000
FXUS64 KOHX 250027
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
727 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND VFR WX
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
000
FXUS64 KOHX 241955
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CONTINUED TO CLEAR WITH JUST ISOL TO SCT CU CLOUDS
REMAINING. THE DRIER AIR AND STRONG THERMAL TROUGHING WILL EQUATE TO
DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COOLEST
TEMPS WILL OCCUR SAT MORNING WHEN THE SFC HIGH IS AT ITS CLOSEST
PROXIMITY. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
AND HEIGHT RISES OCCUR. TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.
IN THE EXT FCST...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED TO OUR
WEST...THIS WILL ENABLE A NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BECOME APPARENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF MIDDLE TN BUT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...THERE IS A RISK OF CONVECTION
RETURNING TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE 20-30 PERCENT POPS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND OVER MIDDLE TN BY MID WEEK.
FURTHERMORE...THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY BRINGING WARMER BUT DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA. SO...OTHER THAN SUN NT AND MONDAY...THE EXTENDED IS
LOOKING DRY.
VERSUS THE EXT GUIDANCE...WILL SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT TEMPS IN THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED. IN AGREEMENT WITH NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS BY
LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 48 78 52 82 / 0 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 46 78 50 83 / 0 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 42 71 45 77 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 48 79 51 84 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 48 80 50 84 / 0 0 10 10
WAVERLY 47 78 51 84 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KOHX 241736 AAB
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVAITION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DIURNAL SCT CU FIELDS WITH WINDS 5-10KT EXPECTED THRU 25/01Z.
OTHERWISE...SKC/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 25/18Z PER BUILDING
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WITH WINDS 5KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 941 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
UPDATE...
THERMAL TROUGHING PATTERN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN OVERALL TREND
TOWARD DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS. CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE
ON PACE WITH REACHING THE UPPER 60S WEST OF PLATEAU AROUND
18Z...AND THEN NEAR 70 FOR THE AFT HIGH.
CURRENT GRIDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL GO AHEAD AND RERUN
THE ZONES IN AN HOUR OR TWO SO AS TO REMOVE SOME OF THE MORNING
WORDING.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS...
AVIATION...
BEGINNING TO SEE CIGS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN AFTER CLOUD DECK ERODES BY MID
MORNING. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN SINCE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AT BNA AND CSV WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS. DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CKV
WHICH COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
I FAILED TO ADDRESS EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MY INITIAL AFD SO
HERE IS AN UPDATE. 850 TROUGH AXIS WEST TO EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE
WITH LOW DECK DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MID STATE AT 10Z. GOOD
NORTHERLY FEED INTO THE MID STATE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. BACK EDGE
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST ABOUT ON CLARKSVILLE AT 10Z. BACK EDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD AND FARTHER DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING IN BEHIND CLOUDS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
AT CLARKSVILLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z WITH CLEARING AT NASHVILLE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AND CLEARING AT CROSSVILLE BY 15Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE US WILL KEEP MID STATE BASICALLY DRY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MID STATE THAT I
CAN FIND IS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IT IS A LOW POP. BY
MID WEEK STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH 1025 MBAR RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN US AND
STRONG UPPER HIGH (590 DECAMETERS) OVER SOUTHEASTERN US.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
000
FXUS64 KOHX 241441
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
941 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
THERMAL TROUGHING PATTERN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN OVERALL TREND
TOWARD DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS. CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE
ON PACE WITH REACHING THE UPPER 60S WEST OF PLATEAU AROUND
18Z...AND THEN NEAR 70 FOR THE AFT HIGH.
CURRENT GRIDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL GO AHEAD AND RERUN
THE ZONES IN AN HOUR OR TWO SO AS TO REMOVE SOME OF THE MORNING
WORDING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS...
AVIATION...
BEGINNING TO SEE CIGS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN AFTER CLOUD DECK ERODES BY MID
MORNING. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN SINCE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AT BNA AND CSV WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS. DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CKV
WHICH COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
I FAILED TO ADDRESS EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MY INITIAL AFD SO
HERE IS AN UPDATE. 850 TROUGH AXIS WEST TO EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE
WITH LOW DECK DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MID STATE AT 10Z. GOOD
NORTHERLY FEED INTO THE MID STATE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. BACK EDGE
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST ABOUT ON CLARKSVILLE AT 10Z. BACK EDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD AND FARTHER DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING IN BEHIND CLOUDS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
AT CLARKSVILLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z WITH CLEARING AT NASHVILLE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AND CLEARING AT CROSSVILLE BY 15Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE US WILL KEEP MID STATE BASICALLY DRY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MID STATE THAT I
CAN FIND IS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IT IS A LOW POP. BY
MID WEEK STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH 1025 MBAR RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN US AND
STRONG UPPER HIGH (590 DECAMETERS) OVER SOUTHEASTERN US.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KOHX 241144
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS...
&&
.AVIATION...
BEGINNING TO SEE CIGS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN AFTER CLOUD DECK ERODES BY MID
MORNING. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN SINCE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AT BNA AND CSV WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS. DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CKV
WHICH COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
I FAILED TO ADDRESS EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MY INITIAL AFD SO
HERE IS AN UPDATE. 850 TROUGH AXIS WEST TO EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE
WITH LOW DECK DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MID STATE AT 10Z. GOOD
NORTHERLY FEED INTO THE MID STATE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. BACK EDGE
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST ABOUT ON CLARKSVILLE AT 10Z. BACK EDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD AND FARTHER DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING IN BEHIND CLOUDS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
AT CLARKSVILLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z WITH CLEARING AT NASHVILLE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AND CLEARING AT CROSSVILLE BY 15Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE US WILL KEEP MID STATE BASICALLY DRY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MID STATE THAT I
CAN FIND IS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IT IS A LOW POP. BY
MID WEEK STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH 1025 MBAR RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN US AND
STRONG UPPER HIGH (590 DECAMETERS) OVER SOUTHEASTERN US.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
000
FXUS64 KOHX 241031
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
531 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
I FAILED TO ADDRESS EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MY INITIAL AFD SO
HERE IS AN UPDATE. 850 TROUGH AXIS WEST TO EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE
WITH LOW DECK DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MID STATE AT 10Z. GOOD
NORTHERLY FEED INTO THE MID STATE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. BACK EDGE
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST ABOUT ON CLARKSVILLE AT 10Z. BACK EDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD AND FARTHER DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING IN BEHIND CLOUDS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
AT CLARKSVILLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z WITH CLEARING AT NASHVILLE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AND CLEARING AT CROSSVILLE BY 15Z.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE US WILL KEEP MID STATE BASICALLY DRY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MID STATE THAT I
CAN FIND IS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IT IS A LOW POP. BY
MID WEEK STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH 1025 MBAR RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN US AND
STRONG UPPER HIGH (590 DECAMETERS) OVER SOUTHEASTERN US.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 240735
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
235 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE US WILL KEEP MID STATE BASICALLY DRY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MID STATE THAT I
CAN FIND IS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IT IS A LOW POP. BY
MID WEEK STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE A
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH 1025 MBAR RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN US AND
STRONG UPPER HIGH (590 DECAMETERS) OVER SOUTHEASTERN US.
BOYD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 70 47 76 54 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 68 45 76 52 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 64 41 70 48 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 72 47 77 53 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 46 77 51 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 70 45 77 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 240453
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...STRATOCU CIGS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED
AND WILL THEREFORE GO WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z OR 13Z.
GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF SOME DURING THE
REST OF THE NIGHT, BUT BECOME A BIT GUSTY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS64 KOHX 232332
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...BKN STRATOCU CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT CSV
AND DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 04Z. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT SCTD STRATOCU
DURING THE EVENING AT BNA AND CKV TO GIVE WAY TO SKC BY 04Z.
GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF DURING THE NIGHT,
BUT BECOME A TAD GUSTY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS64 KOHX 232026
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP AT MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AS H5 TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.
THESE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
END THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE TROF
MOVES TO OUR EAST. WEST AND NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM
DEVELOPING FRI MORNING.
FAIR BUT COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FRIDAY AS TROF MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE EAST COAST...LEAVING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION.
IT WILL BE SURPRISINGLY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE AREA AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. IN FACT...LOW TO MID 40S
WILL BE COMMON FOR SATURDAY MORNING/S MIN TEMPS BUT A FEW AREAS
MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS TIME
OF YEAR SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
IT WILL BE DRY SATURDAY AND DAYTIME TEMPS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE
BIT...BUT A BETTER WARMUP WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS THE H5 LOW
MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO INSERT 20 TO 30 POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE DAYS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S TUE/WED/THUR AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND H5 RIDGING
INTENSIFIES. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DURING MID WEEK BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 52 70 47 76 / 10 0 0 05
CLARKSVILLE 47 68 44 77 / 10 05 0 05
CROSSVILLE 50 65 40 72 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 53 71 47 77 / 10 0 0 05
LAWRENCEBURG 53 72 47 78 / 10 05 0 05
WAVERLY 49 70 45 77 / 10 05 0 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
49
000
FXUS64 KOHX 231732
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK MOVING IN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE
OBS INDICATING CIGS AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CALMING AND CLEARING CONDITIONS AT CKV AND BNA
OVERNIGHT. FOR CSV...CLOUD COVER SHOULD STICK AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER...WITH SOME REDUCED VIS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. AFTER 12Z TOMORROW...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05
000
FXUS64 KOHX 231127 AAA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...ACTUAL SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THRU 24/12Z AND IMPACTS
OF ISO/SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AT TAF SITES. MAIN SWATH OF VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED
W TO E 23/16Z-24/06Z PER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLATEAU COULD PERSIST THRU 24/12Z ALONG WITH MVFR FOG...
LIKE MVFR FOG IS PERSISTING AS 23/12Z APPROACHES. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ISO IN NATURE AND THUS HARD TO PINPOINT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT
AND IMPACTS ON PARTICULAR TAF SITES...BUT BEST POSSIBILITY LOOKS TO BE CSV PER
ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES...AND THUS MENTION VCTS CSV 23/17Z-24/00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 229 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A SMALL POP GOING FOR
THE MID STATE TODAY DUE TO FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH BEST CHANCE OVER
NORTHEAST HALF. FRONT GETS SOUTH OF MY CWA TONIGHT WITH A MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SINKING DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE THE COOLEST SINCE
MAY 14TH WHEN WE HAD 47 AT NASHVILLE...39 AT CROSSVILLE AND 49 AT
CLARKSVILLE. LOWS THIS PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 60S AT
MANY LOCATIONS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ON FRIDAY LOOK FOR PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG UPPER CUMBERLAND AND SOME EASTERN AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AT ALL LOCATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH UPPER
RIDGE RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL US AS WE GO THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM UP EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN US AT THE SURFACE. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MEMORIAL DAY I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CERTAINLY CANT RULE AIR MASS TYPE STUFF DEVELOPING MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT NO TRIGGER OTHER THAN HEATING CAN BE FOUND.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
000
FXUS64 KOHX 230729
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
229 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A SMALL POP GOING FOR
THE MID STATE TODAY DUE TO FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH BEST CHANCE OVER
NORTHEAST HALF. FRONT GETS SOUTH OF MY CWA TONIGHT WITH A MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SINKING DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE THE COOLEST SINCE
MAY 14TH WHEN WE HAD 47 AT NASHVILLE...39 AT CROSSVILLE AND 49 AT
CLARKSVILLE. LOWS THIS PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 60S AT
MANY LOCATIONS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ON FRIDAY LOOK FOR PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG UPPER CUMBERLAND AND SOME EASTERN AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AT ALL LOCATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH UPPER
RIDGE RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL US AS WE GO THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM UP EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN US AT THE SURFACE. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MEMORIAL DAY I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CERTAINLY CANT RULE AIR MASS TYPE STUFF DEVELOPING MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT NO TRIGGER OTHER THAN HEATING CAN BE FOUND.
BOYD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 78 52 70 45 / 20 10 05 0
CLARKSVILLE 76 48 68 43 / 20 10 05 0
CROSSVILLE 73 50 64 41 / 30 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 81 54 72 46 / 20 10 05 0
LAWRENCEBURG 82 55 73 45 / 20 10 05 0
WAVERLY 78 50 70 44 / 20 10 05 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 230452
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT, DUE TO BR, AT
CSV, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH BNA AND CKV.
BTWN 13Z AND 23Z LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS, BUT A RETURN TO MVFR (DUE
TO CIGS) AFTER 23Z.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, DUE TO LOW POINT-SPECIFIC PROBABILITY,
HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION OF IT AT MID STATE TERMINALS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS64 KOHX 222010
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE REFERENCE OUR MESOSCALE AFD ISSUED AT 205 PM FOR THE LATEST
THOUGHTS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT PRECIP CVRG TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING..WITH
MOST SHOWERS ENDING ON THE PLATEAU BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL CLIP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY HELP DRIVE
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHC NE SXNS. MAV TEMPS LOOK
GOOD THRU THE PERIOD.
COOL HIPRES THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AS AN OVERALL
DEEP RIDGING IN THE ATMOS BEGINS. MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70 WITH A FRESH NNE BREEZE. VERY COOL READINGS AS WINDS GO
CALM FRI NGT. A FEW NORMALLY COOL SPOTS WILL REACH THE U30S WITH
MOST OF MIDDLE TN BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LVL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE EURO WHICH HAS
ADVERTISED NW FLOW CONVECTION IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE
WEEKEND. TO MAINTAIN FCST CONTINUITY AND COORDINATION WE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. NEW GUIDANCE
TEMPS IN LINE WITH PREV FCST RIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND AND LITTLE CHG
WAS MADE.
RIDGING CONTINUES/STRENGTHENS NEXT WEEK WITH A STEADY WARMUP
SLATED FOR OUR APPROACH TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 61 79 52 71 / 30 20 10 05
CLARKSVILLE 58 77 49 70 / 20 20 10 05
CROSSVILLE 59 74 51 66 / 60 30 20 0
COLUMBIA 61 81 54 72 / 20 20 10 05
LAWRENCEBURG 60 81 55 73 / 20 20 10 05
WAVERLY 59 78 50 71 / 20 20 10 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JOHNSTONE
000
FXUS64 KOHX 221905
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
205 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROKEN CLOUD DECK OVER
MIDDLE TN THAT HAS BEEN LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING UNTIL THE LAST
HOUR OR SO. WITH THE CLOUD DECK DETERIORATING ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SUNLIGHT TO POKE THROUGH...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS ARE INCREASING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 3 HOUR
CAPE CHANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE OF ABOUT 400-600 J/KG
WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. FORECAST
CAPE VALUES APPEAR TO BE BEST OUT EAST ON THE CUMBERLAND BUT
GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE MID STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
UNCAPPED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED BETWEEN NOW
AND THE NEXT HOUR SO EXPECT INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO BEGIN VERY
SOON.
DYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS INCREASING
ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS COINCIDENT WITH THE RRQ OF THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED 300 MB LOW. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SWING AROUND
AND AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW...THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
BEGIN OUT EAST WHERE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS BEST. IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOCATIONS OUT WEST CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE...THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL TRANSITION TO
THE FRONT WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHEAR IS BEST. BELIEVE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
WELL STACKED TROUGH TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE TODAY.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN MIDDLE TN. A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG TO SEVERE
LIMITS. AFT 00Z...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BUT CLOUDINESS AND SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG WILL PERSIST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS AOB 1KFT WILL
OCCUR AT CSV AFT 06Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AFT 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTN. REST OF THE FCST APPEARS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
MORNING UA ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SEASONALLY STRONG SOMEWHAT
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LVL SHORT WAVE ACRS ARKANSAS APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE REGION IS ALSO ENTERING THE RR QUAD OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG UPPER LVL JET STREAK WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMICS DON`T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW
AS THE ATMOS IS PRETTY WORKED OVER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS
CLOUD HAS HUNG ARND. MORNING SOUNDING DEPICTS A DEEP DRY/CAPPED
LOWER ATMOSPHERE THAT IS INHIBITING ANY DEVELOPMENT. DO EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE SUN TO DEVELOP...AND A SLOW INCRS IN LLVL MSTR IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE COMBINATION OF COOLING MID LVL TEMPS AND A
WARMING/MOISTENING LOWER ATMOS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE
MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA IN
THE MID/LATE AFTN. DECENT SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE SO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO ORIENT IN A LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC CONTINUES A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO AS WELL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS64 KOHX 221637
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1137 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
WELL STACKED TROUGH TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE TODAY.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN MIDDLE TN. A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG TO SEVERE
LIMITS. AFT 00Z...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BUT CLOUDINESS AND SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG WILL PERSIST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS AOB 1KFT WILL
OCCUR AT CSV AFT 06Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AFT 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTN. REST OF THE FCST APPEARS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
MORNING UA ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SEASONALLY STRONG SOMEWHAT
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LVL SHORT WAVE ACRS ARKANSAS APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE REGION IS ALSO ENTERING THE RR QUAD OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG UPPER LVL JET STREAK WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMICS DON`T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW
AS THE ATMOS IS PRETTY WORKED OVER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS
CLOUD HAS HUNG ARND. MORNING SOUNDING DEPICTS A DEEP DRY/CAPPED
LOWER ATMOSPHERE THAT IS INHIBITING ANY DEVELOPMENT. DO EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE SUN TO DEVELOP...AND A SLOW INCRS IN LLVL MSTR IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE COMBINATION OF COOLING MID LVL TEMPS AND A
WARMING/MOISTENING LOWER ATMOS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE
MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA IN
THE MID/LATE AFTN. DECENT SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE SO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO ORIENT IN A LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC CONTINUES A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO AS WELL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KOHX 221537
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1037 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTN. REST OF THE FCST APPEARS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
MORNING UA ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SEASONALLY STRONG SOMEWHAT
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LVL SHORT WAVE ACRS ARKANSAS APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE REGION IS ALSO ENTERING THE RR QUAD OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG UPPER LVL JET STREAK WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMICS DON`T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW
AS THE ATMOS IS PRETTY WORKED OVER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS
CLOUD HAS HUNG ARND. MORNING SOUNDING DEPICTS A DEEP DRY/CAPPED
LOWER ATMOSPHERE THAT IS INHIBITING ANY DEVELOPMENT. DO EXPECT A
LITTLE MORE SUN TO DEVELOP...AND A SLOW INCRS IN LLVL MSTR IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE COMBINATION OF COOLING MID LVL TEMPS AND A
WARMING/MOISTENING LOWER ATMOS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE
MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA IN
THE MID/LATE AFTN. DECENT SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE SO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO ORIENT IN A LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC CONTINUES A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO AS WELL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JOHNSTONE
000
FXUS64 KOHX 221040
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
540 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST RECENT MCS HAS COLLAPSED WITH JUST A FEW
REMAINING -TSRA APPROACHING CSV. BY 12Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF AIRPORTS WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH SPEEDS 5-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 15-25
KTS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS AT CKV/BNA BUT TEMPO -TSRA AT
CSV. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER IN BY 23/00Z WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN TAF PERIOD.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SETUP...UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE MID-
LEVELS BASED ON LATEST RUC WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING
BACK OVER CENTRAL PLAINS NOSING DOWN INTO ARKANSAS. A 35 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS CONTINUING TO FEED MOIST PLUME INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. WIND FIELD LOOKS TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SPEED SHEAR IN
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. UPPER LEVEL JET JUST RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH
FROM ABOUT TEXARKANA NORTHWARD INTO IOWA WITH A 65 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ON-GOING CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DOWN THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI...BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
WITH THE CURRENT SETUP LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH
THE WIND FIELDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL THE SWEAT INDEX CLIMBS TO 362
AT 18Z AND 413 BY 00Z WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE DURING THE
MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ON THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING ALONG THE PLATEAU
THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING. GFS HAS WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP MID STATE
BASICALLY WARM AND DRY. THE EURO HAS WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND KEEPS SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE MID STATE JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HAVE BACKED OFF A TAD FROM MAV MOS ON HIGHS TODAY AND WENT CLOSER
TO THE MET DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. STAYED
CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 220746
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
246 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SETUP...UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE MID-
LEVELS BASED ON LATEST RUC WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING
BACK OVER CENTRAL PLAINS NOSING DOWN INTO ARKANSAS. A 35 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS CONTINUING TO FEED MOIST PLUME INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. WIND FIELD LOOKS TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SPEED SHEAR IN
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. UPPER LEVEL JET JUST RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH
FROM ABOUT TEXARKANA NORTHWARD INTO IOWA WITH A 65 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ON-GOING CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DOWN THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI...BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
WITH THE CURRENT SETUP LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH
THE WIND FIELDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL THE SWEAT INDEX CLIMBS TO 362
AT 18Z AND 413 BY 00Z WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE DURING THE
MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ON THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING ALONG THE PLATEAU
THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING. GFS HAS WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP MID STATE
BASICALLY WARM AND DRY. THE EURO HAS WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND KEEPS SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE MID STATE JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HAVE BACKED OFF A TAD FROM MAV MOS ON HIGHS TODAY AND WENT CLOSER
TO THE MET DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. STAYED
CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST.
BOYD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 79 61 78 52 / 60 30 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 76 58 76 49 / 60 20 20 10
CROSSVILLE 76 59 73 51 / 70 50 30 20
COLUMBIA 79 61 80 54 / 60 30 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 78 60 80 55 / 60 30 20 10
WAVERLY 77 59 77 50 / 60 20 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 220426
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...BKN LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ONGOING BETWEEN BNA AND
CSV, WITH A GUST FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE AT CSV AROUND 06Z, ALONG WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH SFC WINDS TO NR 15KTS. EXPECT VCTS TO
EXIST IN CSV AREA UNTIL 07Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL, DUE TO BR, AT ALL MID STATE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO
TUESDAY), WITH ANOTHER RECURRENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS, DUE TO BR,
AFTER 03Z/23.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
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