Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KOHX 170011 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL/LOCALLY DENSE. AREAS OF CLOUD COVERAGE
BREAKAGE NOTED ACROSS MID STATE...BUT WITH STILL SOME SHORT RANGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN PATCHY FOG/LOCALLY DENSE FORMATION ACROSS MID STATE
THRU 17/14Z...MENTIONED MVFR FOG BNA/CKV AFTER 17/05Z. WITH SLIGHTEST MODEL
DIFFERENCES NOTED CSV ALONG WITH VFR FOG FORMATION OCCURRING AND BEST POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION/LOCALLY DENSE...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AS SOON AS 17/03Z...WITH
LIFR CEILINGS 17/08Z-17/14Z. WITH SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES PERSISTING BUT WITH
AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI 17/18Z-17/24Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS BEGUN ERODING THE
CLOUDS NORTH OF I-40 INTO KY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS CLEARS OUT THE
CLOUD COVER VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO
TOMORROW. THUS UNCERTAIN IF CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...AND MAY FILL BACK IN OVER SOME AREAS. WILL GO MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD FOR NOW AND SHOW GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. GUIDANCE ALSO HITTING FOG POTENTIAL PRETTY HARD TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU...AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
TO GRIDS AND ZONES WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES.

12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVER WESTERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ALOFT...THUS
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
MEX MOS APPEARS TOO WARM AND USED THE RAW BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT...BUT ANOTHER INTENSE JET MAX WILL CARVE
OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODELS ARE SLOWER BUT CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BROAD-BRUSH
LOW POPS UNTIL CONSENSUS EMERGES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 170011 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL/LOCALLY DENSE. AREAS OF CLOUD COVERAGE
BREAKAGE NOTED ACROSS MID STATE...BUT WITH STILL SOME SHORT RANGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN PATCHY FOG/LOCALLY DENSE FORMATION ACROSS MID STATE
THRU 17/14Z...MENTIONED MVFR FOG BNA/CKV AFTER 17/05Z. WITH SLIGHTEST MODEL
DIFFERENCES NOTED CSV ALONG WITH VFR FOG FORMATION OCCURRING AND BEST POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION/LOCALLY DENSE...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AS SOON AS 17/03Z...WITH
LIFR CEILINGS 17/08Z-17/14Z. WITH SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES PERSISTING BUT WITH
AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI 17/18Z-17/24Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS BEGUN ERODING THE
CLOUDS NORTH OF I-40 INTO KY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS CLEARS OUT THE
CLOUD COVER VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO
TOMORROW. THUS UNCERTAIN IF CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...AND MAY FILL BACK IN OVER SOME AREAS. WILL GO MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD FOR NOW AND SHOW GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. GUIDANCE ALSO HITTING FOG POTENTIAL PRETTY HARD TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU...AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
TO GRIDS AND ZONES WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES.

12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVER WESTERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ALOFT...THUS
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
MEX MOS APPEARS TOO WARM AND USED THE RAW BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT...BUT ANOTHER INTENSE JET MAX WILL CARVE
OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODELS ARE SLOWER BUT CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BROAD-BRUSH
LOW POPS UNTIL CONSENSUS EMERGES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 162315
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL LEANING TOWARD THINNING CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CURRENT LOW CIGS IN THE CSV AREA HAVE LED TO
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 1-2 SM RANGE. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 3-5F...WILL OPT
TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS WELL...ACROSS THE
PLATEAU AREA. MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FOG FORMATION
TOWARD 12Z.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPS
ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS BEGUN ERODING THE
CLOUDS NORTH OF I-40 INTO KY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS CLEARS OUT THE
CLOUD COVER VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO
TOMORROW. THUS UNCERTAIN IF CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...AND MAY FILL BACK IN OVER SOME AREAS. WILL GO MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD FOR NOW AND SHOW GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. GUIDANCE ALSO HITTING FOG POTENTIAL PRETTY HARD TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU...AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
TO GRIDS AND ZONES WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES.

12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVER WESTERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ALOFT...THUS
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
MEX MOS APPEARS TOO WARM AND USED THE RAW BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT...BUT ANOTHER INTENSE JET MAX WILL CARVE
OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODELS ARE SLOWER BUT CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BROADBRUSH
LOW POPS UNTIL CONSENSUS EMERGES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  76  57  77 /  05  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    53  75  56  75 /  05  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     54  73  53  73 /  05  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       55  77  57  77 /  05  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   56  77  58  78 /  05  10  05  05
WAVERLY        53  76  57  77 /  05  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 162315
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL LEANING TOWARD THINNING CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CURRENT LOW CIGS IN THE CSV AREA HAVE LED TO
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 1-2 SM RANGE. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 3-5F...WILL OPT
TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS WELL...ACROSS THE
PLATEAU AREA. MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FOG FORMATION
TOWARD 12Z.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPS
ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS BEGUN ERODING THE
CLOUDS NORTH OF I-40 INTO KY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS CLEARS OUT THE
CLOUD COVER VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO
TOMORROW. THUS UNCERTAIN IF CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...AND MAY FILL BACK IN OVER SOME AREAS. WILL GO MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD FOR NOW AND SHOW GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. GUIDANCE ALSO HITTING FOG POTENTIAL PRETTY HARD TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU...AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
TO GRIDS AND ZONES WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES.

12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVER WESTERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ALOFT...THUS
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
MEX MOS APPEARS TOO WARM AND USED THE RAW BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT...BUT ANOTHER INTENSE JET MAX WILL CARVE
OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODELS ARE SLOWER BUT CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BROADBRUSH
LOW POPS UNTIL CONSENSUS EMERGES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  76  57  77 /  05  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    53  75  56  75 /  05  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     54  73  53  73 /  05  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       55  77  57  77 /  05  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   56  77  58  78 /  05  10  05  05
WAVERLY        53  76  57  77 /  05  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 161928
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
228 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS BEGUN ERODING THE
CLOUDS NORTH OF I-40 INTO KY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS CLEARS OUT THE
CLOUD COVER VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO
TOMORROW. THUS UNCERTAIN IF CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...AND MAY FILL BACK IN OVER SOME AREAS. WILL GO MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD FOR NOW AND SHOW GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. GUIDANCE ALSO HITTING FOG POTENTIAL PRETTY HARD TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU...AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
TO GRIDS AND ZONES WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES.

12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVER WESTERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ALOFT...THUS
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
MEX MOS APPEARS TOO WARM AND USED THE RAW BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT...BUT ANOTHER INTENSE JET MAX WILL CARVE
OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODELS ARE SLOWER BUT CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BROADBRUSH
LOW POPS UNTIL CONSENSUS EMERGES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  76  57  77 /  05  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    53  75  56  75 /  05  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     54  73  53  73 /  05  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       55  77  57  77 /  05  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   56  77  58  78 /  05  10  05  05
WAVERLY        53  76  57  77 /  05  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER







000
FXUS64 KOHX 161928
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
228 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS BEGUN ERODING THE
CLOUDS NORTH OF I-40 INTO KY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS CLEARS OUT THE
CLOUD COVER VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO
TOMORROW. THUS UNCERTAIN IF CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...AND MAY FILL BACK IN OVER SOME AREAS. WILL GO MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD FOR NOW AND SHOW GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. GUIDANCE ALSO HITTING FOG POTENTIAL PRETTY HARD TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU...AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
TO GRIDS AND ZONES WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES.

12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVER WESTERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ALOFT...THUS
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
MEX MOS APPEARS TOO WARM AND USED THE RAW BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT...BUT ANOTHER INTENSE JET MAX WILL CARVE
OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODELS ARE SLOWER BUT CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO BROADBRUSH
LOW POPS UNTIL CONSENSUS EMERGES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      56  76  57  77 /  05  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    53  75  56  75 /  05  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     54  73  53  73 /  05  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       55  77  57  77 /  05  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   56  77  58  78 /  05  10  05  05
WAVERLY        53  76  57  77 /  05  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER






000
FXUS64 KOHX 161838
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
138 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
LOOKS LIKE MVFR DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT
I AM SEEING HOLES IN VISIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE WEST HALF
OF KENTUCKY...AND THIS IS WORKING SOUTHWARD. FOG TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE ALL SITES WITH
LIFR AT CROSSVILLE LIKELY 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS BY
14Z-15Z ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
ON WEDENSDAY.

.SYNOPTIS...1023 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 161308
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
808 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF CKV WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH LIGHTNING NOTED SE OF CKV.
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TODAY.
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A FEW -SHRA WILL OCCUR...BUT COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
NORTH WINDS AROUND 6KT BRING DRIER AIR. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. BNA IS LIKELY TO STAY VFR...WITH CKV DOWN TO MVFR.
AS USUAL...CSV COULD GO SUDDENLY TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE FRONT THAT WAS
PROGGED TO BE THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS TIME TONIGHT...IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SW INTO ARKANSAS.  WEAK LIFT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE HELPING TO DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE DAY TODAY...AND AS WE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...PICK UP
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY.  RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY TO
BARELY REGISTER IN ANYONE`S RAIN GAUGE.  A FEW SPOTS MIGHT SEE UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH AND ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
MIGHT HEAR A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT IN WHOLE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.  IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS
DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND
ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE STATE.  FOR NOW...WHILE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
SOMETHING OVER MISSOURI BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SHOULD EFFECT US ACROSS THE MID-STATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.   MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SLIGHTLY REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO
HOME.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...AND WHILE I`M NOT READY TO THROW MY HAT IN THAT RING...A
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE COULD MEAN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  WILL INCREASE POPS IN THESE TIME FRAMES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE LOW IN THE EURO...WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY HWO MENTION AND JUST MONITOR ATTM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE ARE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.  DUE TO THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS PERTAINING TO THE LATE-WEEKEND FRONT...THIS LENDS SOME
CREDIBILITY TO THEIR AGREEMENT OF USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 161308
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
808 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF CKV WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH LIGHTNING NOTED SE OF CKV.
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TODAY.
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A FEW -SHRA WILL OCCUR...BUT COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
NORTH WINDS AROUND 6KT BRING DRIER AIR. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. BNA IS LIKELY TO STAY VFR...WITH CKV DOWN TO MVFR.
AS USUAL...CSV COULD GO SUDDENLY TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE FRONT THAT WAS
PROGGED TO BE THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS TIME TONIGHT...IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SW INTO ARKANSAS.  WEAK LIFT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE HELPING TO DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE DAY TODAY...AND AS WE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...PICK UP
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY.  RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY TO
BARELY REGISTER IN ANYONE`S RAIN GAUGE.  A FEW SPOTS MIGHT SEE UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH AND ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
MIGHT HEAR A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT IN WHOLE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.  IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS
DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND
ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE STATE.  FOR NOW...WHILE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
SOMETHING OVER MISSOURI BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SHOULD EFFECT US ACROSS THE MID-STATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.   MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SLIGHTLY REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO
HOME.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...AND WHILE I`M NOT READY TO THROW MY HAT IN THAT RING...A
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE COULD MEAN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  WILL INCREASE POPS IN THESE TIME FRAMES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE LOW IN THE EURO...WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY HWO MENTION AND JUST MONITOR ATTM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE ARE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.  DUE TO THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS PERTAINING TO THE LATE-WEEKEND FRONT...THIS LENDS SOME
CREDIBILITY TO THEIR AGREEMENT OF USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55








000
FXUS64 KOHX 161120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A FEW -SHRA WILL OCCUR...BUT COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
NORTH WINDS AROUND 6KT BRING DRIER AIR. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. BNA IS LIKELY TO STAY VFR...WITH CKV DOWN TO MVFR.
AS USUAL...CSV COULD GO SUDDENLY TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE FRONT THAT WAS
PROGGED TO BE THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS TIME TONIGHT...IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SW INTO ARKANSAS.  WEAK LIFT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE HELPING TO DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE DAY TODAY...AND AS WE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...PICK UP
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY.  RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY TO
BARELY REGISTER IN ANYONE`S RAIN GAUGE.  A FEW SPOTS MIGHT SEE UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH AND ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
MIGHT HEAR A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT IN WHOLE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.  IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS
DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND
ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE STATE.  FOR NOW...WHILE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
SOMETHING OVER MISSOURI BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SHOULD EFFECT US ACROSS THE MID-STATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.   MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SLIGHTLY REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO
HOME.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...AND WHILE I`M NOT READY TO THROW MY HAT IN THAT RING...A
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE COULD MEAN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  WILL INCREASE POPS IN THESE TIME FRAMES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE LOW IN THE EURO...WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY HWO MENTION AND JUST MONITOR ATTM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE ARE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.  DUE TO THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS PERTAINING TO THE LATE-WEEKEND FRONT...THIS LENDS SOME
CREDIBILITY TO THEIR AGREEMENT OF USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 161120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A FEW -SHRA WILL OCCUR...BUT COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
NORTH WINDS AROUND 6KT BRING DRIER AIR. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. BNA IS LIKELY TO STAY VFR...WITH CKV DOWN TO MVFR.
AS USUAL...CSV COULD GO SUDDENLY TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE FRONT THAT WAS
PROGGED TO BE THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS TIME TONIGHT...IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SW INTO ARKANSAS.  WEAK LIFT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE HELPING TO DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE DAY TODAY...AND AS WE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...PICK UP
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY.  RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY TO
BARELY REGISTER IN ANYONE`S RAIN GAUGE.  A FEW SPOTS MIGHT SEE UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH AND ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
MIGHT HEAR A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT IN WHOLE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.  IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS
DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND
ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE STATE.  FOR NOW...WHILE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
SOMETHING OVER MISSOURI BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SHOULD EFFECT US ACROSS THE MID-STATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.   MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SLIGHTLY REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO
HOME.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...AND WHILE I`M NOT READY TO THROW MY HAT IN THAT RING...A
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE COULD MEAN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  WILL INCREASE POPS IN THESE TIME FRAMES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE LOW IN THE EURO...WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY HWO MENTION AND JUST MONITOR ATTM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE ARE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.  DUE TO THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS PERTAINING TO THE LATE-WEEKEND FRONT...THIS LENDS SOME
CREDIBILITY TO THEIR AGREEMENT OF USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 160842
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
342 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE FRONT THAT WAS
PROGGED TO BE THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS TIME TONIGHT...IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SW INTO ARKANSAS.  WEAK LIFT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE HELPING TO DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE DAY TODAY...AND AS WE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...PICK UP
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY.  RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY TO
BARELY REGISTER IN ANYONE`S RAIN GAUGE.  A FEW SPOTS MIGHT SEE UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH AND ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
MIGHT HEAR A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT IN WHOLE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.  IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS
DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND
ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE STATE.  FOR NOW...WHILE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
SOMETHING OVER MISSOURI BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SHOULD EFFECT US ACROSS THE MID-STATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.   MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SLIGHTLY REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO
HOME.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...AND WHILE I`M NOT READY TO THROW MY HAT IN THAT RING...A
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE COULD MEAN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  WILL INCREASE POPS IN THESE TIME FRAMES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE LOW IN THE EURO...WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY HWO MENTION AND JUST MONITOR ATTM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE ARE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.  DUE TO THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS PERTAINING TO THE LATE-WEEKEND FRONT...THIS LENDS SOME
CREDIBILITY TO THEIR AGREEMENT OF USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND VCSH FOR THE TAF AREAS AROUND 12Z.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR THE
BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT AS WE APPROACH 00Z AND BEYOND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      77  55  78  55 /  20  10  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    74  53  76  55 /  20  05  10  10
CROSSVILLE     76  54  75  52 /  20  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       78  53  78  56 /  20  10  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   79  53  78  56 /  20  10  05  10
WAVERLY        75  52  76  56 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 160842
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
342 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE FRONT THAT WAS
PROGGED TO BE THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS TIME TONIGHT...IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SW INTO ARKANSAS.  WEAK LIFT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE HELPING TO DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE DAY TODAY...AND AS WE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...PICK UP
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY.  RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY TO
BARELY REGISTER IN ANYONE`S RAIN GAUGE.  A FEW SPOTS MIGHT SEE UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH AND ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
MIGHT HEAR A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT IN WHOLE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.  IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS
DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND
ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE STATE.  FOR NOW...WHILE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
SOMETHING OVER MISSOURI BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SHOULD EFFECT US ACROSS THE MID-STATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.   MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SLIGHTLY REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO
HOME.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...AND WHILE I`M NOT READY TO THROW MY HAT IN THAT RING...A
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE COULD MEAN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  WILL INCREASE POPS IN THESE TIME FRAMES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE LOW IN THE EURO...WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY HWO MENTION AND JUST MONITOR ATTM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE ARE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.  DUE TO THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS PERTAINING TO THE LATE-WEEKEND FRONT...THIS LENDS SOME
CREDIBILITY TO THEIR AGREEMENT OF USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND VCSH FOR THE TAF AREAS AROUND 12Z.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR THE
BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT AS WE APPROACH 00Z AND BEYOND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      77  55  78  55 /  20  10  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    74  53  76  55 /  20  05  10  10
CROSSVILLE     76  54  75  52 /  20  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       78  53  78  56 /  20  10  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   79  53  78  56 /  20  10  05  10
WAVERLY        75  52  76  56 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 160444
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND VCSH FOR THE TAF AREAS AROUND
12Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR
THE BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT AS WE APPROACH 00Z AND BEYOND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL NORTH OF THE
MID-STATE THIS EVENING...BUT THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARD 12Z. MODERATE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PROCESS AND THAT COULD
SPELL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS SEEMINGLY IN LINE AT
THIS POINT AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE CSV AND BNA AREAS AROUND 12Z.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR THE
BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BACK DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT MID-DAY. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THIS IS DUE TO TWO
THINGS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MOST OF ALL THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER 10K FEET OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO
LOWERING OF THE CEILING AS FRONT TO OUR NORTH WORKS DOWN INTO THE
MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT WILL GO WITH
A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN THROUGH FRONT GETS SOUTH
OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY TRAILING UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL WORK
DOWN THIS WAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW SO AM KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. A 1020 MBAR CANADIAN HIGH TAKES OVER MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY WHEN
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AS ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER QUICKLY BUCKLES CARVING OUT A RATHER SHARP TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

CLIMATE...THERE ARE NO 90 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE LAST TIME NASHVILLE HIT 90 DEGREES WAS
BACK ON SEPTEMBER 9TH. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 90 DEGREE TEMP
IN NASHVILLE IS SEPTEMBER 14TH.

THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMP IN A CALENDAR YEAR IS
MAY 28TH.

THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS OCCURRED IS APRIL 9TH 2011.
THE LATEST THAT NASHVILLE HAS RECORDED 90 DEGREE TEMP WAS ON OCTOBER
10TH 1980.

I FOUND IT OF INTEREST THAT BACK IN 1893...NASHVILLE DID NOT REACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK UNTIL JULY 5TH (LATEST EVER). THIS IS VERY LATE
INTO THE SEASON FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY TO OCCUR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 160444
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND VCSH FOR THE TAF AREAS AROUND
12Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR
THE BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT AS WE APPROACH 00Z AND BEYOND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL NORTH OF THE
MID-STATE THIS EVENING...BUT THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARD 12Z. MODERATE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PROCESS AND THAT COULD
SPELL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS SEEMINGLY IN LINE AT
THIS POINT AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE CSV AND BNA AREAS AROUND 12Z.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR THE
BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BACK DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT MID-DAY. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THIS IS DUE TO TWO
THINGS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MOST OF ALL THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER 10K FEET OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO
LOWERING OF THE CEILING AS FRONT TO OUR NORTH WORKS DOWN INTO THE
MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT WILL GO WITH
A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN THROUGH FRONT GETS SOUTH
OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY TRAILING UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL WORK
DOWN THIS WAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW SO AM KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. A 1020 MBAR CANADIAN HIGH TAKES OVER MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY WHEN
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AS ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER QUICKLY BUCKLES CARVING OUT A RATHER SHARP TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

CLIMATE...THERE ARE NO 90 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE LAST TIME NASHVILLE HIT 90 DEGREES WAS
BACK ON SEPTEMBER 9TH. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 90 DEGREE TEMP
IN NASHVILLE IS SEPTEMBER 14TH.

THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMP IN A CALENDAR YEAR IS
MAY 28TH.

THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS OCCURRED IS APRIL 9TH 2011.
THE LATEST THAT NASHVILLE HAS RECORDED 90 DEGREE TEMP WAS ON OCTOBER
10TH 1980.

I FOUND IT OF INTEREST THAT BACK IN 1893...NASHVILLE DID NOT REACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK UNTIL JULY 5TH (LATEST EVER). THIS IS VERY LATE
INTO THE SEASON FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY TO OCCUR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 160152
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
852 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL NORTH OF THE
MID-STATE THIS EVENING...BUT THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARD 12Z. MODERATE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PROCESS AND THAT COULD
SPELL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS SEEMINGLY IN LINE AT
THIS POINT AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE CSV AND BNA AREAS AROUND 12Z.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR THE
BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BACK DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT MID-DAY. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THIS IS DUE TO TWO
THINGS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MOST OF ALL THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER 10K FEET OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO
LOWERING OF THE CEILING AS FRONT TO OUR NORTH WORKS DOWN INTO THE
MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT WILL GO WITH
A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN THROUGH FRONT GETS SOUTH
OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY TRAILING UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL WORK
DOWN THIS WAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW SO AM KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. A 1020 MBAR CANADIAN HIGH TAKES OVER MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY WHEN
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AS ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER QUICKLY BUCKLES CARVING OUT A RATHER SHARP TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

CLIMATE...THERE ARE NO 90 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE LAST TIME NASHVILLE HIT 90 DEGREES WAS
BACK ON SEPTEMBER 9TH. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 90 DEGREE TEMP
IN NASHVILLE IS SEPTEMBER 14TH.

THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMP IN A CALENDAR YEAR IS
MAY 28TH.

THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS OCCURRED IS APRIL 9TH 2011.
THE LATEST THAT NASHVILLE HAS RECORDED 90 DEGREE TEMP WAS ON OCTOBER
10TH 1980.

I FOUND IT OF INTEREST THAT BACK IN 1893...NASHVILLE DID NOT REACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK UNTIL JULY 5TH (LATEST EVER). THIS IS VERY LATE
INTO THE SEASON FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY TO OCCUR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 152320
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE CSV AND BNA AREAS AROUND 12Z.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR THE
BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BACK DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT MID-DAY. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THIS IS DUE TO TWO
THINGS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MOST OF ALL THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER 10K FEET OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO
LOWERING OF THE CEILING AS FRONT TO OUR NORTH WORKS DOWN INTO THE
MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT WILL GO WITH
A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN THROUGH FRONT GETS SOUTH
OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY TRAILING UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL WORK
DOWN THIS WAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW SO AM KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. A 1020 MBAR CANADIAN HIGH TAKES OVER MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY WHEN
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AS ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER QUICKLY BUCKLES CARVING OUT A RATHER SHARP TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

CLIMATE...THERE ARE NO 90 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE LAST TIME NASHVILLE HIT 90 DEGREES WAS
BACK ON SEPTEMBER 9TH. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 90 DEGREE TEMP
IN NASHVILLE IS SEPTEMBER 14TH.

THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMP IN A CALENDAR YEAR IS
MAY 28TH.

THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS OCCURRED IS APRIL 9TH 2011.
THE LATEST THAT NASHVILLE HAS RECORDED 90 DEGREE TEMP WAS ON OCTOBER
10TH 1980.

I FOUND IT OF INTEREST THAT BACK IN 1893...NASHVILLE DID NOT REACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK UNTIL JULY 5TH (LATEST EVER). THIS IS VERY LATE
INTO THE SEASON FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY TO OCCUR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 152320
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE CSV AND BNA AREAS AROUND 12Z.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR THE
BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BACK DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT MID-DAY. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THIS IS DUE TO TWO
THINGS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MOST OF ALL THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER 10K FEET OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO
LOWERING OF THE CEILING AS FRONT TO OUR NORTH WORKS DOWN INTO THE
MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT WILL GO WITH
A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN THROUGH FRONT GETS SOUTH
OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY TRAILING UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL WORK
DOWN THIS WAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW SO AM KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. A 1020 MBAR CANADIAN HIGH TAKES OVER MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY WHEN
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AS ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER QUICKLY BUCKLES CARVING OUT A RATHER SHARP TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

CLIMATE...THERE ARE NO 90 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE LAST TIME NASHVILLE HIT 90 DEGREES WAS
BACK ON SEPTEMBER 9TH. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 90 DEGREE TEMP
IN NASHVILLE IS SEPTEMBER 14TH.

THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMP IN A CALENDAR YEAR IS
MAY 28TH.

THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS OCCURRED IS APRIL 9TH 2011.
THE LATEST THAT NASHVILLE HAS RECORDED 90 DEGREE TEMP WAS ON OCTOBER
10TH 1980.

I FOUND IT OF INTEREST THAT BACK IN 1893...NASHVILLE DID NOT REACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK UNTIL JULY 5TH (LATEST EVER). THIS IS VERY LATE
INTO THE SEASON FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY TO OCCUR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 151848
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
148 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BACK DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT MID-DAY. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THIS IS DUE TO TWO
THINGS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MOST OF ALL THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER 10K FEET OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO
LOWERING OF THE CEILING AS FRONT TO OUR NORTH WORKS DOWN INTO THE
MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT WILL GO WITH
A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN THROUGH FRONT GETS SOUTH
OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY TRAILING UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL WORK
DOWN THIS WAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW SO AM KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. A 1020 MBAR CANADIAN HIGH TAKES OVER MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY WHEN
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AS ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER QUICKLY BUCKLES CARVING OUT A RATHER SHARP TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


.CLIMATE...THERE ARE NO 90 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE LAST TIME NASHVILLE HIT 90 DEGREES WAS
BACK ON SEPTEMBER 9TH. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 90 DEGREE TEMP
IN NASHVILLE IS SEPTEMBER 14TH.

THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMP IN A CALENDAR YEAR IS
MAY 28TH.

THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS OCCURRED IS APRIL 9TH 2011.
THE LATEST THAT NASHVILLE HAS RECORDED 90 DEGREE TEMP WAS ON OCTOBER
10TH 1980.

I FOUND IT OF INTEREST THAT BACK IN 1893...NASHVILLE DID NOT REACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK UNTIL JULY 5TH (LATEST EVER). THIS IS VERY LATE
INTO THE SEASON FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY TO OCCUR.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  76  54  77 /  20  20  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    60  75  51  77 /  20  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     58  75  52  72 /  20  20  10  05
COLUMBIA       61  78  55  76 /  20  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   60  80  54  77 /  20  20  10  05
WAVERLY        61  76  51  78 /  20  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 151848
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
148 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BACK DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT MID-DAY. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THIS IS DUE TO TWO
THINGS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MOST OF ALL THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER 10K FEET OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO
LOWERING OF THE CEILING AS FRONT TO OUR NORTH WORKS DOWN INTO THE
MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT WILL GO WITH
A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN THROUGH FRONT GETS SOUTH
OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY TRAILING UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL WORK
DOWN THIS WAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW SO AM KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. A 1020 MBAR CANADIAN HIGH TAKES OVER MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY WHEN
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AS ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER QUICKLY BUCKLES CARVING OUT A RATHER SHARP TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


.CLIMATE...THERE ARE NO 90 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE LAST TIME NASHVILLE HIT 90 DEGREES WAS
BACK ON SEPTEMBER 9TH. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 90 DEGREE TEMP
IN NASHVILLE IS SEPTEMBER 14TH.

THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMP IN A CALENDAR YEAR IS
MAY 28TH.

THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS OCCURRED IS APRIL 9TH 2011.
THE LATEST THAT NASHVILLE HAS RECORDED 90 DEGREE TEMP WAS ON OCTOBER
10TH 1980.

I FOUND IT OF INTEREST THAT BACK IN 1893...NASHVILLE DID NOT REACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK UNTIL JULY 5TH (LATEST EVER). THIS IS VERY LATE
INTO THE SEASON FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY TO OCCUR.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  76  54  77 /  20  20  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    60  75  51  77 /  20  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     58  75  52  72 /  20  20  10  05
COLUMBIA       61  78  55  76 /  20  20  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   60  80  54  77 /  20  20  10  05
WAVERLY        61  76  51  78 /  20  20  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 151713
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1213 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME LIGHT RAINS OVER KCKV AT THE MOMENT AND
SOON TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF KBNA. THE METAR AT KCKV IS NOT
REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS SPRINKLES AT BEST. THUS JUST LEFT A VCSH AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DIE OUT BY AROUND
22-00Z AND LEAVE VFR CEILINGS AFTERWARDS.

TOMORROW MORNING WE SHOULD SEE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEFORE
DAWN AT KCKV AND SOON AFTER AT KBNA. MODELS SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR
BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THAT. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT IT IN THOUGH
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
SHOULD RECOVER NICELY BY MID MORNING THOUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS...WEAK RADAR RETURNS
AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO BE EVIDENT IN WEST TN
APPROACHING THE TN RIVER AND WESTERN MIDDLE TN. DID RECEIVE A
REPORT OF SPRINKLES IN CULLEOKA THIS MORNING AND THINK THAT
SPRINKLES ARE PROBABLY THE EXTENT OF WHAT THESE RADAR RETURNS WILL
GIVE US. ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO KEY IN ON AFTERNOON DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND DETERIORATES THE COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
21Z. ALSO...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GULF SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY
CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL AL AND WEST CENTRAL GA MAINLY. MAYBE A
STRAY SHOWER MAKES IT UP TO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH WITH THAT.

AS A RESULT...TONED DOWN POP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND DRAPED A SLGHT CHC OF SPRINKLES ACROSS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT WAYNE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...CURRENT DIURNAL TRENDS ARE A BIT BELOW
FORECAST HOURLIES BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO WARRANT DECREASING THE
HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL REEVALUATE AS 18Z AND SEE IF CLOUD
COVER HAS DIMINISHED AT ALL. IF NOT...MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAX TS FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. THAT WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT CSV SHOULD
GIVE WAY BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW, SO LOOK FOR MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF`S.
ALSO EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND LAKES AND WATERWAYS...AS WELL AS ON
THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GET
SMALLER. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 7 OR 8 AM BUT KEEP IT IN MIND
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FOCUS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER HAS BEEN
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WHILE WE WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD TODAY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK UP.  THIS IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS...AND WHILE THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED FOR US.  IN FACT...OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE MID-STATE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW.  THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY PUNCH
WITH IT AS THE PARENT LOW REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.
THE BULK OF WHAT WE MAY SEE IS ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OVERALL
ENERGY TO SPEAK OF...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS NORTHERLY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE IDEA OF ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT
TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MENTION NONETHELESS.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM
CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE.  FOR
NOW...THERE`S NO GREAT CONCERN FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.   MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND
WHILE THE FRONT ISN`T THAT SHARP NOR DOES IT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH
IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLOUD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 151713
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1213 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME LIGHT RAINS OVER KCKV AT THE MOMENT AND
SOON TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF KBNA. THE METAR AT KCKV IS NOT
REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS SPRINKLES AT BEST. THUS JUST LEFT A VCSH AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DIE OUT BY AROUND
22-00Z AND LEAVE VFR CEILINGS AFTERWARDS.

TOMORROW MORNING WE SHOULD SEE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEFORE
DAWN AT KCKV AND SOON AFTER AT KBNA. MODELS SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR
BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THAT. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT IT IN THOUGH
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
SHOULD RECOVER NICELY BY MID MORNING THOUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS...WEAK RADAR RETURNS
AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO BE EVIDENT IN WEST TN
APPROACHING THE TN RIVER AND WESTERN MIDDLE TN. DID RECEIVE A
REPORT OF SPRINKLES IN CULLEOKA THIS MORNING AND THINK THAT
SPRINKLES ARE PROBABLY THE EXTENT OF WHAT THESE RADAR RETURNS WILL
GIVE US. ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO KEY IN ON AFTERNOON DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND DETERIORATES THE COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
21Z. ALSO...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GULF SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY
CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL AL AND WEST CENTRAL GA MAINLY. MAYBE A
STRAY SHOWER MAKES IT UP TO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH WITH THAT.

AS A RESULT...TONED DOWN POP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND DRAPED A SLGHT CHC OF SPRINKLES ACROSS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT WAYNE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...CURRENT DIURNAL TRENDS ARE A BIT BELOW
FORECAST HOURLIES BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO WARRANT DECREASING THE
HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL REEVALUATE AS 18Z AND SEE IF CLOUD
COVER HAS DIMINISHED AT ALL. IF NOT...MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAX TS FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. THAT WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT CSV SHOULD
GIVE WAY BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW, SO LOOK FOR MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF`S.
ALSO EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND LAKES AND WATERWAYS...AS WELL AS ON
THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GET
SMALLER. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 7 OR 8 AM BUT KEEP IT IN MIND
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FOCUS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER HAS BEEN
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WHILE WE WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD TODAY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK UP.  THIS IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS...AND WHILE THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED FOR US.  IN FACT...OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE MID-STATE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW.  THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY PUNCH
WITH IT AS THE PARENT LOW REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.
THE BULK OF WHAT WE MAY SEE IS ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OVERALL
ENERGY TO SPEAK OF...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS NORTHERLY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE IDEA OF ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT
TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MENTION NONETHELESS.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM
CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE.  FOR
NOW...THERE`S NO GREAT CONCERN FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.   MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND
WHILE THE FRONT ISN`T THAT SHARP NOR DOES IT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH
IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLOUD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12







000
FXUS64 KOHX 151608
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS...WEAK RADAR RETURNS
AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO BE EVIDENT IN WEST TN
APPROACHING THE TN RIVER AND WESTERN MIDDLE TN. DID RECEIVE A
REPORT OF SPRINKLES IN CULLEOKA THIS MORNING AND THINK THAT
SPRINKLES ARE PROBABLY THE EXTENT OF WHAT THESE RADAR RETURNS WILL
GIVE US. ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO KEY IN ON AFTERNOON DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND DETERIORATES THE COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
21Z. ALSO...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GULF SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY
CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL AL AND WEST CENTRAL GA MAINLY. MAYBE A
STRAY SHOWER MAKES IT UP TO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH WITH THAT.

AS A RESULT...TONED DOWN POP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND DRAPED A SLGHT CHC OF SPRINKLES ACROSS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT WAYNE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...CURRENT DIURNAL TRENDS ARE A BIT BELOW
FORECAST HOURLIES BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO WARRANT DECREASING THE
HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL REEVALUATE AS 18Z AND SEE IF CLOUD
COVER HAS DIMINISHED AT ALL. IF NOT...MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAX TS FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. THAT WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT CSV SHOULD
GIVE WAY BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW, SO LOOK FOR MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF`S.
ALSO EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND LAKES AND WATERWAYS...AS WELL AS ON
THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GET
SMALLER. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 7 OR 8 AM BUT KEEP IT IN MIND
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FOCUS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER HAS BEEN
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WHILE WE WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD TODAY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK UP.  THIS IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS...AND WHILE THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED FOR US.  IN FACT...OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE MID-STATE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW.  THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY PUNCH
WITH IT AS THE PARENT LOW REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.
THE BULK OF WHAT WE MAY SEE IS ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OVERALL
ENERGY TO SPEAK OF...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS NORTHERLY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE IDEA OF ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT
TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MENTION NONETHELESS.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM
CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE.  FOR
NOW...THERE`S NO GREAT CONCERN FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.   MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND
WHILE THE FRONT ISN`T THAT SHARP NOR DOES IT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH
IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLOUD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12







000
FXUS64 KOHX 151608
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS...WEAK RADAR RETURNS
AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO BE EVIDENT IN WEST TN
APPROACHING THE TN RIVER AND WESTERN MIDDLE TN. DID RECEIVE A
REPORT OF SPRINKLES IN CULLEOKA THIS MORNING AND THINK THAT
SPRINKLES ARE PROBABLY THE EXTENT OF WHAT THESE RADAR RETURNS WILL
GIVE US. ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO KEY IN ON AFTERNOON DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND DETERIORATES THE COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
21Z. ALSO...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GULF SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY
CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL AL AND WEST CENTRAL GA MAINLY. MAYBE A
STRAY SHOWER MAKES IT UP TO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH WITH THAT.

AS A RESULT...TONED DOWN POP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND DRAPED A SLGHT CHC OF SPRINKLES ACROSS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT WAYNE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...CURRENT DIURNAL TRENDS ARE A BIT BELOW
FORECAST HOURLIES BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO WARRANT DECREASING THE
HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL REEVALUATE AS 18Z AND SEE IF CLOUD
COVER HAS DIMINISHED AT ALL. IF NOT...MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAX TS FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. THAT WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT CSV SHOULD
GIVE WAY BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW, SO LOOK FOR MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF`S.
ALSO EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND LAKES AND WATERWAYS...AS WELL AS ON
THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GET
SMALLER. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 7 OR 8 AM BUT KEEP IT IN MIND
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FOCUS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER HAS BEEN
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WHILE WE WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD TODAY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK UP.  THIS IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS...AND WHILE THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED FOR US.  IN FACT...OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE MID-STATE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW.  THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY PUNCH
WITH IT AS THE PARENT LOW REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.
THE BULK OF WHAT WE MAY SEE IS ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OVERALL
ENERGY TO SPEAK OF...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS NORTHERLY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE IDEA OF ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT
TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MENTION NONETHELESS.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM
CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE.  FOR
NOW...THERE`S NO GREAT CONCERN FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.   MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND
WHILE THE FRONT ISN`T THAT SHARP NOR DOES IT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH
IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLOUD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12






000
FXUS64 KOHX 151137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT CSV SHOULD
GIVE WAY BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW, SO LOOK FOR MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF`S.
ALSO EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND LAKES AND WATERWAYS...AS WELL AS ON
THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GET
SMALLER. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 7 OR 8 AM BUT KEEP IT IN MIND
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FOCUS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER HAS BEEN
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WHILE WE WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD TODAY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK UP.  THIS IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS...AND WHILE THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED FOR US.  IN FACT...OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE MID-STATE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW.  THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY PUNCH
WITH IT AS THE PARENT LOW REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.
THE BULK OF WHAT WE MAY SEE IS ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OVERALL
ENERGY TO SPEAK OF...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS NORTHERLY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE IDEA OF ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT
TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MENTION NONETHELESS.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM
CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE.  FOR
NOW...THERE`S NO GREAT CONCERN FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.   MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND
WHILE THE FRONT ISN`T THAT SHARP NOR DOES IT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH
IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLOUD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 151137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT CSV SHOULD
GIVE WAY BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW, SO LOOK FOR MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF`S.
ALSO EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND LAKES AND WATERWAYS...AS WELL AS ON
THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GET
SMALLER. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 7 OR 8 AM BUT KEEP IT IN MIND
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FOCUS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER HAS BEEN
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WHILE WE WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD TODAY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK UP.  THIS IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS...AND WHILE THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED FOR US.  IN FACT...OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE MID-STATE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW.  THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY PUNCH
WITH IT AS THE PARENT LOW REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.
THE BULK OF WHAT WE MAY SEE IS ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OVERALL
ENERGY TO SPEAK OF...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS NORTHERLY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE IDEA OF ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT
TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MENTION NONETHELESS.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM
CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE.  FOR
NOW...THERE`S NO GREAT CONCERN FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.   MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND
WHILE THE FRONT ISN`T THAT SHARP NOR DOES IT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH
IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLOUD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 150844
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND LAKES AND WATERWAYS...AS WELL AS ON
THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GET
SMALLER. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 7 OR 8 AM BUT KEEP IT IN MIND
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FOCUS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER HAS BEEN
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WHILE WE WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD TODAY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK UP.  THIS IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS...AND WHILE THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED FOR US.  IN FACT...OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE MID-STATE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW.  THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY PUNCH
WITH IT AS THE PARENT LOW REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.
THE BULK OF WHAT WE MAY SEE IS ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OVERALL
ENERGY TO SPEAK OF...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS NORTHERLY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE IDEA OF ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT
TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MENTION NONETHELESS.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM
CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE.  FOR
NOW...THERE`S NO GREAT CONCERN FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.   MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND
WHILE THE FRONT ISN`T THAT SHARP NOR DOES IT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH
IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLOUD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    78  60  74  53 /  10  20  10  10
CROSSVILLE     77  61  75  54 /  30  20  10  10
COLUMBIA       79  63  78  57 /  20  20  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   80  63  80  57 /  20  20  20  10
WAVERLY        78  61  76  54 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 150844
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND LAKES AND WATERWAYS...AS WELL AS ON
THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GET
SMALLER. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 7 OR 8 AM BUT KEEP IT IN MIND
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FOCUS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER HAS BEEN
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WHILE WE WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD TODAY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK UP.  THIS IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS...AND WHILE THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED FOR US.  IN FACT...OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE MID-STATE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW.  THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY PUNCH
WITH IT AS THE PARENT LOW REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.
THE BULK OF WHAT WE MAY SEE IS ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OVERALL
ENERGY TO SPEAK OF...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS NORTHERLY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE IDEA OF ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT
TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MENTION NONETHELESS.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM
CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE.  FOR
NOW...THERE`S NO GREAT CONCERN FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.   MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND
WHILE THE FRONT ISN`T THAT SHARP NOR DOES IT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH
IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLOUD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    78  60  74  53 /  10  20  10  10
CROSSVILLE     77  61  75  54 /  30  20  10  10
COLUMBIA       79  63  78  57 /  20  20  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   80  63  80  57 /  20  20  20  10
WAVERLY        78  61  76  54 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 150449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...
DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE MID-STATE THIS EVE AND TEMPS ARE
RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECASTED. WILL LOWER MINS A
DEGREE OR TWO BY OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT
CSV AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PD. BUT...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOWARD
12Z WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSV. SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY...MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW 50S AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVING A DECENT CHANCE OF
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHO COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN TEMPS HEAT A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OVER
THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 150214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE MID-STATE THIS EVE AND TEMPS ARE
RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECASTED. WILL LOWER MINS A
DEGREE OR TWO BY OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT
CSV AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PD. BUT...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOWARD
12Z WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSV. SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY...MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW 50S AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVING A DECENT CHANCE OF
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHO COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN TEMPS HEAT A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OVER
THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 150214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE MID-STATE THIS EVE AND TEMPS ARE
RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECASTED. WILL LOWER MINS A
DEGREE OR TWO BY OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT
CSV AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PD. BUT...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOWARD
12Z WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSV. SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY...MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW 50S AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVING A DECENT CHANCE OF
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHO COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN TEMPS HEAT A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OVER
THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 142228
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT
CSV AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PD. BUT...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOWARD
12Z WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSV. SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY...MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW 50S AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVING A DECENT CHANCE OF
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHO COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN TEMPS HEAT A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OVER
THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 142228
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT
CSV AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PD. BUT...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOWARD
12Z WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSV. SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY...MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW 50S AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVING A DECENT CHANCE OF
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHO COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN TEMPS HEAT A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OVER
THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 142055
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
355 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY...MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW 50S AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVING A DECENT CHANCE OF
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHO COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN TEMPS HEAT A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OVER
THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      55  78  61  80 /  10  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    49  77  59  77 /  05  10  20  10
CROSSVILLE     55  78  60  78 /  10  20  20  10
COLUMBIA       55  79  62  79 /  10  20  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   57  81  62  80 /  10  20  20  20
WAVERLY        51  76  60  78 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 142055
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
355 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY...MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW 50S AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVING A DECENT CHANCE OF
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHO COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN TEMPS HEAT A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OVER
THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      55  78  61  80 /  10  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    49  77  59  77 /  05  10  20  10
CROSSVILLE     55  78  60  78 /  10  20  20  10
COLUMBIA       55  79  62  79 /  10  20  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   57  81  62  80 /  10  20  20  20
WAVERLY        51  76  60  78 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 141737
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO MID TN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CSV WILL BE AN
EXCEPTION LATE TONIGHT...WITH FOG AND STRATUS LIKELY.

13

&&



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER, COOLER AIR NOW SETTLED OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THERE WILL SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT THESE SHOULD GO AWAY BY NOON, LEAVING US
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY. A WEAKENING, FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS THE MID STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY MID-
WEEK. A BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S.,
PRODUCING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 141737
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO MID TN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CSV WILL BE AN
EXCEPTION LATE TONIGHT...WITH FOG AND STRATUS LIKELY.

13

&&



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER, COOLER AIR NOW SETTLED OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THERE WILL SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT THESE SHOULD GO AWAY BY NOON, LEAVING US
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY. A WEAKENING, FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS THE MID STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY MID-
WEEK. A BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S.,
PRODUCING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 141136
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
636 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KCSV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING. FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE ON THE PLATEAU BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. VFR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MORE LOW-CLOUD COVERAGE TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS TAF CYCLE...FOR ALL 3 TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN FUTURE TAFS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER, COOLER AIR NOW SETTLED OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THERE WILL SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT THESE SHOULD GO AWAY BY NOON, LEAVING US
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY. A WEAKENING, FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS THE MID STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY MID-
WEEK. A BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S.,
PRODUCING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 141136
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
636 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KCSV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING. FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE ON THE PLATEAU BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. VFR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MORE LOW-CLOUD COVERAGE TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS TAF CYCLE...FOR ALL 3 TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN FUTURE TAFS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER, COOLER AIR NOW SETTLED OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THERE WILL SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT THESE SHOULD GO AWAY BY NOON, LEAVING US
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY. A WEAKENING, FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS THE MID STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY MID-
WEEK. A BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S.,
PRODUCING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 140654
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
154 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER, COOLER AIR NOW SETTLED OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THERE WILL SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT THESE SHOULD GO AWAY BY NOON, LEAVING US
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY. A WEAKENING, FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS THE MID STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY MID-
WEEK. A BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S.,
PRODUCING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  58  82  62 /  05  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    75  50  79  59 /  05  05  10  20
CROSSVILLE     75  58  78  60 /  10  10  20  20
COLUMBIA       79  59  83  62 /  05  10  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  60  84  61 /  05  10  20  30
WAVERLY        77  53  81  60 /  05  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 140654
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
154 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER, COOLER AIR NOW SETTLED OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THERE WILL SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT THESE SHOULD GO AWAY BY NOON, LEAVING US
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY. A WEAKENING, FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS THE MID STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY MID-
WEEK. A BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S.,
PRODUCING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WITH A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  58  82  62 /  05  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    75  50  79  59 /  05  05  10  20
CROSSVILLE     75  58  78  60 /  10  10  20  20
COLUMBIA       79  59  83  62 /  05  10  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  60  84  61 /  05  10  20  30
WAVERLY        77  53  81  60 /  05  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 140429
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING
IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z EXCEPT AT CSV WHERE THE CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PD. MODELS STILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS ELEVATED
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE LEVELS...ESCPECIALLY AT CSV. OTW...LIGHT
AREAS OF FOG STILL POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / STRATA-CU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-STATE THIS EVENING. PRETTY GOOD INVERSION EXPECTED
TO SET UP WHICH MAY LIMIT CLOUDS FROM CLEARING COMPLETELY.
WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION SLIGHTY AS WELL AS TWEAK TEMPS
A BIT. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON BUT THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST TO THE NW
NEAR CKV. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS
CLEARING LINE. MODELS STILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS ELEVATED IN
TERMS OF MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...EVEN THOUGH THE PARTIAL CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TO WIN OUT...WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LIGHT FOG
TOWARD 12Z.

AT CSV...CLOUDS TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT
AFTER 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
COOL...IN THE MID 60S. BEGINNING TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN CKV`S JUMP FROM 61 TO 64
DEGREES FROM 2PM TO 3PM. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO HANG IN OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY ALLOWS FOR CLEARER SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. AREAS IN KENTUCKY ARE EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S THIS EVENING. WE`LL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ZONAL FLOW WILL SET IN AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SO NOT MUCH
MOVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THIS WILL HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. KEEP ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POP IN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. MODELS INDICATING
VERY LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM...HOWEVER THAT WILL
INTRODUCE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH COOL DRY AIR ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 140429
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING
IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z EXCEPT AT CSV WHERE THE CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PD. MODELS STILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS ELEVATED
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE LEVELS...ESCPECIALLY AT CSV. OTW...LIGHT
AREAS OF FOG STILL POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / STRATA-CU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-STATE THIS EVENING. PRETTY GOOD INVERSION EXPECTED
TO SET UP WHICH MAY LIMIT CLOUDS FROM CLEARING COMPLETELY.
WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITION SLIGHTY AS WELL AS TWEAK TEMPS
A BIT. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON BUT THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST TO THE NW
NEAR CKV. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS
CLEARING LINE. MODELS STILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS ELEVATED IN
TERMS OF MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS...EVEN THOUGH THE PARTIAL CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TO WIN OUT...WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LIGHT FOG
TOWARD 12Z.

AT CSV...CLOUDS TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT
AFTER 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
COOL...IN THE MID 60S. BEGINNING TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN CKV`S JUMP FROM 61 TO 64
DEGREES FROM 2PM TO 3PM. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO HANG IN OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY ALLOWS FOR CLEARER SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. AREAS IN KENTUCKY ARE EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S THIS EVENING. WE`LL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ZONAL FLOW WILL SET IN AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SO NOT MUCH
MOVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THIS WILL HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. KEEP ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POP IN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. MODELS INDICATING
VERY LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM...HOWEVER THAT WILL
INTRODUCE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH COOL DRY AIR ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities