE STILL NOT INDICATING AN INVERSION
SIGNATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THEREFORE...DON`T ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO IMPACT THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TERMINALS ANYTIME SOON IF AT ALL TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT EAST OF THE APPROACH.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SHORTLY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH 1200Z TONIGHT AT WHICH CIGS WILL FALL TO AROUND OVC007.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO OVC015 BY 1700Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS
GENERATED A LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE FORERUNNER
WAVES WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT A HEIGHT OF 5 TO 8 FEET
AND A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS. THE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

THESE LARGE WAVES WILL RESULT IN SHOALING ALONG COASTAL SAND BARS,
REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS. MARINERS AND FISHERMEN PLEASE USE
CAUTION NEAR THESE UNDERWATER FEATURES. AT THE BEACH HIGH SURF IS
EXPECTED AT EXPOSED BEACHES SUCH AS OCEAN BEACH. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEACHES FROM SONOMA TO MONTEREY
ESPECIALLY ON WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. ON STEEPER
BEACHES SUCH AS CARMEL RIVER BEACH AND MONTARA STATE BEACH A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES IS ANTICIPATED. PLEASE DO NOT
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN WHILE VISITING THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...PLEASE DO NOT CLIMB ON OR FISH OFF OF COASTAL ROCKS
AND JETTIES AS YOU WILL RUN AN EXTREME RISK OF BEING WASHED INTO
THE SEA BY A WAVE. THAT DRAMATIC PHOTO OF THE WAVE BREAKING BEHIND
YOU IS JUST NOT WORTH BEING WASHED INTO THE SEA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 191140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:38 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 2000 FT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE. STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH A GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONGER AND
WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO HAVE
TAKEN A BREAK IN THE MONTEREY AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
SHORTLY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER STILL INDICATES THAT THE MARINE
LAYER IS HANGING TOUGH AT 2000 FEET AND A LOOK OUT OF THE OFFICE
WINDOW ALLOWS US TO SEE STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE BAY. IN SAN
FRANCISCO THE SODARS ARE STILL NOT INDICATING AN INVERSION
SIGNATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THEREFORE...DON`T ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO IMPACT THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TERMINALS ANYTIME SOON IF AT ALL TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT EAST OF THE APPROACH.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SHORTLY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH 1200Z TONIGHT AT WHICH CIGS WILL FALL TO AROUND OVC007.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO OVC015 BY 1700Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS
GENERATED A LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE FORERUNNER
WAVES WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT A HEIGHT OF 5 TO 8 FEET
AND A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS. THE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

THESE LARGE WAVES WILL RESULT IN SHOALING ALONG COASTAL SAND BARS,
REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS. MARINERS AND FISHERMEN PLEASE USE
CAUTION NEAR THESE UNDERWATER FEATURES. AT THE BEACH HIGH SURF IS
EXPECTED AT EXPOSED BEACHES SUCH AS OCEAN BEACH. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEACHES FROM SONOMA TO MONTEREY
ESPECIALLY ON WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. ON STEEPER
BEACHES SUCH AS CARMEL RIVER BEACH AND MONTARA STATE BEACH A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES IS ANTICIPATED. PLEASE DO NOT
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN WHILE VISITING THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...PLEASE DO NOT CLIMB ON OR FISH OFF OF COASTAL ROCKS
AND JETTIES AS YOU WILL RUN AN EXTREME RISK OF BEING WASHED INTO
THE SEA BY A WAVE. THAT DRAMATIC PHOTO OF THE WAVE BREAKING BEHIND
YOU IS JUST NOT WORTH BEING WASHED INTO THE SEA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...BUT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BY LATE MONDAY AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS LARGELY CLEARED OUT LATE IN THE DAY
AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRODUCED GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT STRATUS EVOLUTION TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ALONG MUCH
OF THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL WINDS EASE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP INLAND BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE DIFFERENCE
THIS EVENING COMPARED TO LAST EVENING IS A WEAKER N-S SURFACE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD MEAN GREATER INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SF BAY LATE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND PREVENT THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PAC NW FROM IMPACTING OUR AREA IN ANY WAY. THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER A BIT TOMORROW SO
WE MAY SEE SLIGHT WARMING INLAND. BUT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND
MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS NEAR
PERSISTENCE. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND THEN SWING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RELATIVELY ROBUST
WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION FORECAST FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...THE MODELS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE LACKING IN MOISTURE.
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
SO WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS FOR LATE MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED FOR TUESDAY. THERE NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
TOTALS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH. ALSO...MUCH OF OUR AREA MAY NOT PICK
UP ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM A
RELATIVELY STRONG AND WET LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE
NEXT FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FINAL WEEKEND OF APRIL AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO HAVE
TAKEN A BREAK IN THE MONTEREY AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
SHORTLY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER STILL INDICATES THAT THE MARINE
LAYER IS HANGING TOUGH AT 2000 FEET AND A LOOK OUT OF THE OFFICE
WINDOW ALLOWS US TO SEE STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE BAY. IN SAN
FRANCISCO THE SODARS ARE STILL NOT INDICATING AN INVERSION
SIGNATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THEREFORE...DON`T ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO IMPACT THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TERMINALS ANYTIME SOON IF AT ALL TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT EAST OF THE APPROACH.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SHORTLY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH 1200Z TONIGHT AT WHICH CIGS WILL FALL TO AROUND OVC007.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO OVC015 BY 1700Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS
GENERATED A LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE FORERUNNER
WAVES WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT A HEIGHT OF 5 TO 8 FEET
AND A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS. THE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

THESE LARGE WAVES WILL RESULT IN SHOALING ALONG COASTAL SAND BARS,
REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS. MARINERS AND FISHERMEN PLEASE USE
CAUTION NEAR THESE UNDERWATER FEATURES. AT THE BEACH HIGH SURF IS
EXPECTED AT EXPOSED BEACHES SUCH AS OCEAN BEACH. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEACHES FROM SONOMA TO MONTEREY
ESPECIALLY ON WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. ON STEEPER
BEACHES SUCH AS CARMEL RIVER BEACH AND MONTARA STATE BEACH A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES IS ANTICIPATED. PLEASE DO NOT
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN WHILE VISITING THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...PLEASE DO NOT CLIMB ON OR FISH OFF OF COASTAL ROCKS
AND JETTIES AS YOU WILL RUN AN EXTREME RISK OF BEING WASHED INTO
THE SEA BY A WAVE. THAT DRAMATIC PHOTO OF THE WAVE BREAKING BEHIND
YOU IS JUST NOT WORTH BEING WASHED INTO THE SEA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...BUT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BY LATE MONDAY AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS LARGELY CLEARED OUT LATE IN THE DAY
AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRODUCED GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT STRATUS EVOLUTION TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ALONG MUCH
OF THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL WINDS EASE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP INLAND BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE DIFFERENCE
THIS EVENING COMPARED TO LAST EVENING IS A WEAKER N-S SURFACE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD MEAN GREATER INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SF BAY LATE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND PREVENT THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PAC NW FROM IMPACTING OUR AREA IN ANY WAY. THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER A BIT TOMORROW SO
WE MAY SEE SLIGHT WARMING INLAND. BUT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND
MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS NEAR
PERSISTENCE. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND THEN SWING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RELATIVELY ROBUST
WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION FORECAST FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...THE MODELS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE LACKING IN MOISTURE.
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
SO WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS FOR LATE MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED FOR TUESDAY. THERE NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
TOTALS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH. ALSO...MUCH OF OUR AREA MAY NOT PICK
UP ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM A
RELATIVELY STRONG AND WET LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE
NEXT FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FINAL WEEKEND OF APRIL AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO HAVE
TAKEN A BREAK IN THE MONTEREY AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
SHORTLY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER STILL INDICATES THAT THE MARINE
LAYER IS HANGING TOUGH AT 2000 FEET AND A LOOK OUT OF THE OFFICE
WINDOW ALLOWS US TO SEE STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE BAY. IN SAN
FRANCISCO THE SODARS ARE STILL NOT INDICATING AN INVERSION
SIGNATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THEREFORE...DON`T ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO IMPACT THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY TERMINALS ANYTIME SOON IF AT ALL TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT EAST OF THE APPROACH.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SHORTLY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH 1200Z TONIGHT AT WHICH CIGS WILL FALL TO AROUND OVC007.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO OVC015 BY 1700Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS
GENERATED A LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE FORERUNNER
WAVES WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT A HEIGHT OF 5 TO 8 FEET
AND A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS. THE WAVES WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

THESE LARGE WAVES WILL RESULT IN SHOALING ALONG COASTAL SAND BARS,
REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS. MARINERS AND FISHERMEN PLEASE USE
CAUTION NEAR THESE UNDERWATER FEATURES. AT THE BEACH HIGH SURF IS
EXPECTED AT EXPOSED BEACHES SUCH AS OCEAN BEACH. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEACHES FROM SONOMA TO MONTEREY
ESPECIALLY ON WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. ON STEEPER
BEACHES SUCH AS CARMEL RIVER BEACH AND MONTARA STATE BEACH A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES IS ANTICIPATED. PLEASE DO NOT
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN WHILE VISITING THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...PLEASE DO NOT CLIMB ON OR FISH OFF OF COASTAL ROCKS
AND JETTIES AS YOU WILL RUN AN EXTREME RISK OF BEING WASHED INTO
THE SEA BY A WAVE. THAT DRAMATIC PHOTO OF THE WAVE BREAKING BEHIND
YOU IS JUST NOT WORTH BEING WASHED INTO THE SEA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 190400
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...BUT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BY LATE MONDAY AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS LARGELY CLEARED OUT LATE IN THE DAY
AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRODUCED GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT STRATUS EVOLUTION TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ALONG MUCH
OF THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL WINDS EASE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP INLAND BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE DIFFERENCE
THIS EVENING COMPARED TO LAST EVENING IS A WEAKER N-S SURFACE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD MEAN GREATER INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SF BAY LATE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND PREVENT THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PAC NW FROM IMPACTING OUR AREA IN ANY WAY. THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER A BIT TOMORROW SO
WE MAY SEE SLIGHT WARMING INLAND. BUT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND
MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS NEAR
PERSISTENCE. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND THEN SWING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RELATIVELY ROBUST
WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION FORECAST FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...THE MODELS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE LACKING IN MOISTURE.
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
SO WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS FOR LATE MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED FOR TUESDAY. THERE NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
TOTALS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH. ALSO...MUCH OF OUR AREA MAY NOT PICK
UP ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM A
RELATIVELY STRONG AND WET LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE
NEXT FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FINAL WEEKEND OF APRIL AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM ROUGHLY SANTA
CRUZ NORTH WITH OVERCAST SKIES ENGULFING SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND
PUSHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE BAY AREA SODARS REALLY ARE
NOT SHOWING A DEFINITIVE MARINE LAYER. WITH THIS IN MIND I DON`T
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IF IT RETURNS AT ALL TO THE BAY
AREA IT WILL BE LATE. ONE THE OTHER HAND THE MARINE LAYER IS A
SOLID 2000 FEET DEEP ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER AND STRATUS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF CLEARING ANYTIME SOON IN MONTEREY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 20 KT GUSTING TO 27 KT WILL
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS EVENING.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT EAST OF THE APPROACH.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 1200Z TONIGHT AT WHICH CIGS WILL FALL TO AROUND OVC007.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO OVC015 BY 1700Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT THIS
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL PACIFIC WATERS AND MONTEREY BAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA IN SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
ARRIVAL OF LARGE NW SWELL ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AS
EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190400
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...BUT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BY LATE MONDAY AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS LARGELY CLEARED OUT LATE IN THE DAY
AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRODUCED GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT STRATUS EVOLUTION TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ALONG MUCH
OF THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL WINDS EASE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP INLAND BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE DIFFERENCE
THIS EVENING COMPARED TO LAST EVENING IS A WEAKER N-S SURFACE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD MEAN GREATER INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SF BAY LATE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND PREVENT THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PAC NW FROM IMPACTING OUR AREA IN ANY WAY. THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER A BIT TOMORROW SO
WE MAY SEE SLIGHT WARMING INLAND. BUT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND
MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS NEAR
PERSISTENCE. WARMING IS FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND THEN SWING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RELATIVELY ROBUST
WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION FORECAST FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...THE MODELS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE LACKING IN MOISTURE.
ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
SO WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS FOR LATE MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...POPS MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED FOR TUESDAY. THERE NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
TOTALS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH. ALSO...MUCH OF OUR AREA MAY NOT PICK
UP ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM A
RELATIVELY STRONG AND WET LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE
NEXT FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FINAL WEEKEND OF APRIL AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM ROUGHLY SANTA
CRUZ NORTH WITH OVERCAST SKIES ENGULFING SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND
PUSHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE BAY AREA SODARS REALLY ARE
NOT SHOWING A DEFINITIVE MARINE LAYER. WITH THIS IN MIND I DON`T
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IF IT RETURNS AT ALL TO THE BAY
AREA IT WILL BE LATE. ONE THE OTHER HAND THE MARINE LAYER IS A
SOLID 2000 FEET DEEP ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER AND STRATUS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF CLEARING ANYTIME SOON IN MONTEREY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 20 KT GUSTING TO 27 KT WILL
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS EVENING.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT EAST OF THE APPROACH.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 1200Z TONIGHT AT WHICH CIGS WILL FALL TO AROUND OVC007.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO OVC015 BY 1700Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT THIS
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL PACIFIC WATERS AND MONTEREY BAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA IN SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
ARRIVAL OF LARGE NW SWELL ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AS
EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 182350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
450 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:33 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
STUBBORN TO CLEAR FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA AS WELL AS NEAR MONTEREY. THE REST OF THE DISTRICT...
HOWEVER...IS ENJOYING NICE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S SO FAR. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH INLAND READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO AFFECT CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEK. IT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT
PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND. THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. KEEPING FINGERS CROSSED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM ROUGHLY SANTA
CRUZ NORTH WITH OVERCAST SKIES ENGULFING SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND
PUSHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE BAY AREA SODARS REALLY ARE
NOT SHOWING A DEFINITIVE MARINE LAYER. WITH THIS IN MIND I DON`T
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IF IT RETURNS AT ALL TO THE BAY
AREA IT WILL BE LATE. ONE THE OTHER HAND THE MARINE LAYER IS A
SOLID 2000 FEET DEEP ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER AND STRATUS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF CLEARING ANYTIME SOON IN MONTEREY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 20 KT GUSTING TO 27 KT WILL
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS EVENING.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT EAST OF THE APPROACH.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 1200Z TONIGHT AT WHICH CIGS WILL FALL TO AROUND OVC007.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO OVC015 BY 1700Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT THIS
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL PACIFIC WATERS AND MONTEREY BAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA IN SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
ARRIVAL OF LARGE NW SWELL ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AS
EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 182350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
450 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:33 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
STUBBORN TO CLEAR FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA AS WELL AS NEAR MONTEREY. THE REST OF THE DISTRICT...
HOWEVER...IS ENJOYING NICE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S SO FAR. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH INLAND READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO AFFECT CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEK. IT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT
PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND. THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. KEEPING FINGERS CROSSED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM ROUGHLY SANTA
CRUZ NORTH WITH OVERCAST SKIES ENGULFING SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND
PUSHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE BAY AREA SODARS REALLY ARE
NOT SHOWING A DEFINITIVE MARINE LAYER. WITH THIS IN MIND I DON`T
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IF IT RETURNS AT ALL TO THE BAY
AREA IT WILL BE LATE. ONE THE OTHER HAND THE MARINE LAYER IS A
SOLID 2000 FEET DEEP ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER AND STRATUS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF CLEARING ANYTIME SOON IN MONTEREY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 20 KT GUSTING TO 27 KT WILL
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS EVENING.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT EAST OF THE APPROACH.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 1200Z TONIGHT AT WHICH CIGS WILL FALL TO AROUND OVC007.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO OVC015 BY 1700Z SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT THIS
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL PACIFIC WATERS AND MONTEREY BAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA IN SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
ARRIVAL OF LARGE NW SWELL ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AS
EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 182133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
233 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:33 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
STUBBORN TO CLEAR FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA AS WELL AS NEAR MONTEREY. THE REST OF THE DISTRICT...
HOWEVER...IS ENJOYING NICE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S SO FAR. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH INLAND READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO AFFECT CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEK. IT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT
PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND. THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. KEEPING FINGERS CROSSED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED
THE AREA TERMINALS AND LINGERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RETURN OVERNIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR AROUND 12Z SAT BUT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR BY 15Z SAT IN MOST AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST PEAKING AFTER 22Z
WITH GUSTS TO 27 KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
04Z. STRATUS TO RETURN 04-09Z TIME ACROSS THE BAY AND WILL EXPECT
CLEARING AFTER 14Z SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY BUT STRATUS
LINGERS NEARBY AND SHOULD RETURN BY 00Z SAT. MVFR TO IFR AT MRY
THROUGH 16Z SAT AND THEN SLOW CLEARING. VFR AT SNS WITH RETURN OF
STRATUS AFTER 02Z AND MVFR CIGS. WILL CLEAR AROUND 15Z SAT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL PACIFIC WATERS AND MONTEREY BAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA IN SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
ARRIVAL OF LARGE NW SWELL ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AS
EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: JOHNSON
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 182133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
233 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:33 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
STUBBORN TO CLEAR FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA AS WELL AS NEAR MONTEREY. THE REST OF THE DISTRICT...
HOWEVER...IS ENJOYING NICE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S SO FAR. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH INLAND READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO AFFECT CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEK. IT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT
PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND. THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. KEEPING FINGERS CROSSED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED
THE AREA TERMINALS AND LINGERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RETURN OVERNIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR AROUND 12Z SAT BUT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR BY 15Z SAT IN MOST AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST PEAKING AFTER 22Z
WITH GUSTS TO 27 KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
04Z. STRATUS TO RETURN 04-09Z TIME ACROSS THE BAY AND WILL EXPECT
CLEARING AFTER 14Z SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY BUT STRATUS
LINGERS NEARBY AND SHOULD RETURN BY 00Z SAT. MVFR TO IFR AT MRY
THROUGH 16Z SAT AND THEN SLOW CLEARING. VFR AT SNS WITH RETURN OF
STRATUS AFTER 02Z AND MVFR CIGS. WILL CLEAR AROUND 15Z SAT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL PACIFIC WATERS AND MONTEREY BAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA IN SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
ARRIVAL OF LARGE NW SWELL ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AS
EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: JOHNSON
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 181952
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1252 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 12:42 PM PDT FRIDAY...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A LOT LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY WITH A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER...STRATUS CLOUDS ARE HUGGING THE COASTLINE AND EXTENDING
ONLY LOCALLY INLAND OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ALONG THE SAN
MATEO COAST. EXPECT A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT MAINLY DUE TO
THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 60S AND 70S...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF
SAN BENITO COUNTY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED
THE AREA TERMINALS AND LINGERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RETURN OVERNIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR AROUND 12Z SAT BUT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR BY 15Z SAT IN MOST AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST PEAKING AFTER 22Z
WITH GUSTS TO 27 KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
04Z. STRATUS TO RETURN 04-09Z TIME ACROSS THE BAY AND WILL EXPECT
CLEARING AFTER 14Z SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY BUT STRATUS
LINGERS NEARBY AND SHOULD RETURN BY 00Z SAT. MVFR TO IFR AT MRY
THROUGH 16Z SAT AND THEN SLOW CLEARING. VFR AT SNS WITH RETURN OF
STRATUS AFTER 02Z AND MVFR CIGS. WILL CLEAR AROUND 15Z SAT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL PACIFIC WATERS AND
MONTEREY BAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCA IN SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL OF
LARGE NW SWELL ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
FROM ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AS EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: JOHNSON
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 181952
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1252 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 12:42 PM PDT FRIDAY...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A LOT LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY WITH A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER...STRATUS CLOUDS ARE HUGGING THE COASTLINE AND EXTENDING
ONLY LOCALLY INLAND OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ALONG THE SAN
MATEO COAST. EXPECT A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT MAINLY DUE TO
THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 60S AND 70S...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF
SAN BENITO COUNTY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED
THE AREA TERMINALS AND LINGERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RETURN OVERNIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR AROUND 12Z SAT BUT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR BY 15Z SAT IN MOST AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST PEAKING AFTER 22Z
WITH GUSTS TO 27 KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
04Z. STRATUS TO RETURN 04-09Z TIME ACROSS THE BAY AND WILL EXPECT
CLEARING AFTER 14Z SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY BUT STRATUS
LINGERS NEARBY AND SHOULD RETURN BY 00Z SAT. MVFR TO IFR AT MRY
THROUGH 16Z SAT AND THEN SLOW CLEARING. VFR AT SNS WITH RETURN OF
STRATUS AFTER 02Z AND MVFR CIGS. WILL CLEAR AROUND 15Z SAT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL PACIFIC WATERS AND
MONTEREY BAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCA IN SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL OF
LARGE NW SWELL ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
FROM ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AS EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: JOHNSON
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 181545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A LOT LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY WITH A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER...STRATUS CLOUDS ARE HUGGING THE COASTLINE AND EXTENDING
ONLY LOCALLY INLAND OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ALONG THE SAN
MATEO COAST. EXPECT A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT MAINLY DUE TO
THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 60S AND 70S...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF
SAN BENITO COUNTY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...PATCHY STRATUS THIS MORNING
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST PLUS A PATCH IN THE EAST
BAY. MARINE LAYER IS ILL-DEFINED AROUND 1000 FT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
COVERAGE LIMITED DESPITE ONSHORE GRADIENT. CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING EXCEPT AT THE COAST. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE STRATUS BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z.
WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT AGAIN TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY AS ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINS STRATUS. PATCHY CIGS AT SNS TO BREAK OUT MID
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: AC

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 181545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A LOT LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY WITH A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER...STRATUS CLOUDS ARE HUGGING THE COASTLINE AND EXTENDING
ONLY LOCALLY INLAND OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ALONG THE SAN
MATEO COAST. EXPECT A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT MAINLY DUE TO
THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 60S AND 70S...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF
SAN BENITO COUNTY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...PATCHY STRATUS THIS MORNING
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST PLUS A PATCH IN THE EAST
BAY. MARINE LAYER IS ILL-DEFINED AROUND 1000 FT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
COVERAGE LIMITED DESPITE ONSHORE GRADIENT. CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING EXCEPT AT THE COAST. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE STRATUS BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z.
WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT AGAIN TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY AS ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINS STRATUS. PATCHY CIGS AT SNS TO BREAK OUT MID
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: AC

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 181146
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
446 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW IN WAKE
OF THE TROUGH EXITING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO INLAND AREAS. MEANWHILE,
COASTAL LOCATION WILL REMAIN COOLEST WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LATER
BURN OFF OF STRATUS EACH MORNING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN
HIT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS AND SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...PATCHY STRATUS THIS MORNING
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST PLUS A PATCH IN THE EAST
BAY. MARINE LAYER IS ILL-DEFINED AROUND 1000 FT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
COVERAGE LIMITED DESPITE ONSHORE GRADIENT. CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING EXCEPT AT THE COAST. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE STRATUS BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z.
WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT AGAIN TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY AS ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINS STRATUS. PATCHY CIGS AT SNS TO BREAK OUT MID
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 181146
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
446 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW IN WAKE
OF THE TROUGH EXITING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO INLAND AREAS. MEANWHILE,
COASTAL LOCATION WILL REMAIN COOLEST WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LATER
BURN OFF OF STRATUS EACH MORNING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN
HIT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS AND SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...PATCHY STRATUS THIS MORNING
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST PLUS A PATCH IN THE EAST
BAY. MARINE LAYER IS ILL-DEFINED AROUND 1000 FT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
COVERAGE LIMITED DESPITE ONSHORE GRADIENT. CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING EXCEPT AT THE COAST. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE STRATUS BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z.
WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT AGAIN TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY AS ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINS STRATUS. PATCHY CIGS AT SNS TO BREAK OUT MID
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 181112
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
412 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW IN WAKE
OF THE TROUGH EXITING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO INLAND AREAS. MEANWHILE,
COASTAL LOCATION WILL REMAIN COOLEST WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LATER
BURN OFF OF STRATUS EACH MORNING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN
HIT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS AND SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT
IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A MID LEVEL COLD FRONT PASSING BY
WHICH IS AIDING IN MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS STILL INDICATING A DEEP MARINE LAYER. THEREFORE IT IS
A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST MONTEREY
AND SALINAS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF CIGS BKN-OVC010 BETWEEN 1200 AND 1600Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
OVC007 BY AROUND 1000Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 181112
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
412 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW IN WAKE
OF THE TROUGH EXITING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO INLAND AREAS. MEANWHILE,
COASTAL LOCATION WILL REMAIN COOLEST WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LATER
BURN OFF OF STRATUS EACH MORNING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS THEN
HIT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS AND SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT
IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A MID LEVEL COLD FRONT PASSING BY
WHICH IS AIDING IN MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS STILL INDICATING A DEEP MARINE LAYER. THEREFORE IT IS
A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST MONTEREY
AND SALINAS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF CIGS BKN-OVC010 BETWEEN 1200 AND 1600Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
OVC007 BY AROUND 1000Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 180545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS NEAR THE
COAST...ALONG WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER
THAN NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT
THE FRONT IS DRY AT OUR LATITUDE. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED ENOUGH
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MIXING ACROSS OUR AREA TO MOSTLY MIX
OUT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN
TO EASE.

COOLING OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY BEGINNING TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC
NW ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN FACT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AT THE COAST WHERE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON
MONDAY AND THEN DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BEGIN MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL
OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY THE LAST
WEEKEND IN APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT
IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A MID LEVEL COLD FRONT PASSING BY
WHICH IS AIDING IN MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS STILL INDICATING A DEEP MARINE LAYER. THEREFORE IT IS
A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST MONTEREY
AND SALINAS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF CIGS BKN-OVC010 BETWEEN 1200 AND 1600Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
OVC007 BY AROUND 1000Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 180545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS NEAR THE
COAST...ALONG WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER
THAN NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT
THE FRONT IS DRY AT OUR LATITUDE. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED ENOUGH
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MIXING ACROSS OUR AREA TO MOSTLY MIX
OUT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN
TO EASE.

COOLING OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY BEGINNING TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC
NW ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN FACT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AT THE COAST WHERE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON
MONDAY AND THEN DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BEGIN MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL
OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY THE LAST
WEEKEND IN APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT
IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A MID LEVEL COLD FRONT PASSING BY
WHICH IS AIDING IN MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS STILL INDICATING A DEEP MARINE LAYER. THEREFORE IT IS
A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST MONTEREY
AND SALINAS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF CIGS BKN-OVC010 BETWEEN 1200 AND 1600Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
OVC007 BY AROUND 1000Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 180335
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS NEAR THE
COAST...ALONG WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER
THAN NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT
THE FRONT IS DRY AT OUR LATITUDE. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED ENOUGH
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MIXING ACROSS OUR AREA TO MOSTLY MIX
OUT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN
TO EASE.

COOLING OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY BEGINNING TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC
NW ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN FACT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AT THE COAST WHERE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON
MONDAY AND THEN DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BEGIN MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL
OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY THE LAST
WEEKEND IN APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS AIDING IN KEEPING STRATUS OUT OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS MAINTAINING STRATUS
IN THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING
THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FEET...DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT STRATUS TO PERSIST IN THE
MONTEREY AREA AND POSSIBLY FORM LATE TONIGHT IN THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 0800Z AT
WHICH POINT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BKN-OVC015. WEST WINDS AT
20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT WILL DECREASE TO 12 TO 15 KT BEGINNING
AROUND 0500Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS OVC015 ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO IFR OVC007 BEGINNING AROUND 0800Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 TO 15 KT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 180335
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS NEAR THE
COAST...ALONG WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER
THAN NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT
THE FRONT IS DRY AT OUR LATITUDE. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED ENOUGH
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MIXING ACROSS OUR AREA TO MOSTLY MIX
OUT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN
TO EASE.

COOLING OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY BEGINNING TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC
NW ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN FACT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AT THE COAST WHERE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON
MONDAY AND THEN DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BEGIN MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL
OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY THE LAST
WEEKEND IN APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS AIDING IN KEEPING STRATUS OUT OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS MAINTAINING STRATUS
IN THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING
THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FEET...DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT STRATUS TO PERSIST IN THE
MONTEREY AREA AND POSSIBLY FORM LATE TONIGHT IN THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 0800Z AT
WHICH POINT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BKN-OVC015. WEST WINDS AT
20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT WILL DECREASE TO 12 TO 15 KT BEGINNING
AROUND 0500Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS OVC015 ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO IFR OVC007 BEGINNING AROUND 0800Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 TO 15 KT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 172336
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOL...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TEMPERATURES FOR
INLAND AREAS WILL COOL SOMEWHAT...BUT MOSTLY REMAIN A BIT WARMER
THAN NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ALONG THE BIG
SUR COAST...AS WELL AS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SAN MATEO COUNTY.
IN ADDITION THERE ARE STILL A GREAT DEAL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. THE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FOR EXAMPLE SALINAS AIRPORT IS 58
DEGREES...10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND ITS MAIN EFFECT EXPECTED WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT ALSO
OVER THE COASTLINE...MAINLY FROM COASTAL MARIN COUNTY SOUTH
THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER AREA BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
IN THE EXTENDED AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS AIDING IN KEEPING STRATUS OUT OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS MAINTAINING STRATUS
IN THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING
THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FEET...DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT STRATUS TO PERSIST IN THE
MONTEREY AREA AND POSSIBLY FORM LATE TONIGHT IN THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 0800Z AT
WHICH POINT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BKN-OVC015. WEST WINDS AT
20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT WILL DECREASE TO 12 TO 15 KT BEGINNING
AROUND 0500Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS OVC015 ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO IFR OVC007 BEGINNING AROUND 0800Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 TO 15 KT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 172336
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOL...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TEMPERATURES FOR
INLAND AREAS WILL COOL SOMEWHAT...BUT MOSTLY REMAIN A BIT WARMER
THAN NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE
PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ALONG THE BIG
SUR COAST...AS WELL AS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SAN MATEO COUNTY.
IN ADDITION THERE ARE STILL A GREAT DEAL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. THE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FOR EXAMPLE SALINAS AIRPORT IS 58
DEGREES...10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND ITS MAIN EFFECT EXPECTED WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT ALSO
OVER THE COASTLINE...MAINLY FROM COASTAL MARIN COUNTY SOUTH
THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER AREA BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
IN THE EXTENDED AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS AIDING IN KEEPING STRATUS OUT OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS MAINTAINING STRATUS
IN THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING
THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FEET...DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT STRATUS TO PERSIST IN THE
MONTEREY AREA AND POSSIBLY FORM LATE TONIGHT IN THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 0800Z AT
WHICH POINT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BKN-OVC015. WEST WINDS AT
20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT WILL DECREASE TO 12 TO 15 KT BEGINNING
AROUND 0500Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS OVC015 ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO IFR OVC007 BEGINNING AROUND 0800Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 TO 15 KT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






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