Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KOHX 220249
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...

CURRENTLY STRATUS IS FILTERING NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EASILY SEEN SPINNING OVER MO FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY
MONDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS BECAUSE OF THAT. OVERNIGHT
CHANGES...REMOVED POP WORDING AND JUST LEFT IN DRIZZLE WORDING
OVER THE EAST SINCE THERE COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SPRINKLES
OR DRIZZLE PULLED FROM THE STRATUS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220249
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...

CURRENTLY STRATUS IS FILTERING NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EASILY SEEN SPINNING OVER MO FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY
MONDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS BECAUSE OF THAT. OVERNIGHT
CHANGES...REMOVED POP WORDING AND JUST LEFT IN DRIZZLE WORDING
OVER THE EAST SINCE THERE COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SPRINKLES
OR DRIZZLE PULLED FROM THE STRATUS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220249
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...

CURRENTLY STRATUS IS FILTERING NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EASILY SEEN SPINNING OVER MO FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY
MONDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS BECAUSE OF THAT. OVERNIGHT
CHANGES...REMOVED POP WORDING AND JUST LEFT IN DRIZZLE WORDING
OVER THE EAST SINCE THERE COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SPRINKLES
OR DRIZZLE PULLED FROM THE STRATUS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220249
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
849 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...

CURRENTLY STRATUS IS FILTERING NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EASILY SEEN SPINNING OVER MO FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY
MONDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS BECAUSE OF THAT. OVERNIGHT
CHANGES...REMOVED POP WORDING AND JUST LEFT IN DRIZZLE WORDING
OVER THE EAST SINCE THERE COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SPRINKLES
OR DRIZZLE PULLED FROM THE STRATUS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 212346
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 212346
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
DISTURBANCE WESTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS IS PULLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON
MONDAY BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
WIND GUSTS IN FORECASTS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 212149
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH MEANS A WARMER NIGHT IS IN STORE...LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
NORTH AND LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. LOW POPS WILL SURROUND THE MID STATE ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING
AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AS FAR AS THE FROPA GOES...IT MAY
BE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...IF TRAVELLING
CLOSER TO THE GULF FOR THE HOLIDAYS KEEP AN EYE ON FORECASTS AS
THEY COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE PUSHING EAST BY
NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ONCE AGAIN MODELS
ARE TRENDING WARMER WITH THESE TEMPS. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOKS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN...MAINLY LATE IN THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING PRECIP AROUND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 12AM THURSDAY MORNING MAY FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS LOWER LEVELS COOL TO THE LOW 30S. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THE PLATEAU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT
SNOW DURING THIS TIME...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT IS ABLE TO BRING
OUR WAY. WENT AS HIGH AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
WRAPPING UP ON SATURDAY EVENING. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE PLATEAU NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE COOLING DOWN TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND UPPER 20S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  56  51  60 /  10  20  40  80
CLARKSVILLE    38  55  51  58 /  10  20  60  90
CROSSVILLE     38  52  47  56 /  20  20  20  80
COLUMBIA       41  56  51  60 /  20  20  40  80
LAWRENCEBURG   42  55  51  60 /  20  20  50  90
WAVERLY        39  55  51  59 /  10  20  70  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 212149
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH MEANS A WARMER NIGHT IS IN STORE...LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
NORTH AND LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. LOW POPS WILL SURROUND THE MID STATE ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING
AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AS FAR AS THE FROPA GOES...IT MAY
BE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...IF TRAVELLING
CLOSER TO THE GULF FOR THE HOLIDAYS KEEP AN EYE ON FORECASTS AS
THEY COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE PUSHING EAST BY
NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ONCE AGAIN MODELS
ARE TRENDING WARMER WITH THESE TEMPS. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOKS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN...MAINLY LATE IN THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING PRECIP AROUND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 12AM THURSDAY MORNING MAY FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS LOWER LEVELS COOL TO THE LOW 30S. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THE PLATEAU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT
SNOW DURING THIS TIME...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT IS ABLE TO BRING
OUR WAY. WENT AS HIGH AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
WRAPPING UP ON SATURDAY EVENING. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE PLATEAU NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE COOLING DOWN TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND UPPER 20S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  56  51  60 /  10  20  40  80
CLARKSVILLE    38  55  51  58 /  10  20  60  90
CROSSVILLE     38  52  47  56 /  20  20  20  80
COLUMBIA       41  56  51  60 /  20  20  40  80
LAWRENCEBURG   42  55  51  60 /  20  20  50  90
WAVERLY        39  55  51  59 /  10  20  70  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211800
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
STRATUS DECK ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ADVANCING LINE OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM
CSV SOUTHWEST THROUGH PULASKI. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRATUS LAYER ADVANCING AND OVERTAKING THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL
THIS EVENING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADJUST THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW SOME
ADDED CLOUDINESS FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
OTW...WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO.
CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE AT THE VFR LEVELS BUT WILL LOWER WITH
TIME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR CSV AFT 06Z. OTW...WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH MODERATE FOG AND IFR CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211727
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO.
CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE AT THE VFR LEVELS BUT WILL LOWER WITH
TIME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR CSV AFT 06Z. OTW...WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH MODERATE FOG AND IFR CIGS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211727
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO.
CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE AT THE VFR LEVELS BUT WILL LOWER WITH
TIME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR CSV AFT 06Z. OTW...WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH MODERATE FOG AND IFR CIGS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211104
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
225 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WAS
BRINGING CLEAR AND CHILLY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
20S WITH CALM WINDS...AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED MAINLY
OVER LAKES AND RIVERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST TODAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH LATE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MILDER AIR.

THE DEEPENING TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY WILL DRAW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE MID STATE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.25 INCHES OR
+2SD...INDICATING A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...PERHAPS MORE
THAN AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. SOME THUNDER WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH AT
LEAST MODEST CAPE DEVELOPING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BRING THE HIGHEST POPS. CHRISTMAS EVE TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WE INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATER CHRISTMAS
EVE. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE...BUT TRAVELERS TO THE
NORTH OF TN AND MOUNTAINS WILL WANT TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF CHILLY
AIR.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  40  56  50 /   0  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    50  38  55  50 /   0  10  20  60
CROSSVILLE     48  38  52  46 /   0  20  20  20
COLUMBIA       52  41  56  51 /   0  20  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   51  42  55  51 /   0  20  20  50
WAVERLY        50  39  55  51 /   0  10  20  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
225 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WAS
BRINGING CLEAR AND CHILLY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
20S WITH CALM WINDS...AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED MAINLY
OVER LAKES AND RIVERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST TODAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH LATE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MILDER AIR.

THE DEEPENING TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY WILL DRAW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE MID STATE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.25 INCHES OR
+2SD...INDICATING A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...PERHAPS MORE
THAN AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. SOME THUNDER WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH AT
LEAST MODEST CAPE DEVELOPING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BRING THE HIGHEST POPS. CHRISTMAS EVE TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WE INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATER CHRISTMAS
EVE. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE...BUT TRAVELERS TO THE
NORTH OF TN AND MOUNTAINS WILL WANT TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF CHILLY
AIR.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  40  56  50 /   0  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    50  38  55  50 /   0  10  20  60
CROSSVILLE     48  38  52  46 /   0  20  20  20
COLUMBIA       52  41  56  51 /   0  20  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   51  42  55  51 /   0  20  20  50
WAVERLY        50  39  55  51 /   0  10  20  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 210517
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1117 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND MOISTURE GETS
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION AS SOUTHELY WINDS INCREASE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MEANS CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH MOST TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE PERFECT CONDITIONS. A FEW READINGS, MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLATEAU AND HIGHLAND RIM, HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS, SO HAVE RE-WORKED
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY HAD PARTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY AIR MASS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PULL
SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDING
THINGS UP WITH A LOW DECK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PICK UP IN SPEED AFTER 00Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 202205
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
405 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE LOW 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR PWAT VALUES TO APPROACH 1.27
INCHES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S.
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING
DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY.
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 65 AND IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RAPIDLY COOL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP ALL PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM IN
LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ON CHRISTMAS EVE...AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL QUICKLY DROP...ALLOWING FOR RAIN
TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN TO ALL SNOW AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY).
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      28  52  41  56 /   0  05  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    26  51  39  55 /  05  05  10  20
CROSSVILLE     28  49  38  52 /   0  05  20  10
COLUMBIA       29  53  42  56 /   0  05  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   30  53  41  56 /   0  05  20  20
WAVERLY        28  51  40  56 /   0  05  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201939
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
139 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS STILL PERSISTS. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER...A RATHER LARGE HOLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN FACT. LATEST RADAR TREND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL BREAKS
UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...FOR THE UPDATE...NO CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT
SKY GRIDS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE AND REFLECT THE GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPS HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A
FEW DEGREES AS MAX TEMPS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO BEING REACHED.
REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      48  28  52  41 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  26  51  39 /   0  05  05  10
CROSSVILLE     47  28  49  38 /  10   0  05  20
COLUMBIA       48  29  53  42 /   0   0  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   47  30  53  41 /   0   0  05  20
WAVERLY        45  28  51  40 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201939
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
139 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS STILL PERSISTS. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER...A RATHER LARGE HOLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN FACT. LATEST RADAR TREND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL BREAKS
UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...FOR THE UPDATE...NO CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT
SKY GRIDS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE AND REFLECT THE GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPS HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A
FEW DEGREES AS MAX TEMPS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO BEING REACHED.
REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      48  28  52  41 /   0   0  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  26  51  39 /   0  05  05  10
CROSSVILLE     47  28  49  38 /  10   0  05  20
COLUMBIA       48  29  53  42 /   0   0  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   47  30  53  41 /   0   0  05  20
WAVERLY        45  28  51  40 /   0   0  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE RIDGING. AS THE DRIER AIR WINDS
OUT...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSV AREA TOWARD
12Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
544 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH
NORTHEAST FLOW AT ALL MID- STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, DUE TO BR. MEANWHILE,
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH OF OUR OTHER MID STATE TERMINALS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
544 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH
NORTHEAST FLOW AT ALL MID- STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, DUE TO BR. MEANWHILE,
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH OF OUR OTHER MID STATE TERMINALS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200925
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FLURRIES...ICE PELLETS AND DRIZZLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. A FEW
RADAR RETURNS REMAINED ON THE PLATEAU AT 300 AM...BUT THESE WILL
BE GONE SOON...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR COMING IN
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN WX FEATURE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL..IN THE 40S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY...LOWS IN THE 20S. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY IN
THE MORNING...WITH A SUN AND CLOUD MIX IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER
THE PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CARRY ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH
SHARPENS...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT DEVELOPS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO MID TN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.23
INCH...OR ABOUT +2SD...SUGGESTING A SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT. RIGHT
NOW...WE HAVE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DECENT SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODEST CAPE.

FOR WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE)...THE DEEP TROUGH WILL PUSH
EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND TO THE GULF COAST. A QUICK SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN MID TN. WE EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...BUT IT LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN TRAVEL
IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT ANYBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NORTH OF TN OR TO THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR UPDATED WX INFORMATION.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY INTO EASTERN CANADA FOR
CHRISTMAS...LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY SUNNY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL RAIN CHANCE FRIDAY....FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL WX INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  29  52  41 /   0   0   0  20
CLARKSVILLE    44  27  51  39 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     44  27  49  38 /  10   0  10  30
COLUMBIA       47  29  53  42 /   0   0  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   47  30  53  42 /   0   0  10  20
WAVERLY        45  28  51  40 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200925
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FLURRIES...ICE PELLETS AND DRIZZLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. A FEW
RADAR RETURNS REMAINED ON THE PLATEAU AT 300 AM...BUT THESE WILL
BE GONE SOON...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR COMING IN
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN WX FEATURE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL..IN THE 40S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY...LOWS IN THE 20S. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY IN
THE MORNING...WITH A SUN AND CLOUD MIX IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER
THE PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CARRY ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH
SHARPENS...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT DEVELOPS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO MID TN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.23
INCH...OR ABOUT +2SD...SUGGESTING A SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT. RIGHT
NOW...WE HAVE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DECENT SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODEST CAPE.

FOR WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE)...THE DEEP TROUGH WILL PUSH
EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND TO THE GULF COAST. A QUICK SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN MID TN. WE EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...BUT IT LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN TRAVEL
IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT ANYBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NORTH OF TN OR TO THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR UPDATED WX INFORMATION.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY INTO EASTERN CANADA FOR
CHRISTMAS...LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY SUNNY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL RAIN CHANCE FRIDAY....FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL WX INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  29  52  41 /   0   0   0  20
CLARKSVILLE    44  27  51  39 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     44  27  49  38 /  10   0  10  30
COLUMBIA       47  29  53  42 /   0   0  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   47  30  53  42 /   0   0  10  20
WAVERLY        45  28  51  40 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200702
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
102 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO END PRECIP CHC OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.

OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200702
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
102 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO END PRECIP CHC OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.

OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200541
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING SHOWING TEMP PROFILE AT OR BELOW ZERO AT NASHVILLE
EXCEPT IN BOUNDARY LAYER SO AM EXPECTING MOSTLY ALL LIGHT SNOW BUT
A LITTLE SLEET COULD STILL OCCUR IN POCKETS. BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SLEET/SNOW
JUST ABOUT ON INTERSTATE 65 AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND OFF THE PLATEAU BY 12Z. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT BUT PRECIP HAS ENDED FOR
THE NIGHT WEST HALF OF MID STATE. SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH
NOW EXTENDING FROM ABOUT BOWLING GREEN DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI APPEARS TO BE SHUTTING OFF PRECIP WITH
ITS PASSAGE. WELL DIFINED BACK EDGE EVIDENT ON OHX DOPPLER.
ALSO...80 KNOT SPEED MAX CENTERED OVER NORTH ALABAMA MAY AID
PRECIP A LITTLE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS.




&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200354
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
954 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR LIGHT SLEET/SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...
BEEN GETTING A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SLEET/SNOW COMBINATION IN PLACES
LIKE DICKSON AND AREAS DOWN CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA BORDER. OTHER THAN
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPS SOUNDING AT 03Z NOW SHOWING TEMP PROFILE
AT OR BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT TIGHTENING UP. HAVE
UPDATED TO INCLUDE ICE PELLETS AND SNOW IN BOTH NASHVILLE AND
CLARKSVILLE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z...ALREADY HAD IT IN AT CROSSVILLE.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT BOTH NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR BUT MVFR AT CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. MODELS HAVE
PRECIP PULLING AWAY FROM MY CWA RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 12Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200354
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
954 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR LIGHT SLEET/SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...
BEEN GETTING A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SLEET/SNOW COMBINATION IN PLACES
LIKE DICKSON AND AREAS DOWN CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA BORDER. OTHER THAN
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPS SOUNDING AT 03Z NOW SHOWING TEMP PROFILE
AT OR BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT TIGHTENING UP. HAVE
UPDATED TO INCLUDE ICE PELLETS AND SNOW IN BOTH NASHVILLE AND
CLARKSVILLE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z...ALREADY HAD IT IN AT CROSSVILLE.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT BOTH NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR BUT MVFR AT CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. MODELS HAVE
PRECIP PULLING AWAY FROM MY CWA RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 12Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200354
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
954 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR LIGHT SLEET/SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...
BEEN GETTING A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SLEET/SNOW COMBINATION IN PLACES
LIKE DICKSON AND AREAS DOWN CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA BORDER. OTHER THAN
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPS SOUNDING AT 03Z NOW SHOWING TEMP PROFILE
AT OR BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT TIGHTENING UP. HAVE
UPDATED TO INCLUDE ICE PELLETS AND SNOW IN BOTH NASHVILLE AND
CLARKSVILLE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z...ALREADY HAD IT IN AT CROSSVILLE.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT BOTH NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR BUT MVFR AT CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. MODELS HAVE
PRECIP PULLING AWAY FROM MY CWA RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 12Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200354
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
954 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR LIGHT SLEET/SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...
BEEN GETTING A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SLEET/SNOW COMBINATION IN PLACES
LIKE DICKSON AND AREAS DOWN CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA BORDER. OTHER THAN
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPS SOUNDING AT 03Z NOW SHOWING TEMP PROFILE
AT OR BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT TIGHTENING UP. HAVE
UPDATED TO INCLUDE ICE PELLETS AND SNOW IN BOTH NASHVILLE AND
CLARKSVILLE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z...ALREADY HAD IT IN AT CROSSVILLE.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT BOTH NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR BUT MVFR AT CROSSVILLE AFTER 06Z. MODELS HAVE
PRECIP PULLING AWAY FROM MY CWA RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 12Z.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
715 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY WITH A PWAT OF 0.49 INCHES...ALTHOUGH COLUMN HAS
MOISTENED SOMEWHAT SINCE 12Z. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL...BUT SURFACE OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP IS
REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF A TUPELO TO HUNTSVILLE LINE DUE TO
DRIER ATMOSPHERE UP THIS WAY. IN ADDITION...ALL LATEST 12Z/18Z
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/HRRR KEEPS MAJORITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID STATE TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH/PLATEAU. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WOULD LIKELY START AS OR
TRANSITION TO SNOW QUICKLY...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION
FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
TWEAKED LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO LATEST OBS AND CLOUD COVER...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS OK
ATTM.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
SYSTEM DOWN ALONG GULF COAST WILL WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD TONIGHT
WITH MID STATE ON NORTHERN FRINGE...NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE MUCH OVER NORTH HALF ESPECIALLY AT CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT THE 00Z OHX
RAOB SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL
NEED TO MOISTEN UP BEFORE PRECIP WILL HIT THE GROUND. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT WET BULBING THINK PROFILE WILL COOL DOWN BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS EXCEPT IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR SURFACE WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY HOVER AROUND FREEZING. THIS SAID WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
AT CLARKSVILLE OR NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX 06Z. SYSTEM EXITS
QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
715 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY WITH A PWAT OF 0.49 INCHES...ALTHOUGH COLUMN HAS
MOISTENED SOMEWHAT SINCE 12Z. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL...BUT SURFACE OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP IS
REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF A TUPELO TO HUNTSVILLE LINE DUE TO
DRIER ATMOSPHERE UP THIS WAY. IN ADDITION...ALL LATEST 12Z/18Z
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/HRRR KEEPS MAJORITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID STATE TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH/PLATEAU. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WOULD LIKELY START AS OR
TRANSITION TO SNOW QUICKLY...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION
FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
TWEAKED LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO LATEST OBS AND CLOUD COVER...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS OK
ATTM.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
SYSTEM DOWN ALONG GULF COAST WILL WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD TONIGHT
WITH MID STATE ON NORTHERN FRINGE...NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE MUCH OVER NORTH HALF ESPECIALLY AT CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT THE 00Z OHX
RAOB SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL
NEED TO MOISTEN UP BEFORE PRECIP WILL HIT THE GROUND. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT WET BULBING THINK PROFILE WILL COOL DOWN BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS EXCEPT IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR SURFACE WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY HOVER AROUND FREEZING. THIS SAID WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
AT CLARKSVILLE OR NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX 06Z. SYSTEM EXITS
QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200020
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SYSTEM DOWN ALONG GULF COAST WILL WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD TONIGHT
WITH MID STATE ON NORTHERN FRINGE...NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE MUCH OVER NORTH HALF ESPECIALLY AT CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT THE 00Z OHX
RAOB SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL
NEED TO MOISTEN UP BEFORE PRECIP WILL HIT THE GROUND. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT WET BULBING THINK PROFILE WILL COOL DOWN BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS EXCEPT IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR SURFACE WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY HOVER AROUND FREEZING. THIS SAID WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
AT CLARKSVILLE OR NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX 06Z. SYSTEM EXITS
QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200020
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SYSTEM DOWN ALONG GULF COAST WILL WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD TONIGHT
WITH MID STATE ON NORTHERN FRINGE...NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE MUCH OVER NORTH HALF ESPECIALLY AT CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT THE 00Z OHX
RAOB SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL
NEED TO MOISTEN UP BEFORE PRECIP WILL HIT THE GROUND. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT WET BULBING THINK PROFILE WILL COOL DOWN BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS EXCEPT IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR SURFACE WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY HOVER AROUND FREEZING. THIS SAID WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
AT CLARKSVILLE OR NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX 06Z. SYSTEM EXITS
QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 192108
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OVERNIGHT. MIDDLE TN WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP FIELD. RAW SOUNDINGS KEEP FREEZING
LEVELS GENERALLY WELL ABOVE 700 FT ASL. HOWEVER...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WET BULB
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
THUS...FOR THE FCST...WILL INCLUDE RAIN AND SNOW NORTH THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN SOUTH. THE PRECIP TYPE WILL TREND MORE TOWARD SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS FOR AMOUNTS...THE AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS BY 12Z. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE VERY LIGHT
ACCUM...MAINLY FROM JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE OVER TO THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU. PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE`LL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

IN THE EXT FCST...MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN EXPECTED
FROPA ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
POPS MON NT AND TUES. IN FACT...SHOWALTERS DROP TO NEAR ZERO ON
TUESDAY WITH SOME RETURN OF SFC CAPE. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR
TUES.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN ON WEDNESDAY(XMAS EVE) WITHIN THE
POST FRONTAL SECTOR. IMPULSES ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL ABOUND. THUS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MID STATE. AT THIS
TIME...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
SO I WOULD NOT COUNT ON A WHITE XMAS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD IN THE 30S NORTH...AND PERHAPS REACH THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

THURSDAY(XMAS) AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  47  30  53 /  40  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    28  44  27  52 /  20  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     30  45  29  50 /  50  20  05  10
COLUMBIA       32  48  30  54 /  60  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   33  48  29  54 /  60  10   0  10
WAVERLY        29  45  28  52 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 192108
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OVERNIGHT. MIDDLE TN WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP FIELD. RAW SOUNDINGS KEEP FREEZING
LEVELS GENERALLY WELL ABOVE 700 FT ASL. HOWEVER...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WET BULB
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
THUS...FOR THE FCST...WILL INCLUDE RAIN AND SNOW NORTH THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN SOUTH. THE PRECIP TYPE WILL TREND MORE TOWARD SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS FOR AMOUNTS...THE AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS BY 12Z. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE VERY LIGHT
ACCUM...MAINLY FROM JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE OVER TO THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU. PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE`LL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

IN THE EXT FCST...MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN EXPECTED
FROPA ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
POPS MON NT AND TUES. IN FACT...SHOWALTERS DROP TO NEAR ZERO ON
TUESDAY WITH SOME RETURN OF SFC CAPE. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR
TUES.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN ON WEDNESDAY(XMAS EVE) WITHIN THE
POST FRONTAL SECTOR. IMPULSES ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL ABOUND. THUS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MID STATE. AT THIS
TIME...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
SO I WOULD NOT COUNT ON A WHITE XMAS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD IN THE 30S NORTH...AND PERHAPS REACH THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

THURSDAY(XMAS) AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  47  30  53 /  40  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    28  44  27  52 /  20  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     30  45  29  50 /  50  20  05  10
COLUMBIA       32  48  30  54 /  60  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   33  48  29  54 /  60  10   0  10
WAVERLY        29  45  28  52 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191847
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1247 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AT ALL SITES.
LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHILE LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
CKV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BNA AND CSV COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT SHOWERS...THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE PRECIP DISSIPATES
AND MOVES EAST. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR AT BNA AND CKV...BUT MAY FALL TO MVFR AT CSV AS PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS THIN OUT AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...
CSV WILL BE PESTERED BY PERIODS OF LIFR AND IFR THROUGH 16Z DUE
TO A VARIABLE DECK OF STRATUS WITH BASES BTWN 400 FT AND 900 FT.
MEANWHILE, CKV WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z, DUE TO
HZ, WHILE BNA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BTWN 16Z/19 AND 06Z/20, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREA-WIDE.

AFTER 06Z, YOU CAN EXPECT A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF MIDDLE TN, CONSISTING MAINLY OF -RA, -FZRA AND -IP.
ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR, CIGS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR OR
NEAR-MVFR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191847
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1247 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AT ALL SITES.
LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHILE LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
CKV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BNA AND CSV COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT SHOWERS...THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE PRECIP DISSIPATES
AND MOVES EAST. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR AT BNA AND CKV...BUT MAY FALL TO MVFR AT CSV AS PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS THIN OUT AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...
CSV WILL BE PESTERED BY PERIODS OF LIFR AND IFR THROUGH 16Z DUE
TO A VARIABLE DECK OF STRATUS WITH BASES BTWN 400 FT AND 900 FT.
MEANWHILE, CKV WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z, DUE TO
HZ, WHILE BNA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BTWN 16Z/19 AND 06Z/20, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREA-WIDE.

AFTER 06Z, YOU CAN EXPECT A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF MIDDLE TN, CONSISTING MAINLY OF -RA, -FZRA AND -IP.
ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR, CIGS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR OR
NEAR-MVFR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191100
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CSV WILL BE PESTERED BY PERIODS OF LIFR AND IFR THROUGH 16Z DUE
TO A VARIABLE DECK OF STRATUS WITH BASES BTWN 400 FT AND 900 FT.
MEANWHILE, CKV WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z, DUE TO
HZ, WHILE BNA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BTWN 16Z/19 AND 06Z/20, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREA-WIDE.

AFTER 06Z, YOU CAN EXPECT A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF MIDDLE TN, CONSISTING MAINLY OF -RA, -FZRA AND -IP.
ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR, CIGS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR OR
NEAR-MVFR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191100
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CSV WILL BE PESTERED BY PERIODS OF LIFR AND IFR THROUGH 16Z DUE
TO A VARIABLE DECK OF STRATUS WITH BASES BTWN 400 FT AND 900 FT.
MEANWHILE, CKV WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z, DUE TO
HZ, WHILE BNA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BTWN 16Z/19 AND 06Z/20, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREA-WIDE.

AFTER 06Z, YOU CAN EXPECT A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF MIDDLE TN, CONSISTING MAINLY OF -RA, -FZRA AND -IP.
ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR, CIGS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR OR
NEAR-MVFR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190929
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND EXTENDED DOWN INTO TN THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S. THERE WERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
MAY BREAK UP SOME THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS WILL
BE MOVING IN TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL IN THE UNREMARKABLE 40S.

THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FRUSTRATINGLY BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP
TYPE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY/S
PRECIPITATION...WE EXPECT A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY...WE EXPECT LOW
IMPACTS...WITH LOW QPF ACROSS THE NORTH. NO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN TO PRODUCE SOME ICY SPOTS ON BRIDGES...SO WE WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR SATURDAY PM THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY MAY
BRING SOME WELCOME SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS EDGING A DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE
NORMAL.

BY MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK INTO TN...BRINGING
A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL BRING A SERIES OF WAVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE FIRST WAVE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...BY
TUESDAY.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEEPENING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TN AREA WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN...CHANGING OVER TO A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX. AT THIS TIME...WINTRY TRAVEL IMPACTS LOOK
RELATIVELY LOW FOR MID TN...BUT PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE NORTH
OF TN AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA BY CHRISTMAS. MID
TN WILL SEE DRY WX WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  33  46  30 /  10  50  30   0
CLARKSVILLE    42  30  44  27 /  10  50  20   0
CROSSVILLE     44  32  45  31 /  10  50  40  05
COLUMBIA       46  33  47  31 /  10  60  30   0
LAWRENCEBURG   45  33  48  32 /  10  60  30   0
WAVERLY        43  31  44  29 /  10  50  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 190929
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND EXTENDED DOWN INTO TN THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S. THERE WERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
MAY BREAK UP SOME THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS WILL
BE MOVING IN TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL IN THE UNREMARKABLE 40S.

THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FRUSTRATINGLY BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP
TYPE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY/S
PRECIPITATION...WE EXPECT A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY...WE EXPECT LOW
IMPACTS...WITH LOW QPF ACROSS THE NORTH. NO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN TO PRODUCE SOME ICY SPOTS ON BRIDGES...SO WE WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR SATURDAY PM THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY MAY
BRING SOME WELCOME SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS EDGING A DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE
NORMAL.

BY MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK INTO TN...BRINGING
A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL BRING A SERIES OF WAVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE FIRST WAVE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...BY
TUESDAY.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEEPENING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TN AREA WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN...CHANGING OVER TO A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX. AT THIS TIME...WINTRY TRAVEL IMPACTS LOOK
RELATIVELY LOW FOR MID TN...BUT PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE NORTH
OF TN AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA BY CHRISTMAS. MID
TN WILL SEE DRY WX WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  33  46  30 /  10  50  30   0
CLARKSVILLE    42  30  44  27 /  10  50  20   0
CROSSVILLE     44  32  45  31 /  10  50  40  05
COLUMBIA       46  33  47  31 /  10  60  30   0
LAWRENCEBURG   45  33  48  32 /  10  60  30   0
WAVERLY        43  31  44  29 /  10  50  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 190524
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1124 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS HOLDING
OFF. KCSV HAS CLEARED OUT A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...AND
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE HAD CEILINGS LIFT A BIT. MOST MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ONLY A FEW SUGGEST THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL POP IN. AFTER MID
MORNING TOMORROW THE CONSENSUS IS VFR...SO KEPT THAT IN THE
FORECAST. NEXT ROUND OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD COVER ALMOST THE
ENTIRE EASTERN USA. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...MODEL TIME HEIGHT MOISTURE
PLOTS INSIST IT WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS
UNREASONABLE BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAVE BUMPED UP SKY
COVER AREAWIDE BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AS
WELL AS CURRENT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR TOO COOL AND HAVE RAISED THEM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS. MADE OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS...BUT REST OF FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190524
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1124 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS HOLDING
OFF. KCSV HAS CLEARED OUT A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...AND
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE HAD CEILINGS LIFT A BIT. MOST MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ONLY A FEW SUGGEST THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL POP IN. AFTER MID
MORNING TOMORROW THE CONSENSUS IS VFR...SO KEPT THAT IN THE
FORECAST. NEXT ROUND OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD COVER ALMOST THE
ENTIRE EASTERN USA. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...MODEL TIME HEIGHT MOISTURE
PLOTS INSIST IT WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS
UNREASONABLE BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAVE BUMPED UP SKY
COVER AREAWIDE BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AS
WELL AS CURRENT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR TOO COOL AND HAVE RAISED THEM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS. MADE OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS...BUT REST OF FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities