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000
FXUS63 KOAX 280510
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1110 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM AS READINGS
WARM INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING SHARPLY SUNDAY.

WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ACROSS ERN/NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
CIRRUS UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
THIS COULD LIMIT MIXING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF FRONT ON SATURDAY ATTEMPTING TO COMPENSATE. IN GENERAL MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. NEARLY STEADY OR
POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SW/FAR W...WITH
MAYBE 10 DEGREES F WARMER READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A MORE SOLID
OR LESS SOLID CIRRUS DECK EITHER DAY COULD SUBTRACT OR ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO THESE NUMBERS.

SHARP COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
NEARLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HOURLY READINGS AS FA IS
GENERALLY SNOW FREE AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED SOME MIDDAY
RECOVERY POSSIBLE. NO FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH COLD FRONT...SINCE
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARED VERY LOW AND PERIOD IN QUESTION IS
LATE DAY 2/DAY 3.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT POSSIBLY KEPT IN CHECK BY WEAKER REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES. ECMWF CONTINUED TO WRING WEST COAST MOISTURE
OUT OVER ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS AND WAS DRY THRU NEXT
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY FOR WEDNESDAY NOW...ALTHOUGH
IT BROUGHT A TROUGH AND MOISTURE TOWARD FA BY THURSDAY. SINCE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY OVER THE FA...AND GFS IS NOW SO
FOR WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH ONLY
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 12KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280510
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1110 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM AS READINGS
WARM INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING SHARPLY SUNDAY.

WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ACROSS ERN/NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
CIRRUS UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
THIS COULD LIMIT MIXING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF FRONT ON SATURDAY ATTEMPTING TO COMPENSATE. IN GENERAL MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. NEARLY STEADY OR
POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SW/FAR W...WITH
MAYBE 10 DEGREES F WARMER READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A MORE SOLID
OR LESS SOLID CIRRUS DECK EITHER DAY COULD SUBTRACT OR ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO THESE NUMBERS.

SHARP COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
NEARLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HOURLY READINGS AS FA IS
GENERALLY SNOW FREE AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED SOME MIDDAY
RECOVERY POSSIBLE. NO FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH COLD FRONT...SINCE
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARED VERY LOW AND PERIOD IN QUESTION IS
LATE DAY 2/DAY 3.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT POSSIBLY KEPT IN CHECK BY WEAKER REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES. ECMWF CONTINUED TO WRING WEST COAST MOISTURE
OUT OVER ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS AND WAS DRY THRU NEXT
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY FOR WEDNESDAY NOW...ALTHOUGH
IT BROUGHT A TROUGH AND MOISTURE TOWARD FA BY THURSDAY. SINCE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY OVER THE FA...AND GFS IS NOW SO
FOR WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH ONLY
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 12KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272334
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
534 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM AS READINGS
WARM INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING SHARPLY SUNDAY.

WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ACROSS ERN/NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
CIRRUS UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
THIS COULD LIMIT MIXING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF FRONT ON SATURDAY ATTEMPTING TO COMPENSATE. IN GENERAL MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. NEARLY STEADY OR
POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SW/FAR W...WITH
MAYBE 10 DEGREES F WARMER READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A MORE SOLID
OR LESS SOLID CIRRUS DECK EITHER DAY COULD SUBTRACT OR ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO THESE NUMBERS.

SHARP COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
NEARLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HOURLY READINGS AS FA IS
GENERALLY SNOW FREE AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED SOME MIDDAY
RECOVERY POSSIBLE. NO FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH COLD FRONT...SINCE
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARED VERY LOW AND PERIOD IN QUESTION IS
LATE DAY 2/DAY 3.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT POSSIBLY KEPT IN CHECK BY WEAKER REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES. ECMWF CONTINUED TO WRING WEST COAST MOISTURE
OUT OVER ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS AND WAS DRY THRU NEXT
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY FOR WEDNESDAY NOW...ALTHOUGH
IT BROUGHT A TROUGH AND MOISTURE TOWARD FA BY THURSDAY. SINCE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY OVER THE FA...AND GFS IS NOW SO
FOR WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 272334
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
534 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM AS READINGS
WARM INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING SHARPLY SUNDAY.

WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ACROSS ERN/NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
CIRRUS UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
THIS COULD LIMIT MIXING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF FRONT ON SATURDAY ATTEMPTING TO COMPENSATE. IN GENERAL MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. NEARLY STEADY OR
POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SW/FAR W...WITH
MAYBE 10 DEGREES F WARMER READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A MORE SOLID
OR LESS SOLID CIRRUS DECK EITHER DAY COULD SUBTRACT OR ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO THESE NUMBERS.

SHARP COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
NEARLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HOURLY READINGS AS FA IS
GENERALLY SNOW FREE AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED SOME MIDDAY
RECOVERY POSSIBLE. NO FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH COLD FRONT...SINCE
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARED VERY LOW AND PERIOD IN QUESTION IS
LATE DAY 2/DAY 3.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT POSSIBLY KEPT IN CHECK BY WEAKER REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES. ECMWF CONTINUED TO WRING WEST COAST MOISTURE
OUT OVER ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS AND WAS DRY THRU NEXT
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY FOR WEDNESDAY NOW...ALTHOUGH
IT BROUGHT A TROUGH AND MOISTURE TOWARD FA BY THURSDAY. SINCE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY OVER THE FA...AND GFS IS NOW SO
FOR WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
232 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM AS READINGS
WARM INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING SHARPLY SUNDAY.

WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ACROSS ERN/NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
CIRRUS UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
THIS COULD LIMIT MIXING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF FRONT ON SATURDAY ATTEMPTING TO COMPENSATE. IN GENERAL MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. NEARLY STEADY OR
POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SW/FAR W...WITH
MAYBE 10 DEGREES F WARMER READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A MORE SOLID
OR LESS SOLID CIRRUS DECK EITHER DAY COULD SUBTRACT OR ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO THESE NUMBERS.

SHARP COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
NEARLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HOURLY READINGS AS FA IS
GENERALLY SNOW FREE AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED SOME MIDDAY
RECOVERY POSSIBLE. NO FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH COLD FRONT...SINCE
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARED VERY LOW AND PERIOD IN QUESTION IS
LATE DAY 2/DAY 3.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT POSSIBLY KEPT IN CHECK BY WEAKER REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES. ECMWF CONTINUED TO WRING WEST COAST MOISTURE
OUT OVER ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS AND WAS DRY THRU NEXT
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY FOR WEDNESDAY NOW...ALTHOUGH
IT BROUGHT A TROUGH AND MOISTURE TOWARD FA BY THURSDAY. SINCE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY OVER THE FA...AND GFS IS NOW SO
FOR WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID CLOUDS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 12 KNOTS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THEN DIMINISH BELOW LATTER HALF.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
232 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM AS READINGS
WARM INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING SHARPLY SUNDAY.

WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ACROSS ERN/NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
CIRRUS UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
THIS COULD LIMIT MIXING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF FRONT ON SATURDAY ATTEMPTING TO COMPENSATE. IN GENERAL MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. NEARLY STEADY OR
POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SW/FAR W...WITH
MAYBE 10 DEGREES F WARMER READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A MORE SOLID
OR LESS SOLID CIRRUS DECK EITHER DAY COULD SUBTRACT OR ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO THESE NUMBERS.

SHARP COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
NEARLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HOURLY READINGS AS FA IS
GENERALLY SNOW FREE AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED SOME MIDDAY
RECOVERY POSSIBLE. NO FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH COLD FRONT...SINCE
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARED VERY LOW AND PERIOD IN QUESTION IS
LATE DAY 2/DAY 3.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT POSSIBLY KEPT IN CHECK BY WEAKER REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES. ECMWF CONTINUED TO WRING WEST COAST MOISTURE
OUT OVER ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS AND WAS DRY THRU NEXT
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY FOR WEDNESDAY NOW...ALTHOUGH
IT BROUGHT A TROUGH AND MOISTURE TOWARD FA BY THURSDAY. SINCE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY OVER THE FA...AND GFS IS NOW SO
FOR WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID CLOUDS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 12 KNOTS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THEN DIMINISH BELOW LATTER HALF.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FOCUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AT 08Z WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR POST THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. THE MILD AIR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY MID WEEK.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID CLOUDS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 12 KNOTS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THEN DIMINISH BELOW LATTER HALF.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FOCUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AT 08Z WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR POST THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. THE MILD AIR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY MID WEEK.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID CLOUDS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 12 KNOTS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
THEN DIMINISH BELOW LATTER HALF.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271153
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
553 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FOCUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AT 08Z WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR POST THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. THE MILD AIR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY MID WEEK.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CLOUD BASES
MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KOFK FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN TONIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...DID NOT MENTION THAT IN THE TAFS...BUT
FOG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 271153
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
553 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FOCUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AT 08Z WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR POST THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. THE MILD AIR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY MID WEEK.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CLOUD BASES
MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KOFK FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN TONIGHT...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...DID NOT MENTION THAT IN THE TAFS...BUT
FOG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270830
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
230 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FOCUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AT 08Z WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR POST THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. THE MILD AIR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY MID WEEK.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

REGIONAL OBS/SATL PIX SHOWING THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR CIGS
HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. KOFK AND KOMA THOUGH ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CIGS.
GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH...EXPECT KOFK AND KOMA
TO IMPROVE TO VFR SOMETIME TWD 10Z THIS MORNING. VFR THEN
REMAINDER 0F FCST PD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270830
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
230 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FOCUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AT 08Z WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SPREADING MUCH WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR POST THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. THE MILD AIR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY MID WEEK.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

REGIONAL OBS/SATL PIX SHOWING THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR CIGS
HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. KOFK AND KOMA THOUGH ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CIGS.
GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH...EXPECT KOFK AND KOMA
TO IMPROVE TO VFR SOMETIME TWD 10Z THIS MORNING. VFR THEN
REMAINDER 0F FCST PD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 270522
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

REGIONAL OBS/SATL PIX SHOWING THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR CIGS
HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. KOFK AND KOMA THOUGH ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CIGS.
GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH...EXPECT KOFK AND KOMA
TO IMPROVE TO VFR SOMETIME TWD 10Z THIS MORNING. VFR THEN
REMAINDER 0F FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270522
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

REGIONAL OBS/SATL PIX SHOWING THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR CIGS
HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. KOFK AND KOMA THOUGH ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CIGS.
GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH...EXPECT KOFK AND KOMA
TO IMPROVE TO VFR SOMETIME TWD 10Z THIS MORNING. VFR THEN
REMAINDER 0F FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 262324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
524 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SWD WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. LATEST OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS PRETTY MUCH PREVAILING
ACROSS ERN NEB WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SUBSIDING WINDS SOMETIME
TWD 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR THEN REST OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
524 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SWD WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. LATEST OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS PRETTY MUCH PREVAILING
ACROSS ERN NEB WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SUBSIDING WINDS SOMETIME
TWD 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR THEN REST OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 262031
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 262031
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261755
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1155 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS/LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST
WINDS. DID INCLUDE A WINDS ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY WHEN
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TO
QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH STRONG
WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 261755
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1155 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS/LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST
WINDS. DID INCLUDE A WINDS ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY WHEN
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TO
QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH STRONG
WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261535
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS/LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST
WINDS. DID INCLUDE A WINDS ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY WHEN
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TO
QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH STRONG
WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOMEWHAT MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AROUND
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILING FOR THE MOST PART
AT KOFK AND KOMA BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN PCPN...WHICH WOULD
BE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KLNK WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN DROP OFF A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN IS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261535
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS/LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST
WINDS. DID INCLUDE A WINDS ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY WHEN
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TO
QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH STRONG
WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOMEWHAT MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AROUND
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILING FOR THE MOST PART
AT KOFK AND KOMA BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN PCPN...WHICH WOULD
BE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KLNK WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN DROP OFF A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN IS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 261120
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOMEWHAT MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AROUND
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILING FOR THE MOST PART
AT KOFK AND KOMA BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN PCPN...WHICH WOULD
BE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KLNK WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN DROP OFF A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN IS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 261120
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOMEWHAT MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AROUND
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILING FOR THE MOST PART
AT KOFK AND KOMA BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN PCPN...WHICH WOULD
BE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KLNK WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN DROP OFF A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN IS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 260527
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 260527
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252348
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
548 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE AREA...INCLUDING KOFK AND KOMA. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN LATER
THIS EVENING AT KOFK AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AS WELL...TURNING ANY -RA OVER
TO -SN. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252106
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 252106
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. PCPN INITIALLY WILL
BE IN LIQUID FORM...BUT SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY
AFTER 04Z AT KOFK AND AFTER 06Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. PCPN INITIALLY WILL
BE IN LIQUID FORM...BUT SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY
AFTER 04Z AT KOFK AND AFTER 06Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. MID CLOUDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
BY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PROGGED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. MID CLOUDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
BY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PROGGED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN





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