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000
FXUS63 KOAX 201144
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
644 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MONDAY CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
IN SHORT TERM.

AT THE SURFACE A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO SIOUX CITY
AT 08Z IS FORECAST TO LIFT A BIT NORTH AND/OR WASH OUT TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN U.S. AND A SRN TROUGH
MOVES A LITTLE NORTH OF EAST ACROSS SRN PLAINS. FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY REMAINS IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS TODAY/TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
A WEAK LOBE APPARENTLY IS/WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT UP INTO FA FROM
SRN SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS ON LOW SIDE ESPECIALLY
BELOW H85 AND ANY MOISTURE THERE IS WAS HAVING A HARD TIME
OVERCOMING MODEST CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE PER 00Z OAX/LBF/TOP
SOUNDINGS. MODEL QPF HAS BEEN POOR...GENERALLY OVERDOING
PCPN...AND CONFIDENCE IN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS THEY GIVE ARE LOW TO
SAY THE LEAST. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES SEEM A BIT MORE THIS MORNING
GIVEN MID DECK CIGS AT SOME LOCALS AND ACCAS APPEARANCE TO MORNING
STLT IMAGERY. AND WITH HEATING WOULD SUSPECT SOME INCREASE IN
POPS ARE IN ORDER LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN
OVERNIGHT AS NRN WAVE SENDS COLD FRONT INTO ECNTRL ZONES. OVERALL
THOUGH TRIMMED MOST POPS A BIT.

IT ALSO LOOKS LESS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BY WIDESPREAD PRECIP OR CONTINUAL THICK
CLOUDINESS WITH EVEN LAST HOLD-OUT ECMWF COMING AROUND TO WARMER
READINGS. GENERALLY BOOSTED A FEW DEGREES.

SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LAGS ACROSS SERN ZONES MONDAY
AFTN...POSSIBLY EVEN BEHIND WEAKENING COLD FRONT PER NAM. BECAUSE
OF THAT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHC FAR SE INTO MID AFTN. OTHERWISE PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS AND PROBABLY
FIRE DANGER INCREASE AGAIN AS DEWPOINTS LOWER INTO THE 30S/LOW
40S AND HIGHS REACH 70 OR BETTER.

RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR READINGS TO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE
INCREASE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
AREA IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
WITH LESS COVERAGE FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY AND HAVE RESPONDED WITH
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF. BOOSTED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES OVER PREV FORECAST/EARLIER MODEL BLEND ON WED.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST FRONT PUSHES DURING THE
DAY WED...STILL APPEARS SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
EXIST...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER SE THAN IT LOOKED EARLIER.

ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO OVERCOME A STRONG WRLY-DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURSDAY...HEATING AND SOME
MOISTURE LAGS AS MAIN CIRC CENTER...BY THEN THE PROBABLY
DEVELOPED...UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS THE LINGERING POPS PER PREV FCST STILL LOOK IN ORDER.

SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ALSO IN ORDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EWD...BUT AMOUNT OF WHICH WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
EXACT LATITUDE IT DOES EVENTUALLY SHIFT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
ALSO LATE NEXT WEEKEND...NEW DAY 7...LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING...
ESPECIALLY PER 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z AS UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE HIGH PLAINS DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 200807
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MONDAY CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
IN SHORT TERM.

AT THE SURFACE A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO SIOUX CITY
AT 08Z IS FORECAST TO LIFT A BIT NORTH AND/OR WASH OUT TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN U.S. AND A SRN TROUGH
MOVES A LITTLE NORTH OF EAST ACROSS SRN PLAINS. FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY REMAINS IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS TODAY/TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
A WEAK LOBE APPARENTLY IS/WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT UP INTO FA FROM
SRN SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS ON LOW SIDE ESPECIALLY
BELOW H85 AND ANY MOISTURE THERE IS WAS HAVING A HARD TIME
OVERCOMING MODEST CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE PER 00Z OAX/LBF/TOP
SOUNDINGS. MODEL QPF HAS BEEN POOR...GENERALLY OVERDOING
PCPN...AND CONFIDENCE IN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS THEY GIVE ARE LOW TO
SAY THE LEAST. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES SEEM A BIT MORE THIS MORNING
GIVEN MID DECK CIGS AT SOME LOCALS AND ACCAS APPEARANCE TO MORNING
STLT IMAGERY. AND WITH HEATING WOULD SUSPECT SOME INCREASE IN
POPS ARE IN ORDER LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN
OVERNIGHT AS NRN WAVE SENDS COLD FRONT INTO ECNTRL ZONES. OVERALL
THOUGH TRIMMED MOST POPS A BIT.

IT ALSO LOOKS LESS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BY WIDESPREAD PRECIP OR CONTINUAL THICK
CLOUDINESS WITH EVEN LAST HOLD-OUT ECMWF COMING AROUND TO WARMER
READINGS. GENERALLY BOOSTED A FEW DEGREES.

SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LAGS ACROSS SERN ZONES MONDAY
AFTN...POSSIBLY EVEN BEHIND WEAKENING COLD FRONT PER NAM. BECAUSE
OF THAT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHC FAR SE INTO MID AFTN. OTHERWISE PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS AND PROBABLY
FIRE DANGER INCREASE AGAIN AS DEWPOINTS LOWER INTO THE 30S/LOW
40S AND HIGHS REACH 70 OR BETTER.

RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR READINGS TO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE
INCREASE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
AREA IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
WITH LESS COVERAGE FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY AND HAVE RESPONDED WITH
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF. BOOSTED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES OVER PREV FORECAST/EARLIER MODEL BLEND ON WED.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST FRONT PUSHES DURING THE
DAY WED...STILL APPEARS SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
EXIST...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER SE THAN IT LOOKED EARLIER.

ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO OVERCOME A STRONG WRLY-DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURSDAY...HEATING AND SOME
MOISTURE LAGS AS MAIN CIRC CENTER...BY THEN THE PROBABLY
DEVELOPED...UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS THE LINGERING POPS PER PREV FCST STILL LOOK IN ORDER.

SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ALSO IN ORDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EWD...BUT AMOUNT OF WHICH WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
EXACT LATITUDE IT DOES EVENTUALLY SHIFT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
ALSO LATE NEXT WEEKEND...NEW DAY 7...LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING...
ESPECIALLY PER 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT REMAINS NEAR KOFK AND THE WINDS THERE ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWEST AND THE WINDS GO SOUTH
SIMILAR TO KOMA/KLNK. SHRA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND HAVE
REMOVED PRECIP MENTION FROM KOFK TAF...BUT AN ISO SHRA STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. WE DO EXPECT A
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA ON SUN BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 200449
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 70S ON
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
RETURN. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S READINGS WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP HEIGHT
FIELDS WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WAS TRIGGERING
MID LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ONLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED THERE AS LOW
HUMIDITIES EXIST BELOW MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. CONGESTUS CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AREA OF INCREASING
BUT STILL WEAK INSTABILITY.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING EAST THROUGH ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES
WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE FRONT. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THE SLOW
MOISTURE RETURN WAS HOLDING INSTABILITY IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9 C/KM WERE ALREADY IN PLACE IN WESTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVER TOP OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND
MESO SCALE MODELS (NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF) INDICATE CONVECTION
POPPING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOMETIME IN THE 23Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...AND DEVELOP/SPREAD THIS
NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WHEN STORMS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CAPE
800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 25KT...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX ROLLS OUT OF OUR AREA.

THEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE...LIKELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD
FRONT BRIDGING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AFTERNOON
SURFACE CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS LIMITED. SO
AGAIN SEVERE CHANCES ARE SMALL...BUT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN COOLING ALOFT FROM UPPER TROUGH. WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR I-80 AND SOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING SKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN WILL RULE THE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. THAT TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THAT PASSES
BY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AT MID WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES
UNDER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT STRONG THEN...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT BETTER CHANCES COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
UNDER DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND 60KT LOW LEVEL JET. TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES WILL STILL HAVE TO BE FINE-TUNED WITH
LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT REMAINS NEAR KOFK AND THE WINDS THERE ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWEST AND THE WINDS GO SOUTH
SIMILAR TO KOMA/KLNK. SHRA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND HAVE
REMOVED PRECIP MENTION FROM KOFK TAF...BUT AN ISO SHRA STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. WE DO EXPECT A
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA ON SUN BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 192340
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
640 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 70S ON
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
RETURN. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S READINGS WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP HEIGHT
FIELDS WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WAS TRIGGERING
MID LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ONLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED THERE AS LOW
HUMIDITIES EXIST BELOW MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. CONGESTUS CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AREA OF INCREASING
BUT STILL WEAK INSTABILITY.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING EAST THROUGH ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES
WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE FRONT. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THE SLOW
MOISTURE RETURN WAS HOLDING INSTABILITY IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9 C/KM WERE ALREADY IN PLACE IN WESTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVER TOP OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND
MESO SCALE MODELS (NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF) INDICATE CONVECTION
POPPING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOMETIME IN THE 23Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...AND DEVELOP/SPREAD THIS
NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WHEN STORMS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CAPE
800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 25KT...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX ROLLS OUT OF OUR AREA.

THEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE...LIKELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD
FRONT BRIDGING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AFTERNOON
SURFACE CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS LIMITED. SO
AGAIN SEVERE CHANCES ARE SMALL...BUT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN COOLING ALOFT FROM UPPER TROUGH. WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR I-80 AND SOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING SKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN WILL RULE THE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. THAT TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THAT PASSES
BY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AT MID WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES
UNDER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT STRONG THEN...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT BETTER CHANCES COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
UNDER DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND 60KT LOW LEVEL JET. TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES WILL STILL HAVE TO BE FINE-TUNED WITH
LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS VERY NEAR KOFK AS OF 23Z AND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCT
SHRA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP AT KOFK DURING
THE TIME WHEN MODELS INDICATE THE LIFT IS STRONGEST. WE WILL LEAVE
THE KOMA/KLNK TAFS DRY ATTM AS MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FOCUS
NEAR THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONT ON SUN AND WE MAY SEE
ISO-SCT SHRA AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ACTIVITY IS TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ATTM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 192021
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 70S ON
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
RETURN. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S READINGS WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP HEIGHT
FIELDS WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WAS TRIGGERING
MID LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ONLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED THERE AS LOW
HUMIDITIES EXIST BELOW MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. CONGESTUS CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AREA OF INCREASING
BUT STILL WEAK INSTABILITY.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING EAST THROUGH ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES
WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE FRONT. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THE SLOW
MOISTURE RETURN WAS HOLDING INSTABILITY IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9 C/KM WERE ALREADY IN PLACE IN WESTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVER TOP OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND
MESO SCALE MODELS (NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF) INDICATE CONVECTION
POPPING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOMETIME IN THE 23Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...AND DEVELOP/SPREAD THIS
NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WHEN STORMS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CAPE
800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 25KT...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX ROLLS OUT OF OUR AREA.

THEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE...LIKELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD
FRONT BRIDGING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AFTERNOON
SURFACE CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS LIMITED. SO
AGAIN SEVERE CHANCES ARE SMALL...BUT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN COOLING ALOFT FROM UPPER TROUGH. WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR I-80 AND SOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING SKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN WILL RULE THE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. THAT TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THAT PASSES
BY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AT MID WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES
UNDER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT STRONG THEN...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT BETTER CHANCES COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
UNDER DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND 60KT LOW LEVEL JET. TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES WILL STILL HAVE TO BE FINE-TUNED WITH
LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO STALL. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR 02-10Z AND AGAIN AT KOFK FROM
12-18Z SUN. MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 191749
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1249 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MODESTLY STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVING EWD NEAR CANADIAN/U.S. ND BORDER AT 08Z. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NWRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...SRN OPEN TROUGH NEAR CA/AZ BORDER AND ANY MOISTURE/ENERGY
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF IT APPEARS TO BE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF FRONT IN NRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING/SLOWING FRONT NRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...APPEARS BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE WSW ZONES THIS
EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF SRN TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH AFTN HEATING ALLOWING LATE AFTN DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR
SW OF AREA. THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
BY NAM/GFS WHICH HAS ALSO INFLUENCED THE SREF MEMBERS...FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. MOISTURE AND SHEAR...HOWEVER...ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR FA...BUT IF WE CAN MANAGE TO HEAT TOWARD OR
ABOVE FORECAST MAX TEMPS NEAR 80...MODEST CAPES WILL DEVELOP WITH
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HRS. MADE LTL/NO
CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS TODAY...GUID/PREV FORECAST LOOK GOOD.

IF THE EXPECTED SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS NEAR/SW OF FA
THIS EVENING...WOULD EXPECT IT TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO ERN/NERN
ZONES TOWARD MORNING IN SWRLY UPPER FLOW AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO
SWRLY. THUS EXPANDED LIKELY POPS FROM WRN ZONES THIS EVENING ENE
THROUGH 06-07Z. RELATIVELY HIGH POPS SEEM IN ORDER THEN FOR SUNDAY
AS SRN TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN KS/WRN OK REGION. FORECAST A DIURNAL
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN LULL IN HIGHER POPS BEFORE ANY HEATING
INTERACTS WITH MID LVL MOISTURE/TROUGH TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
EXPECTED COVERAGE BY AFTN/EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE MILD SO ANY
BREAKS IN OVC/PRECIP SHOULD ALLOW HEATING INTO 70S...ESPECIALLY
SERN ZONES. STILL COULD BE A SMALL AREA WHERE READINGS FAIL TO GET
OUT OF LOW 60S BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT NOT GREAT ENOUGH
TO CHANGE HIGHS ANY NRN ZONES. FORECAST DEEP SHEAR EVEN WEAKER FOR
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH INSTABILITY LESS...SO STRENGTH OF STORMS DO
NOT CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AN ISSUE.

ALTHOUGH SRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD MOISTURE/LIFT WILL INFLUENCE MAINLY
SERN 2/3RDS OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH IN NRN
STEAM MOVING ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A
REINFORCING PUSH TO CDFNT INTO NRN ZONES LATE. THIS COULD BRING AN
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT BEHIND MAIN PRECIP AREA WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO SERN ZONES BY MONDAY MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT ALL ZONES TO DRY OUT MONDAY AFTN AND THAT PERIOD WAS
CONTINUED DRY...WITH HIGHS A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AFTER A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY ACTIVE WEATHER STILL ON TAP FOR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
FA TUE NGT INTO WED PERIOD AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. IF PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH WED...WHICH HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY ECMWF FOR SEVERAL RUNS
NOW...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH MEX NUMBERS WHICH WERE
A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER THAN ECMWF. FOR NOW LEFT PREV FORECAST/MODEL
BLEND IN PLACE WHICH WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW MEX.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WED COULD ALSO ALTER COVERAGE OF SEVERITY OF
STORMS OVER FA BUT UPPER SYSTEM STRENGTH ALONE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW
AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA BECOMING UNDER SLIGHT RISK AREA IN WED-
MIDDAY THU PERIOD. HOW EFFICIENT/QUICKLY UPPER LOW CLEARS OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE POPS/PSBL TSTM
STRENGTH THAT DAY...AND WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF IT LINGERING FOR
A WHILE THU...WILL PROBABLY KEEP SOME MENTION IN HWO. COOLER BUT
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THEN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO STALL. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR 02-10Z AND AGAIN AT KOFK FROM
12-18Z SUN. MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 191056
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
556 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MODESTLY STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVING EWD NEAR CANADIAN/U.S. ND BORDER AT 08Z. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NWRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...SRN OPEN TROUGH NEAR CA/AZ BORDER AND ANY MOISTURE/ENERGY
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF IT APPEARS TO BE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF FRONT IN NRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING/SLOWING FRONT NRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...APPEARS BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE WSW ZONES THIS
EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF SRN TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH AFTN HEATING ALLOWING LATE AFTN DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR
SW OF AREA. THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
BY NAM/GFS WHICH HAS ALSO INFLUENCED THE SREF MEMBERS...FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. MOISTURE AND SHEAR...HOWEVER...ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR FA...BUT IF WE CAN MANAGE TO HEAT TOWARD OR
ABOVE FORECAST MAX TEMPS NEAR 80...MODEST CAPES WILL DEVELOP WITH
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HRS. MADE LTL/NO
CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS TODAY...GUID/PREV FORECAST LOOK GOOD.

IF THE EXPECTED SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS NEAR/SW OF FA
THIS EVENING...WOULD EXPECT IT TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO ERN/NERN
ZONES TOWARD MORNING IN SWRLY UPPER FLOW AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO
SWRLY. THUS EXPANDED LIKELY POPS FROM WRN ZONES THIS EVENING ENE
THROUGH 06-07Z. RELATIVELY HIGH POPS SEEM IN ORDER THEN FOR SUNDAY
AS SRN TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN KS/WRN OK REGION. FORECAST A DIURNAL
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN LULL IN HIGHER POPS BEFORE ANY HEATING
INTERACTS WITH MID LVL MOISTURE/TROUGH TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
EXPECTED COVERAGE BY AFTN/EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE MILD SO ANY
BREAKS IN OVC/PRECIP SHOULD ALLOW HEATING INTO 70S...ESPECIALLY
SERN ZONES. STILL COULD BE A SMALL AREA WHERE READINGS FAIL TO GET
OUT OF LOW 60S BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT NOT GREAT ENOUGH
TO CHANGE HIGHS ANY NRN ZONES. FORECAST DEEP SHEAR EVEN WEAKER FOR
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH INSTABILITY LESS...SO STRENGTH OF STORMS DO
NOT CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AN ISSUE.

ALTHOUGH SRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD MOISTURE/LIFT WILL INFLUENCE MAINLY
SERN 2/3RDS OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH IN NRN
STEAM MOVING ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A
REINFORCING PUSH TO CDFNT INTO NRN ZONES LATE. THIS COULD BRING AN
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT BEHIND MAIN PRECIP AREA WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO SERN ZONES BY MONDAY MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT ALL ZONES TO DRY OUT MONDAY AFTN AND THAT PERIOD WAS
CONTINUED DRY...WITH HIGHS A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AFTER A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY ACTIVE WEATHER STILL ON TAP FOR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
FA TUE NGT INTO WED PERIOD AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. IF PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH WED...WHICH HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY ECMWF FOR SEVERAL RUNS
NOW...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH MEX NUMBERS WHICH WERE
A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER THAN ECMWF. FOR NOW LEFT PREV FORECAST/MODEL
BLEND IN PLACE WHICH WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW MEX.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WED COULD ALSO ALTER COVERAGE OF SEVERITY OF
STORMS OVER FA BUT UPPER SYSTEM STRENGTH ALONE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW
AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA BECOMING UNDER SLIGHT RISK AREA IN WED-
MIDDAY THU PERIOD. HOW EFFICIENT/QUICKLY UPPER LOW CLEARS OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE POPS/PSBL TSTM
STRENGTH THAT DAY...AND WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF IT LINGERING FOR
A WHILE THU...WILL PROBABLY KEEP SOME MENTION IN HWO. COOLER BUT
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THEN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND BECOMES STATIONARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
STALLED FRONT ACTS AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 190810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MODESTLY STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVING EWD NEAR CANADIAN/U.S. ND BORDER AT 08Z. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NWRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...SRN OPEN TROUGH NEAR CA/AZ BORDER AND ANY MOISTURE/ENERGY
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF IT APPEARS TO BE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF FRONT IN NRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING/SLOWING FRONT NRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...APPEARS BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE WSW ZONES THIS
EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF SRN TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH AFTN HEATING ALLOWING LATE AFTN DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR
SW OF AREA. THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
BY NAM/GFS WHICH HAS ALSO INFLUENCED THE SREF MEMBERS...FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. MOISTURE AND SHEAR...HOWEVER...ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR FA...BUT IF WE CAN MANAGE TO HEAT TOWARD OR
ABOVE FORECAST MAX TEMPS NEAR 80...MODEST CAPES WILL DEVELOP WITH
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HRS. MADE LTL/NO
CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS TODAY...GUID/PREV FORECAST LOOK GOOD.

IF THE EXPECTED SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS NEAR/SW OF FA
THIS EVENING...WOULD EXPECT IT TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO ERN/NERN
ZONES TOWARD MORNING IN SWRLY UPPER FLOW AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO
SWRLY. THUS EXPANDED LIKELY POPS FROM WRN ZONES THIS EVENING ENE
THROUGH 06-07Z. RELATIVELY HIGH POPS SEEM IN ORDER THEN FOR SUNDAY
AS SRN TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN KS/WRN OK REGION. FORECAST A DIURNAL
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN LULL IN HIGHER POPS BEFORE ANY HEATING
INTERACTS WITH MID LVL MOISTURE/TROUGH TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
EXPECTED COVERAGE BY AFTN/EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE MILD SO ANY
BREAKS IN OVC/PRECIP SHOULD ALLOW HEATING INTO 70S...ESPECIALLY
SERN ZONES. STILL COULD BE A SMALL AREA WHERE READINGS FAIL TO GET
OUT OF LOW 60S BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT NOT GREAT ENOUGH
TO CHANGE HIGHS ANY NRN ZONES. FORECAST DEEP SHEAR EVEN WEAKER FOR
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH INSTABILITY LESS...SO STRENGTH OF STORMS DO
NOT CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AN ISSUE.

ALTHOUGH SRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD MOISTURE/LIFT WILL INFLUENCE MAINLY
SERN 2/3RDS OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH IN NRN
STEAM MOVING ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A
REINFORCING PUSH TO CDFNT INTO NRN ZONES LATE. THIS COULD BRING AN
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT BEHIND MAIN PRECIP AREA WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO SERN ZONES BY MONDAY MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT ALL ZONES TO DRY OUT MONDAY AFTN AND THAT PERIOD WAS
CONTINUED DRY...WITH HIGHS A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AFTER A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY ACTIVE WEATHER STILL ON TAP FOR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
FA TUE NGT INTO WED PERIOD AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. IF PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH WED...WHICH HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY ECMWF FOR SEVERAL RUNS
NOW...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH MEX NUMBERS WHICH WERE
A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER THAN ECMWF. FOR NOW LEFT PREV FORECAST/MODEL
BLEND IN PLACE WHICH WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW MEX.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WED COULD ALSO ALTER COVERAGE OF SEVERITY OF
STORMS OVER FA BUT UPPER SYSTEM STRENGTH ALONE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW
AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA BECOMING UNDER SLIGHT RISK AREA IN WED-
MIDDAY THU PERIOD. HOW EFFICIENT/QUICKLY UPPER LOW CLEARS OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE POPS/PSBL TSTM
STRENGTH THAT DAY...AND WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF IT LINGERING FOR
A WHILE THU...WILL PROBABLY KEEP SOME MENTION IN HWO. COOLER BUT
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THEN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARGINAL-LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KOFK AROUND 00Z BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO KOMA/KLNK UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT
SHRA OR POSSIBLY AN ISO TSRA OR TWO ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BY 00Z SUN. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINLY IN COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 190448
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT...BUT WE DID UPDATE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE FA. A
GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CIRRUS ALONG WITH WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT MAY
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FLAT UPPER RIDGING WAS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF MEAN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN
BAJA. UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM NORTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TOWARD HUNDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL NUDGE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS...REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN PART OF WESTERN TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. SO NET RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BE FOR SATURDAY COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL SOUTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THUS CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND PRESSURES LOWER IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS SHOULD HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE HIGHER PARTICULATE
CONCENTRATIONS FROM SMOKE AND DUST THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG
MORNING INVERSION. THOSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS ONLY
IN THE 40S FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER A PLUME
OF 50S DEW POINTS IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80...BUT RELATIVELY MILD
AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE BASED CAPES WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO LIMITED TO 20-25KT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE
COOLING ALOFT FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST. THIS WAVE WILL
EJECT TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY THEN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
APPROACH OF SOUTHERN UPPER WAVE. COLD FRONT SHOULD SET UP
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 80 IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS TOWARD
60F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...SURFACE-
BASED CAPES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. UPPER FLOW
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO AGAIN SHEAR IS MINIMAL WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR NEAR 20KT. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT MAYBE A
LITTLE BETTER THAN SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...AND ONLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL
THERE BE LINGERING CHANCES MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
WILL CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN HIGHS IN THE 70S IF NOT SOME 80S WILL RULE.

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ON WEDNESDAY...IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. COULD SEE ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BETTER
CHANCES SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND SHOVES SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEW POINTS AGAIN SHOULD APPROACH 60
WITH COOLING ALOFT. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET
KICKS UP...WITH GFS FORECASTING 50KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CERTAINLY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES
STILL IN QUESTION FOR LOCATION OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER SEVERE
MODE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT SWEEPS
TO THE EAST. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY...AND EVEN COOLER FRIDAY AS CORE OF COLD AIR SETTLES SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARGINAL-LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KOFK AROUND 00Z BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO KOMA/KLNK UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT
SHRA OR POSSIBLY AN ISO TSRA OR TWO ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BY 00Z SUN. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINLY IN COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 190245
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
945 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT...BUT WE DID UPDATE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE FA. A
GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CIRRUS ALONG WITH WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT MAY
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FLAT UPPER RIDGING WAS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF MEAN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN
BAJA. UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM NORTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TOWARD HUNDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL NUDGE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS...REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN PART OF WESTERN TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. SO NET RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BE FOR SATURDAY COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL SOUTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THUS CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND PRESSURES LOWER IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS SHOULD HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE HIGHER PARTICULATE
CONCENTRATIONS FROM SMOKE AND DUST THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG
MORNING INVERSION. THOSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS ONLY
IN THE 40S FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER A PLUME
OF 50S DEW POINTS IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80...BUT RELATIVELY MILD
AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE BASED CAPES WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO LIMITED TO 20-25KT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE
COOLING ALOFT FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST. THIS WAVE WILL
EJECT TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY THEN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
APPROACH OF SOUTHERN UPPER WAVE. COLD FRONT SHOULD SET UP
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 80 IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS TOWARD
60F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...SURFACE-
BASED CAPES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. UPPER FLOW
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO AGAIN SHEAR IS MINIMAL WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR NEAR 20KT. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT MAYBE A
LITTLE BETTER THAN SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...AND ONLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL
THERE BE LINGERING CHANCES MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
WILL CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN HIGHS IN THE 70S IF NOT SOME 80S WILL RULE.

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ON WEDNESDAY...IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. COULD SEE ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BETTER
CHANCES SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND SHOVES SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEW POINTS AGAIN SHOULD APPROACH 60
WITH COOLING ALOFT. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET
KICKS UP...WITH GFS FORECASTING 50KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CERTAINLY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES
STILL IN QUESTION FOR LOCATION OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER SEVERE
MODE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT SWEEPS
TO THE EAST. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY...AND EVEN COOLER FRIDAY AS CORE OF COLD AIR SETTLES SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 452 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA WE WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOP AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD KOFK BY SAT
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF AT ALL 3 SITES TILL AFTER 00Z
SUN. AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SATURDAY WE MAY SEE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ANY THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 182157
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
457 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FLAT UPPER RIDGING WAS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF MEAN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN
BAJA. UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM NORTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TOWARD HUNDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL NUDGE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS...REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN PART OF WESTERN TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. SO NET RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BE FOR SATURDAY COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL SOUTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THUS CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND PRESSURES LOWER IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS SHOULD HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE HIGHER PARTICULATE
CONCENTRATIONS FROM SMOKE AND DUST THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG
MORNING INVERSION. THOSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS ONLY
IN THE 40S FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER A PLUME
OF 50S DEW POINTS IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80...BUT RELATIVELY MILD
AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE BASED CAPES WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO LIMITED TO 20-25KT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE
COOLING ALOFT FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST. THIS WAVE WILL
EJECT TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY THEN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
APPROACH OF SOUTHERN UPPER WAVE. COLD FRONT SHOULD SET UP
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 80 IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS TOWARD
60F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...SURFACE-
BASED CAPES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. UPPER FLOW
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO AGAIN SHEAR IS MINIMAL WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR NEAR 20KT. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT MAYBE A
LITTLE BETTER THAN SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...AND ONLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL
THERE BE LINGERING CHANCES MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
WILL CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN HIGHS IN THE 70S IF NOT SOME 80S WILL RULE.

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ON WEDNESDAY...IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. COULD SEE ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BETTER
CHANCES SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND SHOVES SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEW POINTS AGAIN SHOULD APPROACH 60
WITH COOLING ALOFT. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET
KICKS UP...WITH GFS FORECASTING 50KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CERTAINLY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES
STILL IN QUESTION FOR LOCATION OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER SEVERE
MODE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT SWEEPS
TO THE EAST. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY...AND EVEN COOLER FRIDAY AS CORE OF COLD AIR SETTLES SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 452 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA WE WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOP AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD KOFK BY SAT
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF AT ALL 3 SITES TILL AFTER 00Z
SUN. AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SATURDAY WE MAY SEE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ANY THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 182030
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FLAT UPPER RIDGING WAS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF MEAN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN
BAJA. UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM NORTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TOWARD HUNDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL NUDGE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS...REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN PART OF WESTERN TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. SO NET RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BE FOR SATURDAY COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL SOUTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THUS CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND PRESSURES LOWER IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS SHOULD HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE HIGHER PARTICULATE
CONCENTRATIONS FROM SMOKE AND DUST THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG
MORNING INVERSION. THOSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS ONLY
IN THE 40S FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER A PLUME
OF 50S DEW POINTS IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80...BUT RELATIVELY MILD
AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE BASED CAPES WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO LIMITED TO 20-25KT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE
COOLING ALOFT FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST. THIS WAVE WILL
EJECT TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY THEN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
APPROACH OF SOUTHERN UPPER WAVE. COLD FRONT SHOULD SET UP
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 80 IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS TOWARD
60F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...SURFACE-
BASED CAPES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. UPPER FLOW
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO AGAIN SHEAR IS MINIMAL WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR NEAR 20KT. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT MAYBE A
LITTLE BETTER THAN SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...AND ONLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL
THERE BE LINGERING CHANCES MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
WILL CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN HIGHS IN THE 70S IF NOT SOME 80S WILL RULE.

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ON WEDNESDAY...IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. COULD SEE ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BETTER
CHANCES SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND SHOVES SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEW POINTS AGAIN SHOULD APPROACH 60
WITH COOLING ALOFT. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL JET
KICKS UP...WITH GFS FORECASTING 50KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CERTAINLY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES
STILL IN QUESTION FOR LOCATION OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER SEVERE
MODE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT SWEEPS
TO THE EAST. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY...AND EVEN COOLER FRIDAY AS CORE OF COLD AIR SETTLES SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. MORNING
SMOKE AND HAZE HAS MIXED OUT AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS INCREASE AND GUST TO
NEAR 30 KTS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM NEAR 06Z THROUGH 15Z OR SO AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 181743
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1243 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF...AS WEST COAST SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

HOWEVER...BEFORE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER PLAINS TODAY WILL PROVIDE
WARM ADVECTION AS NRN SECTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH BRINGS
FALLING PRESSURES OVER WRN PLAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FA...ESPECIALLY
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IN TURN SHOULD BRING AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
TO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS COULD RECOVER A
BIT TODAY...LOWERING THEM TOWARD GUIDANCE DID PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. PREV FORECAST TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE AND WERE SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/MODEL GUIDANCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD KICK OFF A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS
IN NWRN ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AS ANY ENERGY ON SRN SIDE OF NRN
STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS. HOWEVER...AS THAT TROUGH DEPARTS WOULD
SUSPECT BETTER CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE FEEDS
NORTH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SRN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH
REGION. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS OF GFS/ECMWF...H85
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST THRU SAT AFTN COMPARED
TO LAST SATURDAY SO MAIN ACTION MAY WAIT FOR DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING. THUS ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A
DECREASED CHANCE MANY AREAS SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY FOCUSED AFT 06Z. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT SERN ZONES AHEAD OF
WEAK BOUNDARY AS H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF IT.

SUNDAY BECOMES MORE TRICKY AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
EJECTING ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PLAINS BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FA. WITH H85 TEMPS INITIALLY ANYWAY PRETTY MILD ANY BREAKS IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PROVIDE A QUICK BOOST INTO 70S WHILE AREAS
WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN COULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60/MID 60S. IN
GENERAL FOCUSED COOLER TEMPS GENERALLY WHERE GFS/ECMWF FOCUSED QPF
AXIS ACROSS WRN ZONES AND ALSO BOOSTED POPS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY
PARTS OF THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

DEPARTING ENERGY EARLY MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SERN ZONES WITH SMALL
MOSTLY MORNING POPS MONDAY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY MON AFTN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SINCE THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE AN ACTIVE
MID/LATE WEEK...REMOVED SMALL POPS WITH WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY.
BOOSTED READINGS A BIT ON WED AS THAT WILL BE SECOND DAY OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH ALTHOUGH IF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD/LINGERS MUCH OF THE DAY THIS WOULD BE IN
ERROR. OTHERWISE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST/MODEL BLEND
TO TEMPS. DECENT RAIN/TSTM CHANCES RETURN IN LATE WED-THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY NEW DAY 7 PERIOD IF UPPER TROUGH CLOSES NW OF AREA
PER GFS INSTEAD OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. IN ANY
EVENT...LOOKS LIKE DECENT CHANCE MANY AREAS COULD SEE DECENT 7
DAY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND+NEXT WED/THU
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. MORNING
SMOKE AND HAZE HAS MIXED OUT AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS INCREASE AND GUST TO
NEAR 30 KTS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM NEAR 06Z THROUGH 15Z OR SO AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 180802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF...AS WEST COAST SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

HOWEVER...BEFORE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER PLAINS TODAY WILL PROVIDE
WARM ADVECTION AS NRN SECTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH BRINGS
FALLING PRESSURES OVER WRN PLAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FA...ESPECIALLY
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IN TURN SHOULD BRING AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
TO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS COULD RECOVER A
BIT TODAY...LOWERING THEM TOWARD GUIDANCE DID PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. PREV FORECAST TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE AND WERE SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/MODEL GUIDANCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD KICK OFF A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS
IN NWRN ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AS ANY ENERGY ON SRN SIDE OF NRN
STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS. HOWEVER...AS THAT TROUGH DEPARTS WOULD
SUSPECT BETTER CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE FEEDS
NORTH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SRN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH
REGION. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS OF GFS/ECMWF...H85
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST THRU SAT AFTN COMPARED
TO LAST SATURDAY SO MAIN ACTION MAY WAIT FOR DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING. THUS ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A
DECREASED CHANCE MANY AREAS SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY FOCUSED AFT 06Z. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT SERN ZONES AHEAD OF
WEAK BOUNDARY AS H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF IT.

SUNDAY BECOMES MORE TRICKY AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
EJECTING ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PLAINS BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FA. WITH H85 TEMPS INITIALLY ANYWAY PRETTY MILD ANY BREAKS IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PROVIDE A QUICK BOOST INTO 70S WHILE AREAS
WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN COULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60/MID 60S. IN
GENERAL FOCUSED COOLER TEMPS GENERALLY WHERE GFS/ECMWF FOCUSED QPF
AXIS ACROSS WRN ZONES AND ALSO BOOSTED POPS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY
PARTS OF THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

DEPARTING ENERGY EARLY MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SERN ZONES WITH SMALL
MOSTLY MORNING POPS MONDAY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY MON AFTN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SINCE THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE AN ACTIVE
MID/LATE WEEK...REMOVED SMALL POPS WITH WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY.
BOOSTED READINGS A BIT ON WED AS THAT WILL BE SECOND DAY OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH ALTHOUGH IF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD/LINGERS MUCH OF THE DAY THIS WOULD BE IN
ERROR. OTHERWISE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST/MODEL BLEND
TO TEMPS. DECENT RAIN/TSTM CHANCES RETURN IN LATE WED-THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY NEW DAY 7 PERIOD IF UPPER TROUGH CLOSES NW OF AREA
PER GFS INSTEAD OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. IN ANY
EVENT...LOOKS LIKE DECENT CHANCE MANY AREAS COULD SEE DECENT 7
DAY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND+NEXT WED/THU
PERIODS.

&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH
25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY
IN THE EVENING...BUT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. DID NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW
BUT IT MAY BE NEED IN LATER TAFS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 180445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER INITIALLY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS SECOND WAVE COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHEASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN IA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEWPOINTS INITIALLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...WEST
CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
 WILL BE DRY...BUT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP
BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWEST ACROSS WESTERN  IOWA...AND A BIT HIGHER IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA... BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY EVENING. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
NEAR THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 21Z SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING WHEN A WEAK CAP
ERODES. INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WIND SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANYTHING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT KICKER TO PUSH IT OUT.
THE GFS IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDING ONTO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS COULD BRING SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. PRECIP DEFICITS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 2 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL...DESPITE THE GENEROUS RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND. HAVE COORDINATED
WITH MBRFC ON POTENTIAL RIVER FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...CONVECTIVE THREAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD STILL A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE SOUTH OF I80 EARLY
MONDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THE ORIGINAL
STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN US EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD
AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE...COMBINED
WITH TYPICAL LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE THROUGH AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT MID WEEK...BUT WAY TO FAR OUT
TO FIGURE OUT ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH
25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY
IN THE EVENING...BUT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. DID NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW
BUT IT MAY BE NEED IN LATER TAFS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 172310
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER INITIALLY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS SECOND WAVE COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHEASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN IA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WILL BE DRY...BUT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP
BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWEST ACROSS WESTERN  IOWA...AND A BIT HIGHER IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA... BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY EVENING. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
NEAR THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 21Z SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING WHEN A WEAK CAP
ERODES. INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WIND SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANYTHING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT KICKER TO PUSH IT OUT.
THE GFS IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDING ONTO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS COULD BRING SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. PRECIP DEFICITS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 2 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL...DESPITE THE GENEROUS RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND. HAVE COORDINATED
WITH MBRFC ON POTENTIAL RIVER FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...CONVECTIVE THREAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD STILL A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE SOUTH OF I80 EARLY
MONDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THE ORIGINAL
STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN US EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD
AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE...COMBINED
WITH TYPICAL LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE THROUGH AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT MID WEEK...BUT WAY TO FAR OUT
TO FIGURE OUT ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 25 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 172012
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER INITIALLY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS SECOND WAVE COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHEASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN IA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WILL BE DRY...BUT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP
BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWEST ACROSS WESTERN  IOWA...AND A BIT HIGHER IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA... BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY EVENING. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
NEAR THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 21Z SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING WHEN A WEAK CAP
ERODES. INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WIND SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANYTHING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT KICKER TO PUSH IT OUT.
THE GFS IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDING ONTO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS COULD BRING SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. PRECIP DEFICITS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 2 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL...DESPITE THE GENEROUS RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND. HAVE COORDINATED
WITH MBRFC ON POTENTIAL RIVER FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...CONVECTIVE THREAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD STILL A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE SOUTH OF I80 EARLY
MONDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THE ORIGINAL
STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN US EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD
AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE...COMBINED
WITH TYPICAL LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE THROUGH AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT MID WEEK...BUT WAY TO FAR OUT
TO FIGURE OUT ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...AS MVFR
STRATUS BANK CLEARS OUT OF KOMA/KLNK BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15G25KT BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES





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