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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME WAS CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT POTENT PAC NW VORT MAX WILL COME ASHORE LATER
TONIGHT THEN PUSH INTO S-CNTRL CANADA LATE FRIDAY. QUITE IMPRESSIVE
500MB HGT FALLS PRECEDING THE SYSTEM NOTED.

PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY REVOLVING AROUND A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSSING THE REGION.

INCREASING DPVA ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THERMAL BNDRY PROGGED
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO WRN KS. SFC BNDRY
BEGINS SHIFTING EWD THEN AS A WARM FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN
FRIDAY AFTN. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
TSTM INITIATION WED NIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE NEAR SW SD WHERE
LLVL THETA-E CONVG/2" PRECIP WATER WILL BE FOCUS. EXPECT COMPLEX
WILL MOVE ALONG THE SD/NEB AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NRN CWA
THUR MORNING. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN THEN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN HIGH ENVIRONMENT
MOISTURE CONTENT...APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY HIGH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION MAINLY FROM NE NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS SUGGESTING NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED
PDS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ADVERTISED TO BECOME STAGNANT WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES. WITH NW FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
OVERALL TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NW
NEBRASKA AT 05Z WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z
AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFTER
00Z AS WARM ADVECTION SPREADS EAST FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME WAS CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT POTENT PAC NW VORT MAX WILL COME ASHORE LATER
TONIGHT THEN PUSH INTO S-CNTRL CANADA LATE FRIDAY. QUITE IMPRESSIVE
500MB HGT FALLS PRECEDING THE SYSTEM NOTED.

PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY REVOLVING AROUND A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSSING THE REGION.

INCREASING DPVA ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THERMAL BNDRY PROGGED
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO WRN KS. SFC BNDRY
BEGINS SHIFTING EWD THEN AS A WARM FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN
FRIDAY AFTN. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
TSTM INITIATION WED NIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE NEAR SW SD WHERE
LLVL THETA-E CONVG/2" PRECIP WATER WILL BE FOCUS. EXPECT COMPLEX
WILL MOVE ALONG THE SD/NEB AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NRN CWA
THUR MORNING. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN THEN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN HIGH ENVIRONMENT
MOISTURE CONTENT...APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY HIGH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION MAINLY FROM NE NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS SUGGESTING NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED
PDS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ADVERTISED TO BECOME STAGNANT WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES. WITH NW FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
OVERALL TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NW
NEBRASKA AT 05Z WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z
AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFTER
00Z AS WARM ADVECTION SPREADS EAST FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222352
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME WAS CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT POTENT PAC NW VORT MAX WILL COME ASHORE LATER
TONIGHT THEN PUSH INTO S-CNTRL CANADA LATE FRIDAY. QUITE IMPRESSIVE
500MB HGT FALLS PRECEDING THE SYSTEM NOTED.

PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY REVOLVING AROUND A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSSING THE REGION.

INCREASING DPVA ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THERMAL BNDRY PROGGED
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO WRN KS. SFC BNDRY
BEGINS SHIFTING EWD THEN AS A WARM FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN
FRIDAY AFTN. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
TSTM INITIATION WED NIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE NEAR SW SD WHERE
LLVL THETA-E CONVG/2" PRECIP WATER WILL BE FOCUS. EXPECT COMPLEX
WILL MOVE ALONG THE SD/NEB AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NRN CWA
THUR MORNING. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN THEN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN HIGH ENVIRONMENT
MOISTURE CONTENT...APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY HIGH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION MAINLY FROM NE NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS SUGGESTING NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED
PDS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ADVERTISED TO BECOME STAGNANT WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES. WITH NW FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
OVERALL TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH 12Z THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ068-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 222352
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME WAS CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT POTENT PAC NW VORT MAX WILL COME ASHORE LATER
TONIGHT THEN PUSH INTO S-CNTRL CANADA LATE FRIDAY. QUITE IMPRESSIVE
500MB HGT FALLS PRECEDING THE SYSTEM NOTED.

PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY REVOLVING AROUND A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSSING THE REGION.

INCREASING DPVA ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THERMAL BNDRY PROGGED
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO WRN KS. SFC BNDRY
BEGINS SHIFTING EWD THEN AS A WARM FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN
FRIDAY AFTN. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
TSTM INITIATION WED NIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE NEAR SW SD WHERE
LLVL THETA-E CONVG/2" PRECIP WATER WILL BE FOCUS. EXPECT COMPLEX
WILL MOVE ALONG THE SD/NEB AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NRN CWA
THUR MORNING. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN THEN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN HIGH ENVIRONMENT
MOISTURE CONTENT...APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY HIGH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION MAINLY FROM NE NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS SUGGESTING NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED
PDS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ADVERTISED TO BECOME STAGNANT WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES. WITH NW FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
OVERALL TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH 12Z THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ068-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222023
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME WAS CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT POTENT PAC NW VORT MAX WILL COME ASHORE LATER
TONIGHT THEN PUSH INTO S-CNTRL CANADA LATE FRIDAY. QUITE IMPRESSIVE
500MB HGT FALLS PRECEDING THE SYSTEM NOTED.

PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY REVOLVING AROUND A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSSING THE REGION.

INCREASING DPVA ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THERMAL BNDRY PROGGED
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO WRN KS. SFC BNDRY
BEGINS SHIFTING EWD THEN AS A WARM FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
CWA THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN
FRIDAY AFTN. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
TSTM INITIATION WED NIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE NEAR SW SD WHERE
LLVL THETA-E CONVG/2" PRECIP WATER WILL BE FOCUS. EXPECT COMPLEX
WILL MOVE ALONG THE SD/NEB AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NRN CWA
THUR MORNING. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN THEN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN HIGH ENVIRONMENT
MOISTURE CONTENT...APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY HIGH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION MAINLY FROM NE NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS SUGGESTING NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED
PDS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ADVERTISED TO BECOME STAGNANT WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES. WITH NW FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
OVERALL TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC CDFNT HAS
MOVED THROUGH KOFK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KOMA/KLNK VERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF NORTH
WINDS AOA 12 KT AT ALL 3 SITES BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING THROUGH 18Z ON WED. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221710
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDCOVER THIS MORNING...HEAT/HEAT
HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE
BEST. AN ELEVATED CELL DID POP UP OVER SAUNDERS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...AND DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING WITH IS AS IT MOVED ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES. THIS WAS ELEVATED AND IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND OUR AREA IS ON THE TAIL END OF
THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO IOWA. OUR
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE INHIBITION
ALONG WITH 1.65 INCHES PWAT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS
TREND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE COVERAGE IS UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. DID INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED TSRA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THINK SOME OF THE
ISOLATED STORM WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POOLED MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE
STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN IF IT WILL BE IN OUR CWA OF FARTHER SOUTH. DID INCLUDE POPS
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPC HAS ADDED SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO THE DAY1
OUTLOOK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE IF WE CAN GET STORMS TO FORM IN THE AREA DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

LINGERING CLOUDS COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. DID TRIM HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND A FEW NORTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE HEAT ADVISORY...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA
GOING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY AS READINGS CAN STILL TOP THE 94 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR MORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN WE HAVE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WITH 50KT FLOW RETURNING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE STORMS THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE DEEPENS THE TROF OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC CDFNT HAS
MOVED THROUGH KOFK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KOMA/KLNK VERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF NORTH
WINDS AOA 12 KT AT ALL 3 SITES BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING THROUGH 18Z ON WED. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ044-045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221106
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDCOVER THIS MORNING...HEAT/HEAT
HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE
BEST. AN ELEVATED CELL DID POP UP OVER SAUNDERS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...AND DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING WITH IS AS IT MOVED ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES. THIS WAS ELEVATED AND IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND OUR AREA IS ON THE TAIL END OF
THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO IOWA. OUR
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE INHIBITION
ALONG WITH 1.65 INCHES PWAT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS
TREND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE COVERAGE IS UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. DID INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED TSRA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THINK SOME OF THE
ISOLATED STORM WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POOLED MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE
STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN IF IT WILL BE IN OUR CWA OF FARTHER SOUTH. DID INCLUDE POPS
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPC HAS ADDED SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO THE DAY1
OUTLOOK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE IF WE CAN GET STORMS TO FORM IN THE AREA DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

LINGERING CLOUDS COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. DID TRIM HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND A FEW NORTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE HEAT ADVISORY...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA
GOING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY AS READINGS CAN STILL TOP THE 94 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR MORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN WE HAVE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WITH 50KT FLOW RETURNING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE STORMS THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE DEEPENS THE TROF OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT
DRIFTING SOUTH WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES BY 15Z WITH NORTH WINDS
NEAR 10KT FOLLOWING. MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD POP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST ALONG FRONT WHICH WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ044-045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 221106
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDCOVER THIS MORNING...HEAT/HEAT
HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE
BEST. AN ELEVATED CELL DID POP UP OVER SAUNDERS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...AND DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING WITH IS AS IT MOVED ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES. THIS WAS ELEVATED AND IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND OUR AREA IS ON THE TAIL END OF
THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO IOWA. OUR
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE INHIBITION
ALONG WITH 1.65 INCHES PWAT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS
TREND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE COVERAGE IS UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. DID INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED TSRA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THINK SOME OF THE
ISOLATED STORM WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POOLED MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE
STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN IF IT WILL BE IN OUR CWA OF FARTHER SOUTH. DID INCLUDE POPS
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPC HAS ADDED SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO THE DAY1
OUTLOOK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE IF WE CAN GET STORMS TO FORM IN THE AREA DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

LINGERING CLOUDS COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. DID TRIM HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND A FEW NORTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE HEAT ADVISORY...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA
GOING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY AS READINGS CAN STILL TOP THE 94 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR MORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN WE HAVE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WITH 50KT FLOW RETURNING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE STORMS THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE DEEPENS THE TROF OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT
DRIFTING SOUTH WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES BY 15Z WITH NORTH WINDS
NEAR 10KT FOLLOWING. MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD POP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST ALONG FRONT WHICH WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ044-045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 220849
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDCOVER THIS MORNING...HEAT/HEAT
HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE
BEST. AN ELEVATED CELL DID POP UP OVER SAUNDERS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...AND DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING WITH IS AS IT MOVED ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES. THIS WAS ELEVATED AND IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND OUR AREA IS ON THE TAIL END OF
THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO IOWA. OUR
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE INHIBITION
ALONG WITH 1.65 INCHES PWAT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS
TREND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE COVERAGE IS UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. DID INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED TSRA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THINK SOME OF THE
ISOLATED STORM WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POOLED MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE
STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN IF IT WILL BE IN OUR CWA OF FARTHER SOUTH. DID INCLUDE POPS
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPC HAS ADDED SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO THE DAY1
OUTLOOK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE IF WE CAN GET STORMS TO FORM IN THE AREA DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

LINGERING CLOUDS COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. DID TRIM HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND A FEW NORTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE HEAT ADVISORY...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA
GOING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY AS READINGS CAN STILL TOP THE 94 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR MORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN WE HAVE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WITH 50KT FLOW RETURNING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE STORMS THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE DEEPENS THE TROF OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. FLOW REMAINS WEAK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ044-045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 220849
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDCOVER THIS MORNING...HEAT/HEAT
HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE
BEST. AN ELEVATED CELL DID POP UP OVER SAUNDERS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...AND DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING WITH IS AS IT MOVED ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES. THIS WAS ELEVATED AND IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND OUR AREA IS ON THE TAIL END OF
THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO IOWA. OUR
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE INHIBITION
ALONG WITH 1.65 INCHES PWAT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS
TREND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE COVERAGE IS UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. DID INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED TSRA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THINK SOME OF THE
ISOLATED STORM WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POOLED MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE
STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN IF IT WILL BE IN OUR CWA OF FARTHER SOUTH. DID INCLUDE POPS
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPC HAS ADDED SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO THE DAY1
OUTLOOK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE IF WE CAN GET STORMS TO FORM IN THE AREA DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

LINGERING CLOUDS COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. DID TRIM HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND A FEW NORTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE HEAT ADVISORY...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA
GOING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY AS READINGS CAN STILL TOP THE 94 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR MORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN WE HAVE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WITH 50KT FLOW RETURNING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE STORMS THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE DEEPENS THE TROF OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. FLOW REMAINS WEAK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ044-045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 220420
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ALTHOUGH SMALL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT NEWD ACROSS MID MO VALLEY WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM OAX/LBF/ABR/TOP INDICATING A WELL MIXED ELEVATED LAYER HAD
SPREAD OVER FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONG CAP THIS
EVENING AND INHIBIT PROBABLY EVERYTHING TONIGHT BUT SOME VERY
ELEVATED REMNANT ACTIVITY THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ROLLS OFF
THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NEBR/KS THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE LAST MINUTE PRECIP INCLUSION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO WRN ZONES COULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP A
LITTLE MORE THAN PREV FCST IF IT WOULD SPREAD A BIT FARTHER E...BUT
FOR NOW MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH SOME MID/UPPER
70S POSSIBLE SERN ZONES. STRONGER WAVE LIFTING ACROSS DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO NERN NEBR IA LATE
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY THRU THE FA ON TUESDAY. COOLING INITIALLY NOT
VERY GOOD DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT AND THUS READINGS COULD PROBABLY
STILL REACH MID 90S AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 DESPITE THE
SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEFORE 18Z THERE. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS OK AS DEW POINTS COULD LOWER A BIT IN NRLY FLOW
DESPITE AIRMASS WARMING. NO CHANGES THERE. LEFT IN SMALL POPS FROM
LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EITHER DUE TO
COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING LATE IN THE
AFTN OR A DEW POINT FRONT TRAILING COOL FRONT OVERCOMING STRONG
CAP. HOWEVER...DID TRIM POPS SOMEWHAT AS DOUBTS PERSIST.

DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE FA WITH LITTLE CHANGES MADE. THETA E
ADVECTION COMMENCES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MOIST LAYER IN
H85-H7 BEGINS SHIFTING TOWARD FA. COVERAGE QUESTIONABLE AS UPPER
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN
SHIFTING OVER AREA AT THAT SAME TIME. ALTHOUGH COULD FORESEE POPS
NEEDING TO BE SPREAD FARTHER SE THURSDAY...AT THIS TIME KEPT THEM
IN NERN NEBR CLOSER TO MID LEVEL CAP/S EDGE. IF CONVECTION AND/OR
DEBRIS SPREADS FARTHER SE COULD SEE THE NEED IN TRIMMING MAX TEMPS
A BIT...BUT FOR NOW NO CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

LEFT IN POPS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR MO RIVER FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL FRONT
FRI NIGHT. WOULD THINK UNLESS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARE WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 90 WEST OF THE RIVER AND
ADJUSTED UP A LITTLE FROM BLEND. FIRST COOL FRONT SHOULD KNOCK
SEVERAL DEGREES OFF HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT PROVIDING EVEN MORE COOLING BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. FLOW REMAINS WEAK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 220420
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ALTHOUGH SMALL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT NEWD ACROSS MID MO VALLEY WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM OAX/LBF/ABR/TOP INDICATING A WELL MIXED ELEVATED LAYER HAD
SPREAD OVER FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONG CAP THIS
EVENING AND INHIBIT PROBABLY EVERYTHING TONIGHT BUT SOME VERY
ELEVATED REMNANT ACTIVITY THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ROLLS OFF
THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NEBR/KS THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE LAST MINUTE PRECIP INCLUSION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO WRN ZONES COULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP A
LITTLE MORE THAN PREV FCST IF IT WOULD SPREAD A BIT FARTHER E...BUT
FOR NOW MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH SOME MID/UPPER
70S POSSIBLE SERN ZONES. STRONGER WAVE LIFTING ACROSS DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO NERN NEBR IA LATE
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY THRU THE FA ON TUESDAY. COOLING INITIALLY NOT
VERY GOOD DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT AND THUS READINGS COULD PROBABLY
STILL REACH MID 90S AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 DESPITE THE
SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEFORE 18Z THERE. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS OK AS DEW POINTS COULD LOWER A BIT IN NRLY FLOW
DESPITE AIRMASS WARMING. NO CHANGES THERE. LEFT IN SMALL POPS FROM
LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EITHER DUE TO
COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING LATE IN THE
AFTN OR A DEW POINT FRONT TRAILING COOL FRONT OVERCOMING STRONG
CAP. HOWEVER...DID TRIM POPS SOMEWHAT AS DOUBTS PERSIST.

DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE FA WITH LITTLE CHANGES MADE. THETA E
ADVECTION COMMENCES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MOIST LAYER IN
H85-H7 BEGINS SHIFTING TOWARD FA. COVERAGE QUESTIONABLE AS UPPER
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN
SHIFTING OVER AREA AT THAT SAME TIME. ALTHOUGH COULD FORESEE POPS
NEEDING TO BE SPREAD FARTHER SE THURSDAY...AT THIS TIME KEPT THEM
IN NERN NEBR CLOSER TO MID LEVEL CAP/S EDGE. IF CONVECTION AND/OR
DEBRIS SPREADS FARTHER SE COULD SEE THE NEED IN TRIMMING MAX TEMPS
A BIT...BUT FOR NOW NO CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

LEFT IN POPS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR MO RIVER FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL FRONT
FRI NIGHT. WOULD THINK UNLESS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARE WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 90 WEST OF THE RIVER AND
ADJUSTED UP A LITTLE FROM BLEND. FIRST COOL FRONT SHOULD KNOCK
SEVERAL DEGREES OFF HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT PROVIDING EVEN MORE COOLING BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. FLOW REMAINS WEAK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 212004
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ALTHOUGH SMALL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT NEWD ACROSS MID MO VALLEY WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM OAX/LBF/ABR/TOP INDICATING A WELL MIXED ELEVATED LAYER HAD
SPREAD OVER FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONG CAP THIS
EVENING AND INHIBIT PROBABLY EVERYTHING TONIGHT BUT SOME VERY
ELEVATED REMNANT ACTIVITY THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ROLLS OFF
THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NEBR/KS THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE LAST MINUTE PRECIP INCLUSION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO WRN ZONES COULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP A
LITTLE MORE THAN PREV FCST IF IT WOULD SPREAD A BIT FARTHER E...BUT
FOR NOW MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH SOME MID/UPPER
70S POSSIBLE SERN ZONES. STRONGER WAVE LIFTING ACROSS DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO NERN NEBR IA LATE
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY THRU THE FA ON TUESDAY. COOLING INITIALLY NOT
VERY GOOD DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT AND THUS READINGS COULD PROBABLY
STILL REACH MID 90S AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 DESPITE THE
SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEFORE 18Z THERE. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS OK AS DEW POINTS COULD LOWER A BIT IN NRLY FLOW
DESPITE AIRMASS WARMING. NO CHANGES THERE. LEFT IN SMALL POPS FROM
LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EITHER DUE TO
COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING LATE IN THE
AFTN OR A DEW POINT FRONT TRAILING COOL FRONT OVERCOMING STRONG
CAP. HOWEVER...DID TRIM POPS SOMEWHAT AS DOUBTS PERSIST.

DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE FA WITH LITTLE CHANGES MADE. THETA E
ADVECTION COMMENCES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MOIST LAYER IN
H85-H7 BEGINS SHIFTING TOWARD FA. COVERAGE QUESTIONABLE AS UPPER
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN
SHIFTING OVER AREA AT THAT SAME TIME. ALTHOUGH COULD FORESEE POPS
NEEDING TO BE SPREAD FARTHER SE THURSDAY...AT THIS TIME KEPT THEM
IN NERN NEBR CLOSER TO MID LEVEL CAP/S EDGE. IF CONVECTION AND/OR
DEBRIS SPREADS FARTHER SE COULD SEE THE NEED IN TRIMMING MAX TEMPS
A BIT...BUT FOR NOW NO CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

LEFT IN POPS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR MO RIVER FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL FRONT
FRI NIGHT. WOULD THINK UNLESS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARE WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 90 WEST OF THE RIVER AND
ADJUSTED UP A LITTLE FROM BLEND. FIRST COOL FRONT SHOULD KNOCK
SEVERAL DEGREES OFF HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT PROVIDING EVEN MORE COOLING BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>033-042.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 211725
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S NOTED
JUST NORTH OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT EXTENDED FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF
ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF
PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET
SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
+14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND
THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND
THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR
AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95
TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S BEHIND IT.  THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOOK FOR
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS
MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>033-042.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 211725
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S NOTED
JUST NORTH OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT EXTENDED FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF
ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF
PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET
SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
+14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND
THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND
THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR
AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95
TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S BEHIND IT.  THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOOK FOR
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS
MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>033-042.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 211100
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF
ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF
PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET
SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
+14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND
THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND
THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR
AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95
TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S BEHIND IT.  THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOOK FOR
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS
MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXTENSIVELY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH OBS AND SATELLITE INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS THAT COULD AFFECT KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM
IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND A CU FIELD IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WTO 14 TO 23
KNOTS BY 17/18Z...BUT THEN DIMINISH 12 KNOTS OR LESS BY 22/00-01Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 210901
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
401 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF
ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF
PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET
SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
+14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND
THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND
THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR
AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95
TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S BEHIND IT.  THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOOK FOR
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS
MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SOME INDICATION FROM EVENING MODELS THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD INDEED
FORM AGAIN BY MORNING AS HAD BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREAD COULD REMAIN GREATER
THAT PAST FEW MORNINGS AS READINGS/WINDS WERE A LITTLE
HIGHER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF CIGS NEAR FL010 FOR A
FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY
QUICK EROSION IN THE LOWER CLOUDS...IF THEY DO INDEED FORM...AS
TEMPERATURES/WINDS INCREASE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 210901
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
401 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF
ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF
PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET
SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
+14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND
THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND
THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR
AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95
TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S BEHIND IT.  THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOOK FOR
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS
MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SOME INDICATION FROM EVENING MODELS THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD INDEED
FORM AGAIN BY MORNING AS HAD BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREAD COULD REMAIN GREATER
THAT PAST FEW MORNINGS AS READINGS/WINDS WERE A LITTLE
HIGHER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF CIGS NEAR FL010 FOR A
FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY
QUICK EROSION IN THE LOWER CLOUDS...IF THEY DO INDEED FORM...AS
TEMPERATURES/WINDS INCREASE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 210412
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1112 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS HEAT THEN POSSIBLE TSTMS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A HIGH PRESSURE DOME CENTERED
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE ITS TIME TO PAY OUR DUES FOR THE PLEASANT WEATHER ENJOYED
AS OF LATE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COMBINATION OF LLVL
JET RAMPING UP ALONG WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL RESULT IN STOUT LLVL
MOISTURE ADV TO COME INTO PLAY LATER TONIGHT. BY MON AFTN...WITH SFC
DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND THE MID 70S...COMBINATION OF HEAT/RH WILL
RESULT IN RATHER OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS MON AFTN OVER THE CWA. A
CHECK OF HEAT INDEX T-SECT PROGS OVER VARIOUS PLACES SUGGEST HEAT
ADV CRITERIA OF 105 SHOULD BE EASILY MET OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. SAME SCENARIO ON TAP TUES AFTN AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING AROUND 105.

HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUES EVENING AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING. MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND 2" OR MORE ALONG AXIS
OF STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/RELATIVELY DEEP QG FORCING WHICH
IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE SRN CWA. APPEARS THAT THIS SFC BNDRY
WILL SLOW UP THRU TUES NIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING SE...THUS A SMALL
CHANCE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO LATE WED MORNING. COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN THEN WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. IN ADDITION..TSTM CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND A
COUPLE FROPAS OVER THE CWA.

MODELS ADVERTISE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WITH ASSOC WARM FRONT INDUCING TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. SFC BNDRY PROGGED
TO EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE ON SAT AS SFC LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN WRT SFC BNDRY
POSITIONING...SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS THURSDAY THRU
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS WILL OVERALL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MID/UPPER 80S ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SOME INDICATION FROM EVENING MODELS THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD INDEED
FORM AGAIN BY MORNING AS HAD BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREAD COULD REMAIN GREATER
THAT PAST FEW MORNINGS AS READINGS/WINDS WERE A LITTLE
HIGHER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF CIGS NEAR FL010 FOR A
FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY
QUICK EROSION IN THE LOWER CLOUDS...IF THEY DO INDEED FORM...AS
TEMPERATURES/WINDS INCREASE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 202304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
604 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS HEAT THEN POSSIBLE TSTMS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A HIGH PRESSURE DOME CENTERED
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE ITS TIME TO PAY OUR DUES FOR THE PLEASANT WEATHER ENJOYED
AS OF LATE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COMBINATION OF LLVL
JET RAMPING UP ALONG WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL RESULT IN STOUT LLVL
MOISTURE ADV TO COME INTO PLAY LATER TONIGHT. BY MON AFTN...WITH SFC
DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND THE MID 70S...COMBINATION OF HEAT/RH WILL
RESULT IN RATHER OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS MON AFTN OVER THE CWA. A
CHECK OF HEAT INDEX T-SECT PROGS OVER VARIOUS PLACES SUGGEST HEAT
ADV CRITERIA OF 105 SHOULD BE EASILY MET OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. SAME SCENARIO ON TAP TUES AFTN AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING AROUND 105.

HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUES EVENING AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING. MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND 2" OR MORE ALONG AXIS
OF STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/RELATIVELY DEEP QG FORCING WHICH
IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE SRN CWA. APPEARS THAT THIS SFC BNDRY
WILL SLOW UP THRU TUES NIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING SE...THUS A SMALL
CHANCE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO LATE WED MORNING. COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN THEN WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. IN ADDITION..TSTM CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND A
COUPLE FROPAS OVER THE CWA.

MODELS ADVERTISE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WITH ASSOC WARM FRONT INDUCING TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. SFC BNDRY PROGGED
TO EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE ON SAT AS SFC LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN WRT SFC BNDRY
POSITIONING...SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS THURSDAY THRU
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS WILL OVERALL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MID/UPPER 80S ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...STRATUS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD AGAIN FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AS PER LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT WARMER TODAY
WHICH COULD KEEP LOWS TONIGHT A BIT WARMER THUS KEEPING SFC-DWPT
SPREADS A BIT LARGER. THIS IN TURN COULD LIMIT STRATUS COVERAGE.
THUS DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF JUST A SCT MENTION
TO LOW CLOUDS AROUND AND A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 202304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
604 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS HEAT THEN POSSIBLE TSTMS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A HIGH PRESSURE DOME CENTERED
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE ITS TIME TO PAY OUR DUES FOR THE PLEASANT WEATHER ENJOYED
AS OF LATE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COMBINATION OF LLVL
JET RAMPING UP ALONG WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL RESULT IN STOUT LLVL
MOISTURE ADV TO COME INTO PLAY LATER TONIGHT. BY MON AFTN...WITH SFC
DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND THE MID 70S...COMBINATION OF HEAT/RH WILL
RESULT IN RATHER OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS MON AFTN OVER THE CWA. A
CHECK OF HEAT INDEX T-SECT PROGS OVER VARIOUS PLACES SUGGEST HEAT
ADV CRITERIA OF 105 SHOULD BE EASILY MET OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. SAME SCENARIO ON TAP TUES AFTN AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING AROUND 105.

HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUES EVENING AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING. MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND 2" OR MORE ALONG AXIS
OF STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/RELATIVELY DEEP QG FORCING WHICH
IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE SRN CWA. APPEARS THAT THIS SFC BNDRY
WILL SLOW UP THRU TUES NIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING SE...THUS A SMALL
CHANCE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO LATE WED MORNING. COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN THEN WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. IN ADDITION..TSTM CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND A
COUPLE FROPAS OVER THE CWA.

MODELS ADVERTISE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WITH ASSOC WARM FRONT INDUCING TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. SFC BNDRY PROGGED
TO EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE ON SAT AS SFC LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN WRT SFC BNDRY
POSITIONING...SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS THURSDAY THRU
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS WILL OVERALL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MID/UPPER 80S ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...STRATUS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD AGAIN FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AS PER LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT WARMER TODAY
WHICH COULD KEEP LOWS TONIGHT A BIT WARMER THUS KEEPING SFC-DWPT
SPREADS A BIT LARGER. THIS IN TURN COULD LIMIT STRATUS COVERAGE.
THUS DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF JUST A SCT MENTION
TO LOW CLOUDS AROUND AND A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 202005
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS HEAT THEN POSSIBLE TSTMS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A HIGH PRESSURE DOME CENTERED
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE ITS TIME TO PAY OUR DUES FOR THE PLEASANT WEATHER ENJOYED
AS OF LATE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COMBINATION OF LLVL
JET RAMPING UP ALONG WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL RESULT IN STOUT LLVL
MOISTURE ADV TO COME INTO PLAY LATER TONIGHT. BY MON AFTN...WITH SFC
DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND THE MID 70S...COMBINATION OF HEAT/RH WILL
RESULT IN RATHER OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS MON AFTN OVER THE CWA. A
CHECK OF HEAT INDEX T-SECT PROGS OVER VARIOUS PLACES SUGGEST HEAT
ADV CRITERIA OF 105 SHOULD BE EASILY MET OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. SAME SCENARIO ON TAP TUES AFTN AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING AROUND 105.

HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUES EVENING AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING. MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND 2" OR MORE ALONG AXIS
OF STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/RELATIVELY DEEP QG FORCING WHICH
IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE SRN CWA. APPEARS THAT THIS SFC BNDRY
WILL SLOW UP THRU TUES NIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING SE...THUS A SMALL
CHANCE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO LATE WED MORNING. COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN THEN WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014


APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. IN ADDITION..TSTM CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND A
COUPLE FROPAS OVER THE CWA.

MODELS ADVERTISE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WITH ASSOC WARM FRONT INDUCING TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. SFC BNDRY PROGGED
TO EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE ON SAT AS SFC LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN WRT SFC BNDRY
POSITIONING...SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS THURSDAY THRU
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS WILL OVERALL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MID/UPPER 80S ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MVFR CEILING AT KOFK SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES WITH SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME
VSBYS 4-6 MILES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG OR HAZE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 202005
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS HEAT THEN POSSIBLE TSTMS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A HIGH PRESSURE DOME CENTERED
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE ITS TIME TO PAY OUR DUES FOR THE PLEASANT WEATHER ENJOYED
AS OF LATE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COMBINATION OF LLVL
JET RAMPING UP ALONG WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL RESULT IN STOUT LLVL
MOISTURE ADV TO COME INTO PLAY LATER TONIGHT. BY MON AFTN...WITH SFC
DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND THE MID 70S...COMBINATION OF HEAT/RH WILL
RESULT IN RATHER OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS MON AFTN OVER THE CWA. A
CHECK OF HEAT INDEX T-SECT PROGS OVER VARIOUS PLACES SUGGEST HEAT
ADV CRITERIA OF 105 SHOULD BE EASILY MET OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. SAME SCENARIO ON TAP TUES AFTN AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING AROUND 105.

HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUES EVENING AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING. MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND 2" OR MORE ALONG AXIS
OF STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/RELATIVELY DEEP QG FORCING WHICH
IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE SRN CWA. APPEARS THAT THIS SFC BNDRY
WILL SLOW UP THRU TUES NIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING SE...THUS A SMALL
CHANCE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO LATE WED MORNING. COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN THEN WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014


APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. IN ADDITION..TSTM CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND A
COUPLE FROPAS OVER THE CWA.

MODELS ADVERTISE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WITH ASSOC WARM FRONT INDUCING TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. SFC BNDRY PROGGED
TO EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE ON SAT AS SFC LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN WRT SFC BNDRY
POSITIONING...SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS THURSDAY THRU
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS WILL OVERALL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MID/UPPER 80S ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MVFR CEILING AT KOFK SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES WITH SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME
VSBYS 4-6 MILES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG OR HAZE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 201751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND MIX OUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINOR
CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PACKAGE. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE BUILDING
HEAT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH OPPRESSIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE MID
80S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO REACH THE LOWER 70S TODAY
MOST AREAS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100.

TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY WHEN
DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 70S AS CORN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION REALLY
KICKS IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 109 IN
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY. VERY MUGGY AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
105 TO 109 IN THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BUILDING HEAT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...OPTED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE THEY ARE NOT
MATERIALIZING...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN THE NOSE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. A HEALTHY CAP WILL ALSO EXIST
OVERNIGHT...THUS UNSURE IF THERE`S ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE LLJ
ALONE TO TRIGGER ANYTHING...AND WILL DEFER TO THE LATER COMPUTER
MODELS TO SEE IF THEY MAINTAIN THEIR WET TRENDS.

BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH A VERY SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED STORMS...THAT COULD ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

COLD FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY EVENING COULD
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AIR AND COOLER TEMPS THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF RIDGE
RIDER SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SATURDAY APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MVFR CEILING AT KOFK SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES WITH SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME
VSBYS 4-6 MILES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG OR HAZE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 201751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND MIX OUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINOR
CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PACKAGE. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE BUILDING
HEAT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH OPPRESSIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE MID
80S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO REACH THE LOWER 70S TODAY
MOST AREAS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100.

TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY WHEN
DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 70S AS CORN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION REALLY
KICKS IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 109 IN
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY. VERY MUGGY AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
105 TO 109 IN THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BUILDING HEAT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...OPTED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE THEY ARE NOT
MATERIALIZING...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN THE NOSE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. A HEALTHY CAP WILL ALSO EXIST
OVERNIGHT...THUS UNSURE IF THERE`S ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE LLJ
ALONE TO TRIGGER ANYTHING...AND WILL DEFER TO THE LATER COMPUTER
MODELS TO SEE IF THEY MAINTAIN THEIR WET TRENDS.

BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH A VERY SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED STORMS...THAT COULD ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

COLD FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY EVENING COULD
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AIR AND COOLER TEMPS THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF RIDGE
RIDER SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SATURDAY APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MVFR CEILING AT KOFK SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES WITH SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME
VSBYS 4-6 MILES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG OR HAZE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 201129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINOR
CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PACKAGE. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE BUILDING
HEAT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH OPPRESSIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE MID
80S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO REACH THE LOWER 70S TODAY
MOST AREAS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100.

TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY WHEN
DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 70S AS CORN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION REALLY
KICKS IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 109 IN
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY. VERY MUGGY AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
105 TO 109 IN THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BUILDING HEAT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...OPTED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE THEY ARE NOT
MATERIALIZING...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN THE NOSE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. A HEALTHY CAP WILL ALSO EXIST
OVERNIGHT...THUS UNSURE IF THERE`S ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE LLJ
ALONE TO TRIGGER ANYTHING...AND WILL DEFER TO THE LATER COMPUTER
MODELS TO SEE IF THEY MAINTAIN THEIR WET TRENDS.

BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH A VERY SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED STORMS...THAT COULD ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

COLD FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY EVENING COULD
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AIR AND COOLER TEMPS THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF RIDGE
RIDER SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SATURDAY APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ONCE AGAIN STRATUS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
HAS EXPANDED...BUT WAS STILL A COUNTY OR SO FROM NORFOLK AT 11Z.
IN ADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AXIS OF THETA-E ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD AND DID
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TO FL040-060. THE PROPAGATION VECTORS TAKE
THE STORMS IN KANSAS AND THEM THERE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL
INCREASE TO 12-18KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 22-26KTS. TONIGHT
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LEFT MENTION OUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 201129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINOR
CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PACKAGE. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE BUILDING
HEAT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH OPPRESSIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE MID
80S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO REACH THE LOWER 70S TODAY
MOST AREAS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100.

TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY WHEN
DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 70S AS CORN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION REALLY
KICKS IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 109 IN
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY. VERY MUGGY AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
105 TO 109 IN THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BUILDING HEAT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...OPTED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE THEY ARE NOT
MATERIALIZING...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN THE NOSE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. A HEALTHY CAP WILL ALSO EXIST
OVERNIGHT...THUS UNSURE IF THERE`S ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE LLJ
ALONE TO TRIGGER ANYTHING...AND WILL DEFER TO THE LATER COMPUTER
MODELS TO SEE IF THEY MAINTAIN THEIR WET TRENDS.

BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH A VERY SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED STORMS...THAT COULD ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

COLD FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY EVENING COULD
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AIR AND COOLER TEMPS THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF RIDGE
RIDER SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SATURDAY APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ONCE AGAIN STRATUS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
HAS EXPANDED...BUT WAS STILL A COUNTY OR SO FROM NORFOLK AT 11Z.
IN ADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AXIS OF THETA-E ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD AND DID
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TO FL040-060. THE PROPAGATION VECTORS TAKE
THE STORMS IN KANSAS AND THEM THERE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL
INCREASE TO 12-18KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 22-26KTS. TONIGHT
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LEFT MENTION OUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 200800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINOR
CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PACKAGE. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE BUILDING
HEAT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH OPPRESSIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE MID
80S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO REACH THE LOWER 70S TODAY
MOST AREAS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100.

TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY WHEN
DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 70S AS CORN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION REALLY
KICKS IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 109 IN
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY. VERY MUGGY AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
105 TO 109 IN THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BUILDING HEAT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...OPTED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE THEY ARE NOT
MATERIALIZING...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN THE NOSE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. A HEALTHY CAP WILL ALSO EXIST
OVERNIGHT...THUS UNSURE IF THERE`S ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE LLJ
ALONE TO TRIGGER ANYTHING...AND WILL DEFER TO THE LATER COMPUTER
MODELS TO SEE IF THEY MAINTAIN THEIR WET TRENDS.

BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH A VERY SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED STORMS...THAT COULD ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

COLD FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY EVENING COULD
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AIR AND COOLER TEMPS THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF RIDGE
RIDER SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SATURDAY APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAF FORECASTS AND IN FACT POPS WERE REDUCED FURTHER IN GRIDS
AS WELL. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR KOFK...BUT CONDITIONS APPEARED A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE THAN YDA AT THIS TIME. SO JUST CONTINUED WITH A
TEMPO 6SM BR SCT010 GROUP AT KOFK FOR NOW. OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT
LESS IN THE WAY IN VFR OR HIGH MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES SUNDAY AS
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 200800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINOR
CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PACKAGE. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE BUILDING
HEAT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH OPPRESSIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE MID
80S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO REACH THE LOWER 70S TODAY
MOST AREAS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100.

TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY WHEN
DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 70S AS CORN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION REALLY
KICKS IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 109 IN
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY. VERY MUGGY AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
105 TO 109 IN THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BUILDING HEAT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...OPTED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE THEY ARE NOT
MATERIALIZING...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN THE NOSE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. A HEALTHY CAP WILL ALSO EXIST
OVERNIGHT...THUS UNSURE IF THERE`S ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE LLJ
ALONE TO TRIGGER ANYTHING...AND WILL DEFER TO THE LATER COMPUTER
MODELS TO SEE IF THEY MAINTAIN THEIR WET TRENDS.

BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH A VERY SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED STORMS...THAT COULD ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

COLD FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY EVENING COULD
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AIR AND COOLER TEMPS THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF RIDGE
RIDER SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SATURDAY APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAF FORECASTS AND IN FACT POPS WERE REDUCED FURTHER IN GRIDS
AS WELL. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR KOFK...BUT CONDITIONS APPEARED A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE THAN YDA AT THIS TIME. SO JUST CONTINUED WITH A
TEMPO 6SM BR SCT010 GROUP AT KOFK FOR NOW. OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT
LESS IN THE WAY IN VFR OR HIGH MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES SUNDAY AS
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK





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