Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KOHX 291156
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS. LOOK FOR
FROPA LATER TODAY, WITH BRISK WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW, AND VFR
CIGS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT BNA & CKV, DROPPING TO MVFR
AT CSV BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 291156
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS. LOOK FOR
FROPA LATER TODAY, WITH BRISK WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW, AND VFR
CIGS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT BNA & CKV, DROPPING TO MVFR
AT CSV BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291007
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      57  29  43  25 /  30  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    55  27  42  24 /  30  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     50  28  38  21 /  40  30  05  05
COLUMBIA       57  31  44  26 /  30  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   57  33  45  27 /  30  10   0   0
WAVERLY        57  29  44  26 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 291007
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      57  29  43  25 /  30  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    55  27  42  24 /  30  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     50  28  38  21 /  40  30  05  05
COLUMBIA       57  31  44  26 /  30  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   57  33  45  27 /  30  10   0   0
WAVERLY        57  29  44  26 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 290512
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1112 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWERING CIGS AS WELL
AS ISO-SCT LIGHT PCPN. CIGS LARGELY MVFR 18ZTHU-06ZFRI FRAME.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
QUITE GUSTY AFTER 12Z. NORTHWEST SHIFT EXPECTED TMRW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 290512
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1112 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWERING CIGS AS WELL
AS ISO-SCT LIGHT PCPN. CIGS LARGELY MVFR 18ZTHU-06ZFRI FRAME.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
QUITE GUSTY AFTER 12Z. NORTHWEST SHIFT EXPECTED TMRW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 290232
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 290232
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
832 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
HOLD TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS. ITS POSSIBLE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE MORNING
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 290019
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE MORNING
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.



&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 282126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT PROVIDED A FEW CLOUDY DAYS WITH LIGHT PRECIP
FOR MIDDLE TN HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE TO INCH ITS WAY ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED
TO WARM TEMPS TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE GOING ABOVE
AVERAGE TOMORROW. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND PICK UP SPEED AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND GET A GOOD HEAD START ON WARMER TEMPS
TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR PRECIP
CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. EARLY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS WAA LOOKS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TN...850MB TEMPS DROP PRETTY QUICKLY.
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS -7C NEAR THE KY
BORDER...AND AS WARM AS 3C TO THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD AT 850MB...SURFACE WET BULBS ARE WELL ABOVE 32F EARLY ON.
DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE WARM AIR IS NEAR THE SURFACE...PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS TO BE
MOSTLY SNOW. PUT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE TROUGH AS SLOWER TRANSITION AND COLDER TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE REGION RETURNS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ATTM...WITH BELOW ZERO 850MB TEMPS MAINLY NORTH OF I40. WENT WITH
RAIN FOR NOW BUT DEPENDING ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SNOW MENTION FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIP LOOKS TO SWITCH OVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS WAVE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA
BY THE TIME SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE
BACKSIDE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY ATTM.

A ZONAL/NW FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AS THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIP OVER
AL/GA AND THE ECMWF PLACES MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. BOTH MODELS HOWEVER LOOK TO GIVE THE REGION
RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY BRINGS DOWN
MORE COLD AIR...AND CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  54  33  43 /  20  30  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  54  30  42 /  20  30  10   0
CROSSVILLE     34  48  28  38 /  10  40  30  05
COLUMBIA       38  55  32  44 /  10  30  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   39  55  32  45 /  10  30  10   0
WAVERLY        42  56  32  44 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 282126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT PROVIDED A FEW CLOUDY DAYS WITH LIGHT PRECIP
FOR MIDDLE TN HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE TO INCH ITS WAY ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED
TO WARM TEMPS TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY BEFORE GOING ABOVE
AVERAGE TOMORROW. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND PICK UP SPEED AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND GET A GOOD HEAD START ON WARMER TEMPS
TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR PRECIP
CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. EARLY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS WAA LOOKS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TN...850MB TEMPS DROP PRETTY QUICKLY.
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS -7C NEAR THE KY
BORDER...AND AS WARM AS 3C TO THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD AT 850MB...SURFACE WET BULBS ARE WELL ABOVE 32F EARLY ON.
DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE WARM AIR IS NEAR THE SURFACE...PRECIP
AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS TO BE
MOSTLY SNOW. PUT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE TROUGH AS SLOWER TRANSITION AND COLDER TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE REGION RETURNS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ATTM...WITH BELOW ZERO 850MB TEMPS MAINLY NORTH OF I40. WENT WITH
RAIN FOR NOW BUT DEPENDING ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SNOW MENTION FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIP LOOKS TO SWITCH OVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS WAVE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA
BY THE TIME SNOW CHANCES INCREASE. HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE
BACKSIDE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY ATTM.

A ZONAL/NW FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AS THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIP OVER
AL/GA AND THE ECMWF PLACES MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. BOTH MODELS HOWEVER LOOK TO GIVE THE REGION
RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY BRINGS DOWN
MORE COLD AIR...AND CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  54  33  43 /  20  30  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    41  54  30  42 /  20  30  10   0
CROSSVILLE     34  48  28  38 /  10  40  30  05
COLUMBIA       38  55  32  44 /  10  30  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   39  55  32  45 /  10  30  10   0
WAVERLY        42  56  32  44 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281742 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MAJORITY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 29/18Z. SKC CONDITIONS 29/11Z W -
29/13Z E UNTIL BKN ALTOSTRATUS APPROACHES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM MS RIVER VALLEY. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID STATE BY
29/18Z...BKN STRATUS VFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT RAINFALL...
VFR VSBYS SHOULD HOLD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE CKV BY 29/16Z PER DEEPEST
MOISTURE DEPTH/FRONTAL PROXIMITY. SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SE TO S/SW WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 29/14Z AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281742 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MAJORITY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 29/18Z. SKC CONDITIONS 29/11Z W -
29/13Z E UNTIL BKN ALTOSTRATUS APPROACHES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM MS RIVER VALLEY. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID STATE BY
29/18Z...BKN STRATUS VFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT RAINFALL...
VFR VSBYS SHOULD HOLD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE CKV BY 29/16Z PER DEEPEST
MOISTURE DEPTH/FRONTAL PROXIMITY. SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SE TO S/SW WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 29/14Z AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281547 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281547 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281547 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281547 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 281214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19














000
FXUS64 KOHX 281214
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19













000
FXUS64 KOHX 281129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
529 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO ERODE BY
13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WITH SFC WINDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 281129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
529 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO ERODE BY
13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WITH SFC WINDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 281027
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19










000
FXUS64 KOHX 281027
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19











000
FXUS64 KOHX 281024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19









000
FXUS64 KOHX 281024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19










000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280943
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUNSHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR LIKELY POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER
RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  38  54  31 /   0  20  30  10
CLARKSVILLE    48  39  53  29 /   0  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     43  34  49  28 /   0  10  40  30
COLUMBIA       50  38  55  31 /   0  20  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  38  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
WAVERLY        50  41  55  30 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280551
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE PLATEAU...EVEN
WITH LOW DECK OVERHEAD SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. IF SKIES
CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT FOG COULD BECOME DENSE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280551
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE PLATEAU...EVEN
WITH LOW DECK OVERHEAD SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. IF SKIES
CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT FOG COULD BECOME DENSE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280551
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE PLATEAU...EVEN
WITH LOW DECK OVERHEAD SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. IF SKIES
CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT FOG COULD BECOME DENSE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280518
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1118 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PESKY MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH BUT DRYING
IS OCCURRING. EXPECTED CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT
CKV TO CSV 08-11Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 12Z THROUGH REMAINDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280518
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1118 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PESKY MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH BUT DRYING
IS OCCURRING. EXPECTED CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT
CKV TO CSV 08-11Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 12Z THROUGH REMAINDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07








000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280302
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COMBO IS DWINDLING AS IT MOVES
DOWN INTERSTATE 65 SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK UP
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO FORECAST LOWS.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
727 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW AND GRAUPEL IN
A NORTH TO SOUTH 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FOR EAST CENTRAL MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. 01Z LAPS SHOWING ABOUT 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
950 MBARS TO 850 MBARS. THIS SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01








000
FXUS64 KOHX 280127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
727 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW AND GRAUPEL IN
A NORTH TO SOUTH 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FOR EAST CENTRAL MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. 01Z LAPS SHOWING ABOUT 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
950 MBARS TO 850 MBARS. THIS SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
1026 MBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING RIDGING
DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WE STILL HAVE STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN U.S. LAPS SOUNDING SHOWING ABOUT
A 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO EXPECT MVFR LOW DECK TO REMAIN
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY PLATEAU AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SCOUR THIS OUT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
1026 MBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING RIDGING
DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WE STILL HAVE STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN U.S. LAPS SOUNDING SHOWING ABOUT
A 100 MBAR LAYER OF MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS OF TROPOSPHERE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO EXPECT MVFR LOW DECK TO REMAIN
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY PLATEAU AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SCOUR THIS OUT.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 272054
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 30S...WHERE THE FOLKS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE CLOUDS HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENTLY
SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE PLATEAU
BUT THERE MIGHT BE A WRENCH THROWN INTO THOSE PLANS IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY...WITH A
WARMUP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.  QPFS ARE SEVERELY LACKING AT ANY POINT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ANYWHERE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

WE WILL COOL OFF A BIT BEHIND THE THURSDAY`S FRONT...BUT THE AIRMASS
THAT COMES DOWN OUT OF CANADA JUST ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.  IT
WILL HOWEVER DRY THINGS OUT WELL FOR US...WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE US
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CURRENT GUIDANCE.

THE FOCUS IS THEN ON THE SYSTEM DUE IN HERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A LITTLE BONE OF CONTENTION IS WITH THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY.  UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A SWLY 850MB JET STARTING TO
KICK UP...I`M GOING TO PUSH SATURDAY`S HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE
CONSALL...AND IT PROBABLY WILL EVEN PUSH 50 DEGREES THAT AFTERNOON.
ALL OF IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS
PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MORE CLOUDS EQUALS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.

I TALKED YESTERDAY ABOUT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE CAN EXPECT AT
THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE PUSHED THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAY OFF TO
THE NORTH...COMPARED TO WHERE IT STARTED OUT...WELL SOUTH OF US.
FOR THIS REASON...I HAVE BUMPED POPS AND INCREASED THE DEW POINT
TREND INTO SUNDAY.  EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE...SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING.  FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH JUST RAIN SUNDAY WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.25-0.75 INCH RANGE.  I HAVE HOWEVER NOTICED A
CONVERGENT LLJ SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MIGHT HELP IN GETTING SOME MENTION OF THUNDER INTO
FUTURE FORECASTS.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF MIDDLE TN VERY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...COLD AIR COULD CATCH THE
PRECIP BEFORE IT CLEARS THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT.

STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  WE
SHOULD SEE A COOL OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO
EXCESSIVELY COLD...WITH TUESDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING LIKE THE
COLDEST MORNING NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      27  49  38  54 /   0   0  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    26  48  39  53 /   0   0  20  30
CROSSVILLE     21  43  34  49 /   0   0  10  40
COLUMBIA       26  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   28  50  38  55 /   0   0  10  30
WAVERLY        28  50  41  55 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 272054
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 30S...WHERE THE FOLKS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE CLOUDS HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENTLY
SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE PLATEAU
BUT THERE MIGHT BE A WRENCH THROWN INTO THOSE PLANS IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY...WITH A
WARMUP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.  QPFS ARE SEVERELY LACKING AT ANY POINT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ANYWHERE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

WE WILL COOL OFF A BIT BEHIND THE THURSDAY`S FRONT...BUT THE AIRMASS
THAT COMES DOWN OUT OF CANADA JUST ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.  IT
WILL HOWEVER DRY THINGS OUT WELL FOR US...WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE US
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CURRENT GUIDANCE.

THE FOCUS IS THEN ON THE SYSTEM DUE IN HERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A LITTLE BONE OF CONTENTION IS WITH THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY.  UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A SWLY 850MB JET STARTING TO
KICK UP...I`M GOING TO PUSH SATURDAY`S HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE
CONSALL...AND IT PROBABLY WILL EVEN PUSH 50 DEGREES THAT AFTERNOON.
ALL OF IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS
PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MORE CLOUDS EQUALS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.

I TALKED YESTERDAY ABOUT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE CAN EXPECT AT
THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE PUSHED THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAY OFF TO
THE NORTH...COMPARED TO WHERE IT STARTED OUT...WELL SOUTH OF US.
FOR THIS REASON...I HAVE BUMPED POPS AND INCREASED THE DEW POINT
TREND INTO SUNDAY.  EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE...SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING.  FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH JUST RAIN SUNDAY WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.25-0.75 INCH RANGE.  I HAVE HOWEVER NOTICED A
CONVERGENT LLJ SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MIGHT HELP IN GETTING SOME MENTION OF THUNDER INTO
FUTURE FORECASTS.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF MIDDLE TN VERY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...COLD AIR COULD CATCH THE
PRECIP BEFORE IT CLEARS THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT.

STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  WE
SHOULD SEE A COOL OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO
EXCESSIVELY COLD...WITH TUESDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING LIKE THE
COLDEST MORNING NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      27  49  38  54 /   0   0  20  30
CLARKSVILLE    26  48  39  53 /   0   0  20  30
CROSSVILLE     21  43  34  49 /   0   0  10  40
COLUMBIA       26  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   28  50  38  55 /   0   0  10  30
WAVERLY        28  50  41  55 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271743
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271743
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOUD DECK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. KCSV MAY SEE IFR CIGS
ON AND OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND KBNA AND KCSV MAY IMPROVE TO VFR
BRIEFLY AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1013 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

CLOUD COVER HAS SLID DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR THE NORTHEAST AS SOME LINGERING CHANCES WILL STICK
AROUND IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO
BE A BIT COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND THE LONGEST. AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
WARM UP MORE THAN WHAT GUIDANCE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE FORECASTED
HIGHS. MAY ADJUST TEMPS A BIT MORE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271613
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1013 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

CLOUD COVER HAS SLID DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR THE NORTHEAST AS SOME LINGERING CHANCES WILL STICK
AROUND IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO
BE A BIT COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND THE LONGEST. AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
WARM UP MORE THAN WHAT GUIDANCE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE FORECASTED
HIGHS. MAY ADJUST TEMPS A BIT MORE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
521 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...CLOUDS DECK IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO
ERODE, WITH VFR CIGS LASTING INTO THE EVENING AT BNA AND CSV. CIGS
WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN IFR & MVFR AT CSV AS BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PULLS
OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW INDICATED OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF KY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE SOUTHWARD MOVING IMPULSE.
HOWEVER...BEST REGION OF PVA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE MID STATE...NORTHERN AREAS OF THE PLATEAU MAY
BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. THUS...WITH HRRR IN AGREEMENT WITH
TRENDING TOWARD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL...WILL OPT TO TREND
DOWNWARD THE SNOW THREAT. HALF INCH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU ONLY FOR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY A TRACE TO A
QUARTER INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAT. AREAS JUST WEST OF THE
PLATEAU COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEARING LINE NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST
TO OUR NORTH. COLD TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 20
PLATEAU...AND MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE MID STATE SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM UP CLOSE TO
50 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ON APPROACH AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WED NT INTO THURSDAY. THE
SFC LOW WILL PASS A GOOD DISTANCE TO THE NORTH OF TN. TEMPS WILL
THEREFORE REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.

IN THE EXT FCST...COLDER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. THEN...THE GULF STORM...THAT WE HAVE BEEN
LOOKING AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WILL BEGIN TO GET ITS ACT
TOGETHER. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...THE EURO MODEL WAS COLDER AND WAS
SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT WHILE THE GFS WAS A WARMER RAIN
SCENARIO. WELL...THE EURO HAS BACKED OFF AND IS NOW SHOWING MORE OF
A N-S TROUGH INVERSION AS OPPOSED TO THE COLDER W-E AXIS. THIS NOW
MATCHES UP WITH THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION. THUS...WILL TREND TOWARD
MORE OF A RAIN EVENT FOR SAT NT INTO SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...LOOKS
LIKE ABOUT 1/2 TO PERHAPS 3/4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE IS PULLING
OUT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

MON AND TUES OF NEXT WEEK LOOK COLD...BUT NOTHING TOO BAD AS UPPER
FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY. SPLIT FLOW IS INDICATED BUT THE SOUTHERN JET
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. JUST DRY WITH TEMPS 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271121
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
521 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...CLOUDS DECK IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO
ERODE, WITH VFR CIGS LASTING INTO THE EVENING AT BNA AND CSV. CIGS
WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN IFR & MVFR AT CSV AS BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PULLS
OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW INDICATED OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF KY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE SOUTHWARD MOVING IMPULSE.
HOWEVER...BEST REGION OF PVA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE MID STATE...NORTHERN AREAS OF THE PLATEAU MAY
BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. THUS...WITH HRRR IN AGREEMENT WITH
TRENDING TOWARD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL...WILL OPT TO TREND
DOWNWARD THE SNOW THREAT. HALF INCH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU ONLY FOR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY A TRACE TO A
QUARTER INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAT. AREAS JUST WEST OF THE
PLATEAU COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEARING LINE NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST
TO OUR NORTH. COLD TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 20
PLATEAU...AND MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE MID STATE SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM UP CLOSE TO
50 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ON APPROACH AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WED NT INTO THURSDAY. THE
SFC LOW WILL PASS A GOOD DISTANCE TO THE NORTH OF TN. TEMPS WILL
THEREFORE REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.

IN THE EXT FCST...COLDER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. THEN...THE GULF STORM...THAT WE HAVE BEEN
LOOKING AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WILL BEGIN TO GET ITS ACT
TOGETHER. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...THE EURO MODEL WAS COLDER AND WAS
SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT WHILE THE GFS WAS A WARMER RAIN
SCENARIO. WELL...THE EURO HAS BACKED OFF AND IS NOW SHOWING MORE OF
A N-S TROUGH INVERSION AS OPPOSED TO THE COLDER W-E AXIS. THIS NOW
MATCHES UP WITH THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION. THUS...WILL TREND TOWARD
MORE OF A RAIN EVENT FOR SAT NT INTO SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...LOOKS
LIKE ABOUT 1/2 TO PERHAPS 3/4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE IS PULLING
OUT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

MON AND TUES OF NEXT WEEK LOOK COLD...BUT NOTHING TOO BAD AS UPPER
FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY. SPLIT FLOW IS INDICATED BUT THE SOUTHERN JET
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. JUST DRY WITH TEMPS 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270915
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW INDICATED OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF KY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE SOUTHWARD MOVING IMPULSE.
HOWEVER...BEST REGION OF PVA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE MID STATE...NORTHERN AREAS OF THE PLATEAU MAY
BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. THUS...WITH HRRR IN AGREEMENT WITH
TRENDING TOWARD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL...WILL OPT TO TREND
DOWNWARD THE SNOW THREAT. HALF INCH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU ONLY FOR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY A TRACE TO A
QUARTER INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAT. AREAS JUST WEST OF THE
PLATEAU COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEARING LINE NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST
TO OUR NORTH. COLD TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 20
PLATEAU...AND MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE MID STATE SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM UP CLOSE TO
50 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ON APPROACH AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WED NT INTO THURSDAY. THE
SFC LOW WILL PASS A GOOD DISTANCE TO THE NORTH OF TN. TEMPS WILL
THEREFORE REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.

IN THE EXT FCST...COLDER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. THEN...THE GULF STORM...THAT WE HAVE BEEN
LOOKING AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WILL BEGIN TO GET ITS ACT
TOGETHER. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...THE EURO MODEL WAS COLDER AND WAS
SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT WHILE THE GFS WAS A WARMER RAIN
SCENARIO. WELL...THE EURO HAS BACKED OFF AND IS NOW SHOWING MORE OF
A N-S TROUGH INVERSION AS OPPOSED TO THE COLDER W-E AXIS. THIS NOW
MATCHES UP WITH THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION. THUS...WILL TREND TOWARD
MORE OF A RAIN EVENT FOR SAT NT INTO SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...LOOKS
LIKE ABOUT 1/2 TO PERHAPS 3/4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE IS PULLING
OUT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

MON AND TUES OF NEXT WEEK LOOK COLD...BUT NOTHING TOO BAD AS UPPER
FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY. SPLIT FLOW IS INDICATED BUT THE SOUTHERN JET
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. JUST DRY WITH TEMPS 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  25  50  38 /  10   0   0  20
CLARKSVILLE    43  25  49  40 /  10   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     37  20  42  35 /  30   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       48  27  52  39 /  10   0   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   50  28  52  39 /  10   0   0  10
WAVERLY        45  26  51  40 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270915
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW INDICATED OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF KY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE SOUTHWARD MOVING IMPULSE.
HOWEVER...BEST REGION OF PVA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE MID STATE...NORTHERN AREAS OF THE PLATEAU MAY
BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. THUS...WITH HRRR IN AGREEMENT WITH
TRENDING TOWARD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL...WILL OPT TO TREND
DOWNWARD THE SNOW THREAT. HALF INCH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU ONLY FOR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY A TRACE TO A
QUARTER INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAT. AREAS JUST WEST OF THE
PLATEAU COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEARING LINE NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST
TO OUR NORTH. COLD TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 20
PLATEAU...AND MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE MID STATE SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM UP CLOSE TO
50 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ON APPROACH AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WED NT INTO THURSDAY. THE
SFC LOW WILL PASS A GOOD DISTANCE TO THE NORTH OF TN. TEMPS WILL
THEREFORE REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.

IN THE EXT FCST...COLDER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. THEN...THE GULF STORM...THAT WE HAVE BEEN
LOOKING AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WILL BEGIN TO GET ITS ACT
TOGETHER. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...THE EURO MODEL WAS COLDER AND WAS
SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT WHILE THE GFS WAS A WARMER RAIN
SCENARIO. WELL...THE EURO HAS BACKED OFF AND IS NOW SHOWING MORE OF
A N-S TROUGH INVERSION AS OPPOSED TO THE COLDER W-E AXIS. THIS NOW
MATCHES UP WITH THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION. THUS...WILL TREND TOWARD
MORE OF A RAIN EVENT FOR SAT NT INTO SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...LOOKS
LIKE ABOUT 1/2 TO PERHAPS 3/4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE IS PULLING
OUT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

MON AND TUES OF NEXT WEEK LOOK COLD...BUT NOTHING TOO BAD AS UPPER
FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY. SPLIT FLOW IS INDICATED BUT THE SOUTHERN JET
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. JUST DRY WITH TEMPS 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  25  50  38 /  10   0   0  20
CLARKSVILLE    43  25  49  40 /  10   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     37  20  42  35 /  30   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       48  27  52  39 /  10   0   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   50  28  52  39 /  10   0   0  10
WAVERLY        45  26  51  40 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270551 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THRU 28/06Z...ESPECIALLY CSV. STILL EXPECTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO MID STATE AROUND 27/09Z WITH MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED. PRESENT VFR CEILINGS CKV/BNA TO BECOME MVFR WITH
MVFR CEILINGS CSV TO BECOME IFR/LIFR. BEST POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
CONTINUES TO BE AROUND CSV. SOME MODERATE ICING CONCERNS POSSIBLE CSV THRU
27/16Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL GREATEST. THROUGH PATTERN
RECOGNITION DURING WINTER MONTHS WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT SYSTEMS...AM HESITANT
TO ERODE CEILINGS AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AFTER 27/19Z AND
BELIEVE CEILING EROSION WILL TAKE PLACE MAYBE BY 28/03Z CKV AND WILL NOT
PROBABLY OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 28/06Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
INITIAL DISTURBANCE WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN VORTICITY FIELD AND
SOMEWHAT DARKER SHADING IN WATER VAPOR LOOP BEGINNING TO SLIDE
OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU. MOST OF THE REPORTS WE`VE HAD
MENTIONED A DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS AND ROOFTOPS WITH 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW EAST OF SMITHVILLE. MOST ROADS HAVE REMAINED WET THIS EVENING
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SLICK SPOTS REPORTED. AS TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING WE COULD SEE MORE SLICK AREAS DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS DISTURBANCE CAN ALSO BE SEEN PULLING OFF LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN
AT THIS TIME IN THE WATER VAPOR (DARKER SHADING) AND IN THE
VORTICITY FIELD OF THE RUC. THE 00Z NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
FEATURE AS IT DIVES DOWN THIS WAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. SO HAVE
RAISED THE POPS A LITTLE AND SNOW AMOUNTS BY A FEW TENTHS
NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270551 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THRU 28/06Z...ESPECIALLY CSV. STILL EXPECTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO MID STATE AROUND 27/09Z WITH MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED. PRESENT VFR CEILINGS CKV/BNA TO BECOME MVFR WITH
MVFR CEILINGS CSV TO BECOME IFR/LIFR. BEST POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
CONTINUES TO BE AROUND CSV. SOME MODERATE ICING CONCERNS POSSIBLE CSV THRU
27/16Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL GREATEST. THROUGH PATTERN
RECOGNITION DURING WINTER MONTHS WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT SYSTEMS...AM HESITANT
TO ERODE CEILINGS AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AFTER 27/19Z AND
BELIEVE CEILING EROSION WILL TAKE PLACE MAYBE BY 28/03Z CKV AND WILL NOT
PROBABLY OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 28/06Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
INITIAL DISTURBANCE WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN VORTICITY FIELD AND
SOMEWHAT DARKER SHADING IN WATER VAPOR LOOP BEGINNING TO SLIDE
OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU. MOST OF THE REPORTS WE`VE HAD
MENTIONED A DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS AND ROOFTOPS WITH 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW EAST OF SMITHVILLE. MOST ROADS HAVE REMAINED WET THIS EVENING
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SLICK SPOTS REPORTED. AS TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING WE COULD SEE MORE SLICK AREAS DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS DISTURBANCE CAN ALSO BE SEEN PULLING OFF LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN
AT THIS TIME IN THE WATER VAPOR (DARKER SHADING) AND IN THE
VORTICITY FIELD OF THE RUC. THE 00Z NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
FEATURE AS IT DIVES DOWN THIS WAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. SO HAVE
RAISED THE POPS A LITTLE AND SNOW AMOUNTS BY A FEW TENTHS
NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270241
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
INITIAL DISTURBANCE WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN VORTICITY FIELD AND
SOMEWHAT DARKER SHADING IN WATER VAPOR LOOP BEGINNING TO SLIDE
OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU. MOST OF THE REPORTS WE`VE HAD
MENTIONED A DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS AND ROOFTOPS WITH 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW EAST OF SMITHVILLE. MOST ROADS HAVE REMAINED WET THIS EVENING
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SLICK SPOTS REPORTED. AS TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING WE COULD SEE MORE SLICK AREAS DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS DISTURBANCE CAN ALSO BE SEEN PULLING OFF LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN
AT THIS TIME IN THE WATER VAPOR (DARKER SHADING) AND IN THE
VORTICITY FIELD OF THE RUC. THE 00Z NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
FEATURE AS IT DIVES DOWN THIS WAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. SO HAVE
RAISED THE POPS A LITTLE AND SNOW AMOUNTS BY A FEW TENTHS
NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.




&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270241
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
INITIAL DISTURBANCE WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN VORTICITY FIELD AND
SOMEWHAT DARKER SHADING IN WATER VAPOR LOOP BEGINNING TO SLIDE
OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU. MOST OF THE REPORTS WE`VE HAD
MENTIONED A DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS AND ROOFTOPS WITH 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW EAST OF SMITHVILLE. MOST ROADS HAVE REMAINED WET THIS EVENING
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SLICK SPOTS REPORTED. AS TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING WE COULD SEE MORE SLICK AREAS DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS DISTURBANCE CAN ALSO BE SEEN PULLING OFF LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN
AT THIS TIME IN THE WATER VAPOR (DARKER SHADING) AND IN THE
VORTICITY FIELD OF THE RUC. THE 00Z NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
FEATURE AS IT DIVES DOWN THIS WAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. SO HAVE
RAISED THE POPS A LITTLE AND SNOW AMOUNTS BY A FEW TENTHS
NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.




&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270031
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKER THAN I THOUGHT IT WOULD
SO EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEGIN TO TAPER FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT CONTINUE EASTERN AREAS AND
PLATEAU. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURANCE UPSTREAM AND IT APPEARS
THAT IT WILL AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE AND THE
PLATAU AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WE COULD ALSO HAVE FLURRIES AS FAR WEST
AS INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270031
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKER THAN I THOUGHT IT WOULD
SO EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEGIN TO TAPER FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT CONTINUE EASTERN AREAS AND
PLATEAU. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURANCE UPSTREAM AND IT APPEARS
THAT IT WILL AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE AND THE
PLATAU AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WE COULD ALSO HAVE FLURRIES AS FAR WEST
AS INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270001 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
601 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PROGRESSING
EWD THRU 27/24Z WILL RESULT IN SOME ISO/SCT SNOW SHWRS THRU AT LEAST 27/06Z
ACROSS ALL OF MID STATE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE WILL
RESULT IN ISO/SCT SNOW SHWRS CONTINUING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF MID STATE THRU
27/18Z. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ICING POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR CSV...BUT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE AT BEST...AS ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ON NON MOVING
SURFACES SHOULD BE AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS. WILL TRANSITION FROM
VFR CEILINGS CKV/BNA TO LOW END MVFR CEILINGS BY 27/09Z...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED CSV UNTIL AT LEAST 27/19Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE W
SFC/ALOFT AFTER 27/17Z W TO 27/19Z E SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL CEILING EROSIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WHILE WE THANKFULLY WON`T BE GETTING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THOSE IN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE GETTING...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MIDDLE TN.  THIS WILL BE
CAUSED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LARGER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-
STATE...INCLUDING THE METRO AREA...BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE PLATEAU AFTER 6 PM THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...BUT WE MAY VERY WELL
SQUEEZE OUT ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW BEFORE 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL NOT LIKELY CAUSE TOO MANY
ISSUES...BUT SOME LESS-TRAVELED ROADWAYS...ALONG WITH BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...MIGHT BECOME SLICK TONIGHT ON THE PLATEAU AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUT TONIGHT
AND DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

THURSDAY WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND WITH THE
BULK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...RAIN TOTALS WILL BE
VERY LIMITED.  LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE.  AS
WE HAVE SEEN WITH MANY OF THESE WINTER SYSTEMS...COLD AIR USUALLY
WRAPS IN BEHIND THEM AND GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF THE WHITE
STUFF.  FORTUNATELY WITH THIS ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN...AND IT
SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING.  IF THERE`S ANY
GOOD NEWS WITH THIS SYSTEM IT`S THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF IT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOLER AND AS WE ROLL INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WE START LOOKING UPSTREAM TO OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
GREATLY IN QUESTION...BUT THE FOCUS IS COMING A LITTLE CLEARER
THAT BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL START MOVING INTO
MIDDLE TN. THE QUESTION IS...WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION WILL WE BE
GETTING?

AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DEEP, COLD AIR TO WARRANT AT LEAST A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.  QUICKLY
THOUGH...IT SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO ALL
LIQUID SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND THEN AS IS THE NORM...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME COLD AIR THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN...BUT ATTM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT VERY
QUICKLY. WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY SYSTEM.  SOME TEENS MIGHT HAPPEN ON THE PLATEAU...BUT
WE`VE SEEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS SEASON.  FOR NOW...THE
COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK...AT THE EARLIEST.

UNGER

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY MVFR TODAY FOR KCKV AND KBNA WITH IFR/LIFR AT KCSV. CIGS
WERE HINTING AT GETTING INTO VFR FOR KCKV AND KBNA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THAT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FOR KBNA AND KCKV AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN INTO THE EVENING...AND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL IMPACT KCSV AFTER 00Z OR
SO AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
CIGS WILL BE IFR AT BEST WITH LIFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AFTER
03Z AT KCSV.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 262056
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE WE THANKFULLY WON`T BE GETTING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THOSE IN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE GETTING...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MIDDLE TN.  THIS WILL BE
CAUSED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LARGER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-
STATE...INCLUDING THE METRO AREA...BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE PLATEAU AFTER 6 PM THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...BUT WE MAY VERY WELL
SQUEEZE OUT ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW BEFORE 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL NOT LIKELY CAUSE TOO MANY
ISSUES...BUT SOME LESS-TRAVELED ROADWAYS...ALONG WITH BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...MIGHT BECOME SLICK TONIGHT ON THE PLATEAU AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUT TONIGHT
AND DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

THURSDAY WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND WITH THE
BULK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...RAIN TOTALS WILL BE
VERY LIMITED.  LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE.  AS
WE HAVE SEEN WITH MANY OF THESE WINTER SYSTEMS...COLD AIR USUALLY
WRAPS IN BEHIND THEM AND GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF THE WHITE
STUFF.  FORTUNATELY WITH THIS ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN...AND IT
SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING.  IF THERE`S ANY
GOOD NEWS WITH THIS SYSTEM IT`S THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF IT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOLER AND AS WE ROLL INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WE START LOOKING UPSTREAM TO OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
GREATLY IN QUESTION...BUT THE FOCUS IS COMING A LITTLE CLEARER
THAT BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL START MOVING INTO
MIDDLE TN. THE QUESTION IS...WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION WILL WE BE
GETTING?

AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DEEP, COLD AIR TO WARRANT AT LEAST A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.  QUICKLY
THOUGH...IT SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO ALL
LIQUID SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND THEN AS IS THE NORM...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME COLD AIR THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN...BUT ATTM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT VERY
QUICKLY. WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY SYSTEM.  SOME TEENS MIGHT HAPPEN ON THE PLATEAU...BUT
WE`VE SEEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS SEASON.  FOR NOW...THE
COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK...AT THE EARLIEST.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY MVFR TODAY FOR KCKV AND KBNA WITH IFR/LIFR AT KCSV. CIGS
WERE HINTING AT GETTING INTO VFR FOR KCKV AND KBNA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THAT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FOR KBNA AND KCKV AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN INTO THE EVENING...AND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL IMPACT KCSV AFTER 00Z OR
SO AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
CIGS WILL BE IFR AT BEST WITH LIFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AFTER
03Z AT KCSV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      32  43  27  48 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    31  41  26  47 /  20  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     27  36  21  44 /  50  30   0   0
COLUMBIA       31  43  26  49 /  10  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   32  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
WAVERLY        33  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261738
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY MVFR TODAY FOR KCKV AND KBNA WITH IFR/LIFR AT KCSV. CIGS
WERE HINTING AT GETTING INTO VFR FOR KCKV AND KBNA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THAT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FOR KBNA AND KCKV AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN INTO THE EVENING...AND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL IMPACT KCSV AFTER 00Z OR
SO AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
CIGS WILL BE IFR AT BEST WITH LIFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AFTER
03Z AT KCSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261738
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY MVFR TODAY FOR KCKV AND KBNA WITH IFR/LIFR AT KCSV. CIGS
WERE HINTING AT GETTING INTO VFR FOR KCKV AND KBNA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THAT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FOR KBNA AND KCKV AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN INTO THE EVENING...AND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL IMPACT KCSV AFTER 00Z OR
SO AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
CIGS WILL BE IFR AT BEST WITH LIFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AFTER
03Z AT KCSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261710
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1110 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING
BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S WITH SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW
CHANCES STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE PLATEAU TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SUBTLE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
UPPER TROUGH. HAVE UP TO A HALF INCH FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 12Z
TOMORROW. WINDS ARE CALMING DOWN A BIT...BUT ARE STILL GUSTY
AROUND THE PLATEAU WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRETTY
TIGHT...BUT CURRENT FORECAST WINDS ARE ON TRACK. OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261710
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1110 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING
BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S WITH SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW
CHANCES STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE PLATEAU TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SUBTLE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
UPPER TROUGH. HAVE UP TO A HALF INCH FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 12Z
TOMORROW. WINDS ARE CALMING DOWN A BIT...BUT ARE STILL GUSTY
AROUND THE PLATEAU WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRETTY
TIGHT...BUT CURRENT FORECAST WINDS ARE ON TRACK. OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities