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000
FXUS63 KOAX 252328
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SEASONABLY STRONG 130-150KT UPPER LEVEL JETS WERE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.  THESE FEATURES WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND ATTENDANT 130M+
HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BROAD H5 RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT H85...THE THERMAL
RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S. RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...SO WELL BELOW THOSE
LEVELS.

WE HAD SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED FROM ILLINOIS INTO
MISSOURI...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DRIER AIR.

AT 20Z...SURFACE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH
NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE MID 50S JUST SOUTH OF
BEATRICE. TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY AIR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AND H85 WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 TO 35KTS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH ON SUNDAY.  THE
NAM/SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. THE RAP IS SIMILIAR TO THE NAM AND IS STRONGER WITH THE
FORCING.

AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THERE WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL
FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES/ THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG
ON...WOULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE MIXING FROM OMAHA NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS MORE QUESTIONABLE...THUS HAVE HIGHS 70 TO 75 WITH
WARMER 75 TO 80 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.

A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED. THE EC DOES BRING THE RIDGING EAST...HOWEVER THE
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS...THUS THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS MAY DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG. MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR FOG WITH VSBY UNDER 3 MILES IS KLNK. AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AT AROUND 1000 FEET...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 252044
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
344 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SEASONABLY STRONG 130-150KT UPPER LEVEL JETS WERE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.  THESE FEATURES WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND ATTENDANT 130M+
HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BROAD H5 RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT H85...THE THERMAL
RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S. RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...SO WELL BELOW THOSE
LEVELS.

WE HAD SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED FROM ILLINOIS INTO
MISSOURI...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DRIER AIR.

AT 20Z...SURFACE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH
NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE MID 50S JUST SOUTH OF
BEATRICE. TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY AIR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AND H85 WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 TO 35KTS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH ON SUNDAY.  THE
NAM/SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. THE RAP IS SIMILIAR TO THE NAM AND IS STRONGER WITH THE
FORCING.

AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THERE WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL
FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES/ THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG
ON...WOULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE MIXING FROM OMAHA NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS MORE QUESTIONABLE...THUS HAVE HIGHS 70 TO 75 WITH
WARMER 75 TO 80 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.

A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED. THE EC DOES BRING THE RIDGING EAST...HOWEVER THE
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS...THUS THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG MAY OCCUR AFTER 10Z AT KLNK AS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY AT KOMA AFTER
26/1300Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251818
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
118 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS AN AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND LIKELY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH OF NEBRASKA CITY. HRRR/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND DISSIPATES IT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID
MORNING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FOR A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z.

OTHERWISE...VERY MILD AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS
DO INDICATE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN ON PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS COULD LIMIT
HEATING POTENTIAL. LATEST MET GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND BY
KNOCKING SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST HIGHS. GFS MOVES THE
MOISTURE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND STILL WARMS TEMPS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ADJUSTED FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS
COULD LINGER THE LONGEST...BUT KEPT READINGS AROUND 80 STILL IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

A FRONT DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT COULD
LINGER ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT
OCT 25 2014

AREA WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A VERY BRIEF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DID HAVE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT 00Z MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE
MOISTURE...THUS PULLED THEM OUT FOR NOW. CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS
FOR HALLOWEEN HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG MAY OCCUR AFTER 10Z AT KLNK AS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY AT KOMA AFTER
26/1300Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251818
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
118 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS AN AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND LIKELY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH OF NEBRASKA CITY. HRRR/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND DISSIPATES IT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID
MORNING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FOR A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z.

OTHERWISE...VERY MILD AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS
DO INDICATE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN ON PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS COULD LIMIT
HEATING POTENTIAL. LATEST MET GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND BY
KNOCKING SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST HIGHS. GFS MOVES THE
MOISTURE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND STILL WARMS TEMPS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ADJUSTED FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS
COULD LINGER THE LONGEST...BUT KEPT READINGS AROUND 80 STILL IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

A FRONT DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT COULD
LINGER ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT
OCT 25 2014

AREA WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A VERY BRIEF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DID HAVE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT 00Z MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE
MOISTURE...THUS PULLED THEM OUT FOR NOW. CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS
FOR HALLOWEEN HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG MAY OCCUR AFTER 10Z AT KLNK AS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY AT KOMA AFTER
26/1300Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS AN AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND LIKELY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH OF NEBRASKA CITY. HRRR/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND DISSIPATES IT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID
MORNING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FOR A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z.

OTHERWISE...VERY MILD AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS
DO INDICATE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN ON PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS COULD LIMIT
HEATING POTENTIAL. LATEST MET GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND BY
KNOCKING SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST HIGHS. GFS MOVES THE
MOISTURE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND STILL WARMS TEMPS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ADJUSTED FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS
COULD LINGER THE LONGEST...BUT KEPT READINGS AROUND 80 STILL IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

A FRONT DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT COULD
LINGER ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT
OCT 25 2014

AREA WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A VERY BRIEF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DID HAVE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT 00Z MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE
MOISTURE...THUS PULLED THEM OUT FOR NOW. CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS
FOR HALLOWEEN HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MAY MOV INTO THE TERMINALS RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...OR MORE LIKELY JUST AFTER 12Z AT THE
TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR VISBY AT KLNK FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS BUT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY JUST AFTER
THIS FORECAST CYCLE AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ091-093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 251129
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS AN AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND LIKELY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH OF NEBRASKA CITY. HRRR/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND DISSIPATES IT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID
MORNING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FOR A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z.

OTHERWISE...VERY MILD AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS
DO INDICATE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN ON PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS COULD LIMIT
HEATING POTENTIAL. LATEST MET GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND BY
KNOCKING SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST HIGHS. GFS MOVES THE
MOISTURE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND STILL WARMS TEMPS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ADJUSTED FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS
COULD LINGER THE LONGEST...BUT KEPT READINGS AROUND 80 STILL IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

A FRONT DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT COULD
LINGER ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT
OCT 25 2014

AREA WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A VERY BRIEF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DID HAVE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT 00Z MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE
MOISTURE...THUS PULLED THEM OUT FOR NOW. CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS
FOR HALLOWEEN HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MAY MOV INTO THE TERMINALS RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...OR MORE LIKELY JUST AFTER 12Z AT THE
TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR VISBY AT KLNK FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS BUT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY JUST AFTER
THIS FORECAST CYCLE AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ091-093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250806
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS AN AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND LIKELY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH OF NEBRASKA CITY. HRRR/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND DISSIPATES IT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID
MORNING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FOR A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z.

OTHERWISE...VERY MILD AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS
DO INDICATE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN ON PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS COULD LIMIT
HEATING POTENTIAL. LATEST MET GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND BY
KNOCKING SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST HIGHS. GFS MOVES THE
MOISTURE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND STILL WARMS TEMPS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ADJUSTED FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS
COULD LINGER THE LONGEST...BUT KEPT READINGS AROUND 80 STILL IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

A FRONT DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT COULD
LINGER ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT
OCT 25 2014

AREA WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A VERY BRIEF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DID HAVE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT 00Z MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE
MOISTURE...THUS PULLED THEM OUT FOR NOW. CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS
FOR HALLOWEEN HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND NOW...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST
IOWA...IT MAY AFFECT KOMA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.

AFTER SUNRISE...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLNK AND KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ091-093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET AND ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DAYS OF VERY MILD TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70-80 ON SATURDAY AND 75 TO 83 ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY
SUBTLE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
WELL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR THUS WILL GO DRY FOR NOW...
BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER MODEL TRENDS.

THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO AREA...THAT
WILL RESULT IN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOSTLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COOLER AIR ON TAP BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WE DO GET A BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SMALL RECOVERY AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...THEN TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY. THEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER SURGE FOR
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND NOW...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST
IOWA...IT MAY AFFECT KOMA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.

AFTER SUNRISE...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLNK AND KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 242256
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
556 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET AND ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DAYS OF VERY MILD TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70-80 ON SATURDAY AND 75 TO 83 ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY
SUBTLE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
WELL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR THUS WILL GO DRY FOR NOW...
BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER MODEL TRENDS.

THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO AREA...THAT
WILL RESULT IN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOSTLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COOLER AIR ON TAP BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WE DO GET A BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SMALL RECOVERY AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...THEN TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY. THEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER SURGE FOR
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 241954
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET AND ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DAYS OF VERY MILD TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70-80 ON SATURDAY AND 75 TO 83 ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY
SUBTLE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
WELL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR THUS WILL GO DRY FOR NOW...
BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER MODEL TRENDS.

THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO AREA...THAT
WILL RESULT IN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOSTLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COOLER AIR ON TAP BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WE DO GET A BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SMALL RECOVERY AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...THEN TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY. THEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER SURGE FOR
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH WINDS
TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BY THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BY 13-15Z WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 241954
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET AND ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DAYS OF VERY MILD TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70-80 ON SATURDAY AND 75 TO 83 ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY
SUBTLE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
WELL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR THUS WILL GO DRY FOR NOW...
BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER MODEL TRENDS.

THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO AREA...THAT
WILL RESULT IN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOSTLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COOLER AIR ON TAP BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WE DO GET A BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SMALL RECOVERY AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...THEN TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY. THEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER SURGE FOR
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH WINDS
TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BY THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BY 13-15Z WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 241818
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
118 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
SECONDARY CONCERNS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS SPILLING SE TOWARD/ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION. ALTHOUGH
IT HAD THINNED AS IT MOVED OVER THE FA THROUGH 07Z...THICKNESS OF
IT UPSTREAM INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IMPACTING HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND MAINLY NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD REMAIN THICKEST.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS A THREAT EARLY MOST AREAS...MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED OVER WRN IA WHERE IT HAD MOVED
INTO SW IA AFT 06Z. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 05Z HRRR...AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE RAP. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVEL RH WAS FORECAST TO
SHIFT/ERODE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING PER THOSE MODELS...PROBABLY
LIMITING ANY IMPACT TO MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FAR SW IA THIS MORNING AND ADJUST ACCORDING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT SPREADS OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY. THE
PESSIMISTIC 00Z NAM...REGARDING ITS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING MUCH OF THE FA...WAS GENERALLY
DISREGARDED..ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING W
INTO SERN NEBR AT 08Z. BECAUSE OF WEAK MIXING AND THICKER CIRRUS
THREAT...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT CNTRL/NRN ZONES.

WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY INTO ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED LESS CI AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG GIVEN ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND LOWS LIKELY TO START
OUT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY NOT THAT MUCH COOLER DUE TO PROBABLY NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLER START AND ABSENT STRONG MIXING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MENTION FOG YET...DID INCREASE
SKY COVER SUNDAY MORNING CNTRL/NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD LINGER THE
LONGEST. AIRMASS RECOVERS ANY COOLING THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE
OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER....BESIDES THE INCREASED LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
...GFS INDICATED HIGHER CLOUDS RETURNING AS WELL AND MIXING DUE
TO WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR SRN ZONES. THUS WITH THE CLOUD
AND POSSIBLY WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL NRN ZONES...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER 70S THERE WITH OTHER READINGS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TO
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN FORECAST MONDAY NRN AREAS
AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...PARTIALLY TO RETAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY...AS TROUGH CROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF PER 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WAS LIMITED MONDAY AND MOSTLY ABSENT MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED MONDAY AFTN BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE A TOUCH FASTER INTO SERN ZONES SO HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS THAN PRIOR FORECAST.

WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW DRY WITH LTL/NO FORCING...ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR TUESDAY WAS DROPPED...AND A CONTINUED COOL-DOWN SHOULD
PERSIST.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL/PREV FORECAST BLEND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
WARM UP OVER TUESDAY...TRENDS WOULD INDICATE NUDGING UPWARD MORE
IF WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIMITED.

EARLIER GFS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR A LATE WEEK COOL-DOWN AS TROUGH
SHARPENED TO OUR EAST. ECMWF FOLLOWED SUIT YDA AND CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...GFS HAS NOW FLIPPED TO A WARMER
PATTERN THU/FRI. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH WINDS
TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BY THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BY 13-15Z WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KOAX 241108
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
SECONDARY CONCERNS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS SPILLING SE TOWARD/ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION. ALTHOUGH
IT HAD THINNED AS IT MOVED OVER THE FA THROUGH 07Z...THICKNESS OF
IT UPSTREAM INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IMPACTING HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND MAINLY NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD REMAIN THICKEST.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS A THREAT EARLY MOST AREAS...MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED OVER WRN IA WHERE IT HAD MOVED
INTO SW IA AFT 06Z. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 05Z HRRR...AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE RAP. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVEL RH WAS FORECAST TO
SHIFT/ERODE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING PER THOSE MODELS...PROBABLY
LIMITING ANY IMPACT TO MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FAR SW IA THIS MORNING AND ADJUST ACCORDING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT SPREADS OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY. THE
PESSIMISTIC 00Z NAM...REGARDING ITS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING MUCH OF THE FA...WAS GENERALLY
DISREGARDED..ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING W
INTO SERN NEBR AT 08Z. BECAUSE OF WEAK MIXING AND THICKER CIRRUS
THREAT...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT CNTRL/NRN ZONES.

WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY INTO ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED LESS CI AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG GIVEN ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND LOWS LIKELY TO START
OUT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY NOT THAT MUCH COOLER DUE TO PROBABLY NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLER START AND ABSENT STRONG MIXING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MENTION FOG YET...DID INCREASE
SKY COVER SUNDAY MORNING CNTRL/NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD LINGER THE
LONGEST. AIRMASS RECOVERS ANY COOLING THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE
OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER....BESIDES THE INCREASED LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
...GFS INDICATED HIGHER CLOUDS RETURNING AS WELL AND MIXING DUE
TO WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR SRN ZONES. THUS WITH THE CLOUD
AND POSSIBLY WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL NRN ZONES...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER 70S THERE WITH OTHER READINGS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TO
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN FORECAST MONDAY NRN AREAS
AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...PARTIALLY TO RETAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY...AS TROUGH CROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF PER 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WAS LIMITED MONDAY AND MOSTLY ABSENT MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED MONDAY AFTN BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE A TOUCH FASTER INTO SERN ZONES SO HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS THAN PRIOR FORECAST.

WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW DRY WITH LTL/NO FORCING...ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR TUESDAY WAS DROPPED...AND A CONTINUED COOL-DOWN SHOULD
PERSIST.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL/PREV FORECAST BLEND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
WARM UP OVER TUESDAY...TRENDS WOULD INDICATE NUDGING UPWARD MORE
IF WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIMITED.

EARLIER GFS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR A LATE WEEK COOL-DOWN AS TROUGH
SHARPENED TO OUR EAST. ECMWF FOLLOWED SUIT YDA AND CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...GFS HAS NOW FLIPPED TO A WARMER
PATTERN THU/FRI. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VLIFR CIGS/VISBY IS JUST E OF KOMA AND MOST LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE
IT INTO THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VISBY THROUGH EARLY THIS MRNG
AND WILL INCLUDE A SCT VLIFR DECK IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MAKE IT TO
KOMA. SOME MVFR VISBY IS ALSO LIKELY AT KLNK/KOFK FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE WILL CONT THE MENTION OF LLWS AT
KOMA/KLNK THROUGH MID MRNG PER KOAX VWP. SFC FNT WILL MOV THRU ALL
3 TAF SITES BY MID AFTN SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST AND NW. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FM THIS AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240814
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
SECONDARY CONCERNS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS SPILLING SE TOWARD/ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION. ALTHOUGH
IT HAD THINNED AS IT MOVED OVER THE FA THROUGH 07Z...THICKNESS OF
IT UPSTREAM INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IMPACTING HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND MAINLY NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD REMAIN THICKEST.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS A THREAT EARLY MOST AREAS...MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED OVER WRN IA WHERE IT HAD MOVED
INTO SW IA AFT 06Z. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 05Z HRRR...AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE RAP. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVEL RH WAS FORECAST TO
SHIFT/ERODE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING PER THOSE MODELS...PROBABLY
LIMITING ANY IMPACT TO MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FAR SW IA THIS MORNING AND ADJUST ACCORDING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT SPREADS OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY. THE
PESSIMISTIC 00Z NAM...REGARDING ITS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING MUCH OF THE FA...WAS GENERALLY
DISREGARDED..ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING W
INTO SERN NEBR AT 08Z. BECAUSE OF WEAK MIXING AND THICKER CIRRUS
THREAT...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT CNTRL/NRN ZONES.

WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY INTO ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED LESS CI AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG GIVEN ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND LOWS LIKELY TO START
OUT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY NOT THAT MUCH COOLER DUE TO PROBABLY NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLER START AND ABSENT STRONG MIXING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MENTION FOG YET...DID INCREASE
SKY COVER SUNDAY MORNING CNTRL/NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD LINGER THE
LONGEST. AIRMASS RECOVERS ANY COOLING THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE
OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER....BESIDES THE INCREASED LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
...GFS INDICATED HIGHER CLOUDS RETURNING AS WELL AND MIXING DUE
TO WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR SRN ZONES. THUS WITH THE CLOUD
AND POSSIBLY WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL NRN ZONES...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER 70S THERE WITH OTHER READINGS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TO
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN FORECAST MONDAY NRN AREAS
AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...PARTIALLY TO RETAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY...AS TROUGH CROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF PER 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WAS LIMITED MONDAY AND MOSTLY ABSENT MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED MONDAY AFTN BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE A TOUCH FASTER INTO SERN ZONES SO HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS THAN PRIOR FORECAST.

WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW DRY WITH LTL/NO FORCING...ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR TUESDAY WAS DROPPED...AND A CONTINUED COOL-DOWN SHOULD
PERSIST.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL/PREV FORECAST BLEND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
WARM UP OVER TUESDAY...TRENDS WOULD INDICATE NUDGING UPWARD MORE
IF WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIMITED.

EARLIER GFS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR A LATE WEEK COOL-DOWN AS TROUGH
SHARPENED TO OUR EAST. ECMWF FOLLOWED SUIT YDA AND CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...GFS HAS NOW FLIPPED TO A WARMER
PATTERN THU/FRI. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS NEAR 3SM
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AT ALL SITES. IF THOSE CIGS/VSBYS
DO FORM...THEY SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
 091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240814
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
SECONDARY CONCERNS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS SPILLING SE TOWARD/ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION. ALTHOUGH
IT HAD THINNED AS IT MOVED OVER THE FA THROUGH 07Z...THICKNESS OF
IT UPSTREAM INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IMPACTING HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND MAINLY NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD REMAIN THICKEST.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS A THREAT EARLY MOST AREAS...MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED OVER WRN IA WHERE IT HAD MOVED
INTO SW IA AFT 06Z. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 05Z HRRR...AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE RAP. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVEL RH WAS FORECAST TO
SHIFT/ERODE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING PER THOSE MODELS...PROBABLY
LIMITING ANY IMPACT TO MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FAR SW IA THIS MORNING AND ADJUST ACCORDING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT SPREADS OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY. THE
PESSIMISTIC 00Z NAM...REGARDING ITS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING MUCH OF THE FA...WAS GENERALLY
DISREGARDED..ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING W
INTO SERN NEBR AT 08Z. BECAUSE OF WEAK MIXING AND THICKER CIRRUS
THREAT...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT CNTRL/NRN ZONES.

WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY INTO ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED LESS CI AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG GIVEN ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND LOWS LIKELY TO START
OUT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY NOT THAT MUCH COOLER DUE TO PROBABLY NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLER START AND ABSENT STRONG MIXING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MENTION FOG YET...DID INCREASE
SKY COVER SUNDAY MORNING CNTRL/NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD LINGER THE
LONGEST. AIRMASS RECOVERS ANY COOLING THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE
OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER....BESIDES THE INCREASED LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
...GFS INDICATED HIGHER CLOUDS RETURNING AS WELL AND MIXING DUE
TO WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR SRN ZONES. THUS WITH THE CLOUD
AND POSSIBLY WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL NRN ZONES...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER 70S THERE WITH OTHER READINGS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TO
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN FORECAST MONDAY NRN AREAS
AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...PARTIALLY TO RETAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY...AS TROUGH CROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF PER 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WAS LIMITED MONDAY AND MOSTLY ABSENT MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED MONDAY AFTN BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE A TOUCH FASTER INTO SERN ZONES SO HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS THAN PRIOR FORECAST.

WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW DRY WITH LTL/NO FORCING...ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR TUESDAY WAS DROPPED...AND A CONTINUED COOL-DOWN SHOULD
PERSIST.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL/PREV FORECAST BLEND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
WARM UP OVER TUESDAY...TRENDS WOULD INDICATE NUDGING UPWARD MORE
IF WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIMITED.

EARLIER GFS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR A LATE WEEK COOL-DOWN AS TROUGH
SHARPENED TO OUR EAST. ECMWF FOLLOWED SUIT YDA AND CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...GFS HAS NOW FLIPPED TO A WARMER
PATTERN THU/FRI. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS NEAR 3SM
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AT ALL SITES. IF THOSE CIGS/VSBYS
DO FORM...THEY SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
 091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240446
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING COULD POSE AN IMPACT.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS AREA CONTINUED TO
SHRINK WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH IN SCNTRL NEBR AT 1930Z. A WEAK
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEBR TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
STRATUS WILL EXPAND OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 17Z HRRR/RAP INDICATED AREA WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE NEAR MO RIVER AND INTO WRN IA ALTHOUGH FORMER MODEL HAD BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING THAT NOTION LAST FEW UPDATES. ANY LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN SHIFT NE AS SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
A GOES FOG PRODUCT SIMULATOR FROM CSU SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE FA
COULD GET SOCKED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS IF NOT FOG TOO. ALTHOUGH
ONLY A PATCHY FOG MENTION WILL BE MADE DUE TO THE INCREASED BLYR
WINDS...DID INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ST AND THEN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS MORE CI LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WARMS INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK
WAVE PASSES AND FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ANY STRATUS MIXING OUT
OR SHIFTING NE OF THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY. NO BIG CHANGE FROM PREV
FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY A BIT...MAINLY NORTH AS SHIFT TO NW WINDS COULD PROVIDE A
BIT BETTER MIXING TO COUNTER WEAK COOL ADVECTION IN AFTN.

SATURDAY STILL SHOULD BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
MILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN NRN PLAINS BEHIND WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH UPPER HGTS BEGIN FALLING ACROSS PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT TROUGH...MILD AIR SPREADS BACK NORTHEAST WHICH COULD
CONCEIVABLY PRODUCE MAX TEMPS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HINT AT STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING...KEPT
READINGS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW THOSE EXPECTED FRIDAY...MAINLY
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PASSAGE OF NEXT TROUGH APPEARS IT WILL BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN IT
LOOKED LIKE YDA. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY WRN
ZONES MONDAY BUT ALSO LINGER SOME CHC ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW POPS WERE KEPT IN SLGT CHC OR
LOWER CHC RANGES. WITH THE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAX TEMPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.

COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND TROUGH/FRONT IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL SMOOTHING/BLENDING
PRODUCED UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST AREAS THOSE THREE DAYS...WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITH A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN
TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGHER THEN. ALSO MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS NEXT WEAK WAVE. BOTH OF WHICH
SHOULD WORK THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS NEAR 3SM
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AT ALL SITES. IF THOSE CIGS/VSBYS
DO FORM...THEY SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 232324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING COULD POSE AN IMPACT.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS AREA CONTINUED TO
SHRINK WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH IN SCNTRL NEBR AT 1930Z. A WEAK
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEBR TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
STRATUS WILL EXPAND OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 17Z HRRR/RAP INDICATED AREA WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE NEAR MO RIVER AND INTO WRN IA ALTHOUGH FORMER MODEL HAD BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING THAT NOTION LAST FEW UPDATES. ANY LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN SHIFT NE AS SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
A GOES FOG PRODUCT SIMULATOR FROM CSU SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE FA
COULD GET SOCKED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS IF NOT FOG TOO. ALTHOUGH
ONLY A PATCHY FOG MENTION WILL BE MADE DUE TO THE INCREASED BLYR
WINDS...DID INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ST AND THEN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS MORE CI LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WARMS INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK
WAVE PASSES AND FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ANY STRATUS MIXING OUT
OR SHIFTING NE OF THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY. NO BIG CHANGE FROM PREV
FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY A BIT...MAINLY NORTH AS SHIFT TO NW WINDS COULD PROVIDE A
BIT BETTER MIXING TO COUNTER WEAK COOL ADVECTION IN AFTN.

SATURDAY STILL SHOULD BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
MILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN NRN PLAINS BEHIND WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH UPPER HGTS BEGIN FALLING ACROSS PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT TROUGH...MILD AIR SPREADS BACK NORTHEAST WHICH COULD
CONCEIVABLY PRODUCE MAX TEMPS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HINT AT STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING...KEPT
READINGS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW THOSE EXPECTED FRIDAY...MAINLY
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PASSAGE OF NEXT TROUGH APPEARS IT WILL BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN IT
LOOKED LIKE YDA. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY WRN
ZONES MONDAY BUT ALSO LINGER SOME CHC ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW POPS WERE KEPT IN SLGT CHC OR
LOWER CHC RANGES. WITH THE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAX TEMPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.

COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND TROUGH/FRONT IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL SMOOTHING/BLENDING
PRODUCED UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST AREAS THOSE THREE DAYS...WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITH A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN
TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGHER THEN. ALSO MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS NEXT WEAK WAVE. BOTH OF WHICH
SHOULD WORK THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. THEN THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z.
CIGS BELOW FL010 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEAR 18Z...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 12KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 232001
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING COULD POSE AN IMPACT.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS AREA CONTINUED TO
SHRINK WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH IN SCNTRL NEBR AT 1930Z. A WEAK
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEBR TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
STRATUS WILL EXPAND OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 17Z HRRR/RAP INDICATED AREA WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE NEAR MO RIVER AND INTO WRN IA ALTHOUGH FORMER MODEL HAD BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING THAT NOTION LAST FEW UPDATES. ANY LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN SHIFT NE AS SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
A GOES FOG PRODUCT SIMULATOR FROM CSU SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE FA
COULD GET SOCKED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS IF NOT FOG TOO. ALTHOUGH
ONLY A PATCHY FOG MENTION WILL BE MADE DUE TO THE INCREASED BLYR
WINDS...DID INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ST AND THEN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS MORE CI LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WARMS INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK
WAVE PASSES AND FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ANY STRATUS MIXING OUT
OR SHIFTING NE OF THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY. NO BIG CHANGE FROM PREV
FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY A BIT...MAINLY NORTH AS SHIFT TO NW WINDS COULD PROVIDE A
BIT BETTER MIXING TO COUNTER WEAK COOL ADVECTION IN AFTN.

SATURDAY STILL SHOULD BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
MILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN NRN PLAINS BEHIND WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH UPPER HGTS BEGIN FALLING ACROSS PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT TROUGH...MILD AIR SPREADS BACK NORTHEAST WHICH COULD
CONCEIVABLY PRODUCE MAX TEMPS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HINT AT STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING...KEPT
READINGS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW THOSE EXPECTED FRIDAY...MAINLY
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PASSAGE OF NEXT TROUGH APPEARS IT WILL BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN IT
LOOKED LIKE YDA. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY WRN
ZONES MONDAY BUT ALSO LINGER SOME CHC ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW POPS WERE KEPT IN SLGT CHC OR
LOWER CHC RANGES. WITH THE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAX TEMPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.

COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND TROUGH/FRONT IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL SMOOTHING/BLENDING
PRODUCED UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST AREAS THOSE THREE DAYS...WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITH A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN
TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGHER THEN. ALSO MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS NEXT WEAK WAVE. BOTH OF WHICH
SHOULD WORK THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KLNK BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 19Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA/KLNK. AM THINKING THAT THERE IS
SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...BUT THAT COULD ALSO BE TEMPERED
BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT ALL THREE SITES FROM 07-14Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 231722
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NOW THAT THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF...TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE. DROPPED TEMPS ONE CATEGORY ALONG I80 WHERE
CLOUDS HELD AND MAY KEEP THAT AREA FROM REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
AREAS NORTH AND SOUTH STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A BIT ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND
EXTENDED IT AN HOUR LONGER...UNTIL 10 AM. OTHER MINOR CHANGES
TO SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE...PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUITE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF MODELS. EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON-TUE...BUT DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER
THAT WITH GFS MAINTAINING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE EURO
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KLNK BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 19Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA/KLNK. AM THINKING THAT THERE IS
SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...BUT THAT COULD ALSO BE TEMPERED
BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT ALL THREE SITES FROM 07-14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD





000
FXUS63 KOAX 231210 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
710 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A BIT ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND
EXTENDED IT AN HOUR LONGER...UNTIL 10 AM. OTHER MINOR CHANGES
TO SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE...PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUITE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF MODELS. EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON-TUE...BUT DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER
THAT WITH GFS MAINTAINING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE EURO
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING
THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO WITH ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER WITH THE 18Z TAFS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042>044-050-065-078-088.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 231121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE...PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUITE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF MODELS. EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON-TUE...BUT DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER
THAT WITH GFS MAINTAINING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE EURO
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING
THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO WITH ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE...PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUITE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF MODELS. EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON-TUE...BUT DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER
THAT WITH GFS MAINTAINING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE EURO
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230640
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
140 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS AND GRIDS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO MID MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN





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