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000
FXUS64 KOHX 201710
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1210 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL BEGIN CLOSING IN ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARDS
THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN BY 14-16Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY UNDERWAY HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS DOMINATING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO RIGHT AROUND 80 FOR A
FEW. FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27









000
FXUS64 KOHX 201710
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1210 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL BEGIN CLOSING IN ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARDS
THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN BY 14-16Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY UNDERWAY HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS DOMINATING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO RIGHT AROUND 80 FOR A
FEW. FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 201520
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1020 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY UNDERWAY HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS DOMINATING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO RIGHT AROUND 80 FOR A
FEW. FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL OCCUR AT CSV UNTIL 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201520
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1020 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY UNDERWAY HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS DOMINATING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO RIGHT AROUND 80 FOR A
FEW. FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL OCCUR AT CSV UNTIL 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 201127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL OCCUR AT CSV UNTIL 14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...EASTER SUNDAY IS STARTING ON A QUIET AND COOL NOTE,
WITH 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SUNSHINE, WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
WEATHER TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 75 AND 80
DEGREES. BNA WILL LIKELY SEE A HIGH OF 80.

UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD TONIGHT, PUTTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK
IN THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
START SWEEPING IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, AS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADS OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FA SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE MID STATE EARLY TUESDAY, AND THEN PUSHES
EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND SINCE
LOW LEVEL JET IS SO WEAK DON`T EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS WELL, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST.
STRONG WARM TONGUE DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THURSDAY HIGHS LIKELY TO TOP 80
DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOOK FOR
LOWER 80S IN THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND BRING A LOW LEVEL JET THAT`S A BIT HEALTHIER THAN
THE ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY-WEEK FRONT. GFS SHOWS A 40-45KT
JET POSSIBLE WITH THAT SYSTEM, SO A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM...AFTER COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE BY
FRIDAY EVENING, DRIER AIR SHOULD SWEEP IN AND GIVE US A DRY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT FRONT COULD COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BRING ALONG AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL OCCUR AT CSV UNTIL 14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...EASTER SUNDAY IS STARTING ON A QUIET AND COOL NOTE,
WITH 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SUNSHINE, WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
WEATHER TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 75 AND 80
DEGREES. BNA WILL LIKELY SEE A HIGH OF 80.

UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD TONIGHT, PUTTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK
IN THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
START SWEEPING IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, AS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADS OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FA SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE MID STATE EARLY TUESDAY, AND THEN PUSHES
EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND SINCE
LOW LEVEL JET IS SO WEAK DON`T EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS WELL, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST.
STRONG WARM TONGUE DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THURSDAY HIGHS LIKELY TO TOP 80
DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOOK FOR
LOWER 80S IN THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND BRING A LOW LEVEL JET THAT`S A BIT HEALTHIER THAN
THE ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY-WEEK FRONT. GFS SHOWS A 40-45KT
JET POSSIBLE WITH THAT SYSTEM, SO A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM...AFTER COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE BY
FRIDAY EVENING, DRIER AIR SHOULD SWEEP IN AND GIVE US A DRY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT FRONT COULD COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BRING ALONG AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 200836
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
336 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...EASTER SUNDAY IS STARTING ON A QUIET AND COOL NOTE,
WITH 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SUNSHINE, WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
WEATHER TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 75 AND 80
DEGREES. BNA WILL LIKELY SEE A HIGH OF 80.

UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD TONIGHT, PUTTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK
IN THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
START SWEEPING IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, AS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADS OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FA SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE MID STATE EARLY TUESDAY, AND THEN PUSHES
EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND SINCE
LOW LEVEL JET IS SO WEAK DON`T EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS WELL, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST.
STRONG WARM TONGUE DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THURSDAY HIGHS LIKELY TO TOP 80
DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOOK FOR
LOWER 80S IN THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND BRING A LOW LEVEL JET THAT`S A BIT HEALTHIER THAN
THE ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY-WEEK FRONT. GFS SHOWS A 40-45KT
JET POSSIBLE WITH THAT SYSTEM, SO A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...AFTER COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE BY
FRIDAY EVENING, DRIER AIR SHOULD SWEEP IN AND GIVE US A DRY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT FRONT COULD COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BRING ALONG AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  55  78  60 /   0   0  20  70
CLARKSVILLE    79  53  77  58 /   0  10  30  70
CROSSVILLE     73  48  73  56 /   0   0  20  60
COLUMBIA       79  54  78  59 /   0   0  20  60
LAWRENCEBURG   78  51  78  60 /   0   0  20  60
WAVERLY        79  53  77  58 /   0  05  30  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200836
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
336 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...EASTER SUNDAY IS STARTING ON A QUIET AND COOL NOTE,
WITH 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SUNSHINE, WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
WEATHER TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 75 AND 80
DEGREES. BNA WILL LIKELY SEE A HIGH OF 80.

UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD TONIGHT, PUTTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK
IN THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
START SWEEPING IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, AS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADS OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FA SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE MID STATE EARLY TUESDAY, AND THEN PUSHES
EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND SINCE
LOW LEVEL JET IS SO WEAK DON`T EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS WELL, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST.
STRONG WARM TONGUE DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THURSDAY HIGHS LIKELY TO TOP 80
DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOOK FOR
LOWER 80S IN THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND BRING A LOW LEVEL JET THAT`S A BIT HEALTHIER THAN
THE ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY-WEEK FRONT. GFS SHOWS A 40-45KT
JET POSSIBLE WITH THAT SYSTEM, SO A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...AFTER COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE BY
FRIDAY EVENING, DRIER AIR SHOULD SWEEP IN AND GIVE US A DRY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT FRONT COULD COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BRING ALONG AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  55  78  60 /   0   0  20  70
CLARKSVILLE    79  53  77  58 /   0  10  30  70
CROSSVILLE     73  48  73  56 /   0   0  20  60
COLUMBIA       79  54  78  59 /   0   0  20  60
LAWRENCEBURG   78  51  78  60 /   0   0  20  60
WAVERLY        79  53  77  58 /   0  05  30  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200413
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200413
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
733 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

BEAUTIFUL WARM EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. VERY
DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH 00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.42 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50...AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS. CANNOT
RULE OUT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS TOWARDS MORNING BUT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION IN
GRIDS/ZONES. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS VERY PLEASANT EASTER WEATHER SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.

UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST EASTER SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
733 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

BEAUTIFUL WARM EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. VERY
DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH 00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.42 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50...AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS. CANNOT
RULE OUT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS TOWARDS MORNING BUT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION IN
GRIDS/ZONES. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS VERY PLEASANT EASTER WEATHER SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.

UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST EASTER SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
724 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS VERY PLEASANT EASTER WEATHER SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.

UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST EASTER SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN U.S.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
724 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS VERY PLEASANT EASTER WEATHER SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.

UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST EASTER SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN U.S.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191958
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
258 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS THE STORM SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT
RAINFALL TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF HERE...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES. GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN A GOOD BIT ON SUNDAY SO WE WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL.

GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...WILL STILL SEE TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT FOR MANY AREAS. BUT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCH
UP.

ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

IN THE EXT FCST...THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS NICE AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTROLS THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE GENERALLY ELEVATED HEIGHTS WITH A TENDENCY
TOWARD RIDGING. THUS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
WHILE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

BY THE END OF THE WEAK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STILL
NOT LOOKING LIKE A REAL GOOD SEVERE SPRING EVENT AS THE MID LEVEL
JET STAYS NORTH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITIES ARE INCREASING FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND I WONT BE SURPRISED IF STRONG STORMS DO NOT BECOME
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY WITH FUTURE RUNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  77  54  78 /   0   0   0  20
CLARKSVILLE    48  77  52  77 /   0   0  10  30
CROSSVILLE     45  72  49  73 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA       48  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   46  76  51  78 /   0   0   0  20
WAVERLY        48  77  53  77 /   0   0  05  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191958
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
258 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS THE STORM SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT
RAINFALL TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF HERE...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES. GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN A GOOD BIT ON SUNDAY SO WE WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL.

GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...WILL STILL SEE TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT FOR MANY AREAS. BUT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARMING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCH
UP.

ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

IN THE EXT FCST...THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS NICE AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTROLS THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE GENERALLY ELEVATED HEIGHTS WITH A TENDENCY
TOWARD RIDGING. THUS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
WHILE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

BY THE END OF THE WEAK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STILL
NOT LOOKING LIKE A REAL GOOD SEVERE SPRING EVENT AS THE MID LEVEL
JET STAYS NORTH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITIES ARE INCREASING FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND I WONT BE SURPRISED IF STRONG STORMS DO NOT BECOME
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY WITH FUTURE RUNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  77  54  78 /   0   0   0  20
CLARKSVILLE    48  77  52  77 /   0   0  10  30
CROSSVILLE     45  72  49  73 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA       48  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   46  76  51  78 /   0   0   0  20
WAVERLY        48  77  53  77 /   0   0  05  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191708
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL
FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NE FLORIDA ARE
STARTING TO SLIDE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
IS WRAPPING AROUND THE FEATURE AND GIVING THE EASTERN HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA IS ENGULFED IN SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN A
LITTLE FASTER IN THE WEST. THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM DOES THE SAME ALLOWING FOR
THE EAST TO WARM UP AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO I WON`T MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL HIGHS FOR TODAY...JUST THE HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATES ARE ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191708
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL
FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NE FLORIDA ARE
STARTING TO SLIDE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
IS WRAPPING AROUND THE FEATURE AND GIVING THE EASTERN HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA IS ENGULFED IN SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN A
LITTLE FASTER IN THE WEST. THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM DOES THE SAME ALLOWING FOR
THE EAST TO WARM UP AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO I WON`T MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL HIGHS FOR TODAY...JUST THE HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATES ARE ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 191529
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1029 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NE FLORIDA ARE
STARTING TO SLIDE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
IS WRAPPING AROUND THE FEATURE AND GIVING THE EASTERN HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA IS ENGULFED IN SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN A
LITTLE FASTER IN THE WEST. THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM DOES THE SAME ALLOWING FOR
THE EAST TO WARM UP AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO I WON`T MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL HIGHS FOR TODAY...JUST THE HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATES ARE ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PUSHES INTO TN. NNE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TO 20KT AT TIMES TODAY...SETTLING TO LESS THAN 5KT
TONIGHT.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 191529
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1029 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NE FLORIDA ARE
STARTING TO SLIDE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
IS WRAPPING AROUND THE FEATURE AND GIVING THE EASTERN HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA IS ENGULFED IN SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN A
LITTLE FASTER IN THE WEST. THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM DOES THE SAME ALLOWING FOR
THE EAST TO WARM UP AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO I WON`T MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL HIGHS FOR TODAY...JUST THE HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATES ARE ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PUSHES INTO TN. NNE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TO 20KT AT TIMES TODAY...SETTLING TO LESS THAN 5KT
TONIGHT.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PUSHES INTO TN. NNE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 20KT AT TIMES TODAY...SETTLING TO LESS THAN
5KT TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA STILL
THROWING CIRRUS NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER,
NORTHERN EDGE OF ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA AND SHOULD PULL FURTHER AWAY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY COMING UP, ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS
NICE AS WELL, WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, PUTTING US IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND VULNERABLE TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BY SUNRISE MONDAY, EXPECT BKN CLOUDS OVER
AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREA-WIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMES MONDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z TUESDAY,
AND THEN PUSH TO OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST, RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH. LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO MODEST WITH THE MON/TUE
EVENT, MEANING THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...AFTER SEVERAL WARM, DRY DAYS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS MAY BE A BIT BETTER BY THEN AND ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. IN ADDITION, CAPES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE BIT HEALTHIER WITH THE LATE WEEK EVENT (IE, AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS).

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PUSHES INTO TN. NNE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 20KT AT TIMES TODAY...SETTLING TO LESS THAN
5KT TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA STILL
THROWING CIRRUS NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER,
NORTHERN EDGE OF ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA AND SHOULD PULL FURTHER AWAY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY COMING UP, ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS
NICE AS WELL, WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, PUTTING US IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND VULNERABLE TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BY SUNRISE MONDAY, EXPECT BKN CLOUDS OVER
AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREA-WIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMES MONDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z TUESDAY,
AND THEN PUSH TO OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST, RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH. LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO MODEST WITH THE MON/TUE
EVENT, MEANING THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...AFTER SEVERAL WARM, DRY DAYS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS MAY BE A BIT BETTER BY THEN AND ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. IN ADDITION, CAPES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE BIT HEALTHIER WITH THE LATE WEEK EVENT (IE, AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS).

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 190847
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
347 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA STILL
THROWING CIRRUS NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER,
NORTHERN EDGE OF ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA AND SHOULD PULL FURTHER AWAY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY COMING UP, ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS
NICE AS WELL, WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, PUTTING US IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND VULNERABLE TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BY SUNRISE MONDAY, EXPECT BKN CLOUDS OVER
AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREA-WIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMES MONDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z TUESDAY,
AND THEN PUSH TO OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST, RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH. LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO MODEST WITH THE MON/TUE
EVENT, MEANING THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...AFTER SEVERAL WARM, DRY DAYS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS MAY BE A BIT BETTER BY THEN AND ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. IN ADDITION, CAPES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE BIT HEALTHIER WITH THE LATE WEEK EVENT (IE, AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  50  78  56 /  05  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    75  46  78  54 /  05  05  05  10
CROSSVILLE     70  45  73  50 /  05  05  05  10
COLUMBIA       75  50  78  54 /  05  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   75  49  78  54 /  05  05  05  10
WAVERLY        75  49  78  57 /  05  05  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190847
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
347 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA STILL
THROWING CIRRUS NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER,
NORTHERN EDGE OF ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA AND SHOULD PULL FURTHER AWAY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY COMING UP, ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS
NICE AS WELL, WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, PUTTING US IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND VULNERABLE TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BY SUNRISE MONDAY, EXPECT BKN CLOUDS OVER
AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREA-WIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMES MONDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z TUESDAY,
AND THEN PUSH TO OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST, RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH. LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO MODEST WITH THE MON/TUE
EVENT, MEANING THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...AFTER SEVERAL WARM, DRY DAYS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS MAY BE A BIT BETTER BY THEN AND ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. IN ADDITION, CAPES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE BIT HEALTHIER WITH THE LATE WEEK EVENT (IE, AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  50  78  56 /  05  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    75  46  78  54 /  05  05  05  10
CROSSVILLE     70  45  73  50 /  05  05  05  10
COLUMBIA       75  50  78  54 /  05  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   75  49  78  54 /  05  05  05  10
WAVERLY        75  49  78  57 /  05  05  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 190430
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1130 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW SPINS OUT ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190430
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1130 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW SPINS OUT ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 190033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
733 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. COASTAL LOW TO
CONTINUE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FL/GA ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD REMAINING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA. STRENGTHENING NE LLJ TONIGHT INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE
EXPECTED TO KEEP/INCREASE LIGHT WIND AT THE SFC AND NEGATE FOG
FORMATION. LOW/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALL WELL
COVERED.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 190033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
733 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. COASTAL LOW TO
CONTINUE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FL/GA ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD REMAINING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA. STRENGTHENING NE LLJ TONIGHT INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE
EXPECTED TO KEEP/INCREASE LIGHT WIND AT THE SFC AND NEGATE FOG
FORMATION. LOW/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALL WELL
COVERED.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST IS PROGGED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WHILE
KEEPING RAIN SHIELD WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 182116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
416 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SPENT TODAY MOVING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ENE. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH 69 THE LAST HOUR IN
SPITE OF THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SO STILL A PLEASANT DAY OUT MINUS
THE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING. THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES. CLOUDS SHOULD
ERODE FROM THE WEST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW TIGHTENS AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...PULLING ANY PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
WITH IT. EXPECTING A PLEASANT WEEKEND AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TO TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTRODUCING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY... THEN SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED AFTER 00Z TUESDAY INDICATING
SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE MID STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW FOR
SEASONABLE OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WPC 5 DAY QPF INDICATES ONLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FROM NOW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  75  51  78 /  10  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  75  48  78 /  10  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     47  68  47  73 /  20  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       49  75  51  78 /  10  05  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   49  75  50  78 /  10  05  05  05
WAVERLY        48  75  49  78 /  10  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
416 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SPENT TODAY MOVING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ENE. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH 69 THE LAST HOUR IN
SPITE OF THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SO STILL A PLEASANT DAY OUT MINUS
THE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING. THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES. CLOUDS SHOULD
ERODE FROM THE WEST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW TIGHTENS AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...PULLING ANY PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
WITH IT. EXPECTING A PLEASANT WEEKEND AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TO TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTRODUCING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY... THEN SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED AFTER 00Z TUESDAY INDICATING
SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE MID STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW FOR
SEASONABLE OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WPC 5 DAY QPF INDICATES ONLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FROM NOW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  75  51  78 /  10  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  75  48  78 /  10  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     47  68  47  73 /  20  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       49  75  51  78 /  10  05  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   49  75  50  78 /  10  05  05  05
WAVERLY        48  75  49  78 /  10  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 181722
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ON OFF TO THE ENE AND TAKE THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE HOWEVER...A NEARLY CLOSED BUT
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH 00Z AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER. CHANCES HOWEVER ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN SUPPORT A VCNTY
MENTION. OTW...LOOK FOR CLEARING TO COMMENCE AFT 00Z. LITTLE IF
ANY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE 12Z-18Z
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BOTH AL AND GA. JUST A
FEW LIGHT ECHOS INDICATED IN MIDDLE TN ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ENE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. STILL THOUGH...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE
AND THERE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIRTUALLY CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA. THE AXIS BY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND NE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SO,,,I WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.
OTW...TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL REISSUE UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181722
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ON OFF TO THE ENE AND TAKE THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE HOWEVER...A NEARLY CLOSED BUT
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH 00Z AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER. CHANCES HOWEVER ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN SUPPORT A VCNTY
MENTION. OTW...LOOK FOR CLEARING TO COMMENCE AFT 00Z. LITTLE IF
ANY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE 12Z-18Z
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BOTH AL AND GA. JUST A
FEW LIGHT ECHOS INDICATED IN MIDDLE TN ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ENE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. STILL THOUGH...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE
AND THERE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIRTUALLY CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA. THE AXIS BY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND NE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SO,,,I WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.
OTW...TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL REISSUE UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 181436
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BOTH AL AND GA. JUST A
FEW LIGHT ECHOS INDICATED IN MIDDLE TN ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ENE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. STILL THOUGH...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE
AND THERE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIRTUALLY CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA. THE AXIS BY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND NE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SO,,,I WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.
OTW...TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL REISSUE UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 181436
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BOTH AL AND GA. JUST A
FEW LIGHT ECHOS INDICATED IN MIDDLE TN ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ENE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. STILL THOUGH...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE
AND THERE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIRTUALLY CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA. THE AXIS BY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND NE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SO,,,I WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.
OTW...TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL REISSUE UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181122
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 181122
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180851
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  50  75  49 /  20  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    69  48  74  47 /  30  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     64  47  67  44 /  20  20  05  05
COLUMBIA       68  49  75  48 /  20  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   67  48  75  47 /  20  10  05  05
WAVERLY        69  48  75  47 /  30  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 180851
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  50  75  49 /  20  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    69  48  74  47 /  30  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     64  47  67  44 /  20  20  05  05
COLUMBIA       68  49  75  48 /  20  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   67  48  75  47 /  20  10  05  05
WAVERLY        69  48  75  47 /  30  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER NEXT 12
HOURS. LOWER 5KFT CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER NEXT 12
HOURS. LOWER 5KFT CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TB12







000
FXUS64 KOHX 180214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 180214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 172324
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TBMEMCLIOHX 000
TTAA00 KOHX 170048

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 172013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  69  49  75 /  10  20  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  69  47  74 /  20  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     41  64  46  69 /  10  20  10  05
COLUMBIA       48  68  48  75 /  10  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   48  67  47  75 /  20  20  10  05
WAVERLY        48  69  47  75 /  20  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 172013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.

TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  69  49  75 /  10  20  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  69  47  74 /  20  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     41  64  46  69 /  10  20  10  05
COLUMBIA       48  68  48  75 /  10  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   48  67  47  75 /  20  20  10  05
WAVERLY        48  69  47  75 /  20  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







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