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000
FXUS63 KOAX 291826
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
126 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY...THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THAT
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW CENTER IN COLORADO LATER
TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP
LAYER MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH/LOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW 850MB WILL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA INITIALLY...THEN SPREAD TOWARD OUR
AREA AS THAT BOUNDARY IS KICKED NORTHWARD. SO INITIALLY ONLY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN HERE. AND PERSISTENT
EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN RAIN CHANCES
OVERSPREADING EASTERN NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

BY TONIGHT...850 FLOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
BORDER WITH IMPLIED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES MARKEDLY AS
WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM NEAR 0.6 TO
OVER AN INCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS OCCURRENCE...AND
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT...COULD
SEE RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST
AREA OF THETA-E CONVERGENCE WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE HIGH CHANCES AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE. TO THE SOUTH...DRY AIR WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT INCREASING
INSTABILITY WHERE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS OVERSPREAD THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE
MARKEDLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE MAINLY A CLOUDY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGES. WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WILL REFLECT MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS OFF THE WEST COAST AND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND A RIDGE FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BEFORE THAT PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES WITH MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT COULD BRING US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH IN POPPING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
DRY. GIVEN LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AND SPORADIC NATURE OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE
RAIN CHANCES AT ANY POINT NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 60S BEGINNING THE WEEK WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING EACH DAY TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOK FOR DETETIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES ESPECIALLY AFTER
00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH/DEVELOPING
FROM KANSAS IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND SOME PATCHY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TOWARD 12Z...AND WILL NEED
TO ASSESS THUNDER POTENTIAL AT KLNK AND KOMA. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10KTS TO 20KTS AND GUSTY AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE EAST
AT KLNK AND KOMA AT 35 TO 45KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291154
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
654 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY...THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THAT
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW CENTER IN COLORADO LATER
TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP
LAYER MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH/LOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW 850MB WILL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA INITIALLY...THEN SPREAD TOWARD OUR
AREA AS THAT BOUNDARY IS KICKED NORTHWARD. SO INITIALLY ONLY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN HERE. AND PERSISTENT
EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN RAIN CHANCES
OVERSPREADING EASTERN NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

BY TONIGHT...850 FLOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
BORDER WITH IMPLIED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES MARKEDLY AS
WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM NEAR 0.6 TO
OVER AN INCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS OCCURRENCE...AND
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT...COULD
SEE RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST
AREA OF THETA-E CONVERGENCE WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE HIGH CHANCES AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE. TO THE SOUTH...DRY AIR WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT INCREASING
INSTABILITY WHERE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS OVERSPREAD THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE
MARKEDLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE MAINLY A CLOUDY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGES. WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WILL REFLECT MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS OFF THE WEST COAST AND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND A RIDGE FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BEFORE THAT PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES WITH MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT COULD BRING US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH IN POPPING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
DRY. GIVEN LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AND SPORADIC NATURE OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE
RAIN CHANCES AT ANY POINT NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 60S BEGINNING THE WEEK WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING EACH DAY TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL COMPLEX LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG AFTER
21Z. PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290811
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY...THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THAT
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW CENTER IN COLORADO LATER
TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP
LAYER MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH/LOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW 850MB WILL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA INITIALLY...THEN SPREAD TOWARD OUR
AREA AS THAT BOUNDARY IS KICKED NORTHWARD. SO INITIALLY ONLY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN HERE. AND PERSISTENT
EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN RAIN CHANCES
OVERSPREADING EASTERN NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

BY TONIGHT...850 FLOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
BORDER WITH IMPLIED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES MARKEDLY AS
WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM NEAR 0.6 TO
OVER AN INCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS OCCURRENCE...AND
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT...COULD
SEE RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST
AREA OF THETA-E CONVERGENCE WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE HIGH CHANCES AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE. TO THE SOUTH...DRY AIR WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT INCREASING
INSTABILITY WHERE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS OVERSPREAD THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE
MARKEDLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE MAINLY A CLOUDY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO SMALLER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGES. WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WILL REFLECT MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS OFF THE WEST COAST AND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND A RIDGE FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BEFORE THAT PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES WITH MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT COULD BRING US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH IN POPPING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
DRY. GIVEN LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AND SPORADIC NATURE OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE
RAIN CHANCES AT ANY POINT NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 60S BEGINNING THE WEEK WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING EACH DAY TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THAT WOULD MAINLY BE FOR CIGS...AND
MAINLY AT KOFK. -RA MAY AFFECT KLNK AND KOFK AT TIMES FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290441
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MADE A FEW VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST EARLIER...
MOSTLY JUST BUMPING SKY COVER UP A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER AND AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U.S. TONIGHT...PROMOTING THE MAINTENANCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SAME AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/FRIDAY.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION
OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN
NE/KS AND WRN MO. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE
UPPER-AIR FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM
WRN TX INTO NERN KS BY 12Z/SATURDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
YIELD AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
CWA TOMORROW (FRI) WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SHIFTING
EWD/SEWD AND BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THIS
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
ALREADY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...CONSIDERABLE RUN OFF IS
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN RISING AREA RIVERS. THE CLOUDY...WET
CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO STUNT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FEATURING A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN THE
WEST...A REX BLOCK WILL TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH
WILL SHIFT FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE CNTRL U.S. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THAT WOULD MAINLY BE FOR CIGS...AND
MAINLY AT KOFK. -RA MAY AFFECT KLNK AND KOFK AT TIMES FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER AND AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U.S. TONIGHT...PROMOTING THE MAINTENANCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SAME AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/FRIDAY.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION
OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN
NE/KS AND WRN MO. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE
UPPER-AIR FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM
WRN TX INTO NERN KS BY 12Z/SATURDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
YIELD AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
CWA TOMORROW (FRI) WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SHIFTING
EWD/SEWD AND BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THIS
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
ALREADY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...CONSIDERABLE RUN OFF IS
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN RISING AREA RIVERS. THE CLOUDY...WET
CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO STUNT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FEATURING A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN THE
WEST...A REX BLOCK WILL TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH
WILL SHIFT FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE CNTRL U.S. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING AT KOMA AND KLNK WITH VFR CIGS.
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY CIGS AND MAINLY AT
KOFK. CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT FRI AFTN...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
DID NOT PUT THAT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282020
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER AND AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U.S. TONIGHT...PROMOTING THE MAINTENANCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SAME AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/FRIDAY.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION
OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN
NE/KS AND WRN MO. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE
UPPER-AIR FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM
WRN TX INTO NERN KS BY 12Z/SATURDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
YIELD AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
CWA TOMORROW (FRI) WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SHIFTING
EWD/SEWD AND BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THIS
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
ALREADY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...CONSIDERABLE RUN OFF IS
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN RISING AREA RIVERS. THE CLOUDY...WET
CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO STUNT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FEATURING A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN THE
WEST...A REX BLOCK WILL TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH
WILL SHIFT FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE CNTRL U.S. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME DIURNAL LIFTING...THE RAP SEEMS TO HOLD ON TO THE CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CIGS ARE LIMITED HEATING.  THE SHORTWAVE
PULLS AWAY TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN. KOFK
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING MVFR AND COULD LOWER TO
IFR AFTER 06Z. AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES KOMA AND KLNK SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CIGS FL050-070 WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281803
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
103 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY YESTERDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS WE RELOAD FOR MORE RAIN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT 00Z AND IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. REMAINING SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
DAY.

OUR NEXT UPPER LOW TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WOULD BE DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS
IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONSIDERS THIS SOLUTION AN
OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP HITTING THE POPS HARD OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREAS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
HIGH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR HYDRO CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND MAY
PHASE IN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. PCPN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NATION`S MID SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME DIURNAL LIFTING...THE RAP SEEMS TO HOLD ON TO THE CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CIGS ARE LIMITED HEATING.  THE SHORTWAVE
PULLS AWAY TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN. KOFK
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING MVFR AND COULD LOWER TO
IFR AFTER 06Z. AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES KOMA AND KLNK SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CIGS FL050-070 WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281803
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
103 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY YESTERDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS WE RELOAD FOR MORE RAIN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT 00Z AND IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. REMAINING SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
DAY.

OUR NEXT UPPER LOW TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WOULD BE DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS
IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONSIDERS THIS SOLUTION AN
OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP HITTING THE POPS HARD OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREAS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
HIGH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR HYDRO CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND MAY
PHASE IN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. PCPN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NATION`S MID SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME DIURNAL LIFTING...THE RAP SEEMS TO HOLD ON TO THE CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CIGS ARE LIMITED HEATING.  THE SHORTWAVE
PULLS AWAY TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN. KOFK
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING MVFR AND COULD LOWER TO
IFR AFTER 06Z. AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES KOMA AND KLNK SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CIGS FL050-070 WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY YESTERDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS WE RELOAD FOR MORE RAIN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT 00Z AND IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. REMAINING SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
DAY.

OUR NEXT UPPER LOW TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WOULD BE DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS
IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONSIDERS THIS SOLUTION AN
OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP HITTING THE POPS HARD OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREAS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
HIGH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR HYDRO CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND MAY
PHASE IN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. PCPN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NATION`S MID SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOV E AWAY FM THE TAF SITES TDY...BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. A PERIOD OF
VFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK...BUT MVFR CIGS
SHOULD QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW THE
WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHWEST...AND THIS DIRECTION SHOULD CONT
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AOB 12 KT AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280903
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
403 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY YESTERDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS WE RELOAD FOR MORE RAIN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT 00Z AND IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. REMAINING SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
DAY.

OUR NEXT UPPER LOW TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WOULD BE DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS
IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONSIDERS THIS SOLUTION AN
OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP HITTING THE POPS HARD OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREAS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
HIGH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR HYDRO CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND MAY
PHASE IN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. PCPN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NATION`S MID SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED CLOSE TO
KOMA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY LATER MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280459
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1159 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER S-CNTRL NE WILL DEVELOP EWD
INTO IA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPSTREAM JET
STREAK FROM THE CA COAST INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE FOSTERED A BROKEN BAND
OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON FROM E-CNTRL NE INTO SWRN
IA....ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. THE
MORE PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SWRN IA WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
BY THAT TIME WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE PASSING TO OUR
EAST...AND AHEAD AN UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
HIGH WILL DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A LEE
CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
HIGH...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL YIELD
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SWRN CWA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTING THROUGH THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SURFACE PATTERN DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ALOFT. IN EITHER
CASE...INCREASED DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
WARRANTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE MID-
MO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF A WRN U.S. TROUGH
EDGING EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS TROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT IS ENTRAINED INTO AN
AMPLIFYING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN GENERAL...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER PATTERN BY MONDAY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED CLOSE TO
KOMA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY LATER MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272328
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER S-CNTRL NE WILL DEVELOP EWD
INTO IA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPSTREAM JET
STREAK FROM THE CA COAST INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE FOSTERED A BROKEN BAND
OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON FROM E-CNTRL NE INTO SWRN
IA....ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. THE
MORE PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SWRN IA WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
BY THAT TIME WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE PASSING TO OUR
EAST...AND AHEAD AN UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
HIGH WILL DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A LEE
CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
HIGH...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL YIELD
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SWRN CWA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTING THROUGH THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SURFACE PATTERN DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ALOFT. IN EITHER
CASE...INCREASED DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
WARRANTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE MID-
MO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF A WRN U.S. TROUGH
EDGING EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS TROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT IS ENTRAINED INTO AN
AMPLIFYING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN GENERAL...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER PATTERN BY MONDAY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SURFACE LOW CENTERED BETWEEN ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL MAKE A
PROBLEMATIC FORECAST FOR WINDS TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AT KOMA AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL BE
ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT LIKELY
BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING...THEN
BACK TO MVFR TOMORROW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272020
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER S-CNTRL NE WILL DEVELOP EWD
INTO IA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPSTREAM JET
STREAK FROM THE CA COAST INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE FOSTERED A BROKEN BAND
OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON FROM E-CNTRL NE INTO SWRN
IA....ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. THE
MORE PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SWRN IA WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
BY THAT TIME WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE PASSING TO OUR
EAST...AND AHEAD AN UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
HIGH WILL DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A LEE
CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
HIGH...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL YIELD
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. THE RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SWRN CWA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTING THROUGH THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SURFACE PATTERN DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ALOFT. IN EITHER
CASE...INCREASED DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
WARRANTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE MID-
MO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF A WRN U.S. TROUGH
EDGING EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS TROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT IS ENTRAINED INTO AN
AMPLIFYING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN GENERAL...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER PATTERN BY MONDAY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KOMA/KOFK FROM 19-21Z AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ARC NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IT`S
MOSTLY MVFR INITIALLY...BUT PROBABLY BECOMING IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALSO A COMPLICATED WIND FORECAST AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271852
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
152 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SURFACE LOW REMAINS PARKED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WEST
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS AT 18Z. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED
WITH BOUNDARIES NOTED ON KOAX RADAR SHOW THE OCCLUSION POINT WAS
BETWEEN LINCOLN AND WAHOO. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS OF HRRR...
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AS NSSL 4KM SUGGEST MINI SUPER CELL STORMS WILL
DEVELOP FROM NEAR FREMONT EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
THESE WOULD BE LOW TOPPED STORMS. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE TRIPLE
POINT WHERE SOME ROTATION MAY BE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
OFFICE. SURFACE BASED CAPE IS 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR.
0-3KM CAPE IS 100-125 J/KG...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE
COORDINATED WITH SPC EARLIER IN THE DAY TO PULL THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AND ALSO BRING 2 PERCENT TORNADO
PROBABILITIES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF STORMS
OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AS THESE STORMS SHIFT
NORTH. FREEZING LEVEL IS LOW...AROUND 8000 FEET. THUS 50DBZ
HEIGHTS WOULD BE QUITE LOW FOR HAIL...WHICH COULD BE 1 TO 1.5
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ELONGATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE
BASE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE
SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW AT 08Z LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY...THE
COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AND SHIFT NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE SFC LOW. INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR
WHAT COULD BE A CLASSIC MINI-SUPERCELL EVENT. THE TRIPLE POINT
BY 18-21Z IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST CAM`S SHOW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
SPREAD THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST AS BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW
MOVE INTO E/NE EVENING. COOLER AIR...WITH EVEN A FEW HINTS OF 0C
850MB TEMPS...WRAP INTO THIS LOW TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION BAND
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL BE A CHILLY WET NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ANY
REMAINING PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO LOWER 40S
IN OUR SOUTH. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PCPN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALSO WILL BE INCREASING IN WAA ZONE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY ON THE HORIZON FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KOMA/KOFK FROM 19-21Z AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ARC NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IT`S
MOSTLY MVFR INITIALLY...BUT PROBABLY BECOMING IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALSO A COMPLICATED WIND FORECAST AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271157
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
657 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ELONGATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE
BASE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE
SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW AT 08Z LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY...THE
COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AND SHIFT NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE SFC LOW. INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR
WHAT COULD BE A CLASSIC MINI-SUPERCELL EVENT. THE TRIPLE POINT
BY 18-21Z IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST CAM`S SHOW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
SPREAD THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST AS BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW
MOVE INTO E/NE EVENING. COOLER AIR...WITH EVEN A FEW HINTS OF 0C
850MB TEMPS...WRAP INTO THIS LOW TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION BAND
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL BE A CHILLY WET NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ANY
REMAINING PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO LOWER 40S
IN OUR SOUTH. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PCPN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALSO WILL BE INCREASING IN WAA ZONE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY ON THE HORIZON FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY IFR AT ALL 3 SITES WITH RA. THE BAND OF
RA WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH OF THE KOMA/KLNK TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MRNG AND MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE IFR CIGS. THE RA AND
IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY TO CONT THROUGH THE MRNG AT KOFK. DVLPMNT OF
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTN AND
CHCS APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP. SHRA MAY CONT
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES TONIGHT. GUSTY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE
THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271157
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
657 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ELONGATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE
BASE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE
SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW AT 08Z LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY...THE
COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AND SHIFT NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE SFC LOW. INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR
WHAT COULD BE A CLASSIC MINI-SUPERCELL EVENT. THE TRIPLE POINT
BY 18-21Z IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST CAM`S SHOW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
SPREAD THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST AS BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW
MOVE INTO E/NE EVENING. COOLER AIR...WITH EVEN A FEW HINTS OF 0C
850MB TEMPS...WRAP INTO THIS LOW TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION BAND
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL BE A CHILLY WET NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ANY
REMAINING PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO LOWER 40S
IN OUR SOUTH. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PCPN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALSO WILL BE INCREASING IN WAA ZONE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY ON THE HORIZON FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY IFR AT ALL 3 SITES WITH RA. THE BAND OF
RA WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH OF THE KOMA/KLNK TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MRNG AND MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE IFR CIGS. THE RA AND
IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY TO CONT THROUGH THE MRNG AT KOFK. DVLPMNT OF
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTN AND
CHCS APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP. SHRA MAY CONT
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES TONIGHT. GUSTY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE
THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 270916
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
416 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ELONGATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE
BASE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE
SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW AT 08Z LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY...THE
COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AND SHIFT NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE SFC LOW. INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR
WHAT COULD BE A CLASSIC MINI-SUPERCELL EVENT. THE TRIPLE POINT
BY 18-21Z IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST CAM`S SHOW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
SPREAD THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST AS BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW
MOVE INTO E/NE EVENING. COOLER AIR...WITH EVEN A FEW HINTS OF 0C
850MB TEMPS...WRAP INTO THIS LOW TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION BAND
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL BE A CHILLY WET NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ANY
REMAINING PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO LOWER 40S
IN OUR SOUTH. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PCPN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALSO WILL BE INCREASING IN WAA ZONE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY ON THE HORIZON FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRETTY MESSY FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY E INTO
THE AREA. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 270444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
THE WY/CO BORDER...WITH ELONGATED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH CO/NM.
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK HAD ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LOW AND ALSO HAD
WEAKENED...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 95KT IN AZ/NM.  850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER
AND DRYLINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL TX.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT...8C+ MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
ACROSS EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL-EASTERN KS/OK...WITH UP TO 45KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 20C+ EXTENDED
THROUGH KS/OK INTO CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL MO...WITH LOWER LAPSE
RATES IN EASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS IN AREA AFFECTED BY MORNING
CONVECTION.  AT 18Z...SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB...WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF KSLN TO NEAR KEMP...AND LIKELY
SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EVIDENT FROM NEAR KCNK TO NEAR KMYZ TO NORTH OF
KFNB TO NEAR KICL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.  MORNING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
NEB/EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO THREW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN THAT
SUPPRESSED THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHWARD INTO KS.  SOME RECOVERY HAS
OCCURRED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GHOST OF A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB...THOUGH RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
AND UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR IS STILL IN CENTRAL KS.  WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AND RECOVERY...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THAT WARM
SECTOR TO RECOVER IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NEB...ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND ALL ATTENDANT THREATS.  NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR HAILERS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS CONVECTION GETS GOING.  THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS
CONDITIONAL ON DESTABILIZATION...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE INCLUDED IN A
TORNADO WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN NEB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING...AND WITH
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN NO HURRY TO EXIT...MAY REGENERATE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS.  HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
THREAT TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO CENTRAL NEB ON
WEDNESDAY...DRAWING A WARM SECTOR INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IA
IN THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH THREATS ARE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...RISK OF
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DOES EXIST...WITH THREATS FOR
HAIL...WIND...AND MAYBE EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO.  THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL ON GETTING SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY IN BREAKS
BETWEEN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.  RISK OF STORMS SHOULD WANE EARLIER IN
THE EVENING AS COOLER AIR DRAWS DOWN INTO EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...BUT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SHORT BREAK IN THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FINALLY GIVES US A
BREATHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
US...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER RETURN
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY AND MURKY PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW SLIDES TOWARD THE PLAINS...WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH LOW RISK FOR THUNDER BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN. LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY AROUND MONDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRETTY MESSY FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY E INTO
THE AREA. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT





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