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000
FXUS64 KOHX 011204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FLOATING AROUND THE MID-STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-40...BUT
MOST EVERYONE IS QUIET.  THESE STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF MIDDLE TN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN QUIET
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE AREN`T DONE WITH THE
RAIN BY ANY STRETCH.  ALL OF THE MID-STATE REMAINS MIRED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM.  WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING...BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR MANY TODAY AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON...IF WE CAN GET INITIATION...THERE DEFINITELY COULD BE A
COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT.  WITH THE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.  COVERAGE WON`T BE VERY
HIGH...PROBABLY IN THE 50 PERCENT NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING IN LIFE...ISN`T IT?  FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE START OF THE WORKWEEK SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE. UNFORTUNATELY...
THERE IS ACROSS-THE-BOARD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WON`T BE THE CASE
MONDAY.  AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID-
STATE LATE TONIGHT...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE REGION.  THE PROBLEM IS...WITHOUT A
LARGE SCALE PUSH...THE COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON MONDAY.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY.  WHILE DYNAMICS AREN`T BAD...INCLUDING SOME WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...THE MISSING PART WILL BE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...I THINK
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AND EVERYBODY CAN EXPECT AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO EXIT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THESE COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE
GOING TO THE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE IN A FAIRLY DRASTIC CHANGE IN OUR
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WORKWEEK.  WHILE EACH WILL PROVIDE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO FALL
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...IF NOT EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY COULD BE THE COOLEST OF THESE DAYS AS THE MOST INTENSE OF
THESE SHORTWAVES COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MANY MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70 DEGREES AND FRIDAY MORNING MIGHT EVEN WELCOME 40S BACK
INTO THE MID-STATE.  HOWEVER...FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY LOOK DRY AS WE
GET PINCHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE CLOSED LOWS...ONE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND THE OTHER NEAR THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...A WEAK, SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH FROPA NOT OCCURRING IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE DAY IS STARTING OFF WITH FOG
AND LOW STRATUS IN A FEW PLACES, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE,
LEAVING US VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WE MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ERODED POP`S CONSIDERABLY. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................UNGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FLOATING AROUND THE MID-STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-40...BUT
MOST EVERYONE IS QUIET.  THESE STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF MIDDLE TN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN QUIET
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE AREN`T DONE WITH THE
RAIN BY ANY STRETCH.  ALL OF THE MID-STATE REMAINS MIRED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM.  WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING...BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR MANY TODAY AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON...IF WE CAN GET INITIATION...THERE DEFINITELY COULD BE A
COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT.  WITH THE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.  COVERAGE WON`T BE VERY
HIGH...PROBABLY IN THE 50 PERCENT NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING IN LIFE...ISN`T IT?  FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE START OF THE WORKWEEK SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE. UNFORTUNATELY...
THERE IS ACROSS-THE-BOARD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WON`T BE THE CASE
MONDAY.  AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID-
STATE LATE TONIGHT...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE REGION.  THE PROBLEM IS...WITHOUT A
LARGE SCALE PUSH...THE COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON MONDAY.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY.  WHILE DYNAMICS AREN`T BAD...INCLUDING SOME WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...THE MISSING PART WILL BE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...I THINK
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AND EVERYBODY CAN EXPECT AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO EXIT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THESE COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE
GOING TO THE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE IN A FAIRLY DRASTIC CHANGE IN OUR
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WORKWEEK.  WHILE EACH WILL PROVIDE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO FALL
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...IF NOT EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY COULD BE THE COOLEST OF THESE DAYS AS THE MOST INTENSE OF
THESE SHORTWAVES COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MANY MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70 DEGREES AND FRIDAY MORNING MIGHT EVEN WELCOME 40S BACK
INTO THE MID-STATE.  HOWEVER...FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY LOOK DRY AS WE
GET PINCHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE CLOSED LOWS...ONE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND THE OTHER NEAR THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...A WEAK, SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH FROPA NOT OCCURRING IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE DAY IS STARTING OFF WITH FOG
AND LOW STRATUS IN A FEW PLACES, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE,
LEAVING US VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WE MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ERODED POP`S CONSIDERABLY. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................UNGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 010827
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FLOATING AROUND THE MID-STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-40...BUT
MOST EVERYONE IS QUIET.  THESE STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF MIDDLE TN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN QUIET
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE AREN`T DONE WITH THE
RAIN BY ANY STRETCH.  ALL OF THE MID-STATE REMAINS MIRED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM.  WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING...BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR MANY TODAY AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON...IF WE CAN GET INITIATION...THERE DEFINITELY COULD BE A
COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT.  WITH THE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.  COVERAGE WON`T BE VERY
HIGH...PROBABLY IN THE 50 PERCENT NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING IN LIFE...ISN`T IT?  FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE START OF THE WORKWEEK SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE. UNFORTUNATELY...
THERE IS ACROSS-THE-BOARD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WON`T BE THE CASE
MONDAY.  AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID-
STATE LATE TONIGHT...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE REGION.  THE PROBLEM IS...WITHOUT A
LARGE SCALE PUSH...THE COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON MONDAY.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY.  WHILE DYNAMICS AREN`T BAD...INCLUDING SOME WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...THE MISSING PART WILL BE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...I THINK
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AND EVERYBODY CAN EXPECT AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO EXIT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THESE COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE
GOING TO THE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE IN A FAIRLY DRASTIC CHANGE IN OUR
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WORKWEEK.  WHILE EACH WILL PROVIDE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO FALL
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...IF NOT EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY COULD BE THE COOLEST OF THESE DAYS AS THE MOST INTENSE OF
THESE SHORTWAVES COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MANY MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70 DEGREES AND FRIDAY MORNING MIGHT EVEN WELCOME 40S BACK
INTO THE MID-STATE.  HOWEVER...FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY LOOK DRY AS WE
GET PINCHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE CLOSED LOWS...ONE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND THE OTHER NEAR THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH BNA AND CSV EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CKV OVERNIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT TIMES...WITH VIS BOUNCING BETWEEN
IFR/LIFR. AFTER SUNRISE ALL THREE SITES WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING...AS MODELS INDICATE A
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      82  61  74  54  70 /  50  40  70  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  69  51  67 /  50  20  60  20  20
CROSSVILLE     76  60  73  54  66 /  50  50  70  60  30
COLUMBIA       80  61  73  53  69 /  50  40  70  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   81  62  74  54  70 /  40  40  70  30  10
WAVERLY        82  59  72  50  69 /  50  30  60  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST........UNGER
AVIATION........05





000
FXUS64 KOHX 010455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE OF RAIN HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT REMAINED THIS AFTERNOON WERE LIGHT...AND
WERE LOCATED OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. SKIES REMAINED
OVERCAST...AND THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID AFTERNOON READINGS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT DETAILS
ABOUT COVERAGE AND TIMING ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SPIN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES MOVE FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS ARE GENERATING POCKETS OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT
REALLY ANY SINGLE FORCING MECHANISM TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE
AND WHEN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAIL FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND WILL APPROACH MID TN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING ON
SUNDAY...AND FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SO WE CAN EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL
ALLOW GREATER HEATING...AND GREATER INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ANOTHER
WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA.

A TRANSITION PERIOD WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS A SHOT OF COOL
AIR COMES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. LATE WEEK LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
40S WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. AFTER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AGAIN...WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING EAST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
START GRADUALLY CLIMBING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH BNA AND CSV EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CKV OVERNIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT TIMES...WITH VIS BOUNCING BETWEEN
IFR/LIFR. AFTER SUNRISE ALL THREE SITES WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING...AS MODELS INDICATE A
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................99





000
FXUS64 KOHX 302340
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
640 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE OF RAIN HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT REMAINED THIS AFTERNOON WERE LIGHT...AND
WERE LOCATED OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. SKIES REMAINED
OVERCAST...AND THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID AFTERNOON READINGS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT DETAILS
ABOUT COVERAGE AND TIMING ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SPIN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES MOVE FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS ARE GENERATING POCKETS OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT
REALLY ANY SINGLE FORCING MECHANISM TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE
AND WHEN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAIL FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND WILL APPROACH MID TN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING ON
SUNDAY...AND FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SO WE CAN EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL
ALLOW GREATER HEATING...AND GREATER INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ANOTHER
WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA.

A TRANSITION PERIOD WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS A SHOT OF COOL
AIR COMES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. LATE WEEK LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
40S WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. AFTER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AGAIN...WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING EAST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
START GRADUALLY CLIMBING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CSV
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT CKV AND BNA. MVFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE
SITES...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING ANY STRONGER STORMS. THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................99





000
FXUS64 KOHX 302007
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
307 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A SHOWERY MORNING...INCLUDING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE OF RAIN HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT REMAINED THIS AFTERNOON WERE LIGHT...AND
WERE LOCATED OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. SKIES REMAINED
OVERCAST...AND THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID AFTERNOON READINGS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT DETAILS
ABOUT COVERAGE AND TIMING ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SPIN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES MOVE FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS ARE GENERATING POCKETS OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT
REALLY ANY SINGLE FORCING MECHANISM TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE
AND WHEN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAIL FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND WILL APPROACH MID TN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING ON
SUNDAY...AND FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SO WE CAN EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL
ALLOW GREATER HEATING...AND GREATER INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ANOTHER
WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA.

A TRANSITION PERIOD WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS A SHOT OF COOL
AIR COMES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. LATE WEEK LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
40S WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. AFTER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AGAIN...WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING EAST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
START GRADUALLY CLIMBING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN TO OVERCAST AROUND 7000 FEET AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY ACROSS MOST
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WITH CKV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT
EXPERIENCING A DIRECT SHOWER. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR
CATEGORY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT CSV
AND CKV.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  82  59  75  53 /  60  50  30  50  20
CLARKSVILLE    62  80  56  70  50 /  60  50  20  40  20
CROSSVILLE     61  77  60  73  54 /  60  60  40  50  30
COLUMBIA       63  80  59  73  53 /  60  50  20  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   64  80  60  75  54 /  60  40  20  50  30
WAVERLY        63  80  56  72  51 /  60  50  20  40  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........11
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 301851
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
151 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR WEAKENED TO
SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION AND
FURTHER REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 4PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AFTERNOON`S POPS AND DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN TO OVERCAST AROUND 7000 FEET AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY ACROSS MOST
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WITH CKV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT
EXPERIENCING A DIRECT SHOWER. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR
CATEGORY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT CSV
AND CKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........11
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 301705
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1205 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR WEAKENED TO
SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION AND
FURTHER REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 4PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AFTERNOON`S POPS AND DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FINALLY UPON THE MID-STATE BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS INTO THE REGION. WHILE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE EXPERIENCED...SHORT-LIVED MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SE GUST TO AROUND 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........11
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 301705
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1205 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING`S STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR WEAKENED TO
SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION AND
FURTHER REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 4PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AFTERNOON`S POPS AND DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FINALLY UPON THE MID-STATE BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS INTO THE REGION. WHILE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE EXPERIENCED...SHORT-LIVED MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SE GUST TO AROUND 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........11
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 301121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOWS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS WEEKEND. BANDS OF
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST...UP TO
1000 J/KG...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE EAST HALF THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH SPC UPDATE INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
STATE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES
UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU MID TN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD IN WHICH
THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS
A DEEP LOW OVER HUDSON BAY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT
CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AND ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DAYTIME
TEMPS EACH DAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST THE DEEP LOW TO CONTINUE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD LATE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN AVERAGE
WEATHER TO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD
BUT SHOULD BE RATHER CLOUDY GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
H5 FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FINALLY UPON THE MID-STATE BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS INTO THE REGION. WHILE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE EXPERIENCED...SHORT-LIVED MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SE GUST TO AROUND 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST........49
AVIATION........UNGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 301121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOWS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS WEEKEND. BANDS OF
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST...UP TO
1000 J/KG...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE EAST HALF THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH SPC UPDATE INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
STATE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES
UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU MID TN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD IN WHICH
THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS
A DEEP LOW OVER HUDSON BAY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT
CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AND ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DAYTIME
TEMPS EACH DAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST THE DEEP LOW TO CONTINUE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD LATE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN AVERAGE
WEATHER TO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD
BUT SHOULD BE RATHER CLOUDY GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
H5 FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FINALLY UPON THE MID-STATE BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS INTO THE REGION. WHILE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE EXPERIENCED...SHORT-LIVED MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SE GUST TO AROUND 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST........49
AVIATION........UNGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 300855
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
355 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOWS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS WEEKEND. BANDS OF
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. INSTABILTY EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST...UP TO
1000 J/KG...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE EAST HALF THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH SPC UPDATE INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
STATE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES
UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU MID TN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION PERIOD IN WHICH
THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS
A DEEP LOW OVER HUDSON BAY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT
CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AND ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DAYTIME
TEMPS EACH DAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST THE DEEP LOW TO CONTIUE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD LATE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN AVERAGE
WEATHER TO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD
BUT SHOULD BE RATHER CLOUDY GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
H5 FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LIGHT WINDS WITH VFR VIS/CLOUDS AT ALL THREE SITES WILL GIVE WAY
TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE 12Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY MVFR TO IFR VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  63  81  58  75 /  70  70  60  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    74  60  79  55  70 /  70  70  50  20  10
CROSSVILLE     74  61  76  58  73 /  70  70  70  50  20
COLUMBIA       76  63  79  58  74 /  50  70  70  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   78  64  79  58  75 /  50  70  70  20  20
WAVERLY        74  61  79  55  73 /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........49
LONG TERM..................49





000
FXUS64 KOHX 300449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNING
TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO 12Z. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REACH THE
NASHVILLE AREA AROUND 18Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LIGHT WINDS WITH VFR VIS/CLOUDS AT ALL THREE SITES WILL GIVE WAY
TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE 12Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY MVFR TO IFR VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................99





000
FXUS64 KOHX 300238
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
938 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNING
TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO 12Z. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REACH THE
NASHVILLE AREA AROUND 18Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
BNA AND CSV EARLY...WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND VFR VIS/CLOUDS
AT ALL THREE SITES FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED AS FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A ROUND
OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE MID-STATE POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
18Z.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................99





000
FXUS64 KOHX 292323
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS OF 60-100
PERCENT WILL BE INCLUDED WEST OF I 65...WITH THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE EAST OF I 65. SOME STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...INCLUDING WAYNE AND
LAWRENCE...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS NOTED. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...AND A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS TN. THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND FRONT WILL HELP GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MID TN.
AGAIN...WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
SATURDAY MORNING EVENT PLANNERS WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LOOK LIKE A QUARTER INCH OF LESS
IN THE SOUTH...AND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH HALF.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. MID
TN WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL...
BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND DEW
POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE MID STATE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OF 1500-2000 WITH
ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN
INTO MID TN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WHICH MEANS LOWS
AROUND THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT UNSETTLED...SO WE WILL KEEP
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE
LATE WEEK TREND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
BNA AND CSV EARLY...WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND VFR VIS/CLOUDS
AT ALL THREE SITES FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED AS FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A ROUND
OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE MID-STATE POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
18Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................99





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291941
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...FIRST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE MCS OVER WEST
TN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS OF 60-100
PERCENT WILL BE INCLUDED WEST OF I 65...WITH THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE EAST OF I 65. SOME STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...INCLUDING WAYNE AND
LAWRENCE...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS NOTED. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...AND A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS TN. THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND FRONT WILL HELP GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MID TN.
AGAIN...WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
SATURDAY MORNING EVENT PLANNERS WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LOOK LIKE A QUARTER INCH OF LESS
IN THE SOUTH...AND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH HALF.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. MID
TN WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL...
BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND DEW
POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE MID STATE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OF 1500-2000 WITH
ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN
INTO MID TN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WHICH MEANS LOWS
AROUND THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT UNSETTLED...SO WE WILL KEEP
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE
LATE WEEK TREND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MCS OVER WEST TN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH -SHRA
EXPECTED TO REACH CKV/BNA AROUND 21-22Z AND CSV AROUND 00Z. -SHRA
SHOULD LAST A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING. ADDITIONAL -SHRA/VCTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID STATE. VFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  82  64  80  58 /  70  70  60  60  20
CLARKSVILLE    60  78  62  79  55 /  80  80  60  50  20
CROSSVILLE     60  77  63  75  59 /  40  70  60  70  50
COLUMBIA       61  81  64  79  58 /  70  50  60  70  20
LAWRENCEBURG   61  81  64  79  59 /  60  50  60  70  20
WAVERLY        60  81  61  80  55 /  80  70  60  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291941
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...FIRST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE MCS OVER WEST
TN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS OF 60-100
PERCENT WILL BE INCLUDED WEST OF I 65...WITH THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE EAST OF I 65. SOME STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...INCLUDING WAYNE AND
LAWRENCE...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS NOTED. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...AND A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS TN. THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND FRONT WILL HELP GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MID TN.
AGAIN...WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
SATURDAY MORNING EVENT PLANNERS WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LOOK LIKE A QUARTER INCH OF LESS
IN THE SOUTH...AND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH HALF.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. MID
TN WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL...
BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND DEW
POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE MID STATE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OF 1500-2000 WITH
ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN
INTO MID TN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WHICH MEANS LOWS
AROUND THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT UNSETTLED...SO WE WILL KEEP
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE
LATE WEEK TREND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MCS OVER WEST TN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH -SHRA
EXPECTED TO REACH CKV/BNA AROUND 21-22Z AND CSV AROUND 00Z. -SHRA
SHOULD LAST A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING. ADDITIONAL -SHRA/VCTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID STATE. VFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  82  64  80  58 /  70  70  60  60  20
CLARKSVILLE    60  78  62  79  55 /  80  80  60  50  20
CROSSVILLE     60  77  63  75  59 /  40  70  60  70  50
COLUMBIA       61  81  64  79  58 /  70  50  60  70  20
LAWRENCEBURG   61  81  64  79  59 /  60  50  60  70  20
WAVERLY        60  81  61  80  55 /  80  70  60  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291831
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
131 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY PERRY...WAYNE AND LAWRENCE...LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A HUGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH MS AND SOUTHWEST TN
...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING AROUND 3 PM. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

OTHERWISE...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ARKANSAS STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE. THE SUN WILL BE
VISIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I 65. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY A LITTLE WARMER EAST
HALF...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A
WARM FRONT BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE
PARENT LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE CORN BELT. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO
WE CAN EXPECT A WET SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF MID TN...WITH MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT ALSO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL THE
WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE COOLER...BUT NEAR
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES. LINGERING MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP INTERMITTENT SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MCS OVER WEST TN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH -SHRA
EXPECTED TO REACH CKV/BNA AROUND 21-22Z AND CSV AROUND 00Z. -SHRA
SHOULD LAST A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING. ADDITIONAL -SHRA/VCTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID STATE. VFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291553
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1053 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY PERRY...WAYNE AND LAWRENCE...LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A HUGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH MS AND SOUTHWEST TN
...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING AROUND 3 PM. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

OTHERWISE...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ARKANSAS STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE. THE SUN WILL BE
VISIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I 65. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY A LITTLE WARMER EAST
HALF...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A
WARM FRONT BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE
PARENT LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE CORN BELT. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO
WE CAN EXPECT A WET SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF MID TN...WITH MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT ALSO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL THE
WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE COOLER...BUT NEAR
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES. LINGERING MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP INTERMITTENT SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE HOWEVER...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WILL BRING THE CLOUD DECK DOWN A BIT...VFR CIGS SHOULD
PERSIST AS THE HEAVIER RAINS REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR MID-STATE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT.

MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THESE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORIES TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY FOR KBNA/KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291553
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1053 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY PERRY...WAYNE AND LAWRENCE...LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A HUGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH MS AND SOUTHWEST TN
...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING AROUND 3 PM. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

OTHERWISE...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ARKANSAS STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE. THE SUN WILL BE
VISIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I 65. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY A LITTLE WARMER EAST
HALF...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A
WARM FRONT BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE
PARENT LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE CORN BELT. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO
WE CAN EXPECT A WET SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF MID TN...WITH MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT ALSO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL THE
WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY BRINGING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE COOLER...BUT NEAR
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES. LINGERING MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP INTERMITTENT SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE HOWEVER...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WILL BRING THE CLOUD DECK DOWN A BIT...VFR CIGS SHOULD
PERSIST AS THE HEAVIER RAINS REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR MID-STATE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT.

MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THESE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORIES TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY FOR KBNA/KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS RADIATION COOLING HAS
DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE 50`S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT GOOD WARMING
TODAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. BY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A WARM FRONT
NOSES ITS WAY TOWARD THE MID STATE. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS CROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT DON`T
EXPECT THEM TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER
FLOW WILL REMAIN ANTI-CYCLONIC. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
PREDOMINANT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE PARENT LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE CORN BELT.
THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE CAN EXPECT
A WET SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY AND POP`S STARTING TO TAPER OFF
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ISN`T A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM, CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND, BUT SUNDAY`S FROPA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OUR STRONGEST
STORMS, AND EVEN THEN SPC ONLY HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK.

THE FORECAST GETS MESSY STARTING ON MONDAY. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP SMALL POP`S IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SO WE WON`T SEE TEMPS IN THE
80`S FOR A WHILE AFTER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE HOWEVER...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WILL BRING THE CLOUD DECK DOWN A BIT...VFR CIGS SHOULD
PERSIST AS THE HEAVIER RAINS REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR MID-STATE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT.

MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THESE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORIES TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY FOR KBNA/KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST........08
AVIATION........UNGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS RADIATION COOLING HAS
DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE 50`S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT GOOD WARMING
TODAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. BY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A WARM FRONT
NOSES ITS WAY TOWARD THE MID STATE. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS CROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT DON`T
EXPECT THEM TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER
FLOW WILL REMAIN ANTI-CYCLONIC. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
PREDOMINANT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE PARENT LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE CORN BELT.
THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE CAN EXPECT
A WET SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY AND POP`S STARTING TO TAPER OFF
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ISN`T A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM, CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND, BUT SUNDAY`S FROPA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OUR STRONGEST
STORMS, AND EVEN THEN SPC ONLY HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK.

THE FORECAST GETS MESSY STARTING ON MONDAY. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP SMALL POP`S IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SO WE WON`T SEE TEMPS IN THE
80`S FOR A WHILE AFTER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
AFTER 15Z. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
BUT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      82  61  81  64  79 /  10  60  60  60  70
CLARKSVILLE    76  60  77  62  76 /  20  70  60  70  70
CROSSVILLE     78  60  76  63  73 /  10  30  70  70  70
COLUMBIA       80  61  79  63  77 /  10  60  40  70  70
LAWRENCEBURG   81  61  80  63  77 /  10  50  50  60  70
WAVERLY        80  60  80  62  78 /  30  70  60  70  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................08





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS RADIATION COOLING HAS
DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE 50`S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT GOOD WARMING
TODAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. BY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A WARM FRONT
NOSES ITS WAY TOWARD THE MID STATE. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS CROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT DON`T
EXPECT THEM TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER
FLOW WILL REMAIN ANTI-CYCLONIC. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
PREDOMINANT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE PARENT LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE CORN BELT.
THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE CAN EXPECT
A WET SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY AND POP`S STARTING TO TAPER OFF
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ISN`T A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM, CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND, BUT SUNDAY`S FROPA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OUR STRONGEST
STORMS, AND EVEN THEN SPC ONLY HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK.

THE FORECAST GETS MESSY STARTING ON MONDAY. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP SMALL POP`S IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SO WE WON`T SEE TEMPS IN THE
80`S FOR A WHILE AFTER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
AFTER 15Z. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
BUT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      82  61  81  64  79 /  10  60  60  60  70
CLARKSVILLE    76  60  77  62  76 /  20  70  60  70  70
CROSSVILLE     78  60  76  63  73 /  10  30  70  70  70
COLUMBIA       80  61  79  63  77 /  10  60  40  70  70
LAWRENCEBURG   81  61  80  63  77 /  10  50  50  60  70
WAVERLY        80  60  80  62  78 /  30  70  60  70  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................08





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290450
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A RATHER DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP QUITE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MID STATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SATURDAY. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
AFTER 15Z. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
BUT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290450
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A RATHER DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP QUITE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MID STATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SATURDAY. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
AFTER 15Z. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
BUT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
837 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A RATHER DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP QUITE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MID STATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SATURDAY. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY AND LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER 18Z.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
837 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A RATHER DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP QUITE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MID STATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SATURDAY. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY AND LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER 18Z.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 282325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE MID STATE
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
QUANDARIES ABOUND ON THE ACTUAL SPECIFIC COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE SHWRS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE ON SAT MORNING FOR THE MULTITUDE OF
OUTDOOR EVENTS THAT ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE AREA THAT MORNING. FIRST
OFF...FOR ANY LINGERING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING NOW THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...BROKE OUT A LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN THE END TO ANY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT WITH MOCLR SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...
RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MID STATE W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRI...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY JUST ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THIS ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE...A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGED IS NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON FRI EXPECTED TO BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON...
RANGING FROM UPPER 70S N TO LOWER 80S S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...QUANDARIES ABOUND ON ACTUAL RAINFALL COVERAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES SRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY SUNRISE ON SAT MORNING...
AND THEN PUSHES NWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS ON SAT...
INTO SAT NIGHT...AND INTO SUN. SO THE ABOVE MENTIONED SAT MORNING TIME
PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE WHEN IT COMES TO THIS EVOLVING WX
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS WITH ISO TSTMS FRI NIGHT...
AND A SWATH OF NUMEROUS MODERATE SHWRS WITH SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT
MORNING. SOME MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE DRIER SOLUTION THAN THIS
CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE WETTER SOLUTION THAN
CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS ALONG FORECASTERS INTERPRETATION
OF EVOLVING WX PATTERN NEEDED AS THIS TIME APPROACHES. BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN...WITH SFC FRONT PUSHING FINALLY THRU
THE MID ON SUN...ALONG WITH SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...AND THOSE
PESKY EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WHICH CAN ADD SOME UNCERTAINTIES
TO STRENGTH OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO COOL...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES.

ESPECIALLY IF YOU CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
LINGERING MAINLY ISO LIGHT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST THRU TUE OF NEXT
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL FINALLY BUILD INTO THE
MID STATE REGION BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...AS TEMPS FINALLY WILL BE HOVERING AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY AND LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER 18Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 282101
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE MID STATE
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
QUANDARIES ABOUND ON THE ACTUAL SPECIFIC COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE SHWRS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE ON SAT MORNING FOR THE MULTITUDE OF
OUTDOOR EVENTS THAT ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE AREA THAT MORNING. FIRST
OFF...FOR ANY LINGERING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING NOW THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...BROKE OUT A LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN THE END TO ANY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT WITH MOCLR SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...
RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MID STATE W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRI...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY JUST ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THIS ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE...A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGED IS NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON FRI EXPECTED TO BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON...
RANGING FROM UPPER 70S N TO LOWER 80S S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...QUANDARIES ABOUND ON ACTUAL RAINFALL COVERAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES SRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY SUNRISE ON SAT MORNING...
AND THEN PUSHES NWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS ON SAT...
INTO SAT NIGHT...AND INTO SUN. SO THE ABOVE MENTIONED SAT MORNING TIME
PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE WHEN IT COMES TO THIS EVOLVING WX
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS WITH ISO TSTMS FRI NIGHT...
AND A SWATH OF NUMEROUS MODERATE SHWRS WITH SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT
MORNING. SOME MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE DRIER SOLUTION THAN THIS
CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE WETTER SOLUTION THAN
CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS ALONG FORECASTERS INTERPRETATION
OF EVOLVING WX PATTERN NEEDED AS THIS TIME APPROACHES. BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN...WITH SFC FRONT PUSHING FINALLY THRU
THE MID ON SUN...ALONG WITH SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...AND THOSE
PESKY EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WHICH CAN ADD SOME UNCERTAINTIES
TO STRENGTH OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO COOL...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES.

ESPECIALLY IF YOU CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
LINGERING MAINLY ISO LIGHT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST THRU TUE OF NEXT
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL FINALLY BUILD INTO THE
MID STATE REGION BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...AS TEMPS FINALLY WILL BE HOVERING AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PREVAIL OVER THIS TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS MIXED ENOUGH THIS MORNING FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH CKV AND WILL MOVE THROUGH BNA
AND CSV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. SKC WILL PREVAIL AFTER FROPA AS WELL. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT CSV BUT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TONIGHT FOR FOG NOT TO BE A CONCERN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      57  82  62  80  62 /   0  10  40  60  70
CLARKSVILLE    55  77  60  77  61 /   0  10  60  60  70
CROSSVILLE     54  79  61  75  62 /   0  10  20  60  70
COLUMBIA       56  81  61  78  62 /   0  10  40  40  70
LAWRENCEBURG   56  82  62  79  62 /   0  10  40  40  70
WAVERLY        55  80  60  79  61 /   0  20  60  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........10/REAGAN
LONG TERM..................31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281726
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IN WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE TN RIVER. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT
BEHIND IT. AIR WILL BE DRIER AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE SCATTERED AT
MOST BEHIND THE FRONT. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
WEST TENNESSEE MOVING THIS WAY. EAST OF THE FRONT HRRR SHOWING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF I-65 WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PREVAIL OVER THIS TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS MIXED ENOUGH THIS MORNING FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH CKV AND WILL MOVE THROUGH BNA
AND CSV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. SKC WILL PREVAIL AFTER FROPA AS WELL. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT CSV BUT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TONIGHT FOR FOG NOT TO BE A CONCERN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........10/REAGAN
LONG TERM..................31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281516
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IN WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE TN RIVER. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT
BEHIND IT. AIR WILL BE DRIER AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE SCATTERED AT
MOST BEHIND THE FRONT. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
WEST TENNESSEE MOVING THIS WAY. EAST OF THE FRONT HRRR SHOWING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF I-65 WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DISAPPEARED AND ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIGHT FOG WILL BE USHERED OUT AS A FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 18Z AT CKV AND BNA...AND BY 00Z AT CSV. ALL
SITES COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
SKIES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........10/REAGAN
LONG TERM..................31





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