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000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272014
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SITES SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS/VIS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT TO THE AREAS OF KOFK/KOMA AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT DID MAKE A BEST GUESS FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO AFFECT KOFK/KOMA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LEFT
KLNK DRY FOR NOW WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ITS VICINITY. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
KOFK BY MID/LATE MORNING AND SHOULD JUST START TO AFFECT KLNK/KOMA
BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272014
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SITES SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS/VIS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT TO THE AREAS OF KOFK/KOMA AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT DID MAKE A BEST GUESS FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO AFFECT KOFK/KOMA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LEFT
KLNK DRY FOR NOW WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ITS VICINITY. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
KOFK BY MID/LATE MORNING AND SHOULD JUST START TO AFFECT KLNK/KOMA
BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SITES SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS/VIS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT TO THE AREAS OF KOFK/KOMA AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT DID MAKE A BEST GUESS FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO AFFECT KOFK/KOMA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LEFT
KLNK DRY FOR NOW WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ITS VICINITY. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
KOFK BY MID/LATE MORNING AND SHOULD JUST START TO AFFECT KLNK/KOMA
BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SITES SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS/VIS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT TO THE AREAS OF KOFK/KOMA AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT DID MAKE A BEST GUESS FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO AFFECT KOFK/KOMA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LEFT
KLNK DRY FOR NOW WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ITS VICINITY. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
KOFK BY MID/LATE MORNING AND SHOULD JUST START TO AFFECT KLNK/KOMA
BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271100
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANGE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW
BAND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISBY EXTENDS ACROSS NE NEB AND IS IMPACTING
KOFK...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH VFR CONDS BY
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS LIKELY AT KOFK/KLNK WITH SOME SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS /AOA FLO120 FT/ FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF RA
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE
TO LOW CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271100
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANGE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW
BAND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISBY EXTENDS ACROSS NE NEB AND IS IMPACTING
KOFK...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH VFR CONDS BY
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS LIKELY AT KOFK/KLNK WITH SOME SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS /AOA FLO120 FT/ FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF RA
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE
TO LOW CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271100
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANGE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW
BAND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISBY EXTENDS ACROSS NE NEB AND IS IMPACTING
KOFK...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH VFR CONDS BY
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS LIKELY AT KOFK/KLNK WITH SOME SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS /AOA FLO120 FT/ FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF RA
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE
TO LOW CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271100
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANGE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW
BAND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISBY EXTENDS ACROSS NE NEB AND IS IMPACTING
KOFK...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH VFR CONDS BY
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS LIKELY AT KOFK/KLNK WITH SOME SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS /AOA FLO120 FT/ FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF RA
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE
TO LOW CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANGE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER
BY 17-20Z. CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COULD AFFECT THE
KOFK TAF SITE 07-09Z. THEN CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SHOULD MOVE IN LATER ON MONDAY...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY KOFK
17-21Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
KLNK/KOFK AT THIS TIME.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANGE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER
BY 17-20Z. CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COULD AFFECT THE
KOFK TAF SITE 07-09Z. THEN CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SHOULD MOVE IN LATER ON MONDAY...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY KOFK
17-21Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
KLNK/KOFK AT THIS TIME.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 270440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. OVERALL...ITS
MARGINAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW
CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR COUPLE OF COUNTIES. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
BEFORE THE OFFICIAL EXPIRATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HIGH
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE REGION...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS.  A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER
BY 17-20Z. CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COULD AFFECT THE
KOFK TAF SITE 07-09Z. THEN CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SHOULD MOVE IN LATER ON MONDAY...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY KOFK
17-21Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
KLNK/KOFK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 270440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. OVERALL...ITS
MARGINAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW
CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR COUPLE OF COUNTIES. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
BEFORE THE OFFICIAL EXPIRATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HIGH
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE REGION...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS.  A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER
BY 17-20Z. CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COULD AFFECT THE
KOFK TAF SITE 07-09Z. THEN CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SHOULD MOVE IN LATER ON MONDAY...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY KOFK
17-21Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
KLNK/KOFK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262317
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. OVERALL...ITS
MARGINAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW
CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR COUPLE OF COUNTIES. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
BEFORE THE OFFICIAL EXPIRATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HIGH
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE REGION...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS.  A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
INITIALLY. WINDS DO INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER BY 17-20Z. MAY
ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KOFK BY ABOUT 18-22Z...BUT
TOO FAR OUT TO PREDICT WITH ANY CERTAINTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262317
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. OVERALL...ITS
MARGINAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW
CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR COUPLE OF COUNTIES. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
BEFORE THE OFFICIAL EXPIRATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HIGH
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE REGION...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS.  A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
INITIALLY. WINDS DO INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER BY 17-20Z. MAY
ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KOFK BY ABOUT 18-22Z...BUT
TOO FAR OUT TO PREDICT WITH ANY CERTAINTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 262317
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. OVERALL...ITS
MARGINAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW
CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR COUPLE OF COUNTIES. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
BEFORE THE OFFICIAL EXPIRATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HIGH
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE REGION...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS.  A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
INITIALLY. WINDS DO INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER BY 17-20Z. MAY
ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KOFK BY ABOUT 18-22Z...BUT
TOO FAR OUT TO PREDICT WITH ANY CERTAINTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 262036
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HIGH
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE REGION...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS.  A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262036
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HIGH
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE REGION...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS.  A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 262036
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HIGH
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE REGION...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS.  A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262036
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HIGH
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE REGION...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS.  A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 261723
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TEMPERATURES AND AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME RELIEF ARRIVES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.

HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS
LATEST FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDEX THERE ALSO CLIMBING TO 105
DEGREES OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING WEST AND
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS CHANCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ALTHOUGH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261723
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TEMPERATURES AND AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME RELIEF ARRIVES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.

HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS
LATEST FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDEX THERE ALSO CLIMBING TO 105
DEGREES OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING WEST AND
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS CHANCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ALTHOUGH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TEMPERATURES AND AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME RELIEF ARRIVES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.

HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS
LATEST FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDEX THERE ALSO CLIMBING TO 105
DEGREES OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING WEST AND
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS CHANCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ALTHOUGH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A MIX OF IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TSRA THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH FOG AT KOFK. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KOFK...BUT THE IFR CIGS WILL CONT FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...WITH MVFR CIGS MOVG INTO KLNK/KOMA. BY 16-17Z WE WILL
SEE CEILINGS SCT WITH VFR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MRNG BECOME
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TEMPERATURES AND AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME RELIEF ARRIVES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.

HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS
LATEST FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDEX THERE ALSO CLIMBING TO 105
DEGREES OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING WEST AND
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS CHANCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ALTHOUGH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A MIX OF IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TSRA THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH FOG AT KOFK. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KOFK...BUT THE IFR CIGS WILL CONT FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...WITH MVFR CIGS MOVG INTO KLNK/KOMA. BY 16-17Z WE WILL
SEE CEILINGS SCT WITH VFR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MRNG BECOME
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 260809
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TEMPERATURES AND AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME RELIEF ARRIVES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.

HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS
LATEST FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDEX THERE ALSO CLIMBING TO 105
DEGREES OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING WEST AND
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS CHANCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ALTHOUGH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF AN ISO SHRA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KOMA...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM UNTIL WE START TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY OCCUR TOWARD MRNG
AT ESPECIALLY KOFK. VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUN
WITH A FEW CU AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260809
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TEMPERATURES AND AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME RELIEF ARRIVES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.

HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS
LATEST FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDEX THERE ALSO CLIMBING TO 105
DEGREES OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING WEST AND
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS CHANCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ALTHOUGH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF AN ISO SHRA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KOMA...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM UNTIL WE START TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY OCCUR TOWARD MRNG
AT ESPECIALLY KOFK. VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUN
WITH A FEW CU AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 260809
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TEMPERATURES AND AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME RELIEF ARRIVES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.

HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS
LATEST FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDEX THERE ALSO CLIMBING TO 105
DEGREES OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING WEST AND
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS CHANCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ALTHOUGH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF AN ISO SHRA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KOMA...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM UNTIL WE START TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY OCCUR TOWARD MRNG
AT ESPECIALLY KOFK. VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUN
WITH A FEW CU AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 260809
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TEMPERATURES AND AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME RELIEF ARRIVES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.

HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS
LATEST FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDEX THERE ALSO CLIMBING TO 105
DEGREES OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING WEST AND
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS CHANCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ALTHOUGH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF AN ISO SHRA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KOMA...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM UNTIL WE START TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY OCCUR TOWARD MRNG
AT ESPECIALLY KOFK. VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUN
WITH A FEW CU AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260553
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 456 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE...HAVE ADDED MONTGOMERY AND PAGE COUNTIES IN IOWA TO HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF AN ISO SHRA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KOMA...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM UNTIL WE START TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY OCCUR TOWARD MRNG
AT ESPECIALLY KOFK. VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUN
WITH A FEW CU AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&


.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ052-053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260553
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 456 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE...HAVE ADDED MONTGOMERY AND PAGE COUNTIES IN IOWA TO HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF AN ISO SHRA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KOMA...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM UNTIL WE START TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY OCCUR TOWARD MRNG
AT ESPECIALLY KOFK. VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUN
WITH A FEW CU AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&


.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ052-053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 252339
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE...HAVE ADDED MONTGOMERY AND PAGE COUNTIES IN IOWA TO HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
NERN SD BEGINNING TO GRADUAL MOVE SSE IN RESPONSE TO PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT TS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO ERN NEB EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE GENERALLY BTWN 06Z- 10Z SUNDAY
MORNING. IN LIGHT OF THIS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ052-053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 252339
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE...HAVE ADDED MONTGOMERY AND PAGE COUNTIES IN IOWA TO HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
NERN SD BEGINNING TO GRADUAL MOVE SSE IN RESPONSE TO PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT TS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO ERN NEB EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE GENERALLY BTWN 06Z- 10Z SUNDAY
MORNING. IN LIGHT OF THIS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ052-053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 252339
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE...HAVE ADDED MONTGOMERY AND PAGE COUNTIES IN IOWA TO HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
NERN SD BEGINNING TO GRADUAL MOVE SSE IN RESPONSE TO PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT TS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO ERN NEB EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE GENERALLY BTWN 06Z- 10Z SUNDAY
MORNING. IN LIGHT OF THIS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ052-053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252339
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE...HAVE ADDED MONTGOMERY AND PAGE COUNTIES IN IOWA TO HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
NERN SD BEGINNING TO GRADUAL MOVE SSE IN RESPONSE TO PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT TS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO ERN NEB EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE GENERALLY BTWN 06Z- 10Z SUNDAY
MORNING. IN LIGHT OF THIS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ052-053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252159 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
459 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE...HAVE ADDED MONTGOMERY AND PAGE COUNTIES IN IOWA TO HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE.


MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH KOMA AT 18Z.  CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AT KOFK EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR KOFK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP.  THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ052-053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 252159 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
459 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE...HAVE ADDED MONTGOMERY AND PAGE COUNTIES IN IOWA TO HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE.


MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH KOMA AT 18Z.  CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AT KOFK EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR KOFK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP.  THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ052-053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252058
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
358 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH KOMA AT 18Z.  CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AT KOFK EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR KOFK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP.  THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ052-053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ069-079-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 252058
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
358 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN AREA WILL
BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHILE TO THE SOUTH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER THREAT. IN THE NORTH MID-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS EVENING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THOUGH IS LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IN THE GROWING SEASON
AND THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS THREAT WILL BE HANDLED ON A
STORM BY STORM BASIS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

SUNDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OPTED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS METRO...EVEN THOUGH AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT
MAY NOT SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT ASIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY TO HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN SETTLES IN UNDER A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SNEAK THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING
AND MOISTURE ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
TOO BAD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH KOMA AT 18Z.  CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AT KOFK EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR KOFK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP.  THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ052-053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ069-079-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT
08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND
THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH
POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG
A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH KOMA AT 18Z.  CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AT KOFK EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR KOFK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP.  THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT
08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND
THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH
POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG
A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH KOMA AT 18Z.  CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AT KOFK EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR KOFK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP.  THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT
08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND
THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH
POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG
A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH KOMA AT 18Z.  CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AT KOFK EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR KOFK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP.  THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251124
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT
08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND
THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH
POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG
A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. TIMING
AND LOCATION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ATTM...THUS
HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS. ONCE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO APPEARS THAT ANY RA ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR THIS EVNG INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251124
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT
08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND
THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH
POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG
A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. TIMING
AND LOCATION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ATTM...THUS
HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS. ONCE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO APPEARS THAT ANY RA ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR THIS EVNG INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251124
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT
08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND
THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH
POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG
A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. TIMING
AND LOCATION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ATTM...THUS
HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS. ONCE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO APPEARS THAT ANY RA ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR THIS EVNG INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT
08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND
THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH
POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG
A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IS JUST WEST OF KLNK...SHOULD
IMPACT THAT LOCATION 05-06Z. STORMS SHOULD REACH KOMA BY 06-07Z.
WILL FORECAST A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS
THAN COULD LAST UNTIL 10-12Z. STILL THINKING THAT KOFK MAY BE TOO
FAR NORTH TO GET ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. SHOULD SEE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...18-23Z AT
KOFK...AND 20-03Z AT KLNK/KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT
08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND
THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH
POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG
A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IS JUST WEST OF KLNK...SHOULD
IMPACT THAT LOCATION 05-06Z. STORMS SHOULD REACH KOMA BY 06-07Z.
WILL FORECAST A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS
THAN COULD LAST UNTIL 10-12Z. STILL THINKING THAT KOFK MAY BE TOO
FAR NORTH TO GET ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. SHOULD SEE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...18-23Z AT
KOFK...AND 20-03Z AT KLNK/KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250441
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THAT FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AS IT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA. KOAX 00Z UPPER
SOUNDING REVEALED 6021 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WERE ALSO ABOUT 13041 AGL...LIKELY RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF HAIL BEFORE IT HIT THE GROUND. STORMS PULSED UP AND DOWN VERY
QUICKLY...WITH MARGINAL WIND SHEAR TO GET LARGER HAIL TO DEVELOP.
WE DID HAVE SEVERAL PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTS...AND ONE NICKEL SIZE
HAIL REPORT NEAR BEATRICE. WINDS ALSO GUSTED TO 60 MPH AND DOWNED
A FEW TREES NEAR PLATTSMOUTH.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST WITH STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...BUT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
REMAINS ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS ANY
STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL DUE TO HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
FORTUNATELY...THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS
THAT DID NOT RECEIVE RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THAT LINE
OF STORM DID PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...THUS WILL HAVE TO
WATCH A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT SAW THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF 5000-6000 J/KG OF CAPE...ALTHOUGH EFFECT SHEAR
IS WEAK AT 20-25 KNOTS. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO PULSE
UP...BUT ALSO PULSE RIGHT BACK DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
US...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL JET AROUND 75KT
EXTENDING FROM NV INTO ND. 850MB MOISTURE WAS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US...WITH 12-20C DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST CO...WITH
SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHERN MN...AND BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO THROUGH NORTHWEST IA/EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.  WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY RIDE AS IS
THROUGH 8PM...WITH WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAT INDICES OF 105 OR
GREATER.  ELEVATED SHOWERS ONGOING IN CENTRAL NEB ARE MOVING INTO
MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEB...BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING.  SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE TENDED TO
KEEP THE CWA MAINLY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 03Z
OR EVEN 06Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING OUT OF WESTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AS THEY BOTH MOVE IN AND DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  HINTS OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE ALREADY APPARENT...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOWING IN NORTHWEST KS. THAT SAID...FEW
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING. DID STILL DECREASE POPS FROM 00-
06Z...THOUGH KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION UNTIL 03Z FOR THAT
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  CONTINUED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...THOUGH DID KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOWER
SIDE...AS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WHERE AND WHEN
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE GOING.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
RESPITE IS SHORT-LIVED AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD
MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB BY AROUND MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL RETURN TO A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THINK CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AT BEST...WITH FOCUS MORE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER
NORTH AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS.  CURRENT PROGS ADVANCE THE FRONT MAYBE INTO NORTHEAST
NEB BY 00Z WED. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS
TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
UP TO MATCH EXPECTATIONS.  ALSO KEPT POPS OUT OF THAT WARM
SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD BE STRONGLY CAPPED ON TUESDAY...AND LIMITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
SOME POPS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE CWA TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IS JUST WEST OF KLNK...SHOULD
IMPACT THAT LOCATION 05-06Z. STORMS SHOULD REACH KOMA BY 06-07Z.
WILL FORECAST A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS
THAN COULD LAST UNTIL 10-12Z. STILL THINKING THAT KOFK MAY BE TOO
FAR NORTH TO GET ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. SHOULD SEE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...18-23Z AT
KOFK...AND 20-03Z AT KLNK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250441
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THAT FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AS IT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA. KOAX 00Z UPPER
SOUNDING REVEALED 6021 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WERE ALSO ABOUT 13041 AGL...LIKELY RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF HAIL BEFORE IT HIT THE GROUND. STORMS PULSED UP AND DOWN VERY
QUICKLY...WITH MARGINAL WIND SHEAR TO GET LARGER HAIL TO DEVELOP.
WE DID HAVE SEVERAL PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTS...AND ONE NICKEL SIZE
HAIL REPORT NEAR BEATRICE. WINDS ALSO GUSTED TO 60 MPH AND DOWNED
A FEW TREES NEAR PLATTSMOUTH.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST WITH STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...BUT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
REMAINS ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS ANY
STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL DUE TO HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
FORTUNATELY...THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS
THAT DID NOT RECEIVE RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THAT LINE
OF STORM DID PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...THUS WILL HAVE TO
WATCH A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT SAW THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF 5000-6000 J/KG OF CAPE...ALTHOUGH EFFECT SHEAR
IS WEAK AT 20-25 KNOTS. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO PULSE
UP...BUT ALSO PULSE RIGHT BACK DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
US...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL JET AROUND 75KT
EXTENDING FROM NV INTO ND. 850MB MOISTURE WAS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US...WITH 12-20C DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST CO...WITH
SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHERN MN...AND BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO THROUGH NORTHWEST IA/EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.  WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY RIDE AS IS
THROUGH 8PM...WITH WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAT INDICES OF 105 OR
GREATER.  ELEVATED SHOWERS ONGOING IN CENTRAL NEB ARE MOVING INTO
MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEB...BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING.  SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE TENDED TO
KEEP THE CWA MAINLY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 03Z
OR EVEN 06Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING OUT OF WESTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AS THEY BOTH MOVE IN AND DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  HINTS OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE ALREADY APPARENT...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOWING IN NORTHWEST KS. THAT SAID...FEW
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING. DID STILL DECREASE POPS FROM 00-
06Z...THOUGH KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION UNTIL 03Z FOR THAT
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  CONTINUED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...THOUGH DID KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOWER
SIDE...AS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WHERE AND WHEN
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE GOING.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
RESPITE IS SHORT-LIVED AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD
MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB BY AROUND MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL RETURN TO A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THINK CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AT BEST...WITH FOCUS MORE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER
NORTH AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS.  CURRENT PROGS ADVANCE THE FRONT MAYBE INTO NORTHEAST
NEB BY 00Z WED. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS
TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
UP TO MATCH EXPECTATIONS.  ALSO KEPT POPS OUT OF THAT WARM
SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD BE STRONGLY CAPPED ON TUESDAY...AND LIMITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
SOME POPS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE CWA TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IS JUST WEST OF KLNK...SHOULD
IMPACT THAT LOCATION 05-06Z. STORMS SHOULD REACH KOMA BY 06-07Z.
WILL FORECAST A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS
THAN COULD LAST UNTIL 10-12Z. STILL THINKING THAT KOFK MAY BE TOO
FAR NORTH TO GET ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. SHOULD SEE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...18-23Z AT
KOFK...AND 20-03Z AT KLNK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250228
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
928 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THAT FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AS IT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA. KOAX 00Z UPPER
SOUNDING REVEALED 6021 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WERE ALSO ABOUT 13041 AGL...LIKELY RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF HAIL BEFORE IT HIT THE GROUND. STORMS PULSED UP AND DOWN VERY
QUICKLY...WITH MARGINAL WIND SHEAR TO GET LARGER HAIL TO DEVELOP.
WE DID HAVE SEVERAL PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTS...AND ONE NICKEL SIZE
HAIL REPORT NEAR BEATRICE. WINDS ALSO GUSTED TO 60 MPH AND DOWNED
A FEW TREES NEAR PLATTSMOUTH.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST WITH STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...BUT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
REMAINS ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS ANY
STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL DUE TO HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
FORTUNATELY...THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS
THAT DID NOT RECEIVE RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THAT LINE
OF STORM DID PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...THUS WILL HAVE TO
WATCH A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT SAW THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF 5000-6000 J/KG OF CAPE...ALTHOUGH EFFECT SHEAR
IS WEAK AT 20-25 KNOTS. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO PULSE
UP...BUT ALSO PULSE RIGHT BACK DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
US...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL JET AROUND 75KT
EXTENDING FROM NV INTO ND. 850MB MOISTURE WAS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US...WITH 12-20C DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST CO...WITH
SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHERN MN...AND BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO THROUGH NORTHWEST IA/EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.  WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY RIDE AS IS
THROUGH 8PM...WITH WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAT INDICES OF 105 OR
GREATER.  ELEVATED SHOWERS ONGOING IN CENTRAL NEB ARE MOVING INTO
MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEB...BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING.  SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE TENDED TO
KEEP THE CWA MAINLY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 03Z
OR EVEN 06Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING OUT OF WESTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AS THEY BOTH MOVE IN AND DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  HINTS OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE ALREADY APPARENT...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOWING IN NORTHWEST KS. THAT SAID...FEW
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING. DID STILL DECREASE POPS FROM 00-
06Z...THOUGH KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION UNTIL 03Z FOR THAT
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  CONTINUED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...THOUGH DID KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOWER
SIDE...AS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WHERE AND WHEN
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE GOING.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
RESPITE IS SHORT-LIVED AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD
MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB BY AROUND MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL RETURN TO A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THINK CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AT BEST...WITH FOCUS MORE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER
NORTH AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS.  CURRENT PROGS ADVANCE THE FRONT MAYBE INTO NORTHEAST
NEB BY 00Z WED. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS
TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
UP TO MATCH EXPECTATIONS.  ALSO KEPT POPS OUT OF THAT WARM
SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD BE STRONGLY CAPPED ON TUESDAY...AND LIMITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
SOME POPS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE CWA TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

720 PM UPDATE...STORMS ERUPTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
KLNK/KOMA BUT ARE MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THESE LOCATIONS. STILL
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. TIMING OF STORMS INTO THE TAF SITES IS THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE STORMS COULD BE
NEAR KLNK BY 02-05Z... AND KOMA BY 03-06Z. NOT SURE IF STORMS WILL
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY NORTH TO KOFK. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
TILL 10-12Z. UNSURE OF ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS BEYOND
THEN...BUT BEST CHANCES WOULD BE AT KLNK/KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250228
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
928 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THAT FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AS IT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA. KOAX 00Z UPPER
SOUNDING REVEALED 6021 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WERE ALSO ABOUT 13041 AGL...LIKELY RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF HAIL BEFORE IT HIT THE GROUND. STORMS PULSED UP AND DOWN VERY
QUICKLY...WITH MARGINAL WIND SHEAR TO GET LARGER HAIL TO DEVELOP.
WE DID HAVE SEVERAL PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTS...AND ONE NICKEL SIZE
HAIL REPORT NEAR BEATRICE. WINDS ALSO GUSTED TO 60 MPH AND DOWNED
A FEW TREES NEAR PLATTSMOUTH.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST WITH STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...BUT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
REMAINS ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS ANY
STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL DUE TO HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
FORTUNATELY...THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS
THAT DID NOT RECEIVE RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THAT LINE
OF STORM DID PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...THUS WILL HAVE TO
WATCH A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT SAW THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF 5000-6000 J/KG OF CAPE...ALTHOUGH EFFECT SHEAR
IS WEAK AT 20-25 KNOTS. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO PULSE
UP...BUT ALSO PULSE RIGHT BACK DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
US...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL JET AROUND 75KT
EXTENDING FROM NV INTO ND. 850MB MOISTURE WAS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US...WITH 12-20C DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHWARD.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST CO...WITH
SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHERN MN...AND BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO THROUGH NORTHWEST IA/EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.  WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY RIDE AS IS
THROUGH 8PM...WITH WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAT INDICES OF 105 OR
GREATER.  ELEVATED SHOWERS ONGOING IN CENTRAL NEB ARE MOVING INTO
MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEB...BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING.  SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE TENDED TO
KEEP THE CWA MAINLY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 03Z
OR EVEN 06Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING OUT OF WESTERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AS THEY BOTH MOVE IN AND DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  HINTS OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE ALREADY APPARENT...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOWING IN NORTHWEST KS. THAT SAID...FEW
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING. DID STILL DECREASE POPS FROM 00-
06Z...THOUGH KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION UNTIL 03Z FOR THAT
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  CONTINUED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...THOUGH DID KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOWER
SIDE...AS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WHERE AND WHEN
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE GOING.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
RESPITE IS SHORT-LIVED AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD
MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB BY AROUND MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL RETURN TO A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THINK CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AT BEST...WITH FOCUS MORE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER
NORTH AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS.  CURRENT PROGS ADVANCE THE FRONT MAYBE INTO NORTHEAST
NEB BY 00Z WED. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS
TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
UP TO MATCH EXPECTATIONS.  ALSO KEPT POPS OUT OF THAT WARM
SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD BE STRONGLY CAPPED ON TUESDAY...AND LIMITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
SOME POPS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE CWA TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

720 PM UPDATE...STORMS ERUPTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
KLNK/KOMA BUT ARE MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THESE LOCATIONS. STILL
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. TIMING OF STORMS INTO THE TAF SITES IS THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE STORMS COULD BE
NEAR KLNK BY 02-05Z... AND KOMA BY 03-06Z. NOT SURE IF STORMS WILL
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY NORTH TO KOFK. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
TILL 10-12Z. UNSURE OF ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS BEYOND
THEN...BUT BEST CHANCES WOULD BE AT KLNK/KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD





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