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000
FXUS63 KOAX 020009
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
709 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHWEST IA...BUT AS INSTABILITY WANES...THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING IS MORE FITTING...TAPERING TO JUST RAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA. RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER...WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COULD JUST CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT 24HRS AND WHETHER THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING SITUATION.

SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF WRN LONGWAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. LLVL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ENSURE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPANDS OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID MS VLY WILL
DRAG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEHIND AND INDUCE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WHERE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BNDRY WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE BOOSTED QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AND AT THIS
POINT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WILL ARISE OVERNIGHT
AND NEGATIVELY AFFECT SOME RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SEEMS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF PD OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING VORT
ENERGY. UPPER LYR QVECT ARE IMPLYING THAT POCKET OF DPVA WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAA FILTERING IN AND PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT.
THUS WILL ADD TOKEN 20S

AS FOR THE SVR THREAT TONIGHT...FAVORABLE ELEMENTS TO INDUCE SVR
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...BRUNT OF CAA FILTERING IN WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GOING EXTENDED PDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DRY FCST IN PLACE AND
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
NEAR ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN FORECAST...THEN LIKELY TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE IN WITH RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WHETHER THAT COULD IMPACT THE
KLNK TAF SITE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE RAIN
CHANCES PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z. COULD ALSO BE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLNK/KOFK THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW...BUT TOO FAR
OUT TO PREDICT WITH CERTAINTY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 020009
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
709 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHWEST IA...BUT AS INSTABILITY WANES...THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING IS MORE FITTING...TAPERING TO JUST RAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA. RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER...WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COULD JUST CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT 24HRS AND WHETHER THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING SITUATION.

SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF WRN LONGWAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. LLVL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ENSURE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPANDS OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID MS VLY WILL
DRAG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEHIND AND INDUCE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WHERE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BNDRY WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE BOOSTED QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AND AT THIS
POINT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WILL ARISE OVERNIGHT
AND NEGATIVELY AFFECT SOME RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SEEMS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF PD OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING VORT
ENERGY. UPPER LYR QVECT ARE IMPLYING THAT POCKET OF DPVA WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAA FILTERING IN AND PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT.
THUS WILL ADD TOKEN 20S

AS FOR THE SVR THREAT TONIGHT...FAVORABLE ELEMENTS TO INDUCE SVR
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...BRUNT OF CAA FILTERING IN WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GOING EXTENDED PDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DRY FCST IN PLACE AND
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
NEAR ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN FORECAST...THEN LIKELY TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE IN WITH RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WHETHER THAT COULD IMPACT THE
KLNK TAF SITE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE RAIN
CHANCES PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z. COULD ALSO BE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLNK/KOFK THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW...BUT TOO FAR
OUT TO PREDICT WITH CERTAINTY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 012321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT 24HRS AND WHETHER THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING SITUATION.

SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF WRN LONGWAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. LLVL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ENSURE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPANDS OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID MS VLY WILL
DRAG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEHIND AND INDUCE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WHERE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BNDRY WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE BOOSTED QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AND AT THIS
POINT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WILL ARISE OVERNIGHT
AND NEGATIVELY AFFECT SOME RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SEEMS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF PD OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING VORT
ENERGY. UPPER LYR QVECT ARE IMPLYING THAT POCKET OF DPVA WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAA FILTERING IN AND PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT.
THUS WILL ADD TOKEN 20S

AS FOR THE SVR THREAT TONIGHT...FAVORABLE ELEMENTS TO INDUCE SVR
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...BRUNT OF CAA FILTERING IN WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GOING EXTENDED PDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DRY FCST IN PLACE AND
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS  TO
NEAR ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN FORECAST...THEN LIKELY TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE IN WITH RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WHETHER THAT COULD IMPACT THE
KLNK TAF SITE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE RAIN
CHANCES PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z. COULD ALSO BE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLNK/KOFK THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW...BUT TOO FAR
OUT TO PREDICT WITH CERTAINTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 012321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT 24HRS AND WHETHER THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING SITUATION.

SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF WRN LONGWAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. LLVL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ENSURE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPANDS OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID MS VLY WILL
DRAG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEHIND AND INDUCE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WHERE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BNDRY WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE BOOSTED QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AND AT THIS
POINT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WILL ARISE OVERNIGHT
AND NEGATIVELY AFFECT SOME RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SEEMS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF PD OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING VORT
ENERGY. UPPER LYR QVECT ARE IMPLYING THAT POCKET OF DPVA WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAA FILTERING IN AND PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT.
THUS WILL ADD TOKEN 20S

AS FOR THE SVR THREAT TONIGHT...FAVORABLE ELEMENTS TO INDUCE SVR
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...BRUNT OF CAA FILTERING IN WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GOING EXTENDED PDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DRY FCST IN PLACE AND
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS  TO
NEAR ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN FORECAST...THEN LIKELY TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE IN WITH RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WHETHER THAT COULD IMPACT THE
KLNK TAF SITE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE RAIN
CHANCES PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z. COULD ALSO BE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLNK/KOFK THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW...BUT TOO FAR
OUT TO PREDICT WITH CERTAINTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 011958
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT 24HRS AND WHETHER THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING SITUATION.

SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF WRN LONGWAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. LLVL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ENSURE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPANDS OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID MS VLY WILL
DRAG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEHIND AND INDUCE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WHERE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BNDRY WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE BOOSTED QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AND AT THIS
POINT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WILL ARISE OVERNIGHT
AND NEGATIVELY AFFECT SOME RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SEEMS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF PD OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING VORT
ENERGY. UPPER LYR QVECT ARE IMPLYING THAT POCKET OF DPVA WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAA FILTERING IN AND PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT.
THUS WILL ADD TOKEN 20S

AS FOR THE SVR THREAT TONIGHT...FAVORABLE ELEMENTS TO INDUCE SVR
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...BRUNT OF CAA FILTERING IN WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GOING EXTENDED PDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DRY FCST IN PLACE AND
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS  TO
NEAR ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST OF ALL THREE TAF SITES AS
OF 18Z. ALL THREE TAF SITES WERE MVFR TO VFR. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 011958
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT 24HRS AND WHETHER THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING SITUATION.

SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF WRN LONGWAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. LLVL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ENSURE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPANDS OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID MS VLY WILL
DRAG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEHIND AND INDUCE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WHERE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BNDRY WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE BOOSTED QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AND AT THIS
POINT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WILL ARISE OVERNIGHT
AND NEGATIVELY AFFECT SOME RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SEEMS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF PD OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING VORT
ENERGY. UPPER LYR QVECT ARE IMPLYING THAT POCKET OF DPVA WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAA FILTERING IN AND PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT.
THUS WILL ADD TOKEN 20S

AS FOR THE SVR THREAT TONIGHT...FAVORABLE ELEMENTS TO INDUCE SVR
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...BRUNT OF CAA FILTERING IN WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GOING EXTENDED PDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DRY FCST IN PLACE AND
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS  TO
NEAR ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST OF ALL THREE TAF SITES AS
OF 18Z. ALL THREE TAF SITES WERE MVFR TO VFR. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MEYER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 011802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
102 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL RAIN
EVENTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK BUT OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIMITED FORCING INDICATED UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD 18Z-06Z THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. POPS THEN REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A TASTE OF FALL-
LIKE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME FROST
POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TYPICAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST OF ALL THREE TAF SITES AS
OF 18Z. ALL THREE TAF SITES WERE MVFR TO VFR. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEYER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 011802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
102 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL RAIN
EVENTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK BUT OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIMITED FORCING INDICATED UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD 18Z-06Z THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. POPS THEN REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A TASTE OF FALL-
LIKE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME FROST
POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TYPICAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST OF ALL THREE TAF SITES AS
OF 18Z. ALL THREE TAF SITES WERE MVFR TO VFR. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 011142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL RAIN
EVENTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT TRAINING OF CELLS IN THAT AREA HAD
RESULTED IN ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON THE EVENING SHIFT. RECENT TREND
ON RADAR HAS BEEN TOWARD DIMINISHING AREA OF MORE INTENSE CELLS IN
THE LINCOLN AREA WITH A GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WITH
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IOWA AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. PLAN TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PRIOR TO ZONE PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

SURFACE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK BUT OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIMITED FORCING INDICATED UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD 18Z-06Z THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. POPS THEN REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A TASTE OF FALL-
LIKE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME FROST
POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TYPICAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 15Z. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AT ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES
IN KOFK. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA WILL TURN LIGHT SOUTH WIND TO NORTHERLY...AND COULD SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS WILL BE APPROACHING TAF SITES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 011142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL RAIN
EVENTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT TRAINING OF CELLS IN THAT AREA HAD
RESULTED IN ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON THE EVENING SHIFT. RECENT TREND
ON RADAR HAS BEEN TOWARD DIMINISHING AREA OF MORE INTENSE CELLS IN
THE LINCOLN AREA WITH A GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WITH
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IOWA AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. PLAN TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PRIOR TO ZONE PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

SURFACE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK BUT OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIMITED FORCING INDICATED UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD 18Z-06Z THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. POPS THEN REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A TASTE OF FALL-
LIKE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME FROST
POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TYPICAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 15Z. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AT ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES
IN KOFK. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA WILL TURN LIGHT SOUTH WIND TO NORTHERLY...AND COULD SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS WILL BE APPROACHING TAF SITES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 010745
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL RAIN
EVENTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT TRAINING OF CELLS IN THAT AREA HAD
RESULTED IN ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON THE EVENING SHIFT. RECENT TREND
ON RADAR HAS BEEN TOWARD DIMINISHING AREA OF MORE INTENSE CELLS IN
THE LINCOLN AREA WITH A GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WITH
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IOWA AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. PLAN TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PRIOR TO ZONE PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

SURFACE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK BUT OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIMITED FORCING INDICATED UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD 18Z-06Z THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. POPS THEN REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME FROST
POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TYPICAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KOFK...BUT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z. TSRA WILL
AFFECT KOMA/KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN SHOWERS AT KOMA TIL
ABOUT 14-15Z. THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA...BACK TO VFR
BY 17Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
KLNK/KOMA BY 22Z-02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 010745
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL RAIN
EVENTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT TRAINING OF CELLS IN THAT AREA HAD
RESULTED IN ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON THE EVENING SHIFT. RECENT TREND
ON RADAR HAS BEEN TOWARD DIMINISHING AREA OF MORE INTENSE CELLS IN
THE LINCOLN AREA WITH A GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WITH
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IOWA AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. PLAN TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PRIOR TO ZONE PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

SURFACE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK BUT OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIMITED FORCING INDICATED UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD 18Z-06Z THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. POPS THEN REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME FROST
POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TYPICAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KOFK...BUT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z. TSRA WILL
AFFECT KOMA/KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN SHOWERS AT KOMA TIL
ABOUT 14-15Z. THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA...BACK TO VFR
BY 17Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
KLNK/KOMA BY 22Z-02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 010516
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SD SFC LOW...SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN CWA FOR
THIS AFTN/EVENING LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AT
PRESENT SFC LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WRN SD WITH MOISTURE FEED RUNNING
UP THE MO VLY REGION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE POTENT UPPER LVL VORT MAX/SFC
REFLECTION TRIPLE POINT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER ON...THUS WILL HAVE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SMALL POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOVING ON...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEXT
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SFC BNDRY WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ERN CO...AND
SHOULD BE STAGNANT THRU THE DAY DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. BY WED
NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ACT
TO HELP DISPLACE THE SFC FRONT EWD...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN OK BY THUR AFTN. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE ARW/NMM BEST REFLECTS ANTICIPATED PROGRESSION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME...THUS HAVE GEARED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WED AFTN...STOUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON HAND.
HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SEEM TO FAVOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD SEE STRONG/NEAR SVR STORMS.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF PASSING BNDRY
COUPLED WITH PROLONGED VERTICAL ASCENT...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE A
FEW LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL EXPERIENCE HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END THURSDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH GFS/ECM
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS...EXPECT
INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THUS ALLOWING FOR A
RATHER NICE FALL TYPE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KOFK...BUT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z. TSRA WILL
AFFECT KOMA/KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN SHOWERS AT KOMA TIL
ABOUT 14-15Z. THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA...BACK TO VFR
BY 17Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
KLNK/KOMA BY 22Z-02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ066>068-078-088>093.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 010516
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SD SFC LOW...SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN CWA FOR
THIS AFTN/EVENING LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AT
PRESENT SFC LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WRN SD WITH MOISTURE FEED RUNNING
UP THE MO VLY REGION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE POTENT UPPER LVL VORT MAX/SFC
REFLECTION TRIPLE POINT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER ON...THUS WILL HAVE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SMALL POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOVING ON...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEXT
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SFC BNDRY WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ERN CO...AND
SHOULD BE STAGNANT THRU THE DAY DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. BY WED
NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ACT
TO HELP DISPLACE THE SFC FRONT EWD...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN OK BY THUR AFTN. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE ARW/NMM BEST REFLECTS ANTICIPATED PROGRESSION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME...THUS HAVE GEARED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WED AFTN...STOUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON HAND.
HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SEEM TO FAVOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD SEE STRONG/NEAR SVR STORMS.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF PASSING BNDRY
COUPLED WITH PROLONGED VERTICAL ASCENT...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE A
FEW LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL EXPERIENCE HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END THURSDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH GFS/ECM
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS...EXPECT
INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THUS ALLOWING FOR A
RATHER NICE FALL TYPE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KOFK...BUT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z. TSRA WILL
AFFECT KOMA/KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN SHOWERS AT KOMA TIL
ABOUT 14-15Z. THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA...BACK TO VFR
BY 17Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
KLNK/KOMA BY 22Z-02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ066>068-078-088>093.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 302322
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SD SFC LOW...SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN CWA FOR
THIS AFTN/EVENING LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AT
PRESENT SFC LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WRN SD WITH MOISTURE FEED RUNNING
UP THE MO VLY REGION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE POTENT UPPER LVL VORT MAX/SFC
REFLECTION TRIPLE POINT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER ON...THUS WILL HAVE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SMALL POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOVING ON...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEXT
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SFC BNDRY WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ERN CO...AND
SHOULD BE STAGNANT THRU THE DAY DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. BY WED
NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ACT
TO HELP DISPLACE THE SFC FRONT EWD...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN OK BY THUR AFTN. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE ARW/NMM BEST REFLECTS ANTICIPATED PROGRESSION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME...THUS HAVE GEARED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WED AFTN...STOUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON HAND.
HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SEEM TO FAVOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD SEE STRONG/NEAR SVR STORMS.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF PASSING BNDRY
COUPLED WITH PROLONGED VERTICAL ASCENT...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE A
FEW LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL EXPERIENCE HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END THURSDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH GFS/ECM
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS...EXPECT
INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THUS ALLOWING FOR A
RATHER NICE FALL TYPE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRECIP IS LIKELY DONE AT KOFK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
SHOWERS MIGHT MOVE BACK IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
KOMA/KLNK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THEN ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
ESPECIALLY AT KLNK/KOMA. WILL PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO VFR LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT
KOMA/KLNK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TOO FAR OUT TO PREDICT WITH
ANY CERTAINTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302017
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SD SFC LOW...SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN CWA FOR
THIS AFTN/EVENING LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AT
PRESENT SFC LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WRN SD WITH MOISTURE FEED RUNNING
UP THE MO VLY REGION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE POTENT UPPER LVL VORT MAX/SFC
REFLECTION TRIPLE POINT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER ON...THUS WILL HAVE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SMALL POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOVING ON...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEXT
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SFC BNDRY WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ERN CO...AND
SHOULD BE STAGNANT THRU THE DAY DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. BY WED
NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ACT
TO HELP DISPLACE THE SFC FRONT EWD...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN OK BY THUR AFTN. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE ARW/NMM BEST REFLECTS ANTICIPATED PROGRESSION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME...THUS HAVE GEARED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WED AFTN...STOUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON HAND.
HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SEEM TO FAVOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD SEE STRONG/NEAR SVR STORMS.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF PASSING BNDRY
COUPLED WITH PROLONGED VERTICAL ASCENT...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE A
FEW LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL EXPERIENCE HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END THURSDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH GFS/ECM
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS...EXPECT
INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THUS ALLOWING FOR A
RATHER NICE FALL TYPE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301720
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERE RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS CONDITIONAL AND AGREE WITH
THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE MAY STILL HAVE A FEW STRONG
STORMS AROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN. AHEAD
OF THE PCPN AREA IT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHERE PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IT IS
IN THE 60S. EXPECT PCPN TO CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THEN MORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301720
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERE RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS CONDITIONAL AND AGREE WITH
THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE MAY STILL HAVE A FEW STRONG
STORMS AROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN. AHEAD
OF THE PCPN AREA IT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHERE PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IT IS
IN THE 60S. EXPECT PCPN TO CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THEN MORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...AND KLNK
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT KOMA AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR VSBYS COMMON IN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NO
PRECIP BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z...BUT MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG A FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND IN THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS AFTER
04Z. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...AND KLNK
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT KOMA AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR VSBYS COMMON IN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NO
PRECIP BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z...BUT MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG A FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND IN THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS AFTER
04Z. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300807
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 292312
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD SEND A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
WEAKENING POSSIBLY BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THUS THE PREVAILING TSTM MENTION WITH THE
00Z TAFS AT KOFK AND KLNK AND THE TEMPO GROUP FOR KOMA.
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 292312
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD SEND A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
WEAKENING POSSIBLY BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THUS THE PREVAILING TSTM MENTION WITH THE
00Z TAFS AT KOFK AND KLNK AND THE TEMPO GROUP FOR KOMA.
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292002
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 292002
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SENT OUT A MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS EARLIER AND
WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE BY 1230 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY LIFT IN CEDAR AND KNOX COUNTIES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OMAHA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE HELD DOWN UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SENT OUT A MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS EARLIER AND
WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE BY 1230 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY LIFT IN CEDAR AND KNOX COUNTIES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OMAHA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE HELD DOWN UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291111
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID CLOUDS AT 9000-15000 FEET
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT KOFK 09Z-12Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291111
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID CLOUDS AT 9000-15000 FEET
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT KOFK 09Z-12Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




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