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000
FXUS63 KOAX 110402
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1002 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

03Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT WHICH HAD REACHED WRN
AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE SURGED SWWD
AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST. 2-3 MB/2-HR PRESSURE
RISES AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER ERN NEB AND WRN IA...AS IS A STEADY SWD
MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS.

BASED ON 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE...WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE
FORECAST IN FAR NERN NEB TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE EARLIER TOMORROW AFTERNOON(THU).
OTHERWISE...NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF THE THESE WAS CURRENTLY SEEN
IN NRN BC AND WILL DIVE SEWD TMRW ALNG THE STG THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STATIC STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AND A WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION DVLPS WITH
SOME -SN BY AFTN OVER THE N STREAKING SEWD INTO WRN IA ON THU EVNG
WITH A HALF INCH OR SO ACCUM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MRNG WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES IN FOR SAT AND COULD SPREAD MORE LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY THE NRN CWA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PREFER THE EC/GEM TO START THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS APPEARS OVER-
DONE WITH FORCING/QFP FOR SUN WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
BE TO OUR N/E. AFTER SUN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
NORTHWEST/WEST AND WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW WARM AND WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS CURRENT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL
MOVE IN THIS EVENING. SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE WITH FOG
LATER TONIGHT...BUT STILL LIKELY 3 MILES OR HIGHER. CEILINGS MAY
RISE A BIT LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR KOFK AND KOMA. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AT THIS TIME.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEAD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 102325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF THE THESE WAS CURRENTLY SEEN
IN NRN BC AND WILL DIVE SEWD TMRW ALNG THE STG THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STATIC STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AND A WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION DVLPS WITH
SOME -SN BY AFTN OVER THE N STREAKING SEWD INTO WRN IA ON THU EVNG
WITH A HALF INCH OR SO ACCUM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MRNG WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES IN FOR SAT AND COULD SPREAD MORE LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY THE NRN CWA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PREFER THE EC/GEM TO START THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS APPEARS OVER-
DONE WITH FORCING/QFP FOR SUN WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
BE TO OUR N/E. AFTER SUN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
NORTHWEST/WEST AND WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW WARM AND WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS CURRENT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL
MOVE IN THIS EVENING. SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE WITH FOG
LATER TONIGHT...BUT STILL LIKELY 3 MILES OR HIGHER. CEILINGS MAY
RISE A BIT LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR KOFK AND KOMA. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 102325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF THE THESE WAS CURRENTLY SEEN
IN NRN BC AND WILL DIVE SEWD TMRW ALNG THE STG THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STATIC STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AND A WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION DVLPS WITH
SOME -SN BY AFTN OVER THE N STREAKING SEWD INTO WRN IA ON THU EVNG
WITH A HALF INCH OR SO ACCUM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MRNG WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES IN FOR SAT AND COULD SPREAD MORE LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY THE NRN CWA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PREFER THE EC/GEM TO START THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS APPEARS OVER-
DONE WITH FORCING/QFP FOR SUN WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
BE TO OUR N/E. AFTER SUN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
NORTHWEST/WEST AND WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW WARM AND WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS CURRENT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL
MOVE IN THIS EVENING. SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE WITH FOG
LATER TONIGHT...BUT STILL LIKELY 3 MILES OR HIGHER. CEILINGS MAY
RISE A BIT LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR KOFK AND KOMA. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 102325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF THE THESE WAS CURRENTLY SEEN
IN NRN BC AND WILL DIVE SEWD TMRW ALNG THE STG THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STATIC STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AND A WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION DVLPS WITH
SOME -SN BY AFTN OVER THE N STREAKING SEWD INTO WRN IA ON THU EVNG
WITH A HALF INCH OR SO ACCUM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MRNG WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES IN FOR SAT AND COULD SPREAD MORE LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY THE NRN CWA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PREFER THE EC/GEM TO START THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS APPEARS OVER-
DONE WITH FORCING/QFP FOR SUN WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
BE TO OUR N/E. AFTER SUN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
NORTHWEST/WEST AND WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW WARM AND WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS CURRENT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL
MOVE IN THIS EVENING. SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE WITH FOG
LATER TONIGHT...BUT STILL LIKELY 3 MILES OR HIGHER. CEILINGS MAY
RISE A BIT LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR KOFK AND KOMA. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 102122
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF THE THESE WAS CURRENTLY SEEN
IN NRN BC AND WILL DIVE SEWD TMRW ALNG THE STG THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STATIC STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AND A WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION DVLPS WITH
SOME -SN BY AFTN OVER THE N STREAKING SEWD INTO WRN IA ON THU EVNG
WITH A HALF INCH OR SO ACCUM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MRNG WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES IN FOR SAT AND COULD SPREAD MORE LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY THE NRN CWA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PREFER THE EC/GEM TO START THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS APPEARS OVER-
DONE WITH FORCING/QFP FOR SUN WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
BE TO OUR N/E. AFTER SUN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
NORTHWEST/WEST AND WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW WARM AND WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST...SHOULD PULL BACK MVFR
CIGS IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES/SATURATION TEND TO KEEP THE FLURRIES EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 101816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SHORT TERM TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
PUSHING EAST. 18Z SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TRACKING SOUTHEAST WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL TRY TO RETURN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA
REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 08Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WORKING SOUTHEAST ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IOWA NEBRASKA
BORDER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW THEN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST...SHOULD PULL BACK MVFR
CIGS IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES/SATURATION TEND TO KEEP THE FLURRIES EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 101816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SHORT TERM TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
PUSHING EAST. 18Z SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TRACKING SOUTHEAST WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL TRY TO RETURN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA
REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 08Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WORKING SOUTHEAST ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IOWA NEBRASKA
BORDER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW THEN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST...SHOULD PULL BACK MVFR
CIGS IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES/SATURATION TEND TO KEEP THE FLURRIES EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 101816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SHORT TERM TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
PUSHING EAST. 18Z SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TRACKING SOUTHEAST WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL TRY TO RETURN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST ONCE
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA
REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 08Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WORKING SOUTHEAST ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IOWA NEBRASKA
BORDER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW THEN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST...SHOULD PULL BACK MVFR
CIGS IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES/SATURATION TEND TO KEEP THE FLURRIES EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 101750
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA
REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 08Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WORKING SOUTHEAST ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IOWA NEBRASKA
BORDER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW THEN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST...SHOULD PULL BACK MVFR
CIGS IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES/SATURATION TEND TO KEEP THE FLURRIES EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 101750
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA
REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 08Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WORKING SOUTHEAST ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IOWA NEBRASKA
BORDER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW THEN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST...SHOULD PULL BACK MVFR
CIGS IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES/SATURATION TEND TO KEEP THE FLURRIES EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 101750
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA
REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 08Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WORKING SOUTHEAST ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IOWA NEBRASKA
BORDER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW THEN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST...SHOULD PULL BACK MVFR
CIGS IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES/SATURATION TEND TO KEEP THE FLURRIES EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 101110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA
REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 08Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WORKING SOUTHEAST ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IOWA NEBRASKA
BORDER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW THEN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A FEW FLURRIES WILL AFFECT KOMA THROUGH ABOUT 16Z THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT COULD SEE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED
DOWNWARD SATURATION. OTHERWISE...VFR ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH EXPECTING
MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY 22-00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 100850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA
REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 08Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WORKING SOUTHEAST ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IOWA NEBRASKA
BORDER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW THEN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD
AIR EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL PERSIST AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES EASTERN NEBRASKA. BY 14Z...MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KOMA WITH LIGHT SNOW OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY...NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10KT WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 100516
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A
DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK
WITHIN THE TROUGH. A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 20S IN OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER 40S IN OUR
SNOW FREE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING
A NARROW BAND OF PCPN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING ON THIS HAS SLOWED SEVERAL
HOURS SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE START TIME OF THE PCPN IN OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR EAST WITH ONLY OUR EASTERN FRINGE OF IOWA COUNTIES SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND SKIRT TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PCPN IN WAA REGIME AROUND
THIS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN CHANCES
REMAINING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PROFILES SHOW A
POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN TYPES BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHER
THAN THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
CONSENSUS OF A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL PERSIST AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES EASTERN NEBRASKA. BY 14Z...MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KOMA WITH LIGHT SNOW OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY...NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10KT WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 092330
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A
DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK
WITHIN THE TROUGH. A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 20S IN OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER 40S IN OUR
SNOW FREE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING
A NARROW BAND OF PCPN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING ON THIS HAS SLOWED SEVERAL
HOURS SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE START TIME OF THE PCPN IN OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR EAST WITH ONLY OUR EASTERN FRINGE OF IOWA COUNTIES SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND SKIRT TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PCPN IN WAA REGIME AROUND
THIS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN CHANCES
REMAINING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PROFILES SHOW A
POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN TYPES BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHER
THAN THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
CONSENSUS OF A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING NORTH TO WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. MVF CIGS NEAR FL025 ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z...REACHING ALL TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WILL EAST OF TAF SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CIGS TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 18Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 092330
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A
DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK
WITHIN THE TROUGH. A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 20S IN OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER 40S IN OUR
SNOW FREE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING
A NARROW BAND OF PCPN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING ON THIS HAS SLOWED SEVERAL
HOURS SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE START TIME OF THE PCPN IN OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR EAST WITH ONLY OUR EASTERN FRINGE OF IOWA COUNTIES SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND SKIRT TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PCPN IN WAA REGIME AROUND
THIS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN CHANCES
REMAINING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PROFILES SHOW A
POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN TYPES BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHER
THAN THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
CONSENSUS OF A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING NORTH TO WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. MVF CIGS NEAR FL025 ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z...REACHING ALL TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WILL EAST OF TAF SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CIGS TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 18Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 092330
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A
DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK
WITHIN THE TROUGH. A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 20S IN OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER 40S IN OUR
SNOW FREE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING
A NARROW BAND OF PCPN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING ON THIS HAS SLOWED SEVERAL
HOURS SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE START TIME OF THE PCPN IN OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR EAST WITH ONLY OUR EASTERN FRINGE OF IOWA COUNTIES SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND SKIRT TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PCPN IN WAA REGIME AROUND
THIS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN CHANCES
REMAINING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PROFILES SHOW A
POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN TYPES BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHER
THAN THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
CONSENSUS OF A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING NORTH TO WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. MVF CIGS NEAR FL025 ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z...REACHING ALL TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WILL EAST OF TAF SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CIGS TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 18Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 092133
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A
DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK
WITHIN THE TROUGH. A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 20S IN OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER 40S IN OUR
SNOW FREE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING
A NARROW BAND OF PCPN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING ON THIS HAS SLOWED SEVERAL
HOURS SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE START TIME OF THE PCPN IN OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR EAST WITH ONLY OUR EASTERN FRINGE OF IOWA COUNTIES SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND SKIRT TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PCPN IN WAA REGIME AROUND
THIS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN CHANCES
REMAINING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PROFILES SHOW A
POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN TYPES BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHER
THAN THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
CONSENSUS OF A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT INITIALLY MID-LVL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT ALL 3 SITES BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
-SN AT KOFK/KOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTN AND THEN BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
WED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 092133
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A
DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK
WITHIN THE TROUGH. A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 20S IN OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER 40S IN OUR
SNOW FREE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING
A NARROW BAND OF PCPN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING ON THIS HAS SLOWED SEVERAL
HOURS SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE START TIME OF THE PCPN IN OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR EAST WITH ONLY OUR EASTERN FRINGE OF IOWA COUNTIES SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND SKIRT TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PCPN IN WAA REGIME AROUND
THIS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN CHANCES
REMAINING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PROFILES SHOW A
POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN TYPES BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHER
THAN THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
CONSENSUS OF A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT INITIALLY MID-LVL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT ALL 3 SITES BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
-SN AT KOFK/KOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTN AND THEN BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
WED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 092133
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A
DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK
WITHIN THE TROUGH. A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 20S IN OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER 40S IN OUR
SNOW FREE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING
A NARROW BAND OF PCPN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING ON THIS HAS SLOWED SEVERAL
HOURS SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE START TIME OF THE PCPN IN OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR EAST WITH ONLY OUR EASTERN FRINGE OF IOWA COUNTIES SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND SKIRT TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PCPN IN WAA REGIME AROUND
THIS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN CHANCES
REMAINING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PROFILES SHOW A
POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN TYPES BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHER
THAN THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
CONSENSUS OF A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT INITIALLY MID-LVL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT ALL 3 SITES BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
-SN AT KOFK/KOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTN AND THEN BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
WED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 091733
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY ABOUT THURSDAY.  DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MS VALLEY BECOMING MORE NWLY. IN THE NEAR-TERM
(TODAY)...WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS WINDY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES TONIGHT BEFORE DIVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIGRATORY SURFACE
CYCLONE AND A CHINOOK-TYPE WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE MID-
MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS
WILL FOSTER A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...THOUGH A WARM NOSE CENTERED
AROUND 850 MB MAY ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH MOST LIKELY BEING OVER OUR
WRN IOWA COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S
SW TO LOWER 20S OVER OUR W-CNTRL IA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA TRANSLATING FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RE-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PRESENT OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF
A SURGE OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR PLUNGING EQUATORWARD...THE IMPACTS
OF WHICH WILL BE LIKELY FELT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

A FEATURE THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATTER
TWO HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE SHOULD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT INITIALLY MID-LVL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT ALL 3 SITES BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
-SN AT KOFK/KOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTN AND THEN BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
WED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 091733
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY ABOUT THURSDAY.  DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MS VALLEY BECOMING MORE NWLY. IN THE NEAR-TERM
(TODAY)...WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS WINDY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES TONIGHT BEFORE DIVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIGRATORY SURFACE
CYCLONE AND A CHINOOK-TYPE WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE MID-
MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS
WILL FOSTER A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...THOUGH A WARM NOSE CENTERED
AROUND 850 MB MAY ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH MOST LIKELY BEING OVER OUR
WRN IOWA COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S
SW TO LOWER 20S OVER OUR W-CNTRL IA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA TRANSLATING FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RE-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PRESENT OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF
A SURGE OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR PLUNGING EQUATORWARD...THE IMPACTS
OF WHICH WILL BE LIKELY FELT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

A FEATURE THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATTER
TWO HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE SHOULD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT INITIALLY MID-LVL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT ALL 3 SITES BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
-SN AT KOFK/KOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTN AND THEN BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
WED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 091733
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY ABOUT THURSDAY.  DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MS VALLEY BECOMING MORE NWLY. IN THE NEAR-TERM
(TODAY)...WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS WINDY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES TONIGHT BEFORE DIVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIGRATORY SURFACE
CYCLONE AND A CHINOOK-TYPE WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE MID-
MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS
WILL FOSTER A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...THOUGH A WARM NOSE CENTERED
AROUND 850 MB MAY ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH MOST LIKELY BEING OVER OUR
WRN IOWA COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S
SW TO LOWER 20S OVER OUR W-CNTRL IA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA TRANSLATING FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RE-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PRESENT OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF
A SURGE OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR PLUNGING EQUATORWARD...THE IMPACTS
OF WHICH WILL BE LIKELY FELT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

A FEATURE THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATTER
TWO HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE SHOULD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT INITIALLY MID-LVL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT ALL 3 SITES BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
-SN AT KOFK/KOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTN AND THEN BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
WED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 091118
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
518 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY ABOUT THURSDAY.  DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MS VALLEY BECOMING MORE NWLY. IN THE NEAR-TERM
(TODAY)...WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS WINDY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES TONIGHT BEFORE DIVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIGRATORY SURFACE
CYCLONE AND A CHINOOK-TYPE WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE MID-
MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS
WILL FOSTER A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...THOUGH A WARM NOSE CENTERED
AROUND 850 MB MAY ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH MOST LIKELY BEING OVER OUR
WRN IOWA COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S
SW TO LOWER 20S OVER OUR W-CNTRL IA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA TRANSLATING FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RE-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PRESENT OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF
A SURGE OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR PLUNGING EQUATORWARD...THE IMPACTS
OF WHICH WILL BE LIKELY FELT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

A FEATURE THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATTER
TWO HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE SHOULD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
TODAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SHOULD START TO DIMINISH TO 12 KNOTS OR
LESS BY 19-22Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD RETURN AT KOFK/KLNK BY 08-10Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 091118
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
518 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY ABOUT THURSDAY.  DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MS VALLEY BECOMING MORE NWLY. IN THE NEAR-TERM
(TODAY)...WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS WINDY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES TONIGHT BEFORE DIVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIGRATORY SURFACE
CYCLONE AND A CHINOOK-TYPE WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE MID-
MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS
WILL FOSTER A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...THOUGH A WARM NOSE CENTERED
AROUND 850 MB MAY ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH MOST LIKELY BEING OVER OUR
WRN IOWA COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S
SW TO LOWER 20S OVER OUR W-CNTRL IA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA TRANSLATING FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RE-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PRESENT OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF
A SURGE OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR PLUNGING EQUATORWARD...THE IMPACTS
OF WHICH WILL BE LIKELY FELT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

A FEATURE THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATTER
TWO HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE SHOULD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
TODAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SHOULD START TO DIMINISH TO 12 KNOTS OR
LESS BY 19-22Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD RETURN AT KOFK/KLNK BY 08-10Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 091118
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
518 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY ABOUT THURSDAY.  DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MS VALLEY BECOMING MORE NWLY. IN THE NEAR-TERM
(TODAY)...WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS WINDY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES TONIGHT BEFORE DIVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIGRATORY SURFACE
CYCLONE AND A CHINOOK-TYPE WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE MID-
MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS
WILL FOSTER A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...THOUGH A WARM NOSE CENTERED
AROUND 850 MB MAY ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH MOST LIKELY BEING OVER OUR
WRN IOWA COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S
SW TO LOWER 20S OVER OUR W-CNTRL IA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA TRANSLATING FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RE-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PRESENT OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF
A SURGE OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR PLUNGING EQUATORWARD...THE IMPACTS
OF WHICH WILL BE LIKELY FELT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

A FEATURE THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATTER
TWO HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE SHOULD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
TODAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SHOULD START TO DIMINISH TO 12 KNOTS OR
LESS BY 19-22Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD RETURN AT KOFK/KLNK BY 08-10Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 090912
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY ABOUT THURSDAY.  DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MS VALLEY BECOMING MORE NWLY. IN THE NEAR-TERM
(TODAY)...WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS WINDY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES TONIGHT BEFORE DIVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIGRATORY SURFACE
CYCLONE AND A CHINOOK-TYPE WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE MID-
MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS
WILL FOSTER A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SSEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...THOUGH A WARM NOSE CENTERED
AROUND 850 MB MAY ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH MOST LIKELY BEING OVER OUR
WRN IOWA COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S
SW TO LOWER 20S OVER OUR W-CNTRL IA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA TRANSLATING FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RE-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PRESENT OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF
A SURGE OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR PLUNGING EQUATORWARD...THE IMPACTS
OF WHICH WILL BE LIKELY FELT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

A FEATURE THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATTER
TWO HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE SHOULD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WINDS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING. REALIZING THERE WILL BE THIS VARIABILITY...FOR A
GENERAL FORECAST WENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15KTS AND MENTIONED
SOME GUSTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIE
DOWN TO LESS THAN 12KTS LATER TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE PATCH OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS EVEN MORE
PATCHY. LOW CLOUDS STILL SKIRT KOMA. WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION DID MENTION A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOMA WITH PATCHY MVFR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 090552
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 PM. SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES...AND
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WINDS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING. REALIZING THERE WILL BE THIS VARIABILITY...FOR A
GENERAL FORECAST WENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15KTS AND MENTIONED
SOME GUSTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIE
DOWN TO LESS THAN 12KTS LATER TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE PATCH OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS EVEN MORE
PATCHY. LOW CLOUDS STILL SKIRT KOMA. WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION DID MENTION A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOMA WITH PATCHY MVFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 090010
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 PM. SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES...AND
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 082332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 082332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 082332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 082127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 082127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 082127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 081805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SENT OUT A MINOR UPDATE AS HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN EASTERN NEBRASKA EXPIRED...BUT CONTINUES IN IOWA. WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY
AN HOUR TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE AND EXTENDED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR IOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. COVERAGE OF PCPN AND VISIBILITIES FROM OBSERVATIONS AND WEB
CAMS ARE WORSE IN IOWA THAN NEBRASKA. THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE
DIFFERENCE IN EXPIRATION TIME.

TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY YET TODAY BUT WILL SLIDE OFF MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS UPSTREAM IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLURRIES INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 081543 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
943 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY
AN HOUR TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE AND EXTENDED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR IOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. COVERAGE OF PCPN AND VISIBILITIES FROM OBSERVATIONS AND WEB
CAMS ARE WORSE IN IOWA THAN NEBRASKA. THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE
DIFFERENCE IN EXPIRATION TIME.

TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY YET TODAY BUT WILL SLIDE OFF MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS UPSTREAM IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLURRIES INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-034-045-052-
     053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-
     030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 081543 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
943 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY
AN HOUR TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE AND EXTENDED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR IOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. COVERAGE OF PCPN AND VISIBILITIES FROM OBSERVATIONS AND WEB
CAMS ARE WORSE IN IOWA THAN NEBRASKA. THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE
DIFFERENCE IN EXPIRATION TIME.

TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY YET TODAY BUT WILL SLIDE OFF MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS UPSTREAM IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLURRIES INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-034-045-052-
     053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-
     030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 081142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 081142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 081142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 080947
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
347 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40KT RANGE WILL PERSIST AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KOMA THROUGH
MID MORNING...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. KOFK AND KLNK SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE BEST SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT THOSE SITES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 080528
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE OR LESS IN
SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM SNOWS LOOK LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH ANY
SNOWFALL WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. SEVERAL
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY TOUCH
OFF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A GOOD 7000FT LAYER OF SATURATED DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE A BACKDROP FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS HOWEVER. BUT EVEN WHEN THE SNOW IS NOT
FALLING...WILL STILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES THROUGH MONDAY.

100+ KNOT 300 MB WINDS EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN
INTO WYOMING AT 12Z ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DIGGING MID TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. AT 500 MB...12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 160 METERS WERE
NOTED FROM MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -30 C OR COLDER. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS
NOTED AT BOTH 700 MB AND 850 MB FROM OUR AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z HAD
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF MINNESOTA AND
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS WELL MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S. STRONGEST WINDS NOTED SO FAR HAVE MOSTLY BEEN IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN FROM PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. THESE COULD PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR LOCALLY MORE BUT WOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND EVEN
SOME VERY LOW CAPE VALUES...THUS THE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY FOR
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NOON MONDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE STARTED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
WILL RUN THAT UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING IF STRONG WINDS PUSH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST FASTER.

REGARDING THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME...
ESPECIALLY DRIFTING SNOW. AT LEAST FOR NOW...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS UP TO THIS POINT
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS MAINLY DRIFTING...AND NOT BEING LOFTED
HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WILL STILL MENTION SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OUR PRODUCTS
THOUGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SNOW CHANCES DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING TO
OUR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 30S IN SOME
OF OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO 20S IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH FROM HUDSON
BAY DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH TIME...BUT REMAIN TO OUR WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BECOME LESS MERIDIONAL FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY.

MODELS SHOW SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT IN GENERAL DO NOT
AGREE ON TIMING OR LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW AND ADJUST WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S OR 30S...DEPENDING ON IF ANY LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS CAN PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...EXPECT SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40KT RANGE WILL PERSIST AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KOMA THROUGH
MID MORNING...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. KOFK AND KLNK SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE BEST SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT THOSE SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-
     067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ051-065-066-
     078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-
     030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 080528
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE OR LESS IN
SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM SNOWS LOOK LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH ANY
SNOWFALL WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. SEVERAL
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY TOUCH
OFF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A GOOD 7000FT LAYER OF SATURATED DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE A BACKDROP FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS HOWEVER. BUT EVEN WHEN THE SNOW IS NOT
FALLING...WILL STILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES THROUGH MONDAY.

100+ KNOT 300 MB WINDS EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN
INTO WYOMING AT 12Z ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DIGGING MID TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. AT 500 MB...12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 160 METERS WERE
NOTED FROM MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -30 C OR COLDER. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS
NOTED AT BOTH 700 MB AND 850 MB FROM OUR AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z HAD
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF MINNESOTA AND
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS WELL MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S. STRONGEST WINDS NOTED SO FAR HAVE MOSTLY BEEN IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN FROM PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. THESE COULD PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR LOCALLY MORE BUT WOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND EVEN
SOME VERY LOW CAPE VALUES...THUS THE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY FOR
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NOON MONDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE STARTED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
WILL RUN THAT UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING IF STRONG WINDS PUSH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST FASTER.

REGARDING THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME...
ESPECIALLY DRIFTING SNOW. AT LEAST FOR NOW...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS UP TO THIS POINT
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS MAINLY DRIFTING...AND NOT BEING LOFTED
HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WILL STILL MENTION SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OUR PRODUCTS
THOUGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SNOW CHANCES DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING TO
OUR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 30S IN SOME
OF OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO 20S IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH FROM HUDSON
BAY DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH TIME...BUT REMAIN TO OUR WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BECOME LESS MERIDIONAL FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY.

MODELS SHOW SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT IN GENERAL DO NOT
AGREE ON TIMING OR LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW AND ADJUST WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S OR 30S...DEPENDING ON IF ANY LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS CAN PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...EXPECT SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40KT RANGE WILL PERSIST AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KOMA THROUGH
MID MORNING...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. KOFK AND KLNK SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE BEST SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT THOSE SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-
     067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ051-065-066-
     078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-
     030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




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