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000
FXUS63 KOAX 041801
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
101 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MORNING UPDATES MAINLY TO TWEAK HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS. THICKER CIRRUS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FARTHER EAST THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER AND
THE MIXING NOT A STRONG...THUS LOWER AND MID 80S WILL BE MORE
COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TODAY

RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM
SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z.
LATER TONIGHT...WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND IF IT MAKES IT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AT KOFK ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...SO THIS MAY BE ADDED.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 8-12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AT KOFK TONIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-16KTS AND
GUSTY LATER SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 041129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TODAY

RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM
SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY AREAS OF IFR
VSBYS OVER ERN NEB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR THE REST OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 041129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TODAY

RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM
SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY AREAS OF IFR
VSBYS OVER ERN NEB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR THE REST OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 041129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TODAY

RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM
SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY AREAS OF IFR
VSBYS OVER ERN NEB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR THE REST OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 040834
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TODAY

RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM
SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KLNK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 040834
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TODAY

RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM
SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KLNK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 040834
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

TODAY

RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY
LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST.  AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM
SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KLNK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 040440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO TSTM POTENTIAL FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE STRONGEST WAVE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA AT 12Z THIS MORNING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ABOUT 120
METERS IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/NORTHERN ALBERTA AND THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 PLUS KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB. SURFACE ANALYSIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...
BUT RIGHT NOW DID NOT FEEL IT WAS NEEDED IN THE GRIDS OR PUBLIC
FORECAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPERATURES LOCALLY THIS MORNING WERE 5-6 DEGREES C BUT WILL
REACH 8-10 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY 82 TO 86.

FORCING AND MOISTURE AMOUNT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY...WITH MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM
WHICH WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING TSTM
CHANCES. TIMING OF STORMS IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IS CONDITIONAL IF THE CAP BREAKS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...SO KEPT POPS
MOSTLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW. THAT FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY. AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.

HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY/
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KLNK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 040440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO TSTM POTENTIAL FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE STRONGEST WAVE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA AT 12Z THIS MORNING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ABOUT 120
METERS IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/NORTHERN ALBERTA AND THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 PLUS KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB. SURFACE ANALYSIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...
BUT RIGHT NOW DID NOT FEEL IT WAS NEEDED IN THE GRIDS OR PUBLIC
FORECAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPERATURES LOCALLY THIS MORNING WERE 5-6 DEGREES C BUT WILL
REACH 8-10 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY 82 TO 86.

FORCING AND MOISTURE AMOUNT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY...WITH MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM
WHICH WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING TSTM
CHANCES. TIMING OF STORMS IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IS CONDITIONAL IF THE CAP BREAKS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...SO KEPT POPS
MOSTLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW. THAT FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY. AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.

HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY/
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KLNK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 040440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO TSTM POTENTIAL FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE STRONGEST WAVE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA AT 12Z THIS MORNING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ABOUT 120
METERS IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/NORTHERN ALBERTA AND THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 PLUS KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB. SURFACE ANALYSIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...
BUT RIGHT NOW DID NOT FEEL IT WAS NEEDED IN THE GRIDS OR PUBLIC
FORECAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPERATURES LOCALLY THIS MORNING WERE 5-6 DEGREES C BUT WILL
REACH 8-10 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY 82 TO 86.

FORCING AND MOISTURE AMOUNT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY...WITH MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM
WHICH WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING TSTM
CHANCES. TIMING OF STORMS IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IS CONDITIONAL IF THE CAP BREAKS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...SO KEPT POPS
MOSTLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW. THAT FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY. AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.

HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY/
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KLNK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 032326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO TSTM POTENTIAL FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE STRONGEST WAVE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA AT 12Z THIS MORNING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ABOUT 120
METERS IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/NORTHERN ALBERTA AND THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 PLUS KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB. SURFACE ANALYSIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...
BUT RIGHT NOW DID NOT FEEL IT WAS NEEDED IN THE GRIDS OR PUBLIC
FORECAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPERATURES LOCALLY THIS MORNING WERE 5-6 DEGREES C BUT WILL
REACH 8-10 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY 82 TO 86.

FORCING AND MOISTURE AMOUNT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY...WITH MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM
WHICH WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING TSTM
CHANCES. TIMING OF STORMS IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IS CONDITIONAL IF THE CAP BREAKS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...SO KEPT POPS
MOSTLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW. THAT FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY. AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.

HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY/
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KOFK MAY PRODUCE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 032326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO TSTM POTENTIAL FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE STRONGEST WAVE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA AT 12Z THIS MORNING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ABOUT 120
METERS IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/NORTHERN ALBERTA AND THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 PLUS KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB. SURFACE ANALYSIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...
BUT RIGHT NOW DID NOT FEEL IT WAS NEEDED IN THE GRIDS OR PUBLIC
FORECAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPERATURES LOCALLY THIS MORNING WERE 5-6 DEGREES C BUT WILL
REACH 8-10 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY 82 TO 86.

FORCING AND MOISTURE AMOUNT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY...WITH MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM
WHICH WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING TSTM
CHANCES. TIMING OF STORMS IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IS CONDITIONAL IF THE CAP BREAKS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...SO KEPT POPS
MOSTLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW. THAT FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY. AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.

HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY/
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KOFK MAY PRODUCE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 032030
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO TSTM POTENTIAL FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE STRONGEST WAVE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA AT 12Z THIS MORNING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ABOUT 120
METERS IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/NORTHERN ALBERTA AND THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 PLUS KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB. SURFACE ANALYSIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...
BUT RIGHT NOW DID NOT FEEL IT WAS NEEDED IN THE GRIDS OR PUBLIC
FORECAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPERATURES LOCALLY THIS MORNING WERE 5-6 DEGREES C BUT WILL
REACH 8-10 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY 82 TO 86.

FORCING AND MOISTURE AMOUNT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY...WITH MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM
WHICH WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING TSTM
CHANCES. TIMING OF STORMS IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IS CONDITIONAL IF THE CAP BREAKS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...SO KEPT POPS
MOSTLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW. THAT FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY. AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.

HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY/
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE LIFTING AT KOFK AND ARE CLOSE AT KLNK. WILL LEAVE
MVFR MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOFK...THEN VFR CIGS AT
BOTH KOFK AND KLNK FL035-050 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 032030
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO TSTM POTENTIAL FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE STRONGEST WAVE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA AT 12Z THIS MORNING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ABOUT 120
METERS IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/NORTHERN ALBERTA AND THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 PLUS KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB. SURFACE ANALYSIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...
BUT RIGHT NOW DID NOT FEEL IT WAS NEEDED IN THE GRIDS OR PUBLIC
FORECAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPERATURES LOCALLY THIS MORNING WERE 5-6 DEGREES C BUT WILL
REACH 8-10 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY 82 TO 86.

FORCING AND MOISTURE AMOUNT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY...WITH MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM
WHICH WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING TSTM
CHANCES. TIMING OF STORMS IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IS CONDITIONAL IF THE CAP BREAKS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...SO KEPT POPS
MOSTLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW. THAT FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY. AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.

HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY/
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE LIFTING AT KOFK AND ARE CLOSE AT KLNK. WILL LEAVE
MVFR MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOFK...THEN VFR CIGS AT
BOTH KOFK AND KLNK FL035-050 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 031732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MORNING FORECAST UPDATES WERE MADE TO TWEAK STRATUS DECK AREA AND
ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON HEATING CUMULUS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
THICKER CLOUDS. ALSO TRIMMED LOW POP AREA IN THE FAR WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA WITH HEATING AND SPOTTY AIRMASS SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TODAY

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...GOES DPI/SFC OBS REVEALING WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PREVAILING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS DURATION OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AFTN
HIGHS. TIME-SECTION PER LATEST HRRR/RAP13...HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH GFSLAMP SUPPORTING THIS
TOO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY OVER THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HINDER TEMPS FROM PUSHING MUCH PAST 80 OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY BOTH MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

NOTE...HAVE INCLUDED SLGT AFTN POPS OVER THE WRN IN THE EVENT
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS/INCREASING LLVL LAPSE
RATE SETTING UP PER THE HRRR/RAP13.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MAY REMAIN JUST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS WAVE COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT DON`T BELIEVE
IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA. THAT WAVE COULD STILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ONTO THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. RAIN WILL MOVING OUT OF AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AGAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SET UPS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE LIFTING AT KOFK AND ARE CLOSE AT KLNK. WILL LEAVE
MVFR MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOFK...THEN VFR CIGS AT
BOTH KOFK AND KLNK FL035-050 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 031134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TODAY

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...GOES DPI/SFC OBS REVEALING WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PREVAILING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS DURATION OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AFTN
HIGHS. TIME-SECTION PER LATEST HRRR/RAP13...HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH GFSLAMP SUPPORTING THIS
TOO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY OVER THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HINDER TEMPS FROM PUSHING MUCH PAST 80 OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY BOTH MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

NOTE...HAVE INCLUDED SLGT AFTN POPS OVER THE WRN IN THE EVENT
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS/INCREASING LLVL LAPSE
RATE SETTING UP PER THE HRRR/RAP13.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MAY REMAIN JUST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS WAVE COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT DON`T BELIEVE
IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA. THAT WAVE COULD STILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ONTO THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. RAIN WILL MOVING OUT OF AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AGAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SET UPS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS AOB
IFR. HOWEVER...SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER EXTREME
ERN NEB/WRN IA MAKING CIG FCST AT KOMA THIS MORNING PROBLEMATIC
AT BEST. SATL TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS NOT SHOWING MUCH
MOVEMENT EWD...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING KOMA SHOULD BE
VFR THRU THE MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AT KOFK/KLNK BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 031134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TODAY

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...GOES DPI/SFC OBS REVEALING WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PREVAILING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS DURATION OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AFTN
HIGHS. TIME-SECTION PER LATEST HRRR/RAP13...HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH GFSLAMP SUPPORTING THIS
TOO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY OVER THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HINDER TEMPS FROM PUSHING MUCH PAST 80 OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY BOTH MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

NOTE...HAVE INCLUDED SLGT AFTN POPS OVER THE WRN IN THE EVENT
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS/INCREASING LLVL LAPSE
RATE SETTING UP PER THE HRRR/RAP13.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MAY REMAIN JUST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS WAVE COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT DON`T BELIEVE
IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA. THAT WAVE COULD STILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ONTO THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. RAIN WILL MOVING OUT OF AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AGAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SET UPS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS AOB
IFR. HOWEVER...SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER EXTREME
ERN NEB/WRN IA MAKING CIG FCST AT KOMA THIS MORNING PROBLEMATIC
AT BEST. SATL TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS NOT SHOWING MUCH
MOVEMENT EWD...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING KOMA SHOULD BE
VFR THRU THE MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AT KOFK/KLNK BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 031134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TODAY

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...GOES DPI/SFC OBS REVEALING WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PREVAILING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS DURATION OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AFTN
HIGHS. TIME-SECTION PER LATEST HRRR/RAP13...HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH GFSLAMP SUPPORTING THIS
TOO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY OVER THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HINDER TEMPS FROM PUSHING MUCH PAST 80 OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY BOTH MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

NOTE...HAVE INCLUDED SLGT AFTN POPS OVER THE WRN IN THE EVENT
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS/INCREASING LLVL LAPSE
RATE SETTING UP PER THE HRRR/RAP13.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MAY REMAIN JUST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS WAVE COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT DON`T BELIEVE
IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA. THAT WAVE COULD STILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ONTO THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. RAIN WILL MOVING OUT OF AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AGAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SET UPS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS AOB
IFR. HOWEVER...SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER EXTREME
ERN NEB/WRN IA MAKING CIG FCST AT KOMA THIS MORNING PROBLEMATIC
AT BEST. SATL TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS NOT SHOWING MUCH
MOVEMENT EWD...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING KOMA SHOULD BE
VFR THRU THE MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AT KOFK/KLNK BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 031134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TODAY

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...GOES DPI/SFC OBS REVEALING WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PREVAILING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS DURATION OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AFTN
HIGHS. TIME-SECTION PER LATEST HRRR/RAP13...HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH GFSLAMP SUPPORTING THIS
TOO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY OVER THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HINDER TEMPS FROM PUSHING MUCH PAST 80 OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY BOTH MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

NOTE...HAVE INCLUDED SLGT AFTN POPS OVER THE WRN IN THE EVENT
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS/INCREASING LLVL LAPSE
RATE SETTING UP PER THE HRRR/RAP13.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MAY REMAIN JUST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS WAVE COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT DON`T BELIEVE
IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA. THAT WAVE COULD STILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ONTO THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. RAIN WILL MOVING OUT OF AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AGAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SET UPS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS AOB
IFR. HOWEVER...SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER EXTREME
ERN NEB/WRN IA MAKING CIG FCST AT KOMA THIS MORNING PROBLEMATIC
AT BEST. SATL TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS NOT SHOWING MUCH
MOVEMENT EWD...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING KOMA SHOULD BE
VFR THRU THE MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AT KOFK/KLNK BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 030813
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TODAY

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...GOES DPI/SFC OBS REVEALING WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PREVAILING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS DURATION OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AFTN
HIGHS. TIME-SECTION PER LATEST HRRR/RAP13...HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH GFSLAMP SUPPORTING THIS
TOO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY OVER THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HINDER TEMPS FROM PUSHING MUCH PAST 80 OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY BOTH MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

NOTE...HAVE INCLUDED SLGT AFTN POPS OVER THE WRN IN THE EVENT
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS/INCREASING LLVL LAPSE
RATE SETTING UP PER THE HRRR/RAP13.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MAY REMAIN JUST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS WAVE COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT DON`T BELIEVE
IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA. THAT WAVE COULD STILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ONTO THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. RAIN WILL MOVING OUT OF AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AGAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SET UPS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN
ADDITION TO LOW CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEREFORE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. LIFR OR VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK. VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 030813
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TODAY

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...GOES DPI/SFC OBS REVEALING WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PREVAILING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS DURATION OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AFTN
HIGHS. TIME-SECTION PER LATEST HRRR/RAP13...HIRES ARW/NMM ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH GFSLAMP SUPPORTING THIS
TOO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY OVER THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HINDER TEMPS FROM PUSHING MUCH PAST 80 OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY BOTH MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

NOTE...HAVE INCLUDED SLGT AFTN POPS OVER THE WRN IN THE EVENT
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS/INCREASING LLVL LAPSE
RATE SETTING UP PER THE HRRR/RAP13.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MAY REMAIN JUST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS WAVE COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT DON`T BELIEVE
IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA. THAT WAVE COULD STILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ONTO THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. RAIN WILL MOVING OUT OF AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AGAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SET UPS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN
ADDITION TO LOW CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEREFORE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. LIFR OR VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK. VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 030453
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUED OVER THE CNTRL US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
OK/TX WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/WRN NEB.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAVE WAS
NOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA/ERN WA. THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE
NEB SHORTWAVE. THIS WAS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE NE NEB
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND DROPPING THEM SWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AT
LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS SWD OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO
GO NEARLY CALM IN THE NORTHERN FA...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AND
RECENT RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND WE HAVE INCLUDED
THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WILL LEAVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY GREAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY IS
PRETTY HIGH AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER FOR JULY STANDARDS...AND
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUBSTANDARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR BELOW
SCHC ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH FRI
AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO TSRA ON SUN NIGHT
OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST NEB...BUT MOST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND
WARMER AS SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR TUE AND WED
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN
ADDITION TO LOW CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEREFORE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. LIFR OR VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK. VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 030453
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUED OVER THE CNTRL US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
OK/TX WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/WRN NEB.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAVE WAS
NOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA/ERN WA. THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE
NEB SHORTWAVE. THIS WAS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE NE NEB
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND DROPPING THEM SWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AT
LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS SWD OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO
GO NEARLY CALM IN THE NORTHERN FA...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AND
RECENT RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND WE HAVE INCLUDED
THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WILL LEAVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY GREAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY IS
PRETTY HIGH AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER FOR JULY STANDARDS...AND
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUBSTANDARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR BELOW
SCHC ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH FRI
AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO TSRA ON SUN NIGHT
OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST NEB...BUT MOST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND
WARMER AS SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR TUE AND WED
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN
ADDITION TO LOW CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEREFORE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. LIFR OR VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK. VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 022329
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUED OVER THE CNTRL US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
OK/TX WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/WRN NEB.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAVE WAS
NOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA/ERN WA. THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE
NEB SHORTWAVE. THIS WAS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE NE NEB
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND DROPPING THEM SWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AT
LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS SWD OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO
GO NEARLY CALM IN THE NORTHERN FA...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AND
RECENT RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND WE HAVE INCLUDED
THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WILL LEAVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY GREAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY IS
PRETTY HIGH AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER FOR JULY STANDARDS...AND
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUBSTANDARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR BELOW
SCHC ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH FRI
AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO TSRA ON SUN NIGHT
OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST NEB...BUT MOST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND
WARMER AS SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR TUE AND WED
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA COULD AFFECT KLNK THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN CLEAR OF TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND
15Z. LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 15Z WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 022329
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUED OVER THE CNTRL US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
OK/TX WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/WRN NEB.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAVE WAS
NOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA/ERN WA. THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE
NEB SHORTWAVE. THIS WAS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE NE NEB
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND DROPPING THEM SWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AT
LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS SWD OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO
GO NEARLY CALM IN THE NORTHERN FA...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AND
RECENT RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND WE HAVE INCLUDED
THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WILL LEAVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY GREAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY IS
PRETTY HIGH AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER FOR JULY STANDARDS...AND
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUBSTANDARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR BELOW
SCHC ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH FRI
AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO TSRA ON SUN NIGHT
OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST NEB...BUT MOST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND
WARMER AS SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR TUE AND WED
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA COULD AFFECT KLNK THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN CLEAR OF TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND
15Z. LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 15Z WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 022329
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUED OVER THE CNTRL US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
OK/TX WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/WRN NEB.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAVE WAS
NOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA/ERN WA. THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE
NEB SHORTWAVE. THIS WAS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE NE NEB
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND DROPPING THEM SWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AT
LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS SWD OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO
GO NEARLY CALM IN THE NORTHERN FA...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AND
RECENT RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND WE HAVE INCLUDED
THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WILL LEAVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY GREAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY IS
PRETTY HIGH AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER FOR JULY STANDARDS...AND
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUBSTANDARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR BELOW
SCHC ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH FRI
AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO TSRA ON SUN NIGHT
OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST NEB...BUT MOST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND
WARMER AS SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR TUE AND WED
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA COULD AFFECT KLNK THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN CLEAR OF TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND
15Z. LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 15Z WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 022032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUED OVER THE CNTRL US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
OK/TX WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/WRN NEB.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAVE WAS
NOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA/ERN WA. THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE
NEB SHORTWAVE. THIS WAS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE NE NEB
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND DROPPING THEM SWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AT
LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS SWD OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO
GO NEARLY CALM IN THE NORTHERN FA...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AND
RECENT RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND WE HAVE INCLUDED
THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WILL LEAVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY GREAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY IS
PRETTY HIGH AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER FOR JULY STANDARDS...AND
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUBSTANDARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR BELOW
SCHC ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH FRI
AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO TSRA ON SUN NIGHT
OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST NEB...BUT MOST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND
WARMER AS SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR TUE AND WED
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED THUNDER WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH KLNK TO
START WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SPOTTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CIGS AND DECREASE RAIN MENTION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK IN BEHIND SHORTWAVES...THUS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN TONIGHT THEN BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 022032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUED OVER THE CNTRL US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
OK/TX WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/WRN NEB.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAVE WAS
NOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA/ERN WA. THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE
NEB SHORTWAVE. THIS WAS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE NE NEB
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND DROPPING THEM SWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AT
LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS SWD OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO
GO NEARLY CALM IN THE NORTHERN FA...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AND
RECENT RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND WE HAVE INCLUDED
THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WILL LEAVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY GREAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY IS
PRETTY HIGH AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER FOR JULY STANDARDS...AND
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUBSTANDARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR BELOW
SCHC ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH FRI
AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO TSRA ON SUN NIGHT
OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST NEB...BUT MOST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND
WARMER AS SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR TUE AND WED
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED THUNDER WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH KLNK TO
START WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SPOTTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CIGS AND DECREASE RAIN MENTION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK IN BEHIND SHORTWAVES...THUS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN TONIGHT THEN BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 021805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THESE WAVES AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW. MORNING
UPDATES RAISED POPS AND LOWERED HIGHS. ADJUSTED TIMING FOR
LOWERING POPS IN THE WEST AS THE RAIN AREA SHIFTS EAST...AND KEPT
HIGHS WARMER THERE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE
AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND.
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND.
850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK
WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING
WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB
GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL.

MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP
UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED THUNDER WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH KLNK TO
START WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SPOTTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CIGS AND DECREASE RAIN MENTION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK IN BEHIND SHORTWAVES...THUS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN TONIGHT THEN BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 021805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THESE WAVES AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW. MORNING
UPDATES RAISED POPS AND LOWERED HIGHS. ADJUSTED TIMING FOR
LOWERING POPS IN THE WEST AS THE RAIN AREA SHIFTS EAST...AND KEPT
HIGHS WARMER THERE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE
AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND.
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND.
850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK
WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING
WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB
GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL.

MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP
UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED THUNDER WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH KLNK TO
START WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SPOTTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CIGS AND DECREASE RAIN MENTION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK IN BEHIND SHORTWAVES...THUS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN TONIGHT THEN BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 021805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THESE WAVES AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW. MORNING
UPDATES RAISED POPS AND LOWERED HIGHS. ADJUSTED TIMING FOR
LOWERING POPS IN THE WEST AS THE RAIN AREA SHIFTS EAST...AND KEPT
HIGHS WARMER THERE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE
AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND.
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND.
850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK
WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING
WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB
GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL.

MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP
UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED THUNDER WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH KLNK TO
START WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SPOTTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CIGS AND DECREASE RAIN MENTION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK IN BEHIND SHORTWAVES...THUS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN TONIGHT THEN BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 021805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THESE WAVES AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW. MORNING
UPDATES RAISED POPS AND LOWERED HIGHS. ADJUSTED TIMING FOR
LOWERING POPS IN THE WEST AS THE RAIN AREA SHIFTS EAST...AND KEPT
HIGHS WARMER THERE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE
AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND.
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND.
850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK
WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING
WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB
GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL.

MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP
UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED THUNDER WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH KLNK TO
START WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SPOTTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CIGS AND DECREASE RAIN MENTION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK IN BEHIND SHORTWAVES...THUS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN TONIGHT THEN BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 021137
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE
AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND.
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND.
850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK
WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING
WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB
GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL.

MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP
UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL
ADDRESS THAT AT LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 021137
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE
AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND.
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND.
850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK
WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING
WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB
GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL.

MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP
UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL
ADDRESS THAT AT LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 020814
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE
AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND.
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND.
850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK
WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING
WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB
GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL.

MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP
UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SOME IFR CIGS COULD WORK INTO KLNK
AND KOFK AS WELL. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO ROLL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AS
WELL...AFFECTING KOFK BY 14Z AND KLNK BY 18Z. A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO KOMA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z OR SO AT ALL SITES...WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS LIFTING TO VFR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 020814
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE
AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND.
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND.
850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK
WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD
STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING
WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB
GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL.

MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP
UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SOME IFR CIGS COULD WORK INTO KLNK
AND KOFK AS WELL. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO ROLL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AS
WELL...AFFECTING KOFK BY 14Z AND KLNK BY 18Z. A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO KOMA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z OR SO AT ALL SITES...WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS LIFTING TO VFR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 020437
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SOME IFR CIGS COULD WORK INTO KLNK
AND KOFK AS WELL. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO ROLL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AS
WELL...AFFECTING KOFK BY 14Z AND KLNK BY 18Z. A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO KOMA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z OR SO AT ALL SITES...WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS LIFTING TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 020437
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SOME IFR CIGS COULD WORK INTO KLNK
AND KOFK AS WELL. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO ROLL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AS
WELL...AFFECTING KOFK BY 14Z AND KLNK BY 18Z. A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO KOMA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z OR SO AT ALL SITES...WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS LIFTING TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 020437
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SOME IFR CIGS COULD WORK INTO KLNK
AND KOFK AS WELL. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO ROLL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AS
WELL...AFFECTING KOFK BY 14Z AND KLNK BY 18Z. A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO KOMA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z OR SO AT ALL SITES...WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS LIFTING TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 020437
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SOME IFR CIGS COULD WORK INTO KLNK
AND KOFK AS WELL. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO ROLL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AS
WELL...AFFECTING KOFK BY 14Z AND KLNK BY 18Z. A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO KOMA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z OR SO AT ALL SITES...WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS LIFTING TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 012304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
604 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR FL040 ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR IS
LIKELY AFTER 08Z...AND KLNK AND KOFK WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP DURING THE
EVENING...IT APPEARS STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. KOFK HAS A CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 012304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
604 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR FL040 ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR IS
LIKELY AFTER 08Z...AND KLNK AND KOFK WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP DURING THE
EVENING...IT APPEARS STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. KOFK HAS A CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 012304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
604 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR FL040 ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR IS
LIKELY AFTER 08Z...AND KLNK AND KOFK WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP DURING THE
EVENING...IT APPEARS STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. KOFK HAS A CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 012304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
604 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR FL040 ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR IS
LIKELY AFTER 08Z...AND KLNK AND KOFK WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP DURING THE
EVENING...IT APPEARS STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. KOFK HAS A CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 012041
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KOFK AND KLNK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AROUND 21Z...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR. AFTER
0600Z...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KOFK AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 08-09Z AND IFR CONDITIONS
AT KOFK AFTER 12Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 012041
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KOFK AND KLNK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AROUND 21Z...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR. AFTER
0600Z...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KOFK AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 08-09Z AND IFR CONDITIONS
AT KOFK AFTER 12Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...SMITH





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