Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KOAX 311129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

IR SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBS REVEALING LLVL CIGS PRETTY MUCH
PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM LIFR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS  PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

IR SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBS REVEALING LLVL CIGS PRETTY MUCH
PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM LIFR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS  PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

IR SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBS REVEALING LLVL CIGS PRETTY MUCH
PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM LIFR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS  PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING
COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 310751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING
COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING
COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 310751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING
COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310438
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310438
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310438
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MVFR FOG COULD REDEVELOP AT
ALL SITES 10-14Z. COULD BE TEMPORARILY IFR AT KOMA DURING THIS
TIME. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS AT
KOFK BY 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MVFR FOG COULD REDEVELOP AT
ALL SITES 10-14Z. COULD BE TEMPORARILY IFR AT KOMA DURING THIS
TIME. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS AT
KOFK BY 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MVFR FOG COULD REDEVELOP AT
ALL SITES 10-14Z. COULD BE TEMPORARILY IFR AT KOMA DURING THIS
TIME. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS AT
KOFK BY 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302022
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 302022
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TIMING OF EROSION OF STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
EROSION OF THE CLOUD FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TIMING OF EROSION OF STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
EROSION OF THE CLOUD FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TIMING OF EROSION OF STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
EROSION OF THE CLOUD FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300849
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300849
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1031 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CLOUDS TRIED TO CLEAR...BUT A BAND REMAINS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE HARD
TO GET RID OF OVERNIGHT AND COULD ACTUALLY EVEN EXPAND. OUTSIDE OF
THE STRATUS...STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME SPOTS...AT LEAST BASED ON MODEL PREDICTIONS
FROM THE RAP/HRRR/NAM...ALTHOUGH EACH MODEL IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
IN THE AREAL EXTENT. AS IT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...AREAS WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS...THE FOG SHOULDN`T BE THAT BAD OR MAY NOT EVEN
DEVELOP AT ALL.

ALSO...SOME FOLKS MAY HAVE NOTICED THE RED FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THERE REMAINS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SMOKE OVERHEAD FROM WILDFIRES
IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1031 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CLOUDS TRIED TO CLEAR...BUT A BAND REMAINS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE HARD
TO GET RID OF OVERNIGHT AND COULD ACTUALLY EVEN EXPAND. OUTSIDE OF
THE STRATUS...STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME SPOTS...AT LEAST BASED ON MODEL PREDICTIONS
FROM THE RAP/HRRR/NAM...ALTHOUGH EACH MODEL IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
IN THE AREAL EXTENT. AS IT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...AREAS WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS...THE FOG SHOULDN`T BE THAT BAD OR MAY NOT EVEN
DEVELOP AT ALL.

ALSO...SOME FOLKS MAY HAVE NOTICED THE RED FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THERE REMAINS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SMOKE OVERHEAD FROM WILDFIRES
IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES. MVFR FOG MAY
REDEVELOP 09-13Z...AND COULD TEMPORARILY BE IFR AT KOMA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS AT KOFK BY 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 292325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES. MVFR FOG MAY
REDEVELOP 09-13Z...AND COULD TEMPORARILY BE IFR AT KOMA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS AT KOFK BY 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 292032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 292032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND MIST DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND MIST DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND MIST DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND MIST DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290754
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA THRU THE NIGHT...AND EVEN COULD DROP INTO LIFR CATEGORY
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK/KOFK. KOFK COULD OCCASIONALLY
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. IF THAT HAPPENS...WITH CLEARING SKIES...DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP THERE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE OR
LESS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 14-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290754
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA THRU THE NIGHT...AND EVEN COULD DROP INTO LIFR CATEGORY
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK/KOFK. KOFK COULD OCCASIONALLY
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. IF THAT HAPPENS...WITH CLEARING SKIES...DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP THERE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE OR
LESS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 14-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290754
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA THRU THE NIGHT...AND EVEN COULD DROP INTO LIFR CATEGORY
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK/KOFK. KOFK COULD OCCASIONALLY
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. IF THAT HAPPENS...WITH CLEARING SKIES...DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP THERE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE OR
LESS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 14-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290754
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA THRU THE NIGHT...AND EVEN COULD DROP INTO LIFR CATEGORY
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK/KOFK. KOFK COULD OCCASIONALLY
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. IF THAT HAPPENS...WITH CLEARING SKIES...DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP THERE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE OR
LESS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 14-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290435
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS REMAINED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...WHERE THE TIGHTEST CYCLONIC FLOW
EXISTED...IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THAT COULD
LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SKIES HAD ACTUALLY CLEARED IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SPOTTY AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THESE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HRRR/RAP/NAM
ALL INDICATE THIS HAPPENING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
KONL HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE. UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS...
VISIBILITIES PROBABLY WON`T TANK THAT BADLY. NO PLANS TO ISSUE
ANY FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN
OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HAPPENS EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE EFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE LINGER. FOR THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REBOUND INTO THE 80S UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THUS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY DRY WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM A BIT AND
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA THRU THE NIGHT...AND EVEN COULD DROP INTO LIFR CATEGORY
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK/KOFK. KOFK COULD OCCASIONALLY
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. IF THAT HAPPENS...WITH CLEARING SKIES...DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP THERE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE OR
LESS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 14-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...MEYER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290435
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS REMAINED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...WHERE THE TIGHTEST CYCLONIC FLOW
EXISTED...IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THAT COULD
LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SKIES HAD ACTUALLY CLEARED IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SPOTTY AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THESE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HRRR/RAP/NAM
ALL INDICATE THIS HAPPENING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
KONL HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE. UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS...
VISIBILITIES PROBABLY WON`T TANK THAT BADLY. NO PLANS TO ISSUE
ANY FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN
OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HAPPENS EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE EFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE LINGER. FOR THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REBOUND INTO THE 80S UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THUS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY DRY WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM A BIT AND
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA THRU THE NIGHT...AND EVEN COULD DROP INTO LIFR CATEGORY
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK/KOFK. KOFK COULD OCCASIONALLY
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. IF THAT HAPPENS...WITH CLEARING SKIES...DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP THERE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE OR
LESS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 14-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290435
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS REMAINED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...WHERE THE TIGHTEST CYCLONIC FLOW
EXISTED...IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THAT COULD
LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SKIES HAD ACTUALLY CLEARED IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SPOTTY AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THESE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HRRR/RAP/NAM
ALL INDICATE THIS HAPPENING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
KONL HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE. UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS...
VISIBILITIES PROBABLY WON`T TANK THAT BADLY. NO PLANS TO ISSUE
ANY FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN
OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HAPPENS EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE EFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE LINGER. FOR THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REBOUND INTO THE 80S UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THUS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY DRY WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM A BIT AND
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA THRU THE NIGHT...AND EVEN COULD DROP INTO LIFR CATEGORY
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK/KOFK. KOFK COULD OCCASIONALLY
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. IF THAT HAPPENS...WITH CLEARING SKIES...DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP THERE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE OR
LESS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 14-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290435
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS REMAINED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...WHERE THE TIGHTEST CYCLONIC FLOW
EXISTED...IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THAT COULD
LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SKIES HAD ACTUALLY CLEARED IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SPOTTY AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THESE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HRRR/RAP/NAM
ALL INDICATE THIS HAPPENING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
KONL HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE. UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS...
VISIBILITIES PROBABLY WON`T TANK THAT BADLY. NO PLANS TO ISSUE
ANY FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN
OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HAPPENS EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE EFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE LINGER. FOR THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REBOUND INTO THE 80S UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THUS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY DRY WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM A BIT AND
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA THRU THE NIGHT...AND EVEN COULD DROP INTO LIFR CATEGORY
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KLNK/KOFK. KOFK COULD OCCASIONALLY
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. IF THAT HAPPENS...WITH CLEARING SKIES...DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP THERE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE OR
LESS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 14-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...MEYER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281952
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HAPPENS EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE EFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE LINGER. FOR THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REBOUND INTO THE 80S UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THUS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY DRY WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM A BIT AND
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CEILINGS HAD TRENDED TO MVFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z.
THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS LINGER NORTH OF KOFK IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...LIFTING AND THINNING OF CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN AND
SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO SET IN AFTER
10Z AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR TO VFR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...MEYER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PCPN CHANCES TODAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH
RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE UP
TO ABOUT 50 METERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS ALSO QUITE MOIST. 700 MB
DEWPOINTS OF 4-8 DEGREES C WERE NOTED FROM THE DESERT SW UP INTO
WRN KS AND SWRN NE AT 00Z LAST EVENING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PW VALUES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST AREA OF LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT SOME POPS GOING MUCH OF THE
DAY. A WEAKER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD OVER THE REGION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY AT 20-30 PERCENT AFTER EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ENDS.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AND EVEN THE 00Z NAM SUGGEST PREVIOUS SCENARIO...
WITH AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.

LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN OUR FAR SERN ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT SOME
MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BOTH GFS MOS AND NAM
MOS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
DID NOT MENTION FOG SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. RETURN FLOW WITH S/SE
SFC WINDS SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO UP INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NWRN UNITED STATES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST DIGS. WEAK RIPPLES
MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION COULD BRING SOME TSRA...WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA FOR MOST
OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CEILINGS HAD TRENDED TO MVFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z.
THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS LINGER NORTH OF KOFK IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...LIFTING AND THINNING OF CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN AND
SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO SET IN AFTER
10Z AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PCPN CHANCES TODAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH
RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE UP
TO ABOUT 50 METERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS ALSO QUITE MOIST. 700 MB
DEWPOINTS OF 4-8 DEGREES C WERE NOTED FROM THE DESERT SW UP INTO
WRN KS AND SWRN NE AT 00Z LAST EVENING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PW VALUES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST AREA OF LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT SOME POPS GOING MUCH OF THE
DAY. A WEAKER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD OVER THE REGION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY AT 20-30 PERCENT AFTER EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ENDS.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AND EVEN THE 00Z NAM SUGGEST PREVIOUS SCENARIO...
WITH AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.

LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN OUR FAR SERN ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT SOME
MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BOTH GFS MOS AND NAM
MOS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
DID NOT MENTION FOG SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. RETURN FLOW WITH S/SE
SFC WINDS SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO UP INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NWRN UNITED STATES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST DIGS. WEAK RIPPLES
MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION COULD BRING SOME TSRA...WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA FOR MOST
OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CEILINGS HAD TRENDED TO MVFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z.
THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS LINGER NORTH OF KOFK IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...LIFTING AND THINNING OF CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN AND
SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO SET IN AFTER
10Z AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PCPN CHANCES TODAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH
RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE UP
TO ABOUT 50 METERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS ALSO QUITE MOIST. 700 MB
DEWPOINTS OF 4-8 DEGREES C WERE NOTED FROM THE DESERT SW UP INTO
WRN KS AND SWRN NE AT 00Z LAST EVENING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PW VALUES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST AREA OF LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT SOME POPS GOING MUCH OF THE
DAY. A WEAKER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD OVER THE REGION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY AT 20-30 PERCENT AFTER EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ENDS.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AND EVEN THE 00Z NAM SUGGEST PREVIOUS SCENARIO...
WITH AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.

LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN OUR FAR SERN ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT SOME
MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BOTH GFS MOS AND NAM
MOS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
DID NOT MENTION FOG SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. RETURN FLOW WITH S/SE
SFC WINDS SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO UP INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NWRN UNITED STATES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST DIGS. WEAK RIPPLES
MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION COULD BRING SOME TSRA...WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA FOR MOST
OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CEILINGS HAD TRENDED TO MVFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z.
THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS LINGER NORTH OF KOFK IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...LIFTING AND THINNING OF CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN AND
SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO SET IN AFTER
10Z AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PCPN CHANCES TODAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH
RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE UP
TO ABOUT 50 METERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS ALSO QUITE MOIST. 700 MB
DEWPOINTS OF 4-8 DEGREES C WERE NOTED FROM THE DESERT SW UP INTO
WRN KS AND SWRN NE AT 00Z LAST EVENING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PW VALUES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST AREA OF LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT SOME POPS GOING MUCH OF THE
DAY. A WEAKER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD OVER THE REGION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY AT 20-30 PERCENT AFTER EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ENDS.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AND EVEN THE 00Z NAM SUGGEST PREVIOUS SCENARIO...
WITH AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.

LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN OUR FAR SERN ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT SOME
MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BOTH GFS MOS AND NAM
MOS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
DID NOT MENTION FOG SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. RETURN FLOW WITH S/SE
SFC WINDS SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO UP INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NWRN UNITED STATES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST DIGS. WEAK RIPPLES
MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION COULD BRING SOME TSRA...WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA FOR MOST
OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CEILINGS HAD TRENDED TO MVFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z.
THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS LINGER NORTH OF KOFK IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...LIFTING AND THINNING OF CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN AND
SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO SET IN AFTER
10Z AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities