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000
FXUS66 KMTR 190612
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1012 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER
SATURDAY BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF
NEXT WEEK INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:07 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR DECEMBER 18TH IT
WAS A MILD DAY OVER THE AREA...NORMAL LOWS FOR DEC 18TH RUN IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S MILDEST CLOSEST TO THE OCEAN AND BAY
WATERS...BUT THE CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED OVER THE AREA SINCE
LATE LAST NIGHT HELPED SUSTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS. METAR OBS...MESOWEST OBS AND KMUX RADAR SHOWED
A FEW AREAS OF PERIODICALLY VERY LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES. VENADO IN NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY MEASURED 0.04" THIS EVE. KSTS AIRPORT HAD A TRACE
LIGHT RAIN.

A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL
COAST TO THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL GENERATE A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH
THE RAIN TRENDING TO MODERATE AT TIMES BY EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAY AREA. THE 00Z NAM MODEL FORECASTS BRIEFLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVING IN THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
BUT CHILLY AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW PATTERNS LIKE THIS OFTEN PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT POCKETS RAIN OR BRIEF SHOWERS A BIT LONGER AND ONCE
IN A GREAT WHILE DURING PERIODS WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER/NO
QPF. 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS FROM THE 00Z NAM MODEL ENDING 10 PM FRIDAY
EVENING ARE RUNNING UPWARDS OF 8/10" RAIN NORTH BAY...1/3" SF
PENINSULA...EAST AND SOUTH BAYS...AND ABOUT 2/10" N CENTRAL COAST.
THIS IS A LITTLE WETTER NORTH AND A LITTLE DRIER SOUTH COMPARED TO
THE 18Z NAM RUN. ISOLATED 1" RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS DUE TO WEAK OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS ON SW
WINDS. THE RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS AREA-WIDE STILL
PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
FRIDAY. RAINFALL RATES PER THE 00Z NAM MODEL APPEAR TO REACH A
MAXIMUM BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
OVER THE NORTH BAY AS A PERSISTENTLY MOIST EPAC FLOW BRINGS YET
ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO NORTHERN CA. MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO REACH
MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE COASTAL RANGES NORTHWARD TO THE PAC NW.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE BAY AREA.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1/4"-1/2" RAIN HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND QUICKLY LOWERING TO TRACE AMOUNTS
SOUTHERN NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES. BY ABOUT THIS TIME IN THE
WEEKEND THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES SOME AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVERLAPPING NORTHERN CA BRINGING A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER TO ALL AREAS.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE PACIFIC NW NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED AND JUST BEYOND A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EPAC/GULF OF ALASKA PER RECENT NWS CPC`S OUTLOOKS AND
DISCUSSIONS FOR THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS SUGGESTING
HIGHER PROB OF A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR CA. COMPARING EARLIER
TODAY`S 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODELS TO THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS THEY ARE INDICATING APPROX 50% REDUCTION IN 10 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...RADAR HAS
CONTINUED TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
HANDFUL OF GAUGES PICKING UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS OUR FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK TAKES
AIM ON OUR CWA.

RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND START AS WARM FRONTAL RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS DOWN THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MORNING
COMMUTE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WET FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL HITTING THE NORTH BAY CLOSE TO SUNRISE...DOWN
TO SF BAY LATE IN THE MORNING...AND TO MONTEREY BAY AND SOUTH BY
NOON TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HILLS. SPOTS ABOVE 1000 FEET CLOUD SEE LOCAL GUSTS OVER
30 MPH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THAT POINT WILL BE
MOSTLY A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS FOR URBAN SPOTS WILL LOCALLY MORE
THAN 1 INCH FOR THE NORTH BAY. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES AND MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
HITS ANY OF OUR RECENT PROBLEM AREAS. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WEATHER
TO RETURN. THE STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AT LEAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. DOPPLER
RADAR IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY.
CIGS ARE GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH MAINLY CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN
EXPECTED BY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 2000-2500 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 3000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS WITH WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT LARGE NW SWELLS WILL BUILD INTO
THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SEAS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OCEAN AND NEAR THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 190612
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1012 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER
SATURDAY BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF
NEXT WEEK INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:07 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR DECEMBER 18TH IT
WAS A MILD DAY OVER THE AREA...NORMAL LOWS FOR DEC 18TH RUN IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S MILDEST CLOSEST TO THE OCEAN AND BAY
WATERS...BUT THE CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED OVER THE AREA SINCE
LATE LAST NIGHT HELPED SUSTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS. METAR OBS...MESOWEST OBS AND KMUX RADAR SHOWED
A FEW AREAS OF PERIODICALLY VERY LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES. VENADO IN NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY MEASURED 0.04" THIS EVE. KSTS AIRPORT HAD A TRACE
LIGHT RAIN.

A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL
COAST TO THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL GENERATE A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH
THE RAIN TRENDING TO MODERATE AT TIMES BY EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAY AREA. THE 00Z NAM MODEL FORECASTS BRIEFLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVING IN THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
BUT CHILLY AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW PATTERNS LIKE THIS OFTEN PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT POCKETS RAIN OR BRIEF SHOWERS A BIT LONGER AND ONCE
IN A GREAT WHILE DURING PERIODS WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER/NO
QPF. 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS FROM THE 00Z NAM MODEL ENDING 10 PM FRIDAY
EVENING ARE RUNNING UPWARDS OF 8/10" RAIN NORTH BAY...1/3" SF
PENINSULA...EAST AND SOUTH BAYS...AND ABOUT 2/10" N CENTRAL COAST.
THIS IS A LITTLE WETTER NORTH AND A LITTLE DRIER SOUTH COMPARED TO
THE 18Z NAM RUN. ISOLATED 1" RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS DUE TO WEAK OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS ON SW
WINDS. THE RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS AREA-WIDE STILL
PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
FRIDAY. RAINFALL RATES PER THE 00Z NAM MODEL APPEAR TO REACH A
MAXIMUM BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
OVER THE NORTH BAY AS A PERSISTENTLY MOIST EPAC FLOW BRINGS YET
ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO NORTHERN CA. MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO REACH
MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE COASTAL RANGES NORTHWARD TO THE PAC NW.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE BAY AREA.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1/4"-1/2" RAIN HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND QUICKLY LOWERING TO TRACE AMOUNTS
SOUTHERN NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES. BY ABOUT THIS TIME IN THE
WEEKEND THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES SOME AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVERLAPPING NORTHERN CA BRINGING A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER TO ALL AREAS.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE PACIFIC NW NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED AND JUST BEYOND A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EPAC/GULF OF ALASKA PER RECENT NWS CPC`S OUTLOOKS AND
DISCUSSIONS FOR THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS SUGGESTING
HIGHER PROB OF A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR CA. COMPARING EARLIER
TODAY`S 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODELS TO THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS THEY ARE INDICATING APPROX 50% REDUCTION IN 10 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...RADAR HAS
CONTINUED TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
HANDFUL OF GAUGES PICKING UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS OUR FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK TAKES
AIM ON OUR CWA.

RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND START AS WARM FRONTAL RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS DOWN THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MORNING
COMMUTE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WET FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL HITTING THE NORTH BAY CLOSE TO SUNRISE...DOWN
TO SF BAY LATE IN THE MORNING...AND TO MONTEREY BAY AND SOUTH BY
NOON TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HILLS. SPOTS ABOVE 1000 FEET CLOUD SEE LOCAL GUSTS OVER
30 MPH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THAT POINT WILL BE
MOSTLY A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS FOR URBAN SPOTS WILL LOCALLY MORE
THAN 1 INCH FOR THE NORTH BAY. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES AND MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
HITS ANY OF OUR RECENT PROBLEM AREAS. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WEATHER
TO RETURN. THE STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AT LEAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. DOPPLER
RADAR IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY.
CIGS ARE GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH MAINLY CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN
EXPECTED BY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO MVFR
AROUND 2000-2500 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 3000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS WITH WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT LARGE NW SWELLS WILL BUILD INTO
THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SEAS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OCEAN AND NEAR THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190518
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
918 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER
SATURDAY BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF
NEXT WEEK INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:07 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR DECEMBER 18TH IT
WAS A MILD DAY OVER THE AREA...NORMAL LOWS FOR DEC 18TH RUN IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S MILDEST CLOSEST TO THE OCEAN AND BAY
WATERS...BUT THE CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED OVER THE AREA SINCE
LATE LAST NIGHT HELPED SUSTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS. METAR OBS...MESOWEST OBS AND KMUX RADAR SHOWED
A FEW AREAS OF PERIODICALLY VERY LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES. VENADO IN NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY MEASURED 0.04" THIS EVE. KSTS AIRPORT HAD A TRACE
LIGHT RAIN.

A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL
COAST TO THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL GENERATE A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH
THE RAIN TRENDING TO MODERATE AT TIMES BY EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAY AREA. THE 00Z NAM MODEL FORECASTS BRIEFLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVING IN THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
BUT CHILLY AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW PATTERNS LIKE THIS OFTEN PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT POCKETS RAIN OR BRIEF SHOWERS A BIT LONGER AND ONCE
IN A GREAT WHILE DURING PERIODS WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER/NO
QPF. 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS FROM THE 00Z NAM MODEL ENDING 10 PM FRIDAY
EVENING ARE RUNNING UPWARDS OF 8/10" RAIN NORTH BAY...1/3" SF
PENINSULA...EAST AND SOUTH BAYS...AND ABOUT 2/10" N CENTRAL COAST.
THIS IS A LITTLE WETTER NORTH AND A LITTLE DRIER SOUTH COMPARED TO
THE 18Z NAM RUN. ISOLATED 1" RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS DUE TO WEAK OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS ON SW
WINDS. THE RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS AREA-WIDE STILL
PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
FRIDAY. RAINFALL RATES PER THE 00Z NAM MODEL APPEAR TO REACH A
MAXIMUM BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
OVER THE NORTH BAY AS A PERSISTENTLY MOIST EPAC FLOW BRINGS YET
ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO NORTHERN CA. MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO REACH
MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE COASTAL RANGES NORTHWARD TO THE PAC NW.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE BAY AREA.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1/4"-1/2" RAIN HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND QUICKLY LOWERING TO TRACE AMOUNTS
SOUTHERN NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES. BY ABOUT THIS TIME IN THE
WEEKEND THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES SOME AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVERLAPPING NORTHERN CA BRINGING A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER TO ALL AREAS.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE PACIFIC NW NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED AND JUST BEYOND A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EPAC/GULF OF ALASKA PER RECENT NWS CPC`S OUTLOOKS AND
DISCUSSIONS FOR THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS SUGGESTING
HIGHER PROB OF A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR CA. COMPARING EARLIER
TODAY`S 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODELS TO THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS THEY ARE INDICATING APPROX 50% REDUCTION IN 10 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...RADAR HAS
CONTINUED TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
HANDFUL OF GAUGES PICKING UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS OUR FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK TAKES
AIM ON OUR CWA.

RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND START AS WARM FRONTAL RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS DOWN THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MORNING
COMMUTE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WET FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL HITTING THE NORTH BAY CLOSE TO SUNRISE...DOWN
TO SF BAY LATE IN THE MORNING...AND TO MONTEREY BAY AND SOUTH BY
NOON TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HILLS. SPOTS ABOVE 1000 FEET CLOUD SEE LOCAL GUSTS OVER
30 MPH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THAT POINT WILL BE
MOSTLY A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS FOR URBAN SPOTS WILL LOCALLY MORE
THAN 1 INCH FOR THE NORTH BAY. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES AND MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
HITS ANY OF OUR RECENT PROBLEM AREAS. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WEATHER
TO RETURN. THE STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AT LEAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER
SHOWERS MOVING IN BELOW THE RADAR CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NORTH
BAY. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 04Z OVER KSTS. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 2000-2500 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 3000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS WITH WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT LARGE NW SWELLS WILL BUILD INTO
THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SEAS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OCEAN AND NEAR THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 190518
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
918 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER
SATURDAY BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF
NEXT WEEK INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:07 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR DECEMBER 18TH IT
WAS A MILD DAY OVER THE AREA...NORMAL LOWS FOR DEC 18TH RUN IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S MILDEST CLOSEST TO THE OCEAN AND BAY
WATERS...BUT THE CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED OVER THE AREA SINCE
LATE LAST NIGHT HELPED SUSTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS. METAR OBS...MESOWEST OBS AND KMUX RADAR SHOWED
A FEW AREAS OF PERIODICALLY VERY LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES. VENADO IN NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY MEASURED 0.04" THIS EVE. KSTS AIRPORT HAD A TRACE
LIGHT RAIN.

A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL
COAST TO THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL GENERATE A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH
THE RAIN TRENDING TO MODERATE AT TIMES BY EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAY AREA. THE 00Z NAM MODEL FORECASTS BRIEFLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVING IN THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
BUT CHILLY AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW PATTERNS LIKE THIS OFTEN PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT POCKETS RAIN OR BRIEF SHOWERS A BIT LONGER AND ONCE
IN A GREAT WHILE DURING PERIODS WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER/NO
QPF. 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS FROM THE 00Z NAM MODEL ENDING 10 PM FRIDAY
EVENING ARE RUNNING UPWARDS OF 8/10" RAIN NORTH BAY...1/3" SF
PENINSULA...EAST AND SOUTH BAYS...AND ABOUT 2/10" N CENTRAL COAST.
THIS IS A LITTLE WETTER NORTH AND A LITTLE DRIER SOUTH COMPARED TO
THE 18Z NAM RUN. ISOLATED 1" RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS DUE TO WEAK OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS ON SW
WINDS. THE RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS AREA-WIDE STILL
PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
FRIDAY. RAINFALL RATES PER THE 00Z NAM MODEL APPEAR TO REACH A
MAXIMUM BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
OVER THE NORTH BAY AS A PERSISTENTLY MOIST EPAC FLOW BRINGS YET
ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO NORTHERN CA. MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO REACH
MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE COASTAL RANGES NORTHWARD TO THE PAC NW.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE BAY AREA.
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1/4"-1/2" RAIN HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND QUICKLY LOWERING TO TRACE AMOUNTS
SOUTHERN NAPA AND MARIN COUNTIES. BY ABOUT THIS TIME IN THE
WEEKEND THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES SOME AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVERLAPPING NORTHERN CA BRINGING A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER TO ALL AREAS.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE PACIFIC NW NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED AND JUST BEYOND A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EPAC/GULF OF ALASKA PER RECENT NWS CPC`S OUTLOOKS AND
DISCUSSIONS FOR THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS SUGGESTING
HIGHER PROB OF A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR CA. COMPARING EARLIER
TODAY`S 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODELS TO THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS THEY ARE INDICATING APPROX 50% REDUCTION IN 10 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...RADAR HAS
CONTINUED TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
HANDFUL OF GAUGES PICKING UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS OUR FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK TAKES
AIM ON OUR CWA.

RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND START AS WARM FRONTAL RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS DOWN THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MORNING
COMMUTE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WET FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL HITTING THE NORTH BAY CLOSE TO SUNRISE...DOWN
TO SF BAY LATE IN THE MORNING...AND TO MONTEREY BAY AND SOUTH BY
NOON TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HILLS. SPOTS ABOVE 1000 FEET CLOUD SEE LOCAL GUSTS OVER
30 MPH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THAT POINT WILL BE
MOSTLY A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS FOR URBAN SPOTS WILL LOCALLY MORE
THAN 1 INCH FOR THE NORTH BAY. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES AND MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
HITS ANY OF OUR RECENT PROBLEM AREAS. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WEATHER
TO RETURN. THE STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AT LEAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER
SHOWERS MOVING IN BELOW THE RADAR CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NORTH
BAY. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 04Z OVER KSTS. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 2000-2500 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 3000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS WITH WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT LARGE NW SWELLS WILL BUILD INTO
THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SEAS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OCEAN AND NEAR THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190033
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
433 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...RADAR HAS CONTINUED TO
PICK UP A FEW ECHOS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A HANDFUL OF
GAUGES PICKING UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS OUR FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK TAKES AIM ON OUR
CWA.

RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND START AS WARM FRONTAL RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS DOWN THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MORNING
COMMUTE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WET FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL HITTING THE NORTH BAY CLOSE TO SUNRISE...DOWN
TO SF BAY LATE IN THE MORNING...AND TO MONTEREY BAY AND SOUTH BY
NOON TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HILLS. SPOTS ABOVE 1000 FEET CLOUD SEE LOCAL GUSTS OVER
30 MPH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THAT POINT WILL BE
MOSTLY A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS FOR URBAN SPOTS WILL LOCALLY MORE
THAN 1 INCH FOR THE NORTH BAY. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES AND MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
HITS ANY OF OUR RECENT PROBLEM AREAS. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WEATHER
TO RETURN. THE STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AT LEAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER
SHOWERS MOVING IN BELOW THE RADAR CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NORTH
BAY. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 04Z OVER KSTS. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 2000-2500 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 3000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS WITH WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT LARGE NW SWELLS WILL BUILD INTO
THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SEAS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OCEAN AND NEAR THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190033
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
433 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...RADAR HAS CONTINUED TO
PICK UP A FEW ECHOS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A HANDFUL OF
GAUGES PICKING UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS OUR FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK TAKES AIM ON OUR
CWA.

RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND START AS WARM FRONTAL RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS DOWN THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MORNING
COMMUTE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WET FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL HITTING THE NORTH BAY CLOSE TO SUNRISE...DOWN
TO SF BAY LATE IN THE MORNING...AND TO MONTEREY BAY AND SOUTH BY
NOON TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HILLS. SPOTS ABOVE 1000 FEET CLOUD SEE LOCAL GUSTS OVER
30 MPH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THAT POINT WILL BE
MOSTLY A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS FOR URBAN SPOTS WILL LOCALLY MORE
THAN 1 INCH FOR THE NORTH BAY. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES AND MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
HITS ANY OF OUR RECENT PROBLEM AREAS. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WEATHER
TO RETURN. THE STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AT LEAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER
SHOWERS MOVING IN BELOW THE RADAR CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NORTH
BAY. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 04Z OVER KSTS. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 2000-2500 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 3000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS WITH WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT LARGE NW SWELLS WILL BUILD INTO
THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SEAS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OCEAN AND NEAR THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 182300
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...RADAR HAS CONTINUED TO
PICK UP A FEW ECHOS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A HANDFUL OF
GAUGES PICKING UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS OUR FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK TAKES AIM ON OUR
CWA.

RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND START AS WARM FRONTAL RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS DOWN THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MORNING
COMMUTE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WET FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL HITTING THE NORTH BAY CLOSE TO SUNRISE...DOWN
TO SF BAY LATE IN THE MORNING...AND TO MONTEREY BAY AND SOUTH BY
NOON TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HILLS. SPOTS ABOVE 1000 FEET CLOUD SEE LOCAL GUSTS OVER
30 MPH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THAT POINT WILL BE
MOSTLY A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS FOR URBAN SPOTS WILL LOCALLY MORE
THAN 1 INCH FOR THE NORTH BAY. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES AND MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
HITS ANY OF OUR RECENT PROBLEM AREAS. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WEATHER
TO RETURN. THE STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AT LEAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 AM PST THURSDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. STILL SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BUT MAINLY EXPECTING VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS TODAY AS SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE FRESH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS BEGIN OVERNIGHT THEN STEADY
RAINS INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY VFR CIGS TODAY BUT IN THE 3500 FOOT
RANGE WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND CLOUDS IN GENERAL
SHOULD THICKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
SHOW IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 3500-5000
FOOT RANGE IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. GENERAL WINDS TO REMAIN
SOUTHEAST BUT COULD BRIEFLY TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
SOUTHEAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. STEADY RAINS ARRIVE
CLOSER TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS WITH WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT LARGE NW SWELLS WILL BUILD INTO
THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SEAS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OCEAN AND NEAR THE COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 181752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
952 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST THURSDAY...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FEW ECHOS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CWA SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
PICKED UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPOTTY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WE
COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO A TENTH. RAIN WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA AND THEN MOVES NW TO SE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE LARGER SYSTEMS WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY...IT COULD STILL BRING A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
TO URBAN LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH MORE THAN AN INCH OVER
THE NORTH BAY HILLS.

BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GOING ACROSS. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL AT THAT TIME WITH A FEW HYDRO
ISSUES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT FOR LOWER
ELEVATION SPOTS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ABOVE 1000 FEET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 3:30 AM THURSDAY...RESIDUAL LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE STRONGER
ECHOES NOW WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THIS MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE RAINY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAINS SPREADING INTO
THE NORTH BAY AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTH BAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH LIGHTER RAIN SOUTH.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY. SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND IS
INDICATED FOR THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS OFFERING A DRY SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GEM BRING IN AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER KEEP CALIFORNIA UNDER AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH DECEMBER 23-27 AND 25-31
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 AM PST THURSDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. STILL SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BUT MAINLY EXPECTING VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS TODAY AS SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE FRESH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS BEGIN OVERNIGHT THEN STEADY
RAINS INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY VFR CIGS TODAY BUT IN THE 3500 FOOT
RANGE WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND CLOUDS IN GENERAL
SHOULD THICKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
SHOW IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 3500-5000
FOOT RANGE IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. GENERAL WINDS TO REMAIN
SOUTHEAST BUT COULD BRIEFLY TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
SOUTHEAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. STEADY RAINS ARRIVE
CLOSER TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:52 AM PST THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A LONG
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IMPACTS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LARGEST
SWELL WILL BE NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE
LARGE SWELL WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 181752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
952 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST THURSDAY...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FEW ECHOS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CWA SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
PICKED UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPOTTY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WE
COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO A TENTH. RAIN WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA AND THEN MOVES NW TO SE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE LARGER SYSTEMS WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY...IT COULD STILL BRING A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
TO URBAN LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH MORE THAN AN INCH OVER
THE NORTH BAY HILLS.

BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GOING ACROSS. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL AT THAT TIME WITH A FEW HYDRO
ISSUES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT FOR LOWER
ELEVATION SPOTS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ABOVE 1000 FEET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 3:30 AM THURSDAY...RESIDUAL LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE STRONGER
ECHOES NOW WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THIS MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE RAINY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAINS SPREADING INTO
THE NORTH BAY AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTH BAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH LIGHTER RAIN SOUTH.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY. SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND IS
INDICATED FOR THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS OFFERING A DRY SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GEM BRING IN AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER KEEP CALIFORNIA UNDER AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH DECEMBER 23-27 AND 25-31
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 AM PST THURSDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. STILL SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BUT MAINLY EXPECTING VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS TODAY AS SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE FRESH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS BEGIN OVERNIGHT THEN STEADY
RAINS INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY VFR CIGS TODAY BUT IN THE 3500 FOOT
RANGE WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND CLOUDS IN GENERAL
SHOULD THICKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
SHOW IN TAF. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 3500-5000
FOOT RANGE IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. GENERAL WINDS TO REMAIN
SOUTHEAST BUT COULD BRIEFLY TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
SOUTHEAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. STEADY RAINS ARRIVE
CLOSER TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:52 AM PST THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A LONG
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IMPACTS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LARGEST
SWELL WILL BE NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE
LARGE SWELL WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 181646
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
846 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST THURSDAY...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FEW ECHOS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CWA SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
PICKED UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPOTTY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WE
COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO A TENTH. RAIN WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA AND THEN MOVES NW TO SE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE LARGER SYSTEMS WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY...IT COULD STILL BRING A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
TO URBAN LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH MORE THAN AN INCH OVER
THE NORTH BAY HILLS.

BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GOING ACROSS. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL AT THAT TIME WITH A FEW HYDRO
ISSUES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT FOR LOWER
ELEVATION SPOTS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ABOVE 1000 FEET.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING
WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DISTRICT WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES NOW WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE
RAINY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAINS SPREADING INTO
THE NORTH BAY AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTH BAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH LIGHTER RAIN SOUTH.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY. SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND IS
INDICATED FOR THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS OFFERING A DRY SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GEM BRING IN AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER KEEP CALIFORNIA UNDER AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH DECEMBER 23-27 AND 25-31
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:35 AM PST THURSDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE STILL IMPACTING TERMINALS...BUT THOSE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE STORY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. CIGS WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...FIRST N BAY THEN SPREADING SOUTH. WET RUNWAYS SEE LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSJC NORTHWARD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR COND RETURN OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWERING CIGS AND -RA BY 08Z. WINDS SE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WITH A LINGERING VCSH.
CIGS LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMES IN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:35 AM PST THURSDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATER STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE PUTS A FORERUNNER WAVE OF NEAR 20 SEC AS EARLY AT 18Z
FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN WATERS. THE PERIOD WILL DIMINISH...BUT THE
SWELL WILL INCREASE 16 TO 19 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS.
THEREFORE...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE LARGE SWELL WILL ALSO IMPACT THE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF POINT REYES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SURF
15-18 FEET WITH A FEW BREAKERS OVER 20 FEET. LARGEST SURF NORTH OF
PT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 181646
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
846 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST THURSDAY...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FEW ECHOS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CWA SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
PICKED UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPOTTY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WE
COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO A TENTH. RAIN WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES OUR
AREA AND THEN MOVES NW TO SE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE LARGER SYSTEMS WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY...IT COULD STILL BRING A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
TO URBAN LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH MORE THAN AN INCH OVER
THE NORTH BAY HILLS.

BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GOING ACROSS. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL AT THAT TIME WITH A FEW HYDRO
ISSUES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT FOR LOWER
ELEVATION SPOTS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ABOVE 1000 FEET.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING
WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DISTRICT WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES NOW WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE
RAINY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAINS SPREADING INTO
THE NORTH BAY AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTH BAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH LIGHTER RAIN SOUTH.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY. SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND IS
INDICATED FOR THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS OFFERING A DRY SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GEM BRING IN AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER KEEP CALIFORNIA UNDER AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH DECEMBER 23-27 AND 25-31
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:35 AM PST THURSDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE STILL IMPACTING TERMINALS...BUT THOSE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE STORY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. CIGS WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...FIRST N BAY THEN SPREADING SOUTH. WET RUNWAYS SEE LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSJC NORTHWARD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR COND RETURN OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWERING CIGS AND -RA BY 08Z. WINDS SE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WITH A LINGERING VCSH.
CIGS LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMES IN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:35 AM PST THURSDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATER STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE PUTS A FORERUNNER WAVE OF NEAR 20 SEC AS EARLY AT 18Z
FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN WATERS. THE PERIOD WILL DIMINISH...BUT THE
SWELL WILL INCREASE 16 TO 19 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS.
THEREFORE...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE LARGE SWELL WILL ALSO IMPACT THE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF POINT REYES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SURF
15-18 FEET WITH A FEW BREAKERS OVER 20 FEET. LARGEST SURF NORTH OF
PT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 181142
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
342 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST THURSDAY...RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE STILL OCCURRING WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES NOW
WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE RAINY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAINS SPREADING INTO
THE NORTH BAY AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND ISN`T EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH LIGHTER RAIN
SOUTH. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY. SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND IS
INDICATED FOR THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS OFFERING A DRY SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GEM BRING IN AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER KEEP CALIFORNIA UNDER AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH DECEMBER 23-27 AND 25-31
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:35 AM PST THURSDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE STILL IMPACTING TERMINALS...BUT THOSE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE STORY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. CIGS WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...FIRST N BAY THEN SPREADING SOUTH. WET RUNWAYS SEE LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSJC NORTHWARD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR COND RETURN OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWERING CIGS AND -RA BY 08Z. WINDS SE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WITH A LINGERING VCSH.
CIGS LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMES IN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:35 AM PST THURSDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATER STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE PUTS A FORERUNNER WAVE OF NEAR 20 SEC AS EARLY AT 18Z
FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN WATERS. THE PERIOD WILL DIMINISH...BUT THE
SWELL WILL INCREASE 16 TO 19 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS.
THEREFORE...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE LARGE SWELL WILL ALSO IMPACT THE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF POINT REYES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SURF
15-18 FEET WITH A FEW BREAKERS OVER 20 FEET. LARGEST SURF NORTH OF
PT REYES.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181142
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
342 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST THURSDAY...RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE STILL OCCURRING WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES NOW
WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE RAINY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAINS SPREADING INTO
THE NORTH BAY AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND ISN`T EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH LIGHTER RAIN
SOUTH. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY. SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND IS
INDICATED FOR THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS OFFERING A DRY SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GEM BRING IN AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER KEEP CALIFORNIA UNDER AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH DECEMBER 23-27 AND 25-31
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:35 AM PST THURSDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE STILL IMPACTING TERMINALS...BUT THOSE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE STORY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. CIGS WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...FIRST N BAY THEN SPREADING SOUTH. WET RUNWAYS SEE LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSJC NORTHWARD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR COND RETURN OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWERING CIGS AND -RA BY 08Z. WINDS SE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WITH A LINGERING VCSH.
CIGS LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMES IN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:35 AM PST THURSDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATER STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE PUTS A FORERUNNER WAVE OF NEAR 20 SEC AS EARLY AT 18Z
FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN WATERS. THE PERIOD WILL DIMINISH...BUT THE
SWELL WILL INCREASE 16 TO 19 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS.
THEREFORE...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE LARGE SWELL WILL ALSO IMPACT THE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF POINT REYES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SURF
15-18 FEET WITH A FEW BREAKERS OVER 20 FEET. LARGEST SURF NORTH OF
PT REYES.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181130
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
330 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST THURSDAY...RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE STILL OCCURRING WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES NOW
WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE RAINY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAINS SPREADING INTO
THE NORTH BAY AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND ISN`T EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH LIGHTER RAIN
SOUTH. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY. SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND IS
INDICATED FOR THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS OFFERING A DRY SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GEM BRING IN AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER KEEP CALIFORNIA UNDER AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH DECEMBER 23-27 AND 25-31
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:51 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER
CIGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:02 AM PST THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A LONG
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IMPACTS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LARGEST
SWELL WILL BE NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE
LARGE SWELL WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181130
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
330 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA WILL MOVE IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST THURSDAY...RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE STILL OCCURRING WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES NOW
WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE RAINY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAINS SPREADING INTO
THE NORTH BAY AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND ISN`T EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH LIGHTER RAIN
SOUTH. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY. SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND IS
INDICATED FOR THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS OFFERING A DRY SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GEM BRING IN AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT BOTH
THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER KEEP CALIFORNIA UNDER AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH DECEMBER 23-27 AND 25-31
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:51 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER
CIGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:02 AM PST THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A LONG
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IMPACTS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LARGEST
SWELL WILL BE NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE
LARGE SWELL WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 180551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
951 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE SENDING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EASTWARD FROM THE BAY AREA TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS EVENING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY AND MOVED OVER THE AREA
RESULTING IN HOURLY RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF 0.30" TO 0.40" OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND RAIN RATES GENERALLY 0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. MINOR FLOODING ISSUES REMAINS A RISK DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS AND ABOVE NORMAL DECEMBER RAINS. MORE RAIN IS IN THE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR 1ST OR 2ND PERIOD FORECASTS AS THE PRESENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH TRENDS INDICATING GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWER
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE A VISITOR TO THE AREA THURSDAY PROVIDING
A VERY SHORT TERM DRY BREAK OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
OVER THE NORTH BAY IT`S POSSIBLE OFF AND ON SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
NEVER REALLY COMPLETELY CEASES AS A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ARRIVES (SOURCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT)
FOLLOWED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS SOON AS
THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN TOTALS BASED
ON 00Z NAM MODEL UPWARDS OF 1" OVER SONOMA...MARIN AND NAPA
COUNTIES...UPWARDS OF 1/3" OVER SAN FRANCISCO...SAN MATEO...SANTA
CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES AND 1/4" OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER IS THIS WEEKEND WHEN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EDGES CLOSER TO NORCAL.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECASTS GO WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:51 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER
CIGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:51 PM PST WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. A
LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 180551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
951 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE SENDING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EASTWARD FROM THE BAY AREA TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS EVENING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY AND MOVED OVER THE AREA
RESULTING IN HOURLY RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF 0.30" TO 0.40" OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND RAIN RATES GENERALLY 0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. MINOR FLOODING ISSUES REMAINS A RISK DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS AND ABOVE NORMAL DECEMBER RAINS. MORE RAIN IS IN THE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR 1ST OR 2ND PERIOD FORECASTS AS THE PRESENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH TRENDS INDICATING GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWER
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE A VISITOR TO THE AREA THURSDAY PROVIDING
A VERY SHORT TERM DRY BREAK OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
OVER THE NORTH BAY IT`S POSSIBLE OFF AND ON SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
NEVER REALLY COMPLETELY CEASES AS A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ARRIVES (SOURCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT)
FOLLOWED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS SOON AS
THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN TOTALS BASED
ON 00Z NAM MODEL UPWARDS OF 1" OVER SONOMA...MARIN AND NAPA
COUNTIES...UPWARDS OF 1/3" OVER SAN FRANCISCO...SAN MATEO...SANTA
CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES AND 1/4" OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER IS THIS WEEKEND WHEN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EDGES CLOSER TO NORCAL.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECASTS GO WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:51 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER
CIGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:51 PM PST WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. A
LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 180452
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
852 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE SENDING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EASTWARD FROM THE BAY AREA TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS EVENING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY AND MOVED OVER THE AREA
RESULTING IN HOURLY RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF 0.30" TO 0.40" OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND RAIN RATES GENERALLY 0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. MINOR FLOODING ISSUES REMAINS A RISK DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS AND ABOVE NORMAL DECEMBER RAINS. MORE RAIN IS IN THE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR 1ST OR 2ND PERIOD FORECASTS AS THE PRESENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH TRENDS INDICATING GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWER
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE A VISITOR TO THE AREA THURSDAY PROVIDING
A VERY SHORT TERM DRY BREAK OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
OVER THE NORTH BAY IT`S POSSIBLE OFF AND ON SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
NEVER REALLY COMPLETELY CEASES AS A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ARRIVES (SOURCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT)
FOLLOWED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS SOON AS
THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN TOTALS BASED
ON 00Z NAM MODEL UPWARDS OF 1" OVER SONOMA...MARIN AND NAPA
COUNTIES...UPWARDS OF 1/3" OVER SAN FRANCISCO...SAN MATEO...SANTA
CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES AND 1/4" OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER IS THIS WEEKEND WHEN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EDGES CLOSER TO NORCAL.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECASTS GO WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS ON THE WAY WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN
02Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY AREA THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH 08Z
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:46 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 180452
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
852 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE SENDING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EASTWARD FROM THE BAY AREA TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS EVENING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY AND MOVED OVER THE AREA
RESULTING IN HOURLY RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF 0.30" TO 0.40" OVER THE
NORTH BAY AND RAIN RATES GENERALLY 0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. MINOR FLOODING ISSUES REMAINS A RISK DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS AND ABOVE NORMAL DECEMBER RAINS. MORE RAIN IS IN THE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR 1ST OR 2ND PERIOD FORECASTS AS THE PRESENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH TRENDS INDICATING GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWER
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE A VISITOR TO THE AREA THURSDAY PROVIDING
A VERY SHORT TERM DRY BREAK OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
OVER THE NORTH BAY IT`S POSSIBLE OFF AND ON SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
NEVER REALLY COMPLETELY CEASES AS A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ARRIVES (SOURCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT)
FOLLOWED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS SOON AS
THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN TOTALS BASED
ON 00Z NAM MODEL UPWARDS OF 1" OVER SONOMA...MARIN AND NAPA
COUNTIES...UPWARDS OF 1/3" OVER SAN FRANCISCO...SAN MATEO...SANTA
CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES AND 1/4" OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER IS THIS WEEKEND WHEN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EDGES CLOSER TO NORCAL.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECASTS GO WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS ON THE WAY WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN
02Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY AREA THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH 08Z
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:46 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 180002
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
402 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS ON THE WAY WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN
02Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY AREA THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH 08Z
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:46 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 180002
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
402 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS ON THE WAY WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN
02Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY AREA THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH 08Z
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:46 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 172200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH
THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADVANCED THE TIMING OF RAINFALL TO BE A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STEADY SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2100Z WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING 8 TO 12
KT AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2300Z WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES OVER THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:43 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 172200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH
THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADVANCED THE TIMING OF RAINFALL TO BE A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STEADY SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2100Z WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING 8 TO 12
KT AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2300Z WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES OVER THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:43 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 172200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH
THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADVANCED THE TIMING OF RAINFALL TO BE A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STEADY SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2100Z WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING 8 TO 12
KT AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2300Z WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES OVER THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:43 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 172200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
RESULT IN DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.10" TO 0.15" IN URBAN AREAS WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING
UP AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT OF A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK...YET THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 0.50"
TO 1.00" IN THE NORTH BAY...GENERALLY BELOW 0.50" OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 0.25" OR LESS SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET A MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
DRYING TREND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE VERY SATURATED SOILS CAUSED BY THE
MUCH NEEDED RECENT RAINFALL. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE
NEXT WEEK ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
COLD AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...YET PUSHES THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH
THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADVANCED THE TIMING OF RAINFALL TO BE A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STEADY SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2100Z WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING 8 TO 12
KT AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2300Z WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES OVER THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:43 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 171811
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1011 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TO THE AREA WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:05 AM PST WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. THUS...HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.15" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH UP
TO 0.25" POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:26 AM PST WEDNESDAY...RADAR LOOPS SHOW
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS MARIN COUNTY INTO ALAMEDA AND
CONTRA COSTA COUNTIES. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. MOST OF TODAY SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE RAIN...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...THE REST OF THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN EDGING EASTWARD OVER
THE STATE AND PUSHING THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
USHER IN A DRYING TREND THAT COULD PERSIST UNTIL OR BEYOND
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONG OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND THE GEM BOTH
BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BRING COOL...SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 13:00 AM PST TUESDAY...THE IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH
THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADVANCED THE TIMING OF RAINFALL TO BE A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STEADY SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2100Z WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING 8 TO 12
KT AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2300Z WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:43 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 171811
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1011 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TO THE AREA WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:05 AM PST WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. THUS...HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.15" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH UP
TO 0.25" POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:26 AM PST WEDNESDAY...RADAR LOOPS SHOW
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS MARIN COUNTY INTO ALAMEDA AND
CONTRA COSTA COUNTIES. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. MOST OF TODAY SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE RAIN...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...THE REST OF THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN EDGING EASTWARD OVER
THE STATE AND PUSHING THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
USHER IN A DRYING TREND THAT COULD PERSIST UNTIL OR BEYOND
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONG OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND THE GEM BOTH
BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BRING COOL...SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 13:00 AM PST TUESDAY...THE IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH
THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADVANCED THE TIMING OF RAINFALL TO BE A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STEADY SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2100Z WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING 8 TO 12
KT AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2300Z WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:43 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 171804
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1004 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE DISTRICT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THAN THE LAST FEW
STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
BRING A DRYING TREND TO THE AREA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:26 AM PST WEDNESDAY...RADAR LOOPS SHOW SHOWERS
ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN MOVING ACROSS MARIN COUNTY INTO ALAMEDA AND CONTRA COSTA
COUNTIES. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF TODAY SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN...BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...THE REST OF THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN EDGING EASTWARD OVER
THE STATE AND PUSHING THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
USHER IN A DRYING TREND THAT COULD PERSIST UNTIL OR BEYOND
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONG OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND THE GEM BOTH
BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BRING COOL...SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 13:00 AM PST TUESDAY...THE IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH
THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...ADVANCED THE TIMING OF RAINFALL TO BE A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STEADY SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2100Z WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING 8 TO 12
KT AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 2300Z WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 0200 AND 0600Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:43 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 171142
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
342 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE DISTRICT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THAN THE LAST FEW
STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
BRING A DRYING TREND TO THE AREA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:26 AM PST WEDNESDAY...RADAR LOOPS SHOW SHOWERS
ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN MOVING ACROSS MARIN COUNTY INTO ALAMEDA AND CONTRA COSTA
COUNTIES. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF TODAY SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN...BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...THE REST OF THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN EDGING EASTWARD OVER
THE STATE AND PUSHING THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
USHER IN A DRYING TREND THAT COULD PERSIST UNTIL OR BEYOND
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONG OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND THE GEM BOTH
BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BRING COOL...SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST TUESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...BUT FOR MOST TERMINALS LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WITH A BREAK IN
THE ACTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE BAY AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE RAIN WILL STILL FORECAST LOW END VFR CONDITIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR FOR THE FORECAST WITH STEADIER PRECIP
RETURNING AFTER 00Z. LIGHT WINDS THIS AM THEN SW AND W THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOME SE AFTER 00Z AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS FOR THE FORECAST. PRECIP
RETURNS CLOSE TO 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:37 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 171142
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
342 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE DISTRICT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THAN THE LAST FEW
STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
BRING A DRYING TREND TO THE AREA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:26 AM PST WEDNESDAY...RADAR LOOPS SHOW SHOWERS
ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN MOVING ACROSS MARIN COUNTY INTO ALAMEDA AND CONTRA COSTA
COUNTIES. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF TODAY SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN...BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...THE REST OF THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN EDGING EASTWARD OVER
THE STATE AND PUSHING THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
USHER IN A DRYING TREND THAT COULD PERSIST UNTIL OR BEYOND
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONG OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND THE GEM BOTH
BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BRING COOL...SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST TUESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...BUT FOR MOST TERMINALS LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WITH A BREAK IN
THE ACTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE BAY AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE RAIN WILL STILL FORECAST LOW END VFR CONDITIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR FOR THE FORECAST WITH STEADIER PRECIP
RETURNING AFTER 00Z. LIGHT WINDS THIS AM THEN SW AND W THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOME SE AFTER 00Z AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS FOR THE FORECAST. PRECIP
RETURNS CLOSE TO 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:37 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 171126
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
326 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE DISTRICT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THAN THE LAST FEW
STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
BRING A DRYING TREND TO THE AREA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:26 AM PST WEDNESDAY...RADAR LOOPS SHOW SHOWERS
ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN MOVING ACROSS MARIN COUNTY INTO ALAMEDA AND CONTRA COSTA
COUNTIES. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF TODAY SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN...BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...THE REST OF THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN EDGING EASTWARD OVER
THE STATE AND PUSHING THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
USHER IN A DRYING TREND THAT COULD PERSIST UNTIL OR BEYOND
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONG OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND THE GEM BOTH
BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BRING COOL...SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS...SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFT EAST.
WINDS HAVE EASED BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST BY MORNING THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS APPROACHES
THE REGION. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REINTRODUCE SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:31 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 171126
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
326 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE DISTRICT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THAN THE LAST FEW
STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
BRING A DRYING TREND TO THE AREA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:26 AM PST WEDNESDAY...RADAR LOOPS SHOW SHOWERS
ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN MOVING ACROSS MARIN COUNTY INTO ALAMEDA AND CONTRA COSTA
COUNTIES. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF TODAY SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN...BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...THE REST OF THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN EDGING EASTWARD OVER
THE STATE AND PUSHING THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
USHER IN A DRYING TREND THAT COULD PERSIST UNTIL OR BEYOND
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONG OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND THE GEM BOTH
BRING AN INSIDE SLIDER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BRING COOL...SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS...SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFT EAST.
WINDS HAVE EASED BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST BY MORNING THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS APPROACHES
THE REGION. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REINTRODUCE SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:31 AM PST WEDNESDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MODERATE NORTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 170603
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1003 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO
SHOWERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL CREATE CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS
AND ELEVATED CONCERNS OF MUDSLIDES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A FEW MORE QUICK MOVING
WEAK SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 7:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE
WITHIN A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS BEING ADVECTED SE OVER
THE SF BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH
SHOWS UP NICELY AND IS READILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP THIS EVENING. THE 500 MB LEVEL COLD POOL OF AIR...AS COLD AS
-25C...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPUR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER ABOVE NORMAL DEC SEA TEMPS WITH LIFTED INDEXES
DOWN TO -3 TO -4 AND CAPE UPWARDS OF 900-1000 J/KG THIS EVE. THE
ACTIVE LIGHTNING PATTERN OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE OUTER CA
COASTAL WATERS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. LOW
TOPPED CELLS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF ORGANIZATION THEN RAPIDLY
PULSE DOWN. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL ON SATURATED
SOILS. IT`S BEEN A BUSY SHIFT CONTINUING ON FROM THE BUSY DAY
SHIFT WITH A CLOSE MONITORING OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN RATES...RISES
ON CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STEADY INCOMING REPORTS OF URBAN
FLOODING. THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES PRESENTLY
COVER SONOMA...NAPA...MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO...SAN MATEO... CONTRA
COSTA...ALAMEDA...SANTA CLARA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THROUGH 8:30
PM PST. ANOTHER URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY COVERS
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES THROUGH 9:15 PM PST. WE
ANTICIPATE A STEADY TAPERING OFF OF THE MOD-HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT.
NOT SURE IF WE NEED TO EXTEND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES
BEYOND PRESENT EXPIRATION TIMES...WILL RE-VISIT LATER THIS EVE.
OTHERWISE WE CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTIVE AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL. SOCIAL MEDIA INFO...INTERACTIONS HAVE BEEN/CONTINUE TO
BE QUITE HELPFUL AND ARE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED! LIMITED TIME TO
WRITE ADDITIONAL AS OF NOW. WILL LET PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE STAY
AS IS. IF TIME ALLOWS LATER IN SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FORECAST
PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS...SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFT EAST.
WINDS HAVE EASED BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST BY MORNING THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS APPROACHES
THE REGION. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REINTRODUCE SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 PM PST TUESDAY...A PASSING COLD FRONT IS
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS. NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 170603
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1003 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO
SHOWERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL CREATE CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS
AND ELEVATED CONCERNS OF MUDSLIDES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A FEW MORE QUICK MOVING
WEAK SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 7:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE
WITHIN A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS BEING ADVECTED SE OVER
THE SF BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH
SHOWS UP NICELY AND IS READILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP THIS EVENING. THE 500 MB LEVEL COLD POOL OF AIR...AS COLD AS
-25C...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPUR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER ABOVE NORMAL DEC SEA TEMPS WITH LIFTED INDEXES
DOWN TO -3 TO -4 AND CAPE UPWARDS OF 900-1000 J/KG THIS EVE. THE
ACTIVE LIGHTNING PATTERN OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE OUTER CA
COASTAL WATERS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. LOW
TOPPED CELLS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF ORGANIZATION THEN RAPIDLY
PULSE DOWN. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL ON SATURATED
SOILS. IT`S BEEN A BUSY SHIFT CONTINUING ON FROM THE BUSY DAY
SHIFT WITH A CLOSE MONITORING OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN RATES...RISES
ON CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STEADY INCOMING REPORTS OF URBAN
FLOODING. THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES PRESENTLY
COVER SONOMA...NAPA...MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO...SAN MATEO... CONTRA
COSTA...ALAMEDA...SANTA CLARA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THROUGH 8:30
PM PST. ANOTHER URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY COVERS
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES THROUGH 9:15 PM PST. WE
ANTICIPATE A STEADY TAPERING OFF OF THE MOD-HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT.
NOT SURE IF WE NEED TO EXTEND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES
BEYOND PRESENT EXPIRATION TIMES...WILL RE-VISIT LATER THIS EVE.
OTHERWISE WE CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTIVE AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL. SOCIAL MEDIA INFO...INTERACTIONS HAVE BEEN/CONTINUE TO
BE QUITE HELPFUL AND ARE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED! LIMITED TIME TO
WRITE ADDITIONAL AS OF NOW. WILL LET PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE STAY
AS IS. IF TIME ALLOWS LATER IN SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FORECAST
PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS...SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFT EAST.
WINDS HAVE EASED BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST BY MORNING THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS APPROACHES
THE REGION. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REINTRODUCE SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 PM PST TUESDAY...A PASSING COLD FRONT IS
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS. NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 170329
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
729 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO
SHOWERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL CREATE CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS
AND ELEVATED CONCERNS OF MUDSLIDES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A FEW MORE QUICK MOVING
WEAK SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 7:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE
WITHIN A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS BEING ADVECTED SE OVER
THE SF BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH
SHOWS UP NICELY AND IS READILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP THIS EVENING. THE 500 MB LEVEL COLD POOL OF AIR...AS COLD AS
-25C...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPUR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER ABOVE NORMAL DEC SEA TEMPS WITH LIFTED INDEXES
DOWN TO -3 TO -4 AND CAPE UPWARDS OF 900-1000 J/KG THIS EVE. THE
ACTIVE LIGHTNING PATTERN OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE OUTER CA
COASTAL WATERS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. LOW
TOPPED CELLS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF ORGANIZATION THEN RAPIDLY
PULSE DOWN. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL ON SATURATED
SOILS. IT`S BEEN A BUSY SHIFT CONTINUING ON FROM THE BUSY DAY
SHIFT WITH A CLOSE MONITORING OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN RATES...RISES
ON CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STEADY INCOMING REPORTS OF URBAN
FLOODING. THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES PRESENTLY
COVER SONOMA...NAPA...MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO...SAN MATEO... CONTRA
COSTA...ALAMEDA...SANTA CLARA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THROUGH 8:30
PM PST. ANOTHER URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY COVERS
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES THROUGH 9:15 PM PST. WE
ANTICIPATE A STEADY TAPERING OFF OF THE MOD-HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT.
NOT SURE IF WE NEED TO EXTEND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES
BEYOND PRESENT EXPIRATION TIMES...WILL RE-VISIT LATER THIS EVE.
OTHERWISE WE CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTIVE AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL. SOCIAL MEDIA INFO...INTERACTIONS HAVE BEEN/CONTINUE TO
BE QUITE HELPFUL AND ARE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED! LIMITED TIME TO
WRITE ADDITIONAL AS OF NOW. WILL LET PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE STAY
AS IS. IF TIME ALLOWS LATER IN SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FORECAST
PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO HIT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 18Z-20Z
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PRESENT A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN ADDITION...
THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
HYDROLOGY: MS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 170329
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
729 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO
SHOWERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL CREATE CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS
AND ELEVATED CONCERNS OF MUDSLIDES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A FEW MORE QUICK MOVING
WEAK SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 7:24 PM PST TUESDAY...A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE
WITHIN A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS BEING ADVECTED SE OVER
THE SF BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH
SHOWS UP NICELY AND IS READILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP THIS EVENING. THE 500 MB LEVEL COLD POOL OF AIR...AS COLD AS
-25C...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPUR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER ABOVE NORMAL DEC SEA TEMPS WITH LIFTED INDEXES
DOWN TO -3 TO -4 AND CAPE UPWARDS OF 900-1000 J/KG THIS EVE. THE
ACTIVE LIGHTNING PATTERN OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE OUTER CA
COASTAL WATERS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. LOW
TOPPED CELLS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF ORGANIZATION THEN RAPIDLY
PULSE DOWN. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL ON SATURATED
SOILS. IT`S BEEN A BUSY SHIFT CONTINUING ON FROM THE BUSY DAY
SHIFT WITH A CLOSE MONITORING OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN RATES...RISES
ON CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STEADY INCOMING REPORTS OF URBAN
FLOODING. THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES PRESENTLY
COVER SONOMA...NAPA...MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO...SAN MATEO... CONTRA
COSTA...ALAMEDA...SANTA CLARA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THROUGH 8:30
PM PST. ANOTHER URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY COVERS
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES THROUGH 9:15 PM PST. WE
ANTICIPATE A STEADY TAPERING OFF OF THE MOD-HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT.
NOT SURE IF WE NEED TO EXTEND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES
BEYOND PRESENT EXPIRATION TIMES...WILL RE-VISIT LATER THIS EVE.
OTHERWISE WE CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTIVE AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL. SOCIAL MEDIA INFO...INTERACTIONS HAVE BEEN/CONTINUE TO
BE QUITE HELPFUL AND ARE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED! LIMITED TIME TO
WRITE ADDITIONAL AS OF NOW. WILL LET PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE STAY
AS IS. IF TIME ALLOWS LATER IN SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FORECAST
PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO HIT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 18Z-20Z
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PRESENT A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN ADDITION...
THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
HYDROLOGY: MS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 170002
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
402 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL CREATE CONTINUED FLOODING
CONCERNS AND ELEVATED CONCERNS OF MUDSLIDES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A FEW MORE QUICK
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:35 PM PST TUESDAY...LINES OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
STORM. TIMING ON TRACK WITH MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGS THE BULK OF
THE STEADY RAIN THROUGH IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND TAPERS TO SHOWERS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONCERNS HIGH FOR FLOODING AS WELL AS
DEBRIS FLOWS. REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND MUDSLIDES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED GROUND IS RIPE FOR FURTHER ISSUES
WITH RAIN MOVING IN. WIND FORECAST SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN LOW
ELEVATION URBAN AREAS...40 ON THE COAST...AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS THIS STRONG WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE A CONCERN
BUT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND THERE WILL BE DOWNED TREES. THE PEAK
WIND PERIOD WILL ONLY BE A 6 HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED MENTION OF ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE AREA GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IN LIGHTNING SHOWING
NUMEROUS STRIKES OFF THE COAST.

WILL GO BACK TO A SCATTERED SHOWER SITUATION OVERNIGHT AND WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH EVEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FLOODING CONCERNS
REMAIN HIGH FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS PAINTING THEM AS WEAKER AND
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY REMAIN PRIMARILY OFF THE COAST. A
RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND GIVES A GOOD CHANCE AT A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONTINUING TO THEN SEE A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A SHARP DRYING AND
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO HIT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 18Z-20Z
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PRESENT A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN ADDITION...
THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 170002
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
402 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL CREATE CONTINUED FLOODING
CONCERNS AND ELEVATED CONCERNS OF MUDSLIDES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A FEW MORE QUICK
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:35 PM PST TUESDAY...LINES OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
STORM. TIMING ON TRACK WITH MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGS THE BULK OF
THE STEADY RAIN THROUGH IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND TAPERS TO SHOWERS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONCERNS HIGH FOR FLOODING AS WELL AS
DEBRIS FLOWS. REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND MUDSLIDES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED GROUND IS RIPE FOR FURTHER ISSUES
WITH RAIN MOVING IN. WIND FORECAST SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN LOW
ELEVATION URBAN AREAS...40 ON THE COAST...AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS THIS STRONG WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE A CONCERN
BUT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND THERE WILL BE DOWNED TREES. THE PEAK
WIND PERIOD WILL ONLY BE A 6 HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED MENTION OF ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE AREA GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IN LIGHTNING SHOWING
NUMEROUS STRIKES OFF THE COAST.

WILL GO BACK TO A SCATTERED SHOWER SITUATION OVERNIGHT AND WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH EVEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FLOODING CONCERNS
REMAIN HIGH FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS PAINTING THEM AS WEAKER AND
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY REMAIN PRIMARILY OFF THE COAST. A
RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND GIVES A GOOD CHANCE AT A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONTINUING TO THEN SEE A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A SHARP DRYING AND
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS...THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO HIT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 18Z-20Z
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PRESENT A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN ADDITION...
THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 162245
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
245 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL CREATE CONTINUED FLOODING
CONCERNS AND ELEVATED CONCERNS OF MUDSLIDES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A FEW MORE QUICK
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:35 PM PST TUESDAY...LINES OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
STORM. TIMING ON TRACK WITH MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGS THE BULK OF
THE STEADY RAIN THROUGH IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND TAPERS TO SHOWERS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONCERNS HIGH FOR FLOODING AS WELL AS
DEBRIS FLOWS. REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND MUDSLIDES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED GROUND IS RIPE FOR FURTHER ISSUES
WITH RAIN MOVING IN. WIND FORECAST SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN LOW
ELEVATION URBAN AREAS...40 ON THE COAST...AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS THIS STRONG WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE A CONCERN
BUT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND THERE WILL BE DOWNED TREES. THE PEAK
WIND PERIOD WILL ONLY BE A 6 HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED MENTION OF ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE AREA GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IN LIGHTNING SHOWING
NUMEROUS STRIKES OFF THE COAST.

WILL GO BACK TO A SCATTERED SHOWER SITUATION OVERNIGHT AND WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH EVEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FLOODING CONCERNS
REMAIN HIGH FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS PAINTING THEM AS WEAKER AND
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY REMAIN PRIMARILY OFF THE COAST. A
RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND GIVES A GOOD CHANCE AT A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONTINUING TO THEN SEE A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A SHARP DRYING AND
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PST TUESDAY... LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTH THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY OFFSHORE... ARE PRECEDING AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN. VFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED... HOWEVER BRIEF IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH +RA
ACCOMPANYING FROPA. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF FROPA. WINDS VEER FROM
S-SE TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER FROPA. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER FROPA... SO HAVE LENGTHENED
PERIOD OF -SHRA/VCSH OVER 12Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VCSH WITH CIGS AOA 3K FT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT KSFO RIGHT AROUND 20Z
WITH RA TO POSS +RA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY OFFSHORE... WITH
VCSH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT/-RA BEGIN TO
IMPACT MONTEREY CLOSER TO 22-23Z HOUR WITH RA/+RA POSBL AFTER 00Z.
SAME AS OTHER TERMINALS...WET WITH GUSTY SE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PRESENT A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN ADDITION...
THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 162245
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
245 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL CREATE CONTINUED FLOODING
CONCERNS AND ELEVATED CONCERNS OF MUDSLIDES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A FEW MORE QUICK
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:35 PM PST TUESDAY...LINES OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
STORM. TIMING ON TRACK WITH MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGS THE BULK OF
THE STEADY RAIN THROUGH IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND TAPERS TO SHOWERS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONCERNS HIGH FOR FLOODING AS WELL AS
DEBRIS FLOWS. REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND MUDSLIDES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED GROUND IS RIPE FOR FURTHER ISSUES
WITH RAIN MOVING IN. WIND FORECAST SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN LOW
ELEVATION URBAN AREAS...40 ON THE COAST...AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS THIS STRONG WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE A CONCERN
BUT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND THERE WILL BE DOWNED TREES. THE PEAK
WIND PERIOD WILL ONLY BE A 6 HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED MENTION OF ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE AREA GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IN LIGHTNING SHOWING
NUMEROUS STRIKES OFF THE COAST.

WILL GO BACK TO A SCATTERED SHOWER SITUATION OVERNIGHT AND WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH EVEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FLOODING CONCERNS
REMAIN HIGH FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS PAINTING THEM AS WEAKER AND
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY REMAIN PRIMARILY OFF THE COAST. A
RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND GIVES A GOOD CHANCE AT A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONTINUING TO THEN SEE A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A SHARP DRYING AND
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PST TUESDAY... LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTH THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY OFFSHORE... ARE PRECEDING AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN. VFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED... HOWEVER BRIEF IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH +RA
ACCOMPANYING FROPA. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF FROPA. WINDS VEER FROM
S-SE TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER FROPA. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER FROPA... SO HAVE LENGTHENED
PERIOD OF -SHRA/VCSH OVER 12Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VCSH WITH CIGS AOA 3K FT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT KSFO RIGHT AROUND 20Z
WITH RA TO POSS +RA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY OFFSHORE... WITH
VCSH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT/-RA BEGIN TO
IMPACT MONTEREY CLOSER TO 22-23Z HOUR WITH RA/+RA POSBL AFTER 00Z.
SAME AS OTHER TERMINALS...WET WITH GUSTY SE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PRESENT A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN ADDITION...
THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 161815
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1015 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A LULL IN RAINFALL THURSDAY...A WEAKER SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW FAIRLY STRONG CELLS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN MARIN COUNTY HAVE PICKED
UP MORE THAN 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A FEW EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN PLUS POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SNOW LEVEL HAS DROPPED TO
UNDER 5500 FEET SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OUR HIGHEST PEAKS
COULD EVEN GET A SMALL DUSTING OF SNOW.

SHOWERS WILL SWITCH BACK TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AS A SURFACE LOW 500
MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE CA/OREGON
COASTAL BORDER TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES .8 TO 1 INCH OF PW POINTED RIGHT AT THE COAST
WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS STORMS
THIS ONE IS SIMILAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE ONE WE HAD
YESTERDAY AND QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE ONE LAST THURSDAY. WIND WILL
ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO ACV INCREASES TO OVER 8 MB. RAIN WILL
SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE .5 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOST URBAN
SPOTS IN THE .75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. DAY CREW WILL NEED TO KEEP A
VERY CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THIS IS THE THIRD WET SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA IN JUST 6 DAYS. WOULD DEFINITE EXPECT SOME MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS
PLUS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES IF IT COMES ACROSS AS FORECAST.
AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR IS A CLOSE CALL ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
OF SF BAY DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH COVERAGE
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE DAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE AREA A DAY TO DRY OUT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD BE QUITE CHILLY IF WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES.

A FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
PATH BRINGS IT FATHER TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE RECENT ONES.
LIGHT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS.

A RIDGE BUILDS BACK NEAR THE COAST WITH THE STORM TRACK PUSHED UP
TO THE PACNW/CANADIAN AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. RIGHT NOW CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY BOTH
LOOK DRY ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PST TUESDAY... LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTH THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY OFFSHORE... ARE PRECEDING AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN. VFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED... HOWEVER BRIEF IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH +RA
ACCOMPANYING FROPA. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF FROPA. WINDS VEER FROM
S-SE TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER FROPA. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER FROPA... SO HAVE LENGTHENED
PERIOD OF -SHRA/VCSH OVER 12Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VCSH WITH CIGS AOA 3K FT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT KSFO RIGHT AROUND 20Z
WITH RA TO POSS +RA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY OFFSHORE... WITH
VCSH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT/-RA BEGIN TO
IMPACT MONTEREY CLOSER TO 22-23Z HOUR WITH RA/+RA POSBL AFTER 00Z.
SAME AS OTHER TERMINALS...WET WITH GUSTY SE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:54 AM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PRESENT A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN ADDITION...
THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 161815
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1015 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A LULL IN RAINFALL THURSDAY...A WEAKER SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW FAIRLY STRONG CELLS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN MARIN COUNTY HAVE PICKED
UP MORE THAN 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A FEW EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN PLUS POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SNOW LEVEL HAS DROPPED TO
UNDER 5500 FEET SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OUR HIGHEST PEAKS
COULD EVEN GET A SMALL DUSTING OF SNOW.

SHOWERS WILL SWITCH BACK TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AS A SURFACE LOW 500
MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE CA/OREGON
COASTAL BORDER TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES .8 TO 1 INCH OF PW POINTED RIGHT AT THE COAST
WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS STORMS
THIS ONE IS SIMILAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE ONE WE HAD
YESTERDAY AND QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE ONE LAST THURSDAY. WIND WILL
ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO ACV INCREASES TO OVER 8 MB. RAIN WILL
SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE .5 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOST URBAN
SPOTS IN THE .75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. DAY CREW WILL NEED TO KEEP A
VERY CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THIS IS THE THIRD WET SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA IN JUST 6 DAYS. WOULD DEFINITE EXPECT SOME MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS
PLUS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES IF IT COMES ACROSS AS FORECAST.
AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR IS A CLOSE CALL ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
OF SF BAY DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH COVERAGE
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE DAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE AREA A DAY TO DRY OUT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD BE QUITE CHILLY IF WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES.

A FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
PATH BRINGS IT FATHER TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE RECENT ONES.
LIGHT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS.

A RIDGE BUILDS BACK NEAR THE COAST WITH THE STORM TRACK PUSHED UP
TO THE PACNW/CANADIAN AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. RIGHT NOW CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY BOTH
LOOK DRY ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PST TUESDAY... LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTH THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY OFFSHORE... ARE PRECEDING AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN. VFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED... HOWEVER BRIEF IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH +RA
ACCOMPANYING FROPA. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF FROPA. WINDS VEER FROM
S-SE TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER FROPA. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER FROPA... SO HAVE LENGTHENED
PERIOD OF -SHRA/VCSH OVER 12Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VCSH WITH CIGS AOA 3K FT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT KSFO RIGHT AROUND 20Z
WITH RA TO POSS +RA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY OFFSHORE... WITH
VCSH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT/-RA BEGIN TO
IMPACT MONTEREY CLOSER TO 22-23Z HOUR WITH RA/+RA POSBL AFTER 00Z.
SAME AS OTHER TERMINALS...WET WITH GUSTY SE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:54 AM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PRESENT A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN ADDITION...
THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
SWELLS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 161128
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A LULL IN RAINFALL THURSDAY...A WEAKER SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW FAIRLY STRONG CELLS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN MARIN COUNTY HAVE PICKED
UP MORE THAN 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A FEW EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN PLUS POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SNOW LEVEL HAS DROPPED TO
UNDER 5500 FEET SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OUR HIGHEST PEAKS
COULD EVEN GET A SMALL DUSTING OF SNOW.

SHOWERS WILL SWITCH BACK TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AS A SURFACE LOW 500
MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE CA/OREGON
COASTAL BORDER TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES .8 TO 1 INCH OF PW POINTED RIGHT AT THE COAST
WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS STORMS
THIS ONE IS SIMILAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE ONE WE HAD
YESTERDAY AND QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE ONE LAST THURSDAY. WIND WILL
ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO ACV INCREASES TO OVER 8 MB. RAIN WILL
SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE .5 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOST URBAN
SPOTS IN THE .75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. DAY CREW WILL NEED TO KEEP A
VERY CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THIS IS THE THIRD WET SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA IN JUST 6 DAYS. WOULD DEFINITE EXPECT SOME MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS
PLUS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES IF IT COMES ACROSS AS FORECAST.
AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR IS A CLOSE CALL ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
OF SF BAY DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH COVERAGE
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE DAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE AREA A DAY TO DRY OUT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD BE QUITE CHILLY IF WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES.

A FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
PATH BRINGS IT FATHER TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE RECENT ONES.
LIGHT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS.

A RIDGE BUILDS BACK NEAR THE COAST WITH THE STORM TRACK PUSHED UP
TO THE PACNW/CANADIAN AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. RIGHT NOW CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY BOTH
LOOK DRY ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:25 AM PST TUESDAY...HIT OR MISS SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT BAY AREA TERMINALS
AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. S TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS WELL AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE FROPA. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
STEADIER PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGERING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VCSH WITH CIGS AOA 3K FEET SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH
THIS MORNING. FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT KSFO RIGHT AROUND
20Z WITH RA TO POSS +RA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSS.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 02Z WITH POSS WIND SHIFT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS WITH VCSH THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL IMPACT MONTEREY
CLOSER TO 22-23Z HOUR. SAME AS OTHER TERMINALS...WET WITH GUSTY SE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:23 AM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE PASSING FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. SWELLS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 161128
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A LULL IN RAINFALL THURSDAY...A WEAKER SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW FAIRLY STRONG CELLS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN MARIN COUNTY HAVE PICKED
UP MORE THAN 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A FEW EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN PLUS POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SNOW LEVEL HAS DROPPED TO
UNDER 5500 FEET SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OUR HIGHEST PEAKS
COULD EVEN GET A SMALL DUSTING OF SNOW.

SHOWERS WILL SWITCH BACK TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AS A SURFACE LOW 500
MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE CA/OREGON
COASTAL BORDER TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES .8 TO 1 INCH OF PW POINTED RIGHT AT THE COAST
WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS STORMS
THIS ONE IS SIMILAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE ONE WE HAD
YESTERDAY AND QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE ONE LAST THURSDAY. WIND WILL
ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO ACV INCREASES TO OVER 8 MB. RAIN WILL
SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE .5 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOST URBAN
SPOTS IN THE .75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. DAY CREW WILL NEED TO KEEP A
VERY CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THIS IS THE THIRD WET SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA IN JUST 6 DAYS. WOULD DEFINITE EXPECT SOME MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS
PLUS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES IF IT COMES ACROSS AS FORECAST.
AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR IS A CLOSE CALL ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
OF SF BAY DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH COVERAGE
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE DAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE AREA A DAY TO DRY OUT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD BE QUITE CHILLY IF WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES.

A FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
PATH BRINGS IT FATHER TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE RECENT ONES.
LIGHT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS.

A RIDGE BUILDS BACK NEAR THE COAST WITH THE STORM TRACK PUSHED UP
TO THE PACNW/CANADIAN AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. RIGHT NOW CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY BOTH
LOOK DRY ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:25 AM PST TUESDAY...HIT OR MISS SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT BAY AREA TERMINALS
AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. S TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS WELL AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE FROPA. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
STEADIER PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGERING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VCSH WITH CIGS AOA 3K FEET SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH
THIS MORNING. FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT KSFO RIGHT AROUND
20Z WITH RA TO POSS +RA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSS.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 02Z WITH POSS WIND SHIFT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PASSING SHOWERS WITH VCSH THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL IMPACT MONTEREY
CLOSER TO 22-23Z HOUR. SAME AS OTHER TERMINALS...WET WITH GUSTY SE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:23 AM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE PASSING FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. SWELLS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 161059
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
259 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A LULL IN RAINFALL THURSDAY...A WEAKER SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW FAIRLY STRONG CELLS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN MARIN COUNTY HAVE PICKED
UP MORE THAN 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A FEW EXPECTED TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN PLUS POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SNOW LEVEL HAS DROPPED TO
UNDER 5500 FEET SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OUR HIGHEST PEAKS
COULD EVEN GET A SMALL DUSTING OF SNOW.

SHOWERS WILL SWITCH BACK TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AS A SURFACE LOW 500
MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE CA/OREGON
COASTAL BORDER TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES .8 TO 1 INCH OF PW POINTED RIGHT AT THE COAST
WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS STORMS
THIS ONE IS SIMILAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE ONE WE HAD
YESTERDAY AND QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE ONE LAST THURSDAY. WIND WILL
ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO ACV INCREASES TO OVER 8 MB. RAIN WILL
SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE .5 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOST URBAN
SPOTS IN THE .75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. DAY CREW WILL NEED TO KEEP A
VERY CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THIS IS THE THIRD WET SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA IN JUST 6 DAYS. WOULD DEFINITE EXPECT SOME MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS
PLUS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES IF IT COMES ACROSS AS FORECAST.
AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR IS A CLOSE CALL ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
OF SF BAY DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH COVERAGE
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE DAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE AREA A DAY TO DRY OUT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD BE QUITE CHILLY IF WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES.

A FINAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
PATH BRINGS IT FATHER TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE RECENT ONES.
LIGHT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS.

A RIDGE BUILDS BACK NEAR THE COAST WITH THE STORM TRACK PUSHED UP
TO THE PACNW/CANADIAN AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. RIGHT NOW CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY BOTH
LOOK DRY ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST MONDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR. THESE SHOWERS ARE PROPAGATING
INLAND ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANTICIPATE
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ARRIVE IN THE BAY AREA BETWEEN 19-21Z
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY FRONTAL RAINS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN WILL TURN TO VICINITY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIDES
IN ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM. WET RUNWAYS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 20Z
TUESDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN WILL TURN TO VICINITY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIDES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
WET RUNWAYS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ARRIVE AROUND 21Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS MORE STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. SWELLS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






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