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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE LOW AT 08Z WAS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH
OF FAIRBURY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD KANSAS CITY THROUGH 18Z
AND THEN TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF
STEADY SHOWERS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I80 WILL PERSIST AND MAY
DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THIS PERSISTENT BAND THE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND SOME
AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD EVEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHES GREATLY. HAVE POPS IN
THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TAPERING THOSE DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES IN WESTERN IOWA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TODAY THUS TEMPS
SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
REMAIN RATHER MOIST...AND THOSE CLOUDS COULD EVEN LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DO RECOVER SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW 60S ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BE JUST HIGHER.

MONDAY SHOULD BE A GREAT DAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY SUNNIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE GFS. THERE IS LIMITED MARGINAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THE
ECMWF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS HINTED AT LEAST AT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WARM EACH DAY EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHRA/IFR CONDITIONS COVERING THE
MAJORITY OF ERN NEB THIS MORNING. ALL THIS IN PART TO SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN KS. AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO MO
LATER THIS AFTN...EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH ALL TERMINALS SEEING LOW END VFR CIGS PREVAILING
THRU TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE LOW AT 08Z WAS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH
OF FAIRBURY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD KANSAS CITY THROUGH 18Z
AND THEN TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF
STEADY SHOWERS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I80 WILL PERSIST AND MAY
DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THIS PERSISTENT BAND THE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND SOME
AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD EVEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHES GREATLY. HAVE POPS IN
THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TAPERING THOSE DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES IN WESTERN IOWA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TODAY THUS TEMPS
SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
REMAIN RATHER MOIST...AND THOSE CLOUDS COULD EVEN LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DO RECOVER SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW 60S ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BE JUST HIGHER.

MONDAY SHOULD BE A GREAT DAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY SUNNIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE GFS. THERE IS LIMITED MARGINAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THE
ECMWF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS HINTED AT LEAST AT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WARM EACH DAY EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE LOW AT 08Z WAS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH
OF FAIRBURY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD KANSAS CITY THROUGH 18Z
AND THEN TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF
STEADY SHOWERS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I80 WILL PERSIST AND MAY
DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THIS PERSISTENT BAND THE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND SOME
AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD EVEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHES GREATLY. HAVE POPS IN
THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TAPERING THOSE DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES IN WESTERN IOWA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TODAY THUS TEMPS
SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
REMAIN RATHER MOIST...AND THOSE CLOUDS COULD EVEN LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DO RECOVER SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW 60S ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BE JUST HIGHER.

MONDAY SHOULD BE A GREAT DAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY SUNNIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE GFS. THERE IS LIMITED MARGINAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THE
ECMWF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS HINTED AT LEAST AT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WARM EACH DAY EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE LOW AT 08Z WAS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH
OF FAIRBURY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD KANSAS CITY THROUGH 18Z
AND THEN TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF
STEADY SHOWERS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I80 WILL PERSIST AND MAY
DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THIS PERSISTENT BAND THE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND SOME
AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD EVEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHES GREATLY. HAVE POPS IN
THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TAPERING THOSE DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES IN WESTERN IOWA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TODAY THUS TEMPS
SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
REMAIN RATHER MOIST...AND THOSE CLOUDS COULD EVEN LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DO RECOVER SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW 60S ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BE JUST HIGHER.

MONDAY SHOULD BE A GREAT DAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY SUNNIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE GFS. THERE IS LIMITED MARGINAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THE
ECMWF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS HINTED AT LEAST AT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WARM EACH DAY EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE LOW AT 08Z WAS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH
OF FAIRBURY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD KANSAS CITY THROUGH 18Z
AND THEN TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF
STEADY SHOWERS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I80 WILL PERSIST AND MAY
DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THIS PERSISTENT BAND THE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND SOME
AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD EVEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHES GREATLY. HAVE POPS IN
THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TAPERING THOSE DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES IN WESTERN IOWA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TODAY THUS TEMPS
SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
REMAIN RATHER MOIST...AND THOSE CLOUDS COULD EVEN LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DO RECOVER SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW 60S ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BE JUST HIGHER.

MONDAY SHOULD BE A GREAT DAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY SUNNIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE GFS. THERE IS LIMITED MARGINAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THE
ECMWF THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS HINTED AT LEAST AT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WARM EACH DAY EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.

EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OCCASSIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 242331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.

EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE
EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KLNK AND
KOMA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PASS
OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD SUBSIDE AT THE TAF SITES
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 242331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.

EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE
EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KLNK AND
KOMA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PASS
OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD SUBSIDE AT THE TAF SITES
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 242331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.

EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE
EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KLNK AND
KOMA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PASS
OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD SUBSIDE AT THE TAF SITES
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 242331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.

EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE
EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KLNK AND
KOMA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PASS
OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD SUBSIDE AT THE TAF SITES
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 241950
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.

EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONT THROUGH THE AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK AND WILL MOVE
INTO KOFK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT RA CHCS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES. KOFK MAY SEE SOME SHRA MV IN FM THE
NW FM TSRA THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN NEB...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW THERE. KLNK/KOMA WILL
SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE FM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
INCLUDE SOME THUNDER AT KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KOMA ATTM. IFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVS THRU THE SITES...
IMPROVING TO MVFR ON SAT MRNG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241950
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.

EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONT THROUGH THE AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK AND WILL MOVE
INTO KOFK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT RA CHCS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES. KOFK MAY SEE SOME SHRA MV IN FM THE
NW FM TSRA THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN NEB...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW THERE. KLNK/KOMA WILL
SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE FM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
INCLUDE SOME THUNDER AT KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KOMA ATTM. IFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVS THRU THE SITES...
IMPROVING TO MVFR ON SAT MRNG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241950
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.

EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONT THROUGH THE AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK AND WILL MOVE
INTO KOFK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT RA CHCS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES. KOFK MAY SEE SOME SHRA MV IN FM THE
NW FM TSRA THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN NEB...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW THERE. KLNK/KOMA WILL
SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE FM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
INCLUDE SOME THUNDER AT KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KOMA ATTM. IFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVS THRU THE SITES...
IMPROVING TO MVFR ON SAT MRNG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 241728
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IS TIMING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MSAS WAS DEPICTING STREAK OF
LLVL GULF MOISTURE RUNNING UP ALONG THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTN...SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING
DPVA INDUCING TO SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HIRES PROGS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WHEN CAP WEAKEN OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL
SD ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES. BY LATE THIS
AFTN...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA.
AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER TOP OF MOIST BNDRY
LYR...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE DOWN SOUTH AS WELL.

DEE

SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHEAST KS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS
SUGGEST THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SPC OUTLOOKS CONCURRING. FURTHER
NORTH...INSTABILITY IS NOT AS STRONG BUT WE MAY STILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DEFORMATION BAND COULD
POTENTIALLY SET UP ALONG I80 AS DEPICTED BY HIRES MODELS.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE REGION SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THEN WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

DEWALD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS DOES ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO
SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BOTH MODELS
INDICATE...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY THIN AND GENERALLY MARGINAL...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONT THROUGH THE AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK AND WILL MOV
INTO KOFK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT RA CHCS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES. KOFK MAY SEE SOME SHRA MV IN FM THE
NW FM TSRA THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN NEB...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW THERE. KLNK/KOMA WILL
SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE FM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
INCLUDE SOME THUNDER AT KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KOMA ATTM. IFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVS THRU THE
SITES...IMPROVING TO MVFR ON SAT MRNG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240841 CCA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IS TIMING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MSAS WAS DEPICTING STREAK OF
LLVL GULF MOISTURE RUNNING UP ALONG THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTN...SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING
DPVA INDUCING TO SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HIRES PROGS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WHEN CAP WEAKEN OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL
SD ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES. BY LATE THIS
AFTN...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA.
AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER TOP OF MOIST BNDRY
LYR...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE DOWN SOUTH AS WELL.

DEE

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST KS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SPC OUTLOOKS CONCURRING. FURTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
STRONG BUT WE MAY STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MORESO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A DEFORMATION BAND COULD POTENTIALLY SET UP ALONG I80
AS DEPICTED BY HIRES MODELS.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE REGION SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THEN WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

DEWALD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS DOES ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO
SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BOTH MODELS
INDICATE...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY THIN AND GENERALLY MARGINAL...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT ALL SITES. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AS WELL BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z...AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KLNK DURING THAT TIME.
CIGS COULD DROP BELOW FL010 FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS
WELL. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REACH KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 00Z AS STORMS IGNITE ALONG A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER...BUT THOSE SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES MUCH OF THE 00Z THROUGH 06Z
PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240841 CCA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IS TIMING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MSAS WAS DEPICTING STREAK OF
LLVL GULF MOISTURE RUNNING UP ALONG THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTN...SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING
DPVA INDUCING TO SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HIRES PROGS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WHEN CAP WEAKEN OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL
SD ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES. BY LATE THIS
AFTN...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA.
AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER TOP OF MOIST BNDRY
LYR...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE DOWN SOUTH AS WELL.

DEE

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST KS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SPC OUTLOOKS CONCURRING. FURTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
STRONG BUT WE MAY STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MORESO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A DEFORMATION BAND COULD POTENTIALLY SET UP ALONG I80
AS DEPICTED BY HIRES MODELS.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE REGION SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THEN WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

DEWALD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS DOES ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO
SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BOTH MODELS
INDICATE...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY THIN AND GENERALLY MARGINAL...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT ALL SITES. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AS WELL BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z...AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KLNK DURING THAT TIME.
CIGS COULD DROP BELOW FL010 FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS
WELL. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REACH KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 00Z AS STORMS IGNITE ALONG A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER...BUT THOSE SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES MUCH OF THE 00Z THROUGH 06Z
PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240841
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IS TIMING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MSAS WAS DEPICTING STREAK OF
LLVL GULF MOISTURE RUNNING UP ALONG THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTN...SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING
DPVA INDUCING TO SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HIRES PROGS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WHEN CAP WEAKEN OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL
SD ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES. BY LATE THIS
AFTN...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA.
AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER TOP OF MOIST BNDRY
LYR...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE DOWN SOUTH AS WELL.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST KS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SPC OUTLOOKS CONCURRING. FURTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
STRONG BUT WE MAY STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MORESO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A DEFORMATION BAND COULD POTENTIALLY SET UP ALONG I80
AS DEPICTED BY HIRES MODELS.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE REGION SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THEN WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS DOES ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO
SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BOTH MODELS
INDICATE...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY THIN AND GENERALLY MARGINAL...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT ALL SITES. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AS WELL BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z...AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KLNK DURING THAT TIME.
CIGS COULD DROP BELOW FL010 FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS
WELL. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REACH KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 00Z AS STORMS IGNITE ALONG A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER...BUT THOSE SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES MUCH OF THE 00Z THROUGH 06Z
PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240500
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1200 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT DEAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NRN AR. WINDS LOCALLY HAD
INCREASED MAINLY INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. THUS WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT
LOWS MAINLY 44-48 TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LEAD SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE
MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN AREA OF 700-300 MB DPVA AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI MORNING...MOVING EWD INTO IA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 MB DELTA-T VALUES OF 20-23 C/ OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO...AND THESE SHOULD ADVECT EWD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO SRN NEB/KS GIVEN THE FLOW WITHIN THIS LAYER.
THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH 850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KM ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA
FRI MRNG UNDER THESE INCREASING LAPSE-RATES CREATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MRNG INDICATE AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED AROUND 1-2 KM.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THOUGH IS FAIRLY MARGINAL...AROUND 25-30 KT...BUT
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON FRI
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA.

BY FRI AFTN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS/GEM MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS WE FEEL THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SHOULD
VERIFY. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER KS ON
FRI AFTN AND LIFT QUICKLY NEWD FRI EVENING WITH A FEW OF THOSE
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR SRN FA. OTHERWISE AS THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AGAIN INCREASES FRI NIGHT AS THE SRN CA LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT SHRA...ENDING
TOWARD SAT MRNG AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT COOL
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NERLY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE WRN US STILL LOOKS TO TAKE A
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY PRECIP...AND WE WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH NEXT THU. THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY START TO EXPAND EWD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT ALL SITES. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AS WELL BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z...AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KLNK DURING THAT TIME.
CIGS COULD DROP BELOW FL010 FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS
WELL. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REACH KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 00Z AS STORMS IGNITE ALONG A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER...BUT THOSE SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES MUCH OF THE 00Z THROUGH 06Z
PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240500
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1200 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT DEAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NRN AR. WINDS LOCALLY HAD
INCREASED MAINLY INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. THUS WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT
LOWS MAINLY 44-48 TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LEAD SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE
MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN AREA OF 700-300 MB DPVA AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI MORNING...MOVING EWD INTO IA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 MB DELTA-T VALUES OF 20-23 C/ OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO...AND THESE SHOULD ADVECT EWD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO SRN NEB/KS GIVEN THE FLOW WITHIN THIS LAYER.
THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH 850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KM ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA
FRI MRNG UNDER THESE INCREASING LAPSE-RATES CREATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MRNG INDICATE AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED AROUND 1-2 KM.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THOUGH IS FAIRLY MARGINAL...AROUND 25-30 KT...BUT
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON FRI
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA.

BY FRI AFTN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS/GEM MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS WE FEEL THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SHOULD
VERIFY. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER KS ON
FRI AFTN AND LIFT QUICKLY NEWD FRI EVENING WITH A FEW OF THOSE
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR SRN FA. OTHERWISE AS THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AGAIN INCREASES FRI NIGHT AS THE SRN CA LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT SHRA...ENDING
TOWARD SAT MRNG AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT COOL
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NERLY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE WRN US STILL LOOKS TO TAKE A
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY PRECIP...AND WE WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH NEXT THU. THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY START TO EXPAND EWD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT ALL SITES. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AS WELL BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z...AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KLNK DURING THAT TIME.
CIGS COULD DROP BELOW FL010 FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS
WELL. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REACH KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 00Z AS STORMS IGNITE ALONG A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER...BUT THOSE SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES MUCH OF THE 00Z THROUGH 06Z
PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 232334
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT DEAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NRN AR. WINDS LOCALLY HAD
INCREASED MAINLY INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. THUS WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT
LOWS MAINLY 44-48 TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LEAD SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE
MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN AREA OF 700-300 MB DPVA AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI MORNING...MOVING EWD INTO IA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 MB DELTA-T VALUES OF 20-23 C/ OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO...AND THESE SHOULD ADVECT EWD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO SRN NEB/KS GIVEN THE FLOW WITHIN THIS LAYER.
THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH 850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KM ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA
FRI MRNG UNDER THESE INCREASING LAPSE-RATES CREATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MRNG INDICATE AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED AROUND 1-2 KM.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THOUGH IS FAIRLY MARGINAL...AROUND 25-30 KT...BUT
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON FRI
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA.

BY FRI AFTN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS/GEM MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS WE FEEL THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SHOULD
VERIFY. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER KS ON
FRI AFTN AND LIFT QUICKLY NEWD FRI EVENING WITH A FEW OF THOSE
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR SRN FA. OTHERWISE AS THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AGAIN INCREASES FRI NIGHT AS THE SRN CA LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT SHRA...ENDING
TOWARD SAT MRNG AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT COOL
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NERLY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE WRN US STILL LOOKS TO TAKE A
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY PRECIP...AND WE WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH NEXT THU. THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY START TO EXPAND EWD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER 06Z AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING AT THAT TIME.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT
KOMA AND KLNK...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A LULL IN SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD
LINGER. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLNK AND KOMA AFTER
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 232334
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT DEAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NRN AR. WINDS LOCALLY HAD
INCREASED MAINLY INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. THUS WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT
LOWS MAINLY 44-48 TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LEAD SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE
MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN AREA OF 700-300 MB DPVA AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI MORNING...MOVING EWD INTO IA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 MB DELTA-T VALUES OF 20-23 C/ OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO...AND THESE SHOULD ADVECT EWD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO SRN NEB/KS GIVEN THE FLOW WITHIN THIS LAYER.
THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH 850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KM ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA
FRI MRNG UNDER THESE INCREASING LAPSE-RATES CREATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MRNG INDICATE AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED AROUND 1-2 KM.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THOUGH IS FAIRLY MARGINAL...AROUND 25-30 KT...BUT
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON FRI
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA.

BY FRI AFTN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS/GEM MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS WE FEEL THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SHOULD
VERIFY. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER KS ON
FRI AFTN AND LIFT QUICKLY NEWD FRI EVENING WITH A FEW OF THOSE
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR SRN FA. OTHERWISE AS THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AGAIN INCREASES FRI NIGHT AS THE SRN CA LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT SHRA...ENDING
TOWARD SAT MRNG AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT COOL
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NERLY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE WRN US STILL LOOKS TO TAKE A
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY PRECIP...AND WE WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH NEXT THU. THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY START TO EXPAND EWD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER 06Z AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING AT THAT TIME.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT
KOMA AND KLNK...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A LULL IN SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD
LINGER. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLNK AND KOMA AFTER
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 232334
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT DEAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NRN AR. WINDS LOCALLY HAD
INCREASED MAINLY INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. THUS WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT
LOWS MAINLY 44-48 TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LEAD SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE
MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN AREA OF 700-300 MB DPVA AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI MORNING...MOVING EWD INTO IA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 MB DELTA-T VALUES OF 20-23 C/ OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO...AND THESE SHOULD ADVECT EWD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO SRN NEB/KS GIVEN THE FLOW WITHIN THIS LAYER.
THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH 850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KM ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA
FRI MRNG UNDER THESE INCREASING LAPSE-RATES CREATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MRNG INDICATE AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED AROUND 1-2 KM.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THOUGH IS FAIRLY MARGINAL...AROUND 25-30 KT...BUT
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON FRI
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA.

BY FRI AFTN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS/GEM MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS WE FEEL THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SHOULD
VERIFY. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER KS ON
FRI AFTN AND LIFT QUICKLY NEWD FRI EVENING WITH A FEW OF THOSE
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR SRN FA. OTHERWISE AS THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AGAIN INCREASES FRI NIGHT AS THE SRN CA LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT SHRA...ENDING
TOWARD SAT MRNG AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT COOL
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NERLY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE WRN US STILL LOOKS TO TAKE A
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY PRECIP...AND WE WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH NEXT THU. THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY START TO EXPAND EWD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER 06Z AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING AT THAT TIME.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT
KOMA AND KLNK...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A LULL IN SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD
LINGER. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLNK AND KOMA AFTER
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 232334
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT DEAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NRN AR. WINDS LOCALLY HAD
INCREASED MAINLY INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. THUS WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT
LOWS MAINLY 44-48 TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LEAD SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE
MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN AREA OF 700-300 MB DPVA AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI MORNING...MOVING EWD INTO IA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 MB DELTA-T VALUES OF 20-23 C/ OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO...AND THESE SHOULD ADVECT EWD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO SRN NEB/KS GIVEN THE FLOW WITHIN THIS LAYER.
THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH 850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KM ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA
FRI MRNG UNDER THESE INCREASING LAPSE-RATES CREATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MRNG INDICATE AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED AROUND 1-2 KM.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THOUGH IS FAIRLY MARGINAL...AROUND 25-30 KT...BUT
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON FRI
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA.

BY FRI AFTN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS/GEM MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS WE FEEL THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SHOULD
VERIFY. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER KS ON
FRI AFTN AND LIFT QUICKLY NEWD FRI EVENING WITH A FEW OF THOSE
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR SRN FA. OTHERWISE AS THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AGAIN INCREASES FRI NIGHT AS THE SRN CA LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT SHRA...ENDING
TOWARD SAT MRNG AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT COOL
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NERLY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE WRN US STILL LOOKS TO TAKE A
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY PRECIP...AND WE WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH NEXT THU. THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY START TO EXPAND EWD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER 06Z AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING AT THAT TIME.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT
KOMA AND KLNK...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A LULL IN SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD
LINGER. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLNK AND KOMA AFTER
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 232006
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT DEAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NRN AR. WINDS LOCALLY HAD
INCREASED MAINLY INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. THUS WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT
LOWS MAINLY 44-48 TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LEAD SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE
MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN AREA OF 700-300 MB DPVA AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI MORNING...MOVING EWD INTO IA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 MB DELTA-T VALUES OF 20-23 C/ OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO...AND THESE SHOULD ADVECT EWD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO SRN NEB/KS GIVEN THE FLOW WITHIN THIS LAYER.
THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH 850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KM ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA
FRI MRNG UNDER THESE INCREASING LAPSE-RATES CREATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MRNG INDICATE AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED AROUND 1-2 KM.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THOUGH IS FAIRLY MARGINAL...AROUND 25-30 KT...BUT
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON FRI
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA.

BY FRI AFTN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS/GEM MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS WE FEEL THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SHOULD
VERIFY. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER KS ON
FRI AFTN AND LIFT QUICKLY NEWD FRI EVENING WITH A FEW OF THOSE
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR SRN FA. OTHERWISE AS THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AGAIN INCREASES FRI NIGHT AS THE SRN CA LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT SHRA...ENDING
TOWARD SAT MRNG AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT COOL
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NERLY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE WRN US STILL LOOKS TO TAKE A
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY PRECIP...AND WE WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH NEXT THU. THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY START TO EXPAND EWD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
POTENTIALLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH PCPN. THIS
IS MOST LIKELY AFTER 07Z. CEILINGS THEN MAY REMAIN DOWN MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 232006
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT DEAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NRN AR. WINDS LOCALLY HAD
INCREASED MAINLY INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. THUS WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT
LOWS MAINLY 44-48 TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LEAD SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE
MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN AREA OF 700-300 MB DPVA AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI MORNING...MOVING EWD INTO IA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 MB DELTA-T VALUES OF 20-23 C/ OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO...AND THESE SHOULD ADVECT EWD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO SRN NEB/KS GIVEN THE FLOW WITHIN THIS LAYER.
THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH 850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KM ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT NWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA
FRI MRNG UNDER THESE INCREASING LAPSE-RATES CREATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRI MRNG INDICATE AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR A PARCEL LIFTED AROUND 1-2 KM.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THOUGH IS FAIRLY MARGINAL...AROUND 25-30 KT...BUT
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON FRI
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA.

BY FRI AFTN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS/GEM MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS WE FEEL THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SHOULD
VERIFY. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER KS ON
FRI AFTN AND LIFT QUICKLY NEWD FRI EVENING WITH A FEW OF THOSE
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR SRN FA. OTHERWISE AS THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AGAIN INCREASES FRI NIGHT AS THE SRN CA LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT SHRA...ENDING
TOWARD SAT MRNG AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT COOL
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NERLY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY DRY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE WRN US STILL LOOKS TO TAKE A
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY PRECIP...AND WE WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH NEXT THU. THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY START TO EXPAND EWD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
POTENTIALLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH PCPN. THIS
IS MOST LIKELY AFTER 07Z. CEILINGS THEN MAY REMAIN DOWN MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 231721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY. TONIGHT...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AFTER A COOL START...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN CA...AND STRONG TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH NE/DAKOTAS INTO SASK...AND 850MB LOW WAS NOTED IN EASTERN
NEB...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  POCKET OF
SUB-0C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/IL AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 07Z EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL MO...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE
MEANTIME...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.  BY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO NEB...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDS DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE CWA IN THE
LATE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DO THINK THAT OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEB BY NOON...AND WILL EXIT WESTERN IA SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.  AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF THE CO PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN KS BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH WARM
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AND DRYLINE SOUTHWARD INTO OK.  OF
COURSE...ALL OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
COULD SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SLIP INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATER IN THE EVENING. MORE LIKELY...SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH IN CENTRAL NEB WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND DIMINISH AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
LOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COOLER DAY
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES.  AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND
THUS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB TO MN/IA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER
AREA...BUT SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME WARMING FINALLY BECOMING EVIDENT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US. EVOLUTION OF THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL SUBJECT TO QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
POTENTIALLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH PCPN. THIS
IS MOST LIKELY AFTER 07Z. CEILINGS THEN MAY REMAIN DOWN MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY. TONIGHT...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AFTER A COOL START...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN CA...AND STRONG TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH NE/DAKOTAS INTO SASK...AND 850MB LOW WAS NOTED IN EASTERN
NEB...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  POCKET OF
SUB-0C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/IL AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 07Z EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL MO...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE
MEANTIME...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.  BY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO NEB...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDS DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE CWA IN THE
LATE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DO THINK THAT OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEB BY NOON...AND WILL EXIT WESTERN IA SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.  AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF THE CO PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN KS BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH WARM
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AND DRYLINE SOUTHWARD INTO OK.  OF
COURSE...ALL OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
COULD SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SLIP INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATER IN THE EVENING. MORE LIKELY...SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH IN CENTRAL NEB WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND DIMINISH AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
LOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COOLER DAY
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES.  AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND
THUS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB TO MN/IA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER
AREA...BUT SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME WARMING FINALLY BECOMING EVIDENT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US. EVOLUTION OF THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL SUBJECT TO QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
POTENTIALLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH PCPN. THIS
IS MOST LIKELY AFTER 07Z. CEILINGS THEN MAY REMAIN DOWN MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY. TONIGHT...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AFTER A COOL START...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN CA...AND STRONG TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH NE/DAKOTAS INTO SASK...AND 850MB LOW WAS NOTED IN EASTERN
NEB...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  POCKET OF
SUB-0C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/IL AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 07Z EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL MO...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE
MEANTIME...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.  BY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO NEB...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDS DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE CWA IN THE
LATE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DO THINK THAT OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEB BY NOON...AND WILL EXIT WESTERN IA SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.  AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF THE CO PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN KS BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH WARM
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AND DRYLINE SOUTHWARD INTO OK.  OF
COURSE...ALL OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
COULD SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SLIP INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATER IN THE EVENING. MORE LIKELY...SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH IN CENTRAL NEB WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND DIMINISH AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
LOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COOLER DAY
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES.  AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND
THUS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB TO MN/IA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER
AREA...BUT SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME WARMING FINALLY BECOMING EVIDENT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US. EVOLUTION OF THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL SUBJECT TO QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
POTENTIALLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH PCPN. THIS
IS MOST LIKELY AFTER 07Z. CEILINGS THEN MAY REMAIN DOWN MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 231134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AFTER A COOL START...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORHTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN CA...AND STRONG TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH NE/DAKOTAS INTO SASK...AND 850MB LOW WAS NOTED IN EASTERN
NEB...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  POCKET OF
SUB-0C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXTNEDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/IL AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 07Z EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL MO...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE
MEANTIME...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.  BY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO NEB...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDS DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE CWA IN THE
LATE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DO THINK THAT OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEB BY NOON...AND WILL EXIT WESTERN IA SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.  AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF THE CO PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN KS BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH WARM
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AND DRYLINE SOUTHWARD INTO OK.  OF
COURSE...ALL OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOOCIATED FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SLIP INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA LATER IN THE EVENING.  MORE LIKELY...SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH IN
CENTRAL NEB WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIMINISH
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  A FEW
LINGERING SHWOERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COOLER DAY PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES.  AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND
THUS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB TO MN/IA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER
AREA...BUT SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME WARMING FINALLY BECOMING EVIDENT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US. EVOLUTION OF THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL SUBJECT TO QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A FEW
CU ARE POSSIBLE AS WE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION AFTER 06Z SO DID INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AFTER A COOL START...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORHTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN CA...AND STRONG TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH NE/DAKOTAS INTO SASK...AND 850MB LOW WAS NOTED IN EASTERN
NEB...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  POCKET OF
SUB-0C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXTNEDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/IL AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 07Z EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL MO...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE
MEANTIME...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.  BY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO NEB...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDS DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE CWA IN THE
LATE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DO THINK THAT OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEB BY NOON...AND WILL EXIT WESTERN IA SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.  AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF THE CO PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN KS BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH WARM
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AND DRYLINE SOUTHWARD INTO OK.  OF
COURSE...ALL OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOOCIATED FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SLIP INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA LATER IN THE EVENING.  MORE LIKELY...SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH IN
CENTRAL NEB WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIMINISH
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  A FEW
LINGERING SHWOERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COOLER DAY PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES.  AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND
THUS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB TO MN/IA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER
AREA...BUT SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME WARMING FINALLY BECOMING EVIDENT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US. EVOLUTION OF THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL SUBJECT TO QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A FEW
CU ARE POSSIBLE AS WE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION AFTER 06Z SO DID INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230830
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AFTER A COOL START...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORHTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN CA...AND STRONG TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH NE/DAKOTAS INTO SASK...AND 850MB LOW WAS NOTED IN EASTERN
NEB...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  POCKET OF
SUB-0C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXTNEDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/IL AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 07Z EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL MO...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE
MEANTIME...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.  BY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO NEB...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDS DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE CWA IN THE
LATE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DO THINK THAT OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEB BY NOON...AND WILL EXIT WESTERN IA SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.  AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF THE CO PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN KS BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH WARM
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AND DRYLINE SOUTHWARD INTO OK.  OF
COURSE...ALL OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOOCIATED FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SLIP INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA LATER IN THE EVENING.  MORE LIKELY...SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH IN
CENTRAL NEB WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIMINISH
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  A FEW
LINGERING SHWOERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COOLER DAY PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES.  AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND
THUS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB TO MN/IA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER
AREA...BUT SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME WARMING FINALLY BECOMING EVIDENT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US. EVOLUTION OF THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL SUBJECT TO QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
THURSDAY. THEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE. MID CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THURSDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FL050. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALL
TAF SITES BEFORE 06Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230830
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AFTER A COOL START...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORHTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN CA...AND STRONG TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH NE/DAKOTAS INTO SASK...AND 850MB LOW WAS NOTED IN EASTERN
NEB...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  POCKET OF
SUB-0C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXTNEDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/IL AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 07Z EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL MO...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE
MEANTIME...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.  BY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO NEB...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDS DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE CWA IN THE
LATE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DO THINK THAT OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEB BY NOON...AND WILL EXIT WESTERN IA SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.  AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF THE CO PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN KS BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH WARM
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AND DRYLINE SOUTHWARD INTO OK.  OF
COURSE...ALL OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOOCIATED FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SLIP INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA LATER IN THE EVENING.  MORE LIKELY...SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH IN
CENTRAL NEB WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIMINISH
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  A FEW
LINGERING SHWOERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COOLER DAY PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES.  AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND
THUS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB TO MN/IA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER
AREA...BUT SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME WARMING FINALLY BECOMING EVIDENT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US. EVOLUTION OF THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL SUBJECT TO QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
THURSDAY. THEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE. MID CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THURSDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FL050. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALL
TAF SITES BEFORE 06Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
THURSDAY. THEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE. MID CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THURSDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FL050. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALL
TAF SITES BEFORE 06Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
THURSDAY. THEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE. MID CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THURSDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FL050. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALL
TAF SITES BEFORE 06Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
THURSDAY. THEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE. MID CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THURSDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FL050. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALL
TAF SITES BEFORE 06Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
THURSDAY. THEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE. MID CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THURSDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FL050. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALL
TAF SITES BEFORE 06Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 222329
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF MID CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 22KT SHOULD OCCUR
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 222329
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF MID CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 22KT SHOULD OCCUR
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222329
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF MID CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 22KT SHOULD OCCUR
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222329
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF MID CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 22KT SHOULD OCCUR
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 222026
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222026
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
/CURRENTLY FM ERN SD TO NE KS/ SLOWLY CROSSING THE FA. THE CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION CONTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 300 K SFC
WITH COND PRES DEF DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISO -SHRA AS EARLY AS THU EVENING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
CA...LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO TSRA AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA
WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT ON FRI AFTN WITH THE GFS/GEM FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE INSTABILITY/FRONT THAN THE EC/NAM. WE CURRENTLY
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION BUT EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WE MAY SEE SOME SCT STRONGER TSRA LATE THU AFTN/EVNG MOV
ACRS THE FAR SRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/NEAR 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. THE PRECIP
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE AREA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY
SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS ON SAT WITH COOL NERLY SFC WIND
EXPECTED THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING...AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. SOME AREAS OF THE ERN CWA MAY NOT CRACK 50
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EJECT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SUN/MON...BUT MOST SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT
ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDC PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 221716
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH EARLIER 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SLIDING
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MID 50S
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AGAIN WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A LEE SIDE SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND COULD
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES ONCE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
IS SCOURED OUT. BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENTER
INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS KANSAS FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD CLIP
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A FEW SHOWERS ARE  POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

BY SUNDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD WHILE
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT INTERESTING WITH THE
00Z ECMWF DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE 00Z
GFS KEEPS THE WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
POP INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221716
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH EARLIER 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SLIDING
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MID 50S
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AGAIN WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A LEE SIDE SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND COULD
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES ONCE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
IS SCOURED OUT. BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENTER
INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS KANSAS FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD CLIP
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A FEW SHOWERS ARE  POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

BY SUNDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD WHILE
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT INTERESTING WITH THE
00Z ECMWF DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE 00Z
GFS KEEPS THE WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
POP INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 221716
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH EARLIER 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SLIDING
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MID 50S
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AGAIN WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A LEE SIDE SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND COULD
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES ONCE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
IS SCOURED OUT. BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENTER
INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS KANSAS FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD CLIP
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A FEW SHOWERS ARE  POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

BY SUNDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD WHILE
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT INTERESTING WITH THE
00Z ECMWF DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE 00Z
GFS KEEPS THE WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
POP INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221716
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH EARLIER 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SLIDING
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MID 50S
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AGAIN WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A LEE SIDE SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND COULD
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES ONCE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
IS SCOURED OUT. BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENTER
INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS KANSAS FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD CLIP
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A FEW SHOWERS ARE  POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

BY SUNDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD WHILE
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT INTERESTING WITH THE
00Z ECMWF DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE 00Z
GFS KEEPS THE WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
POP INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE





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