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000
FXUS64 KOHX 300454 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF
CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA 30/09Z-30/13Z. BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
30/15Z-31/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  30  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  40   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 300454 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF
CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA 30/09Z-30/13Z. BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
30/15Z-31/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  30  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  40   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 300348
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING WARMING TOPS OVER KY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ACTIVITY OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. JUST
UPSTREAM...WEAK NW FLOW APPEARS TO BE IMPULSE FREE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL ADHERE TO THE HRRR DATA
AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WILL ALSO REDUCE POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR EAST AND SOUTH.

CURRENT DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH.
NUMERICAL DATA STILL NO INDICATING VSBYS FALLING TO 1SM OR LOWER.
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND LIKELY SLOW DOWN FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. WILL GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE SKY GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM. ALSO...A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TWEAK OF TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       74  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        72  89  67  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 300348
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING WARMING TOPS OVER KY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ACTIVITY OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. JUST
UPSTREAM...WEAK NW FLOW APPEARS TO BE IMPULSE FREE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL ADHERE TO THE HRRR DATA
AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WILL ALSO REDUCE POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR EAST AND SOUTH.

CURRENT DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH.
NUMERICAL DATA STILL NO INDICATING VSBYS FALLING TO 1SM OR LOWER.
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND LIKELY SLOW DOWN FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. WILL GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE SKY GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM. ALSO...A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TWEAK OF TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       74  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        72  89  67  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 300031
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  30  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  40   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 300024 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 300024 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 292029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>007-023>027-
056>061-093>095.

&&

$$

HURLEY




000
FXUS64 KOHX 292029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>007-023>027-
056>061-093>095.

&&

$$

HURLEY





000
FXUS64 KOHX 292029
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  20   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>007-023>027-
056>061-093>095.

&&

$$

HURLEY




000
FXUS64 KOHX 291747
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WHEN MVFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BR AND HZ, AND IF A TSTM PASSES OVER
A TERMINAL AND BRIEFLY CREATES IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
SINCE SURFACE FLOW BRIDGES ACROSS THE FRONT AND REMAINS NORTHERLY
OVER THE MID STATE, CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  67  89 /  20  10  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    72  87  66  88 /  20  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10
COLUMBIA       74  90  67  90 /  20  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  89  68  89 /  20  10   0   0
WAVERLY        73  88  68  89 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>007-023>027-
056>061-093>095.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 291747
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WHEN MVFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BR AND HZ, AND IF A TSTM PASSES OVER
A TERMINAL AND BRIEFLY CREATES IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
SINCE SURFACE FLOW BRIDGES ACROSS THE FRONT AND REMAINS NORTHERLY
OVER THE MID STATE, CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  67  89 /  20  10  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    72  87  66  88 /  20  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10
COLUMBIA       74  90  67  90 /  20  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  89  68  89 /  20  10   0   0
WAVERLY        73  88  68  89 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>007-023>027-
056>061-093>095.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 291747
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WHEN MVFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BR AND HZ, AND IF A TSTM PASSES OVER
A TERMINAL AND BRIEFLY CREATES IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
SINCE SURFACE FLOW BRIDGES ACROSS THE FRONT AND REMAINS NORTHERLY
OVER THE MID STATE, CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  67  89 /  20  10  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    72  87  66  88 /  20  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10
COLUMBIA       74  90  67  90 /  20  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   73  89  68  89 /  20  10   0   0
WAVERLY        73  88  68  89 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>007-023>027-
056>061-093>095.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAS IMPACTED
ALL TERMINALS. FOR NOW...FOG IS MVFR AT KBNA AND KCSV...BUT MAY
DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE BEFORE 13Z AT KCSV. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP THIS MORNING TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO PINPOINTING EXACT
TERMINAL IMPACT IS DIFFICULT BUT CB DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA
FILLED WITH DOWNED TREE REPORTS AND POWER OUTAGES...THINGS HAVE
QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH THE
CLOUDS...WE SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH LESS THAN 2-3 MILES VISIBILITY
PRIOR TO 8 AM.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WE
COULD VERY WELL BEGIN TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE
SAW YESTERDAY.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT
BEING FULL OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH PW VALUES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUILDING IN
EVEN STRONGER TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
BEST BUT THE STAGE MAY VERY WELL BE IN FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MIDDLE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHERE HEAT INDICIES WILL CLIMB TO 106-108 FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS TODAY.  WE WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR
THESE FOLKS AND COVER THE AREA BETWEEN I-65 AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WITH AN SPS TO DEAL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105.

WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-STATE. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO CARRY WITH
IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS. AS WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BUT
BY NOON SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH OF THE SAME AND WHILE WE WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      94  75  90  67 /  30  40  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    93  72  87  66 /  30  40  10   0
CROSSVILLE     89  72  85  65 /  30  40  40  10
COLUMBIA       95  74  90  67 /  40  40  40   0
LAWRENCEBURG   95  73  89  68 /  40  40  40   0
WAVERLY        94  73  88  68 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TNZ005>007-023>027-056>061-093>095.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAS IMPACTED
ALL TERMINALS. FOR NOW...FOG IS MVFR AT KBNA AND KCSV...BUT MAY
DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE BEFORE 13Z AT KCSV. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP THIS MORNING TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO PINPOINTING EXACT
TERMINAL IMPACT IS DIFFICULT BUT CB DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA
FILLED WITH DOWNED TREE REPORTS AND POWER OUTAGES...THINGS HAVE
QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH THE
CLOUDS...WE SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH LESS THAN 2-3 MILES VISIBILITY
PRIOR TO 8 AM.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WE
COULD VERY WELL BEGIN TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE
SAW YESTERDAY.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT
BEING FULL OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH PW VALUES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUILDING IN
EVEN STRONGER TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
BEST BUT THE STAGE MAY VERY WELL BE IN FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MIDDLE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHERE HEAT INDICIES WILL CLIMB TO 106-108 FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS TODAY.  WE WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR
THESE FOLKS AND COVER THE AREA BETWEEN I-65 AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WITH AN SPS TO DEAL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105.

WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-STATE. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO CARRY WITH
IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS. AS WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BUT
BY NOON SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH OF THE SAME AND WHILE WE WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      94  75  90  67 /  30  40  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    93  72  87  66 /  30  40  10   0
CROSSVILLE     89  72  85  65 /  30  40  40  10
COLUMBIA       95  74  90  67 /  40  40  40   0
LAWRENCEBURG   95  73  89  68 /  40  40  40   0
WAVERLY        94  73  88  68 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TNZ005>007-023>027-056>061-093>095.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KOHX 290847
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
347 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA
FILLED WITH DOWNED TREE REPORTS AND POWER OUTAGES...THINGS HAVE
QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH THE
CLOUDS...WE SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH LESS THAN 2-3 MILES VISIBILITY
PRIOR TO 8 AM.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WE
COULD VERY WELL BEGIN TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE
SAW YESTERDAY.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT
BEING FULL OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH PW VALUES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUILDING IN
EVEN STRONGER TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
BEST BUT THE STAGE MAY VERY WELL BE IN FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MIDDLE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHERE HEAT INDICIES WILL CLIMB TO 106-108 FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS TODAY.  WE WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR
THESE FOLKS AND COVER THE AREA BETWEEN I-65 AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WITH AN SPS TO DEAL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105.

WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-STATE. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO CARRY WITH
IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS. AS WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BUT
BY NOON SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH OF THE SAME AND WHILE WE WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LOW AND RANGE BETWEEN 1F AND
3F ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BROKEN DECK...MOSTLY MID LEVEL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY RED VSBYS
DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES TOWARD 12Z.

CAPE/CAP RATIO TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN ON WED AFT.
CATALYTIC IMPULSES MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY...HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER HIGH IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. STILL THOUGH...ISOL TO SCT ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFT 18Z. WILL INCLUDE PROB 30S FOR CKV AND
BNA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      94  75  90  67  89 /  30  40  30  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    93  72  87  66  88 /  30  40  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     89  72  85  65  84 /  30  40  40  10  10
COLUMBIA       95  74  90  67  90 /  40  40  40   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   95  73  90  66  89 /  30  40  40   0   0
WAVERLY        94  73  88  68  89 /  30  40  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS VALID FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 290847
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
347 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA
FILLED WITH DOWNED TREE REPORTS AND POWER OUTAGES...THINGS HAVE
QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH THE
CLOUDS...WE SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH LESS THAN 2-3 MILES VISIBILITY
PRIOR TO 8 AM.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WE
COULD VERY WELL BEGIN TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE
SAW YESTERDAY.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT
BEING FULL OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH PW VALUES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUILDING IN
EVEN STRONGER TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
BEST BUT THE STAGE MAY VERY WELL BE IN FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MIDDLE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHERE HEAT INDICIES WILL CLIMB TO 106-108 FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS TODAY.  WE WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR
THESE FOLKS AND COVER THE AREA BETWEEN I-65 AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WITH AN SPS TO DEAL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105.

WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-STATE. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO CARRY WITH
IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS. AS WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BUT
BY NOON SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH OF THE SAME AND WHILE WE WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LOW AND RANGE BETWEEN 1F AND
3F ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BROKEN DECK...MOSTLY MID LEVEL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY RED VSBYS
DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES TOWARD 12Z.

CAPE/CAP RATIO TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN ON WED AFT.
CATALYTIC IMPULSES MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY...HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER HIGH IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. STILL THOUGH...ISOL TO SCT ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFT 18Z. WILL INCLUDE PROB 30S FOR CKV AND
BNA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      94  75  90  67  89 /  30  40  30  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    93  72  87  66  88 /  30  40  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     89  72  85  65  84 /  30  40  40  10  10
COLUMBIA       95  74  90  67  90 /  40  40  40   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   95  73  90  66  89 /  30  40  40   0   0
WAVERLY        94  73  88  68  89 /  30  40  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS VALID FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290444
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
CURRENT DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LOW AND RANGE BETWEEN 1F AND
3F ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BROKEN DECK...MOSTLY MID LEVEL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY RED VSBYS
DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES TOWARD 12Z.

CAPE/CAP RATIO TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN ON WED AFT.
CATALYTIC IMPULSES MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY...HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER HIGH IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. STILL THOUGH...ISOL TO SCT ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFT 18Z. WILL INCLUDE PROB 30S FOR CKV AND
BNA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
BEST INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO REMAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS WEAKENING...
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHWRS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...REACHING
AS FAR E AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 02Z...AND THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL INITIALIZING THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN BETTER...WILL GO AHEAD
WITH INCREASING SHWR/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ONE APPROACHES
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE
EARLY MORNING HRS THAT AT LEAST SCT SHWRS...WITH SOME ISO
TSTMS...AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERIPHERY...WILL BE POSSIBLE...
AND THUS WILL MENTION ALSO. WHILE MAKING THESE CHANGES...TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 750 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT AND ALL
REFERENCES TO HEAT ADVISORY THAT EXPIRED AT 7 PM THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT TO DO
THE SAME. PER REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING IN
FROM THE NW INTO LOCATIONS N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS...BUT WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES GRADUALLY WEAKENING...DUE EXPECT AN OVERALL TREND OF
WEAKENING SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE MID EVENING HRS ALONG WITH A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS REASONING SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE THRU THE
EVENING HRS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN SHORT RANGE
MODELS FOR A PREFERENCE FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY EXPECTING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS
AT BEST...AND WILL THUS ADDRESS ALL AREAS ACROSS THE MID STATE
EXPERIENCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPS TRENDS SEEM IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW VALUES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THUS NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  60  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  60  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  60  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290444
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
CURRENT DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LOW AND RANGE BETWEEN 1F AND
3F ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BROKEN DECK...MOSTLY MID LEVEL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY RED VSBYS
DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES TOWARD 12Z.

CAPE/CAP RATIO TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN ON WED AFT.
CATALYTIC IMPULSES MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY...HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER HIGH IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. STILL THOUGH...ISOL TO SCT ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFT 18Z. WILL INCLUDE PROB 30S FOR CKV AND
BNA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
BEST INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO REMAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS WEAKENING...
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHWRS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...REACHING
AS FAR E AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 02Z...AND THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL INITIALIZING THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN BETTER...WILL GO AHEAD
WITH INCREASING SHWR/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ONE APPROACHES
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE
EARLY MORNING HRS THAT AT LEAST SCT SHWRS...WITH SOME ISO
TSTMS...AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERIPHERY...WILL BE POSSIBLE...
AND THUS WILL MENTION ALSO. WHILE MAKING THESE CHANGES...TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 750 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT AND ALL
REFERENCES TO HEAT ADVISORY THAT EXPIRED AT 7 PM THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT TO DO
THE SAME. PER REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING IN
FROM THE NW INTO LOCATIONS N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS...BUT WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES GRADUALLY WEAKENING...DUE EXPECT AN OVERALL TREND OF
WEAKENING SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE MID EVENING HRS ALONG WITH A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS REASONING SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE THRU THE
EVENING HRS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN SHORT RANGE
MODELS FOR A PREFERENCE FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY EXPECTING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS
AT BEST...AND WILL THUS ADDRESS ALL AREAS ACROSS THE MID STATE
EXPERIENCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPS TRENDS SEEM IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW VALUES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THUS NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  60  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  60  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  60  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 290206 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
906 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
BEST INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO REMAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS WEAKENING...
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHWRS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...REACHING
AS FAR E AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 02Z...AND THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL INITIALIZING THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN BETTER...WILL GO AHEAD
WITH INCREASING SHWR/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ONE APPROACHES
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE
EARLY MORNING HRS THAT AT LEAST SCT SHWRS...WITH SOME ISO
TSTMS...AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERIPHERY...WILL BE POSSIBLE...
AND THUS WILL MENTION ALSO. WHILE MAKING THESE CHANGES...TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 750 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT AND ALL
REFERENCES TO HEAT ADVISORY THAT EXPIRED AT 7 PM THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT TO DO
THE SAME. PER REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING IN
FROM THE NW INTO LOCATIONS N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS...BUT WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES GRADUALLY WEAKENING...DUE EXPECT AN OVERALL TREND OF
WEAKENING SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE MID EVENING HRS ALONG WITH A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS REASONING SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE THRU THE
EVENING HRS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN SHORT RANGE
MODELS FOR A PREFERENCE FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY EXPECTING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS
AT BEST...AND WILL THUS ADDRESS ALL AREAS ACROSS THE MID STATE
EXPERIENCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPS TRENDS SEEM IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW VALUES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THUS NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  60  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  60  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  60  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  60  30  40  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 290206 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
906 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
BEST INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO REMAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS WEAKENING...
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHWRS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...REACHING
AS FAR E AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 02Z...AND THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL INITIALIZING THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN BETTER...WILL GO AHEAD
WITH INCREASING SHWR/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ONE APPROACHES
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE
EARLY MORNING HRS THAT AT LEAST SCT SHWRS...WITH SOME ISO
TSTMS...AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERIPHERY...WILL BE POSSIBLE...
AND THUS WILL MENTION ALSO. WHILE MAKING THESE CHANGES...TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 750 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT AND ALL
REFERENCES TO HEAT ADVISORY THAT EXPIRED AT 7 PM THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT TO DO
THE SAME. PER REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING IN
FROM THE NW INTO LOCATIONS N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS...BUT WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES GRADUALLY WEAKENING...DUE EXPECT AN OVERALL TREND OF
WEAKENING SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE MID EVENING HRS ALONG WITH A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS REASONING SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE THRU THE
EVENING HRS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN SHORT RANGE
MODELS FOR A PREFERENCE FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY EXPECTING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS
AT BEST...AND WILL THUS ADDRESS ALL AREAS ACROSS THE MID STATE
EXPERIENCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPS TRENDS SEEM IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW VALUES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THUS NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  60  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  60  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  60  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  60  30  40  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290206 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
906 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
BEST INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO REMAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS WEAKENING...
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHWRS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...REACHING
AS FAR E AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 02Z...AND THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL INITIALIZING THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN BETTER...WILL GO AHEAD
WITH INCREASING SHWR/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ONE APPROACHES
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE
EARLY MORNING HRS THAT AT LEAST SCT SHWRS...WITH SOME ISO
TSTMS...AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERIPHERY...WILL BE POSSIBLE...
AND THUS WILL MENTION ALSO. WHILE MAKING THESE CHANGES...TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 750 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT AND ALL
REFERENCES TO HEAT ADVISORY THAT EXPIRED AT 7 PM THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT TO DO
THE SAME. PER REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING IN
FROM THE NW INTO LOCATIONS N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS...BUT WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES GRADUALLY WEAKENING...DUE EXPECT AN OVERALL TREND OF
WEAKENING SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE MID EVENING HRS ALONG WITH A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS REASONING SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE THRU THE
EVENING HRS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN SHORT RANGE
MODELS FOR A PREFERENCE FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY EXPECTING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS
AT BEST...AND WILL THUS ADDRESS ALL AREAS ACROSS THE MID STATE
EXPERIENCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPS TRENDS SEEM IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW VALUES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THUS NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  60  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  60  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  60  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  60  30  40  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 290206 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
906 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
BEST INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO REMAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS WEAKENING...
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHWRS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...REACHING
AS FAR E AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 02Z...AND THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL INITIALIZING THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN BETTER...WILL GO AHEAD
WITH INCREASING SHWR/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS ONE APPROACHES
THE TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE
EARLY MORNING HRS THAT AT LEAST SCT SHWRS...WITH SOME ISO
TSTMS...AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERIPHERY...WILL BE POSSIBLE...
AND THUS WILL MENTION ALSO. WHILE MAKING THESE CHANGES...TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 750 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT AND ALL
REFERENCES TO HEAT ADVISORY THAT EXPIRED AT 7 PM THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT TO DO
THE SAME. PER REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING IN
FROM THE NW INTO LOCATIONS N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS...BUT WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES GRADUALLY WEAKENING...DUE EXPECT AN OVERALL TREND OF
WEAKENING SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE MID EVENING HRS ALONG WITH A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS REASONING SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE THRU THE
EVENING HRS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN SHORT RANGE
MODELS FOR A PREFERENCE FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY EXPECTING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS
AT BEST...AND WILL THUS ADDRESS ALL AREAS ACROSS THE MID STATE
EXPERIENCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPS TRENDS SEEM IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW VALUES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THUS NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  60  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  60  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  60  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  60  30  40  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290050 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
750 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT AND ALL
REFERENCES TO HEAT ADVISORY THAT EXPIRED AT 7 PM THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT TO DO
THE SAME. PER REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING IN
FROM THE NW INTO LOCATIONS N OF I-40 AND W OF 1-65...AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THIS REGION THRU THE MID EVENING HRS...BUT WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES GRADUALLY WEAKENING...DUE EXPECT AN OVERALL TREND OF
WEAKENING SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE MID EVENING HRS ALONG WITH A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS REASONING SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE THRU THE
EVENING HRS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN SHORT RANGE
MODELS FOR A PREFERENCE FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY EXPECTING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS
AT BEST...AND WILL THUS ADDRESS ALL AREAS ACROSS THE MID STATE
EXPERIENCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPS TRENDS SEEM IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW VALUES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THUS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  20  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  40  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  20  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  20  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  40  30  40  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 282315
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  30  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  40  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  30  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 282315
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  30  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  40  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  30  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 282315
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  30  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  40  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  30  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 282315
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. NVA
SHOULD MOVE IN AFT 03Z AND END THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HRRR
CONCURS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS BY 5Z. WILL OPT TO BE A LITTLE
MORE BULLISH WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AND LOWER THE TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS RAIN COOLED AND DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE RATHER LOW.

UPPER HIGH MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CAPE
TO CAP RATIOS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFT. WILL
INCLUDE VCNTY/CONVECTION IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  30  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  40  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  30  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 282209 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  30  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  40  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  30  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.
&&
$$
31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 282209 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  30  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  40  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  30  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.
&&
$$
31




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281936
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LASTEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  30  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  40  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  20  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281936
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LASTEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  40  30  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  30  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  40  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  20  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WHEN MVFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BR AND HZ, AND IF A TSTM PASSES OVER
A TERMINAL AND BRIEFLY CREATES IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  94  75  90 /  30  30  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    75  94  72  87 /  30  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     71  87  72  84 /  30  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       75  93  74  91 /  30  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   75  90  73  90 /  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        75  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281600
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR FA TO HAVE MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
106, WITH SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES NORTH AND EAST OF I-24.
THEREFORE, WILL LIKELY ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR PART OF OUR FA, INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO
AREA.

OUR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING,
AND MAY BE ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  76  95  75 /  30  20  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    94  75  93  73 /  30  20  30  40
CROSSVILLE     88  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBIA       96  74  94  74 /  20  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   95  74  94  74 /  20  30  30  40
WAVERLY        93  75  94  73 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281600
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR FA TO HAVE MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
106, WITH SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES NORTH AND EAST OF I-24.
THEREFORE, WILL LIKELY ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR PART OF OUR FA, INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO
AREA.

OUR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING,
AND MAY BE ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  76  95  75 /  30  20  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    94  75  93  73 /  30  20  30  40
CROSSVILLE     88  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBIA       96  74  94  74 /  20  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   95  74  94  74 /  20  30  30  40
WAVERLY        93  75  94  73 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281600
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR FA TO HAVE MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
106, WITH SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES NORTH AND EAST OF I-24.
THEREFORE, WILL LIKELY ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR PART OF OUR FA, INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO
AREA.

OUR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING,
AND MAY BE ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  76  95  75 /  30  20  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    94  75  93  73 /  30  20  30  40
CROSSVILLE     88  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBIA       96  74  94  74 /  20  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   95  74  94  74 /  20  30  30  40
WAVERLY        93  75  94  73 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 281600
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR FA TO HAVE MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
106, WITH SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES NORTH AND EAST OF I-24.
THEREFORE, WILL LIKELY ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR PART OF OUR FA, INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO
AREA.

OUR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING,
AND MAY BE ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  76  95  75 /  30  20  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    94  75  93  73 /  30  20  30  40
CROSSVILLE     88  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBIA       96  74  94  74 /  20  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   95  74  94  74 /  20  30  30  40
WAVERLY        93  75  94  73 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281047
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
12Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR BR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL END BY 14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT...MAINLY WEST WINDS. ISOLD
TSRA WILL DEVELOP TODAY...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME BR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHY OF THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IS UPON
US IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY BUT
AGAIN...NOTHING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FOG ADVISORY.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH LOW 70S DEW POINTS.  THIS
WILL BRING US CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH A 100-105 DEGREE RANGE OF HEAT INDEX VALUES...WE SHOULD STAY
JUST BELOW.  WILL MAINTAIN THE SPS TO COVER THIS HEAT.  NEEDS TO BE
SAID THOUGH...GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING.  RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AND WE WILL BE CLIMB INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO KEEP STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION EACH
AFTERNOON.

BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LIKE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.  HAVE NEVER REALLY BEEN IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE
PARAMETERS DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS SYSTEM`S ENERGY BEING
DISPLACED WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS COULD FEED A COUPLE STORMS AND PROVIDE THEM WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR SMALL HAIL.  HAVE BUMPED POPS A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LATE NIGHT
PRECIP.

ONCE THE FRONT GETS THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING AND RAINS
COME TO AN END IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND WILL
BE IN STORE FOR THE MID-STATE.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER ALLOWING FOR
RH VALUES TO CREATE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE FEELS-LIKE ENVIRONMENT
EACH AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  76  95  75 /  30  20  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    94  75  93  73 /  30  20  30  40
CROSSVILLE     88  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBIA       96  74  94  74 /  20  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   95  74  94  74 /  20  30  30  40
WAVERLY        93  75  94  73 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281047
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
12Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR BR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL END BY 14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT...MAINLY WEST WINDS. ISOLD
TSRA WILL DEVELOP TODAY...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME BR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHY OF THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IS UPON
US IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY BUT
AGAIN...NOTHING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FOG ADVISORY.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH LOW 70S DEW POINTS.  THIS
WILL BRING US CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH A 100-105 DEGREE RANGE OF HEAT INDEX VALUES...WE SHOULD STAY
JUST BELOW.  WILL MAINTAIN THE SPS TO COVER THIS HEAT.  NEEDS TO BE
SAID THOUGH...GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING.  RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AND WE WILL BE CLIMB INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO KEEP STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION EACH
AFTERNOON.

BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LIKE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.  HAVE NEVER REALLY BEEN IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE
PARAMETERS DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS SYSTEM`S ENERGY BEING
DISPLACED WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS COULD FEED A COUPLE STORMS AND PROVIDE THEM WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR SMALL HAIL.  HAVE BUMPED POPS A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LATE NIGHT
PRECIP.

ONCE THE FRONT GETS THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING AND RAINS
COME TO AN END IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND WILL
BE IN STORE FOR THE MID-STATE.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER ALLOWING FOR
RH VALUES TO CREATE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE FEELS-LIKE ENVIRONMENT
EACH AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  76  95  75 /  30  20  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    94  75  93  73 /  30  20  30  40
CROSSVILLE     88  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBIA       96  74  94  74 /  20  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   95  74  94  74 /  20  30  30  40
WAVERLY        93  75  94  73 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280759
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHY OF THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IS UPON
US IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY BUT
AGAIN...NOTHING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FOG ADVISORY.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH LOW 70S DEW POINTS.  THIS
WILL BRING US CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH A 100-105 DEGREE RANGE OF HEAT INDEX VALUES...WE SHOULD STAY
JUST BELOW.  WILL MAINTAIN THE SPS TO COVER THIS HEAT.  NEEDS TO BE
SAID THOUGH...GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING.  RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AND WE WILL BE CLIMB INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO KEEP STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION EACH
AFTERNOON.

BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LIKE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.  HAVE NEVER REALLY BEEN IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE
PARAMETERS DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS SYSTEM`S ENERGY BEING
DISPLACED WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS COULD FEED A COUPLE STORMS AND PROVIDE THEM WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR SMALL HAIL.  HAVE BUMPED POPS A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LATE NIGHT
PRECIP.

ONCE THE FRONT GETS THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING AND RAINS
COME TO AN END IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND WILL
BE IN STORE FOR THE MID-STATE.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER ALLOWING FOR
RH VALUES TO CREATE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE FEELS-LIKE ENVIRONMENT
EACH AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERNIGHT UPPER DIVERGENCE IS NOT INDICATED AND THUS...CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY. OTW...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND
EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA
1-3SM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  76  95  75  90 /  30  20  30  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    94  75  93  73  88 /  30  20  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     88  71  88  72  86 /  30  30  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       96  74  94  74  90 /  20  20  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   96  73  94  74  90 /  30  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        93  75  94  73  89 /  20  20  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280759
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHY OF THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IS UPON
US IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY BUT
AGAIN...NOTHING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FOG ADVISORY.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH LOW 70S DEW POINTS.  THIS
WILL BRING US CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH A 100-105 DEGREE RANGE OF HEAT INDEX VALUES...WE SHOULD STAY
JUST BELOW.  WILL MAINTAIN THE SPS TO COVER THIS HEAT.  NEEDS TO BE
SAID THOUGH...GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING.  RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AND WE WILL BE CLIMB INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO KEEP STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION EACH
AFTERNOON.

BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LIKE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.  HAVE NEVER REALLY BEEN IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE
PARAMETERS DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS SYSTEM`S ENERGY BEING
DISPLACED WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS COULD FEED A COUPLE STORMS AND PROVIDE THEM WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR SMALL HAIL.  HAVE BUMPED POPS A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LATE NIGHT
PRECIP.

ONCE THE FRONT GETS THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING AND RAINS
COME TO AN END IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND WILL
BE IN STORE FOR THE MID-STATE.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER ALLOWING FOR
RH VALUES TO CREATE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE FEELS-LIKE ENVIRONMENT
EACH AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERNIGHT UPPER DIVERGENCE IS NOT INDICATED AND THUS...CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY. OTW...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND
EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA
1-3SM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  76  95  75  90 /  30  20  30  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    94  75  93  73  88 /  30  20  30  40  10
CROSSVILLE     88  71  88  72  86 /  30  30  30  40  50
COLUMBIA       96  74  94  74  90 /  20  20  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   96  73  94  74  90 /  30  30  30  40  50
WAVERLY        93  75  94  73  89 /  20  20  30  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280450
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION 06Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT UPPER DIVERGENCE IS NOT INDICATED AND THUS...CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY. OTW...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED
AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING
AOA 1-3SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...

AREA REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY UP IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
NEAR BOUNDARY WITH HELP OF WEAK IMPULSE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
WORK SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS BUT MAY GET INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DIES OFF. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY
AND WILL LEAVE SMALL POP RUNNING ALL NIGHT NORTH. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO PLATEAU. REMAINDER UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1-3SM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  20  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  20  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280450
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION 06Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT UPPER DIVERGENCE IS NOT INDICATED AND THUS...CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY. OTW...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED
AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING
AOA 1-3SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...

AREA REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY UP IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
NEAR BOUNDARY WITH HELP OF WEAK IMPULSE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
WORK SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS BUT MAY GET INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DIES OFF. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY
AND WILL LEAVE SMALL POP RUNNING ALL NIGHT NORTH. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO PLATEAU. REMAINDER UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1-3SM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  20  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  20  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
911 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY UP IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
NEAR BOUNDARY WITH HELP OF WEAK IMPULSE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
WORK SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS BUT MAY GET INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DIES OFF. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY
AND WILL LEAVE SMALL POP RUNNING ALL NIGHT NORTH. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO PLATEAU. REMAINDER UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1-3SM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  20  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  20  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 280211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
911 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY UP IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
NEAR BOUNDARY WITH HELP OF WEAK IMPULSE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
WORK SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS BUT MAY GET INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DIES OFF. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY
AND WILL LEAVE SMALL POP RUNNING ALL NIGHT NORTH. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO PLATEAU. REMAINDER UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1-3SM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  20  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  20  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
911 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY UP IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
NEAR BOUNDARY WITH HELP OF WEAK IMPULSE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
WORK SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS BUT MAY GET INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DIES OFF. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY
AND WILL LEAVE SMALL POP RUNNING ALL NIGHT NORTH. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO PLATEAU. REMAINDER UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1-3SM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  20  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  20  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KOHX 280211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
911 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY UP IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
NEAR BOUNDARY WITH HELP OF WEAK IMPULSE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
WORK SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS BUT MAY GET INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DIES OFF. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY
AND WILL LEAVE SMALL POP RUNNING ALL NIGHT NORTH. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO PLATEAU. REMAINDER UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1-3SM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  20  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  20  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KOHX 272350
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1-3SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  10  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 272350
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1-3SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  10  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 272350
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED AFT AND EVEN TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PLATEAU. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1-3SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  10  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 272009
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  10  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 272009
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONVECTION HAS HAD A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP RECENTLY EAST OF
NASHVILLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE AND COMBINED
HEAT/HUMIDITY LEADING TO TWO MORE DAYS OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100-105. SINCE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105+ NEXT 2 DAYS WILL UPDATE AND REISSUE SPS FOR HEAT
ACCORDINGLY. OF NOTE...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TOO WARM
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD...CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO APPEAR TO BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS FRONT OOZES THROUGH. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO A COOLDOWN OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS LIKELY. MAIN
NOTICEABLE POST-FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO
RELATIVELY MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING ONCE AGAIN BUT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  95  76  94 /  10  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    73  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     70  88  71  87 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   73  95  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        73  94  75  93 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
125 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z FORECAST
HEAT OF THE DAY BRINGING ON ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY DOWN THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE BUT A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS SUNSET. THINK WE WILL SEE SOME FOG TONIGHT
AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK.



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
125 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z FORECAST
HEAT OF THE DAY BRINGING ON ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY DOWN THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE BUT A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS SUNSET. THINK WE WILL SEE SOME FOG TONIGHT
AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK.



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271607
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1107 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR PAH HAS
DISSIPATED. 12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB...AND EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLATEAU WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF
THERE PER LATEST HRRR RUNS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST ZONES AND TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE STARTING OFF AT CKV, AND EXPECT TO GO VFR BY 14Z. CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING EXTREME WRN KY & SRN IL MAY MAKE
IT INTO NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS MORNING, SO AM INCLUDING
VCTS FOR CKV. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, SO TS A POSSIBILITY AT CSV. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AAAH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STINGS US AGAIN.  THE MCS THAT WAS
UPSTREAM OF US THIS TIME YESTERDAY DECIDED IT HAD JUST ENOUGH STEAM
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING BEFORE DYING
OUT. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND AND NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...
GOING TO HEED TO THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND INCREASE POPS FOR MID-STATE COUNTIES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR LATER THIS MORNING. NOT REAL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING THAT IS TRYING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF I-65. SAME STORY REGARDING STRENGTH.

A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER LATE-MORNING CHANCES PUSHING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THAT UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO GOING TO WARM THINGS UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK.  MANY MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL SUGGESTING 95-97 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT I`M STILL NOT BUYING THESE VALUES.  CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T GET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
WEDNESDAY...I`M STILL GOING TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW THESE
MOS VALUES. THAT ISN`T TO SAY IT ISN`T GOING TO BE HOT AND STEAMY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT IS. HEAT INDICIES OF 100-105 ARE GOING TO BE
PREVALENT BECAUSE OF LOW 70S DEW POINTS AND ANY INCREASE TOWARDS
THOSE 95-97 DEGREE READINGS WILL PUSH US INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL COVER ELEVATED HEAT INDICIES WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WON`T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MANY SPOTS WON`T FALL PAST THE MID-70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE ONLY THING THIS FRONT WILL DO
IS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

UNGER

AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PLATEAU
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  94  75 /  20  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    91  72  92  73 /  20  10  20  20
CROSSVILLE     87  70  87  70 /  30  20  30  30
COLUMBIA       94  73  94  73 /  20   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   93  72  94  73 /  10  10  20  20
WAVERLY        92  73  93  74 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271607
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1107 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR PAH HAS
DISSIPATED. 12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB...AND EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLATEAU WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF
THERE PER LATEST HRRR RUNS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST ZONES AND TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE STARTING OFF AT CKV, AND EXPECT TO GO VFR BY 14Z. CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING EXTREME WRN KY & SRN IL MAY MAKE
IT INTO NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS MORNING, SO AM INCLUDING
VCTS FOR CKV. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, SO TS A POSSIBILITY AT CSV. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AAAH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STINGS US AGAIN.  THE MCS THAT WAS
UPSTREAM OF US THIS TIME YESTERDAY DECIDED IT HAD JUST ENOUGH STEAM
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING BEFORE DYING
OUT. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND AND NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...
GOING TO HEED TO THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND INCREASE POPS FOR MID-STATE COUNTIES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR LATER THIS MORNING. NOT REAL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING THAT IS TRYING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF I-65. SAME STORY REGARDING STRENGTH.

A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER LATE-MORNING CHANCES PUSHING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THAT UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO GOING TO WARM THINGS UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK.  MANY MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL SUGGESTING 95-97 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT I`M STILL NOT BUYING THESE VALUES.  CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T GET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
WEDNESDAY...I`M STILL GOING TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW THESE
MOS VALUES. THAT ISN`T TO SAY IT ISN`T GOING TO BE HOT AND STEAMY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT IS. HEAT INDICIES OF 100-105 ARE GOING TO BE
PREVALENT BECAUSE OF LOW 70S DEW POINTS AND ANY INCREASE TOWARDS
THOSE 95-97 DEGREE READINGS WILL PUSH US INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL COVER ELEVATED HEAT INDICIES WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WON`T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MANY SPOTS WON`T FALL PAST THE MID-70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE ONLY THING THIS FRONT WILL DO
IS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

UNGER

AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PLATEAU
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  94  75 /  20  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    91  72  92  73 /  20  10  20  20
CROSSVILLE     87  70  87  70 /  30  20  30  30
COLUMBIA       94  73  94  73 /  20   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   93  72  94  73 /  10  10  20  20
WAVERLY        92  73  93  74 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE STARTING OFF AT CKV, AND EXPECT TO GO VFR BY 14Z. CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING EXTREME WRN KY & SRN IL MAY MAKE
IT INTO NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS MORNING, SO AM INCLUDING
VCTS FOR CKV. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, SO TS A POSSIBILITY AT CSV. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AAAH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STINGS US AGAIN.  THE MCS THAT WAS
UPSTREAM OF US THIS TIME YESTERDAY DECIDED IT HAD JUST ENOUGH STEAM
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING BEFORE DYING
OUT. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND AND NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...
GOING TO HEED TO THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND INCREASE POPS FOR MID-STATE COUNTIES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR LATER THIS MORNING. NOT REAL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING THAT IS TRYING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF I-65. SAME STORY REGARDING STRENGTH.

A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER LATE-MORNING CHANCES PUSHING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THAT UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO GOING TO WARM THINGS UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK.  MANY MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL SUGGESTING 95-97 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT I`M STILL NOT BUYING THESE VALUES.  CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T GET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
WEDNESDAY...I`M STILL GOING TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW THESE
MOS VALUES. THAT ISN`T TO SAY IT ISN`T GOING TO BE HOT AND STEAMY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT IS. HEAT INDICIES OF 100-105 ARE GOING TO BE
PREVALENT BECAUSE OF LOW 70S DEW POINTS AND ANY INCREASE TOWARDS
THOSE 95-97 DEGREE READINGS WILL PUSH US INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL COVER ELEVATED HEAT INDICIES WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WON`T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MANY SPOTS WON`T FALL PAST THE MID-70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE ONLY THING THIS FRONT WILL DO
IS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

UNGER

AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PLATEAU
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  94  75 /  30  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    91  72  92  73 /  40  10  20  20
CROSSVILLE     87  70  87  70 /  40  20  30  30
COLUMBIA       94  73  94  73 /  30   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   93  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  20
WAVERLY        92  73  93  74 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KOHX 271116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE STARTING OFF AT CKV, AND EXPECT TO GO VFR BY 14Z. CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING EXTREME WRN KY & SRN IL MAY MAKE
IT INTO NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS MORNING, SO AM INCLUDING
VCTS FOR CKV. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, SO TS A POSSIBILITY AT CSV. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AAAH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STINGS US AGAIN.  THE MCS THAT WAS
UPSTREAM OF US THIS TIME YESTERDAY DECIDED IT HAD JUST ENOUGH STEAM
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING BEFORE DYING
OUT. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND AND NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...
GOING TO HEED TO THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND INCREASE POPS FOR MID-STATE COUNTIES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR LATER THIS MORNING. NOT REAL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING THAT IS TRYING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF I-65. SAME STORY REGARDING STRENGTH.

A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER LATE-MORNING CHANCES PUSHING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THAT UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO GOING TO WARM THINGS UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK.  MANY MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL SUGGESTING 95-97 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT I`M STILL NOT BUYING THESE VALUES.  CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T GET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
WEDNESDAY...I`M STILL GOING TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW THESE
MOS VALUES. THAT ISN`T TO SAY IT ISN`T GOING TO BE HOT AND STEAMY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT IS. HEAT INDICIES OF 100-105 ARE GOING TO BE
PREVALENT BECAUSE OF LOW 70S DEW POINTS AND ANY INCREASE TOWARDS
THOSE 95-97 DEGREE READINGS WILL PUSH US INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL COVER ELEVATED HEAT INDICIES WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WON`T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MANY SPOTS WON`T FALL PAST THE MID-70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE ONLY THING THIS FRONT WILL DO
IS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

UNGER

AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PLATEAU
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  94  75 /  30  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    91  72  92  73 /  40  10  20  20
CROSSVILLE     87  70  87  70 /  40  20  30  30
COLUMBIA       94  73  94  73 /  30   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   93  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  20
WAVERLY        92  73  93  74 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08





000
FXUS64 KOHX 271116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE STARTING OFF AT CKV, AND EXPECT TO GO VFR BY 14Z. CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING EXTREME WRN KY & SRN IL MAY MAKE
IT INTO NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS MORNING, SO AM INCLUDING
VCTS FOR CKV. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, SO TS A POSSIBILITY AT CSV. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AAAH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STINGS US AGAIN.  THE MCS THAT WAS
UPSTREAM OF US THIS TIME YESTERDAY DECIDED IT HAD JUST ENOUGH STEAM
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING BEFORE DYING
OUT. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND AND NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...
GOING TO HEED TO THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND INCREASE POPS FOR MID-STATE COUNTIES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR LATER THIS MORNING. NOT REAL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING THAT IS TRYING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF I-65. SAME STORY REGARDING STRENGTH.

A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER LATE-MORNING CHANCES PUSHING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THAT UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO GOING TO WARM THINGS UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK.  MANY MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL SUGGESTING 95-97 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT I`M STILL NOT BUYING THESE VALUES.  CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T GET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
WEDNESDAY...I`M STILL GOING TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW THESE
MOS VALUES. THAT ISN`T TO SAY IT ISN`T GOING TO BE HOT AND STEAMY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT IS. HEAT INDICIES OF 100-105 ARE GOING TO BE
PREVALENT BECAUSE OF LOW 70S DEW POINTS AND ANY INCREASE TOWARDS
THOSE 95-97 DEGREE READINGS WILL PUSH US INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL COVER ELEVATED HEAT INDICIES WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WON`T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MANY SPOTS WON`T FALL PAST THE MID-70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE ONLY THING THIS FRONT WILL DO
IS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

UNGER

AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PLATEAU
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  94  75 /  30  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    91  72  92  73 /  40  10  20  20
CROSSVILLE     87  70  87  70 /  40  20  30  30
COLUMBIA       94  73  94  73 /  30   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   93  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  20
WAVERLY        92  73  93  74 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
303 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AAAH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STINGS US AGAIN.  THE MCS THAT WAS
UPSTREAM OF US THIS TIME YESTERDAY DECIDED IT HAD JUST ENOUGH STEAM
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING BEFORE DYING
OUT. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND AND NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...
GOING TO HEED TO THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND INCREASE POPS FOR MID-STATE COUNTIES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR LATER THIS MORNING. NOT REAL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING THAT IS TRYING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF I-65. SAME STORY REGARDING STRENGTH.

A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER LATE-MORNING CHANCES PUSHING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THAT UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO GOING TO WARM THINGS UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK.  MANY MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL SUGGESTING 95-97 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT I`M STILL NOT BUYING THESE VALUES.  CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T GET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
WEDNESDAY...I`M STILL GOING TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW THESE
MOS VALUES. THAT ISN`T TO SAY IT ISN`T GOING TO BE HOT AND STEAMY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT IS. HEAT INDICIES OF 100-105 ARE GOING TO BE
PREVALENT BECAUSE OF LOW 70S DEW POINTS AND ANY INCREASE TOWARDS
THOSE 95-97 DEGREE READINGS WILL PUSH US INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL COVER ELEVATED HEAT INDICIES WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WON`T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MANY SPOTS WON`T FALL PAST THE MID-70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE ONLY THING THIS FRONT WILL DO
IS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PLATEAU
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    91  72  92  73  92 /  40  10  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     87  70  87  70  87 /  40  20  30  30  30
COLUMBIA       94  73  93  73  94 /  30   0  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        92  73  93  74  93 /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOHX 270803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
303 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AAAH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STINGS US AGAIN.  THE MCS THAT WAS
UPSTREAM OF US THIS TIME YESTERDAY DECIDED IT HAD JUST ENOUGH STEAM
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING BEFORE DYING
OUT. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND AND NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...
GOING TO HEED TO THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND INCREASE POPS FOR MID-STATE COUNTIES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR LATER THIS MORNING. NOT REAL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING THAT IS TRYING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF I-65. SAME STORY REGARDING STRENGTH.

A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER LATE-MORNING CHANCES PUSHING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THAT UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO GOING TO WARM THINGS UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK.  MANY MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL SUGGESTING 95-97 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT I`M STILL NOT BUYING THESE VALUES.  CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T GET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
WEDNESDAY...I`M STILL GOING TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW THESE
MOS VALUES. THAT ISN`T TO SAY IT ISN`T GOING TO BE HOT AND STEAMY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT IS. HEAT INDICIES OF 100-105 ARE GOING TO BE
PREVALENT BECAUSE OF LOW 70S DEW POINTS AND ANY INCREASE TOWARDS
THOSE 95-97 DEGREE READINGS WILL PUSH US INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL COVER ELEVATED HEAT INDICIES WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WON`T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MANY SPOTS WON`T FALL PAST THE MID-70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE ONLY THING THIS FRONT WILL DO
IS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PLATEAU
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    91  72  92  73  92 /  40  10  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     87  70  87  70  87 /  40  20  30  30  30
COLUMBIA       94  73  93  73  94 /  30   0  20  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   93  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  20  30
WAVERLY        92  73  93  74  93 /  40  10  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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