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000
FXUS64 KOHX 031704
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND
ONLY FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE LIGHT FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AT CKV. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE IS A FAR OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRECLUSION
FROM PREVAILING LINES.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    68  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     68  86  67  85 /  10  20  10  40
COLUMBIA       69  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   69  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
WAVERLY        68  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031704
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND
ONLY FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE LIGHT FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AT CKV. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE IS A FAR OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRECLUSION
FROM PREVAILING LINES.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    68  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     68  86  67  85 /  10  20  10  40
COLUMBIA       69  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   69  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
WAVERLY        68  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031704
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND
ONLY FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE LIGHT FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AT CKV. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE IS A FAR OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRECLUSION
FROM PREVAILING LINES.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    68  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     68  86  67  85 /  10  20  10  40
COLUMBIA       69  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   69  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
WAVERLY        68  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031704
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

BNA/CKV/CSV...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND
ONLY FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE LIGHT FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AT CKV. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE IS A FAR OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRECLUSION
FROM PREVAILING LINES.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    68  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     68  86  67  85 /  10  20  10  40
COLUMBIA       69  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   69  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
WAVERLY        68  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031059
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE IS A FAR OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRECLUSION
FROM PREVAILING LINES.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031059
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE IS A FAR OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRECLUSION
FROM PREVAILING LINES.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031059
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE IS A FAR OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRECLUSION
FROM PREVAILING LINES.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030800
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
300 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/08Z-03/14Z PER BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A "DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 04/06Z.
CALM TO LIGHT SFC N/NE WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE 03/18Z-04/01Z ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  71  93  71  92 /  10   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  92  68  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     87  68  86  67  85 /  20  10  20  10  40
COLUMBIA       92  69  92  69  92 /  20   0  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   91  68  92  68  91 /  20   0  10  10  20
WAVERLY        92  68  92  69  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........27
LONG TERM..................06




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030800
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
300 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/08Z-03/14Z PER BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A "DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 04/06Z.
CALM TO LIGHT SFC N/NE WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE 03/18Z-04/01Z ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  71  93  71  92 /  10   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  92  68  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     87  68  86  67  85 /  20  10  20  10  40
COLUMBIA       92  69  92  69  92 /  20   0  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   91  68  92  68  91 /  20   0  10  10  20
WAVERLY        92  68  92  69  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........27
LONG TERM..................06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 030431 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/08Z-03/14Z PER BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A "DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 04/06Z.
CALM TO LIGHT SFC N/NE WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE 03/18Z-04/01Z ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
CONTINUED TO PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/04Z-03/13Z
PER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE..."DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/24Z. CALM TO
LIGHT SFC NLY WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 030431 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/08Z-03/14Z PER BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A "DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 04/06Z.
CALM TO LIGHT SFC N/NE WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE 03/18Z-04/01Z ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
CONTINUED TO PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/04Z-03/13Z
PER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE..."DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/24Z. CALM TO
LIGHT SFC NLY WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030431 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/08Z-03/14Z PER BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A "DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 04/06Z.
CALM TO LIGHT SFC N/NE WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE 03/18Z-04/01Z ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
CONTINUED TO PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/04Z-03/13Z
PER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE..."DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/24Z. CALM TO
LIGHT SFC NLY WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 022345 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/04Z-03/13Z
PER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE..."DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/24Z. CALM TO
LIGHT SFC NLY WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 022345 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/04Z-03/13Z
PER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE..."DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/24Z. CALM TO
LIGHT SFC NLY WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 022345 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/04Z-03/13Z
PER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE..."DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/24Z. CALM TO
LIGHT SFC NLY WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 022345 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/04Z-03/13Z
PER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE..."DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/24Z. CALM TO
LIGHT SFC NLY WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
PRECLUDED MENTION IN TAF FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 022329
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. ONCE IT
DIMINISHES...WILL RERUN THE ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION
OUT. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 022329
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. ONCE IT
DIMINISHES...WILL RERUN THE ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION
OUT. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 022329
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. ONCE IT
DIMINISHES...WILL RERUN THE ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION
OUT. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 022329
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. ONCE IT
DIMINISHES...WILL RERUN THE ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE THE CONVECTION
OUT. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 022049
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 022049
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR PINHEAD SHOWERS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNDOWN.

BOYD


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 021926
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 021926
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. I DO SEE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAY DO NOTHING TO
BRING ABOUT CONVECTION WITH SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER LEVELS. SO
LOOK FOR BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
MOISTURE FINALLY DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPS WILL STAY
WARM AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 021735
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR AND, PERHAPS, BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR (DUE TO BR) AT BOTH CKV AND CSV LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 021735
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR AND, PERHAPS, BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR (DUE TO BR) AT BOTH CKV AND CSV LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       70  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   70  90  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        71  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 021213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...YET
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS UPON US. A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE VERY
ISOLATED THE REST OF THE MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY WORDING BUT
IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.

AS WE HAVE ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE REMAIN IN A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THIS PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS. THE ONLY WRENCH THAT COULD BE THROWN INTO THE FORECAST
WOULD BE THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/ WHEN THE GFS WANTS TO
BRING AN EASTERN WAVE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT MOST...THIS
WOULD INDICATE A PUSH OF POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AREA-
WIDE...BUT WITH THE EURO NOT SHOWING THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE...WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST KEEPING POPS IN THE 20-30
RANGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY...WITH
CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS
WEEKEND COULD BECOME STRONG...BUT WITH THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZATION...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THIS WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MID-STATE...WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO...THERE PROBABLY
WOULDN`T BE MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH IT ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR FOG OVER KCSV AND KCKV WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR KCSV AND KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06
LONG TERM..................27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 021213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...YET
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS UPON US. A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE VERY
ISOLATED THE REST OF THE MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY WORDING BUT
IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.

AS WE HAVE ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE REMAIN IN A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THIS PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS. THE ONLY WRENCH THAT COULD BE THROWN INTO THE FORECAST
WOULD BE THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/ WHEN THE GFS WANTS TO
BRING AN EASTERN WAVE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT MOST...THIS
WOULD INDICATE A PUSH OF POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AREA-
WIDE...BUT WITH THE EURO NOT SHOWING THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE...WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST KEEPING POPS IN THE 20-30
RANGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY...WITH
CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS
WEEKEND COULD BECOME STRONG...BUT WITH THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZATION...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THIS WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MID-STATE...WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO...THERE PROBABLY
WOULDN`T BE MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH IT ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR FOG OVER KCSV AND KCKV WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR KCSV AND KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06
LONG TERM..................27




000
FXUS64 KOHX 021213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...YET
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS UPON US. A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE VERY
ISOLATED THE REST OF THE MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY WORDING BUT
IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.

AS WE HAVE ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE REMAIN IN A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THIS PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS. THE ONLY WRENCH THAT COULD BE THROWN INTO THE FORECAST
WOULD BE THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/ WHEN THE GFS WANTS TO
BRING AN EASTERN WAVE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT MOST...THIS
WOULD INDICATE A PUSH OF POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AREA-
WIDE...BUT WITH THE EURO NOT SHOWING THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE...WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST KEEPING POPS IN THE 20-30
RANGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY...WITH
CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS
WEEKEND COULD BECOME STRONG...BUT WITH THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZATION...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THIS WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MID-STATE...WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO...THERE PROBABLY
WOULDN`T BE MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH IT ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR FOG OVER KCSV AND KCKV WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR KCSV AND KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06
LONG TERM..................27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 021213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...YET
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS UPON US. A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE VERY
ISOLATED THE REST OF THE MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY WORDING BUT
IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.

AS WE HAVE ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE REMAIN IN A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THIS PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS. THE ONLY WRENCH THAT COULD BE THROWN INTO THE FORECAST
WOULD BE THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/ WHEN THE GFS WANTS TO
BRING AN EASTERN WAVE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT MOST...THIS
WOULD INDICATE A PUSH OF POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AREA-
WIDE...BUT WITH THE EURO NOT SHOWING THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE...WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST KEEPING POPS IN THE 20-30
RANGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY...WITH
CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS
WEEKEND COULD BECOME STRONG...BUT WITH THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZATION...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THIS WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MID-STATE...WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO...THERE PROBABLY
WOULDN`T BE MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH IT ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR FOG OVER KCSV AND KCKV WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR KCSV AND KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06
LONG TERM..................27




000
FXUS64 KOHX 020752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...YET
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS UPON US. A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE VERY
ISOLATED THE REST OF THE MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY WORDING BUT
IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.

AS WE HAVE ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE REMAIN IN A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THIS PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS. THE ONLY WRENCH THAT COULD BE THROWN INTO THE FORECAST
WOULD BE THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/ WHEN THE GFS WANTS TO
BRING AN EASTERN WAVE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT MOST...THIS
WOULD INDICATE A PUSH OF POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AREA-
WIDE...BUT WITH THE EURO NOT SHOWING THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE...WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST KEEPING POPS IN THE 20-30
RANGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY...WITH
CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS
WEEKEND COULD BECOME STRONG...BUT WITH THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZATION...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THIS WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MID-STATE...WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO...THERE PROBABLY
WOULDN`T BE MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH IT ANYWAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG CKV/CSV PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL AND CALM WINDS 02/06Z-02/14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/06Z. DIURNAL
BASED SCT CU TO SCT/BKN AC DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY
02/16Z-03/02Z. GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS
SHIFTING TO PREDOMINATE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  71  92  71  91 /  10   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  90  68  90 /  10   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     86  68  85  67  85 /  10   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       90  69  91  68  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   89  68  91  68  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        91  69  91  68  91 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 020752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...YET
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS UPON US. A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE VERY
ISOLATED THE REST OF THE MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY WORDING BUT
IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.

AS WE HAVE ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE REMAIN IN A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THIS PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS. THE ONLY WRENCH THAT COULD BE THROWN INTO THE FORECAST
WOULD BE THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/ WHEN THE GFS WANTS TO
BRING AN EASTERN WAVE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT MOST...THIS
WOULD INDICATE A PUSH OF POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AREA-
WIDE...BUT WITH THE EURO NOT SHOWING THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE...WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST KEEPING POPS IN THE 20-30
RANGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY...WITH
CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS
WEEKEND COULD BECOME STRONG...BUT WITH THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZATION...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THIS WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MID-STATE...WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO...THERE PROBABLY
WOULDN`T BE MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH IT ANYWAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG CKV/CSV PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL AND CALM WINDS 02/06Z-02/14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/06Z. DIURNAL
BASED SCT CU TO SCT/BKN AC DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY
02/16Z-03/02Z. GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS
SHIFTING TO PREDOMINATE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  71  92  71  91 /  10   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  90  68  90 /  10   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     86  68  85  67  85 /  10   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       90  69  91  68  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   89  68  91  68  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        91  69  91  68  91 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 020458 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG CKV/CSV PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL AND CALM WINDS 02/06Z-02/14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/06Z. DIURNAL BASED SCT CU
TO SCT/BKN AC DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY 02/16Z-03/02Z. GENERALLY
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO PREDOMINATE LIGHT
N/NE BY 03/00Z...THEN BECOMING CALM AFTERWARDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY CALM OVERNIGHT IS AT HAND. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY DID
MANAGE TO PRODUCE AN ISOL SHORT LIVED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO. UPPER
RIDGING...HOWEVER...SHOULD WIN OUT WITH A TRANQUIL NIGHT AHEAD.

DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE SFC HUMIDITY. WILL OPT TO ADHERE TO THE ISC
SOURCE AND BRING SOME PATCHY FOG IN DURING THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME
PERIOD.

REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 020458 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG CKV/CSV PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL AND CALM WINDS 02/06Z-02/14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/06Z. DIURNAL BASED SCT CU
TO SCT/BKN AC DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY 02/16Z-03/02Z. GENERALLY
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO PREDOMINATE LIGHT
N/NE BY 03/00Z...THEN BECOMING CALM AFTERWARDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY CALM OVERNIGHT IS AT HAND. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY DID
MANAGE TO PRODUCE AN ISOL SHORT LIVED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO. UPPER
RIDGING...HOWEVER...SHOULD WIN OUT WITH A TRANQUIL NIGHT AHEAD.

DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE SFC HUMIDITY. WILL OPT TO ADHERE TO THE ISC
SOURCE AND BRING SOME PATCHY FOG IN DURING THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME
PERIOD.

REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 020004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY CALM OVERNIGHT IS AT HAND. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY DID
MANAGE TO PRODUCE AN ISOL SHORT LIVED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO. UPPER
RIDGING...HOWEVER...SHOULD WIN OUT WITH A TRANQUIL NIGHT AHEAD.

DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE SFC HUMIDITY. WILL OPT TO ADHERE TO THE ISC
SOURCE AND BRING SOME PATCHY FOG IN DURING THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME
PERIOD.

REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 020004 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG CKV/CSV PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL AND CALM WINDS 02/04Z-02/14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI THRU 02/24Z. DIURNAL BASED SCT CU TO SCT/BKN AC
DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY 02/16Z-02/24Z. GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO PREDOMINATE LIGHT N/NE BY 02/24Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011942
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011942
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011942
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011942
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011836
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
136 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS
IN SPITE OF AN INCH AND A HALF PRECIPITABLE WATER HARD TO FIND
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HERE IN
THE MID STATE. MODELS SHOW GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE
SO THINK EVEN DIURNAL LOOKS UNLIKELY. UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND
OVER INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECITON TIED TO IT IS TRYING
TO LIFT A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

AM EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MUCH AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED IN FORECASTS.

&&


.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011836
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
136 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS
IN SPITE OF AN INCH AND A HALF PRECIPITABLE WATER HARD TO FIND
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HERE IN
THE MID STATE. MODELS SHOW GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE
SO THINK EVEN DIURNAL LOOKS UNLIKELY. UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND
OVER INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECITON TIED TO IT IS TRYING
TO LIFT A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

AM EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MUCH AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED IN FORECASTS.

&&


.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011836
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
136 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS
IN SPITE OF AN INCH AND A HALF PRECIPITABLE WATER HARD TO FIND
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HERE IN
THE MID STATE. MODELS SHOW GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE
SO THINK EVEN DIURNAL LOOKS UNLIKELY. UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND
OVER INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECITON TIED TO IT IS TRYING
TO LIFT A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

AM EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MUCH AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED IN FORECASTS.

&&


.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011530
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1030 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS HEADING FOR THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AREAWIDE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER...MAINLY ON THE PLATEAU...BUT CHANCE IS FAR TOO REMOTE FOR
A POP MENTION.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

FOG IS CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR AT KCSV AND KCKV...WITH EVEN QUARTER
MILE VIS REPORTED AT KCKV THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD LAST UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR SO...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG OBSERVATIONS...
THINGS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ANY MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DEGREES
EACH DAY.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL PUT US INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.  IN RESPONSE...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO BOOST POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND WHILE
THIS REMAINS ONLY A CHANCE POP...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH AND EAST EACH AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH SMALL
POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  67  85 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   69  90  69  90 /   0  10   0  20
WAVERLY        68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011530
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1030 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS HEADING FOR THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AREAWIDE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER...MAINLY ON THE PLATEAU...BUT CHANCE IS FAR TOO REMOTE FOR
A POP MENTION.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

FOG IS CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR AT KCSV AND KCKV...WITH EVEN QUARTER
MILE VIS REPORTED AT KCKV THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD LAST UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR SO...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG OBSERVATIONS...
THINGS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ANY MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DEGREES
EACH DAY.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL PUT US INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.  IN RESPONSE...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO BOOST POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND WHILE
THIS REMAINS ONLY A CHANCE POP...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH AND EAST EACH AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH SMALL
POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  67  85 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   69  90  69  90 /   0  10   0  20
WAVERLY        68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011530
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1030 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS HEADING FOR THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AREAWIDE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER...MAINLY ON THE PLATEAU...BUT CHANCE IS FAR TOO REMOTE FOR
A POP MENTION.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

FOG IS CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR AT KCSV AND KCKV...WITH EVEN QUARTER
MILE VIS REPORTED AT KCKV THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD LAST UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR SO...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG OBSERVATIONS...
THINGS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ANY MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DEGREES
EACH DAY.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL PUT US INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.  IN RESPONSE...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO BOOST POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND WHILE
THIS REMAINS ONLY A CHANCE POP...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH AND EAST EACH AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH SMALL
POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  67  85 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   69  90  69  90 /   0  10   0  20
WAVERLY        68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011530
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1030 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS HEADING FOR THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AREAWIDE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER...MAINLY ON THE PLATEAU...BUT CHANCE IS FAR TOO REMOTE FOR
A POP MENTION.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

FOG IS CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR AT KCSV AND KCKV...WITH EVEN QUARTER
MILE VIS REPORTED AT KCKV THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD LAST UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR SO...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG OBSERVATIONS...
THINGS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ANY MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DEGREES
EACH DAY.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL PUT US INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.  IN RESPONSE...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO BOOST POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND WHILE
THIS REMAINS ONLY A CHANCE POP...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH AND EAST EACH AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH SMALL
POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  93  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     67  86  67  85 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   69  90  69  90 /   0  10   0  20
WAVERLY        68  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

FOG IS CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR AT KCSV AND KCKV...WITH EVEN QUARTER
MILE VIS REPORTED AT KCKV THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD LAST UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR SO...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG OBSERVATIONS...
THINGS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ANY MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DEGREES
EACH DAY.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL PUT US INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.  IN RESPONSE...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO BOOST POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND WHILE
THIS REMAINS ONLY A CHANCE POP...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH AND EAST EACH AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH SMALL
POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

UNGER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  70  93  71 /  10   0  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    90  68  92  69 /  10   0  10   0
CROSSVILLE     85  67  86  67 /  10   0  10   0
COLUMBIA       90  68  92  69 /  10   0  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   88  69  90  69 /  10   0  10   0
WAVERLY        90  68  92  69 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

FOG IS CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR AT KCSV AND KCKV...WITH EVEN QUARTER
MILE VIS REPORTED AT KCKV THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD LAST UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR SO...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG OBSERVATIONS...
THINGS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ANY MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DEGREES
EACH DAY.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL PUT US INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.  IN RESPONSE...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO BOOST POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND WHILE
THIS REMAINS ONLY A CHANCE POP...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH AND EAST EACH AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH SMALL
POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

UNGER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  70  93  71 /  10   0  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    90  68  92  69 /  10   0  10   0
CROSSVILLE     85  67  86  67 /  10   0  10   0
COLUMBIA       90  68  92  69 /  10   0  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   88  69  90  69 /  10   0  10   0
WAVERLY        90  68  92  69 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 010805
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
305 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG OBSERVATIONS...
THINGS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ANY MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DEGREES
EACH DAY.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL PUT US INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.  IN RESPONSE...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO BOOST POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND WHILE
THIS REMAINS ONLY A CHANCE POP...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH AND EAST EACH AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH SMALL
POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  70  93  71  93 /  10   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    90  68  92  69  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     85  67  86  67  85 /  10   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       90  68  92  69  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   89  67  91  68  90 /  10   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        90  68  92  69  91 /  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 010805
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
305 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG OBSERVATIONS...
THINGS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ANY MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DEGREES
EACH DAY.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL PUT US INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.  IN RESPONSE...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO BOOST POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND WHILE
THIS REMAINS ONLY A CHANCE POP...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH AND EAST EACH AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH SMALL
POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  70  93  71  93 /  10   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    90  68  92  69  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     85  67  86  67  85 /  10   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       90  68  92  69  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   89  67  91  68  90 /  10   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        90  68  92  69  91 /  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 010438
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AS NO ISOL ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE...WONT MAKE ANY GRID
CHANGES. THE FORMATTER WILL REMOVE THE EARLY EVENING WORDING IN
REGARD TO THE CONVECTION. OTW...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 010438
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AS NO ISOL ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE...WONT MAKE ANY GRID
CHANGES. THE FORMATTER WILL REMOVE THE EARLY EVENING WORDING IN
REGARD TO THE CONVECTION. OTW...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 010438
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AS NO ISOL ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE...WONT MAKE ANY GRID
CHANGES. THE FORMATTER WILL REMOVE THE EARLY EVENING WORDING IN
REGARD TO THE CONVECTION. OTW...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 010438
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AS NO ISOL ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE...WONT MAKE ANY GRID
CHANGES. THE FORMATTER WILL REMOVE THE EARLY EVENING WORDING IN
REGARD TO THE CONVECTION. OTW...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 010213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
913 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AS NO ISOL ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE...WONT MAKE ANY GRID
CHANGES. THE FORMATTER WILL REMOVE THE EARLY EVENING WORDING IN
REGARD TO THE CONVECTION. OTW...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 010213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
913 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AS NO ISOL ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE...WONT MAKE ANY GRID
CHANGES. THE FORMATTER WILL REMOVE THE EARLY EVENING WORDING IN
REGARD TO THE CONVECTION. OTW...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 010213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
913 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AS NO ISOL ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE...WONT MAKE ANY GRID
CHANGES. THE FORMATTER WILL REMOVE THE EARLY EVENING WORDING IN
REGARD TO THE CONVECTION. OTW...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 010213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
913 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AS NO ISOL ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE...WONT MAKE ANY GRID
CHANGES. THE FORMATTER WILL REMOVE THE EARLY EVENING WORDING IN
REGARD TO THE CONVECTION. OTW...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 312328
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 312328
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THIS TAF PD. SOME LIGHT
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AS RATHER HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 312006
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER




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