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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251138
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP IN THE CWA BETWEEN
BROADER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYISS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN EASTERN
WY...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 40M ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS NOTED AT MOST LEVELS...INCLUDING 8C+ DEWPOINTS
AT 850MB STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO EASTERN NEB/SD/SOUTHERN
MN. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST KS/OK-TX
PANHANDLES...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN/NORTH CENTRAL
IA.  IN BETWEEN...WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEB WAS NOTED BY
LIGHT WINDS...AND FOG HAD FORMED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND REALLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL...AS MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES. MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD
CLEAR FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE WHILE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.  THIS WOULD
ALLOW SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...WHICH IS INDICATED BY SHORT-
TERM MODELS.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY WEAK ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH THEY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY...PROVIDING A
MORE UNSTABLE PROFILE.  MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION SOMEWHERE AROUND
NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NEB SOMETIME IN THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND
OPENS INTO A TROUGH.  BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED ON THE WEAK SIDE...AT 30-
40KT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE.  ANOTHER POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALIGN WITH
BEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  ALL IN ALL...PLENTY OF CAVEATS...WITH A
SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL THAT RANGES FROM A COUPLE OF EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO A HANDFUL OF SEVERE STORMS. IF LAPSE RATES DID
INCREASE AS PROGGED...THREAT WOULD EXIST FOR HAIL AND WIND...AND
GIVEN SOME CURVE IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...ALSO A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES AS LONG AS STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE-BASED.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.  IN ITS WAKE...WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA. PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FROM THERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE SO FAR THIS SPRING...CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER...AND WHETHER ANY STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE...IS QUITE LOW.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD MEAN THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES COULD AGAIN IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INGREDIENTS TO COME TOGETHER FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SOMEWHERE ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...KOFK AND KOMA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED IN AN AREA
WITH LITTLE WIND. THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
MINNESOTA...AND A MOIST AIRMASS. KLNK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...NIETFELD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251138
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP IN THE CWA BETWEEN
BROADER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYISS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN EASTERN
WY...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 40M ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS NOTED AT MOST LEVELS...INCLUDING 8C+ DEWPOINTS
AT 850MB STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO EASTERN NEB/SD/SOUTHERN
MN. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST KS/OK-TX
PANHANDLES...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN/NORTH CENTRAL
IA.  IN BETWEEN...WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEB WAS NOTED BY
LIGHT WINDS...AND FOG HAD FORMED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND REALLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL...AS MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES. MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD
CLEAR FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE WHILE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.  THIS WOULD
ALLOW SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...WHICH IS INDICATED BY SHORT-
TERM MODELS.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY WEAK ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH THEY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY...PROVIDING A
MORE UNSTABLE PROFILE.  MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION SOMEWHERE AROUND
NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NEB SOMETIME IN THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND
OPENS INTO A TROUGH.  BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED ON THE WEAK SIDE...AT 30-
40KT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE.  ANOTHER POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALIGN WITH
BEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  ALL IN ALL...PLENTY OF CAVEATS...WITH A
SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL THAT RANGES FROM A COUPLE OF EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO A HANDFUL OF SEVERE STORMS. IF LAPSE RATES DID
INCREASE AS PROGGED...THREAT WOULD EXIST FOR HAIL AND WIND...AND
GIVEN SOME CURVE IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...ALSO A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES AS LONG AS STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE-BASED.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.  IN ITS WAKE...WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA. PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FROM THERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE SO FAR THIS SPRING...CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER...AND WHETHER ANY STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE...IS QUITE LOW.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD MEAN THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES COULD AGAIN IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INGREDIENTS TO COME TOGETHER FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SOMEWHERE ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...KOFK AND KOMA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED IN AN AREA
WITH LITTLE WIND. THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
MINNESOTA...AND A MOIST AIRMASS. KLNK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...NIETFELD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250829
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
329 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP IN THE CWA BETWEEN
BROADER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYISS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN EASTERN
WY...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 40M ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS NOTED AT MOST LEVELS...INCLUDING 8C+ DEWPOINTS
AT 850MB STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO EASTERN NEB/SD/SOUTHERN
MN. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST KS/OK-TX
PANHANDLES...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN/NORTH CENTRAL
IA.  IN BETWEEN...WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEB WAS NOTED BY
LIGHT WINDS...AND FOG HAD FORMED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND REALLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL...AS MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES. MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD
CLEAR FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE WHILE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.  THIS WOULD
ALLOW SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...WHICH IS INDICATED BY SHORT-
TERM MODELS.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY WEAK ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH THEY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY...PROVIDING A
MORE UNSTABLE PROFILE.  MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION SOMEWHERE AROUND
NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NEB SOMETIME IN THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND
OPENS INTO A TROUGH.  BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED ON THE WEAK SIDE...AT 30-
40KT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE.  ANOTHER POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALIGN WITH
BEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  ALL IN ALL...PLENTY OF CAVEATS...WITH A
SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL THAT RANGES FROM A COUPLE OF EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO A HANDFUL OF SEVERE STORMS. IF LAPSE RATES DID
INCREASE AS PROGGED...THREAT WOULD EXIST FOR HAIL AND WIND...AND
GIVEN SOME CURVE IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...ALSO A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES AS LONG AS STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE-BASED.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.  IN ITS WAKE...WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA. PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FROM THERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE SO FAR THIS SPRING...CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER...AND WHETHER ANY STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE...IS QUITE LOW.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD MEAN THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES COULD AGAIN IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INGREDIENTS TO COME TOGETHER FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SOMEWHERE ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
WIHT SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND MAINLY AT KLNK AND KOFK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250829
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
329 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP IN THE CWA BETWEEN
BROADER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYISS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN EASTERN
WY...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 40M ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS NOTED AT MOST LEVELS...INCLUDING 8C+ DEWPOINTS
AT 850MB STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO EASTERN NEB/SD/SOUTHERN
MN. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST KS/OK-TX
PANHANDLES...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN/NORTH CENTRAL
IA.  IN BETWEEN...WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEB WAS NOTED BY
LIGHT WINDS...AND FOG HAD FORMED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND REALLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL...AS MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES. MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD
CLEAR FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE WHILE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.  THIS WOULD
ALLOW SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...WHICH IS INDICATED BY SHORT-
TERM MODELS.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY WEAK ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH THEY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY...PROVIDING A
MORE UNSTABLE PROFILE.  MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION SOMEWHERE AROUND
NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NEB SOMETIME IN THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND
OPENS INTO A TROUGH.  BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED ON THE WEAK SIDE...AT 30-
40KT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE.  ANOTHER POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALIGN WITH
BEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  ALL IN ALL...PLENTY OF CAVEATS...WITH A
SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL THAT RANGES FROM A COUPLE OF EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO A HANDFUL OF SEVERE STORMS. IF LAPSE RATES DID
INCREASE AS PROGGED...THREAT WOULD EXIST FOR HAIL AND WIND...AND
GIVEN SOME CURVE IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...ALSO A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES AS LONG AS STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE-BASED.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.  IN ITS WAKE...WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA. PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FROM THERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE SO FAR THIS SPRING...CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER...AND WHETHER ANY STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE...IS QUITE LOW.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD MEAN THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES COULD AGAIN IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INGREDIENTS TO COME TOGETHER FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SOMEWHERE ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
WIHT SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND MAINLY AT KLNK AND KOFK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
WIHT SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND MAINLY AT KLNK AND KOFK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD/DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250259
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
959 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT/CONTINUED
THETA-E ADVECTION/OMEGA...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DEVELOP
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IMPROVING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250259
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
959 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT/CONTINUED
THETA-E ADVECTION/OMEGA...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DEVELOP
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IMPROVING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250259
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
959 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT/CONTINUED
THETA-E ADVECTION/OMEGA...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DEVELOP
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IMPROVING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250207
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS...SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. LATER TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS
AND THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT IS NEAR NORFOLK. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH THESE FEATURES LATER TONIGHT AND BROUGHT CIGS/VSBYS BACK
DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR/IFR. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250207
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS...SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. LATER TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS
AND THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT IS NEAR NORFOLK. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH THESE FEATURES LATER TONIGHT AND BROUGHT CIGS/VSBYS BACK
DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR/IFR. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS...SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. LATER TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS
AND THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT IS NEAR NORFOLK. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH THESE FEATURES LATER TONIGHT AND BROUGHT CIGS/VSBYS BACK
DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR/IFR. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS...SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. LATER TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS
AND THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT IS NEAR NORFOLK. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH THESE FEATURES LATER TONIGHT AND BROUGHT CIGS/VSBYS BACK
DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR/IFR. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS...SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. LATER TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS
AND THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT IS NEAR NORFOLK. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH THESE FEATURES LATER TONIGHT AND BROUGHT CIGS/VSBYS BACK
DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR/IFR. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS...SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. LATER TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS
AND THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT IS NEAR NORFOLK. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH THESE FEATURES LATER TONIGHT AND BROUGHT CIGS/VSBYS BACK
DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR/IFR. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 242014
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.


.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST. MVFR CLOUDS AT KLNK AND IFR AT KOMA/KLNK
COULD VERY WELL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER CEILINGS
POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE AT KOMA/KOFK 03-09Z...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR AT KOFK BY 10Z...THEN BACK TO MVFR
LATER MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 242014
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.


.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST. MVFR CLOUDS AT KLNK AND IFR AT KOMA/KLNK
COULD VERY WELL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER CEILINGS
POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE AT KOMA/KOFK 03-09Z...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR AT KOFK BY 10Z...THEN BACK TO MVFR
LATER MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 241727
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PLAINS HAVE NOT SEEN THIS WET AND ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN
IN A LONG TIME. THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER LOW HAS PULLED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW. THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE RECORD
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AREA 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A SATURATED AIRMASS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WITH OAX AND TOP PW VALUES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THE DAY. AIRMASS
HAS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANY AMOUNT OF VERTICAL MOTION IS
ABLE TO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. THUS HAVE
KEPT POPS HIGH DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON PARTLY DUE TO A SLIGHT DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE
TO THE NON CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STABLE AIRMASS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE NOW EXPECT THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO DRIFT NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SUNSET...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 80. THIS SCENARIO IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAT THE NWP
SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY
LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT POP FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...THE WIDELY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS... AND POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL IN THIS PATTERN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE STILL MAINTAINED A CHANCE
OR HIGHER POP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME FACTORS THAT ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER DISTINCT WAVE MOVING UP
THROUGH KANSAS...SO POPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT FOR SOME
HOURS. AGAIN...LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

BY MONDAY THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BUT MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW. POPS
GRADUALLY TREND FROM CHANCE TO 10-15 PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY BE DOMINATED
BY A SHORT-LIVED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY AND
MILD WITH WELCOMED SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY THE NEXT WESTERN US UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MORE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST. MVFR CLOUDS AT KLNK AND IFR AT KOMA/KLNK
COULD VERY WELL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER CEILINGS
POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE AT KOMA/KOFK 03-09Z...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR AT KOFK BY 10Z...THEN BACK TO MVFR
LATER MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241727
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PLAINS HAVE NOT SEEN THIS WET AND ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN
IN A LONG TIME. THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER LOW HAS PULLED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW. THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE RECORD
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AREA 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A SATURATED AIRMASS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WITH OAX AND TOP PW VALUES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THE DAY. AIRMASS
HAS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANY AMOUNT OF VERTICAL MOTION IS
ABLE TO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. THUS HAVE
KEPT POPS HIGH DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON PARTLY DUE TO A SLIGHT DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE
TO THE NON CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STABLE AIRMASS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE NOW EXPECT THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO DRIFT NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SUNSET...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 80. THIS SCENARIO IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAT THE NWP
SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY
LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT POP FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...THE WIDELY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS... AND POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL IN THIS PATTERN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE STILL MAINTAINED A CHANCE
OR HIGHER POP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME FACTORS THAT ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER DISTINCT WAVE MOVING UP
THROUGH KANSAS...SO POPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT FOR SOME
HOURS. AGAIN...LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

BY MONDAY THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BUT MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW. POPS
GRADUALLY TREND FROM CHANCE TO 10-15 PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY BE DOMINATED
BY A SHORT-LIVED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY AND
MILD WITH WELCOMED SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY THE NEXT WESTERN US UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MORE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST. MVFR CLOUDS AT KLNK AND IFR AT KOMA/KLNK
COULD VERY WELL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER CEILINGS
POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE AT KOMA/KOFK 03-09Z...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR AT KOFK BY 10Z...THEN BACK TO MVFR
LATER MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 241217
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
717 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...TIMING PERIODS OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES...

THE PLAINS HAVE NOT SEEN THIS WET AND ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN
IN A LONG TIME. THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER LOW HAS PULLED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW. THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE RECORD
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AREA 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A SATURATED AIRMASS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WITH OAX AND TOP PW VALUES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THE DAY. AIRMASS
HAS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANY AMOUNT OF VERTICAL MOTION IS
ABLE TO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. THUS HAVE
KEPT POPS HIGH DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON PARTLY DUE TO A SLIGHT DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE
TO THE NON CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STABLE AIRMASS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE NOW EXPECT THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO DRIFT NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SUNSET...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 80. THIS SCENARIO IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAT THE NWP
SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY
LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT POP FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...THE WIDELY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS... AND POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL IN THIS PATTERN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE STILL MAINTAINED A CHANCE
OR HIGHER POP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME FACTORS THAT ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER DISTINCT WAVE MOVING UP
THROUGH KANSAS...SO POPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT FOR SOME
HOURS. AGAIN...LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

BY MONDAY THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BUT MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW. POPS
GRADUALLY TREND FROM CHANCE TO 10-15 PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY BE DOMINATED
BY A SHORT-LIVED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY AND
MILD WITH WELCOMED SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY THE NEXT WESTERN US UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MORE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME VFR AT KLNK
AFTER 06Z. IFR AND FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AT KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241217
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
717 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...TIMING PERIODS OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES...

THE PLAINS HAVE NOT SEEN THIS WET AND ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN
IN A LONG TIME. THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER LOW HAS PULLED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW. THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE RECORD
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AREA 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A SATURATED AIRMASS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WITH OAX AND TOP PW VALUES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THE DAY. AIRMASS
HAS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANY AMOUNT OF VERTICAL MOTION IS
ABLE TO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. THUS HAVE
KEPT POPS HIGH DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON PARTLY DUE TO A SLIGHT DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE
TO THE NON CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STABLE AIRMASS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE NOW EXPECT THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO DRIFT NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SUNSET...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 80. THIS SCENARIO IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAT THE NWP
SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY
LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT POP FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...THE WIDELY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS... AND POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL IN THIS PATTERN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE STILL MAINTAINED A CHANCE
OR HIGHER POP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME FACTORS THAT ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER DISTINCT WAVE MOVING UP
THROUGH KANSAS...SO POPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT FOR SOME
HOURS. AGAIN...LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

BY MONDAY THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BUT MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW. POPS
GRADUALLY TREND FROM CHANCE TO 10-15 PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY BE DOMINATED
BY A SHORT-LIVED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY AND
MILD WITH WELCOMED SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY THE NEXT WESTERN US UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MORE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME VFR AT KLNK
AFTER 06Z. IFR AND FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AT KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240926
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
426 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...TIMING PERIODS OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES...

THE PLAINS HAVE NOT SEEN THIS WET AND ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN
IN A LONG TIME. THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER LOW HAS PULLED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW. THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE RECORD
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AREA 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A SATURATED AIRMASS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WITH OAX AND TOP PW VALUES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THE DAY. AIRMASS
HAS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANY AMOUNT OF VERTICAL MOTION IS
ABLE TO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. THUS HAVE
KEPT POPS HIGH DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON PARTLY DUE TO A SLIGHT DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE
TO THE NON CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STABLE AIRMASS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE NOW EXPECT THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO DRIFT NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SUNSET...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 80. THIS SCENARIO IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAT THE NWP
SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY
LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT POP FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...THE WIDELY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS... AND POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL IN THIS PATTERN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE STILL MAINTAINED A CHANCE
OR HIGHER POP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME FACTORS THAT ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER DISTINCT WAVE MOVING UP
THROUGH KANSAS...SO POPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT FOR SOME
HOURS. AGAIN...LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

BY MONDAY THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BUT MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW. POPS
GRADUALLY TREND FROM CHANCE TO 10-15 PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY BE DOMINATED
BY A SHORT-LIVED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY AND
MILD WITH WELCOMED SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY THE NEXT WESTERN US UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MORE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.FOR NOW INCLUDED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KOMA WITH INCREASING 45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONTINUED LIFT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THIS IS A RELATIVELY MOIST PATTERN...THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.

MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND THE EXPECTED RUNOFF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT PREDICTED TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MORE PRECISE RAINFALL RATES...DURATIONS...
AND AMOUNTS ARE DETERMINED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
HYDROLOGY...NIETFELD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240926
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
426 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...TIMING PERIODS OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES...

THE PLAINS HAVE NOT SEEN THIS WET AND ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN
IN A LONG TIME. THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER LOW HAS PULLED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW. THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE RECORD
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AREA 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A SATURATED AIRMASS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WITH OAX AND TOP PW VALUES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THE DAY. AIRMASS
HAS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANY AMOUNT OF VERTICAL MOTION IS
ABLE TO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. THUS HAVE
KEPT POPS HIGH DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON PARTLY DUE TO A SLIGHT DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE
TO THE NON CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STABLE AIRMASS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE NOW EXPECT THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO DRIFT NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SUNSET...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH
AS INTERSTATE 80. THIS SCENARIO IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAT THE NWP
SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY
LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT POP FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...THE WIDELY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS... AND POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL IN THIS PATTERN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE STILL MAINTAINED A CHANCE
OR HIGHER POP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THE CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME FACTORS THAT ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER DISTINCT WAVE MOVING UP
THROUGH KANSAS...SO POPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT FOR SOME
HOURS. AGAIN...LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

BY MONDAY THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BUT MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW. POPS
GRADUALLY TREND FROM CHANCE TO 10-15 PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY BE DOMINATED
BY A SHORT-LIVED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY AND
MILD WITH WELCOMED SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY THE NEXT WESTERN US UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MORE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.FOR NOW INCLUDED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KOMA WITH INCREASING 45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONTINUED LIFT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THIS IS A RELATIVELY MOIST PATTERN...THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.

MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND THE EXPECTED RUNOFF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT PREDICTED TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MORE PRECISE RAINFALL RATES...DURATIONS...
AND AMOUNTS ARE DETERMINED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
HYDROLOGY...NIETFELD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240403
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TONIGHT

REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.

COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.FOR NOW INCLUDED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KOMA WITH INCREASING 45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONTINUED LIFT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240403
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TONIGHT

REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.

COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.FOR NOW INCLUDED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KOMA WITH INCREASING 45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONTINUED LIFT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240403
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TONIGHT

REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.

COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.FOR NOW INCLUDED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KOMA WITH INCREASING 45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONTINUED LIFT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 232344
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TONIGHT

REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.

COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY IFR/LIFR CIGS IN AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. MAIN AREA OF ORGANIZED RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAFS. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW BACKS. STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAFS SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER
UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR WEST THESE WILL EXTEND.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY





000
FXUS63 KOAX 232344
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TONIGHT

REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.

COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY IFR/LIFR CIGS IN AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. MAIN AREA OF ORGANIZED RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAFS. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW BACKS. STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAFS SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER
UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR WEST THESE WILL EXTEND.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 232006
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TONIGHT

REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.

COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING TSRA/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LIFTING THRU
KS AND INTO S-CNTRL NEB. EXPECT THE PCPN ACTIVITY TO REACH ERN NEB
LATE THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AT ALL TAF SITES.
AT THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU ABOUT 12Z SUN MORNING...THEN
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TWD 18Z SUN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 232006
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TONIGHT

REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.

COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING TSRA/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LIFTING THRU
KS AND INTO S-CNTRL NEB. EXPECT THE PCPN ACTIVITY TO REACH ERN NEB
LATE THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AT ALL TAF SITES.
AT THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU ABOUT 12Z SUN MORNING...THEN
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TWD 18Z SUN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 231726
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE MORE LIKELY PERIODS OF RAIN...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE ROCKIES.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS TELLING...IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES
REGIONS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CHURNS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT 06Z. LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO PENNSYLVANIA IN THE PAST
24 HOURS...WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALBEIT WEAK. MOISTURE RETURN HAS
BEEN STEADY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER.

THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILE AND NUMEROUS SOURCES OF
VERTICAL MOTION. THE BIG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL AS IT MEANDERS NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO...BUT THIS
AREA SHOULD MOVE QUITE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...WAITING FOR THE SHOWERS TO THE
WEST TO ARRIVE AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS...THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS RAIN
TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL BE AIDED BY A
30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK HIGH...IN THE 70-90 PERCENT
RANGE.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOST MODELS STILL PULL A DRY SLOT NORTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION IN
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. POPS ARE TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY EAST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE POP FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WE CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WE FINALLY HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BUT
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TROF MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND RETURNING MOISTURE IS CAUSE FOR CHANCE POPS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING TSRA/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LIFTING THRU
KS AND INTO S-CNTRL NEB. EXPECT THE PCPN ACTIVITY TO REACH ERN NEB
LATE THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AT ALL TAF SITES.
AT THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU ABOUT 12Z SUN MORNING...THEN
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TWD 18Z SUN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 231726
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE MORE LIKELY PERIODS OF RAIN...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE ROCKIES.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS TELLING...IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES
REGIONS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CHURNS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT 06Z. LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO PENNSYLVANIA IN THE PAST
24 HOURS...WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALBEIT WEAK. MOISTURE RETURN HAS
BEEN STEADY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER.

THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILE AND NUMEROUS SOURCES OF
VERTICAL MOTION. THE BIG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL AS IT MEANDERS NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO...BUT THIS
AREA SHOULD MOVE QUITE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...WAITING FOR THE SHOWERS TO THE
WEST TO ARRIVE AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS...THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS RAIN
TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL BE AIDED BY A
30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK HIGH...IN THE 70-90 PERCENT
RANGE.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOST MODELS STILL PULL A DRY SLOT NORTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION IN
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. POPS ARE TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY EAST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE POP FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WE CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WE FINALLY HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BUT
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TROF MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND RETURNING MOISTURE IS CAUSE FOR CHANCE POPS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING TSRA/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LIFTING THRU
KS AND INTO S-CNTRL NEB. EXPECT THE PCPN ACTIVITY TO REACH ERN NEB
LATE THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AT ALL TAF SITES.
AT THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU ABOUT 12Z SUN MORNING...THEN
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TWD 18Z SUN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231206
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
706 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE MORE LIKELY PERIODS OF RAIN...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE ROCKIES.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS TELLING...IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES
REGIONS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CHURNS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT 06Z. LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO PENNSYLVANIA IN THE PAST
24 HOURS...WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALBEIT WEAK. MOISTURE RETURN HAS
BEEN STEADY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER.

THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILE AND NUMEROUS SOURCES OF
VERTICAL MOTION. THE BIG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL AS IT MEANDERS NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO...BUT THIS
AREA SHOULD MOVE QUITE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...WAITING FOR THE SHOWERS TO THE
WEST TO ARRIVE AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS...THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS RAIN
TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL BE AIDED BY A
30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK HIGH...IN THE 70-90 PERCENT
RANGE.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOST MODELS STILL PULL A DRY SLOT NORTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION IN
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. POPS ARE TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY EAST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE POP FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WE CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WE FINALLY HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BUT
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TROF MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND RETURNING MOISTURE IS CAUSE FOR CHANCE POPS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TODAY AND BECOME MVFR AT KOFK...KLNK
AND KOMA BY 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ENTERING THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 231206
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
706 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE MORE LIKELY PERIODS OF RAIN...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE ROCKIES.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS TELLING...IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES
REGIONS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CHURNS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT 06Z. LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO PENNSYLVANIA IN THE PAST
24 HOURS...WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALBEIT WEAK. MOISTURE RETURN HAS
BEEN STEADY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER.

THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILE AND NUMEROUS SOURCES OF
VERTICAL MOTION. THE BIG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL AS IT MEANDERS NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO...BUT THIS
AREA SHOULD MOVE QUITE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...WAITING FOR THE SHOWERS TO THE
WEST TO ARRIVE AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS...THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS RAIN
TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL BE AIDED BY A
30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK HIGH...IN THE 70-90 PERCENT
RANGE.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOST MODELS STILL PULL A DRY SLOT NORTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION IN
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. POPS ARE TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY EAST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE POP FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WE CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WE FINALLY HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BUT
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TROF MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND RETURNING MOISTURE IS CAUSE FOR CHANCE POPS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TODAY AND BECOME MVFR AT KOFK...KLNK
AND KOMA BY 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ENTERING THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230820
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE MORE LIKELY PERIODS OF RAIN...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE ROCKIES.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS TELLING...IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES
REGIONS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CHURNS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT 06Z. LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO PENNSYLVANIA IN THE PAST
24 HOURS...WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALBEIT WEAK. MOISTURE RETURN HAS
BEEN STEADY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER.

THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILE AND NUMEROUS SOURCES OF
VERTICAL MOTION. THE BIG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL AS IT MEANDERS NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO...BUT THIS
AREA SHOULD MOVE QUITE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...WAITING FOR THE SHOWERS TO THE
WEST TO ARRIVE AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS...THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS RAIN
TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL BE AIDED BY A
30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK HIGH...IN THE 70-90 PERCENT
RANGE.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOST MODELS STILL PULL A DRY SLOT NORTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION IN
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. POPS ARE TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY EAST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE POP FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WE CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WE FINALLY HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BUT
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TROF MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND RETURNING MOISTURE IS CAUSE FOR CHANCE POPS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH 12Z BUT
WILL PROBABLY TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY SATURDAY MORNING. PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE WITH SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY. IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY AT KOFK AND KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230820
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE MORE LIKELY PERIODS OF RAIN...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE ROCKIES.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS TELLING...IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES
REGIONS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CHURNS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT 06Z. LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO PENNSYLVANIA IN THE PAST
24 HOURS...WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALBEIT WEAK. MOISTURE RETURN HAS
BEEN STEADY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER.

THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILE AND NUMEROUS SOURCES OF
VERTICAL MOTION. THE BIG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL AS IT MEANDERS NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO...BUT THIS
AREA SHOULD MOVE QUITE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...WAITING FOR THE SHOWERS TO THE
WEST TO ARRIVE AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS...THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS RAIN
TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL BE AIDED BY A
30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK HIGH...IN THE 70-90 PERCENT
RANGE.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOST MODELS STILL PULL A DRY SLOT NORTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION IN
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. POPS ARE TAPERED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY EAST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE POP FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WE CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WE FINALLY HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BUT
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TROF MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND RETURNING MOISTURE IS CAUSE FOR CHANCE POPS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH 12Z BUT
WILL PROBABLY TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY SATURDAY MORNING. PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE WITH SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY. IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY AT KOFK AND KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230450
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

EVENING UPDATES HAVE MAINLY BEEN TO TWEAK POPS WITH BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA...LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA AND OTHER SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. BETTER FORCING
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW AND
DEEPENING OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER THETA-E ADVECTION/WARM
ADVECTION...HI RES NMM TREND SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO MENTION FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH 12Z BUT
WILL PROBABLY TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY SATURDAY MORNING. PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE WITH SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY. IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY AT KOFK AND KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230450
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

EVENING UPDATES HAVE MAINLY BEEN TO TWEAK POPS WITH BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA...LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA AND OTHER SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. BETTER FORCING
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW AND
DEEPENING OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER THETA-E ADVECTION/WARM
ADVECTION...HI RES NMM TREND SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO MENTION FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH 12Z BUT
WILL PROBABLY TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY SATURDAY MORNING. PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE WITH SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY. IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY AT KOFK AND KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230302
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1002 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

EVENING UPDATES HAVE MAINLY BEEN TO TWEAK POPS WITH BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA...LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA AND OTHER SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. BETTER FORCING
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW AND
DEEPENING OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER THETA-E ADVECTION/WARM
ADVECTION...HIRESNMM TREND SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DO MENTION FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. VSBYS IN THE PCPN MAY DROP
DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR ON SATURDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230302
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1002 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

EVENING UPDATES HAVE MAINLY BEEN TO TWEAK POPS WITH BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA...LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA AND OTHER SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. BETTER FORCING
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW AND
DEEPENING OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER THETA-E ADVECTION/WARM
ADVECTION...HIRESNMM TREND SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DO MENTION FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. VSBYS IN THE PCPN MAY DROP
DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR ON SATURDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230302
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1002 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

EVENING UPDATES HAVE MAINLY BEEN TO TWEAK POPS WITH BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA...LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA AND OTHER SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. BETTER FORCING
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW AND
DEEPENING OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER THETA-E ADVECTION/WARM
ADVECTION...HIRESNMM TREND SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DO MENTION FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. VSBYS IN THE PCPN MAY DROP
DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR ON SATURDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. VSBYS IN THE PCPN MAY DROP
DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 222324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. VSBYS IN THE PCPN MAY DROP
DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. VSBYS IN THE PCPN MAY DROP
DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 222324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. VSBYS IN THE PCPN MAY DROP
DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222013
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS SETTLING
INTO THE TAF SITES SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION GIVEN AREAL COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
THEN THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222013
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TONIGHT

LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN
ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN
TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID
70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS SETTLING
INTO THE TAF SITES SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION GIVEN AREAL COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
THEN THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 221746
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...TIMING WET AND DRY PERIODS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE
BLOCKY RIDGE EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST CANADA/ALASKA WITH SLOW
MOVING CLOSED LOWS AND SHORTWAVES DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY AND INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE TO TRANSPORTING HIGH AMOUNTS OF WATER VAPOR FROM THE SUB
TROPICS INTO THE SOUTHERN US AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE PERIODS OF FAIRLY
LIGHT RAIN THAT IS GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL AND KEEP RAINFALL SOMEWHAT
LIGHT. THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE MOST LIKELY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THE DRY GAPS BETWEEN THEM.

FIRST ROUND SHOULD BE TIED TO A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH COLORADO PER WATER VAPOR LOOP. THERE IS ALREADY A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM COLORADO EAST
AND SOUTH WITH LEADING EDGE NEAR DODGE CITY...MOVING THIS
DIRECTION. INITIALLY THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIMIT RAIN UNTIL AIR BECOMES MORE SATURATED. MIGHT BE CLOSER
TO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOST OF THE AREA SEES RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE PERIODS WITH THIS RAIN
MOVING THROUGH. BY EARLY SUNDAY MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH COLORADO AND
WYOMING...WHICH WILL PULL A DRY SLOT INTO THE PLAINS. IF THIS
HAPPENS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD END FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NEBRASKA COUNTIES. IOWA COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AGAIN...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER AN INCH FOR THE WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...MUCH OF
THIS RAIN SHOULD BE SANS THUNDER.

SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL WITH RAIN IN THE AREA...BUT
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IF THE DRY SLOT BRINGS MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MONDAY THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA-MONTANA BORDER AREA...BUT
DISAGREEMENT ON QPF. ALL MODELS HINT AT SOME QPF DURING THE WEEK
AS MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY AND INTO THE WEEK. LOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE TUE AND WED SO REDUCED POPS A BIT THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS SETTLING
INTO THE TAF SITES SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION GIVEN AREAL COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
THEN THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221746
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...TIMING WET AND DRY PERIODS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE
BLOCKY RIDGE EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST CANADA/ALASKA WITH SLOW
MOVING CLOSED LOWS AND SHORTWAVES DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY AND INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE TO TRANSPORTING HIGH AMOUNTS OF WATER VAPOR FROM THE SUB
TROPICS INTO THE SOUTHERN US AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE PERIODS OF FAIRLY
LIGHT RAIN THAT IS GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL AND KEEP RAINFALL SOMEWHAT
LIGHT. THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE MOST LIKELY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THE DRY GAPS BETWEEN THEM.

FIRST ROUND SHOULD BE TIED TO A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH COLORADO PER WATER VAPOR LOOP. THERE IS ALREADY A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM COLORADO EAST
AND SOUTH WITH LEADING EDGE NEAR DODGE CITY...MOVING THIS
DIRECTION. INITIALLY THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIMIT RAIN UNTIL AIR BECOMES MORE SATURATED. MIGHT BE CLOSER
TO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOST OF THE AREA SEES RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE PERIODS WITH THIS RAIN
MOVING THROUGH. BY EARLY SUNDAY MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH COLORADO AND
WYOMING...WHICH WILL PULL A DRY SLOT INTO THE PLAINS. IF THIS
HAPPENS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD END FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NEBRASKA COUNTIES. IOWA COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AGAIN...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER AN INCH FOR THE WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...MUCH OF
THIS RAIN SHOULD BE SANS THUNDER.

SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL WITH RAIN IN THE AREA...BUT
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IF THE DRY SLOT BRINGS MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MONDAY THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA-MONTANA BORDER AREA...BUT
DISAGREEMENT ON QPF. ALL MODELS HINT AT SOME QPF DURING THE WEEK
AS MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY AND INTO THE WEEK. LOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE TUE AND WED SO REDUCED POPS A BIT THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS SETTLING
INTO THE TAF SITES SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION GIVEN AREAL COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
THEN THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 221746
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...TIMING WET AND DRY PERIODS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE
BLOCKY RIDGE EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST CANADA/ALASKA WITH SLOW
MOVING CLOSED LOWS AND SHORTWAVES DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY AND INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE TO TRANSPORTING HIGH AMOUNTS OF WATER VAPOR FROM THE SUB
TROPICS INTO THE SOUTHERN US AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE PERIODS OF FAIRLY
LIGHT RAIN THAT IS GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL AND KEEP RAINFALL SOMEWHAT
LIGHT. THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE MOST LIKELY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THE DRY GAPS BETWEEN THEM.

FIRST ROUND SHOULD BE TIED TO A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH COLORADO PER WATER VAPOR LOOP. THERE IS ALREADY A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM COLORADO EAST
AND SOUTH WITH LEADING EDGE NEAR DODGE CITY...MOVING THIS
DIRECTION. INITIALLY THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIMIT RAIN UNTIL AIR BECOMES MORE SATURATED. MIGHT BE CLOSER
TO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOST OF THE AREA SEES RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE PERIODS WITH THIS RAIN
MOVING THROUGH. BY EARLY SUNDAY MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH COLORADO AND
WYOMING...WHICH WILL PULL A DRY SLOT INTO THE PLAINS. IF THIS
HAPPENS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD END FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NEBRASKA COUNTIES. IOWA COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AGAIN...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER AN INCH FOR THE WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...MUCH OF
THIS RAIN SHOULD BE SANS THUNDER.

SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL WITH RAIN IN THE AREA...BUT
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IF THE DRY SLOT BRINGS MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MONDAY THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA-MONTANA BORDER AREA...BUT
DISAGREEMENT ON QPF. ALL MODELS HINT AT SOME QPF DURING THE WEEK
AS MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY AND INTO THE WEEK. LOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE TUE AND WED SO REDUCED POPS A BIT THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS SETTLING
INTO THE TAF SITES SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION GIVEN AREAL COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
THEN THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 221746
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...TIMING WET AND DRY PERIODS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE
BLOCKY RIDGE EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST CANADA/ALASKA WITH SLOW
MOVING CLOSED LOWS AND SHORTWAVES DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY AND INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE TO TRANSPORTING HIGH AMOUNTS OF WATER VAPOR FROM THE SUB
TROPICS INTO THE SOUTHERN US AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE PLAINS AND
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE PERIODS OF FAIRLY
LIGHT RAIN THAT IS GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL AND KEEP RAINFALL SOMEWHAT
LIGHT. THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE MOST LIKELY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THE DRY GAPS BETWEEN THEM.

FIRST ROUND SHOULD BE TIED TO A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH COLORADO PER WATER VAPOR LOOP. THERE IS ALREADY A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM COLORADO EAST
AND SOUTH WITH LEADING EDGE NEAR DODGE CITY...MOVING THIS
DIRECTION. INITIALLY THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIMIT RAIN UNTIL AIR BECOMES MORE SATURATED. MIGHT BE CLOSER
TO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOST OF THE AREA SEES RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE PERIODS WITH THIS RAIN
MOVING THROUGH. BY EARLY SUNDAY MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH COLORADO AND
WYOMING...WHICH WILL PULL A DRY SLOT INTO THE PLAINS. IF THIS
HAPPENS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD END FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR NEBRASKA COUNTIES. IOWA COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AGAIN...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER AN INCH FOR THE WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...MUCH OF
THIS RAIN SHOULD BE SANS THUNDER.

SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL WITH RAIN IN THE AREA...BUT
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IF THE DRY SLOT BRINGS MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MONDAY THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA-MONTANA BORDER AREA...BUT
DISAGREEMENT ON QPF. ALL MODELS HINT AT SOME QPF DURING THE WEEK
AS MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY AND INTO THE WEEK. LOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE TUE AND WED SO REDUCED POPS A BIT THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS SETTLING
INTO THE TAF SITES SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION GIVEN AREAL COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
THEN THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE




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