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000
FXUS63 KOAX 150306
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1006 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF...EXPECT TO
SEE INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE
00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 0.76 PWAT...HOWEVER KTOP HAD 1.24...SO NOT
QUITE A HIGH AS FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOVING OUT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDC A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTNDG FM SE MN
SWWD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FNT WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT PER
AFTN WV IMAGERY/ MOVS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS CONTS TO BE LIMITED...AND BELOW
SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON THE 12Z RAOBS
FROM KDNR/KLBF. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY
REMOVE THE MUCIN OVERNIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA/ AS THE
SHRTWV NEARS AND THIS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE ON THE 305 K
ISENTROPIC SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY SLOW INCREASE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP BY LATE EVNG. NEAR OR JUST AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT SOME
CAMS DO INDC CI TAKING PLACE...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER
AND WILL CENTER OUR HIGHEST POPS NEAR THIS TIME AND OVER THE ERN
2/3 OF THE FA WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE THE DEEPEST ALLOWING
FOR THE WEAKEST MUCIN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR FA ON MON MRNG
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FA FOR MON/MON NIGHT. THIS
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS CHILLY AS THE ONE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND
FROST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON MON NIGHT...BUT SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO SAT MRNG.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FA ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AGAIN INCREASING. MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS/GEM...INDC
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN BY TUE NIGHT FOR SOME ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
BIT OVERDONE BUT WE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF OUR SCHC POPS
TUE NIGHT LIMITING THEM TO GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I80 AND WAIT
FOR BETTER AGREEMENT TO INCREASE. ANY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WED MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY FRI. WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE MODELS INCDG MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA ON SAT
MRNG WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SAT AND
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 04-07Z. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 11-16Z. COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN...BUT
SHOULD SCATTERED BACK TO VFR BY 15-17Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING EAST...NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS BY 11-12Z...AND
COULD SEE GUSTS BY THEN UP TO 18 KNOTS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 150306
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1006 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF...EXPECT TO
SEE INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE
00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 0.76 PWAT...HOWEVER KTOP HAD 1.24...SO NOT
QUITE A HIGH AS FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOVING OUT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDC A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTNDG FM SE MN
SWWD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FNT WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT PER
AFTN WV IMAGERY/ MOVS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS CONTS TO BE LIMITED...AND BELOW
SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON THE 12Z RAOBS
FROM KDNR/KLBF. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY
REMOVE THE MUCIN OVERNIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA/ AS THE
SHRTWV NEARS AND THIS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE ON THE 305 K
ISENTROPIC SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY SLOW INCREASE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP BY LATE EVNG. NEAR OR JUST AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT SOME
CAMS DO INDC CI TAKING PLACE...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER
AND WILL CENTER OUR HIGHEST POPS NEAR THIS TIME AND OVER THE ERN
2/3 OF THE FA WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE THE DEEPEST ALLOWING
FOR THE WEAKEST MUCIN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR FA ON MON MRNG
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FA FOR MON/MON NIGHT. THIS
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS CHILLY AS THE ONE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND
FROST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON MON NIGHT...BUT SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO SAT MRNG.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FA ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AGAIN INCREASING. MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS/GEM...INDC
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN BY TUE NIGHT FOR SOME ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
BIT OVERDONE BUT WE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF OUR SCHC POPS
TUE NIGHT LIMITING THEM TO GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I80 AND WAIT
FOR BETTER AGREEMENT TO INCREASE. ANY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WED MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY FRI. WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE MODELS INCDG MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA ON SAT
MRNG WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SAT AND
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 04-07Z. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 11-16Z. COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN...BUT
SHOULD SCATTERED BACK TO VFR BY 15-17Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING EAST...NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS BY 11-12Z...AND
COULD SEE GUSTS BY THEN UP TO 18 KNOTS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 142301
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
601 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDC A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTNDG FM SE MN
SWWD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FNT WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT PER
AFTN WV IMAGERY/ MOVS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS CONTS TO BE LIMITED...AND BELOW
SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON THE 12Z RAOBS
FROM KDNR/KLBF. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY
REMOVE THE MUCIN OVERNIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA/ AS THE
SHRTWV NEARS AND THIS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE ON THE 305 K
ISENTROPIC SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY SLOW INCREASE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP BY LATE EVNG. NEAR OR JUST AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT SOME
CAMS DO INDC CI TAKING PLACE...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER
AND WILL CENTER OUR HIGHEST POPS NEAR THIS TIME AND OVER THE ERN
2/3 OF THE FA WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE THE DEEPEST ALLOWING
FOR THE WEAKEST MUCIN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR FA ON MON MRNG
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FA FOR MON/MON NIGHT. THIS
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS CHILLY AS THE ONE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND
FROST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON MON NIGHT...BUT SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO SAT MRNG.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FA ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AGAIN INCREASING. MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS/GEM...INDC
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN BY TUE NIGHT FOR SOME ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
BIT OVERDONE BUT WE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF OUR SCHC POPS
TUE NIGHT LIMITING THEM TO GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I80 AND WAIT
FOR BETTER AGREEMENT TO INCREASE. ANY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WED MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY FRI. WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE MODELS INCDG MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA ON SAT
MRNG WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SAT AND
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 04-07Z. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 11-16Z. COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN...BUT
SHOULD SCATTERED BACK TO VFR BY 15-17Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING EAST...NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS BY 11-12Z...AND
COULD SEE GUSTS BY THEN UP TO 18 KNOTS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 142301
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
601 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDC A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTNDG FM SE MN
SWWD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FNT WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT PER
AFTN WV IMAGERY/ MOVS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS CONTS TO BE LIMITED...AND BELOW
SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON THE 12Z RAOBS
FROM KDNR/KLBF. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY
REMOVE THE MUCIN OVERNIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA/ AS THE
SHRTWV NEARS AND THIS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE ON THE 305 K
ISENTROPIC SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY SLOW INCREASE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP BY LATE EVNG. NEAR OR JUST AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT SOME
CAMS DO INDC CI TAKING PLACE...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER
AND WILL CENTER OUR HIGHEST POPS NEAR THIS TIME AND OVER THE ERN
2/3 OF THE FA WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE THE DEEPEST ALLOWING
FOR THE WEAKEST MUCIN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR FA ON MON MRNG
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FA FOR MON/MON NIGHT. THIS
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS CHILLY AS THE ONE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND
FROST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON MON NIGHT...BUT SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO SAT MRNG.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FA ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AGAIN INCREASING. MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS/GEM...INDC
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN BY TUE NIGHT FOR SOME ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
BIT OVERDONE BUT WE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF OUR SCHC POPS
TUE NIGHT LIMITING THEM TO GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I80 AND WAIT
FOR BETTER AGREEMENT TO INCREASE. ANY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WED MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY FRI. WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE MODELS INCDG MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA ON SAT
MRNG WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SAT AND
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 04-07Z. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 11-16Z. COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN...BUT
SHOULD SCATTERED BACK TO VFR BY 15-17Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING EAST...NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS BY 11-12Z...AND
COULD SEE GUSTS BY THEN UP TO 18 KNOTS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 142017
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDC A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTNDG FM SE MN
SWWD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FNT WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT PER
AFTN WV IMAGERY/ MOVS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS CONTS TO BE LIMITED...AND BELOW
SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON THE 12Z RAOBS
FROM KDNR/KLBF. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY
REMOVE THE MUCIN OVERNIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA/ AS THE
SHRTWV NEARS AND THIS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE ON THE 305 K
ISENTROPIC SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY SLOW INCREASE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP BY LATE EVNG. NEAR OR JUST AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT SOME
CAMS DO INDC CI TAKING PLACE...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER
AND WILL CENTER OUR HIGHEST POPS NEAR THIS TIME AND OVER THE ERN
2/3 OF THE FA WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE THE DEEPEST ALLOWING
FOR THE WEAKEST MUCIN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR FA ON MON MRNG
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FA FOR MON/MON NIGHT. THIS
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS CHILLY AS THE ONE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND
FROST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON MON NIGHT...BUT SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO SAT MRNG.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FA ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AGAIN INCREASING. MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS/GEM...INDC
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN BY TUE NIGHT FOR SOME ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
BIT OVERDONE BUT WE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF OUR SCHC POPS
TUE NIGHT LIMITING THEM TO GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I80 AND WAIT
FOR BETTER AGREEMENT TO INCREASE. ANY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WED MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY FRI. WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE MODELS INCDG MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA ON SAT
MRNG WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SAT AND
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TSTMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KOFK...KEPT MENTION JUST AT KOMA AND KLNK
WHERE CHANCES APPEARED A LITTLE HIGHER. KOFK COULD BE MORE
IMPACTED BY A SECOND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD OUT OF SD
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD SW MN BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SE OF TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES SE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 142017
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDC A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTNDG FM SE MN
SWWD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FNT WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT PER
AFTN WV IMAGERY/ MOVS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS CONTS TO BE LIMITED...AND BELOW
SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON THE 12Z RAOBS
FROM KDNR/KLBF. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY
REMOVE THE MUCIN OVERNIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA/ AS THE
SHRTWV NEARS AND THIS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE ON THE 305 K
ISENTROPIC SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY SLOW INCREASE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP BY LATE EVNG. NEAR OR JUST AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT SOME
CAMS DO INDC CI TAKING PLACE...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER
AND WILL CENTER OUR HIGHEST POPS NEAR THIS TIME AND OVER THE ERN
2/3 OF THE FA WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE THE DEEPEST ALLOWING
FOR THE WEAKEST MUCIN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR FA ON MON MRNG
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FA FOR MON/MON NIGHT. THIS
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS CHILLY AS THE ONE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND
FROST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON MON NIGHT...BUT SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO SAT MRNG.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FA ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AGAIN INCREASING. MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS/GEM...INDC
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN BY TUE NIGHT FOR SOME ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
BIT OVERDONE BUT WE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF OUR SCHC POPS
TUE NIGHT LIMITING THEM TO GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I80 AND WAIT
FOR BETTER AGREEMENT TO INCREASE. ANY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WED MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY FRI. WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE
FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE MODELS INCDG MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA ON SAT
MRNG WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SAT AND
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TSTMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KOFK...KEPT MENTION JUST AT KOMA AND KLNK
WHERE CHANCES APPEARED A LITTLE HIGHER. KOFK COULD BE MORE
IMPACTED BY A SECOND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD OUT OF SD
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD SW MN BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SE OF TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES SE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 141706
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH JET EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA AND ON TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA...AND IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH MAXIMUM
FORCING NEAR 09Z BEFORE WAVE SWINGS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT TONIGHT...BOTH
ELEVATED IN NATURE. ONE AREA IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA UNDER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME NEAR JET
SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM. MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED HERE AS INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. FARTHER
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
RIDING OVER SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS WILL LEAD TO A
MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS HIGH THETA-E AIR IS DRIVEN
NORTH. COOLING ALOFT WHERE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 1500 J/KG
OF ELEVATED CAPE AND NEAR ZERO INHIBITION WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH 40KT
OF SHEAR IN AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINCOLN TO RED OAK LINE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL FADE WITH TIME LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SHORTWAVE BEGINS MOVING EAST. COULD
SEE LINGERING STORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD CLEAR CLOUDS THEN...WITH THERMAL TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
CWA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS GAINING ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
MORNING LOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS START
TO KICK IN AGAIN. HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD 70 TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...BUT A
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
LONGER WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE THE 70S WITH FEW 80S
LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS/PRECIP INVADE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TSTMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KOFK...KEPT MENTION JUST AT KOMA AND KLNK
WHERE CHANCES APPEARED A LITTLE HIGHER. KOFK COULD BE MORE
IMPACTED BY A SECOND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD OUT OF SD
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD SW MN BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SE OF TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES SE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 141706
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH JET EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA AND ON TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA...AND IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH MAXIMUM
FORCING NEAR 09Z BEFORE WAVE SWINGS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT TONIGHT...BOTH
ELEVATED IN NATURE. ONE AREA IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA UNDER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME NEAR JET
SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM. MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED HERE AS INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. FARTHER
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
RIDING OVER SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS WILL LEAD TO A
MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS HIGH THETA-E AIR IS DRIVEN
NORTH. COOLING ALOFT WHERE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 1500 J/KG
OF ELEVATED CAPE AND NEAR ZERO INHIBITION WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH 40KT
OF SHEAR IN AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINCOLN TO RED OAK LINE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL FADE WITH TIME LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SHORTWAVE BEGINS MOVING EAST. COULD
SEE LINGERING STORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD CLEAR CLOUDS THEN...WITH THERMAL TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
CWA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS GAINING ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
MORNING LOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS START
TO KICK IN AGAIN. HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD 70 TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...BUT A
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
LONGER WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE THE 70S WITH FEW 80S
LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS/PRECIP INVADE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TSTMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KOFK...KEPT MENTION JUST AT KOMA AND KLNK
WHERE CHANCES APPEARED A LITTLE HIGHER. KOFK COULD BE MORE
IMPACTED BY A SECOND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD OUT OF SD
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD SW MN BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SE OF TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES SE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 141138
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH JET EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA AND ON TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA...AND IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH MAXIMUM
FORCING NEAR 09Z BEFORE WAVE SWINGS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT TONIGHT...BOTH
ELEVATED IN NATURE. ONE AREA IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA UNDER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME NEAR JET
SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM. MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED HERE AS INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. FARTHER
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
RIDING OVER SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS WILL LEAD TO A
MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS HIGH THETA-E AIR IS DRIVEN
NORTH. COOLING ALOFT WHERE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 1500 J/KG
OF ELEVATED CAPE AND NEAR ZERO INHIBITION WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH 40KT
OF SHEAR IN AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINCOLN TO RED OAK LINE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL FADE WITH TIME LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SHORTWAVE BEGINS MOVING EAST. COULD
SEE LINGERING STORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD CLEAR CLOUDS THEN...WITH THERMAL TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
CWA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS GAINING ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
MORNING LOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS START
TO KICK IN AGAIN. HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD 70 TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...BUT A
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
LONGER WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE THE 70S WITH FEW 80S
LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS/PRECIP INVADE.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLNK AND KOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF KANSAS.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 141138
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH JET EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA AND ON TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA...AND IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH MAXIMUM
FORCING NEAR 09Z BEFORE WAVE SWINGS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT TONIGHT...BOTH
ELEVATED IN NATURE. ONE AREA IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA UNDER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME NEAR JET
SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM. MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED HERE AS INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. FARTHER
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
RIDING OVER SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS WILL LEAD TO A
MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS HIGH THETA-E AIR IS DRIVEN
NORTH. COOLING ALOFT WHERE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 1500 J/KG
OF ELEVATED CAPE AND NEAR ZERO INHIBITION WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH 40KT
OF SHEAR IN AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINCOLN TO RED OAK LINE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL FADE WITH TIME LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SHORTWAVE BEGINS MOVING EAST. COULD
SEE LINGERING STORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD CLEAR CLOUDS THEN...WITH THERMAL TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
CWA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS GAINING ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
MORNING LOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS START
TO KICK IN AGAIN. HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD 70 TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...BUT A
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
LONGER WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE THE 70S WITH FEW 80S
LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS/PRECIP INVADE.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLNK AND KOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF KANSAS.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 140830
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH JET EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA AND ON TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA...AND IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH MAXIMUM
FORCING NEAR 09Z BEFORE WAVE SWINGS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT TONIGHT...BOTH
ELEVATED IN NATURE. ONE AREA IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA UNDER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME NEAR JET
SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM. MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED HERE AS INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. FARTHER
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
RIDING OVER SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS WILL LEAD TO A
MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS HIGH THETA-E AIR IS DRIVEN
NORTH. COOLING ALOFT WHERE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 1500 J/KG
OF ELEVATED CAPE AND NEAR ZERO INHIBITION WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH 40KT
OF SHEAR IN AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINCOLN TO RED OAK LINE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL FADE WITH TIME LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SHORTWAVE BEGINS MOVING EAST. COULD
SEE LINGERING STORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD CLEAR CLOUDS THEN...WITH THERMAL TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
CWA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS GAINING ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
MORNING LOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS START
TO KICK IN AGAIN. HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD 70 TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...BUT A
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
LONGER WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE THE 70S WITH FEW 80S
LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS/PRECIP INVADE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID CLOUDS 5000-7000 FEET AT
KOMA/KLNK SHOULD MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL
MID CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION BRINGING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY ABOUT 01Z AT
KOFK AND 03-04Z AT KLNK/KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 140502
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1202 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING
EWD AND RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT FOR THE
CWA. THE RETURN FLOW WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUN AND SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY. THE
CURRENT FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NE NEB
ON SUN BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOISTURE JUST
RETURNING TO THE AREA. BY SUN EVENING AS A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD INCREASE AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LATE EVNG. WE WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THRU THE NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. COOL WX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR MON AND WE HAVE LOWERED GOING HIGHS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR ON MON NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE
FA...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE SAW THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUES WE WILL AGAIN SEE
WAA ON TUE NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISO SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND WE WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EVERY DAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS/GEM INDCG A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RA
MOVG THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE EC HAS MORE RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. WILL CONT WITH SOME LO CHC POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID CLOUDS 5000-7000 FEET AT
KOMA/KLNK SHOULD MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL
MID CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION BRINGING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY ABOUT 01Z AT
KOFK AND 03-04Z AT KLNK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 140502
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1202 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING
EWD AND RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT FOR THE
CWA. THE RETURN FLOW WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUN AND SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY. THE
CURRENT FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NE NEB
ON SUN BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOISTURE JUST
RETURNING TO THE AREA. BY SUN EVENING AS A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD INCREASE AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LATE EVNG. WE WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THRU THE NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. COOL WX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR MON AND WE HAVE LOWERED GOING HIGHS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR ON MON NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE
FA...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE SAW THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUES WE WILL AGAIN SEE
WAA ON TUE NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISO SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND WE WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EVERY DAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS/GEM INDCG A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RA
MOVG THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE EC HAS MORE RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. WILL CONT WITH SOME LO CHC POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID CLOUDS 5000-7000 FEET AT
KOMA/KLNK SHOULD MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL
MID CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION BRINGING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY ABOUT 01Z AT
KOFK AND 03-04Z AT KLNK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 132247
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
547 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING
EWD AND RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT FOR THE
CWA. THE RETURN FLOW WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUN AND SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY. THE
CURRENT FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NE NEB
ON SUN BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOISTURE JUST
RETURNING TO THE AREA. BY SUN EVENING AS A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD INCREASE AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LATE EVNG. WE WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THRU THE NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. COOL WX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR MON AND WE HAVE LOWERED GOING HIGHS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR ON MON NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE
FA...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE SAW THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUES WE WILL AGAIN SEE
WAA ON TUE NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISO SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND WE WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EVERY DAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS/GEM INDCG A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RA
MOVG THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE EC HAS MORE RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. WILL CONT WITH SOME LO CHC POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME MID CLOUDS
AROUND 5000-6000 FEET MOVING THROUGH IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO.
AND COULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FEET TOMORROW.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 132247
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
547 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING
EWD AND RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT FOR THE
CWA. THE RETURN FLOW WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUN AND SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY. THE
CURRENT FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NE NEB
ON SUN BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOISTURE JUST
RETURNING TO THE AREA. BY SUN EVENING AS A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD INCREASE AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LATE EVNG. WE WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THRU THE NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. COOL WX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR MON AND WE HAVE LOWERED GOING HIGHS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR ON MON NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE
FA...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE SAW THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUES WE WILL AGAIN SEE
WAA ON TUE NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISO SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND WE WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EVERY DAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS/GEM INDCG A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RA
MOVG THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE EC HAS MORE RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. WILL CONT WITH SOME LO CHC POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME MID CLOUDS
AROUND 5000-6000 FEET MOVING THROUGH IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO.
AND COULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FEET TOMORROW.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 132007
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING
EWD AND RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT FOR THE
CWA. THE RETURN FLOW WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUN AND SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY. THE
CURRENT FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NE NEB
ON SUN BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOISTURE JUST
RETURNING TO THE AREA. BY SUN EVENING AS A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD INCREASE AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LATE EVNG. WE WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THRU THE NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. COOL WX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR MON AND WE HAVE LOWERED GOING HIGHS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR ON MON NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE
FA...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE SAW THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUES WE WILL AGAIN SEE
WAA ON TUE NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISO SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND WE WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EVERY DAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS/GEM INDCG A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RA
MOVG THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE EC HAS MORE RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. WILL CONT WITH SOME LO CHC POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT TO
BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THESE SHOULD
DISIPATE THIS EVENING. BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME C18Z SUNDAY AT KOFK AND
LOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE MORE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT IN THE 400O TO 8000 FOOT AGL
LAYER. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FOG DOES NOT SEEM PROBABLE LATER
TONIGHT...SO LEFT THAT OUT OF TAFS. TSTM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 132007
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING
EWD AND RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT FOR THE
CWA. THE RETURN FLOW WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUN AND SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY. THE
CURRENT FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NE NEB
ON SUN BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOISTURE JUST
RETURNING TO THE AREA. BY SUN EVENING AS A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD INCREASE AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LATE EVNG. WE WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THRU THE NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. COOL WX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR MON AND WE HAVE LOWERED GOING HIGHS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR ON MON NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE
FA...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE SAW THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUES WE WILL AGAIN SEE
WAA ON TUE NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISO SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND WE WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EVERY DAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS/GEM INDCG A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RA
MOVG THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE EC HAS MORE RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. WILL CONT WITH SOME LO CHC POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT TO
BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THESE SHOULD
DISIPATE THIS EVENING. BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME C18Z SUNDAY AT KOFK AND
LOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE MORE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT IN THE 400O TO 8000 FOOT AGL
LAYER. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FOG DOES NOT SEEM PROBABLE LATER
TONIGHT...SO LEFT THAT OUT OF TAFS. TSTM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 131716
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THEN WE SHOULD
HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. PRODUCTS WILL ALL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
DUE TO EXPIRATION OF FROST ADVISORY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM AROUND 60
TO THE MID 60S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.18Z SUNDAY AT KOFK AND


AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL
MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH
DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT TO
BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THESE SHOULD
DISIPATE THIS EVENING. BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME C18Z SUNDAY AT KOFK AND
LOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE MORE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT IN THE 400O TO 8000 FOOT AGL
LAYER. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FOG DOES NOT SEEM PROBABLE LATER
TONIGHT...SO LEFT THAT OUT OF TAFS. TSTM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 131716
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THEN WE SHOULD
HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. PRODUCTS WILL ALL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
DUE TO EXPIRATION OF FROST ADVISORY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM AROUND 60
TO THE MID 60S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.18Z SUNDAY AT KOFK AND


AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL
MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH
DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT TO
BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THESE SHOULD
DISIPATE THIS EVENING. BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME C18Z SUNDAY AT KOFK AND
LOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE MORE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT IN THE 400O TO 8000 FOOT AGL
LAYER. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FOG DOES NOT SEEM PROBABLE LATER
TONIGHT...SO LEFT THAT OUT OF TAFS. TSTM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 131407 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
907 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THEN WE SHOULD
HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. PRODUCTS WILL ALL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
DUE TO EXPIRATION OF FROST ADVISORY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM AROUND 60
TO THE MID 60S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL
MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH
DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER HAS NOT MOVED OVER THE TAF
SITES. WILL KEEP A SHORT TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS IN
CASE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THIS AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE A SCATTERED CU DECK WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 131407 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
907 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THEN WE SHOULD
HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. PRODUCTS WILL ALL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
DUE TO EXPIRATION OF FROST ADVISORY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM AROUND 60
TO THE MID 60S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL
MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH
DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER HAS NOT MOVED OVER THE TAF
SITES. WILL KEEP A SHORT TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS IN
CASE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THIS AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE A SCATTERED CU DECK WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 131123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL
MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH
DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER HAS NOT MOVED OVER THE TAF
SITES. WILL KEEP A SHORT TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS IN
CASE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THIS AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE A SCATTERED CU DECK WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 131123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL
MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH
DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER HAS NOT MOVED OVER THE TAF
SITES. WILL KEEP A SHORT TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS IN
CASE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THIS AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE A SCATTERED CU DECK WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 130831
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL
MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH
DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG 09-13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AT 12-16 KNOTS BY 16Z...COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20-22 KNOTS AT
KLNK/KOFK THAT WOULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THEN WINDS BECOME
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 00Z AND BEYOND.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 130831
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL
MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH
DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG 09-13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AT 12-16 KNOTS BY 16Z...COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20-22 KNOTS AT
KLNK/KOFK THAT WOULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THEN WINDS BECOME
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 00Z AND BEYOND.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 130435
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

OPTED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY FOR JUST A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR 36. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. IT MAY BE VERY THIN GROUND FOG...AND MAYBE
MORE STEAM FOG NEAR THE RIVERS AND LAKES. MAY HAVE TO ADD TO THE
FORECAST IF IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME. FOG HAD ALREADY
DEVELOPED AT CLARINDA IOWA AND MILLARD...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
SUGGESTS IT COULD EXPAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHERE
WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

THE MAIN CONCERN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTS TO BE WITH THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE RECORDS LOWS...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING...WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE SFC HIGH CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT WE ARE
IN FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT YET OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. GOING
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
THERE...BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVRY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW ABOUT 36 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO KICK ON ON SAT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE MIXING TO 850
MB. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT WILL START TO WORK INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY ON SUN.
ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER POPS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUN
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS...AND AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO INCREASES LATE ON SUN AFTN...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WORKS THRU SD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA OR TWO. THIS CHANCE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT
AND WE WILL HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO MOV IN FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS/LOWS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY AND A BIT
WARMER AT THE END. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME CHC FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG 09-13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AT 12-16 KNOTS BY 16Z...COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20-22 KNOTS AT
KLNK/KOFK THAT WOULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THEN WINDS BECOME
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 00Z AND BEYOND.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 130435
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

OPTED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY FOR JUST A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR 36. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. IT MAY BE VERY THIN GROUND FOG...AND MAYBE
MORE STEAM FOG NEAR THE RIVERS AND LAKES. MAY HAVE TO ADD TO THE
FORECAST IF IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME. FOG HAD ALREADY
DEVELOPED AT CLARINDA IOWA AND MILLARD...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
SUGGESTS IT COULD EXPAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHERE
WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

THE MAIN CONCERN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTS TO BE WITH THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE RECORDS LOWS...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING...WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE SFC HIGH CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT WE ARE
IN FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT YET OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. GOING
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
THERE...BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVRY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW ABOUT 36 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO KICK ON ON SAT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE MIXING TO 850
MB. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT WILL START TO WORK INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY ON SUN.
ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER POPS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUN
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS...AND AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO INCREASES LATE ON SUN AFTN...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WORKS THRU SD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA OR TWO. THIS CHANCE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT
AND WE WILL HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO MOV IN FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS/LOWS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY AND A BIT
WARMER AT THE END. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME CHC FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG 09-13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AT 12-16 KNOTS BY 16Z...COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20-22 KNOTS AT
KLNK/KOFK THAT WOULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THEN WINDS BECOME
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 00Z AND BEYOND.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 130229
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
929 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

OPTED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY FOR JUST A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR 36. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. IT MAY BE VERY THIN GROUND FOG...AND MAYBE
MORE STEAM FOG NEAR THE RIVERS AND LAKES. MAY HAVE TO ADD TO THE
FORECAST IF IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME. FOG HAD ALREADY
DEVELOPED AT CLARINDA IOWA AND MILLARD...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
SUGGESTS IT COULD EXPAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHERE
WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

THE MAIN CONCERN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTS TO BE WITH THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE RECORDS LOWS...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING...WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE SFC HIGH CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT WE ARE
IN FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT YET OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. GOING
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
THERE...BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVRY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW ABOUT 36 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO KICK ON ON SAT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE MIXING TO 850
MB. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT WILL START TO WORK INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY ON SUN.
ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER POPS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUN
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS...AND AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO INCREASES LATE ON SUN AFTN...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WORKS THRU SD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA OR TWO. THIS CHANCE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT
AND WE WILL HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO MOV IN FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS/LOWS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY AND A BIT
WARMER AT THE END. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME CHC FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY 01-03Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES 10-13Z. COULD BE PATCHY FROST AT KLNK/KOFK LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE
TO 13 TO 15 KNOTS BY 15-16Z...AND COULD SEE GUSTS AT KOFK UP TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOP SATURDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 130229
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
929 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

OPTED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY FOR JUST A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR 36. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. IT MAY BE VERY THIN GROUND FOG...AND MAYBE
MORE STEAM FOG NEAR THE RIVERS AND LAKES. MAY HAVE TO ADD TO THE
FORECAST IF IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME. FOG HAD ALREADY
DEVELOPED AT CLARINDA IOWA AND MILLARD...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
SUGGESTS IT COULD EXPAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHERE
WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

THE MAIN CONCERN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTS TO BE WITH THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE RECORDS LOWS...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING...WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE SFC HIGH CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT WE ARE
IN FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT YET OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. GOING
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
THERE...BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVRY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW ABOUT 36 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO KICK ON ON SAT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE MIXING TO 850
MB. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT WILL START TO WORK INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY ON SUN.
ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER POPS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUN
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS...AND AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO INCREASES LATE ON SUN AFTN...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WORKS THRU SD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA OR TWO. THIS CHANCE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT
AND WE WILL HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO MOV IN FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS/LOWS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY AND A BIT
WARMER AT THE END. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME CHC FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY 01-03Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES 10-13Z. COULD BE PATCHY FROST AT KLNK/KOFK LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE
TO 13 TO 15 KNOTS BY 15-16Z...AND COULD SEE GUSTS AT KOFK UP TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOP SATURDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 122228
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

THE MAIN CONCERN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTS TO BE WITH THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE RECORDS LOWS...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING...WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE SFC HIGH CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT WE ARE
IN FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT YET OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. GOING
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
THERE...BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVRY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW ABOUT 36 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO KICK ON ON SAT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE MIXING TO 850
MB. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT WILL START TO WORK INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY ON SUN.
ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER POPS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUN
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS...AND AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO INCREASES LATE ON SUN AFTN...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WORKS THRU SD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA OR TWO. THIS CHANCE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT
AND WE WILL HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO MOV IN FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS/LOWS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY AND A BIT
WARMER AT THE END. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME CHC FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY 01-03Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES 10-13Z. COULD BE PATCHY FROST AT KLNK/KOFK LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE
TO 13 TO 15 KNOTS BY 15-16Z...AND COULD SEE GUSTS AT KOFK UP TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 122228
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

THE MAIN CONCERN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTS TO BE WITH THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE RECORDS LOWS...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING...WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE SFC HIGH CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT WE ARE
IN FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT YET OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. GOING
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
THERE...BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVRY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW ABOUT 36 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO KICK ON ON SAT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE MIXING TO 850
MB. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT WILL START TO WORK INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY ON SUN.
ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER POPS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUN
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS...AND AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO INCREASES LATE ON SUN AFTN...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WORKS THRU SD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA OR TWO. THIS CHANCE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT
AND WE WILL HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO MOV IN FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS/LOWS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY AND A BIT
WARMER AT THE END. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME CHC FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY 01-03Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES 10-13Z. COULD BE PATCHY FROST AT KLNK/KOFK LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE
TO 13 TO 15 KNOTS BY 15-16Z...AND COULD SEE GUSTS AT KOFK UP TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 122035
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

THE MAIN CONCERN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTS TO BE WITH THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE RECORDS LOWS...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING...WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE SFC HIGH CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT WE ARE
IN FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT YET OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. GOING
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
THERE...BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVRY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW ABOUT 36 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO KICK ON ON SAT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE MIXING TO 850
MB. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT WILL START TO WORK INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY ON SUN.
ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER POPS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUN
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS...AND AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO INCREASES LATE ON SUN AFTN...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WORKS THRU SD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA OR TWO. THIS CHANCE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT
AND WE WILL HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO MOV IN FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS/LOWS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY AND A BIT
WARMER AT THE END. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME CHC FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISIPATE EARLY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. LATER FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO LOOK AT THE FOG...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE EITHER GROUND
FOG OR STEAM FOG.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 122035
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...

THE MAIN CONCERN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTS TO BE WITH THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE RECORDS LOWS...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING...WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE SFC HIGH CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT WE ARE
IN FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT YET OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. GOING
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
THERE...BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVRY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW ABOUT 36 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO KICK ON ON SAT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE MIXING TO 850
MB. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT WILL START TO WORK INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY ON SUN.
ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER POPS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUN
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS...AND AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO INCREASES LATE ON SUN AFTN...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WORKS THRU SD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA OR TWO. THIS CHANCE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON SUN NIGHT
AND WE WILL HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO MOV IN FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS/LOWS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO WESTERLY AND A BIT
WARMER AT THE END. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME CHC FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISIPATE EARLY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. LATER FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO LOOK AT THE FOG...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE EITHER GROUND
FOG OR STEAM FOG.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 121710
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAIN LIFT WITH SYSTEM HAS ENDED AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DECREASED ABOUT
AS EXPECTED. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE GET A
BIT OF HEATING WITH SOME BREAKS THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS AGAIN HERE SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RAIN TODAY...COLD TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE WARMER BY SUNDAY WITH OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
MONTANA CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND KICKING A SHORTWAVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS THE RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...COVERING MOST OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS OF 3 AM.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE AND DRYING SEEN ON WESTERN
NEBRASKA RADARS SUGGEST MODELS TREND OF MOVING THIS RAIN OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. SOME AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN COULD FALL...BUT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE SHOULD BE THE RULE BEFORE
THINGS WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE
SEEN LATER TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE. THUS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOBE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SWINGS
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DRYING OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO ENSUE THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS
AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT EXPECTED DURATION AND EXTENT OF
FROST WILL PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. RECORD LOWS FOR
SEPTEMBER 13 ARE AS FOLLOWS...OMAHA 35 IN 1974...LINCOLN 34 IN
1890...AND NORFOLK 28 IN 1902.

AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. THEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHARPENING SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA AND ON
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE/TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S BY THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISIPATE EARLY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. LATER FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO LOOK AT THE FOG...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE EITHER GROUND
FOG OR STEAM FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 121710
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAIN LIFT WITH SYSTEM HAS ENDED AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DECREASED ABOUT
AS EXPECTED. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE GET A
BIT OF HEATING WITH SOME BREAKS THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS AGAIN HERE SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RAIN TODAY...COLD TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE WARMER BY SUNDAY WITH OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
MONTANA CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND KICKING A SHORTWAVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS THE RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...COVERING MOST OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS OF 3 AM.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE AND DRYING SEEN ON WESTERN
NEBRASKA RADARS SUGGEST MODELS TREND OF MOVING THIS RAIN OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. SOME AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN COULD FALL...BUT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE SHOULD BE THE RULE BEFORE
THINGS WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE
SEEN LATER TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE. THUS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOBE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SWINGS
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DRYING OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO ENSUE THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS
AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT EXPECTED DURATION AND EXTENT OF
FROST WILL PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. RECORD LOWS FOR
SEPTEMBER 13 ARE AS FOLLOWS...OMAHA 35 IN 1974...LINCOLN 34 IN
1890...AND NORFOLK 28 IN 1902.

AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. THEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHARPENING SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA AND ON
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE/TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S BY THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISIPATE EARLY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. LATER FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO LOOK AT THE FOG...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE EITHER GROUND
FOG OR STEAM FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 121616
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAIN LIFT WITH SYSTEM HAS ENDED AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DECREASED ABOUT
AS EXPECTED. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE GET A
BIT OF HEATING WITH SOME BREAKS THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS AGAIN HERE SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RAIN TODAY...COLD TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE WARMER BY SUNDAY WITH OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
MONTANA CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND KICKING A SHORTWAVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS THE RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...COVERING MOST OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS OF 3 AM.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE AND DRYING SEEN ON WESTERN
NEBRASKA RADARS SUGGEST MODELS TREND OF MOVING THIS RAIN OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. SOME AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN COULD FALL...BUT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE SHOULD BE THE RULE BEFORE
THINGS WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE
SEEN LATER TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE. THUS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOBE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SWINGS
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DRYING OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO ENSUE THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS
AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT EXPECTED DURATION AND EXTENT OF
FROST WILL PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. RECORD LOWS FOR
SEPTEMBER 13 ARE AS FOLLOWS...OMAHA 35 IN 1974...LINCOLN 34 IN
1890...AND NORFOLK 28 IN 1902.

AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. THEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHARPENING SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA AND ON
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE/TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S BY THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 121616
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAIN LIFT WITH SYSTEM HAS ENDED AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DECREASED ABOUT
AS EXPECTED. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE GET A
BIT OF HEATING WITH SOME BREAKS THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS AGAIN HERE SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RAIN TODAY...COLD TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE WARMER BY SUNDAY WITH OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
MONTANA CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND KICKING A SHORTWAVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS THE RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...COVERING MOST OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS OF 3 AM.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE AND DRYING SEEN ON WESTERN
NEBRASKA RADARS SUGGEST MODELS TREND OF MOVING THIS RAIN OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. SOME AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN COULD FALL...BUT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE SHOULD BE THE RULE BEFORE
THINGS WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE
SEEN LATER TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE. THUS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOBE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SWINGS
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DRYING OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO ENSUE THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS
AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT EXPECTED DURATION AND EXTENT OF
FROST WILL PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. RECORD LOWS FOR
SEPTEMBER 13 ARE AS FOLLOWS...OMAHA 35 IN 1974...LINCOLN 34 IN
1890...AND NORFOLK 28 IN 1902.

AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. THEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHARPENING SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA AND ON
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE/TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S BY THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 121111
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RAIN TODAY...COLD TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE WARMER BY SUNDAY WITH OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
MONTANA CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND KICKING A SHORTWAVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS THE RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...COVERING MOST OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS OF 3 AM.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE AND DRYING SEEN ON WESTERN
NEBRASKA RADARS SUGGEST MODELS TREND OF MOVING THIS RAIN OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. SOME AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN COULD FALL...BUT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE SHOULD BE THE RULE BEFORE
THINGS WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE
SEEN LATER TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE. THUS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOBE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SWINGS
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DRYING OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO ENSUE THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS
AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT EXPECTED DURATION AND EXTENT OF
FROST WILL PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. RECORD LOWS FOR
SEPTEMBER 13 ARE AS FOLLOWS...OMAHA 35 IN 1974...LINCOLN 34 IN
1890...AND NORFOLK 28 IN 1902.

AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. THEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHARPENING SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA AND ON
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE/TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S BY THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 121111
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RAIN TODAY...COLD TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE WARMER BY SUNDAY WITH OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
MONTANA CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND KICKING A SHORTWAVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS THE RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...COVERING MOST OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS OF 3 AM.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE AND DRYING SEEN ON WESTERN
NEBRASKA RADARS SUGGEST MODELS TREND OF MOVING THIS RAIN OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. SOME AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN COULD FALL...BUT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE SHOULD BE THE RULE BEFORE
THINGS WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE
SEEN LATER TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE. THUS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOBE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SWINGS
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DRYING OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO ENSUE THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS
AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT EXPECTED DURATION AND EXTENT OF
FROST WILL PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. RECORD LOWS FOR
SEPTEMBER 13 ARE AS FOLLOWS...OMAHA 35 IN 1974...LINCOLN 34 IN
1890...AND NORFOLK 28 IN 1902.

AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. THEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHARPENING SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA AND ON
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE/TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S BY THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 120855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RAIN TODAY...COLD TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE WARMER BY SUNDAY WITH OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
MONTANA CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND KICKING A SHORTWAVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS THE RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...COVERING MOST OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS OF 3 AM.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE AND DRYING SEEN ON WESTERN
NEBRASKA RADARS SUGGEST MODELS TREND OF MOVING THIS RAIN OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. SOME AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN COULD FALL...BUT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE SHOULD BE THE RULE BEFORE
THINGS WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE
SEEN LATER TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE. THUS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOBE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SWINGS
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DRYING OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO ENSUE THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS
AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT EXPECTED DURATION AND EXTENT OF
FROST WILL PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. RECORD LOWS FOR
SEPTEMBER 13 ARE AS FOLLOWS...OMAHA 35 IN 1974...LINCOLN 34 IN
1890...AND NORFOLK 28 IN 1902.

AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. THEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHARPENING SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA AND ON
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE/TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S BY THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE RAIN WHICH HAD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF NERN NEBR AS OF 04Z TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE RAIN
WHICH COULD IMPACT KLNK/KOMA BEFORE STEADIER MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN
SETS IN. RAIN SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP WITH HEATING IN NERN
NEBR...CHANCE AT THIS TIME APPEARED TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN KOFK
TAF. AS SKIES CLEAR FRIDAY EVENING...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT
FOG COULD DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD OR AFTER 13/06Z
SO NO MENTION WAS MADE JUST YET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 120855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RAIN TODAY...COLD TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE WARMER BY SUNDAY WITH OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
MONTANA CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND KICKING A SHORTWAVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS THE RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...COVERING MOST OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS OF 3 AM.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE AND DRYING SEEN ON WESTERN
NEBRASKA RADARS SUGGEST MODELS TREND OF MOVING THIS RAIN OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. SOME AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN COULD FALL...BUT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE SHOULD BE THE RULE BEFORE
THINGS WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE
SEEN LATER TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE. THUS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOBE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SWINGS
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DRYING OF LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO ENSUE THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS
AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
RECORDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. WILL MAINTAIN
THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT EXPECTED DURATION AND EXTENT OF
FROST WILL PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. RECORD LOWS FOR
SEPTEMBER 13 ARE AS FOLLOWS...OMAHA 35 IN 1974...LINCOLN 34 IN
1890...AND NORFOLK 28 IN 1902.

AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. THEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHARPENING SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA AND ON
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE/TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S BY THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE RAIN WHICH HAD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF NERN NEBR AS OF 04Z TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE RAIN
WHICH COULD IMPACT KLNK/KOMA BEFORE STEADIER MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN
SETS IN. RAIN SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP WITH HEATING IN NERN
NEBR...CHANCE AT THIS TIME APPEARED TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN KOFK
TAF. AS SKIES CLEAR FRIDAY EVENING...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT
FOG COULD DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD OR AFTER 13/06Z
SO NO MENTION WAS MADE JUST YET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 120438
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

TIMING OF PCPN AND PCPN AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD (BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT) WILL
PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WELL AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 300 MB CHART FROM 12Z SHOWED A 110 KNOT JET STREAK OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS WAS IN A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDED
FROM ONTARIO CANADA BACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEVADA. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE. MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 700 MB EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS OR
COLDER WERE IN PLACE AT 850 MB FROM MONTANA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO MINNESOTA.

LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DUE TO JET DYNAMICS WITH CORE OF THE POLAR JETSTREAM STAYING TO OUR
NORTH. SOME UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE WILL OCCUR...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION (RIGHT REAR QUADRANT) OF 2 DIFFERENT
300 MB JET SEGMENTS. SECOND ONE SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY
12Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
AT 500 MB WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
IOWA THROUGH FRIDAY. OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN 700 MB AND 400 MB PEAK AT
OVER 12 MICROBARS PER SECOND...IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WHERE THE
ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS IS MAXIMIZED. BUMPED RAIN AMOUNTS UP A BIT
FOR OVERNIGHT AND WENT WITH SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN.

ALLOWED POPS TO DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR NORTHWEST HALF BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT A BIT HIGHER CHANCES GOING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. IN THE AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES
...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD LOWS UP A BIT TONIGHT...BUT WE
SHOULD SEE A RANGE FROM NEAR 40 AT THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE
MID OR UPPER 40S AT THE MISSOURI BORDER. PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE A LOT
OF RECOVERY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GROUND WILL STILL BE WET
AT LEAST EARLY. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. JUST
HOW FAST AN INVERSION CAN SETUP WILL HELP DETERMINE HOW COOL WE
WILL GET. PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG...BUT WE COULD
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 AND MOST SPOTS BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MID 30S IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS. WILL ADD PATCHY FROST BACK IN FOR MOST AREAS...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY. ADDED SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY A
LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD THE
MID AND UPPER 70S LATER IN THIS PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE
A 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UP INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. BY MID WEEK...THE RIDGE
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST TO ALONG ABOUT 110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND
A TROUGH WILL BE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME SMALL TSTM CHANCES SEEMED NECESSARY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME LARGER BY
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE RAIN WHICH HAD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF NERN NEBR AS OF 04Z TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE RAIN
WHICH COULD IMPACT KLNK/KOMA BEFORE STEADIER MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN
SETS IN. RAIN SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP WITH HEATING IN NERN
NEBR...CHANCE AT THIS TIME APPEARED TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN KOFK
TAF. AS SKIES CLEAR FRIDAY EVENING...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT
FOG COULD DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD OR AFTER 13/06Z
SO NO MENTION WAS MADE JUST YET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 120438
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

TIMING OF PCPN AND PCPN AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD (BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT) WILL
PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WELL AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 300 MB CHART FROM 12Z SHOWED A 110 KNOT JET STREAK OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS WAS IN A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDED
FROM ONTARIO CANADA BACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEVADA. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE. MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 700 MB EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS OR
COLDER WERE IN PLACE AT 850 MB FROM MONTANA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO MINNESOTA.

LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DUE TO JET DYNAMICS WITH CORE OF THE POLAR JETSTREAM STAYING TO OUR
NORTH. SOME UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE WILL OCCUR...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION (RIGHT REAR QUADRANT) OF 2 DIFFERENT
300 MB JET SEGMENTS. SECOND ONE SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY
12Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
AT 500 MB WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
IOWA THROUGH FRIDAY. OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN 700 MB AND 400 MB PEAK AT
OVER 12 MICROBARS PER SECOND...IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WHERE THE
ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS IS MAXIMIZED. BUMPED RAIN AMOUNTS UP A BIT
FOR OVERNIGHT AND WENT WITH SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN.

ALLOWED POPS TO DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR NORTHWEST HALF BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT A BIT HIGHER CHANCES GOING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. IN THE AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES
...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD LOWS UP A BIT TONIGHT...BUT WE
SHOULD SEE A RANGE FROM NEAR 40 AT THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE
MID OR UPPER 40S AT THE MISSOURI BORDER. PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE A LOT
OF RECOVERY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GROUND WILL STILL BE WET
AT LEAST EARLY. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. JUST
HOW FAST AN INVERSION CAN SETUP WILL HELP DETERMINE HOW COOL WE
WILL GET. PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG...BUT WE COULD
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 AND MOST SPOTS BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MID 30S IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS. WILL ADD PATCHY FROST BACK IN FOR MOST AREAS...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY. ADDED SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY A
LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD THE
MID AND UPPER 70S LATER IN THIS PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE
A 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UP INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. BY MID WEEK...THE RIDGE
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST TO ALONG ABOUT 110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND
A TROUGH WILL BE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME SMALL TSTM CHANCES SEEMED NECESSARY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME LARGER BY
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE RAIN WHICH HAD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF NERN NEBR AS OF 04Z TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE RAIN
WHICH COULD IMPACT KLNK/KOMA BEFORE STEADIER MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN
SETS IN. RAIN SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP WITH HEATING IN NERN
NEBR...CHANCE AT THIS TIME APPEARED TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN KOFK
TAF. AS SKIES CLEAR FRIDAY EVENING...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT
FOG COULD DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD OR AFTER 13/06Z
SO NO MENTION WAS MADE JUST YET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




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