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000
FXUS63 KOAX 311722
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE
FORECAST OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHC OF
PRECIP.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WEAK RETURNS
OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED AN AREA OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT EXTNDD FM NW NEB INTO SRN SD. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONT TO
WANT TO TRY AND MOVE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SWD IN NE NEB THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LACKING THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS HIGHWAY 92 THRU THE MRNG BUT AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WEAKENS...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOV S OF THE WEAKER
STATIC STABILITY IT SHOULD DIMINISH. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES INDC A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE BORDER INTO ND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS
WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO IA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF A LOW OVER CNTRL NEB AND FRNT EXTNG EWD.
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO BE LIMITED AND THE STABILITY IS RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME ISO/SCT SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN NEB AND TRYING TO
TRACK SEWD THRU THE ENVG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THRU
THE EVNG THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO SE NEB/SW IA TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
BUT FELT PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUN MRNG OVER CNTRL NEB THAT COULD CLIP A PART OF OUR NE NEB
AREA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE WE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE CWA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS SOME LARGER-SCALE CHANGES START TO TAKE SHAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TEND TO FILL SOME THIS WEEK AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL US WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE /BOTH FROM THE GULF AND MONSOONAL/ TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A DECENT SHOT OF SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THOUGH THE TIMING OF ANY FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
WE WILL CONT WITH THE MID CHC POPS FOR THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD
FOR A START. OTHERWISE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 311722
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE
FORECAST OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHC OF
PRECIP.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WEAK RETURNS
OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED AN AREA OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT EXTNDD FM NW NEB INTO SRN SD. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONT TO
WANT TO TRY AND MOVE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SWD IN NE NEB THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LACKING THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS HIGHWAY 92 THRU THE MRNG BUT AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WEAKENS...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOV S OF THE WEAKER
STATIC STABILITY IT SHOULD DIMINISH. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES INDC A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE BORDER INTO ND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS
WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO IA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF A LOW OVER CNTRL NEB AND FRNT EXTNG EWD.
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO BE LIMITED AND THE STABILITY IS RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME ISO/SCT SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN NEB AND TRYING TO
TRACK SEWD THRU THE ENVG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THRU
THE EVNG THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO SE NEB/SW IA TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
BUT FELT PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUN MRNG OVER CNTRL NEB THAT COULD CLIP A PART OF OUR NE NEB
AREA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE WE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE CWA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS SOME LARGER-SCALE CHANGES START TO TAKE SHAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TEND TO FILL SOME THIS WEEK AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL US WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE /BOTH FROM THE GULF AND MONSOONAL/ TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A DECENT SHOT OF SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THOUGH THE TIMING OF ANY FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
WE WILL CONT WITH THE MID CHC POPS FOR THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD
FOR A START. OTHERWISE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE
FORECAST OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHC OF
PRECIP.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WEAK RETURNS
OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED AN AREA OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT EXTNDD FM NW NEB INTO SRN SD. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONT TO
WANT TO TRY AND MOVE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SWD IN NE NEB THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LACKING THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS HIGHWAY 92 THRU THE MRNG BUT AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WEAKENS...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOV S OF THE WEAKER
STATIC STABILITY IT SHOULD DIMINISH. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES INDC A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE BORDER INTO ND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS
WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO IA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF A LOW OVER CNTRL NEB AND FRNT EXTNG EWD.
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO BE LIMITED AND THE STABILITY IS RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME ISO/SCT SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN NEB AND TRYING TO
TRACK SEWD THRU THE ENVG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THRU
THE EVNG THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO SE NEB/SW IA TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
BUT FELT PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUN MRNG OVER CNTRL NEB THAT COULD CLIP A PART OF OUR NE NEB
AREA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE WE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE CWA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS SOME LARGER-SCALE CHANGES START TO TAKE SHAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TEND TO FILL SOME THIS WEEK AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL US WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE /BOTH FROM THE GULF AND MONSOONAL/ TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A DECENT SHOT OF SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THOUGH THE TIMING OF ANY FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
WE WILL CONT WITH THE MID CHC POPS FOR THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD
FOR A START. OTHERWISE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE
FORECAST OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHC OF
PRECIP.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WEAK RETURNS
OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED AN AREA OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT EXTNDD FM NW NEB INTO SRN SD. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONT TO
WANT TO TRY AND MOVE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SWD IN NE NEB THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LACKING THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS HIGHWAY 92 THRU THE MRNG BUT AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WEAKENS...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOV S OF THE WEAKER
STATIC STABILITY IT SHOULD DIMINISH. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES INDC A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE BORDER INTO ND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS
WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO IA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF A LOW OVER CNTRL NEB AND FRNT EXTNG EWD.
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO BE LIMITED AND THE STABILITY IS RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME ISO/SCT SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN NEB AND TRYING TO
TRACK SEWD THRU THE ENVG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THRU
THE EVNG THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO SE NEB/SW IA TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
BUT FELT PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUN MRNG OVER CNTRL NEB THAT COULD CLIP A PART OF OUR NE NEB
AREA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE WE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE CWA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS SOME LARGER-SCALE CHANGES START TO TAKE SHAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TEND TO FILL SOME THIS WEEK AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL US WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE /BOTH FROM THE GULF AND MONSOONAL/ TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A DECENT SHOT OF SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THOUGH THE TIMING OF ANY FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
WE WILL CONT WITH THE MID CHC POPS FOR THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD
FOR A START. OTHERWISE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310803
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE
FORECAST OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHC OF
PRECIP.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WEAK RETURNS
OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED AN AREA OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT EXTNDD FM NW NEB INTO SRN SD. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONT TO
WANT TO TRY AND MOVE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SWD IN NE NEB THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LACKING THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS HIGHWAY 92 THRU THE MRNG BUT AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WEAKENS...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOV S OF THE WEAKER
STATIC STABILITY IT SHOULD DIMINISH. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES INDC A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE BORDER INTO ND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS
WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO IA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF A LOW OVER CNTRL NEB AND FRNT EXTNG EWD.
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO BE LIMITED AND THE STABILITY IS RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME ISO/SCT SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN NEB AND TRYING TO
TRACK SEWD THRU THE ENVG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THRU
THE EVNG THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO SE NEB/SW IA TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
BUT FELT PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUN MRNG OVER CNTRL NEB THAT COULD CLIP A PART OF OUR NE NEB
AREA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE WE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE CWA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS SOME LARGER-SCALE CHANGES START TO TAKE SHAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TEND TO FILL SOME THIS WEEK AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL US WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE /BOTH FROM THE GULF AND MONSOONAL/ TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A DECENT SHOT OF SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THOUGH THE TIMING OF ANY FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
WE WILL CONT WITH THE MID CHC POPS FOR THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD
FOR A START. OTHERWISE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...
SO INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KOFK FROM 15-18Z FOR -SHRA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KG/MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310803
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE
FORECAST OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHC OF
PRECIP.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WEAK RETURNS
OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED AN AREA OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT EXTNDD FM NW NEB INTO SRN SD. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONT TO
WANT TO TRY AND MOVE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SWD IN NE NEB THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LACKING THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS HIGHWAY 92 THRU THE MRNG BUT AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WEAKENS...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOV S OF THE WEAKER
STATIC STABILITY IT SHOULD DIMINISH. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES INDC A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE BORDER INTO ND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS
WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO IA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF A LOW OVER CNTRL NEB AND FRNT EXTNG EWD.
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO BE LIMITED AND THE STABILITY IS RELATIVELY
HIGH...BUT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME ISO/SCT SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN NEB AND TRYING TO
TRACK SEWD THRU THE ENVG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THRU
THE EVNG THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO SE NEB/SW IA TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
BUT FELT PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUN MRNG OVER CNTRL NEB THAT COULD CLIP A PART OF OUR NE NEB
AREA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE WE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE CWA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS SOME LARGER-SCALE CHANGES START TO TAKE SHAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TEND TO FILL SOME THIS WEEK AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL US WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE /BOTH FROM THE GULF AND MONSOONAL/ TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A DECENT SHOT OF SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THOUGH THE TIMING OF ANY FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
WE WILL CONT WITH THE MID CHC POPS FOR THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD
FOR A START. OTHERWISE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...
SO INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KOFK FROM 15-18Z FOR -SHRA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...KG/MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 310443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES
WITH SUNSET. THERE IS A VERY WEAK/SUBTLE WAVE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO CROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND THIS FEATURE BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING OUT OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREA ON EARLY FRIDAY. ALL
MODEL SUITES SEEM TO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE TO 30/40 AS IT GETS CLOSER. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NE/SD BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS
GENERALLY DRY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT
OF CANADA FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. HAVE 30/40 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...
SO INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KOFK FROM 15-18Z FOR -SHRA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER/KG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES
WITH SUNSET. THERE IS A VERY WEAK/SUBTLE WAVE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO CROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND THIS FEATURE BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING OUT OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREA ON EARLY FRIDAY. ALL
MODEL SUITES SEEM TO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE TO 30/40 AS IT GETS CLOSER. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NE/SD BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS
GENERALLY DRY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT
OF CANADA FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. HAVE 30/40 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...
SO INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KOFK FROM 15-18Z FOR -SHRA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER/KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES
WITH SUNSET. THERE IS A VERY WEAK/SUBTLE WAVE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO CROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND THIS FEATURE BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING OUT OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREA ON EARLY FRIDAY. ALL
MODEL SUITES SEEM TO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE TO 30/40 AS IT GETS CLOSER. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NE/SD BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS
GENERALLY DRY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT
OF CANADA FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. HAVE 30/40 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A MINOR WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH THE
MODELS BRING INTO THE KOFK AREA AROUND 17Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT SO ADDED VCSH TO
THE KOFK TAF AND WILL NOT GO ANY STRONGER FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES
WITH SUNSET. THERE IS A VERY WEAK/SUBTLE WAVE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO CROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND THIS FEATURE BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING OUT OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREA ON EARLY FRIDAY. ALL
MODEL SUITES SEEM TO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE TO 30/40 AS IT GETS CLOSER. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NE/SD BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS
GENERALLY DRY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT
OF CANADA FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. HAVE 30/40 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A MINOR WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH THE
MODELS BRING INTO THE KOFK AREA AROUND 17Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT SO ADDED VCSH TO
THE KOFK TAF AND WILL NOT GO ANY STRONGER FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MEYER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 302012
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES
WITH SUNSET. THERE IS A VERY WEAK/SUBTLE WAVE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO CROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND THIS FEATURE BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING OUT OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREA ON EARLY FRIDAY. ALL
MODEL SUITES SEEM TO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE TO 30/40 AS IT GETS CLOSER. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NE/SD BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS
GENERALLY DRY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT
OF CANADA FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. HAVE 30/40 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 302012
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES
WITH SUNSET. THERE IS A VERY WEAK/SUBTLE WAVE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO CROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND THIS FEATURE BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING OUT OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREA ON EARLY FRIDAY. ALL
MODEL SUITES SEEM TO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE TO 30/40 AS IT GETS CLOSER. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NE/SD BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS
GENERALLY DRY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT
OF CANADA FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. HAVE 30/40 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301726
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NIL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 48 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEST AND ANOMALOUS DEEP TROF EAST PREVAILING. AT THIS POINT SEE
LITTLE REASON FROM DEVIATING FROM GOING RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY FCST
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. NO DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WHERE
THE BULK OF PCPN ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND DURING THIS TIME...CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS/SW KS/ERN OK WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAY 6 AND 7 THOUGH...THE ECM PROGS A
POTENT VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THRU. CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME PCPN
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT...THUS WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS
TUES/TUES NIGHT AND WED PDS. OTHERWISE...NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORM
TEMPS STILL APPEAR ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301726
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NIL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 48 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEST AND ANOMALOUS DEEP TROF EAST PREVAILING. AT THIS POINT SEE
LITTLE REASON FROM DEVIATING FROM GOING RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY FCST
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. NO DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WHERE
THE BULK OF PCPN ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND DURING THIS TIME...CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS/SW KS/ERN OK WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAY 6 AND 7 THOUGH...THE ECM PROGS A
POTENT VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THRU. CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME PCPN
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT...THUS WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS
TUES/TUES NIGHT AND WED PDS. OTHERWISE...NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORM
TEMPS STILL APPEAR ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301145
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
645 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NIL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 48 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEST AND ANOMALOUS DEEP TROF EAST PREVAILING. AT THIS POINT SEE
LITTLE REASON FROM DEVIATING FROM GOING RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY FCST
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. NO DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WHERE
THE BULK OF PCPN ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND DURING THIS TIME...CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS/SW KS/ERN OK WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAY 6 AND 7 THOUGH...THE ECM PROGS A
POTENT VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THRU. CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME PCPN
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT...THUS WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS
TUES/TUES NIGHT AND WED PDS. OTHERWISE...NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORM
TEMPS STILL APPEAR ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TODAY
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014


NIL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 48 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEST AND ANOMALOUS DEEP TROF EAST PREVAILING. AT THIS POINT SEE
LITTLE REASON FROM DEVIATING FROM GOING RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY FCST
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. NO DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WHERE
THE BULK OF PCPN ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND DURING THIS TIME...CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS/SW KS/ERN OK WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAY 6 AND 7 THOUGH...THE ECM PROGS A
POTENT VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THRU. CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME PCPN
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT...THUS WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS
TUES/TUES NIGHT AND WED PDS. OTHERWISE...NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORM
TEMPS STILL APPEAR ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

STILL EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER WAS STILL
DROPPING SEWD WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW...IT DOES
NOT SEEM THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014


NIL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 48 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEST AND ANOMALOUS DEEP TROF EAST PREVAILING. AT THIS POINT SEE
LITTLE REASON FROM DEVIATING FROM GOING RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY FCST
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. NO DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WHERE
THE BULK OF PCPN ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND DURING THIS TIME...CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS/SW KS/ERN OK WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAY 6 AND 7 THOUGH...THE ECM PROGS A
POTENT VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THRU. CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME PCPN
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT...THUS WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS
TUES/TUES NIGHT AND WED PDS. OTHERWISE...NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORM
TEMPS STILL APPEAR ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

STILL EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER WAS STILL
DROPPING SEWD WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW...IT DOES
NOT SEEM THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300425
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT 19Z
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE
CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE IN THE
WEST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRUSH WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH DECENT 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES IN THE
AREA AND POCKETS OF 850MB MOISTURE BUT POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS
REGION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS AND ALSO TO THE WEST WHERE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

STILL EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER WAS STILL
DROPPING SEWD WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW...IT DOES
NOT SEEM THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300425
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT 19Z
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE
CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE IN THE
WEST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRUSH WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH DECENT 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES IN THE
AREA AND POCKETS OF 850MB MOISTURE BUT POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS
REGION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS AND ALSO TO THE WEST WHERE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

STILL EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER WAS STILL
DROPPING SEWD WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW...IT DOES
NOT SEEM THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292307
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT 19Z
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE
CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE IN THE
WEST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRUSH WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH DECENT 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES IN THE
AREA AND POCKETS OF 850MB MOISTURE BUT POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS
REGION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS AND ALSO TO THE WEST WHERE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING
...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME SPOTTY TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA IN OUR AREA TOMORROW...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FEATURE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292307
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT 19Z
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE
CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE IN THE
WEST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRUSH WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH DECENT 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES IN THE
AREA AND POCKETS OF 850MB MOISTURE BUT POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS
REGION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS AND ALSO TO THE WEST WHERE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING
...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME SPOTTY TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA IN OUR AREA TOMORROW...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FEATURE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291955
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT 19Z
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE
CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE IN THE
WEST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRUSH WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH DECENT 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES IN THE
AREA AND POCKETS OF 850MB MOISTURE BUT POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS
REGION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS AND ALSO TO THE WEST WHERE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR FOG COULD
OCCUR AT KOMA FROM 10-14Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291708
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN HAS BE STAGNANT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN SO HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER OF CONCERN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. RAP13/HIRES ARW/HIRES NMM ALL ADVERTISE PCPN DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN AXIS OF 850-700MB QG FORCING/STRONG MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT
EXTENDING FM THE NEB PANH TO CNTRL KS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AREA OF LOW COND PRES DEF WHERE 310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE FOCUSED. AGAIN THOUGH...BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
W/SW OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS THEN DETERMINE IF POPS WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE
REST OF THE FCST PD WILL QUITE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT WITH A RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST. GIVEN THIS SEE LITTLE
REASON FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FCST. PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT
THRU TUES REVOLVING AROUND A FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECM DROPPING THE BNDRY SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS...SMALL POPS STILL REASONABLE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S
THRU THE EXTENDED PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR FOG COULD
OCCUR AT KOMA FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291708
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN HAS BE STAGNANT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN SO HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER OF CONCERN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. RAP13/HIRES ARW/HIRES NMM ALL ADVERTISE PCPN DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN AXIS OF 850-700MB QG FORCING/STRONG MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT
EXTENDING FM THE NEB PANH TO CNTRL KS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AREA OF LOW COND PRES DEF WHERE 310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE FOCUSED. AGAIN THOUGH...BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
W/SW OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS THEN DETERMINE IF POPS WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE
REST OF THE FCST PD WILL QUITE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT WITH A RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST. GIVEN THIS SEE LITTLE
REASON FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FCST. PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT
THRU TUES REVOLVING AROUND A FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECM DROPPING THE BNDRY SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS...SMALL POPS STILL REASONABLE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S
THRU THE EXTENDED PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR FOG COULD
OCCUR AT KOMA FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291112
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN HAS BE STAGNANT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN SO HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER OF CONCERN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. RAP13/HIRES ARW/HIRES NMM ALL ADVERTISE PCPN DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN AXIS OF 850-700MB QG FORCING/STRONG MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT
EXTENDING FM THE NEB PANH TO CNTRL KS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AREA OF LOW COND PRES DEF WHERE 310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE FOCUSED. AGAIN THOUGH...BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
W/SW OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS THEN DETERMINE IF POPS WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE
REST OF THE FCST PD WILL QUITE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT WITH A RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST. GIVEN THIS SEE LITTLE
REASON FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FCST. PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT
THRU TUES REVOLVING AROUND A FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECM DROPPING THE BNDRY SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS...SMALL POPS STILL REASONABLE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S
THRU THE EXTENDED PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT-BKN SC DECK
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT ALL 3
TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN
THIS EVENING AS THE SC DISSIPATE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291112
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN HAS BE STAGNANT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN SO HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER OF CONCERN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. RAP13/HIRES ARW/HIRES NMM ALL ADVERTISE PCPN DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN AXIS OF 850-700MB QG FORCING/STRONG MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT
EXTENDING FM THE NEB PANH TO CNTRL KS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AREA OF LOW COND PRES DEF WHERE 310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE FOCUSED. AGAIN THOUGH...BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
W/SW OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS THEN DETERMINE IF POPS WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE
REST OF THE FCST PD WILL QUITE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT WITH A RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST. GIVEN THIS SEE LITTLE
REASON FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FCST. PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT
THRU TUES REVOLVING AROUND A FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECM DROPPING THE BNDRY SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS...SMALL POPS STILL REASONABLE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S
THRU THE EXTENDED PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT-BKN SC DECK
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT ALL 3
TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN
THIS EVENING AS THE SC DISSIPATE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
212 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN HAS BE STAGNANT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN SO HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER OF CONCERN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. RAP13/HIRES ARW/HIRES NMM ALL ADVERTISE PCPN DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN AXIS OF 850-700MB QG FORCING/STRONG MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT
EXTENDING FM THE NEB PANH TO CNTRL KS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AREA OF LOW COND PRES DEF WHERE 310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE FOCUSED. AGAIN THOUGH...BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
W/SW OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS THEN DETERMINE IF POPS WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE
REST OF THE FCST PD WILL QUITE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT WITH A RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST. GIVEN THIS SEE LITTLE
REASON FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FCST. PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT
THRU TUES REVOLVING AROUND A FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECM DROPPING THE BNDRY SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS...SMALL POPS STILL REASONABLE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S
THRU THE EXTENDED PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. THEN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT FL040 CAN BE EXCEPTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
212 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN HAS BE STAGNANT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN SO HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER OF CONCERN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. RAP13/HIRES ARW/HIRES NMM ALL ADVERTISE PCPN DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN AXIS OF 850-700MB QG FORCING/STRONG MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT
EXTENDING FM THE NEB PANH TO CNTRL KS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AREA OF LOW COND PRES DEF WHERE 310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE FOCUSED. AGAIN THOUGH...BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
W/SW OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS THEN DETERMINE IF POPS WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE
REST OF THE FCST PD WILL QUITE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT WITH A RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST. GIVEN THIS SEE LITTLE
REASON FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FCST. PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT
THRU TUES REVOLVING AROUND A FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECM DROPPING THE BNDRY SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS...SMALL POPS STILL REASONABLE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S
THRU THE EXTENDED PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. THEN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT FL040 CAN BE EXCEPTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. THEN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT FL040 CAN BE EXCEPTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. THEN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT FL040 CAN BE EXCEPTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050 PREVAIL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050 PREVAIL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




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