Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KOHX 271204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
604 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING AS A CANADIAN CLIPPER SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME -SN
IS FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT KCSV...WHICH IS REDUCING VIS THERE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

CIGS WILL STAY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL...BUT BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 271204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
604 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING AS A CANADIAN CLIPPER SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME -SN
IS FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT KCSV...WHICH IS REDUCING VIS THERE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

CIGS WILL STAY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL...BUT BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      41  25  49  36 /  20  05   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    39  23  48  36 /  10  05   0  05
CROSSVILLE     38  21  42  32 /  30  05   0  05
COLUMBIA       41  24  49  35 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  24  50  34 /  10   0   0  05
WAVERLY        41  24  50  37 /  10  05   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      41  25  49  36 /  20  05   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    39  23  48  36 /  10  05   0  05
CROSSVILLE     38  21  42  32 /  30  05   0  05
COLUMBIA       41  24  49  35 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  24  50  34 /  10   0   0  05
WAVERLY        41  24  50  37 /  10  05   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      41  25  49  36 /  20  05   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    39  23  48  36 /  10  05   0  05
CROSSVILLE     38  21  42  32 /  30  05   0  05
COLUMBIA       41  24  49  35 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   42  24  50  34 /  10   0   0  05
WAVERLY        41  24  50  37 /  10  05   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270602 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1202 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...TEMPO PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MINIMAL
VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED CKV/BNA. ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/BEST LIFTING MECHANISMS
AROUND OR N OF CSV THRU 27/15Z...WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL RATE RESULTING IN MVFR
VSBYS BUT OVERALL ICING IMPACTS MINIMAL...AS TEMPO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TRANSITION INTO PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS. CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR CKV TO IFR
CSV THRU AT LEAST 27/15Z. SFC GUSTS TO 20KTS CKV/BNA TO 30KTS CSV THRU 27/11Z
PER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. INFLUENCES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE GENERALLY
E OF MID STATE AFTER 27/18Z...AND WITH DRY NWLY FLOW AND BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES EXPECTED...CEILING EROSIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 27/18Z W TO AROUND
28/00Z E WITH NWLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 843 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CUTTING DOWN POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...850 MB MOISTURE
STILL ATTEMPTS TO HANG ON BACK TO THE TN RIVER THROUGH 12Z. MODELS
DO PICK UP ON TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE. OTW...NO CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR THE
ADVISORY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 628 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE NEAREST SUB FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS ARE UP IN SRN IL. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IS ACROSS THAT SRN IL AREA. NOW THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK OUR WAY
BUT THE CLOSED CENTER WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MID STATE.
THUS...STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BUT THE LATEST
WPC AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW ACCUM.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PULL THE PLUG ON ANY OF THE SOUTHERN
ADVISORY AREAS AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO PERHAPS
TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE PLATEAU CAN BE A
STRANGE ANIMAL AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF ACCUM SEEM TO COME IN MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT.

SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MOVE BACK THE TIMING OF THE SNOW ONSET BY
A FEW HOURS ONLY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WAR RENT CHANGING THE ADVISORY
VALID TIME. ALSO...WILL TREND DOWN THE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANKSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-
031>034-065-066-080.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270602 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1202 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...TEMPO PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MINIMAL
VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED CKV/BNA. ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/BEST LIFTING MECHANISMS
AROUND OR N OF CSV THRU 27/15Z...WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL RATE RESULTING IN MVFR
VSBYS BUT OVERALL ICING IMPACTS MINIMAL...AS TEMPO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TRANSITION INTO PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS. CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR CKV TO IFR
CSV THRU AT LEAST 27/15Z. SFC GUSTS TO 20KTS CKV/BNA TO 30KTS CSV THRU 27/11Z
PER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. INFLUENCES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE GENERALLY
E OF MID STATE AFTER 27/18Z...AND WITH DRY NWLY FLOW AND BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES EXPECTED...CEILING EROSIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 27/18Z W TO AROUND
28/00Z E WITH NWLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 843 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CUTTING DOWN POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...850 MB MOISTURE
STILL ATTEMPTS TO HANG ON BACK TO THE TN RIVER THROUGH 12Z. MODELS
DO PICK UP ON TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE. OTW...NO CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR THE
ADVISORY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 628 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE NEAREST SUB FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS ARE UP IN SRN IL. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IS ACROSS THAT SRN IL AREA. NOW THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK OUR WAY
BUT THE CLOSED CENTER WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MID STATE.
THUS...STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BUT THE LATEST
WPC AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW ACCUM.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PULL THE PLUG ON ANY OF THE SOUTHERN
ADVISORY AREAS AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO PERHAPS
TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE PLATEAU CAN BE A
STRANGE ANIMAL AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF ACCUM SEEM TO COME IN MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT.

SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MOVE BACK THE TIMING OF THE SNOW ONSET BY
A FEW HOURS ONLY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WAR RENT CHANGING THE ADVISORY
VALID TIME. ALSO...WILL TREND DOWN THE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANKSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-
031>034-065-066-080.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270243
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
843 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CUTTING DOWN POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...850 MB MOISTURE
STILL ATTEMPTS TO HANG ON BACK TO THE TN RIVER THROUGH 12Z. MODELS
DO PICK UP ON TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE. OTW...NO CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR THE
ADVISORY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE NEAREST SUB FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS ARE UP IN SRN IL. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IS ACROSS THAT SRN IL AREA. NOW THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK OUR WAY
BUT THE CLOSED CENTER WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MID STATE.
THUS...STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BUT THE LATEST
WPC AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW ACCUM.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PULL THE PLUG ON ANY OF THE SOUTHERN
ADVISORY AREAS AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO PERHAPS
TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE PLATEAU CAN BE A
STRANGE ANIMAL AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF ACCUM SEEM TO COME IN MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT.

SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MOVE BACK THE TIMING OF THE SNOW ONSET BY
A FEW HOURS ONLY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WAR RENT CHANGING THE ADVISORY
VALID TIME. ALSO...WILL TREND DOWN THE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANSKGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270243
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
843 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CUTTING DOWN POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...850 MB MOISTURE
STILL ATTEMPTS TO HANG ON BACK TO THE TN RIVER THROUGH 12Z. MODELS
DO PICK UP ON TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE. OTW...NO CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR THE
ADVISORY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE NEAREST SUB FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS ARE UP IN SRN IL. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IS ACROSS THAT SRN IL AREA. NOW THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK OUR WAY
BUT THE CLOSED CENTER WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MID STATE.
THUS...STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BUT THE LATEST
WPC AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW ACCUM.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PULL THE PLUG ON ANY OF THE SOUTHERN
ADVISORY AREAS AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO PERHAPS
TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE PLATEAU CAN BE A
STRANGE ANIMAL AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF ACCUM SEEM TO COME IN MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT.

SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MOVE BACK THE TIMING OF THE SNOW ONSET BY
A FEW HOURS ONLY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WAR RENT CHANGING THE ADVISORY
VALID TIME. ALSO...WILL TREND DOWN THE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANSKGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270028
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE NEAREST SUB FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS ARE UP IN SRN IL. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IS ACROSS THAT SRN IL AREA. NOW THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK OUR WAY
BUT THE CLOSED CENTER WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MID STATE.
THUS...STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BUT THE LATEST
WPC AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW ACCUM.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PULL THE PLUG ON ANY OF THE SOUTHERN
ADVISORY AREAS AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO PERHAPS
TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE PLATEAU CAN BE A
STRANGE ANIMAL AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF ACCUM SEEM TO COME IN MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT.

SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MOVE BACK THE TIMING OF THE SNOW ONSET BY
A FEW HOURS ONLY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WAR RENT CHANGING THE ADVISORY
VALID TIME. ALSO...WILL TREND DOWN THE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANSKGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      33  41  24  50 /  50  10  05   0
CLARKSVILLE    32  39  21  49 /  60  10  05   0
CROSSVILLE     31  38  20  42 /  80  20  05   0
COLUMBIA       33  41  23  51 /  40  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   33  41  23  52 /  20  10   0   0
WAVERLY        33  40  22  51 /  40  10  05   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270028
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE NEAREST SUB FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS ARE UP IN SRN IL. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IS ACROSS THAT SRN IL AREA. NOW THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK OUR WAY
BUT THE CLOSED CENTER WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MID STATE.
THUS...STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BUT THE LATEST
WPC AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW ACCUM.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PULL THE PLUG ON ANY OF THE SOUTHERN
ADVISORY AREAS AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO PERHAPS
TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE PLATEAU CAN BE A
STRANGE ANIMAL AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF ACCUM SEEM TO COME IN MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT.

SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MOVE BACK THE TIMING OF THE SNOW ONSET BY
A FEW HOURS ONLY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WAR RENT CHANGING THE ADVISORY
VALID TIME. ALSO...WILL TREND DOWN THE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANSKGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      33  41  24  50 /  50  10  05   0
CLARKSVILLE    32  39  21  49 /  60  10  05   0
CROSSVILLE     31  38  20  42 /  80  20  05   0
COLUMBIA       33  41  23  51 /  40  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   33  41  23  52 /  20  10   0   0
WAVERLY        33  40  22  51 /  40  10  05   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270019 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIGHT RAIN WITH MINIMAL VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED.
ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/BEST LIFTING MECHANISMS AROUND OR N OF CSV 27/03Z-27/12Z...
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL RATE RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS BUT OVERALL ICING IMPACTS
MINIMAL. CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR CKV TO VFR CSV WILL GENERALLY SETTLE INTO
THE LOW MVFR END AS BRUNT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS MID STATE
THRU 27/06Z W -27/12Z E AND NWLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS BUILD IN BEHIND SFC
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY BE EXPERIENCED CKV/BNA
27/05Z-27/08Z...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VSBYS OR ICING IMPACTS EXPECTED. INFLUENCES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE GENERALLY E OF MID STATE AFTER 27/18Z...AND
WITH DRY NWLY FLOW AND BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES EXPECTED...CEILING EROSIONS
EXPECTED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 27/18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANKSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270019 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIGHT RAIN WITH MINIMAL VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED.
ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/BEST LIFTING MECHANISMS AROUND OR N OF CSV 27/03Z-27/12Z...
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL RATE RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS BUT OVERALL ICING IMPACTS
MINIMAL. CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR CKV TO VFR CSV WILL GENERALLY SETTLE INTO
THE LOW MVFR END AS BRUNT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS MID STATE
THRU 27/06Z W -27/12Z E AND NWLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS BUILD IN BEHIND SFC
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY BE EXPERIENCED CKV/BNA
27/05Z-27/08Z...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VSBYS OR ICING IMPACTS EXPECTED. INFLUENCES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE GENERALLY E OF MID STATE AFTER 27/18Z...AND
WITH DRY NWLY FLOW AND BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES EXPECTED...CEILING EROSIONS
EXPECTED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 27/18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANKSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 262006
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

.CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANSKGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      33  41  24  50 /  50  10  05   0
CLARKSVILLE    32  39  21  49 /  70  10  05   0
CROSSVILLE     31  38  20  42 /  90  20  05   0
COLUMBIA       33  41  23  51 /  30  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   33  41  23  52 /  20  10   0   0
WAVERLY        33  40  22  51 /  40  10  05   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 262006
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

.CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANSKGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      33  41  24  50 /  50  10  05   0
CLARKSVILLE    32  39  21  49 /  70  10  05   0
CROSSVILLE     31  38  20  42 /  90  20  05   0
COLUMBIA       33  41  23  51 /  30  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   33  41  23  52 /  20  10   0   0
WAVERLY        33  40  22  51 /  40  10  05   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261753
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1153 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM. -RN WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT CKV AND BNA AROUND 27/00Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT
-RN AT CSV AROUND 27/03Z. -RN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO -SN AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CSV WILL BE THE FIRST TERMINAL
TO SEE THIS CHANGEOVER. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT OF CKV AND BNA
QUICKLY ENDING THE -SN. FOR CSV -SN COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL
DAYBREAK TOMORROW EVEN AFTER THE MAIN LIFT HAS EXITED THE AREA.
WINDS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WILL VEER OVER TIME TO THE NE AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TODAY`S GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS. MAIN AREA OF OVC, NOW PUSHING INTO
WESTERN TN, IS ADVANCING EAST AT ABOUT 20 KTS AND SHOULD BE
REACHING OUR MOST WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY MID-TO-HI CLDS NOW ADVANCING RAPIDLY TO THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BELIEVE EASTERN AREAS WILL END UP WITH MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY AND HAVE LESSENED OUR CLOUD EXPECTATIONS THERE.
AS A RESULT, HAVE ALSO PULLED MAIN PRECIP AREA A BIT FURTHER TO
THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261753
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1153 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM. -RN WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT CKV AND BNA AROUND 27/00Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT
-RN AT CSV AROUND 27/03Z. -RN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO -SN AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CSV WILL BE THE FIRST TERMINAL
TO SEE THIS CHANGEOVER. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT OF CKV AND BNA
QUICKLY ENDING THE -SN. FOR CSV -SN COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL
DAYBREAK TOMORROW EVEN AFTER THE MAIN LIFT HAS EXITED THE AREA.
WINDS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WILL VEER OVER TIME TO THE NE AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TODAY`S GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS. MAIN AREA OF OVC, NOW PUSHING INTO
WESTERN TN, IS ADVANCING EAST AT ABOUT 20 KTS AND SHOULD BE
REACHING OUR MOST WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY MID-TO-HI CLDS NOW ADVANCING RAPIDLY TO THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BELIEVE EASTERN AREAS WILL END UP WITH MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY AND HAVE LESSENED OUR CLOUD EXPECTATIONS THERE.
AS A RESULT, HAVE ALSO PULLED MAIN PRECIP AREA A BIT FURTHER TO
THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261618
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1018 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TODAY`S GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS. MAIN AREA OF OVC, NOW PUSHING INTO
WESTERN TN, IS ADVANCING EAST AT ABOUT 20 KTS AND SHOULD BE
REACHING OUR MOST WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY MID-TO-HI CLDS NOW ADVANCING RAPIDLY TO THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BELIEVE EASTERN AREAS WILL END UP WITH MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY AND HAVE LESSENED OUR CLOUD EXPECTATIONS THERE.
AS A RESULT, HAVE ALSO PULLED MAIN PRECIP AREA A BIT FURTHER TO
THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261618
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1018 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TODAY`S GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS. MAIN AREA OF OVC, NOW PUSHING INTO
WESTERN TN, IS ADVANCING EAST AT ABOUT 20 KTS AND SHOULD BE
REACHING OUR MOST WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY MID-TO-HI CLDS NOW ADVANCING RAPIDLY TO THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BELIEVE EASTERN AREAS WILL END UP WITH MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY AND HAVE LESSENED OUR CLOUD EXPECTATIONS THERE.
AS A RESULT, HAVE ALSO PULLED MAIN PRECIP AREA A BIT FURTHER TO
THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL CHANGE THIS
THOUGH, BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KCKV. BY 21-23Z THIS AFTERNOON, CIGS SHOULD START TO
FALL AT THE KCKV TERMINAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY SATURATES.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST.

BY 03Z WE MAY VERY WELL START TO SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM -RA TO -SN.
WHILE KCKV AND KBNA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS...KCSV
JUST MIGHT SEE SOME BY 12Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF
OVERNIGHT...AND VIS WILL BE REDUCED WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOMES NWLY THIS EVENING.  8 TO 10 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE
PRECIP OVER THE EAST COAST IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CONUS. MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED EAST OF THE CWA...AND
CURRENTLY THE CLOUD COVER IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE LARGER TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY...BUT
ANTICIPATING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW IS DIFFICULT ATTM.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY PLACING IT AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL KY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TN/AL BORDER.
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY AT
THE SURFACE BUT ALSO ALOFT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE OBVIOUSLY
SHOWING THE DIFFERENCES. THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ALSO
WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEGINS. WENT WITH MORE OF A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH SNOW AMOUNTS THAT KEPT TOTALS UP TO AN INCH
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. MOST OF THE QPF FROM THE MODELS
FALLS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD GET SNOW AFTER THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CHANCES FOR SOME FLURRIES ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH AROUND NOON OR SO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART KEPT CHANCES LOW FOR POPS
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AS 850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BETWEEN
MODELS. AS INDICATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION BROAD ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BY SATURDAY WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LINGERING INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL CHANGE THIS
THOUGH, BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KCKV. BY 21-23Z THIS AFTERNOON, CIGS SHOULD START TO
FALL AT THE KCKV TERMINAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY SATURATES.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST.

BY 03Z WE MAY VERY WELL START TO SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM -RA TO -SN.
WHILE KCKV AND KBNA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS...KCSV
JUST MIGHT SEE SOME BY 12Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF
OVERNIGHT...AND VIS WILL BE REDUCED WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOMES NWLY THIS EVENING.  8 TO 10 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE
PRECIP OVER THE EAST COAST IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CONUS. MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED EAST OF THE CWA...AND
CURRENTLY THE CLOUD COVER IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE LARGER TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY...BUT
ANTICIPATING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW IS DIFFICULT ATTM.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY PLACING IT AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL KY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TN/AL BORDER.
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY AT
THE SURFACE BUT ALSO ALOFT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE OBVIOUSLY
SHOWING THE DIFFERENCES. THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ALSO
WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEGINS. WENT WITH MORE OF A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH SNOW AMOUNTS THAT KEPT TOTALS UP TO AN INCH
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. MOST OF THE QPF FROM THE MODELS
FALLS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD GET SNOW AFTER THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CHANCES FOR SOME FLURRIES ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH AROUND NOON OR SO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART KEPT CHANCES LOW FOR POPS
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AS 850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BETWEEN
MODELS. AS INDICATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION BROAD ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BY SATURDAY WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LINGERING INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 261015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE
PRECIP OVER THE EAST COAST IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CONUS. MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED EAST OF THE CWA...AND
CURRENTLY THE CLOUD COVER IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE LARGER TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY...BUT
ANTICIPATING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW IS DIFFICULT ATTM.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY PLACING IT AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL KY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TN/AL BORDER.
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY AT
THE SURFACE BUT ALSO ALOFT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE OBVIOUSLY
SHOWING THE DIFFERENCES. THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ALSO
WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEGINS. WENT WITH MORE OF A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH SNOW AMOUNTS THAT KEPT TOTALS UP TO AN INCH
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. MOST OF THE QPF FROM THE MODELS
FALLS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD GET SNOW AFTER THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CHANCES FOR SOME FLURRIES ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH AROUND NOON OR SO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART KEPT CHANCES LOW FOR POPS
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AS 850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BETWEEN
MODELS. AS INDICATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION BROAD ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BY SATURDAY WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LINGERING INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  33  42  26 /  30  40  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  32  41  25 /  50  40  10  05
CROSSVILLE     46  31  39  24 /  20  50  20  05
COLUMBIA       50  33  43  26 /  20  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   51  33  43  27 /  20  20  10   0
WAVERLY        49  33  42  26 /  40  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE
PRECIP OVER THE EAST COAST IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CONUS. MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED EAST OF THE CWA...AND
CURRENTLY THE CLOUD COVER IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE LARGER TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY...BUT
ANTICIPATING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW IS DIFFICULT ATTM.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY PLACING IT AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL KY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TN/AL BORDER.
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY AT
THE SURFACE BUT ALSO ALOFT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE OBVIOUSLY
SHOWING THE DIFFERENCES. THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ALSO
WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEGINS. WENT WITH MORE OF A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH SNOW AMOUNTS THAT KEPT TOTALS UP TO AN INCH
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. MOST OF THE QPF FROM THE MODELS
FALLS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD GET SNOW AFTER THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CHANCES FOR SOME FLURRIES ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH AROUND NOON OR SO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART KEPT CHANCES LOW FOR POPS
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AS 850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BETWEEN
MODELS. AS INDICATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION BROAD ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BY SATURDAY WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LINGERING INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  33  42  26 /  30  40  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    47  32  41  25 /  50  40  10  05
CROSSVILLE     46  31  39  24 /  20  50  20  05
COLUMBIA       50  33  43  26 /  20  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   51  33  43  27 /  20  20  10   0
WAVERLY        49  33  42  26 /  40  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260552 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...MIXED PCPN POTENTIAL CSV 26/06Z-26/10Z AND LIGHT RAINFALL
IMPACTS 26/20Z-27/06Z. STORM SYSTEM ACROSS GULF...FL...AND INTO SE ATLANTIC
SHOULD CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE TO ERN PORTIONS OF MID STATE WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF MARGINAL MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL ATM
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE HERE AND THERE CSV 26/06Z-
26/11Z...BUT MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
SHOULD SUPPORT EROSIONS OF CEILINGS ERN HALF MID STATE BY 26/11Z. WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM SFC/ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AFTER 26/18Z
WITH AT LEAST STRATUS VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BUT AVIATION IMPACTS MINIMAL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 607 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...CEILING EROSIONS 26/07Z-26/11Z...MIXED PCPN POTENTIAL CSV
AROUND 26/06Z...AND LIGHT RAINFALL IMPACTS 26/20Z. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AT LEAST LAST FEW HRS APPROACHING 26/24Z. STORM SYSTEM ACROSS GULF...
FL...AND INTO SE ATLANTIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO USHER IN AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE MID STATE THRU 26/06Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH MID TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ATM INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE CSV 26/06Z-26/11Z...BUT MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD SUPPORT EROSIONS OF ALL CEILINGS MID STATE BY 26/11Z.
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SFC/ALOFT SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT
26/18Z W - E 26/24Z WITH AT LEAST STRATUS VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BUT
AVIATION VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING TONIGHT IN THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO 30S ELSEWHERE SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE.
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WESTERN
EDGE OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CSV SHOW
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WARM SO ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN TEMPS COULD COOL
ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
EXITING THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES...WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREAWIDE AS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SHOW WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO BELOW 600MB...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THERMO PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH ON THE PLATEAU FOR A POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULB ZERO TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IF ANY LOOKS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A FEW TENTHS IN GRIDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...A COLD THANKSGIVING IS IN
STORE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER SHOWING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S AND INTO THE 40S. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE-TYPE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION...BUT NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR ALL
ZONES. HOWEVER...A BIG WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. CONTINUED WAA AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PROMPT LOW POPS EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 260007 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
607 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...CEILING EROSIONS 26/07Z-26/11Z...MIXED PCPN POTENTIAL CSV
AROUND 26/06Z...AND LIGHT RAINFALL IMPACTS 26/20Z. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AT LEAST LAST FEW HRS APPROACHING 26/24Z. STORM SYSTEM ACROSS GULF...
FL...AND INTO SE ATLANTIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO USHER IN AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE MID STATE THRU 26/06Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH MID TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ATM INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE CSV 26/06Z-26/11Z...BUT MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD SUPPORT EROSIONS OF ALL CEILINGS MID STATE BY 26/11Z.
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SFC/ALOFT SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT
26/18Z W - E 26/24Z WITH AT LEAST STRATUS VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BUT
AVIATION VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING TONIGHT IN THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO 30S ELSEWHERE SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE.
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WESTERN
EDGE OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CSV SHOW
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WARM SO ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN TEMPS COULD COOL
ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
EXITING THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES...WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREAWIDE AS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SHOW WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO BELOW 600MB...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THERMO PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH ON THE PLATEAU FOR A POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULB ZERO TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IF ANY LOOKS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A FEW TENTHS IN GRIDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...A COLD THANKSGIVING IS IN
STORE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER SHOWING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S AND INTO THE 40S. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE-TYPE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION...BUT NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR ALL
ZONES. HOWEVER...A BIG WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. CONTINUED WAA AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PROMPT LOW POPS EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 260007 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
607 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...CEILING EROSIONS 26/07Z-26/11Z...MIXED PCPN POTENTIAL CSV
AROUND 26/06Z...AND LIGHT RAINFALL IMPACTS 26/20Z. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AT LEAST LAST FEW HRS APPROACHING 26/24Z. STORM SYSTEM ACROSS GULF...
FL...AND INTO SE ATLANTIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO USHER IN AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE MID STATE THRU 26/06Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ENOUGH MID TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ATM INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE CSV 26/06Z-26/11Z...BUT MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD SUPPORT EROSIONS OF ALL CEILINGS MID STATE BY 26/11Z.
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SFC/ALOFT SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT
26/18Z W - E 26/24Z WITH AT LEAST STRATUS VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BUT
AVIATION VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING TONIGHT IN THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO 30S ELSEWHERE SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE.
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WESTERN
EDGE OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CSV SHOW
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WARM SO ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN TEMPS COULD COOL
ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
EXITING THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES...WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREAWIDE AS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SHOW WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO BELOW 600MB...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THERMO PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH ON THE PLATEAU FOR A POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULB ZERO TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IF ANY LOOKS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A FEW TENTHS IN GRIDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...A COLD THANKSGIVING IS IN
STORE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER SHOWING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S AND INTO THE 40S. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE-TYPE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION...BUT NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR ALL
ZONES. HOWEVER...A BIG WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. CONTINUED WAA AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PROMPT LOW POPS EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 252312
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
NRN FLA TONIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM IS RATHER LARGE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUDINESS EXTENDS TO THE
MS RIVER. STILL LOOKING AT LOW CHANCES FOR A RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
SNOW MIX LATE TONIGHT FOR THE PLATEAU. HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP EAST OF THE
MID STATE. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN FOR NOW.

ONLY CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY STILL BE A TAD TOO HIGH. I MAY ADDRESS THAT
LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING TONIGHT IN THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO 30S ELSEWHERE SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE.
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WESTERN
EDGE OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CSV SHOW
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WARM SO ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN TEMPS COULD COOL
ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
EXITING THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES...WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREAWIDE AS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SHOW WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO BELOW 600MB...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THERMO PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH ON THE PLATEAU FOR A POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULB ZERO TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IF ANY LOOKS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A FEW TENTHS IN GRIDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...A COLD THANKSGIVING IS IN
STORE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER SHOWING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S AND INTO THE 40S. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE-TYPE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION...BUT NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR ALL
ZONES. HOWEVER...A BIG WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. CONTINUED WAA AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PROMPT LOW POPS EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 252312
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
NRN FLA TONIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM IS RATHER LARGE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUDINESS EXTENDS TO THE
MS RIVER. STILL LOOKING AT LOW CHANCES FOR A RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
SNOW MIX LATE TONIGHT FOR THE PLATEAU. HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP EAST OF THE
MID STATE. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN FOR NOW.

ONLY CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY STILL BE A TAD TOO HIGH. I MAY ADDRESS THAT
LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING TONIGHT IN THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO 30S ELSEWHERE SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE.
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WESTERN
EDGE OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CSV SHOW
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WARM SO ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN TEMPS COULD COOL
ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
EXITING THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES...WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREAWIDE AS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SHOW WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO BELOW 600MB...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THERMO PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH ON THE PLATEAU FOR A POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULB ZERO TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IF ANY LOOKS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A FEW TENTHS IN GRIDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...A COLD THANKSGIVING IS IN
STORE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER SHOWING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S AND INTO THE 40S. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE-TYPE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION...BUT NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR ALL
ZONES. HOWEVER...A BIG WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. CONTINUED WAA AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PROMPT LOW POPS EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 252121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING TONIGHT IN THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO 30S ELSEWHERE SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE.
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WESTERN
EDGE OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CSV SHOW
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WARM SO ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN TEMPS COULD COOL
ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
EXITING THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES...WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREAWIDE AS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SHOW WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO BELOW 600MB...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THERMO PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH ON THE PLATEAU FOR A POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULB ZERO TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IF ANY LOOKS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A FEW TENTHS IN GRIDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...A COLD THANKSGIVING IS IN
STORE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER SHOWING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S AND INTO THE 40S. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE-TYPE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION...BUT NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR ALL
ZONES. HOWEVER...A BIG WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. CONTINUED WAA AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PROMPT LOW POPS EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      31  50  34  42 /  05  40  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    27  47  33  41 /  05  50  30  10
CROSSVILLE     31  46  31  39 /  20  20  50  20
COLUMBIA       31  50  34  42 /  05  20  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   31  51  33  43 /  05  20  10  10
WAVERLY        28  49  33  42 /  05  40  20  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER







000
FXUS64 KOHX 252121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING TONIGHT IN THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO 30S ELSEWHERE SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE.
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WESTERN
EDGE OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CSV SHOW
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WARM SO ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN TEMPS COULD COOL
ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
EXITING THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES...WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREAWIDE AS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SHOW WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO BELOW 600MB...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THERMO PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH ON THE PLATEAU FOR A POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULB ZERO TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IF ANY LOOKS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A FEW TENTHS IN GRIDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...A COLD THANKSGIVING IS IN
STORE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER SHOWING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S AND INTO THE 40S. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE-TYPE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION...BUT NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR ALL
ZONES. HOWEVER...A BIG WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. CONTINUED WAA AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PROMPT LOW POPS EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      31  50  34  42 /  05  40  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    27  47  33  41 /  05  50  30  10
CROSSVILLE     31  46  31  39 /  20  20  50  20
COLUMBIA       31  50  34  42 /  05  20  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   31  51  33  43 /  05  20  10  10
WAVERLY        28  49  33  42 /  05  40  20  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251749
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CSV WILL BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE FRINGES OF
THE EAST COAST SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-8KT CATEGORY
TODAY BEFORE CALMING AFTER SUNSET. STARTING AT CKV, WINDS TOMORROW
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD
AREAWIDE BUT STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS TROUGH
IS WHAT WILL HELP DEVELOP THE EAST COAST STORM EXPECTED TO BRING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TOMORROW. REST OF
OUR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251749
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CSV WILL BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE FRINGES OF
THE EAST COAST SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-8KT CATEGORY
TODAY BEFORE CALMING AFTER SUNSET. STARTING AT CKV, WINDS TOMORROW
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD
AREAWIDE BUT STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS TROUGH
IS WHAT WILL HELP DEVELOP THE EAST COAST STORM EXPECTED TO BRING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TOMORROW. REST OF
OUR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251542
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
942 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD
AREAWIDE BUT STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS TROUGH
IS WHAT WILL HELP DEVELOP THE EAST COAST STORM EXPECTED TO BRING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TOMORROW. REST OF
OUR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CSV AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. CSV WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN FROM
AN ORGANIZING EAST COAST SYSTEM. AN EYE WILL BE KEPT ON CSV AFTER
05Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO MENTION IN THE PREVAILING LINE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE SUSTAINED AT 6-7 KTS TODAY
BEFORE CALMING AFTER SUNSET.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND BELOW
FREEZING EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US AND PULLS GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE EAST COAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE THE POPS AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT A FEW HAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE CLIPPED WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AFTER AROUND 09Z SO SNOW MAY
MIX IN. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING INDICATIONS OF SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS GETTING NEAR 32F...AND SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR SNOW AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OR MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER
EAST WILL RESULT IN ALL RAIN OR VERY LITTLE PRECIP.

NEXT SHORTWAVE CLIPPER MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SHOULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AGAIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST MAY GET SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT COLDER THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED
TO WED MORNING. HAVE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
ATTM...BUT NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT WARMER
OUT EAST BETWEEN RUNS. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY MODELS SWING WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. 850MB TEMPS WILL
LARGELY BE BELOW 0C EVEN AT 00Z FRIDAY...SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FRIDAY AND BEYOND HOWEVER WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW AT HIGH
LEVELS AND LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB...SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60S RETURNING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251542
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
942 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD
AREAWIDE BUT STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS TROUGH
IS WHAT WILL HELP DEVELOP THE EAST COAST STORM EXPECTED TO BRING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TOMORROW. REST OF
OUR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CSV AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. CSV WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN FROM
AN ORGANIZING EAST COAST SYSTEM. AN EYE WILL BE KEPT ON CSV AFTER
05Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO MENTION IN THE PREVAILING LINE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE SUSTAINED AT 6-7 KTS TODAY
BEFORE CALMING AFTER SUNSET.

REAGAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND BELOW
FREEZING EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US AND PULLS GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE EAST COAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE THE POPS AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT A FEW HAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE CLIPPED WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AFTER AROUND 09Z SO SNOW MAY
MIX IN. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING INDICATIONS OF SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS GETTING NEAR 32F...AND SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR SNOW AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OR MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER
EAST WILL RESULT IN ALL RAIN OR VERY LITTLE PRECIP.

NEXT SHORTWAVE CLIPPER MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SHOULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AGAIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST MAY GET SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT COLDER THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED
TO WED MORNING. HAVE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
ATTM...BUT NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT WARMER
OUT EAST BETWEEN RUNS. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY MODELS SWING WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. 850MB TEMPS WILL
LARGELY BE BELOW 0C EVEN AT 00Z FRIDAY...SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FRIDAY AND BEYOND HOWEVER WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW AT HIGH
LEVELS AND LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB...SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60S RETURNING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251146
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CSV AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. CSV WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN FROM
AN ORGANIZING EAST COAST SYSTEM. AN EYE WILL BE KEPT ON CSV AFTER
05Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO MENTION IN THE PREVAILING LINE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE SUSTAINED AT 6-7 KTS TODAY
BEFORE CALMING AFTER SUNSET.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND BELOW
FREEZING EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US AND PULLS GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE EAST COAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE THE POPS AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT A FEW HAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE CLIPPED WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AFTER AROUND 09Z SO SNOW MAY
MIX IN. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING INDICATIONS OF SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS GETTING NEAR 32F...AND SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR SNOW AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OR MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER
EAST WILL RESULT IN ALL RAIN OR VERY LITTLE PRECIP.

NEXT SHORTWAVE CLIPPER MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SHOULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AGAIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST MAY GET SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT COLDER THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED
TO WED MORNING. HAVE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
ATTM...BUT NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT WARMER
OUT EAST BETWEEN RUNS. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY MODELS SWING WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. 850MB TEMPS WILL
LARGELY BE BELOW 0C EVEN AT 00Z FRIDAY...SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FRIDAY AND BEYOND HOWEVER WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW AT HIGH
LEVELS AND LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB...SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60S RETURNING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251146
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CSV AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. CSV WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN FROM
AN ORGANIZING EAST COAST SYSTEM. AN EYE WILL BE KEPT ON CSV AFTER
05Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO MENTION IN THE PREVAILING LINE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE SUSTAINED AT 6-7 KTS TODAY
BEFORE CALMING AFTER SUNSET.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND BELOW
FREEZING EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US AND PULLS GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE EAST COAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE THE POPS AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT A FEW HAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE CLIPPED WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AFTER AROUND 09Z SO SNOW MAY
MIX IN. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING INDICATIONS OF SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS GETTING NEAR 32F...AND SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR SNOW AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OR MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER
EAST WILL RESULT IN ALL RAIN OR VERY LITTLE PRECIP.

NEXT SHORTWAVE CLIPPER MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SHOULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AGAIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST MAY GET SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT COLDER THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED
TO WED MORNING. HAVE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
ATTM...BUT NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT WARMER
OUT EAST BETWEEN RUNS. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY MODELS SWING WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. 850MB TEMPS WILL
LARGELY BE BELOW 0C EVEN AT 00Z FRIDAY...SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FRIDAY AND BEYOND HOWEVER WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW AT HIGH
LEVELS AND LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB...SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60S RETURNING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

10







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251038
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
438 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND BELOW
FREEZING EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US AND PULLS GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE EAST COAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE THE POPS AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT A FEW HAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE CLIPPED WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AFTER AROUND 09Z SO SNOW MAY
MIX IN. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING INDICATIONS OF SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS GETTING NEAR 32F...AND SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR SNOW AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OR MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER
EAST WILL RESULT IN ALL RAIN OR VERY LITTLE PRECIP.

NEXT SHORTWAVE CLIPPER MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SHOULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AGAIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST MAY GET SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT COLDER THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED
TO WED MORNING. HAVE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
ATTM...BUT NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT WARMER
OUT EAST BETWEEN RUNS. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY MODELS SWING WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. 850MB TEMPS WILL
LARGELY BE BELOW 0C EVEN AT 00Z FRIDAY...SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FRIDAY AND BEYOND HOWEVER WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW AT HIGH
LEVELS AND LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB...SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60S RETURNING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  30  51  34 /  05  10  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    47  27  48  32 /  05  10  30  20
CROSSVILLE     50  31  47  31 /  05  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       51  30  52  34 /  05  10  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   51  31  52  34 /  05  10  20  10
WAVERLY        48  29  50  33 /  05  05  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251038
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
438 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND BELOW
FREEZING EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US AND PULLS GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE EAST COAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE THE POPS AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT A FEW HAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE CLIPPED WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AFTER AROUND 09Z SO SNOW MAY
MIX IN. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING INDICATIONS OF SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS GETTING NEAR 32F...AND SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR SNOW AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OR MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER
EAST WILL RESULT IN ALL RAIN OR VERY LITTLE PRECIP.

NEXT SHORTWAVE CLIPPER MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SHOULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AGAIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST MAY GET SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT COLDER THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED
TO WED MORNING. HAVE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
ATTM...BUT NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT WARMER
OUT EAST BETWEEN RUNS. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY MODELS SWING WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. 850MB TEMPS WILL
LARGELY BE BELOW 0C EVEN AT 00Z FRIDAY...SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FRIDAY AND BEYOND HOWEVER WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW AT HIGH
LEVELS AND LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB...SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60S RETURNING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  30  51  34 /  05  10  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    47  27  48  32 /  05  10  30  20
CROSSVILLE     50  31  47  31 /  05  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       51  30  52  34 /  05  10  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   51  31  52  34 /  05  10  20  10
WAVERLY        48  29  50  33 /  05  05  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251038
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
438 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND BELOW
FREEZING EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US AND PULLS GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE EAST COAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE THE POPS AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT A FEW HAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE CLIPPED WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AFTER AROUND 09Z SO SNOW MAY
MIX IN. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING INDICATIONS OF SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS GETTING NEAR 32F...AND SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR SNOW AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OR MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER
EAST WILL RESULT IN ALL RAIN OR VERY LITTLE PRECIP.

NEXT SHORTWAVE CLIPPER MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SHOULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AGAIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST MAY GET SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT COLDER THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED
TO WED MORNING. HAVE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
ATTM...BUT NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT WARMER
OUT EAST BETWEEN RUNS. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY MODELS SWING WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. 850MB TEMPS WILL
LARGELY BE BELOW 0C EVEN AT 00Z FRIDAY...SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FRIDAY AND BEYOND HOWEVER WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW AT HIGH
LEVELS AND LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB...SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60S RETURNING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  30  51  34 /  05  10  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    47  27  48  32 /  05  10  30  20
CROSSVILLE     50  31  47  31 /  05  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       51  30  52  34 /  05  10  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   51  31  52  34 /  05  10  20  10
WAVERLY        48  29  50  33 /  05  05  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 250514
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1114 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS
THROUGH TUE. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
TRACK TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE TAF PD. THE CSV AREA
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE.
THUS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR CSV LATE IN THE TAF
PD.

&&

FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW 10KNTS
THROUGH TUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 975MB SURFACE LOW NOW WELL OFF INTO CANADA
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING ACROSS THE MID STATE. WINDS HAVE
CORRESPONDINGLY BEGUN SUBSIDING WITH GUSTS NOW DOWN TO AROUND 25
KTS. THUS WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AT 21Z INSTEAD OF 00Z IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF
THE CWA...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AND FALL SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY MORNING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG EAST COAST SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
MAY CLIP THE PLATEAU COUNTIES. THUS WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TIMING AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. WAA INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
CWA. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
30S MAY BRING ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

THANKSGIVING CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S. HOWEVER...12Z
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SWITCH TO A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MAKES THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S AND EVEN 60S...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 250159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
759 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW 10KNTS
THROUGH TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 975MB SURFACE LOW NOW WELL OFF INTO CANADA
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING ACROSS THE MID STATE. WINDS HAVE
CORRESPONDINGLY BEGUN SUBSIDING WITH GUSTS NOW DOWN TO AROUND 25
KTS. THUS WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AT 21Z INSTEAD OF 00Z IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF
THE CWA...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AND FALL SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY MORNING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG EAST COAST SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
MAY CLIP THE PLATEAU COUNTIES. THUS WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TIMING AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. WAA INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
CWA. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
30S MAY BRING ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

THANKSGIVING CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S. HOWEVER...12Z
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SWITCH TO A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MAKES THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S AND EVEN 60S...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 250159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
759 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW 10KNTS
THROUGH TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 975MB SURFACE LOW NOW WELL OFF INTO CANADA
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING ACROSS THE MID STATE. WINDS HAVE
CORRESPONDINGLY BEGUN SUBSIDING WITH GUSTS NOW DOWN TO AROUND 25
KTS. THUS WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AT 21Z INSTEAD OF 00Z IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF
THE CWA...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AND FALL SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY MORNING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG EAST COAST SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
MAY CLIP THE PLATEAU COUNTIES. THUS WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TIMING AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. WAA INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
CWA. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
30S MAY BRING ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

THANKSGIVING CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S. HOWEVER...12Z
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SWITCH TO A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MAKES THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S AND EVEN 60S...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 242004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
204 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 975MB SURFACE LOW NOW WELL OFF INTO CANADA
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING ACROSS THE MID STATE. WINDS HAVE
CORRESPONDINGLY BEGUN SUBSIDING WITH GUSTS NOW DOWN TO AROUND 25
KTS. THUS WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AT 21Z INSTEAD OF 00Z IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF
THE CWA...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AND FALL SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY MORNING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG EAST COAST SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
MAY CLIP THE PLATEAU COUNTIES. THUS WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TIMING AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. WAA INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
CWA. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
30S MAY BRING ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

THANKSGIVING CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S. HOWEVER...12Z
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SWITCH TO A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MAKES THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S AND EVEN 60S...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      35  50  31  51 /   0  05  10  30
CLARKSVILLE    33  45  28  50 /   0  05  10  30
CROSSVILLE     35  47  33  46 /   0  05  20  20
COLUMBIA       34  51  30  52 /   0  05  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   35  50  32  53 /   0  05  10  20
WAVERLY        34  47  29  51 /   0  05  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-
023>033-056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER







000
FXUS64 KOHX 242004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
204 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 975MB SURFACE LOW NOW WELL OFF INTO CANADA
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING ACROSS THE MID STATE. WINDS HAVE
CORRESPONDINGLY BEGUN SUBSIDING WITH GUSTS NOW DOWN TO AROUND 25
KTS. THUS WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AT 21Z INSTEAD OF 00Z IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF
THE CWA...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AND FALL SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY MORNING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG EAST COAST SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
MAY CLIP THE PLATEAU COUNTIES. THUS WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TIMING AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. WAA INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
CWA. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
30S MAY BRING ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

THANKSGIVING CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S. HOWEVER...12Z
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SWITCH TO A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MAKES THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S AND EVEN 60S...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      35  50  31  51 /   0  05  10  30
CLARKSVILLE    33  45  28  50 /   0  05  10  30
CROSSVILLE     35  47  33  46 /   0  05  20  20
COLUMBIA       34  51  30  52 /   0  05  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   35  50  32  53 /   0  05  10  20
WAVERLY        34  47  29  51 /   0  05  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-
023>033-056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER






000
FXUS64 KOHX 241828
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL TRY AND WORK ALONG KENTUCKY BORDER NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
SEEMS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 241828
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL TRY AND WORK ALONG KENTUCKY BORDER NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
SEEMS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 241549
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
949 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED TO NEAR A
LEWISBURG TO JUST EAST OF LAFAYETTE LINE. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED...BUT STILL COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH NOON MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY THEN. HIGHS FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE SOON
REACHED...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
40S THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER OUR
REGION BETWEEN A 977MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS...CREATING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. SOME PEAK GUSTS NOTED ON AWOS/ASOS SITES SO
FAR HAVE BEEN 47 MPH AT SHELBYVILLE...44 MPH AT CLARKSVILLE...AND
40 MPH AT NASHVILLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND WIND
ADVISORY COULD BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY DEPENDENT ON
OBSERVATIONS.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, WILL
INCLUDE LLWS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE TAF FOR BNA AND
CKV. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS WELL, AND
WILL HANDLE THAT WITH VCSH REMARKS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS THROUGH HERE TODAY HAVE CAUGHT THE ATTENTION OF FOLKS TO OUR
NW.  BACK HOME...WE HAVE BEEN DRY-SLOTTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR MANY ACROSS THE MID-STATE TO SEE SOME STARS
TONIGHT.  AS THE COLD FRONT CREEPS CLOSER TO THE STATE AND WE REMAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LARGE, DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING.  TEMPERATURE READINGS HAVE RISEN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  ON TOP OF ALL OF
THAT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY SW WINDS.
WHILE WE WON`T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW.  SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL START TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z THIS
EVENING.

THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT HAS ENCOMPASSED JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...IT MIGHT JUST HAVE
ONE OR TWO OF SURPRISES IN STORE FOR SOME OF US. THE BIGGEST ONE
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS TROUGH OUT OF CANADA. WHILE THIS DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
MUCH OF A PRECIP MAKER...IT WILL CONTAIN SOME MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...WHICH COULD SPELL SOME SNOW FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
CONSTITUENCY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS EARLY AS 03Z THURSDAY...PLENTY DEEP FOR CRYSTAL
FORMATION ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE WHITE STUFF ON THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES OUT BY 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO
FLATTEN OUT CONSIDERABLY BY WEEK`S END...PUTTING US INTO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  WITH BOTH EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOWING A
SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST...WHICH WILL PUT US INTO A MODEST
RETURN FLOW...WE SHOULD WARM UP BY SATURDAY AGAIN.  OF COURSE...A
WARMUP LIKE THIS DOESN`T COME WITHOUT SOME EVENTUAL PRECIP...AND
THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF A WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN ON US FROM THE
NORTH.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS FRONT TO MAINTAIN LIQUID PRECIP...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORM SYSTEM TO CONTINUE PULLING EAST OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL
SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTW...PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

AS FOR CIGS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST BUT CIGS WILL
LIFT SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

55








000
FXUS64 KOHX 241549
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
949 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED TO NEAR A
LEWISBURG TO JUST EAST OF LAFAYETTE LINE. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED...BUT STILL COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH NOON MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY THEN. HIGHS FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE SOON
REACHED...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
40S THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER OUR
REGION BETWEEN A 977MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS...CREATING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. SOME PEAK GUSTS NOTED ON AWOS/ASOS SITES SO
FAR HAVE BEEN 47 MPH AT SHELBYVILLE...44 MPH AT CLARKSVILLE...AND
40 MPH AT NASHVILLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND WIND
ADVISORY COULD BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY DEPENDENT ON
OBSERVATIONS.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, WILL
INCLUDE LLWS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE TAF FOR BNA AND
CKV. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS WELL, AND
WILL HANDLE THAT WITH VCSH REMARKS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS THROUGH HERE TODAY HAVE CAUGHT THE ATTENTION OF FOLKS TO OUR
NW.  BACK HOME...WE HAVE BEEN DRY-SLOTTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR MANY ACROSS THE MID-STATE TO SEE SOME STARS
TONIGHT.  AS THE COLD FRONT CREEPS CLOSER TO THE STATE AND WE REMAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LARGE, DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING.  TEMPERATURE READINGS HAVE RISEN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  ON TOP OF ALL OF
THAT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY SW WINDS.
WHILE WE WON`T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW.  SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL START TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z THIS
EVENING.

THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT HAS ENCOMPASSED JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...IT MIGHT JUST HAVE
ONE OR TWO OF SURPRISES IN STORE FOR SOME OF US. THE BIGGEST ONE
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS TROUGH OUT OF CANADA. WHILE THIS DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
MUCH OF A PRECIP MAKER...IT WILL CONTAIN SOME MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...WHICH COULD SPELL SOME SNOW FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
CONSTITUENCY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS EARLY AS 03Z THURSDAY...PLENTY DEEP FOR CRYSTAL
FORMATION ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE WHITE STUFF ON THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES OUT BY 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO
FLATTEN OUT CONSIDERABLY BY WEEK`S END...PUTTING US INTO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  WITH BOTH EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOWING A
SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST...WHICH WILL PUT US INTO A MODEST
RETURN FLOW...WE SHOULD WARM UP BY SATURDAY AGAIN.  OF COURSE...A
WARMUP LIKE THIS DOESN`T COME WITHOUT SOME EVENTUAL PRECIP...AND
THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF A WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN ON US FROM THE
NORTH.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS FRONT TO MAINTAIN LIQUID PRECIP...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORM SYSTEM TO CONTINUE PULLING EAST OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL
SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTW...PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

AS FOR CIGS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST BUT CIGS WILL
LIFT SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

55







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities