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000
FXUS64 KOHX 260005 AAB
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
705 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms have held together much better than
previously thought across Middle Tennessee this early evening so
have raised POPS significantly across much of the forecast area.
Still think the trend is a decreasing one...with the threat for
any strong or severe weather very negligible. Heavy rain is still
a threat...but as mentioned above, the intensity of storms has
waned significantly over the last hour.

Big question still remains if this area of showers and
thunderstorms will hold together and make it to the Cumberland
Plateau over the next 1-3 hours. Current radar trends suggest
yes, although the heavy rain is definitely not expected. Rainfall
should exit/dissipate by 10pm this evening.

Updated current forecast to reflect radar trends and sky cover as
well as lower hourly temperatures where rain has already fallen.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KBNA...Moderate to Heavy TSRA will be impacting the terminal
through 01z with IFR/LIFR visibilities expected. Slow improvement
to MVFR conditions and eventual VFR can be expected after 03z.
Not enough confidence to include any BR or VCTS between 12Z-00Z
Thursday.

KCKV and KCSV...Generally VFR Conditions can be expected over the
next 24 hours. -SHRA will decrease in coverage at KCKV by 01z with
low confidence that any precipitation will even make it to KCSV
and impact the terminal. Possible MVFR visibilities at KCKV...although
not enough confidence to forecast occurrence during this
issuance.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Hurley
AVIATION........Hurley





000
FXUS64 KOHX 251930
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
230 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

General trend into the weekend is for ML/UL long-wave like pattern
to amplify as west coast trough develops into northern plains closed
low by early Friday. Developing upper ridge somewhat dirty as
moderate moisture remains as bits of weak energy pass. At LLs...high
pressure holds but does show signs of weaken latter part of the
week. Overall...isolated to scattered shwrs/storms are expected to
continue into the weekend. Hard to put finger on exactly which
day will have greater coverage without really any good organized
features. But while pattern is not exactly summer like...is it
similar as most activity is expected in the afternoons/eves as
thermodynamic parameters pushing CAPE 2000-3000 range 18-03z
time-frames each day.

Early Sunday...upper ridge reacts to weak system heading up FL east
coast as well as filling plains upper low. While upper ridging does
hold, it dampens significantly and remains as such into the early
part of next week. Despite weaker ridging, moisture source is
more limited. Thus...isolated activity is expected in large part
Monday-Wednesday...although Tuesday shwrs/strms may be a bit more
numerous.

Temps heading into the next week looking to remain well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Band of showers is moving across West Tennessee late
this morning and appears to be picking up some steam. Latest HRRR
also shows more widespread shower development during the
afternoon, so will include TEMPO groups for light showers and VFR
cigs at BNA & CKV. Expect generally benign weather after 00Z. At
this time, radiation fog appears unlikely owing mainly to
persistent VFR cigs.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  88  68  88  66 /  20  20  10  20  20
Clarksville    66  85  66  84  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
Crossville     65  84  65  84  63 /  20  20  10  20  20
Columbia       66  87  67  86  65 /  20  20  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   65  88  67  86  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
Waverly        67  86  66  84  65 /  30  30  20  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........08





000
FXUS64 KOHX 250410
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1110 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms across West Tennessee are really trying
their hardest this evening to make it across that Tennessee River
into Middle Tennessee. The HRRR and other short range models do
have some remnants of a few decaying thunderstorms and showers
making it into the far western portions of Middle Tennessee
before dying off after midnight. Not expecting too many impacts
other than some additional clouds and some light rain for the most
part. Adjusted POPS and temperatures to account for the next 6-12
hours, but really think this area of rain will rapidly die off
thanks to the pretty impressive dry air as exhibited on the KOHX
sounding this evening.

No other changes were made for the overnight period, but fair
warning, that these storms to our west this evening will likely
kick off some boundaries for tomorrow which will probably make
this time tomorrow evening a little more active as things begin to
finally moisten up. The Summertime Pattern will then be here to
stay for at least the next week or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Complex back along the Mississippi River beginning to wind down as
upper ridge just too strong for it to buck. Do expect an outflow
to be laid down for later convective development during the day
Wednesday that will likely affect the Clarksville and Nashville
terminals with the potential for a thunderstorm or two. Otherwise
vfr through the period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Hurley
AVIATION........01/Boyd





000
FXUS64 KOHX 250159
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
859 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms across West Tennessee are really trying
their hardest this evening to make it across that Tennessee River
into Middle Tennessee. The HRRR and other short range models do
have some remnants of a few decaying thunderstorms and showers
making it into the far western portions of Middle Tennessee
before dying off after midnight. Not expecting too many impacts
other than some additional clouds and some light rain for the most
part. Adjusted POPS and temperatures to account for the next 6-12
hours, but really think this area of rain will rapidly die off
thanks to the pretty impressive dry air as exhibited on the KOHX
sounding this evening.

No other changes were made for the overnight period, but fair
warning, that these storms to our west this evening will likely
kick off some boundaries for tomorrow which will probably make
this time tomorrow evening a little more active as things begin to
finally moisten up. The Summertime Pattern will then be here to
stay for at least the next week or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Complex back in eastern Arkansas continuing to hold together as it
crosses Mississippi River and into far western Tennessee. Complex
eating into upper ridge and has managed to hold together and has
gotten farther east than I would have thought. I went with
vicinity showers at Clarksville starting at 01z but will hold off
at Nashville and see how complex evolves. 00z OHX raob is quite
dry in lower levels so will have to moisten up.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Hurley
AVIATION........01/Boyd





000
FXUS64 KOHX 241848
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
148 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface ridge has moved east of Middle Tennessee, with warm air
and higher dew points advecting into the local area and mid/high
clouds streaming in from the west. A few showers have slipped
across the Tennessee River since this morning, but the radar is
operating in clear air at the moment. The 12Z NAM & GFS greatly
increase POP`s tonight as a result of a weak upper trough and pool
of deeper moisture moving across the area, and will at least
include isolated cells across our north, but a lack of
instability, dry sub-850 mb layer and anti-cyclonic flow at the
surface suggest lower POP`s might be more realistic. By tomorrow,
a deep low pressure system will set up over the central Plains,
with a highly amplified pattern developing aloft. This will put
Middle Tennessee firmly under a maritime tropical air mass for
days as the aforementioned surface low will more or less remain in
place until the weekend, when the upper flow breaks down and a
deep low pressure center (almost tropical in appearance) moves
onshore the South Carolina coast. But for the remainder of this
week, we take on more of a summertime pattern with afternoon and
evening instability contributing to isolated/scattered convection.
Given the lack of any well-defined forcing mechanism, we can
expect nothing organized. The SPC does have us under general
thunderstorms for day 3, but there`s nothing to suggest anything
severe for Middle Tennessee through day 7. Look for high and low
temperatures to level off in the mid to upper 80`s and mid to
upper 60`s most areas from tomorrow through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at area terminals
through the forecast period.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon over
northwestern Middle Tennessee, but believe coverage will be too
low to warrant any mention of precipitation in CKV TAF.

A weak shortwave sweeps over western and central sections of the
Mid-state late tonight and Wednesday morning, and introduced a
VCSH for CKV between 09z and 15z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  88  67  89  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
Clarksville    62  86  65  86  66 /  20  20  20  30  20
Crossville     59  84  63  85  66 /  10  10  20  20  10
Columbia       61  88  65  88  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   62  88  65  88  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
Waverly        62  87  66  87  67 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 241751
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1251 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are running a tad above earlier expectations, and
have nudged highs up a degree or two for today. Otherwise, little
change to previous 1st period grids.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at area terminals
through the forecast period.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon over
northwestern Middle Tennessee, but believe coverage will be too
low to warrant any mention of precipitation in CKV TAF.

A weak shortwave sweeps over western and central sections of the
Mid-state late tonight and Wednesday morning, and introduced a
VCSH for CKV between 09z and 15z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 241655
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are running a tad above earlier expectations, and
have nudged highs up a degree or two for today. Otherwise, little
change to previous 1st period grids.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

An upper ridge over the region will bring prevailing VFR through
the next 24 hours. One concern this morning is the area of TSRA
over AR/MO. We think this will weaken, but it is not out of the
question for an isold TSRA to hold together into the CKV area
later today. Otherwise, layers of broken clouds near 10kft and
25kft will be overhead with south winds mostly less than 10kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  64  88  67  88 /  10  10  20  20  30
Clarksville    85  62  85  65  86 /  20  20  30  20  50
Crossville     82  59  84  61  85 /   0   0  10  20  20
Columbia       87  62  87  66  87 /  10  10  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   87  62  87  65  88 /  10  10  10  20  20
Waverly        86  63  86  67  86 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 241150
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Some light showers are approaching the TN River Valley Region
approaching 12Z in association with a weak upper level disturbance
aloft. HRRR model has been the most consistent in sustaining this
feature and pushing it eastward across wrn and cntrl portions of
the mid state thru the mid/late morning hrs. Some question to
whether these isolated light showers will have enough strength to
persist as they move eastward into a more atm subsidence friendly
environment. Thus, at this time, will initially introduce a slight
chance of light showers across western portions of the mid state
through the mid morning hours. Also tweaked hrly temp, dewpoint,
and wind direction/speed grids.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

An upper ridge over the region will bring prevailing VFR through
the next 24 hours. One concern this morning is the area of TSRA
over AR/MO. We think this will weaken, but it is not out of the
question for an isold TSRA to hold together into the CKV area
later today. Otherwise, layers of broken clouds near 10kft and
25kft will be overhead with south winds mostly less than 10kt.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 241118
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
618 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Thu night)

Although the weather pattern itself could be considered somewhat
"straight forward", getting into particular location details/specifics
can definitely lead to quandaries abounding thru Thu night. Model
consensus showing best chance for convection thru Thu night across
nw portions of the mid state with proximity to expected model
shortwave passages the greatest. Models could still be displaying
convective feedback in their solutions though, like the GFS seems
to this morning with a rouge area of moisture approaching the mid
state from the srn Ohio River Valley and moving sewd across at
least ern portions of the area this afternoon. Short range models
also showing some light showers developing across the central MS
River Valley in association with a weak shortwave aloft that could
approaching nw portions of the mid state by no later than the mid
morning hrs, and thus have included a slight chance of light
showers transitioning into a slight chance of light showers and
thunderstorms as the afternoon hrs progress across these
locations. Upper level ridging influences should keep the
remainder of the mid state dry today, but these upper level
ridging influences will not last for long. With an evolution from
surface ridging influences centered across the southern
Appalachians to a surface Bermuda high pressure pattern setting up
across the mid state by late this afternoon, and with progressive
swly flow developing per model solution consensus in reaction to
deep troughing developing across the western U.S. as Wednesday
progresses, and with the above mentioned possible multiple model
weak shortwave passages in swly flow aloft, the mid state weather
pattern, will more than likely be warm and muggy, but a true key
to any convective development across the mid state could be local
diurnal and orographic effects. This pattern could support
isolated to scattered light showers along with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. But otherwise, there is no real focusing
mechanisms in place, no significant sfc fronts, significant upper
level troughing, etc. So, again, would not be surprised that it
might be drier than the models are leading us to believe for
particular locations across the mid state. Additionally, this
summer like type pattern does have the potential of producing a
few strong thunderstorms,but no organized significant threat of
any severe thunderstorms are expected. Likewise, a few of these
thunderstorms could produce some moderate local rainfall amounts
at times in this moisture rich air mass which will be settling
across the mid state, but no organized heavy rainfall/flooding
potential is expected also.

As for temps, they will generally trend 5 to 8 degrees above
seasonal normal values. Highs will generally be in the mid to even
upper 80s, low to mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows during
this period will be generally spanning the 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Fri thru Memorial Day)

A warm and humid pattern will be in place through the holiday
weekend. Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees above normal, with
lows mostly in the low to mid 60s and highs averaging in the mid 80s.
There will be at least small chances for showers and storms each
day, but severe wx is not expected.

On Friday, a high amplitude pattern will be in place with a ridge
along the east coast and a trough over the plains. Deep southerly
flow will bring plenty of moisture up the Ms Valley. Some of this
will push into Mid TN, but the ridge is expected to dominate,
keeping pops in the 20-40 percent range Friday and Friday night.

Through the rest of the weekend and Memorial Day, upper level
heights will be generally elevated from the Mid Atlantic Region back
across the TN Valley. No major wx systems are expected and there
will be no air mass change, so we can expect continued warm and
humid conditions with the potential for isolated, diurnally driven
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

An upper ridge over the region will bring prevailing VFR through
the next 24 hours. One concern this morning is the area of TSRA
over AR/MO. We think this will weaken, but it is not out of the
question for an isold TSRA to hold together into the CKV area
later today. Otherwise, layers of broken clouds near 10kft and
25kft will be overhead with south winds mostly less than 10kt.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 240145
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
845 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Other than a few high clouds streaming into the mid-state from the
west, another quiet night across the area. Even with the light
winds and high pressure dominating, dew point depressions should
be such that any fog development will be very spotty, light and
confined to areas closer to bodies of water.

Temperatures will climb even more on Tuesday with highs well into
the 80s with dry conditions once again.

Afternoon forecast package is in good shape. No changes necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Upper low along east coast with upper trough down through the
plains states with upper ridging in between keeping mostly clear
skies and good flying weather next 24 hours across the Mid State.
Light to near calm winds tonight will become southerly on Tuesday
at 6 knots.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........01/Boyd





000
FXUS64 KOHX 232352
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
652 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Surface ridge is poised to move across Middle Tennessee this
afternoon, ushering in return flow and considerable moisture
advection during the next 24-48 hours. Temperatures will be warmer
today than yesterday and warmer tomorrow than today, with dew points
increasing to near summer-like readings by Wednesday afternoon. By
mid-week, a surface low bearing the usual appendages sets up over
the central Plains and really doesn`t seem to go much of anywhere
for several days. We`ll start introducing POP`s late Tuesday night
and Wednesday, but Thursday appears to be the peak weather day if
you have to pick one. NAM gives us CAPE`s in excess of 3,500 J/kg
and LI`s approaching -10 Thursday afternoon, which is considerably
more instability than the GFS & ECMWF, but scattered storms will
develop, regardless. Temperatures most areas will level off in the
mid 60`s/mid 80`s from tomorrow at least through day 7, which is
several degrees above normal. Nothing in the forecast models
suggests any sort of air mass change until after day 7, so it
appears that isolated/scattered POP`s are warranted most every day
give the persistent moist, unstable environment we`re soon to be
locked into. At this time, the SPC does not have any sort of severe
weather risk for Middle Tennessee through the day 4-8 outlook, so
non-severe storms are about the worst we can expect at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Upper low along east coast with upper trough down through the
plains states with upper ridging in between keeping mostly clear
skies and good flying weather next 24 hours across the Mid State.
Light to near calm winds tonight will become southerly on Tuesday
at 6 knots.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........01/Boyd





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