Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KOAX 010528
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
NEBRASKA.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE
OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE
NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR
SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD.

FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z
TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND
NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH
OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTS TO WORK SEWD AND WILL CLEAR THE KOMA/KLNK
TERMINALS BY 08Z. UNTIL THEN A FEW FLURRIES CONT TO BE POSSIBLE
FROM THIS CLOUD DECK. ONCE THIS DECK CLEARS WE EXPECT VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SFC CDFNT WILL MOV THROUGH
ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD SWITCHING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH KOFK AROUND 14Z AND KOMA/KLNK
AROUND 17-18Z. A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 010528
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
NEBRASKA.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE
OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE
NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR
SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD.

FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z
TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND
NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH
OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTS TO WORK SEWD AND WILL CLEAR THE KOMA/KLNK
TERMINALS BY 08Z. UNTIL THEN A FEW FLURRIES CONT TO BE POSSIBLE
FROM THIS CLOUD DECK. ONCE THIS DECK CLEARS WE EXPECT VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SFC CDFNT WILL MOV THROUGH
ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD SWITCHING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH KOFK AROUND 14Z AND KOMA/KLNK
AROUND 17-18Z. A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
NEBRASKA.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE
OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE
NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR
SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD.

FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z
TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND
NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH
OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS AT AT KOMA/KLNK WILL CONT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
THIS CLD DECK SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
THE TAF SITES. FLURRIES WILL ALSO CONT TO BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ENDING. THE FRNT WILL SWITCH THE
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...FIRST KOFK LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN ON SUN MRNG AT KOMA/KLNK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL 3 SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
NEBRASKA.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE
OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE
NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR
SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD.

FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z
TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND
NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH
OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS AT AT KOMA/KLNK WILL CONT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
THIS CLD DECK SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
THE TAF SITES. FLURRIES WILL ALSO CONT TO BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ENDING. THE FRNT WILL SWITCH THE
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...FIRST KOFK LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN ON SUN MRNG AT KOMA/KLNK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL 3 SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
NEBRASKA.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE
OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE
NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR
SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD.

FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z
TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND
NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH
OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS AT AT KOMA/KLNK WILL CONT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
THIS CLD DECK SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
THE TAF SITES. FLURRIES WILL ALSO CONT TO BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ENDING. THE FRNT WILL SWITCH THE
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...FIRST KOFK LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN ON SUN MRNG AT KOMA/KLNK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL 3 SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
NEBRASKA.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE
OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE
NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR
SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD.

FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z
TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND
NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH
OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS AT AT KOMA/KLNK WILL CONT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
THIS CLD DECK SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
THE TAF SITES. FLURRIES WILL ALSO CONT TO BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ENDING. THE FRNT WILL SWITCH THE
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...FIRST KOFK LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN ON SUN MRNG AT KOMA/KLNK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL 3 SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282126
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
NEBRASKA.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE
OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE
NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR
SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD.

FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z
TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND
NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH
OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST. FOR KOFK...EXPECT NOTHING MORE
THAN FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR KOMA...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE SITE AND SHOULD PERSIST...ALBIET LIGHT...THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING VISIBILTIIES DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL
AS CEILING HEIGHTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DARK.
FOR KLNK...SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE WITH AN INCH OR
SO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER DARK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282126
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
NEBRASKA.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE
OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE
NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR
SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD.

FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z
TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND
NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH
OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST. FOR KOFK...EXPECT NOTHING MORE
THAN FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR KOMA...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE SITE AND SHOULD PERSIST...ALBIET LIGHT...THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING VISIBILTIIES DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL
AS CEILING HEIGHTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DARK.
FOR KLNK...SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE WITH AN INCH OR
SO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER DARK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281726
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1126 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD TROF THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE JET STREAM DIPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. MEANWHILE...SFC OBS SHOWING SLY
FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY.

TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL PCPN THIS WEEKEND
WITH PCPN TYPE BEING AN ISSUE. PLACEMENT SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TOO
AS THE LATEST NAM/GFS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE CWA AS OPPOSED TO THE CMC/ECM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS QPF
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT PREFER FAVORING CMC/ECM
SOLUTIONS GIVEN BOTH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE RUNS
FOCUSING ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA. EXPECT AREA OF SN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN KS TO EXPAND NWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN ALONG AXIS OF
DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/MOIST UPGLIDE ALONG 295K THETA SFC.
BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SRN
CWA THRU TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING AND ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

EVENT MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT A BIT MORE TRICKY THEN CONSIDERING THRUST OF
CAA SWEEPING IN WILL MAKE DETERMINING PCPN TYPE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH AMONGST THE CMC/ECM/GFS CRIT
THKNS...850MB TEMP....COBB DATA THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MORE OR LESS
FAVOR SOME SORT OF RA/FZRA/SN MIX OVER MOST OF THE CWA ALL THE WAY
THRU 12Z TUES MORNING WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASICALLY CONFIDED
TO THE NRN CWA.INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXCT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST. FOR KOFK...EXPECT NOTHING MORE
THAN FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR KOMA...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE SITE AND SHOULD PERSIST...ALBIET LIGHT...THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING VISIBILTIIES DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL
AS CEILING HEIGHTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DARK.
FOR KLNK...SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE WITH AN INCH OR
SO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER DARK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281247
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
647 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD TROF THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE JET STREAM DIPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. MEANWHILE...SFC OBS SHOWING SLY
FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY.

TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL PCPN THIS WEEKEND
WITH PCPN TYPE BEING AN ISSUE. PLACEMENT SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TOO
AS THE LATEST NAM/GFS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE CWA AS OPPOSED TO THE CMC/ECM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS QPF
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT PREFER FAVORING CMC/ECM
SOLUTIONS GIVEN BOTH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE RUNS
FOCUSING ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA. EXPECT AREA OF SN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN KS TO EXPAND NWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN ALONG AXIS OF
DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/MOIST UPGLIDE ALONG 295K THETA SFC.
BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SRN
CWA THRU TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING AND ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

EVENT MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT A BIT MORE TRICKY THEN CONSIDERING THRUST OF
CAA SWEEPING IN WILL MAKE DETERMINING PCPN TYPE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH AMONGST THE CMC/ECM/GFS CRIT
THKNS...850MB TEMP....COBB DATA THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MORE OR LESS
FAVOR SOME SORT OF RA/FZRA/SN MIX OVER MOST OF THE CWA ALL THE WAY
THRU 12Z TUES MORNING WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASICALLY CONFIDED
TO THE NRN CWA.INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXCT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KOMA...KOFK...AND KLNK UNTIL 20Z WHEN
SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS. SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT KOMA AND KLNK UNTIL 04Z. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KOFK BY 00Z,

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281247
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
647 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD TROF THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE JET STREAM DIPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. MEANWHILE...SFC OBS SHOWING SLY
FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY.

TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL PCPN THIS WEEKEND
WITH PCPN TYPE BEING AN ISSUE. PLACEMENT SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TOO
AS THE LATEST NAM/GFS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE CWA AS OPPOSED TO THE CMC/ECM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS QPF
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT PREFER FAVORING CMC/ECM
SOLUTIONS GIVEN BOTH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE RUNS
FOCUSING ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA. EXPECT AREA OF SN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN KS TO EXPAND NWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN ALONG AXIS OF
DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/MOIST UPGLIDE ALONG 295K THETA SFC.
BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SRN
CWA THRU TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING AND ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

EVENT MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT A BIT MORE TRICKY THEN CONSIDERING THRUST OF
CAA SWEEPING IN WILL MAKE DETERMINING PCPN TYPE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH AMONGST THE CMC/ECM/GFS CRIT
THKNS...850MB TEMP....COBB DATA THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MORE OR LESS
FAVOR SOME SORT OF RA/FZRA/SN MIX OVER MOST OF THE CWA ALL THE WAY
THRU 12Z TUES MORNING WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASICALLY CONFIDED
TO THE NRN CWA.INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXCT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KOMA...KOFK...AND KLNK UNTIL 20Z WHEN
SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS. SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT KOMA AND KLNK UNTIL 04Z. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KOFK BY 00Z,

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281247
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
647 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD TROF THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE JET STREAM DIPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. MEANWHILE...SFC OBS SHOWING SLY
FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY.

TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL PCPN THIS WEEKEND
WITH PCPN TYPE BEING AN ISSUE. PLACEMENT SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TOO
AS THE LATEST NAM/GFS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE CWA AS OPPOSED TO THE CMC/ECM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS QPF
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT PREFER FAVORING CMC/ECM
SOLUTIONS GIVEN BOTH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE RUNS
FOCUSING ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA. EXPECT AREA OF SN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN KS TO EXPAND NWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN ALONG AXIS OF
DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/MOIST UPGLIDE ALONG 295K THETA SFC.
BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SRN
CWA THRU TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING AND ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

EVENT MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT A BIT MORE TRICKY THEN CONSIDERING THRUST OF
CAA SWEEPING IN WILL MAKE DETERMINING PCPN TYPE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH AMONGST THE CMC/ECM/GFS CRIT
THKNS...850MB TEMP....COBB DATA THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MORE OR LESS
FAVOR SOME SORT OF RA/FZRA/SN MIX OVER MOST OF THE CWA ALL THE WAY
THRU 12Z TUES MORNING WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASICALLY CONFIDED
TO THE NRN CWA.INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXCT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KOMA...KOFK...AND KLNK UNTIL 20Z WHEN
SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS. SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT KOMA AND KLNK UNTIL 04Z. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KOFK BY 00Z,

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD TROF THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE JET STREAM DIPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. MEANWHILE...SFC OBS SHOWING SLY
FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY.

TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL PCPN THIS WEEKEND
WITH PCPN TYPE BEING AN ISSUE. PLACEMENT SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TOO
AS THE LATEST NAM/GFS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE CWA AS OPPOSED TO THE CMC/ECM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS QPF
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT PREFER FAVORING CMC/ECM
SOLUTIONS GIVEN BOTH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE RUNS
FOCUSING ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA. EXPECT AREA OF SN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN KS TO EXPAND NWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN ALONG AXIS OF
DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/MOIST UPGLIDE ALONG 295K THETA SFC.
BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SRN
CWA THRU TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING AND ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

EVENT MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT A BIT MORE TRICKY THEN CONSIDERING THRUST OF
CAA SWEEPING IN WILL MAKE DETERMINING PCPN TYPE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH AMONGST THE CMC/ECM/GFS CRIT
THKNS...850MB TEMP....COBB DATA THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MORE OR LESS
FAVOR SOME SORT OF RA/FZRA/SN MIX OVER MOST OF THE CWA ALL THE WAY
THRU 12Z TUES MORNING WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASICALLY CONFIDED
TO THE NRN CWA.INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXCT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING MVFR AT KLNK/KOMA AS SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KLNK 18-24Z AND KOMA
19-01Z. WILL INTRODUCE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT KOFK
21-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD TROF THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE JET STREAM DIPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. MEANWHILE...SFC OBS SHOWING SLY
FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY.

TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL PCPN THIS WEEKEND
WITH PCPN TYPE BEING AN ISSUE. PLACEMENT SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TOO
AS THE LATEST NAM/GFS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE CWA AS OPPOSED TO THE CMC/ECM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS QPF
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT PREFER FAVORING CMC/ECM
SOLUTIONS GIVEN BOTH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE RUNS
FOCUSING ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA. EXPECT AREA OF SN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN KS TO EXPAND NWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN ALONG AXIS OF
DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/MOIST UPGLIDE ALONG 295K THETA SFC.
BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SRN
CWA THRU TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING AND ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

EVENT MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT A BIT MORE TRICKY THEN CONSIDERING THRUST OF
CAA SWEEPING IN WILL MAKE DETERMINING PCPN TYPE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH AMONGST THE CMC/ECM/GFS CRIT
THKNS...850MB TEMP....COBB DATA THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MORE OR LESS
FAVOR SOME SORT OF RA/FZRA/SN MIX OVER MOST OF THE CWA ALL THE WAY
THRU 12Z TUES MORNING WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASICALLY CONFIDED
TO THE NRN CWA.INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXCT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TIMING PCPN CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPS.

METEOGRAMS PER GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A
NON-DIURNAL EVENT TAKING SHAPE WITH FALLING TEMPS PROGGED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAKE BEST EFFORT THEN TO TIME
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BASED ON THIS. THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN LATE ENTRY
OF CAA...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


AS FOR TEMPS...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS MID WEEK WILL ALLOW A CHILLY AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION
CULMINATING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED
MORNING AND THURS MORNING. NICE REBOUND THOUGH PROGGED BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING MVFR AT KLNK/KOMA AS SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KLNK 18-24Z AND KOMA
19-01Z. WILL INTRODUCE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT KOFK
21-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280503
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE CONUS THIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CUTOFF AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS LEAVES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
POTENTIAL SNOW.

HOWEVER SHORTWAVE/ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS DEFINED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING SHARPER SHORTWAVE...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT EARTH-SHATTERING...
WHILE ECMWF BARELY SHOWS MUCH AT ALL. STILL EXPECT INDUCED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO COMMENCE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY WITH
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS OCCURRING BY NOON IN OUR SOUTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG INTERSTATE 80. LONGER DURATION AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE SOURCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW 18Z-06Z WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 80.

PERHAPS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN
STREAM ROTATES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN INDUCE FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING NORTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST
SNOWFALL AND A FARTHER NORTHWARD FETCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT BEFORE TROUGH SWINGS EAST BY 18Z OR SO. SO IN
TOTAL...WILL HAVE CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND A FEW TENTHS IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW EXITING WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT A QUICK RETURN TO LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AND SHARPENING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS NOTED BY
CONVERGING Q-VECTORS IN 700-300MB LAYER...AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT...WAITING FOR MORE POTENT
SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY OBVIOUSLY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE NOT WARMED
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING HOLD LOWS FROM
CRASHING. STILL EXPECT AN EVENING DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH COLDER READINGS NEAR ZERO IN SNOW-
COVERED WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S DESPITE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLOUDS/FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS INITIAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EXITING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASING WINDS/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE TEENS...OR PERHAPS LOWER NORTH. THEN STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD BREAK
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TUESDAY REMAINS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS WARM
AIR ALOFT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEETER AROUND
FREEZING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
OVERALL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR INTO THE
950-700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A TIME TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS COOLING AND HANGS ONTO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY AND ANY
FLUCTUATION IN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN ANY EVENT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ALL EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AND CLEARLY SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED
BY CHANGEOVER TIMING. WILL PLAY A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH
WOULD PAINT A STRIPE OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOST OF THAT CHANGES TO JUST RAIN...THEN
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS OKAY...WITH A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP IN
BETWEEN. WILL LIKELY KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITIVE SCENARIO IS MORE APPARENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A COLD DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AND DARE I SAY A WARMING TREND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING MVFR AT KLNK/KOMA AS SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KLNK 18-24Z AND KOMA
19-01Z. WILL INTRODUCE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT KOFK
21-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280503
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE CONUS THIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CUTOFF AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS LEAVES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
POTENTIAL SNOW.

HOWEVER SHORTWAVE/ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS DEFINED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING SHARPER SHORTWAVE...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT EARTH-SHATTERING...
WHILE ECMWF BARELY SHOWS MUCH AT ALL. STILL EXPECT INDUCED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO COMMENCE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY WITH
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS OCCURRING BY NOON IN OUR SOUTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG INTERSTATE 80. LONGER DURATION AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE SOURCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW 18Z-06Z WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 80.

PERHAPS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN
STREAM ROTATES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN INDUCE FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING NORTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST
SNOWFALL AND A FARTHER NORTHWARD FETCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT BEFORE TROUGH SWINGS EAST BY 18Z OR SO. SO IN
TOTAL...WILL HAVE CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND A FEW TENTHS IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW EXITING WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT A QUICK RETURN TO LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AND SHARPENING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS NOTED BY
CONVERGING Q-VECTORS IN 700-300MB LAYER...AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT...WAITING FOR MORE POTENT
SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY OBVIOUSLY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE NOT WARMED
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING HOLD LOWS FROM
CRASHING. STILL EXPECT AN EVENING DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH COLDER READINGS NEAR ZERO IN SNOW-
COVERED WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S DESPITE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLOUDS/FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS INITIAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EXITING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASING WINDS/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE TEENS...OR PERHAPS LOWER NORTH. THEN STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD BREAK
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TUESDAY REMAINS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS WARM
AIR ALOFT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEETER AROUND
FREEZING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
OVERALL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR INTO THE
950-700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A TIME TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS COOLING AND HANGS ONTO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY AND ANY
FLUCTUATION IN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN ANY EVENT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ALL EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AND CLEARLY SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED
BY CHANGEOVER TIMING. WILL PLAY A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH
WOULD PAINT A STRIPE OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOST OF THAT CHANGES TO JUST RAIN...THEN
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS OKAY...WITH A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP IN
BETWEEN. WILL LIKELY KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITIVE SCENARIO IS MORE APPARENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A COLD DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AND DARE I SAY A WARMING TREND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING MVFR AT KLNK/KOMA AS SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KLNK 18-24Z AND KOMA
19-01Z. WILL INTRODUCE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT KOFK
21-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280503
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE CONUS THIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CUTOFF AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS LEAVES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
POTENTIAL SNOW.

HOWEVER SHORTWAVE/ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS DEFINED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING SHARPER SHORTWAVE...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT EARTH-SHATTERING...
WHILE ECMWF BARELY SHOWS MUCH AT ALL. STILL EXPECT INDUCED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO COMMENCE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY WITH
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS OCCURRING BY NOON IN OUR SOUTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG INTERSTATE 80. LONGER DURATION AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE SOURCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW 18Z-06Z WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 80.

PERHAPS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN
STREAM ROTATES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN INDUCE FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING NORTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST
SNOWFALL AND A FARTHER NORTHWARD FETCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT BEFORE TROUGH SWINGS EAST BY 18Z OR SO. SO IN
TOTAL...WILL HAVE CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND A FEW TENTHS IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW EXITING WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT A QUICK RETURN TO LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AND SHARPENING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS NOTED BY
CONVERGING Q-VECTORS IN 700-300MB LAYER...AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT...WAITING FOR MORE POTENT
SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY OBVIOUSLY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE NOT WARMED
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING HOLD LOWS FROM
CRASHING. STILL EXPECT AN EVENING DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH COLDER READINGS NEAR ZERO IN SNOW-
COVERED WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S DESPITE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLOUDS/FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS INITIAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EXITING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASING WINDS/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE TEENS...OR PERHAPS LOWER NORTH. THEN STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD BREAK
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TUESDAY REMAINS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS WARM
AIR ALOFT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEETER AROUND
FREEZING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
OVERALL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR INTO THE
950-700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A TIME TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS COOLING AND HANGS ONTO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY AND ANY
FLUCTUATION IN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN ANY EVENT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ALL EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AND CLEARLY SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED
BY CHANGEOVER TIMING. WILL PLAY A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH
WOULD PAINT A STRIPE OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOST OF THAT CHANGES TO JUST RAIN...THEN
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS OKAY...WITH A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP IN
BETWEEN. WILL LIKELY KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITIVE SCENARIO IS MORE APPARENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A COLD DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AND DARE I SAY A WARMING TREND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING MVFR AT KLNK/KOMA AS SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KLNK 18-24Z AND KOMA
19-01Z. WILL INTRODUCE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT KOFK
21-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280503
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE CONUS THIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CUTOFF AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS LEAVES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
POTENTIAL SNOW.

HOWEVER SHORTWAVE/ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS DEFINED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING SHARPER SHORTWAVE...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT EARTH-SHATTERING...
WHILE ECMWF BARELY SHOWS MUCH AT ALL. STILL EXPECT INDUCED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO COMMENCE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY WITH
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS OCCURRING BY NOON IN OUR SOUTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG INTERSTATE 80. LONGER DURATION AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE SOURCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW 18Z-06Z WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 80.

PERHAPS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN
STREAM ROTATES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN INDUCE FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING NORTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST
SNOWFALL AND A FARTHER NORTHWARD FETCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT BEFORE TROUGH SWINGS EAST BY 18Z OR SO. SO IN
TOTAL...WILL HAVE CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND A FEW TENTHS IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW EXITING WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT A QUICK RETURN TO LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AND SHARPENING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS NOTED BY
CONVERGING Q-VECTORS IN 700-300MB LAYER...AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT...WAITING FOR MORE POTENT
SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY OBVIOUSLY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE NOT WARMED
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING HOLD LOWS FROM
CRASHING. STILL EXPECT AN EVENING DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH COLDER READINGS NEAR ZERO IN SNOW-
COVERED WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S DESPITE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLOUDS/FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS INITIAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EXITING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASING WINDS/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE TEENS...OR PERHAPS LOWER NORTH. THEN STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD BREAK
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TUESDAY REMAINS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS WARM
AIR ALOFT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEETER AROUND
FREEZING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
OVERALL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR INTO THE
950-700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A TIME TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS COOLING AND HANGS ONTO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY AND ANY
FLUCTUATION IN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN ANY EVENT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ALL EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AND CLEARLY SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED
BY CHANGEOVER TIMING. WILL PLAY A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH
WOULD PAINT A STRIPE OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOST OF THAT CHANGES TO JUST RAIN...THEN
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS OKAY...WITH A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP IN
BETWEEN. WILL LIKELY KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITIVE SCENARIO IS MORE APPARENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A COLD DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AND DARE I SAY A WARMING TREND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING MVFR AT KLNK/KOMA AS SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KLNK 18-24Z AND KOMA
19-01Z. WILL INTRODUCE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT KOFK
21-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
504 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE CONUS THIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CUTOFF AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS LEAVES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
POTENTIAL SNOW.

HOWEVER SHORTWAVE/ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS DEFINED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING SHARPER SHORTWAVE...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT EARTH-SHATTERING...
WHILE ECMWF BARELY SHOWS MUCH AT ALL. STILL EXPECT INDUCED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO COMMENCE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY WITH
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS OCCURRING BY NOON IN OUR SOUTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG INTERSTATE 80. LONGER DURATION AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE SOURCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW 18Z-06Z WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 80.

PERHAPS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN
STREAM ROTATES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN INDUCE FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING NORTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST
SNOWFALL AND A FARTHER NORTHWARD FETCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT BEFORE TROUGH SWINGS EAST BY 18Z OR SO. SO IN
TOTAL...WILL HAVE CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND A FEW TENTHS IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW EXITING WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT A QUICK RETURN TO LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AND SHARPENING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS NOTED BY
CONVERGING Q-VECTORS IN 700-300MB LAYER...AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT...WAITING FOR MORE POTENT
SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY OBVIOUSLY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE NOT WARMED
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING HOLD LOWS FROM
CRASHING. STILL EXPECT AN EVENING DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH COLDER READINGS NEAR ZERO IN SNOW-
COVERED WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S DESPITE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLOUDS/FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS INITIAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EXITING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASING WINDS/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE TEENS...OR PERHAPS LOWER NORTH. THEN STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD BREAK
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TUESDAY REMAINS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS WARM
AIR ALOFT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEETER AROUND
FREEZING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
OVERALL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR INTO THE
950-700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A TIME TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS COOLING AND HANGS ONTO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY AND ANY
FLUCTUATION IN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN ANY EVENT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ALL EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AND CLEARLY SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED
BY CHANGEOVER TIMING. WILL PLAY A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH
WOULD PAINT A STRIPE OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOST OF THAT CHANGES TO JUST RAIN...THEN
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS OKAY...WITH A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP IN
BETWEEN. WILL LIKELY KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITIVE SCENARIO IS MORE APPARENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A COLD DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AND DARE I SAY A WARMING TREND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID CLOUDS.
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITION AT KLNK BY 13Z WITH SNOW CHANCES
INCREASING BY 16-19Z...WITH PREVAILING SNOW DEVELOPING BY 19Z.
SNOW CHANCES LIKELY NOT DEVELOPING AT KOMA UNTIL ABOUT 19Z. NOT
SURE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO KOFK...THUS LEFT THAT LOCATION DRY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
504 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE CONUS THIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CUTOFF AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS LEAVES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
POTENTIAL SNOW.

HOWEVER SHORTWAVE/ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS DEFINED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING SHARPER SHORTWAVE...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT EARTH-SHATTERING...
WHILE ECMWF BARELY SHOWS MUCH AT ALL. STILL EXPECT INDUCED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO COMMENCE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY WITH
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS OCCURRING BY NOON IN OUR SOUTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG INTERSTATE 80. LONGER DURATION AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE SOURCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW 18Z-06Z WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 80.

PERHAPS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN
STREAM ROTATES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN INDUCE FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING NORTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST
SNOWFALL AND A FARTHER NORTHWARD FETCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT BEFORE TROUGH SWINGS EAST BY 18Z OR SO. SO IN
TOTAL...WILL HAVE CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND A FEW TENTHS IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW EXITING WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT A QUICK RETURN TO LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AND SHARPENING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS NOTED BY
CONVERGING Q-VECTORS IN 700-300MB LAYER...AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT...WAITING FOR MORE POTENT
SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY OBVIOUSLY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE NOT WARMED
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING HOLD LOWS FROM
CRASHING. STILL EXPECT AN EVENING DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH COLDER READINGS NEAR ZERO IN SNOW-
COVERED WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S DESPITE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLOUDS/FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS INITIAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EXITING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASING WINDS/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE TEENS...OR PERHAPS LOWER NORTH. THEN STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD BREAK
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TUESDAY REMAINS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS WARM
AIR ALOFT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEETER AROUND
FREEZING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
OVERALL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR INTO THE
950-700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A TIME TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS COOLING AND HANGS ONTO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY AND ANY
FLUCTUATION IN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN ANY EVENT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ALL EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AND CLEARLY SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED
BY CHANGEOVER TIMING. WILL PLAY A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH
WOULD PAINT A STRIPE OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOST OF THAT CHANGES TO JUST RAIN...THEN
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS OKAY...WITH A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP IN
BETWEEN. WILL LIKELY KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITIVE SCENARIO IS MORE APPARENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A COLD DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AND DARE I SAY A WARMING TREND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID CLOUDS.
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITION AT KLNK BY 13Z WITH SNOW CHANCES
INCREASING BY 16-19Z...WITH PREVAILING SNOW DEVELOPING BY 19Z.
SNOW CHANCES LIKELY NOT DEVELOPING AT KOMA UNTIL ABOUT 19Z. NOT
SURE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO KOFK...THUS LEFT THAT LOCATION DRY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
504 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE CONUS THIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CUTOFF AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS LEAVES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
POTENTIAL SNOW.

HOWEVER SHORTWAVE/ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS DEFINED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING SHARPER SHORTWAVE...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT EARTH-SHATTERING...
WHILE ECMWF BARELY SHOWS MUCH AT ALL. STILL EXPECT INDUCED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO COMMENCE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY WITH
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS OCCURRING BY NOON IN OUR SOUTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG INTERSTATE 80. LONGER DURATION AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE SOURCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW 18Z-06Z WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 80.

PERHAPS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN
STREAM ROTATES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN INDUCE FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING NORTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST
SNOWFALL AND A FARTHER NORTHWARD FETCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT BEFORE TROUGH SWINGS EAST BY 18Z OR SO. SO IN
TOTAL...WILL HAVE CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND A FEW TENTHS IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW EXITING WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT A QUICK RETURN TO LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AND SHARPENING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS NOTED BY
CONVERGING Q-VECTORS IN 700-300MB LAYER...AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT...WAITING FOR MORE POTENT
SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY OBVIOUSLY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE NOT WARMED
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING HOLD LOWS FROM
CRASHING. STILL EXPECT AN EVENING DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH COLDER READINGS NEAR ZERO IN SNOW-
COVERED WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S DESPITE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLOUDS/FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS INITIAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EXITING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASING WINDS/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE TEENS...OR PERHAPS LOWER NORTH. THEN STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD BREAK
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TUESDAY REMAINS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS WARM
AIR ALOFT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEETER AROUND
FREEZING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
OVERALL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR INTO THE
950-700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A TIME TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS COOLING AND HANGS ONTO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY AND ANY
FLUCTUATION IN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN ANY EVENT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ALL EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AND CLEARLY SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED
BY CHANGEOVER TIMING. WILL PLAY A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH
WOULD PAINT A STRIPE OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOST OF THAT CHANGES TO JUST RAIN...THEN
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS OKAY...WITH A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP IN
BETWEEN. WILL LIKELY KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITIVE SCENARIO IS MORE APPARENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A COLD DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AND DARE I SAY A WARMING TREND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID CLOUDS.
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITION AT KLNK BY 13Z WITH SNOW CHANCES
INCREASING BY 16-19Z...WITH PREVAILING SNOW DEVELOPING BY 19Z.
SNOW CHANCES LIKELY NOT DEVELOPING AT KOMA UNTIL ABOUT 19Z. NOT
SURE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO KOFK...THUS LEFT THAT LOCATION DRY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE CONUS THIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CUTOFF AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS LEAVES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
POTENTIAL SNOW.

HOWEVER SHORTWAVE/ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS DEFINED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING SHARPER SHORTWAVE...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT EARTH-SHATTERING...
WHILE ECMWF BARELY SHOWS MUCH AT ALL. STILL EXPECT INDUCED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO COMMENCE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY WITH
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS OCCURRING BY NOON IN OUR SOUTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG INTERSTATE 80. LONGER DURATION AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE SOURCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW 18Z-06Z WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 80.

PERHAPS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN
STREAM ROTATES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN INDUCE FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING NORTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST
SNOWFALL AND A FARTHER NORTHWARD FETCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT BEFORE TROUGH SWINGS EAST BY 18Z OR SO. SO IN
TOTAL...WILL HAVE CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND A FEW TENTHS IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW EXITING WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT A QUICK RETURN TO LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AND SHARPENING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS NOTED BY
CONVERGING Q-VECTORS IN 700-300MB LAYER...AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT...WAITING FOR MORE POTENT
SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY OBVIOUSLY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE NOT WARMED
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING HOLD LOWS FROM
CRASHING. STILL EXPECT AN EVENING DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH COLDER READINGS NEAR ZERO IN SNOW-
COVERED WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S DESPITE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLOUDS/FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS INITIAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EXITING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASING WINDS/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE TEENS...OR PERHAPS LOWER NORTH. THEN STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD BREAK
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TUESDAY REMAINS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS WARM
AIR ALOFT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEETER AROUND
FREEZING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
OVERALL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR INTO THE
950-700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A TIME TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS COOLING AND HANGS ONTO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY AND ANY
FLUCTUATION IN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN ANY EVENT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ALL EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AND CLEARLY SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED
BY CHANGEOVER TIMING. WILL PLAY A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH
WOULD PAINT A STRIPE OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOST OF THAT CHANGES TO JUST RAIN...THEN
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS OKAY...WITH A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP IN
BETWEEN. WILL LIKELY KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITIVE SCENARIO IS MORE APPARENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A COLD DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AND DARE I SAY A WARMING TREND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KLNK COULD BE IN MVFR CATEGORY BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. DO NOT THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE AT THE SITES BY 18Z SAT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE CONUS THIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CUTOFF AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS LEAVES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
POTENTIAL SNOW.

HOWEVER SHORTWAVE/ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS DEFINED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS PROBABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING SHARPER SHORTWAVE...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT EARTH-SHATTERING...
WHILE ECMWF BARELY SHOWS MUCH AT ALL. STILL EXPECT INDUCED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO COMMENCE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY WITH
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS OCCURRING BY NOON IN OUR SOUTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG INTERSTATE 80. LONGER DURATION AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE SOURCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW 18Z-06Z WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 80.

PERHAPS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN
STREAM ROTATES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN INDUCE FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY...SPREADING NORTH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST
SNOWFALL AND A FARTHER NORTHWARD FETCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT BEFORE TROUGH SWINGS EAST BY 18Z OR SO. SO IN
TOTAL...WILL HAVE CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND A FEW TENTHS IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW EXITING WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT A QUICK RETURN TO LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD AND SHARPENING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS NOTED BY
CONVERGING Q-VECTORS IN 700-300MB LAYER...AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT...WAITING FOR MORE POTENT
SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY OBVIOUSLY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE NOT WARMED
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING HOLD LOWS FROM
CRASHING. STILL EXPECT AN EVENING DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH COLDER READINGS NEAR ZERO IN SNOW-
COVERED WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S DESPITE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLOUDS/FLOW KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS INITIAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EXITING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASING WINDS/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE TEENS...OR PERHAPS LOWER NORTH. THEN STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD BREAK
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TUESDAY REMAINS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS WARM
AIR ALOFT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEETER AROUND
FREEZING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
OVERALL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR INTO THE
950-700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A TIME TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS COOLING AND HANGS ONTO ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY AND ANY
FLUCTUATION IN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN ANY EVENT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ALL EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AND CLEARLY SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED
BY CHANGEOVER TIMING. WILL PLAY A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH
WOULD PAINT A STRIPE OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 80
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOST OF THAT CHANGES TO JUST RAIN...THEN
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS OKAY...WITH A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP IN
BETWEEN. WILL LIKELY KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL A
MORE DEFINITIVE SCENARIO IS MORE APPARENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A COLD DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AND DARE I SAY A WARMING TREND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KLNK COULD BE IN MVFR CATEGORY BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. DO NOT THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE AT THE SITES BY 18Z SAT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271748
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXHIBITED A LARGE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SHRTWV WAS SEEN OVER WY /THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME HIGH CI TO THE SRN CWA TODAY/...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ...WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO
SHIFT SEWD TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE VERY LIMITED
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACRS NEW SNOW AREAS OF W-CNTRL IA. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NE
CWA.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FM THE
SE...AND THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HEIGHT RISES OF 40 TO 60 M
AT H5 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PAC NW SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE REGION BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY ON SAT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATEST SHRT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION
THOUGH DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. WE FEEL THE EC LIFTS PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT PREFERRING A SLOWER
ONSET TO -SN. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN ON SAT NIGHT AND
LEADS TO ENHANCED H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT BY SUN MRNG...THUS
OVER-DEVELOPS QPF. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE NEB/SW IA LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVNG
WITH OCCASIONAL -SN THROUGH SUN MRNG BEFORE THE CDFNT MOVS THRU
AND PRECIP SHIFTS EWD. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-3 INCHES
RIGHT ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER WITH 1 INCH ALONG I80 AND LITTLE IF
ANY IN NE NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SW US SHRTWV TROUGH CLOSES OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EJECTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OPEN TROUGH FOR MON/TUE/WED. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWV TROUGHS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF MON SHOULD
BE DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY AFTN OVER
CNTRL TO NE NEB...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR PRECIP ON MON NIGHT THOUGH AS STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE CTNRL PLAINS AND LEADS TO
GOOD NET ISENTROPIC VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILE...ALL DO INDICATE THAT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. WE WILL CONT WITH A
MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN THE SOUTH...FZRA/IP IN THE CNTRL AND IP/SN
IN THE NORTH...BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE SURFACE LIFTS SHIFTS E ON TUE WE SHOULD
SEE COLDER AIR RUSH IN SWITCHING THINGS OVER TO SN TO END AT
LEAST. WE WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED ACTUALLY AS
THE 00Z EC IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KLNK COULD BE IN MVFR CATEGORY BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. DO NOT THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE AT THE SITES BY 18Z SAT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271748
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXHIBITED A LARGE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SHRTWV WAS SEEN OVER WY /THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME HIGH CI TO THE SRN CWA TODAY/...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ...WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO
SHIFT SEWD TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE VERY LIMITED
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACRS NEW SNOW AREAS OF W-CNTRL IA. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NE
CWA.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FM THE
SE...AND THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HEIGHT RISES OF 40 TO 60 M
AT H5 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PAC NW SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE REGION BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY ON SAT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATEST SHRT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION
THOUGH DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. WE FEEL THE EC LIFTS PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT PREFERRING A SLOWER
ONSET TO -SN. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN ON SAT NIGHT AND
LEADS TO ENHANCED H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT BY SUN MRNG...THUS
OVER-DEVELOPS QPF. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE NEB/SW IA LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVNG
WITH OCCASIONAL -SN THROUGH SUN MRNG BEFORE THE CDFNT MOVS THRU
AND PRECIP SHIFTS EWD. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-3 INCHES
RIGHT ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER WITH 1 INCH ALONG I80 AND LITTLE IF
ANY IN NE NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SW US SHRTWV TROUGH CLOSES OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EJECTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OPEN TROUGH FOR MON/TUE/WED. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWV TROUGHS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF MON SHOULD
BE DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY AFTN OVER
CNTRL TO NE NEB...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR PRECIP ON MON NIGHT THOUGH AS STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE CTNRL PLAINS AND LEADS TO
GOOD NET ISENTROPIC VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILE...ALL DO INDICATE THAT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. WE WILL CONT WITH A
MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN THE SOUTH...FZRA/IP IN THE CNTRL AND IP/SN
IN THE NORTH...BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE SURFACE LIFTS SHIFTS E ON TUE WE SHOULD
SEE COLDER AIR RUSH IN SWITCHING THINGS OVER TO SN TO END AT
LEAST. WE WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED ACTUALLY AS
THE 00Z EC IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KLNK COULD BE IN MVFR CATEGORY BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. DO NOT THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE AT THE SITES BY 18Z SAT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271748
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXHIBITED A LARGE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SHRTWV WAS SEEN OVER WY /THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME HIGH CI TO THE SRN CWA TODAY/...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ...WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO
SHIFT SEWD TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE VERY LIMITED
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACRS NEW SNOW AREAS OF W-CNTRL IA. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NE
CWA.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FM THE
SE...AND THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HEIGHT RISES OF 40 TO 60 M
AT H5 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PAC NW SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE REGION BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY ON SAT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATEST SHRT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION
THOUGH DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. WE FEEL THE EC LIFTS PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT PREFERRING A SLOWER
ONSET TO -SN. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN ON SAT NIGHT AND
LEADS TO ENHANCED H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT BY SUN MRNG...THUS
OVER-DEVELOPS QPF. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE NEB/SW IA LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVNG
WITH OCCASIONAL -SN THROUGH SUN MRNG BEFORE THE CDFNT MOVS THRU
AND PRECIP SHIFTS EWD. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-3 INCHES
RIGHT ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER WITH 1 INCH ALONG I80 AND LITTLE IF
ANY IN NE NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SW US SHRTWV TROUGH CLOSES OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EJECTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OPEN TROUGH FOR MON/TUE/WED. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWV TROUGHS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF MON SHOULD
BE DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY AFTN OVER
CNTRL TO NE NEB...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR PRECIP ON MON NIGHT THOUGH AS STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE CTNRL PLAINS AND LEADS TO
GOOD NET ISENTROPIC VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILE...ALL DO INDICATE THAT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. WE WILL CONT WITH A
MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN THE SOUTH...FZRA/IP IN THE CNTRL AND IP/SN
IN THE NORTH...BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE SURFACE LIFTS SHIFTS E ON TUE WE SHOULD
SEE COLDER AIR RUSH IN SWITCHING THINGS OVER TO SN TO END AT
LEAST. WE WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED ACTUALLY AS
THE 00Z EC IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KLNK COULD BE IN MVFR CATEGORY BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. DO NOT THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE AT THE SITES BY 18Z SAT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271748
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXHIBITED A LARGE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SHRTWV WAS SEEN OVER WY /THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME HIGH CI TO THE SRN CWA TODAY/...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ...WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO
SHIFT SEWD TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE VERY LIMITED
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACRS NEW SNOW AREAS OF W-CNTRL IA. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NE
CWA.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FM THE
SE...AND THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HEIGHT RISES OF 40 TO 60 M
AT H5 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PAC NW SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE REGION BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY ON SAT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATEST SHRT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION
THOUGH DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. WE FEEL THE EC LIFTS PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT PREFERRING A SLOWER
ONSET TO -SN. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN ON SAT NIGHT AND
LEADS TO ENHANCED H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT BY SUN MRNG...THUS
OVER-DEVELOPS QPF. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE NEB/SW IA LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVNG
WITH OCCASIONAL -SN THROUGH SUN MRNG BEFORE THE CDFNT MOVS THRU
AND PRECIP SHIFTS EWD. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-3 INCHES
RIGHT ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER WITH 1 INCH ALONG I80 AND LITTLE IF
ANY IN NE NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SW US SHRTWV TROUGH CLOSES OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EJECTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OPEN TROUGH FOR MON/TUE/WED. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWV TROUGHS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF MON SHOULD
BE DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY AFTN OVER
CNTRL TO NE NEB...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR PRECIP ON MON NIGHT THOUGH AS STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE CTNRL PLAINS AND LEADS TO
GOOD NET ISENTROPIC VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILE...ALL DO INDICATE THAT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. WE WILL CONT WITH A
MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN THE SOUTH...FZRA/IP IN THE CNTRL AND IP/SN
IN THE NORTH...BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE SURFACE LIFTS SHIFTS E ON TUE WE SHOULD
SEE COLDER AIR RUSH IN SWITCHING THINGS OVER TO SN TO END AT
LEAST. WE WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED ACTUALLY AS
THE 00Z EC IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KLNK COULD BE IN MVFR CATEGORY BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. DO NOT THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE AT THE SITES BY 18Z SAT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271107
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
507 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXHIBITED A LARGE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SHRTWV WAS SEEN OVER WY /THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME HIGH CI TO THE SRN CWA TODAY/...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ...WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO
SHIFT SEWD TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE VERY LIMITED
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACRS NEW SNOW AREAS OF W-CNTRL IA. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NE
CWA.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FM THE
SE...AND THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HEIGHT RISES OF 40 TO 60 M
AT H5 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PAC NW SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE REGION BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY ON SAT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATEST SHRT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION
THOUGH DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. WE FEEL THE EC LIFTS PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT PREFERRING A SLOWER
ONSET TO -SN. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN ON SAT NIGHT AND
LEADS TO ENHANCED H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT BY SUN MRNG...THUS
OVER-DEVELOPS QPF. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE NEB/SW IA LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVNG
WITH OCCASIONAL -SN THROUGH SUN MRNG BEFORE THE CDFNT MOVS THRU
AND PRECIP SHIFTS EWD. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-3 INCHES
RIGHT ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER WITH 1 INCH ALONG I80 AND LITTLE IF
ANY IN NE NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SW US SHRTWV TROUGH CLOSES OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EJECTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OPEN TROUGH FOR MON/TUE/WED. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWV TROUGHS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF MON SHOULD
BE DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY AFTN OVER
CNTRL TO NE NEB...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR PRECIP ON MON NIGHT THOUGH AS STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE CTNRL PLAINS AND LEADS TO
GOOD NET ISENTROPIC VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILE...ALL DO INDICATE THAT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. WE WILL CONT WITH A
MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN THE SOUTH...FZRA/IP IN THE CNTRL AND IP/SN
IN THE NORTH...BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE SURFACE LIFTS SHIFTS E ON TUE WE SHOULD
SEE COLDER AIR RUSH IN SWITCHING THINGS OVER TO SN TO END AT
LEAST. WE WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED ACTUALLY AS
THE 00Z EC IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271107
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
507 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXHIBITED A LARGE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SHRTWV WAS SEEN OVER WY /THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME HIGH CI TO THE SRN CWA TODAY/...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ...WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO
SHIFT SEWD TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE VERY LIMITED
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACRS NEW SNOW AREAS OF W-CNTRL IA. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NE
CWA.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FM THE
SE...AND THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HEIGHT RISES OF 40 TO 60 M
AT H5 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PAC NW SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE REGION BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY ON SAT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATEST SHRT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION
THOUGH DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. WE FEEL THE EC LIFTS PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT PREFERRING A SLOWER
ONSET TO -SN. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN ON SAT NIGHT AND
LEADS TO ENHANCED H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT BY SUN MRNG...THUS
OVER-DEVELOPS QPF. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE NEB/SW IA LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVNG
WITH OCCASIONAL -SN THROUGH SUN MRNG BEFORE THE CDFNT MOVS THRU
AND PRECIP SHIFTS EWD. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-3 INCHES
RIGHT ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER WITH 1 INCH ALONG I80 AND LITTLE IF
ANY IN NE NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SW US SHRTWV TROUGH CLOSES OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EJECTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OPEN TROUGH FOR MON/TUE/WED. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWV TROUGHS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF MON SHOULD
BE DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY AFTN OVER
CNTRL TO NE NEB...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR PRECIP ON MON NIGHT THOUGH AS STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE CTNRL PLAINS AND LEADS TO
GOOD NET ISENTROPIC VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILE...ALL DO INDICATE THAT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. WE WILL CONT WITH A
MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN THE SOUTH...FZRA/IP IN THE CNTRL AND IP/SN
IN THE NORTH...BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE SURFACE LIFTS SHIFTS E ON TUE WE SHOULD
SEE COLDER AIR RUSH IN SWITCHING THINGS OVER TO SN TO END AT
LEAST. WE WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED ACTUALLY AS
THE 00Z EC IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270903
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXHIBITED A LARGE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SHRTWV WAS SEEN OVER WY /THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME HIGH CI TO THE SRN CWA TODAY/...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ...WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO
SHIFT SEWD TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE VERY LIMITED
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACRS NEW SNOW AREAS OF W-CNTRL IA. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NE
CWA.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FM THE
SE...AND THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HEIGHT RISES OF 40 TO 60 M
AT H5 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PAC NW SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE REGION BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY ON SAT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATEST SHRT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION
THOUGH DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. WE FEEL THE EC LIFTS PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT PREFERRING A SLOWER
ONSET TO -SN. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN ON SAT NIGHT AND
LEADS TO ENHANCED H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT BY SUN MRNG...THUS
OVER-DEVELOPS QPF. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE NEB/SW IA LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVNG
WITH OCCASIONAL -SN THROUGH SUN MRNG BEFORE THE CDFNT MOVS THRU
AND PRECIP SHIFTS EWD. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-3 INCHES
RIGHT ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER WITH 1 INCH ALONG I80 AND LITTLE IF
ANY IN NE NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SW US SHRTWV TROUGH CLOSES OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EJECTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OPEN TROUGH FOR MON/TUE/WED. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWV TROUGHS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF MON SHOULD
BE DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY AFTN OVER
CNTRL TO NE NEB...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR PRECIP ON MON NIGHT THOUGH AS STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE CTNRL PLAINS AND LEADS TO
GOOD NET ISENTROPIC VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILE...ALL DO INDICATE THAT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. WE WILL CONT WITH A
MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN THE SOUTH...FZRA/IP IN THE CNTRL AND IP/SN
IN THE NORTH...BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE SURFACE LIFTS SHIFTS E ON TUE WE SHOULD
SEE COLDER AIR RUSH IN SWITCHING THINGS OVER TO SN TO END AT
LEAST. WE WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED ACTUALLY AS
THE 00Z EC IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270903
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXHIBITED A LARGE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SHRTWV WAS SEEN OVER WY /THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME HIGH CI TO THE SRN CWA TODAY/...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ...WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO
SHIFT SEWD TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE VERY LIMITED
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACRS NEW SNOW AREAS OF W-CNTRL IA. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NE
CWA.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FM THE
SE...AND THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HEIGHT RISES OF 40 TO 60 M
AT H5 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PAC NW SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE REGION BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY ON SAT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATEST SHRT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION
THOUGH DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. WE FEEL THE EC LIFTS PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT PREFERRING A SLOWER
ONSET TO -SN. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN ON SAT NIGHT AND
LEADS TO ENHANCED H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT BY SUN MRNG...THUS
OVER-DEVELOPS QPF. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE NEB/SW IA LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVNG
WITH OCCASIONAL -SN THROUGH SUN MRNG BEFORE THE CDFNT MOVS THRU
AND PRECIP SHIFTS EWD. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-3 INCHES
RIGHT ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER WITH 1 INCH ALONG I80 AND LITTLE IF
ANY IN NE NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SW US SHRTWV TROUGH CLOSES OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EJECTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OPEN TROUGH FOR MON/TUE/WED. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWV TROUGHS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF MON SHOULD
BE DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY AFTN OVER
CNTRL TO NE NEB...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR PRECIP ON MON NIGHT THOUGH AS STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE CTNRL PLAINS AND LEADS TO
GOOD NET ISENTROPIC VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILE...ALL DO INDICATE THAT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. WE WILL CONT WITH A
MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN THE SOUTH...FZRA/IP IN THE CNTRL AND IP/SN
IN THE NORTH...BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE SURFACE LIFTS SHIFTS E ON TUE WE SHOULD
SEE COLDER AIR RUSH IN SWITCHING THINGS OVER TO SN TO END AT
LEAST. WE WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED ACTUALLY AS
THE 00Z EC IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 270520
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270520
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 270520
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270520
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 262320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 262320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 262320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262040
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262040
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 261721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 261721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
513 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SC AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FM LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. THIS
MAY GO BKN AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTN THAT COULD BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THESE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN WITH
GENERALLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
513 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SC AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FM LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. THIS
MAY GO BKN AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTN THAT COULD BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THESE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN WITH
GENERALLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 261113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
513 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SC AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FM LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. THIS
MAY GO BKN AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTN THAT COULD BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THESE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN WITH
GENERALLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
513 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SC AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FM LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. THIS
MAY GO BKN AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTN THAT COULD BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THESE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN WITH
GENERALLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities