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000
FXUS64 KOHX 222349 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222349 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222218 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222218 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221858
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    39  64  43  69 /   0   0   0  10
CROSSVILLE     37  62  41  65 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       38  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   39  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        38  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
BOYD
01








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221805
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
105 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CATEGORIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN...WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KCKV AND KCSV EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. KEPT BOTH
KCKV AND KCSV AT MVFR FOG FOR NOW.

BARNWELL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221448
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
948 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
STILL HAVE BROKEN LOW DECK ALONG UPPER CUMBERLAND THAT IS TRYING TO
SCATTER OUT BUT TAKING ITS TIME. THIS DECK ON BACK SIDE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE BEING A COOL FETCH FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TODAY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. AM CONSIDERING A FROST ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT WANT TO GET A LOOK AT SOME NEW
MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION. LOOKS LIKE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. WILL
TRY AND DECIDE BEFORE NOON TODAY AND GET PRODUCT OUT BY THEN OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221140
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
640 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FEW MVFR CLOUD HAVE ADVECTED ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS
MORNING WHICH IS GIVING KCSV SOME MVFR CIGS. THESE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE. QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FROST. THIS MIGHT NEGATE THE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY SOME IFR FOG FOR NOW AT KCKV AS
TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR FOG INSTEAD OF FROST.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL EXIT THE CONUS TODAY ALLOWING FOR SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LOW TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS SOME MID 30 TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS EAST OF I-65 AND ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS NEAREST
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER DRY UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA THEN. THEREAFTER UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR HIGHS SAT AND SUN...AND
EVEN NEARING 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY. COULD BE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY ALSO...AS BOTH DAYS SHOW AN INCREASED SWRLY FLOW. AT THE
VERY LEAST MON-TUE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH GUSTY SW WINDS
AND WITH THAT GREAT OF WARM AIR-ADVECTION...WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE MEXMOS SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE WARMUP.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW TROUGHING
OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PUSH EAST AND BREAK DOWN OUR HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. BUT WITH THE
SFC LOW PUSHING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
SQUEAK OUT MUCH MOISTURE. LEFT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY THAT
FAR OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220801
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL EXIT THE CONUS TODAY ALLOWING FOR SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LOW TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS SOME MID 30 TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS EAST OF I-65 AND ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS NEAREST
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER DRY UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA THEN. THEREAFTER UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR HIGHS SAT AND SUN...AND
EVEN NEARING 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY. COULD BE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY ALSO...AS BOTH DAYS SHOW AN INCREASED SWRLY FLOW. AT THE
VERY LEAST MON-TUE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH GUSTY SW WINDS
AND WITH THAT GREAT OF WARM AIR-ADVECTION...WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE MEXMOS SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE WARMUP.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW TROUGHING
OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PUSH EAST AND BREAK DOWN OUR HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. BUT WITH THE
SFC LOW PUSHING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
SQUEAK OUT MUCH MOISTURE. LEFT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY THAT
FAR OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  40  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    63  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     59  35  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       65  36  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        65  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220430 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
23/06Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO NE WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME VFR CEILINGS FOR CSV
PER LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NE AND TEMPO LOW END MVFR
TO HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL
22/09Z-22/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID STATE. CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER DOES EXIST
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CLOUDS A
SMALL BIT ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOUTHWARD SFC RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER
OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220430 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
23/06Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO NE WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME VFR CEILINGS FOR CSV
PER LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NE AND TEMPO LOW END MVFR
TO HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL
22/09Z-22/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID STATE. CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER DOES EXIST
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CLOUDS A
SMALL BIT ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOUTHWARD SFC RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER
OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220246
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID STATE. CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER DOES EXIST
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CLOUDS A
SMALL BIT ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOUTHWARD SFC RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER
OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220246
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID STATE. CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER DOES EXIST
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CLOUDS A
SMALL BIT ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOUTHWARD SFC RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER
OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 212343 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211858
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      42  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    41  64  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     39  59  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       42  65  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   42  66  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        42  65  38  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
103 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
RATHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW DOWN INTO KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE KEEPING STRATOCU ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. SOME OF THIS GETTING A LITTLE
HELP DIURNALLY FROM SURFACE HEATING. LOOKING AT VFR NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND BUT COULD SEE MVFR LATE NIGHT AT CROSSVILLE DUE TO FOG.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01








000
FXUS64 KOHX 211504
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF PATCHY FOG STILL REMAINS
ON THE TN RIVER BUT OTHERWISE HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT SOME LOW CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF KY TOWARDS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S PLATEAU TO MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS COVERED AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GRIDS AND ZONES.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211504
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF PATCHY FOG STILL REMAINS
ON THE TN RIVER BUT OTHERWISE HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT SOME LOW CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF KY TOWARDS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S PLATEAU TO MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS COVERED AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GRIDS AND ZONES.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210829
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BY 12Z. THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS STILL INDICATING
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...
AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE
SOME LIGHT FOG LATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT TO PERHAPS BKN CLOUDINESS
DURING THAT PERIOD. CLDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  43  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    68  41  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  40  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       69  43  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   70  43  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        70  43  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210829
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BY 12Z. THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS STILL INDICATING
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...
AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE
SOME LIGHT FOG LATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT TO PERHAPS BKN CLOUDINESS
DURING THAT PERIOD. CLDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  43  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    68  41  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  40  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       69  43  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   70  43  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        70  43  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210452
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BY 12Z. THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS STILL INDICATING
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES ARE NEAR ZERO
BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV. THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT TO PERHAPS BKN
CLOUDINESS DURING THAT PERIOD. CLDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL KY AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES
REACH OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
PLATEAU ONLY. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES IN THE FCST BUT REMOVE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

OTW...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW BY 12Z. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST. MIN TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210452
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BY 12Z. THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS STILL INDICATING
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES ARE NEAR ZERO
BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV. THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT TO PERHAPS BKN
CLOUDINESS DURING THAT PERIOD. CLDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL KY AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES
REACH OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
PLATEAU ONLY. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES IN THE FCST BUT REMOVE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

OTW...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW BY 12Z. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST. MIN TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210452
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BY 12Z. THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS STILL INDICATING
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES ARE NEAR ZERO
BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV. THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT TO PERHAPS BKN
CLOUDINESS DURING THAT PERIOD. CLDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL KY AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES
REACH OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
PLATEAU ONLY. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES IN THE FCST BUT REMOVE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

OTW...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW BY 12Z. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST. MIN TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210452
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BY 12Z. THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS STILL INDICATING
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES ARE NEAR ZERO
BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV. THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT TO PERHAPS BKN
CLOUDINESS DURING THAT PERIOD. CLDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL KY AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES
REACH OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
PLATEAU ONLY. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES IN THE FCST BUT REMOVE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

OTW...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW BY 12Z. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST. MIN TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210223
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
923 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL KY AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES
REACH OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
PLATEAU ONLY. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES IN THE FCST BUT REMOVE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

OTW...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW BY 12Z. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST. MIN TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210223
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
923 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL KY AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES
REACH OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
PLATEAU ONLY. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES IN THE FCST BUT REMOVE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

OTW...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW BY 12Z. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST. MIN TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210223
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
923 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL KY AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES
REACH OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
PLATEAU ONLY. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES IN THE FCST BUT REMOVE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

OTW...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW BY 12Z. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST. MIN TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210223
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
923 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL KY AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES
REACH OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
PLATEAU ONLY. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES IN THE FCST BUT REMOVE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.

OTW...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW BY 12Z. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST. MIN TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 202321
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 202321
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATING LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES
ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE 12Z THROUGH 18Z
TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT-BKN NON IFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201920
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  67  43  64 /  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    47  66  41  63 /  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     46  62  40  58 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       48  68  43  64 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   49  69  43  64 /  10   0   0   0
WAVERLY        47  68  43  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201920
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ABOUT TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL MO/IL...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND WILL JUST MENTION SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...SO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR RIVERS/LAKES.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
SPECTACULAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING UPPER RIDGES/TROUGHS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY...BUT
DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY BRING OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  67  43  64 /  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    47  66  41  63 /  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     46  62  40  58 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       48  68  43  64 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   49  69  43  64 /  10   0   0   0
WAVERLY        47  68  43  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201828
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
CURRENTLY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY
EAST. COLD FRONT STILL A WAYS OFF AND AT 18Z STRETCHED FROM
NORTHERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THEN BACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOOKING AT BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24
HOURS ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST AT
CLARKSVILLE AT 23Z...NASHVILLE AT 00Z AND CROSSVILLE BY 01Z-02Z.
WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING. NO FOG AT
CLARKSVILLE OR NASHVILLE TONIGHT BUT CROSSVILLE COULD GO MVFR
2110Z-2112Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201828
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
CURRENTLY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY
EAST. COLD FRONT STILL A WAYS OFF AND AT 18Z STRETCHED FROM
NORTHERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THEN BACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOOKING AT BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24
HOURS ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST AT
CLARKSVILLE AT 23Z...NASHVILLE AT 00Z AND CROSSVILLE BY 01Z-02Z.
WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING. NO FOG AT
CLARKSVILLE OR NASHVILLE TONIGHT BUT CROSSVILLE COULD GO MVFR
2110Z-2112Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201518
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1018 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN A BIT MORE
PREVALENT THAN EARLIER THINKING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO COVER MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST NOT COVERED BY A 20 POP. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPS AND OTHER GRIDS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...THERE IS RADIATION FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING THAT WE`RE HAVING TO DEAL WITH. EXPECT VSBY TO GO
UNRESTRICTED BY 13Z AT THE LATEST. THEN LOOK FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAVE THE TAF`S VFR THRU THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT CKV.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  I
MEAN...NONE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WORKWEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY.

IF THERE IS ANYTHING WORTH A MENTION IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
PACKAGE IT`S THIS REALLY IMPOTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING SWWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...
BUT WE MAY ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ONLY CHANGE I`LL MAKE TO
THE WHOLE POP FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN A SMALL POP FOR
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME WET PAVEMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND
MIDDLE TN. AGAIN...NOT SIGNIFICANT...BUT WORTH A MENTION.

THIS SECONDARY TROUGH TONIGHT WILL DELIVER SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FROM CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE START TO SLOWLY
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REBOUND WILL BE DUE IN PART TO AN EXTENDED RANGE SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM AND WHILE NOT TOO POTENT...IT SHOULD HELP GET DEW POINTS
ELEVATED ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201518
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1018 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN A BIT MORE
PREVALENT THAN EARLIER THINKING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO COVER MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST NOT COVERED BY A 20 POP. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPS AND OTHER GRIDS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...THERE IS RADIATION FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING THAT WE`RE HAVING TO DEAL WITH. EXPECT VSBY TO GO
UNRESTRICTED BY 13Z AT THE LATEST. THEN LOOK FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAVE THE TAF`S VFR THRU THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT CKV.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  I
MEAN...NONE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WORKWEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY.

IF THERE IS ANYTHING WORTH A MENTION IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
PACKAGE IT`S THIS REALLY IMPOTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING SWWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...
BUT WE MAY ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ONLY CHANGE I`LL MAKE TO
THE WHOLE POP FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN A SMALL POP FOR
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME WET PAVEMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND
MIDDLE TN. AGAIN...NOT SIGNIFICANT...BUT WORTH A MENTION.

THIS SECONDARY TROUGH TONIGHT WILL DELIVER SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FROM CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE START TO SLOWLY
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REBOUND WILL BE DUE IN PART TO AN EXTENDED RANGE SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM AND WHILE NOT TOO POTENT...IT SHOULD HELP GET DEW POINTS
ELEVATED ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...THERE IS RADIATION FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING THAT WE`RE HAVING TO DEAL WITH. EXPECT VSBY TO GO
UNRESTRICTED BY 13Z AT THE LATEST. THEN LOOK FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAVE THE TAF`S VFR THRU THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT CKV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  I
MEAN...NONE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WORKWEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY.

IF THERE IS ANYTHING WORTH A MENTION IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
PACKAGE IT`S THIS REALLY IMPOTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING SWWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...
BUT WE MAY ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ONLY CHANGE I`LL MAKE TO
THE WHOLE POP FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN A SMALL POP FOR
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME WET PAVEMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND
MIDDLE TN. AGAIN...NOT SIGNIFICANT...BUT WORTH A MENTION.

THIS SECONDARY TROUGH TONIGHT WILL DELIVER SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FROM CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE START TO SLOWLY
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REBOUND WILL BE DUE IN PART TO AN EXTENDED RANGE SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM AND WHILE NOT TOO POTENT...IT SHOULD HELP GET DEW POINTS
ELEVATED ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 201120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...THERE IS RADIATION FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING THAT WE`RE HAVING TO DEAL WITH. EXPECT VSBY TO GO
UNRESTRICTED BY 13Z AT THE LATEST. THEN LOOK FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAVE THE TAF`S VFR THRU THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT CKV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  I
MEAN...NONE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WORKWEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY.

IF THERE IS ANYTHING WORTH A MENTION IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
PACKAGE IT`S THIS REALLY IMPOTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING SWWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...
BUT WE MAY ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ONLY CHANGE I`LL MAKE TO
THE WHOLE POP FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN A SMALL POP FOR
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME WET PAVEMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND
MIDDLE TN. AGAIN...NOT SIGNIFICANT...BUT WORTH A MENTION.

THIS SECONDARY TROUGH TONIGHT WILL DELIVER SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FROM CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE START TO SLOWLY
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REBOUND WILL BE DUE IN PART TO AN EXTENDED RANGE SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM AND WHILE NOT TOO POTENT...IT SHOULD HELP GET DEW POINTS
ELEVATED ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  I
MEAN...NONE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WORKWEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY.

IF THERE IS ANYTHING WORTH A MENTION IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
PACKAGE IT`S THIS REALLY IMPOTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING SWWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...
BUT WE MAY ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ONLY CHANGE I`LL MAKE TO
THE WHOLE POP FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN A SMALL POP FOR
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME WET PAVEMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND
MIDDLE TN. AGAIN...NOT SIGNIFICANT...BUT WORTH A MENTION.

THIS SECONDARY TROUGH TONIGHT WILL DELIVER SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FROM CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE START TO SLOWLY
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REBOUND WILL BE DUE IN PART TO AN EXTENDED RANGE SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM AND WHILE NOT TOO POTENT...IT SHOULD HELP GET DEW POINTS
ELEVATED ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  50  67  43 /  10  20   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    67  48  66  41 /  10  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     65  46  62  40 /  20  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       70  50  68  43 /  05  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   70  51  69  43 /  05  20   0   0
WAVERLY        69  49  68  43 /  05  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  I
MEAN...NONE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WORKWEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY.

IF THERE IS ANYTHING WORTH A MENTION IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
PACKAGE IT`S THIS REALLY IMPOTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING SWWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...
BUT WE MAY ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ONLY CHANGE I`LL MAKE TO
THE WHOLE POP FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN A SMALL POP FOR
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME WET PAVEMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND
MIDDLE TN. AGAIN...NOT SIGNIFICANT...BUT WORTH A MENTION.

THIS SECONDARY TROUGH TONIGHT WILL DELIVER SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FROM CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE START TO SLOWLY
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REBOUND WILL BE DUE IN PART TO AN EXTENDED RANGE SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM AND WHILE NOT TOO POTENT...IT SHOULD HELP GET DEW POINTS
ELEVATED ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  50  67  43 /  10  20   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    67  48  66  41 /  10  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     65  46  62  40 /  20  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       70  50  68  43 /  05  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   70  51  69  43 /  05  20   0   0
WAVERLY        69  49  68  43 /  05  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200454
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 200454
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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