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000
FXUS63 KOAX 011706
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS COULD BEGIN TAF PERIOD AT KOMA BUT LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH AFTN. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF NERN NEBR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO
NERN NEBR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. WITH
18Z TAF A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP WAS MENTIONED AT KOFK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY AND THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED LATER IF
TRENDS DICTATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BULK OF ACTIVITY WOULD
REMAIN NW OF KOMA AND KLNK. LIGHT WINDS TOWARD TUE MORNING COULD
ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AND A TEMPO 3-4SM GROUP WAS
MENTIONED AT ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 011706
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS COULD BEGIN TAF PERIOD AT KOMA BUT LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH AFTN. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF NERN NEBR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO
NERN NEBR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. WITH
18Z TAF A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP WAS MENTIONED AT KOFK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY AND THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED LATER IF
TRENDS DICTATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BULK OF ACTIVITY WOULD
REMAIN NW OF KOMA AND KLNK. LIGHT WINDS TOWARD TUE MORNING COULD
ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AND A TEMPO 3-4SM GROUP WAS
MENTIONED AT ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 011127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED PAST KLNK AND WINDS
ARE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THERE...SO LOW CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THERE. FRONT IS NEAR KOMA AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VCNTY FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE A LITTLE. SOME LIGHT COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO MID MORNING BUT DID NOT MENTION AT TAF
SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE KOFK TAF LATER
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO ADD -TSRA AFTER 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 011127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED PAST KLNK AND WINDS
ARE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THERE...SO LOW CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THERE. FRONT IS NEAR KOMA AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VCNTY FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE A LITTLE. SOME LIGHT COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO MID MORNING BUT DID NOT MENTION AT TAF
SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE KOFK TAF LATER
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO ADD -TSRA AFTER 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 010824
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF
SITES. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z. THEN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10KT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 010824
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF
SITES. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z. THEN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10KT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 010443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS OUR CWA AS LINE OF STORMS
HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OVERRUNNING REGIME UNDER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS TRIGGERING STORMS
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA NOW...AND HRRR/RAP MODELS INDICATE THOSE WOULD
APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAR 06Z THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF
SITES. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z. THEN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10KT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 010221
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
921 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS OUR CWA AS LINE OF STORMS
HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OVERRUNNING REGIME UNDER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS TRIGGERING STORMS
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA NOW...AND HRRR/RAP MODELS INDICATE THOSE WOULD
APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAR 06Z THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 010221
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
921 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS OUR CWA AS LINE OF STORMS
HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OVERRUNNING REGIME UNDER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS TRIGGERING STORMS
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA NOW...AND HRRR/RAP MODELS INDICATE THOSE WOULD
APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAR 06Z THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 311946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 311946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A GENERALLY WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING ALONG MO RIVER SHOULD
EXIT KOMA TAF SITE SHORTLY AFTER VALID START TIME WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING EASTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...CLOUDS COULD FILL IN QUICKLY. TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT STILL LIKELY THIS AFTN AS TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH.
ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY WITH LAG IN HEATING
DUE TO MORNING/MIDDAY CLOUDS...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL EXPECTED
TOWARD 00Z. HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGEST COULD BE SE OF KOFK...SO
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION WERE RESERVED FOR KOMA AND
KLNK. BESIDES THE STRONG WIND GUSTS...STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN
HAIL WHICH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS. STORMS COULD LINGER
BEHIND FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO BE LESS THAN EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALSO EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY MORNING...AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WERE
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A GENERALLY WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING ALONG MO RIVER SHOULD
EXIT KOMA TAF SITE SHORTLY AFTER VALID START TIME WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING EASTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...CLOUDS COULD FILL IN QUICKLY. TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT STILL LIKELY THIS AFTN AS TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH.
ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY WITH LAG IN HEATING
DUE TO MORNING/MIDDAY CLOUDS...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL EXPECTED
TOWARD 00Z. HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGEST COULD BE SE OF KOFK...SO
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION WERE RESERVED FOR KOMA AND
KLNK. BESIDES THE STRONG WIND GUSTS...STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN
HAIL WHICH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS. STORMS COULD LINGER
BEHIND FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO BE LESS THAN EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALSO EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY MORNING...AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WERE
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK





000
FXUS63 KOAX 311130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AVN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS REVOLVING
AROUND STRONG/SEVERE +TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS ERN NEB. EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE THIS
AFTN AS FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES TAF SITES WITH DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AT KOFK BY LATE AFTN...AND EARLY
EVENING AT KOMA/KLNK. EXPECT STORMS THEN TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS AND
QUICKLY PUSH INTO WRN IA SHORTLY AFTN 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AVN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS REVOLVING
AROUND STRONG/SEVERE +TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS ERN NEB. EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE THIS
AFTN AS FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES TAF SITES WITH DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AT KOFK BY LATE AFTN...AND EARLY
EVENING AT KOMA/KLNK. EXPECT STORMS THEN TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS AND
QUICKLY PUSH INTO WRN IA SHORTLY AFTN 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORS...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORS...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 310447
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 310447
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302338
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 06Z COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KOFK. THEN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOSE TO TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 302338
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 06Z COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KOFK. THEN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOSE TO TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
116 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
116 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT





000
FXUS63 KOAX 301116
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REGIONAL OBS/IR SATL INDICATING BATCH OF LLVL CIGS SITUATED OVER
ERN SD WAS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SWD INTO ERN NEB THIS MORNING. GIVEN
MOVEMENT TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT BRIEF PD OF
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS MORNING AT KOFK/KOMA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. FOR KLNK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THERE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301116
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REGIONAL OBS/IR SATL INDICATING BATCH OF LLVL CIGS SITUATED OVER
ERN SD WAS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SWD INTO ERN NEB THIS MORNING. GIVEN
MOVEMENT TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT BRIEF PD OF
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS MORNING AT KOFK/KOMA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. FOR KLNK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THERE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300456
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300456
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCE THEY
WILL AFFECT KOFK OR KOMA. THEN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WHEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
IN. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS AT 1SM ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z AND
15Z AT ALL TAF SITES. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST AFTER 05Z WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z
AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND CIGS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOPING 14Z-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z
AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND CIGS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOPING 14Z-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT





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