000
FXUS63 KOAX 200832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SFC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MT THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION.

00Z NAM DID NOT PERFORM WELL REGARDING ITS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING SO AM NOT PUTTING MUCH WEIGHT
INTO THIS SOLUTION IN THE NEAR TERM. LATEST RAP/HRRR HAVE BEEN
LATCHING ONTO CONVECTION INITIATING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS WHERE ACCAS FIELD RESIDES. IF THIS ACTIVITY GETS
GOING IT COULD LIKELY SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST
IOWA AS SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST. IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP...IT COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEB AND TO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIALLY SPREADING EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND COULD SPREAD SOUTH- SOUTHEAST INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA
SUSTAINED BY INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S BY SATURDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...THE SFC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND DEPENDING ON CAP
STRENGTH...COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

KERN

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF KANSAS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 200419
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1119 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF KANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 12Z FEATURED A FAIRLY STRONG 300 MB JET
SEGMENT OF AROUND 95 KNOTS PUNCHING DOWN TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WAS JUST OFFSHORE FROM OREGON. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 120 METERS WERE NOTED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
FAR WESTERN US. WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST BACK INTO ALASKA. A THERMAL RIDGE AT
700 MB EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MONTANA. AT 850 MB
A BAND OF DEWPOINTS OF 10 C OR HIGHER EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS UP
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

AS CAN BE TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS
NOT OVERLY CLEAR. SEVERAL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING
ON TWO AREAS FOR WEAK STORMS THIS EVENING...ONE IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND ONE IN THE NORTHWEST. SO...TRIED TO
ADJUST POPS TOWARD THAT THINKING. ALSO...SOME ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM MODEL SUGGEST. THIS GENERAL
MODEL BLEND SCENARIO WAS KEPT INTO THURSDAY. KEPT POPS 20-35 PERCENT
IN THE MORNING THEN DECREASED CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER... HIGHS COULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW...WENT WITH 87-
90 IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND 85-87 EAST. HIGHS IN WESTERN IOWA
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

MILLER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AND CONFIDENCE ON ANY GIVEN MODEL IS NOT HIGH. WILL TEND TO GO WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...GIVING THE ECMWF AND GENERAL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN RECOGNITION THE MOST WEIGHT.

SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON 12Z NAM OUTPUT. THAT MODEL DEVELOPED STORMS OVER THE
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH PROGESS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IF
THEY DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. PATTERN STARTS TO TURN A
BIT WARMER FRIDAY...WHICH MAY TEND TO FORCE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR AREA DUE TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

WE SHOULD SEE A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A REX
BLOCK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUR AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW...AND TIMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OUT ALONG
140 DEGS WEST LONGITUDE...WHICH THEN SHOULD HELP LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. IF THAT SCENARIO DOES VERIFY...IT WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO A
HOTTER AND DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA.

MILLER

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT

000
FXUS63 KOAX 200055
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
755 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRIED TO DEVELOP AROUND OFK JUST PRIOR
TO ISSUANCE BUT HAVE SINCE MOVED NORTH AND DISSIPATED. POP UP
STORMS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT WEAK FORCING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 12Z FEATURED A FAIRLY STRONG 300 MB JET
SEGMENT OF AROUND 95 KNOTS PUNCHING DOWN TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WAS JUST OFFSHORE FROM OREGON. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 120 METERS WERE NOTED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
FAR WESTERN US. WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST BACK INTO ALASKA. A THERMAL RIDGE AT
700 MB EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MONTANA. AT 850 MB
A BAND OF DEWPOINTS OF 10 C OR HIGHER EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS UP
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

AS CAN BE TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS
NOT OVERLY CLEAR. SEVERAL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING
ON TWO AREAS FOR WEAK STORMS THIS EVENING...ONE IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND ONE IN THE NORTHWEST. SO...TRIED TO
ADJUST POPS TOWARD THAT THINKING. ALSO...SOME ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM MODEL SUGGEST. THIS GENERAL
MODEL BLEND SCENARIO WAS KEPT INTO THURSDAY. KEPT POPS 20-35 PERCENT
IN THE MORNING THEN DECREASED CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER... HIGHS COULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW...WENT WITH 87-
90 IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND 85-87 EAST. HIGHS IN WESTERN IOWA
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

MILLER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AND CONFIDENCE ON ANY GIVEN MODEL IS NOT HIGH. WILL TEND TO GO WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...GIVING THE ECMWF AND GENERAL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN RECOGNITION THE MOST WEIGHT.

SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON 12Z NAM OUTPUT. THAT MODEL DEVELOPED STORMS OVER THE
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH PROGESS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IF
THEY DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. PATTERN STARTS TO TURN A
BIT WARMER FRIDAY...WHICH MAY TEND TO FORCE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR AREA DUE TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

WE SHOULD SEE A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A REX
BLOCK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUR AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW...AND TIMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OUT ALONG
140 DEGS WEST LONGITUDE...WHICH THEN SHOULD HELP LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. IF THAT SCENARIO DOES VERIFY...IT WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO A
HOTTER AND DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA.

MILLER

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT

000
FXUS63 KOAX 192005
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 12Z FEATURED A FAIRLY STRONG 300 MB JET
SEGMENT OF AROUND 95 KNOTS PUNCHING DOWN TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WAS JUST OFFSHORE FROM OREGON. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 120 METERS WERE NOTED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
FAR WESTERN US. WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST BACK INTO ALASKA. A THERMAL RIDGE AT
700 MB EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MONTANA. AT 850 MB
A BAND OF DEWPOINTS OF 10 C OR HIGHER EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS UP
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

AS CAN BE TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS
NOT OVERLY CLEAR. SEVERAL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING
ON TWO AREAS FOR WEAK STORMS THIS EVENING...ONE IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND ONE IN THE NORTHWEST. SO...TRIED TO
ADJUST POPS TOWARD THAT THINKING. ALSO...SOME ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM MODEL SUGGEST. THIS GENERAL
MODEL BLEND SCENARIO WAS KEPT INTO THURSDAY. KEPT POPS 20-35 PERCENT
IN THE MORNING THEN DECREASED CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER... HIGHS COULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW...WENT WITH 87-
90 IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND 85-87 EAST. HIGHS IN WESTERN IOWA
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

MILLER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AND CONFIDENCE ON ANY GIVEN MODEL IS NOT HIGH. WILL TEND TO GO WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND...GIVING THE ECMWF AND GENERAL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN RECOGNITION THE MOST WEIGHT.

SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON 12Z NAM OUTPUT. THAT MODEL DEVELOPED STORMS OVER THE
DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH PROGESS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IF
THEY DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. PATTERN STARTS TO TURN A
BIT WARMER FRIDAY...WHICH MAY TEND TO FORCE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR AREA DUE TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

WE SHOULD SEE A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A REX
BLOCK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUR AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW...AND TIMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OUT ALONG
140 DEGS WEST LONGITUDE...WHICH THEN SHOULD HELP LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. IF THAT SCENARIO DOES VERIFY...IT WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO A
HOTTER AND DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

THESE TYPICAL MID JUNE PATTERNS GENERALLY CONSIST OF VFR CONDITIONS
MOST OF THE TIME EXCEPT FOR DURING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY THE CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT WHEN AND WHERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IS RATHER LOW...AND THIS PATTERN IS NO EXCEPTION.
THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS THAT POINT TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD HAVE A
GREATER IMPACT ON THE KOFK TAF. HOWEVER GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...
HAVE LEFT TRW OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLOSELY BE
MONITORING RADAR FOR TRENDS.

NIETFELD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 191750
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1250 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

THESE TYPICAL MID JUNE PATTERNS GENERALLY CONSIST OF VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME EXCEPT FOR DURING PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UNFORTUNATELY THE CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT WHEN
AND WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IS RATHER LOW...AND THIS PATTERN IS
NO EXCEPTION. THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS THAT POINT TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME...WHICH
WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE KOFK TAF. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY... HAVE LEFT TRW OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORING RADAR FOR TRENDS.


NIETFELD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IT REALLY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN ANY PERIOD IN THAT TIME THAT SHOULD NOT WARRANT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. THEREFORE...WE WILL BE CARRYING A SMALL POP
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING/LOCATION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED RATHER POORLY ON
WEAK CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS IS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN BETWEEN THE MAIN FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR MOSIAC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND
WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE ANOTHER MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND WEAKENS. LATEST RAP BRINGS
A HINT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AM GOING TO TWEEK POPS ACCORDINGLY. BROAD SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...FEEL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A CHANCE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND COULD SUSTAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A POP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA HOWEVER A QUITE STOUT CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY
PROHIBIT THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF TSTMS. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR
NORTH IN THE SWODY2 FOR ANY MCS ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NRN
PLAINS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A VEERING SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET AND SO HAVE HIGHER POPS GOING IN OUR NORTH.

THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...THE
SFC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND BE THE POTENTIAL FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 191108
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013


.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE APPARENT MINIMAL COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
W/RESPECT TO TIMING...NO MENTION WAS MADE AT TAFS EXPECT AT KOFK
LATE TONIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL JET MAY HAVE MORE SUCCESS IN BRINGING
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TOWARD THAT AREA. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CHERMOK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IT REALLY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN ANY PERIOD IN THAT TIME THAT SHOULD NOT WARRANT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. THEREFORE...WE WILL BE CARRYING A SMALL POP
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING/LOCATION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED RATHER POORLY ON
WEAK CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS IS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN BETWEEN THE MAIN FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR MOSIAC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND
WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE ANOTHER MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND WEAKENS. LATEST RAP BRINGS
A HINT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AM GOING TO TWEEK POPS ACCORDINGLY. BROAD SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...FEEL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A CHANCE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND COULD SUSTAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A POP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA HOWEVER A QUITE STOUT CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY
PROHIBIT THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF TSTMS. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR
NORTH IN THE SWODY2 FOR ANY MCS ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NRN
PLAINS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A VEERING SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET AND SO HAVE HIGHER POPS GOING IN OUR NORTH.

THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...THE
SFC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND BE THE POTENTIAL FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 190837
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IT REALLY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN ANY PERIOD IN THAT TIME THAT SHOULD NOT WARRANT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. THEREFORE...WE WILL BE CARRYING A SMALL POP
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING/LOCATION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED RATHER POORLY ON
WEAK CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS IS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN BETWEEN THE MAIN FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR MOSIAC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND
WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE ANOTHER MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND WEAKENS. LATEST RAP BRINGS
A HINT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AM GOING TO TWEEK POPS ACCORDINGLY. BROAD SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...FEEL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A CHANCE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND COULD SUSTAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A POP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA HOWEVER A QUITE STOUT CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY
PROHIBIT THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF TSTMS. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR
NORTH IN THE SWODY2 FOR ANY MCS ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NRN
PLAINS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A VEERING SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET AND SO HAVE HIGHER POPS GOING IN OUR NORTH.

THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...THE
SFC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND BE THE POTENTIAL FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

KERN

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH LEVEL CIGS
ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. SOME CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER
AFTER 18Z BUT NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 190454
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH LEVEL CIGS
ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. SOME CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER
AFTER 18Z BUT NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDER HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE AREA.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WITH
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WI/IA THAT HELPED GENERATE MORNING ACTIVITY...AS
WELL AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN NEB/EASTERN CO...AND
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH CREATING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 60M ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST.  UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM EASTERN IA
INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH JET SEGMENTS COMING ASHORE IN OR AND IN
SOUTHERN CA.  HIGHER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE LOCATED FROM CO/WY
WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES.  HIGH PRESSURE AT 850MB WAS CENTERED IN
KS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 20S C AS FAR EAST AS KLBF...AND
WITH 8C+ MOISTURE RETURNING UP TO SOUTHERN NEB/SOUTHERN IA.  SURFACE
HIGH AT 18Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTWHEST IA...WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NEB.  AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS STILL
FESTERING JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/NEB BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH WHACK-A-MOLE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.  MODELS STILL DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  NAM/4KM WRF KEEP THE
AREA DRY TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION AFTER 00Z THURSDAY THAT GROWS UPSCALE IN CENTRAL IA.  GFS
HAS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BROADER
SWATH TO THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.  ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG THE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH DIES QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
CONVECTION ALONG THE RIVER AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING.  SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP...RANGING FROM THE DRIER SIDE TO WETTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO WETTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.  OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT LEANED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS
COMPROMISE. KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DRY AS HEIGHT
RISES MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
APPROACHES AND CHANCES IN THE EVENING FOR POSSIBLE UPSCALE
GROWTH...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH/CHANCE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON THURSDAY MORNING EAST
OF THE RIVER. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT
THINK THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THAT ACTIVITY MOVES OUT.  COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SD TO SKIRT THE
NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UP THERE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE PLAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SCENARIO...WHICH KEEPS THE CWA CAPPED DURING THE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTTIME CONVECTION.  THINK THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD
BE ON SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE
CWA AND PROVIDES SOME CONVERGENCE...WHILE A SHORTWAVE SEEMS LIKELY
TO EJECT ACROSS THE CWA.  BY MONDAY...RISK IS TOO LOW FOR STORMS
WITH ANY KIND OF DIAGNOSABLE COVERAGE TO PUT IN POPS AT THIS TIME.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE EXTENDED TO GET
AWAY FROM THE TENDENCY FOR GUIDANCE TO STEER TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...AS
MEX GUIDANCE REMAINS IN THE 90S IN MOST PLACES...AND GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY IN THE 20S AND WARMING
TO THE MID 20S C LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MAYES

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT

000
FXUS63 KOAX 190004
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
704 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE LOCATED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES AT 00Z WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF LEE SIDE TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDER HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE AREA.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WITH
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WI/IA THAT HELPED GENERATE MORNING ACTIVITY...AS
WELL AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN NEB/EASTERN CO...AND
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH CREATING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 60M ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST.  UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM EASTERN IA
INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH JET SEGMENTS COMING ASHORE IN OR AND IN
SOUTHERN CA.  HIGHER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE LOCATED FROM CO/WY
WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES.  HIGH PRESSURE AT 850MB WAS CENTERED IN
KS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 20S C AS FAR EAST AS KLBF...AND
WITH 8C+ MOISTURE RETURNING UP TO SOUTHERN NEB/SOUTHERN IA.  SURFACE
HIGH AT 18Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTWHEST IA...WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NEB.  AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS STILL
FESTERING JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/NEB BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH WHACK-A-MOLE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.  MODELS STILL DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  NAM/4KM WRF KEEP THE
AREA DRY TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION AFTER 00Z THURSDAY THAT GROWS UPSCALE IN CENTRAL IA.  GFS
HAS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BROADER
SWATH TO THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.  ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG THE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH DIES QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
CONVECTION ALONG THE RIVER AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING.  SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP...RANGING FROM THE DRIER SIDE TO WETTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO WETTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.  OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT LEANED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS
COMPROMISE. KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DRY AS HEIGHT
RISES MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
APPROACHES AND CHANCES IN THE EVENING FOR POSSIBLE UPSCALE
GROWTH...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH/CHANCE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON THURSDAY MORNING EAST
OF THE RIVER. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT
THINK THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THAT ACTIVITY MOVES OUT.  COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SD TO SKIRT THE
NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UP THERE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE PLAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SCENARIO...WHICH KEEPS THE CWA CAPPED DURING THE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTTIME CONVECTION.  THINK THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD
BE ON SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE
CWA AND PROVIDES SOME CONVERGENCE...WHILE A SHORTWAVE SEEMS LIKELY
TO EJECT ACROSS THE CWA.  BY MONDAY...RISK IS TOO LOW FOR STORMS
WITH ANY KIND OF DIAGNOSABLE COVERAGE TO PUT IN POPS AT THIS TIME.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE EXTENDED TO GET
AWAY FROM THE TENDENCY FOR GUIDANCE TO STEER TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...AS
MEX GUIDANCE REMAINS IN THE 90S IN MOST PLACES...AND GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY IN THE 20S AND WARMING
TO THE MID 20S C LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MAYES

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT

000
FXUS63 KOAX 181951
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDER HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE AREA.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WITH
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WI/IA THAT HELPED GENERATE MORNING ACTIVITY...AS
WELL AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN NEB/EASTERN CO...AND
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH CREATING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 60M ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST.  UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM EASTERN IA
INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH JET SEGMENTS COMING ASHORE IN OR AND IN
SOUTHERN CA.  HIGHER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE LOCATED FROM CO/WY
WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES.  HIGH PRESSURE AT 850MB WAS CENTERED IN
KS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 20S C AS FAR EAST AS KLBF...AND
WITH 8C+ MOISTURE RETURNING UP TO SOUTHERN NEB/SOUTHERN IA.  SURFACE
HIGH AT 18Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTWHEST IA...WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NEB.  AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS STILL
FESTERING JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/NEB BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH WHACK-A-MOLE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.  MODELS STILL DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  NAM/4KM WRF KEEP THE
AREA DRY TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION AFTER 00Z THURSDAY THAT GROWS UPSCALE IN CENTRAL IA.  GFS
HAS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BROADER
SWATH TO THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.  ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG THE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH DIES QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
CONVECTION ALONG THE RIVER AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING.  SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP...RANGING FROM THE DRIER SIDE TO WETTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO WETTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.  OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT LEANED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS
COMPROMISE. KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DRY AS HEIGHT
RISES MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
APPROACHES AND CHANCES IN THE EVENING FOR POSSIBLE UPSCALE
GROWTH...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH/CHANCE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON THURSDAY MORNING EAST
OF THE RIVER. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT
THINK THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THAT ACTIVITY MOVES OUT.  COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SD TO SKIRT THE
NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UP THERE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE PLAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SCENARIO...WHICH KEEPS THE CWA CAPPED DURING THE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTTIME CONVECTION.  THINK THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD
BE ON SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE
CWA AND PROVIDES SOME CONVERGENCE...WHILE A SHORTWAVE SEEMS LIKELY
TO EJECT ACROSS THE CWA.  BY MONDAY...RISK IS TOO LOW FOR STORMS
WITH ANY KIND OF DIAGNOSABLE COVERAGE TO PUT IN POPS AT THIS TIME.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE EXTENDED TO GET
AWAY FROM THE TENDENCY FOR GUIDANCE TO STEER TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...AS
MEX GUIDANCE REMAINS IN THE 90S IN MOST PLACES...AND GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY IN THE 20S AND WARMING
TO THE MID 20S C LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MAYES

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

PCPN CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS OF JUST AFTER NOON NEAR
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTN.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN SOME 4-6
MILE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MILLER


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 181715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

PCPN CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS OF JUST AFTER NOON NEAR
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTN.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN SOME 4-6
MILE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

UPDATE...

SHRA AND TSRA WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO AT
LEAST EARLY AFTN AND POSSIBLY MID AFTN. THIS IS BEING AIDED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB OVER
CENTRAL IOWA. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT DOWN TO MAINLY ALONG THE KS
AND MO BORDERS BY 19Z OR 21Z. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY
CONDITION AND HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL. ZFP AND GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED.

MILLER

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO AND
INTO WESTERN ALBERTA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

WEAK AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST MUCH
PAST THE MORNING AS THE LIFT FROM THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES ONSHORE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
OUR AREA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING AND SET OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE MAY SPREAD EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST. IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW FAR EAST THEY WILL SPREAD
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING GIVEN THE STABLE AIRMASS THEY WILL BE
MOVING INTO. IN ANY CASE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL WARRANT POPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS TSTMS SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING OCCURS IN THE WEST. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20`S C WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 90S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS THE SFC FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. VERY WARM MID
LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING/SPREADING
INTO THE CWA AND SO HAVE LEFT THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
DRY. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AND SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 181442 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
942 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...

SHRA AND TSRA WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO AT
LEAST EARLY AFTN AND POSSIBLY MID AFTN. THIS IS BEING AIDED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB OVER
CENTRAL IOWA. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT DOWN TO MAINLY ALONG THE KS
AND MO BORDERS BY 19Z OR 21Z. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY
CONDITION AND HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL. ZFP AND GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED.

MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE OR
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES BY 14Z OR SO LEAVING MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS IN THEIR WAKE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD
AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY COULD
APPROACH KOFK LATE TONIGHT.

CHERMOK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO AND
INTO WESTERN ALBERTA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

WEAK AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST MUCH
PAST THE MORNING AS THE LIFT FROM THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES ONSHORE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
OUR AREA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING AND SET OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE MAY SPREAD EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST. IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW FAR EAST THEY WILL SPREAD
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING GIVEN THE STABLE AIRMASS THEY WILL BE
MOVING INTO. IN ANY CASE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL WARRANT POPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS TSTMS SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING OCCURS IN THE WEST. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20`S C WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 90S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS THE SFC FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. VERY WARM MID
LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING/SPREADING
INTO THE CWA AND SO HAVE LEFT THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
DRY. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AND SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 181126
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE OR
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES BY 14Z OR SO LEAVING MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS IN THEIR WAKE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD
AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY COULD
APPROACH KOFK LATE TONIGHT.

CHERMOK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO AND
INTO WESTERN ALBERTA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

WEAK AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST MUCH
PAST THE MORNING AS THE LIFT FROM THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES ONSHORE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
OUR AREA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING AND SET OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE MAY SPREAD EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST. IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW FAR EAST THEY WILL SPREAD
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING GIVEN THE STABLE AIRMASS THEY WILL BE
MOVING INTO. IN ANY CASE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL WARRANT POPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS TSTMS SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING OCCURS IN THE WEST. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20`S C WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 90S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS THE SFC FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. VERY WARM MID
LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING/SPREADING
INTO THE CWA AND SO HAVE LEFT THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
DRY. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AND SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 180841
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO AND
INTO WESTERN ALBERTA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

WEAK AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST MUCH
PAST THE MORNING AS THE LIFT FROM THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES ONSHORE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
OUR AREA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS EVENING AND SET OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE MAY SPREAD EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST. IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW FAR EAST THEY WILL SPREAD
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING GIVEN THE STABLE AIRMASS THEY WILL BE
MOVING INTO. IN ANY CASE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL WARRANT POPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS TSTMS SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING OCCURS IN THE WEST. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20`S C WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 90S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS THE SFC FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. VERY WARM MID
LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING/SPREADING
INTO THE CWA AND SO HAVE LEFT THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
DRY. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AND SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI BY 00Z. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED IN FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 180432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI BY 00Z. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED IN FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE CWA.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
SHORTWAVE TO TEH SOUTH OVER MO/KS/OK/TX...WITH ASSOCIATED 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 30M.  SPLIT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL JET IN THE WESTERN
US CONVERGED OVER IA...WITH STRONGER JET ENERGY FROM IA TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.  HIGHER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE
FOCUSED WELL WEST...FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES.
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
850MB...WITH AN OUTLIER OF 12C DEWPOINT AT KTOP WHILE 8C+ DEWPOINTS
OTHERWISE WERE FOCUSED FROM TX TO AR/TN.  850MB THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM NV/AZ NORTHWARD TO WA/OR/ID.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 19Z
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ND THROUGH SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB...THEN ON
TO CENTRAL KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY BENIGN
WEATHER IN THE INTERIM.  TSRA ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WESTERN NEB AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE THE CWA.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO HINT AT A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING ACROSS IA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LIFT AND PRECIP OVER
NORTHEAST NEB.  HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION JUST BRIEFLY
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE THINKING THAT HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE WOULD
RETURN QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND QUASH THE ACTIVITY.  REMAINDER OF
TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET...UNLESS THAT ACTIVITY FESTERS INTO THE
MORNING LONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST IN WESTERN/NORTHWEST CWA.
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING.

SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS SD/NEB ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...THINK CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...AND HAVE PLAYED
TOWARD LESS MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PEAK OF ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEB INTO
WESTERN IA...WITH STORMS EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL JET VEERS SLIGHTLY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET RETREATING TO THE
WEST...POST- CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION...AND INCREASING 700MB
TEMPS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THURSDAY DAYTIME. WITH LESS
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ALSO HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH GRIDS ARE STILL COOLER THAN MEX.

MAYES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING
THIS PERIOD LEADING TO HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MID 20S FOR FRI AND SAT AND THIS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. WITH DEW POINTS ALSO
ON THE RISE THIS WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100. THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WRN US TROUGH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR FA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT LEAVING THE CWA
DRY. SOME NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NE NEB ON FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...BUT 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OF +16 SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TOO FAR
SOUTH. AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER ON SUN INTO MON WE MAY SEE
THIS BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE FA ALLOWING FOR SOME CHANCE OF
CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME CHC POPS.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT

000
FXUS63 KOAX 180238
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
938 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
CEILINGS SHOULD BE ABOVE 8000 FEET. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THEN TURN TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

MILLER

&&

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME
-SHRA OR -TSRA TUESDAY MORNING BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT
FROM NAM AND RAP. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FCST.

MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE CWA.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
SHORTWAVE TO TEH SOUTH OVER MO/KS/OK/TX...WITH ASSOCIATED 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 30M.  SPLIT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL JET IN THE WESTERN
US CONVERGED OVER IA...WITH STRONGER JET ENERGY FROM IA TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.  HIGHER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE
FOCUSED WELL WEST...FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES.
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
850MB...WITH AN OUTLIER OF 12C DEWPOINT AT KTOP WHILE 8C+ DEWPOINTS
OTHERWISE WERE FOCUSED FROM TX TO AR/TN.  850MB THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM NV/AZ NORTHWARD TO WA/OR/ID.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 19Z
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ND THROUGH SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB...THEN ON
TO CENTRAL KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY BENIGN
WEATHER IN THE INTERIM.  TSRA ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WESTERN NEB AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE THE CWA.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO HINT AT A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING ACROSS IA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LIFT AND PRECIP OVER
NORTHEAST NEB.  HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION JUST BRIEFLY
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE THINKING THAT HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE WOULD
RETURN QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND QUASH THE ACTIVITY.  REMAINDER OF
TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET...UNLESS THAT ACTIVITY FESTERS INTO THE
MORNING LONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST IN WESTERN/NORTHWEST CWA.
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING.

SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS SD/NEB ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...THINK CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...AND HAVE PLAYED
TOWARD LESS MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PEAK OF ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEB INTO
WESTERN IA...WITH STORMS EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL JET VEERS SLIGHTLY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET RETREATING TO THE
WEST...POST- CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION...AND INCREASING 700MB
TEMPS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THURSDAY DAYTIME. WITH LESS
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ALSO HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH GRIDS ARE STILL COOLER THAN MEX.

MAYES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING
THIS PERIOD LEADING TO HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MID 20S FOR FRI AND SAT AND THIS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. WITH DEW POINTS ALSO
ON THE RISE THIS WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100. THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WRN US TROUGH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR FA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT LEAVING THE CWA
DRY. SOME NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NE NEB ON FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...BUT 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OF +16 SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TOO FAR
SOUTH. AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER ON SUN INTO MON WE MAY SEE
THIS BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE FA ALLOWING FOR SOME CHANCE OF
CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME CHC POPS.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 172037
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE CWA.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
SHORTWAVE TO TEH SOUTH OVER MO/KS/OK/TX...WITH ASSOCIATED 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 30M.  SPLIT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL JET IN THE WESTERN
US CONVERGED OVER IA...WITH STRONGER JET ENERGY FROM IA TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.  HIGHER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE
FOCUSED WELL WEST...FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES.
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
850MB...WITH AN OUTLIER OF 12C DEWPOINT AT KTOP WHILE 8C+ DEWPOINTS
OTHERWISE WERE FOCUSED FROM TX TO AR/TN.  850MB THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM NV/AZ NORTHWARD TO WA/OR/ID.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 19Z
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ND THROUGH SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB...THEN ON
TO CENTRAL KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY BENIGN
WEATHER IN THE INTERIM.  TSRA ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WESTERN NEB AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE THE CWA.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO HINT AT A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING ACROSS IA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LIFT AND PRECIP OVER
NORTHEAST NEB.  HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION JUST BRIEFLY
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE THINKING THAT HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE WOULD
RETURN QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND QUASH THE ACTIVITY.  REMAINDER OF
TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET...UNLESS THAT ACTIVITY FESTERS INTO THE
MORNING LONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST IN WESTERN/NORTHWEST CWA.
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING.

SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS SD/NEB ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...THINK CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...AND HAVE PLAYED
TOWARD LESS MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PEAK OF ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEB INTO
WESTERN IA...WITH STORMS EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL JET VEERS SLIGHTLY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET RETREATING TO THE
WEST...POST- CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION...AND INCREASING 700MB
TEMPS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THURSDAY DAYTIME. WITH LESS
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ALSO HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH GRIDS ARE STILL COOLER THAN MEX.

MAYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING
THIS PERIOD LEADING TO HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MID 20S FOR FRI AND SAT AND THIS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. WITH DEW POINTS ALSO
ON THE RISE THIS WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100. THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WRN US TROUGH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR FA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT LEAVING THE CWA
DRY. SOME NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NE NEB ON FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...BUT 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OF +16 SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TOO FAR
SOUTH. AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER ON SUN INTO MON WE MAY SEE
THIS BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE FA ALLOWING FOR SOME CHANCE OF
CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME CHC POPS.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN TURNING EAST
ON TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 171641
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS TODAY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

12Z KOAX RAOB INDICATED A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS COVERED A GOOD
PART OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING HAD A H85 DEW
POINT OF 1 C AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE
MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON LITTLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
THUS WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE DRY H85 AIR WE ALSO
LOWERED DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WENT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST APPEAR ON TRACK.

NEW GRIDS AND ZFP ALREADY SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN TURNING EAST
ON TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A STRONG LOW REMAINS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A
VERY SUBTLE BOUNDARY RESIDES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH DRIER LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS IN OUR NORTH.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER WEAK BULK LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON MAY SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE SMALL POPS GENERALLY I-80 AND SOUTH.

A FEW DRY PERIODS ARE EXPECTED WHILE UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST
STRENGTHENS AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES ONSHORE. A SPOTTY
CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS SPREADS EAST ATOP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH MID WEEK...THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 90S FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. A FEW NOCTURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS STILL LOOK QUITE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE
ACTIVE WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A SFC BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NOCTURNAL TSTMS
CHANCES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$