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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020536
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS....COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:01 PM PDT SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES R IFR PROBABILITY SATELLITE IMAGE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE WORKING THEIR WAY UP THE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ COAST AT
THIS HOUR. HALF MOON BAY IS ALSO REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
LOW CLOUDS. THIS SOUTHERLY SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR FORECAST MODEL...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS NOT LONG AFTER SUN RISE...BUT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA CANADA. THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT SATURDAY.

BOTH OF THESE MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING SOUTH WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
UPPER LEVEL AIR OF THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING
ARIZONA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN A GOOD POSITION FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DOES
A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS SO NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE
COAST WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE MRY BAY AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND PARTS OF THE SFO BAY AREA LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT-BKN010 FROM 12Z THROUGH 16Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX
WITH A SMALLER LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020401
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
901 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS....COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:01 PM PDT SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES R IFR PROBABILITY SATELLITE IMAGE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE WORKING THEIR WAY UP THE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ COAST AT
THIS HOUR. HALF MOON BAY IS ALSO REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
LOW CLOUDS. THIS SOUTHERLY SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR FORECAST MODEL...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS NOT LONG AFTER SUN RISE...BUT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA CANADA. THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT SATURDAY.

BOTH OF THESE MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING SOUTH WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
UPPER LEVEL AIR OF THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING
ARIZONA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN A GOOD POSITION FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DOES
A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS SO NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING
VFR TODAY. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST IS A
POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SURGE LATER TODAY. LATEST NAM AND WRF SHOW A
SOUTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING KMRY/KSNS...POSS MAKING IT INTO SF BAY
OVERNIGHT. CONF IS MARGINAL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BECOMING MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 012054
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS....AFTER A WARM DAY TODAY COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEASONABLE AND DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG
WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WARM DAY ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION TODAY WITH MOST SPOTS 3 TO 7 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY. MODELS HAD BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE WARM READINGS FOR
NEARLY A WEEK AND APPEAR TO HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE VALUES.
A FEW SPOTS HAVE SEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE INCREASES FROM YESTERDAY. IN
PARTICULAR MONTEREY WHERE 79 DEGREES HAS NOW BEEN REACHED. THAT IS
17 AHEAD OF YESTERDAY.

A COOL DOWN IS STILL ON TRACK STARTING TOMORROW AS THE OFFSHORE
FLOW FLIPS TO MORE ONSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDS WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE PICTURE AND RETURN TO COASTAL SPOTS PLUS SOME
ADJACENT VALLEYS TONIGHT. SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS THE CHANGE WITH
A MINOR SOUTHERLY SURGE CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE. VISIBLE IMAGE HAVE
A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS NOW INTO WESTERN MONTEREY BAY. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY COASTAL
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MOST SPOTS
WILL SEE A 5 TO 10 DEGREE DROP IN HIGHS COMPARED TO TODAY ALTHOUGH
LOCATIONS WELL INLAND WILL SEE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR REGION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES TO THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT A
CUT-OFF LOW WILL THEN FORM BY THURSDAY NEAR OUR COAST BEFORE
SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE EAST. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH CUT-OFF
LOWS, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE
CENTER WHICH MAKES PIN-POINTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE
DIFFICULT. FOR NOW WENT WITH A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, A SLIGHT CHANCED OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED DUE TO THE
LOCATION OF THE TROF/LOW PLUS MORE INSTABILITY (NAM ALREADY
SHOWING LIFTED VALUES TO MINUS 2 OVER THE NORTH BAY). THIS TIME
OF YEAR, COLDER SYSTEMS COMING FROM THE NORTH ARE A GOOD BET FOR
PRODUCING SOME LIGHTING AND/OR SMALL HAIL. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS OF ONLY UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, THERE MAY
BE ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN TEMPS SATURDAY.

LONGER RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK FAVORS A RETURN TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING
VFR TODAY. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST IS A
POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SURGE LATER TODAY. LATEST NAM AND WRF SHOW A
SOUTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING KMRY/KSNS...POSS MAKING IT INTO SF BAY
OVERNIGHT. CONF IS MARGINAL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BECOMING MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011729
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1029 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...RESULTING IN
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. COASTAL FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR START TO THE DAY
WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. N-TO-S GRADIENT RIGHT NOW
IS OVER 2 MB WHILE W-TO-E FLOW IS SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST. AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, MODELS ARE INDICATING A SOUTHERLY
PUSH UP THE COAST TODAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE DOES NOT SHOW
ANY CLOUDS EVEN UP TO SLO COUNTY. 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR DOES
INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SATELLITE TO SEE IF IT DOES
MATERIALIZE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND IN SOME
CASES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS FORECAST AN END TO OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC "SOUTHERLY SURGE" SCENARIO...SINCE
LOW CLOUDS DO NOT ALREADY EXIST TO OUR SOUTH NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION. WHAT`S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FORM IN COASTAL AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NORTH UP ALONG THE REST OF OUR COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOR COASTAL AREAS SINCE THE TIMING OF
THE SOUTHERLY WIND ONSET AND COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR COOLING TO
OCCUR IN LOCATIONS LIKE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ WHILE OTHER COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH TODAY IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON THAT IS ROTATING AROUND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST...MAINLY OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR EASTERN ALAMEDA...SANTA
CLARA...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR LATER TODAY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE ALONG
145W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY THURSDAY...WITH THAT
LOW THEN PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF CUTOFF LOW
MOVEMENT...IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THIS UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING
VFR TODAY. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST IS A
POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SURGE LATER TODAY. LATEST NAM AND WRF SHOW A
SOUTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING KMRY/KSNS...POSS MAKING IT INTO SF BAY
OVERNIGHT. CONF IS MARGINAL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BECOMING MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 011729
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1029 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...RESULTING IN
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. COASTAL FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR START TO THE DAY
WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. N-TO-S GRADIENT RIGHT NOW
IS OVER 2 MB WHILE W-TO-E FLOW IS SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST. AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, MODELS ARE INDICATING A SOUTHERLY
PUSH UP THE COAST TODAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE DOES NOT SHOW
ANY CLOUDS EVEN UP TO SLO COUNTY. 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR DOES
INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SATELLITE TO SEE IF IT DOES
MATERIALIZE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND IN SOME
CASES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS FORECAST AN END TO OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC "SOUTHERLY SURGE" SCENARIO...SINCE
LOW CLOUDS DO NOT ALREADY EXIST TO OUR SOUTH NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION. WHAT`S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FORM IN COASTAL AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NORTH UP ALONG THE REST OF OUR COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOR COASTAL AREAS SINCE THE TIMING OF
THE SOUTHERLY WIND ONSET AND COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR COOLING TO
OCCUR IN LOCATIONS LIKE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ WHILE OTHER COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH TODAY IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON THAT IS ROTATING AROUND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST...MAINLY OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR EASTERN ALAMEDA...SANTA
CLARA...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR LATER TODAY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE ALONG
145W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY THURSDAY...WITH THAT
LOW THEN PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF CUTOFF LOW
MOVEMENT...IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THIS UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING
VFR TODAY. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST IS A
POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SURGE LATER TODAY. LATEST NAM AND WRF SHOW A
SOUTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING KMRY/KSNS...POSS MAKING IT INTO SF BAY
OVERNIGHT. CONF IS MARGINAL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BECOMING MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 011544
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
844 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...RESULTING IN
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. COASTAL FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...CLEAR START TO THE DAY
WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. N-TO-S GRADIENT RIGHT NOW
IS OVER 2 MB WHILE W-TO-E FLOW IS SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST. AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, MODELS ARE INDICATING A SOUTHERLY
PUSH UP THE COAST TODAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE DOES NOT SHOW
ANY CLOUDS EVEN UP TO SLO COUNTY. 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR DOES
INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SATELLITE TO SEE IF IT DOES
MATERIALIZE.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND IN SOME
CASES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS FORECAST AN END TO OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC "SOUTHERLY SURGE" SCENARIO...SINCE
LOW CLOUDS DO NOT ALREADY EXIST TO OUR SOUTH NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION. WHAT`S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FORM IN COASTAL AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NORTH UP ALONG THE REST OF OUR COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOR COASTAL AREAS SINCE THE TIMING OF
THE SOUTHERLY WIND ONSET AND COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR COOLING TO
OCCUR IN LOCATIONS LIKE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ WHILE OTHER COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH TODAY IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON THAT IS ROTATING AROUND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST...MAINLY OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR EASTERN ALAMEDA...SANTA
CLARA...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR LATER TODAY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE ALONG
145W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY THURSDAY...WITH THAT
LOW THEN PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF CUTOFF LOW
MOVEMENT...IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THIS UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:21 AM PDT SUNDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING
MAINLY VFR TODAY. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST
IS A POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SURGE LATER TODAY. LATEST NAM AND WRF SHOW
A SOUTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING KMRY/KSNS...POSS MAKING IT INTO SF BAY
OVERNIGHT. CONF IS MARGINAL...BUT WILL ADD CIGS TO MONTEREY BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH SOME HAZE IN THE AM. VFR
BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT..

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011125
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...RESULTING IN
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. COASTAL FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO AND IN SOME CASES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS FORECAST AN END TO
OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE COAST. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC "SOUTHERLY
SURGE" SCENARIO...SINCE LOW CLOUDS DO NOT ALREADY EXIST TO OUR
SOUTH NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. WHAT`S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS THAT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM IN COASTAL AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY
SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NORTH UP ALONG THE REST
OF OUR COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A
DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOR COASTAL AREAS SINCE THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTHERLY WIND ONSET AND COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FOR COOLING TO OCCUR IN LOCATIONS LIKE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ
WHILE OTHER COASTAL AREAS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH TODAY IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON THAT IS ROTATING AROUND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST...MAINLY OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR EASTERN ALAMEDA...SANTA
CLARA...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR LATER TODAY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE ALONG
145W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY THURSDAY...WITH THAT
LOW THEN PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF CUTOFF LOW
MOVEMENT...IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THIS UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:21 AM PDT SUNDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING
MAINLY VFR TODAY. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST
IS A POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SURGE LATER TODAY. LATEST NAM AND WRF SHOW
A SOUTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING KMRY/KSNS...POSS MAKING IT INTO SF BAY
OVERNIGHT. CONF IS MARGINAL...BUT WILL ADD CIGS TO MONTEREY BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH SOME HAZE IN THE AM. VFR
BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT..

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:19 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 011025
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
325 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...RESULTING IN
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. COASTAL FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO AND IN SOME CASES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS FORECAST AN END TO
OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE COAST. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC "SOUTHERLY
SURGE" SCENARIO...SINCE LOW CLOUDS DO NOT ALREADY EXIST TO OUR
SOUTH NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. WHAT`S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS THAT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM IN COASTAL AREAS FROM MONTEREY BAY
SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NORTH UP ALONG THE REST
OF OUR COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A
DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOR COASTAL AREAS SINCE THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTHERLY WIND ONSET AND COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FOR COOLING TO OCCUR IN LOCATIONS LIKE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ
WHILE OTHER COASTAL AREAS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH TODAY IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON THAT IS ROTATING AROUND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST...MAINLY OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE
THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR EASTERN ALAMEDA...SANTA
CLARA...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR LATER TODAY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE ALONG
145W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY THURSDAY...WITH THAT
LOW THEN PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF CUTOFF LOW
MOVEMENT...IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THIS UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:26 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: MM


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010538
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS BROUGHT
A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION LAST NIGHT AND
TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONLY LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE OCEAN REMAINED IN THE
60S.

THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY GOING INTO
SUNDAY...AND ALSO WARM A BIT. THUS...WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF OUR WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY FORMING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST WHERE COOLING WILL OCCUR. COOLING MAY
ALSO OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS SANTA CRUZ IF SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OUR
AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE. THAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST BY MIDWEEK...THEN FORM A CUTOFF LOW
THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS CA LATER IN THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BEGIN IN OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. BUT HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE.
THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS CA RATHER QUICKLY...AND ENDS
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
DROPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OFFSHORE INITIALLY AND THEN TRACKS THE
LOW SLOWLY INLAND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND ON INTO SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK
IS RATHER LOW. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO VENTURE AN ESTIMATE ON WHEN
AND WHERE THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND A COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:39 PM PDT SATURDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL SHIFT TO THE COAST SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER
WINDS. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATE
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS BROUGHT
A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION LAST NIGHT AND
TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONLY LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE OCEAN REMAINED IN THE
60S.

THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY GOING INTO
SUNDAY...AND ALSO WARM A BIT. THUS...WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF OUR WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY FORMING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST WHERE COOLING WILL OCCUR. COOLING MAY
ALSO OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS SANTA CRUZ IF SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OUR
AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE. THAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST BY MIDWEEK...THEN FORM A CUTOFF LOW
THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS CA LATER IN THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BEGIN IN OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. BUT HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE.
THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS CA RATHER QUICKLY...AND ENDS
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
DROPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OFFSHORE INITIALLY AND THEN TRACKS THE
LOW SLOWLY INLAND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND ON INTO SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK
IS RATHER LOW. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO VENTURE AN ESTIMATE ON WHEN
AND WHERE THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND A COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE
ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED FROM 24 HOURS AGO BUT CAN STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO 30
KT AT SFO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO
30 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:39 PM PDT SATURDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL SHIFT TO THE COAST SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER
WINDS. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 12:10 PM PDT SATURDAY...TODAY`S MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HAVE GENERATED MODERATE SIZE LOCAL WAVES. THESE WAVES ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND
LARGE SHORE BREAK. BEACH OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL LIFEGUARDS
INDICATE THAT THESE HAZARDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT AREA
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010029
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
529 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED. COASTAL STRATUS
RETURNS TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:46 AM PDT SATURDAY...OFFSHORE BREEZES AND
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE READINGS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
THE 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH A FEW INLAND AREAS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO 6.9 MB
FROM ACV TO SFO...WITH 5.1 MB FROM WMC-SFO. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP SKIES STRATUS FREE WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

THE 18Z NAM IS STILL INDICATES A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS ON SUNDAY
REACHING SANTA CRUZ BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD AFFECT
SOME COASTAL TEMPS TOMORROW...BUT COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A LATE-SPRING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST BY MIDWEEK
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING COOL
TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE
ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED FROM 24 HOURS AGO BUT CAN STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO 30
KT AT SFO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO
30 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A THERMAL TROUGH RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH
SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS LEADING TO IMPROVE SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 12:10 PM PDT SATURDAY...TODAY`S MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HAVE GENERATED MODERATE SIZE LOCAL WAVES. THESE WAVES ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND
LARGE SHORE BREAK. BEACH OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL LIFEGUARDS
INDICATE THAT THESE HAZARDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT AREA
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 302152
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
252 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED. COASTAL STRATUS
RETURNS TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:46 AM PDT SATURDAY...OFFSHORE BREEZES AND
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE READINGS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
THE 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH A FEW INLAND AREAS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO 6.9 MB
FROM ACV TO SFO...WITH 5.1 MB FROM WMC-SFO. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP SKIES STRATUS FREE WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

THE 18Z NAM IS STILL INDICATES A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS ON SUNDAY
REACHING SANTA CRUZ BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD AFFECT
SOME COASTAL TEMPS TOMORROW...BUT COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A LATE-SPRING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST BY MIDWEEK
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING COOL
TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW RESIDES WITHIN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL BRING GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 20 TO 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED
TO REACH 10 T 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 AM PDT SATURDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEA
SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LEADING TO
IMPROVE SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 12:10 PM PDT SATURDAY...TODAY`S MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HAVE GENERATED MODERATE SIZE LOCAL WAVES. THESE WAVES ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND
LARGE SHORE BREAK. BEACH OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL LIFEGUARDS
INDICATE THAT THESE HAZARDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT AREA
BEACHES.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 9 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 302152
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
252 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED. COASTAL STRATUS
RETURNS TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:46 AM PDT SATURDAY...OFFSHORE BREEZES AND
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE READINGS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
THE 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH A FEW INLAND AREAS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO 6.9 MB
FROM ACV TO SFO...WITH 5.1 MB FROM WMC-SFO. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP SKIES STRATUS FREE WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

THE 18Z NAM IS STILL INDICATES A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS ON SUNDAY
REACHING SANTA CRUZ BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD AFFECT
SOME COASTAL TEMPS TOMORROW...BUT COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A LATE-SPRING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST BY MIDWEEK
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING COOL
TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW RESIDES WITHIN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL BRING GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 20 TO 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED
TO REACH 10 T 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 AM PDT SATURDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEA
SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LEADING TO
IMPROVE SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 12:10 PM PDT SATURDAY...TODAY`S MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HAVE GENERATED MODERATE SIZE LOCAL WAVES. THESE WAVES ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND
LARGE SHORE BREAK. BEACH OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL LIFEGUARDS
INDICATE THAT THESE HAZARDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT AREA
BEACHES.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 9 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 302145
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
245 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED. COASTAL STRATUS
RETURNS TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:46 AM PDT SATURDAY...OFFSHORE BREEZES AND
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE READINGS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
THE 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH A FEW INLAND AREAS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO 6.9 MB
FROM ACV TO SFO...WITH 5.1 MB FROM WMC-SFO. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP SKIES STRATUS FREE WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

THE 18Z NAM IS STILL INDICATES A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS ON SUNDAY
REACHING SANTA CRUZ BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD AFFECT
SOME COASTAL TEMPS TOMORROW...BUT COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A LATE-SPRING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST BY MIDWEEK
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING COOL
TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW RESIDES WITHIN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL BRING GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 20 TO 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED
TO REACH 10 T 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 AM PDT SATURDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEA
SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LEADING TO
IMPROVE SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301730
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1030 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THE HILLS THROUGH 10 AM AS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE
WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM
AFTERNOON TO FINISH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL STRATUS RETURNS TO THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPERATURES COOLED OFF OVERNIGHT DUE
TO NO CLOUD COVER...BUT ARE ALREADY WARMING NICELY ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. CURRENT READINGS ARE RUNNING FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
ALREADY...UP BY AS MANY AS 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GOING TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S
TO MID 80S EXPECTED. OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL KEEP
SKIES STRATUS FREE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

THE 12Z NAM IS STILL INDICATING A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS ON
SUNDAY REACHING SANTA CRUZ BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD AFFECT
SOME COASTAL TEMPS TOMORROW...BUT COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER...MORNING
CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER LATE SPRING TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDWEEK. THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING
COOL TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW RESIDES WITHIN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL BRING GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 20 TO 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED
TO REACH 10 T 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 AM PDT SATURDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEA
SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LEADING TO
IMPROVE SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THE HILLS THROUGH 10 AM AS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE
WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM
AFTERNOON TO FINISH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL STRATUS RETURNS TO THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPERATURES COOLED OFF OVERNIGHT DUE
TO NO CLOUD COVER...BUT ARE ALREADY WARMING NICELY ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. CURRENT READINGS ARE RUNNING FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
ALREADY...UP BY AS MANY AS 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GOING TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S
TO MID 80S EXPECTED. OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL KEEP
SKIES STRATUS FREE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

THE 12Z NAM IS STILL INDICATING A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS ON
SUNDAY REACHING SANTA CRUZ BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD AFFECT
SOME COASTAL TEMPS TOMORROW...BUT COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER...MORNING
CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER LATE SPRING TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDWEEK. THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING
COOL TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR WITH A
FEW RAPIDLY SHRINKING PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS AROUND THE MONTEREY
BAY THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO BECOME LIGHT BY
TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR AT KOAK POSBL THIS MORN AS LIGHT SFC WINDS
WILL CONTRAST WITH STRONGER WINDS 1000-2000 FEET ABOVE THE SFC.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... SATELLITE SHOWING RAPID CLEARING OF MVFR
CIGS SO EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR BY SUNRISE. LINGERING PATCH OF
MVFR POSBL OVER SAN BENITO COUNTY THRU 16Z. OTHERWISE... ONSHORE
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 AM PDT SATURDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEA
SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LEADING TO
IMPROVE SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...BAY AREA HILLS ABOVE 1000 FT TIL 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: LARRY


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THE HILLS THROUGH 10 AM AS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE
WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM
AFTERNOON TO FINISH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL STRATUS RETURNS TO THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOW
DROPPING INTO NEVADA AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO SET UP
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILLS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE NOW STARTING TO SHOW UP
IN THE DELTA WITH RAWS SITES UP IN THE HILLS REPORTING WIND GUSTS
FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. NORTHERLY GRADIENT FROM SFO TO ARCATA IS 8 MB
WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THERE`S STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY BUT THOSE SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY MORNING. THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC DOWNWARD MOTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING ADIABATIC WARMING TO THE BAY
AREA TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND MID
80S.

MORE OF AN EASTERLY WIND STAYS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM AND DRY AGAIN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM MODEL NOW SHOWS A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS COMING UP THE BIG
SUR COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME COASTAL COOLING BY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND MOST LIKELY
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERS THE OCEAN AND
THEN SPREADS INLAND AS OFFSHORE FLOW ENDS.

ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY
WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER LATE SPRING TROUGH ARRIVES BY WEDS AND BRINGS A COOLING
TREND TO THE REGION. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AS WELL LATER
WEDS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE STATE. ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SCATTERED/CONVECTIVE
BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO WIND OUT THE FIRST
WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR WITH A
FEW RAPIDLY SHRINKING PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS AROUND THE MONTEREY
BAY THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO BECOME LIGHT BY
TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR AT KOAK POSBL THIS MORN AS LIGHT SFC WINDS
WILL CONTRAST WITH STRONGER WINDS 1000-2000 FEET ABOVE THE SFC.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... SATELLITE SHOWING RAPID CLEARING OF MVFR
CIGS SO EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR BY SUNRISE. LINGERING PATCH OF
MVFR POSBL OVER SAN BENITO COUNTY THRU 16Z. OTHERWISE... ONSHORE
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:35 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.  THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...BAY AREA HILLS ABOVE 1000 FT TIL 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301041
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
341 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THE HILLS THROUGH 10 AM AS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE
WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM
AFTERNOON TO FINISH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL STRATUS RETURNS TO THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOW
DROPPING INTO NEVADA AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO SET UP
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILLS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE NOW STARTING TO SHOW UP
IN THE DELTA WITH RAWS SITES UP IN THE HILLS REPORTING WIND GUSTS
FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. NORTHERLY GRADIENT FROM SFO TO ARCATA IS 8 MB
WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THERE`S STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY BUT THOSE SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY MORNING. THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC DOWNWARD MOTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING ADIABATIC WARMING TO THE BAY
AREA TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND MID
80S.

MORE OF AN EASTERLY WIND STAYS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM AND DRY AGAIN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM MODEL NOW SHOWS A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS COMING UP THE BIG
SUR COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME COASTAL COOLING BY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND MOST LIKELY
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERS THE OCEAN AND
THEN SPREADS INLAND AS OFFSHORE FLOW ENDS.

ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY
WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER LATE SPRING TROUGH ARRIVES BY WEDS AND BRINGS A COOLING
TREND TO THE REGION. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AS WELL LATER
WEDS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE STATE. ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SCATTERED/CONVECTIVE
BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO WIND OUT THE FIRST
WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE LLWS AT KOAK
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS
OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT CIGS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE SF BAY AREA.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT NEAR MONTEREY BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS ON FRIDAY EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR RELATIVELY EARLY ON SATURDAY...BY 16Z. VFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:23 AM PDT SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THESE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...BAY AREA HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET TIL 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH
A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS A FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST.
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S AND 80S. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CONTINUED DRY. NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:56 PM PDT FRIDAY...TONIGHTS VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY BARES A STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY CAPTURED 24 HOURS AGO. STATIONARY WAVE CLOUDS HAVE ONCE
AGAIN FORMED ALONG THE SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY PENINSULA COAST WITH
LINES OF CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
THE DAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS THAT WERE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW. WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
48 MPH GUSTS REPORTED AT SFO. THE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT FROM
ACV TO SFO INCREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM 5.1 MB TO 8.4 MB THIS
EVENING IN DIRECT CORRELATION TO THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS REPORTED. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO SAC INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FROM 3.0 MB TO 3.6 MB WHILE THE GRADIENT FROM SFO AND WMC
EASED FROM 6.3 MB TO 0.9 MB. THE EASING OF THE GRADIENT FROM SFO
TO WMC IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE HILLS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY AS WELL AS
OVER THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES
HOLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AND 70S AND 80S INLAND. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE COAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY A
RETURNING COASTAL STRATUS LAYER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST BY MIDWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES
AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE LLWS AT KOAK
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS
OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT CIGS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE SF BAY AREA.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT NEAR MONTEREY BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS ON FRIDAY EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR RELATIVELY EARLY ON SATURDAY...BY 16Z. VFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 PM PDT FRIDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THESE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS AND SANTA
              CRUZ MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 11 PM PDT.
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300403
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH
A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS A FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST.
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S AND 80S. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CONTINUED DRY. NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:56 PM PDT FRIDAY...TONIGHTS VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY BARES A STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY CAPTURED 24 HOURS AGO. STATIONARY WAVE CLOUDS HAVE ONCE
AGAIN FORMED ALONG THE SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY PENINSULA COAST WITH
LINES OF CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
THE DAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS THAT WERE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW. WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
48 MPH GUSTS REPORTED AT SFO. THE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT FROM
ACV TO SFO INCREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM 5.1 MB TO 8.4 MB THIS
EVENING IN DIRECT CORRELATION TO THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS REPORTED. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO SAC INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FROM 3.0 MB TO 3.6 MB WHILE THE GRADIENT FROM SFO AND WMC
EASED FROM 6.3 MB TO 0.9 MB. THE EASING OF THE GRADIENT FROM SFO
TO WMC IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE HILLS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY AS WELL AS
OVER THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES
HOLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AND 70S AND 80S INLAND. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE COAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY A
RETURNING COASTAL STRATUS LAYER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST BY MIDWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES
AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY KSFO THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE
MAY ALSO BE LLWS AT KOAK OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT CIGS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE SF BAY AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LIKELY
OVERNIGHT NEAR MONTEREY BAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 16Z SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WITH AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT AT KSFO UNTIL
04Z. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER 04Z AND THEN INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS FRIDAY EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY BREAK UP FOR A TIME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR RELATIVELY EARLY
ON SATURDAY...BY 16Z. VFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 PM PDT FRIDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THESE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS AND SANTA
              CRUZ MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 11 PM PDT.
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300403
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH
A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS A FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST.
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S AND 80S. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CONTINUED DRY. NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:56 PM PDT FRIDAY...TONIGHTS VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY BARES A STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY CAPTURED 24 HOURS AGO. STATIONARY WAVE CLOUDS HAVE ONCE
AGAIN FORMED ALONG THE SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY PENINSULA COAST WITH
LINES OF CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
THE DAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS THAT WERE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW. WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
48 MPH GUSTS REPORTED AT SFO. THE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT FROM
ACV TO SFO INCREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM 5.1 MB TO 8.4 MB THIS
EVENING IN DIRECT CORRELATION TO THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS REPORTED. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO SAC INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FROM 3.0 MB TO 3.6 MB WHILE THE GRADIENT FROM SFO AND WMC
EASED FROM 6.3 MB TO 0.9 MB. THE EASING OF THE GRADIENT FROM SFO
TO WMC IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE HILLS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY AS WELL AS
OVER THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES
HOLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AND 70S AND 80S INLAND. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE COAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY A
RETURNING COASTAL STRATUS LAYER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST BY MIDWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES
AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY KSFO THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE
MAY ALSO BE LLWS AT KOAK OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT CIGS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE SF BAY AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LIKELY
OVERNIGHT NEAR MONTEREY BAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 16Z SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WITH AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT AT KSFO UNTIL
04Z. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER 04Z AND THEN INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS FRIDAY EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY BREAK UP FOR A TIME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR RELATIVELY EARLY
ON SATURDAY...BY 16Z. VFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 PM PDT FRIDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THESE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS AND SANTA
              CRUZ MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 11 PM PDT.
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 292346
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
446 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH
A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS A FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST.
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S AND 80S. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CONTINUED DRY. NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:56 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORNLY
HANGING ON ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH
THROUGH PIGEON POINT...AND IN THE MONTEREY BAY AND LOCALLY INLAND
FROM AROUND APTOS SOUTH TROUGH POINT SUR. THE REST OF THE DISTRICT
IS MOSTLY SUNNY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A FEW PLACES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE STRUGGLING
TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S...MAINLY MONTEREY...WATSONVILLE...AND SAN
FRANCISCO.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RAMPING UP FROM THE NORTH WITH 5.1
MB FROM ACV TO SFO. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER
WITH 6.3 MB BETWEEN SFO AND WMC...AND 3.0 MB FROM SFO TO SAC.
THESE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH TO OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BUT BEFORE THIS OCCURS...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALOFT WILL
TIGHTEN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
HILLS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 11 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...EAST
BAY HILLS AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WARMING
OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE
EXPECTED TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WILL BE COMMON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY A RETURNING COASTAL STRATUS LAYER.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE COAST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY KSFO THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE
MAY ALSO BE LLWS AT KOAK OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT CIGS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE SF BAY AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LIKELY
OVERNIGHT NEAR MONTEREY BAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 16Z SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WITH AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT AT KSFO UNTIL
04Z. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER 04Z AND THEN INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS FRIDAY EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY BREAK UP FOR A TIME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR RELATIVELY EARLY
ON SATURDAY...BY 16Z. VFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 PM PDT FRIDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL.
STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS AND SANTA
              CRUZ MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 11 PM PDT.
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: MM


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 292157
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH
A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS A FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST.
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S AND 80S. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CONTINUED DRY. NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:56 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORNLY
HANGING ON ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH
THROUGH PIGEON POINT...AND IN THE MONTEREY BAY AND LOCALLY INLAND
FROM AROUND APTOS SOUTH TROUGH POINT SUR. THE REST OF THE DISTRICT
IS MOSTLY SUNNY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A FEW PLACES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE STRUGGLING
TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S...MAINLY MONTEREY...WATSONVILLE...AND SAN
FRANCISCO.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RAMPING UP FROM THE NORTH WITH 5.1
MB FROM ACV TO SFO. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER
WITH 6.3 MB BETWEEN SFO AND WMC...AND 3.0 MB FROM SFO TO SAC.
THESE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH TO OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BUT BEFORE THIS OCCURS...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALOFT WILL
TIGHTEN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
HILLS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 11 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...EAST
BAY HILLS AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WARMING
OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE
EXPECTED TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WILL BE COMMON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY A RETURNING COASTAL STRATUS LAYER.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE COAST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:33 AM PDT FRIDAY...MONTEREY BAY REGION IS
STILL BEING IMPACTED BY MORNING STRATUS...BUT OTHER TERMINALS ARE
CURRENTLY VFR. EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AROUND
MONTEREY BAY WITH VFR EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING.
FORECASTING DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING WITH DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE FLOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LLWS FOR KOAK TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CONF IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KSFO 21-04Z. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSS. A
FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT STILL VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19-20Z. CIGS RETURN
THIS EVENING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 PM PDT FRIDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL.
STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS AND SANTA
                   CRUZ MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 11 PM.
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291738
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
AS A FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CONTINUED DRY. NEXT
TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND LEADING TO THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY ABOUT NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:39 AM PDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY SOUTH...WITH MUCH
OF SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA...SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES
UNDER LOW CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. THE FORT ORD PROFILER
INDICATES A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 2000 FEET...AND EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THUS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10
AM SATURDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...EAST BAY HILLS AND THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AFTER SOME BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF WITH WARMING OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. SUNDAY COULD BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER...HOWEVER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY SOME COASTAL STRATUS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STILL INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST
BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND
RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:33 AM PDT FRIDAY...MONTEREY BAY REGION IS
STILL BEING IMPACTED BY MORNING STRATUS...BUT OTHER TERMINALS ARE
CURRENTLY VFR. EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AROUND
MONTEREY BAY WITH VFR EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING.
FORECASTING DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING WITH DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE FLOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LLWS FOR KOAK TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CONF IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KSFO 21-04Z. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSS. A
FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT STILL VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19-20Z. CIGS RETURN
THIS EVENING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:04 AM PDT FRIDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND
FRESH SWELL. STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291639
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
939 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
AS A FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CONTINUED DRY. NEXT
TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND LEADING TO THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY ABOUT NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:39 AM PDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY SOUTH...WITH MUCH
OF SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA...SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES
UNDER LOW CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. THE FORT ORD PROFILER
INDICATES A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 2000 FEET...AND EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THUS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10
AM SATURDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...EAST BAY HILLS AND THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AFTER SOME BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF WITH WARMING OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. SUNDAY COULD BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER...HOWEVER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY SOME COASTAL STRATUS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STILL INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST
BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND
RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT FRIDAY...A HIGH CLOUD DECK IS
CURRENTLY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW SET TO SLIDE IN EAST OF THE SIERRA LATER
TODAY. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGERING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY... WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AROUND THE REGION AFTER 3PM LST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSBL THRU 16-17Z. STRONG WEST
WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT OR HIGHER AFTER 03Z SAT.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
RETURN LATER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:04 AM PDT FRIDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND
FRESH SWELL. STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
438 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. STRONG WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS A
FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO
THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S. LIGHTER WINDS
SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CONTINUED DRY. NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY ABOUT NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:32 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1200
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS NOTED
LAST NIGHT WE HAVE GALES BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN AND ITS BEEN NOTED
THAT TWO OF OUR COASTAL BUOYS ARE NOW SHOWING SST AT 49 DEGREES
WITH HALF MOON BAY BUOY NOW DIPPING TO 50. SPRING TIME IS OFTEN
WHEN WE SEE OUR COLDEST SST BUT ITS BEEN AWHILE SINCE THE OCEAN
SST HAVE BEEN THIS COLD. ANYWAY THESE COLD TEMPS ARE IDEAL FOR
STRATUS PRODUCTION OVER THE OCEAN AND WERE SEEING MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS INUNDATED EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS IT LOOKS
LIKE A NICE FRIDAY ON TAP TO WIND OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES...60S A FEW MILES INLAND
AND LOTS OF 70S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

MODELS THEN DRIVE A POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARDS
RENO BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FOR BRINGING STRONG
WINDS TO THE BAY AREA HILLS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY AREA HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET FROM 11 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 10 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING BUT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED WITH SOME BUFFER TIMING. STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
FIRST SHOW UP IN THE NAPA HILLS AND AROUND MT DIABLO. COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AND DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE 700-925
MB LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS ALOFT SURFACING OVER THE HIGHER
RIDGELINES ABOVE 1500 FEET WHERE GUSTS TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. BELOW 1000 FEET WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND NO
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SUN COMES UP AND THE MORNING INVERSIONS MIX OUT SUSPECT WE`LL SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND OAKLAND AND THE
DELTA.

AFTER SOME BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION
LEADING TO AFTERNOON READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
BAY AREA DESPITE MARGINALLY WARM 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 13 CELSIUS.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY BUT OFFSHORE WINDS LOOK
MUCH LIGHTER THAT DAY AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING SATURDAY AS
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. NONETHELESS SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE
A NICE BAY AREA AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF READINGS IN THE 70S AND
80S AND LITTLE OR NO MARINE LAYER OF NOTE...EVEN AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY SOME COASTAL STRATUS.

MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING WEDS
INDUCING A COOLING TREND BACK TO BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AS
CORE OF LOW REACHES THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP AN UPPER LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF SAN FRANCISCO THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IMPLYING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT FRIDAY...A HIGH CLOUD DECK IS
CURRENTLY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW SET TO SLIDE IN EAST OF THE SIERRA LATER
TODAY. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGERING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY... WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 KT POSBL AROUND THE REGION AFTER 3PM LST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSBL THRU 16-17Z. STRONG WEST
WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT OR HIGHER AFTER 03Z SAT.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
RETURN LATER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:29 AM PDT FRIDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FROM PESCADERO NORTHWARD THROUGH PT ARENA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL. STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291032
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
332 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. STRONG WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS A
FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO
THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S. LIGHTER WINDS
SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CONTINUED DRY. NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY ABOUT NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:32 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1200
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT MANY OF THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS NOTED
LAST NIGHT WE HAVE GALES BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN AND ITS BEEN NOTED
THAT TWO OF OUR COASTAL BUOYS ARE NOW SHOWING SST AT 49 DEGREES
WITH HALF MOON BAY BUOY NOW DIPPING TO 50. SPRING TIME IS OFTEN
WHEN WE SEE OUR COLDEST SST BUT ITS BEEN AWHILE SINCE THE OCEAN
SST HAVE BEEN THIS COLD. ANYWAY THESE COLD TEMPS ARE IDEAL FOR
STRATUS PRODUCTION OVER THE OCEAN AND WERE SEEING MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS INUNDATED EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS IT LOOKS
LIKE A NICE FRIDAY ON TAP TO WIND OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES...60S A FEW MILES INLAND
AND LOTS OF 70S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.

MODELS THEN DRIVE A POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARDS
RENO BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FOR BRINGING STRONG
WINDS TO THE BAY AREA HILLS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY AREA HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET FROM 11 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 10 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING BUT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED WITH SOME BUFFER TIMING. STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
FIRST SHOW UP IN THE NAPA HILLS AND AROUND MT DIABLO. COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AND DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE 700-925
MB LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS ALOFT SURFACING OVER THE HIGHER
RIDGELINES ABOVE 1500 FEET WHERE GUSTS TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. BELOW 1000 FEET WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND NO
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SUN COMES UP AND THE MORNING INVERSIONS MIX OUT SUSPECT WE`LL SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND OAKLAND AND THE
DELTA.

AFTER SOME BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION
LEADING TO AFTERNOON READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
BAY AREA DESPITE MARGINALLY WARM 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 13 CELSIUS.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY BUT OFFSHORE WINDS LOOK
MUCH LIGHTER THAT DAY AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING SATURDAY AS
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. NONETHELESS SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE
A NICE BAY AREA AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF READINGS IN THE 70S AND
80S AND LITTLE OR NO MARINE LAYER OF NOTE...EVEN AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY SOME COASTAL STRATUS.

MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING WEDS
INDUCING A COOLING TREND BACK TO BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AS
CORE OF LOW REACHES THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP AN UPPER LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF SAN FRANCISCO THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IMPLYING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE AND MIXING DIMINISHES.
CLEARING ON FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED BETWEEN 16-18Z MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT PERHAPS LATER AROUND KMRY. LOCALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 09Z AND
CONTINUE UNTIL 17Z. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED STARTING AROUND 22Z FOR GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 KNOTS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING MODERATE AND
GUSTY WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT FRIDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN GALES WILL BE LIKELY.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH
STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS BY SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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