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000
FXUS64 KOHX 241150
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP QUITE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND HAVING GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS FOR KCKV AND KBNA. KCSV WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. KCSV MAY ALSO HAVE WINDS
PICK UP A BIT TO MATCH THE OTHER TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
SHOULD BUILD IN TODAY BUT REMAIN AT VFR. SOME MODELS INDICATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT ARE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW JUST HAVE VCSH
MENTION AT KCKV THIS EVENING AS INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TODAY WILL START THE
BEGINNING OF A MUCH WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION AS
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GETS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. LLJ PROGGED BY
GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN TO 30 KTS TODAY AND UP TO 45 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
WITH PWATS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE BY
THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 80S
TODAY...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LLJ WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
TO THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SO BOATERS ON AREA LAKES AND
RIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AS GUSTS WILL REACH TO AROUND 30
MPH AT TIMES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS AN
INTENSE SHORTWAVE ALOFT CREATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WHICH GUIDANCE SPREADS ACROSS OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. ANOTHER INTENSE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO MODERATE CAPE LEVELS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND
40 KTS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
WEAKEN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMPT
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE. EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS SHOW A TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO JUNE...SO PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND WET AS WE HEAD INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 241150
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP QUITE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND HAVING GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS FOR KCKV AND KBNA. KCSV WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. KCSV MAY ALSO HAVE WINDS
PICK UP A BIT TO MATCH THE OTHER TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
SHOULD BUILD IN TODAY BUT REMAIN AT VFR. SOME MODELS INDICATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT ARE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW JUST HAVE VCSH
MENTION AT KCKV THIS EVENING AS INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TODAY WILL START THE
BEGINNING OF A MUCH WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION AS
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GETS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. LLJ PROGGED BY
GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN TO 30 KTS TODAY AND UP TO 45 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
WITH PWATS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE BY
THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 80S
TODAY...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LLJ WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
TO THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SO BOATERS ON AREA LAKES AND
RIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AS GUSTS WILL REACH TO AROUND 30
MPH AT TIMES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS AN
INTENSE SHORTWAVE ALOFT CREATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WHICH GUIDANCE SPREADS ACROSS OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. ANOTHER INTENSE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO MODERATE CAPE LEVELS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND
40 KTS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
WEAKEN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMPT
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE. EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS SHOW A TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO JUNE...SO PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND WET AS WE HEAD INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 241150
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP QUITE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND HAVING GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS FOR KCKV AND KBNA. KCSV WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. KCSV MAY ALSO HAVE WINDS
PICK UP A BIT TO MATCH THE OTHER TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
SHOULD BUILD IN TODAY BUT REMAIN AT VFR. SOME MODELS INDICATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT ARE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW JUST HAVE VCSH
MENTION AT KCKV THIS EVENING AS INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TODAY WILL START THE
BEGINNING OF A MUCH WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION AS
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GETS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. LLJ PROGGED BY
GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN TO 30 KTS TODAY AND UP TO 45 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
WITH PWATS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE BY
THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 80S
TODAY...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LLJ WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
TO THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SO BOATERS ON AREA LAKES AND
RIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AS GUSTS WILL REACH TO AROUND 30
MPH AT TIMES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS AN
INTENSE SHORTWAVE ALOFT CREATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WHICH GUIDANCE SPREADS ACROSS OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. ANOTHER INTENSE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO MODERATE CAPE LEVELS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND
40 KTS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
WEAKEN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMPT
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE. EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS SHOW A TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO JUNE...SO PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND WET AS WE HEAD INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 241150
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP QUITE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND HAVING GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS FOR KCKV AND KBNA. KCSV WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. KCSV MAY ALSO HAVE WINDS
PICK UP A BIT TO MATCH THE OTHER TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
SHOULD BUILD IN TODAY BUT REMAIN AT VFR. SOME MODELS INDICATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT ARE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW JUST HAVE VCSH
MENTION AT KCKV THIS EVENING AS INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TODAY WILL START THE
BEGINNING OF A MUCH WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION AS
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GETS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. LLJ PROGGED BY
GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN TO 30 KTS TODAY AND UP TO 45 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
WITH PWATS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE BY
THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 80S
TODAY...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LLJ WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
TO THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SO BOATERS ON AREA LAKES AND
RIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AS GUSTS WILL REACH TO AROUND 30
MPH AT TIMES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS AN
INTENSE SHORTWAVE ALOFT CREATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WHICH GUIDANCE SPREADS ACROSS OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. ANOTHER INTENSE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO MODERATE CAPE LEVELS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND
40 KTS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
WEAKEN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMPT
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE. EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS SHOW A TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO JUNE...SO PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND WET AS WE HEAD INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 240811
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
311 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TODAY WILL START THE
BEGINNING OF A MUCH WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION AS
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GETS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. LLJ PROGGED BY
GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN TO 30 KTS TODAY AND UP TO 45 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
WITH PWATS RISING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE BY
THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 80S
TODAY...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG LLJ WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
TO THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SO BOATERS ON AREA LAKES AND
RIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AS GUSTS WILL REACH TO AROUND 30
MPH AT TIMES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS AN
INTENSE SHORTWAVE ALOFT CREATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WHICH GUIDANCE SPREADS ACROSS OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. ANOTHER INTENSE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO MODERATE CAPE LEVELS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND
40 KTS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
WEAKEN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMPT
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE. EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS SHOW A TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO JUNE...SO PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND WET AS WE HEAD INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      86  68  81  68 /  10  20  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    84  68  78  67 /  20  40  70  50
CROSSVILLE     79  64  77  66 /  05  10  40  50
COLUMBIA       85  67  79  67 /  20  30  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   85  67  78  66 /  20  40  60  60
WAVERLY        85  69  78  67 /  20  40  70  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER






000
FXUS64 KOHX 240447
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KTS ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 240447
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KTS ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 240447
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KTS ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 240447
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KTS ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 232344 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KTS ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 232344 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KTS ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 232317
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KT ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 232317
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KT ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 232317
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KT ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 232317
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KT ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 231907
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  86  68  78 /  10  10  30  40
CLARKSVILLE    60  83  68  78 /  10  20  40  60
CROSSVILLE     55  78  63  75 /   0  10  10  30
COLUMBIA       63  86  69  78 /  10  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   63  84  68  79 /  05  20  40  40
WAVERLY        63  84  69  78 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 231907
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  86  68  78 /  10  10  30  40
CLARKSVILLE    60  83  68  78 /  10  20  40  60
CROSSVILLE     55  78  63  75 /   0  10  10  30
COLUMBIA       63  86  69  78 /  10  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   63  84  68  79 /  05  20  40  40
WAVERLY        63  84  69  78 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 231825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
125 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
PICK UP IN SPEEDS SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 25 MPH DURING THE DAY.





&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 231825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
125 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
PICK UP IN SPEEDS SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 25 MPH DURING THE DAY.





&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01








000
FXUS64 KOHX 231515
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ALTOCUMULUS WORKING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW TEMP
RISE A BIT BUT STILL THINK LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
MOST AREAS WITH MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE PLATEAU.

SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN EASTERN VIRGINIA RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WITH KEEP SOUTHERLY
FEED ONGOING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 231515
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ALTOCUMULUS WORKING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW TEMP
RISE A BIT BUT STILL THINK LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
MOST AREAS WITH MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE PLATEAU.

SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN EASTERN VIRGINIA RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WITH KEEP SOUTHERLY
FEED ONGOING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 231515
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ALTOCUMULUS WORKING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW TEMP
RISE A BIT BUT STILL THINK LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
MOST AREAS WITH MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE PLATEAU.

SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN EASTERN VIRGINIA RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WITH KEEP SOUTHERLY
FEED ONGOING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 231108
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SQUEEZING OUT A FEW LIGHT
-SHRA THAT MAY IMPACT CKV THIS MORNING AND WILL MENTION VCSH
THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT ALL AIRPORTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH IS SLIDING JUST EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TODAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANOTHER GREAT
WEATHER DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND ALLOW FOR MORE WAA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP IN SPEED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE WAA FOR THOSE DAYS AS
WELL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY...THE TROUGH SLIDES NNE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY. AS STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
POSSIBILITIES...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LIKELY POPS NOW INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INCHES CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PUTS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THEIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS AND BEGIN TO
DEVIATE EVEN MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
PICTURE...BUT HAVE LOWER SCHC/CHC POPS IN TO FINISH OFF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 231108
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SQUEEZING OUT A FEW LIGHT
-SHRA THAT MAY IMPACT CKV THIS MORNING AND WILL MENTION VCSH
THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT ALL AIRPORTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH IS SLIDING JUST EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TODAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANOTHER GREAT
WEATHER DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND ALLOW FOR MORE WAA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP IN SPEED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE WAA FOR THOSE DAYS AS
WELL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY...THE TROUGH SLIDES NNE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY. AS STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
POSSIBILITIES...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LIKELY POPS NOW INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INCHES CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PUTS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THEIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS AND BEGIN TO
DEVIATE EVEN MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
PICTURE...BUT HAVE LOWER SCHC/CHC POPS IN TO FINISH OFF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 231108
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SQUEEZING OUT A FEW LIGHT
-SHRA THAT MAY IMPACT CKV THIS MORNING AND WILL MENTION VCSH
THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT ALL AIRPORTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH IS SLIDING JUST EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TODAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANOTHER GREAT
WEATHER DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND ALLOW FOR MORE WAA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP IN SPEED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE WAA FOR THOSE DAYS AS
WELL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY...THE TROUGH SLIDES NNE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY. AS STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
POSSIBILITIES...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LIKELY POPS NOW INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INCHES CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PUTS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THEIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS AND BEGIN TO
DEVIATE EVEN MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
PICTURE...BUT HAVE LOWER SCHC/CHC POPS IN TO FINISH OFF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 231108
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SQUEEZING OUT A FEW LIGHT
-SHRA THAT MAY IMPACT CKV THIS MORNING AND WILL MENTION VCSH
THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT ALL AIRPORTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH IS SLIDING JUST EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TODAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANOTHER GREAT
WEATHER DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND ALLOW FOR MORE WAA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP IN SPEED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE WAA FOR THOSE DAYS AS
WELL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY...THE TROUGH SLIDES NNE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY. AS STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
POSSIBILITIES...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LIKELY POPS NOW INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INCHES CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PUTS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THEIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS AND BEGIN TO
DEVIATE EVEN MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
PICTURE...BUT HAVE LOWER SCHC/CHC POPS IN TO FINISH OFF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 230810
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH IS SLIDING JUST EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TODAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANOTHER GREAT
WEATHER DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND ALLOW FOR MORE WAA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP IN SPEED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE WAA FOR THOSE DAYS AS
WELL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY...THE TROUGH SLIDES NNE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY. AS STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
POSSIBILITIES...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LIKELY POPS NOW INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INCHES CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PUTS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THEIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS AND BEGIN TO
DEVIATE EVEN MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
PICTURE...BUT HAVE LOWER SCHC/CHC POPS IN TO FINISH OFF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  62  85  68 /  05  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    79  61  83  67 /  05  10  20  30
CROSSVILLE     77  57  78  63 /  05  05  05  10
COLUMBIA       82  60  84  67 /  05  10  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   81  61  83  66 /  05  05  20  40
WAVERLY        80  62  83  68 /  05  10  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 230810
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH IS SLIDING JUST EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TODAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANOTHER GREAT
WEATHER DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND ALLOW FOR MORE WAA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP IN SPEED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE WAA FOR THOSE DAYS AS
WELL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY...THE TROUGH SLIDES NNE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY. AS STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
POSSIBILITIES...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LIKELY POPS NOW INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INCHES CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PUTS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THEIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS AND BEGIN TO
DEVIATE EVEN MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
PICTURE...BUT HAVE LOWER SCHC/CHC POPS IN TO FINISH OFF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  62  85  68 /  05  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    79  61  83  67 /  05  10  20  30
CROSSVILLE     77  57  78  63 /  05  05  05  10
COLUMBIA       82  60  84  67 /  05  10  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   81  61  83  66 /  05  05  20  40
WAVERLY        80  62  83  68 /  05  10  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 230449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION,

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 230449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION,

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 222327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 222324
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222324
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 222324
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 222324
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...AND SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST AND
BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221911
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      53  82  62  84 /  05  05  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    52  80  61  84 /  05  05  10  20
CROSSVILLE     49  76  56  78 /  10  05  05  10
COLUMBIA       52  82  63  84 /  05  05  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   51  82  63  84 /  05  05  05  20
WAVERLY        51  81  63  84 /  05  05  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221911
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
211 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT, AND SO
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE GFS PROVIDING A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, THE SPC DOESN`T HINT AT ANYTHING SEVERE IN ITS EXTENDED
OUTLOOK, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, AS IT WILL TAKE A SECOND SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE
SHORTWAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH, SO WE`LL SEE GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      53  82  62  84 /  05  05  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    52  80  61  84 /  05  05  10  20
CROSSVILLE     49  76  56  78 /  10  05  05  10
COLUMBIA       52  82  63  84 /  05  05  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   51  82  63  84 /  05  05  05  20
WAVERLY        51  81  63  84 /  05  05  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 221726
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL MID-STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG WITH
LIGHT SFC FLOW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221726
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL MID-STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG WITH
LIGHT SFC FLOW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221726
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL MID-STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG WITH
LIGHT SFC FLOW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221642
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...AFTER A VERY CHILLY MORNING, WITH LOWS SOME 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES HAD RECOVERED INTO THE
60S.

SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES REPORTED EARLY TODAY INCLUDED,

MONTGOMERY BELL...34
MANCHESTER........36
WOODBURY..........39
SMITHVILLE........39
CENTERVILLE.......39
MERIWETHER LEWIS..39

YOU ALMOST COULDN`T ASK FOR A NICER WAY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND
START THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE OUR
WEATHER TODAY, PRODUCING LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND PLEASANT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S. IN ADDITION, AS AN EXTRA BENEFIT,
WE`LL HAVE LOW HUMIDITIES, WHICH WILL HELP TO MAKE IT A FANTASTIC
DAY TO BE OUTDOORS--THE PROVERBIAL CHERRY ON THE TOP, IF YOU WILL.
SO, YOU BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY THIS FINE WEATHER IF YOU
CAN, BECAUSE THE STEAMY HEAT OF SUMMER IS LURKING JUST AROUND THE
CORNER.

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221642
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...AFTER A VERY CHILLY MORNING, WITH LOWS SOME 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES HAD RECOVERED INTO THE
60S.

SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES REPORTED EARLY TODAY INCLUDED,

MONTGOMERY BELL...34
MANCHESTER........36
WOODBURY..........39
SMITHVILLE........39
CENTERVILLE.......39
MERIWETHER LEWIS..39

YOU ALMOST COULDN`T ASK FOR A NICER WAY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND
START THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE OUR
WEATHER TODAY, PRODUCING LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND PLEASANT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S. IN ADDITION, AS AN EXTRA BENEFIT,
WE`LL HAVE LOW HUMIDITIES, WHICH WILL HELP TO MAKE IT A FANTASTIC
DAY TO BE OUTDOORS--THE PROVERBIAL CHERRY ON THE TOP, IF YOU WILL.
SO, YOU BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY THIS FINE WEATHER IF YOU
CAN, BECAUSE THE STEAMY HEAT OF SUMMER IS LURKING JUST AROUND THE
CORNER.

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING IFR VIS TO CSV EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY
AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD. QUIET
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4-6C CURRENTLY WILL BECOME
14C OR SO BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH AMPLE SUN TODAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 70S BEFORE 80S MOVE IN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER MAINLY AREAS WEST OF
I65 INITIALLY. AS THE TROUGH TAKES MORE OF A NORTHERLY
TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW BASICALLY THE ENTIRE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH TIMING BEING DIFFICULT FOR BETTER
SHOTS AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW AGAIN DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT AND SEVERE PARAMETERS.
AFTER THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SO WONT PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON EITHER MODEL FOR NOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY...BUT WE WILL SEE IF THE
GFS AND ECMWF LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER AND GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE TO
THE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING IFR VIS TO CSV EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY
AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD. QUIET
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4-6C CURRENTLY WILL BECOME
14C OR SO BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH AMPLE SUN TODAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 70S BEFORE 80S MOVE IN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER MAINLY AREAS WEST OF
I65 INITIALLY. AS THE TROUGH TAKES MORE OF A NORTHERLY
TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW BASICALLY THE ENTIRE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH TIMING BEING DIFFICULT FOR BETTER
SHOTS AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW AGAIN DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT AND SEVERE PARAMETERS.
AFTER THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SO WONT PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON EITHER MODEL FOR NOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY...BUT WE WILL SEE IF THE
GFS AND ECMWF LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER AND GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE TO
THE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING IFR VIS TO CSV EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY
AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD. QUIET
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4-6C CURRENTLY WILL BECOME
14C OR SO BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH AMPLE SUN TODAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 70S BEFORE 80S MOVE IN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER MAINLY AREAS WEST OF
I65 INITIALLY. AS THE TROUGH TAKES MORE OF A NORTHERLY
TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW BASICALLY THE ENTIRE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH TIMING BEING DIFFICULT FOR BETTER
SHOTS AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW AGAIN DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT AND SEVERE PARAMETERS.
AFTER THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SO WONT PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON EITHER MODEL FOR NOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY...BUT WE WILL SEE IF THE
GFS AND ECMWF LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER AND GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE TO
THE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING IFR VIS TO CSV EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY
AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD. QUIET
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4-6C CURRENTLY WILL BECOME
14C OR SO BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH AMPLE SUN TODAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 70S BEFORE 80S MOVE IN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER MAINLY AREAS WEST OF
I65 INITIALLY. AS THE TROUGH TAKES MORE OF A NORTHERLY
TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW BASICALLY THE ENTIRE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH TIMING BEING DIFFICULT FOR BETTER
SHOTS AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW AGAIN DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT AND SEVERE PARAMETERS.
AFTER THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SO WONT PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON EITHER MODEL FOR NOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY...BUT WE WILL SEE IF THE
GFS AND ECMWF LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER AND GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE TO
THE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY
AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD. QUIET
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4-6C CURRENTLY WILL BECOME
14C OR SO BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH AMPLE SUN TODAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 70S BEFORE 80S MOVE IN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER MAINLY AREAS WEST OF
I65 INITIALLY. AS THE TROUGH TAKES MORE OF A NORTHERLY
TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW BASICALLY THE ENTIRE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH TIMING BEING DIFFICULT FOR BETTER
SHOTS AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW AGAIN DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT AND SEVERE PARAMETERS.
AFTER THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SO WONT PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON EITHER MODEL FOR NOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY...BUT WE WILL SEE IF THE
GFS AND ECMWF LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER AND GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE TO
THE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  54  82  61 /   0  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    74  53  78  59 /   0  05  10  10
CROSSVILLE     71  51  77  59 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       74  50  81  59 /   0  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   73  52  80  60 /   0  05  05  10
WAVERLY        74  55  80  62 /   0  05  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY
AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD. QUIET
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4-6C CURRENTLY WILL BECOME
14C OR SO BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH AMPLE SUN TODAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 70S BEFORE 80S MOVE IN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER MAINLY AREAS WEST OF
I65 INITIALLY. AS THE TROUGH TAKES MORE OF A NORTHERLY
TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW BASICALLY THE ENTIRE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH TIMING BEING DIFFICULT FOR BETTER
SHOTS AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW AGAIN DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT AND SEVERE PARAMETERS.
AFTER THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SO WONT PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON EITHER MODEL FOR NOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY...BUT WE WILL SEE IF THE
GFS AND ECMWF LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER AND GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE TO
THE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  54  82  61 /   0  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    74  53  78  59 /   0  05  10  10
CROSSVILLE     71  51  77  59 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       74  50  81  59 /   0  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   73  52  80  60 /   0  05  05  10
WAVERLY        74  55  80  62 /   0  05  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY
AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD. QUIET
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4-6C CURRENTLY WILL BECOME
14C OR SO BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH AMPLE SUN TODAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 70S BEFORE 80S MOVE IN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER MAINLY AREAS WEST OF
I65 INITIALLY. AS THE TROUGH TAKES MORE OF A NORTHERLY
TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW BASICALLY THE ENTIRE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH TIMING BEING DIFFICULT FOR BETTER
SHOTS AT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW AGAIN DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT AND SEVERE PARAMETERS.
AFTER THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SO WONT PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON EITHER MODEL FOR NOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY...BUT WE WILL SEE IF THE
GFS AND ECMWF LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER AND GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE TO
THE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  54  82  61 /   0  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    74  53  78  59 /   0  05  10  10
CROSSVILLE     71  51  77  59 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       74  50  81  59 /   0  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   73  52  80  60 /   0  05  05  10
WAVERLY        74  55  80  62 /   0  05  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220434 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
THRU 23/06Z...PROVIDING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SFC N-E WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION PER
CLRING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA FROM AROUND 22/07Z-22/15Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 745 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE THAT SOME
DEFINITIVE CLEARING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY. LATEST COD NAM CLOUD GRAPHIC PROG INDICATES RAPID CLEARING
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FCST...WILL DELAY...BY A FEW
HOURS...THE ONSET OF CLEARING. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS
GOOD. CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM 6F AT CSV TO AROUND
10-12F ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WE SHOULD SEE THE DEPRESSIONS DROP
TOWARD ZERO LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WILL THEREFORE
KEEP THE FOG GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS A
COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED...LOWS IN THE 40S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220434 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
THRU 23/06Z...PROVIDING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SFC N-E WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION PER
CLRING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA FROM AROUND 22/07Z-22/15Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 745 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE THAT SOME
DEFINITIVE CLEARING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY. LATEST COD NAM CLOUD GRAPHIC PROG INDICATES RAPID CLEARING
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FCST...WILL DELAY...BY A FEW
HOURS...THE ONSET OF CLEARING. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS
GOOD. CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM 6F AT CSV TO AROUND
10-12F ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WE SHOULD SEE THE DEPRESSIONS DROP
TOWARD ZERO LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WILL THEREFORE
KEEP THE FOG GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS A
COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED...LOWS IN THE 40S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220434 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
THRU 23/06Z...PROVIDING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SFC N-E WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION PER
CLRING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA FROM AROUND 22/07Z-22/15Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 745 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE THAT SOME
DEFINITIVE CLEARING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY. LATEST COD NAM CLOUD GRAPHIC PROG INDICATES RAPID CLEARING
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FCST...WILL DELAY...BY A FEW
HOURS...THE ONSET OF CLEARING. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS
GOOD. CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM 6F AT CSV TO AROUND
10-12F ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WE SHOULD SEE THE DEPRESSIONS DROP
TOWARD ZERO LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WILL THEREFORE
KEEP THE FOG GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS A
COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED...LOWS IN THE 40S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
745 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE THAT SOME
DEFINITIVE CLEARING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY. LATEST COD NAM CLOUD GRAPHIC PROG INDICATES RAPID CLEARING
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FCST...WILL DELAY...BY A FEW
HOURS...THE ONSET OF CLEARING. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS
GOOD. CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM 6F AT CSV TO AROUND
10-12F ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WE SHOULD SEE THE DEPRESSIONS DROP
TOWARD ZERO LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WILL THEREFORE
KEEP THE FOG GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS A
COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED...LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
745 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE THAT SOME
DEFINITIVE CLEARING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY. LATEST COD NAM CLOUD GRAPHIC PROG INDICATES RAPID CLEARING
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FCST...WILL DELAY...BY A FEW
HOURS...THE ONSET OF CLEARING. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS
GOOD. CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM 6F AT CSV TO AROUND
10-12F ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WE SHOULD SEE THE DEPRESSIONS DROP
TOWARD ZERO LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WILL THEREFORE
KEEP THE FOG GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS A
COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED...LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
745 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE THAT SOME
DEFINITIVE CLEARING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY. LATEST COD NAM CLOUD GRAPHIC PROG INDICATES RAPID CLEARING
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FCST...WILL DELAY...BY A FEW
HOURS...THE ONSET OF CLEARING. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS
GOOD. CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM 6F AT CSV TO AROUND
10-12F ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WE SHOULD SEE THE DEPRESSIONS DROP
TOWARD ZERO LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WILL THEREFORE
KEEP THE FOG GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS A
COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED...LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
745 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES STILL IN PLACE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE THAT SOME
DEFINITIVE CLEARING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY. LATEST COD NAM CLOUD GRAPHIC PROG INDICATES RAPID CLEARING
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. FOR THE FCST...WILL DELAY...BY A FEW
HOURS...THE ONSET OF CLEARING. OTW...REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS
GOOD. CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM 6F AT CSV TO AROUND
10-12F ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WE SHOULD SEE THE DEPRESSIONS DROP
TOWARD ZERO LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WILL THEREFORE
KEEP THE FOG GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS A
COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED...LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220002 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220002 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220002 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220002 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
702 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ALONG WITH SFC OBS TRENDS...SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONSENSUS
SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE...SHOWING GENERALLY LOW LEVEL STRATO CU
CEILING EROSIONS BY AROUND 22/02Z CKV...AROUND 22/04Z BNA...AND AROUND
22/06Z CSV...AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU 22/24Z...PROVIDING SKC CONDITIONS. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES...
WINDS DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 10KT TO 5 KTS THRU AT LEAST 22/14Z...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING PREVALENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS ACROSS AREA...WILL
MENTION MVFR FOG FORMATION STARTING AROUND 22/05Z CKV...WITH IFR FOG FORMATION
POSSIBLE AFTER 22/08Z CKV/CSV. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 22/24Z WITH
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MORRISTOWN TN/

DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 212229 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR PUNCTUATION AND SPELLING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
237 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  77  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     43  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       44  76  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  75  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
WAVERLY        45  75  56  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 212229 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR PUNCTUATION AND SPELLING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
237 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  77  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     43  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       44  76  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  75  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
WAVERLY        45  75  56  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 212229 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR PUNCTUATION AND SPELLING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
237 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY...
BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  77  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     43  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       44  76  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  75  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
WAVERLY        45  75  56  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211937
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
237 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY
/BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE/. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFP
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  77  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     43  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       44  76  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  75  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
WAVERLY        45  75  56  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOHX 211937
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
237 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAINLY COOL AND
OVERCAST/CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIMITED HEATING AND A
NORTHWEST WIND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING BY 21Z OR SO...BUT THIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HAS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BY THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY
/BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE/. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST. THE NAM BRINGS IN A WEAK WAVE LATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFP
MAINTAINS A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
AND HAVE LOW POPS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL THEN
TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  77  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     43  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       44  76  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  75  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
WAVERLY        45  75  56  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KOHX 211730 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT EACH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRY AIR GRADUALLY BREAKS UP THIS CLOUD COVER BY
THE LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT HOURS AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS. LATE
TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT KCKV/KCSV THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  76  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  73  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     43  70  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       44  75  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  74  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
WAVERLY        45  74  56  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AMP.23




000
FXUS64 KOHX 211730 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT EACH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRY AIR GRADUALLY BREAKS UP THIS CLOUD COVER BY
THE LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT HOURS AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS. LATE
TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT KCKV/KCSV THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  76  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    44  73  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     43  70  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       44  75  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  74  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
WAVERLY        45  74  56  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AMP.23





000
FXUS64 KOHX 211427 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL/OVERCAST MORNING IS PREVAILING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW
STRATUS...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOOKING AT RECENT OBS/RADAR TRENDS...THINK
THAT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
GRIDS. MODEL 925 MB RH SHOWS THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO ERODE /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA/...DESPITE SOME INTRUSION OF DRY AIR LATER TODAY. AS
SUCH...HAVE KEPT THE SKY COMPLETELY OVERCAST THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE
SHOWING SOME GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NW FLOW
AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK AND SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HAVE ACTUALLY NUDGED TEMPS DOWN
ANOTHER DEGREE FOR TODAY...WITH THE MERCURY ONLY REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  47  76  55 /  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    63  44  73  54 /  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     61  43  70  53 /  20   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  44  75  52 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  45  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
WAVERLY        65  45  74  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AMP.23




000
FXUS64 KOHX 211427 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL/OVERCAST MORNING IS PREVAILING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW
STRATUS...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOOKING AT RECENT OBS/RADAR TRENDS...THINK
THAT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
GRIDS. MODEL 925 MB RH SHOWS THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO ERODE /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA/...DESPITE SOME INTRUSION OF DRY AIR LATER TODAY. AS
SUCH...HAVE KEPT THE SKY COMPLETELY OVERCAST THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE
SHOWING SOME GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NW FLOW
AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK AND SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HAVE ACTUALLY NUDGED TEMPS DOWN
ANOTHER DEGREE FOR TODAY...WITH THE MERCURY ONLY REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  47  76  55 /  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    63  44  73  54 /  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     61  43  70  53 /  20   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  44  75  52 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  45  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
WAVERLY        65  45  74  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AMP.23





000
FXUS64 KOHX 211427 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL/OVERCAST MORNING IS PREVAILING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW
STRATUS...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOOKING AT RECENT OBS/RADAR TRENDS...THINK
THAT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
GRIDS. MODEL 925 MB RH SHOWS THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO ERODE /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA/...DESPITE SOME INTRUSION OF DRY AIR LATER TODAY. AS
SUCH...HAVE KEPT THE SKY COMPLETELY OVERCAST THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE
SHOWING SOME GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NW FLOW
AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK AND SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HAVE ACTUALLY NUDGED TEMPS DOWN
ANOTHER DEGREE FOR TODAY...WITH THE MERCURY ONLY REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  47  76  55 /  10   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    63  44  73  54 /  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     61  43  70  53 /  20   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  44  75  52 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   66  45  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
WAVERLY        65  45  74  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AMP.23





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