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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251956
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
256 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Potential for periods of thunderstorms will extend through the
short term portion of the forecast. Good moisture and instability
is expected to remain across the region during this time frame as
a pair of upper troughs kick out a series of short waves across the
plains region.

Surface map at 19z showed an area of low pressure over northeast
South Dakota with a weak trough extending from the low into
northwest Nebraska. A second low was over south central Kansas
with a warm front extending into northeast Kansas and a dry line
stretching south into north central Texas. These two surface
features are expected to be the primary focus for thunderstorm
development into Thursday.

A few storms had already developed over far western Nebraska and
western South Dakota early this afternoon with short range models
showing them spreading east ahead of the Dakota surface trough
into the evening as an upper wave tracks toward the upper midwest.
Main focus then shifts to the south on Thursday and Thursday night
with Kansas system as warm front lifts north to vicinity of
southern Nebraska border by late afternoon. This boundary
continues to lift into eastern Nebraska during the evening
becoming stationary in a northeast to southwest orientation by
late evening into early Friday. Combination of stalled boundary
and high PW will allow strong chance of heavy rain event across
the area Thursday night, likely preceeded by severe weather event
late Thursday afternoon and evening. No headlines at this time but
will mention in HWO and blast message to increase awareness of the
potential.

Chance of storms will continue for Friday into Saturday as the
main upper trough moves across the lower Missouri valley.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper pattern flattens for a time behind the lower Missouri valley
trough Saturday night into Sunday but begins to amplify again
Sunday night into Monday. This will allow another extended period
of showers and thunderstorms to setup across the region through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday morning, outside of
any isolated thunderstorms that manage to pop up. That chance is
slim so was not mentioned in forecasts, but an unstable atmosphere
suggests hit-and-miss storms could fire late this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise a general south to southwest flow at or below
12kt can be expected with scattered to broken clouds between FL050
and Fl120.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251736
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Cluster of convection that moved out of northeast KS early this
morning continues to move through western Iowa, and may still be
producing wind gusts to 40 and some pea sized hail. Meanwhile, the
convection moving through north central Nebraska is already moving
into our area in northeast NE. This trails west southwest along
the Interstate 80 corridor all the way to northeast CO. High-res
convection allowing models (CAMs) all suggest that we`ll see
widespread showers and thunderstorms early this morning, but then
push this out of the area by noontime. thus have adjusted morning
pops to reflect this trend. Severe threat seems low this morning.

For the afternoon, am thinking it may be another dry day as no
significant shortwave is showing up on water vapor moving out of
the Rockies. CAMs suggest a dry afternoon as well, although convection
may try to fire along the weak surface trough in north central NE
by 21z, which could begin to move into northeast NE by 00z.

High res ARW/NMM models suggest storm chances could continue in
northeast NE this evening, and also a small chance in extreme
southeast NE and southwest IA. the surface trough does move into
northeast NE by midnight and beyond. Additional storms could
develop along/south of I80 midnight and beyond on the nose of the
low level jet. Any storms that develop this evening or overnight
would have a slight risk of becoming severe.

Thursday could be an active weather day even though the upper
trough is still spinning across the Rockies. The surface trough
takes up residence across our area, extending east northeast from
the lee cyclone that persists across the front range of Colorado.
Storm chances increase through the afternoon and may become
focused along the frontal boundary, with the potential for heavy
rain with training of storms along and south of the I80 corridor
by Thursday afternoon and night. Severe storms seem likely
Thursday with the entire region in a slight risk of severe
weather, and even an enhanced risk of storms southwest of Lincoln.

The stalled frontal boundary appears to get pushed northward on
Friday as the upper trough begins to move onto the plains. Storm
chances remain likely Friday into Friday night, with a continued
marginal risk of severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Storm chances continue Saturday across the region as the upper
trough finally begins to transition northeast and out of the area.
Believe Saturday night and Sunday morning should be mostly dry as
we are in between systems. We may begin to see the influence of
the next wave coming out of a mean southwestern US trough by
Sunday afternoon through Monday, with storm chances again in the
forecast through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday morning, outside of
any isolated thunderstorms that manage to pop up. That chance is
slim so was not mentioned in forecasts, but an unstable atmosphere
suggests hit-and-miss storms could fire late this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise a general south to southwest flow at or below
12kt can be expected with scattered to broken clouds between FL050
and Fl120.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Dergan





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251213
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
713 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Cluster of convection that moved out of northeast KS early this
morning continues to move through western Iowa, and may still be
producing wind gusts to 40 and some pea sized hail. Meanwhile, the
convection moving through north central Nebraska is already moving
into our area in northeast NE. This trails west southwest along
the Interstate 80 corridor all the way to northeast CO. High-res
convection allowing models (CAMs) all suggest that we`ll see
widespread showers and thunderstorms early this morning, but then
push this out of the area by noontime. thus have adjusted morning
pops to reflect this trend. Severe threat seems low this morning.

For the afternoon, am thinking it may be another dry day as no
significant shortwave is showing up on water vapor moving out of
the Rockies. CAMs suggest a dry afternoon as well, although convection
may try to fire along the weak surface trough in north central NE
by 21z, which could begin to move into northeast NE by 00z.

Highres ARW/NMM models suggest storm chances could continue in
northeast NE this evening, and also a small chance in extreme
southeast NE and southwest IA. the surface trough does move into
northeast NE by midnight and beyond. Additional storms could
develop along/south of I80 midnight and beyond on the nose of the
low level jet. Any storms that develop this evening or overnight
would have a slight risk of becoming severe.

Thursday could be an active weather day even though the upper
trough is still spinning across the Rockies. The surface trough
takes up residence across our area, extending east northeast from
the lee cyclone that persists across the front range of Colorado.
Storm chances increase through the afternoon and may become
focused along the frontal boundary, with the potential for heavy
rain with training of storms along and south of the I80 corridor
by Thursday afternoon and night. Severe storms seem likely
Thursday with the entire region in a slight risk of severe
weather, and even an enhanced risk of storms southwest of Lincoln.

The stalled frontal boundary appears to get pushed northward on
Friday as the upper trough begins to move onto the plains. Storm
chances remain likely Friday into Friday night, with a continued
marginal risk of severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Storm chances continue Saturday across the region as the upper
trough finally begins to transition northeast and out of the area.
Believe Saturday night and Sunday morning should be mostly dry as
we are in between systems. We may begin to see the influence of
the next wave coming out of a mean southwestern US trough by
Sunday afternoon through Monday, with storm chances again in the
forecast through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorm complex will move through eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa this morning. MVFR conditions may
occur in some of the precipitation areas. This activity is
expected to move across the region by 18z. After 18z, ceilings are
expected to be primarilly VFR. More thunderstorm activity is
forecast this evening after 02z. Convection is expected to develop
along a trough in Central Nebraska and move eastward. Again, MVFR
ceilings are possible in precipitation areas.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250516
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1216 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb analysis show weak
shortwave ridging overhead this afternoon behind a departing complex
now over Missouri. Southwesterly flow continues with a few
embedded weak shortwaves of interest. The first is over northeast
Colorado with another showing up across western Kansas where a few
lightning strikes have been noted.

Afternoon surface analysis shows area of low pressure over southeast
Colorado with very little in the way pressure differences across all
of Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Boundary layer moisture remains in
place with surface dewpoints fluctuating this afternoon and falling
slightly into the upper 50s across our western counties where
surface winds turned more southwesterly along a weak boundary.

Forecaster uncertainty remains high as a few waves of convection are
forecast to drift through the area as early as this evening. With
the lack of a strong forcing mechanism late this afternoon into this
evening, we continue to question some of the CAM solutions on
developing storms over the area before dark. It seems more likely
that storms that initiate across western Nebraska and parts of
Kansas would spread east/northeast across the forecast area
overnight tonight and continue into Wednesday morning. This being
said, with a primed and unstable airmass in place, cannot rule
anything out and so will continue monitor any convective
developments closely. Thunderstorms that roll through overnight
should continue into Wednesday morning and exit by afternoon.

The cycle continues as several embedded shortwaves drive through
southwesterly flow aloft and interact with several boundaries left
over from previous convection. A stronger synoptic front will
extend northeast from lee cyclone over western Kansas into
southeast Nebraska on Thursday which will be the focus for strong
thunderstorms Thursday and again on Friday. As has been the case
in the past couple days, high moisture content could lead to very
heavy rain in the stronger convection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

By Friday night, a shortwave trough is forecast to extend across
western Nebraska and Kansas and slide northeast into the Missouri
River Valley by 00Z Sunday. Lee surface cyclone will also slide
east/northeast across Kansas Friday through Saturday with an
eastward extending warm front that will continue to be the
primary focus for thunderstorm development.

Shortwave ridging is expected over the area by mid day Sunday with
persistent southwesterly upper level flow into next week. Sunday
looks like our best shot at a dry forecast period with pops entering
into the picture again Sunday night as a series of shortwaves roll
northeast through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

A loosely organized bowing complex of storms is spreading
northeast across portions of southeast Nebraska, potentially
impacting KLNK within the next hour. A second linear MCS over
central Nebraska will reach KOFK about 09z, KLNK around 10z and
KOMA by about 11z. Have included a mention of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities with the passage of these storms. In the wake of the
storms, MVFR ceilings could linger into Wednesday afternoon before
becoming VFR.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead





000
FXUS63 KOAX 242325
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb analysis show weak
shortwave ridging overhead this afternoon behind a departing complex
now over Missouri. Southwesterly flow continues with a few
embedded weak shortwaves of interest. The first is over northeast
Colorado with another showing up across western Kansas where a few
lightning strikes have been noted.

Afternoon surface analysis shows area of low pressure over southeast
Colorado with very little in the way pressure differences across all
of Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Boundary layer moisture remains in
place with surface dewpoints fluctuating this afternoon and falling
slightly into the upper 50s across our western counties where
surface winds turned more southwesterly along a weak boundary.

Forecaster uncertainty remains high as a few waves of convection are
forecast to drift through the area as early as this evening. With
the lack of a strong forcing mechanism late this afternoon into this
evening, we continue to question some of the CAM solutions on
developing storms over the area before dark. It seems more likely
that storms that initiate across western Nebraska and parts of
Kansas would spread east/northeast across the forecast area
overnight tonight and continue into Wednesday morning. This being
said, with a primed and unstable airmass in place, cannot rule
anything out and so will continue monitor any convective
developments closely. Thunderstorms that roll through overnight
should continue into Wednesday morning and exit by afternoon.

The cycle continues as several embedded shortwaves drive through
southwesterly flow aloft and interact with several boundaries left
over from previous convection. A stronger synoptic front will
extend northeast from lee cyclone over western Kansas into
southeast Nebraska on Thursday which will be the focus for strong
thunderstorms Thursday and again on Friday. As has been the case
in the past couple days, high moisture content could lead to very
heavy rain in the stronger convection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

By Friday night, a shortwave trough is forecast to extend across
western Nebraska and Kansas and slide northeast into the Missouri
River Valley by 00Z Sunday. Lee surface cyclone will also slide
east/northeast across Kansas Friday through Saturday with an
eastward extending warm front that will continue to be the
primary focus for thunderstorm development.

Shortwave ridging is expected over the area by mid day Sunday with
persistent southwesterly upper level flow into next week. Sunday
looks like our best shot at a dry forecast period with pops entering
into the picture again Sunday night as a series of shortwaves roll
northeast through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Recent trends in visible satellite imagery indicate an agitated
cumulus field from west of KLNK and KBIE to near KAUH. Latest
surface observations indicate generally light winds with the best
low-level convergence nearer to the Platte river. The upshot is
that we are uncertain whether storms will arise from this
convection. The better potential appears to be after 03 or 04z
owing to increased moisture flux and isentropic ascent along the
strengthening low-level jet. As such, TEMPO groups for
thunderstorms have been included beginning at 04z for KLNK, 05z at
KOFK and 06z at KOMA. Thunderstorm activity will likely linger in
the vicinity of all TAF sites overnight. We have maintained
prevailing VFR conditions with MVFR ceilings and visibilities
around the thunderstorms.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead





000
FXUS63 KOAX 241711
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1211 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Thunderstorms that had been over parts of southeast Nebraska this
morning had moved out and clouds continue to decrease. Made a few
changes to grids for this afternoon...decreasing cloud cover but
also tweaking temperatures and winds. Looks like better chance of
storms will be after mid evening...possibly in some of our western
counties. Experimental HRRR will not be available until later
this evening. 15z SPC HRRR output seemed reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Latest radar trends show storms will move out of the County
Warning Area by 9z. Along, but mostly south of, the
Nebraska/Kansas border storms will continue for the next few hours.
The 00z upper air maps indicate the area remains under large scale
southwest flow with the main upper level trough just now coming
onshore along the western CONUS. Several shortwaves will continue
to push through the area, creating an unsettled weather pattern
through the week. A significant amount of moisture is in place
across the region as +10C 850mb dew points have surged north, well
into Minnesota in fact. While a severe threat exists most days
this week, the potential for very heavy rainfall shouldn`t be
lost. Where the heavy rain and subsequent flooding will occur
will depend mostly on where storms develop and if any repetitive
storm motions occur.

For today the big question is when, and if, new development will
occur. The shortwave trough responsible for the previous nights
weather will push east into central Iowa early this morning. A
temporary rise in mid-level heights should allow for a lull in
precipitation this morning. Opted to slowly increase
precipitation potential by this afternoon as the next shortwave
enters central and eastern Nebraska. Some convective models keep
the area mostly dry, while others bring a large MCS across eastern
Nebraska and into western Iowa. Despite the uncertainty feel
comfortable enough to have high precipitation chances by late this
evening through the overnight hours.

With little change in the weather pattern on Wednesday or
Thursday, expect more of the same. Diminished precipitation
chances through the morning, then new development by afternoon
with continued storms through the night. A significant heavy
rainfall threat will exist these days as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

For Thursday night the large scale pattern continues to point to
a heavy rainfall threat, and probably more so than previous days.
A strong low-level jet should allow for significant moisture
transport to begin sometime after 03Z Friday. Placement of the
surface warm front will be key to pinning down where the biggest
threat is. Right now the best available moisture, as shown by high
PWAT anomalies, is situated across far eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. Thereafter there is little opportunity for dry
weather until late Saturday night when the main upper trough has
pushed through the area. This appear short-lived as southwest flow
develops again as another western trough forms, putting the area
once again into an unsettled pattern for Sunday night and possibly
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Generally look for VFR conditions until thunderstorms move in or
develop later this evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible in
storms...possibly down into the IFR category especially for
visibility. MVFR ceiling could linger much of Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Pearson
LONG TERM...Pearson
AVIATION...Miller





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240517
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1217 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecaster uncertainty remains high as several disturbances drift
into the region through the holiday weekend. It is hard to find any
12 hour period that has little to no chance of thunderstorms.

Initial wave of weak convection has pushed through the CWA and
second wave is beginning to show itself along a very weak low level
boundary. A weak shortwave currently over southwest Nebraska will
continue to drift northeast and approach the area. A very moist
boundary layer in addition to daytime heating has allowed an
instability axis to extend across the CWA with MUCAPE around
2000J/KG. Despite weak low level convergence, 40-45kts of deep layer
shear could be enough to sustain an isolated severe threat for
hail/wind. Also have a report west of our CWA of a brief landspout
tornado along this weak boundary. High-res CAMs continue isolated
convection along this area of weak convergence and then transition
it into an MCS across southeast Nebraska through the evening hours.

Much of Tuesday morning looks dry but pops are reintroduced again
Tuesday afternoon as a low pressure trough continues to deepen
across the central High Plains with continued southwesterly mid
level flow over our region. This will send a couple of shortwaves
into the area during peak heating where a continued very moist and
increasingly unstable airmass resides. Better focus for deeper
convection will be across the Nebraska panhandle in association with
a stronger shortwave trough. This activity could maintain itself and
spread east into Wednesday morning but many uncertainties remain.
PW`s remain very high and heavy rain continues to be a threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast uncertainty remains high through the long term period as we
move into the holiday weekend. By Thursday night the primary mid
level shortwave axis will extend across eastern Colorado and drift
northeast across central Nebraska Thursday or Friday with the 12Z
operational ECMWF timing a bit slower than the 12z operational GFS.
In any case, lee side cyclone will deepen over eastern Colorado with
a northeastward extending warm front draping across the CWA Thursday
night into Friday. Instability ahead of this wave will be very
high and could lead to a fairly good shot for severe wx if timing
all works out.

Sporadic chances for scattered convection will continue through
Memorial Day weekend as several embedded shortwaves move through
southwesterly flow into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Thunderstorms will move east of KOMA and KLNK TAF sites early in
the period. Then a period of VFR conditions will occur before MVFR
cigs/vsbys overspread KLNK/KOMA...with some brief IFR vsbys in fog
possible between 10Z and 15Z. KOFK will likely see IFR vsbys in
fog during that time as well. Expect vsbys and cigs to improve to
VFR during 15Z to 18Z timeframe. The attention turns to the
potential for thunderstorms again Tuesday afternoon or evening.
There is some question exactly when storms will fire near TAF
sites, with the most likely time after 00Z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Dergan





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230436
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Latest water vapor imagery indicates a closed low over southern
Alberta with an amplified ridge to our east extending along the
Mississippi River Valley. In the lower levels...the 850mb moist
axis stretched north from western Texas into the western Dakotas
and continues to slowly shift east ahead of the main upper low.
18Z subjective surface analysis showed low pressure centered over
Colorado with large ridge of high pressure over the Mississippi
River valley. Surface dewpoints continue to increase over the area
with a broad area of 65+ extending across western/central Kansas
and lower 60s across all of central Nebraska. These lower to mid
60`s dewpoints will continue to spread northeast into the CWA by
Monday afternoon. In the meantime, a dryline was noted across the
High Plains with an additional weak surface boundary extending across
western Nebraska into south central South Dakota along which some
convection has initiated in north central Nebraska. With some
hesitation, will leave our evening forecast dry as any convection
to our west should drift northeast. We do introduce pops in the
overnight period...primarily after 06Z as vort max associated with
trailing upper trough sparks a convective complex over the Black
Hills region. This activity will likely be sustained by 40-50kt
southwesterly low level jet overhead. Convection will continue to
slide southeast along weak frontal boundary through the morning
and into the afternoon hours. This activity will most likely leave
a mess of outflow boundaries draped across the region where
convection could later focus.

A continued complex, lower confidence forecast continues Monday
night into Tuesday as a series of vort max`s moves through
southwesterly flow aloft. A surface warm front is progged to
extend east from the eastern Colorado surface low across northern
Kansas by Tuesday morning. The advancement of this boundary is
still somewhat uncertain but should be the focus for convection
into Wednesday. In any event...PW`s are are forecast to be
150-175% of normal so heavy rain is certainly a
possibility...especially across our southern counties in closer
proximity to the warm front. Our area has been outlooked in the
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in addition to SPC`s Slight
Risk outlooks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

At the beginning of the period, modest southwesterly upper level
flow will continue over the Central Plains region ahead of an
upper low moving just to the south of the Great Basin. This
feature is forecast to open as it moves east into the Four Corners
providing continued southwest flow to the area. The shortwave
trough is progged to move across eastern Nebraska/western Iowa
sometime either Friday or Saturday. The 12z ECMWF has slowed this
feature down from previous runs. Model uncertainty increases
behind the above mentioned trough but overall mid/upper level
pattern remains southwesterly with unsettled weather continuing
into Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Conditions are expected to deteriorate through 09z as line of
storms over central Nebraska moves east in advance of a cold
front. MVFR cigs and vsbys are expected with the storms as they move
into the area with cigs remaining MVFR into the morning through
about 16z. Short range models stall front over eastern Nebraska
after 16z so improvement in conditions may be slow in coming with
potential for additional storms especially for KLNK and KOMA after
21Z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Fobert





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