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000
FXUS64 KOHX 021116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
516 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...BNA AND CKV WILL HAVE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...WITH CSV STAYING MOSTLY IFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NE NEAR 10KT
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP. CIGS
WILL LOWER AGAIN...MAINLY MVFR...AND SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP LATE IN
THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED ALONG THE PLATEAU
AND SOUTHEAST...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG FARTHER WEST. THE RAIN
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE AROUND FREEZING ALONG
THE NORTH TIER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A PATCH OF ICE HERE OR
THERE...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS FALLING IN THE FREEZING
TEMPS...AND NO MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO MID TN. THE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUR MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WX AS
MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO MID TN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING LIFT
ACROSS THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW PREVAILING BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WITH SOME SLEET) COULD ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME WE THINK INTO
WARNING CRITERIA (MORE THAN 3)...BUT WE WANT TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH...MAYBE LATER TODAY IF MODEL
SUPPORT CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE SOME ICE POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
EVENT LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW THAN ICE FOR MID TN. MANY QUESTIONS
REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE...BUT WE ARE
HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS UNDER PERFORM...THIS
EVENT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS AS POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET...AND ROADS BECOME SNOW/ICE COVERED AND SLICK. IMPACTS
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE FAR EXTENDED...SO BLENDING WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOPING NEXT
WEEKEND.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 021116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
516 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...BNA AND CKV WILL HAVE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...WITH CSV STAYING MOSTLY IFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NE NEAR 10KT
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP. CIGS
WILL LOWER AGAIN...MAINLY MVFR...AND SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP LATE IN
THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED ALONG THE PLATEAU
AND SOUTHEAST...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG FARTHER WEST. THE RAIN
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE AROUND FREEZING ALONG
THE NORTH TIER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A PATCH OF ICE HERE OR
THERE...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS FALLING IN THE FREEZING
TEMPS...AND NO MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO MID TN. THE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUR MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WX AS
MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO MID TN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING LIFT
ACROSS THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW PREVAILING BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WITH SOME SLEET) COULD ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME WE THINK INTO
WARNING CRITERIA (MORE THAN 3)...BUT WE WANT TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH...MAYBE LATER TODAY IF MODEL
SUPPORT CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE SOME ICE POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
EVENT LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW THAN ICE FOR MID TN. MANY QUESTIONS
REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE...BUT WE ARE
HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS UNDER PERFORM...THIS
EVENT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS AS POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET...AND ROADS BECOME SNOW/ICE COVERED AND SLICK. IMPACTS
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE FAR EXTENDED...SO BLENDING WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOPING NEXT
WEEKEND.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 020918
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF FORECAST COMPLICATIONS THIS MORNING...SO LIMITED TIME TO
GET THE DISCUSSION OUT. WE MAY ISSUE SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
LATER THIS MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED ALONG THE PLATEAU AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG FARTHER WEST. THE RAIN
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE
NORTH TIER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A PATCH OF ICE HERE OR THERE...BUT
NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS FALLING IN THE FREEZING TEMPS...AND NO
MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO MID TN. THE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUR MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WX AS
MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO MID TN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING LIFT
ACROSS THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW PREVAILING BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WITH SOME SLEET) COULD ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME WE THINK INTO
WARNING CRITERIA (MORE THAN 3)...BUT WE WANT TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH...MAYBE LATER TODAY IF MODEL
SUPPORT CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE SOME ICE POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
EVENT LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW THAN ICE FOR MID TN. MANY QUESTIONS
REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE...BUT WE ARE
HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS UNDER PERFORM...THIS
EVENT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS AS POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET...AND ROADS BECOME SNOW/ICE COVERED AND SLICK. IMPACTS
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE FAR EXTENDED...SO BLENDING WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOPING NEXT
WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  37  63  45 /  10  50  70 100
CLARKSVILLE    41  35  60  34 /  10  50  80 100
CROSSVILLE     42  37  56  54 /  20  50  80 100
COLUMBIA       43  37  64  50 /  30  50  70 100
LAWRENCEBURG   43  38  64  53 /  50  50  60 100
WAVERLY        43  38  62  40 /  10  50  80 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 020918
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF FORECAST COMPLICATIONS THIS MORNING...SO LIMITED TIME TO
GET THE DISCUSSION OUT. WE MAY ISSUE SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
LATER THIS MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED ALONG THE PLATEAU AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG FARTHER WEST. THE RAIN
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE
NORTH TIER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A PATCH OF ICE HERE OR THERE...BUT
NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS FALLING IN THE FREEZING TEMPS...AND NO
MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO MID TN. THE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUR MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WX AS
MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO MID TN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING LIFT
ACROSS THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW PREVAILING BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WITH SOME SLEET) COULD ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME WE THINK INTO
WARNING CRITERIA (MORE THAN 3)...BUT WE WANT TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH...MAYBE LATER TODAY IF MODEL
SUPPORT CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE SOME ICE POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
EVENT LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW THAN ICE FOR MID TN. MANY QUESTIONS
REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE...BUT WE ARE
HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS UNDER PERFORM...THIS
EVENT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS AS POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET...AND ROADS BECOME SNOW/ICE COVERED AND SLICK. IMPACTS
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE FAR EXTENDED...SO BLENDING WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOPING NEXT
WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  37  63  45 /  10  50  70 100
CLARKSVILLE    41  35  60  34 /  10  50  80 100
CROSSVILLE     42  37  56  54 /  20  50  80 100
COLUMBIA       43  37  64  50 /  30  50  70 100
LAWRENCEBURG   43  38  64  53 /  50  50  60 100
WAVERLY        43  38  62  40 /  10  50  80 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 020529
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS POSSIBLE AT CLARKSVILLE`S OUTLAW FIELD
AFTER 08Z...

POOR FLYING WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH CEILINGS GOING MVFR AROUND 18Z MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL END FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING BUT MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
MID STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 020529
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS POSSIBLE AT CLARKSVILLE`S OUTLAW FIELD
AFTER 08Z...

POOR FLYING WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH CEILINGS GOING MVFR AROUND 18Z MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL END FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING BUT MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
MID STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 020529
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS POSSIBLE AT CLARKSVILLE`S OUTLAW FIELD
AFTER 08Z...

POOR FLYING WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH CEILINGS GOING MVFR AROUND 18Z MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL END FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING BUT MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
MID STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 020529
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS POSSIBLE AT CLARKSVILLE`S OUTLAW FIELD
AFTER 08Z...

POOR FLYING WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH CEILINGS GOING MVFR AROUND 18Z MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL END FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING BUT MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
MID STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 020234
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. OHX BASE
VELOCITY SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A WAVERLY TO
OAK GROVE LINE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PLACES. CURRENT ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
KYDOT ARE IN THE MID 40S PER KYDOT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ICY
ROAD ISSUES EXCEPT ON PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SECONDARY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF ICE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. WILL REISSUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z
NAM...18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...21Z SREF AND WPC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID
STATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR EARLY MARCH MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING AREAS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS STILL REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND COULD
EASILY CHANGE...AS OF NOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE
CWA COULD GO THROUGH ALL PHASES OF PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW AS THE INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DEEPENS. MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT
ON TIMING WITH FRONT...WITH GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST...AND THIS
ALONG WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AT 700MB WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP ENDS UP PREVAILING AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
ATTM...SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED!

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
..POOR FLYING WEATHER OVERNGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z THEN IMPROVING AT CLARKSVILLE
AND NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE GOING MVFR AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WIND
GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY AS SURFACE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 020234
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. OHX BASE
VELOCITY SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A WAVERLY TO
OAK GROVE LINE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PLACES. CURRENT ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
KYDOT ARE IN THE MID 40S PER KYDOT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ICY
ROAD ISSUES EXCEPT ON PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SECONDARY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF ICE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. WILL REISSUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z
NAM...18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...21Z SREF AND WPC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID
STATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR EARLY MARCH MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING AREAS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS STILL REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND COULD
EASILY CHANGE...AS OF NOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE
CWA COULD GO THROUGH ALL PHASES OF PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW AS THE INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DEEPENS. MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT
ON TIMING WITH FRONT...WITH GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST...AND THIS
ALONG WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AT 700MB WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP ENDS UP PREVAILING AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
ATTM...SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED!

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
..POOR FLYING WEATHER OVERNGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z THEN IMPROVING AT CLARKSVILLE
AND NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE GOING MVFR AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WIND
GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY AS SURFACE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 020038
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER OVERNGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z THEN IMPROVING AT CLARKSVILLE
AND NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE GOING MVFR AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WIND
GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY AS SURFACE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 020038
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING WEATHER OVERNGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z THEN IMPROVING AT CLARKSVILLE
AND NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE GOING MVFR AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WIND
GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY AS SURFACE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 012057
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
257 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT RAINS CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  CURRENTLY DRAPED
FROM CINCINNATI TO MEMPHIS...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BREAK INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HELP TEMPERATURES START
TO FALL OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND AS
THE RAIN TRIES TO COME TO AND END ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP ELEVATED WARM
LAYER WILL OPEN UP SEVERAL AREAS IN THE MID-STATE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE. QPFS REMAIN VERY LIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 40S...I DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. IF WE DO
SEE ANY ICE ACCRETION IT MIGHT BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND TREE LIMBS. ROAD SURFACES SHOULD REMAIN UNIMPACTED.
FOR THIS REASON...PLUS A LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THERE BEING ENOUGH
QPF FOR ICE ACCRETION...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ATTM. IF TRENDS LEAN THAT WAY THIS EVENING...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ONE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF QPFS GET ANY HIGHER THAN THE
CURRENT HUNDREDTH OR TWO.

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES MONDAY
WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.  THE
WARM FRONT IS PART OF A LATE-WINTER SYSTEM THAT MAY VERY WELL BRING
US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES WELL OFF TO THE
NW OF US.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-STATE ATTM.  NAM IS SLOWEST...GFS IS THE FASTEST AND
THE EURO SITS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.  OVERALL...I HAVE GONE WITH
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE EURO TIMING REGARDING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD VERY WELL BE THE STORY OF THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH.  MODELS ARE...AND HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN
EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  WITH MIDDLE TN RESIDING IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS 140-170 KT JET...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SPIT OUT AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF QPF IN A ENVIRONMENT SOLIDLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEDNESDAY`S FRONT. IF WE
WENT WITH A 10 TO 1 RATIO...AND EVEN ACCOUNTED FOR LATENT HEAT
RELEASE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT`S LIQUID RAINFALL...WE WOULD BE IN LINE
FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-STATE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS...THIS SET UP IS TYPICALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO THAT
KIND OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. WE USUALLY ONLY GET THOSE KIND OF SNOW
TOTALS WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING US TO THE SOUTH...MUCH LIKE LAST
WEEK. THAT SAID...DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY...I HAVE TO START
TALKING ABOUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT I`M NOT GOING TO ATTACH ANY MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES TO THE
FORECAST ATTM. PLENTY MORE TO COME REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MODELS TO FINALLY REALIZE THEY`RE OVERDOING
THE QPF AND BACK OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN HERE THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS IS GOING TO DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAIRLY STEEPLY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SOMETHING WE DIDN`T REALLY SEE LAST WEEK...SO
EVEN IF WE SEE SNOW WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET RID OF IT
PRETTY QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THEREFORE...RAINFALL AND
LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS INTO THIS EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FRZ RA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. OTW...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFT 14Z WITH CIGS RISING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      33  46  38  63 /  70  40  40  80
CLARKSVILLE    28  42  35  60 /  60  30  50  80
CROSSVILLE     31  43  37  56 /  70  50  40  80
COLUMBIA       34  43  39  64 /  80  50  50  70
LAWRENCEBURG   34  43  41  64 /  80  50  50  70
WAVERLY        31  44  39  62 /  60  40  50  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 012057
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
257 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT RAINS CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  CURRENTLY DRAPED
FROM CINCINNATI TO MEMPHIS...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BREAK INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HELP TEMPERATURES START
TO FALL OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND AS
THE RAIN TRIES TO COME TO AND END ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP ELEVATED WARM
LAYER WILL OPEN UP SEVERAL AREAS IN THE MID-STATE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE. QPFS REMAIN VERY LIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 40S...I DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. IF WE DO
SEE ANY ICE ACCRETION IT MIGHT BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND TREE LIMBS. ROAD SURFACES SHOULD REMAIN UNIMPACTED.
FOR THIS REASON...PLUS A LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THERE BEING ENOUGH
QPF FOR ICE ACCRETION...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ATTM. IF TRENDS LEAN THAT WAY THIS EVENING...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ONE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF QPFS GET ANY HIGHER THAN THE
CURRENT HUNDREDTH OR TWO.

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES MONDAY
WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.  THE
WARM FRONT IS PART OF A LATE-WINTER SYSTEM THAT MAY VERY WELL BRING
US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES WELL OFF TO THE
NW OF US.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-STATE ATTM.  NAM IS SLOWEST...GFS IS THE FASTEST AND
THE EURO SITS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.  OVERALL...I HAVE GONE WITH
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE EURO TIMING REGARDING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD VERY WELL BE THE STORY OF THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH.  MODELS ARE...AND HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN
EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  WITH MIDDLE TN RESIDING IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS 140-170 KT JET...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SPIT OUT AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF QPF IN A ENVIRONMENT SOLIDLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEDNESDAY`S FRONT. IF WE
WENT WITH A 10 TO 1 RATIO...AND EVEN ACCOUNTED FOR LATENT HEAT
RELEASE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT`S LIQUID RAINFALL...WE WOULD BE IN LINE
FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-STATE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS...THIS SET UP IS TYPICALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO THAT
KIND OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. WE USUALLY ONLY GET THOSE KIND OF SNOW
TOTALS WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING US TO THE SOUTH...MUCH LIKE LAST
WEEK. THAT SAID...DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY...I HAVE TO START
TALKING ABOUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT I`M NOT GOING TO ATTACH ANY MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES TO THE
FORECAST ATTM. PLENTY MORE TO COME REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MODELS TO FINALLY REALIZE THEY`RE OVERDOING
THE QPF AND BACK OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN HERE THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS IS GOING TO DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAIRLY STEEPLY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SOMETHING WE DIDN`T REALLY SEE LAST WEEK...SO
EVEN IF WE SEE SNOW WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET RID OF IT
PRETTY QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THEREFORE...RAINFALL AND
LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS INTO THIS EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FRZ RA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. OTW...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFT 14Z WITH CIGS RISING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      33  46  38  63 /  70  40  40  80
CLARKSVILLE    28  42  35  60 /  60  30  50  80
CROSSVILLE     31  43  37  56 /  70  50  40  80
COLUMBIA       34  43  39  64 /  80  50  50  70
LAWRENCEBURG   34  43  41  64 /  80  50  50  70
WAVERLY        31  44  39  62 /  60  40  50  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 012057
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
257 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT RAINS CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  CURRENTLY DRAPED
FROM CINCINNATI TO MEMPHIS...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BREAK INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HELP TEMPERATURES START
TO FALL OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND AS
THE RAIN TRIES TO COME TO AND END ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP ELEVATED WARM
LAYER WILL OPEN UP SEVERAL AREAS IN THE MID-STATE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE. QPFS REMAIN VERY LIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 40S...I DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. IF WE DO
SEE ANY ICE ACCRETION IT MIGHT BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND TREE LIMBS. ROAD SURFACES SHOULD REMAIN UNIMPACTED.
FOR THIS REASON...PLUS A LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THERE BEING ENOUGH
QPF FOR ICE ACCRETION...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ATTM. IF TRENDS LEAN THAT WAY THIS EVENING...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ONE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF QPFS GET ANY HIGHER THAN THE
CURRENT HUNDREDTH OR TWO.

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES MONDAY
WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.  THE
WARM FRONT IS PART OF A LATE-WINTER SYSTEM THAT MAY VERY WELL BRING
US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES WELL OFF TO THE
NW OF US.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-STATE ATTM.  NAM IS SLOWEST...GFS IS THE FASTEST AND
THE EURO SITS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.  OVERALL...I HAVE GONE WITH
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE EURO TIMING REGARDING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD VERY WELL BE THE STORY OF THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH.  MODELS ARE...AND HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN
EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  WITH MIDDLE TN RESIDING IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS 140-170 KT JET...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SPIT OUT AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF QPF IN A ENVIRONMENT SOLIDLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEDNESDAY`S FRONT. IF WE
WENT WITH A 10 TO 1 RATIO...AND EVEN ACCOUNTED FOR LATENT HEAT
RELEASE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT`S LIQUID RAINFALL...WE WOULD BE IN LINE
FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-STATE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS...THIS SET UP IS TYPICALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO THAT
KIND OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. WE USUALLY ONLY GET THOSE KIND OF SNOW
TOTALS WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING US TO THE SOUTH...MUCH LIKE LAST
WEEK. THAT SAID...DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY...I HAVE TO START
TALKING ABOUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT I`M NOT GOING TO ATTACH ANY MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES TO THE
FORECAST ATTM. PLENTY MORE TO COME REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MODELS TO FINALLY REALIZE THEY`RE OVERDOING
THE QPF AND BACK OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN HERE THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS IS GOING TO DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAIRLY STEEPLY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SOMETHING WE DIDN`T REALLY SEE LAST WEEK...SO
EVEN IF WE SEE SNOW WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET RID OF IT
PRETTY QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THEREFORE...RAINFALL AND
LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS INTO THIS EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FRZ RA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. OTW...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFT 14Z WITH CIGS RISING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      33  46  38  63 /  70  40  40  80
CLARKSVILLE    28  42  35  60 /  60  30  50  80
CROSSVILLE     31  43  37  56 /  70  50  40  80
COLUMBIA       34  43  39  64 /  80  50  50  70
LAWRENCEBURG   34  43  41  64 /  80  50  50  70
WAVERLY        31  44  39  62 /  60  40  50  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 012057
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
257 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT RAINS CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  CURRENTLY DRAPED
FROM CINCINNATI TO MEMPHIS...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BREAK INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HELP TEMPERATURES START
TO FALL OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND AS
THE RAIN TRIES TO COME TO AND END ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP ELEVATED WARM
LAYER WILL OPEN UP SEVERAL AREAS IN THE MID-STATE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE. QPFS REMAIN VERY LIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 40S...I DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. IF WE DO
SEE ANY ICE ACCRETION IT MIGHT BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND TREE LIMBS. ROAD SURFACES SHOULD REMAIN UNIMPACTED.
FOR THIS REASON...PLUS A LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THERE BEING ENOUGH
QPF FOR ICE ACCRETION...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ATTM. IF TRENDS LEAN THAT WAY THIS EVENING...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ONE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF QPFS GET ANY HIGHER THAN THE
CURRENT HUNDREDTH OR TWO.

A GENERALLY WET PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES MONDAY
WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.  THE
WARM FRONT IS PART OF A LATE-WINTER SYSTEM THAT MAY VERY WELL BRING
US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES WELL OFF TO THE
NW OF US.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-STATE ATTM.  NAM IS SLOWEST...GFS IS THE FASTEST AND
THE EURO SITS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.  OVERALL...I HAVE GONE WITH
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE EURO TIMING REGARDING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD VERY WELL BE THE STORY OF THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH.  MODELS ARE...AND HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN
EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  WITH MIDDLE TN RESIDING IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS 140-170 KT JET...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SPIT OUT AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF QPF IN A ENVIRONMENT SOLIDLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEDNESDAY`S FRONT. IF WE
WENT WITH A 10 TO 1 RATIO...AND EVEN ACCOUNTED FOR LATENT HEAT
RELEASE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT`S LIQUID RAINFALL...WE WOULD BE IN LINE
FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-STATE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS...THIS SET UP IS TYPICALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO THAT
KIND OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. WE USUALLY ONLY GET THOSE KIND OF SNOW
TOTALS WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING US TO THE SOUTH...MUCH LIKE LAST
WEEK. THAT SAID...DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY...I HAVE TO START
TALKING ABOUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT I`M NOT GOING TO ATTACH ANY MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES TO THE
FORECAST ATTM. PLENTY MORE TO COME REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MODELS TO FINALLY REALIZE THEY`RE OVERDOING
THE QPF AND BACK OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN HERE THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.  THIS IS GOING TO DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAIRLY STEEPLY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SOMETHING WE DIDN`T REALLY SEE LAST WEEK...SO
EVEN IF WE SEE SNOW WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET RID OF IT
PRETTY QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THEREFORE...RAINFALL AND
LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS INTO THIS EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FRZ RA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. OTW...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFT 14Z WITH CIGS RISING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      33  46  38  63 /  70  40  40  80
CLARKSVILLE    28  42  35  60 /  60  30  50  80
CROSSVILLE     31  43  37  56 /  70  50  40  80
COLUMBIA       34  43  39  64 /  80  50  50  70
LAWRENCEBURG   34  43  41  64 /  80  50  50  70
WAVERLY        31  44  39  62 /  60  40  50  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 011704
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THEREFORE...RAINFALL AND
LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS INTO THIS EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FRZ RA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. OTW...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFT 14Z WITH CIGS RISING.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE TODAY
BRINGING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND FOG, LIGHT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 011704
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THEREFORE...RAINFALL AND
LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS INTO THIS EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FRZ RA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. OTW...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFT 14Z WITH CIGS RISING.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE TODAY
BRINGING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND FOG, LIGHT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011704
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THEREFORE...RAINFALL AND
LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS INTO THIS EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FRZ RA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. OTW...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFT 14Z WITH CIGS RISING.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE TODAY
BRINGING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND FOG, LIGHT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 011704
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THEREFORE...RAINFALL AND
LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS INTO THIS EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FRZ RA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. OTW...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFT 14Z WITH CIGS RISING.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE TODAY
BRINGING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND FOG, LIGHT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
541 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE TODAY
BRINGING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND FOG, LIGHT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 011141
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
541 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE TODAY
BRINGING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND FOG, LIGHT RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 010953
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
353 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUED TO LIE ACROSS MID TN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY.
YESTERDAY...THIS FEATURE RESULTED IN A BIG CONTRAST IN
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HIGHS EXCEEDED OUR EXPECTATIONS SOUTHEAST
OF THE TROUGH WITH LOWER TO MID 50S...WHILE OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
TOPPED OUT ONLY NEAR 40. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WILL BE MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. EXACT HIGHS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN...AS THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...SO
WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY RAIN
IN MID TN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. EVEN WITH HIGH POPS...SOME OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
...AS THE RAIN WILL OCCUR PERIODICALLY...AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL HAVE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TODAY.

THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSED MID TN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. FOR
THE LOCATIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPS IN THE FORECAST...LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP SHOULD BE GONE BY THE TIME TEMPS BRIEFLY REACH THOSE
LEVELS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ICY SPOT HERE AND THERE OVER THE NORTH
HALF MONDAY MORNING...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS.

ON MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTH HALF.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN ACROSS MID
TN AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE OUR FIRST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SINCE MID FEB. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-25
MPH.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO MID TN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX. WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE...BUT CAPE IS
LACKING. SATURATED FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A GREATER CONCERN. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTH COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STARTING TO PLUMMET NORTHWEST OF THIS COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT
HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON POSITION OF THE FRONT. WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION..WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT FASTER THAN
THE VERY SLUGGISH...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...NAM.

13

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOW COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND IT.  WE
SHOULD START THE DAY IN NASHVILLE AROUND 47 DEGREES, BUT HIT THE
FREEZING MARK BY 3 PM WED AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, MORNING RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE 30S. OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS DROP TO FREEZING AS EARLY AS 11
AM WED. THE WEATHER GETS INCREASINGLY SLOPPY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE AND TEMPERATURES FALL.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MAINLY
JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SUNSHINE
(HOPEFULLY) MAKING A REAPPEARANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
SUN WON`T BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH OUR COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS, AND
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

LOOK FOR TRANQUIL (BUT CHILLY) WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE EARLY HINTS THAT
ANOTHER GULF LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND AND SPREAD
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, THAT`S
A LONG WAY OFF, AND WE`LL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  33  45  37 /  80  70  10  50
CLARKSVILLE    48  31  43  34 /  90  60  10  50
CROSSVILLE     48  33  44  34 /  60  70  10  40
COLUMBIA       51  35  46  39 /  80  70  20  50
LAWRENCEBURG   51  36  47  41 /  60  70  30  50
WAVERLY        49  32  44  37 /  90  70  10  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 010953
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
353 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUED TO LIE ACROSS MID TN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY.
YESTERDAY...THIS FEATURE RESULTED IN A BIG CONTRAST IN
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HIGHS EXCEEDED OUR EXPECTATIONS SOUTHEAST
OF THE TROUGH WITH LOWER TO MID 50S...WHILE OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
TOPPED OUT ONLY NEAR 40. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WILL BE MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. EXACT HIGHS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN...AS THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...SO
WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY RAIN
IN MID TN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. EVEN WITH HIGH POPS...SOME OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
...AS THE RAIN WILL OCCUR PERIODICALLY...AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL HAVE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TODAY.

THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSED MID TN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. FOR
THE LOCATIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPS IN THE FORECAST...LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP SHOULD BE GONE BY THE TIME TEMPS BRIEFLY REACH THOSE
LEVELS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ICY SPOT HERE AND THERE OVER THE NORTH
HALF MONDAY MORNING...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS.

ON MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTH HALF.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN ACROSS MID
TN AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE OUR FIRST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SINCE MID FEB. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-25
MPH.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO MID TN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX. WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE...BUT CAPE IS
LACKING. SATURATED FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A GREATER CONCERN. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTH COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STARTING TO PLUMMET NORTHWEST OF THIS COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT
HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON POSITION OF THE FRONT. WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION..WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT FASTER THAN
THE VERY SLUGGISH...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...NAM.

13

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOW COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND IT.  WE
SHOULD START THE DAY IN NASHVILLE AROUND 47 DEGREES, BUT HIT THE
FREEZING MARK BY 3 PM WED AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, MORNING RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE 30S. OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS DROP TO FREEZING AS EARLY AS 11
AM WED. THE WEATHER GETS INCREASINGLY SLOPPY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE AND TEMPERATURES FALL.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MAINLY
JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SUNSHINE
(HOPEFULLY) MAKING A REAPPEARANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
SUN WON`T BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH OUR COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS, AND
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

LOOK FOR TRANQUIL (BUT CHILLY) WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE EARLY HINTS THAT
ANOTHER GULF LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND AND SPREAD
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, THAT`S
A LONG WAY OFF, AND WE`LL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  33  45  37 /  80  70  10  50
CLARKSVILLE    48  31  43  34 /  90  60  10  50
CROSSVILLE     48  33  44  34 /  60  70  10  40
COLUMBIA       51  35  46  39 /  80  70  20  50
LAWRENCEBURG   51  36  47  41 /  60  70  30  50
WAVERLY        49  32  44  37 /  90  70  10  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 010953
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
353 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUED TO LIE ACROSS MID TN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY.
YESTERDAY...THIS FEATURE RESULTED IN A BIG CONTRAST IN
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HIGHS EXCEEDED OUR EXPECTATIONS SOUTHEAST
OF THE TROUGH WITH LOWER TO MID 50S...WHILE OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
TOPPED OUT ONLY NEAR 40. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WILL BE MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. EXACT HIGHS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN...AS THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...SO
WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY RAIN
IN MID TN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. EVEN WITH HIGH POPS...SOME OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
...AS THE RAIN WILL OCCUR PERIODICALLY...AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL HAVE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TODAY.

THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSED MID TN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. FOR
THE LOCATIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPS IN THE FORECAST...LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP SHOULD BE GONE BY THE TIME TEMPS BRIEFLY REACH THOSE
LEVELS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ICY SPOT HERE AND THERE OVER THE NORTH
HALF MONDAY MORNING...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS.

ON MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTH HALF.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN ACROSS MID
TN AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE OUR FIRST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SINCE MID FEB. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-25
MPH.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO MID TN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX. WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE...BUT CAPE IS
LACKING. SATURATED FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A GREATER CONCERN. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTH COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STARTING TO PLUMMET NORTHWEST OF THIS COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT
HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON POSITION OF THE FRONT. WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION..WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT FASTER THAN
THE VERY SLUGGISH...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...NAM.

13

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOW COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND IT.  WE
SHOULD START THE DAY IN NASHVILLE AROUND 47 DEGREES, BUT HIT THE
FREEZING MARK BY 3 PM WED AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, MORNING RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE 30S. OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS DROP TO FREEZING AS EARLY AS 11
AM WED. THE WEATHER GETS INCREASINGLY SLOPPY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE AND TEMPERATURES FALL.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MAINLY
JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SUNSHINE
(HOPEFULLY) MAKING A REAPPEARANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
SUN WON`T BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH OUR COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS, AND
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

LOOK FOR TRANQUIL (BUT CHILLY) WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE EARLY HINTS THAT
ANOTHER GULF LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND AND SPREAD
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, THAT`S
A LONG WAY OFF, AND WE`LL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  33  45  37 /  80  70  10  50
CLARKSVILLE    48  31  43  34 /  90  60  10  50
CROSSVILLE     48  33  44  34 /  60  70  10  40
COLUMBIA       51  35  46  39 /  80  70  20  50
LAWRENCEBURG   51  36  47  41 /  60  70  30  50
WAVERLY        49  32  44  37 /  90  70  10  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 010953
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
353 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUED TO LIE ACROSS MID TN THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY.
YESTERDAY...THIS FEATURE RESULTED IN A BIG CONTRAST IN
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HIGHS EXCEEDED OUR EXPECTATIONS SOUTHEAST
OF THE TROUGH WITH LOWER TO MID 50S...WHILE OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
TOPPED OUT ONLY NEAR 40. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WILL BE MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. EXACT HIGHS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN...AS THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...SO
WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY RAIN
IN MID TN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. EVEN WITH HIGH POPS...SOME OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
...AS THE RAIN WILL OCCUR PERIODICALLY...AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL HAVE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TODAY.

THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSED MID TN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. FOR
THE LOCATIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPS IN THE FORECAST...LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP SHOULD BE GONE BY THE TIME TEMPS BRIEFLY REACH THOSE
LEVELS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ICY SPOT HERE AND THERE OVER THE NORTH
HALF MONDAY MORNING...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS.

ON MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTH HALF.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN ACROSS MID
TN AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE OUR FIRST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SINCE MID FEB. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-25
MPH.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO MID TN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX. WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE...BUT CAPE IS
LACKING. SATURATED FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A GREATER CONCERN. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTH COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STARTING TO PLUMMET NORTHWEST OF THIS COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT
HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON POSITION OF THE FRONT. WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION..WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT FASTER THAN
THE VERY SLUGGISH...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...NAM.

13

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOW COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND IT.  WE
SHOULD START THE DAY IN NASHVILLE AROUND 47 DEGREES, BUT HIT THE
FREEZING MARK BY 3 PM WED AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, MORNING RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE 30S. OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS DROP TO FREEZING AS EARLY AS 11
AM WED. THE WEATHER GETS INCREASINGLY SLOPPY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE AND TEMPERATURES FALL.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MAINLY
JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SUNSHINE
(HOPEFULLY) MAKING A REAPPEARANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
SUN WON`T BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH OUR COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS, AND
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

LOOK FOR TRANQUIL (BUT CHILLY) WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE EARLY HINTS THAT
ANOTHER GULF LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND AND SPREAD
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, THAT`S
A LONG WAY OFF, AND WE`LL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  33  45  37 /  80  70  10  50
CLARKSVILLE    48  31  43  34 /  90  60  10  50
CROSSVILLE     48  33  44  34 /  60  70  10  40
COLUMBIA       51  35  46  39 /  80  70  20  50
LAWRENCEBURG   51  36  47  41 /  60  70  30  50
WAVERLY        49  32  44  37 /  90  70  10  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 010535
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPI UP THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO POOR FLYING WEATHER AS WE GO THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A WIND SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AT TERMINALS AROUND 23Z AT CLARKSVILLE...01Z AT
NASHVILLE AND 03Z AT CROSSVILLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010535
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPI UP THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO POOR FLYING WEATHER AS WE GO THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A WIND SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AT TERMINALS AROUND 23Z AT CLARKSVILLE...01Z AT
NASHVILLE AND 03Z AT CROSSVILLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 010535
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPI UP THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO POOR FLYING WEATHER AS WE GO THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A WIND SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AT TERMINALS AROUND 23Z AT CLARKSVILLE...01Z AT
NASHVILLE AND 03Z AT CROSSVILLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
813 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE IMPORTANT
ASPECT OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S WEATHER WITH AXIS RUNNING FROM LOW
CENTER IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI UP THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE NEAR
JACKSON THEN THROUGH THE CLARKSVILLE AREA WHERE TEMPS HAVE
REMAINDED IN THE 30`S WHILE AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF SURFACE TROUGH
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40`S. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING TO CRANK UP FROM
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA SIGNALLY INCREASED ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THINK MUCH OF PRECIP CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF MY CWA TONIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTHERN THIRD OF MID STATE LATE NIGHT WHICH
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SOME
REALLY STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND BEYOND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 010213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
813 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE IMPORTANT
ASPECT OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S WEATHER WITH AXIS RUNNING FROM LOW
CENTER IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI UP THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE NEAR
JACKSON THEN THROUGH THE CLARKSVILLE AREA WHERE TEMPS HAVE
REMAINDED IN THE 30`S WHILE AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF SURFACE TROUGH
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40`S. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING TO CRANK UP FROM
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA SIGNALLY INCREASED ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THINK MUCH OF PRECIP CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF MY CWA TONIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTHERN THIRD OF MID STATE LATE NIGHT WHICH
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SOME
REALLY STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND BEYOND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 282336
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MID STATE ON SOUTH END OF SYSTEM PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PICK UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 12Z AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES THIS WAY FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT GETS GOING ON THE 290 AND 295
KELVIN SURFACES. THEREFORE LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.




&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 282336
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MID STATE ON SOUTH END OF SYSTEM PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PICK UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 12Z AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES THIS WAY FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT GETS GOING ON THE 290 AND 295
KELVIN SURFACES. THEREFORE LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.




&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282336
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MID STATE ON SOUTH END OF SYSTEM PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PICK UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 12Z AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES THIS WAY FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT GETS GOING ON THE 290 AND 295
KELVIN SURFACES. THEREFORE LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.




&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282336
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MID STATE ON SOUTH END OF SYSTEM PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN THE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PICK UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 12Z AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES THIS WAY FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT GETS GOING ON THE 290 AND 295
KELVIN SURFACES. THEREFORE LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.




&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 282125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WELL FOLKS...WE ARE IN LINE AT THE AMUSEMENT PARK...READY TO HOP
ON THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE THAT WILL BE MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S
WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK. THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE EXT
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH IS LOCATED UPSTREAM...WILL MOVE OUR WAY
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO
MAKE A RUN AT US TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO
OUR SOUTH AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT.
PRIOR TO THAT TIME... SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...WE WILL SEE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE STRETCH OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST FROM TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WED
MORNING. NOT BAD...CONSIDERING THAT THIS FEBRUARY RANKS SOMEWHERE
AROUND #7 OR #8 IN TERMS OF THE COLDEST FEBRUARYS ON RECORD.

IN THE EXT FCST...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MILD AND WET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUES
AND TUES NT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED FOR
SEVERE AS INSTABILITIES LOOK MARGINAL. SOME RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OF COURSE. OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...LOOKS MINOR.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN.
MEANWHILE...PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS IS EXPECTED.
WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL SECTOR...THE MID SOUTH AND PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A VERY
STRONG 180 KT PHASED JET. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. PIECES OF
SFC ENERGY WILL THEN RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BACK UP INTO THE COLD AIR. ON
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW ACROSS MID TN.
THE SOUTHWARD PLUNGE OF THE 0C 850 MB ISOTHERM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
ENOUGH...AT THIS TIME...TO CREATE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. THE WAY IT
LOOKS RIGHT NOW IS THAT A SLEET SNOW MIX WOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SFC TROUGH INVERSION...OR PLACEMENT OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS ORIENTED MORE WSW-ENE.

ONE THING TO POINT OUT IS THAT DURING HISTORICAL MAJOR SOUTHERN
WINTER STORM EVENTS...YOU GENERALLY SEE A STRONGER SFC LOW AND/OR
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WE REALLY DONT SEE EITHER AT THIS
POINT. BUT WITH THE UPPER JET BEING THAT STRONG...STRENGTHENING OF
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY OCCUR GOING FORWARD. UNTIL WE SEE THAT HAPPEN
THOUGH...IT WILL BE BETTER TO SLOWLY RAMP THIS SITUATION UP AS THE
EVENT APPROACHES.

FOR TEMPS IN THE EXT...GFS OBVIOUSLY HAS A BUILT IN SNOW PACK
ALGORITHM AND IS GOING VERY VERY LOW WITH ITS TEMP GRAPHICS. MEX
NUMBERS MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE. CONSALL DOES SUGGEST THAT THE GFS
AND MEX ARE A LITTLE TOO QUICK WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
ANY RATE...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED AFTER TUES BUT
WE DO SEE 40S FOR HIGHS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      41  49  33  45 /  20  30  70  10
CLARKSVILLE    36  48  32  42 /  30  60  70  10
CROSSVILLE     37  46  33  43 /  20  40  70  20
COLUMBIA       40  50  35  46 /  20  40  70  20
LAWRENCEBURG   39  50  36  46 /  20  40  70  20
WAVERLY        37  49  33  44 /  30  60  70  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WELL FOLKS...WE ARE IN LINE AT THE AMUSEMENT PARK...READY TO HOP
ON THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE THAT WILL BE MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S
WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK. THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE EXT
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH IS LOCATED UPSTREAM...WILL MOVE OUR WAY
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO
MAKE A RUN AT US TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO
OUR SOUTH AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT.
PRIOR TO THAT TIME... SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...WE WILL SEE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE STRETCH OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST FROM TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WED
MORNING. NOT BAD...CONSIDERING THAT THIS FEBRUARY RANKS SOMEWHERE
AROUND #7 OR #8 IN TERMS OF THE COLDEST FEBRUARYS ON RECORD.

IN THE EXT FCST...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MILD AND WET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUES
AND TUES NT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED FOR
SEVERE AS INSTABILITIES LOOK MARGINAL. SOME RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OF COURSE. OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...LOOKS MINOR.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN.
MEANWHILE...PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS IS EXPECTED.
WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL SECTOR...THE MID SOUTH AND PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A VERY
STRONG 180 KT PHASED JET. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. PIECES OF
SFC ENERGY WILL THEN RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BACK UP INTO THE COLD AIR. ON
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW ACROSS MID TN.
THE SOUTHWARD PLUNGE OF THE 0C 850 MB ISOTHERM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
ENOUGH...AT THIS TIME...TO CREATE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. THE WAY IT
LOOKS RIGHT NOW IS THAT A SLEET SNOW MIX WOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SFC TROUGH INVERSION...OR PLACEMENT OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS ORIENTED MORE WSW-ENE.

ONE THING TO POINT OUT IS THAT DURING HISTORICAL MAJOR SOUTHERN
WINTER STORM EVENTS...YOU GENERALLY SEE A STRONGER SFC LOW AND/OR
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WE REALLY DONT SEE EITHER AT THIS
POINT. BUT WITH THE UPPER JET BEING THAT STRONG...STRENGTHENING OF
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY OCCUR GOING FORWARD. UNTIL WE SEE THAT HAPPEN
THOUGH...IT WILL BE BETTER TO SLOWLY RAMP THIS SITUATION UP AS THE
EVENT APPROACHES.

FOR TEMPS IN THE EXT...GFS OBVIOUSLY HAS A BUILT IN SNOW PACK
ALGORITHM AND IS GOING VERY VERY LOW WITH ITS TEMP GRAPHICS. MEX
NUMBERS MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE. CONSALL DOES SUGGEST THAT THE GFS
AND MEX ARE A LITTLE TOO QUICK WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT
ANY RATE...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED AFTER TUES BUT
WE DO SEE 40S FOR HIGHS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      41  49  33  45 /  20  30  70  10
CLARKSVILLE    36  48  32  42 /  30  60  70  10
CROSSVILLE     37  46  33  43 /  20  40  70  20
COLUMBIA       40  50  35  46 /  20  40  70  20
LAWRENCEBURG   39  50  36  46 /  20  40  70  20
WAVERLY        37  49  33  44 /  30  60  70  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281729
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05-06Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. LOW LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY SATURATE THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME HELPING TO LOWER CIGS
AFTER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ON OUR DOORSTEP...AND CIGS
WILL FALL OFF INTO MVFR AND IFR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT RAINS MAY
VERY WELL BE AROUND FIRST THING SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL TO
ACCOMPANY THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY TODAY...VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A
FEW TWEAK FOR DEW POINTS TRENDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. BIGGEST
THING TO WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE
THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS COMING FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND FAR NW TN. WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT NO POPS DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LACK OF ANYTHING BUT A FLURRY OR
TWO REACHING THE GROUND.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281729
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05-06Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. LOW LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY SATURATE THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME HELPING TO LOWER CIGS
AFTER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ON OUR DOORSTEP...AND CIGS
WILL FALL OFF INTO MVFR AND IFR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT RAINS MAY
VERY WELL BE AROUND FIRST THING SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL TO
ACCOMPANY THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY TODAY...VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A
FEW TWEAK FOR DEW POINTS TRENDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. BIGGEST
THING TO WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE
THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS COMING FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND FAR NW TN. WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT NO POPS DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LACK OF ANYTHING BUT A FLURRY OR
TWO REACHING THE GROUND.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281729
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05-06Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. LOW LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY SATURATE THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME HELPING TO LOWER CIGS
AFTER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ON OUR DOORSTEP...AND CIGS
WILL FALL OFF INTO MVFR AND IFR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT RAINS MAY
VERY WELL BE AROUND FIRST THING SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL TO
ACCOMPANY THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY TODAY...VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A
FEW TWEAK FOR DEW POINTS TRENDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. BIGGEST
THING TO WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE
THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS COMING FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND FAR NW TN. WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT NO POPS DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LACK OF ANYTHING BUT A FLURRY OR
TWO REACHING THE GROUND.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281729
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05-06Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. LOW LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY SATURATE THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME HELPING TO LOWER CIGS
AFTER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ON OUR DOORSTEP...AND CIGS
WILL FALL OFF INTO MVFR AND IFR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT RAINS MAY
VERY WELL BE AROUND FIRST THING SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL TO
ACCOMPANY THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY TODAY...VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A
FEW TWEAK FOR DEW POINTS TRENDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. BIGGEST
THING TO WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE
THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS COMING FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND FAR NW TN. WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT NO POPS DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LACK OF ANYTHING BUT A FLURRY OR
TWO REACHING THE GROUND.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281533
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A
FEW TWEAK FOR DEW POINTS TRENDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. BIGGEST
THING TO WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE
THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS COMING FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND FAR NW TN. WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT NO POPS DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LACK OF ANYTHING BUT A FLURRY OR
TWO REACHING THE GROUND.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...MOISTURE IN THE 800-600MB LAYER, SPREADING IN ON WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS, WILL KEEP OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THAT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, ALLOWING FOR THE
FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281533
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A
FEW TWEAK FOR DEW POINTS TRENDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. BIGGEST
THING TO WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE
THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS COMING FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND FAR NW TN. WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT NO POPS DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LACK OF ANYTHING BUT A FLURRY OR
TWO REACHING THE GROUND.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...MOISTURE IN THE 800-600MB LAYER, SPREADING IN ON WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS, WILL KEEP OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THAT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, ALLOWING FOR THE
FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281533
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A
FEW TWEAK FOR DEW POINTS TRENDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. BIGGEST
THING TO WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE
THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS COMING FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND FAR NW TN. WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT NO POPS DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LACK OF ANYTHING BUT A FLURRY OR
TWO REACHING THE GROUND.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...MOISTURE IN THE 800-600MB LAYER, SPREADING IN ON WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS, WILL KEEP OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THAT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, ALLOWING FOR THE
FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281533
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A
FEW TWEAK FOR DEW POINTS TRENDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. BIGGEST
THING TO WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ARE
THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS COMING FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL
AND FAR NW TN. WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT NO POPS DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LACK OF ANYTHING BUT A FLURRY OR
TWO REACHING THE GROUND.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...MOISTURE IN THE 800-600MB LAYER, SPREADING IN ON WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS, WILL KEEP OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THAT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, ALLOWING FOR THE
FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281147
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE IN THE 800-600MB LAYER, SPREADING IN ON WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS, WILL KEEP OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THAT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, ALLOWING FOR THE
FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281147
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE IN THE 800-600MB LAYER, SPREADING IN ON WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS, WILL KEEP OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THAT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, ALLOWING FOR THE
FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281147
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE IN THE 800-600MB LAYER, SPREADING IN ON WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS, WILL KEEP OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THAT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, ALLOWING FOR THE
FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281147
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE IN THE 800-600MB LAYER, SPREADING IN ON WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS, WILL KEEP OVC CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THAT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, ALLOWING FOR THE
FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280911
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
311 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE COMING WEEK WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE...WITH 50 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS...POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MAYBE SOME WINTRY WX. HERE WE GO...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH EXTENDED DOWN INTO MID TN WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WINDS WERE
BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY.
WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 9-10 KFT WERE OBSERVED. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS FROM THESE CLOUDS WERE NOT PRODUCING SURFACE PRECIPITATION
THANKS TO VERY DRY AIR THE LOW LEVELS...INDICATED BY DEW POINTS
AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING THE CHILLY TEMPS STEADY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

FOR TODAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE,,,WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRAW SOME
WARMER AIR INTO MID TN FROM THE SOUTH. IN SPITE OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOUT 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.
WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME RADAR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WE DO NOT THINK MUCH IF ANY WILL REACH THE GROUND.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. A CONTINUING SOUTH WIND AT LOW LEVELS WILL
BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP SUNDAYS HIGHS A LITTLE
COLDER THAN NORMAL. FEB 14 WAS THE LAST DAY WE HAD HIGH TEMPS AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A HIGH
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCES
LOOK TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...BUT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL LINGER...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. THE PATTERN
WILL BE QUICKLY CHANGING...AND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

13

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS IT
HAS OVER RECENT MODEL RUNS. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE
SLOWER ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SLOGGING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT, AND CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF TIME SINCE WE LAST
HEARD THUNDER SOME MIGHT WONDER WHAT THOSE RUMBLES ARE ALL ABOUT--
NOT TO MENTION THE FLASHES OF LIGHT THAT PRECEDE THEM.

IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY OVER ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, AS A COLD
AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY IN. EXPECT SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS TRANSITION WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW AND SLEET BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD THURSDAY MORNING AND A FAR CRY
FROM THE HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS EARLIER. WITH A
COLD NORTH WIND AND SNOW FLYING, THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 20S EXTREME SOUTH.

CHILLY DRY WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE LAST PART OF NEXT WEEK, AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  36  49  36 /  05  20  30  70
CLARKSVILLE    41  33  45  32 /  05  20  60  70
CROSSVILLE     42  33  48  36 /   0  20  40  70
COLUMBIA       47  36  50  38 /   0  20  40  70
LAWRENCEBURG   47  36  52  39 /   0  20  40  70
WAVERLY        43  36  48  34 /  05  20  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280911
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
311 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE COMING WEEK WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE...WITH 50 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS...POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MAYBE SOME WINTRY WX. HERE WE GO...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH EXTENDED DOWN INTO MID TN WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WINDS WERE
BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY.
WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 9-10 KFT WERE OBSERVED. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS FROM THESE CLOUDS WERE NOT PRODUCING SURFACE PRECIPITATION
THANKS TO VERY DRY AIR THE LOW LEVELS...INDICATED BY DEW POINTS
AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING THE CHILLY TEMPS STEADY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

FOR TODAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE,,,WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRAW SOME
WARMER AIR INTO MID TN FROM THE SOUTH. IN SPITE OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOUT 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.
WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME RADAR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WE DO NOT THINK MUCH IF ANY WILL REACH THE GROUND.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. A CONTINUING SOUTH WIND AT LOW LEVELS WILL
BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP SUNDAYS HIGHS A LITTLE
COLDER THAN NORMAL. FEB 14 WAS THE LAST DAY WE HAD HIGH TEMPS AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A HIGH
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCES
LOOK TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...BUT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL LINGER...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. THE PATTERN
WILL BE QUICKLY CHANGING...AND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

13

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS IT
HAS OVER RECENT MODEL RUNS. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE
SLOWER ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SLOGGING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT, AND CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF TIME SINCE WE LAST
HEARD THUNDER SOME MIGHT WONDER WHAT THOSE RUMBLES ARE ALL ABOUT--
NOT TO MENTION THE FLASHES OF LIGHT THAT PRECEDE THEM.

IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY OVER ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, AS A COLD
AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY IN. EXPECT SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS TRANSITION WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW AND SLEET BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD THURSDAY MORNING AND A FAR CRY
FROM THE HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS EARLIER. WITH A
COLD NORTH WIND AND SNOW FLYING, THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 20S EXTREME SOUTH.

CHILLY DRY WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE LAST PART OF NEXT WEEK, AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  36  49  36 /  05  20  30  70
CLARKSVILLE    41  33  45  32 /  05  20  60  70
CROSSVILLE     42  33  48  36 /   0  20  40  70
COLUMBIA       47  36  50  38 /   0  20  40  70
LAWRENCEBURG   47  36  52  39 /   0  20  40  70
WAVERLY        43  36  48  34 /  05  20  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280517
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1117 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD PRETTY MUCH ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
NORTH HALF OF MID STATE AS WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OFF TO NORTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280517
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1117 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD PRETTY MUCH ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
NORTH HALF OF MID STATE AS WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OFF TO NORTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280250
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
850 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
1041 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH
RIDGING DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL HALT THE SLIDE IN SPITE OF DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. MAY
HAVE TO MAKE A FEW TWEAKS DOWNWARD IN TEMPS EASTERN AREAS AND
PLATEAU BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DAYSHIFT INCLUDED FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE IN AS THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW NORTH HALF
AS WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280250
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
850 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
1041 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH
RIDGING DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL HALT THE SLIDE IN SPITE OF DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. MAY
HAVE TO MAKE A FEW TWEAKS DOWNWARD IN TEMPS EASTERN AREAS AND
PLATEAU BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DAYSHIFT INCLUDED FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE IN AS THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW NORTH HALF
AS WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280250
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
850 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
1041 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH
RIDGING DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL HALT THE SLIDE IN SPITE OF DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. MAY
HAVE TO MAKE A FEW TWEAKS DOWNWARD IN TEMPS EASTERN AREAS AND
PLATEAU BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DAYSHIFT INCLUDED FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE IN AS THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW NORTH HALF
AS WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280250
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
850 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
1041 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH
RIDGING DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL HALT THE SLIDE IN SPITE OF DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. MAY
HAVE TO MAKE A FEW TWEAKS DOWNWARD IN TEMPS EASTERN AREAS AND
PLATEAU BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DAYSHIFT INCLUDED FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE IN AS THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW NORTH HALF
AS WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 272357
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE SOUTH END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
MUCH DRIER AIR AND BECOME MOISTURE STARVED TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
WHILE KANSAS PART OF THIS SYSTEM HEADS ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING RAIN.

HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY THAT RIPPLES OUT ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP INTO KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT HERE IN THE MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WITH FLURRIES ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS ENERGY SCOOTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 272357
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE SOUTH END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
MUCH DRIER AIR AND BECOME MOISTURE STARVED TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
WHILE KANSAS PART OF THIS SYSTEM HEADS ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING RAIN.

HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY THAT RIPPLES OUT ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP INTO KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT HERE IN THE MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WITH FLURRIES ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS ENERGY SCOOTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 272357
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE SOUTH END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
MUCH DRIER AIR AND BECOME MOISTURE STARVED TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
WHILE KANSAS PART OF THIS SYSTEM HEADS ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING RAIN.

HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY THAT RIPPLES OUT ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP INTO KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT HERE IN THE MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WITH FLURRIES ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS ENERGY SCOOTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 272131
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
331 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD DOME OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT ARE MOSTLY
STILL BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND A SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
WILL RETURN. MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT
IT WILL AGAIN BE RATHER COLD WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

WEAK SFC TROUGHING TO DEVELOP TO OUR NW ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND THICKEN A BIT BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THE GOOD
NEWS...MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
40S. THAT`S STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT IT IS CERTAINLY WELCOME
CONSIDERING THIS FEBRUARY IS LIKELY TO END UP BEING ONE OF THE TOP
10 COLDEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD FOR NASHVILLE.

MOVING FORWARD...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SO...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE PRECIP WILL BE RAINFALL AS
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

A LOT OF FOLKS ARE WORRIED ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOODING BUT THIS WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...A MUCH MORE POTENT COLD FROM WILL APPROACH
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES NT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT UPWARD
TREND IN REGARD TO INSTABILITY LEVELS BUT WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR
SVR POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE TUES THROUGH WED TIME-FRAME. THIS
COULD INTERACT WITH SOME SNOWMELT AND PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.

OTW...QUITE THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE FOR THIS NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY
COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO GO ALONG WITH THE SHOWER AND
TSTM POTENTIAL. THEN...OLD MAN WINTER MIGHT BE BACK. EXAMINATION OF
THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STRUCTURE INDICATES THAT THE 2
FEATURES MAY PHASE SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID OR DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WE COULD VERY WELL GO FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TUESDAY...TO A LOW IN THE TEENS WITH WINTRY PRECIP BY THURSDAY
MORNING. EURO AND MEX NUMERICAL DATA BOTH HINTING AT A POTENTIALLY
INTERESTING WEATHER SITUATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID OR DEEP SOUTH.
WE SHALL SEE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      22  44  36  53 /   0  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    17  41  34  52 /   0  10  20  50
CROSSVILLE     20  39  34  46 /   0  05  20  40
COLUMBIA       24  46  37  55 /   0  05  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   25  46  38  56 /   0  05  20  40
WAVERLY        19  43  36  52 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 272131
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
331 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD DOME OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT ARE MOSTLY
STILL BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND A SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
WILL RETURN. MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT
IT WILL AGAIN BE RATHER COLD WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

WEAK SFC TROUGHING TO DEVELOP TO OUR NW ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND THICKEN A BIT BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THE GOOD
NEWS...MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
40S. THAT`S STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT IT IS CERTAINLY WELCOME
CONSIDERING THIS FEBRUARY IS LIKELY TO END UP BEING ONE OF THE TOP
10 COLDEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD FOR NASHVILLE.

MOVING FORWARD...A SFC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SO...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE PRECIP WILL BE RAINFALL AS
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

A LOT OF FOLKS ARE WORRIED ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOODING BUT THIS WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...A MUCH MORE POTENT COLD FROM WILL APPROACH
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES NT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT UPWARD
TREND IN REGARD TO INSTABILITY LEVELS BUT WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR
SVR POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE TUES THROUGH WED TIME-FRAME. THIS
COULD INTERACT WITH SOME SNOWMELT AND PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.

OTW...QUITE THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE FOR THIS NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY
COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO GO ALONG WITH THE SHOWER AND
TSTM POTENTIAL. THEN...OLD MAN WINTER MIGHT BE BACK. EXAMINATION OF
THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STRUCTURE INDICATES THAT THE 2
FEATURES MAY PHASE SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID OR DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WE COULD VERY WELL GO FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TUESDAY...TO A LOW IN THE TEENS WITH WINTRY PRECIP BY THURSDAY
MORNING. EURO AND MEX NUMERICAL DATA BOTH HINTING AT A POTENTIALLY
INTERESTING WEATHER SITUATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID OR DEEP SOUTH.
WE SHALL SEE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      22  44  36  53 /   0  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    17  41  34  52 /   0  10  20  50
CROSSVILLE     20  39  34  46 /   0  05  20  40
COLUMBIA       24  46  37  55 /   0  05  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   25  46  38  56 /   0  05  20  40
WAVERLY        19  43  36  52 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A PATCH OF CLOUDS IS DELIVERING MVFR CIGS TO KCKV AT ISSUANCE. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHOWING VFR.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COUPLE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS. KCSV COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

NORTHERLY TO NELY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN RELAX AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLIER ACROSS NC MIDDLE TN ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 18 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THE DEEP
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ADDED SUN THAT IS NOW EXPECTED...WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A PATCH OF CLOUDS IS DELIVERING MVFR CIGS TO KCKV AT ISSUANCE. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHOWING VFR.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COUPLE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS. KCSV COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

NORTHERLY TO NELY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN RELAX AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLIER ACROSS NC MIDDLE TN ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 18 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THE DEEP
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ADDED SUN THAT IS NOW EXPECTED...WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A PATCH OF CLOUDS IS DELIVERING MVFR CIGS TO KCKV AT ISSUANCE. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHOWING VFR.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COUPLE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS. KCSV COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

NORTHERLY TO NELY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN RELAX AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLIER ACROSS NC MIDDLE TN ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 18 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THE DEEP
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ADDED SUN THAT IS NOW EXPECTED...WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A PATCH OF CLOUDS IS DELIVERING MVFR CIGS TO KCKV AT ISSUANCE. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHOWING VFR.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COUPLE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS. KCSV COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

NORTHERLY TO NELY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN RELAX AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLIER ACROSS NC MIDDLE TN ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 18 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THE DEEP
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ADDED SUN THAT IS NOW EXPECTED...WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271520
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLIER ACROSS NC MIDDLE TN ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 18 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THE DEEP
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ADDED SUN THAT IS NOW EXPECTED...WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TERMINAL FORECASTS.

AVIATION...VARIABLE MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DIRTY LOW NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCT TO BKN CLOUDS BTWN 2K AND 4K FT THROUGH 00Z. CIGS WILL
TREND TO NR 10K FT MOST AREAS TONIGHT, AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY
DISSIPATES A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      31  21  42  35 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    27  18  39  34 /   0   0  10  20
CROSSVILLE     28  17  41  34 /  05   0  05  20
COLUMBIA       32  22  44  36 /   0   0  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   33  23  44  35 /   0   0  05  20
WAVERLY        30  20  41  35 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271520
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLIER ACROSS NC MIDDLE TN ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 18 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THE DEEP
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ADDED SUN THAT IS NOW EXPECTED...WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TERMINAL FORECASTS.

AVIATION...VARIABLE MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DIRTY LOW NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCT TO BKN CLOUDS BTWN 2K AND 4K FT THROUGH 00Z. CIGS WILL
TREND TO NR 10K FT MOST AREAS TONIGHT, AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY
DISSIPATES A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      31  21  42  35 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    27  18  39  34 /   0   0  10  20
CROSSVILLE     28  17  41  34 /  05   0  05  20
COLUMBIA       32  22  44  36 /   0   0  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   33  23  44  35 /   0   0  05  20
WAVERLY        30  20  41  35 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271520
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLIER ACROSS NC MIDDLE TN ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 18 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THE DEEP
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ADDED SUN THAT IS NOW EXPECTED...WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TERMINAL FORECASTS.

AVIATION...VARIABLE MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DIRTY LOW NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCT TO BKN CLOUDS BTWN 2K AND 4K FT THROUGH 00Z. CIGS WILL
TREND TO NR 10K FT MOST AREAS TONIGHT, AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY
DISSIPATES A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      31  21  42  35 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    27  18  39  34 /   0   0  10  20
CROSSVILLE     28  17  41  34 /  05   0  05  20
COLUMBIA       32  22  44  36 /   0   0  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   33  23  44  35 /   0   0  05  20
WAVERLY        30  20  41  35 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271520
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLIER ACROSS NC MIDDLE TN ARE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 18 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THE DEEP
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A WARMUP TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ADDED SUN THAT IS NOW EXPECTED...WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TERMINAL FORECASTS.

AVIATION...VARIABLE MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DIRTY LOW NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCT TO BKN CLOUDS BTWN 2K AND 4K FT THROUGH 00Z. CIGS WILL
TREND TO NR 10K FT MOST AREAS TONIGHT, AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY
DISSIPATES A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      31  21  42  35 /   0   0  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    27  18  39  34 /   0   0  10  20
CROSSVILLE     28  17  41  34 /  05   0  05  20
COLUMBIA       32  22  44  36 /   0   0  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   33  23  44  35 /   0   0  05  20
WAVERLY        30  20  41  35 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






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