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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302338
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 06Z COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KOFK. THEN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOSE TO TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 302338
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 06Z COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KOFK. THEN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOSE TO TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
116 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
116 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301116
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REGIONAL OBS/IR SATL INDICATING BATCH OF LLVL CIGS SITUATED OVER
ERN SD WAS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SWD INTO ERN NEB THIS MORNING. GIVEN
MOVEMENT TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT BRIEF PD OF
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS MORNING AT KOFK/KOMA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. FOR KLNK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THERE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301116
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REGIONAL OBS/IR SATL INDICATING BATCH OF LLVL CIGS SITUATED OVER
ERN SD WAS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SWD INTO ERN NEB THIS MORNING. GIVEN
MOVEMENT TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT BRIEF PD OF
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS MORNING AT KOFK/KOMA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. FOR KLNK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THERE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300456
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300456
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCE THEY
WILL AFFECT KOFK OR KOMA. THEN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WHEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
IN. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS AT 1SM ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z AND
15Z AT ALL TAF SITES. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST AFTER 05Z WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z
AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND CIGS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOPING 14Z-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z
AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND CIGS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOPING 14Z-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291758
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1258 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z
AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND CIGS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOPING 14Z-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 291158
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
658 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING MID LVL CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB THIS
MORNING WITH -SHRA MOVING NWD OUT OF ERN KS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS TO KOMA/KLNK. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM NW IA TO CNTRL KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN. AREAL COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION AT
THIS POINT...THUS OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291158
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
658 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING MID LVL CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB THIS
MORNING WITH -SHRA MOVING NWD OUT OF ERN KS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS TO KOMA/KLNK. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM NW IA TO CNTRL KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN. AREAL COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION AT
THIS POINT...THUS OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290825
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290825
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 290440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND
IMPACT ON TAF SITES IS THE MAIN PROBLEM. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AT KLNK 07-11Z AND KOMA 08-12Z. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS BECOME MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK. SHOULD
BE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT KOMA 16-22Z TOMORROW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND
IMPACT ON TAF SITES IS THE MAIN PROBLEM. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AT KLNK 07-11Z AND KOMA 08-12Z. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS BECOME MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK. SHOULD
BE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT KOMA 16-22Z TOMORROW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 282034
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SO HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF -SHRA WITH AMENDMENTS NEEDED ONCE
THUNDER LOOKS IMMINENT. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SO HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF -SHRA WITH AMENDMENTS NEEDED ONCE
THUNDER LOOKS IMMINENT. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SO HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF -SHRA WITH AMENDMENTS NEEDED ONCE
THUNDER LOOKS IMMINENT. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 281143
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE WILL FILL BACK IN ALONG THE KLNK TO KOMA
CORRIDOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LIKELY
BUBBLE UP AFTER 20Z. THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. AFTER
00Z THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER
GENERALLY LOWERING CIGS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE LIKELY BY 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281143
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE WILL FILL BACK IN ALONG THE KLNK TO KOMA
CORRIDOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LIKELY
BUBBLE UP AFTER 20Z. THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. AFTER
00Z THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER
GENERALLY LOWERING CIGS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE LIKELY BY 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280847
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
347 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY MESSY AND COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST SETTING UP WITH IFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TRIED TO TIME THE STORMS
AT ANY LOCATION TO A 4 HOUR WINDOW...08-12Z AT KLNK/KOMA AND
10-14Z AT KOMA. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT KLNK/KOMA BY 20-24Z DURING PEAK HEATING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280847
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
347 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY MESSY AND COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST SETTING UP WITH IFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TRIED TO TIME THE STORMS
AT ANY LOCATION TO A 4 HOUR WINDOW...08-12Z AT KLNK/KOMA AND
10-14Z AT KOMA. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT KLNK/KOMA BY 20-24Z DURING PEAK HEATING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AFTER SEEING REPORTS OF 3+ INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE HEAVY CLUSTER
OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BASED ON TRAJECTORIES OF
ONGOING PRECIP AND HRRR/RAP MODELS AS A 2+ PW BULLSEYE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
HEAVY RAINS THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 60 KT
H3 JET AND 30-40 M H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOV NEWD OVER THE SHORT
TERM BRINGING CONTD PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. PERSISTENT 850-700 MB WAA ACTING THE ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN FOR MAINLY ALONG AND E
OF THE RIVER. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
AREA OF RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN BY EVENING AS THE BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. THUS WILL INITIALLY FOCUS THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WRN FA IN THE EVNG. THIS FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL AND WRN NEB
THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CAMS...INDC THAT AN
ORGANIZED MCS WILL TRACK EWD INTO ERN NEB AND WESTERN
IOWA...MAINLY AS WE GET TOWARD LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF SAID
SYSTEM AND THUS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL WITH MODEL
SOLUTION RANGING FROM THE NRN TO SRN CWA. CURRENTLY FEELING IS
THAT THE AREA BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 20 WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
AREA. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
GIVEN THE 1.8-2.0 IN PWATS AND CLOUD BEARING SW UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW LEADING TO BACKBUILDING. THUS WILL CONT TO MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. FF GUIDANCE INDCS THAT DESPITE SPOTTY
HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST TWO NIGHTS THAT MOST AREAS OF THE CWA CAN
STILL TAKE A GOOD RAINFALL BEFORE MORE THAN ISO FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR. THUS WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM. OF
COURSE THERE ARE A COUPLE OF NARROW CORRIDORS OF THE CWA THAT ARE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT RAINS...AND THESE WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ONCE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE MCS INCREASES A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONT INTO THU MORNING WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THE
MCS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE RIVER AT THAT TIME. BY MID
TO LATE MORNING THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE OPENING UP ON THU WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF A CAPPING INVERSION...FAVORABLE LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WE SHOULD
SEE STORMS REDEVELOP ON THU AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CTNRL AND
ERN FA. THESE WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU NIGHT BUT BY THIS TIME THE
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY THEN. THIS PATTERN MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ON FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ONLY A QUICK BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/CDFNT WILL QUICKLY MOV INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS PRETTY DYNAMIC AND MAY LEAD
TO SOME SVR WX FOR SUN ACRS THE CWA AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC
OUTLOOKS. OTHERWISE ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED SHOULD SEE
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MON NIGHT THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY MESSY AND COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST SETTING UP WITH IFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TRIED TO TIME THE STORMS
AT ANY LOCATION TO A 4 HOUR WINDOW...08-12Z AT KLNK/KOMA AND
10-14Z AT KOMA. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT KLNK/KOMA BY 20-24Z DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 280445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AFTER SEEING REPORTS OF 3+ INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE HEAVY CLUSTER
OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BASED ON TRAJECTORIES OF
ONGOING PRECIP AND HRRR/RAP MODELS AS A 2+ PW BULLSEYE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
HEAVY RAINS THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 60 KT
H3 JET AND 30-40 M H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOV NEWD OVER THE SHORT
TERM BRINGING CONTD PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. PERSISTENT 850-700 MB WAA ACTING THE ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN FOR MAINLY ALONG AND E
OF THE RIVER. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
AREA OF RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN BY EVENING AS THE BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. THUS WILL INITIALLY FOCUS THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WRN FA IN THE EVNG. THIS FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL AND WRN NEB
THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CAMS...INDC THAT AN
ORGANIZED MCS WILL TRACK EWD INTO ERN NEB AND WESTERN
IOWA...MAINLY AS WE GET TOWARD LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF SAID
SYSTEM AND THUS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL WITH MODEL
SOLUTION RANGING FROM THE NRN TO SRN CWA. CURRENTLY FEELING IS
THAT THE AREA BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 20 WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
AREA. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
GIVEN THE 1.8-2.0 IN PWATS AND CLOUD BEARING SW UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW LEADING TO BACKBUILDING. THUS WILL CONT TO MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. FF GUIDANCE INDCS THAT DESPITE SPOTTY
HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST TWO NIGHTS THAT MOST AREAS OF THE CWA CAN
STILL TAKE A GOOD RAINFALL BEFORE MORE THAN ISO FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR. THUS WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM. OF
COURSE THERE ARE A COUPLE OF NARROW CORRIDORS OF THE CWA THAT ARE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT RAINS...AND THESE WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ONCE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE MCS INCREASES A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONT INTO THU MORNING WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THE
MCS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE RIVER AT THAT TIME. BY MID
TO LATE MORNING THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE OPENING UP ON THU WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF A CAPPING INVERSION...FAVORABLE LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WE SHOULD
SEE STORMS REDEVELOP ON THU AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CTNRL AND
ERN FA. THESE WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU NIGHT BUT BY THIS TIME THE
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY THEN. THIS PATTERN MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ON FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ONLY A QUICK BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/CDFNT WILL QUICKLY MOV INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS PRETTY DYNAMIC AND MAY LEAD
TO SOME SVR WX FOR SUN ACRS THE CWA AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC
OUTLOOKS. OTHERWISE ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED SHOULD SEE
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MON NIGHT THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY MESSY AND COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST SETTING UP WITH IFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TRIED TO TIME THE STORMS
AT ANY LOCATION TO A 4 HOUR WINDOW...08-12Z AT KLNK/KOMA AND
10-14Z AT KOMA. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT KLNK/KOMA BY 20-24Z DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




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