Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KOAX 231208
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE 20G30KT BY 18Z AT ALL THREE SITES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH 23Z. GUSTY NORTHWESY WINDS CONTINUE BEYOND
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231208
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE 20G30KT BY 18Z AT ALL THREE SITES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH 23Z. GUSTY NORTHWESY WINDS CONTINUE BEYOND
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230517
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230517
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 222316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLICATED TAFS ESPECIALLY AT KLNK/KOMA AS
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY AT KOMA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. KOFK AGAIN REMAINS
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK BUT BELIEVE IT
WILL MAKE IT THERE BEFORE 06Z...BUT PROBABLY JUST MVFR. SECONDARY
CONCERN IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-14
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...
BY 11Z AT KOFK...AND 13-14Z AT KLNK/KOMA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLICATED TAFS ESPECIALLY AT KLNK/KOMA AS
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY AT KOMA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. KOFK AGAIN REMAINS
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK BUT BELIEVE IT
WILL MAKE IT THERE BEFORE 06Z...BUT PROBABLY JUST MVFR. SECONDARY
CONCERN IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-14
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...
BY 11Z AT KOFK...AND 13-14Z AT KLNK/KOMA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 222141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 18Z. KOFK FINALLY WENT VFR WHILE KOMA AND KLNK STILL IN
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATUS DECK
ERODING SLOWLY SO EXPECT KOMA AND KLNK TO GO VFR AROUND 21Z. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 222141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 18Z. KOFK FINALLY WENT VFR WHILE KOMA AND KLNK STILL IN
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATUS DECK
ERODING SLOWLY SO EXPECT KOMA AND KLNK TO GO VFR AROUND 21Z. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 18Z. KOFK FINALLY WENT VFR WHILE KOMA AND KLNK STILL IN
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATUS DECK
ERODING SLOWLY SO EXPECT KOMA AND KLNK TO GO VFR AROUND 21Z. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 221738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 18Z. KOFK FINALLY WENT VFR WHILE KOMA AND KLNK STILL IN
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATUS DECK
ERODING SLOWLY SO EXPECT KOMA AND KLNK TO GO VFR AROUND 21Z. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221207
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS START OFF THE PERIOD AT KOMA AND KLNK WHILE KOFK
REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CIGS. EXPECT KOFK TO BECOME VFR
BY 15Z AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SPREADS EAST.
LESS CERTAIN ON TIMING AT KOMA AND KLNK BUT TREND TOWARD VFR
15Z-18Z. LOWER CIGS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 221207
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS START OFF THE PERIOD AT KOMA AND KLNK WHILE KOFK
REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CIGS. EXPECT KOFK TO BECOME VFR
BY 15Z AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SPREADS EAST.
LESS CERTAIN ON TIMING AT KOMA AND KLNK BUT TREND TOWARD VFR
15Z-18Z. LOWER CIGS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 220942
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS...TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA WITH SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLNK...AND MVFR AT KOFK WHICH REMAINS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY 08-12Z. KLNK SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA...BY 12-16Z. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AT KLNK/KOFK BY 22-01Z AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 220942
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS...TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA WITH SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLNK...AND MVFR AT KOFK WHICH REMAINS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY 08-12Z. KLNK SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA...BY 12-16Z. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AT KLNK/KOFK BY 22-01Z AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 220524
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1124 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 3 SYSTEMS OF INTERESTS OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN US. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER ERN CO/WRN KS...THE
NEXT OVER THE DESERTS SW...AND FINALLY A SHRTWV TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF AK. ALL 3 OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WX ACRS THE CWA
OVER THE SHRT TERM PERIOD. THE CO/KS SHRTWV TROF HAS SHIFTED NEWD
PER EARLY AFTN WV IMAGERY AND WAS LOCATED OVER NRN KS. THIS WILL
CONT TO TRACK NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z
850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED GOOD QUALITY MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS /850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6 G/KG INTO NRN TX/...AND THIS
WAS BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THE KS SHRTWV TROUGH. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO STREAM NEWD THROUGH THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES INDC SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE SRN CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVNG HOURS AS THE
WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE DZ MENTION THIS
EVENING AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS OF GOOD QUALITY...THE LIFT ATOP
THIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THIS
EVNG IN THE SE CWA WILL BE LIQUID AS TMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ON SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS AS THOSE SURFACES COULD STILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...BUT OTHER ROAD SENSORS INDC PAVEMENT TEMPS ALL
ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST SHRT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDCS THAT FOG MAY
BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR OVER-RIDES THE COLD
GROUND. THE NW CWA...NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY BE THE
FAVORED SPOT FOR ANY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL MENTION SOME FOG
EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SW AND THEN W OVERNIGHT AS THE
WAVE PASSES AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS/FOG
EARLY ON SAT MRNG. THE FORECAST WILL TREND THIS WAY PER GFS/EC/GEM
AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS ON SAT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LATE
MRNG/EARLY AFTN SUN EXPECTED. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER THE DESERT SW/ WILL EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT
AND BRING A RETURNED NWD MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE FA. THIS SET-UP
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DZ LATE SAT EVNG THRU THE NIGHT AS THE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WELL TIMED WITH SEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE.
WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA IN CASE
SOME OF THE DZ MEASURES...BUT IT LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE A DZ/FG EVENT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWS WILL CONT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON
SAT AND SO NO ISSUES WITH FREEZING PRECIP EXPECTED.

THE FINAL SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT AND WILL DRAG A STRONG CDFNT THROUGH THE FA BY EARLY SUN.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN CLEAR THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
CAA. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A GOOD SC DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC A GOOD PART OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET
LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING GOES TO OUR NE THOUGH SO WE DON`T EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW AGAIN GOES TO THE NW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK WX DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE IS VERY
DIFFICULT. THE BEST SHOT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM.
WED AND THU MRNG APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS...TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA WITH SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLNK...AND MVFR AT KOFK WHICH REMAINS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY 08-12Z. KLNK SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA...BY 12-16Z. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AT KLNK/KOFK BY 22-01Z AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 212311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
511 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 3 SYSTEMS OF INTERESTS OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN US. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER ERN CO/WRN KS...THE
NEXT OVER THE DESERTS SW...AND FINALLY A SHRTWV TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF AK. ALL 3 OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WX ACRS THE CWA
OVER THE SHRT TERM PERIOD. THE CO/KS SHRTWV TROF HAS SHIFTED NEWD
PER EARLY AFTN WV IMAGERY AND WAS LOCATED OVER NRN KS. THIS WILL
CONT TO TRACK NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z
850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED GOOD QUALITY MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS /850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6 G/KG INTO NRN TX/...AND THIS
WAS BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THE KS SHRTWV TROUGH. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO STREAM NEWD THROUGH THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES INDC SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE SRN CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVNG HOURS AS THE
WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE DZ MENTION THIS
EVENING AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS OF GOOD QUALITY...THE LIFT ATOP
THIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THIS
EVNG IN THE SE CWA WILL BE LIQUID AS TMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ON SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS AS THOSE SURFACES COULD STILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...BUT OTHER ROAD SENSORS INDC PAVEMENT TEMPS ALL
ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST SHRT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDCS THAT FOG MAY
BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR OVER-RIDES THE COLD
GROUND. THE NW CWA...NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY BE THE
FAVORED SPOT FOR ANY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL MENTION SOME FOG
EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SW AND THEN W OVERNIGHT AS THE
WAVE PASSES AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS/FOG
EARLY ON SAT MRNG. THE FORECAST WILL TREND THIS WAY PER GFS/EC/GEM
AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS ON SAT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LATE
MRNG/EARLY AFTN SUN EXPECTED. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER THE DESERT SW/ WILL EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT
AND BRING A RETURNED NWD MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE FA. THIS SET-UP
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DZ LATE SAT EVNG THRU THE NIGHT AS THE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WELL TIMED WITH SEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE.
WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA IN CASE
SOME OF THE DZ MEASURES...BUT IT LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE A DZ/FG EVENT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWS WILL CONT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON
SAT AND SO NO ISSUES WITH FREEZING PRECIP EXPECTED.

THE FINAL SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT AND WILL DRAG A STRONG CDFNT THROUGH THE FA BY EARLY SUN.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN CLEAR THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
CAA. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A GOOD SC DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC A GOOD PART OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET
LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING GOES TO OUR NE THOUGH SO WE DON`T EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW AGAIN GOES TO THE NW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK WX DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE IS VERY
DIFFICULT. THE BEST SHOT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM.
WED AND THU MRNG APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THEN SCATTERS BACK OUT BY 12-16Z TOMORROW
MORNING. MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE
SOUTHEAST OF THESE TWO LOCATIONS...NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTHWEST. KOFK WILL BE VFR INITIALLY...BUT MVFR DECK SHOULD
MOVE INTO THAT AREA BEFORE 06Z...THEN BECOME IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IF THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DO NOT MAKE IT TO KOFK...THEN IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA ALSO BECOME LIFR AND WILL
MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 212311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
511 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 3 SYSTEMS OF INTERESTS OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN US. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER ERN CO/WRN KS...THE
NEXT OVER THE DESERTS SW...AND FINALLY A SHRTWV TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF AK. ALL 3 OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WX ACRS THE CWA
OVER THE SHRT TERM PERIOD. THE CO/KS SHRTWV TROF HAS SHIFTED NEWD
PER EARLY AFTN WV IMAGERY AND WAS LOCATED OVER NRN KS. THIS WILL
CONT TO TRACK NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z
850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED GOOD QUALITY MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS /850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6 G/KG INTO NRN TX/...AND THIS
WAS BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THE KS SHRTWV TROUGH. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO STREAM NEWD THROUGH THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES INDC SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE SRN CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVNG HOURS AS THE
WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE DZ MENTION THIS
EVENING AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS OF GOOD QUALITY...THE LIFT ATOP
THIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THIS
EVNG IN THE SE CWA WILL BE LIQUID AS TMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ON SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS AS THOSE SURFACES COULD STILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...BUT OTHER ROAD SENSORS INDC PAVEMENT TEMPS ALL
ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST SHRT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDCS THAT FOG MAY
BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR OVER-RIDES THE COLD
GROUND. THE NW CWA...NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY BE THE
FAVORED SPOT FOR ANY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL MENTION SOME FOG
EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SW AND THEN W OVERNIGHT AS THE
WAVE PASSES AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS/FOG
EARLY ON SAT MRNG. THE FORECAST WILL TREND THIS WAY PER GFS/EC/GEM
AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS ON SAT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LATE
MRNG/EARLY AFTN SUN EXPECTED. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER THE DESERT SW/ WILL EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT
AND BRING A RETURNED NWD MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE FA. THIS SET-UP
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DZ LATE SAT EVNG THRU THE NIGHT AS THE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WELL TIMED WITH SEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE.
WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA IN CASE
SOME OF THE DZ MEASURES...BUT IT LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE A DZ/FG EVENT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWS WILL CONT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON
SAT AND SO NO ISSUES WITH FREEZING PRECIP EXPECTED.

THE FINAL SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT AND WILL DRAG A STRONG CDFNT THROUGH THE FA BY EARLY SUN.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN CLEAR THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
CAA. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A GOOD SC DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC A GOOD PART OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET
LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING GOES TO OUR NE THOUGH SO WE DON`T EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW AGAIN GOES TO THE NW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK WX DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE IS VERY
DIFFICULT. THE BEST SHOT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM.
WED AND THU MRNG APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THEN SCATTERS BACK OUT BY 12-16Z TOMORROW
MORNING. MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE
SOUTHEAST OF THESE TWO LOCATIONS...NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTHWEST. KOFK WILL BE VFR INITIALLY...BUT MVFR DECK SHOULD
MOVE INTO THAT AREA BEFORE 06Z...THEN BECOME IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IF THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DO NOT MAKE IT TO KOFK...THEN IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA ALSO BECOME LIFR AND WILL
MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 212134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 3 SYSTEMS OF INTERESTS OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN US. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER ERN CO/WRN KS...THE
NEXT OVER THE DESERTS SW...AND FINALLY A SHRTWV TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF AK. ALL 3 OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WX ACRS THE CWA
OVER THE SHRT TERM PERIOD. THE CO/KS SHRTWV TROF HAS SHIFTED NEWD
PER EARLY AFTN WV IMAGERY AND WAS LOCATED OVER NRN KS. THIS WILL
CONT TO TRACK NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z
850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED GOOD QUALITY MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS /850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6 G/KG INTO NRN TX/...AND THIS
WAS BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THE KS SHRTWV TROUGH. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO STREAM NEWD THROUGH THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES INDC SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE SRN CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVNG HOURS AS THE
WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE DZ MENTION THIS
EVENING AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS OF GOOD QUALITY...THE LIFT ATOP
THIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THIS
EVNG IN THE SE CWA WILL BE LIQUID AS TMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ON SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS AS THOSE SURFACES COULD STILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...BUT OTHER ROAD SENSORS INDC PAVEMENT TEMPS ALL
ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST SHRT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDCS THAT FOG MAY
BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR OVER-RIDES THE COLD
GROUND. THE NW CWA...NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY BE THE
FAVORED SPOT FOR ANY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL MENTION SOME FOG
EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SW AND THEN W OVERNIGHT AS THE
WAVE PASSES AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS/FOG
EARLY ON SAT MRNG. THE FORECAST WILL TREND THIS WAY PER GFS/EC/GEM
AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS ON SAT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LATE
MRNG/EARLY AFTN SUN EXPECTED. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER THE DESERT SW/ WILL EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT
AND BRING A RETURNED NWD MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE FA. THIS SET-UP
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DZ LATE SAT EVNG THRU THE NIGHT AS THE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WELL TIMED WITH SEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE.
WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA IN CASE
SOME OF THE DZ MEASURES...BUT IT LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE A DZ/FG EVENT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWS WILL CONT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON
SAT AND SO NO ISSUES WITH FREEZING PRECIP EXPECTED.

THE FINAL SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT AND WILL DRAG A STRONG CDFNT THROUGH THE FA BY EARLY SUN.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN CLEAR THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
CAA. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A GOOD SC DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC A GOOD PART OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET
LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING GOES TO OUR NE THOUGH SO WE DON`T EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW AGAIN GOES TO THE NW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK WX DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE IS VERY
DIFFICULT. THE BEST SHOT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM.
WED AND THU MRNG APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS
AS STRATUS ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD
REACH KLNK/KOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KOFK BY EVENING. AM
LESS CERTAIN OF VISIBILITY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE...BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE
TONIGHT FOR KOMA/KLNK AT LEAST TO CONTINUE TO TIP IN THE DIRECTION
OF SOME PERIOD OF GREATER RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 212134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 3 SYSTEMS OF INTERESTS OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN US. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER ERN CO/WRN KS...THE
NEXT OVER THE DESERTS SW...AND FINALLY A SHRTWV TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF AK. ALL 3 OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WX ACRS THE CWA
OVER THE SHRT TERM PERIOD. THE CO/KS SHRTWV TROF HAS SHIFTED NEWD
PER EARLY AFTN WV IMAGERY AND WAS LOCATED OVER NRN KS. THIS WILL
CONT TO TRACK NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z
850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED GOOD QUALITY MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS /850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6 G/KG INTO NRN TX/...AND THIS
WAS BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THE KS SHRTWV TROUGH. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO STREAM NEWD THROUGH THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES INDC SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE SRN CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVNG HOURS AS THE
WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE DZ MENTION THIS
EVENING AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS OF GOOD QUALITY...THE LIFT ATOP
THIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THIS
EVNG IN THE SE CWA WILL BE LIQUID AS TMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ON SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS AS THOSE SURFACES COULD STILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...BUT OTHER ROAD SENSORS INDC PAVEMENT TEMPS ALL
ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST SHRT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDCS THAT FOG MAY
BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR OVER-RIDES THE COLD
GROUND. THE NW CWA...NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY BE THE
FAVORED SPOT FOR ANY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL MENTION SOME FOG
EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SW AND THEN W OVERNIGHT AS THE
WAVE PASSES AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS/FOG
EARLY ON SAT MRNG. THE FORECAST WILL TREND THIS WAY PER GFS/EC/GEM
AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS ON SAT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LATE
MRNG/EARLY AFTN SUN EXPECTED. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER THE DESERT SW/ WILL EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT
AND BRING A RETURNED NWD MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE FA. THIS SET-UP
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DZ LATE SAT EVNG THRU THE NIGHT AS THE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WELL TIMED WITH SEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE.
WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA IN CASE
SOME OF THE DZ MEASURES...BUT IT LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE A DZ/FG EVENT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWS WILL CONT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON
SAT AND SO NO ISSUES WITH FREEZING PRECIP EXPECTED.

THE FINAL SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT AND WILL DRAG A STRONG CDFNT THROUGH THE FA BY EARLY SUN.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN CLEAR THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
CAA. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A GOOD SC DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC A GOOD PART OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET
LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING GOES TO OUR NE THOUGH SO WE DON`T EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW AGAIN GOES TO THE NW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK WX DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE IS VERY
DIFFICULT. THE BEST SHOT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM.
WED AND THU MRNG APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS
AS STRATUS ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD
REACH KLNK/KOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KOFK BY EVENING. AM
LESS CERTAIN OF VISIBILITY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE...BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE
TONIGHT FOR KOMA/KLNK AT LEAST TO CONTINUE TO TIP IN THE DIRECTION
OF SOME PERIOD OF GREATER RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 211729
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1129 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD A FEW DEGREES...AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING A LITTLE
FASTER THAN GOING FORECAST. ALSO NUDGED TIMING OF DRIZZLE/RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA JUST A LITTLE BIT LATER AS
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN ABOVE 10 DEGREES AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE JUST REACHING THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A MILDER WEEKEND WITH SPORADIC RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.

MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MAINLY ZONAL LOOK OVER
OUR AREA TODAY TO A DEEP TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TRANSITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP COLDER AIR TO OUR NORTH WHILE PUMPING MILDER AIR INTO THE
PLAINS.

WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...INDUCING LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES THERE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
GULF MOISTURE HAD WORKED AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE NEAR 50. STRATUS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED IN THIS HIGHER-
MOISTURE REGIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THESE
AREAS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAVE BEGINS MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE OCCURS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY LEADING TO A DRY DAY AND FAIRLY MILD. HAVE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 40S IF NOT LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

A SIMILAR PATTERN TO FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING
FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING COLDER AIR TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE THERE BEFORE SUNRISE THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TAKING MOISTURE AND SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE 40S
EVERYWHERE BUT WOULD EXPECT FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL START HEADING DOWNHILL
AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL
BOOKEND THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY AND THURSDAY.

COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL LOW IN THE DAKOTAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...SWINGING A LOBE OF
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AFFECTING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAY WARM TEMPERATURES TOWARD 40 ON
TUESDAY...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND TOWARD 0C BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN DROP TO -10C BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO HIGHS IN THE 20S ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS DIVERGE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS SUGGESTING SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEVELOPING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW IN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY DURING THIS TIME...AND SHOWS A POTENTIALLY WARMER
SOLUTION UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT SMALL SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS
AS STRATUS ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD
REACH KLNK/KOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KOFK BY EVENING. AM
LESS CERTAIN OF VISIBILITY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE...BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE
TONIGHT FOR KOMA/KLNK AT LEAST TO CONTINUE TO TIP IN THE DIRECTION
OF SOME PERIOD OF GREATER RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MAYES





000
FXUS63 KOAX 211729
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1129 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD A FEW DEGREES...AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING A LITTLE
FASTER THAN GOING FORECAST. ALSO NUDGED TIMING OF DRIZZLE/RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA JUST A LITTLE BIT LATER AS
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN ABOVE 10 DEGREES AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE JUST REACHING THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A MILDER WEEKEND WITH SPORADIC RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.

MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MAINLY ZONAL LOOK OVER
OUR AREA TODAY TO A DEEP TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TRANSITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP COLDER AIR TO OUR NORTH WHILE PUMPING MILDER AIR INTO THE
PLAINS.

WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...INDUCING LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES THERE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
GULF MOISTURE HAD WORKED AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE NEAR 50. STRATUS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED IN THIS HIGHER-
MOISTURE REGIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THESE
AREAS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAVE BEGINS MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE OCCURS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY LEADING TO A DRY DAY AND FAIRLY MILD. HAVE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 40S IF NOT LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

A SIMILAR PATTERN TO FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING
FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING COLDER AIR TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE THERE BEFORE SUNRISE THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TAKING MOISTURE AND SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE 40S
EVERYWHERE BUT WOULD EXPECT FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL START HEADING DOWNHILL
AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL
BOOKEND THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY AND THURSDAY.

COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL LOW IN THE DAKOTAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...SWINGING A LOBE OF
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AFFECTING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAY WARM TEMPERATURES TOWARD 40 ON
TUESDAY...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND TOWARD 0C BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN DROP TO -10C BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO HIGHS IN THE 20S ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS DIVERGE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS SUGGESTING SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEVELOPING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW IN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY DURING THIS TIME...AND SHOWS A POTENTIALLY WARMER
SOLUTION UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT SMALL SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS
AS STRATUS ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD
REACH KLNK/KOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KOFK BY EVENING. AM
LESS CERTAIN OF VISIBILITY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE...BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE
TONIGHT FOR KOMA/KLNK AT LEAST TO CONTINUE TO TIP IN THE DIRECTION
OF SOME PERIOD OF GREATER RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 211209
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
609 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A MILDER WEEKEND WITH SPORADIC RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.

MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MAINLY ZONAL LOOK OVER
OUR AREA TODAY TO A DEEP TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TRANSITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP COLDER AIR TO OUR NORTH WHILE PUMPING MILDER AIR INTO THE
PLAINS.

WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...INDUCING LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES THERE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
GULF MOISTURE HAD WORKED AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE NEAR 50. STRATUS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED IN THIS HIGHER-
MOISTURE REGIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THESE
AREAS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAVE BEGINS MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE OCCURS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY LEADING TO A DRY DAY AND FAIRLY MILD. HAVE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 40S IF NOT LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

A SIMILAR PATTERN TO FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING
FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING COLDER AIR TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE THERE BEFORE SUNRISE THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TAKING MOISTURE AND SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE 40S
EVERYWHERE BUT WOULD EXPECT FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL START HEADING DOWNHILL
AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL
BOOKEND THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY AND THURSDAY.

COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL LOW IN THE DAKOTAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...SWINGING A LOBE OF
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AFFECTING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAY WARM TEMPERATURES TOWARD 40 ON
TUESDAY...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND TOWARD 0C BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN DROP TO -10C BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO HIGHS IN THE 20S ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS DIVERGE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS SUGGESTING SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEVELOPING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW IN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY DURING THIS TIME...AND SHOWS A POTENTIALLY WARMER
SOLUTION UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT SMALL SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21Z THEN SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z AS WARMER AIR AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT KOMA AND KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 211209
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
609 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A MILDER WEEKEND WITH SPORADIC RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.

MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MAINLY ZONAL LOOK OVER
OUR AREA TODAY TO A DEEP TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TRANSITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP COLDER AIR TO OUR NORTH WHILE PUMPING MILDER AIR INTO THE
PLAINS.

WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...INDUCING LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES THERE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
GULF MOISTURE HAD WORKED AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE NEAR 50. STRATUS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED IN THIS HIGHER-
MOISTURE REGIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THESE
AREAS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAVE BEGINS MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE OCCURS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY LEADING TO A DRY DAY AND FAIRLY MILD. HAVE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 40S IF NOT LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

A SIMILAR PATTERN TO FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING
FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING COLDER AIR TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE THERE BEFORE SUNRISE THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TAKING MOISTURE AND SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE 40S
EVERYWHERE BUT WOULD EXPECT FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL START HEADING DOWNHILL
AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL
BOOKEND THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY AND THURSDAY.

COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL LOW IN THE DAKOTAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...SWINGING A LOBE OF
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AFFECTING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAY WARM TEMPERATURES TOWARD 40 ON
TUESDAY...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND TOWARD 0C BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN DROP TO -10C BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO HIGHS IN THE 20S ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS DIVERGE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS SUGGESTING SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEVELOPING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW IN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY DURING THIS TIME...AND SHOWS A POTENTIALLY WARMER
SOLUTION UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT SMALL SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21Z THEN SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z AS WARMER AIR AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT KOMA AND KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 210931
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A MILDER WEEKEND WITH SPORADIC RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.

MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MAINLY ZONAL LOOK OVER
OUR AREA TODAY TO A DEEP TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TRANSITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP COLDER AIR TO OUR NORTH WHILE PUMPING MILDER AIR INTO THE
PLAINS.

WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...INDUCING LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES THERE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
GULF MOISTURE HAD WORKED AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE NEAR 50. STRATUS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED IN THIS HIGHER-
MOISTURE REGIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THESE
AREAS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAVE BEGINS MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE OCCURS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY LEADING TO A DRY DAY AND FAIRLY MILD. HAVE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 40S IF NOT LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

A SIMILAR PATTERN TO FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING
FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING COLDER AIR TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE THERE BEFORE SUNRISE THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TAKING MOISTURE AND SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE 40S
EVERYWHERE BUT WOULD EXPECT FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL START HEADING DOWNHILL
AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL
BOOKEND THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY AND THURSDAY.

COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL LOW IN THE DAKOTAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...SWINGING A LOBE OF
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AFFECTING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAY WARM TEMPERATURES TOWARD 40 ON
TUESDAY...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND TOWARD 0C BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN DROP TO -10C BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO HIGHS IN THE 20S ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS DIVERGE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS SUGGESTING SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEVELOPING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW IN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY DURING THIS TIME...AND SHOWS A POTENTIALLY WARMER
SOLUTION UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT SMALL SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

IT APPEARED LIGHT FOG...MVFR CATEGORY...WAS LESS LIKELY THE REST
OF TONIGHT SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN 06Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS STILL
SEEMED LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTH OR SE OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN
AND MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES THEN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR TOWARD 22/06Z...BUT CHANCES
SEEMED A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE JUST YET. CIGS/VSBYS WERE KEPT
IN MVFR CATEGORY WITH THIS INCREASE IN THE LOWER CLOUDS LATE
FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THEY COULD GO LOWER WHICH COULD
BE ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 210931
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A MILDER WEEKEND WITH SPORADIC RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.

MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MAINLY ZONAL LOOK OVER
OUR AREA TODAY TO A DEEP TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TRANSITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP COLDER AIR TO OUR NORTH WHILE PUMPING MILDER AIR INTO THE
PLAINS.

WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...INDUCING LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES THERE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
GULF MOISTURE HAD WORKED AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE NEAR 50. STRATUS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED IN THIS HIGHER-
MOISTURE REGIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THESE
AREAS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAVE BEGINS MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE OCCURS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY LEADING TO A DRY DAY AND FAIRLY MILD. HAVE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 40S IF NOT LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

A SIMILAR PATTERN TO FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING
FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING COLDER AIR TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE THERE BEFORE SUNRISE THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TAKING MOISTURE AND SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE 40S
EVERYWHERE BUT WOULD EXPECT FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL START HEADING DOWNHILL
AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL
BOOKEND THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY AND THURSDAY.

COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL LOW IN THE DAKOTAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...SWINGING A LOBE OF
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AFFECTING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAY WARM TEMPERATURES TOWARD 40 ON
TUESDAY...BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND TOWARD 0C BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN DROP TO -10C BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO HIGHS IN THE 20S ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS DIVERGE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS SUGGESTING SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEVELOPING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW IN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY DURING THIS TIME...AND SHOWS A POTENTIALLY WARMER
SOLUTION UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT SMALL SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

IT APPEARED LIGHT FOG...MVFR CATEGORY...WAS LESS LIKELY THE REST
OF TONIGHT SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN 06Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS STILL
SEEMED LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTH OR SE OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN
AND MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES THEN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR TOWARD 22/06Z...BUT CHANCES
SEEMED A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE JUST YET. CIGS/VSBYS WERE KEPT
IN MVFR CATEGORY WITH THIS INCREASE IN THE LOWER CLOUDS LATE
FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THEY COULD GO LOWER WHICH COULD
BE ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 210515
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

500 MB PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURED A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH THE PACIFIC...A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BLOCKING RIDGE
FROM WESTERN CANADA NORTHWARD TO ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. OUR AREA
WAS IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY
AS THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD. 12Z NAM SNOWCOVER INITIALIZATION WAS NOT VERY GOOD...SHOWING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN OUR AREA THAN REALITY. SO
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERS FROM THAT MODEL SHOULD BE USED
WITH CAUTION IN THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER IS
GOING TO BE TRICKY. BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD BREAK UP OR
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE A WEAKER WAVE
MOVES OVER MID AMERICA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING LIGHT
PCPN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE FRIDAY
...SO A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THAT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT
TIME SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL STAY OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY STILL LOOKS MESSY AS FAR AS PCPN TYPE GOES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY...SINCE PCPN FALLING WILL BE
IN LIQUID FORM. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG IMPACT EVENT
FOR MOST AREAS...SINCE AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE LIGHT. BUT...IT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITHIN
ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE MISSOURI BORDER IF THEY ARE BELOW FREEZING.
AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR.

ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF MIXED PCPN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY...SO THAT WAS ADDED. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL DECREASE A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRENDED POPS DOWN A BIT
BY LATE AFTERNOON ...BUT DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST THAT IT COULD END UP BEING DRY THOUGH WITH NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND ENSEMBLES ALL START OUT IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N/130W NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN
GENERAL...THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE
DOES DROP OFF BY THAT TIME AS WELL. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT
THINGS LOOKED LIKE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
30S MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THEY WILL SLIDE TOWARD
THE 20S BY THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY TEENS AND
LOWER 20S BUT POSSIBLY A LITTLE COLDER TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

IT APPEARED LIGHT FOG...MVFR CATEGORY...WAS LESS LIKELY THE REST
OF TONIGHT SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN 06Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS STILL
SEEMED LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTH OR SE OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN
AND MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES THEN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR TOWARD 22/06Z...BUT CHANCES
SEEMED A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE JUST YET. CIGS/VSBYS WERE KEPT
IN MVFR CATEGORY WITH THIS INCREASE IN THE LOWER CLOUDS LATE
FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THEY COULD GO LOWER WHICH COULD
BE ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 210515
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

500 MB PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURED A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH THE PACIFIC...A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BLOCKING RIDGE
FROM WESTERN CANADA NORTHWARD TO ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. OUR AREA
WAS IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY
AS THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD. 12Z NAM SNOWCOVER INITIALIZATION WAS NOT VERY GOOD...SHOWING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN OUR AREA THAN REALITY. SO
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERS FROM THAT MODEL SHOULD BE USED
WITH CAUTION IN THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER IS
GOING TO BE TRICKY. BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD BREAK UP OR
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE A WEAKER WAVE
MOVES OVER MID AMERICA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING LIGHT
PCPN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE FRIDAY
...SO A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THAT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT
TIME SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL STAY OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY STILL LOOKS MESSY AS FAR AS PCPN TYPE GOES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY...SINCE PCPN FALLING WILL BE
IN LIQUID FORM. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG IMPACT EVENT
FOR MOST AREAS...SINCE AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE LIGHT. BUT...IT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITHIN
ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE MISSOURI BORDER IF THEY ARE BELOW FREEZING.
AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR.

ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF MIXED PCPN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY...SO THAT WAS ADDED. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL DECREASE A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRENDED POPS DOWN A BIT
BY LATE AFTERNOON ...BUT DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST THAT IT COULD END UP BEING DRY THOUGH WITH NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND ENSEMBLES ALL START OUT IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N/130W NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN
GENERAL...THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE
DOES DROP OFF BY THAT TIME AS WELL. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT
THINGS LOOKED LIKE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
30S MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THEY WILL SLIDE TOWARD
THE 20S BY THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY TEENS AND
LOWER 20S BUT POSSIBLY A LITTLE COLDER TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

IT APPEARED LIGHT FOG...MVFR CATEGORY...WAS LESS LIKELY THE REST
OF TONIGHT SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN 06Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS STILL
SEEMED LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTH OR SE OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN
AND MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES THEN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR TOWARD 22/06Z...BUT CHANCES
SEEMED A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE JUST YET. CIGS/VSBYS WERE KEPT
IN MVFR CATEGORY WITH THIS INCREASE IN THE LOWER CLOUDS LATE
FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THEY COULD GO LOWER WHICH COULD
BE ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 202326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

500 MB PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURED A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH THE PACIFIC...A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BLOCKING RIDGE
FROM WESTERN CANADA NORTHWARD TO ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. OUR AREA
WAS IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY
AS THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD. 12Z NAM SNOWCOVER INITIALIZATION WAS NOT VERY GOOD...SHOWING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN OUR AREA THAN REALITY. SO
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERS FROM THAT MODEL SHOULD BE USED
WITH CAUTION IN THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER IS
GOING TO BE TRICKY. BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD BREAK UP OR
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE A WEAKER WAVE
MOVES OVER MID AMERICA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING LIGHT
PCPN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE FRIDAY
...SO A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THAT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT
TIME SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL STAY OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY STILL LOOKS MESSY AS FAR AS PCPN TYPE GOES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY...SINCE PCPN FALLING WILL BE
IN LIQUID FORM. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG IMPACT EVENT
FOR MOST AREAS...SINCE AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE LIGHT. BUT...IT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITHIN
ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE MISSOURI BORDER IF THEY ARE BELOW FREEZING.
AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR.

ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF MIXED PCPN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY...SO THAT WAS ADDED. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL DECREASE A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRENDED POPS DOWN A BIT
BY LATE AFTERNOON ...BUT DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST THAT IT COULD END UP BEING DRY THOUGH WITH NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND ENSEMBLES ALL START OUT IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N/130W NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN
GENERAL...THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE
DOES DROP OFF BY THAT TIME AS WELL. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT
THINGS LOOKED LIKE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
30S MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THEY WILL SLIDE TOWARD
THE 20S BY THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY TEENS AND
LOWER 20S BUT POSSIBLY A LITTLE COLDER TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WERE JUST NORTHEAST OF KOMA AND KOFK AT 23Z
AND WERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THOSE SITES...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THEY COULD SPREAD BACK IN FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE SERLY LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS...MVFR FOG WAS
POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET COULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KOFK LATER TONIGHT AND THIS WAS
MAINTAINED IN FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...A CONTINUED SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WAS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CIGS BACK ACROSS TAF SITES LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 202115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

500 MB PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURED A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH THE PACIFIC...A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BLOCKING RIDGE
FROM WESTERN CANADA NORTHWARD TO ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. OUR AREA
WAS IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY
AS THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD. 12Z NAM SNOWCOVER INITIALIZATION WAS NOT VERY GOOD...SHOWING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN OUR AREA THAN REALITY. SO
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERS FROM THAT MODEL SHOULD BE USED
WITH CAUTION IN THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER IS
GOING TO BE TRICKY. BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD BREAK UP OR
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE A WEAKER WAVE
MOVES OVER MID AMERICA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING LIGHT
PCPN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE FRIDAY
...SO A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THAT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT
TIME SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL STAY OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY STILL LOOKS MESSY AS FAR AS PCPN TYPE GOES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY...SINCE PCPN FALLING WILL BE
IN LIQUID FORM. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG IMPACT EVENT
FOR MOST AREAS...SINCE AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE LIGHT. BUT...IT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITHIN
ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE MISSOURI BORDER IF THEY ARE BELOW FREEZING.
AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR.

ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF MIXED PCPN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY...SO THAT WAS ADDED. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL DECREASE A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRENDED POPS DOWN A BIT
BY LATE AFTERNOON ...BUT DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST THAT IT COULD END UP BEING DRY THOUGH WITH NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND ENSEMBLES ALL START OUT IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N/130W NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN
GENERAL...THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE
DOES DROP OFF BY THAT TIME AS WELL. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT
THINGS LOOKED LIKE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
30S MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THEY WILL SLIDE TOWARD
THE 20S BY THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY TEENS AND
LOWER 20S BUT POSSIBLY A LITTLE COLDER TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT OFK AND OMA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE LNK
TERMINAL.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LLWS BECOMING AN ISSUE AT OFK BY THE EARLY
HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING.  LLWS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT OMA
AND LNK AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION UNTIL FURTHER
ANALYSIS CAN BE MADE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KG/DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 202115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

500 MB PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURED A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH THE PACIFIC...A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BLOCKING RIDGE
FROM WESTERN CANADA NORTHWARD TO ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. OUR AREA
WAS IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY
AS THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD. 12Z NAM SNOWCOVER INITIALIZATION WAS NOT VERY GOOD...SHOWING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN OUR AREA THAN REALITY. SO
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERS FROM THAT MODEL SHOULD BE USED
WITH CAUTION IN THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER IS
GOING TO BE TRICKY. BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD BREAK UP OR
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE A WEAKER WAVE
MOVES OVER MID AMERICA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING LIGHT
PCPN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE FRIDAY
...SO A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THAT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT
TIME SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL STAY OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES GOING FOR ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY STILL LOOKS MESSY AS FAR AS PCPN TYPE GOES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY...SINCE PCPN FALLING WILL BE
IN LIQUID FORM. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG IMPACT EVENT
FOR MOST AREAS...SINCE AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE LIGHT. BUT...IT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITHIN
ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE MISSOURI BORDER IF THEY ARE BELOW FREEZING.
AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR.

ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF MIXED PCPN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY...SO THAT WAS ADDED. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL DECREASE A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRENDED POPS DOWN A BIT
BY LATE AFTERNOON ...BUT DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST THAT IT COULD END UP BEING DRY THOUGH WITH NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND ENSEMBLES ALL START OUT IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N/130W NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN
GENERAL...THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE
DOES DROP OFF BY THAT TIME AS WELL. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT
THINGS LOOKED LIKE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
30S MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THEY WILL SLIDE TOWARD
THE 20S BY THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY TEENS AND
LOWER 20S BUT POSSIBLY A LITTLE COLDER TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT OFK AND OMA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE LNK
TERMINAL.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LLWS BECOMING AN ISSUE AT OFK BY THE EARLY
HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING.  LLWS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT OMA
AND LNK AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION UNTIL FURTHER
ANALYSIS CAN BE MADE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KG/DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 201734
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A LARGE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE ALLOWING TEMPS TO RADIATE OUT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.

WITH A COLD START TO THE DAY AND LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES TO
THE MID 30S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSES
EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN ACROSS THE CWA BUT PREVIOUS MENTIONED
CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DIMINISHED. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION WE HAD EARLIER. 850MB WARMS AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES TOWARD
THE AREA. THIS COULD CAUSE A BIT OF DRIZZLE IN OUR VERY FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS FORCING INCREASES AS
THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE A FZRA/RA MIX. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER NARROW THAT DOWN WITH THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS. IN ANY CASE...QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH IMPACT AT THIS POINT IF WE DO GET A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF IT...THETA-E RICH AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
LOOK WARM ENOUGH BY THIS POINT TO WHERE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UPON THE EXIT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
A RETURN TO COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SOMEWHAT
OUT OF PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN ON BRINGING A SWATH OF SNOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WIND SPEEDS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DROP INTO THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT OFK AND OMA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE LNK
TERMINAL.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LLWS BECOMING AN ISSUE AT OFK BY THE EARLY
HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING.  LLWS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT OMA
AND LNK AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION UNTIL FURTHER
ANALYSIS CAN BE MADE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...KG/DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 201734
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A LARGE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE ALLOWING TEMPS TO RADIATE OUT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.

WITH A COLD START TO THE DAY AND LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES TO
THE MID 30S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSES
EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN ACROSS THE CWA BUT PREVIOUS MENTIONED
CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DIMINISHED. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION WE HAD EARLIER. 850MB WARMS AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES TOWARD
THE AREA. THIS COULD CAUSE A BIT OF DRIZZLE IN OUR VERY FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS FORCING INCREASES AS
THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE A FZRA/RA MIX. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER NARROW THAT DOWN WITH THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS. IN ANY CASE...QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH IMPACT AT THIS POINT IF WE DO GET A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF IT...THETA-E RICH AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
LOOK WARM ENOUGH BY THIS POINT TO WHERE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UPON THE EXIT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
A RETURN TO COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SOMEWHAT
OUT OF PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN ON BRINGING A SWATH OF SNOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WIND SPEEDS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DROP INTO THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT OFK AND OMA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE LNK
TERMINAL.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LLWS BECOMING AN ISSUE AT OFK BY THE EARLY
HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING.  LLWS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT OMA
AND LNK AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION UNTIL FURTHER
ANALYSIS CAN BE MADE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...KG/DEE




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities