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000
FXUS64 KOHX 240837
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ITS
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
TRAVERSE MIDDLE TN TODAY...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLOUD COVER RESULTING
FROM IT. WV ALSO SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL STEER A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS MIDDLE TN ON SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND
ACTUALLY WE SHOULD WARM UP IN TEMPS FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND 10 TO 13 DEGREES C. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS THAT WILL RESULT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TODAY AND FROM THE LOW-UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY DESPITE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM-UP AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM SUN INTO MON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST OF MIDDLE TN. REALLY GOOD MIXING AND GUSTY
SW WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. NASHVILLE`S RECORD HIGH FOR MONDAY IS 84 DEGREES
SET WAY BACK IN 1940. WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THAT WITH A FORECAST
OF 83 GOING RIGHT NOW. CROSSVILLE`S RECORD FOR MONDAY IS 81 SET BACK
IN 1963...WITH A FORECAST OF 78 GOING FOR NOW.

AFTER THESE WONDERFUL TEMPS...THE UPPER MIDWEST LOW WILL DROP A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYING OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z EURO
AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT AND
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP. THUS RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARMER TEMPS
STILL FOR TUESDAY WITH THE LAG IN PRECIP EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT FAR OUT. WILL ALSO TRIM BACK THE
INHERITED TUESDAY POPS A TAD AND INCREASE THE CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND...A SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THRS
NIGHT...BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A
RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    69  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     67  44  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       71  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   71  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        70  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 240435 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD ACROSS MID STATE BRING
WITH IT MAINLY BKN AC/CI THRU AROUND 06/08Z W TO 06/12Z E. SOME PASSING
SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 25/06Z. THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THRU 25/06Z. ONLY EXCEPTION
COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL PER PARTICULAR
NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A RESULT...WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS 24/09Z-24/14Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 916 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS EVENING.
NO PRECIP IS OCCURRING BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEATURE. FOR THE UPDATE...THE
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT CHANGES WITH THE TEXT BASED
UPDATES. AT ANY RATE...WILL RESEND PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RATHER QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING WITH IT MAINLY BKN
CI THRU 06/12Z-06/14Z. SOME PASSING SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL
PER PARTICULAR NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS
24/09Z-24/14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 240216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS EVENING.
NO PRECIP IS OCCURRING BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEATURE. FOR THE UPDATE...THE
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT CHANGES WITH THE TEXT BASED
UPDATES. AT ANY RATE...WILL RESEND PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RATHER QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING WITH IT MAINLY BKN
CI THRU 06/12Z-06/14Z. SOME PASSING SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL
PER PARTICULAR NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS
24/09Z-24/14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 240216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS EVENING.
NO PRECIP IS OCCURRING BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEATURE. FOR THE UPDATE...THE
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT CHANGES WITH THE TEXT BASED
UPDATES. AT ANY RATE...WILL RESEND PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RATHER QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING WITH IT MAINLY BKN
CI THRU 06/12Z-06/14Z. SOME PASSING SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL
PER PARTICULAR NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS
24/09Z-24/14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 232344 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RATHER QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING WITH IT MAINLY BKN
CI THRU 06/12Z-06/14Z. SOME PASSING SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL
PER PARTICULAR NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS
24/09Z-24/14Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 232038
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  69  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    42  69  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     41  67  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       42  69  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   43  70  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        42  70  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 231658
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDINESS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN VFR. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG ONCE AGAIN AT CKV. ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR
VFR WX THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

MORNING UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE FROST ADVISORY AND REMOVE FROST
WORDING FROM THE ZONES. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK. UPDATE OUT IN A
FEW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...RESULTING IN FROST AND/OR FOG. IFR-MVFR FOG WILL
AFFECT CKV ON AND OFF THROUGH 14Z. BUT THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO FORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. LOOKS LIKE CSV WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG SO WENT IFR THERE TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
VSBYS ELSEWHERE FOR LATE IN THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 231658
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDINESS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN VFR. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG ONCE AGAIN AT CKV. ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR
VFR WX THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

MORNING UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE FROST ADVISORY AND REMOVE FROST
WORDING FROM THE ZONES. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK. UPDATE OUT IN A
FEW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...RESULTING IN FROST AND/OR FOG. IFR-MVFR FOG WILL
AFFECT CKV ON AND OFF THROUGH 14Z. BUT THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO FORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. LOOKS LIKE CSV WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG SO WENT IFR THERE TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
VSBYS ELSEWHERE FOR LATE IN THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 231303
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
803 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.MORNING UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE FROST ADVISORY AND REMOVE FROST
WORDING FROM THE ZONES. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK. UPDATE OUT IN A
FEW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...RESULTING IN FROST AND/OR FOG. IFR-MVFR FOG WILL
AFFECT CKV ON AND OFF THROUGH 14Z. BUT THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO FORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. LOOKS LIKE CSV WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG SO WENT IFR THERE TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
VSBYS ELSEWHERE FOR LATE IN THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 231147
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...RESULTING IN FROST AND/OR FOG. IFR-MVFR FOG WILL
AFFECT CKV ON AND OFF THROUGH 14Z. BUT THEREAFTER...ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO FORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. LOOKS LIKE CSV WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG SO WENT IFR THERE TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
VSBYS ELSEWHERE FOR LATE IN THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE TAKING OVER FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST.  WITH THE LOSS OF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES EXPECTED...WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST AROUND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  HOPEFULLY EVERYONE WITH SENSITIVE
VEGETATION HAS TAKEN THE PROPER PROTECTIVE PRECAUTIONS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS IT
DOES...A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND A OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE THE CULPRIT IN KEEPING US IN THE MID 40S
TONIGHT AND NEGATE ANY CONCERNS FOR A SECOND NIGHT OF FROST.

STARTING FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR...WE WILL START TO SEE
A CONSIDERABLE WARM UP AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
THICKNESS VALUES AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY 9-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALSO...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO CREEP TOWARDS 60 DEGREES.  THIS IS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT EITHER WAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISE IN THE REGION.  HAVE BUMPED POPS
AND INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS REASON.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS A WELL-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SPARKS
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A DECENT COLD FRONT INTO THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 230834
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
334 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE TAKING OVER FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST.  WITH THE LOSS OF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES EXPECTED...WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST AROUND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  HOPEFULLY EVERYONE WITH SENSITIVE
VEGETATION HAS TAKEN THE PROPER PROTECTIVE PRECAUTIONS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS IT
DOES...A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND A OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE THE CULPRIT IN KEEPING US IN THE MID 40S
TONIGHT AND NEGATE ANY CONCERNS FOR A SECOND NIGHT OF FROST.

STARTING FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR...WE WILL START TO SEE
A CONSIDERABLE WARM UP AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
THICKNESS VALUES AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY 9-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALSO...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO CREEP TOWARDS 60 DEGREES.  THIS IS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT EITHER WAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISE IN THE REGION.  HAVE BUMPED POPS
AND INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS REASON.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS A WELL-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SPARKS
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A DECENT COLD FRONT INTO THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 24/06Z WITH LIGHT NELY
SFC WINDS EXPECTED. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPLAINED...CKV/CSV DID NOT
EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH NOT MUCH
OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU THIS PORTION OF
FORECAST PERIOD...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION COULD
STILL POSSIBLY PER USUAL LOCAL AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THESE CHANCES TO BE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A
FM/TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AFTER 24/00Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT
TO AVIATION OPERATIONS EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC THRU
24/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  43  71  50 /   0   0  10   0
CROSSVILLE     63  42  66  45 /   0   0  10   0
COLUMBIA       65  42  70  48 /   0   0  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  44  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
WAVERLY        67  44  72  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 230433 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVAITION DISCUSSION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 24/06Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPLAINED...CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED
THRU THIS PORTION OF FORECAST PERIOD...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION
COULD STILL POSSIBLY PER USUAL LOCAL AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THESE CHANCES TO BE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FM/TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AFTER 24/00Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS
EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC THRU 24/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 230433 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVAITION DISCUSSION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 24/06Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPLAINED...CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED
THRU THIS PORTION OF FORECAST PERIOD...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION
COULD STILL POSSIBLY PER USUAL LOCAL AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THESE CHANCES TO BE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FM/TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AFTER 24/00Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS
EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC THRU 24/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222349 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222349 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222218 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222218 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221858
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    39  64  43  69 /   0   0   0  10
CROSSVILLE     37  62  41  65 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       38  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   39  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        38  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
BOYD
01








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221805
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
105 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CATEGORIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN...WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KCKV AND KCSV EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. KEPT BOTH
KCKV AND KCSV AT MVFR FOG FOR NOW.

BARNWELL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221448
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
948 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
STILL HAVE BROKEN LOW DECK ALONG UPPER CUMBERLAND THAT IS TRYING TO
SCATTER OUT BUT TAKING ITS TIME. THIS DECK ON BACK SIDE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE BEING A COOL FETCH FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TODAY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. AM CONSIDERING A FROST ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT WANT TO GET A LOOK AT SOME NEW
MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION. LOOKS LIKE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. WILL
TRY AND DECIDE BEFORE NOON TODAY AND GET PRODUCT OUT BY THEN OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221140
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
640 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FEW MVFR CLOUD HAVE ADVECTED ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS
MORNING WHICH IS GIVING KCSV SOME MVFR CIGS. THESE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE. QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FROST. THIS MIGHT NEGATE THE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY SOME IFR FOG FOR NOW AT KCKV AS
TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR FOG INSTEAD OF FROST.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL EXIT THE CONUS TODAY ALLOWING FOR SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LOW TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS SOME MID 30 TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS EAST OF I-65 AND ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS NEAREST
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER DRY UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA THEN. THEREAFTER UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR HIGHS SAT AND SUN...AND
EVEN NEARING 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY. COULD BE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY ALSO...AS BOTH DAYS SHOW AN INCREASED SWRLY FLOW. AT THE
VERY LEAST MON-TUE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH GUSTY SW WINDS
AND WITH THAT GREAT OF WARM AIR-ADVECTION...WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE MEXMOS SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE WARMUP.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW TROUGHING
OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PUSH EAST AND BREAK DOWN OUR HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. BUT WITH THE
SFC LOW PUSHING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
SQUEAK OUT MUCH MOISTURE. LEFT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY THAT
FAR OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220801
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL EXIT THE CONUS TODAY ALLOWING FOR SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LOW TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS SOME MID 30 TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS EAST OF I-65 AND ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS NEAREST
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER DRY UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA THEN. THEREAFTER UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR HIGHS SAT AND SUN...AND
EVEN NEARING 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY. COULD BE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY ALSO...AS BOTH DAYS SHOW AN INCREASED SWRLY FLOW. AT THE
VERY LEAST MON-TUE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH GUSTY SW WINDS
AND WITH THAT GREAT OF WARM AIR-ADVECTION...WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE MEXMOS SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE WARMUP.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW TROUGHING
OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PUSH EAST AND BREAK DOWN OUR HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. BUT WITH THE
SFC LOW PUSHING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
SQUEAK OUT MUCH MOISTURE. LEFT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY THAT
FAR OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  40  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    63  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     59  35  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       65  36  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        65  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220430 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
23/06Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO NE WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME VFR CEILINGS FOR CSV
PER LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NE AND TEMPO LOW END MVFR
TO HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL
22/09Z-22/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID STATE. CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER DOES EXIST
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CLOUDS A
SMALL BIT ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOUTHWARD SFC RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER
OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220430 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
23/06Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO NE WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME VFR CEILINGS FOR CSV
PER LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NE AND TEMPO LOW END MVFR
TO HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL
22/09Z-22/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID STATE. CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER DOES EXIST
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CLOUDS A
SMALL BIT ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOUTHWARD SFC RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER
OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220246
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID STATE. CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER DOES EXIST
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CLOUDS A
SMALL BIT ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOUTHWARD SFC RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER
OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220246
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID STATE. CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER DOES EXIST
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CLOUDS A
SMALL BIT ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOUTHWARD SFC RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER
OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 212343 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH PREDOMINANT SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS MID STATE THRU
22/24Z...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY LIGHT SFC N TO
NE WINDS. ONLY EXPECTION TO THIS WILL BE TEMPO LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS AT CKV/CSV PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TRENDS AND TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL 22/09Z-22/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211858
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EARLIER THINKING IN THE MID 60S PLATEAU TO LOW 70S WEST. SOME
STRATOCU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND...AND
A BIT OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT. UNLIKE THIS MORNING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SPECTACULAR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN STORE.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
AN H5 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALTHOUGH ONLY LOW POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      42  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    41  64  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     39  59  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       42  65  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   42  66  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        42  65  38  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
103 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
RATHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW DOWN INTO KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE KEEPING STRATOCU ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. SOME OF THIS GETTING A LITTLE
HELP DIURNALLY FROM SURFACE HEATING. LOOKING AT VFR NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND BUT COULD SEE MVFR LATE NIGHT AT CROSSVILLE DUE TO FOG.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01








000
FXUS64 KOHX 211504
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF PATCHY FOG STILL REMAINS
ON THE TN RIVER BUT OTHERWISE HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT SOME LOW CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF KY TOWARDS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S PLATEAU TO MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS COVERED AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GRIDS AND ZONES.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211504
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF PATCHY FOG STILL REMAINS
ON THE TN RIVER BUT OTHERWISE HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT SOME LOW CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF KY TOWARDS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S PLATEAU TO MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS COVERED AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GRIDS AND ZONES.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






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