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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301526
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
826 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:25 AM PDT THURSDAY...LATEST MODELS JUST IN
HAVE GREATLY BACKED OFF ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW SO MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST AND IF POPS NEED TO BE REDUCED. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
COOLER TEMPS TODAY DUE TO STRONGER WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT PLUS
A MARINE LAYER NOW AROUND 1750 FEET. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MARINE LAYER IS A LITTLE DEEPER THIS
MORNING WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING A DEPTH OF AROUND 1500
FEET...WITH CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF AROUND 700-1000 FEET PER
SATELLITE CLOUD LAYER ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH STRATUS EXTENDING INTO THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE INLAND AREAS OF SONOMA AND
MARIN COUNTIES....AND WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S
INLAND...WITH THE WARMEST AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH TOWARD OREGON. ONSHORE FLOW IS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL AND PROFILERS PUT THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500
FEET. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PUSHED INLAND. THINK
THE STRATUS DECK IS RATHER THIN SO AN EARLIER BURN SEEMS MORE
LIKELY. EARLY RUN OF THE STRATUS MODEL PUSH CLEARING OVER THE
APPROACH AT 1730Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY. LOWER CIGS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAY AND HIGHER CIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BAY. EXPECT CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE 16-17Z PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY WITH
CLEARING AROUND 17-18Z...POSS 19Z AT KMRY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH AN
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...A MARGINALLY ENERGETIC
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DOWN AND THE
PERIOD IS NOW 15 SECONDS. NO BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED...BUT A FEW BEACH MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. USE CAUTION IF YOU HEAD TO THE BEACH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING ONES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM INLAND AREAS. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS A
LITTLE DEEPER THIS MORNING WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING A
DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF AROUND
700-1000 FEET PER SATELLITE CLOUD LAYER ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH STRATUS EXTENDING
INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE INLAND AREAS OF
SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES....AND WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S
INLAND...WITH THE WARMEST AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH TOWARD OREGON. ONSHORE FLOW IS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL AND PROFILERS PUT THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500
FEET. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PUSHED INLAND. THINK
THE STRATUS DECK IS RATHER THIN SO AN EARLIER BURN SEEMS MORE
LIKELY. EARLY RUN OF THE STRATUS MODEL PUSH CLEARING OVER THE
APPROACH AT 1730Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY. LOWER CIGS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAY AND HIGHER CIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BAY. EXPECT CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE 16-17Z PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY WITH
CLEARING AROUND 17-18Z...POSS 19Z AT KMRY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH AN
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...A MARGINALLY ENERGETIC
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DOWN AND THE
PERIOD IS NOW 15 SECONDS. NO BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED...BUT A FEW BEACH MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. USE CAUTION IF YOU HEAD TO THE BEACH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING ONES.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM INLAND AREAS. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS A
LITTLE DEEPER THIS MORNING WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING A
DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF AROUND
700-1000 FEET PER SATELLITE CLOUD LAYER ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH STRATUS EXTENDING
INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE INLAND AREAS OF
SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES....AND WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S
INLAND...WITH THE WARMEST AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH TOWARD OREGON. ONSHORE FLOW IS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL AND PROFILERS PUT THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500
FEET. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PUSHED INLAND. THINK
THE STRATUS DECK IS RATHER THIN SO AN EARLIER BURN SEEMS MORE
LIKELY. EARLY RUN OF THE STRATUS MODEL PUSH CLEARING OVER THE
APPROACH AT 1730Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY. LOWER CIGS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAY AND HIGHER CIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BAY. EXPECT CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE 16-17Z PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY WITH
CLEARING AROUND 17-18Z...POSS 19Z AT KMRY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH AN
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...A MARGINALLY ENERGETIC
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DOWN AND THE
PERIOD IS NOW 15 SECONDS. NO BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED...BUT A FEW BEACH MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. USE CAUTION IF YOU HEAD TO THE BEACH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING ONES.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM INLAND AREAS. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS A
LITTLE DEEPER THIS MORNING WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING A
DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF AROUND
700-1000 FEET PER SATELLITE CLOUD LAYER ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH STRATUS EXTENDING
INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE INLAND AREAS OF
SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES....AND WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S
INLAND...WITH THE WARMEST AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH TOWARD OREGON. ONSHORE FLOW IS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL AND PROFILERS PUT THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500
FEET. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PUSHED INLAND. THINK
THE STRATUS DECK IS RATHER THIN SO AN EARLIER BURN SEEMS MORE
LIKELY. EARLY RUN OF THE STRATUS MODEL PUSH CLEARING OVER THE
APPROACH AT 1730Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY. LOWER CIGS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAY AND HIGHER CIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BAY. EXPECT CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE 16-17Z PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY WITH
CLEARING AROUND 17-18Z...POSS 19Z AT KMRY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH AN
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...A MARGINALLY ENERGETIC
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DOWN AND THE
PERIOD IS NOW 15 SECONDS. NO BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED...BUT A FEW BEACH MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. USE CAUTION IF YOU HEAD TO THE BEACH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING ONES.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 301134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM INLAND AREAS. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS A
LITTLE DEEPER THIS MORNING WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING A
DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF AROUND
700-1000 FEET PER SATELLITE CLOUD LAYER ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH STRATUS EXTENDING
INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE INLAND AREAS OF
SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES....AND WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S
INLAND...WITH THE WARMEST AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH TOWARD OREGON. ONSHORE FLOW IS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL AND PROFILERS PUT THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500
FEET. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PUSHED INLAND. THINK
THE STRATUS DECK IS RATHER THIN SO AN EARLIER BURN SEEMS MORE
LIKELY. EARLY RUN OF THE STRATUS MODEL PUSH CLEARING OVER THE
APPROACH AT 1730Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY. LOWER CIGS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAY AND HIGHER CIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BAY. EXPECT CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE 16-17Z PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY WITH
CLEARING AROUND 17-18Z...POSS 19Z AT KMRY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH AN
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT THURSDAY...A MARGINALLY ENERGETIC
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE SWELL HEIGHTS ARE DOWN AND THE
PERIOD IS NOW 15 SECONDS. NO BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED...BUT A FEW BEACH MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. USE CAUTION IF YOU HEAD TO THE BEACH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING ONES.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 301020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM INLAND AREAS. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS A
LITTLE DEEPER THIS MORNING WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING A
DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF AROUND
700-1000 FEET PER SATELLITE CLOUD LAYER ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH STRATUS EXTENDING
INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE INLAND AREAS OF
SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES....AND WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S
INLAND...WITH THE WARMEST AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRATUS HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 1600 FT MARINE LAYER PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER.
IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR AFTER
07Z. TEMPORARY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THURSDAY
MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH AN
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM INLAND AREAS. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS A
LITTLE DEEPER THIS MORNING WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING A
DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF AROUND
700-1000 FEET PER SATELLITE CLOUD LAYER ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH STRATUS EXTENDING
INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE INLAND AREAS OF
SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES....AND WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S
INLAND...WITH THE WARMEST AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRATUS HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 1600 FT MARINE LAYER PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER.
IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR AFTER
07Z. TEMPORARY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THURSDAY
MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH AN
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM INLAND AREAS. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS A
LITTLE DEEPER THIS MORNING WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING A
DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF AROUND
700-1000 FEET PER SATELLITE CLOUD LAYER ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH STRATUS EXTENDING
INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE INLAND AREAS OF
SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES....AND WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S
INLAND...WITH THE WARMEST AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRATUS HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 1600 FT MARINE LAYER PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER.
IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR AFTER
07Z. TEMPORARY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THURSDAY
MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH AN
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM INLAND AREAS. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS A
LITTLE DEEPER THIS MORNING WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWING A
DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF AROUND
700-1000 FEET PER SATELLITE CLOUD LAYER ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH STRATUS EXTENDING
INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE INLAND AREAS OF
SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES....AND WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S
INLAND...WITH THE WARMEST AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRATUS HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 1600 FT MARINE LAYER PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER.
IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR AFTER
07Z. TEMPORARY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THURSDAY
MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A MIXED SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH AN
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300537
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1037 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE VERY LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS TODAY. FOR
INSTANCE HALF MOON BAY REPORTED A HIGH OF 71 WHILE IT WAS 36
DEGREES HOTTER (107) AT LIVERMORE AIRPORT 38 MILES INLAND. INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WERE QUITE WARM TO HOT
TODAY. THE EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD SOME OF THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT IN SOME CASES EXCEEDED DESERT SW HEAT...THE HIGH
IN LIVERMORE WAS HOTTER THAN 105 IN LAS VEGAS AND 106 IN LAUGHLIN
TODAY. ON THE COAST A SOUTHERLY SURGE SUPPORTED BY A SMX-SFO 1.7
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTHWARD TO THE MENDOCINO COAST. THERE`S
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A LITTLE SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL
PLACES ARE COOLER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE AREA`S
WEATHER IS NOW IN A STATE OF FAIRLY LARGE TRANSITION...THE
TRICKIEST PART NOW IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND EVEN FRIDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH...STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS...INTERACTION WITH THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY, ETC.. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY INLAND...WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AS HOT AS SOME TEMPERATURES GOT TODAY NO
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ONLY ABOUT A 1/2 DOZEN RECORD
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY`S...BUT BASED ON
GUIDANCE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THEM WILL BE OUT OF REACH. RECENT SEA
SURFACE TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE LAST WEEK
OR SO...WHILE MOIST SURFACE TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG.

COMPLICATING MATTERS A BIT MORE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM SOCAL...SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST THURSDAY
THEN SPREADING AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL TOTALS
INTO THE LOWER 30S SPREADS NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW AT FIRST...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TIMING FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
LOOKS GOOD.

BY THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST. OVERALL...ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TO HEMISPHERIC
SCALE THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A FALL OR EVEN
A WINTER-TIME PATTERN IN THE SENSE OF THE LARGE NUMBER OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. DOLORES` REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR INSTANCE WAS QUICKLY SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
BACK ON JULY 20TH...PERSISTENCE OF NW COASTAL WINDS UNTIL THE MOST
RECENT WIND REVERSAL ARE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THIS. IT`S DIFFICULT
TO PLACE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS RECENTLY WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE FLUCTUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRATUS HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 1600 FT MARINE LAYER PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER.
IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR AFTER
07Z. TEMPORARY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THURSDAY
MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300537
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1037 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE VERY LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS TODAY. FOR
INSTANCE HALF MOON BAY REPORTED A HIGH OF 71 WHILE IT WAS 36
DEGREES HOTTER (107) AT LIVERMORE AIRPORT 38 MILES INLAND. INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WERE QUITE WARM TO HOT
TODAY. THE EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD SOME OF THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT IN SOME CASES EXCEEDED DESERT SW HEAT...THE HIGH
IN LIVERMORE WAS HOTTER THAN 105 IN LAS VEGAS AND 106 IN LAUGHLIN
TODAY. ON THE COAST A SOUTHERLY SURGE SUPPORTED BY A SMX-SFO 1.7
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTHWARD TO THE MENDOCINO COAST. THERE`S
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A LITTLE SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL
PLACES ARE COOLER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE AREA`S
WEATHER IS NOW IN A STATE OF FAIRLY LARGE TRANSITION...THE
TRICKIEST PART NOW IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND EVEN FRIDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH...STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS...INTERACTION WITH THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY, ETC.. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY INLAND...WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AS HOT AS SOME TEMPERATURES GOT TODAY NO
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ONLY ABOUT A 1/2 DOZEN RECORD
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY`S...BUT BASED ON
GUIDANCE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THEM WILL BE OUT OF REACH. RECENT SEA
SURFACE TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE LAST WEEK
OR SO...WHILE MOIST SURFACE TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG.

COMPLICATING MATTERS A BIT MORE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM SOCAL...SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST THURSDAY
THEN SPREADING AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL TOTALS
INTO THE LOWER 30S SPREADS NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW AT FIRST...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TIMING FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
LOOKS GOOD.

BY THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST. OVERALL...ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TO HEMISPHERIC
SCALE THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A FALL OR EVEN
A WINTER-TIME PATTERN IN THE SENSE OF THE LARGE NUMBER OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. DOLORES` REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR INSTANCE WAS QUICKLY SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
BACK ON JULY 20TH...PERSISTENCE OF NW COASTAL WINDS UNTIL THE MOST
RECENT WIND REVERSAL ARE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THIS. IT`S DIFFICULT
TO PLACE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS RECENTLY WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE FLUCTUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRATUS HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 1600 FT MARINE LAYER PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER.
IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR AFTER
07Z. TEMPORARY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THURSDAY
MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300537
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1037 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE VERY LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS TODAY. FOR
INSTANCE HALF MOON BAY REPORTED A HIGH OF 71 WHILE IT WAS 36
DEGREES HOTTER (107) AT LIVERMORE AIRPORT 38 MILES INLAND. INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WERE QUITE WARM TO HOT
TODAY. THE EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD SOME OF THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT IN SOME CASES EXCEEDED DESERT SW HEAT...THE HIGH
IN LIVERMORE WAS HOTTER THAN 105 IN LAS VEGAS AND 106 IN LAUGHLIN
TODAY. ON THE COAST A SOUTHERLY SURGE SUPPORTED BY A SMX-SFO 1.7
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTHWARD TO THE MENDOCINO COAST. THERE`S
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A LITTLE SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL
PLACES ARE COOLER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE AREA`S
WEATHER IS NOW IN A STATE OF FAIRLY LARGE TRANSITION...THE
TRICKIEST PART NOW IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND EVEN FRIDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH...STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS...INTERACTION WITH THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY, ETC.. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY INLAND...WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AS HOT AS SOME TEMPERATURES GOT TODAY NO
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ONLY ABOUT A 1/2 DOZEN RECORD
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY`S...BUT BASED ON
GUIDANCE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THEM WILL BE OUT OF REACH. RECENT SEA
SURFACE TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE LAST WEEK
OR SO...WHILE MOIST SURFACE TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG.

COMPLICATING MATTERS A BIT MORE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM SOCAL...SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST THURSDAY
THEN SPREADING AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL TOTALS
INTO THE LOWER 30S SPREADS NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW AT FIRST...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TIMING FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
LOOKS GOOD.

BY THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST. OVERALL...ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TO HEMISPHERIC
SCALE THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A FALL OR EVEN
A WINTER-TIME PATTERN IN THE SENSE OF THE LARGE NUMBER OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. DOLORES` REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR INSTANCE WAS QUICKLY SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
BACK ON JULY 20TH...PERSISTENCE OF NW COASTAL WINDS UNTIL THE MOST
RECENT WIND REVERSAL ARE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THIS. IT`S DIFFICULT
TO PLACE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS RECENTLY WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE FLUCTUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRATUS HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 1600 FT MARINE LAYER PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER.
IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR AFTER
07Z. TEMPORARY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THURSDAY
MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300511 CCA
AFDMTR

FXUS66 KMTR DDHHMM
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE VERY LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS TODAY. FOR
INSTANCE HALF MOON BAY REPORTED A HIGH OF 71 WHILE IT WAS 36
DEGREES HOTTER (107) AT LIVEREMORE AIRPORT 38 MILES INLAND. INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WERE QUITE WARM TO HOT
TODAY. THE EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD SOME OF THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT IN SOME CASES EXCEEDED DESERT SW HEAT...THE HIGH
IN LIVERMORE WAS HOTTER THAN 105 IN LAS VEGAS AND 106 IN LAUGHLIN
TODAY. ON THE COAST A SOUTHERLY SURGE SUPPORTED BY A SMX-SFO 1.7
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTHWARD TO THE MENDOCINO COAST. THERE`S
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A LITTLE SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL
PLACES ARE COOLER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE AREA`S
WEATHER IS NOW IN A STATE OF FAIRLY LARGE TRANSITION...THE
TRICKIEST PART NOW IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND EVEN FRIDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH...STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS...INTERACTION WITH THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY, ETC.. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY INLAND...WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AS HOT AS SOME TEMPERATURES GOT TODAY NO
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ONLY ABOUT A 1/2 DOZEN RECORD HIGHS
ON THURSDAY ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY`S...BUT BASED ON GUIDANCE
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THEM WILL BE OUT OF REACH. RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPS
HAVE UNDERGONE SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WHILE MOIST
SURFACE TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG.

COMPLICATING MATTERS A BIT MORE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM SOCAL...SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST THURSDAY
THEN SPREADING AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL TOTALS
INTO THE LOWER 30S SPREADS NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW AT FIRST...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TIMING FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
LOOKS GOOD.

BY THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST. OVERALL...ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TO HEMISPHERIC
SCALE THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A FALL OR EVEN
A WINTER-TIME PATTERN IN THE SENSE OF THE LARGE NUMBER OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. DOLORES` REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR INSTANCE WAS QUICKLY SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
BACK ON JULY 20TH...PERSISTENCE OF NW COASTAL WINDS UNTIL THE MOST
RECENT WIND REVERSAL ARE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THIS. IT`S DIFFICULT
TO PLACE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS RECENTLY WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE FLUCTUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS
ADVECTED STRATUS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS A RESULT
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT UNDER A 1000 FT MARINE
LAYER. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SOME
TERMINALS...SUCH AS KMRY AND KSFO...CLEAR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING. OTHERS SUCH AS KSNS WILL SEE AN EARLY
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS FILTERS INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER GUST
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THOSE SITUATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF CLOUDS BANKS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS OVER
BAY AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER KMRY. AN EARLY RETURN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KSNS WITH CIGS
EXPECTED BY 00Z TODAY. MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 6:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 300511 CCA
AFDMTR

FXUS66 KMTR DDHHMM
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE VERY LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS TODAY. FOR
INSTANCE HALF MOON BAY REPORTED A HIGH OF 71 WHILE IT WAS 36
DEGREES HOTTER (107) AT LIVEREMORE AIRPORT 38 MILES INLAND. INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WERE QUITE WARM TO HOT
TODAY. THE EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD SOME OF THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT IN SOME CASES EXCEEDED DESERT SW HEAT...THE HIGH
IN LIVERMORE WAS HOTTER THAN 105 IN LAS VEGAS AND 106 IN LAUGHLIN
TODAY. ON THE COAST A SOUTHERLY SURGE SUPPORTED BY A SMX-SFO 1.7
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTHWARD TO THE MENDOCINO COAST. THERE`S
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A LITTLE SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL
PLACES ARE COOLER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE AREA`S
WEATHER IS NOW IN A STATE OF FAIRLY LARGE TRANSITION...THE
TRICKIEST PART NOW IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND EVEN FRIDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH...STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS...INTERACTION WITH THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY, ETC.. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY INLAND...WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AS HOT AS SOME TEMPERATURES GOT TODAY NO
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ONLY ABOUT A 1/2 DOZEN RECORD HIGHS
ON THURSDAY ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY`S...BUT BASED ON GUIDANCE
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THEM WILL BE OUT OF REACH. RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPS
HAVE UNDERGONE SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WHILE MOIST
SURFACE TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG.

COMPLICATING MATTERS A BIT MORE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM SOCAL...SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST THURSDAY
THEN SPREADING AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL TOTALS
INTO THE LOWER 30S SPREADS NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW AT FIRST...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TIMING FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
LOOKS GOOD.

BY THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST. OVERALL...ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TO HEMISPHERIC
SCALE THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A FALL OR EVEN
A WINTER-TIME PATTERN IN THE SENSE OF THE LARGE NUMBER OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. DOLORES` REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR INSTANCE WAS QUICKLY SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
BACK ON JULY 20TH...PERSISTENCE OF NW COASTAL WINDS UNTIL THE MOST
RECENT WIND REVERSAL ARE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THIS. IT`S DIFFICULT
TO PLACE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS RECENTLY WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE FLUCTUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS
ADVECTED STRATUS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS A RESULT
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT UNDER A 1000 FT MARINE
LAYER. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SOME
TERMINALS...SUCH AS KMRY AND KSFO...CLEAR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING. OTHERS SUCH AS KSNS WILL SEE AN EARLY
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS FILTERS INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER GUST
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THOSE SITUATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF CLOUDS BANKS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS OVER
BAY AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER KMRY. AN EARLY RETURN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KSNS WITH CIGS
EXPECTED BY 00Z TODAY. MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 6:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 300504
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE VERY LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS TODAY. FOR
INSTANCE HALF MOON BAY REPORTED A HIGH OF 71 WHILE IT WAS 36
DEGREES HOTTER (107) AT LIVEREMORE AIRPORT 38 MILES INLAND. INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WERE QUITE WARM TO HOT
TODAY. THE EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD SOME OF THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT IN SOME CASES EXCEEDED DESERT SW HEAT...THE HIGH
IN LIVERMORE WAS HOTTER THAN 105 IN LAS VEGAS AND 106 IN LAUGHLIN
TODAY. ON THE COAST A SOUTHERLY SURGE SUPPORTED BY A SMX-SFO 1.7
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTHWARD TO THE MENDOCINO COAST. THERE`S
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A LITTLE SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL
PLACES ARE COOLER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE AREA`S
WEATHER IS NOW IN A STATE OF FAIRLY LARGE TRANSITION...THE
TRICKIEST PART NOW IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND EVEN FRIDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH...STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS...INTERACTION WITH THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY, ETC.. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY INLAND...WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AS HOT AS SOME TEMPERATURES GOT TODAY NO
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ONLY ABOUT A 1/2 DOZEN RECORD HIGHS
ON THURSDAY ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY`S...BUT BASED ON GUIDANCE
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THEM WILL BE OUT OF REACH. RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPS
HAVE UNDERGONE SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WHILE MOIST
SURFACE TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG.

COMPLICATING MATTERS A BIT MORE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM SOCAL...SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST THURSDAY
THEN SPREADING AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL TOTALS
INTO THE LOWER 30S SPREADS NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW AT FIRST...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TIMING FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
LOOKS GOOD.

BY THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST. OVERALL...ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TO PLANETARY
SCALE THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A FALL OR EVEN
A WINTER-TIME PATTERN IN THE SENSE OF THE LARGE NUMBER OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. DOLORES` REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR INSTANCE WAS QUICKLY SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
BACK ON JULY 20TH...PERSISTENCE OF NW COASTAL WINDS UNTIL THE MOST
RECENT WIND REVERSAL ARE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THIS. IT`S DIFFICULT
TO PLACE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS RECENTLY WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE FLUCTUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS
ADVECTED STRATUS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS A RESULT
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT UNDER A 1000 FT MARINE
LAYER. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SOME
TERMINALS...SUCH AS KMRY AND KSFO...CLEAR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING. OTHERS SUCH AS KSNS WILL SEE AN EARLY
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS FILTERS INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER GUST
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THOSE SITUATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF CLOUDS BANKS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS OVER
BAY AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER KMRY. AN EARLY RETURN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KSNS WITH CIGS
EXPECTED BY 00Z TODAY. MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 6:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 300504
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE VERY LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS TODAY. FOR
INSTANCE HALF MOON BAY REPORTED A HIGH OF 71 WHILE IT WAS 36
DEGREES HOTTER (107) AT LIVEREMORE AIRPORT 38 MILES INLAND. INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WERE QUITE WARM TO HOT
TODAY. THE EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD SOME OF THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT IN SOME CASES EXCEEDED DESERT SW HEAT...THE HIGH
IN LIVERMORE WAS HOTTER THAN 105 IN LAS VEGAS AND 106 IN LAUGHLIN
TODAY. ON THE COAST A SOUTHERLY SURGE SUPPORTED BY A SMX-SFO 1.7
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTHWARD TO THE MENDOCINO COAST. THERE`S
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A LITTLE SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL
PLACES ARE COOLER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE AREA`S
WEATHER IS NOW IN A STATE OF FAIRLY LARGE TRANSITION...THE
TRICKIEST PART NOW IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND EVEN FRIDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH...STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS...INTERACTION WITH THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY, ETC.. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY INLAND...WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AS HOT AS SOME TEMPERATURES GOT TODAY NO
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ONLY ABOUT A 1/2 DOZEN RECORD HIGHS
ON THURSDAY ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY`S...BUT BASED ON GUIDANCE
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THEM WILL BE OUT OF REACH. RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPS
HAVE UNDERGONE SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WHILE MOIST
SURFACE TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG.

COMPLICATING MATTERS A BIT MORE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM SOCAL...SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST THURSDAY
THEN SPREADING AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL TOTALS
INTO THE LOWER 30S SPREADS NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW AT FIRST...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TIMING FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
LOOKS GOOD.

BY THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST. OVERALL...ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TO PLANETARY
SCALE THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A FALL OR EVEN
A WINTER-TIME PATTERN IN THE SENSE OF THE LARGE NUMBER OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. DOLORES` REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR INSTANCE WAS QUICKLY SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
BACK ON JULY 20TH...PERSISTENCE OF NW COASTAL WINDS UNTIL THE MOST
RECENT WIND REVERSAL ARE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THIS. IT`S DIFFICULT
TO PLACE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS RECENTLY WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE FLUCTUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS
ADVECTED STRATUS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS A RESULT
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT UNDER A 1000 FT MARINE
LAYER. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SOME
TERMINALS...SUCH AS KMRY AND KSFO...CLEAR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING. OTHERS SUCH AS KSNS WILL SEE AN EARLY
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS FILTERS INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER GUST
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THOSE SITUATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF CLOUDS BANKS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS OVER
BAY AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER KMRY. AN EARLY RETURN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KSNS WITH CIGS
EXPECTED BY 00Z TODAY. MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 6:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 300458
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE VERY LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS TODAY. FOR
INSTANCE HALF MOON BAY REPORTED A HIGH OF 71 WHILE IT WAS 36
DEGREES HOTTER (107) AT LIVEREMORE AIRPORT 38 MILES INLAND. INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WERE QUITE WARM TO HOT
TODAY. THE EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD SOME OF THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT IN SOME CASES EXCEEDED DESERT SW HEAT...THE HIGH
IN LIVERMORE WAS HOTTER THAN 105 IN LAS VEGAS AND 106 IN LAUGHLIN
TODAY. ON THE COAST A SOUTHERLY SURGE SUPPORTED BY A SMX-SFO 1.7
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTHWARD TO THE MENDOCINO COAST. THERE`S
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A LITTLE SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL
PLACES ARE COOLER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE AREA`S
WEATHER IS NOW IN A STATE OF FAIRLY LARGE TRANSITION...THE
TRICKIEST PART NOW IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND EVEN FRIDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH...STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS...INTERACTION WITH THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY, ETC.. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY INLAND...WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AS HOT AS SOME TEMPERATURES GOT TODAY NO
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ABOUT A 1/2 DOZEN RECORD HIGHS
ON THURSDAY ARE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN TODAY`S...THEREFORE MOST ARE
LIKELY OUT OF REACH. RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE SOME
DECENT COOLING IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WHILE MOIST SURFACE TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
INTO THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG.

COMPLICATING MATTERS A BIT MORE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM SOCAL...SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST THURSDAY
THEN SPREADING AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL TOTALS
INTO THE LOWER 30S SPREADS NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW AT FIRST...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TIMING FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
LOOKS GOOD.

BY THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST. OVERALL...ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TO PLANETARY
SCALE THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A FALL OR EVEN
A WINTER-TIME PATTERN IN THE SENSE OF THE LARGE NUMBER OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. DOLORES` REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR INSTANCE WAS QUICKLY SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
BACK ON JULY 20TH...PERSISTENCE OF NW COASTAL WINDS UNTIL THE MOST
RECENT WIND REVERSAL ARE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THIS. IT`S DIFFICULT
TO PLACE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS RECENTLY WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE FLUCTUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS
ADVECTED STRATUS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS A RESULT
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT UNDER A 1000 FT MARINE
LAYER. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SOME
TERMINALS...SUCH AS KMRY AND KSFO...CLEAR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING. OTHERS SUCH AS KSNS WILL SEE AN EARLY
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS FILTERS INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER GUST
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THOSE SITUATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF CLOUDS BANKS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS OVER
BAY AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER KMRY. AN EARLY RETURN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KSNS WITH CIGS
EXPECTED BY 00Z TODAY. MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 6:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 300458
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE VERY LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS TODAY. FOR
INSTANCE HALF MOON BAY REPORTED A HIGH OF 71 WHILE IT WAS 36
DEGREES HOTTER (107) AT LIVEREMORE AIRPORT 38 MILES INLAND. INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WERE QUITE WARM TO HOT
TODAY. THE EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD SOME OF THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT IN SOME CASES EXCEEDED DESERT SW HEAT...THE HIGH
IN LIVERMORE WAS HOTTER THAN 105 IN LAS VEGAS AND 106 IN LAUGHLIN
TODAY. ON THE COAST A SOUTHERLY SURGE SUPPORTED BY A SMX-SFO 1.7
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT CLOUDS...FOG AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTHWARD TO THE MENDOCINO COAST. THERE`S
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A LITTLE SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL
PLACES ARE COOLER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE AREA`S
WEATHER IS NOW IN A STATE OF FAIRLY LARGE TRANSITION...THE
TRICKIEST PART NOW IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND EVEN FRIDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH...STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS...INTERACTION WITH THE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY, ETC.. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY INLAND...WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AS HOT AS SOME TEMPERATURES GOT TODAY NO
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ABOUT A 1/2 DOZEN RECORD HIGHS
ON THURSDAY ARE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN TODAY`S...THEREFORE MOST ARE
LIKELY OUT OF REACH. RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPS HAVE UNDERGONE SOME
DECENT COOLING IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WHILE MOIST SURFACE TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
INTO THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG.

COMPLICATING MATTERS A BIT MORE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM SOCAL...SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST THURSDAY
THEN SPREADING AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL TOTALS
INTO THE LOWER 30S SPREADS NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW AT FIRST...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OVER THE BAY AREA
BY FRIDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TIMING FOR SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
LOOKS GOOD.

BY THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST. OVERALL...ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TO PLANETARY
SCALE THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A FALL OR EVEN
A WINTER-TIME PATTERN IN THE SENSE OF THE LARGE NUMBER OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. DOLORES` REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR INSTANCE WAS QUICKLY SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
BACK ON JULY 20TH...PERSISTENCE OF NW COASTAL WINDS UNTIL THE MOST
RECENT WIND REVERSAL ARE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THIS. IT`S DIFFICULT
TO PLACE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS RECENTLY WITH
THIS LARGE SCALE FLUCTUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS
ADVECTED STRATUS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS A RESULT
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT UNDER A 1000 FT MARINE
LAYER. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SOME
TERMINALS...SUCH AS KMRY AND KSFO...CLEAR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING. OTHERS SUCH AS KSNS WILL SEE AN EARLY
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS FILTERS INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER GUST
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THOSE SITUATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF CLOUDS BANKS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS OVER
BAY AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER KMRY. AN EARLY RETURN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KSNS WITH CIGS
EXPECTED BY 00Z TODAY. MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 6:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 300002
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
502 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS
ADVECTED STRATUS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS A RESULT
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT UNDER A 1000 FT MARINE
LAYER. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SOME
TERMINALS...SUCH AS KMRY AND KSFO...CLEAR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING. OTHERS SUCH AS KSNS WILL SEE AN EARLY
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS FILTERS INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER GUST
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THOSE SITUATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF CLOUDS BANKS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS OVER
BAY AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER KMRY. AN EARLY RETURN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KSNS WITH CIGS
EXPECTED BY 00Z TODAY. MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 6:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 300002
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
502 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS
ADVECTED STRATUS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS A RESULT
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT UNDER A 1000 FT MARINE
LAYER. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SOME
TERMINALS...SUCH AS KMRY AND KSFO...CLEAR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING. OTHERS SUCH AS KSNS WILL SEE AN EARLY
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS FILTERS INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER GUST
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THOSE SITUATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF CLOUDS BANKS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS OVER
BAY AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER KMRY. AN EARLY RETURN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KSNS WITH CIGS
EXPECTED BY 00Z TODAY. MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 6:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BECOME WESTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 292145
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
245 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
RETREATED TO THE COAST AT THIS HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJOR TERMINALS. THE SOUTHERLY SURGE AND DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECTING A LATE AFTERNOON PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY 21Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT TO LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING OVER THE TERMINAL. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON LIKELY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO THE COASTLINE.
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED
SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: MM/RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 292145
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
245 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND AREAS
OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING ON THE HOT
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. IT IS CURRENTLY 100 IN WALNUT
CREEK...104 AT LIVERMORE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND 101 IN MORGAN HILL.
ITS ANOTHER STORY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING IT
ON THE COOL SIDE. AT WFO MONTEREY IT IS CURRENTLY 71...CAPITOLA IS
CURRENTLY 67 AND 62 IN HALFMOON BAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA...MONSOON MOISTURE IS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS HIGH AND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDING WESTWARD THURSDAY TAPPING INTO THE MONSOON
MOISTURE POOL ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED
AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY AND
ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NAPA
AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
RETREATED TO THE COAST AT THIS HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJOR TERMINALS. THE SOUTHERLY SURGE AND DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECTING A LATE AFTERNOON PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY 21Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT TO LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING OVER THE TERMINAL. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON LIKELY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO THE COASTLINE.
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED
SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: MM/RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 291805
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1105 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING
MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE
PUSHED UP THE COAST LAST NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
THIS MARINE AIR AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TO SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES
AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A 591DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...PROMOTING HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDES WEST AND BEGINS TAPPING
INTO THE MONSOON MOISTURE POOL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY
POSITIONED AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY AND ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
RETREATED TO THE COAST AT THIS HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJOR TERMINALS. THE SOUTHERLY SURGE AND DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECTING A LATE AFTERNOON PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY 21Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT TO LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING OVER THE TERMINAL. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON LIKELY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO THE COASTLINE.
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED
SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: MM/RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 291805
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1105 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING
MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE
PUSHED UP THE COAST LAST NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
THIS MARINE AIR AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TO SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES
AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A 591DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...PROMOTING HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDES WEST AND BEGINS TAPPING
INTO THE MONSOON MOISTURE POOL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY
POSITIONED AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY AND ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
RETREATED TO THE COAST AT THIS HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJOR TERMINALS. THE SOUTHERLY SURGE AND DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECTING A LATE AFTERNOON PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY 21Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT TO LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING OVER THE TERMINAL. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON LIKELY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO THE COASTLINE.
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED
SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: MM/RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 291719
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1019 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING
MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE
PUSHED UP THE COAST LAST NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
THIS MARINE AIR AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TO SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES
AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A 591DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...PROMOTING HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDES WEST AND BEGINS TAPPING
INTO THE MONSOON MOISTURE POOL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY
POSITIONED AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY AND ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
UNDERWAY WITH LIFR IMPACTS CONFINED TO MAINLY MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS FOR KSFO OR KOAK THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
MONTEREY BAY AND POSSIBLY INTO KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TRICKY FORECAST AS LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THIS MORNING FOR KMRY GIVEN
SOUTH/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. KSNS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED
SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 291719
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1019 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING
MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE
PUSHED UP THE COAST LAST NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
THIS MARINE AIR AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TO SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES
AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A 591DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...PROMOTING HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDES WEST AND BEGINS TAPPING
INTO THE MONSOON MOISTURE POOL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY
POSITIONED AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY AND ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
UNDERWAY WITH LIFR IMPACTS CONFINED TO MAINLY MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS FOR KSFO OR KOAK THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
MONTEREY BAY AND POSSIBLY INTO KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TRICKY FORECAST AS LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THIS MORNING FOR KMRY GIVEN
SOUTH/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. KSNS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED
SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 291719
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1019 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING
MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE
PUSHED UP THE COAST LAST NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
THIS MARINE AIR AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TO SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES
AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A 591DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...PROMOTING HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDES WEST AND BEGINS TAPPING
INTO THE MONSOON MOISTURE POOL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY
POSITIONED AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY AND ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
UNDERWAY WITH LIFR IMPACTS CONFINED TO MAINLY MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS FOR KSFO OR KOAK THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
MONTEREY BAY AND POSSIBLY INTO KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TRICKY FORECAST AS LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THIS MORNING FOR KMRY GIVEN
SOUTH/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. KSNS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED
SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 291719
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1019 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING
MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE
PUSHED UP THE COAST LAST NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
THIS MARINE AIR AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TO SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES
AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A 591DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...PROMOTING HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDES WEST AND BEGINS TAPPING
INTO THE MONSOON MOISTURE POOL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY
POSITIONED AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY AND ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
UNDERWAY WITH LIFR IMPACTS CONFINED TO MAINLY MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS FOR KSFO OR KOAK THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
MONTEREY BAY AND POSSIBLY INTO KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TRICKY FORECAST AS LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THIS MORNING FOR KMRY GIVEN
SOUTH/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. KSNS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED
SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 291329
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
629 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM MONTEREY
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER INDICATES A
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET...AND FOG IS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONTEREY BAY INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH 7.4 MB FROM
WMC TO SFO...BUT CONTAIN AN ONSHORE ELEMENT AS WELL WITH THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT AT 2.1 MB. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE...THUS ANOTHER WARM/HOT
DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...WITH 70S AT THE COAST TO THE
90S TO 105 WELL INLAND. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREA WILL BE SANTA
CRUZ. DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SURGE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
COAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LINGERING FOG MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
INCREASE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM...HOWEVER ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
UNDERWAY WITH LIFR IMPACTS CONFINED TO MAINLY MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS FOR KSFO OR KOAK THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
MONTEREY BAY AND POSSIBLY INTO KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TRICKY FORECAST AS LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THIS MORNING FOR KMRY GIVEN
SOUTH/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. KSNS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 291329
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
629 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM MONTEREY
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER INDICATES A
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET...AND FOG IS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONTEREY BAY INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH 7.4 MB FROM
WMC TO SFO...BUT CONTAIN AN ONSHORE ELEMENT AS WELL WITH THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT AT 2.1 MB. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE...THUS ANOTHER WARM/HOT
DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...WITH 70S AT THE COAST TO THE
90S TO 105 WELL INLAND. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREA WILL BE SANTA
CRUZ. DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SURGE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
COAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LINGERING FOG MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
INCREASE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM...HOWEVER ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
UNDERWAY WITH LIFR IMPACTS CONFINED TO MAINLY MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS FOR KSFO OR KOAK THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
MONTEREY BAY AND POSSIBLY INTO KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TRICKY FORECAST AS LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THIS MORNING FOR KMRY GIVEN
SOUTH/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. KSNS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM MONTEREY
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER INDICATES A
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET...AND FOG IS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONTEREY BAY INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH 7.4 MB FROM
WMC TO SFO...BUT CONTAIN AN ONSHORE ELEMENT AS WELL WITH THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT AT 2.1 MB. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE...THUS ANOTHER WARM/HOT
DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...WITH 70S AT THE COAST TO THE
90S TO 105 WELL INLAND. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREA WILL BE SANTA
CRUZ. DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SURGE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
COAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LINGERING FOG MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
INCREASE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM...HOWEVER ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
UNDERWAY WITH LIFR IMPACTS CONFINED TO MAINLY MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS FOR KSFO OR KOAK THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
MONTEREY BAY AND POSSIBLY INTO KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TRICKY FORECAST AS LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THIS MORNING FOR KMRY GIVEN
SOUTH/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. KSNS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 291134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM MONTEREY
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER INDICATES A
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET...AND FOG IS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONTEREY BAY INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH 7.4 MB FROM
WMC TO SFO...BUT CONTAIN AN ONSHORE ELEMENT AS WELL WITH THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT AT 2.1 MB. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE...THUS ANOTHER WARM/HOT
DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...WITH 70S AT THE COAST TO THE
90S TO 105 WELL INLAND. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREA WILL BE SANTA
CRUZ. DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SURGE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
COAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LINGERING FOG MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
INCREASE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM...HOWEVER ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
UNDERWAY WITH LIFR IMPACTS CONFINED TO MAINLY MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS FOR KSFO OR KOAK THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
MONTEREY BAY AND POSSIBLY INTO KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TRICKY FORECAST AS LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THIS MORNING FOR KMRY GIVEN
SOUTH/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. KSNS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 291025
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
325 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM MONTEREY
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER INDICATES A
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET...AND FOG IS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONTEREY BAY INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH 7.4 MB FROM
WMC TO SFO...BUT CONTAIN AN ONSHORE ELEMENT AS WELL WITH THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT AT 2.1 MB. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE...THUS ANOTHER WARM/HOT
DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...WITH 70S AT THE COAST TO THE
90S TO 105 WELL INLAND. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
INCREASE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM...HOWEVER ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:21 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 291025
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
325 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM MONTEREY
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER INDICATES A
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET...AND FOG IS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONTEREY BAY INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH 7.4 MB FROM
WMC TO SFO...BUT CONTAIN AN ONSHORE ELEMENT AS WELL WITH THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT AT 2.1 MB. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE...THUS ANOTHER WARM/HOT
DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...WITH 70S AT THE COAST TO THE
90S TO 105 WELL INLAND. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
INCREASE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM...HOWEVER ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:21 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 291025
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
325 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM MONTEREY
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER INDICATES A
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET...AND FOG IS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONTEREY BAY INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH 7.4 MB FROM
WMC TO SFO...BUT CONTAIN AN ONSHORE ELEMENT AS WELL WITH THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT AT 2.1 MB. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE...THUS ANOTHER WARM/HOT
DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...WITH 70S AT THE COAST TO THE
90S TO 105 WELL INLAND. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
INCREASE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM...HOWEVER ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:21 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 290545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE BROUGHT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. INLAND AREAS WERE 4-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. KENTFIELD TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 98 TODAY
WHILE MANY OTHER PLACES CAME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR
RECORD HIGHS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA TODAY
INCLUDED 104 IN LIVERMORE...105 IN HEALDSBURG...AND 103 IN
BRADLEY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE MRY BAY AND BIG
SUR COASTS TODAY BUT EVEN SO MANY COASTAL AREAS WERE IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL BRING
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. MODELS
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES THURSDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND SANTA ROSA
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT COOL
DOWN UNTIL FRIDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
A LITTLE MORE SO THERE WILL BE MORE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SFO BAY AREA WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL
BUT INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 290545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE BROUGHT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. INLAND AREAS WERE 4-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. KENTFIELD TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 98 TODAY
WHILE MANY OTHER PLACES CAME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR
RECORD HIGHS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA TODAY
INCLUDED 104 IN LIVERMORE...105 IN HEALDSBURG...AND 103 IN
BRADLEY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE MRY BAY AND BIG
SUR COASTS TODAY BUT EVEN SO MANY COASTAL AREAS WERE IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL BRING
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. MODELS
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES THURSDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND SANTA ROSA
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT COOL
DOWN UNTIL FRIDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
A LITTLE MORE SO THERE WILL BE MORE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SFO BAY AREA WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL
BUT INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 290350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE BROUGHT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. INLAND AREAS WERE 4-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. KENTFIELD TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 98 TODAY
WHILE MANY OTHER PLACES CAME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR
RECORD HIGHS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA TODAY
INCLUDED 104 IN LIVERMORE...105 IN HEALDSBURG...AND 103 IN
BRADLEY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE MRY BAY AND BIG
SUR COASTS TODAY BUT EVEN SO MANY COASTAL AREAS WERE IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL BRING
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. MODELS
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES THURSDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND SANTA ROSA
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT COOL
DOWN UNTIL FRIDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
A LITTLE MORE SO THERE WILL BE MORE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SFO BAY AREA WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL
BUT INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL EASE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS 13 KT OR LESS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:06 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BY TOMORROW. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 290350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE BROUGHT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. INLAND AREAS WERE 4-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. KENTFIELD TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 98 TODAY
WHILE MANY OTHER PLACES CAME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR
RECORD HIGHS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA TODAY
INCLUDED 104 IN LIVERMORE...105 IN HEALDSBURG...AND 103 IN
BRADLEY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE MRY BAY AND BIG
SUR COASTS TODAY BUT EVEN SO MANY COASTAL AREAS WERE IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL BRING
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. MODELS
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES THURSDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND SANTA ROSA
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT COOL
DOWN UNTIL FRIDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
A LITTLE MORE SO THERE WILL BE MORE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SFO BAY AREA WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL
BUT INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL EASE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS 13 KT OR LESS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:06 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BY TOMORROW. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 290350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE BROUGHT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. INLAND AREAS WERE 4-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. KENTFIELD TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 98 TODAY
WHILE MANY OTHER PLACES CAME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR
RECORD HIGHS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA TODAY
INCLUDED 104 IN LIVERMORE...105 IN HEALDSBURG...AND 103 IN
BRADLEY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE MRY BAY AND BIG
SUR COASTS TODAY BUT EVEN SO MANY COASTAL AREAS WERE IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL BRING
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. MODELS
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES THURSDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND SANTA ROSA
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS. INLAND AREAS WILL NOT COOL
DOWN UNTIL FRIDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
A LITTLE MORE SO THERE WILL BE MORE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SFO BAY AREA WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL
BUT INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL EASE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS 13 KT OR LESS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:06 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BY TOMORROW. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
454 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

..VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING SUNNY SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG SUR COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
LINGERING. UNDER THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S IN THE INLAND AREAS WITH A FEW
100S...KEEP IN MIND THAT WE STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF HEATING LEFT
IN THE DAY. WITH THIS IN MIND A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ALONG THE COAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY WARM
WITH WFO MONTEREY REPORTING A CURRENT TEMPERATURE OF 75...77 IN
SANTA CRUZ AND 77 AT MONTARA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN AND US BORDER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 IS
ALSO SPEEDING ALONG...CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND AT 15 NORTH AND 129
WEST. THE 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

BOTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA REACHING ABOUT 591 DM BY
TOMORROW WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 24 TO 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105 ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE COAST FAIRLY
WARM TO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.

HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. WITH REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES
LEADING INTO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE AND
LOCATION OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW MODELS RUNS OF THE
GFS40 HAVE BEEN GENERATING PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS COMING FRIDAY AND THE NAM12 IS NOW ALSO GENERATING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. I HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL FINE TUNE THE THREAT
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY AND THE MODELS ZERO IN ON A MORE DEFINED
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL EASE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS 13 KT OR LESS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:06 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BY TOMORROW. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 282354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
454 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

..VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING SUNNY SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG SUR COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
LINGERING. UNDER THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S IN THE INLAND AREAS WITH A FEW
100S...KEEP IN MIND THAT WE STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF HEATING LEFT
IN THE DAY. WITH THIS IN MIND A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ALONG THE COAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY WARM
WITH WFO MONTEREY REPORTING A CURRENT TEMPERATURE OF 75...77 IN
SANTA CRUZ AND 77 AT MONTARA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN AND US BORDER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 IS
ALSO SPEEDING ALONG...CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND AT 15 NORTH AND 129
WEST. THE 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

BOTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA REACHING ABOUT 591 DM BY
TOMORROW WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 24 TO 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105 ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE COAST FAIRLY
WARM TO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.

HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. WITH REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES
LEADING INTO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE AND
LOCATION OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW MODELS RUNS OF THE
GFS40 HAVE BEEN GENERATING PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS COMING FRIDAY AND THE NAM12 IS NOW ALSO GENERATING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. I HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL FINE TUNE THE THREAT
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY AND THE MODELS ZERO IN ON A MORE DEFINED
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THAT WILL SEE TEMPORARY CIGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL EASE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS 13 KT OR LESS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:06 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BY TOMORROW. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282153
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

..VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING SUNNY SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG SUR COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
LINGERING. UNDER THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S IN THE INLAND AREAS WITH A FEW
100S...KEEP IN MIND THAT WE STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF HEATING LEFT
IN THE DAY. WITH THIS IN MIND A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ALONG THE COAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY WARM
WITH WFO MONTEREY REPORTING A CURRENT TEMPERATURE OF 75...77 IN
SANTA CRUZ AND 77 AT MONTARA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN AND US BORDER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 IS
ALSO SPEEDING ALONG...CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND AT 15 NORTH AND
129 WEST. THE 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

BOTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA REACHING ABOUT 591 DM BY
TOMORROW WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 24 TO 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105 ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE COAST FAIRLY
WARM TO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.

HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. WITH REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES
LEADING INTO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE AND
LOCATION OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW MODELS RUNS OF THE
GFS40 HAVE BEEN GENERATING PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS COMING FRIDAY AND THE NAM12 IS NOW ALSO GENERATING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. I HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL FINE TUNE THE THREAT
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY AND THE MODELS ZERO IN ON A MORE DEFINED
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSBL AT OR
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VISBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS 12KT OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 282153
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

..VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING SUNNY SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG SUR COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
LINGERING. UNDER THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S IN THE INLAND AREAS WITH A FEW
100S...KEEP IN MIND THAT WE STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF HEATING LEFT
IN THE DAY. WITH THIS IN MIND A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ALONG THE COAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY WARM
WITH WFO MONTEREY REPORTING A CURRENT TEMPERATURE OF 75...77 IN
SANTA CRUZ AND 77 AT MONTARA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN AND US BORDER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 IS
ALSO SPEEDING ALONG...CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND AT 15 NORTH AND
129 WEST. THE 1200Z GFS40 AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

BOTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA REACHING ABOUT 591 DM BY
TOMORROW WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 24 TO 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105 ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE COAST FAIRLY
WARM TO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.

HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. WITH REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES
LEADING INTO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE AND
LOCATION OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW MODELS RUNS OF THE
GFS40 HAVE BEEN GENERATING PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS COMING FRIDAY AND THE NAM12 IS NOW ALSO GENERATING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. I HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL FINE TUNE THE THREAT
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY AND THE MODELS ZERO IN ON A MORE DEFINED
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSBL AT OR
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VISBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS 12KT OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281810
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1110 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

..VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY
MORNING FOG ALONG THE COAST SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AROUND THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP PRETTY QUICKLY WITH
LIVERMORE REPORTING A CURRENT TEMP OF 85 DEGREES...HAYWARD
REPORTING IN AT 75 AND MORGAN HILL AT 85 DEGREES. THE WARM UP IS
ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT MANY INLAND AREAS EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105. UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND US BORDER. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 IS ALSO APPARENT AT 16 NORTH
AND 128 WEST. THE 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND.

BOTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA TO ABOUT 591 DM WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 24 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105 ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES ON THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE COAST FAIRLY
WARM TO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.

HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. WITH REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES
LEADING INTO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE AND
LOCATION OF INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE I AM
PLANNING ON ADDING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO ELEVATED AREAS AROUND OUR CWA. WE WILL FINE TUNE THE THREAT AS
WE NEAR FRIDAY AND THE MODELS ZERO IN ON A MORE DEFINED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSBL AT OR
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VISBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS 12KT OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281810
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1110 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

..VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY
MORNING FOG ALONG THE COAST SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AROUND THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP PRETTY QUICKLY WITH
LIVERMORE REPORTING A CURRENT TEMP OF 85 DEGREES...HAYWARD
REPORTING IN AT 75 AND MORGAN HILL AT 85 DEGREES. THE WARM UP IS
ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT MANY INLAND AREAS EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105. UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND US BORDER. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 IS ALSO APPARENT AT 16 NORTH
AND 128 WEST. THE 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND.

BOTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA TO ABOUT 591 DM WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 24 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105 ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES ON THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE COAST FAIRLY
WARM TO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.

HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. WITH REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES
LEADING INTO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE AND
LOCATION OF INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE I AM
PLANNING ON ADDING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO ELEVATED AREAS AROUND OUR CWA. WE WILL FINE TUNE THE THREAT AS
WE NEAR FRIDAY AND THE MODELS ZERO IN ON A MORE DEFINED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSBL AT OR
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VISBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS 12KT OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...COMPLETELY CLEAR START
TO THE DAY TODAY WILL BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING NO
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR CWA OR OVER THE WATERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AT 4 MB OR DOUBLE OF WEST
TO EAST. THAT COMBINED WITH A MARINE LAYER SQUASHED TO AROUND 500
FEET HAS LEAD TO THE CLEAR START.

BIGGER PICTURE SYNOPTICALLY SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 3C BY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH HIGHS TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. INLAND HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 90S TO LOWER 100S WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL SEE
LESS OF A WARM UP DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. HIGHS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80S.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3C AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS WHICH WILL HELP TO
MODERATE THE HEATING.

WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO MORNINGS HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON THE HEATING FOR THE WEEK
SUGGESTING THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM.

BY LATE THURSDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
ENOUGH OF IT MAKES IT TO OUR CWA ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 0Z GFS BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM KEEP ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM SOLUTION BRINGS A FEW
SHOWERS TO SAN BENITO COUNTY ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE
REACHED.

LONGER RANG OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSBL AT OR
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VISBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS 12KT OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...COMPLETELY CLEAR START
TO THE DAY TODAY WILL BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING NO
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR CWA OR OVER THE WATERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AT 4 MB OR DOUBLE OF WEST
TO EAST. THAT COMBINED WITH A MARINE LAYER SQUASHED TO AROUND 500
FEET HAS LEAD TO THE CLEAR START.

BIGGER PICTURE SYNOPTICALLY SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 3C BY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH HIGHS TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. INLAND HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 90S TO LOWER 100S WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL SEE
LESS OF A WARM UP DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. HIGHS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80S.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3C AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS WHICH WILL HELP TO
MODERATE THE HEATING.

WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO MORNINGS HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON THE HEATING FOR THE WEEK
SUGGESTING THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM.

BY LATE THURSDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
ENOUGH OF IT MAKES IT TO OUR CWA ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 0Z GFS BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM KEEP ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM SOLUTION BRINGS A FEW
SHOWERS TO SAN BENITO COUNTY ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE
REACHED.

LONGER RANG OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSBL AT OR
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VISBYS FROM
FOG AOB SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS 12KT OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281118
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
418 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...COMPLETELY CLEAR START
TO THE DAY TODAY WILL BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING NO
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR CWA OR OVER THE WATERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AT 4 MB OR DOUBLE OF WEST
TO EAST. THAT COMBINED WITH A MARINE LAYER SQUASHED TO AROUND 500
FEET HAS LEAD TO THE CLEAR START.

BIGGER PICTURE SYNOPTICALLY SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 3C BY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH HIGHS TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. INLAND HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 90S TO LOWER 100S WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL SEE
LESS OF A WARM UP DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. HIGHS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80S.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3C AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS WHICH WILL HELP TO
MODERATE THE HEATING.

WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO MORNINGS HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON THE HEATING FOR THE WEEK
SUGGESTING THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM.

BY LATE THURSDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
ENOUGH OF IT MAKES IT TO OUR CWA ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 0Z GFS BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM KEEP ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM SOLUTION BRINGS A FEW
SHOWERS TO SAN BENITO COUNTY ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE
REACHED.

LONGER RANG OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE NORTH OF POINT REYES. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281118
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
418 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...COMPLETELY CLEAR START
TO THE DAY TODAY WILL BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING NO
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR CWA OR OVER THE WATERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AT 4 MB OR DOUBLE OF WEST
TO EAST. THAT COMBINED WITH A MARINE LAYER SQUASHED TO AROUND 500
FEET HAS LEAD TO THE CLEAR START.

BIGGER PICTURE SYNOPTICALLY SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 3C BY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH HIGHS TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. INLAND HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 90S TO LOWER 100S WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL SEE
LESS OF A WARM UP DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. HIGHS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80S.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3C AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS WHICH WILL HELP TO
MODERATE THE HEATING.

WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO MORNINGS HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON THE HEATING FOR THE WEEK
SUGGESTING THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM.

BY LATE THURSDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
ENOUGH OF IT MAKES IT TO OUR CWA ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 0Z GFS BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM KEEP ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM SOLUTION BRINGS A FEW
SHOWERS TO SAN BENITO COUNTY ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE
REACHED.

LONGER RANG OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE NORTH OF POINT REYES. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281118
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
418 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...COMPLETELY CLEAR START
TO THE DAY TODAY WILL BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING NO
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR CWA OR OVER THE WATERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AT 4 MB OR DOUBLE OF WEST
TO EAST. THAT COMBINED WITH A MARINE LAYER SQUASHED TO AROUND 500
FEET HAS LEAD TO THE CLEAR START.

BIGGER PICTURE SYNOPTICALLY SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 3C BY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH HIGHS TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. INLAND HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 90S TO LOWER 100S WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL SEE
LESS OF A WARM UP DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. HIGHS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80S.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3C AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS WHICH WILL HELP TO
MODERATE THE HEATING.

WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO MORNINGS HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON THE HEATING FOR THE WEEK
SUGGESTING THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM.

BY LATE THURSDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
ENOUGH OF IT MAKES IT TO OUR CWA ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 0Z GFS BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM KEEP ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM SOLUTION BRINGS A FEW
SHOWERS TO SAN BENITO COUNTY ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE
REACHED.

LONGER RANG OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE NORTH OF POINT REYES. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281026
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
326 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...COMPLETELY CLEAR START
TO THE DAY TODAY WILL BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING NO
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR CWA OR OVER THE WATERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AT 4 MB OR DOUBLE OF WEST
TO EAST. THAT COMBINED WITH A MARINE LAYER SQUASHED TO AROUND 500
FEET HAS LEAD TO THE CLEAR START.

BIGGER PICTURE SYNOPTICALLY SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 3C BY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH HIGHS TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. INLAND HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 90S TO LOWER 100S WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL SEE
LESS OF A WARM UP DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. HIGHS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80S.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3C AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS WHICH WILL HELP TO
MODERATE THE HEATING.

WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO MORNINGS HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON THE HEATING FOR THE WEEK
SUGGESTING THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM.

BY LATE THURSDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
ENOUGH OF IT MAKES IT TO OUR CWA ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 0Z GFS BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM KEEP ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM SOLUTION BRINGS A FEW
SHOWERS TO SAN BENITO COUNTY ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE
REACHED.

LONGER RANG OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:25 AM PDT TUESDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP WIND WAVES.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 281026
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
326 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...COMPLETELY CLEAR START
TO THE DAY TODAY WILL BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING NO
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR CWA OR OVER THE WATERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AT 4 MB OR DOUBLE OF WEST
TO EAST. THAT COMBINED WITH A MARINE LAYER SQUASHED TO AROUND 500
FEET HAS LEAD TO THE CLEAR START.

BIGGER PICTURE SYNOPTICALLY SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 3C BY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH HIGHS TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. INLAND HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 90S TO LOWER 100S WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL SEE
LESS OF A WARM UP DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. HIGHS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80S.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3C AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS WHICH WILL HELP TO
MODERATE THE HEATING.

WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO MORNINGS HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON THE HEATING FOR THE WEEK
SUGGESTING THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM.

BY LATE THURSDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
ENOUGH OF IT MAKES IT TO OUR CWA ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 0Z GFS BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM KEEP ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM SOLUTION BRINGS A FEW
SHOWERS TO SAN BENITO COUNTY ON FRIDAY. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE
REACHED.

LONGER RANG OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:25 AM PDT TUESDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP WIND WAVES.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA..............7/28............7/29............7/30
 KENTFIELD..............98/1934........105/1954........105/1977
 SAN RAFAEL............104/1980........101/1977........102/1977
 NAPA..................107/1954........105/1954........103/1977
 SAN FRANCISCO..........84/1954.........83/1977.........85/1986
 SFO....................88/1954.........91/1977.........97/1977
 OAKLAND................76/1977.........98/1977.........95/1977
 OAKLAND AIRPORT........96/1954.........91/1977.........95/1977
 RICHMOND...............88/1954.........82/1967.........80/1993
 LIVERMORE.............106/1980........108/1954........107/1979
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1954.........93/1977.........97/1977
 SAN JOSE..............100/1954.........95/1977........102/1995
 GILROY................101/1995........102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA........7/28...........7/29.............7/30
 MONTEREY...............85/1954........86/1977..........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ.............92/1947........88/1964.........102/1977
 SALINAS................92/1954........95/1977..........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT........84/1967........92/1977..........84/1977
 KING CITY..............99/1967.......105/1977.........106/1977

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE PACIFIC BROUGHT
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT LOW CLOUDS WERE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND EVEN THESE BURNED OFF
EARLY. TEMPERATURES WERE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER AT THE COAST AND 8-10
DEGREES WARMER INLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES INLAND TUESDAY. COASTAL
AREAS WILL HAVE MORE MODEST WARMING BUT MANY PLACES WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S. HARDLY ANY STRATUS IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS. IT IS NOT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SO STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE JUST AS WARM AS TUESDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. COOLER AIR WILL THEN WEDGE ITS WAY
INLAND BY FRIDAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING. SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA BUT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DISTRICT.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:32 PM PDT MONDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP WIND WAVES.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE PACIFIC BROUGHT
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT LOW CLOUDS WERE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND EVEN THESE BURNED OFF
EARLY. TEMPERATURES WERE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER AT THE COAST AND 8-10
DEGREES WARMER INLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES INLAND TUESDAY. COASTAL
AREAS WILL HAVE MORE MODEST WARMING BUT MANY PLACES WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S. HARDLY ANY STRATUS IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS. IT IS NOT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SO STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE JUST AS WARM AS TUESDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. COOLER AIR WILL THEN WEDGE ITS WAY
INLAND BY FRIDAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING. SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA BUT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DISTRICT.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:32 PM PDT MONDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP WIND WAVES.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280349
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
849 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE PACIFIC BROUGHT
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT LOW CLOUDS WERE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND EVEN THESE BURNED OFF
EARLY. TEMPERATURES WERE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER AT THE COAST AND 8-10
DEGREES WARMER INLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES INLAND TUESDAY. COASTAL
AREAS WILL HAVE MORE MODEST WARMING BUT MANY PLACES WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S. HARDLY ANY STRATUS IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS. IT IS NOT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SO STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE JUST AS WARM AS TUESDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. COOLER AIR WILL THEN WEDGE ITS WAY
INLAND BY FRIDAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING. SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA BUT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DISTRICT.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP
WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280349
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
849 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE PACIFIC BROUGHT
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT LOW CLOUDS WERE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND EVEN THESE BURNED OFF
EARLY. TEMPERATURES WERE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER AT THE COAST AND 8-10
DEGREES WARMER INLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES INLAND TUESDAY. COASTAL
AREAS WILL HAVE MORE MODEST WARMING BUT MANY PLACES WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S. HARDLY ANY STRATUS IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS. IT IS NOT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SO STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE JUST AS WARM AS TUESDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. COOLER AIR WILL THEN WEDGE ITS WAY
INLAND BY FRIDAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING. SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA BUT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DISTRICT.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP
WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280006
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
506 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES
5 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
IS A RESULT OF A WARMER...DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEAR THE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S TO
AROUND 105 FOR THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS...YET WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL DRASTICALLY
DIFFER FROM COASTAL AREAS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...YET TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE PREDOMINATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AND GRADUAL
COOLING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LACK OF ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP
WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280006
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
506 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES
5 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
IS A RESULT OF A WARMER...DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEAR THE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S TO
AROUND 105 FOR THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS...YET WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL DRASTICALLY
DIFFER FROM COASTAL AREAS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...YET TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE PREDOMINATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AND GRADUAL
COOLING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LACK OF ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP
WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280006
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
506 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES
5 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
IS A RESULT OF A WARMER...DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEAR THE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S TO
AROUND 105 FOR THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS...YET WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL DRASTICALLY
DIFFER FROM COASTAL AREAS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...YET TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE PREDOMINATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AND GRADUAL
COOLING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LACK OF ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP
WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 280006
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
506 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES
5 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
IS A RESULT OF A WARMER...DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEAR THE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S TO
AROUND 105 FOR THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS...YET WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL DRASTICALLY
DIFFER FROM COASTAL AREAS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...YET TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE PREDOMINATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AND GRADUAL
COOLING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LACK OF ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT WEST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MODERATE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP
WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 272205
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES
5 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
IS A RESULT OF A WARMER...DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEAR THE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S TO
AROUND 105 FOR THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS...YET WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL DRASTICALLY
DIFFER FROM COASTAL AREAS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...YET TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE PREDOMINATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AND GRADUAL
COOLING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LACK OF ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A THERMAL
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST BY
THIS EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA A PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL ALSO PROMOTE WARM TO HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA AS WELL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP
WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 272205
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES
5 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
IS A RESULT OF A WARMER...DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEAR THE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S TO
AROUND 105 FOR THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS...YET WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL DRASTICALLY
DIFFER FROM COASTAL AREAS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...YET TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE PREDOMINATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AND GRADUAL
COOLING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LACK OF ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A THERMAL
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST BY
THIS EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA A PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL ALSO PROMOTE WARM TO HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA AS WELL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP
WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 272205
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK....

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES
5 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
IS A RESULT OF A WARMER...DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEAR THE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S TO
AROUND 105 FOR THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS...YET WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL DRASTICALLY
DIFFER FROM COASTAL AREAS TO INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...YET TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE PREDOMINATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AND GRADUAL
COOLING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LACK OF ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS ALL CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A THERMAL
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST BY
THIS EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA A PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL ALSO PROMOTE WARM TO HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA AS WELL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STEEP
WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES WEST...RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 271741
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1041 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN TO INLAND AREAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR OUR INLAND
AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH STARTING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE BIG SUR COAST WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL GIVEN WEAK NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION AND WEAKENING MARINE INFLUENCE...EXPECTING GOOD WARMING TO
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 80S TO 90S INLAND AND
COASTAL SPOTS WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THANKS TO A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THAT
HAS JUMPED TO NEARLY 5.5 MB. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ONE
PATCH OF CLOUD AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE WHICH MAY
SLIGHTLY EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GOING.

SYNOPTICALLY A SHORTWAVE TROF TO OUR NORTHEAST IS CONTINUING TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS THIS MORNING. DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH
BAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25
MPH CREATING A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST BAY HILLS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS UP
TO 594 DM AND TEMPS TO 25C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD 90S
TO LOWER 100S FOR MANY INLAND SPOTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO AN EXPECTED LACK OF AN OFFSHORE TROF SETUP MOST COASTAL
AREAS WILL JUST WARM INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOME RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LET DAY CREW LOOK AT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF ANY HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED.

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVE
INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED BY THE MOISTURE IT WILL
LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS WARMER THAN NORMAL READINGS GOING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT ANY SIGN OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A THERMAL
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST BY
THIS EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA A PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL ALSO PROMOTE WARM TO HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA AS WELL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST...RELAXING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 271741
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1041 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN TO INLAND AREAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR OUR INLAND
AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH STARTING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE BIG SUR COAST WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL GIVEN WEAK NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION AND WEAKENING MARINE INFLUENCE...EXPECTING GOOD WARMING TO
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 80S TO 90S INLAND AND
COASTAL SPOTS WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THANKS TO A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THAT
HAS JUMPED TO NEARLY 5.5 MB. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ONE
PATCH OF CLOUD AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE WHICH MAY
SLIGHTLY EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GOING.

SYNOPTICALLY A SHORTWAVE TROF TO OUR NORTHEAST IS CONTINUING TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS THIS MORNING. DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH
BAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25
MPH CREATING A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST BAY HILLS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS UP
TO 594 DM AND TEMPS TO 25C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD 90S
TO LOWER 100S FOR MANY INLAND SPOTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO AN EXPECTED LACK OF AN OFFSHORE TROF SETUP MOST COASTAL
AREAS WILL JUST WARM INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOME RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LET DAY CREW LOOK AT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF ANY HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED.

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVE
INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED BY THE MOISTURE IT WILL
LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS WARMER THAN NORMAL READINGS GOING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT ANY SIGN OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A THERMAL
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST BY
THIS EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA A PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL ALSO PROMOTE WARM TO HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA AS WELL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST...RELAXING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 271741
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1041 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN TO INLAND AREAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR OUR INLAND
AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH STARTING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE BIG SUR COAST WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL GIVEN WEAK NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION AND WEAKENING MARINE INFLUENCE...EXPECTING GOOD WARMING TO
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 80S TO 90S INLAND AND
COASTAL SPOTS WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THANKS TO A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THAT
HAS JUMPED TO NEARLY 5.5 MB. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ONE
PATCH OF CLOUD AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE WHICH MAY
SLIGHTLY EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GOING.

SYNOPTICALLY A SHORTWAVE TROF TO OUR NORTHEAST IS CONTINUING TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS THIS MORNING. DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH
BAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25
MPH CREATING A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST BAY HILLS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS UP
TO 594 DM AND TEMPS TO 25C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD 90S
TO LOWER 100S FOR MANY INLAND SPOTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO AN EXPECTED LACK OF AN OFFSHORE TROF SETUP MOST COASTAL
AREAS WILL JUST WARM INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOME RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LET DAY CREW LOOK AT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF ANY HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED.

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVE
INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED BY THE MOISTURE IT WILL
LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS WARMER THAN NORMAL READINGS GOING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT ANY SIGN OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A THERMAL
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST BY
THIS EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA A PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL ALSO PROMOTE WARM TO HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA AS WELL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST...RELAXING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271741
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1041 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...VERY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN TO INLAND AREAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR OUR INLAND
AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MORE MODEST TEMPERATURE
INCREASES CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH STARTING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE BIG SUR COAST WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL GIVEN WEAK NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION AND WEAKENING MARINE INFLUENCE...EXPECTING GOOD WARMING TO
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 80S TO 90S INLAND AND
COASTAL SPOTS WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THANKS TO A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THAT
HAS JUMPED TO NEARLY 5.5 MB. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ONE
PATCH OF CLOUD AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE WHICH MAY
SLIGHTLY EXPAND AROUND SUNRISE. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GOING.

SYNOPTICALLY A SHORTWAVE TROF TO OUR NORTHEAST IS CONTINUING TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS THIS MORNING. DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH
BAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25
MPH CREATING A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST BAY HILLS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS UP
TO 594 DM AND TEMPS TO 25C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD 90S
TO LOWER 100S FOR MANY INLAND SPOTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO AN EXPECTED LACK OF AN OFFSHORE TROF SETUP MOST COASTAL
AREAS WILL JUST WARM INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOME RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LET DAY CREW LOOK AT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF ANY HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED.

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVE
INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED BY THE MOISTURE IT WILL
LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS WARMER THAN NORMAL READINGS GOING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT ANY SIGN OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A THERMAL
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST BY
THIS EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA A PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL ALSO PROMOTE WARM TO HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA AS WELL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT MONDAY...A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST...RELAXING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


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