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000
FXUS64 KOHX 281131
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TN TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT
FOG MAY AFFECT THE CSV TERMINAL THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z BUT SHOULD
CLEAR UP THEREAFTER AS NW WINDS START TO MIX DOWN. SCT-BKN CU ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES TODAY AS WELL.

TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN...WE COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT CSV. LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE.
THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS
INCLUDES 59F AT CKV AND 70 AT BNA...LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
DEWPOINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
AREAS WHILE HIGH TEMPS TODAY REACH ONLY THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE DAYS TO COME...UPPER TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY WED MORNING. FOR THAT REASON...LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
COMMONPLACE. THIS WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE.
THE RECORD OF 58F AT BNA WILL BE IN JEOPARDY...AS WELL AS THE 53F AT
CSV.

OTW...TROUGHING THROUGH FRIDAY IS SOMEWHAT BROAD AND ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY
THIS WEEK BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE EXT FCST...TROUGH TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDED CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. MOISTURE RETURN WILL THEN BE STRONGEST EAST OF TN BUT WE
COULD BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIP AREA. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER...THE ADVERTISED MEX HIGHS LOOK TOO HIGH.
CLIMO IS 89 AND THE MEX IS 88-89 FOR BNA FOR THU THROUGH SUN. HPC
NUMBERS ARE COOLER SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK REASONABLE. WE WILL GO FROM LOWER 60S...DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...TO THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHEN WE HAVE
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281131
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TN TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT
FOG MAY AFFECT THE CSV TERMINAL THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z BUT SHOULD
CLEAR UP THEREAFTER AS NW WINDS START TO MIX DOWN. SCT-BKN CU ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES TODAY AS WELL.

TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN...WE COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT CSV. LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE.
THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS
INCLUDES 59F AT CKV AND 70 AT BNA...LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
DEWPOINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
AREAS WHILE HIGH TEMPS TODAY REACH ONLY THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE DAYS TO COME...UPPER TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY WED MORNING. FOR THAT REASON...LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
COMMONPLACE. THIS WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE.
THE RECORD OF 58F AT BNA WILL BE IN JEOPARDY...AS WELL AS THE 53F AT
CSV.

OTW...TROUGHING THROUGH FRIDAY IS SOMEWHAT BROAD AND ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY
THIS WEEK BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE EXT FCST...TROUGH TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDED CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. MOISTURE RETURN WILL THEN BE STRONGEST EAST OF TN BUT WE
COULD BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIP AREA. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER...THE ADVERTISED MEX HIGHS LOOK TOO HIGH.
CLIMO IS 89 AND THE MEX IS 88-89 FOR BNA FOR THU THROUGH SUN. HPC
NUMBERS ARE COOLER SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK REASONABLE. WE WILL GO FROM LOWER 60S...DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...TO THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHEN WE HAVE
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280850
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
350 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE.
THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS
INCLUDES 59F AT CKV AND 70 AT BNA...LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
DEWPOINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
AREAS WHILE HIGH TEMPS TODAY REACH ONLY THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE DAYS TO COME...UPPER TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY WED MORNING. FOR THAT REASON...LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
COMMONPLACE. THIS WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE.
THE RECORD OF 58F AT BNA WILL BE IN JEOPARDY...AS WELL AS THE 53F AT
CSV.

OTW...TROUGHING THROUGH FRIDAY IS SOMEWHAT BROAD AND ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY
THIS WEEK BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE EXT FCST...TROUGH TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDED CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. MOISTURE RETURN WILL THEN BE STRONGEST EAST OF TN BUT WE
COULD BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIP AREA. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER...THE ADVERTISED MEX HIGHS LOOK TOO HIGH.
CLIMO IS 89 AND THE MEX IS 88-89 FOR BNA FOR THU THROUGH SUN. HPC
NUMBERS ARE COOLER SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK REASONABLE. WE WILL GO FROM LOWER 60S...DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...TO THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHEN WE HAVE
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  62  80  58 /  10  05   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    81  57  79  55 /  10  05   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  58  74  54 /  10  05   0   0
COLUMBIA       85  62  82  58 /  10  05   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   87  62  82  56 /  10  05   0   0
WAVERLY        83  59  80  56 /  10  05   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280850
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
350 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE.
THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS
INCLUDES 59F AT CKV AND 70 AT BNA...LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
DEWPOINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
AREAS WHILE HIGH TEMPS TODAY REACH ONLY THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE DAYS TO COME...UPPER TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY WED MORNING. FOR THAT REASON...LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
COMMONPLACE. THIS WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE.
THE RECORD OF 58F AT BNA WILL BE IN JEOPARDY...AS WELL AS THE 53F AT
CSV.

OTW...TROUGHING THROUGH FRIDAY IS SOMEWHAT BROAD AND ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY
THIS WEEK BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE EXT FCST...TROUGH TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDED CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. MOISTURE RETURN WILL THEN BE STRONGEST EAST OF TN BUT WE
COULD BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIP AREA. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER...THE ADVERTISED MEX HIGHS LOOK TOO HIGH.
CLIMO IS 89 AND THE MEX IS 88-89 FOR BNA FOR THU THROUGH SUN. HPC
NUMBERS ARE COOLER SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK REASONABLE. WE WILL GO FROM LOWER 60S...DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...TO THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHEN WE HAVE
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  62  80  58 /  10  05   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    81  57  79  55 /  10  05   0   0
CROSSVILLE     78  58  74  54 /  10  05   0   0
COLUMBIA       85  62  82  58 /  10  05   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   87  62  82  56 /  10  05   0   0
WAVERLY        83  59  80  56 /  10  05   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280454
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF AIRPORTS WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING
NORTH OF THE ACTIVITY. EXPECT SKC MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT
CKV/BNA AND IN A FEW HOURS AT CSV. WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
SKIES CLEARING AT CSV...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING.
SOME STRATOCU FORMATION POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AT ALL AIRPORTS...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...BELIEVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED IN THE CSV VICINITY BTWN 03Z AND 05Z, AS SFC COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. EXPECT MAINLY JUST ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARD BNA AND CKV.

OF COURSE, IF A TSTM MOVES ACROSS ANY OF THE AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT YOU CAN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUSTY WEST SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NR 20 KTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280454
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF AIRPORTS WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING
NORTH OF THE ACTIVITY. EXPECT SKC MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT
CKV/BNA AND IN A FEW HOURS AT CSV. WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
SKIES CLEARING AT CSV...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING.
SOME STRATOCU FORMATION POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AT ALL AIRPORTS...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...BELIEVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED IN THE CSV VICINITY BTWN 03Z AND 05Z, AS SFC COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. EXPECT MAINLY JUST ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARD BNA AND CKV.

OF COURSE, IF A TSTM MOVES ACROSS ANY OF THE AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT YOU CAN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUSTY WEST SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NR 20 KTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 272323
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...BELIEVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED IN THE CSV VICINITY BTWN 03Z AND 05Z, AS SFC COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. EXPECT MAINLY JUST ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARD BNA AND CKV.

OF COURSE, IF A TSTM MOVES ACROSS ANY OF THE AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT YOU CAN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUSTY WEST SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NR 20 KTS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 272323
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...BELIEVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED IN THE CSV VICINITY BTWN 03Z AND 05Z, AS SFC COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. EXPECT MAINLY JUST ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARD BNA AND CKV.

OF COURSE, IF A TSTM MOVES ACROSS ANY OF THE AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT YOU CAN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUSTY WEST SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NR 20 KTS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271841
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
141 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT UPPER CUMBERLAND AND A FEW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER. CLOSEST CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME IS LAKE CUMBERLAND IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH MORE
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL BELIEVE WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH TEMPS AT 700 MBARS CURRENTLY AT
+12 DEGREES CELSIUS CONTINUES TO HOLD DOWN DEVELOPMENT...WITH
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE
CONVECTION IS ON-GOING. THINK WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT ON COOL
FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO GIVE A KICK AND CRANK STORMS UP ALONG KENTUCKY
BORDER BACK THIS WAY IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME FRAME. STORMS SHOULD WORK
DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AND INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA BY 02Z...AND
THEN WORK ON DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE GO TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN WATCH AREA.

COOL FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  61  81 /  40  10  05   0
CLARKSVILLE    64  82  56  82 /  30  10  05   0
CROSSVILLE     66  76  57  75 /  40  10  05   0
COLUMBIA       69  86  61  82 /  40  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   69  86  61  82 /  30  10  05   0
WAVERLY        65  84  58  83 /  40  10  05   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271841
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
141 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT UPPER CUMBERLAND AND A FEW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER. CLOSEST CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME IS LAKE CUMBERLAND IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH MORE
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL BELIEVE WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH TEMPS AT 700 MBARS CURRENTLY AT
+12 DEGREES CELSIUS CONTINUES TO HOLD DOWN DEVELOPMENT...WITH
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE
CONVECTION IS ON-GOING. THINK WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT ON COOL
FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO GIVE A KICK AND CRANK STORMS UP ALONG KENTUCKY
BORDER BACK THIS WAY IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME FRAME. STORMS SHOULD WORK
DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AND INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA BY 02Z...AND
THEN WORK ON DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE GO TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN WATCH AREA.

COOL FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  84  61  81 /  40  10  05   0
CLARKSVILLE    64  82  56  82 /  30  10  05   0
CROSSVILLE     66  76  57  75 /  40  10  05   0
COLUMBIA       69  86  61  82 /  40  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   69  86  61  82 /  30  10  05   0
WAVERLY        65  84  58  83 /  40  10  05   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271750
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH UPPER CUMBERLAND
AND A FEW COUNTIES NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271750
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH UPPER CUMBERLAND
AND A FEW COUNTIES NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR THE KENTUCKY
BORDER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271735
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
INVOF AREA TERMINALS...MAINLY BTWN 21Z/27 AND 05Z/28. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER EASTERN AREAS INVOF CSV AND
HAVE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPO MVFR AT CSV BTWN 03Z AND 05Z.
OF COURSE, IF A TSTM PASSES OVER ANY AREA TERMINAL LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT YOU AN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AND PSBLY EVEN IFR
AS THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE STORM PASSES OVERHEAD. GUSTY WEST SFC
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271735
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
INVOF AREA TERMINALS...MAINLY BTWN 21Z/27 AND 05Z/28. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER EASTERN AREAS INVOF CSV AND
HAVE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPO MVFR AT CSV BTWN 03Z AND 05Z.
OF COURSE, IF A TSTM PASSES OVER ANY AREA TERMINAL LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT YOU AN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AND PSBLY EVEN IFR
AS THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE STORM PASSES OVERHEAD. GUSTY WEST SFC
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271710
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1210 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH IN EEFECT FOR UPPER CUMBERLAND AND A FEW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR KENTUCKY BORDER UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271451
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
951 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z OHX RAOB SHOWING GOOD CAP BASED AROUND 900 MBARS WITH 4700 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM OF POSITIVE ENERGY AVAILABLE ONCE CAP IS BROKEN. ITS
GOING TO TAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S TO BREAK CAP FROM SIMPLY
HEATING BUT FORCING WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z AS FRONT NEARS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE A LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER BY
21Z-22Z TIME FRAME THAT WILL WORK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING.
OMEGA CRANKS UP LATE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE IS LACKING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271451
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
951 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z OHX RAOB SHOWING GOOD CAP BASED AROUND 900 MBARS WITH 4700 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM OF POSITIVE ENERGY AVAILABLE ONCE CAP IS BROKEN. ITS
GOING TO TAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S TO BREAK CAP FROM SIMPLY
HEATING BUT FORCING WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z AS FRONT NEARS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE A LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER BY
21Z-22Z TIME FRAME THAT WILL WORK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING.
OMEGA CRANKS UP LATE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE IS LACKING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271231
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
731 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS...DEWS AND RH FOR REST
OF THIS MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...WHICH AT
12Z SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE 71 TO 74 DEGREE RANGE OVER MID TN
EXCEPT UPPER 60S ON THE PLATEAU. UPDATED AFM/PFM PRODUCTS BUT
CHANGES DO NOT IMPACT THE ZONES.

WFO NASHVILLE WILL DO A SPECIAL 18Z BALLOON RELEASE PER SPC REQUEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
MCS THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND
MISS OUR TAF AREAS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE
TAF AREAS. AIRMASS SHOULD BE CAPPED AND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT PRIOR TO 18Z TODAY. THEN...AS THE IMPACT OF FORCING
COMES INTO PAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
OCCUR. OTW...PARTIAL CLEARING TO COMMENCE...MAINLY AFT 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVED FROM KY INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF MIDDLE TN EARLIER OVERNIGHT HAD WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA BY 08Z. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS WAS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG IN/KY BORDER BUT THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE TN. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 08Z WITH TEMPS/DEWS UP 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER TN AND SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE STATE BY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE MID
STATE...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO 00Z IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES..AND CLOSER TO 06Z IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN ALL OF THE MID STATE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...MAINLY
DURING THE BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE FRONT PASSES.

TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS SFC PRESSURES FALL
AND FRONT APPROACHES...THOUGH THE TEMP INCREASE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH
AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BY 2 OR 3 DEGREES.
NONETHELESS IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH INCREASED HEAT
INDEX VALUES.

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY H5 NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY.  DEWPOINTS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LOW...TOO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HARD
TO IMAGINE BETTER WEATHER FOR LATE JULY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN ON THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...BUT
TEMPS MAY CREEP UP A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR FRI/SAT...EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE LARGE SCALE H5 TROF OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST...EVEN SHOWING A
DEVELOPING CLOSED H5 LOW. MEANWHILE BOTH MODELS STRENGTHEN THE H5
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE
THE GFS IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AND BOTH KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF MID TN...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF STORMS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271231
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
731 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS...DEWS AND RH FOR REST
OF THIS MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...WHICH AT
12Z SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE 71 TO 74 DEGREE RANGE OVER MID TN
EXCEPT UPPER 60S ON THE PLATEAU. UPDATED AFM/PFM PRODUCTS BUT
CHANGES DO NOT IMPACT THE ZONES.

WFO NASHVILLE WILL DO A SPECIAL 18Z BALLOON RELEASE PER SPC REQUEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
MCS THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND
MISS OUR TAF AREAS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE
TAF AREAS. AIRMASS SHOULD BE CAPPED AND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT PRIOR TO 18Z TODAY. THEN...AS THE IMPACT OF FORCING
COMES INTO PAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
OCCUR. OTW...PARTIAL CLEARING TO COMMENCE...MAINLY AFT 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVED FROM KY INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF MIDDLE TN EARLIER OVERNIGHT HAD WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA BY 08Z. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS WAS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG IN/KY BORDER BUT THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE TN. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 08Z WITH TEMPS/DEWS UP 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER TN AND SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE STATE BY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE MID
STATE...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO 00Z IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES..AND CLOSER TO 06Z IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN ALL OF THE MID STATE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...MAINLY
DURING THE BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE FRONT PASSES.

TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS SFC PRESSURES FALL
AND FRONT APPROACHES...THOUGH THE TEMP INCREASE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH
AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BY 2 OR 3 DEGREES.
NONETHELESS IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH INCREASED HEAT
INDEX VALUES.

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY H5 NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY.  DEWPOINTS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LOW...TOO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HARD
TO IMAGINE BETTER WEATHER FOR LATE JULY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN ON THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...BUT
TEMPS MAY CREEP UP A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR FRI/SAT...EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE LARGE SCALE H5 TROF OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST...EVEN SHOWING A
DEVELOPING CLOSED H5 LOW. MEANWHILE BOTH MODELS STRENGTHEN THE H5
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE
THE GFS IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AND BOTH KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF MID TN...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF STORMS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271058
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
558 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
MCS THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND
MISS OUR TAF AREAS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE
TAF AREAS. AIRMASS SHOULD BE CAPPED AND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT PRIOR TO 18Z TODAY. THEN...AS THE IMPACT OF FORCING
COMES INTO PAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
OCCUR. OTW...PARTIAL CLEARING TO COMMENCE...MAINLY AFT 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVED FROM KY INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF MIDDLE TN EARLIER OVERNIGHT HAD WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA BY 08Z. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS WAS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG IN/KY BORDER BUT THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE TN. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 08Z WITH TEMPS/DEWS UP 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER TN AND SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE STATE BY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE MID
STATE...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO 00Z IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES..AND CLOSER TO 06Z IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN ALL OF THE MID STATE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...MAINLY
DURING THE BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE FRONT PASSES.

TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS SFC PRESSURES FALL
AND FRONT APPROACHES...THOUGH THE TEMP INCREASE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH
AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BY 2 OR 3 DEGREES.
NONETHELESS IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH INCREASED HEAT
INDEX VALUES.

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY H5 NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY.  DEWPOINTS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LOW...TOO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HARD
TO IMAGINE BETTER WEATHER FOR LATE JULY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN ON THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...BUT
TEMPS MAY CREEP UP A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR FRI/SAT...EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE LARGE SCALE H5 TROF OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST...EVEN SHOWING A
DEVELOPING CLOSED H5 LOW. MEANWHILE BOTH MODELS STRENGTHEN THE H5
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE
THE GFS IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AND BOTH KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF MID TN...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF STORMS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271058
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
558 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
MCS THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND
MISS OUR TAF AREAS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE
TAF AREAS. AIRMASS SHOULD BE CAPPED AND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT PRIOR TO 18Z TODAY. THEN...AS THE IMPACT OF FORCING
COMES INTO PAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
OCCUR. OTW...PARTIAL CLEARING TO COMMENCE...MAINLY AFT 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVED FROM KY INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF MIDDLE TN EARLIER OVERNIGHT HAD WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA BY 08Z. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS WAS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG IN/KY BORDER BUT THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE TN. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 08Z WITH TEMPS/DEWS UP 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER TN AND SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE STATE BY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE MID
STATE...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO 00Z IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES..AND CLOSER TO 06Z IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN ALL OF THE MID STATE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...MAINLY
DURING THE BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE FRONT PASSES.

TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS SFC PRESSURES FALL
AND FRONT APPROACHES...THOUGH THE TEMP INCREASE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH
AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BY 2 OR 3 DEGREES.
NONETHELESS IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH INCREASED HEAT
INDEX VALUES.

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY H5 NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY.  DEWPOINTS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LOW...TOO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HARD
TO IMAGINE BETTER WEATHER FOR LATE JULY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN ON THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...BUT
TEMPS MAY CREEP UP A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR FRI/SAT...EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE LARGE SCALE H5 TROF OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST...EVEN SHOWING A
DEVELOPING CLOSED H5 LOW. MEANWHILE BOTH MODELS STRENGTHEN THE H5
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE
THE GFS IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AND BOTH KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF MID TN...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF STORMS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270838
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVED FROM KY INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF MIDDLE TN EARLIER OVERNIGHT HAD WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA BY 08Z. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS WAS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG IN/KY BORDER BUT THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE TN. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 08Z WITH TEMPS/DEWS UP 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER TN AND SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE STATE BY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE MID
STATE...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO 00Z IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES..AND CLOSER TO 06Z IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN ALL OF THE MID STATE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...MAINLY
DURING THE BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE FRONT PASSES.

TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS SFC PRESSURES FALL
AND FRONT APPROACHES...THOUGH THE TEMP INCREASE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH
AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BY 2 OR 3 DEGREES.
NONETHELESS IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH INCREASED HEAT
INDEX VALUES.

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY H5 NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY.  DEWPOINTS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LOW...TOO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HARD
TO IMAGINE BETTER WEATHER FOR LATE JULY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN ON THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...BUT
TEMPS MAY CREEP UP A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR FRI/SAT...EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE LARGE SCALE H5 TROF OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST...EVEN SHOWING A
DEVELOPING CLOSED H5 LOW. MEANWHILE BOTH MODELS STRENGTHEN THE H5
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE
THE GFS IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AND BOTH KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF MID TN...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF STORMS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  69  85  62 /  20  40  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    94  65  83  58 /  30  30  10  05
CROSSVILLE     87  66  79  57 /  30  40  10  10
COLUMBIA       95  70  87  62 /  20  40  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   94  70  86  62 /  20  30  10  05
WAVERLY        95  66  85  59 /  20  40  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270838
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVED FROM KY INTO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF MIDDLE TN EARLIER OVERNIGHT HAD WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA BY 08Z. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS WAS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG IN/KY BORDER BUT THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE TN. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 08Z WITH TEMPS/DEWS UP 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER TN AND SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE STATE BY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE MID
STATE...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO 00Z IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES..AND CLOSER TO 06Z IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN ALL OF THE MID STATE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...MAINLY
DURING THE BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE FRONT PASSES.

TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS SFC PRESSURES FALL
AND FRONT APPROACHES...THOUGH THE TEMP INCREASE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH
AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BY 2 OR 3 DEGREES.
NONETHELESS IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH INCREASED HEAT
INDEX VALUES.

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY H5 NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY.  DEWPOINTS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LOW...TOO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HARD
TO IMAGINE BETTER WEATHER FOR LATE JULY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN ON THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...BUT
TEMPS MAY CREEP UP A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR FRI/SAT...EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE LARGE SCALE H5 TROF OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST...EVEN SHOWING A
DEVELOPING CLOSED H5 LOW. MEANWHILE BOTH MODELS STRENGTHEN THE H5
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE
THE GFS IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS AND BOTH KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF MID TN...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF STORMS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  69  85  62 /  20  40  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    94  65  83  58 /  30  30  10  05
CROSSVILLE     87  66  79  57 /  30  40  10  10
COLUMBIA       95  70  87  62 /  20  40  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   94  70  86  62 /  20  30  10  05
WAVERLY        95  66  85  59 /  20  40  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270452
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO THE MID-STATE
AREA AT ISSUANCE. WHILE THIS LINE IS PRODUCING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF
LIGHTNING AND HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IT IS
STARTING TO FALL APART...AND SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF OUR TERMINALS.
SOME -RA IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE COLD FRONT FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN THIS
CYCLE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTING 20-25KTS BY
LATE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING SCATTERED ENOUGH AS THEY ENTER THE STATE
AROUND 23Z/SUNDAY-00Z/MONDAY TO PRECLUDE PREVAILING AT KCKV. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCTS AT KBNA AND KCSV FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND WHILE ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES DIRECT IMPACT FROM ONE OF THESE TS WILL
LIKELY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR...FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR ON THE WHOLE. SOME TWEAKING OF TS ARRIVAL TIME WILL BE LIKELY
IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

UPDATE...
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN IL AND IN PRODUCING PRIMARILY 40-50 KT
WIND GUSTS. THIS HAS WARRANTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR
NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH EXTENDING TO THE TN/KY BORDER.

LOOKING AT THE 700-500 MB WIND FIELD AND DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
VARIABLES...THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF A
MATURE COLD POOL AS THIS MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SE. WHILE THE DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR DROPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AT THE TN/KY
BORDER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO SURVIVE..ALBEIT LIKELY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BEFORE REACHING THE TN BORDER. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. AS OF RIGHT NOW...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
PROBABLY WHEN THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AT
THE TN/KY BORDER.

AS FOR TOMORROW...THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BUMP UP
THE DEWPOINT GRIDS DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME DUE TO GFS DRY
BIAS AS OF LATE. THIS EFFECTED THE APPARENT T OUTPUT BY INCREASING
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
OFF THE PLATEAU. HENCE THE MENTION OF HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LATEST UPDATE OF THE HWO AND SPS.

TB12

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270452
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO THE MID-STATE
AREA AT ISSUANCE. WHILE THIS LINE IS PRODUCING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF
LIGHTNING AND HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IT IS
STARTING TO FALL APART...AND SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF OUR TERMINALS.
SOME -RA IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE COLD FRONT FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN THIS
CYCLE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTING 20-25KTS BY
LATE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING SCATTERED ENOUGH AS THEY ENTER THE STATE
AROUND 23Z/SUNDAY-00Z/MONDAY TO PRECLUDE PREVAILING AT KCKV. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCTS AT KBNA AND KCSV FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND WHILE ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES DIRECT IMPACT FROM ONE OF THESE TS WILL
LIKELY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR...FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR ON THE WHOLE. SOME TWEAKING OF TS ARRIVAL TIME WILL BE LIKELY
IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

UPDATE...
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN IL AND IN PRODUCING PRIMARILY 40-50 KT
WIND GUSTS. THIS HAS WARRANTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR
NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH EXTENDING TO THE TN/KY BORDER.

LOOKING AT THE 700-500 MB WIND FIELD AND DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
VARIABLES...THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF A
MATURE COLD POOL AS THIS MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SE. WHILE THE DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR DROPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AT THE TN/KY
BORDER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO SURVIVE..ALBEIT LIKELY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BEFORE REACHING THE TN BORDER. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. AS OF RIGHT NOW...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
PROBABLY WHEN THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AT
THE TN/KY BORDER.

AS FOR TOMORROW...THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BUMP UP
THE DEWPOINT GRIDS DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME DUE TO GFS DRY
BIAS AS OF LATE. THIS EFFECTED THE APPARENT T OUTPUT BY INCREASING
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
OFF THE PLATEAU. HENCE THE MENTION OF HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LATEST UPDATE OF THE HWO AND SPS.

TB12

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270203
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
903 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN IL AND IN PRODUCING PRIMARILY 40-50 KT
WIND GUSTS. THIS HAS WARRANTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR
NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH EXTENDING TO THE TN/KY BORDER.

LOOKING AT THE 700-500 MB WIND FIELD AND DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
VARIABLES...THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF A
MATURE COLD POOL AS THIS MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SE. WHILE THE DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR DROPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AT THE TN/KY
BORDER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO SURVIVE..ALBEIT LIKELY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BEFORE REACHING THE TN BORDER. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. AS OF RIGHT NOW...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
PROBABLY WHEN THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AT
THE TN/KY BORDER.

AS FOR TOMORROW...THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BUMP UP
THE DEWPOINT GRIDS DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME DUE TO GFS DRY
BIAS AS OF LATE. THIS EFFECTED THE APPARENT T OUTPUT BY INCREASING
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
OFF THE PLATEAU. HENCE THE MENTION OF HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LATEST UPDATE OF THE HWO AND SPS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS
TAF CYCLE. KCSV MIGHT SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

FOCUS WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH WSW GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED SO ATTM WILL NOT PREVAIL ANYTHING.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE...IF NOT AFTER 00Z MONDAY. MAY ADD SOME VCTS IN THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS BUT FOR NOW...VFR RULES.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CIRRUS FIBRATUS
HIGH ABOVE. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER RUNNING FROM KANSAS EASTWARD THROUGH
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS TENNESSEE HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE ACROSS TENNESSEE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A SERIES OF COMPLEXES
MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID
STATE ON EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND BY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL GET MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SO AM LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX TO EVENTUALLY
WORK DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KENTUCKY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AND TRY AND CLIP UPPER CUMBERLAND AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE NIGHT ALONG KENTUCKY
BORDER AS FAR WEST AS INTERSTATE 65. ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADING AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING AM EXPECTING TO SEE
CONVECTION INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FRONT NEARS
LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONE PROBLEM WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THIS GO
AROUND IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE DRY BUT THE FORCING IS THERE...SO MAY
ONLY BE LOOKING AT SCATTERED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH NOT EVERYONE
GETTING RAIN. DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. EVEN
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES WESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN MEANS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270203
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
903 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN IL AND IN PRODUCING PRIMARILY 40-50 KT
WIND GUSTS. THIS HAS WARRANTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR
NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH EXTENDING TO THE TN/KY BORDER.

LOOKING AT THE 700-500 MB WIND FIELD AND DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
VARIABLES...THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF A
MATURE COLD POOL AS THIS MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SE. WHILE THE DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR DROPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AT THE TN/KY
BORDER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO SURVIVE..ALBEIT LIKELY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BEFORE REACHING THE TN BORDER. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. AS OF RIGHT NOW...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
PROBABLY WHEN THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AT
THE TN/KY BORDER.

AS FOR TOMORROW...THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BUMP UP
THE DEWPOINT GRIDS DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME DUE TO GFS DRY
BIAS AS OF LATE. THIS EFFECTED THE APPARENT T OUTPUT BY INCREASING
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
OFF THE PLATEAU. HENCE THE MENTION OF HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LATEST UPDATE OF THE HWO AND SPS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS
TAF CYCLE. KCSV MIGHT SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

FOCUS WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH WSW GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED SO ATTM WILL NOT PREVAIL ANYTHING.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE...IF NOT AFTER 00Z MONDAY. MAY ADD SOME VCTS IN THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS BUT FOR NOW...VFR RULES.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CIRRUS FIBRATUS
HIGH ABOVE. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER RUNNING FROM KANSAS EASTWARD THROUGH
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS TENNESSEE HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE ACROSS TENNESSEE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A SERIES OF COMPLEXES
MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID
STATE ON EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND BY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL GET MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SO AM LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX TO EVENTUALLY
WORK DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KENTUCKY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AND TRY AND CLIP UPPER CUMBERLAND AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE NIGHT ALONG KENTUCKY
BORDER AS FAR WEST AS INTERSTATE 65. ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADING AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING AM EXPECTING TO SEE
CONVECTION INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FRONT NEARS
LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONE PROBLEM WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THIS GO
AROUND IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE DRY BUT THE FORCING IS THERE...SO MAY
ONLY BE LOOKING AT SCATTERED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH NOT EVERYONE
GETTING RAIN. DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. EVEN
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES WESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN MEANS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12








000
FXUS64 KOHX 262320
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS
TAF CYCLE. KCSV MIGHT SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

FOCUS WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH WSW GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED SO ATTM WILL NOT PREVAIL ANYTHING.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE...IF NOT AFTER 00Z MONDAY. MAY ADD SOME VCTS IN THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS BUT FOR NOW...VFR RULES.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CIRRUS FIBRATUS
HIGH ABOVE. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER RUNNING FROM KANSAS EASTWARD THROUGH
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS TENNESSEE HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE ACROSS TENNESSEE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A SERIES OF COMPLEXES
MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID
STATE ON EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND BY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL GET MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SO AM LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX TO EVENTUALLY
WORK DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KENTUCKY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AND TRY AND CLIP UPPER CUMBERLAND AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE NIGHT ALONG KENTUCKY
BORDER AS FAR WEST AS INTERSTATE 65. ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADING AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING AM EXPECTING TO SEE
CONVECTION INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FRONT NEARS
LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONE PROBLEM WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THIS GO
AROUND IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE DRY BUT THE FORCING IS THERE...SO MAY
ONLY BE LOOKING AT SCATTERED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH NOT EVERYONE
GETTING RAIN. DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. EVEN
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES WESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN MEANS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 262320
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS
TAF CYCLE. KCSV MIGHT SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

FOCUS WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH WSW GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED SO ATTM WILL NOT PREVAIL ANYTHING.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE...IF NOT AFTER 00Z MONDAY. MAY ADD SOME VCTS IN THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS BUT FOR NOW...VFR RULES.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CIRRUS FIBRATUS
HIGH ABOVE. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER RUNNING FROM KANSAS EASTWARD THROUGH
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS TENNESSEE HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE ACROSS TENNESSEE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A SERIES OF COMPLEXES
MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID
STATE ON EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND BY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL GET MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SO AM LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX TO EVENTUALLY
WORK DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KENTUCKY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AND TRY AND CLIP UPPER CUMBERLAND AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE NIGHT ALONG KENTUCKY
BORDER AS FAR WEST AS INTERSTATE 65. ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADING AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING AM EXPECTING TO SEE
CONVECTION INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FRONT NEARS
LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONE PROBLEM WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THIS GO
AROUND IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE DRY BUT THE FORCING IS THERE...SO MAY
ONLY BE LOOKING AT SCATTERED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH NOT EVERYONE
GETTING RAIN. DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. EVEN
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES WESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN MEANS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261843
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
143 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CIRRUS FIBRATUS
HIGH ABOVE. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER RUNNING FROM KANSAS EASTWARD THROUGH
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS TENNESSEE HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE ACROSS TENNESSEE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A SERIES OF COMPLEXES
MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID
STATE ON EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND BY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL GET MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SO AM LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX TO EVENTUALLY
WORK DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KENTUCKY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AND TRY AND CLIP UPPER CUMBERLAND AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE NIGHT ALONG KENTUCKY
BORDER AS FAR WEST AS INTERSTATE 65. ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADING AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING AM EXPECTING TO SEE
CONVECTION INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FRONT NEARS
LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONE PROBLEM WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THIS GO
AROUND IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE DRY BUT THE FORCING IS THERE...SO MAY
ONLY BE LOOKING AT SCATTERED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH NOT EVERYONE
GETTING RAIN. DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. EVEN
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES WESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN MEANS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  96  69  85 /  10  20  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    72  95  65  84 /  20  30  30  10
CROSSVILLE     69  88  65  78 /  20  30  40  10
COLUMBIA       73  95  70  87 /  10  20  40  10
LAWRENCEBURG   71  96  70  88 /  05  20  30  10
WAVERLY        72  95  66  85 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261843
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
143 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CIRRUS FIBRATUS
HIGH ABOVE. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER RUNNING FROM KANSAS EASTWARD THROUGH
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS TENNESSEE HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE ACROSS TENNESSEE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A SERIES OF COMPLEXES
MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID
STATE ON EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND BY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL GET MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SO AM LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX TO EVENTUALLY
WORK DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KENTUCKY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AND TRY AND CLIP UPPER CUMBERLAND AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE NIGHT ALONG KENTUCKY
BORDER AS FAR WEST AS INTERSTATE 65. ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADING AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING AM EXPECTING TO SEE
CONVECTION INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FRONT NEARS
LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONE PROBLEM WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THIS GO
AROUND IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE DRY BUT THE FORCING IS THERE...SO MAY
ONLY BE LOOKING AT SCATTERED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH NOT EVERYONE
GETTING RAIN. DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. EVEN
THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES WESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN MEANS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  96  69  85 /  10  20  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    72  95  65  84 /  20  30  30  10
CROSSVILLE     69  88  65  78 /  20  30  40  10
COLUMBIA       73  95  70  87 /  10  20  40  10
LAWRENCEBURG   71  96  70  88 /  05  20  30  10
WAVERLY        72  95  66  85 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261747
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

AT CSV...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z/27, THEN TEMPO MVFR DUE
TO BR THRU 12Z, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 12Z/27.

AT BNA AND CKV...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

W-TO-SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING, AFTER 15Z, WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261747
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

AT CSV...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z/27, THEN TEMPO MVFR DUE
TO BR THRU 12Z, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 12Z/27.

AT BNA AND CKV...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

W-TO-SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING, AFTER 15Z, WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261448
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
948 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE THIS WAY WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS TENNESSEE TODAY. MORNING OHX RAOB SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED AROUND 900 MBARS. STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
STRETCHING FROM KANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...AND NOSING
TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
WITH THIS MUCH INHIBITION ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF MY CWA.

AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE PLATEAU.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261448
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
948 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE THIS WAY WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS TENNESSEE TODAY. MORNING OHX RAOB SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED AROUND 900 MBARS. STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
STRETCHING FROM KANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...AND NOSING
TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
WITH THIS MUCH INHIBITION ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE WELL NORTH
OF MY CWA.

AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE PLATEAU.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261150
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW PATCHES OF 2-3SM BR ARE POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE TN UNTIL
14Z...OTHERWISE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT BY
AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
STARTS TO APPROACH THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT
AND SFC WINDS WILL HOLD IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE AS THE LOW
MOVES EASTWARD TO THE OH VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
OUR WAY TODAY. THIS WILL ENABLE DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5-8
DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL
CAPPED AS DRY AIR ABOUNDS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES OUR
WAY. IN FACT...ON SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE
THE RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT...ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS CAPPED THROUGH 18Z ON SUNDAY. BY 00Z HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL LIFTING MAY SURPASS THE CAP SO I WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AND THEREFORE...POPS
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE INCLUDED. AS FOR THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...CAPES STILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE
WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. SO...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ASSOCIATED
LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS DO NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE GFS BUT
THE NAM LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON MONDAY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A DEFINITIVE OPPORTUNITY IS AT HAND ON
SUNDAY. MAV MOS IS GOING WITH 98F AT BNA. PARCEL METHOD ONLY
SUPPORTS 94F. BUT...THE FRONT IS PRESSING DOWNWARD AND SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY BE AT HAND. WILL UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES
ANYHOW.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL EXHIBIT AXIAL
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FURTHERMORE...THE AXIS
WILL RETROGRADE WITH TIME AND FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE THERMAL
TROUGHING INFLUENCE OVER THE MID STATE. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUES AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE DRY
AIRMASS CONTRIBUTES TO COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261150
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW PATCHES OF 2-3SM BR ARE POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE TN UNTIL
14Z...OTHERWISE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT BY
AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
STARTS TO APPROACH THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT
AND SFC WINDS WILL HOLD IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE AS THE LOW
MOVES EASTWARD TO THE OH VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
OUR WAY TODAY. THIS WILL ENABLE DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5-8
DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL
CAPPED AS DRY AIR ABOUNDS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES OUR
WAY. IN FACT...ON SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE
THE RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT...ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS CAPPED THROUGH 18Z ON SUNDAY. BY 00Z HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL LIFTING MAY SURPASS THE CAP SO I WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AND THEREFORE...POPS
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE INCLUDED. AS FOR THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...CAPES STILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE
WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. SO...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ASSOCIATED
LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS DO NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE GFS BUT
THE NAM LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON MONDAY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A DEFINITIVE OPPORTUNITY IS AT HAND ON
SUNDAY. MAV MOS IS GOING WITH 98F AT BNA. PARCEL METHOD ONLY
SUPPORTS 94F. BUT...THE FRONT IS PRESSING DOWNWARD AND SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY BE AT HAND. WILL UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES
ANYHOW.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL EXHIBIT AXIAL
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FURTHERMORE...THE AXIS
WILL RETROGRADE WITH TIME AND FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE THERMAL
TROUGHING INFLUENCE OVER THE MID STATE. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUES AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE DRY
AIRMASS CONTRIBUTES TO COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260841
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
OUR WAY TODAY. THIS WILL ENABLE DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5-8
DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL
CAPPED AS DRY AIR ABOUNDS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES OUR
WAY. IN FACT...ON SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE
THE RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT...ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS CAPPED THROUGH 18Z ON SUNDAY. BY 00Z HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL LIFTING MAY SURPASS THE CAP SO I WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AND THEREFORE...POPS
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE INCLUDED. AS FOR THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...CAPES STILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE
WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. SO...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ASSOCIATED
LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS DO NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE GFS BUT
THE NAM LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON MONDAY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A DEFINITIVE OPPORTUNITY IS AT HAND ON
SUNDAY. MAV MOS IS GOING WITH 98F AT BNA. PARCEL METHOD ONLY
SUPPORTS 94F. BUT...THE FRONT IS PRESSING DOWNWARD AND SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY BE AT HAND. WILL UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES
ANYHOW.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL EXHIBIT AXIAL
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FURTHERMORE...THE AXIS
WILL RETROGRADE WITH TIME AND FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE THERMAL
TROUGHING INFLUENCE OVER THE MID STATE. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUES AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE DRY
AIRMASS CONTRIBUTES TO COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  96  69 /   0  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    93  73  94  66 /   0  10  30  30
CROSSVILLE     86  68  90  67 /   0  10  20  40
COLUMBIA       94  74  96  71 /   0  10  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   93  73  95  71 /   0  05  10  40
WAVERLY        93  74  95  67 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260841
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
OUR WAY TODAY. THIS WILL ENABLE DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5-8
DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL
CAPPED AS DRY AIR ABOUNDS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES OUR
WAY. IN FACT...ON SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE
THE RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT...ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS CAPPED THROUGH 18Z ON SUNDAY. BY 00Z HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL LIFTING MAY SURPASS THE CAP SO I WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AND THEREFORE...POPS
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE INCLUDED. AS FOR THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...CAPES STILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE
WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. SO...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ASSOCIATED
LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS DO NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE GFS BUT
THE NAM LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON MONDAY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A DEFINITIVE OPPORTUNITY IS AT HAND ON
SUNDAY. MAV MOS IS GOING WITH 98F AT BNA. PARCEL METHOD ONLY
SUPPORTS 94F. BUT...THE FRONT IS PRESSING DOWNWARD AND SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY BE AT HAND. WILL UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES
ANYHOW.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL EXHIBIT AXIAL
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FURTHERMORE...THE AXIS
WILL RETROGRADE WITH TIME AND FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE THERMAL
TROUGHING INFLUENCE OVER THE MID STATE. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUES AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE DRY
AIRMASS CONTRIBUTES TO COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  96  69 /   0  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    93  73  94  66 /   0  10  30  30
CROSSVILLE     86  68  90  67 /   0  10  20  40
COLUMBIA       94  74  96  71 /   0  10  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   93  73  95  71 /   0  05  10  40
WAVERLY        93  74  95  67 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 260411
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1111 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS DIRECTION FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH MID STATE ON EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DIED OUT COMPLEX CONTINUES TO THIN
OUT ACROSS THE AREA. AM EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ALONG PLATEAU IN THE
LATE NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT CROSSVILLE AFTER 08Z.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 260411
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1111 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS DIRECTION FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH MID STATE ON EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DIED OUT COMPLEX CONTINUES TO THIN
OUT ACROSS THE AREA. AM EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ALONG PLATEAU IN THE
LATE NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT CROSSVILLE AFTER 08Z.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260219
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
919 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS FIELD CONTINUING TO THIN OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
AND WEST TENNESSEE SO WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS AS FORECAST. DID TWEAK
SKY GRIDS TO A LOWER PERCENTAGE OF COVER FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATED
ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260219
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
919 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS FIELD CONTINUING TO THIN OUT ACROSS MIDDLE
AND WEST TENNESSEE SO WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS AS FORECAST. DID TWEAK
SKY GRIDS TO A LOWER PERCENTAGE OF COVER FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATED
ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 260020
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
720 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS HAS MOVED DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THAT WAS LEFT OVER FROM COMPLEX THAT DIED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
ABOUT 3 HOURS AGO. 00Z OHX RAOB SHOWING A DRY AIR MASS WITH A GOOD
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 850 MBARS. WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK.
LOOK FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG ALONG THE PLATEAU TAKING VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE AT CROSSVILLE. ALL IN ALL GOOD
FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 252150
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
450 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
IN REGARDS TO COMPLEX CURRENTLY WORKING ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE AND NOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY LAST HOUR OR TWO WITH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES LAST
HALF HOUR. COMPLEX NOW MOVING INTO A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WITH LOTS
OF SUBSIDENCE. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DYING COMPLEX WILL WORK DOWN
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 252150
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
450 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
IN REGARDS TO COMPLEX CURRENTLY WORKING ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE AND NOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY LAST HOUR OR TWO WITH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES LAST
HALF HOUR. COMPLEX NOW MOVING INTO A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WITH LOTS
OF SUBSIDENCE. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DYING COMPLEX WILL WORK DOWN
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251958
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN IRREGULAR SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.  THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD BRING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S.  THIS RIDGING ALOFT...AS WELL AS AT THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SOMEWHAT OF A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN THESE
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE WARM...BUT DEW POINTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THE
MOISTURE SHOULD START INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THAT APPROACHING FRONT.  THE EVOLUTION OF SUNDAY`S
WEATHER WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT.  THE OUTFLOW FROM THAT MCS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-STATE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT
AMONGST 1500-2000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPES AND VERY DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL MIDDLE
TENNESSEE EXPERIENCE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL
THAT SQUELCH THE EXPECTED CAPES VALUES?  HAVE MAINTAINED SUNDAY
HIGHS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MAV AND MEX GUIDANCE FOR THIS
CLOUD COVER...BUT THE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS AND THE SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD STILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.  WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND PWS OF 1.75 TO 1.85 INCHES MEANS
WOULD MEAN A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL.

WHILE THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES AOB 100
DEGREES SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY SO IF YOU HAVE
WEEKEND PLANS...MAKE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE HEAT.

ANOTHER CP AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY BEHIND
SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT.  HAVE TAMPED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED ON THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.  WHILE I DON`T
EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN...WE WILL STILL LIKELY RUN 7-9
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BY WEEK`S END...WE SHOULD WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
BUT TROUGHING ALOFT SHOULD WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG AT CSV BY 05Z AND BECOMING IFR VIS
OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AT CKV/BNA...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
THERE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR CALM THIS EVENING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      64  94  72  94 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    61  93  73  93 /   0   0  20  30
CROSSVILLE     58  85  68  88 /   0   0  10  20
COLUMBIA       62  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   63  92  71  93 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        62  93  73  93 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251958
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN IRREGULAR SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.  THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD BRING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S.  THIS RIDGING ALOFT...AS WELL AS AT THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SOMEWHAT OF A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN THESE
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE WARM...BUT DEW POINTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THE
MOISTURE SHOULD START INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THAT APPROACHING FRONT.  THE EVOLUTION OF SUNDAY`S
WEATHER WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN MCS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT.  THE OUTFLOW FROM THAT MCS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-STATE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT
AMONGST 1500-2000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPES AND VERY DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL MIDDLE
TENNESSEE EXPERIENCE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL
THAT SQUELCH THE EXPECTED CAPES VALUES?  HAVE MAINTAINED SUNDAY
HIGHS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MAV AND MEX GUIDANCE FOR THIS
CLOUD COVER...BUT THE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS AND THE SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD STILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.  WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND PWS OF 1.75 TO 1.85 INCHES MEANS
WOULD MEAN A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL.

WHILE THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES AOB 100
DEGREES SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY SO IF YOU HAVE
WEEKEND PLANS...MAKE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE HEAT.

ANOTHER CP AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY BEHIND
SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT.  HAVE TAMPED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED ON THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.  WHILE I DON`T
EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN...WE WILL STILL LIKELY RUN 7-9
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BY WEEK`S END...WE SHOULD WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
BUT TROUGHING ALOFT SHOULD WEAKEN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG AT CSV BY 05Z AND BECOMING IFR VIS
OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AT CKV/BNA...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
THERE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR CALM THIS EVENING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      64  94  72  94 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    61  93  73  93 /   0   0  20  30
CROSSVILLE     58  85  68  88 /   0   0  10  20
COLUMBIA       62  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   63  92  71  93 /   0   0  05  10
WAVERLY        62  93  73  93 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251738
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG AT CSV BY 05Z AND BECOMING IFR VIS
OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AT CKV/BNA...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
THERE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR CALM THIS EVENING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY WITH ALL OBS NOW IN
THE 70S...AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ON
TRACK. ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE FOG AND TWEAK GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...FOG AND LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFR CONDITIONS
AT CSV THROUGH 13Z, IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 1430Z, AND THEN TO VFR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z, DETERIORATING TO IFR BY 0730Z.

AT BNA AND CKV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251738
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG AT CSV BY 05Z AND BECOMING IFR VIS
OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AT CKV/BNA...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
THERE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR CALM THIS EVENING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY WITH ALL OBS NOW IN
THE 70S...AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ON
TRACK. ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE FOG AND TWEAK GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...FOG AND LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFR CONDITIONS
AT CSV THROUGH 13Z, IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 1430Z, AND THEN TO VFR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z, DETERIORATING TO IFR BY 0730Z.

AT BNA AND CKV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251510
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY WITH ALL OBS NOW IN
THE 70S...AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ON
TRACK. ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE FOG AND TWEAK GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...FOG AND LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFR CONDITIONS
AT CSV THROUGH 13Z, IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 1430Z, AND THEN TO VFR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z, DETERIORATING TO IFR BY 0730Z.

AT BNA AND CKV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251510
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY WITH ALL OBS NOW IN
THE 70S...AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ON
TRACK. ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE FOG AND TWEAK GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...FOG AND LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFR CONDITIONS
AT CSV THROUGH 13Z, IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 1430Z, AND THEN TO VFR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z, DETERIORATING TO IFR BY 0730Z.

AT BNA AND CKV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






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