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000
FXUS66 KMTR 071014
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
314 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL
DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE RETURNING TO
THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FILTERED INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FORT ORD PROFILER IS VERY INTERESTING TODAY AND
HAS GONE FROM A SOLID 2000 FEET OR SO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO A
VERY UNORGANIZED ALMOST MIXED OUT LAYER THIS MORNING. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT CHANGES TODAY. THE POORLY DEFINED MARINE
LAYER IS LIKELY ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE GRADIENT IS 3 MB FROM THE
WEST AND ABOUT 1 MB FROM THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO MAKE IS
FARTHER INLAND BY SUNRISE.

SYNOPTICALLY CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS IN MOST SPOTS EXPECTED BY NOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED VALUES FORECAST TO LOWER TO AROUND ZERO
AND MUCAPE NUMBERS LOCALLY OVER 250 J/KG. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY
BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS HOWEVER WITH
THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS GOING. MODELS DO
INDICATE COASTAL DRIZZLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY LEADING TO THE END OF ANY SHOWERS. IT WILL THEN BE
REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING DOWN MOST OF THE COAST.
PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH THE TROF WILL KEEP TEMPS
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. A FEW INLAND SPOTS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK OUT TO JULY 20TH SOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:59 PM PDT MONDAY...A GRADUAL RETURN OF
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. KSFO REPORTS A BKN MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 18Z.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-22 KNOTS 22Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES BUT STILL EXPECTING
THE STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR IS FORECAST VERY
LATE WITH VFR RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED THROUGH THE EVENING USUALLY NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT LEFT IT IN AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR KSNS AND
KMRY EARLY TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 071014
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
314 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL
DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE RETURNING TO
THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FILTERED INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FORT ORD PROFILER IS VERY INTERESTING TODAY AND
HAS GONE FROM A SOLID 2000 FEET OR SO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO A
VERY UNORGANIZED ALMOST MIXED OUT LAYER THIS MORNING. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT CHANGES TODAY. THE POORLY DEFINED MARINE
LAYER IS LIKELY ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE GRADIENT IS 3 MB FROM THE
WEST AND ABOUT 1 MB FROM THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO MAKE IS
FARTHER INLAND BY SUNRISE.

SYNOPTICALLY CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS IN MOST SPOTS EXPECTED BY NOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED VALUES FORECAST TO LOWER TO AROUND ZERO
AND MUCAPE NUMBERS LOCALLY OVER 250 J/KG. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY
BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS HOWEVER WITH
THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS GOING. MODELS DO
INDICATE COASTAL DRIZZLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY LEADING TO THE END OF ANY SHOWERS. IT WILL THEN BE
REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING DOWN MOST OF THE COAST.
PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH THE TROF WILL KEEP TEMPS
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. A FEW INLAND SPOTS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK OUT TO JULY 20TH SOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:59 PM PDT MONDAY...A GRADUAL RETURN OF
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. KSFO REPORTS A BKN MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 18Z.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-22 KNOTS 22Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES BUT STILL EXPECTING
THE STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR IS FORECAST VERY
LATE WITH VFR RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED THROUGH THE EVENING USUALLY NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT LEFT IT IN AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR KSNS AND
KMRY EARLY TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 071014
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
314 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL
DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE RETURNING TO
THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FILTERED INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FORT ORD PROFILER IS VERY INTERESTING TODAY AND
HAS GONE FROM A SOLID 2000 FEET OR SO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO A
VERY UNORGANIZED ALMOST MIXED OUT LAYER THIS MORNING. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT CHANGES TODAY. THE POORLY DEFINED MARINE
LAYER IS LIKELY ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE GRADIENT IS 3 MB FROM THE
WEST AND ABOUT 1 MB FROM THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO MAKE IS
FARTHER INLAND BY SUNRISE.

SYNOPTICALLY CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS IN MOST SPOTS EXPECTED BY NOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED VALUES FORECAST TO LOWER TO AROUND ZERO
AND MUCAPE NUMBERS LOCALLY OVER 250 J/KG. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY
BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS HOWEVER WITH
THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS GOING. MODELS DO
INDICATE COASTAL DRIZZLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY LEADING TO THE END OF ANY SHOWERS. IT WILL THEN BE
REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING DOWN MOST OF THE COAST.
PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH THE TROF WILL KEEP TEMPS
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. A FEW INLAND SPOTS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK OUT TO JULY 20TH SOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:59 PM PDT MONDAY...A GRADUAL RETURN OF
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. KSFO REPORTS A BKN MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 18Z.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-22 KNOTS 22Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES BUT STILL EXPECTING
THE STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR IS FORECAST VERY
LATE WITH VFR RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED THROUGH THE EVENING USUALLY NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT LEFT IT IN AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR KSNS AND
KMRY EARLY TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 071014
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
314 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL
DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE RETURNING TO
THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FILTERED INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FORT ORD PROFILER IS VERY INTERESTING TODAY AND
HAS GONE FROM A SOLID 2000 FEET OR SO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO A
VERY UNORGANIZED ALMOST MIXED OUT LAYER THIS MORNING. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT CHANGES TODAY. THE POORLY DEFINED MARINE
LAYER IS LIKELY ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE GRADIENT IS 3 MB FROM THE
WEST AND ABOUT 1 MB FROM THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO MAKE IS
FARTHER INLAND BY SUNRISE.

SYNOPTICALLY CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS IN MOST SPOTS EXPECTED BY NOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED VALUES FORECAST TO LOWER TO AROUND ZERO
AND MUCAPE NUMBERS LOCALLY OVER 250 J/KG. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY
BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS HOWEVER WITH
THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS GOING. MODELS DO
INDICATE COASTAL DRIZZLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY LEADING TO THE END OF ANY SHOWERS. IT WILL THEN BE
REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING DOWN MOST OF THE COAST.
PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH THE TROF WILL KEEP TEMPS
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. A FEW INLAND SPOTS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK OUT TO JULY 20TH SOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:59 PM PDT MONDAY...A GRADUAL RETURN OF
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. KSFO REPORTS A BKN MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 18Z.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-22 KNOTS 22Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES BUT STILL EXPECTING
THE STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR IS FORECAST VERY
LATE WITH VFR RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED THROUGH THE EVENING USUALLY NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT LEFT IT IN AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR KSNS AND
KMRY EARLY TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 070611
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1111 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEAR THE
COAST AND A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAKENING OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALLOWED FOR GREATER MIXING OUT OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS TODAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ITS
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES HOWEVER...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INLAND AROUND THE BAYS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE VALLEYS...AND PRETTY
SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. NEW 00Z RUNS OF
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INLAND
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. ITS APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY...AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND THUS
SOMEWHAT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
QUICK EXAMINATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETER OUTPUT FROM NEW
00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS A BIT LATER TIMING THAN BEFORE. THE
INITIAL RISK NOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME AND FOCUSED AROUND THE LANDFALLING UPPER LOW
CENTER ITSELF...SO OVER MORE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT.
AND THEN AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND IT
WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
THEN DROP PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:59 PM PDT MONDAY...A GRADUAL RETURN OF
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. KSFO REPORTS A BKN MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 18Z.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-22 KNOTS 22Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES BUT STILL EXPECTING
THE STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR IS FORECAST VERY
LATE WITH VFR RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED THROUGH THE EVENING USUALLY NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT LEFT IT IN AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR KSNS AND
KMRY EARLY TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 070611
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1111 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEAR THE
COAST AND A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAKENING OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALLOWED FOR GREATER MIXING OUT OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS TODAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ITS
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES HOWEVER...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INLAND AROUND THE BAYS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE VALLEYS...AND PRETTY
SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. NEW 00Z RUNS OF
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INLAND
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. ITS APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY...AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND THUS
SOMEWHAT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
QUICK EXAMINATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETER OUTPUT FROM NEW
00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS A BIT LATER TIMING THAN BEFORE. THE
INITIAL RISK NOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME AND FOCUSED AROUND THE LANDFALLING UPPER LOW
CENTER ITSELF...SO OVER MORE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT.
AND THEN AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND IT
WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
THEN DROP PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:59 PM PDT MONDAY...A GRADUAL RETURN OF
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. KSFO REPORTS A BKN MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 18Z.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-22 KNOTS 22Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES BUT STILL EXPECTING
THE STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR IS FORECAST VERY
LATE WITH VFR RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED THROUGH THE EVENING USUALLY NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT LEFT IT IN AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR KSNS AND
KMRY EARLY TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 070611
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1111 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEAR THE
COAST AND A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAKENING OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALLOWED FOR GREATER MIXING OUT OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS TODAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ITS
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES HOWEVER...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INLAND AROUND THE BAYS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE VALLEYS...AND PRETTY
SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. NEW 00Z RUNS OF
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INLAND
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. ITS APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY...AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND THUS
SOMEWHAT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
QUICK EXAMINATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETER OUTPUT FROM NEW
00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS A BIT LATER TIMING THAN BEFORE. THE
INITIAL RISK NOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME AND FOCUSED AROUND THE LANDFALLING UPPER LOW
CENTER ITSELF...SO OVER MORE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT.
AND THEN AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND IT
WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
THEN DROP PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:59 PM PDT MONDAY...A GRADUAL RETURN OF
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. KSFO REPORTS A BKN MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 18Z.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-22 KNOTS 22Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONTINUES BUT STILL EXPECTING
THE STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR IS FORECAST VERY
LATE WITH VFR RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED THROUGH THE EVENING USUALLY NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT LEFT IT IN AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR KSNS AND
KMRY EARLY TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 070439 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
935 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEAR THE
COAST AND A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAKENING OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALLOWED FOR GREATER MIXING OUT OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS TODAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ITS
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES HOWEVER...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INLAND AROUND THE BAYS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE VALLEYS...AND PRETTY
SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. NEW 00Z RUNS OF
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INLAND
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. ITS APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY...AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND THUS
SOMEWHAT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
QUICK EXAMINATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETER OUTPUT FROM NEW
00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS A BIT LATER TIMING THAN BEFORE. THE
INITIAL RISK NOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME AND FOCUSED AROUND THE LANDFALLING UPPER LOW
CENTER ITSELF...SO OVER MORE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT.
AND THEN AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND IT
WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
THEN DROP PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:12 PM PDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF POINT REYES AND PROGGED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL
COOLING AND SUBSEQUENTLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...THE MARINE LAYER THAT ONCE DEEPENED SINCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED IN DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON...APPROX 1400-2100
FEET DEEP. MANY PLACES REPORTED LIGHT DRIZZLE AGAIN LAST NIGHT.
IN LIGHT OF CONTINUED HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ONCE NIGHT-TIME COOLING
RETURNS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.
PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE.

DIURNAL MIXING WAS SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AND FOG
EARLIER TODAY. THERE`S MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MODELED FORECASTS
ARE AMBITIOUS HOWEVER WITH RETURNING THE STRATUS AND FOG BACK TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. 00Z TAFS INDICATE A GENERAL TREND TOWARD IFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...AT LEAST WHILE DAYLIGHT LINGERS. 00Z TAF INDICATES
TEMPO MVFR CIG 04Z-08Z...MAY BE A BIT EARLY...BUT ALSO DON`T WANT
TO GO TOO LATE GIVEN SFO-SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT IS AT HEALTHY 4 MB
AT THE MOMENT. IF THE MARINE LAYER STAYS COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT THEN
CIGS MAY BE CLOSER TO IFR BY TUE MORNING...NOT INDICATED IN THE TAF
YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERING A BIT AS TO WHEN THE STRATUS AND
FOG REDEVELOP. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A REDUCED DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHTTIME COOLING
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE MARINE INVERSION ALL SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. TEMPO IFR FORECAST
FOR KSNS AND KMRY 03Z-08Z. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 070439 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
935 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEAR THE
COAST AND A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAKENING OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALLOWED FOR GREATER MIXING OUT OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS TODAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ITS
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES HOWEVER...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INLAND AROUND THE BAYS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE VALLEYS...AND PRETTY
SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. NEW 00Z RUNS OF
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INLAND
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. ITS APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY...AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND THUS
SOMEWHAT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
QUICK EXAMINATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETER OUTPUT FROM NEW
00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS A BIT LATER TIMING THAN BEFORE. THE
INITIAL RISK NOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME AND FOCUSED AROUND THE LANDFALLING UPPER LOW
CENTER ITSELF...SO OVER MORE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT.
AND THEN AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND IT
WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
THEN DROP PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:12 PM PDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF POINT REYES AND PROGGED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL
COOLING AND SUBSEQUENTLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...THE MARINE LAYER THAT ONCE DEEPENED SINCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED IN DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON...APPROX 1400-2100
FEET DEEP. MANY PLACES REPORTED LIGHT DRIZZLE AGAIN LAST NIGHT.
IN LIGHT OF CONTINUED HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ONCE NIGHT-TIME COOLING
RETURNS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.
PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE.

DIURNAL MIXING WAS SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AND FOG
EARLIER TODAY. THERE`S MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MODELED FORECASTS
ARE AMBITIOUS HOWEVER WITH RETURNING THE STRATUS AND FOG BACK TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. 00Z TAFS INDICATE A GENERAL TREND TOWARD IFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...AT LEAST WHILE DAYLIGHT LINGERS. 00Z TAF INDICATES
TEMPO MVFR CIG 04Z-08Z...MAY BE A BIT EARLY...BUT ALSO DON`T WANT
TO GO TOO LATE GIVEN SFO-SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT IS AT HEALTHY 4 MB
AT THE MOMENT. IF THE MARINE LAYER STAYS COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT THEN
CIGS MAY BE CLOSER TO IFR BY TUE MORNING...NOT INDICATED IN THE TAF
YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERING A BIT AS TO WHEN THE STRATUS AND
FOG REDEVELOP. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A REDUCED DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHTTIME COOLING
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE MARINE INVERSION ALL SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. TEMPO IFR FORECAST
FOR KSNS AND KMRY 03Z-08Z. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 070439 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
935 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEAR THE
COAST AND A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAKENING OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALLOWED FOR GREATER MIXING OUT OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS TODAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ITS
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES HOWEVER...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INLAND AROUND THE BAYS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE VALLEYS...AND PRETTY
SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. NEW 00Z RUNS OF
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INLAND
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. ITS APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY...AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND THUS
SOMEWHAT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
QUICK EXAMINATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETER OUTPUT FROM NEW
00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS A BIT LATER TIMING THAN BEFORE. THE
INITIAL RISK NOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME AND FOCUSED AROUND THE LANDFALLING UPPER LOW
CENTER ITSELF...SO OVER MORE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT.
AND THEN AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND IT
WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
THEN DROP PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:12 PM PDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF POINT REYES AND PROGGED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL
COOLING AND SUBSEQUENTLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...THE MARINE LAYER THAT ONCE DEEPENED SINCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED IN DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON...APPROX 1400-2100
FEET DEEP. MANY PLACES REPORTED LIGHT DRIZZLE AGAIN LAST NIGHT.
IN LIGHT OF CONTINUED HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ONCE NIGHT-TIME COOLING
RETURNS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.
PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE.

DIURNAL MIXING WAS SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AND FOG
EARLIER TODAY. THERE`S MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MODELED FORECASTS
ARE AMBITIOUS HOWEVER WITH RETURNING THE STRATUS AND FOG BACK TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. 00Z TAFS INDICATE A GENERAL TREND TOWARD IFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...AT LEAST WHILE DAYLIGHT LINGERS. 00Z TAF INDICATES
TEMPO MVFR CIG 04Z-08Z...MAY BE A BIT EARLY...BUT ALSO DON`T WANT
TO GO TOO LATE GIVEN SFO-SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT IS AT HEALTHY 4 MB
AT THE MOMENT. IF THE MARINE LAYER STAYS COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT THEN
CIGS MAY BE CLOSER TO IFR BY TUE MORNING...NOT INDICATED IN THE TAF
YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERING A BIT AS TO WHEN THE STRATUS AND
FOG REDEVELOP. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A REDUCED DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHTTIME COOLING
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE MARINE INVERSION ALL SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. TEMPO IFR FORECAST
FOR KSNS AND KMRY 03Z-08Z. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 070430
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
930 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTH BAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEAR THE COAST AND A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAKENING OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALLOWED FOR GREATER MIXING OUT OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS TODAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ITS
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES HOWEVER...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INLAND AROUND THE BAYS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE VALLEYS...AND PRETTY
SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. NEW 00Z RUNS OF
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INLAND
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. ITS APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY...AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND THUS
SOMEWHAT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
QUICK EXAMINATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETER OUTPUT FROM NEW
00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS A BIT LATER TIMING THAN BEFORE. THE
INITIAL RISK NOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME AND FOCUSED AROUND THE LANDFALLING UPPER LOW
CENTER ITSELF...SO OVER MORE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT.
AND THEN AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND IT
WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
THEN DROP PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:12 PM PDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF POINT REYES AND PROGGED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL
COOLING AND SUBSEQUENTLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...THE MARINE LAYER THAT ONCE DEEPENED SINCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED IN DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON...APPROX 1400-2100
FEET DEEP. MANY PLACES REPORTED LIGHT DRIZZLE AGAIN LAST NIGHT.
IN LIGHT OF CONTINUED HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ONCE NIGHT-TIME COOLING
RETURNS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.
PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE.

DIURNAL MIXING WAS SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AND FOG
EARLIER TODAY. THERE`S MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MODELED FORECASTS
ARE AMBITIOUS HOWEVER WITH RETURNING THE STRATUS AND FOG BACK TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. 00Z TAFS INDICATE A GENERAL TREND TOWARD IFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...AT LEAST WHILE DAYLIGHT LINGERS. 00Z TAF INDICATES
TEMPO MVFR CIG 04Z-08Z...MAY BE A BIT EARLY...BUT ALSO DON`T WANT
TO GO TOO LATE GIVEN SFO-SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT IS AT HEALTHY 4 MB
AT THE MOMENT. IF THE MARINE LAYER STAYS COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT THEN
CIGS MAY BE CLOSER TO IFR BY TUE MORNING...NOT INDICATED IN THE TAF
YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERING A BIT AS TO WHEN THE STRATUS AND
FOG REDEVELOP. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A REDUCED DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHTTIME COOLING
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE MARINE INVERSION ALL SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. TEMPO IFR FORECAST
FOR KSNS AND KMRY 03Z-08Z. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 070430
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
930 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS...PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL COASTAL DRIZZLE. AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTH BAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEAR THE COAST AND A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 PM PDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING THIN HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAKENING OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALLOWED FOR GREATER MIXING OUT OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS TODAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ITS
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES HOWEVER...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INLAND AROUND THE BAYS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE VALLEYS...AND PRETTY
SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. NEW 00Z RUNS OF
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INLAND
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. ITS APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY...AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND THUS
SOMEWHAT COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
QUICK EXAMINATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETER OUTPUT FROM NEW
00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS A BIT LATER TIMING THAN BEFORE. THE
INITIAL RISK NOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME AND FOCUSED AROUND THE LANDFALLING UPPER LOW
CENTER ITSELF...SO OVER MORE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT.
AND THEN AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND IT
WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
THEN DROP PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:12 PM PDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF POINT REYES AND PROGGED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL
COOLING AND SUBSEQUENTLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...THE MARINE LAYER THAT ONCE DEEPENED SINCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED IN DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON...APPROX 1400-2100
FEET DEEP. MANY PLACES REPORTED LIGHT DRIZZLE AGAIN LAST NIGHT.
IN LIGHT OF CONTINUED HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ONCE NIGHT-TIME COOLING
RETURNS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.
PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE.

DIURNAL MIXING WAS SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AND FOG
EARLIER TODAY. THERE`S MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MODELED FORECASTS
ARE AMBITIOUS HOWEVER WITH RETURNING THE STRATUS AND FOG BACK TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. 00Z TAFS INDICATE A GENERAL TREND TOWARD IFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...AT LEAST WHILE DAYLIGHT LINGERS. 00Z TAF INDICATES
TEMPO MVFR CIG 04Z-08Z...MAY BE A BIT EARLY...BUT ALSO DON`T WANT
TO GO TOO LATE GIVEN SFO-SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT IS AT HEALTHY 4 MB
AT THE MOMENT. IF THE MARINE LAYER STAYS COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT THEN
CIGS MAY BE CLOSER TO IFR BY TUE MORNING...NOT INDICATED IN THE TAF
YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERING A BIT AS TO WHEN THE STRATUS AND
FOG REDEVELOP. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A REDUCED DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHTTIME COOLING
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE MARINE INVERSION ALL SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. TEMPO IFR FORECAST
FOR KSNS AND KMRY 03Z-08Z. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:52 PM MONDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 070039
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
539 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG AND COASTAL DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING MIXED OUT WELL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SOUTH OF BIG SUR ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
385 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS AND THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND MAKE A PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT. WHILE DRIZZLE IS ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW IT BEING
MORE PATCHY THAN THIS MORNING. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HELP TO
DEEPEN OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. THUS...GOOD INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL LOCATIONS WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR
REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE
AGENCIES AND ANY OTHERS THAT MAY BE CONCERNED OF CONVECTION. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUT AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:12 PM PDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF POINT REYES AND PROGGED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL
COOLING AND SUBSEQUENTLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...THE MARINE LAYER THAT ONCE DEEPENED SINCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED IN DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON...APPROX 1400-2100
FEET DEEP. MANY PLACES REPORTED LIGHT DRIZZLE AGAIN LAST NIGHT.
IN LIGHT OF CONTINUED HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ONCE NIGHT-TIME COOLING
RETURNS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.
PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE.

DIURNAL MIXING WAS SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AND FOG
EARLIER TODAY. THERE`S MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MODELED FORECASTS
ARE AMBITIOUS HOWEVER WITH RETURNING THE STRATUS AND FOG BACK TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. 00Z TAFS INDICATE A GENERAL TREND TOWARD IFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...AT LEAST WHILE DAYLIGHT LINGERS. 00Z TAF INDICATES
TEMPO MVFR CIG 04Z-08Z...MAY BE A BIT EARLY...BUT ALSO DON`T WANT
TO GO TOO LATE GIVEN SFO-SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT IS AT HEALTHY 4 MB
AT THE MOMENT. IF THE MARINE LAYER STAYS COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT THEN
CIGS MAY BE CLOSER TO IFR BY TUE MORNING...NOT INDICATED IN THE TAF
YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERING A BIT AS TO WHEN THE STRATUS AND
FOG REDEVELOP. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A REDUCED DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHTTIME COOLING
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE MARINE INVERSION ALL SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. TEMPO IFR FORECAST
FOR KSNS AND KMRY 03Z-08Z. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:43 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 070039
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
539 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG AND COASTAL DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING MIXED OUT WELL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SOUTH OF BIG SUR ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
385 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS AND THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND MAKE A PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT. WHILE DRIZZLE IS ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW IT BEING
MORE PATCHY THAN THIS MORNING. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HELP TO
DEEPEN OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. THUS...GOOD INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL LOCATIONS WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR
REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE
AGENCIES AND ANY OTHERS THAT MAY BE CONCERNED OF CONVECTION. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUT AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:12 PM PDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF POINT REYES AND PROGGED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL
COOLING AND SUBSEQUENTLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...THE MARINE LAYER THAT ONCE DEEPENED SINCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED IN DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON...APPROX 1400-2100
FEET DEEP. MANY PLACES REPORTED LIGHT DRIZZLE AGAIN LAST NIGHT.
IN LIGHT OF CONTINUED HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ONCE NIGHT-TIME COOLING
RETURNS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.
PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE.

DIURNAL MIXING WAS SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AND FOG
EARLIER TODAY. THERE`S MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MODELED FORECASTS
ARE AMBITIOUS HOWEVER WITH RETURNING THE STRATUS AND FOG BACK TO
THE AREA TONIGHT. 00Z TAFS INDICATE A GENERAL TREND TOWARD IFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...AT LEAST WHILE DAYLIGHT LINGERS. 00Z TAF INDICATES
TEMPO MVFR CIG 04Z-08Z...MAY BE A BIT EARLY...BUT ALSO DON`T WANT
TO GO TOO LATE GIVEN SFO-SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT IS AT HEALTHY 4 MB
AT THE MOMENT. IF THE MARINE LAYER STAYS COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT THEN
CIGS MAY BE CLOSER TO IFR BY TUE MORNING...NOT INDICATED IN THE TAF
YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERING A BIT AS TO WHEN THE STRATUS AND
FOG REDEVELOP. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A REDUCED DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHTTIME COOLING
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE MARINE INVERSION ALL SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. TEMPO IFR FORECAST
FOR KSNS AND KMRY 03Z-08Z. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:43 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 062051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
151 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG AND COASTAL DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING MIXED OUT WELL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SOUTH OF BIG SUR ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
385 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS AND THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND MAKE A PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT. WHILE DRIZZLE IS ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW IT BEING
MORE PATCHY THAN THIS MORNING. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HELP TO
DEEPEN OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. THUS...GOOD INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL LOCATIONS WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR
REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE
AGENCIES AND ANY OTHERS THAT MAY BE CONCERNED OF CONVECTION. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUT AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT MONDAY... A WEAK UPPER LOW
LINGERING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE FLOW AND VFR
CONDS TODAY. MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INLAND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS EARLY ARRIVAL AND PERSIST AS LONG AS
OR SLIGHTLY LATER FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INLAND.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SUST WINDS 15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR RETURNS AOA 05Z
TUE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR NORTH AND SOUTH MONTEREY BAY...
WITH MVFR THRU 19Z AT KWVI. ONSHORE FLOW SUST 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO
15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS BY 01-02Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:43 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 062051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
151 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG AND COASTAL DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING MIXED OUT WELL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SOUTH OF BIG SUR ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
385 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS AND THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND MAKE A PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT. WHILE DRIZZLE IS ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW IT BEING
MORE PATCHY THAN THIS MORNING. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HELP TO
DEEPEN OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. THUS...GOOD INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
WEST COAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL LOCATIONS WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR
REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS
AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE
AGENCIES AND ANY OTHERS THAT MAY BE CONCERNED OF CONVECTION. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUT AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT MONDAY... A WEAK UPPER LOW
LINGERING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE FLOW AND VFR
CONDS TODAY. MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INLAND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS EARLY ARRIVAL AND PERSIST AS LONG AS
OR SLIGHTLY LATER FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INLAND.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SUST WINDS 15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR RETURNS AOA 05Z
TUE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR NORTH AND SOUTH MONTEREY BAY...
WITH MVFR THRU 19Z AT KWVI. ONSHORE FLOW SUST 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO
15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS BY 01-02Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:43 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 061750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
COOLER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT MONDAY...A 2000 FOOT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS
PUSHING WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS
REPORTED ALONG MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH SOME SITES PICKING UP A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
MARINE LAYER...DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WELL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TO 80S INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PLEASE
READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO OUR AREA IS
MAINTAINING A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ALLOWED LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH IS DUE IN PART TO WARMER-
THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK ESE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW`S APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS COVER...AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME COOLING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEARER AND THEN MOVES INLAND. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THERE IS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THUS...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AND SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. BUT WHEN AND WHERE THAT PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP IS THE
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
DEVELOP PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SF PENINSULA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LOW. DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED TO
BLANKET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE AGENCIES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT MONDAY... A WEAK UPPER LOW
LINGERING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE FLOW AND VFR
CONDS TODAY. MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INLAND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS EARLY ARRIVAL AND PERSIST AS LONG AS
OR SLIGHTLY LATER FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INLAND.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SUST WINDS 15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR RETURNS AOA 05Z
TUE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR NORTH AND SOUTH MONTEREY BAY...
WITH MVFR THRU 19Z AT KWVI. ONSHORE FLOW SUST 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO
15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS BY 01-02Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:43 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 061609
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
909 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
COOLER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT MONDAY...A 2000 FOOT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS
PUSHING WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS
REPORTED ALONG MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH SOME SITES PICKING UP A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
MARINE LAYER...DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WELL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TO 80S INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PLEASE
READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO OUR AREA IS
MAINTAINING A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ALLOWED LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH IS DUE IN PART TO WARMER-
THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK ESE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW`S APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS COVER...AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME COOLING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEARER AND THEN MOVES INLAND. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THERE IS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THUS...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AND SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. BUT WHEN AND WHERE THAT PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP IS THE
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
DEVELOP PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SF PENINSULA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LOW. DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED TO
BLANKET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE AGENCIES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED
TO OVER 2000 FEET WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LATE BURNOFF FROM THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS CLEARING SNS AFTER 18Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING AT MRY AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:12 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 061609
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
909 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
COOLER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT MONDAY...A 2000 FOOT MARINE LAYER
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS
PUSHING WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS
REPORTED ALONG MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH SOME SITES PICKING UP A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
MARINE LAYER...DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WELL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TO 80S INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PLEASE
READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO OUR AREA IS
MAINTAINING A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ALLOWED LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH IS DUE IN PART TO WARMER-
THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK ESE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW`S APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS COVER...AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME COOLING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEARER AND THEN MOVES INLAND. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THERE IS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THUS...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AND SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. BUT WHEN AND WHERE THAT PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP IS THE
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
DEVELOP PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SF PENINSULA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LOW. DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED TO
BLANKET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE AGENCIES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED
TO OVER 2000 FEET WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LATE BURNOFF FROM THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS CLEARING SNS AFTER 18Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING AT MRY AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:12 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 061135
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
435 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO OUR AREA IS MAINTAINING
A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 3 AM TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHICH IS DUE IN PART TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK ESE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW`S APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS COVER...AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME COOLING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEARER AND THEN MOVES INLAND. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THERE IS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THUS...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AND SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. BUT WHEN AND WHERE THAT PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP IS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
DEVELOP PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SF PENINSULA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LOW. DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED
TO BLANKET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE AGENCIES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED
TO OVER 2000 FEET WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LATE BURNOFF FROM THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS CLEARING SNS AFTER 18Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING AT MRY AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:12 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 061135
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
435 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO OUR AREA IS MAINTAINING
A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 3 AM TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHICH IS DUE IN PART TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK ESE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW`S APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS COVER...AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME COOLING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEARER AND THEN MOVES INLAND. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THERE IS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THUS...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AND SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. BUT WHEN AND WHERE THAT PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP IS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
DEVELOP PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SF PENINSULA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LOW. DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED
TO BLANKET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE AGENCIES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED
TO OVER 2000 FEET WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LATE BURNOFF FROM THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS CLEARING SNS AFTER 18Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING AT MRY AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:12 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 061135
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
435 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO OUR AREA IS MAINTAINING
A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 3 AM TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHICH IS DUE IN PART TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK ESE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW`S APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS COVER...AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME COOLING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEARER AND THEN MOVES INLAND. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THERE IS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THUS...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AND SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. BUT WHEN AND WHERE THAT PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP IS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
DEVELOP PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SF PENINSULA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LOW. DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED
TO BLANKET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE AGENCIES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED
TO OVER 2000 FEET WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LATE BURNOFF FROM THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS CLEARING SNS AFTER 18Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING AT MRY AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:12 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 061135
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
435 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO OUR AREA IS MAINTAINING
A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 3 AM TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHICH IS DUE IN PART TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK ESE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW`S APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS COVER...AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME COOLING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEARER AND THEN MOVES INLAND. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THERE IS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THUS...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AND SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. BUT WHEN AND WHERE THAT PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP IS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
DEVELOP PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SF PENINSULA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LOW. DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED
TO BLANKET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE AGENCIES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED
TO OVER 2000 FEET WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LATE BURNOFF FROM THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS CLEARING SNS AFTER 18Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING AT MRY AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:12 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 061021
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
321 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO OUR AREA IS MAINTAINING
A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 3 AM TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHICH IS DUE IN PART TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK ESE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW`S APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS COVER...AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME COOLING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEARER AND THEN MOVES INLAND. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THERE IS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THUS...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AND SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. BUT WHEN AND WHERE THAT PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP IS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
DEVELOP PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SF PENINSULA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LOW. DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED
TO BLANKET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE AGENCIES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE EPAC LOW IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
COOLING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG IS FORECAST UNTIL 17Z. VFR IS LIKELY
TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST
TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:12 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 061021
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
321 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO OUR AREA IS MAINTAINING
A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 3 AM TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHICH IS DUE IN PART TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK ESE TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW`S APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS COVER...AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME COOLING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
DRAWS NEARER AND THEN MOVES INLAND. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THERE IS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THUS...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AND SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. BUT WHEN AND WHERE THAT PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP IS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
DEVELOP PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SF PENINSULA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LOW. DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED
TO BLANKET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORMS AS A HEADS-UP TO FIRE AGENCIES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE EPAC LOW IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
COOLING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG IS FORECAST UNTIL 17Z. VFR IS LIKELY
TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST
TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:12 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 060457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
957 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...IN MOST CASES
TEMPERATURES ENDED UP BEING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY
INLAND SPOTS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS
A DROP OF UP TO 13 DEGREES. COASTAL AREAS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO
WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY -- 60S TO LOWER 70S. WORTH POINTING OUT
THAT THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY HIT 64 DEGREES TODAY FOR WATER TEMP
WHICH IS 7 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA
TEMPS WILL HELP TO KEEP COASTAL SPOTS FAIRLY MILD AT NIGHT.

SATELLITE LOOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWED THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH CLOUDS FIRST ADVANCING TO THE COAST THEN
SLOWLY HEADING INLAND. WITH A MARINE LAYER OVER 2000 FEET PLUS A
MODERATE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WOULD EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO LIKELY AT
THE COAST. ONE MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC PICKING UP 0.06" THIS MORNING
IN SONOMA COUNTY DUE TO DRIZZLE.

FOR THE FORECAST...AN UPDATE FOR HIGHS WERE DONE EARLIER THIS
EVENING WHICH GENERALLY DROPPED EXPECTED NUMBERS FOR INLAND SPOTS
BY A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED OFF OF WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. WORTH NOTING THAT
THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES OVER OUR CWA. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THAT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR
OVERNIGHT PERIODS GOING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES
TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AIDED IN THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER THAT APPEARS
TO BE AROUND 2500 FEET DEEP VIA THE FORT ORD PROFILER. GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PUSH INLAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD
INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY RECEIVE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE EACH MORNING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ALOFT AND
TRANSLATE TO COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ASIDE
FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HIT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE COOLER
AIR MASS ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT INLAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL END ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INLAND WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE EPAC LOW IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
COOLING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG IS FORECAST UNTIL 17Z. VFR IS LIKELY
TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST
TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT SUNDAY...GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY
BRIDGE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 060457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
957 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...IN MOST CASES
TEMPERATURES ENDED UP BEING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY
INLAND SPOTS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS
A DROP OF UP TO 13 DEGREES. COASTAL AREAS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO
WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY -- 60S TO LOWER 70S. WORTH POINTING OUT
THAT THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY HIT 64 DEGREES TODAY FOR WATER TEMP
WHICH IS 7 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA
TEMPS WILL HELP TO KEEP COASTAL SPOTS FAIRLY MILD AT NIGHT.

SATELLITE LOOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWED THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH CLOUDS FIRST ADVANCING TO THE COAST THEN
SLOWLY HEADING INLAND. WITH A MARINE LAYER OVER 2000 FEET PLUS A
MODERATE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WOULD EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO LIKELY AT
THE COAST. ONE MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC PICKING UP 0.06" THIS MORNING
IN SONOMA COUNTY DUE TO DRIZZLE.

FOR THE FORECAST...AN UPDATE FOR HIGHS WERE DONE EARLIER THIS
EVENING WHICH GENERALLY DROPPED EXPECTED NUMBERS FOR INLAND SPOTS
BY A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED OFF OF WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. WORTH NOTING THAT
THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES OVER OUR CWA. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THAT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR
OVERNIGHT PERIODS GOING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES
TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AIDED IN THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER THAT APPEARS
TO BE AROUND 2500 FEET DEEP VIA THE FORT ORD PROFILER. GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PUSH INLAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD
INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY RECEIVE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE EACH MORNING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ALOFT AND
TRANSLATE TO COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ASIDE
FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HIT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE COOLER
AIR MASS ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT INLAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL END ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INLAND WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE EPAC LOW IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
COOLING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG IS FORECAST UNTIL 17Z. VFR IS LIKELY
TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST
TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT SUNDAY...GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY
BRIDGE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 060354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...IN MOST CASES
TEMPERATURES ENDED UP BEING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY
INLAND SPOTS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS
A DROP OF UP TO 13 DEGREES. COASTAL AREAS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO
WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY -- 60S TO LOWER 70S. WORTH POINTING OUT
THAT THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY HIT 64 DEGREES TODAY FOR WATER TEMP
WHICH IS 7 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA
TEMPS WILL HELP TO KEEP COASTAL SPOTS FAIRLY MILD AT NIGHT.

SATELLITE LOOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWED THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH CLOUDS FIRST ADVANCING TO THE COAST THEN
SLOWLY HEADING INLAND. WITH A MARINE LAYER OVER 2000 FEET PLUS A
MODERATE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WOULD EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO LIKELY AT
THE COAST. ONE MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC PICKING UP 0.06" THIS MORNING
IN SONOMA COUNTY DUE TO DRIZZLE.

FOR THE FORECAST...AN UPDATE FOR HIGHS WERE DONE EARLIER THIS
EVENING WHICH GENERALLY DROPPED EXPECTED NUMBERS FOR INLAND SPOTS
BY A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED OFF OF WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. WORTH NOTING THAT
THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES OVER OUR CWA. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THAT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR
OVERNIGHT PERIODS GOING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES
TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AIDED IN THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER THAT APPEARS
TO BE AROUND 2500 FEET DEEP VIA THE FORT ORD PROFILER. GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PUSH INLAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD
INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY RECEIVE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE EACH MORNING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ALOFT AND
TRANSLATE TO COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ASIDE
FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HIT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE COOLER
AIR MASS ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT INLAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL END ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INLAND WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...DESPITE ANTICIPATED MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BY TODAY SUBTLE COOLING OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS NOT ONLY BROUGHT THE MARINE LAYER INLAND
QUICKLY LAST EVENING BUT IT ALSO DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER
OVERNIGHT. PRESENTLY THE INVERSION HAS STEADIED AROUND 2600-3000
FEET WITH SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF MIXING
OUT ENTIRELY. LOW CLOUDS OVER LAND ERODED UNDER DIURNAL WARMING
TODAY BUT REMAIN OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER COASTAL WATERS PER
VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE EPAC LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL VERY LIKELY ROLL BACK INLAND TONIGHT...BUT
WITH THE SURFACE WIND FIELD CHANGED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...THERE`LL
BE A TENDENCY FOR SW WIND DIRECTION...POSSIBLY SE LATE TONIGHT??
THE IMMEDIATE IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
STRATUS AND FOG RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...W-SW WIND DIRECTION INDICATED IN THE OBS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO LESS STRATUS SEEN BY THE SAN BRUNO GAP PER WEB
CAM AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. IF SW WIND HOLDS THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
RETURN SHOULD BE DELAYED TO APPROX SIMILAR STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME
LAST NIGHT...CLOSE TO 09Z. PREVAILING MVFR CIG IS FORECAST 09Z-17Z.
VFR IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE MONTEREY
BAY IS SOMEWHAT BROKEN UP COMPARED TO SAT PM...BUT STILL EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 060354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...IN MOST CASES
TEMPERATURES ENDED UP BEING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY
INLAND SPOTS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS
A DROP OF UP TO 13 DEGREES. COASTAL AREAS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO
WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY -- 60S TO LOWER 70S. WORTH POINTING OUT
THAT THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY HIT 64 DEGREES TODAY FOR WATER TEMP
WHICH IS 7 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA
TEMPS WILL HELP TO KEEP COASTAL SPOTS FAIRLY MILD AT NIGHT.

SATELLITE LOOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWED THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH CLOUDS FIRST ADVANCING TO THE COAST THEN
SLOWLY HEADING INLAND. WITH A MARINE LAYER OVER 2000 FEET PLUS A
MODERATE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WOULD EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO LIKELY AT
THE COAST. ONE MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC PICKING UP 0.06" THIS MORNING
IN SONOMA COUNTY DUE TO DRIZZLE.

FOR THE FORECAST...AN UPDATE FOR HIGHS WERE DONE EARLIER THIS
EVENING WHICH GENERALLY DROPPED EXPECTED NUMBERS FOR INLAND SPOTS
BY A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED OFF OF WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. WORTH NOTING THAT
THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES OVER OUR CWA. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THAT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR
OVERNIGHT PERIODS GOING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES
TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AIDED IN THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER THAT APPEARS
TO BE AROUND 2500 FEET DEEP VIA THE FORT ORD PROFILER. GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PUSH INLAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD
INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY RECEIVE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE EACH MORNING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ALOFT AND
TRANSLATE TO COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ASIDE
FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HIT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE COOLER
AIR MASS ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT INLAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL END ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INLAND WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...DESPITE ANTICIPATED MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BY TODAY SUBTLE COOLING OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS NOT ONLY BROUGHT THE MARINE LAYER INLAND
QUICKLY LAST EVENING BUT IT ALSO DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER
OVERNIGHT. PRESENTLY THE INVERSION HAS STEADIED AROUND 2600-3000
FEET WITH SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF MIXING
OUT ENTIRELY. LOW CLOUDS OVER LAND ERODED UNDER DIURNAL WARMING
TODAY BUT REMAIN OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER COASTAL WATERS PER
VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE EPAC LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL VERY LIKELY ROLL BACK INLAND TONIGHT...BUT
WITH THE SURFACE WIND FIELD CHANGED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...THERE`LL
BE A TENDENCY FOR SW WIND DIRECTION...POSSIBLY SE LATE TONIGHT??
THE IMMEDIATE IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
STRATUS AND FOG RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...W-SW WIND DIRECTION INDICATED IN THE OBS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO LESS STRATUS SEEN BY THE SAN BRUNO GAP PER WEB
CAM AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. IF SW WIND HOLDS THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
RETURN SHOULD BE DELAYED TO APPROX SIMILAR STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME
LAST NIGHT...CLOSE TO 09Z. PREVAILING MVFR CIG IS FORECAST 09Z-17Z.
VFR IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE MONTEREY
BAY IS SOMEWHAT BROKEN UP COMPARED TO SAT PM...BUT STILL EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 060043
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
543 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:51 PM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS AIDED IN THE DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER THAT APPEARS TO BE AROUND 2500 FEET DEEP VIA THE FORT
ORD PROFILER. GIVEN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INLAND DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY
RECEIVE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPOTS PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE EACH MORNING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ALOFT AND
TRANSLATE TO COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ASIDE
FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HIT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE COOLER
AIR MASS ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT INLAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL END ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INLAND WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...DESPITE ANTICIPATED MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BY TODAY SUBTLE COOLING OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS NOT ONLY BROUGHT THE MARINE LAYER INLAND
QUICKLY LAST EVENING BUT IT ALSO DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER
OVERNIGHT. PRESENTLY THE INVERSION HAS STEADIED AROUND 2600-3000
FEET WITH SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF MIXING
OUT ENTIRELY. LOW CLOUDS OVER LAND ERODED UNDER DIURNAL WARMING
TODAY BUT REMAIN OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER COASTAL WATERS PER
VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE EPAC LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL VERY LIKELY ROLL BACK INLAND TONIGHT...BUT
WITH THE SURFACE WIND FIELD CHANGED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...THERE`LL
BE A TENDENCY FOR SW WIND DIRECTION...POSSIBLY SE LATE TONIGHT??
THE IMMEDIATE IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
STRATUS AND FOG RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...W-SW WIND DIRECTION INDICATED IN THE OBS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO LESS STRATUS SEEN BY THE SAN BRUNO GAP PER WEB
CAM AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. IF SW WIND HOLDS THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
RETURN SHOULD BE DELAYED TO APPROX SIMILAR STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME
LAST NIGHT...CLOSE TO 09Z. PREVAILING MVFR CIG IS FORECAST 09Z-17Z.
VFR IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE MONTEREY
BAY IS SOMEWHAT BROKEN UP COMPARED TO SAT PM...BUT STILL EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:51 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 060043
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
543 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:51 PM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS AIDED IN THE DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER THAT APPEARS TO BE AROUND 2500 FEET DEEP VIA THE FORT
ORD PROFILER. GIVEN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INLAND DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY
RECEIVE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPOTS PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE EACH MORNING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ALOFT AND
TRANSLATE TO COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ASIDE
FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HIT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE COOLER
AIR MASS ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT INLAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL END ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INLAND WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...DESPITE ANTICIPATED MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BY TODAY SUBTLE COOLING OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS NOT ONLY BROUGHT THE MARINE LAYER INLAND
QUICKLY LAST EVENING BUT IT ALSO DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER
OVERNIGHT. PRESENTLY THE INVERSION HAS STEADIED AROUND 2600-3000
FEET WITH SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF MIXING
OUT ENTIRELY. LOW CLOUDS OVER LAND ERODED UNDER DIURNAL WARMING
TODAY BUT REMAIN OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER COASTAL WATERS PER
VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE EPAC LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL VERY LIKELY ROLL BACK INLAND TONIGHT...BUT
WITH THE SURFACE WIND FIELD CHANGED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...THERE`LL
BE A TENDENCY FOR SW WIND DIRECTION...POSSIBLY SE LATE TONIGHT??
THE IMMEDIATE IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
STRATUS AND FOG RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...W-SW WIND DIRECTION INDICATED IN THE OBS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO LESS STRATUS SEEN BY THE SAN BRUNO GAP PER WEB
CAM AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. IF SW WIND HOLDS THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
RETURN SHOULD BE DELAYED TO APPROX SIMILAR STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME
LAST NIGHT...CLOSE TO 09Z. PREVAILING MVFR CIG IS FORECAST 09Z-17Z.
VFR IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE MONTEREY
BAY IS SOMEWHAT BROKEN UP COMPARED TO SAT PM...BUT STILL EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:51 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 052153
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:51 PM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS AIDED IN THE DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER THAT APPEARS TO BE AROUND 2500 FEET DEEP VIA THE FORT
ORD PROFILER. GIVEN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INLAND DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY
RECEIVE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPOTS PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE EACH MORNING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ALOFT AND
TRANSLATE TO COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ASIDE
FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HIT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE COOLER
AIR MASS ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT INLAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL END ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INLAND WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. EARLY RETURN OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY LATER TODAY. CLOUD DECK 20K TO
25K FT AGL APPROACHING FROM SW AS DISTURBANCE LINGERS OFFSHORE.
DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH EXTENDED DURATION
OF LOW CIGS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. MVFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 5Z
MON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID CLEARING
OF MARINE LAYER OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF MONTEREY BAY TAF SITES INC
KMRY AND KSNS. VFR CONDS AT OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 18Z... 19Z FOR
KWVI. EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS LATER TODAY... AOA 01-02Z MON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:51 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 052153
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
COASTAL DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:51 PM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS AIDED IN THE DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER THAT APPEARS TO BE AROUND 2500 FEET DEEP VIA THE FORT
ORD PROFILER. GIVEN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INLAND DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY
RECEIVE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPOTS PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE EACH MORNING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ALOFT AND
TRANSLATE TO COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ASIDE
FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HIT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME
UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE COOLER
AIR MASS ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT INLAND AND LIFT NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL END ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INLAND WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. EARLY RETURN OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY LATER TODAY. CLOUD DECK 20K TO
25K FT AGL APPROACHING FROM SW AS DISTURBANCE LINGERS OFFSHORE.
DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH EXTENDED DURATION
OF LOW CIGS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. MVFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 5Z
MON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID CLEARING
OF MARINE LAYER OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF MONTEREY BAY TAF SITES INC
KMRY AND KSNS. VFR CONDS AT OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 18Z... 19Z FOR
KWVI. EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS LATER TODAY... AOA 01-02Z MON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:51 PM PDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY DRIZZLE BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 2200 FEET. IN FACT...A FEW SITES INCLUDING
SANTA CRUZ AND DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO REPORTED ONE-HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE LESS COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...CLOUD COVER IS
MIXING OUT IN SPOTS ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS ARE SEEING
A SLOW BURN-OFF. OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AT THE COAST AND INTO THE 80S INLAND (FEW LOW 90S IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS). WITH THAT SAID...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DAY AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN
FRANCISCO...AND IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. EARLY RETURN OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY LATER TODAY. CLOUD DECK 20K TO
25K FT AGL APPROACHING FROM SW AS DISTURBANCE LINGERS OFFSHORE.
DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH EXTENDED DURATION
OF LOW CIGS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. MVFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 5Z
MON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID CLEARING
OF MARINE LAYER OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF MONTEREY BAY TAF SITES INC
KMRY AND KSNS. VFR CONDS AT OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 18Z... 19Z FOR
KWVI. EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS LATER TODAY... AOA 01-02Z MON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:44 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY DRIZZLE BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 2200 FEET. IN FACT...A FEW SITES INCLUDING
SANTA CRUZ AND DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO REPORTED ONE-HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE LESS COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...CLOUD COVER IS
MIXING OUT IN SPOTS ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS ARE SEEING
A SLOW BURN-OFF. OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AT THE COAST AND INTO THE 80S INLAND (FEW LOW 90S IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS). WITH THAT SAID...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DAY AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN
FRANCISCO...AND IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. EARLY RETURN OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY LATER TODAY. CLOUD DECK 20K TO
25K FT AGL APPROACHING FROM SW AS DISTURBANCE LINGERS OFFSHORE.
DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH EXTENDED DURATION
OF LOW CIGS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. MVFR CIGS RETURN AFTER 5Z
MON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID CLEARING
OF MARINE LAYER OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF MONTEREY BAY TAF SITES INC
KMRY AND KSNS. VFR CONDS AT OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 18Z... 19Z FOR
KWVI. EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS LATER TODAY... AOA 01-02Z MON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:44 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY DRIZZLE BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 2200 FEET. IN FACT...A FEW SITES INCLUDING
SANTA CRUZ AND DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO REPORTED ONE-HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE LESS COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...CLOUD COVER IS
MIXING OUT IN SPOTS ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS ARE SEEING
A SLOW BURN-OFF. OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AT THE COAST AND INTO THE 80S INLAND (FEW LOW 90S IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS). WITH THAT SAID...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DAY AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN
FRANCISCO...AND IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE SOME HOLES AROUND THE SFO BAY
AREA. MARINE LAYER HAS REMAINED STEADY AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SIMILAR
GRADIENTS AS YESTERDAY. CIG HEIGHTS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 1000 FEET
IN THE SFO BAY AREA. STRATUS CLEARED RATHER EARLY YESTERDAY AND
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY CLEARING FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
AGAIN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME BREAKS OVER MRY BAY SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER
17-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY DRIZZLE BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 2200 FEET. IN FACT...A FEW SITES INCLUDING
SANTA CRUZ AND DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO REPORTED ONE-HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE LESS COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...CLOUD COVER IS
MIXING OUT IN SPOTS ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS ARE SEEING
A SLOW BURN-OFF. OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AT THE COAST AND INTO THE 80S INLAND (FEW LOW 90S IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS). WITH THAT SAID...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DAY AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN
FRANCISCO...AND IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE SOME HOLES AROUND THE SFO BAY
AREA. MARINE LAYER HAS REMAINED STEADY AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SIMILAR
GRADIENTS AS YESTERDAY. CIG HEIGHTS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 1000 FEET
IN THE SFO BAY AREA. STRATUS CLEARED RATHER EARLY YESTERDAY AND
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY CLEARING FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
AGAIN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME BREAKS OVER MRY BAY SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER
17-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY DRIZZLE BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 2200 FEET. IN FACT...A FEW SITES INCLUDING
SANTA CRUZ AND DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO REPORTED ONE-HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE LESS COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...CLOUD COVER IS
MIXING OUT IN SPOTS ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS ARE SEEING
A SLOW BURN-OFF. OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AT THE COAST AND INTO THE 80S INLAND (FEW LOW 90S IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS). WITH THAT SAID...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DAY AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN
FRANCISCO...AND IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE SOME HOLES AROUND THE SFO BAY
AREA. MARINE LAYER HAS REMAINED STEADY AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SIMILAR
GRADIENTS AS YESTERDAY. CIG HEIGHTS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 1000 FEET
IN THE SFO BAY AREA. STRATUS CLEARED RATHER EARLY YESTERDAY AND
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY CLEARING FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
AGAIN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME BREAKS OVER MRY BAY SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER
17-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY DRIZZLE BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 2200 FEET. IN FACT...A FEW SITES INCLUDING
SANTA CRUZ AND DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO REPORTED ONE-HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE LESS COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...CLOUD COVER IS
MIXING OUT IN SPOTS ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS ARE SEEING
A SLOW BURN-OFF. OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AT THE COAST AND INTO THE 80S INLAND (FEW LOW 90S IN THE
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS). WITH THAT SAID...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DAY AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN
FRANCISCO...AND IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE SOME HOLES AROUND THE SFO BAY
AREA. MARINE LAYER HAS REMAINED STEADY AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SIMILAR
GRADIENTS AS YESTERDAY. CIG HEIGHTS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 1000 FEET
IN THE SFO BAY AREA. STRATUS CLEARED RATHER EARLY YESTERDAY AND
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY CLEARING FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
AGAIN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME BREAKS OVER MRY BAY SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER
17-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT SUNDAY...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051217
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
517 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO...AND IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF
THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE SOME HOLES AROUND THE SFO BAY
AREA. MARINE LAYER HAS REMAINED STEADY AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SIMILAR
GRADIENTS AS YESTERDAY. CIG HEIGHTS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 1000 FEET
IN THE SFO BAY AREA. STRATUS CLEARED RATHER EARLY YESTERDAY AND
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY CLEARING FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
AGAIN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME BREAKS OVER MRY BAY SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER
17-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
900 NM NORTHWEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051217
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
517 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO...AND IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF
THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE SOME HOLES AROUND THE SFO BAY
AREA. MARINE LAYER HAS REMAINED STEADY AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SIMILAR
GRADIENTS AS YESTERDAY. CIG HEIGHTS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 1000 FEET
IN THE SFO BAY AREA. STRATUS CLEARED RATHER EARLY YESTERDAY AND
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY CLEARING FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
AGAIN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME BREAKS OVER MRY BAY SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER
17-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
900 NM NORTHWEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051217
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
517 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO...AND IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF
THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE SOME HOLES AROUND THE SFO BAY
AREA. MARINE LAYER HAS REMAINED STEADY AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SIMILAR
GRADIENTS AS YESTERDAY. CIG HEIGHTS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 1000 FEET
IN THE SFO BAY AREA. STRATUS CLEARED RATHER EARLY YESTERDAY AND
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY CLEARING FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
AGAIN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME BREAKS OVER MRY BAY SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER
17-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
900 NM NORTHWEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051032
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
332 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO...AND IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF
THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:07 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG
SUR COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER INCREASED IN DEPTH THIS EVENING AT THE FORT ORD
PROFILER...JUMPED UP TO ABOUT 2500 FEET...BUT HAS REMAINED STEADY
AT ABOUT 1500 FEET DEEP AT THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER. A VERY GRADUAL
COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB LEVEL FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. LEFT IN MVFR TO
IFR CIGS TRANSITION LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
CEILING ARRIVAL. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. STILL
THINKING THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS BUT NOT UNTIL MUCH LATER
TONIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SUR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN
TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 051032
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
332 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO...AND IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF
THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:07 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG
SUR COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER INCREASED IN DEPTH THIS EVENING AT THE FORT ORD
PROFILER...JUMPED UP TO ABOUT 2500 FEET...BUT HAS REMAINED STEADY
AT ABOUT 1500 FEET DEEP AT THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER. A VERY GRADUAL
COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB LEVEL FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. LEFT IN MVFR TO
IFR CIGS TRANSITION LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
CEILING ARRIVAL. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. STILL
THINKING THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS BUT NOT UNTIL MUCH LATER
TONIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SUR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN
TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 051032
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
332 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO...AND IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF
THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:07 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG
SUR COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER INCREASED IN DEPTH THIS EVENING AT THE FORT ORD
PROFILER...JUMPED UP TO ABOUT 2500 FEET...BUT HAS REMAINED STEADY
AT ABOUT 1500 FEET DEEP AT THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER. A VERY GRADUAL
COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB LEVEL FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. LEFT IN MVFR TO
IFR CIGS TRANSITION LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
CEILING ARRIVAL. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. STILL
THINKING THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS BUT NOT UNTIL MUCH LATER
TONIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SUR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN
TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 051032
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
332 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO...AND IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE ENE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF
THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD). THIS WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE INLAND VALLEYS MOST ISOLATED FROM MARINE
INFLUENCE. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. BY MIDWEEK INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO A WEEK
EARLIER.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. AND...THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK...IT MAY
TAP INTO SOME OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THUS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN
OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SF BAY AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO EXPLICITLY ADD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERING TRAJECTORIES FOR
THE LOW AS IT COMES ASHORE. WILL NOT YET ADD PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK...AND RATHER WAIT UNTIL THERE IS
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING ALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BY SATURDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:07 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG
SUR COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER INCREASED IN DEPTH THIS EVENING AT THE FORT ORD
PROFILER...JUMPED UP TO ABOUT 2500 FEET...BUT HAS REMAINED STEADY
AT ABOUT 1500 FEET DEEP AT THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER. A VERY GRADUAL
COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB LEVEL FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. LEFT IN MVFR TO
IFR CIGS TRANSITION LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
CEILING ARRIVAL. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. STILL
THINKING THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS BUT NOT UNTIL MUCH LATER
TONIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SUR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN
TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 050523
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1023 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OFFSHORE NEAR 33N/133W IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
ENE. TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS RECENTLY DEEPENED PAST
2000 FEET AND WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND MOUNTAINS OF FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT MOISTURE/CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE DRAWS
CLOSER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS NOT YET
ENOUGH FROM THE MODELS TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:07 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG
SUR COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER INCREASED IN DEPTH THIS EVENING AT THE FORT ORD
PROFILER...JUMPED UP TO ABOUT 2500 FEET...BUT HAS REMAINED STEADY
AT ABOUT 1500 FEET DEEP AT THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER. A VERY GRADUAL
COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB LEVEL FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. LEFT IN MVFR TO
IFR CIGS TRANSITION LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
CEILING ARRIVAL. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. STILL
THINKING THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS BUT NOT UNTIL MUCH LATER
TONIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SUR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN
TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 050358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OFFSHORE NEAR 33N/133W IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
ENE. TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS RECENTLY DEEPENED PAST
2000 FEET AND WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND MOUNTAINS OF FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT MOISTURE/CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE DRAWS
CLOSER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS NOT YET
ENOUGH FROM THE MODELS TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:47 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG SUR
COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY. A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS PRESENTLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP AND MAY TEND TO
COMPRESS BY A FEW HUNDRED FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING RETURNS PER SLIGHTLY RISING /WARMING/ 500
MB HEIGHTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS NOT
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST TIL 04Z. IT`S LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE RETURN OF CLOUD CEILINGS TONIGHT. DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR THE
RETURN TIMING AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED FORECAST AS IS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE STRATUS LAYER IS MOVING IN A BIT
QUICKER THAN USUAL DESPITE THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY WINDS 250 DEGREES
AT ONLY 7 KNOTS AND KMRY WINDS AVERAGING FROM A 220-240 DEGREES
/DOWNSLOPING & DRYING DIRECTION/. BANKED ON SW WIND DIRECTION TO
PULL KMRY BACK TO SCT010 01Z-04Z BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`LL
BE THE CASE. WILL MONITOR A BIT MORE BEFORE AMENDING. OTHERWISE
IFR CIGS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
COMPRESS GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VFR IS
FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SUR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN
TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 050358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OFFSHORE NEAR 33N/133W IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
ENE. TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS RECENTLY DEEPENED PAST
2000 FEET AND WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND MOUNTAINS OF FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT MOISTURE/CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE DRAWS
CLOSER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS NOT YET
ENOUGH FROM THE MODELS TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:47 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG SUR
COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY. A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS PRESENTLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP AND MAY TEND TO
COMPRESS BY A FEW HUNDRED FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING RETURNS PER SLIGHTLY RISING /WARMING/ 500
MB HEIGHTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS NOT
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST TIL 04Z. IT`S LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE RETURN OF CLOUD CEILINGS TONIGHT. DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR THE
RETURN TIMING AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED FORECAST AS IS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE STRATUS LAYER IS MOVING IN A BIT
QUICKER THAN USUAL DESPITE THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY WINDS 250 DEGREES
AT ONLY 7 KNOTS AND KMRY WINDS AVERAGING FROM A 220-240 DEGREES
/DOWNSLOPING & DRYING DIRECTION/. BANKED ON SW WIND DIRECTION TO
PULL KMRY BACK TO SCT010 01Z-04Z BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`LL
BE THE CASE. WILL MONITOR A BIT MORE BEFORE AMENDING. OTHERWISE
IFR CIGS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
COMPRESS GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VFR IS
FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SUR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN
TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 050358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OFFSHORE NEAR 33N/133W IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
ENE. TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS RECENTLY DEEPENED PAST
2000 FEET AND WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND MOUNTAINS OF FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT MOISTURE/CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE DRAWS
CLOSER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS NOT YET
ENOUGH FROM THE MODELS TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:47 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG SUR
COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY. A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS PRESENTLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP AND MAY TEND TO
COMPRESS BY A FEW HUNDRED FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING RETURNS PER SLIGHTLY RISING /WARMING/ 500
MB HEIGHTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS NOT
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST TIL 04Z. IT`S LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE RETURN OF CLOUD CEILINGS TONIGHT. DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR THE
RETURN TIMING AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED FORECAST AS IS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE STRATUS LAYER IS MOVING IN A BIT
QUICKER THAN USUAL DESPITE THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY WINDS 250 DEGREES
AT ONLY 7 KNOTS AND KMRY WINDS AVERAGING FROM A 220-240 DEGREES
/DOWNSLOPING & DRYING DIRECTION/. BANKED ON SW WIND DIRECTION TO
PULL KMRY BACK TO SCT010 01Z-04Z BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`LL
BE THE CASE. WILL MONITOR A BIT MORE BEFORE AMENDING. OTHERWISE
IFR CIGS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
COMPRESS GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VFR IS
FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SUR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN
TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 050358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OFFSHORE NEAR 33N/133W IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
ENE. TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE MARINE LAYER HAS RECENTLY DEEPENED PAST
2000 FEET AND WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...ALONG WITH LOCAL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND MOUNTAINS OF FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT MOISTURE/CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE DRAWS
CLOSER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS NOT YET
ENOUGH FROM THE MODELS TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:47 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG SUR
COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY. A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS PRESENTLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP AND MAY TEND TO
COMPRESS BY A FEW HUNDRED FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING RETURNS PER SLIGHTLY RISING /WARMING/ 500
MB HEIGHTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS NOT
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST TIL 04Z. IT`S LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE RETURN OF CLOUD CEILINGS TONIGHT. DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR THE
RETURN TIMING AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED FORECAST AS IS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE STRATUS LAYER IS MOVING IN A BIT
QUICKER THAN USUAL DESPITE THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY WINDS 250 DEGREES
AT ONLY 7 KNOTS AND KMRY WINDS AVERAGING FROM A 220-240 DEGREES
/DOWNSLOPING & DRYING DIRECTION/. BANKED ON SW WIND DIRECTION TO
PULL KMRY BACK TO SCT010 01Z-04Z BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`LL
BE THE CASE. WILL MONITOR A BIT MORE BEFORE AMENDING. OTHERWISE
IFR CIGS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
COMPRESS GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VFR IS
FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 650
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SUR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN
TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 050056
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
556 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PREDOMINATE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:42 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS WEST OF CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN OCCURRING
OVER THE SIERRA AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THAT REGION.
BACK NEAR THE COAST...A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET REMAINS IN
PLACE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAKING A PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE COASTLINE. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND INTO MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS INTO SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF OF THE WEST COAST. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE COAST.
OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ANY CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRONG
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND SUPPORT OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE REGION UNDER A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:47 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG SUR
COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY. A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS PRESENTLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP AND MAY TEND TO
COMPRESS BY A FEW HUNDRED FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING RETURNS PER SLIGHTLY RISING /WARMING/ 500
MB HEIGHTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS NOT
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST TIL 04Z. IT`S LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE RETURN OF CLOUD CEILINGS TONIGHT. DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR THE
RETURN TIMING AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED FORECAST AS IS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE STRATUS LAYER IS MOVING IN A BIT
QUICKER THAN USUAL DESPITE THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY WINDS 250 DEGREES
AT ONLY 7 KNOTS AND KMRY WINDS AVERAGING FROM A 220-240 DEGREES
/DOWNSLOPING & DRYING DIRECTION/. BANKED ON SW WIND DIRECTION TO
PULL KMRY BACK TO SCT010 01Z-04Z BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`LL
BE THE CASE. WILL MONITOR A BIT MORE BEFORE AMENDING. OTHERWISE
IFR CIGS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
COMPRESS GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VFR IS
FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 050056
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
556 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PREDOMINATE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:42 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS WEST OF CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN OCCURRING
OVER THE SIERRA AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THAT REGION.
BACK NEAR THE COAST...A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET REMAINS IN
PLACE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAKING A PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE COASTLINE. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND INTO MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS INTO SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF OF THE WEST COAST. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE COAST.
OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ANY CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRONG
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND SUPPORT OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE REGION UNDER A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:47 PM PDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED 650 MILES SW OF THE BIG SUR
COAST. A SUBTLE LOWERING /COOLING/ OF THE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS...LOWER BY LESS THAN 1 DECAMETER...IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS /WARMING/ SUNDAY. A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING BY APPROX 1-2 CELSIUS IS FORECAST AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS PRESENTLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP AND MAY TEND TO
COMPRESS BY A FEW HUNDRED FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING RETURNS PER SLIGHTLY RISING /WARMING/ 500
MB HEIGHTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER TO MID LEVEL COOLING IS NOT
ENOUGH TO GREATLY DISRUPT OR WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER TO THE POINT
OF MIXING OUT.

BRIEF RIDGING OVER CA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED
MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF A ROBUST SFO-SAC ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR 4 MB WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST TIL 04Z. IT`S LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE RETURN OF CLOUD CEILINGS TONIGHT. DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR THE
RETURN TIMING AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE INHERITED FORECAST AS IS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...THE STRATUS LAYER IS MOVING IN A BIT
QUICKER THAN USUAL DESPITE THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY WINDS 250 DEGREES
AT ONLY 7 KNOTS AND KMRY WINDS AVERAGING FROM A 220-240 DEGREES
/DOWNSLOPING & DRYING DIRECTION/. BANKED ON SW WIND DIRECTION TO
PULL KMRY BACK TO SCT010 01Z-04Z BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`LL
BE THE CASE. WILL MONITOR A BIT MORE BEFORE AMENDING. OTHERWISE
IFR CIGS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
COMPRESS GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VFR IS
FORECAST TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 042044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
144 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PREDOMINATE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:42 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS WEST OF CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN OCCURRING
OVER THE SIERRA AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THAT REGION.
BACK NEAR THE COAST...A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET REMAINS IN
PLACE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAKING A PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE COASTLINE. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND INTO MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS INTO SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF OF THE WEST COAST. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE COAST.
OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ANY CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRONG
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND SUPPORT OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE REGION UNDER A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST THE DAY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 KT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND DEPTH
TO THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE 10 TO 20 KT TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT POSBL.  LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 09Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 02-03Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 042044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
144 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PREDOMINATE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:42 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS WEST OF CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN OCCURRING
OVER THE SIERRA AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THAT REGION.
BACK NEAR THE COAST...A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET REMAINS IN
PLACE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAKING A PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE COASTLINE. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND INTO MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS INTO SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF OF THE WEST COAST. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE COAST.
OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ANY CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRONG
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND SUPPORT OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE REGION UNDER A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST THE DAY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 KT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND DEPTH
TO THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE 10 TO 20 KT TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT POSBL.  LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 09Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 02-03Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041736
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS THAT
SPREAD WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER
INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S REGION-WIDE AND WILL BEGIN
TO RAPIDLY WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE. COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WARM INTO THE 80S
AND 90S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RETURN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND
1500 FEET AND DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE
WEST SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE.
IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST THE DAY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 KT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND DEPTH
TO THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE 10 TO 20 KT TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT POSBL.  LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 09Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 02-03Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041736
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS THAT
SPREAD WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER
INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S REGION-WIDE AND WILL BEGIN
TO RAPIDLY WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE. COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WARM INTO THE 80S
AND 90S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RETURN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND
1500 FEET AND DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE
WEST SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE.
IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST THE DAY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 KT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND DEPTH
TO THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE 10 TO 20 KT TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT POSBL.  LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 09Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 02-03Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041736
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS THAT
SPREAD WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER
INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S REGION-WIDE AND WILL BEGIN
TO RAPIDLY WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE. COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WARM INTO THE 80S
AND 90S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RETURN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND
1500 FEET AND DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE
WEST SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE.
IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST THE DAY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 KT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND DEPTH
TO THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE 10 TO 20 KT TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT POSBL.  LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 09Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 02-03Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041736
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS THAT
SPREAD WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER
INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S REGION-WIDE AND WILL BEGIN
TO RAPIDLY WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE. COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WARM INTO THE 80S
AND 90S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RETURN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND
1500 FEET AND DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE
WEST SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE.
IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST THE DAY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 KT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND DEPTH
TO THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE 10 TO 20 KT TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT POSBL.  LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 09Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. LOW CIGS RETURN AOA 02-03Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:32 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041608
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS THAT
SPREAD WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER
INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S REGION-WIDE AND WILL BEGIN
TO RAPIDLY WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE. COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WARM INTO THE 80S
AND 90S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RETURN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND
1500 FEET AND DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE
WEST SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE.
IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN
DEEPENING SINCE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY 2000 FEET
DEEP AT FORT ORD. STRATUS HAS FILLED ON OVER THE SFO BAY AREA.
THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH A EAST-WEST
ONSHORE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY LATER CLEARING TODAY.
SFO MAY CLEAR FIRST AT 1730-1800Z WITH THE APPROACH CLEARING BY
1830.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 1730-1800Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 18 KNOTS BY 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER 18Z BECOMING VFR
BY 1830Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041608
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS THAT
SPREAD WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER
INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S REGION-WIDE AND WILL BEGIN
TO RAPIDLY WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE. COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WARM INTO THE 80S
AND 90S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RETURN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND
1500 FEET AND DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE
WEST SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE.
IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN
DEEPENING SINCE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY 2000 FEET
DEEP AT FORT ORD. STRATUS HAS FILLED ON OVER THE SFO BAY AREA.
THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH A EAST-WEST
ONSHORE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY LATER CLEARING TODAY.
SFO MAY CLEAR FIRST AT 1730-1800Z WITH THE APPROACH CLEARING BY
1830.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 1730-1800Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 18 KNOTS BY 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER 18Z BECOMING VFR
BY 1830Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041126
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND
COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET AND
DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN
DEEPENING SINCE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY 2000 FEET
DEEP AT FORT ORD. STRATUS HAS FILLED ON OVER THE SFO BAY AREA.
THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH A EAST-WEST
ONSHORE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY LATER CLEARING TODAY.
SFO MAY CLEAR FIRST AT 1730-1800Z WITH THE APPROACH CLEARING BY
1830.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 1730-1800Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 18 KNOTS BY 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER 18Z BECOMING VFR BY
1830Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041126
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND
COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET AND
DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN
DEEPENING SINCE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY 2000 FEET
DEEP AT FORT ORD. STRATUS HAS FILLED ON OVER THE SFO BAY AREA.
THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH A EAST-WEST
ONSHORE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY LATER CLEARING TODAY.
SFO MAY CLEAR FIRST AT 1730-1800Z WITH THE APPROACH CLEARING BY
1830.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 1730-1800Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 18 KNOTS BY 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER 18Z BECOMING VFR BY
1830Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041126
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND
COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET AND
DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN
DEEPENING SINCE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY 2000 FEET
DEEP AT FORT ORD. STRATUS HAS FILLED ON OVER THE SFO BAY AREA.
THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH A EAST-WEST
ONSHORE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY LATER CLEARING TODAY.
SFO MAY CLEAR FIRST AT 1730-1800Z WITH THE APPROACH CLEARING BY
1830.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 1730-1800Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 18 KNOTS BY 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER 18Z BECOMING VFR BY
1830Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 041126
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND
COME ADJACENT VALLEYS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET AND
DEEPENING PLUS THE SURFACE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND UNTIL SUNRISE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOW POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ON AVERAGE BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEY SPOTS OVER THE
EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME FIREWORKS VIEWING LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WITH THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO FAVOR ONSHORE/WESTERLY WE SHOULD SEE ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AT THE COAST PLUS ADJACENT VALLEY
SPOTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH KEEPS SHOWERS AND ANY HEAT WAVES WELL OUT
OF OUR AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN
DEEPENING SINCE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY 2000 FEET
DEEP AT FORT ORD. STRATUS HAS FILLED ON OVER THE SFO BAY AREA.
THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH A EAST-WEST
ONSHORE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY LATER CLEARING TODAY.
SFO MAY CLEAR FIRST AT 1730-1800Z WITH THE APPROACH CLEARING BY
1830.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 1730-1800Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 18 KNOTS BY 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS CLEARING AFTER 18Z BECOMING VFR BY
1830Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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