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000
FXUS63 KOAX 202002
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

MILD AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HGTS REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. DID TRIM BACK LOWS TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW YET
MINIMAL OR EVEN NERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN TOWARD LOWER MO
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A BIT BREEZIER TUESDAY...READINGS REMAIN MILD
WITH HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...POSSIBLY A DEG OR TWO COOLER EAST
DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SERLY FLOW OFF OF A RETREATING SFC HIGH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ON THIS MORNING U.A. FROM SRN MO/OK AREA
SOUTHWARD...H85 DWPTS AT OR > 10 DEG C AND SFC DWPTS IN UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S F...WILL BE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
ENTERING W COAST MIDDAY TODAY PROGRESSES EWD. BESIDES LIKELY
PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS TO CNTRL AND WRN ZONES BY WED MORNING...H85
THETA E ADVECTION IS QUITE STRONG AND COULD GENERATE ISOLD TSTMS
LATE TUE NIGHT AS WELL. INTRODUCED SLGT CHANCE WCNTRL/NWRN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. JUST HOW QUICKLY TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PLAINS STILL
SLIGHTLY IN DOUBT WITH CANADIAN LAGGING OTHER MODELS. GENERALLY
LEANED TOWARD MAJORITY...NAM/GFS AND ECMWF...ALTHOUGH WITH ENERGY
LIFTING/REFORMING NEAR U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER KEPT POPS WEST OF
ECENTRAL NEBR/MOST OF WRN IA...INCLUDING OMAHA METRO YET DURING
THE DAY WED. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED...ISOLD TSTM MENTION
WAS MAINTAINED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE ACTIVITY A BIT HIGHER THAN
ISOLD IF TRENDS PERSIST. HOWEVER...UPPED MOST POPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WED NGT. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY PRECIP AS WELL...PREV MAX TEMP FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD WED...FALLING MOSTLY BETWEEN COOLER NAM AND WARMER MAV.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MILD AND COULD SEE THE NEED TO ADJUST
UPWARD IF/WHEN IT BECOMES APPARENT SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE AFTN
SUNSHINE.

WITH NAM/GFS/ECMWF PROGRESSIVE WITH SRN PART OF TROUGH CROSSING
FORECAST AREA...APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP COULD ALSO MOVE EAST OF
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BY THU MORNING. STARTED MAKING NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS...I.E. DROPPING POPS NW AND LOWERING THEM EAST. ALSO
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS AS COOL ADVECTION BEHIND TROUGH IS MINIMAL AND
WARM ADVECTION ALREADY COMMENCES BY THU AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXTENDED STARTS DRY AND MILD ALTHOUGH 12Z ECMWF SLIPS A WEAK COOL
FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST WILL INCLUDE GENERALLY
70S FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST ECMWF WOULD KNOCK
NRN AREAS INTO UPPER 60S SAT. ALSO A CASE COULD BE MADE BY 12Z
ECMWF/GFS FOR SOME MAX TEMPS REACHING 80 OR BETTER SUNDAY IF NEXT
TROUGH CAN APPROACH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PROVIDE INCREASING SWRLY
FLOW TO AREA.

A DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED BY DAY 7 BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WHICH COULD
LIKELY SPELL A DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BY THAT TIME AND
BEYOND. HOWEVER...THEY EITHER SUPPORTED POPS ACROSS ERN
ZONES...THE FORMER...OR MAINLY DRY WITH THE LATTER. THUS THIS
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS IA ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REFLECTING LAST EVENINGS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 201712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEAR AND MILD
WEATHER LEADING UP TO IT.

WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
SPILLING IN BEHIND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THE DAY TODAY...WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT. THOSE
WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE ROCKIES.

THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO MID
AMERICA...WITH RIBBON OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RH AND PRESSURE DEFICIT
PROGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN OR SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAXIMUM MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO AT
LEAST AM EXPECTING A CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AMOUNT AND
DEPTH OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON.

CORE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

DEEP MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN SWINGING
BULK OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEYOND...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO FILL IN BEHIND AND REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO A RETURN TO OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE
LOOKS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 201712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEAR AND MILD
WEATHER LEADING UP TO IT.

WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
SPILLING IN BEHIND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THE DAY TODAY...WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT. THOSE
WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE ROCKIES.

THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO MID
AMERICA...WITH RIBBON OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RH AND PRESSURE DEFICIT
PROGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN OR SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAXIMUM MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO AT
LEAST AM EXPECTING A CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AMOUNT AND
DEPTH OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON.

CORE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

DEEP MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN SWINGING
BULK OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEYOND...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO FILL IN BEHIND AND REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO A RETURN TO OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE
LOOKS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 201202
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
702 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEAR AND MILD
WEATHER LEADING UP TO IT.

WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
SPILLING IN BEHIND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THE DAY TODAY...WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT. THOSE
WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE ROCKIES.

THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO MID
AMERICA...WITH RIBBON OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RH AND PRESSURE DEFICIT
PROGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN OR SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAXIMUM MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO AT
LEAST AM EXPECTING A CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AMOUNT AND
DEPTH OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON.

CORE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

DEEP MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN SWINGING
BULK OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEYOND...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO FILL IN BEHIND AND REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO A RETURN TO OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE
LOOKS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 201202
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
702 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEAR AND MILD
WEATHER LEADING UP TO IT.

WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
SPILLING IN BEHIND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THE DAY TODAY...WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT. THOSE
WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE ROCKIES.

THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO MID
AMERICA...WITH RIBBON OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RH AND PRESSURE DEFICIT
PROGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN OR SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAXIMUM MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO AT
LEAST AM EXPECTING A CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AMOUNT AND
DEPTH OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON.

CORE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

DEEP MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN SWINGING
BULK OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEYOND...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO FILL IN BEHIND AND REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO A RETURN TO OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE
LOOKS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 200831
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEAR AND MILD
WEATHER LEADING UP TO IT.

WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
SPILLING IN BEHIND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THE DAY TODAY...WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT. THOSE
WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE ROCKIES.

THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO MID
AMERICA...WITH RIBBON OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RH AND PRESSURE DEFICIT
PROGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN OR SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAXIMUM MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO AT
LEAST AM EXPECTING A CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AMOUNT AND
DEPTH OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON.

CORE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

DEEP MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN SWINGING
BULK OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEYOND...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO FILL IN BEHIND AND REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO A RETURN TO OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE
LOOKS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 200831
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEAR AND MILD
WEATHER LEADING UP TO IT.

WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
SPILLING IN BEHIND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THE DAY TODAY...WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT. THOSE
WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE ROCKIES.

THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO MID
AMERICA...WITH RIBBON OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RH AND PRESSURE DEFICIT
PROGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN OR SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAXIMUM MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO AT
LEAST AM EXPECTING A CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AMOUNT AND
DEPTH OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON.

CORE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

DEEP MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN SWINGING
BULK OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEYOND...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO FILL IN BEHIND AND REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO A RETURN TO OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE
LOOKS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 200444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN
SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY
LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS
DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE.  850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 200444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN
SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY
LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS
DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE.  850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 192321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN
SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY
LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS
DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE.  850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 9Z AT
KOMA/KLNK...BUT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS. WINDS THEN GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 192321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN
SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY
LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS
DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE.  850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 9Z AT
KOMA/KLNK...BUT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS. WINDS THEN GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 192321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN
SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY
LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS
DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE.  850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 9Z AT
KOMA/KLNK...BUT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS. WINDS THEN GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 192321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN
SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY
LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS
DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE.  850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 9Z AT
KOMA/KLNK...BUT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS. WINDS THEN GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191954
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEH
PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NTOED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN
SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS ETENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY
LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS
DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE.  850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO GO FROM SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191954
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEH
PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NTOED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN
SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS ETENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY
LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS
DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE.  850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO GO FROM SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 191713
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER MIDDLE AMERICA SATURDAY...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OUR CWA. HOWEVER A
CHILLY AIRMASS OVERHEAD KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY AS THE HIGH WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN.

SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST UPPER FLOW WAS NOTED ON UPPER AIR CHARTS
SATURDAY EVENING. WITHIN THAT FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...
HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SATURDAY READINGS. SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH BULK OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY SHOOTING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RULE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SETTLE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND LINGERING THERE MOST OF
MONDAY. HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD REACH 70 MONDAY AS COOLING BEHIND
BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH AIRMASS SIMILAR TO MONDAY SUGGESTS
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL COME CLOSE TO MONDAY READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
FAIRLY SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILES.

INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AS TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMUM OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACH 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ALMOST 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MID OCTOBER VALUES. COMBINATION OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SPELL
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY FORECASTS LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD RETURN US BACK TO A DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO GO FROM SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 191713
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER MIDDLE AMERICA SATURDAY...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OUR CWA. HOWEVER A
CHILLY AIRMASS OVERHEAD KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY AS THE HIGH WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN.

SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST UPPER FLOW WAS NOTED ON UPPER AIR CHARTS
SATURDAY EVENING. WITHIN THAT FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...
HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SATURDAY READINGS. SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH BULK OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY SHOOTING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RULE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SETTLE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND LINGERING THERE MOST OF
MONDAY. HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD REACH 70 MONDAY AS COOLING BEHIND
BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH AIRMASS SIMILAR TO MONDAY SUGGESTS
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL COME CLOSE TO MONDAY READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
FAIRLY SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILES.

INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AS TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMUM OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACH 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ALMOST 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MID OCTOBER VALUES. COMBINATION OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SPELL
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY FORECASTS LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD RETURN US BACK TO A DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO GO FROM SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191201
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
701 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER MIDDLE AMERICA SATURDAY...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OUR CWA. HOWEVER A
CHILLY AIRMASS OVERHEAD KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY AS THE HIGH WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN.

SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST UPPER FLOW WAS NOTED ON UPPER AIR CHARTS
SATURDAY EVENING. WITHIN THAT FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...
HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SATURDAY READINGS. SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH BULK OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY SHOOTING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RULE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SETTLE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND LINGERING THERE MOST OF
MONDAY. HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD REACH 70 MONDAY AS COOLING BEHIND
BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH AIRMASS SIMILAR TO MONDAY SUGGESTS
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL COME CLOSE TO MONDAY READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
FAIRLY SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILES.

INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AS TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMUM OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACH 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ALMOST 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MID OCTOBER VALUES. COMBINATION OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SPELL
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY FORECASTS LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD RETURN US BACK TO A DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191201
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
701 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER MIDDLE AMERICA SATURDAY...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OUR CWA. HOWEVER A
CHILLY AIRMASS OVERHEAD KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY AS THE HIGH WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN.

SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST UPPER FLOW WAS NOTED ON UPPER AIR CHARTS
SATURDAY EVENING. WITHIN THAT FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...
HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SATURDAY READINGS. SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH BULK OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY SHOOTING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RULE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SETTLE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND LINGERING THERE MOST OF
MONDAY. HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD REACH 70 MONDAY AS COOLING BEHIND
BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH AIRMASS SIMILAR TO MONDAY SUGGESTS
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL COME CLOSE TO MONDAY READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
FAIRLY SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILES.

INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AS TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMUM OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACH 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ALMOST 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MID OCTOBER VALUES. COMBINATION OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SPELL
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY FORECASTS LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD RETURN US BACK TO A DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 190834
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER MIDDLE AMERICA SATURDAY...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OUR CWA. HOWEVER A
CHILLY AIRMASS OVERHEAD KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY AS THE HIGH WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN.

SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST UPPER FLOW WAS NOTED ON UPPER AIR CHARTS
SATURDAY EVENING. WITHIN THAT FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...
HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SATURDAY READINGS. SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH BULK OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY SHOOTING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RULE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SETTLE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND LINGERING THERE MOST OF
MONDAY. HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD REACH 70 MONDAY AS COOLING BEHIND
BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH AIRMASS SIMILAR TO MONDAY SUGGESTS
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL COME CLOSE TO MONDAY READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
FAIRLY SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILES.

INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AS TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMUM OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACH 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ALMOST 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MID OCTOBER VALUES. COMBINATION OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SPELL
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY FORECASTS LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD RETURN US BACK TO A DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...FROM
09-16Z AT KOFK...AND 11-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. OTHERWISE...JUST MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
INITIALLY...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS BY
16-17Z...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA NEAR KOFK BY 22Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 190423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD
TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN
SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL
APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF
OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...FROM
09-16Z AT KOFK...AND 11-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. OTHERWISE...JUST MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
INITIALLY...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS BY
16-17Z...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA NEAR KOFK BY 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 190423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD
TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN
SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL
APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF
OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...FROM
09-16Z AT KOFK...AND 11-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. OTHERWISE...JUST MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
INITIALLY...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS BY
16-17Z...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA NEAR KOFK BY 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 190423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD
TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN
SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL
APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF
OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...FROM
09-16Z AT KOFK...AND 11-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. OTHERWISE...JUST MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
INITIALLY...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS BY
16-17Z...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA NEAR KOFK BY 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 190423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD
TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN
SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL
APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF
OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...FROM
09-16Z AT KOFK...AND 11-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. OTHERWISE...JUST MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
INITIALLY...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS BY
16-17Z...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA NEAR KOFK BY 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 182321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD
TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN
SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL
APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF
OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP BY 09-11Z...THAN LINGERS THROUGH ABOUT 16-17Z. WINDS ABOUT
1500 FEET INCREASE TO 37 TO 43 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS INITIALLY...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 KNOTS BY 17Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 182321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD
TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN
SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL
APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF
OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP BY 09-11Z...THAN LINGERS THROUGH ABOUT 16-17Z. WINDS ABOUT
1500 FEET INCREASE TO 37 TO 43 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS INITIALLY...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 KNOTS BY 17Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 181910
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
210 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD
TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN
SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL
APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF
OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK...WITH INTERMITTENT COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT KOMA/KOFK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL CLOUDS
SCATTER. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10KT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON SUNDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 181910
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
210 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD
TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN
SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL
APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF
OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK...WITH INTERMITTENT COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT KOMA/KOFK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL CLOUDS
SCATTER. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10KT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON SUNDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 181735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS 1500-FT STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CLOUD COVER MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. DID ALLOW A RAPID DISSIPATION IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN AND MIXING SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEB MOVES EASTWARD. FOR NOW...HAVE
NOT LOWERED TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUDS...AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO GOT A WARMER START THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...BUT COULD SEE SOME POCKETS STRUGGLING TO REACH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN HAD NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA
THIS MORNING...ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO THE WEST...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS NOTED IN
THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO OF NOTE
WAS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL RIDE
INTO THE PLAINS AND DROP THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE SLOW TO MIX EAST UNDER LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOWS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE 40...THEN
REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 STILL REMAIN LIKELY.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING. ANOTHER SUNNY AND LIGHT WIND DAY IS EXPECTED
THEN...WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS THAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES WERE HINTING AT JUST
24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED
SOME...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER START TIME.

PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM WESTERN
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK...WITH INTERMITTENT COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT KOMA/KOFK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL CLOUDS
SCATTER. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10KT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 181735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS 1500-FT STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CLOUD COVER MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. DID ALLOW A RAPID DISSIPATION IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN AND MIXING SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEB MOVES EASTWARD. FOR NOW...HAVE
NOT LOWERED TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUDS...AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO GOT A WARMER START THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...BUT COULD SEE SOME POCKETS STRUGGLING TO REACH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN HAD NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA
THIS MORNING...ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO THE WEST...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS NOTED IN
THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO OF NOTE
WAS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL RIDE
INTO THE PLAINS AND DROP THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE SLOW TO MIX EAST UNDER LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOWS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE 40...THEN
REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 STILL REMAIN LIKELY.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING. ANOTHER SUNNY AND LIGHT WIND DAY IS EXPECTED
THEN...WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS THAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES WERE HINTING AT JUST
24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED
SOME...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER START TIME.

PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM WESTERN
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK...WITH INTERMITTENT COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT KOMA/KOFK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL CLOUDS
SCATTER. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10KT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 181428
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
928 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS 1500-FT STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CLOUD COVER MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. DID ALLOW A RAPID DISSIPATION IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN AND MIXING SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEB MOVES EASTWARD. FOR NOW...HAVE
NOT LOWERED TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUDS...AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO GOT A WARMER START THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...BUT COULD SEE SOME POCKETS STRUGGLING TO REACH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN HAD NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA
THIS MORNING...ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO THE WEST...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS NOTED IN
THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO OF NOTE
WAS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL RIDE
INTO THE PLAINS AND DROP THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE SLOW TO MIX EAST UNDER LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOWS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE 40...THEN
REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 STILL REMAIN LIKELY.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING. ANOTHER SUNNY AND LIGHT WIND DAY IS EXPECTED
THEN...WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS THAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES WERE HINTING AT JUST
24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED
SOME...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER START TIME.

PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM WESTERN
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS START OFF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AT 12Z INCLUDING KOFK AND KLNK. KOFK EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A
MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 17Z. KLNK SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY 15Z AS NARROW SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVES TO THE WEST. AFTER 18Z ALL SITES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 181211
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
711 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN HAD NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA
THIS MORNING...ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO THE WEST...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS NOTED IN
THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO OF NOTE
WAS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL RIDE
INTO THE PLAINS AND DROP THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE SLOW TO MIX EAST UNDER LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOWS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE 40...THEN
REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 STILL REMAIN LIKELY.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING. ANOTHER SUNNY AND LIGHT WIND DAY IS EXPECTED
THEN...WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS THAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES WERE HINTING AT JUST
24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED
SOME...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER START TIME.

PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM WESTERN
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS START OFF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AT 12Z INCLUDING KOFK AND KLNK. KOFK EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A
MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 17Z. KLNK SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY 15Z AS NARROW SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVES TO THE WEST. AFTER 18Z ALL SITES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 181211
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
711 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN HAD NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA
THIS MORNING...ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO THE WEST...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS NOTED IN
THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO OF NOTE
WAS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL RIDE
INTO THE PLAINS AND DROP THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE SLOW TO MIX EAST UNDER LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOWS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE 40...THEN
REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 STILL REMAIN LIKELY.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING. ANOTHER SUNNY AND LIGHT WIND DAY IS EXPECTED
THEN...WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS THAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES WERE HINTING AT JUST
24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED
SOME...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER START TIME.

PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM WESTERN
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS START OFF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AT 12Z INCLUDING KOFK AND KLNK. KOFK EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A
MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 17Z. KLNK SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY 15Z AS NARROW SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVES TO THE WEST. AFTER 18Z ALL SITES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 180832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN HAD NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA
THIS MORNING...ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO THE WEST...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS NOTED IN
THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO OF NOTE
WAS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL RIDE
INTO THE PLAINS AND DROP THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE SLOW TO MIX EAST UNDER LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOWS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE 40...THEN
REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 STILL REMAIN LIKELY.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING. ANOTHER SUNNY AND LIGHT WIND DAY IS EXPECTED
THEN...WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS THAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES WERE HINTING AT JUST
24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED
SOME...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER START TIME.

PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM WESTERN
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT KOMA
LATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH JUST A SCATTERED DECK FOR NOW...BUT WILL
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS IF A BROKEN DECK MAY MOVE IN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 180832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN HAD NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA
THIS MORNING...ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO THE WEST...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS NOTED IN
THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO OF NOTE
WAS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL RIDE
INTO THE PLAINS AND DROP THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE SLOW TO MIX EAST UNDER LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOWS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE 40...THEN
REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 STILL REMAIN LIKELY.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING. ANOTHER SUNNY AND LIGHT WIND DAY IS EXPECTED
THEN...WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS THAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES WERE HINTING AT JUST
24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED
SOME...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER START TIME.

PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM WESTERN
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT KOMA
LATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH JUST A SCATTERED DECK FOR NOW...BUT WILL
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS IF A BROKEN DECK MAY MOVE IN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 180510
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE
SHORT TERM. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ARND THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LOWER PLAINS. THE SFC HIGH WILL
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CROSSING THE FA
DURING THE DAY ON SAT. OVERNIGHT SOME OF THE SHRT RANGE MODELS
WOULD BRING THE SC DECK OVER ERN SD/MN INTO THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
AS THE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER TURN TO THE N/NE...WHILE
OTHERS KEEP THIS DECK TO THE NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT
WHICH WILL END UP BEING CORRECT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS TO
MOVE SWD. SFC RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONT TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FLATTENS AND EXPANDS EWD. ANY MORE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE
SFC HIGH IN PLACE LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE ARE
SEEING TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS CAPTURED
WELL AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS.
RETURN FLOW WILL GET GOING ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT OTHER THAN A WIND CHANGE AND SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE QUIET FALL WEATHER WILL CONT INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR TUE AND WED. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST INDICATES ON TUE
AND WED...BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR LIMITED MIXING WITH A
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC
POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU FOR MAINLY THE WRN FA AS THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO REACH OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE REALIZED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT KOMA
LATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH JUST A SCATTERED DECK FOR NOW...BUT WILL
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS IF A BROKEN DECK MAY MOVE IN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 180510
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE
SHORT TERM. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ARND THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LOWER PLAINS. THE SFC HIGH WILL
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CROSSING THE FA
DURING THE DAY ON SAT. OVERNIGHT SOME OF THE SHRT RANGE MODELS
WOULD BRING THE SC DECK OVER ERN SD/MN INTO THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
AS THE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER TURN TO THE N/NE...WHILE
OTHERS KEEP THIS DECK TO THE NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT
WHICH WILL END UP BEING CORRECT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS TO
MOVE SWD. SFC RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONT TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FLATTENS AND EXPANDS EWD. ANY MORE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE
SFC HIGH IN PLACE LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE ARE
SEEING TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS CAPTURED
WELL AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS.
RETURN FLOW WILL GET GOING ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT OTHER THAN A WIND CHANGE AND SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE QUIET FALL WEATHER WILL CONT INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR TUE AND WED. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST INDICATES ON TUE
AND WED...BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR LIMITED MIXING WITH A
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC
POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU FOR MAINLY THE WRN FA AS THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO REACH OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE REALIZED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT KOMA
LATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH JUST A SCATTERED DECK FOR NOW...BUT WILL
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS IF A BROKEN DECK MAY MOVE IN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 172322
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE
SHORT TERM. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ARND THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LOWER PLAINS. THE SFC HIGH WILL
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CROSSING THE FA
DURING THE DAY ON SAT. OVERNIGHT SOME OF THE SHRT RANGE MODELS
WOULD BRING THE SC DECK OVER ERN SD/MN INTO THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
AS THE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER TURN TO THE N/NE...WHILE
OTHERS KEEP THIS DECK TO THE NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT
WHICH WILL END UP BEING CORRECT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS TO
MOVE SWD. SFC RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONT TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FLATTENS AND EXPANDS EWD. ANY MORE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE
SFC HIGH IN PLACE LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE ARE
SEEING TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS CAPTURED
WELL AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS.
RETURN FLOW WILL GET GOING ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT OTHER THAN A WIND CHANGE AND SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE QUIET FALL WEATHER WILL CONT INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR TUE AND WED. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST INDICATES ON TUE
AND WED...BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR LIMITED MIXING WITH A
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC
POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU FOR MAINLY THE WRN FA AS THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO REACH OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE REALIZED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS
THROUGH 01-02Z...THEN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS BUT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. LOWER SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
3000 FEET COULD AFFECT KOMA THROUGH THE KOMA SITE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 172322
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE
SHORT TERM. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ARND THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LOWER PLAINS. THE SFC HIGH WILL
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CROSSING THE FA
DURING THE DAY ON SAT. OVERNIGHT SOME OF THE SHRT RANGE MODELS
WOULD BRING THE SC DECK OVER ERN SD/MN INTO THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
AS THE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER TURN TO THE N/NE...WHILE
OTHERS KEEP THIS DECK TO THE NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT
WHICH WILL END UP BEING CORRECT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS TO
MOVE SWD. SFC RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONT TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FLATTENS AND EXPANDS EWD. ANY MORE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE
SFC HIGH IN PLACE LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE ARE
SEEING TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS CAPTURED
WELL AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS.
RETURN FLOW WILL GET GOING ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT OTHER THAN A WIND CHANGE AND SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE QUIET FALL WEATHER WILL CONT INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR TUE AND WED. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST INDICATES ON TUE
AND WED...BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR LIMITED MIXING WITH A
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC
POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU FOR MAINLY THE WRN FA AS THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO REACH OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE REALIZED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS
THROUGH 01-02Z...THEN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS BUT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. LOWER SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
3000 FEET COULD AFFECT KOMA THROUGH THE KOMA SITE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 172322
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE
SHORT TERM. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ARND THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LOWER PLAINS. THE SFC HIGH WILL
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CROSSING THE FA
DURING THE DAY ON SAT. OVERNIGHT SOME OF THE SHRT RANGE MODELS
WOULD BRING THE SC DECK OVER ERN SD/MN INTO THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
AS THE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER TURN TO THE N/NE...WHILE
OTHERS KEEP THIS DECK TO THE NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT
WHICH WILL END UP BEING CORRECT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS TO
MOVE SWD. SFC RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONT TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FLATTENS AND EXPANDS EWD. ANY MORE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE
SFC HIGH IN PLACE LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE ARE
SEEING TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS CAPTURED
WELL AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS.
RETURN FLOW WILL GET GOING ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT OTHER THAN A WIND CHANGE AND SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE QUIET FALL WEATHER WILL CONT INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR TUE AND WED. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST INDICATES ON TUE
AND WED...BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR LIMITED MIXING WITH A
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC
POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU FOR MAINLY THE WRN FA AS THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO REACH OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE REALIZED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS
THROUGH 01-02Z...THEN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS BUT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. LOWER SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
3000 FEET COULD AFFECT KOMA THROUGH THE KOMA SITE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




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