Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KOHX 311734
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MID
STATE, PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO THE LOW POP`S,
WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF`S. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY EVENING, WITH VFR WX THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311734
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MID
STATE, PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO THE LOW POP`S,
WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF`S. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY EVENING, WITH VFR WX THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 311613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 311613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 311613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NW OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSISTENTLY ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES, SO AM UPDATING THE FORECAST AND ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS. A FEW CELLS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP
FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 311133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 311133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KOHX 311133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 311133
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING TO WSW
10-15KT TODAY...THEN BECMG N WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. FRONT LOOKS
DRY...POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

31

LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 310909
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

.LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  47  74  56 /  10  10  05  30
CLARKSVILLE    76  44  74  55 /  10  10  05  30
CROSSVILLE     70  42  68  47 /  10  10  05  20
COLUMBIA       75  49  76  57 /  20  20  10  30
LAWRENCEBURG   74  48  77  56 /  20  30  20  30
WAVERLY        79  46  75  60 /  20  10  05  30
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310909
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
409 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THU NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU
NIGHT...TEMPS.

AS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...A SHIFT THRU WED AFTERNOON
OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE TO OUR SW...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER
SOLUTION MODEL SOLUTION. PER LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS OF WPC SHORT TERM
RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE GFS/EURO
SOLUTION. DIFFERENCES SUBTLE OVERALL IN THE FIRST PLACE. LET`S TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK. WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISO TSTMS MAINLY S OF I-40 TODAY...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WHERE BEST MOISTURE
/INSTABILITY/AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES MOST PERSISTENT AS STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
BECOMES DIFFUSE JUST S OF THE TN/AL BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AS STATED
BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST S OF THE MID STATE WITH LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MOVING THE MARGINAL AREA NOW JUST S OF THE MID STATE TOO. WILL LEAN
ALSO WITH A COMPROMISE ON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN GFS/EURO
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES...FROM AROUND 70 PLATEAU TO UPPER 70S N PORTIONS OF TN
RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

WILL KEEP MAINLY ISO SHWRS/TSTMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS S OF I-40 THIS
EVENING ALSO...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TN/AL BORDER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S PLATEAU TO AROUND 60 TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID STATE WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS ON THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PROGRESS...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MID STATE
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT NOW WELL NE OF THE MID STATE AS
BROAD WAA SCENARIO BEGINS TO BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS HIGHS WILL
BE SPANNING THE 70S ACROSS THE MID STATE...IN SOME INSTANCES AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
SPANNING THE 60S ON THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING INTO
THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ALOFT POSSIBLE...AS
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.

.LONG TERM(FRI THRU MON)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...ENHANCING THE
POPS...AND BRINGING SOME STRONG...AND PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID STATE. SOME AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S...AND A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST WITH CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT HAVE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...SOME OF THE USUAL
COLDER...SHELTERED AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BRING QUICK WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AIR MASS WILL
GET PUSHED OUT QUICKLY. BY MONDAY...MILDER...MORE SPRING-LIKE AIR
WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  47  74  56 /  10  10  05  30
CLARKSVILLE    76  44  74  55 /  10  10  05  30
CROSSVILLE     70  42  68  47 /  10  10  05  20
COLUMBIA       75  49  76  57 /  20  20  10  30
LAWRENCEBURG   74  48  77  56 /  20  30  20  30
WAVERLY        79  46  75  60 /  20  10  05  30
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13







000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP DURING MID MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP DURING MID MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP DURING MID MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP DURING MID MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 310236
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 310236
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW...CLEAR SKIES REIGN. UPDATE
THIS EVENING REVOLVED AROUND HOURLY DEW POINTS TRENDS BUT AND EVEN
WITH CALM WINDS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN BECOMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOW 70S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN OUR AREA OF FOCUS...OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT 35-40 KTS...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT UPDRAFTS AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICTING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
ENHANCE MUCAPE VALUES AND THE HAIL THREAT AS WELL SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 310011
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 310011
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 310011
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO CREEP IN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301917
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  74  48  75 /   0  20  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    43  73  46  72 /   0  10  20  10
CROSSVILLE     40  67  44  66 /   0  10  20  10
COLUMBIA       42  74  48  74 /   0  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   45  72  50  73 /   0  20  20  30
WAVERLY        46  75  51  74 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301917
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  74  48  75 /   0  20  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    43  73  46  72 /   0  10  20  10
CROSSVILLE     40  67  44  66 /   0  10  20  10
COLUMBIA       42  74  48  74 /   0  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   45  72  50  73 /   0  20  20  30
WAVERLY        46  75  51  74 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 301917
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  74  48  75 /   0  20  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    43  73  46  72 /   0  10  20  10
CROSSVILLE     40  67  44  66 /   0  10  20  10
COLUMBIA       42  74  48  74 /   0  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   45  72  50  73 /   0  20  20  30
WAVERLY        46  75  51  74 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301917
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPS AT EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF MY CWA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS 1021 MBAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN BUT COULD SEE A FEW MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM ARKANSAS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE MID WEST AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WESTWARD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT
18Z THEN DOWN ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER BY 00Z. POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HUGGING
THE ALABAMA BORDER FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY EVENING. MID STATE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO 90 TO 100 KNOT UPPER JETS...ONE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER JUST OUR NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
AT THE SURFACE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. FRONT
GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THIS WAY ON
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE A 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THIS
WAY CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS DO BACK OFF INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  74  48  75 /   0  20  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    43  73  46  72 /   0  10  20  10
CROSSVILLE     40  67  44  66 /   0  10  20  10
COLUMBIA       42  74  48  74 /   0  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   45  72  50  73 /   0  20  20  30
WAVERLY        46  75  51  74 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 301614
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1114 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT`S COLD FROPA, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
A DRY NW SURFACE WIND. GIVEN THE DROP IN DEW POINTS, DO NOT EXPECT
RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A WARM FRONT, BUT ANY
TS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXPECT VFR WX
THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST, WITH A COOLER, DRIER NW SURFACE WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES RAPIDLY FILLING IN. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
PUBLIC FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WE HAD EARLIER. THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW,
SO NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301614
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1114 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT`S COLD FROPA, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
A DRY NW SURFACE WIND. GIVEN THE DROP IN DEW POINTS, DO NOT EXPECT
RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A WARM FRONT, BUT ANY
TS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXPECT VFR WX
THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST, WITH A COOLER, DRIER NW SURFACE WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES RAPIDLY FILLING IN. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
PUBLIC FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WE HAD EARLIER. THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW,
SO NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301614
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1114 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT`S COLD FROPA, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
A DRY NW SURFACE WIND. GIVEN THE DROP IN DEW POINTS, DO NOT EXPECT
RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A WARM FRONT, BUT ANY
TS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXPECT VFR WX
THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST, WITH A COOLER, DRIER NW SURFACE WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES RAPIDLY FILLING IN. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
PUBLIC FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WE HAD EARLIER. THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW,
SO NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 301512
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1012 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST, WITH A COOLER, DRIER NW SURFACE WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES RAPIDLY FILLING IN. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
PUBLIC FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WE HAD EARLIER. THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW,
SO NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 301512
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1012 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST, WITH A COOLER, DRIER NW SURFACE WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES RAPIDLY FILLING IN. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
PUBLIC FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WE HAD EARLIER. THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW,
SO NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 301222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 301014
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 301014
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 301014
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 301014
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 300826
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

.LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  43  74  46 /  10   0  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    64  41  72  43 /  10   0  10  20
CROSSVILLE     60  42  67  46 /  20   0  10  20
COLUMBIA       65  42  74  48 /  10   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   65  45  73  51 /  20   0  20  20
WAVERLY        67  45  74  49 /  10   0  20  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31/21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 300826
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

.LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  43  74  46 /  10   0  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    64  41  72  43 /  10   0  10  20
CROSSVILLE     60  42  67  46 /  20   0  10  20
COLUMBIA       65  42  74  48 /  10   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   65  45  73  51 /  20   0  20  20
WAVERLY        67  45  74  49 /  10   0  20  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31/21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 300826
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

.LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  43  74  46 /  10   0  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    64  41  72  43 /  10   0  10  20
CROSSVILLE     60  42  67  46 /  20   0  10  20
COLUMBIA       65  42  74  48 /  10   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   65  45  73  51 /  20   0  20  20
WAVERLY        67  45  74  49 /  10   0  20  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31/21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 300826
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

.LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  43  74  46 /  10   0  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    64  41  72  43 /  10   0  10  20
CROSSVILLE     60  42  67  46 /  20   0  10  20
COLUMBIA       65  42  74  48 /  10   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   65  45  73  51 /  20   0  20  20
WAVERLY        67  45  74  49 /  10   0  20  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31/21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 300439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUD DECK AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION...AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY FOR KCKV AND KBNA DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR KCSV
INTO THE EARLY MORNING...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE TOO IMPACTFUL ATTM.
MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD OFF WITH THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WHILE IT HASN`T DONE MUCH UPSTREAM...EXPECTATIONS
CONTINUE TO BE FOR ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AS EVIDENT IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE KOHX VAD WIND PROFILER AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS ALL OF THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SOME SMALL HAIL AS 500MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND -18 OR -19
DEGREES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SMALL
CHANCE...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE COULD BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF MIDDLE TN BY 12Z WITH
CLEARING SKIES SHORTLY AFTER THE RAINS END.

UPDATE INCLUDES TRYING TO NAIL DOWN SOME STARTING AND ENDING TIMES
OF TONIGHT`S RAINFALL WITH A LITTLE BETTER RESOLUTION.

GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 300439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUD DECK AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION...AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY FOR KCKV AND KBNA DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR KCSV
INTO THE EARLY MORNING...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE TOO IMPACTFUL ATTM.
MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD OFF WITH THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WHILE IT HASN`T DONE MUCH UPSTREAM...EXPECTATIONS
CONTINUE TO BE FOR ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AS EVIDENT IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE KOHX VAD WIND PROFILER AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS ALL OF THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SOME SMALL HAIL AS 500MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND -18 OR -19
DEGREES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SMALL
CHANCE...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE COULD BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF MIDDLE TN BY 12Z WITH
CLEARING SKIES SHORTLY AFTER THE RAINS END.

UPDATE INCLUDES TRYING TO NAIL DOWN SOME STARTING AND ENDING TIMES
OF TONIGHT`S RAINFALL WITH A LITTLE BETTER RESOLUTION.

GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 300251
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
951 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WHILE IT HASN`T DONE MUCH UPSTREAM...EXPECTATIONS
CONTINUE TO BE FOR ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AS EVIDENT IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE KOHX VAD WIND PROFILER AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS ALL OF THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SOME SMALL HAIL AS 500MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND -18 OR -19
DEGREES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SMALL
CHANCE...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE COULD BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF MIDDLE TN BY 12Z WITH
CLEARING SKIES SHORTLY AFTER THE RAINS END.

UPDATE INCLUDES TRYING TO NAIL DOWN SOME STARTING AND ENDING TIMES
OF TONIGHT`S RAINFALL WITH A LITTLE BETTER RESOLUTION.

GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KCKV SHOULD BE IMPACTED FIRST AS RAIN
CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE NW...FOLLOWED BY KBNA AND FINALLY KCSV. BY
TOMORROW MORNING HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IF MVFR
PREVAILS AT ALL OVERNIGHT AS THIS QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT LONGER TONIGHT BEFORE
CALMING DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 10 KNOTS OUT
OF THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 292329
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KCKV SHOULD BE IMPACTED FIRST AS RAIN
CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE NW...FOLLOWED BY KBNA AND FINALLY KCSV. BY
TOMORROW MORNING HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IF MVFR
PREVAILS AT ALL OVERNIGHT AS THIS QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT LONGER TONIGHT BEFORE
CALMING DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 10 KNOTS OUT
OF THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND PLENTY OF
SUN.

LOW STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN WORKING NORTHEAST FROM MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION AND BELIEVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD THIS WAY AND BECOME
BROKEN WITH TIME. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO A LOW IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS. BY 00Z THIS EVENING FRONT WILL BE DOWN THROUGH SAINT
LOUIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN THIRD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER JUST TO OUR WEST SO THUNDER OVER THE NORTH NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ONLY IN THE
SOUTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI FROM
ABOUT MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD BUT QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT AND MID STATE NEVER
REALLY GETS A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK
WITH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED...FRONT GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
1022 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND QUICKLY SLIPS
EAST WHILE WEAKENING. FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS BUT
STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

CLIMATE...THE LOW THIS MORNING IN NASHVILLE CAME WITHIN 2 DEGREES
OF TYING THE RECORD LOW THIS DATE. THE LOW WAS 24 DEGREES AND THE
RECORD IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1966.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 292329
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KCKV SHOULD BE IMPACTED FIRST AS RAIN
CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE NW...FOLLOWED BY KBNA AND FINALLY KCSV. BY
TOMORROW MORNING HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IF MVFR
PREVAILS AT ALL OVERNIGHT AS THIS QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT LONGER TONIGHT BEFORE
CALMING DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 10 KNOTS OUT
OF THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND PLENTY OF
SUN.

LOW STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN WORKING NORTHEAST FROM MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION AND BELIEVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD THIS WAY AND BECOME
BROKEN WITH TIME. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO A LOW IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS. BY 00Z THIS EVENING FRONT WILL BE DOWN THROUGH SAINT
LOUIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN THIRD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER JUST TO OUR WEST SO THUNDER OVER THE NORTH NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ONLY IN THE
SOUTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI FROM
ABOUT MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD BUT QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT AND MID STATE NEVER
REALLY GETS A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK
WITH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED...FRONT GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
1022 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND QUICKLY SLIPS
EAST WHILE WEAKENING. FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS BUT
STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.

CLIMATE...THE LOW THIS MORNING IN NASHVILLE CAME WITHIN 2 DEGREES
OF TYING THE RECORD LOW THIS DATE. THE LOW WAS 24 DEGREES AND THE
RECORD IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1966.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 291833
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND PLENTY OF
SUN.

LOW STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN WORKING NORTHEAST FROM MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION AND BELIEVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD THIS WAY AND BECOME
BROKEN WITH TIME. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO A LOW IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS. BY 00Z THIS EVENING FRONT WILL BE DOWN THROUGH SAINT
LOUIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN THIRD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER JUST TO OUR WEST SO THUNDER OVER THE NORTH NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ONLY IN THE
SOUTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI FROM
ABOUT MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD BUT QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT AND MID STATE NEVER
REALLY GETS A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK
WITH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...FRONT GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
1022 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND QUICKLY SLIPS
EAST WHILE WEAKENING. FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS BUT
STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.


.CLIMATE...THE LOW THIS MORNING IN NASHVILLE CAME WITHIN 2 DEGREES
OF TYING THE RECORD LOW THIS DATE. THE LOW WAS 24 DEGREES AND THE
RECORD IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1966.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  65  40  72 /  80  10  05  20
CLARKSVILLE    42  66  39  69 /  80  10  05  20
CROSSVILLE     45  57  36  63 /  80  20  05  20
COLUMBIA       46  66  40  73 /  80  10  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   48  65  39  72 /  80  20  05  20
WAVERLY        43  68  40  70 /  80  10  05  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291833
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND PLENTY OF
SUN.

LOW STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN WORKING NORTHEAST FROM MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION AND BELIEVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD THIS WAY AND BECOME
BROKEN WITH TIME. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO A LOW IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS. BY 00Z THIS EVENING FRONT WILL BE DOWN THROUGH SAINT
LOUIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN THIRD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER JUST TO OUR WEST SO THUNDER OVER THE NORTH NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ONLY IN THE
SOUTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI FROM
ABOUT MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD BUT QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT AND MID STATE NEVER
REALLY GETS A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK
WITH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...FRONT GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
1022 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND QUICKLY SLIPS
EAST WHILE WEAKENING. FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS BUT
STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.


.CLIMATE...THE LOW THIS MORNING IN NASHVILLE CAME WITHIN 2 DEGREES
OF TYING THE RECORD LOW THIS DATE. THE LOW WAS 24 DEGREES AND THE
RECORD IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1966.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  65  40  72 /  80  10  05  20
CLARKSVILLE    42  66  39  69 /  80  10  05  20
CROSSVILLE     45  57  36  63 /  80  20  05  20
COLUMBIA       46  66  40  73 /  80  10  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   48  65  39  72 /  80  20  05  20
WAVERLY        43  68  40  70 /  80  10  05  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 291833
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND PLENTY OF
SUN.

LOW STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN WORKING NORTHEAST FROM MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION AND BELIEVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD THIS WAY AND BECOME
BROKEN WITH TIME. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO A LOW IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS. BY 00Z THIS EVENING FRONT WILL BE DOWN THROUGH SAINT
LOUIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN THIRD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER JUST TO OUR WEST SO THUNDER OVER THE NORTH NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ONLY IN THE
SOUTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI FROM
ABOUT MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD BUT QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT AND MID STATE NEVER
REALLY GETS A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK
WITH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...FRONT GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
1022 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND QUICKLY SLIPS
EAST WHILE WEAKENING. FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS BUT
STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.


.CLIMATE...THE LOW THIS MORNING IN NASHVILLE CAME WITHIN 2 DEGREES
OF TYING THE RECORD LOW THIS DATE. THE LOW WAS 24 DEGREES AND THE
RECORD IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1966.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  65  40  72 /  80  10  05  20
CLARKSVILLE    42  66  39  69 /  80  10  05  20
CROSSVILLE     45  57  36  63 /  80  20  05  20
COLUMBIA       46  66  40  73 /  80  10  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   48  65  39  72 /  80  20  05  20
WAVERLY        43  68  40  70 /  80  10  05  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 291833
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND PLENTY OF
SUN.

LOW STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN WORKING NORTHEAST FROM MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION AND BELIEVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD THIS WAY AND BECOME
BROKEN WITH TIME. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO A LOW IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS. BY 00Z THIS EVENING FRONT WILL BE DOWN THROUGH SAINT
LOUIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FRONT TRAVERSES
THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN THIRD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER JUST TO OUR WEST SO THUNDER OVER THE NORTH NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ONLY IN THE
SOUTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI FROM
ABOUT MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD BUT QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT AND MID STATE NEVER
REALLY GETS A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK
WITH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...FRONT GETS SOUTH OF THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
1022 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND QUICKLY SLIPS
EAST WHILE WEAKENING. FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS BUT
STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.


.CLIMATE...THE LOW THIS MORNING IN NASHVILLE CAME WITHIN 2 DEGREES
OF TYING THE RECORD LOW THIS DATE. THE LOW WAS 24 DEGREES AND THE
RECORD IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1966.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      44  65  40  72 /  80  10  05  20
CLARKSVILLE    42  66  39  69 /  80  10  05  20
CROSSVILLE     45  57  36  63 /  80  20  05  20
COLUMBIA       46  66  40  73 /  80  10  05  20
LAWRENCEBURG   48  65  39  72 /  80  20  05  20
WAVERLY        43  68  40  70 /  80  10  05  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291749
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MID-STATE
TERMINALS THROUGH 05Z, THEN BECOME GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
10Z, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR, FROM WEST TO EAST, BTWN 11Z AND
16Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291749
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MID-STATE
TERMINALS THROUGH 05Z, THEN BECOME GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
10Z, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR, FROM WEST TO EAST, BTWN 11Z AND
16Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 291749
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MID-STATE
TERMINALS THROUGH 05Z, THEN BECOME GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
10Z, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR, FROM WEST TO EAST, BTWN 11Z AND
16Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 291749
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MID-STATE
TERMINALS THROUGH 05Z, THEN BECOME GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
10Z, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR, FROM WEST TO EAST, BTWN 11Z AND
16Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291521
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1021 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SKIES WERE NICE AND CLEAR ACROSS THE MID STATE
AT MID-MORNING, THERE WERE TWO AREAS OF CLOUDS ADVANCING ON OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. ONE AREA, TO OUR SOUTHWEST, MARKS AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONSISTS OF A WIDE BAND OF BKN-TO-OVC
CONDITIONS AND CIGS NEAR 3K FT. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING AT
ABOUT 20 KTS AND SHOULD BE IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE OTHER AREA OF MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS, PRESENTLY UP
AROUND STL, SHOULD START SWEEPING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN SFC DEW
POINTS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WILL LIKELY KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 10 TO 16 DEG RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS TO WARM TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 DEGS IN AREAS NEAR THE TN RIVER BY 00Z/30.

HAVE ADJUSTED VARIOUS GRID PARAMETERS TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW
NEWLY-PROJECTED TRENDS AND WILL RELEASE NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS
SHORTLY.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291059 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 29/18Z...WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OUR NW INTO THE MID STATE MAINLY AFTER 30/00Z...RESULTING
IN A QUICK PROGRESSION FROM VFR STRATUS CEILINGS TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT
SHWRS RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS ALSO MAINLY AFTER 30/03Z. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ATM
INSTABILITY/LIFT NEAR CSV FOR ISO TSTMS ALSO...BUT WITH STRONG UNCERTAINTY IN
ACTUAL LOCATION DEVELOPMENT...WILL NOT MENTION AT CSV AFTER 30/06Z PRESENTLY.
PER STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GO WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS CKV 29/17Z-30/02Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT LIGHT SLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO STRENGTHEN PER DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES
THRU 30/00Z...WITH MORE SW/W WINDS EXPECTED APPROACHING 30/12Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 25 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291059 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 29/18Z...WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OUR NW INTO THE MID STATE MAINLY AFTER 30/00Z...RESULTING
IN A QUICK PROGRESSION FROM VFR STRATUS CEILINGS TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT
SHWRS RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS ALSO MAINLY AFTER 30/03Z. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ATM
INSTABILITY/LIFT NEAR CSV FOR ISO TSTMS ALSO...BUT WITH STRONG UNCERTAINTY IN
ACTUAL LOCATION DEVELOPMENT...WILL NOT MENTION AT CSV AFTER 30/06Z PRESENTLY.
PER STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GO WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS CKV 29/17Z-30/02Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT LIGHT SLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO STRENGTHEN PER DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES
THRU 30/00Z...WITH MORE SW/W WINDS EXPECTED APPROACHING 30/12Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 25 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 291059 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 29/18Z...WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OUR NW INTO THE MID STATE MAINLY AFTER 30/00Z...RESULTING
IN A QUICK PROGRESSION FROM VFR STRATUS CEILINGS TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT
SHWRS RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS ALSO MAINLY AFTER 30/03Z. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ATM
INSTABILITY/LIFT NEAR CSV FOR ISO TSTMS ALSO...BUT WITH STRONG UNCERTAINTY IN
ACTUAL LOCATION DEVELOPMENT...WILL NOT MENTION AT CSV AFTER 30/06Z PRESENTLY.
PER STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GO WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS CKV 29/17Z-30/02Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT LIGHT SLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO STRENGTHEN PER DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES
THRU 30/00Z...WITH MORE SW/W WINDS EXPECTED APPROACHING 30/12Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 25 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291059 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 29/18Z...WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OUR NW INTO THE MID STATE MAINLY AFTER 30/00Z...RESULTING
IN A QUICK PROGRESSION FROM VFR STRATUS CEILINGS TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT
SHWRS RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS ALSO MAINLY AFTER 30/03Z. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ATM
INSTABILITY/LIFT NEAR CSV FOR ISO TSTMS ALSO...BUT WITH STRONG UNCERTAINTY IN
ACTUAL LOCATION DEVELOPMENT...WILL NOT MENTION AT CSV AFTER 30/06Z PRESENTLY.
PER STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GO WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS CKV 29/17Z-30/02Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT LIGHT SLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO STRENGTHEN PER DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES
THRU 30/00Z...WITH MORE SW/W WINDS EXPECTED APPROACHING 30/12Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 25 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 290840 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TEMP AT CSV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 25 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VAULES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  44  65  40 /   0  70  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    62  42  63  41 /  10  70  10  05
CROSSVILLE     52  43  59  36 /   0  70  20  05
COLUMBIA       63  46  65  41 /   0  70  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   61  47  64  41 /   0  70  20  05
WAVERLY        63  43  65  41 /  10  70  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

21/31









000
FXUS64 KOHX 290840 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TEMP AT CSV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 25 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VAULES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  44  65  40 /   0  70  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    62  42  63  41 /  10  70  10  05
CROSSVILLE     52  43  59  36 /   0  70  20  05
COLUMBIA       63  46  65  41 /   0  70  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   61  47  64  41 /   0  70  20  05
WAVERLY        63  43  65  41 /  10  70  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

21/31








000
FXUS64 KOHX 290825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 21 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VAULES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  44  65  40 /   0  70  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    62  42  63  41 /  10  70  10  05
CROSSVILLE     52  43  59  36 /   0  70  20  05
COLUMBIA       63  46  65  41 /   0  70  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   61  47  64  41 /   0  70  20  05
WAVERLY        63  43  65  41 /  10  70  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

21/31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 21 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VAULES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  44  65  40 /   0  70  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    62  42  63  41 /  10  70  10  05
CROSSVILLE     52  43  59  36 /   0  70  20  05
COLUMBIA       63  46  65  41 /   0  70  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   61  47  64  41 /   0  70  20  05
WAVERLY        63  43  65  41 /  10  70  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

21/31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 21 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VAULES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  44  65  40 /   0  70  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    62  42  63  41 /  10  70  10  05
CROSSVILLE     52  43  59  36 /   0  70  20  05
COLUMBIA       63  46  65  41 /   0  70  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   61  47  64  41 /   0  70  20  05
WAVERLY        63  43  65  41 /  10  70  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

21/31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 290825
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 21 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VAULES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  44  65  40 /   0  70  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    62  42  63  41 /  10  70  10  05
CROSSVILLE     52  43  59  36 /   0  70  20  05
COLUMBIA       63  46  65  41 /   0  70  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   61  47  64  41 /   0  70  20  05
WAVERLY        63  43  65  41 /  10  70  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

21/31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290447
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD. MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
KCKV BEING THE FIRST TERMINAL THAT WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. MVFR
CIGS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING AS PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE A BIT. FOR NOW...DO NOT HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAF FOR ANY
SITE AFTER 00Z JUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR OUR
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES AS MANY SPOTS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW
20S. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL VERY HAZARDOUS FOR ANY
SPRING VEGETATION THAT MAY BE EXPOSED TONIGHT. TAKE THE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BREEZY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TOMORROW...
BUT RAIN IS ON DECK AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AREN`T OUT OF
THE QUESTION SUNDAY EVENING. MORE ON THIS WITH THE FULL FORECAST
PACKAGE TONIGHT.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 290447
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD. MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
KCKV BEING THE FIRST TERMINAL THAT WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. MVFR
CIGS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING AS PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE A BIT. FOR NOW...DO NOT HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAF FOR ANY
SITE AFTER 00Z JUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR OUR
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES AS MANY SPOTS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW
20S. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL VERY HAZARDOUS FOR ANY
SPRING VEGETATION THAT MAY BE EXPOSED TONIGHT. TAKE THE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BREEZY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TOMORROW...
BUT RAIN IS ON DECK AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AREN`T OUT OF
THE QUESTION SUNDAY EVENING. MORE ON THIS WITH THE FULL FORECAST
PACKAGE TONIGHT.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290224
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
924 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR OUR
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES AS MANY SPOTS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW
20S. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL VERY HAZARDOUS FOR ANY
SPRING VEGETATION THAT MAY BE EXPOSED TONIGHT. TAKE THE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BREEZY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TOMORROW...
BUT RAIN IS ON DECK AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AREN`T OUT OF
THE QUESTION SUNDAY EVENING. MORE ON THIS WITH THE FULL FORECAST
PACKAGE TONIGHT.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...BUT
UNTIL THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290224
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
924 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR OUR
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES AS MANY SPOTS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW
20S. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL VERY HAZARDOUS FOR ANY
SPRING VEGETATION THAT MAY BE EXPOSED TONIGHT. TAKE THE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BREEZY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TOMORROW...
BUT RAIN IS ON DECK AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AREN`T OUT OF
THE QUESTION SUNDAY EVENING. MORE ON THIS WITH THE FULL FORECAST
PACKAGE TONIGHT.

UPDATES ON THE WAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...BUT
UNTIL THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 282341
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...BUT
UNTIL THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING DOWN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HARD FREEZE
FELT ACROSS THE MID STATE. TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S AT MID AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUED TO ADVECT COOL AIR DOWN THIS WAY. CURRENTLY...A 1030 MBAR
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO GULF REGION. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND CAROLINAS. OFF TO OUR WEST
AND NOT VERY FAR AWAY IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE QUITE WELL WORKING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANNEL FLOW IS EVIDENT THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD SHOT OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY NOSING DOWN THROUGH THIS SAME AREA ON BACKSIDE
OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH. LIGHT PRECIP HAS ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY IN THE INFRARED
OVER MONTANA WILL TAKE A DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
IOWA BY 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ON
SUNDAY AND EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTH TEXAS BY 18Z SUNDAY. DRY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY HERE IN THE
MID STATE BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS
FRONT TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. FRONT EXITS MID STATE EARLY MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
PULLING OFF THE PLATEAU BEFORE NOON MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS
1021 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT WONT GO VERY
FAR AND WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH ONLY MAKE A RETURN TRIP AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WORK THIS WAY SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY EAST WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST UP ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER BACK INTO A LOW IN KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOW 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CLIMATE...RECORD LOW AT NASHVILLE FOR MARCH 29TH IS 22 DEGREES
SET IN 1966.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282341
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...BUT
UNTIL THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING DOWN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HARD FREEZE
FELT ACROSS THE MID STATE. TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S AT MID AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUED TO ADVECT COOL AIR DOWN THIS WAY. CURRENTLY...A 1030 MBAR
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO GULF REGION. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND CAROLINAS. OFF TO OUR WEST
AND NOT VERY FAR AWAY IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE QUITE WELL WORKING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANNEL FLOW IS EVIDENT THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD SHOT OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY NOSING DOWN THROUGH THIS SAME AREA ON BACKSIDE
OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH. LIGHT PRECIP HAS ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY IN THE INFRARED
OVER MONTANA WILL TAKE A DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
IOWA BY 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ON
SUNDAY AND EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTH TEXAS BY 18Z SUNDAY. DRY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY HERE IN THE
MID STATE BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS
FRONT TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. FRONT EXITS MID STATE EARLY MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
PULLING OFF THE PLATEAU BEFORE NOON MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS
1021 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT WONT GO VERY
FAR AND WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH ONLY MAKE A RETURN TRIP AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WORK THIS WAY SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY EAST WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST UP ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER BACK INTO A LOW IN KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOW 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CLIMATE...RECORD LOW AT NASHVILLE FOR MARCH 29TH IS 22 DEGREES
SET IN 1966.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 282341
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...BUT
UNTIL THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING DOWN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HARD FREEZE
FELT ACROSS THE MID STATE. TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S AT MID AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUED TO ADVECT COOL AIR DOWN THIS WAY. CURRENTLY...A 1030 MBAR
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO GULF REGION. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND CAROLINAS. OFF TO OUR WEST
AND NOT VERY FAR AWAY IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE QUITE WELL WORKING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANNEL FLOW IS EVIDENT THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD SHOT OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY NOSING DOWN THROUGH THIS SAME AREA ON BACKSIDE
OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH. LIGHT PRECIP HAS ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY IN THE INFRARED
OVER MONTANA WILL TAKE A DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
IOWA BY 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ON
SUNDAY AND EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTH TEXAS BY 18Z SUNDAY. DRY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY HERE IN THE
MID STATE BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS
FRONT TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. FRONT EXITS MID STATE EARLY MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
PULLING OFF THE PLATEAU BEFORE NOON MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS
1021 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT WONT GO VERY
FAR AND WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH ONLY MAKE A RETURN TRIP AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WORK THIS WAY SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY EAST WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST UP ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER BACK INTO A LOW IN KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOW 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CLIMATE...RECORD LOW AT NASHVILLE FOR MARCH 29TH IS 22 DEGREES
SET IN 1966.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 282341
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...BUT
UNTIL THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING DOWN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HARD FREEZE
FELT ACROSS THE MID STATE. TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S AT MID AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUED TO ADVECT COOL AIR DOWN THIS WAY. CURRENTLY...A 1030 MBAR
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO GULF REGION. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND CAROLINAS. OFF TO OUR WEST
AND NOT VERY FAR AWAY IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE QUITE WELL WORKING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANNEL FLOW IS EVIDENT THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD SHOT OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY NOSING DOWN THROUGH THIS SAME AREA ON BACKSIDE
OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH. LIGHT PRECIP HAS ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY IN THE INFRARED
OVER MONTANA WILL TAKE A DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
IOWA BY 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ON
SUNDAY AND EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTH TEXAS BY 18Z SUNDAY. DRY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY HERE IN THE
MID STATE BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS
FRONT TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. FRONT EXITS MID STATE EARLY MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
PULLING OFF THE PLATEAU BEFORE NOON MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS
1021 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT WONT GO VERY
FAR AND WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH ONLY MAKE A RETURN TRIP AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WORK THIS WAY SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY EAST WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST UP ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER BACK INTO A LOW IN KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOW 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CLIMATE...RECORD LOW AT NASHVILLE FOR MARCH 29TH IS 22 DEGREES
SET IN 1966.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING DOWN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HARD FREEZE
FELT ACROSS THE MID STATE. TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S AT MID AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUED TO ADVECT COOL AIR DOWN THIS WAY. CURRENTLY...A 1030 MBAR
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO GULF REGION. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND CAROLINAS. OFF TO OUR WEST
AND NOT VERY FAR AWAY IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE QUITE WELL WORKING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANNEL FLOW IS EVIDENT THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD SHOT OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY NOSING DOWN THROUGH THIS SAME AREA ON BACKSIDE
OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH. LIGHT PRECIP HAS ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY IN THE INFRARED
OVER MONTANA WILL TAKE A DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
IOWA BY 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ON
SUNDAY AND EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTH TEXAS BY 18Z SUNDAY. DRY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY HERE IN THE
MID STATE BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS
FRONT TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. FRONT EXITS MID STATE EARLY MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
PULLING OFF THE PLATEAU BEFORE NOON MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS
1021 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT WONT GO VERY
FAR AND WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH ONLY MAKE A RETURN TRIP AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WORK THIS WAY SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY EAST WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST UP ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER BACK INTO A LOW IN KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOW 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.CLIMATE...RECORD LOW AT NASHVILLE FOR MARCH 29TH IS 22 DEGREES
SET IN 1966.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      27  59  44  64 /   0   0  70  10
CLARKSVILLE    26  58  42  63 /   0  10  70  10
CROSSVILLE     24  52  40  59 /   0   0  70  20
COLUMBIA       27  60  46  65 /   0   0  70  20
LAWRENCEBURG   28  60  46  66 /   0   0  70  20
WAVERLY        28  59  43  64 /   0  10  70  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 282002
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOWS THIS MORNING DOWN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HARD FREEZE
FELT ACROSS THE MID STATE. TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S AT MID AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUED TO ADVECT COOL AIR DOWN THIS WAY. CURRENTLY...A 1030 MBAR
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO GULF REGION. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND CAROLINAS. OFF TO OUR WEST
AND NOT VERY FAR AWAY IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN THE VISIBLE QUITE WELL WORKING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANNEL FLOW IS EVIDENT THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD SHOT OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY NOSING DOWN THROUGH THIS SAME AREA ON BACKSIDE
OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH. LIGHT PRECIP HAS ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...THE SHORT WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY IN THE INFRARED
OVER MONTANA WILL TAKE A DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
IOWA BY 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ON
SUNDAY AND EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTH TEXAS BY 18Z SUNDAY. DRY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY HERE IN THE
MID STATE BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS
FRONT TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. FRONT EXITS MID STATE EARLY MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
PULLING OFF THE PLATEAU BEFORE NOON MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS
1021 MBAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT WONT GO VERY
FAR AND WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH ONLY MAKE A RETURN TRIP AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WORK THIS WAY SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY EAST WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST UP ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER BACK INTO A LOW IN KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY AND IN THE LOW 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.CLIMATE...RECORD LOW AT NASHVILLE FOR MARCH 29TH IS 22 DEGREES
SET IN 1966.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      27  59  44  64 /   0   0  70  10
CLARKSVILLE    26  58  42  63 /   0  10  70  10
CROSSVILLE     24  52  40  59 /   0   0  70  20
COLUMBIA       27  60  46  65 /   0   0  70  20
LAWRENCEBURG   28  60  46  66 /   0   0  70  20
WAVERLY        28  59  43  64 /   0  10  70  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$
BOYD
01








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities