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000
FXUS66 KMTR 161644
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR AREA AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:40 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS VERY MIXED OUT THIS MORNING AND HAS GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS REGION WIDE...EVEN ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALONG THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND WILL BE SPENDING TIME LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...STILL GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH SATELLITE PRODUCTS DO
INDICATE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST PLUS A COUPLE OF BANDS
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. SURFACE GRADIENT SHOWS AROUND 1.5 MB
DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST, SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF BEFORE NOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THAT BROUGHT US WARM READINGS YESTERDAY WILL BE MORE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER TODAY -- ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROF. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AN UP NORTH TO 80S AND 90
FOR SOUTHERN INTERIOR SPOTS.

THE TROF WILL PROGRESS TO THE PACNW/NORCAL COAST BY THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FIRST IMPACTING WA/OR AND THEN INTO CALIFORNIA
LATER IN THE DAY. AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF AS THE TROF AXIS HEADS
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD WE
WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HAVE ALSO PAINTED THE AREA DOWN
INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. DECIDED TO UP THE POPS BY ABOUT 10-20% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS THAT MAY HAVE RAIN. AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH VARIOUS FORECASTING TOOLS SHOWING
LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1/10" OF AN INCH OF RAIN DOWN
TO SAN FRANCISCO. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE LOTS OF PLACES PICKING
UP JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH A COUPLE OF GAGES GETTING AROUND A
TENTH. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, ANY RAIN WILL LEAD
TO SLICK ROADS, SO DRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE TRICKY. TEMPS
WILL COOL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE SYSTEM.

FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEK DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EACH DAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND
FROM 11-13C UP TO 21-23C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO BRING AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO OUR AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND BY BUILDING THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. DUE TO VERY
HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

EVEN WARMER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL, THERE
REMAINS LESS AGREEMENT FOR THE THE HEIGHT OF THE RIDGE PLUS THE
LOCATIONS OF THE AXIS. CPC KEEPS THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER GOING
ALMOST TO THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INLAND INTRUSION OF STRATUS THIS MORNING
AND OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUP INSTEAD OF PREDOMINANT GROUPS DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS FIELD. STRATUS WILL CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY 18Z TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TILL 17Z THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 17Z THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:56 AM PDT TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH A MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 161644
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR AREA AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:40 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS VERY MIXED OUT THIS MORNING AND HAS GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS REGION WIDE...EVEN ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALONG THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND WILL BE SPENDING TIME LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...STILL GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH SATELLITE PRODUCTS DO
INDICATE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST PLUS A COUPLE OF BANDS
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. SURFACE GRADIENT SHOWS AROUND 1.5 MB
DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST, SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF BEFORE NOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THAT BROUGHT US WARM READINGS YESTERDAY WILL BE MORE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER TODAY -- ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROF. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AN UP NORTH TO 80S AND 90
FOR SOUTHERN INTERIOR SPOTS.

THE TROF WILL PROGRESS TO THE PACNW/NORCAL COAST BY THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FIRST IMPACTING WA/OR AND THEN INTO CALIFORNIA
LATER IN THE DAY. AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF AS THE TROF AXIS HEADS
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD WE
WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HAVE ALSO PAINTED THE AREA DOWN
INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. DECIDED TO UP THE POPS BY ABOUT 10-20% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS THAT MAY HAVE RAIN. AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH VARIOUS FORECASTING TOOLS SHOWING
LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1/10" OF AN INCH OF RAIN DOWN
TO SAN FRANCISCO. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE LOTS OF PLACES PICKING
UP JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH A COUPLE OF GAGES GETTING AROUND A
TENTH. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, ANY RAIN WILL LEAD
TO SLICK ROADS, SO DRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE TRICKY. TEMPS
WILL COOL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE SYSTEM.

FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEK DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EACH DAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND
FROM 11-13C UP TO 21-23C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO BRING AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO OUR AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND BY BUILDING THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. DUE TO VERY
HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

EVEN WARMER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL, THERE
REMAINS LESS AGREEMENT FOR THE THE HEIGHT OF THE RIDGE PLUS THE
LOCATIONS OF THE AXIS. CPC KEEPS THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER GOING
ALMOST TO THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INLAND INTRUSION OF STRATUS THIS MORNING
AND OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUP INSTEAD OF PREDOMINANT GROUPS DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS FIELD. STRATUS WILL CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY 18Z TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TILL 17Z THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 17Z THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:56 AM PDT TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH A MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 161155
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR AREA AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...STILL GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH SATELLITE PRODUCTS DO
INDICATE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST PLUS A COUPLE OF BANDS
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. SURFACE GRADIENT SHOWS AROUND 1.5 MB
DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST, SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF BEFORE NOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THAT BROUGHT US WARM READINGS YESTERDAY WILL BE MORE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER TODAY -- ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROF. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AN UP NORTH TO 80S AND 90
FOR SOUTHERN INTERIOR SPOTS.

THE TROF WILL PROGRESS TO THE PACNW/NORCAL COAST BY THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FIRST IMPACTING WA/OR AND THEN INTO CALIFORNIA
LATER IN THE DAY. AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF AS THE TROF AXIS HEADS
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD WE
WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HAVE ALSO PAINTED THE AREA DOWN
INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. DECIDED TO UP THE POPS BY ABOUT 10-20% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS THAT MAY HAVE RAIN. AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH VARIOUS FORECASTING TOOLS SHOWING
LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1/10" OF AN INCH OF RAIN DOWN
TO SAN FRANCISCO. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE LOTS OF PLACES PICKING
UP JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH A COUPLE OF GAGES GETTING AROUND A
TENTH. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, ANY RAIN WILL LEAD
TO SLICK ROADS, SO DRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE TRICKY. TEMPS
WILL COOL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE SYSTEM.

FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEK DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EACH DAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND
FROM 11-13C UP TO 21-23C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO BRING AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO OUR AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND BY BUILDING THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. DUE TO VERY
HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

EVEN WARMER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL, THERE
REMAINS LESS AGREEMENT FOR THE THE HEIGHT OF THE RIDGE PLUS THE
LOCATIONS OF THE AXIS. CPC KEEPS THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER GOING
ALMOST TO THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INLAND INTRUSION OF STRATUS THIS MORNING
AND OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUP INSTEAD OF PREDOMINANT GROUPS DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS FIELD. STRATUS WILL CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY 18Z TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TILL 17Z THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 17Z THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:56 AM PDT TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH A MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 161155
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR AREA AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...STILL GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH SATELLITE PRODUCTS DO
INDICATE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST PLUS A COUPLE OF BANDS
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. SURFACE GRADIENT SHOWS AROUND 1.5 MB
DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST, SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF BEFORE NOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THAT BROUGHT US WARM READINGS YESTERDAY WILL BE MORE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER TODAY -- ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROF. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AN UP NORTH TO 80S AND 90
FOR SOUTHERN INTERIOR SPOTS.

THE TROF WILL PROGRESS TO THE PACNW/NORCAL COAST BY THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FIRST IMPACTING WA/OR AND THEN INTO CALIFORNIA
LATER IN THE DAY. AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF AS THE TROF AXIS HEADS
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD WE
WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HAVE ALSO PAINTED THE AREA DOWN
INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. DECIDED TO UP THE POPS BY ABOUT 10-20% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS THAT MAY HAVE RAIN. AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH VARIOUS FORECASTING TOOLS SHOWING
LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1/10" OF AN INCH OF RAIN DOWN
TO SAN FRANCISCO. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE LOTS OF PLACES PICKING
UP JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH A COUPLE OF GAGES GETTING AROUND A
TENTH. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, ANY RAIN WILL LEAD
TO SLICK ROADS, SO DRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE TRICKY. TEMPS
WILL COOL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE SYSTEM.

FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEK DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EACH DAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND
FROM 11-13C UP TO 21-23C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO BRING AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO OUR AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND BY BUILDING THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. DUE TO VERY
HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

EVEN WARMER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL, THERE
REMAINS LESS AGREEMENT FOR THE THE HEIGHT OF THE RIDGE PLUS THE
LOCATIONS OF THE AXIS. CPC KEEPS THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER GOING
ALMOST TO THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INLAND INTRUSION OF STRATUS THIS MORNING
AND OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUP INSTEAD OF PREDOMINANT GROUPS DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS FIELD. STRATUS WILL CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY 18Z TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TILL 17Z THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 17Z THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:56 AM PDT TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH A MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 161009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
309 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR AREA AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...STILL GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH SATELLITE PRODUCTS DO
INDICATE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST PLUS A COUPLE OF BANDS
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. SURFACE GRADIENT SHOWS AROUND 1.5 MB
DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST, SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF BEFORE NOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THAT BROUGHT US WARM READINGS YESTERDAY WILL BE MORE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER TODAY -- ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROF. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AN UP NORTH TO 80S AND 90
FOR SOUTHERN INTERIOR SPOTS.

THE TROF WILL PROGRESS TO THE PACNW/NORCAL COAST BY THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FIRST IMPACTING WA/OR AND THEN INTO CALIFORNIA
LATER IN THE DAY. AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF AS THE TROF AXIS HEADS
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD WE
WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HAVE ALSO PAINTED THE AREA DOWN
INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. DECIDED TO UP THE POPS BY ABOUT 10-20% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS THAT MAY HAVE RAIN. AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH VARIOUS FORECASTING TOOLS SHOWING
LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1/10" OF AN INCH OF RAIN DOWN
TO SAN FRANCISCO. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE LOTS OF PLACES PICKING
UP JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH A COUPLE OF GAGES GETTING AROUND A
TENTH. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, ANY RAIN WILL LEAD
TO SLICK ROADS, SO DRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE TRICKY. TEMPS
WILL COOL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE SYSTEM.

FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEK DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EACH DAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND
FROM 11-13C UP TO 21-23C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO BRING AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO OUR AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND BY BUILDING THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. DUE TO VERY
HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

EVEN WARMER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL, THERE
REMAINS LESS AGREEMENT FOR THE THE HEIGHT OF THE RIDGE PLUS THE
LOCATIONS OF THE AXIS. CPC KEEPS THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER GOING
ALMOST TO THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...VFR HELD TOGETHER WELL
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM POINT REYES TO SAN FRANCISCO. AIRMASS
STABILITY...NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT-TIME
HOURS. THE USUAL CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TIL 10Z. MVFR CIG POSSIBLE FROM 10Z-17Z.
VFR RETURNS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR STILL HOLDING THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR FORECAST TO
DEVELOP 07Z-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH NORTHWEST
SWELL THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 160531
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1031 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:47 PM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE WIND FLOW IS DISTINCTLY ONSHORE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OCEAN. THE SST ARE NOW A SOLID 65
DEGREES...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND THE MARINE INVERSION LAYER ISN`T
REFORMING LIKE IT USUALLY DOES WITH LARGER SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA T.
ANYWAY STILL EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SLOWLY REFORM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM.

BATCH OF MOISTURE CLEARLY SHOWS UP ON IR SATELLITE OUR NEAR
35N/135W WITH JET STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL SLOW ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS WILL TS ODILE
AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US.

MAIN RAIN BAND WILL STAY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BAY AREA AND HEAD
TOWARDS CAPE MENDOCINO BY WEDS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS THIS OCCURS
THE SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT AND NOW PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
GENERATING SOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY LATER
WEDS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE (OR PERHAPS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS).
MOS GUIDANCE HAS POPS AS HIGH AS 40% FOR SANTA ROSA TO AROUND 20%
FOR SAN JOSE BUT AGAIN LITTLE HOPE FOR MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

THE JUICY AND SOMEWHAT PROMISING WEATHER SYSTEM GETS CUT-OFF AND
BECOMES MORIBUND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST AND THE BAY AREA
WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 24 CELSIUS...THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST...590 DM HIGH
OVER NORCAL AND SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...VFR HELD TOGETHER WELL
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM POINT REYES TO SAN FRANCISCO. AIRMASS
STABILITY...NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT-TIME
HOURS. THE USUAL CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TIL 10Z. MVFR CIG POSSIBLE FROM 10Z-17Z.
VFR RETURNS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR STILL HOLDING THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR FORECAST TO
DEVELOP 07Z-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH NORTHWEST
SWELL THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 160531
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1031 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:47 PM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE WIND FLOW IS DISTINCTLY ONSHORE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OCEAN. THE SST ARE NOW A SOLID 65
DEGREES...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND THE MARINE INVERSION LAYER ISN`T
REFORMING LIKE IT USUALLY DOES WITH LARGER SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA T.
ANYWAY STILL EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SLOWLY REFORM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM.

BATCH OF MOISTURE CLEARLY SHOWS UP ON IR SATELLITE OUR NEAR
35N/135W WITH JET STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL SLOW ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS WILL TS ODILE
AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US.

MAIN RAIN BAND WILL STAY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BAY AREA AND HEAD
TOWARDS CAPE MENDOCINO BY WEDS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS THIS OCCURS
THE SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT AND NOW PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
GENERATING SOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY LATER
WEDS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE (OR PERHAPS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS).
MOS GUIDANCE HAS POPS AS HIGH AS 40% FOR SANTA ROSA TO AROUND 20%
FOR SAN JOSE BUT AGAIN LITTLE HOPE FOR MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

THE JUICY AND SOMEWHAT PROMISING WEATHER SYSTEM GETS CUT-OFF AND
BECOMES MORIBUND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST AND THE BAY AREA
WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 24 CELSIUS...THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST...590 DM HIGH
OVER NORCAL AND SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...VFR HELD TOGETHER WELL
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM POINT REYES TO SAN FRANCISCO. AIRMASS
STABILITY...NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT-TIME
HOURS. THE USUAL CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TIL 10Z. MVFR CIG POSSIBLE FROM 10Z-17Z.
VFR RETURNS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR STILL HOLDING THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR FORECAST TO
DEVELOP 07Z-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH NORTHWEST
SWELL THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 160448
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
948 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:47 PM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE WIND FLOW IS DISTINCTLY ONSHORE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OCEAN. THE SST ARE NOW A SOLID 65
DEGREES...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND THE MARINE INVERSION LAYER ISN`T
REFORMING LIKE IT USUALLY DOES WITH LARGER SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA T.
ANYWAY STILL EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SLOWLY REFORM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM.

BATCH OF MOISTURE CLEARLY SHOWS UP ON IR SATELLITE OUR NEAR
35N/135W WITH JET STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL SLOW ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS WILL TS ODILE
AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US.

MAIN RAIN BAND WILL STAY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BAY AREA AND HEAD
TOWARDS CAPE MENDOCINO BY WEDS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS THIS OCCURS
THE SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT AND NOW PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
GENERATING SOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY LATER
WEDS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE (OR PERHAPS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS).
MOS GUIDANCE HAS POPS AS HIGH AS 40% FOR SANTA ROSA TO AROUND 20%
FOR SAN JOSE BUT AGAIN LITTLE HOPE FOR MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

THE JUICY AND SOMEWHAT PROMISING WEATHER SYSTEM GETS CUT-OFF AND
BECOMES MORIBUND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST AND THE BAY AREA
WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 24 CELSIUS...THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST...590 DM HIGH
OVER NORCAL AND SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PROB VFR WILL CONTINUE
AT AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
OVER AREA. HOWEVER LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP AND SOME INLAND MOTION OF THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20
KT TIL 04Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE AT NIGHT. VFR
RETURNS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL
HOLD THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING. IFR FORECAST TO DEVELOP 07Z-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 160448
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
948 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:47 PM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE WIND FLOW IS DISTINCTLY ONSHORE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OCEAN. THE SST ARE NOW A SOLID 65
DEGREES...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND THE MARINE INVERSION LAYER ISN`T
REFORMING LIKE IT USUALLY DOES WITH LARGER SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA T.
ANYWAY STILL EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SLOWLY REFORM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM.

BATCH OF MOISTURE CLEARLY SHOWS UP ON IR SATELLITE OUR NEAR
35N/135W WITH JET STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL SLOW ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS WILL TS ODILE
AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US.

MAIN RAIN BAND WILL STAY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE BAY AREA AND HEAD
TOWARDS CAPE MENDOCINO BY WEDS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS THIS OCCURS
THE SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT AND NOW PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
GENERATING SOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY LATER
WEDS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE (OR PERHAPS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS).
MOS GUIDANCE HAS POPS AS HIGH AS 40% FOR SANTA ROSA TO AROUND 20%
FOR SAN JOSE BUT AGAIN LITTLE HOPE FOR MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

THE JUICY AND SOMEWHAT PROMISING WEATHER SYSTEM GETS CUT-OFF AND
BECOMES MORIBUND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST AND THE BAY AREA
WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 24 CELSIUS...THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST...590 DM HIGH
OVER NORCAL AND SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PROB VFR WILL CONTINUE
AT AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
OVER AREA. HOWEVER LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP AND SOME INLAND MOTION OF THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20
KT TIL 04Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE AT NIGHT. VFR
RETURNS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL
HOLD THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING. IFR FORECAST TO DEVELOP 07Z-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 152345
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
445 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY MIX OUT EACH DAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
NEAR THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS THE THROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND THROUGH THE REGION...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER
THE NORTH BAY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. COASTAL
DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH PICKING UP TRACE AMOUNTS TO NO RAINFALL AT ALL.

AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW PUSHES FURTHER INLAND AND
THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN
DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OVERALL...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PROB VFR WILL CONTINUE
AT AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
OVER AREA. HOWEVER LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP AND SOME INLAND MOTION OF THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20
KT TIL 04Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE AT NIGHT. VFR
RETURNS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL
HOLD THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING. IFR FORECAST TO DEVELOP 07Z-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 152345
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
445 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY MIX OUT EACH DAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
NEAR THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS THE THROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND THROUGH THE REGION...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER
THE NORTH BAY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. COASTAL
DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH PICKING UP TRACE AMOUNTS TO NO RAINFALL AT ALL.

AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW PUSHES FURTHER INLAND AND
THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN
DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OVERALL...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PROB VFR WILL CONTINUE
AT AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
OVER AREA. HOWEVER LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP AND SOME INLAND MOTION OF THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20
KT TIL 04Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE AT NIGHT. VFR
RETURNS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL
HOLD THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING. IFR FORECAST TO DEVELOP 07Z-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 152046
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
146 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY MIX OUT EACH DAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
NEAR THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS THE THROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND THROUGH THE REGION...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER
THE NORTH BAY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. COASTAL
DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH PICKING UP TRACE AMOUNTS TO NO RAINFALL AT ALL.

AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW PUSHES FURTHER INLAND AND
THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN
DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OVERALL...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT MONDAY...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO
BURN-OFF WITH VFR NOW AT ALL SPOTS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CLOUDS RETURNING TONIGHT ALTHOUGH START TIMES ARE MORE OF A
QUESTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY SPEEDS UP TO
20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 04Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WILL GO WITH VFR INTO THE EVENING
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST AND CLOSE TO KMRY. LOW CIGS
RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 05Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 152046
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
146 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY MIX OUT EACH DAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
NEAR THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS THE THROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND THROUGH THE REGION...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER
THE NORTH BAY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. COASTAL
DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH PICKING UP TRACE AMOUNTS TO NO RAINFALL AT ALL.

AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW PUSHES FURTHER INLAND AND
THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN
DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OVERALL...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT MONDAY...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO
BURN-OFF WITH VFR NOW AT ALL SPOTS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CLOUDS RETURNING TONIGHT ALTHOUGH START TIMES ARE MORE OF A
QUESTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY SPEEDS UP TO
20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 04Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WILL GO WITH VFR INTO THE EVENING
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST AND CLOSE TO KMRY. LOW CIGS
RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 05Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 151809
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1109 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...MARINE LAYER A BIT MORE
COMPRESSED THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAS KEPT
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. STRATUS
ALSO SLOWLY BURNING OFF OVER THE INLAND AREAS...MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTH AND EAST BAY REGION AS WELL AS AROUND MONTEREY BAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES INLAND TODAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED ALONG
140W. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL GRAZE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE CONTAINS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND ITS ONLY IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE TO COOL THE
AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST
INLAND COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND TAP INTO A
RELATIVELY HIGH PW MOISTURE PLUME ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED DOWNWARD DRIFT
IN TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOS GENERALLY FORECASTS
SLIGHT WARMING. PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
FOR TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH
BAY COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES INLAND. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST...IT IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY MAY ALLOW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO TOTAL MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY. THE GFS MOVES AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. THE GEM AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FORMATION
OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER CA WHICH WILL THEN MEANDER NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THAT PRECIP IS FORECAST TO FALL TO OUR EAST
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEEKEND RAIN IN OUR AREA APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED IS RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN WARMING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO
ADVANCED BY THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES WOULD
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT MONDAY...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO
BURN-OFF WITH VFR NOW AT ALL SPOTS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CLOUDS RETURNING TONIGHT ALTHOUGH START TIMES ARE MORE OF A
QUESTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY SPEEDS UP TO
20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 04Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WILL GO WITH VFR INTO THE EVENING
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST AND CLOSE TO KMRY. LOW CIGS
RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 05Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 151809
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1109 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...MARINE LAYER A BIT MORE
COMPRESSED THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAS KEPT
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. STRATUS
ALSO SLOWLY BURNING OFF OVER THE INLAND AREAS...MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTH AND EAST BAY REGION AS WELL AS AROUND MONTEREY BAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES INLAND TODAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED ALONG
140W. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL GRAZE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE CONTAINS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND ITS ONLY IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE TO COOL THE
AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST
INLAND COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND TAP INTO A
RELATIVELY HIGH PW MOISTURE PLUME ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED DOWNWARD DRIFT
IN TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOS GENERALLY FORECASTS
SLIGHT WARMING. PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
FOR TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH
BAY COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES INLAND. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST...IT IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY MAY ALLOW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO TOTAL MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY. THE GFS MOVES AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. THE GEM AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FORMATION
OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER CA WHICH WILL THEN MEANDER NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THAT PRECIP IS FORECAST TO FALL TO OUR EAST
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEEKEND RAIN IN OUR AREA APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED IS RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN WARMING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO
ADVANCED BY THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES WOULD
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT MONDAY...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO
BURN-OFF WITH VFR NOW AT ALL SPOTS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CLOUDS RETURNING TONIGHT ALTHOUGH START TIMES ARE MORE OF A
QUESTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY SPEEDS UP TO
20 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 04Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WILL GO WITH VFR INTO THE EVENING
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST AND CLOSE TO KMRY. LOW CIGS
RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 05Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 151611
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...MARINE LAYER A BIT MORE
COMPRESSED THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAS KEPT
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. STRATUS
ALSO SLOWLY BURNING OFF OVER THE INLAND AREAS...MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTH AND EAST BAY REGION AS WELL AS AROUND MONTEREY BAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES INLAND TODAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED ALONG
140W. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL GRAZE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE CONTAINS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND ITS ONLY IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE TO COOL THE
AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST
INLAND COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND TAP INTO A
RELATIVELY HIGH PW MOISTURE PLUME ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED DOWNWARD DRIFT
IN TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOS GENERALLY FORECASTS
SLIGHT WARMING. PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
FOR TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH
BAY COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES INLAND. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST...IT IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY MAY ALLOW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO TOTAL MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY. THE GFS MOVES AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. THE GEM AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FORMATION
OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER CA WHICH WILL THEN MEANDER NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THAT PRECIP IS FORECAST TO FALL TO OUR EAST
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEEKEND RAIN IN OUR AREA APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED IS RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN WARMING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO
ADVANCED BY THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES WOULD
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER
AREA TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z-18Z
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY AROUND 1500 FT)
CONTINUES TO DEEPENED AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS FILLING IN OVER THE BAY AREA THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FILL IN OVER KOAK AND OVER THE
APPROACH. KSFO MAY ONLY SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 13Z-17Z.
CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. LIGHT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE OF 10 TO 20
KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BETWEEN
17Z-18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 151611
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...MARINE LAYER A BIT MORE
COMPRESSED THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAS KEPT
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. STRATUS
ALSO SLOWLY BURNING OFF OVER THE INLAND AREAS...MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTH AND EAST BAY REGION AS WELL AS AROUND MONTEREY BAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES INLAND TODAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED ALONG
140W. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL GRAZE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE CONTAINS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND ITS ONLY IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE TO COOL THE
AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST
INLAND COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND TAP INTO A
RELATIVELY HIGH PW MOISTURE PLUME ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED DOWNWARD DRIFT
IN TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOS GENERALLY FORECASTS
SLIGHT WARMING. PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
FOR TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH
BAY COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES INLAND. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST...IT IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY MAY ALLOW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO TOTAL MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY. THE GFS MOVES AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. THE GEM AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FORMATION
OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER CA WHICH WILL THEN MEANDER NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THAT PRECIP IS FORECAST TO FALL TO OUR EAST
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEEKEND RAIN IN OUR AREA APPEARS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED IS RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN WARMING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO
ADVANCED BY THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES WOULD
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER
AREA TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z-18Z
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY AROUND 1500 FT)
CONTINUES TO DEEPENED AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS FILLING IN OVER THE BAY AREA THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FILL IN OVER KOAK AND OVER THE
APPROACH. KSFO MAY ONLY SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 13Z-17Z.
CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. LIGHT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE OF 10 TO 20
KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BETWEEN
17Z-18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 151230
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
530 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED ALONG
140W. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL GRAZE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE CONTAINS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND ITS ONLY IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE TO COOL THE
AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST
INLAND COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND TAP INTO A
RELATIVELY HIGH PW MOISTURE PLUME ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN TOO
FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED DOWNWARD DRIFT IN
TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOS GENERALLY FORECASTS SLIGHT
WARMING. PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES INLAND. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...IT IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE GOLDEN GATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TOTAL MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

THE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY. THE GFS MOVES AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. THE GEM AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FORMATION
OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER CA WHICH WILL THEN MEANDER NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THAT
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO FALL TO OUR EAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WEEKEND RAIN IN OUR AREA APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED IS RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN WARMING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO ADVANCED BY
THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER
AREA TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z-18Z
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY AROUND 1500 FT)
CONTINUES TO DEEPENED AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS FILLING IN OVER THE BAY AREA THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FILL IN OVER KOAK AND OVER THE
APPROACH. KSFO MAY ONLY SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 13Z-17Z. CLEARING
EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. LIGHT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE OF 10 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BETWEEN
17Z-18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 151230
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
530 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED ALONG
140W. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL GRAZE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE CONTAINS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND ITS ONLY IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE TO COOL THE
AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST
INLAND COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND TAP INTO A
RELATIVELY HIGH PW MOISTURE PLUME ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN TOO
FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED DOWNWARD DRIFT IN
TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOS GENERALLY FORECASTS SLIGHT
WARMING. PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES INLAND. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...IT IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE GOLDEN GATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TOTAL MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

THE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY. THE GFS MOVES AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. THE GEM AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FORMATION
OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER CA WHICH WILL THEN MEANDER NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THAT
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO FALL TO OUR EAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WEEKEND RAIN IN OUR AREA APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED IS RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN WARMING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO ADVANCED BY
THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER
AREA TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z-18Z
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY AROUND 1500 FT)
CONTINUES TO DEEPENED AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS FILLING IN OVER THE BAY AREA THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FILL IN OVER KOAK AND OVER THE
APPROACH. KSFO MAY ONLY SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 13Z-17Z. CLEARING
EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. LIGHT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE OF 10 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BETWEEN
17Z-18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 151047
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
347 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED ALONG
140W. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL GRAZE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE CONTAINS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND ITS ONLY IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE TO COOL THE
AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST
INLAND COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND TAP INTO A
RELATIVELY HIGH PW MOISTURE PLUME ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN TOO
FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED DOWNWARD DRIFT IN
TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOS GENERALLY FORECASTS SLIGHT
WARMING. PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES INLAND. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...IT IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE GOLDEN GATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TOTAL MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

THE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY. THE GFS MOVES AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. THE GEM AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FORMATION
OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER CA WHICH WILL THEN MEANDER NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THAT
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO FALL TO OUR EAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WEEKEND RAIN IN OUR AREA APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED IS RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN WARMING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO ADVANCED BY
THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE MARINE
LAYER HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED TO AROUND 1400 FEET AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE COAST APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AFTER 12Z. CLEARING EXPECTED
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE OF 10 TO
20 KT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z WITH
AN EARLY CLEARING BETWEEN 16Z-17Z EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 151047
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
347 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED ALONG
140W. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL GRAZE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE CONTAINS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND ITS ONLY IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE TO COOL THE
AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST
INLAND COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND TAP INTO A
RELATIVELY HIGH PW MOISTURE PLUME ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN TOO
FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED DOWNWARD DRIFT IN
TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOS GENERALLY FORECASTS SLIGHT
WARMING. PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES INLAND. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...IT IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE GOLDEN GATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TOTAL MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

THE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY. THE GFS MOVES AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. THE GEM AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FORMATION
OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER CA WHICH WILL THEN MEANDER NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THAT
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO FALL TO OUR EAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WEEKEND RAIN IN OUR AREA APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED IS RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN WARMING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO ADVANCED BY
THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE MARINE
LAYER HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED TO AROUND 1400 FEET AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE COAST APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AFTER 12Z. CLEARING EXPECTED
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE OF 10 TO
20 KT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z WITH
AN EARLY CLEARING BETWEEN 16Z-17Z EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 150620
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1120 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MINOR COOLING TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BUT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BAY AREA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR OVER THE REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 MILES WEST OF SAN
FRANCISCO.

A NEW TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EPAC UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVE EAST
TO CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN BAY AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE NEWEST 00Z NAM MODEL SHOWS VERY LIGHT QPF ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT QPF THURSDAY MORNING AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK TO BE LIGHT
GENERALLY UNDER A 1/10 INCH.

PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE REMNANTS OF "ODILE" WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED IS MODERATE TO HIGH. BY NEXT
WEEK THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER CA. THE GEM MODEL DIFFERS IN SOLUTION SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE MARINE
LAYER HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED TO AROUND 1400 FEET AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE COAST APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AFTER 12Z. CLEARING EXPECTED
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE OF 10 TO
20 KT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z WITH
AN EARLY CLEARING BETWEEN 16Z-17Z EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 150620
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1120 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MINOR COOLING TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BUT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BAY AREA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR OVER THE REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 MILES WEST OF SAN
FRANCISCO.

A NEW TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EPAC UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVE EAST
TO CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN BAY AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE NEWEST 00Z NAM MODEL SHOWS VERY LIGHT QPF ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT QPF THURSDAY MORNING AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK TO BE LIGHT
GENERALLY UNDER A 1/10 INCH.

PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE REMNANTS OF "ODILE" WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED IS MODERATE TO HIGH. BY NEXT
WEEK THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER CA. THE GEM MODEL DIFFERS IN SOLUTION SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE MARINE
LAYER HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED TO AROUND 1400 FEET AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE COAST APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AFTER 12Z. CLEARING EXPECTED
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE SEABREEZE OF 10 TO
20 KT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z WITH
AN EARLY CLEARING BETWEEN 16Z-17Z EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 150353
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
853 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MINOR COOLING TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BUT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BAY AREA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR OVER THE REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 MILES WEST OF SAN
FRANCISCO.

A NEW TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EPAC UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVE EAST
TO CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN BAY AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE NEWEST 00Z NAM MODEL SHOWS VERY LIGHT QPF ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT QPF THURSDAY MORNING AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK TO BE LIGHT
GENERALLY UNDER A 1/10 INCH.

PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE REMNANTS OF "ODILE" WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED IS MODERATE TO HIGH. BY NEXT
WEEK THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER CA. THE GEM MODEL DIFFERS IN SOLUTION SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER BAY AREA TERMINALS. MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 05Z
TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER PERSIST AROUND 1000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AFTER 12Z. MODERATE WEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AROUND 05Z. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:05 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 150353
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
853 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MINOR COOLING TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BUT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BAY AREA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR OVER THE REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 MILES WEST OF SAN
FRANCISCO.

A NEW TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EPAC UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVE EAST
TO CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN BAY AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE NEWEST 00Z NAM MODEL SHOWS VERY LIGHT QPF ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT QPF THURSDAY MORNING AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK TO BE LIGHT
GENERALLY UNDER A 1/10 INCH.

PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE REMNANTS OF "ODILE" WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED IS MODERATE TO HIGH. BY NEXT
WEEK THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER CA. THE GEM MODEL DIFFERS IN SOLUTION SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER BAY AREA TERMINALS. MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 05Z
TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER PERSIST AROUND 1000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AFTER 12Z. MODERATE WEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AROUND 05Z. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:05 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 150039
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
539 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MINOR COOLING TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BUT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BAY AREA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST INLAND SITES INDICATING A COOLING TREND
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW CUMULUS BUILD UPS NEAR MT
HAMILTON AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AS
SOME INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH PASSES OVER THE REGION. LATEST
SATELLITE SCANS SHOW THE STRATUS DECK OFF SHORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED
WITH A CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 35N/132W WITH A GENERAL DRY SW FLOW
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT STRATUS REFORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT IT MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO REFORM WITH SST IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE
OCEAN.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT
WITH LESS 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE DISTRICT IN THE MORNING BUT ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA.

ON TUESDAY THE AREA WILL STAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING EARLY SEASON WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO BY WEDS AFTERNOON. OUR
FORECASTS WILL SHOW 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
BAY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN CUT-OFF
OVER THE WATERS WEST OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH SOME VERY LIGHT NORTH
BAY SHOWER CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL JUST BE A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT. ANY NORTH BAY RAIN AT THIS TIME LOOKS ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO NOTHING TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT.

MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE AGREEING THAT THIS LOW WILL THEN GET CUT OFF
AND RETROGRADE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
BEING SLOWLY PUSHED FROM BAJA TOWARDS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO
ARIZONA. THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE INTERESTING TO FOLLOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS EARLIER RUNS WERE TAKING ODILE WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC.

STILL GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER STRONG AND WARM RIDGE BUILDS FOR
THE 8-10 DAY FORECAST TIME FRAME FROM SEPT 22-24TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER BAY AREA TERMINALS. MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 05Z
TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER PERSIST AROUND 1000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AFTER 12Z. MODERATE WEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AROUND 05Z. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:05 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 150039
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
539 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MINOR COOLING TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BUT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BAY AREA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST INLAND SITES INDICATING A COOLING TREND
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW CUMULUS BUILD UPS NEAR MT
HAMILTON AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AS
SOME INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH PASSES OVER THE REGION. LATEST
SATELLITE SCANS SHOW THE STRATUS DECK OFF SHORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED
WITH A CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 35N/132W WITH A GENERAL DRY SW FLOW
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT STRATUS REFORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT IT MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO REFORM WITH SST IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE
OCEAN.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT
WITH LESS 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE DISTRICT IN THE MORNING BUT ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA.

ON TUESDAY THE AREA WILL STAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING EARLY SEASON WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO BY WEDS AFTERNOON. OUR
FORECASTS WILL SHOW 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
BAY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN CUT-OFF
OVER THE WATERS WEST OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH SOME VERY LIGHT NORTH
BAY SHOWER CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL JUST BE A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT. ANY NORTH BAY RAIN AT THIS TIME LOOKS ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO NOTHING TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT.

MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE AGREEING THAT THIS LOW WILL THEN GET CUT OFF
AND RETROGRADE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
BEING SLOWLY PUSHED FROM BAJA TOWARDS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO
ARIZONA. THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE INTERESTING TO FOLLOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS EARLIER RUNS WERE TAKING ODILE WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC.

STILL GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER STRONG AND WARM RIDGE BUILDS FOR
THE 8-10 DAY FORECAST TIME FRAME FROM SEPT 22-24TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER BAY AREA TERMINALS. MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 05Z
TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER PERSIST AROUND 1000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AFTER 12Z. MODERATE WEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AROUND 05Z. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:05 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 142230
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
330 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MINOR COOLING TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BUT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BAY AREA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST INLAND SITES INDICATING A COOLING TREND
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERES ALSO A FEW CUMULUS BUILD UPS NEAR MT
HAMILTON AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AS
SOME INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH PASSES OVER THE REGION. LATEST
SATELLITE SCANS SHOW THE STRATUS DECK OFF SHORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED
WITH A CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 35N/132W WITH A GENERAL DRY SW FLOW
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT STRATUS REFORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT IT MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO REFORM WITH SST IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE
OCEAN.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT
WITH LESS 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE DISTRICT IN THE MORNING BUT ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA.

ON TUESDAY THE AREA WILL STAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING EARLY SEASON WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO BY WEDS AFTERNOON. OUR
FORECASTS WILL SHOW 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
BAY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN CUT-OFF
OVER THE WATERS WEST OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH SOME VERY LIGHT NORTH
BAY SHOWER CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL JUST BE A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT. ANY NORTH BAY RAIN AT THIS TIME LOOKS ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO NOTHING TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT.

MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE AGREEING THAT THIS LOW WILL THEN GET CUT OFF
AND RETROGRADE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
BEING SLOWLY PUSHED FROM BAJA TOWARDS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO
ARIZONA. THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE INTERESTING TO FOLLOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS EARLIER RUNS WERE TAKING ODILE WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC.

STILL GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER STRONG AND WARM RIDGE BUILDS FOR
THE 8-10 DAY FORECAST TIME FRAME FROM SEPT 22-24TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...BURN-OFF OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SURGE CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE MOVING INLAND OVER
THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD BURN-OFF LATER THIS MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE WIND
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT...SHOULD GET ANOTHER AROUND OF LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST...SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE BAY AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS...REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRATUS RETURN MONDAY MORNING APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW. BURN-OFF TIME ON MONDAY
COULD BE A BIT LATER AS A RESULT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO BURN-OFF
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER KMRY...GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
LOW CLOUD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING WITH LIKELY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS LIKELY TO BURN-OFF
LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 142230
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
330 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MINOR COOLING TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BUT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BAY AREA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST INLAND SITES INDICATING A COOLING TREND
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERES ALSO A FEW CUMULUS BUILD UPS NEAR MT
HAMILTON AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AS
SOME INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH PASSES OVER THE REGION. LATEST
SATELLITE SCANS SHOW THE STRATUS DECK OFF SHORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED
WITH A CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 35N/132W WITH A GENERAL DRY SW FLOW
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT STRATUS REFORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT IT MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO REFORM WITH SST IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE
OCEAN.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT
WITH LESS 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE DISTRICT IN THE MORNING BUT ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA.

ON TUESDAY THE AREA WILL STAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING EARLY SEASON WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO BY WEDS AFTERNOON. OUR
FORECASTS WILL SHOW 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
BAY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN CUT-OFF
OVER THE WATERS WEST OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH SOME VERY LIGHT NORTH
BAY SHOWER CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL JUST BE A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT. ANY NORTH BAY RAIN AT THIS TIME LOOKS ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO NOTHING TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT.

MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE AGREEING THAT THIS LOW WILL THEN GET CUT OFF
AND RETROGRADE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
BEING SLOWLY PUSHED FROM BAJA TOWARDS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO
ARIZONA. THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE INTERESTING TO FOLLOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS EARLIER RUNS WERE TAKING ODILE WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC.

STILL GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER STRONG AND WARM RIDGE BUILDS FOR
THE 8-10 DAY FORECAST TIME FRAME FROM SEPT 22-24TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...BURN-OFF OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SURGE CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE MOVING INLAND OVER
THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD BURN-OFF LATER THIS MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE WIND
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT...SHOULD GET ANOTHER AROUND OF LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST...SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE BAY AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS...REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRATUS RETURN MONDAY MORNING APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW. BURN-OFF TIME ON MONDAY
COULD BE A BIT LATER AS A RESULT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO BURN-OFF
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER KMRY...GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
LOW CLOUD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING WITH LIKELY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS LIKELY TO BURN-OFF
LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 141752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1052 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
COMMENCES THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. A COOLING TREND
IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:47 AM PDT SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER MONTEREY/SAN BENITO
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MARINE LAYER IS ERODING
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A DEPTH STILL AT JUST OVER 1000 FEET. IN
GENERAL 24 HOUR TRENDS IN THE HILLS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. STILL EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON FOR INLAND AREAS BUT DEFINITELY COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

OTHER ITEMS WERE MONITORING ARE MOISTURE INFILTRATION FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH ANY CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SIERRA AND NE
CALIFORNIA.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG EARLY SEASON FRONT APPROACHES NORCAL BY
WEDS BUT LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTHWARD. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND THAT LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.
WILL LOOK OVER 12Z GFS AND ECMWF AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS LAST
EVENING INDICATED A COOLING TREND WOULD GET UNDERWAY TODAY...MORE
RECENT DATA SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH HAD BEGUN
TO DEEPEN LAST EVENING...HAS SINCE COMPRESSED TO A DEPTH OF NOT MUCH
MORE THAN 1000 FEET AT FORT ORD. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE. SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOO. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PROBABLY WONT OCCUR EARLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE. THIS MEANS ONE MORE
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

AN INLAND COOLING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHWESTERN CA. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALONG 140W AND ONLY
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
FLOWING EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THIS PLUME ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
AT RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

THE GFS AND GEM MODELS INDICATE ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...AND THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MUCH
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH ITS TWO MOST RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE CA COAST LATE THURSDAY...AND
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS CUTOFF LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO TAP INTO REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND THEN PROCEED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. DO
NOT YET FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND
BASED ON THE ECMWF ALONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO LIKE THIS. SO FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...BURN-OFF OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SURGE CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE MOVING INLAND OVER
THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD BURN-OFF LATER THIS MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE WIND
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT...SHOULD GET ANOTHER AROUND OF LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST...SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE BAY AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS...REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRATUS RETURN MONDAY MORNING APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW. BURN-OFF TIME ON MONDAY
COULD BE A BIT LATER AS A RESULT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO BURN-OFF
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER KMRY...GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
LOW CLOUD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING WITH LIKELY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS LIKELY TO BURN-OFF
LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 141752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1052 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
COMMENCES THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. A COOLING TREND
IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:47 AM PDT SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER MONTEREY/SAN BENITO
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MARINE LAYER IS ERODING
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A DEPTH STILL AT JUST OVER 1000 FEET. IN
GENERAL 24 HOUR TRENDS IN THE HILLS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. STILL EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON FOR INLAND AREAS BUT DEFINITELY COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

OTHER ITEMS WERE MONITORING ARE MOISTURE INFILTRATION FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH ANY CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SIERRA AND NE
CALIFORNIA.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG EARLY SEASON FRONT APPROACHES NORCAL BY
WEDS BUT LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTHWARD. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND THAT LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.
WILL LOOK OVER 12Z GFS AND ECMWF AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS LAST
EVENING INDICATED A COOLING TREND WOULD GET UNDERWAY TODAY...MORE
RECENT DATA SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH HAD BEGUN
TO DEEPEN LAST EVENING...HAS SINCE COMPRESSED TO A DEPTH OF NOT MUCH
MORE THAN 1000 FEET AT FORT ORD. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE. SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOO. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PROBABLY WONT OCCUR EARLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE. THIS MEANS ONE MORE
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

AN INLAND COOLING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHWESTERN CA. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALONG 140W AND ONLY
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
FLOWING EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THIS PLUME ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
AT RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

THE GFS AND GEM MODELS INDICATE ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...AND THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MUCH
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH ITS TWO MOST RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE CA COAST LATE THURSDAY...AND
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS CUTOFF LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO TAP INTO REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND THEN PROCEED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. DO
NOT YET FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND
BASED ON THE ECMWF ALONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO LIKE THIS. SO FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...BURN-OFF OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SURGE CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE MOVING INLAND OVER
THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD BURN-OFF LATER THIS MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE WIND
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT...SHOULD GET ANOTHER AROUND OF LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST...SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE BAY AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS...REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRATUS RETURN MONDAY MORNING APPEARS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW. BURN-OFF TIME ON MONDAY
COULD BE A BIT LATER AS A RESULT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO BURN-OFF
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER KMRY...GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
LOW CLOUD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING WITH LIKELY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS LIKELY TO BURN-OFF
LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 141647
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
COMMENCES THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. A COOLING TREND
IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:47 AM PDT SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER MONTEREY/SAN BENITO
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MARINE LAYER IS ERODING
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A DEPTH STILL AT JUST OVER 1000 FEET. IN
GENERAL 24 HOUR TRENDS IN THE HILLS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. STILL EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON FOR INLAND AREAS BUT DEFINITELY COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

OTHER ITEMS WERE MONITORING ARE MOISTURE INFILTRATION FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH ANY CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SIERRA AND NE
CALIFORNIA.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG EARLY SEASON FRONT APPROACHES NORCAL BY
WEDS BUT LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTHWARD. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND THAT LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.
WILL LOOK OVER 12Z GFS AND ECMWF AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS LAST
EVENING INDICATED A COOLING TREND WOULD GET UNDERWAY TODAY...MORE
RECENT DATA SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH HAD BEGUN
TO DEEPEN LAST EVENING...HAS SINCE COMPRESSED TO A DEPTH OF NOT MUCH
MORE THAN 1000 FEET AT FORT ORD. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE. SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOO. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PROBABLY WONT OCCUR EARLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE. THIS MEANS ONE MORE
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

AN INLAND COOLING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHWESTERN CA. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALONG 140W AND ONLY
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
FLOWING EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THIS PLUME ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
AT RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

THE GFS AND GEM MODELS INDICATE ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...AND THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MUCH
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH ITS TWO MOST RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE CA COAST LATE THURSDAY...AND
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS CUTOFF LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO TAP INTO REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND THEN PROCEED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. DO
NOT YET FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND
BASED ON THE ECMWF ALONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO LIKE THIS. SO FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS
INDICATING A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN AT
THIS HOUR YESTERDAY BUT THE LOCAL CIGS ARE SIMILAR WITH HALFMOON
BAY REPORTING OVC008. THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST STRETCHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL
AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR BKN-OVC012 IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
1700Z AT WHICH POINT VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING TO 28 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH VFR BY AROUND 1700Z. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 141647
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
COMMENCES THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. A COOLING TREND
IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:47 AM PDT SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER MONTEREY/SAN BENITO
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MARINE LAYER IS ERODING
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A DEPTH STILL AT JUST OVER 1000 FEET. IN
GENERAL 24 HOUR TRENDS IN THE HILLS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. STILL EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON FOR INLAND AREAS BUT DEFINITELY COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

OTHER ITEMS WERE MONITORING ARE MOISTURE INFILTRATION FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH ANY CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SIERRA AND NE
CALIFORNIA.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG EARLY SEASON FRONT APPROACHES NORCAL BY
WEDS BUT LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN
FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTHWARD. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND THAT LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.
WILL LOOK OVER 12Z GFS AND ECMWF AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS LAST
EVENING INDICATED A COOLING TREND WOULD GET UNDERWAY TODAY...MORE
RECENT DATA SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH HAD BEGUN
TO DEEPEN LAST EVENING...HAS SINCE COMPRESSED TO A DEPTH OF NOT MUCH
MORE THAN 1000 FEET AT FORT ORD. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE. SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOO. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PROBABLY WONT OCCUR EARLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE. THIS MEANS ONE MORE
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

AN INLAND COOLING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHWESTERN CA. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALONG 140W AND ONLY
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
FLOWING EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THIS PLUME ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
AT RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

THE GFS AND GEM MODELS INDICATE ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...AND THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MUCH
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH ITS TWO MOST RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE CA COAST LATE THURSDAY...AND
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS CUTOFF LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO TAP INTO REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND THEN PROCEED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. DO
NOT YET FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND
BASED ON THE ECMWF ALONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO LIKE THIS. SO FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS
INDICATING A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN AT
THIS HOUR YESTERDAY BUT THE LOCAL CIGS ARE SIMILAR WITH HALFMOON
BAY REPORTING OVC008. THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST STRETCHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL
AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR BKN-OVC012 IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
1700Z AT WHICH POINT VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING TO 28 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH VFR BY AROUND 1700Z. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 141350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
650 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INLAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST ALONG
WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG. A COOLING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS LAST
EVENING INDICATED A COOLING TREND WOULD GET UNDERWAY TODAY...MORE
RECENT DATA SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH HAD BEGUN
TO DEEPEN LAST EVENING...HAS SINCE COMPRESSED TO A DEPTH OF NOT MUCH
MORE THAN 1000 FEET AT FORT ORD. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE. SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOO. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PROBABLY WONT OCCUR EARLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE. THIS MEANS ONE MORE
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

AN INLAND COOLING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHWESTERN CA. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALONG 140W AND ONLY
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
FLOWING EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THIS PLUME ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
AT RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

THE GFS AND GEM MODELS INDICATE ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...AND THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MUCH
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH ITS TWO MOST RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE CA COAST LATE THURSDAY...AND
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS CUTOFF LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO TAP INTO REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND THEN PROCEED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. DO
NOT YET FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND
BASED ON THE ECMWF ALONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO LIKE THIS. SO FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS
INDICATING A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN AT
THIS HOUR YESTERDAY BUT THE LOCAL CIGS ARE SIMILAR WITH HALFMOON
BAY REPORTING OVC008. THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST STRETCHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL
AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR BKN-OVC012 IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
1700Z AT WHICH POINT VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING TO 28 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH VFR BY AROUND 1700Z. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 141350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
650 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INLAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST ALONG
WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG. A COOLING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS LAST
EVENING INDICATED A COOLING TREND WOULD GET UNDERWAY TODAY...MORE
RECENT DATA SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH HAD BEGUN
TO DEEPEN LAST EVENING...HAS SINCE COMPRESSED TO A DEPTH OF NOT MUCH
MORE THAN 1000 FEET AT FORT ORD. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE. SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOO. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PROBABLY WONT OCCUR EARLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE. THIS MEANS ONE MORE
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

AN INLAND COOLING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHWESTERN CA. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALONG 140W AND ONLY
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
FLOWING EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THIS PLUME ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
AT RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

THE GFS AND GEM MODELS INDICATE ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...AND THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MUCH
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH ITS TWO MOST RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE CA COAST LATE THURSDAY...AND
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS CUTOFF LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO TAP INTO REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND THEN PROCEED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. DO
NOT YET FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND
BASED ON THE ECMWF ALONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO LIKE THIS. SO FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS
INDICATING A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN AT
THIS HOUR YESTERDAY BUT THE LOCAL CIGS ARE SIMILAR WITH HALFMOON
BAY REPORTING OVC008. THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST STRETCHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL
AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR BKN-OVC012 IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
1700Z AT WHICH POINT VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING TO 28 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH VFR BY AROUND 1700Z. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 141158
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INLAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST ALONG
WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG. A COOLING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS LAST
EVENING INDICATED A COOLING TREND WOULD GET UNDERWAY TODAY...MORE
RECENT DATA SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH HAD BEGUN
TO DEEPEN LAST EVENING...HAS SINCE COMPRESSED TO A DEPTH OF NOT MUCH
MORE THAN 1000 FEET AT FORT ORD. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE. SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOO. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PROBABLY WONT OCCUR EARLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE. THIS MEANS ONE MORE
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

AN INLAND COOLING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHWESTERN CA. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALONG 140W AND ONLY
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
FLOWING EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THIS PLUME ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
AT RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

THE GFS AND GEM MODELS INDICATE ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...AND THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MUCH
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH ITS TWO MOST RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE CA COAST LATE THURSDAY...AND
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS CUTOFF LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO TAP INTO REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND THEN PROCEED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. DO
NOT YET FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND
BASED ON THE ECMWF ALONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO LIKE THIS. SO FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:57 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS
INDICATING A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN AT
THIS HOUR YESTERDAY BUT THE LOCAL CIGS ARE SIMILAR WITH HALFMOON
BAY REPORTING OVC006. THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST STRETCHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL
AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND KSFO.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING TO 28 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH VFR BY AROUND 1700Z. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 141158
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INLAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST ALONG
WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG. A COOLING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS LAST
EVENING INDICATED A COOLING TREND WOULD GET UNDERWAY TODAY...MORE
RECENT DATA SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH HAD BEGUN
TO DEEPEN LAST EVENING...HAS SINCE COMPRESSED TO A DEPTH OF NOT MUCH
MORE THAN 1000 FEET AT FORT ORD. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE. SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOO. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PROBABLY WONT OCCUR EARLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE. THIS MEANS ONE MORE
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

AN INLAND COOLING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHWESTERN CA. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALONG 140W AND ONLY
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
FLOWING EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THIS PLUME ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
AT RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

THE GFS AND GEM MODELS INDICATE ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...AND THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MUCH
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH ITS TWO MOST RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE CA COAST LATE THURSDAY...AND
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS CUTOFF LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO TAP INTO REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND THEN PROCEED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. DO
NOT YET FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND
BASED ON THE ECMWF ALONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO LIKE THIS. SO FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:57 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS
INDICATING A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN AT
THIS HOUR YESTERDAY BUT THE LOCAL CIGS ARE SIMILAR WITH HALFMOON
BAY REPORTING OVC006. THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST STRETCHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL
AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND KSFO.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING TO 28 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH VFR BY AROUND 1700Z. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 141048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
348 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INLAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST ALONG
WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG. A COOLING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS LAST
EVENING INDICATED A COOLING TREND WOULD GET UNDERWAY TODAY...MORE
RECENT DATA SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH HAD BEGUN
TO DEEPEN LAST EVENING...HAS SINCE COMPRESSED TO A DEPTH OF NOT MUCH
MORE THAN 1000 FEET AT FORT ORD. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE. SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOO. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS PROBABLY WONT OCCUR EARLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR PERSISTENCE. THIS MEANS ONE MORE
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

AN INLAND COOLING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHWESTERN CA. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALONG 140W AND ONLY
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
FLOWING EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THIS PLUME ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
AT RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MOVE INLAND.

THE GFS AND GEM MODELS INDICATE ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...AND THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MUCH
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH ITS TWO MOST RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE CA COAST LATE THURSDAY...AND
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS CUTOFF LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO TAP INTO REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND THEN PROCEED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. DO
NOT YET FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND
BASED ON THE ECMWF ALONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE NONE OF THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO LIKE THIS. SO FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:17 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING
OVER THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TONIGHT WILL BRIEFLY TURN
BACK TO RIDGING ON SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TONIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST TO
RETURN BY 17Z-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 140517
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1017 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS AND ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. A COOLING
TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. RAIN
COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE BAJA COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN THE LIVERMORE VALLEY AND TO 105 AT
PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW KEPT COASTAL AREAS SEASONABLY COOL.

FORT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS
INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED FEET OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...A
LOOK AT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATES A TREND TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...POINT
TOWARDS AT LEAST SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MARINE AIR
LIKELY WON`T MAKE IT WELL INLAND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...SO LOOK
FOR ONE MORE WARM DAY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.

MORE PRONOUNCED AND WIDESPREAD COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTED OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE
AND GRAZES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DECIDING IF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AROUND MIDWEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY TAPPING
INTO A RICH SUPPLY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OF HAWAII...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUT NEAR 28N/143W GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE ODILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT PHASE WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH EARLY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. BUT IN ANY CASE...THERE MAY
VERY WELL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CARRIED ALONG WITH THE TROUGH FROM
NORTH OF HAWAII TO PRODUCE AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. WILL REASSESS AFTER THE FULL COMPLIMENT OF 00Z MODEL DATA
HAS ARRIVED AND PERHAPS ADD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:17 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING
OVER THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TONIGHT WILL BRIEFLY TURN
BACK TO RIDGING ON SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TONIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST TO
RETURN BY 17Z-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:53 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 140517
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1017 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS AND ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. A COOLING
TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. RAIN
COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE BAJA COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN THE LIVERMORE VALLEY AND TO 105 AT
PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW KEPT COASTAL AREAS SEASONABLY COOL.

FORT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS
INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED FEET OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...A
LOOK AT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATES A TREND TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...POINT
TOWARDS AT LEAST SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MARINE AIR
LIKELY WON`T MAKE IT WELL INLAND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...SO LOOK
FOR ONE MORE WARM DAY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.

MORE PRONOUNCED AND WIDESPREAD COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTED OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE
AND GRAZES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DECIDING IF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AROUND MIDWEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY TAPPING
INTO A RICH SUPPLY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OF HAWAII...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUT NEAR 28N/143W GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE ODILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT PHASE WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH EARLY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. BUT IN ANY CASE...THERE MAY
VERY WELL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CARRIED ALONG WITH THE TROUGH FROM
NORTH OF HAWAII TO PRODUCE AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. WILL REASSESS AFTER THE FULL COMPLIMENT OF 00Z MODEL DATA
HAS ARRIVED AND PERHAPS ADD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:17 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING
OVER THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TONIGHT WILL BRIEFLY TURN
BACK TO RIDGING ON SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TONIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST TO
RETURN BY 17Z-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:53 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 140341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS AND ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. A COOLING
TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. RAIN
COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE BAJA COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN THE LIVERMORE VALLEY AND TO 105 AT
PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW KEPT COASTAL AREAS SEASONABLY COOL.

FORT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS
INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED FEET OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...A
LOOK AT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATES A TREND TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...POINT
TOWARDS AT LEAST SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MARINE AIR
LIKELY WON`T MAKE IT WELL INLAND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...SO LOOK
FOR ONE MORE WARM DAY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.

MORE PRONOUNCED AND WIDESPREAD COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTED OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE
AND GRAZES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DECIDING IF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AROUND MIDWEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY TAPPING
INTO A RICH SUPPLY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OF HAWAII...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUT NEAR 28N/143W GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE ODILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT PHASE WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH EARLY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. BUT IN ANY CASE...THERE MAY
VERY WELL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CARRIED ALONG WITH THE TROUGH FROM
NORTH OF HAWAII TO PRODUCE AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. WILL REASSESS AFTER THE FULL COMPLIMENT OF 00Z MODEL DATA
HAS ARRIVED AND PERHAPS ADD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER IS APPROXIMATELY
1600 FEET DEEP. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WIND 15 TO 25 KT TIL 04Z. CONFIDENCE
HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TIL 04Z-05Z. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:53 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 140341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS AND ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. A COOLING
TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. RAIN
COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE BAJA COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN THE LIVERMORE VALLEY AND TO 105 AT
PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW KEPT COASTAL AREAS SEASONABLY COOL.

FORT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS
INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED FEET OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...A
LOOK AT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATES A TREND TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...POINT
TOWARDS AT LEAST SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MARINE AIR
LIKELY WON`T MAKE IT WELL INLAND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...SO LOOK
FOR ONE MORE WARM DAY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.

MORE PRONOUNCED AND WIDESPREAD COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTED OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE
AND GRAZES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DECIDING IF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AROUND MIDWEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY TAPPING
INTO A RICH SUPPLY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OF HAWAII...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUT NEAR 28N/143W GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE ODILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT PHASE WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH EARLY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. BUT IN ANY CASE...THERE MAY
VERY WELL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CARRIED ALONG WITH THE TROUGH FROM
NORTH OF HAWAII TO PRODUCE AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. WILL REASSESS AFTER THE FULL COMPLIMENT OF 00Z MODEL DATA
HAS ARRIVED AND PERHAPS ADD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER IS APPROXIMATELY
1600 FEET DEEP. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WIND 15 TO 25 KT TIL 04Z. CONFIDENCE
HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TIL 04Z-05Z. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:53 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 140022
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
522 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED SUNNY AND WARM AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN CONTINUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
TO THE COAST WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM
IN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH LOW 100S SCATTERED
ACROSS THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE PINNACLES IS
CURRENTLY OUR HOT SPORT WITH A READING OF 105 DEGREES THIS PAST
HOUR. ALONG THE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH 70S TO NEAR 80 AROUND THE BAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN COOLING DOWN SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL NOT ONLY
INTRODUCE A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION BUT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 40N/140W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY HOWEVER ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WHILE THE GEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT. THE 18Z GFS AND THE 12Z GEM ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED ON THE 12Z RUN AND IS NOW
SHOWING AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ON THURSDAY JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE
KICKING OUT TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY. A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE 12Z GFS WAS SHOWING EARLIER TODAY. WITH THIS MUCH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE PRECIP SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE MODELS ARE
KEEPING THAT PRECIP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE JET STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LOOKING MUCH STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
5-10 DAYS WHILE THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THE
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF BAJA. LONG RANGE TRENDS STILL SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND OF SEPT 21/22. AT THE VERY LEAST ITS NICE TO SEE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER IS APPROXIMATELY
1600 FEET DEEP. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WIND 15 TO 25 KT TIL 04Z. CONFIDENCE
HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TIL 04Z-05Z. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:53 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 140022
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
522 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED SUNNY AND WARM AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN CONTINUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
TO THE COAST WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM
IN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH LOW 100S SCATTERED
ACROSS THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE PINNACLES IS
CURRENTLY OUR HOT SPORT WITH A READING OF 105 DEGREES THIS PAST
HOUR. ALONG THE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH 70S TO NEAR 80 AROUND THE BAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN COOLING DOWN SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL NOT ONLY
INTRODUCE A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION BUT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 40N/140W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY HOWEVER ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WHILE THE GEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT. THE 18Z GFS AND THE 12Z GEM ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED ON THE 12Z RUN AND IS NOW
SHOWING AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ON THURSDAY JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE
KICKING OUT TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY. A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE 12Z GFS WAS SHOWING EARLIER TODAY. WITH THIS MUCH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE PRECIP SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE MODELS ARE
KEEPING THAT PRECIP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE JET STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LOOKING MUCH STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
5-10 DAYS WHILE THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THE
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF BAJA. LONG RANGE TRENDS STILL SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND OF SEPT 21/22. AT THE VERY LEAST ITS NICE TO SEE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...ONSHORE WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER IS APPROXIMATELY
1600 FEET DEEP. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WIND 15 TO 25 KT TIL 04Z. CONFIDENCE
HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TIL 04Z-05Z. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:53 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 132216
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
316 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED SUNNY AND WARM AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN CONTINUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
TO THE COAST WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM
IN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH LOW 100S SCATTERED
ACROSS THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE PINNACLES IS
CURRENTLY OUR HOT SPORT WITH A READING OF 105 DEGREES THIS PAST
HOUR. ALONG THE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH 70S TO NEAR 80 AROUND THE BAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN COOLING DOWN SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL NOT ONLY
INTRODUCE A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION BUT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 40N/140W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY HOWEVER ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WHILE THE GEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT. THE 18Z GFS AND THE 12Z GEM ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED ON THE 12Z RUN AND IS NOW
SHOWING AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ON THURSDAY JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE
KICKING OUT TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY. A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE 12Z GFS WAS SHOWING EARLIER TODAY. WITH THIS MUCH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE PRECIP SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE MODELS ARE
KEEPING THAT PRECIP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE JET STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LOOKING MUCH STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
5-10 DAYS WHILE THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THE
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF BAJA. LONG RANGE TRENDS STILL SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND OF SEPT 21/22. AT THE VERY LEAST ITS NICE TO SEE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WHILE THE LOWER CEILINGS
HAVE RETREATED TO THE COAST...NO LONGER IMPACTING THE MAJOR
TERMINALS. SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY...LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
CEILINGS OUT OF KSFO TAF. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS BRIEFING IMPACTING THE TERMINAL SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. CONFIDENCE HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO. LOW CEILINGS MORE LIKELY
OVER THE APPROACH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA-BREEZE. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND 04Z SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:53 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 132216
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
316 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED SUNNY AND WARM AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN CONTINUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
TO THE COAST WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM
IN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH LOW 100S SCATTERED
ACROSS THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE PINNACLES IS
CURRENTLY OUR HOT SPORT WITH A READING OF 105 DEGREES THIS PAST
HOUR. ALONG THE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH 70S TO NEAR 80 AROUND THE BAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN COOLING DOWN SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL NOT ONLY
INTRODUCE A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION BUT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 40N/140W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY HOWEVER ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WHILE THE GEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT. THE 18Z GFS AND THE 12Z GEM ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED ON THE 12Z RUN AND IS NOW
SHOWING AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ON THURSDAY JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE
KICKING OUT TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY. A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE 12Z GFS WAS SHOWING EARLIER TODAY. WITH THIS MUCH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE PRECIP SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE MODELS ARE
KEEPING THAT PRECIP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE JET STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LOOKING MUCH STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
5-10 DAYS WHILE THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THE
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF BAJA. LONG RANGE TRENDS STILL SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND OF SEPT 21/22. AT THE VERY LEAST ITS NICE TO SEE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WHILE THE LOWER CEILINGS
HAVE RETREATED TO THE COAST...NO LONGER IMPACTING THE MAJOR
TERMINALS. SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY...LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
CEILINGS OUT OF KSFO TAF. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS BRIEFING IMPACTING THE TERMINAL SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. CONFIDENCE HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO. LOW CEILINGS MORE LIKELY
OVER THE APPROACH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA-BREEZE. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND 04Z SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:53 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 131748
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1048 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED SUNNY AND WARM AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN CONTINUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE MARINE LAYER
CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY AT 1400 FEET THIS MORNING PER THE FORT
ORD PROFILER. LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR TO THE COAST MAKING WAY FOR A SUNNY WARM DAY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 90S WITH A FEW 100S SCATTERED ACROSS THE WARMEST
INLAND VALLEYS. ALONG THE COAST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S WITH 80S EXPECTED AROUND THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE A COOLER AIRMASS
TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THESE
WILL COMBINE RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER LOW (APPROX 140W) EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS DEPICT SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY HOWEVER ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. MODELS HOWEVER HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS. THE EURO
REMAINS THE "WETTER" SOLUTION AND DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT TO
STEADILY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS... EITHER CUTTING OFF THE LOW NEAR THE COAST
WHERE IT MEANDERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK OR KEEPING THE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AND
LIFTING IT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HOPEFULLY THE NEXT MODEL RUN
WILL BE MORE INSIGHTFUL. IN THE MEANTIME WILL NOT MAKE ANY LARGE
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE PRECIP SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE MODELS ARE
KEEPING THAT PRECIP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE JET STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LOOKING MUCH STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
5-10 DAYS WHILE THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THE
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF BAJA. LONG RANGE TRENDS STILL SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND OF SEPT 21/22. AT THE VERY LEAST ITS NICE TO SEE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WHILE THE LOWER CEILINGS
HAVE RETREATED TO THE COAST...NO LONGER IMPACTING THE MAJOR
TERMINALS. SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY...LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
CEILINGS OUT OF KSFO TAF. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS BRIEFING IMPACTING THE TERMINAL SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. CONFIDENCE HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO. LOW CEILINGS MORE LIKELY
OVER THE APPROACH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA-BREEZE. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND 04Z SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 131748
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1048 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED SUNNY AND WARM AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN CONTINUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE MARINE LAYER
CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY AT 1400 FEET THIS MORNING PER THE FORT
ORD PROFILER. LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR TO THE COAST MAKING WAY FOR A SUNNY WARM DAY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 90S WITH A FEW 100S SCATTERED ACROSS THE WARMEST
INLAND VALLEYS. ALONG THE COAST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S WITH 80S EXPECTED AROUND THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE A COOLER AIRMASS
TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THESE
WILL COMBINE RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER LOW (APPROX 140W) EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS DEPICT SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY HOWEVER ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. MODELS HOWEVER HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS. THE EURO
REMAINS THE "WETTER" SOLUTION AND DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT TO
STEADILY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS... EITHER CUTTING OFF THE LOW NEAR THE COAST
WHERE IT MEANDERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK OR KEEPING THE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AND
LIFTING IT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HOPEFULLY THE NEXT MODEL RUN
WILL BE MORE INSIGHTFUL. IN THE MEANTIME WILL NOT MAKE ANY LARGE
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE PRECIP SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE MODELS ARE
KEEPING THAT PRECIP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE JET STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LOOKING MUCH STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
5-10 DAYS WHILE THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THE
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF BAJA. LONG RANGE TRENDS STILL SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND OF SEPT 21/22. AT THE VERY LEAST ITS NICE TO SEE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WHILE THE LOWER CEILINGS
HAVE RETREATED TO THE COAST...NO LONGER IMPACTING THE MAJOR
TERMINALS. SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY...LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
CEILINGS OUT OF KSFO TAF. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS BRIEFING IMPACTING THE TERMINAL SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE REACHING 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. CONFIDENCE HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO. LOW CEILINGS MORE LIKELY
OVER THE APPROACH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA-BREEZE. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND 04Z SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
AND TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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