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000
FXUS64 KOHX 210812
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
312 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID
STATE WITH OBS INDICATING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
A WHILE WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 40S. 00Z MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FORM THE NORTHWEST...WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 70S. A FEW SHOWERS
LOOK TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
POPS WARRANTED.

MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH THE
FORECAST SINCE BOTH THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE QUITE
ACTIVE AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHICH WILL INFLUENCE OUR AREA
MORE. BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
INTO THE 60S IN THE COOLER AIRMASS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STALLED
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. GFS APPEARS TOO FAST SPREADING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUS WILL KEEP POPS LOW
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO RETURN
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SLOWER/STRONGER POLAR JET ON GFS
KEEPING WARM FRONT OVER/SOUTH OF OUR AREA WHILE ECMWF TAKES WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. STRENGTH OF APPROACHING STRONG
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS ARGUES FOR THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH WPC IS ALSO SIDING WITH...AND WOULD INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
RANGE...HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT WITH HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TO ROUND
OUT THE WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUED VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR
JET STREAMS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  50  73  46 /  10  20  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    68  50  70  44 /  20  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     64  46  67  43 /  10  10  30  30
COLUMBIA       69  49  73  48 /  05  10  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   69  48  72  48 /  05  10  30  30
WAVERLY        68  50  70  46 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210812
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
312 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID
STATE WITH OBS INDICATING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
A WHILE WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 40S. 00Z MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FORM THE NORTHWEST...WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 70S. A FEW SHOWERS
LOOK TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
POPS WARRANTED.

MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH THE
FORECAST SINCE BOTH THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE QUITE
ACTIVE AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHICH WILL INFLUENCE OUR AREA
MORE. BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
INTO THE 60S IN THE COOLER AIRMASS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STALLED
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. GFS APPEARS TOO FAST SPREADING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUS WILL KEEP POPS LOW
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO RETURN
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SLOWER/STRONGER POLAR JET ON GFS
KEEPING WARM FRONT OVER/SOUTH OF OUR AREA WHILE ECMWF TAKES WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. STRENGTH OF APPROACHING STRONG
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS ARGUES FOR THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH WPC IS ALSO SIDING WITH...AND WOULD INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
RANGE...HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT WITH HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TO ROUND
OUT THE WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUED VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR
JET STREAMS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  50  73  46 /  10  20  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    68  50  70  44 /  20  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     64  46  67  43 /  10  10  30  30
COLUMBIA       69  49  73  48 /  05  10  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   69  48  72  48 /  05  10  30  30
WAVERLY        68  50  70  46 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210456
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WSW
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10G18KT ON TUESDAY. SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS PLATEAU. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210456
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WSW
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10G18KT ON TUESDAY. SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS PLATEAU. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210456
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WSW
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10G18KT ON TUESDAY. SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS PLATEAU. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210456
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WSW
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10G18KT ON TUESDAY. SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS PLATEAU. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210048 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS PLATEAU. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG/STATUS...ESPECIALLY FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210048 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS PLATEAU. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG/STATUS...ESPECIALLY FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 210048 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS PLATEAU. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG/STATUS...ESPECIALLY FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 210048 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING SHWRS PLATEAU. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG/STATUS...ESPECIALLY FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 202336
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
636 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG/STATUS...ESPECIALLY FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 202336
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
636 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG/STATUS...ESPECIALLY FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 202336
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
636 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG/STATUS...ESPECIALLY FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 202336
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
636 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
FOG/STATUS...ESPECIALLY FOR CSV...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 202255 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 202255 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 202255 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 202255 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. HAVE TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITIONS...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 202015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      43  68  49  74 /  10  10  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    40  69  48  70 /  05  20  30  40
CROSSVILLE     39  63  46  69 /  20  10  10  40
COLUMBIA       43  69  49  74 /  10  10  10  30
LAWRENCEBURG   41  70  47  74 /  05  10  10  30
WAVERLY        40  69  48  71 /  05  20  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 202015
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY
HELPING TO PROMOTE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING ONLY. OTW...CLEARING SKIES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS...NEAR 40 ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

ON TUESDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL RULE FOR THE 1ST PORTION OF THE
DAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUES AFT NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE ON
WED. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO AS TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A FEW TSTMS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
MID STATE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NT AND SAT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...THE
SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY IN QUESTION WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND SOUTH
AND WEAKEN. BECAUSE THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TN...THIS IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. STILL THOUGH...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES JUST BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 65 TO 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      43  68  49  74 /  10  10  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    40  69  48  70 /  05  20  30  40
CROSSVILLE     39  63  46  69 /  20  10  10  40
COLUMBIA       43  69  49  74 /  10  10  10  30
LAWRENCEBURG   41  70  47  74 /  05  10  10  30
WAVERLY        40  69  48  71 /  05  20  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
121 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF CKV AND THAT
SITE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. BNA MAY SEE SOME VCSH THROUGH 21Z...THEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IMPACTING CSV WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF...HOWEVER CIGS MAY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
121 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF CKV AND THAT
SITE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. BNA MAY SEE SOME VCSH THROUGH 21Z...THEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IMPACTING CSV WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF...HOWEVER CIGS MAY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
121 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF CKV AND THAT
SITE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. BNA MAY SEE SOME VCSH THROUGH 21Z...THEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IMPACTING CSV WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF...HOWEVER CIGS MAY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
121 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF CKV AND THAT
SITE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. BNA MAY SEE SOME VCSH THROUGH 21Z...THEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IMPACTING CSV WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF...HOWEVER CIGS MAY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201625
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1125 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ACCORDING TO WIND DIRECTION AND TEMPS, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOW 60S...WHILE TEMPS
TO THE WEST ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...AND A FEW MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE EAST. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST NECESSARY... ONLY UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN OBS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT BNA/CKV THROUGH 21Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THEREAFTER...WITH MVFR CIGS AT CSV THROUGH 21/01Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY BY 15Z. ISOLATED
-SHRA POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN TAFS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201625
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1125 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ACCORDING TO WIND DIRECTION AND TEMPS, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOW 60S...WHILE TEMPS
TO THE WEST ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...AND A FEW MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE EAST. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST NECESSARY... ONLY UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN OBS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT BNA/CKV THROUGH 21Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THEREAFTER...WITH MVFR CIGS AT CSV THROUGH 21/01Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY BY 15Z. ISOLATED
-SHRA POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN TAFS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201625
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1125 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ACCORDING TO WIND DIRECTION AND TEMPS, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOW 60S...WHILE TEMPS
TO THE WEST ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...AND A FEW MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE EAST. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST NECESSARY... ONLY UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN OBS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT BNA/CKV THROUGH 21Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THEREAFTER...WITH MVFR CIGS AT CSV THROUGH 21/01Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY BY 15Z. ISOLATED
-SHRA POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN TAFS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201229
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
729 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT BNA/CKV THROUGH 21Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THEREAFTER...WITH MVFR CIGS AT CSV THROUGH 21/01Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY BY 15Z. ISOLATED
-SHRA POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN TAFS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT SEVERE TSTORM WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 7 AM...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED SOONER AS THE LINE
EXITS THE CWA. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE REGION MAY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STEMS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE DRY...WITH LOW RH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 6KFT-9KFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH DOES SUPPORT MUCH LOWER RH VALUES THAN WHAT THE
REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. UPPER RIDGING DOES NOT
BUILD IN THANKS TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW THAT REMAINS SPINNING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SOME PRECIP CHANCES MOVE BACK IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
COOL OFF TO AROUND 4-8C OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS RELIEF ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...UNLESS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SOONER TO
WARM UP THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ATTM...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEY DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN TERMS OF THE ECMWF
HAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE GFS TRIES TO SWING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH. DIDNT PUT MENTION
OF POPS IN JUST YET DUE TO THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201229
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
729 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT BNA/CKV THROUGH 21Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THEREAFTER...WITH MVFR CIGS AT CSV THROUGH 21/01Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY BY 15Z. ISOLATED
-SHRA POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN TAFS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT SEVERE TSTORM WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 7 AM...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED SOONER AS THE LINE
EXITS THE CWA. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE REGION MAY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STEMS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE DRY...WITH LOW RH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 6KFT-9KFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH DOES SUPPORT MUCH LOWER RH VALUES THAN WHAT THE
REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. UPPER RIDGING DOES NOT
BUILD IN THANKS TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW THAT REMAINS SPINNING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SOME PRECIP CHANCES MOVE BACK IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
COOL OFF TO AROUND 4-8C OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS RELIEF ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...UNLESS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SOONER TO
WARM UP THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ATTM...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEY DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN TERMS OF THE ECMWF
HAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE GFS TRIES TO SWING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH. DIDNT PUT MENTION
OF POPS IN JUST YET DUE TO THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 201229
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
729 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT BNA/CKV THROUGH 21Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THEREAFTER...WITH MVFR CIGS AT CSV THROUGH 21/01Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY BY 15Z. ISOLATED
-SHRA POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN TAFS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT SEVERE TSTORM WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 7 AM...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED SOONER AS THE LINE
EXITS THE CWA. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE REGION MAY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STEMS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE DRY...WITH LOW RH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 6KFT-9KFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH DOES SUPPORT MUCH LOWER RH VALUES THAN WHAT THE
REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. UPPER RIDGING DOES NOT
BUILD IN THANKS TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW THAT REMAINS SPINNING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SOME PRECIP CHANCES MOVE BACK IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
COOL OFF TO AROUND 4-8C OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS RELIEF ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...UNLESS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SOONER TO
WARM UP THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ATTM...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEY DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN TERMS OF THE ECMWF
HAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE GFS TRIES TO SWING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH. DIDNT PUT MENTION
OF POPS IN JUST YET DUE TO THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 201229
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
729 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT BNA/CKV THROUGH 21Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THEREAFTER...WITH MVFR CIGS AT CSV THROUGH 21/01Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY BY 15Z. ISOLATED
-SHRA POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN TAFS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT SEVERE TSTORM WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 7 AM...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED SOONER AS THE LINE
EXITS THE CWA. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE REGION MAY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STEMS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE DRY...WITH LOW RH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 6KFT-9KFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH DOES SUPPORT MUCH LOWER RH VALUES THAN WHAT THE
REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. UPPER RIDGING DOES NOT
BUILD IN THANKS TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW THAT REMAINS SPINNING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SOME PRECIP CHANCES MOVE BACK IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
COOL OFF TO AROUND 4-8C OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS RELIEF ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...UNLESS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SOONER TO
WARM UP THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ATTM...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEY DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN TERMS OF THE ECMWF
HAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE GFS TRIES TO SWING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH. DIDNT PUT MENTION
OF POPS IN JUST YET DUE TO THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200838
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT SEVERE TSTORM WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 7 AM...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED SOONER AS THE LINE
EXITS THE CWA. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE REGION MAY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STEMS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE DRY...WITH LOW RH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 6KFT-9KFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH DOES SUPPORT MUCH LOWER RH VALUES THAN WHAT THE
REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. UPPER RIDGING DOES NOT
BUILD IN THANKS TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW THAT REMAINS SPINNING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SOME PRECIP CHANCES MOVE BACK IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
COOL OFF TO AROUND 4-8C OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS RELIEF ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...UNLESS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SOONER TO
WARM UP THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ATTM...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEY DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN TERMS OF THE ECMWF
HAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE GFS TRIES TO SWING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH. DIDNT PUT MENTION
OF POPS IN JUST YET DUE TO THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  45  70  51 /  30  10  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    64  43  68  48 /  20  05  10  30
CROSSVILLE     65  43  63  47 /  50  20  10  10
COLUMBIA       66  43  69  50 /  20  10  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  43  69  50 /  20  05  10  10
WAVERLY        65  43  70  52 /  20  05  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200838
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT SEVERE TSTORM WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 7 AM...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED SOONER AS THE LINE
EXITS THE CWA. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE REGION MAY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STEMS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE DRY...WITH LOW RH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 6KFT-9KFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH DOES SUPPORT MUCH LOWER RH VALUES THAN WHAT THE
REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. UPPER RIDGING DOES NOT
BUILD IN THANKS TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW THAT REMAINS SPINNING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SOME PRECIP CHANCES MOVE BACK IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
COOL OFF TO AROUND 4-8C OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS RELIEF ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...UNLESS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SOONER TO
WARM UP THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ATTM...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEY DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN TERMS OF THE ECMWF
HAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE GFS TRIES TO SWING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH. DIDNT PUT MENTION
OF POPS IN JUST YET DUE TO THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  45  70  51 /  30  10  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    64  43  68  48 /  20  05  10  30
CROSSVILLE     65  43  63  47 /  50  20  10  10
COLUMBIA       66  43  69  50 /  20  10  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  43  69  50 /  20  05  10  10
WAVERLY        65  43  70  52 /  20  05  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200838
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT SEVERE TSTORM WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 7 AM...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED SOONER AS THE LINE
EXITS THE CWA. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE REGION MAY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STEMS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE DRY...WITH LOW RH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 6KFT-9KFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH DOES SUPPORT MUCH LOWER RH VALUES THAN WHAT THE
REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. UPPER RIDGING DOES NOT
BUILD IN THANKS TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW THAT REMAINS SPINNING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SOME PRECIP CHANCES MOVE BACK IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
COOL OFF TO AROUND 4-8C OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS RELIEF ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...UNLESS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SOONER TO
WARM UP THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ATTM...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEY DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN TERMS OF THE ECMWF
HAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE GFS TRIES TO SWING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH. DIDNT PUT MENTION
OF POPS IN JUST YET DUE TO THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  45  70  51 /  30  10  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    64  43  68  48 /  20  05  10  30
CROSSVILLE     65  43  63  47 /  50  20  10  10
COLUMBIA       66  43  69  50 /  20  10  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  43  69  50 /  20  05  10  10
WAVERLY        65  43  70  52 /  20  05  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200838
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT SEVERE TSTORM WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 7 AM...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED SOONER AS THE LINE
EXITS THE CWA. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE REGION MAY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STEMS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE DRY...WITH LOW RH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 6KFT-9KFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH DOES SUPPORT MUCH LOWER RH VALUES THAN WHAT THE
REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. UPPER RIDGING DOES NOT
BUILD IN THANKS TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW THAT REMAINS SPINNING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SOME PRECIP CHANCES MOVE BACK IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
COOL OFF TO AROUND 4-8C OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS RELIEF ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...UNLESS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN SOONER TO
WARM UP THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST AROUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ATTM...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEY DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN TERMS OF THE ECMWF
HAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE GFS TRIES TO SWING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH. DIDNT PUT MENTION
OF POPS IN JUST YET DUE TO THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  45  70  51 /  30  10  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    64  43  68  48 /  20  05  10  30
CROSSVILLE     65  43  63  47 /  50  20  10  10
COLUMBIA       66  43  69  50 /  20  10  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  43  69  50 /  20  05  10  10
WAVERLY        65  43  70  52 /  20  05  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200431 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THRU AT LEAST 20/15Z DUE TO CEILING
AND VSBY FLUCTUATIONS AND SHWR/TSTM IMPACTS. AT 06Z...CSV SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCING SHWRS/TSTMS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS
LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH AN AREA OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS
BEHIND MOVES INTO MID STATE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE EXPERIENCE BY NO
LATER THAN 07Z BNA...WITH CSV AROUND 09Z. EXPECT THESE LINGERING SHWRS/SCT
TSTMS BEHIND MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS...WITH
MVFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS DEVELOPING ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 20/15Z...
WITH VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE 20/18Z AND AFTERWARDS. CEILING EROSION EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES BY 21/02Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 818 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE WORDING IN THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT FOR THE THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
TO MATCH CURRENT REGIONAL SFC OBS....SATELLITE...AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NW INTO
NC PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD WITH
DEVELOPING ISO STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT GENERALLY MOVING THIS
WAY ALSO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE NASHVILLE METRO
AREA PRESENTLY. EXPECT MAYBE SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU 05Z ACROSS REST OF MID
STATE. MAIN CONCERN IS LINE OF SVR CONVECTION APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AS OF 01Z AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE MID STATE`S WX AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION OF THE MID STATE BY 05Z.

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING BRUNT OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER AR MOVING
GENERALLY NE OF MID STATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY 05Z...WITH
CONVECTION PRESENTLY ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA MOVING NEWD DRAGGING A LINE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE MID STATE. 00Z MON KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND INDICES
SHOWING RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND LOW SHEAR VALUES AS OF THIS TIME...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PCPN WATER VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENTS IN INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT CONTINUING. 01Z CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK CURTAILING THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTM AREA ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
AND NOW GENERALLY LIMITING THIS POSSIBILITY TO LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU.
SPC STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING AS THIS CURRENT LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER MOVES EWD TONIGHT PER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS ALL SAID...DO EXPECT A QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE
THRU THE MID STATE FROM AROUND 11 PM ONWARD W THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS
E...BUT WILL IT STILL CONTAIN STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH IT? ALL INDICATIONS
AT THIS TIME IS THAT IT IS BORDERLINE IF IT DOES OR NOT...AS SFC FRONT ITSELF
SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER BY 06Z AND THEN PUSH EWD INTO THE MID STATE
JUST W OF PLATEAU BY 12Z...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS THE MID STATE. THUS UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT
THE ABOVE REASONING/TIMINGS MENTIONED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU AT LEAST 20/15Z DUE TO CEILING AND VSBY
FLUCTUATIONS AND SHWR/TSTM IMPACTS. EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS NEAR CKV THRU 20/05Z PER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DYNAMICS. EXPECTING BRUNT OF SHWRS/TSTMS BETWEEN 20/05Z W - 20/11Z E
AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THRU MID STATE. MVFR CEILINGS TO IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AT TAF SITES. EXPECT LINGERING SHWRS BEHIND MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS...WITH MVFR FOG INDUCED
VSBYS DEVELOPING ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 20/15Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 20/18Z AND AFTERWARDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -3.3 AND A CAPE OF 962 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.44 INCHES
AND A K-INDEX OF 34. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES
THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DOES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EITHER CYCLONIC OR ZONAL, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY,
AND SO TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200431 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THRU AT LEAST 20/15Z DUE TO CEILING
AND VSBY FLUCTUATIONS AND SHWR/TSTM IMPACTS. AT 06Z...CSV SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCING SHWRS/TSTMS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS
LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH AN AREA OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS
BEHIND MOVES INTO MID STATE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE EXPERIENCE BY NO
LATER THAN 07Z BNA...WITH CSV AROUND 09Z. EXPECT THESE LINGERING SHWRS/SCT
TSTMS BEHIND MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS...WITH
MVFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS DEVELOPING ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 20/15Z...
WITH VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE 20/18Z AND AFTERWARDS. CEILING EROSION EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES BY 21/02Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 818 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE WORDING IN THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT FOR THE THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
TO MATCH CURRENT REGIONAL SFC OBS....SATELLITE...AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NW INTO
NC PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD WITH
DEVELOPING ISO STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT GENERALLY MOVING THIS
WAY ALSO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE NASHVILLE METRO
AREA PRESENTLY. EXPECT MAYBE SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU 05Z ACROSS REST OF MID
STATE. MAIN CONCERN IS LINE OF SVR CONVECTION APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AS OF 01Z AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE MID STATE`S WX AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION OF THE MID STATE BY 05Z.

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING BRUNT OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER AR MOVING
GENERALLY NE OF MID STATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY 05Z...WITH
CONVECTION PRESENTLY ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA MOVING NEWD DRAGGING A LINE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE MID STATE. 00Z MON KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND INDICES
SHOWING RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND LOW SHEAR VALUES AS OF THIS TIME...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PCPN WATER VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENTS IN INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT CONTINUING. 01Z CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK CURTAILING THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTM AREA ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
AND NOW GENERALLY LIMITING THIS POSSIBILITY TO LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU.
SPC STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING AS THIS CURRENT LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER MOVES EWD TONIGHT PER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS ALL SAID...DO EXPECT A QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE
THRU THE MID STATE FROM AROUND 11 PM ONWARD W THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS
E...BUT WILL IT STILL CONTAIN STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH IT? ALL INDICATIONS
AT THIS TIME IS THAT IT IS BORDERLINE IF IT DOES OR NOT...AS SFC FRONT ITSELF
SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER BY 06Z AND THEN PUSH EWD INTO THE MID STATE
JUST W OF PLATEAU BY 12Z...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS THE MID STATE. THUS UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT
THE ABOVE REASONING/TIMINGS MENTIONED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU AT LEAST 20/15Z DUE TO CEILING AND VSBY
FLUCTUATIONS AND SHWR/TSTM IMPACTS. EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS NEAR CKV THRU 20/05Z PER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DYNAMICS. EXPECTING BRUNT OF SHWRS/TSTMS BETWEEN 20/05Z W - 20/11Z E
AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THRU MID STATE. MVFR CEILINGS TO IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AT TAF SITES. EXPECT LINGERING SHWRS BEHIND MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS...WITH MVFR FOG INDUCED
VSBYS DEVELOPING ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 20/15Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 20/18Z AND AFTERWARDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -3.3 AND A CAPE OF 962 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.44 INCHES
AND A K-INDEX OF 34. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES
THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DOES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EITHER CYCLONIC OR ZONAL, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY,
AND SO TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 200118 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
818 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE WORDING IN THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT FOR THE THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
TO MATCH CURRENT REGIONAL SFC OBS....SATELLITE...AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NW INTO
NC PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD WITH
DEVELOPING ISO STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT GENERALLY MOVING THIS
WAY ALSO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE NASHVILLE METRO
AREA PRESENTLY. EXPECT MAYBE SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU 05Z ACROSS REST OF MID
STATE. MAIN CONCERN IS LINE OF SVR CONVECTION APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AS OF 01Z AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE MID STATE`S WX AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION OF THE MID STATE BY 05Z.

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING BRUNT OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER AR MOVING
GENERALLY NE OF MID STATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY 05Z...WITH
CONVECTION PRESENTLY ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA MOVING NEWD DRAGGING A LINE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE MID STATE. 00Z MON KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND INDICES
SHOWING RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND LOW SHEAR VALUES AS OF THIS TIME...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PCPN WATER VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENTS IN INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT CONTINUING. 01Z CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK CURTAILING THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTM AREA ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
AND NOW GENERALLY LIMITING THIS POSSIBILITY TO LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU.
SPC STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING AS THIS CURRENT LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER MOVES EWD TONIGHT PER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS ALL SAID...DO EXPECT A QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE
THRU THE MID STATE FROM AROUND 11 PM ONWARD W THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS
E...BUT WILL IT STILL CONTAIN STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH IT? ALL INDICATIONS
AT THIS TIME IS THAT IT IS BORDERLINE IF IT DOES OR NOT...AS SFC FRONT ITSELF
SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER BY 06Z AND THEN PUSH EWD INTO THE MID STATE
JUST W OF PLATEAU BY 12Z...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS THE MID STATE. THUS UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT
THE ABOVE REASONING/TIMINGS MENTIONED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU AT LEAST 20/15Z DUE TO CEILING AND VSBY
FLUCTUATIONS AND SHWR/TSTM IMPACTS. EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS NEAR CKV THRU 20/05Z PER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DYNAMICS. EXPECTING BRUNT OF SHWRS/TSTMS BETWEEN 20/05Z W - 20/11Z E
AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THRU MID STATE. MVFR CEILINGS TO IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AT TAF SITES. EXPECT LINGERING SHWRS BEHIND MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS...WITH MVFR FOG INDUCED
VSBYS DEVELOPING ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 20/15Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 20/18Z AND AFTERWARDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -3.3 AND A CAPE OF 962 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.44 INCHES
AND A K-INDEX OF 34. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES
THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DOES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EITHER CYCLONIC OR ZONAL, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY,
AND SO TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      61  67  44  69 /  70  30  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    58  66  42  68 /  70  30  05  10
CROSSVILLE     59  63  43  64 /  70  60  20  10
COLUMBIA       60  68  44  70 /  70  30  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   58  68  44  70 /  70  30  10  10
WAVERLY        58  68  43  69 /  70  30  05  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 200118 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
818 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE WORDING IN THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT FOR THE THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
TO MATCH CURRENT REGIONAL SFC OBS....SATELLITE...AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG
WITH TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NW INTO
NC PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD WITH
DEVELOPING ISO STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT GENERALLY MOVING THIS
WAY ALSO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE NASHVILLE METRO
AREA PRESENTLY. EXPECT MAYBE SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU 05Z ACROSS REST OF MID
STATE. MAIN CONCERN IS LINE OF SVR CONVECTION APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AS OF 01Z AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE MID STATE`S WX AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION OF THE MID STATE BY 05Z.

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING BRUNT OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER AR MOVING
GENERALLY NE OF MID STATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY 05Z...WITH
CONVECTION PRESENTLY ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA MOVING NEWD DRAGGING A LINE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE MID STATE. 00Z MON KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND INDICES
SHOWING RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND LOW SHEAR VALUES AS OF THIS TIME...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PCPN WATER VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENTS IN INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT CONTINUING. 01Z CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK CURTAILING THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTM AREA ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
AND NOW GENERALLY LIMITING THIS POSSIBILITY TO LOCATIONS W OF THE PLATEAU.
SPC STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING AS THIS CURRENT LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER MOVES EWD TONIGHT PER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS ALL SAID...DO EXPECT A QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE
THRU THE MID STATE FROM AROUND 11 PM ONWARD W THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS
E...BUT WILL IT STILL CONTAIN STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH IT? ALL INDICATIONS
AT THIS TIME IS THAT IT IS BORDERLINE IF IT DOES OR NOT...AS SFC FRONT ITSELF
SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER BY 06Z AND THEN PUSH EWD INTO THE MID STATE
JUST W OF PLATEAU BY 12Z...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS THE MID STATE. THUS UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT
THE ABOVE REASONING/TIMINGS MENTIONED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU AT LEAST 20/15Z DUE TO CEILING AND VSBY
FLUCTUATIONS AND SHWR/TSTM IMPACTS. EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS NEAR CKV THRU 20/05Z PER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DYNAMICS. EXPECTING BRUNT OF SHWRS/TSTMS BETWEEN 20/05Z W - 20/11Z E
AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THRU MID STATE. MVFR CEILINGS TO IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AT TAF SITES. EXPECT LINGERING SHWRS BEHIND MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS...WITH MVFR FOG INDUCED
VSBYS DEVELOPING ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 20/15Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 20/18Z AND AFTERWARDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -3.3 AND A CAPE OF 962 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.44 INCHES
AND A K-INDEX OF 34. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES
THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DOES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EITHER CYCLONIC OR ZONAL, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY,
AND SO TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      61  67  44  69 /  70  30  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    58  66  42  68 /  70  30  05  10
CROSSVILLE     59  63  43  64 /  70  60  20  10
COLUMBIA       60  68  44  70 /  70  30  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   58  68  44  70 /  70  30  10  10
WAVERLY        58  68  43  69 /  70  30  05  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 192345 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU AT LEAST 20/15Z DUE TO CEILING AND VSBY
FLUCTUATIONS AND SHWR/TSTM IMPACTS. EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS NEAR CKV THRU 20/05Z PER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DYNAMICS. EXPECTING BRUNT OF SHWRS/TSTMS BETWEEN 20/05Z W - 20/11Z E
AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THRU MID STATE. MVFR CEILINGS TO IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AT TAF SITES. EXPECT LINGERING SHWRS BEHIND MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS...WITH MVFR FOG INDUCED
VSBYS DEVELOPING ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 20/15Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 20/18Z AND AFTERWARDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -3.3 AND A CAPE OF 962 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.44 INCHES
AND A K-INDEX OF 34. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES
THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DOES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EITHER CYCLONIC OR ZONAL, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY,
AND SO TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191900
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
200 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -3.3 AND A CAPE OF 962 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.44 INCHES
AND A K-INDEX OF 34. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES
THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DOES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EITHER CYCLONIC OR ZONAL, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY,
AND SO TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  67  43  72 /  50  40  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    57  66  41  71 /  50  40  05  10
CROSSVILLE     58  62  42  63 /  50  60  20  10
COLUMBIA       59  68  43  73 /  60  30  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   57  67  43  72 /  60  20  10  10
WAVERLY        57  68  42  72 /  60  30  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191900
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
200 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -3.3 AND A CAPE OF 962 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.44 INCHES
AND A K-INDEX OF 34. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES
THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DOES REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EITHER CYCLONIC OR ZONAL, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY,
AND SO TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  67  43  72 /  50  40  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    57  66  41  71 /  50  40  05  10
CROSSVILLE     58  62  42  63 /  50  60  20  10
COLUMBIA       59  68  43  73 /  60  30  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   57  67  43  72 /  60  20  10  10
WAVERLY        57  68  42  72 /  60  30  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 191831
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING BNA AND CKV FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR LEVELS AS
PASSING STORMS IMPACT THOSE TAF SITES. CSV MAY STILL SEE SOME
PASSING SHOWERS...HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY MUCH BETTER IN
THE WEST...AND ACCORDING TO HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS IT WILL
LIKELY BE THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. A SHORT
BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z...THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH MIDDLE TN FROM 05Z AT CKV TO 12Z AT CSV. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191831
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING BNA AND CKV FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR LEVELS AS
PASSING STORMS IMPACT THOSE TAF SITES. CSV MAY STILL SEE SOME
PASSING SHOWERS...HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY MUCH BETTER IN
THE WEST...AND ACCORDING TO HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS IT WILL
LIKELY BE THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. A SHORT
BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z...THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH MIDDLE TN FROM 05Z AT CKV TO 12Z AT CSV. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191654
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF NASHVILLE AND WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA. THE SUN IS ALREADY PEAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES NORTHWARD MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID 70S...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. AM EXPECTING
TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-40. INSTABILITY DECREASES AFTER SUNDOWN AND WE MAY HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE FRONT TO COME THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS. TWEAKED POPS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191654
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF NASHVILLE AND WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA. THE SUN IS ALREADY PEAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES NORTHWARD MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID 70S...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. AM EXPECTING
TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-40. INSTABILITY DECREASES AFTER SUNDOWN AND WE MAY HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE FRONT TO COME THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS. TWEAKED POPS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMPS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 191159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 191159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 190827
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  60  68  45 /  80  60  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    73  59  64  43 /  80  60  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  59  67  43 /  80  50  50  30
COLUMBIA       75  59  67  43 /  70  60  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   74  58  66  44 /  60  60  30  10
WAVERLY        75  59  66  44 /  70  60  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






000
FXUS64 KOHX 190827
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  60  68  45 /  80  60  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    73  59  64  43 /  80  60  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  59  67  43 /  80  50  50  30
COLUMBIA       75  59  67  43 /  70  60  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   74  58  66  44 /  60  60  30  10
WAVERLY        75  59  66  44 /  70  60  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 190435
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND 08Z...WITH
TEMPO IFR AND SOME LIFR 10Z-15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
LIFT NORTH OF MID TN BY 18Z. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INCREASE SHWR/TSTM CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS ALSO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 190306 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1006 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INCREASE SHWR/TSTM CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS ALSO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 190306 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1006 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INCREASE SHWR/TSTM CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS ALSO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 182333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182230 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182230 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 182230 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182051
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  76  60  68 / 100  70  60  40
CLARKSVILLE    62  74  58  66 / 100  70  60  40
CROSSVILLE     61  71  59  67 / 100  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       62  75  60  67 / 100  60  60  40
LAWRENCEBURG   63  75  59  68 / 100  50  60  40
WAVERLY        62  75  59  69 / 100  60  60  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KOHX 182051
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  76  60  68 / 100  70  60  40
CLARKSVILLE    62  74  58  66 / 100  70  60  40
CROSSVILLE     61  71  59  67 / 100  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       62  75  60  67 / 100  60  60  40
LAWRENCEBURG   63  75  59  68 / 100  50  60  40
WAVERLY        62  75  59  69 / 100  60  60  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KOHX 181705
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1205 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE PREVALENT
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOOK FOR
WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AFTER 00Z, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING,
AND THEN BECOMING HEAVIER WITH WORSENING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND
LASTING INTO TOMORROW. WE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
MORNING, BUT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME AFTER
18Z WHEN WE HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 19/03Z WHEN
-SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99







000
FXUS64 KOHX 181705
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1205 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE PREVALENT
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOOK FOR
WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AFTER 00Z, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING,
AND THEN BECOMING HEAVIER WITH WORSENING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND
LASTING INTO TOMORROW. WE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE
MORNING, BUT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME AFTER
18Z WHEN WE HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 19/03Z WHEN
-SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99






000
FXUS64 KOHX 181228
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
728 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 19/03Z WHEN
-SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 181228
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
728 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 19/03Z WHEN
-SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 180835
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      79  63  76  61 /  30 100  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    78  63  74  59 /  20 100  60  60
CROSSVILLE     75  61  71  60 /  30 100  80  60
COLUMBIA       78  63  75  60 /  40 100  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   76  63  74  59 /  40 100  60  60
WAVERLY        79  64  76  60 /  30 100  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL







000
FXUS64 KOHX 180835
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      79  63  76  61 /  30 100  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    78  63  74  59 /  20 100  60  60
CROSSVILLE     75  61  71  60 /  30 100  80  60
COLUMBIA       78  63  75  60 /  40 100  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   76  63  74  59 /  40 100  60  60
WAVERLY        79  64  76  60 /  30 100  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL






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