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000
FXUS64 KOHX 240134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
734 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG VORT AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MID STATE AT THIS TIME WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP COVERAGE
BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HRRR SHOWS THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE MARKEDLY FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETURN AFTER
OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE AS THE POPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFT
MIDNIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...GRADIENT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
BECOME TIGHTER TOWARD 12Z WHEN THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. CURRENT
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PEAK WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE.

SO BASICALLY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE FCST. WILL LIKELY
SEND OUT ANOTHER SET OF ZONES AND LOWER POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
ONCE THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER ONCE THE PRECIP FREE
AREA MOVES IN. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL ISSUE THE UPDATE A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO
LOWER POPS...SOME...ACROSS THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM TO PULL EAST OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
PRECIP DECREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. OTW...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND
GUSTY AT TIMES.

AS FOR CIGS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST BUT CIGS WILL
LIFT SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RAINY AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY DAY
ACROSS MID TN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS LIFTING ACROSS MID TN...AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE RAIN ARE MOVING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. THESE BREAKS
IN TE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MID TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT WE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS RADAR
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POPS WILL
DROP OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT. NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED TODAY...BUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR 2 COULD OCCUR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE WIND
POTENTIAL. A VORT MAX AND SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FROM WEST CENTRAL MS WILL ZIP UP THE MS RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MEETING UP WITH A DEEPENING SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW
PRESSURE FROM OK. A LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50-60KT. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE MAIN TIME FOR THIS
WILL BE FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM...AND THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL AFFECT
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I 65. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MID STATE WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA. EVEN THROUGH THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS ACROSS A WIDE AREA. FOR MID
TN...THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND SOME 45 MPH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. GUSTS OF THAT STRENGTH COULD EASILY BRING DOWN SOME LIMBS
AND WEAKER TREES...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL FREQUENTLY
OVER 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY AND COOLER WX MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL STAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON MID TN. SO...AFTER A
VERY ACTIVE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      53  57  34  50 /  80  20   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    51  55  32  45 /  80  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     53  57  31  47 /  70  30  05  05
COLUMBIA       54  58  33  51 /  60  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   52  57  32  51 /  50  20   0   0
WAVERLY        50  56  32  47 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 240134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
734 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG VORT AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MID STATE AT THIS TIME WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP COVERAGE
BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HRRR SHOWS THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE MARKEDLY FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETURN AFTER
OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE AS THE POPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFT
MIDNIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...GRADIENT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
BECOME TIGHTER TOWARD 12Z WHEN THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. CURRENT
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PEAK WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE.

SO BASICALLY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE FCST. WILL LIKELY
SEND OUT ANOTHER SET OF ZONES AND LOWER POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
ONCE THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER ONCE THE PRECIP FREE
AREA MOVES IN. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL ISSUE THE UPDATE A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO
LOWER POPS...SOME...ACROSS THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM TO PULL EAST OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
PRECIP DECREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. OTW...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND
GUSTY AT TIMES.

AS FOR CIGS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST BUT CIGS WILL
LIFT SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RAINY AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY DAY
ACROSS MID TN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS LIFTING ACROSS MID TN...AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE RAIN ARE MOVING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. THESE BREAKS
IN TE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MID TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT WE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS RADAR
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POPS WILL
DROP OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT. NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED TODAY...BUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR 2 COULD OCCUR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE WIND
POTENTIAL. A VORT MAX AND SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FROM WEST CENTRAL MS WILL ZIP UP THE MS RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MEETING UP WITH A DEEPENING SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW
PRESSURE FROM OK. A LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50-60KT. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE MAIN TIME FOR THIS
WILL BE FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM...AND THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL AFFECT
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I 65. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MID STATE WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA. EVEN THROUGH THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS ACROSS A WIDE AREA. FOR MID
TN...THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND SOME 45 MPH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. GUSTS OF THAT STRENGTH COULD EASILY BRING DOWN SOME LIMBS
AND WEAKER TREES...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL FREQUENTLY
OVER 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY AND COOLER WX MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL STAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON MID TN. SO...AFTER A
VERY ACTIVE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      53  57  34  50 /  80  20   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    51  55  32  45 /  80  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     53  57  31  47 /  70  30  05  05
COLUMBIA       54  58  33  51 /  60  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   52  57  32  51 /  50  20   0   0
WAVERLY        50  56  32  47 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 240009
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM TO PULL EAST OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
PRECIP DECREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. OTW...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND
GUSTY AT TIMES.

AS FOR CIGS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST BUT CIGS WILL
LIFT SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RAINY AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY DAY
ACROSS MID TN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS LIFTING ACROSS MID TN...AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE RAIN ARE MOVING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. THESE BREAKS
IN TE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MID TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT WE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS RADAR
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POPS WILL
DROP OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT. NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED TODAY...BUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR 2 COULD OCCUR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE WIND
POTENTIAL. A VORT MAX AND SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FROM WEST CENTRAL MS WILL ZIP UP THE MS RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MEETING UP WITH A DEEPENING SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW
PRESSURE FROM OK. A LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50-60KT. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE MAIN TIME FOR THIS
WILL BE FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM...AND THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL AFFECT
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I 65. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MID STATE WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA. EVEN THROUGH THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS ACROSS A WIDE AREA. FOR MID
TN...THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND SOME 45 MPH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. GUSTS OF THAT STRENGTH COULD EASILY BRING DOWN SOME LIMBS
AND WEAKER TREES...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL FREQUENTLY
OVER 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY AND COOLER WX MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL STAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON MID TN. SO...AFTER A
VERY ACTIVE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 232140
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
340 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RAINY AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY DAY
ACROSS MID TN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS LIFTING ACROSS MID TN...AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE RAIN ARE MOVING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. THESE BREAKS
IN TE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MID TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT WE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS RADAR
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POPS WILL
DROP OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT. NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED TODAY...BUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR 2 COULD OCCUR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE WIND
POTENTIAL. A VORT MAX AND SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FROM WEST CENTRAL MS WILL ZIP UP THE MS RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MEETING UP WITH A DEEPENING SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW
PRESSURE FROM OK. A LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50-60KT. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE MAIN TIME FOR THIS
WILL BE FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM...AND THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL AFFECT
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I 65. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MID STATE WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA. EVEN THROUGH THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS ACROSS A WIDE AREA. FOR MID
TN...THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND SOME 45 MPH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. GUSTS OF THAT STRENGTH COULD EASILY BRING DOWN SOME LIMBS
AND WEAKER TREES...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL FREQUENTLY
OVER 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY AND COOLER WX MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL STAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON MID TN. SO...AFTER A
VERY ACTIVE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      53  57  34  50 /  80  20   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    51  55  32  45 /  80  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     53  57  31  47 /  70  30  05  05
COLUMBIA       54  58  33  51 /  60  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   52  57  32  51 /  50  20   0   0
WAVERLY        50  56  32  47 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 231846
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SOON. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS UPDATES...MESO LOW WILL BE COMING UP THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED GUSTS...PROBABLY 35-40 MPH. WINDS MAY DROP OFF A
BIT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS THE MAIN LOW BRINGS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING FROM AROUND 5 AM TO
NOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH
SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

THESE WIND GUSTS COULD CAUSE SOME IMPACTS...INCLUDING DOWNED
LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ALSO...LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS
LIKE PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS SHOULD BE SECURED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

-SHRA AND MVFR VIS/CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD AIRPORTS LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS -SHRA CONTINUE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
LIGHTNING TO MENTION VCTS AT AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR
VIS/MVFR CIGS RETURN BY 24/03Z AS -SHRA COME TO AN END. GUSTY
SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
INCREASE AGAIN BY 09Z WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ON MONDAY AS MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE MID
STATE DUE TO INCREASE WAA AHEAD OF A 999MB MESOLOW OVER LOUISIANA
AND A DEEPENING 995MB SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW IN OKLAHOMA. LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50-60 KT THROUGH THE DAY CREATING STRONG
LIFT ATOP THE SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER...SO EXPECT NEAR-
CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WITH POPS AT 100
PERCENT. RAIN TOTALS IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE FOR
THIS EVENT STILL APPEAR REASONABLE. AS 500MB TEMPERATURE COOL TO
-15C THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL LIKELY ALSO START TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIX IN AS WELL. STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP STORMS ON THE
WEAK SIDE WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONG STORM OR TWO DUE TO THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH MESOLOW NOW OVER LOUISIANA AS IT TRACKS INTO
WESTERN TN...AS GFS/NAM SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR/OVER 40 MPH COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE WAA
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES ATTM.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-023>033-056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 231846
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SOON. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS UPDATES...MESO LOW WILL BE COMING UP THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ENHANCED GUSTS...PROBABLY 35-40 MPH. WINDS MAY DROP OFF A
BIT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS THE MAIN LOW BRINGS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING FROM AROUND 5 AM TO
NOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH
SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

THESE WIND GUSTS COULD CAUSE SOME IMPACTS...INCLUDING DOWNED
LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ALSO...LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS
LIKE PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS SHOULD BE SECURED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

-SHRA AND MVFR VIS/CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD AIRPORTS LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS -SHRA CONTINUE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
LIGHTNING TO MENTION VCTS AT AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR
VIS/MVFR CIGS RETURN BY 24/03Z AS -SHRA COME TO AN END. GUSTY
SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
INCREASE AGAIN BY 09Z WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ON MONDAY AS MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE MID
STATE DUE TO INCREASE WAA AHEAD OF A 999MB MESOLOW OVER LOUISIANA
AND A DEEPENING 995MB SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW IN OKLAHOMA. LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50-60 KT THROUGH THE DAY CREATING STRONG
LIFT ATOP THE SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER...SO EXPECT NEAR-
CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WITH POPS AT 100
PERCENT. RAIN TOTALS IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE FOR
THIS EVENT STILL APPEAR REASONABLE. AS 500MB TEMPERATURE COOL TO
-15C THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL LIKELY ALSO START TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIX IN AS WELL. STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP STORMS ON THE
WEAK SIDE WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONG STORM OR TWO DUE TO THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH MESOLOW NOW OVER LOUISIANA AS IT TRACKS INTO
WESTERN TN...AS GFS/NAM SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR/OVER 40 MPH COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE WAA
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES ATTM.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-023>033-056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 231744
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

-SHRA AND MVFR VIS/CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD AIRPORTS LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS -SHRA CONTINUE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
LIGHTNING TO MENTION VCTS AT AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR
VIS/MVFR CIGS RETURN BY 24/03Z AS -SHRA COME TO AN END. GUSTY
SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
INCREASE AGAIN BY 09Z WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ON MONDAY AS MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE MID
STATE DUE TO INCREASE WAA AHEAD OF A 999MB MESOLOW OVER LOUISIANA
AND A DEEPENING 995MB SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW IN OKLAHOMA. LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50-60 KT THROUGH THE DAY CREATING STRONG
LIFT ATOP THE SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER...SO EXPECT NEAR-
CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WITH POPS AT 100
PERCENT. RAIN TOTALS IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE FOR
THIS EVENT STILL APPEAR REASONABLE. AS 500MB TEMPERATURE COOL TO
-15C THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL LIKELY ALSO START TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIX IN AS WELL. STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP STORMS ON THE
WEAK SIDE WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONG STORM OR TWO DUE TO THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH MESOLOW NOW OVER LOUISIANA AS IT TRACKS INTO
WESTERN TN...AS GFS/NAM SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR/OVER 40 MPH COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE WAA
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES ATTM.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER MESSY TIME FOR FLYING DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO LOW CIGS AND STRONG AND
GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS. INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW, MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA, WILL PRODUCE A BROAD BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. RAIN INTENSITY DECREASES AFTER 02Z, BUT
LOW CIGS REMAIN. THE ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, UP THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT, LOOK
FOR A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND
LINGER PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT. 850MB JET INCREASES FROM
30-45KTS EARLY TODAY, TO 40-60KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 231744
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

-SHRA AND MVFR VIS/CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD AIRPORTS LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS -SHRA CONTINUE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
LIGHTNING TO MENTION VCTS AT AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR
VIS/MVFR CIGS RETURN BY 24/03Z AS -SHRA COME TO AN END. GUSTY
SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
INCREASE AGAIN BY 09Z WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ON MONDAY AS MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE MID
STATE DUE TO INCREASE WAA AHEAD OF A 999MB MESOLOW OVER LOUISIANA
AND A DEEPENING 995MB SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW IN OKLAHOMA. LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50-60 KT THROUGH THE DAY CREATING STRONG
LIFT ATOP THE SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER...SO EXPECT NEAR-
CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WITH POPS AT 100
PERCENT. RAIN TOTALS IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE FOR
THIS EVENT STILL APPEAR REASONABLE. AS 500MB TEMPERATURE COOL TO
-15C THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL LIKELY ALSO START TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIX IN AS WELL. STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP STORMS ON THE
WEAK SIDE WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONG STORM OR TWO DUE TO THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH MESOLOW NOW OVER LOUISIANA AS IT TRACKS INTO
WESTERN TN...AS GFS/NAM SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR/OVER 40 MPH COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE WAA
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES ATTM.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER MESSY TIME FOR FLYING DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO LOW CIGS AND STRONG AND
GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS. INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW, MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA, WILL PRODUCE A BROAD BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. RAIN INTENSITY DECREASES AFTER 02Z, BUT
LOW CIGS REMAIN. THE ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, UP THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT, LOOK
FOR A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND
LINGER PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT. 850MB JET INCREASES FROM
30-45KTS EARLY TODAY, TO 40-60KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 231611
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1011 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE MID
STATE DUE TO INCREASE WAA AHEAD OF A 999MB MESOLOW OVER LOUISIANA
AND A DEEPENING 995MB SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW IN OKLAHOMA. LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50-60 KT THROUGH THE DAY CREATING STRONG
LIFT ATOP THE SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER...SO EXPECT NEAR-
CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WITH POPS AT 100
PERCENT. RAIN TOTALS IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE FOR
THIS EVENT STILL APPEAR REASONABLE. AS 500MB TEMPERATURE COOL TO
-15C THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL LIKELY ALSO START TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIX IN AS WELL. STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP STORMS ON THE
WEAK SIDE WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONG STORM OR TWO DUE TO THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH MESOLOW NOW OVER LOUISIANA AS IT TRACKS INTO
WESTERN TN...AS GFS/NAM SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR/OVER 40 MPH COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE WAA
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES ATTM.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER MESSY TIME FOR FLYING DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO LOW CIGS AND STRONG AND
GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS. INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW, MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA, WILL PRODUCE A BROAD BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. RAIN INTENSITY DECREASES AFTER 02Z, BUT
LOW CIGS REMAIN. THE ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, UP THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT, LOOK
FOR A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND
LINGER PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT. 850MB JET INCREASES FROM
30-45KTS EARLY TODAY, TO 40-60KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 231611
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1011 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE MID
STATE DUE TO INCREASE WAA AHEAD OF A 999MB MESOLOW OVER LOUISIANA
AND A DEEPENING 995MB SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW IN OKLAHOMA. LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50-60 KT THROUGH THE DAY CREATING STRONG
LIFT ATOP THE SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER...SO EXPECT NEAR-
CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WITH POPS AT 100
PERCENT. RAIN TOTALS IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE FOR
THIS EVENT STILL APPEAR REASONABLE. AS 500MB TEMPERATURE COOL TO
-15C THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL LIKELY ALSO START TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIX IN AS WELL. STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP STORMS ON THE
WEAK SIDE WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONG STORM OR TWO DUE TO THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH MESOLOW NOW OVER LOUISIANA AS IT TRACKS INTO
WESTERN TN...AS GFS/NAM SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR/OVER 40 MPH COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE WAA
REGIME...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES ATTM.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER MESSY TIME FOR FLYING DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO LOW CIGS AND STRONG AND
GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS. INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW, MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA, WILL PRODUCE A BROAD BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. RAIN INTENSITY DECREASES AFTER 02Z, BUT
LOW CIGS REMAIN. THE ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, UP THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT, LOOK
FOR A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND
LINGER PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT. 850MB JET INCREASES FROM
30-45KTS EARLY TODAY, TO 40-60KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 231146
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER MESSY TIME FOR FLYING DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO LOW CIGS AND STRONG AND
GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS. INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW, MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA, WILL PRODUCE A BROAD BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. RAIN INTENSITY DECREASES AFTER 02Z, BUT
LOW CIGS REMAIN. THE ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, UP THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT, LOOK
FOR A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND
LINGER PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT. 850MB JET INCREASES FROM
30-45KTS EARLY TODAY, TO 40-60KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19








000
FXUS64 KOHX 231146
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER MESSY TIME FOR FLYING DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO LOW CIGS AND STRONG AND
GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS. INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW, MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA, WILL PRODUCE A BROAD BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. RAIN INTENSITY DECREASES AFTER 02Z, BUT
LOW CIGS REMAIN. THE ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, UP THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT, LOOK
FOR A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND
LINGER PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT. 850MB JET INCREASES FROM
30-45KTS EARLY TODAY, TO 40-60KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 230935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      64  50  54  31 / 100  50  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    62  47  51  29 / 100  60  30  10
CROSSVILLE     59  51  52  31 / 100  40  30  10
COLUMBIA       65  48  54  30 / 100  40  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   64  47  54  33 / 100  30  30  10
WAVERLY        62  48  53  31 / 100  50  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 230935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AS ADVERTISED...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT.  ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE GULF COAST HAVE RESULTED...AND MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY IS WHAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE WILL THE ACTIVITY BE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.  WITH THAT ENERGY
NOT PHASING UP WELL WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE OVERALL PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE.  THAT SAID...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  THAT`S
A FAR CRY FROM THE DRY LOWER LEVELS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NO DOUBT MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-STATE TODAY.  IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HERE AT HOME...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY.
ON TOP OF THAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE ME LEAN TOWARDS NO SEVERE
WEATHER.  BUT...WITH A 65 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND.  FOR THIS REASON...I AM GOING TO
HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MODERATE...WITH A MAX OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED.

WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE HEADLINE FOR THIS WEATHER EVENT IS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.  AS THE RAINS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. THIS PUTS
US ON THE VERGE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THIS WITH AN SPS
ATTM...BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WHILE MOST OF THE TREES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAD THEIR FOLIAGE
THINNED OUT DUE TO THE AUTUMN FALL...A SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PLENTY OF SMALL BRANCHES TO
BREAK...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WEAK TREES COULD ALSO SUCCUMB TO THE
STRONG WINDS. LIGHT WEIGHT...UNSECURED ITEMS...SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD ALSO BLOW OVER...SO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE
THESE ITEMS BEFORE THIS EVENING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND
THAT...IT COULD BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE ANYMORE
PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT WON`T BE TOO COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      64  50  54  31 / 100  50  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    62  47  51  29 / 100  60  30  10
CROSSVILLE     59  51  52  31 / 100  40  30  10
COLUMBIA       65  48  54  30 / 100  40  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   64  47  54  33 / 100  30  30  10
WAVERLY        62  48  53  31 / 100  50  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 230547
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. MOST CIGS ARE IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUT LOWER CIGS NOTED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
LATEST TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE THE 00Z GRAPHICAL SOLUTIONS.
FURTHERMORE...NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ARE LITTLE TOO COOL AS WELL.
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS QUITE DRY AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...H-TRIP-R SHOWS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MAKING A RUN AT OUR SOUTHWESTER CORNER
AROUND 12Z.

FOR THE UPDATE...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LOW POPS THAT ARE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 230028
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. MOST CIGS ARE IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUT LOWER CIGS NOTED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
LATEST TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE THE 00Z GRAPHICAL SOLUTIONS.
FURTHERMORE...NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ARE LITTLE TOO COOL AS WELL.
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS QUITE DRY AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...H-TRIP-R SHOWS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MAKING A RUN AT OUR SOUTHWESTER CORNER
AROUND 12Z.

FOR THE UPDATE...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LOW POPS THAT ARE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS IF NOT SOONER. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY
SETTLE IN BETWEEN 12-18Z BEFORE THE MORE CONSTANT IFR CONDITIONS
DO. RAIN WILL BE PRETTY STEADY FROM MIDDAY ON...WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. A LOW-LEVEL SERLY JET OF
40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND 18Z AT 2-4KFT...BUT SFC WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY SO NO NEED FOR THE MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS.
GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE...UP TO 35 KTS IF THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE PRECIP. INSTANCES OF LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-00Z TOMORROW AS WELL. POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A NICE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MID TN WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...BUT NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING OVER TX. SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING IN THE
WARMER AIR. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TOWARD MID
TN..WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG TROUGH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS MID TN...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND CONSIDERABLE SR
HELICITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. OUR MAIN
CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES...WILL COME FROM THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS PIN DOWN THE TIMES AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
BE PULLING AWAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY EVEN THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER THIS BIG SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...QUIET WC IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED. FOR EXAMPLE...ON THURSDAY...GEFS GUIDANCE HI TEMP
VALUES RANGE FROM 39 TO 59. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR STANDARD
EXTENDED BLEND...LEANING TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 230028
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. MOST CIGS ARE IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUT LOWER CIGS NOTED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
LATEST TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE THE 00Z GRAPHICAL SOLUTIONS.
FURTHERMORE...NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ARE LITTLE TOO COOL AS WELL.
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS QUITE DRY AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...H-TRIP-R SHOWS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MAKING A RUN AT OUR SOUTHWESTER CORNER
AROUND 12Z.

FOR THE UPDATE...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LOW POPS THAT ARE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS IF NOT SOONER. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY
SETTLE IN BETWEEN 12-18Z BEFORE THE MORE CONSTANT IFR CONDITIONS
DO. RAIN WILL BE PRETTY STEADY FROM MIDDAY ON...WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. A LOW-LEVEL SERLY JET OF
40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND 18Z AT 2-4KFT...BUT SFC WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY SO NO NEED FOR THE MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS.
GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE...UP TO 35 KTS IF THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE PRECIP. INSTANCES OF LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-00Z TOMORROW AS WELL. POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A NICE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MID TN WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...BUT NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING OVER TX. SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING IN THE
WARMER AIR. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TOWARD MID
TN..WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG TROUGH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS MID TN...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND CONSIDERABLE SR
HELICITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. OUR MAIN
CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES...WILL COME FROM THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS PIN DOWN THE TIMES AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
BE PULLING AWAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY EVEN THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER THIS BIG SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...QUIET WC IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED. FOR EXAMPLE...ON THURSDAY...GEFS GUIDANCE HI TEMP
VALUES RANGE FROM 39 TO 59. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR STANDARD
EXTENDED BLEND...LEANING TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 222348
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
548 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS IF NOT SOONER. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY
SETTLE IN BETWEEN 12-18Z BEFORE THE MORE CONSTANT IFR CONDITIONS
DO. RAIN WILL BE PRETTY STEADY FROM MIDDAY ON...WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. A LOW-LEVEL SERLY JET OF
40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND 18Z AT 2-4KFT...BUT SFC WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY SO NO NEED FOR THE MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS.
GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE...UP TO 35 KTS IF THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE PRECIP. INSTANCES OF LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-00Z TOMORROW AS WELL. POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A NICE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MID TN WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...BUT NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING OVER TX. SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING IN THE
WARMER AIR. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TOWARD MID
TN..WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG TROUGH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS MID TN...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND CONSIDERABLE SR
HELICITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. OUR MAIN
CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES...WILL COME FROM THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS PIN DOWN THE TIMES AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
BE PULLING AWAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY EVEN THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER THIS BIG SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...QUIET WC IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED. FOR EXAMPLE...ON THURSDAY...GEFS GUIDANCE HI TEMP
VALUES RANGE FROM 39 TO 59. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR STANDARD
EXTENDED BLEND...LEANING TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 222039
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A NICE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MID TN WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...BUT NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING OVER TX. SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING IN THE
WARMER AIR. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TOWARD MID
TN..WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG TROUGH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS MID TN...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND CONSIDERABLE SR
HELICIITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. OUR MAIN
CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES...WILL COME FROM THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS PIN DOWN THE TIMES AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
BE PULLING AWAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY EVEN THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER THIS BIG SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...QUIET WC IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED. FOR EXAMPLE...ON THURSDAY...GEFS GUIDANCE HI TEMP
VALUES RANGE FROM 39 TO 59. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR STANDARD
EXTENDED BLEND...LEANING TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  65  51  59 /  20 100  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    47  64  47  55 /  20 100  60  30
CROSSVILLE     45  58  52  55 /  20 100  40  30
COLUMBIA       49  63  51  59 /  30 100  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   48  62  50  59 /  30 100  30  30
WAVERLY        50  64  48  56 /  20 100  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 222039
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A NICE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MID TN WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...BUT NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING OVER TX. SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING IN THE
WARMER AIR. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TOWARD MID
TN..WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG TROUGH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS MID TN...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND CONSIDERABLE SR
HELICIITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. OUR MAIN
CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES...WILL COME FROM THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS PIN DOWN THE TIMES AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
BE PULLING AWAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY EVEN THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER THIS BIG SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...QUIET WC IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED. FOR EXAMPLE...ON THURSDAY...GEFS GUIDANCE HI TEMP
VALUES RANGE FROM 39 TO 59. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR STANDARD
EXTENDED BLEND...LEANING TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  65  51  59 /  20 100  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    47  64  47  55 /  20 100  60  30
CROSSVILLE     45  58  52  55 /  20 100  40  30
COLUMBIA       49  63  51  59 /  30 100  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   48  62  50  59 /  30 100  30  30
WAVERLY        50  64  48  56 /  20 100  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221749
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT STRATOCU AND BRISK SOUTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN AFTERNOON. CIGS BECOME MVFR
BY 23/10Z AND IFR BY 23/15Z AS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMMENCES DUE TO POWERFUL SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST.
-SHRA NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT ALL AIRPORTS...WITH
STRONG SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS DEVELOPING BY END OF TAF
PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE MID STATE. HRRR INDICATES
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z...SO EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT EASTWARD AND EXTENDED THROUGH THAT TIME.
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...
A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES/CKV...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP
A LITTLE TODAY AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN.

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BNA AND CKV TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS SHORTLY AFTER THIS FORECAST CYCLE ENDS AT
12Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US DRY ACROSS THE MID-STATE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.  NOW SITTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IT HAS PUT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/TN/OHIO
VALLEYS...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.  THE CATCH IS...IT`S
BEEN SO DRY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING SO LONG TO SATURATE THAT
NOT MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND.  KCKV SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT THEY ONLY MEASURED A TRACE.  THESE
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE.  THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOST EVERYONE WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S ON THE PLATEAU.

ALREADY IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER ON SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER E TEXAS TONIGHT...MOVING NEWD...AND PASSING JUST TO THE
WEST OF US.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PUTS US IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO A NEGATIVE TILT SUNDAY MORNING
AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS PRETTY RAPIDLY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THINGS...FIRST...IT WILL BE WINDY
SUNDAY.  WHILE TODAY`S BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BRINK OF A WIND ADVISORY...
BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER TODAY OR EVEN TONIGHT.
A SECOND RESULT OF THE QUICK INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THAT WILL ENSUE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KTS IS LIKELY AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 800-1000 M^2/S^2 MAY ALSO
OCCUR. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR MIGHT ACTUALLY BE OUR SAVING
GRACE. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MODERATE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. IN FACT...THE 60 DEGREE DEW POINT LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US. WITH SO MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
LITTLE INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHAT WILL BE OF CONCERN IS THE 850MB JET
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 50 TO 75 KTS. THIS MEANS WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. I WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THIS ISOLATED WIND THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FROPA WILL BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM...OCCURRING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.  DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221749
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT STRATOCU AND BRISK SOUTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN AFTERNOON. CIGS BECOME MVFR
BY 23/10Z AND IFR BY 23/15Z AS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMMENCES DUE TO POWERFUL SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST.
-SHRA NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT ALL AIRPORTS...WITH
STRONG SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS DEVELOPING BY END OF TAF
PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE MID STATE. HRRR INDICATES
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z...SO EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT EASTWARD AND EXTENDED THROUGH THAT TIME.
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...
A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES/CKV...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP
A LITTLE TODAY AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN.

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BNA AND CKV TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS SHORTLY AFTER THIS FORECAST CYCLE ENDS AT
12Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US DRY ACROSS THE MID-STATE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.  NOW SITTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IT HAS PUT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/TN/OHIO
VALLEYS...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.  THE CATCH IS...IT`S
BEEN SO DRY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING SO LONG TO SATURATE THAT
NOT MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND.  KCKV SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT THEY ONLY MEASURED A TRACE.  THESE
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE.  THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOST EVERYONE WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S ON THE PLATEAU.

ALREADY IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER ON SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER E TEXAS TONIGHT...MOVING NEWD...AND PASSING JUST TO THE
WEST OF US.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PUTS US IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO A NEGATIVE TILT SUNDAY MORNING
AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS PRETTY RAPIDLY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THINGS...FIRST...IT WILL BE WINDY
SUNDAY.  WHILE TODAY`S BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BRINK OF A WIND ADVISORY...
BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER TODAY OR EVEN TONIGHT.
A SECOND RESULT OF THE QUICK INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THAT WILL ENSUE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KTS IS LIKELY AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 800-1000 M^2/S^2 MAY ALSO
OCCUR. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR MIGHT ACTUALLY BE OUR SAVING
GRACE. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MODERATE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. IN FACT...THE 60 DEGREE DEW POINT LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US. WITH SO MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
LITTLE INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHAT WILL BE OF CONCERN IS THE 850MB JET
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 50 TO 75 KTS. THIS MEANS WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. I WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THIS ISOLATED WIND THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FROPA WILL BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM...OCCURRING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.  DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221533
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE MID STATE. HRRR INDICATES
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z...SO EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT EASTWARD AND EXTENDED THROUGH THAT TIME.
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...
A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES/CKV...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP
A LITTLE TODAY AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN.

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BNA AND CKV TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS SHORTLY AFTER THIS FORECAST CYCLE ENDS AT
12Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US DRY ACROSS THE MID-STATE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.  NOW SITTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IT HAS PUT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/TN/OHIO
VALLEYS...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.  THE CATCH IS...IT`S
BEEN SO DRY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING SO LONG TO SATURATE THAT
NOT MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND.  KCKV SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT THEY ONLY MEASURED A TRACE.  THESE
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE.  THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOST EVERYONE WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S ON THE PLATEAU.

ALREADY IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER ON SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER E TEXAS TONIGHT...MOVING NEWD...AND PASSING JUST TO THE
WEST OF US.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PUTS US IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO A NEGATIVE TILT SUNDAY MORNING
AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS PRETTY RAPIDLY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THINGS...FIRST...IT WILL BE WINDY
SUNDAY.  WHILE TODAY`S BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BRINK OF A WIND ADVISORY...
BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER TODAY OR EVEN TONIGHT.
A SECOND RESULT OF THE QUICK INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THAT WILL ENSUE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KTS IS LIKELY AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 800-1000 M^2/S^2 MAY ALSO
OCCUR. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR MIGHT ACTUALLY BE OUR SAVING
GRACE. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MODERATE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. IN FACT...THE 60 DEGREE DEW POINT LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US. WITH SO MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
LITTLE INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHAT WILL BE OF CONCERN IS THE 850MB JET
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 50 TO 75 KTS. THIS MEANS WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. I WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THIS ISOLATED WIND THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FROPA WILL BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM...OCCURRING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.  DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221533
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE MID STATE. HRRR INDICATES
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z...SO EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT EASTWARD AND EXTENDED THROUGH THAT TIME.
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...
A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES/CKV...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP
A LITTLE TODAY AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN.

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BNA AND CKV TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS SHORTLY AFTER THIS FORECAST CYCLE ENDS AT
12Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US DRY ACROSS THE MID-STATE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.  NOW SITTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IT HAS PUT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/TN/OHIO
VALLEYS...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.  THE CATCH IS...IT`S
BEEN SO DRY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING SO LONG TO SATURATE THAT
NOT MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND.  KCKV SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT THEY ONLY MEASURED A TRACE.  THESE
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE.  THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOST EVERYONE WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S ON THE PLATEAU.

ALREADY IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER ON SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER E TEXAS TONIGHT...MOVING NEWD...AND PASSING JUST TO THE
WEST OF US.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PUTS US IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO A NEGATIVE TILT SUNDAY MORNING
AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS PRETTY RAPIDLY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THINGS...FIRST...IT WILL BE WINDY
SUNDAY.  WHILE TODAY`S BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BRINK OF A WIND ADVISORY...
BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER TODAY OR EVEN TONIGHT.
A SECOND RESULT OF THE QUICK INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THAT WILL ENSUE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KTS IS LIKELY AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 800-1000 M^2/S^2 MAY ALSO
OCCUR. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR MIGHT ACTUALLY BE OUR SAVING
GRACE. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MODERATE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. IN FACT...THE 60 DEGREE DEW POINT LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US. WITH SO MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
LITTLE INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHAT WILL BE OF CONCERN IS THE 850MB JET
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 50 TO 75 KTS. THIS MEANS WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. I WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THIS ISOLATED WIND THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FROPA WILL BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM...OCCURRING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.  DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
537 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES/CKV...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP
A LITTLE TODAY AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN.

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BNA AND CKV TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS SHORTLY AFTER THIS FORECAST CYCLE ENDS AT
12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US DRY ACROSS THE MID-STATE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.  NOW SITTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IT HAS PUT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/TN/OHIO
VALLEYS...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.  THE CATCH IS...IT`S
BEEN SO DRY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING SO LONG TO SATURATE THAT
NOT MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND.  KCKV SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT THEY ONLY MEASURED A TRACE.  THESE
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE.  THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOST EVERYONE WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S ON THE PLATEAU.

ALREADY IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER ON SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER E TEXAS TONIGHT...MOVING NEWD...AND PASSING JUST TO THE
WEST OF US.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PUTS US IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO A NEGATIVE TILT SUNDAY MORNING
AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS PRETTY RAPIDLY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THINGS...FIRST...IT WILL BE WINDY
SUNDAY.  WHILE TODAY`S BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BRINK OF A WIND ADVISORY...
BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER TODAY OR EVEN TONIGHT.
A SECOND RESULT OF THE QUICK INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THAT WILL ENSUE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KTS IS LIKELY AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 800-1000 M^2/S^2 MAY ALSO
OCCUR. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR MIGHT ACTUALLY BE OUR SAVING
GRACE. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MODERATE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. IN FACT...THE 60 DEGREE DEW POINT LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US. WITH SO MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
LITTLE INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHAT WILL BE OF CONCERN IS THE 850MB JET
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 50 TO 75 KTS. THIS MEANS WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. I WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THIS ISOLATED WIND THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FROPA WILL BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM...OCCURRING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.  DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UNGER


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49






000
FXUS64 KOHX 221137
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
537 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES/CKV...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP
A LITTLE TODAY AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN.

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BNA AND CKV TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CIGS SHORTLY AFTER THIS FORECAST CYCLE ENDS AT
12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US DRY ACROSS THE MID-STATE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.  NOW SITTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IT HAS PUT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/TN/OHIO
VALLEYS...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.  THE CATCH IS...IT`S
BEEN SO DRY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING SO LONG TO SATURATE THAT
NOT MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND.  KCKV SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT THEY ONLY MEASURED A TRACE.  THESE
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE.  THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOST EVERYONE WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S ON THE PLATEAU.

ALREADY IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER ON SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER E TEXAS TONIGHT...MOVING NEWD...AND PASSING JUST TO THE
WEST OF US.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PUTS US IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO A NEGATIVE TILT SUNDAY MORNING
AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS PRETTY RAPIDLY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THINGS...FIRST...IT WILL BE WINDY
SUNDAY.  WHILE TODAY`S BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BRINK OF A WIND ADVISORY...
BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER TODAY OR EVEN TONIGHT.
A SECOND RESULT OF THE QUICK INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THAT WILL ENSUE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KTS IS LIKELY AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 800-1000 M^2/S^2 MAY ALSO
OCCUR. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR MIGHT ACTUALLY BE OUR SAVING
GRACE. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MODERATE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. IN FACT...THE 60 DEGREE DEW POINT LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US. WITH SO MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
LITTLE INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHAT WILL BE OF CONCERN IS THE 850MB JET
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 50 TO 75 KTS. THIS MEANS WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. I WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THIS ISOLATED WIND THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FROPA WILL BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM...OCCURRING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.  DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UNGER


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

49







000
FXUS64 KOHX 221016
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
416 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US DRY ACROSS THE MID-STATE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.  NOW SITTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IT HAS PUT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/TN/OHIO
VALLEYS...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.  THE CATCH IS...IT`S
BEEN SO DRY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING SO LONG TO SATURATE THAT
NOT MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND.  KCKV SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT THEY ONLY MEASURED A TRACE.  THESE
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE.  THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOST EVERYONE WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S ON THE PLATEAU.

ALREADY IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER ON SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER E TEXAS TONIGHT...MOVING NEWD...AND PASSING JUST TO THE
WEST OF US.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PUTS US IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO A NEGATIVE TILT SUNDAY MORNING
AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS PRETTY RAPIDLY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THINGS...FIRST...IT WILL BE WINDY
SUNDAY.  WHILE TODAY`S BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BRINK OF A WIND ADVISORY...
BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER TODAY OR EVEN TONIGHT.
A SECOND RESULT OF THE QUICK INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THAT WILL ENSUE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KTS IS LIKELY AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 800-1000 M^2/S^2 MAY ALSO
OCCUR. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR MIGHT ACTUALLY BE OUR SAVING
GRACE. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MODERATE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. IN FACT...THE 60 DEGREE DEW POINT LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US. WITH SO MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
LITTLE INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHAT WILL BE OF CONCERN IS THE 850MB JET
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 50 TO 75 KTS. THIS MEANS WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. I WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THIS ISOLATED WIND THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FROPA WILL BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM...OCCURRING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.  DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PD. SOME LOWER BKN CIGS ARE LIKELY AFT 00Z. OTW...LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP AFT 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  47  65  52 /  10  20 100  50
CLARKSVILLE    61  47  64  46 /  20  10 100  60
CROSSVILLE     56  43  58  52 /   0  20 100  40
COLUMBIA       62  49  63  52 /  10  30 100  40
LAWRENCEBURG   62  48  62  50 /  10  40 100  30
WAVERLY        63  50  64  47 /  20  20 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 221016
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
416 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US DRY ACROSS THE MID-STATE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.  NOW SITTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IT HAS PUT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/TN/OHIO
VALLEYS...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.  THE CATCH IS...IT`S
BEEN SO DRY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING SO LONG TO SATURATE THAT
NOT MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND.  KCKV SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT THEY ONLY MEASURED A TRACE.  THESE
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE.  THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.  IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOST EVERYONE WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S ON THE PLATEAU.

ALREADY IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER ON SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER E TEXAS TONIGHT...MOVING NEWD...AND PASSING JUST TO THE
WEST OF US.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PUTS US IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO A NEGATIVE TILT SUNDAY MORNING
AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS PRETTY RAPIDLY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THINGS...FIRST...IT WILL BE WINDY
SUNDAY.  WHILE TODAY`S BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX A BIT TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BRINK OF A WIND ADVISORY...
BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER TODAY OR EVEN TONIGHT.
A SECOND RESULT OF THE QUICK INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR THAT WILL ENSUE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70
KTS IS LIKELY AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 800-1000 M^2/S^2 MAY ALSO
OCCUR. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR MIGHT ACTUALLY BE OUR SAVING
GRACE. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MODERATE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. IN FACT...THE 60 DEGREE DEW POINT LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US. WITH SO MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
LITTLE INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ANY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHAT WILL BE OF CONCERN IS THE 850MB JET
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 50 TO 75 KTS. THIS MEANS WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. I WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THIS ISOLATED WIND THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FROPA WILL BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM...OCCURRING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.  SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.  DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PD. SOME LOWER BKN CIGS ARE LIKELY AFT 00Z. OTW...LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP AFT 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  47  65  52 /  10  20 100  50
CLARKSVILLE    61  47  64  46 /  20  10 100  60
CROSSVILLE     56  43  58  52 /   0  20 100  40
COLUMBIA       62  49  63  52 /  10  30 100  40
LAWRENCEBURG   62  48  62  50 /  10  40 100  30
WAVERLY        63  50  64  47 /  20  20 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220540
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PD. SOME LOWER BKN CIGS ARE LIKELY AFT 00Z. OTW...LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP AFT 14Z.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. SUBTROPICAL JET
SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. RADAR SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE INTEGRATED LIQUID NOT IN SUPPORT OF ANY
RAINFALL.

FOR THE UPDATE...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AREAS FOR
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS BY 2 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURGE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTW...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS DYNAMICS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MISSING FROM THE EQUATION. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING A DECENT DAY ACROSS
MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...TO THE TN RIVER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (NOTE THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
UNDER THE HIGH) HAS BEEN EATING AWAY AT THE CLOUDS...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MID STATE SUNNY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF...BUT
THE EAST HALF WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S. A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT FOR OUR VERY FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...BUT STILL SOME SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BIG CHANGES COME IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.THIS WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO SURGE INTO MID TN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX...AND SPC SHOWS ALL OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BE HEADING OFF INTO CANADA...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE ARE POSTING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST...BUT
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE PRECIP SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY LOOK QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 220540
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PD. SOME LOWER BKN CIGS ARE LIKELY AFT 00Z. OTW...LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP AFT 14Z.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. SUBTROPICAL JET
SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. RADAR SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE INTEGRATED LIQUID NOT IN SUPPORT OF ANY
RAINFALL.

FOR THE UPDATE...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AREAS FOR
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS BY 2 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURGE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTW...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS DYNAMICS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MISSING FROM THE EQUATION. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING A DECENT DAY ACROSS
MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...TO THE TN RIVER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (NOTE THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
UNDER THE HIGH) HAS BEEN EATING AWAY AT THE CLOUDS...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MID STATE SUNNY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF...BUT
THE EAST HALF WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S. A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT FOR OUR VERY FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...BUT STILL SOME SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BIG CHANGES COME IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.THIS WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO SURGE INTO MID TN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX...AND SPC SHOWS ALL OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BE HEADING OFF INTO CANADA...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE ARE POSTING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST...BUT
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE PRECIP SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY LOOK QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 220148
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. SUBTROPICAL JET
SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. RADAR SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE INTEGRATED LIQUID NOT IN SUPPORT OF ANY
RAINFALL.

FOR THE UPDATE...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AREAS FOR
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS BY 2 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURGE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTW...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS DYNAMICS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MISSING FROM THE EQUATION. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING A DECENT DAY ACROSS
MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...TO THE TN RIVER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (NOTE THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
UNDER THE HIGH) HAS BEEN EATING AWAY AT THE CLOUDS...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MID STATE SUNNY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF...BUT
THE EAST HALF WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S. A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT FOR OUR VERY FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...BUT STILL SOME SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BIG CHANGES COME IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.THIS WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO SURGE INTO MID TN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX...AND SPC SHOWS ALL OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BE HEADING OFF INTO CANADA...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE ARE POSTING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST...BUT
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE PRECIP SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY LOOK QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      38  61  48  64 /  05  05  30 100
CLARKSVILLE    37  61  47  64 /  20  10  20 100
CROSSVILLE     32  56  43  61 /   0   0  30 100
COLUMBIA       37  62  49  64 /  05  05  40 100
LAWRENCEBURG   38  61  49  65 /  05  05  50 100
WAVERLY        39  61  49  64 /  20  10  40 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KOHX 220148
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. SUBTROPICAL JET
SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. RADAR SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE INTEGRATED LIQUID NOT IN SUPPORT OF ANY
RAINFALL.

FOR THE UPDATE...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AREAS FOR
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS BY 2 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURGE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTW...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS DYNAMICS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MISSING FROM THE EQUATION. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING A DECENT DAY ACROSS
MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...TO THE TN RIVER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (NOTE THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
UNDER THE HIGH) HAS BEEN EATING AWAY AT THE CLOUDS...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MID STATE SUNNY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF...BUT
THE EAST HALF WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S. A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT FOR OUR VERY FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...BUT STILL SOME SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BIG CHANGES COME IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.THIS WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO SURGE INTO MID TN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX...AND SPC SHOWS ALL OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BE HEADING OFF INTO CANADA...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE ARE POSTING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST...BUT
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE PRECIP SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY LOOK QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      38  61  48  64 /  05  05  30 100
CLARKSVILLE    37  61  47  64 /  20  10  20 100
CROSSVILLE     32  56  43  61 /   0   0  30 100
COLUMBIA       37  62  49  64 /  05  05  40 100
LAWRENCEBURG   38  61  49  65 /  05  05  50 100
WAVERLY        39  61  49  64 /  20  10  40 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 212327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURGE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTW...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS DYNAMICS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MISSING FROM THE EQUATION. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING A DECENT DAY ACROSS
MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...TO THE TN RIVER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (NOTE THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
UNDER THE HIGH) HAS BEEN EATING AWAY AT THE CLOUDS...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MID STATE SUNNY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF...BUT
THE EAST HALF WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S. A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT FOR OUR VERY FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...BUT STILL SOME SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BIG CHANGES COME IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.THIS WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO SURGE INTO MID TN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX...AND SPC SHOWS ALL OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BE HEADING OFF INTO CANADA...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE ARE POSTING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST...BUT
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE PRECIP SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY LOOK QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 212327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURGE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTW...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS DYNAMICS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MISSING FROM THE EQUATION. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING A DECENT DAY ACROSS
MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...TO THE TN RIVER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (NOTE THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
UNDER THE HIGH) HAS BEEN EATING AWAY AT THE CLOUDS...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MID STATE SUNNY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF...BUT
THE EAST HALF WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S. A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT FOR OUR VERY FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...BUT STILL SOME SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BIG CHANGES COME IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.THIS WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO SURGE INTO MID TN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX...AND SPC SHOWS ALL OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BE HEADING OFF INTO CANADA...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE ARE POSTING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST...BUT
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE PRECIP SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY LOOK QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 212016
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING A DECENT DAY ACROSS
MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...TO THE TN RIVER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (NOTE THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
UNDER THE HIGH) HAS BEEN EATING AWAY AT THE CLOUDS...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MID STATE SUNNY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF...BUT
THE EAST HALF WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S. A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT FOR OUR VERY FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...BUT STILL SOME SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BIG CHANGES COME IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.THIS WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO SURGE INTO MID TN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX...AND SPC SHOWS ALL OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BE HEADING OFF INTO CANADA...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE ARE POSTING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST...BUT
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE PRECIP SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY LOOK QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  61  48  64 /  05  05  30 100
CLARKSVILLE    39  61  47  64 /  20  10  20 100
CROSSVILLE     34  56  43  61 /   0   0  30 100
COLUMBIA       39  62  49  64 /  05  05  40 100
LAWRENCEBURG   40  61  49  65 /  05  05  50 100
WAVERLY        41  61  49  64 /  20  10  40 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 212016
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING A DECENT DAY ACROSS
MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...TO THE TN RIVER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (NOTE THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
UNDER THE HIGH) HAS BEEN EATING AWAY AT THE CLOUDS...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MID STATE SUNNY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF...BUT
THE EAST HALF WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S. A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT FOR OUR VERY FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...BUT STILL SOME SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BIG CHANGES COME IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.THIS WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO SURGE INTO MID TN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX...AND SPC SHOWS ALL OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BE HEADING OFF INTO CANADA...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE ARE POSTING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST...BUT
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE PRECIP SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY LOOK QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  61  48  64 /  05  05  30 100
CLARKSVILLE    39  61  47  64 /  20  10  20 100
CROSSVILLE     34  56  43  61 /   0   0  30 100
COLUMBIA       39  62  49  64 /  05  05  40 100
LAWRENCEBURG   40  61  49  65 /  05  05  50 100
WAVERLY        41  61  49  64 /  20  10  40 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KOHX 211739
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS FOR ALL TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK OFF TO THE WEST
IS DISSIPATING A BIT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...HOWEVER BKN TO OVC SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR KBNA AND KCKV. FOR NOW VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS OTHER SITES CURRENTLY UNDER THE CLOUD DECK OUT WEST HAVE
CEILINGS AROUND 5KFT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. JUST 24 HOURS AGO WE WERE
WATCHING A COLD FRONT INCH ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALREADY SHIFTING TO OUR EAST, MAKING
WAY FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE MID STATE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 60`S. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC DOES NOT PUSH ANY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK AREAS THIS FAR NORTH, AND THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN SUNDAY`S
FORECAST. BY 00Z MONDAY, THE LOW ENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986-990 MB. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY, BUT WITH FAR LESS FANFARE THAN
SUNDAY`S ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY AFTER THE
FROPA, AS THE UPPER TROUGH DOESN`T EVEN COME THROUGH UNTIL MAYBE
WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 211739
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS FOR ALL TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK OFF TO THE WEST
IS DISSIPATING A BIT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...HOWEVER BKN TO OVC SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR KBNA AND KCKV. FOR NOW VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS OTHER SITES CURRENTLY UNDER THE CLOUD DECK OUT WEST HAVE
CEILINGS AROUND 5KFT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. JUST 24 HOURS AGO WE WERE
WATCHING A COLD FRONT INCH ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALREADY SHIFTING TO OUR EAST, MAKING
WAY FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE MID STATE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 60`S. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC DOES NOT PUSH ANY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK AREAS THIS FAR NORTH, AND THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN SUNDAY`S
FORECAST. BY 00Z MONDAY, THE LOW ENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986-990 MB. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY, BUT WITH FAR LESS FANFARE THAN
SUNDAY`S ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY AFTER THE
FROPA, AS THE UPPER TROUGH DOESN`T EVEN COME THROUGH UNTIL MAYBE
WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 211120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST TODAY AND TURNING SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. JUST 24 HOURS AGO WE WERE
WATCHING A COLD FRONT INCH ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALREADY SHIFTING TO OUR EAST, MAKING
WAY FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE MID STATE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 60`S. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC DOES NOT PUSH ANY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK AREAS THIS FAR NORTH, AND THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN SUNDAY`S
FORECAST. BY 00Z MONDAY, THE LOW ENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986-990 MB. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY, BUT WITH FAR LESS FANFARE THAN
SUNDAY`S ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY AFTER THE
FROPA, AS THE UPPER TROUGH DOESN`T EVEN COME THROUGH UNTIL MAYBE
WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 211120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST TODAY AND TURNING SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. JUST 24 HOURS AGO WE WERE
WATCHING A COLD FRONT INCH ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALREADY SHIFTING TO OUR EAST, MAKING
WAY FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE MID STATE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 60`S. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC DOES NOT PUSH ANY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK AREAS THIS FAR NORTH, AND THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN SUNDAY`S
FORECAST. BY 00Z MONDAY, THE LOW ENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986-990 MB. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY, BUT WITH FAR LESS FANFARE THAN
SUNDAY`S ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY AFTER THE
FROPA, AS THE UPPER TROUGH DOESN`T EVEN COME THROUGH UNTIL MAYBE
WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27









000
FXUS64 KOHX 210802
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
202 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. JUST 24 HOURS AGO WE WERE
WATCHING A COLD FRONT INCH ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALREADY SHIFTING TO OUR EAST, MAKING
WAY FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE MID STATE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 60`S. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC DOES NOT PUSH ANY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK AREAS THIS FAR NORTH, AND THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN SUNDAY`S
FORECAST. BY 00Z MONDAY, THE LOW ENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986-990 MB. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY, BUT WITH FAR LESS FANFARE THAN
SUNDAY`S ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY AFTER THE
FROPA, AS THE UPPER TROUGH DOESN`T EVEN COME THROUGH UNTIL MAYBE
WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  39  59  48 /   0  05  05  40
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  61  47 /  10  20  10  50
CROSSVILLE     47  34  55  43 /   0   0   0  30
COLUMBIA       53  40  61  49 /  05  05  05  40
LAWRENCEBURG   56  40  61  49 /  05  05  05  40
WAVERLY        50  41  61  49 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210802
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
202 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. JUST 24 HOURS AGO WE WERE
WATCHING A COLD FRONT INCH ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALREADY SHIFTING TO OUR EAST, MAKING
WAY FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE MID STATE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 60`S. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC DOES NOT PUSH ANY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK AREAS THIS FAR NORTH, AND THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN SUNDAY`S
FORECAST. BY 00Z MONDAY, THE LOW ENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986-990 MB. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY, BUT WITH FAR LESS FANFARE THAN
SUNDAY`S ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY AFTER THE
FROPA, AS THE UPPER TROUGH DOESN`T EVEN COME THROUGH UNTIL MAYBE
WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  39  59  48 /   0  05  05  40
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  61  47 /  10  20  10  50
CROSSVILLE     47  34  55  43 /   0   0   0  30
COLUMBIA       53  40  61  49 /  05  05  05  40
LAWRENCEBURG   56  40  61  49 /  05  05  05  40
WAVERLY        50  41  61  49 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 210504
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIP EAST ON FRIDAY GIVING MID
STATE A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE TURN IN THE WIND DIRECTION TO A MORE
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND DURING THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
ONGOING AROUND THE 295-300 KELVIN SURFACES THAT WILL KEEP
ALTOCUMULUS SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
TRIES TO DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER CHANCE LOOKS SMALL.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210504
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIP EAST ON FRIDAY GIVING MID
STATE A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE TURN IN THE WIND DIRECTION TO A MORE
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND DURING THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
ONGOING AROUND THE 295-300 KELVIN SURFACES THAT WILL KEEP
ALTOCUMULUS SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
TRIES TO DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER CHANCE LOOKS SMALL.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






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