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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302247
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
547 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE
FORECAST TREND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STALLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE LESS WIND AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER BELOW THE EXTREME
CATEGORY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
RAPIDLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY START OUT
ELEVATED WITH CAPPING INITIALLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INDICATED DURING THE EVENING
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO FEED IT
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FORCING. SYSTEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM INDICATED BY
MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUE MRNG
BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302247
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
547 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE
FORECAST TREND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STALLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE LESS WIND AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER BELOW THE EXTREME
CATEGORY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
RAPIDLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY START OUT
ELEVATED WITH CAPPING INITIALLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INDICATED DURING THE EVENING
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO FEED IT
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FORCING. SYSTEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM INDICATED BY
MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUE MRNG
BUT REMAIN BELOW 12 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 302005
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE
FORECAST TREND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STALLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE LESS WIND AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER BELOW THE EXTREME
CATEGORY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
RAPIDLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY START OUT
ELEVATED WITH CAPPING INITIALLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INDICATED DURING THE EVENING
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO FEED IT
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FORCING. SYSTEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM INDICATED BY
MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 15G25KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KOFK AND THIS EVENING AT
KOMA/KLNK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302005
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE
FORECAST TREND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STALLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE LESS WIND AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER BELOW THE EXTREME
CATEGORY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
RAPIDLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY START OUT
ELEVATED WITH CAPPING INITIALLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INDICATED DURING THE EVENING
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO FEED IT
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FORCING. SYSTEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM INDICATED BY
MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 15G25KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KOFK AND THIS EVENING AT
KOMA/KLNK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301754
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1254 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ENSUES
THEN WITH STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING
THE AFTN HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO
AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...AND DEEP LYR
SHEAR MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500 MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH UPPER
SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 15G25KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KOFK AND THIS EVENING AT
KOMA/KLNK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301754
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1254 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ENSUES
THEN WITH STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING
THE AFTN HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO
AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...AND DEEP LYR
SHEAR MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500 MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH UPPER
SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 15G25KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KOFK AND THIS EVENING AT
KOMA/KLNK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301754
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1254 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ENSUES
THEN WITH STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING
THE AFTN HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO
AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...AND DEEP LYR
SHEAR MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500 MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH UPPER
SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 15G25KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KOFK AND THIS EVENING AT
KOMA/KLNK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ENSUES
THEN WITH STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING
THE AFTN HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO
AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...AND DEEP LYR
SHEAR MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500 MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH UPPER
SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VARIABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST OR NORTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ENSUES
THEN WITH STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING
THE AFTN HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO
AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...AND DEEP LYR
SHEAR MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500 MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH UPPER
SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VARIABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST OR NORTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ENSUES
THEN WITH STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING
THE AFTN HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO
AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...AND DEEP LYR
SHEAR MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500 MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH UPPER
SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VARIABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST OR NORTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ENSUES
THEN WITH STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING
THE AFTN HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO
AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...AND DEEP LYR
SHEAR MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500 MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH UPPER
SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VARIABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST OR NORTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300842
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CAB BORDER ENSUES THEN WITH
STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING THE AFTN
HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY. AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF
STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000J/KG...AND DEEP LYR SHEAR
MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH WITH
UPPER SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
ON MON WITH SOME GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. A SFC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300842
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CAB BORDER ENSUES THEN WITH
STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING THE AFTN
HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY. AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF
STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000J/KG...AND DEEP LYR SHEAR
MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH WITH
UPPER SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
ON MON WITH SOME GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. A SFC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300842
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CAB BORDER ENSUES THEN WITH
STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING THE AFTN
HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY. AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF
STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000J/KG...AND DEEP LYR SHEAR
MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH WITH
UPPER SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
ON MON WITH SOME GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. A SFC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300842
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CAB BORDER ENSUES THEN WITH
STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING THE AFTN
HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY. AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF
STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000J/KG...AND DEEP LYR SHEAR
MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH WITH
UPPER SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
ON MON WITH SOME GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. A SFC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300446
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY
EASTWARD...SETTING US UP FOR MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN MN/EASTERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...WITH UP TO 160M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
AT 850MB...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET IN AR/MS. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE
NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY...SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 40-45KT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.  SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS LOOSENING SLIGHTLY...WITH SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z IN
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEASTWARD IN ONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS...MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AS MIXING  REACHES AROUND
800MB...BUT STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE RIDGE.
CONDITIONS MAY REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER CRITERIA...AS RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT.  TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES TODAY AND TO GIVE ONE MORE
LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN LOWER WIND
SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY AFTEROON...WITH SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS BRINGING MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
AROUND EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL NEB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE UNDER CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT
ITSELF...WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT LINEAR CONVECTION THAN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  IN EITHER CASE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO BE LIKELY TO COINCIDE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW
NOT JUST A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL GO EASY ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL A DAY-4 EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS INSTABILITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOULD WANE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EASILY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA BEFORE 12Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME DRY PERIOD ON
THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND
REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT
MOST...IT WOULD BE A LIGHT AND NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN.  HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS NOT VERY CLEAR GIVEN
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
ON MON WITH SOME GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. A SFC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300446
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY
EASTWARD...SETTING US UP FOR MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN MN/EASTERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...WITH UP TO 160M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
AT 850MB...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET IN AR/MS. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE
NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY...SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 40-45KT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.  SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS LOOSENING SLIGHTLY...WITH SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z IN
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEASTWARD IN ONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS...MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AS MIXING  REACHES AROUND
800MB...BUT STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE RIDGE.
CONDITIONS MAY REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER CRITERIA...AS RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT.  TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES TODAY AND TO GIVE ONE MORE
LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN LOWER WIND
SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY AFTEROON...WITH SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS BRINGING MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
AROUND EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL NEB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE UNDER CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT
ITSELF...WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT LINEAR CONVECTION THAN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  IN EITHER CASE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO BE LIKELY TO COINCIDE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW
NOT JUST A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL GO EASY ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL A DAY-4 EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS INSTABILITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOULD WANE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EASILY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA BEFORE 12Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME DRY PERIOD ON
THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND
REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT
MOST...IT WOULD BE A LIGHT AND NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN.  HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS NOT VERY CLEAR GIVEN
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
ON MON WITH SOME GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. A SFC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY
EASTWARD...SETTING US UP FOR MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN MN/EASTERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...WITH UP TO 160M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
AT 850MB...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET IN AR/MS. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE
NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY...SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 40-45KT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.  SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS LOOSENING SLIGHTLY...WITH SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z IN
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEASTWARD IN ONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS...MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AS MIXING  REACHES AROUND
800MB...BUT STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE RIDGE.
CONDITIONS MAY REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER CRITERIA...AS RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT.  TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES TODAY AND TO GIVE ONE MORE
LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN LOWER WIND
SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY AFTEROON...WITH SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS BRINGING MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
AROUND EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL NEB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE UNDER CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT
ITSELF...WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT LINEAR CONVECTION THAN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  IN EITHER CASE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO BE LIKELY TO COINCIDE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW
NOT JUST A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL GO EASY ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL A DAY-4 EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS INSTABILITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOULD WANE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EASILY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA BEFORE 12Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME DRY PERIOD ON
THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND
REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT
MOST...IT WOULD BE A LIGHT AND NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN.  HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS NOT VERY CLEAR GIVEN
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE LATE
MRNG AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY
EASTWARD...SETTING US UP FOR MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN MN/EASTERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...WITH UP TO 160M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
AT 850MB...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET IN AR/MS. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE
NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY...SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 40-45KT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.  SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS LOOSENING SLIGHTLY...WITH SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z IN
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEASTWARD IN ONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS...MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AS MIXING  REACHES AROUND
800MB...BUT STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE RIDGE.
CONDITIONS MAY REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER CRITERIA...AS RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT.  TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES TODAY AND TO GIVE ONE MORE
LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN LOWER WIND
SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY AFTEROON...WITH SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS BRINGING MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
AROUND EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL NEB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE UNDER CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT
ITSELF...WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT LINEAR CONVECTION THAN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  IN EITHER CASE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO BE LIKELY TO COINCIDE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW
NOT JUST A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL GO EASY ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL A DAY-4 EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS INSTABILITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOULD WANE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EASILY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA BEFORE 12Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME DRY PERIOD ON
THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND
REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT
MOST...IT WOULD BE A LIGHT AND NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN.  HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS NOT VERY CLEAR GIVEN
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE LATE
MRNG AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 292308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY
EASTWARD...SETTING US UP FOR MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN MN/EASTERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...WITH UP TO 160M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
AT 850MB...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET IN AR/MS. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE
NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY...SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 40-45KT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.  SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS LOOSENING SLIGHTLY...WITH SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z IN
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEASTWARD IN ONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS...MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AS MIXING  REACHES AROUND
800MB...BUT STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE RIDGE.
CONDITIONS MAY REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER CRITERIA...AS RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT.  TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES TODAY AND TO GIVE ONE MORE
LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN LOWER WIND
SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY AFTEROON...WITH SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS BRINGING MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
AROUND EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL NEB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE UNDER CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT
ITSELF...WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT LINEAR CONVECTION THAN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  IN EITHER CASE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO BE LIKELY TO COINCIDE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW
NOT JUST A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL GO EASY ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL A DAY-4 EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS INSTABILITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOULD WANE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EASILY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA BEFORE 12Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME DRY PERIOD ON
THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND
REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT
MOST...IT WOULD BE A LIGHT AND NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN.  HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS NOT VERY CLEAR GIVEN
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE LATE
MRNG AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY
EASTWARD...SETTING US UP FOR MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN MN/EASTERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...WITH UP TO 160M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
AT 850MB...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET IN AR/MS. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE
NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY...SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 40-45KT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.  SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS LOOSENING SLIGHTLY...WITH SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z IN
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEASTWARD IN ONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS...MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AS MIXING  REACHES AROUND
800MB...BUT STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE RIDGE.
CONDITIONS MAY REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER CRITERIA...AS RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT.  TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES TODAY AND TO GIVE ONE MORE
LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN LOWER WIND
SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY AFTEROON...WITH SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS BRINGING MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
AROUND EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL NEB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE UNDER CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT
ITSELF...WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT LINEAR CONVECTION THAN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  IN EITHER CASE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO BE LIKELY TO COINCIDE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW
NOT JUST A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL GO EASY ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL A DAY-4 EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS INSTABILITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOULD WANE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EASILY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA BEFORE 12Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME DRY PERIOD ON
THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND
REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT
MOST...IT WOULD BE A LIGHT AND NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN.  HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS NOT VERY CLEAR GIVEN
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE LATE
MRNG AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 292006
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY
EASTWARD...SETTING US UP FOR MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN MN/EASTERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...WITH UP TO 160M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
AT 850MB...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET IN AR/MS. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE
NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY...SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 40-45KT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.  SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS LOOSENING SLIGHTLY...WITH SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z IN
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEASTWARD IN ONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS...MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AS MIXING  REACHES AROUND
800MB...BUT STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE RIDGE.
CONDITIONS MAY REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER CRITERIA...AS RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT.  TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES TODAY AND TO GIVE ONE MORE
LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN LOWER WIND
SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY AFTEROON...WITH SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS BRINGING MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
AROUND EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL NEB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE UNDER CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT
ITSELF...WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT LINEAR CONVECTION THAN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  IN EITHER CASE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO BE LIKELY TO COINCIDE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW
NOT JUST A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL GO EASY ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL A DAY-4 EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS INSTABILITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOULD WANE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EASILY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA BEFORE 12Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME DRY PERIOD ON
THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND
REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT
MOST...IT WOULD BE A LIGHT AND NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN.  HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS NOT VERY CLEAR GIVEN
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS. ALSO A
DECK OF BKN-OVC CIGS FL030-050 THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS
DRIFT SOUTHEAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...NIETFELD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292006
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY
EASTWARD...SETTING US UP FOR MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN MN/EASTERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...WITH UP TO 160M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
AT 850MB...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET IN AR/MS. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE
NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY...SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 40-45KT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.  SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS LOOSENING SLIGHTLY...WITH SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z IN
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEASTWARD IN ONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS...MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AS MIXING  REACHES AROUND
800MB...BUT STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE RIDGE.
CONDITIONS MAY REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER CRITERIA...AS RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT.  TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES TODAY AND TO GIVE ONE MORE
LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN LOWER WIND
SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY AFTEROON...WITH SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS BRINGING MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
AROUND EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL NEB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE UNDER CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT
ITSELF...WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT LINEAR CONVECTION THAN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  IN EITHER CASE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO BE LIKELY TO COINCIDE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW
NOT JUST A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL GO EASY ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL A DAY-4 EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS INSTABILITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOULD WANE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EASILY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA BEFORE 12Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME DRY PERIOD ON
THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND
REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT
MOST...IT WOULD BE A LIGHT AND NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN.  HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS NOT VERY CLEAR GIVEN
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS. ALSO A
DECK OF BKN-OVC CIGS FL030-050 THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS
DRIFT SOUTHEAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...NIETFELD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 292006
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

POTENT TROUGH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS PULLING AWAY
EASTWARD...SETTING US UP FOR MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN MN/EASTERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...WITH UP TO 160M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
AT 850MB...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET IN AR/MS. 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KT WERE
NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/IA THROUGH KS...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY...SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHED 40-45KT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.  SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS LOOSENING SLIGHTLY...WITH SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z IN
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEASTWARD IN ONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS...MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AS MIXING  REACHES AROUND
800MB...BUT STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE RIDGE.
CONDITIONS MAY REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER CRITERIA...AS RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT.  TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES TODAY AND TO GIVE ONE MORE
LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS GIVEN LOWER WIND
SPEEDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY AFTEROON...WITH SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS BRINGING MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
AROUND EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL NEB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE UNDER CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONT...NOT TO MENTION THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT
ITSELF...WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT LINEAR CONVECTION THAN
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  IN EITHER CASE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO BE LIKELY TO COINCIDE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW
NOT JUST A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL GO EASY ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL A DAY-4 EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS INSTABILITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SHOULD WANE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EASILY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA BEFORE 12Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME DRY PERIOD ON
THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND
REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AT
MOST...IT WOULD BE A LIGHT AND NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN.  HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS NOT VERY CLEAR GIVEN
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS AND RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS. ALSO A
DECK OF BKN-OVC CIGS FL030-050 THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS
DRIFT SOUTHEAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...NIETFELD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291728
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST UPDATES TODAY HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST WIND GUSTS A BIT HIGHER
MOST AREAS...BUT ALSO TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DROPPED A FEW DEGREES WITH THE THICK CLOUD DECK THAT HAS SETTLED
IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S THERE. STILL EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS. ALSO A
DECK OF BKN-OVC CIGS FL030-050 THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS
DRIFT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE VERY GUSTY WINDS
AND THE DRY FUELS. FIRE DANGER IS IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA... EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDS
TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADJUSTMENTS OR PERHAPS ENDING
EARLY.

CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NIETFELD
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...NIETFELD
FIRE WEATHER...NIETFELD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291728
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST UPDATES TODAY HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST WIND GUSTS A BIT HIGHER
MOST AREAS...BUT ALSO TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DROPPED A FEW DEGREES WITH THE THICK CLOUD DECK THAT HAS SETTLED
IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S THERE. STILL EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS. ALSO A
DECK OF BKN-OVC CIGS FL030-050 THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS
DRIFT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE VERY GUSTY WINDS
AND THE DRY FUELS. FIRE DANGER IS IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA... EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDS
TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADJUSTMENTS OR PERHAPS ENDING
EARLY.

CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NIETFELD
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...NIETFELD
FIRE WEATHER...NIETFELD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291728
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST UPDATES TODAY HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST WIND GUSTS A BIT HIGHER
MOST AREAS...BUT ALSO TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DROPPED A FEW DEGREES WITH THE THICK CLOUD DECK THAT HAS SETTLED
IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S THERE. STILL EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS. ALSO A
DECK OF BKN-OVC CIGS FL030-050 THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS
DRIFT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE VERY GUSTY WINDS
AND THE DRY FUELS. FIRE DANGER IS IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA... EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDS
TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADJUSTMENTS OR PERHAPS ENDING
EARLY.

CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NIETFELD
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...NIETFELD
FIRE WEATHER...NIETFELD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291414
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
914 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE LLWS THIS MORNING FOR KOMA AND KLNK. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THOSE LOCATIONS LATE MORNING BUT
PRIOR TO THAT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH WITH WINDS AT
FL020 NORTHWEST AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. ALSO EXPECTING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDS FL035-040 TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE TAF SITES
TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL NEB COUNTIES SOUTH. ALL OF SOUTHWEST IA IS NOW
INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>067-078.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NIETFELD
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...NIETFELD
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291414
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
914 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE LLWS THIS MORNING FOR KOMA AND KLNK. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THOSE LOCATIONS LATE MORNING BUT
PRIOR TO THAT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH WITH WINDS AT
FL020 NORTHWEST AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. ALSO EXPECTING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDS FL035-040 TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE TAF SITES
TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL NEB COUNTIES SOUTH. ALL OF SOUTHWEST IA IS NOW
INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>067-078.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NIETFELD
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...NIETFELD
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291307 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
807 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A SEWD BOUND FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NERN
NEB WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KOFK. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW AND EXPECT WIND SHIFT AT
BOTH TERMINALS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTN 13Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX BY LATE THIS AFTN THEN WITH VRB05KT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 804 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL NEB COUNTIES SOUTH. ALL OF SOUTHWEST IA IS NOW
INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>067-078.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291307 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
807 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A SEWD BOUND FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NERN
NEB WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KOFK. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW AND EXPECT WIND SHIFT AT
BOTH TERMINALS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTN 13Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX BY LATE THIS AFTN THEN WITH VRB05KT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 804 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL NEB COUNTIES SOUTH. ALL OF SOUTHWEST IA IS NOW
INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>067-078.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291307 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
807 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A SEWD BOUND FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NERN
NEB WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KOFK. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW AND EXPECT WIND SHIFT AT
BOTH TERMINALS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTN 13Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX BY LATE THIS AFTN THEN WITH VRB05KT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 804 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL NEB COUNTIES SOUTH. ALL OF SOUTHWEST IA IS NOW
INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>067-078.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291307 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
807 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A SEWD BOUND FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NERN
NEB WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KOFK. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW AND EXPECT WIND SHIFT AT
BOTH TERMINALS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTN 13Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX BY LATE THIS AFTN THEN WITH VRB05KT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 804 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL NEB COUNTIES SOUTH. ALL OF SOUTHWEST IA IS NOW
INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     050>053-065>067-078.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291131
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A SEWD BOUND FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NERN
NEB WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KOFK. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW AND EXPECT WIND SHIFT AT
BOTH TERMINALS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTN 13Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX BY LATE THIS AFTN THEN WITH VRB05KT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067-078.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291131
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A SEWD BOUND FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NERN
NEB WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KOFK. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW AND EXPECT WIND SHIFT AT
BOTH TERMINALS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTN 13Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX BY LATE THIS AFTN THEN WITH VRB05KT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067-078.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291131
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A SEWD BOUND FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NERN
NEB WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KOFK. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW AND EXPECT WIND SHIFT AT
BOTH TERMINALS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTN 13Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX BY LATE THIS AFTN THEN WITH VRB05KT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067-078.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291131
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A SEWD BOUND FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NERN
NEB WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KOFK. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW AND EXPECT WIND SHIFT AT
BOTH TERMINALS TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTN 13Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX BY LATE THIS AFTN THEN WITH VRB05KT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067-078.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVEENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30KT AND BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN EVEN STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING INTO THE
25 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. CIGS NEAR FL050 ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND A RAIN SHOWER AS THE FRONT PASSES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO BELOW 12KT ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067-078.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVEENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30KT AND BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN EVEN STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING INTO THE
25 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. CIGS NEAR FL050 ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND A RAIN SHOWER AS THE FRONT PASSES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO BELOW 12KT ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067-078.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVEENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30KT AND BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN EVEN STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING INTO THE
25 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. CIGS NEAR FL050 ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND A RAIN SHOWER AS THE FRONT PASSES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO BELOW 12KT ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067-078.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVEENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30KT AND BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN EVEN STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING INTO THE
25 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. CIGS NEAR FL050 ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND A RAIN SHOWER AS THE FRONT PASSES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO BELOW 12KT ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR
BEHAVIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR
CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067-078.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290446
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MILDER WEATHER IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE
EASTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
NOTED IN BC/WA/OR...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 140M ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  UPPER-LEVEL JET OF 100KT+ WRAPPED FROM THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH AROUND ITS BASE...WITH UP TO 180KT AHEAD OF IT IN
NEW ENGLAND.  850MB TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED FROM ND THROUGH SD/ND/KS
TOWARD OK. CONUS WAS PARTICULARLY DRY AT 850MB FOR MARCH...WITH
ONLY ONE SITE IN WA /KOTX/ WITH A DEWPOINT EVEN ABOVE 0C. SURFACE
LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN AB...WITH SURFACE HIGH IN
IL/IN...AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS
TOMORROW...AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY.  POTENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN.  LOWER AND MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE REGION...BUT WAVE
DOES SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE
WEAK INSTABILITY /UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG MUCAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE
LI/...HAVE MENTIONED PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS RATHER THAN RAIN...BUT
DID KEEP OUT THUNDER MENTION AS INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK.  BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS...BUT DID ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR TOMORROW.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA
OF 20% AND HAVE KEPT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OUT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN EARNEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING DRY...DO THINK
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG IN AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH JUST YET...BUT WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT
LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ALLOWING WARMING FOR ONE MORE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA.  HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  WITH MOISTURE FINALLY
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  IT IS MARCH...AND MOVING A COLD FRONT
INTO AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS USUALLY A
TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO...THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FRONT IS
NOT TOO QUICK TO EXIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE A
HEALTHY SPRING RAIN OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER A DRY PART OF THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SOME KIND OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF A MID-
LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN KS/MO. GFS IS QUITE A
BIT COLDER THAN ECMWF/GEM AND WOULD POINT TOWARD FROZEN
PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED WITH
MODEL BLENDS CLOSER TO MILDER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A DRY AND COOL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30KT AND BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN EVEN STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING INTO THE
25 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. CIGS NEAR FL050 ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND A RAIN SHOWER AS THE FRONT PASSES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO BELOW 12KT ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290446
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MILDER WEATHER IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE
EASTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
NOTED IN BC/WA/OR...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 140M ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  UPPER-LEVEL JET OF 100KT+ WRAPPED FROM THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH AROUND ITS BASE...WITH UP TO 180KT AHEAD OF IT IN
NEW ENGLAND.  850MB TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED FROM ND THROUGH SD/ND/KS
TOWARD OK. CONUS WAS PARTICULARLY DRY AT 850MB FOR MARCH...WITH
ONLY ONE SITE IN WA /KOTX/ WITH A DEWPOINT EVEN ABOVE 0C. SURFACE
LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN AB...WITH SURFACE HIGH IN
IL/IN...AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS
TOMORROW...AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY.  POTENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN.  LOWER AND MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE REGION...BUT WAVE
DOES SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE
WEAK INSTABILITY /UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG MUCAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE
LI/...HAVE MENTIONED PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS RATHER THAN RAIN...BUT
DID KEEP OUT THUNDER MENTION AS INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK.  BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS...BUT DID ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR TOMORROW.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA
OF 20% AND HAVE KEPT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OUT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN EARNEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING DRY...DO THINK
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG IN AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH JUST YET...BUT WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT
LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ALLOWING WARMING FOR ONE MORE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA.  HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  WITH MOISTURE FINALLY
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  IT IS MARCH...AND MOVING A COLD FRONT
INTO AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS USUALLY A
TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO...THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FRONT IS
NOT TOO QUICK TO EXIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE A
HEALTHY SPRING RAIN OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER A DRY PART OF THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SOME KIND OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF A MID-
LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN KS/MO. GFS IS QUITE A
BIT COLDER THAN ECMWF/GEM AND WOULD POINT TOWARD FROZEN
PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED WITH
MODEL BLENDS CLOSER TO MILDER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A DRY AND COOL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30KT AND BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN EVEN STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING INTO THE
25 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. CIGS NEAR FL050 ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND A RAIN SHOWER AS THE FRONT PASSES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO BELOW 12KT ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282336
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
636 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MILDER WEATHER IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE
EASTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
NOTED IN BC/WA/OR...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 140M ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  UPPER-LEVEL JET OF 100KT+ WRAPPED FROM THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH AROUND ITS BASE...WITH UP TO 180KT AHEAD OF IT IN
NEW ENGLAND.  850MB TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED FROM ND THROUGH SD/ND/KS
TOWARD OK. CONUS WAS PARTICULARLY DRY AT 850MB FOR MARCH...WITH
ONLY ONE SITE IN WA /KOTX/ WITH A DEWPOINT EVEN ABOVE 0C. SURFACE
LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN AB...WITH SURFACE HIGH IN
IL/IN...AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS
TOMORROW...AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY.  POTENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN.  LOWER AND MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE REGION...BUT WAVE
DOES SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE
WEAK INSTABILITY /UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG MUCAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE
LI/...HAVE MENTIONED PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS RATHER THAN RAIN...BUT
DID KEEP OUT THUNDER MENTION AS INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK.  BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS...BUT DID ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR TOMORROW.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA
OF 20% AND HAVE KEPT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OUT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN EARNEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING DRY...DO THINK
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG IN AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH JUST YET...BUT WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT
LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ALLOWING WARMING FOR ONE MORE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA.  HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  WITH MOISTURE FINALLY
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  IT IS MARCH...AND MOVING A COLD FRONT
INTO AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS USUALLY A
TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO...THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FRONT IS
NOT TOO QUICK TO EXIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE A
HEALTHY SPRING RAIN OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER A DRY PART OF THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SOME KIND OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF A MID-
LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN KS/MO. GFS IS QUITE A
BIT COLDER THAN ECMWF/GEM AND WOULD POINT TOWARD FROZEN
PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED WITH
MODEL BLENDS CLOSER TO MILDER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A DRY AND COOL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 30KT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KOFK
NEAR 10Z AND KOMA/KLNK AREAS NEAR 12Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE
INTO THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...THE BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFTER 21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282336
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
636 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MILDER WEATHER IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE
EASTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
NOTED IN BC/WA/OR...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 140M ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  UPPER-LEVEL JET OF 100KT+ WRAPPED FROM THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH AROUND ITS BASE...WITH UP TO 180KT AHEAD OF IT IN
NEW ENGLAND.  850MB TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED FROM ND THROUGH SD/ND/KS
TOWARD OK. CONUS WAS PARTICULARLY DRY AT 850MB FOR MARCH...WITH
ONLY ONE SITE IN WA /KOTX/ WITH A DEWPOINT EVEN ABOVE 0C. SURFACE
LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN AB...WITH SURFACE HIGH IN
IL/IN...AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS
TOMORROW...AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY.  POTENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN.  LOWER AND MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE REGION...BUT WAVE
DOES SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE
WEAK INSTABILITY /UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG MUCAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE
LI/...HAVE MENTIONED PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS RATHER THAN RAIN...BUT
DID KEEP OUT THUNDER MENTION AS INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK.  BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS...BUT DID ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR TOMORROW.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA
OF 20% AND HAVE KEPT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OUT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN EARNEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING DRY...DO THINK
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG IN AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH JUST YET...BUT WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT
LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ALLOWING WARMING FOR ONE MORE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA.  HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  WITH MOISTURE FINALLY
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  IT IS MARCH...AND MOVING A COLD FRONT
INTO AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS USUALLY A
TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO...THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FRONT IS
NOT TOO QUICK TO EXIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE A
HEALTHY SPRING RAIN OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER A DRY PART OF THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SOME KIND OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF A MID-
LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN KS/MO. GFS IS QUITE A
BIT COLDER THAN ECMWF/GEM AND WOULD POINT TOWARD FROZEN
PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED WITH
MODEL BLENDS CLOSER TO MILDER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A DRY AND COOL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 30KT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KOFK
NEAR 10Z AND KOMA/KLNK AREAS NEAR 12Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE
INTO THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...THE BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFTER 21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282336
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
636 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MILDER WEATHER IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE
EASTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
NOTED IN BC/WA/OR...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 140M ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  UPPER-LEVEL JET OF 100KT+ WRAPPED FROM THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH AROUND ITS BASE...WITH UP TO 180KT AHEAD OF IT IN
NEW ENGLAND.  850MB TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED FROM ND THROUGH SD/ND/KS
TOWARD OK. CONUS WAS PARTICULARLY DRY AT 850MB FOR MARCH...WITH
ONLY ONE SITE IN WA /KOTX/ WITH A DEWPOINT EVEN ABOVE 0C. SURFACE
LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN AB...WITH SURFACE HIGH IN
IL/IN...AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS
TOMORROW...AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY.  POTENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN.  LOWER AND MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE REGION...BUT WAVE
DOES SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE
WEAK INSTABILITY /UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG MUCAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE
LI/...HAVE MENTIONED PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS RATHER THAN RAIN...BUT
DID KEEP OUT THUNDER MENTION AS INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK.  BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS...BUT DID ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR TOMORROW.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA
OF 20% AND HAVE KEPT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OUT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN EARNEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING DRY...DO THINK
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG IN AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH JUST YET...BUT WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT
LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ALLOWING WARMING FOR ONE MORE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA.  HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  WITH MOISTURE FINALLY
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  IT IS MARCH...AND MOVING A COLD FRONT
INTO AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS USUALLY A
TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO...THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FRONT IS
NOT TOO QUICK TO EXIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE A
HEALTHY SPRING RAIN OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER A DRY PART OF THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SOME KIND OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF A MID-
LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN KS/MO. GFS IS QUITE A
BIT COLDER THAN ECMWF/GEM AND WOULD POINT TOWARD FROZEN
PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED WITH
MODEL BLENDS CLOSER TO MILDER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A DRY AND COOL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 30KT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KOFK
NEAR 10Z AND KOMA/KLNK AREAS NEAR 12Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE
INTO THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...THE BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFTER 21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282336
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
636 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MILDER WEATHER IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE
EASTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
NOTED IN BC/WA/OR...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 140M ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  UPPER-LEVEL JET OF 100KT+ WRAPPED FROM THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH AROUND ITS BASE...WITH UP TO 180KT AHEAD OF IT IN
NEW ENGLAND.  850MB TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED FROM ND THROUGH SD/ND/KS
TOWARD OK. CONUS WAS PARTICULARLY DRY AT 850MB FOR MARCH...WITH
ONLY ONE SITE IN WA /KOTX/ WITH A DEWPOINT EVEN ABOVE 0C. SURFACE
LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN AB...WITH SURFACE HIGH IN
IL/IN...AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS
TOMORROW...AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY.  POTENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN.  LOWER AND MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE REGION...BUT WAVE
DOES SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE
WEAK INSTABILITY /UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG MUCAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE
LI/...HAVE MENTIONED PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS RATHER THAN RAIN...BUT
DID KEEP OUT THUNDER MENTION AS INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK.  BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS...BUT DID ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR TOMORROW.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA
OF 20% AND HAVE KEPT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OUT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN EARNEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING DRY...DO THINK
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG IN AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH JUST YET...BUT WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT
LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ALLOWING WARMING FOR ONE MORE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA.  HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  WITH MOISTURE FINALLY
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  IT IS MARCH...AND MOVING A COLD FRONT
INTO AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS USUALLY A
TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO...THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FRONT IS
NOT TOO QUICK TO EXIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE A
HEALTHY SPRING RAIN OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER A DRY PART OF THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SOME KIND OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF A MID-
LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN KS/MO. GFS IS QUITE A
BIT COLDER THAN ECMWF/GEM AND WOULD POINT TOWARD FROZEN
PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED WITH
MODEL BLENDS CLOSER TO MILDER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A DRY AND COOL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 30KT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KOFK
NEAR 10Z AND KOMA/KLNK AREAS NEAR 12Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE
INTO THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...THE BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFTER 21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282035
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
MILDER WEATHER IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE
EASTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
NOTED IN BC/WA/OR...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 140M ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.  UPPER-LEVEL JET OF 100KT+ WRAPPED FROM THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH AROUND ITS BASE...WITH UP TO 180KT AHEAD OF IT IN
NEW ENGLAND.  850MB TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED FROM ND THORUGH
SD/ND/KS TOWARD OK.  CONUS WAS PARTICULARLY DRY AT 850MB FOR
MARCH...WITH ONLY ONE SITE IN WA /KOTX/ WITH A DEWPOINT EVEN ABOVE
0C.  SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN AB...WITH SURFACE
HIGH IN IL/IN...AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS
TOMORROW...AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY.  POTENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN.  LOWER AND MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE REGION...BUT WAVE
DOES SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE
WEAK INSTABILITY /UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG MUCAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE
LI/...HAVE MENTIONED PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS RATHER THAN RAIN...BUT
DID KEEP OUT THUNDER MENTION AS INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK.  BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS...BUT DID ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR TOMORROW.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA
OF 20% AND HAVE KEPT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OUT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN EARNEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MID-LEVELS REMAINING DRY...DO THINK
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG IN AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH JUST YET...BUT WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT
LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ALLOWING WARMING FOR ONE MORE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA.  HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  WITH MOISTURE FINALLY
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  IT IS MARCH...AND MOVING A COLD FRONT
INTO AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS USUALLY A
TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO...THOUGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. FRONT IS
NOT TOO QUICK TO EXIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE A
HEALTHY SPRING RAIN OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER A DRY PART OF THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SOME KIND OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF A MID-
LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN KS/MO. GFS IS QUITE A
BIT COLDER THAN ECMWF/GEM AND WOULD POINT TOWARD FROZEN
PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED WITH
MODEL BLENDS CLOSER TO MILDER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A DRY AND COOL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A FEW MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE. DID THROW IN A PROB30 FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL
THREE SITES OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281724
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A FEW MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE. DID THROW IN A PROB30 FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL
THREE SITES OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281117
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281117
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281117
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281117
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.

TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ONE MORE SHOT AT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW TONIGHT...BEFORE MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS FROM MI TO KS AND EASTWARD...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WITH UP TO 130KT WINDS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT WITH A
125KT JET STREAK NOSING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO KS/CENTRAL OK.  850MB
COLD POCKET CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT SUB-0C
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY/DAKOTAS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTWARD.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL IA/NORTHWEST MO/CENTRAL
OK...WITH SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST ND.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF ND
THROUGH WESTERN MN...AND AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WAS
NOTED IN EASTERN ND/EASTERN SD DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  NARROW BAND OF LIFT WILL SKIRT
MAINLY THE MO RIVER AND EASTWARD...WITH LIFT OVERCOMING DRY LOW
LEVELS AROUND 00Z OR LATER AND SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH UNDER A TENTH OF
QPF AND JUST A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN WESTERN IOWA...TAPERING
QUICKLY TO LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE.  IN WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINNING...RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.  THE WAVE/FRONT SEEM FAST-MOVING...AND
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL EXIT QUICKLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  HAVE SPED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN COMMENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERCOMES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
MIXING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS...COULD SEE RH ON THE LOW
SIDE AND BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW...THE
COMBINATION WILL AT LEAST RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SURFACE FLOW LIKELY WEAKENS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE AMBLES NEAR THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.  850MB MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS FLOW TRAJECTORY TAKES MOISTURE UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH IT.  AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IS
BETTER TODAY REGARDING BOTH TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN...AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.  MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AREA GIVEN MOISTENING AND WARM
LOWER- TO MID-LEVELS...AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER MENTION.

FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE.  GFS REMAINS DRY AND BRINGS IN COOLER AIR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH DRAGGING COLD AIR DOWN AS IT
MOVES A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  KEPT A MODEL BLENDED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT HAVE
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL PATTERN EVOLUTION EXCEPT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ONE MORE SHOT AT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW TONIGHT...BEFORE MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS FROM MI TO KS AND EASTWARD...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WITH UP TO 130KT WINDS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT WITH A
125KT JET STREAK NOSING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO KS/CENTRAL OK.  850MB
COLD POCKET CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT SUB-0C
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY/DAKOTAS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTWARD.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL IA/NORTHWEST MO/CENTRAL
OK...WITH SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST ND.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF ND
THROUGH WESTERN MN...AND AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WAS
NOTED IN EASTERN ND/EASTERN SD DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  NARROW BAND OF LIFT WILL SKIRT
MAINLY THE MO RIVER AND EASTWARD...WITH LIFT OVERCOMING DRY LOW
LEVELS AROUND 00Z OR LATER AND SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH UNDER A TENTH OF
QPF AND JUST A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN WESTERN IOWA...TAPERING
QUICKLY TO LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE.  IN WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINNING...RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.  THE WAVE/FRONT SEEM FAST-MOVING...AND
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL EXIT QUICKLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  HAVE SPED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN COMMENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERCOMES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
MIXING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS...COULD SEE RH ON THE LOW
SIDE AND BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW...THE
COMBINATION WILL AT LEAST RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SURFACE FLOW LIKELY WEAKENS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE AMBLES NEAR THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.  850MB MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS FLOW TRAJECTORY TAKES MOISTURE UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH IT.  AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IS
BETTER TODAY REGARDING BOTH TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN...AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.  MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AREA GIVEN MOISTENING AND WARM
LOWER- TO MID-LEVELS...AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER MENTION.

FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE.  GFS REMAINS DRY AND BRINGS IN COOLER AIR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH DRAGGING COLD AIR DOWN AS IT
MOVES A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  KEPT A MODEL BLENDED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT HAVE
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL PATTERN EVOLUTION EXCEPT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ONE MORE SHOT AT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW TONIGHT...BEFORE MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS FROM MI TO KS AND EASTWARD...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WITH UP TO 130KT WINDS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT WITH A
125KT JET STREAK NOSING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO KS/CENTRAL OK.  850MB
COLD POCKET CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT SUB-0C
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY/DAKOTAS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTWARD.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL IA/NORTHWEST MO/CENTRAL
OK...WITH SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST ND.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF ND
THROUGH WESTERN MN...AND AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WAS
NOTED IN EASTERN ND/EASTERN SD DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  NARROW BAND OF LIFT WILL SKIRT
MAINLY THE MO RIVER AND EASTWARD...WITH LIFT OVERCOMING DRY LOW
LEVELS AROUND 00Z OR LATER AND SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH UNDER A TENTH OF
QPF AND JUST A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN WESTERN IOWA...TAPERING
QUICKLY TO LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE.  IN WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINNING...RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.  THE WAVE/FRONT SEEM FAST-MOVING...AND
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL EXIT QUICKLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  HAVE SPED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN COMMENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERCOMES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
MIXING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS...COULD SEE RH ON THE LOW
SIDE AND BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW...THE
COMBINATION WILL AT LEAST RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SURFACE FLOW LIKELY WEAKENS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE AMBLES NEAR THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.  850MB MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS FLOW TRAJECTORY TAKES MOISTURE UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH IT.  AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IS
BETTER TODAY REGARDING BOTH TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN...AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.  MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AREA GIVEN MOISTENING AND WARM
LOWER- TO MID-LEVELS...AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER MENTION.

FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE.  GFS REMAINS DRY AND BRINGS IN COOLER AIR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH DRAGGING COLD AIR DOWN AS IT
MOVES A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  KEPT A MODEL BLENDED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT HAVE
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL PATTERN EVOLUTION EXCEPT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ONE MORE SHOT AT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW TONIGHT...BEFORE MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS FROM MI TO KS AND EASTWARD...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WITH UP TO 130KT WINDS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT WITH A
125KT JET STREAK NOSING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO KS/CENTRAL OK.  850MB
COLD POCKET CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT SUB-0C
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY/DAKOTAS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTWARD.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL IA/NORTHWEST MO/CENTRAL
OK...WITH SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST ND.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF ND
THROUGH WESTERN MN...AND AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WAS
NOTED IN EASTERN ND/EASTERN SD DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  NARROW BAND OF LIFT WILL SKIRT
MAINLY THE MO RIVER AND EASTWARD...WITH LIFT OVERCOMING DRY LOW
LEVELS AROUND 00Z OR LATER AND SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH UNDER A TENTH OF
QPF AND JUST A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW IN WESTERN IOWA...TAPERING
QUICKLY TO LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE.  IN WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINNING...RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.  THE WAVE/FRONT SEEM FAST-MOVING...AND
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL EXIT QUICKLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  HAVE SPED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ON LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN COMMENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERCOMES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
MIXING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS...COULD SEE RH ON THE LOW
SIDE AND BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW...THE
COMBINATION WILL AT LEAST RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SURFACE FLOW LIKELY WEAKENS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE AMBLES NEAR THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.  850MB MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS FLOW TRAJECTORY TAKES MOISTURE UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH IT.  AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IS
BETTER TODAY REGARDING BOTH TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN...AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.  MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AREA GIVEN MOISTENING AND WARM
LOWER- TO MID-LEVELS...AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER MENTION.

FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE.  GFS REMAINS DRY AND BRINGS IN COOLER AIR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH DRAGGING COLD AIR DOWN AS IT
MOVES A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  KEPT A MODEL BLENDED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT HAVE
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL PATTERN EVOLUTION EXCEPT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN




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