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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191749
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

REGIONAL OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS
ERN NEB THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...FALSE COLOR SATL IMAGERY REVEALING
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OVER CNTRL NEB WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD. GIVEN
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT ALL SITE WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH FLGT CAT DROPPING
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KOFK AND KOMA...AND MVFR AT KLNK BTWN 10Z-
14Z SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEN TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191749
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

REGIONAL OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS
ERN NEB THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...FALSE COLOR SATL IMAGERY REVEALING
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OVER CNTRL NEB WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD. GIVEN
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT ALL SITE WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH FLGT CAT DROPPING
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KOFK AND KOMA...AND MVFR AT KLNK BTWN 10Z-
14Z SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEN TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 191125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR TODAY AS THICK CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSISTS. SOME RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR TODAY AS THICK CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSISTS. SOME RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 190946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 190946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 190946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 190946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 190520
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH MAY BE HARD TO GET RID OF AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ALMOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM/HRRR/RAP SEEM
OVERDONE ON GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT. WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LARGE.
WITHOUT ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT DUE TO THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
DEPTH...ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCRUB OUT...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES.
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN FEEL THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT AGAIN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS COULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAVE ADDED FOG AND WILL HOLD
OFF ANY DRIZZLE MENTION THAT FAR OUT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES IN THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT PROBABLY WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER... THEN THE NEXT TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD GIVE US A
SHOT OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING
SOUTH WITH THIS WITH MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
JUST GIVING US A GLANCING BLOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 190520
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH MAY BE HARD TO GET RID OF AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ALMOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM/HRRR/RAP SEEM
OVERDONE ON GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT. WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LARGE.
WITHOUT ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT DUE TO THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
DEPTH...ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCRUB OUT...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES.
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN FEEL THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT AGAIN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS COULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAVE ADDED FOG AND WILL HOLD
OFF ANY DRIZZLE MENTION THAT FAR OUT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES IN THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT PROBABLY WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER... THEN THE NEXT TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD GIVE US A
SHOT OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING
SOUTH WITH THIS WITH MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
JUST GIVING US A GLANCING BLOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 182315
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH MAY BE HARD TO GET RID OF AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ALMOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM/HRRR/RAP SEEM
OVERDONE ON GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT. WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LARGE.
WITHOUT ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT DUE TO THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
DEPTH...ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCRUB OUT...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES.
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN FEEL THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT AGAIN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS COULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAVE ADDED FOG AND WILL HOLD
OFF ANY DRIZZLE MENTION THAT FAR OUT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES IN THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT PROBABLY WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER... THEN THE NEXT TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD GIVE US A
SHOT OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING
SOUTH WITH THIS WITH MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
JUST GIVING US A GLANCING BLOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH NO RESTRICTION TO
VSBY. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...
WITH AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BUT INCREASE INTO THE 8-11 KNOT
RANGE FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 182315
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH MAY BE HARD TO GET RID OF AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ALMOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM/HRRR/RAP SEEM
OVERDONE ON GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT. WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LARGE.
WITHOUT ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT DUE TO THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
DEPTH...ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCRUB OUT...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES.
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN FEEL THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT AGAIN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS COULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAVE ADDED FOG AND WILL HOLD
OFF ANY DRIZZLE MENTION THAT FAR OUT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES IN THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT PROBABLY WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER... THEN THE NEXT TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD GIVE US A
SHOT OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING
SOUTH WITH THIS WITH MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
JUST GIVING US A GLANCING BLOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH NO RESTRICTION TO
VSBY. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...
WITH AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BUT INCREASE INTO THE 8-11 KNOT
RANGE FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 182124
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH MAY BE HARD TO GET RID OF AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ALMOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM/HRRR/RAP SEEM
OVERDONE ON GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT. WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LARGE. WITHOUT
ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT DUE TO THE SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...ANY
PRECIPWOULD BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON ITS DEVELOPMENT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCRUB OUT...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES.
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN FEEL THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT AGAIN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS COULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAVE ADDED FOG AND WILL HOLD
OFF ANY DRIZZLE MENTION THAT FAR OUT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES IN THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT PROBABLY WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER... THEN THE NEXT TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD GIVE US A
SHOT OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING
SOUTH WITH THIS WITH MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
JUST GIVING US A GLANCING BLOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

REGIONAL OBS THIS AFTN SHOWING MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH -SN ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO WRN IA. AND AT THIS POINT LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NIL IMPROVEMENT WITH LOW CIGS
PREVAILING THRU MAJORITY OF FCST FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT BTWN
10Z- 14Z FRI MORNING...KLNK FLGT CAT WILL DROP INTO LIFR
TERRITORY/KOMA IFR/KOFK MVFR...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO
COVER THIS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 182124
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH MAY BE HARD TO GET RID OF AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ALMOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM/HRRR/RAP SEEM
OVERDONE ON GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT. WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LARGE. WITHOUT
ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT DUE TO THE SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...ANY
PRECIPWOULD BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON ITS DEVELOPMENT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCRUB OUT...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES.
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN FEEL THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT AGAIN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS COULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAVE ADDED FOG AND WILL HOLD
OFF ANY DRIZZLE MENTION THAT FAR OUT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES IN THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT PROBABLY WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER... THEN THE NEXT TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD GIVE US A
SHOT OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING
SOUTH WITH THIS WITH MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
JUST GIVING US A GLANCING BLOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

REGIONAL OBS THIS AFTN SHOWING MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH -SN ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO WRN IA. AND AT THIS POINT LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NIL IMPROVEMENT WITH LOW CIGS
PREVAILING THRU MAJORITY OF FCST FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT BTWN
10Z- 14Z FRI MORNING...KLNK FLGT CAT WILL DROP INTO LIFR
TERRITORY/KOMA IFR/KOFK MVFR...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO
COVER THIS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 181751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MORNING FORECAST FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH SEEMS ON
TRACK...AND HAVE IT ENDING ALL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW MOSTLY REMAINING IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS OF 09Z...WITH LIGHT
SNOW NORTH OF THAT AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GET BRUSHED BY
THESE HEAVIER BANDS...BUT DURATION SEEMS SHORT ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. STILL APPEARS
THAT AROUND 1 INCH WILL ACCUMULATE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.

A LIGHTER BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY WEAK
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM
ALBION TO NORFOLK. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS WELL...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THERE.

THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST CONTINUE TO HANG
ONTO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT THE SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AND THEN BY THE TIME
IT DOES SATURATE DOWN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT...SO MAINLY
JUST A DUSTING IS EXPECTED IN THE OMAHA METRO AREA.

ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUNDINGS THAT
SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A SUPERCOOLED SATURATED LAYER...THE
VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE DRIZZLE SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME. FURTHERMORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED
YET. WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

AFTER TODAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERGO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH 40S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS PERIOD INVOLVES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...EACH ONE HAVING SOME OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT MOST OF THE RUNS SHOW A
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

ANALOGS OF THIS PATTERN...OR AT LEAST THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUGGEST STRONG 850 WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WINDY DAYS.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROF.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE
FORECAST BELOW FREEZING...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER AREAS SHOULD
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. POPS GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT AND ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

REGIONAL OBS THIS AFTN SHOWING MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH -SN ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO WRN IA. AND AT THIS POINT LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NIL IMPROVEMENT WITH LOW CIGS
PREVAILING THRU MAJORITY OF FCST FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT BTWN
10Z- 14Z FRI MORNING...KLNK FLGT CAT WILL DROP INTO LIFR
TERRITORY/KOMA IFR/KOFK MVFR...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO
COVER THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 181133
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
533 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MORNING FORECAST FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH SEEMS ON
TRACK...AND HAVE IT ENDING ALL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW MOSTLY REMAINING IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS OF 09Z...WITH LIGHT
SNOW NORTH OF THAT AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GET BRUSHED BY
THESE HEAVIER BANDS...BUT DURATION SEEMS SHORT ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. STILL APPEARS
THAT AROUND 1 INCH WILL ACCUMULATE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.

A LIGHTER BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY WEAK
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM
ALBION TO NORFOLK. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS WELL...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THERE.

THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST CONTINUE TO HANG
ONTO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT THE SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AND THEN BY THE TIME
IT DOES SATURATE DOWN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT...SO MAINLY
JUST A DUSTING IS EXPECTED IN THE OMAHA METRO AREA.

ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUNDINGS THAT
SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A SUPERCOOLED SATURATED LAYER...THE
VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE DRIZZLE SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME. FURTHERMORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED
YET. WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

AFTER TODAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERGO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH 40S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS PERIOD INVOLVES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...EACH ONE HAVING SOME OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT MOST OF THE RUNS SHOW A
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

ANALOGS OF THIS PATTERN...OR AT LEAST THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUGGEST STRONG 850 WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WINDY DAYS.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROF.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE
FORECAST BELOW FREEZING...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER AREAS SHOULD
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. POPS GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT AND ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN AVIATION ISSUES ARE LIGHT PRECIP AND THEN STRATUS. WEAK
SYSTEM IN KS/MO HAS SPREAD -SN TO KOFK/KLNK WITH MVFR VISBY...BUT
DRY AIR CONTS TO LIMIT PRECIP AT KOMA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES/-SN AT KOMA BETWEEN 12-15Z BUT IMPACTS TO
VISBY/CIGS WILL BE MINOR. -SN WILL END AT KOFK/KLNK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS WELL. MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL START
TO ADVANCE NEWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES BY
AFTN...THAT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT ALL 3
SITES TONIGHT WITH HIGH LOW-LVL MOISTURE FM CURRENT -SN AND
MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE S WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 181133
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
533 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MORNING FORECAST FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH SEEMS ON
TRACK...AND HAVE IT ENDING ALL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW MOSTLY REMAINING IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS OF 09Z...WITH LIGHT
SNOW NORTH OF THAT AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GET BRUSHED BY
THESE HEAVIER BANDS...BUT DURATION SEEMS SHORT ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. STILL APPEARS
THAT AROUND 1 INCH WILL ACCUMULATE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.

A LIGHTER BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY WEAK
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM
ALBION TO NORFOLK. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS WELL...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THERE.

THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST CONTINUE TO HANG
ONTO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT THE SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AND THEN BY THE TIME
IT DOES SATURATE DOWN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT...SO MAINLY
JUST A DUSTING IS EXPECTED IN THE OMAHA METRO AREA.

ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUNDINGS THAT
SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A SUPERCOOLED SATURATED LAYER...THE
VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE DRIZZLE SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME. FURTHERMORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED
YET. WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

AFTER TODAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERGO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH 40S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS PERIOD INVOLVES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...EACH ONE HAVING SOME OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT MOST OF THE RUNS SHOW A
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

ANALOGS OF THIS PATTERN...OR AT LEAST THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUGGEST STRONG 850 WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WINDY DAYS.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROF.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE
FORECAST BELOW FREEZING...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER AREAS SHOULD
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. POPS GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT AND ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN AVIATION ISSUES ARE LIGHT PRECIP AND THEN STRATUS. WEAK
SYSTEM IN KS/MO HAS SPREAD -SN TO KOFK/KLNK WITH MVFR VISBY...BUT
DRY AIR CONTS TO LIMIT PRECIP AT KOMA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES/-SN AT KOMA BETWEEN 12-15Z BUT IMPACTS TO
VISBY/CIGS WILL BE MINOR. -SN WILL END AT KOFK/KLNK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS WELL. MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL START
TO ADVANCE NEWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES BY
AFTN...THAT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT ALL 3
SITES TONIGHT WITH HIGH LOW-LVL MOISTURE FM CURRENT -SN AND
MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE S WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 181002
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
402 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MORNING FORECAST FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH SEEMS ON
TRACK...AND HAVE IT ENDING ALL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW MOSTLY REMAINING IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS OF 09Z...WITH LIGHT
SNOW NORTH OF THAT AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GET BRUSHED BY
THESE HEAVIER BANDS...BUT DURATION SEEMS SHORT ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. STILL APPEARS
THAT AROUND 1 INCH WILL ACCUMULATE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.

A LIGHTER BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY WEAK
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM
ALBION TO NORFOLK. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS WELL...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THERE.

THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST CONTINUE TO HANG
ONTO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT THE SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AND THEN BY THE TIME
IT DOES SATURATE DOWN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT...SO MAINLY
JUST A DUSTING IS EXPECTED IN THE OMAHA METRO AREA.

ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUNDINGS THAT
SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A SUPERCOOLED SATURATED LAYER...THE
VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE DRIZZLE SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME. FURTHERMORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED
YET. WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

AFTER TODAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERGO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH 40S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS PERIOD INVOLVES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...EACH ONE HAVING SOME OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT MOST OF THE RUNS SHOW A
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

ANALOGS OF THIS PATTERN...OR AT LEAST THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUGGEST STRONG 850 WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WINDY DAYS.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROF.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE
FORECAST BELOW FREEZING...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER AREAS SHOULD
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. POPS GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT AND ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN PCPN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR BUT CHANCES STILL SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER...AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY HOLD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 181002
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
402 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MORNING FORECAST FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH SEEMS ON
TRACK...AND HAVE IT ENDING ALL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW MOSTLY REMAINING IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS OF 09Z...WITH LIGHT
SNOW NORTH OF THAT AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GET BRUSHED BY
THESE HEAVIER BANDS...BUT DURATION SEEMS SHORT ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. STILL APPEARS
THAT AROUND 1 INCH WILL ACCUMULATE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.

A LIGHTER BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY WEAK
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM
ALBION TO NORFOLK. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS WELL...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THERE.

THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST CONTINUE TO HANG
ONTO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT THE SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AND THEN BY THE TIME
IT DOES SATURATE DOWN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT...SO MAINLY
JUST A DUSTING IS EXPECTED IN THE OMAHA METRO AREA.

ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUNDINGS THAT
SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A SUPERCOOLED SATURATED LAYER...THE
VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE DRIZZLE SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME. FURTHERMORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED
YET. WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

AFTER TODAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERGO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH 40S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS PERIOD INVOLVES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...EACH ONE HAVING SOME OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT MOST OF THE RUNS SHOW A
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

ANALOGS OF THIS PATTERN...OR AT LEAST THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUGGEST STRONG 850 WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WINDY DAYS.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROF.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE
FORECAST BELOW FREEZING...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER AREAS SHOULD
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. POPS GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT AND ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN PCPN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR BUT CHANCES STILL SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER...AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY HOLD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 180515
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EARLIER...INCREASED THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MADE ONLY VERY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD 50-70 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MB WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME FIRST...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD I80 BY 6AM
THURSDAY. HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ALREADY EXISTS...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT
WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80. AS WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL SATURATION
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...THUS
THE PRECIP COULD END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS BY NOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CLOUDY AS LOW
LEVEL 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND COULD EVEN CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BUT ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND
PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLIPPER MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN PCPN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR BUT CHANCES STILL SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER...AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY HOLD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 180515
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EARLIER...INCREASED THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MADE ONLY VERY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD 50-70 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MB WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME FIRST...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD I80 BY 6AM
THURSDAY. HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ALREADY EXISTS...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT
WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80. AS WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL SATURATION
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...THUS
THE PRECIP COULD END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS BY NOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CLOUDY AS LOW
LEVEL 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND COULD EVEN CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BUT ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND
PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLIPPER MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN PCPN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR BUT CHANCES STILL SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER...AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY HOLD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 172326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD 50-70 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MB WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME FIRST...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD I80 BY 6AM
THURSDAY. HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ALREADY EXISTS...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT
WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80. AS WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL SATURATION
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...THUS
THE PRECIP COULD END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS BY NOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CLOUDY AS LOW
LEVEL 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND COULD EVEN CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BUT ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND
PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLIPPER MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR CEILINGS AND AND LEAST TEMPO IFR VSBYS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN PCPN. BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IS AROUND KLNK WITH
CHANCES A BIT LOWER FOR KOMA AND LOWER STILL FOR KOFK. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR BUT FOR NOW CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER...AND WILL AMEND IF
NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 172326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD 50-70 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MB WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME FIRST...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD I80 BY 6AM
THURSDAY. HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ALREADY EXISTS...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT
WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80. AS WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL SATURATION
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...THUS
THE PRECIP COULD END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS BY NOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CLOUDY AS LOW
LEVEL 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND COULD EVEN CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BUT ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND
PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLIPPER MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR CEILINGS AND AND LEAST TEMPO IFR VSBYS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN PCPN. BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IS AROUND KLNK WITH
CHANCES A BIT LOWER FOR KOMA AND LOWER STILL FOR KOFK. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR BUT FOR NOW CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER...AND WILL AMEND IF
NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 172102
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD 50-70 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MB WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME FIRST...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD I80 BY 6AM
THURSDAY. HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ALREADY EXISTS...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT
WILLBE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80. AS WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL SATURATION
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...THUS
THE PRECIP COULD END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS BY NOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CLOUDY AS LOW
LEVEL 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND COULD EVEN CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BUT ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND
PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLIPPER MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18/10-12Z WHEN
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KOMA AND KLNK AFTER 10Z WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH
18/18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 172102
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD 50-70 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MB WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME FIRST...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD I80 BY 6AM
THURSDAY. HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ALREADY EXISTS...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT
WILLBE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80. AS WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL SATURATION
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...THUS
THE PRECIP COULD END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS BY NOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CLOUDY AS LOW
LEVEL 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND COULD EVEN CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BUT ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND
PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLIPPER MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18/10-12Z WHEN
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KOMA AND KLNK AFTER 10Z WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH
18/18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 171803
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGES...

SOME COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN SUBTLE FEATURES...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW... EXISTING DRY AIR... AND VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THAT...WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MOVING NORTH FROM THE KANSAS BORDER DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.

ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS HIGH IS KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOW...
RANGING FROM -2F IN YANKTON TO 18F IN BEATRICE.

ALOFT... WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE UPPER FLOW WAS COMPLEX
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERN US. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVING NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AIDED BY DPVA...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LAYER OF
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON GFS AND NAM AT 06Z TONIGHT...SUGGESTING A
FEW AREAS OF FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
MAX VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER... THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
SNOWFALL. AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTH...THOSE ARES WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT TO COME UP WITH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM BEATRICE TO FALLS CITY...AND CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH
ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF SUPER-COOLED FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS LIGHT SNOW AND MARGINAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS JUST BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IF CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD AN
INCREASE IN EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AN ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED MORE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY
LIGHT RAIN. AGAIN...THE UPPER FLOW CONTAINS NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES
MOVING WEST TO EAST...BUT LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION IS ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS. A WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED...WITH
40S PREDICTED FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18/10-12Z WHEN
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KOMA AND KLNK AFTER 10Z WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH
18/18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 171803
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGES...

SOME COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN SUBTLE FEATURES...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW... EXISTING DRY AIR... AND VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THAT...WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MOVING NORTH FROM THE KANSAS BORDER DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.

ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS HIGH IS KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOW...
RANGING FROM -2F IN YANKTON TO 18F IN BEATRICE.

ALOFT... WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE UPPER FLOW WAS COMPLEX
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERN US. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVING NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AIDED BY DPVA...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LAYER OF
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON GFS AND NAM AT 06Z TONIGHT...SUGGESTING A
FEW AREAS OF FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
MAX VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER... THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
SNOWFALL. AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTH...THOSE ARES WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT TO COME UP WITH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM BEATRICE TO FALLS CITY...AND CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH
ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF SUPER-COOLED FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS LIGHT SNOW AND MARGINAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS JUST BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IF CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD AN
INCREASE IN EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AN ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED MORE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY
LIGHT RAIN. AGAIN...THE UPPER FLOW CONTAINS NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES
MOVING WEST TO EAST...BUT LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION IS ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS. A WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED...WITH
40S PREDICTED FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18/10-12Z WHEN
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KOMA AND KLNK AFTER 10Z WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH
18/18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 171123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
523 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGES...

SOME COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN SUBTLE FEATURES...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW... EXISTING DRY AIR... AND VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THAT...WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MOVING NORTH FROM THE KANSAS BORDER DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.

ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS HIGH IS KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOW...
RANGING FROM -2F IN YANKTON TO 18F IN BEATRICE.

ALOFT... WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE UPPER FLOW WAS COMPLEX
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERN US. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVING NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AIDED BY DPVA...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LAYER OF
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON GFS AND NAM AT 06Z TONIGHT...SUGGESTING A
FEW AREAS OF FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
MAX VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER... THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
SNOWFALL. AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTH...THOSE ARES WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT TO COME UP WITH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM BEATRICE TO FALLS CITY...AND CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH
ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF SUPER-COOLED FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS LIGHT SNOW AND MARGINAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS JUST BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IF CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD AN
INCREASE IN EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AN ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED MORE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY
LIGHT RAIN. AGAIN...THE UPPER FLOW CONTAINS NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES
MOVING WEST TO EAST...BUT LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION IS ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS. A WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED...WITH
40S PREDICTED FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DECK OF MVFR CIGS IS JUST WEST OF KOFK/KLNK AND SOME OF THIS MAY
CONT TO MOV IN AND OUT OF THOSE LOCATIONS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL 3 SITES.
WINDS WILL CONT TO VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AS A
STORM SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD MVFR CIGS/VISBY TO KLNK WITH -SN
STARTING BY 8-10Z. WE WILL LEAVE KOMA/KOFK DRY FOR THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECIP LOWER THAN AT KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 171123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
523 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGES...

SOME COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN SUBTLE FEATURES...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW... EXISTING DRY AIR... AND VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THAT...WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MOVING NORTH FROM THE KANSAS BORDER DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.

ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS HIGH IS KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOW...
RANGING FROM -2F IN YANKTON TO 18F IN BEATRICE.

ALOFT... WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE UPPER FLOW WAS COMPLEX
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERN US. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVING NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AIDED BY DPVA...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LAYER OF
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON GFS AND NAM AT 06Z TONIGHT...SUGGESTING A
FEW AREAS OF FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
MAX VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER... THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
SNOWFALL. AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTH...THOSE ARES WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT TO COME UP WITH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM BEATRICE TO FALLS CITY...AND CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH
ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF SUPER-COOLED FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS LIGHT SNOW AND MARGINAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS JUST BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IF CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD AN
INCREASE IN EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AN ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED MORE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY
LIGHT RAIN. AGAIN...THE UPPER FLOW CONTAINS NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES
MOVING WEST TO EAST...BUT LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION IS ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS. A WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED...WITH
40S PREDICTED FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DECK OF MVFR CIGS IS JUST WEST OF KOFK/KLNK AND SOME OF THIS MAY
CONT TO MOV IN AND OUT OF THOSE LOCATIONS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL 3 SITES.
WINDS WILL CONT TO VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AS A
STORM SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD MVFR CIGS/VISBY TO KLNK WITH -SN
STARTING BY 8-10Z. WE WILL LEAVE KOMA/KOFK DRY FOR THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECIP LOWER THAN AT KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 170953
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGES...

SOME COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN SUBTLE FEATURES...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW... EXISTING DRY AIR... AND VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THAT...WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MOVING NORTH FROM THE KANSAS BORDER DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.

ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS HIGH IS KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOW...
RANGING FROM -2F IN YANKTON TO 18F IN BEATRICE.

ALOFT... WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE UPPER FLOW WAS COMPLEX
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERN US. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVING NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AIDED BY DPVA...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LAYER OF
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON GFS AND NAM AT 06Z TONIGHT...SUGGESTING A
FEW AREAS OF FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
MAX VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER... THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
SNOWFALL. AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTH...THOSE ARES WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT TO COME UP WITH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM BEATRICE TO FALLS CITY...AND CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH
ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF SUPER-COOLED FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS LIGHT SNOW AND MARGINAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS JUST BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IF CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD AN
INCREASE IN EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AN ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED MORE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY
LIGHT RAIN. AGAIN...THE UPPER FLOW CONTAINS NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES
MOVING WEST TO EAST...BUT LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION IS ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS. A WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED...WITH
40S PREDICTED FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 08Z AT KOMA. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15-16Z AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 170953
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGES...

SOME COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN SUBTLE FEATURES...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW... EXISTING DRY AIR... AND VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THAT...WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MOVING NORTH FROM THE KANSAS BORDER DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.

ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS HIGH IS KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOW...
RANGING FROM -2F IN YANKTON TO 18F IN BEATRICE.

ALOFT... WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE UPPER FLOW WAS COMPLEX
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERN US. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVING NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AIDED BY DPVA...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LAYER OF
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON GFS AND NAM AT 06Z TONIGHT...SUGGESTING A
FEW AREAS OF FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
MAX VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER... THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
SNOWFALL. AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTH...THOSE ARES WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT TO COME UP WITH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM BEATRICE TO FALLS CITY...AND CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH
ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF SUPER-COOLED FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS LIGHT SNOW AND MARGINAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS JUST BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IF CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD AN
INCREASE IN EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AN ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED MORE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY
LIGHT RAIN. AGAIN...THE UPPER FLOW CONTAINS NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES
MOVING WEST TO EAST...BUT LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION IS ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS. A WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED...WITH
40S PREDICTED FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 08Z AT KOMA. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15-16Z AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 170953
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGES...

SOME COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN SUBTLE FEATURES...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW... EXISTING DRY AIR... AND VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THAT...WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MOVING NORTH FROM THE KANSAS BORDER DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.

ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS HIGH IS KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOW...
RANGING FROM -2F IN YANKTON TO 18F IN BEATRICE.

ALOFT... WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE UPPER FLOW WAS COMPLEX
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERN US. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVING NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AIDED BY DPVA...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LAYER OF
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON GFS AND NAM AT 06Z TONIGHT...SUGGESTING A
FEW AREAS OF FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
MAX VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER... THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
SNOWFALL. AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTH...THOSE ARES WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT TO COME UP WITH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM BEATRICE TO FALLS CITY...AND CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH
ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF SUPER-COOLED FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS LIGHT SNOW AND MARGINAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS JUST BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IF CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD AN
INCREASE IN EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AN ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED MORE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY
LIGHT RAIN. AGAIN...THE UPPER FLOW CONTAINS NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES
MOVING WEST TO EAST...BUT LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION IS ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS. A WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED...WITH
40S PREDICTED FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 08Z AT KOMA. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15-16Z AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 170953
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGES...

SOME COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN SUBTLE FEATURES...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW... EXISTING DRY AIR... AND VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THAT...WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MOVING NORTH FROM THE KANSAS BORDER DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.

ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS HIGH IS KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOW...
RANGING FROM -2F IN YANKTON TO 18F IN BEATRICE.

ALOFT... WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE UPPER FLOW WAS COMPLEX
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERN US. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVING NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AIDED BY DPVA...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LAYER OF
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON GFS AND NAM AT 06Z TONIGHT...SUGGESTING A
FEW AREAS OF FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
MAX VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER... THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
SNOWFALL. AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM INTERSTATE 80
NORTH...THOSE ARES WILL TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT TO COME UP WITH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM BEATRICE TO FALLS CITY...AND CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH
ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF SUPER-COOLED FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS LIGHT SNOW AND MARGINAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS JUST BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IF CONDITIONS TREND TOWARD AN
INCREASE IN EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AN ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED MORE CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY
LIGHT RAIN. AGAIN...THE UPPER FLOW CONTAINS NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES
MOVING WEST TO EAST...BUT LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION IS ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS. A WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED...WITH
40S PREDICTED FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 08Z AT KOMA. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15-16Z AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 170505
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1105 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

DOUBLE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A NEW TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BE OUR
WEATHER MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME CLEARING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
TO THE WEST STILL HOLDING STRONG. STILL BELIEVE WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERED- BROKEN DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EDGE CAN DEVELOP GIVEN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR. ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO
SATURATE IN WESTERN IOWA THUS CUTTING POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THERE.
LOOKING UP TO ONE HALF INCH ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES...AND
HALF INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH SO NO MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS...OTHER THAN IT WILL
BE LIKELY BE SNOWING IN THE OMAHA/LINCOLN METRO AREAS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.

DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE GFS. GENERALLY
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS HERE GIVEN NO STRONG UPSTREAM
KICKER...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. BY THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS UP WITH JUST A MENTION OF RAIN...WHICH
MAY END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 08Z AT KOMA. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15-16Z AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 162357
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
557 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

DOUBLE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A NEW TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BE OUR
WEATHER MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME CLEARING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
TO THE WEST STILL HOLDING STRONG. STILL BELIEVE WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERED- BROKEN DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EDGE CAN DEVELOP GIVEN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR. ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO
SATURATE IN WESTERN IOWA THUS CUTTING POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THERE.
LOOKING UP TO ONE HALF INCH ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES...AND
HALF INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH SO NO MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS...OTHER THAN IT WILL
BE LIKELY BE SNOWING IN THE OMAHA/LINCOLN METRO AREAS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.

DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE GFS. GENERALLY
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS HERE GIVEN NO STRONG UPSTREAM
KICKER...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. BY THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS UP WITH JUST A MENTION OF RAIN...WHICH
MAY END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK AND KLNK ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 17/04Z AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS MAY RETURN BY 17/12Z AT KOFK.MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS OF 100OVC TO 150OVC WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 162357
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
557 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

DOUBLE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A NEW TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BE OUR
WEATHER MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME CLEARING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
TO THE WEST STILL HOLDING STRONG. STILL BELIEVE WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERED- BROKEN DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EDGE CAN DEVELOP GIVEN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR. ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO
SATURATE IN WESTERN IOWA THUS CUTTING POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THERE.
LOOKING UP TO ONE HALF INCH ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES...AND
HALF INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH SO NO MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS...OTHER THAN IT WILL
BE LIKELY BE SNOWING IN THE OMAHA/LINCOLN METRO AREAS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.

DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE GFS. GENERALLY
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS HERE GIVEN NO STRONG UPSTREAM
KICKER...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. BY THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS UP WITH JUST A MENTION OF RAIN...WHICH
MAY END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK AND KLNK ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 17/04Z AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS MAY RETURN BY 17/12Z AT KOFK.MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS OF 100OVC TO 150OVC WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 162104
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

DOUBLE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A NEW TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BE OUR
WEATHER MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME CLEARING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
TO THE WEST STILL HOLDING STRONG. STILL BELIEVE WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERED- BROKEN DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EDGE CAN DEVELOP GIVEN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR. ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO
SATURATE IN WESTERN IOWA THUS CUTTING POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THERE.
LOOKING UP TO ONE HALF INCH ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES...AND
HALF INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH SO NO MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS...OTHER THAN IT WILL
BE LIKELY BE SNOWING IN THE OMAHA/LINCOLN METRO AREAS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.

DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE GFS. GENERALLY
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS HERE GIVEN NO STRONG UPSTREAM
KICKER...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. BY THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS UP WITH JUST A MENTION OF RAIN...WHICH
MAY END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VFR BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING NORTHERLY SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MORNING. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 162104
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

DOUBLE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A NEW TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BE OUR
WEATHER MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME CLEARING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
TO THE WEST STILL HOLDING STRONG. STILL BELIEVE WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERED- BROKEN DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EDGE CAN DEVELOP GIVEN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR. ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO
SATURATE IN WESTERN IOWA THUS CUTTING POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THERE.
LOOKING UP TO ONE HALF INCH ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES...AND
HALF INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH SO NO MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS...OTHER THAN IT WILL
BE LIKELY BE SNOWING IN THE OMAHA/LINCOLN METRO AREAS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.

DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE GFS. GENERALLY
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS HERE GIVEN NO STRONG UPSTREAM
KICKER...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. BY THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS UP WITH JUST A MENTION OF RAIN...WHICH
MAY END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VFR BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING NORTHERLY SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MORNING. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN





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