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000
FXUS64 KOHX 280959
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
459 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT FOG AROUND THE MID-STATE WILL CLEAR BY 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RUNNING WELL INTO THE EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SINK DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF LATER TODAY...
AND A FEW VCNTY STORMS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CKV. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. LATE NIGHT LARGELY MVFR FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP CKV/CSV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER FL AND THE BAHAMAS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
TOWARD THE NW ACROSS TN. SUBSIDENCE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG TOWARD THE
SOUTH TODAY BUT A HIGHER DEGREE OF MOISTURE WILL HANG ON ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH HALF.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BUT
INITIALLY...DRIER AIR FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD. THUS...WE WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY PERIOD WITH
RATHER LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE`LL FINALLY SEE THE MOISTURE BEGIN TO
SURGE NORTHWARD WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS. ON SATURDAY...A SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MOISTURE
CHANNEL AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
WILL DEVIATE ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

IN THE EXT FCST...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL. THEN...WE WILL SEE THE UPPER HIGH EXPAND WESTWARD AND POPS
WILL THEREBY DROP TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE HERE AND THERE.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME WITH
850 MB THERMAL PARAMETERS ON THE UPSWING. SHOULD SEE MID 90S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280959
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
459 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT FOG AROUND THE MID-STATE WILL CLEAR BY 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RUNNING WELL INTO THE EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SINK DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF LATER TODAY...
AND A FEW VCNTY STORMS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CKV. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. LATE NIGHT LARGELY MVFR FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP CKV/CSV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER FL AND THE BAHAMAS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
TOWARD THE NW ACROSS TN. SUBSIDENCE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG TOWARD THE
SOUTH TODAY BUT A HIGHER DEGREE OF MOISTURE WILL HANG ON ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH HALF.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BUT
INITIALLY...DRIER AIR FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD. THUS...WE WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY PERIOD WITH
RATHER LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE`LL FINALLY SEE THE MOISTURE BEGIN TO
SURGE NORTHWARD WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS. ON SATURDAY...A SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MOISTURE
CHANNEL AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
WILL DEVIATE ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

IN THE EXT FCST...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL. THEN...WE WILL SEE THE UPPER HIGH EXPAND WESTWARD AND POPS
WILL THEREBY DROP TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE HERE AND THERE.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME WITH
850 MB THERMAL PARAMETERS ON THE UPSWING. SHOULD SEE MID 90S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280840
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER FL AND THE BAHAMAS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
TOWARD THE NW ACROSS TN. SUBSIDENCE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG TOWARD THE
SOUTH TODAY BUT A HIGHER DEGREE OF MOISTURE WILL HANG ON ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH HALF.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BUT
INITIALLY...DRIER AIR FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD. THUS...WE WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY PERIOD WITH
RATHER LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE`LL FINALLY SEE THE MOISTURE BEGIN TO
SURGE NORTHWARD WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS. ON SATURDAY...A SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MOISTURE
CHANNEL AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
WILL DEVIATE ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

IN THE EXT FCST...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL. THEN...WE WILL SEE THE UPPER HIGH EXPAND WESTWARD AND POPS
WILL THEREBY DROP TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE HERE AND THERE.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME WITH
850 MB THERMAL PARAMETERS ON THE UPSWING. SHOULD SEE MID 90S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  71  93  70 /  20  05  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    93  68  92  68 /  20  10  10  20
CROSSVILLE     88  64  88  66 /  20  05  10  10
COLUMBIA       94  69  94  70 /  10  05  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   94  65  94  70 /  10  05  10  20
WAVERLY        93  68  92  69 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280454
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT
THE OVERNIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY BE THE STORY. MORE IFR TO LIFR VIS
IS LIKELY AT KCKV AND KCSV STARTING AROUND 08-09Z AND LASTING
THROUGH 13Z BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL START TO BE SEEN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TN IN THE WAY OF TS. SHOULD BE SCATTERED
ENOUGH NOT TO PREVAIL ATTM...BUT HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR KCKV BY
21Z THURSDAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS WEATHER-FREE THIS HOUR AS A
WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH STAYS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLATEAU.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES THAT HAVE SETTLED IN. HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS ARE
RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO REALITY, SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 280454
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT
THE OVERNIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY BE THE STORY. MORE IFR TO LIFR VIS
IS LIKELY AT KCKV AND KCSV STARTING AROUND 08-09Z AND LASTING
THROUGH 13Z BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL START TO BE SEEN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TN IN THE WAY OF TS. SHOULD BE SCATTERED
ENOUGH NOT TO PREVAIL ATTM...BUT HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR KCKV BY
21Z THURSDAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS WEATHER-FREE THIS HOUR AS A
WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH STAYS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLATEAU.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES THAT HAVE SETTLED IN. HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS ARE
RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO REALITY, SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 280216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS WEATHER-FREE THIS HOUR AS A
WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH STAYS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLATEAU.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES THAT HAVE SETTLED IN. HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS ARE
RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO REALITY, SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN EVIDENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/IN AND NORTHERN
KY WILL DROOP FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BRING CONVECTION OVER ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE. FOR
NOW...WILL FOCUS ON THE IFR TO LIFR VIS REDUCTION TONIGHT AT KCKV
AND KCSV WHICH WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND UNTIL 13-14Z THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VRB THURSDAY WITH THE OVERALL FLOW
STARTING TO SWAP TO SSW BY THE END OF THIS CYCLE.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICAL AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN WITH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEW POINTS HAD
NOT DROPPED AS WE HAD HOPED. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MID TN WAS
ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. RADAR
SHOWED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE
OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW...BUT
WE WILL KEEP 20 POPS OVER THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
DIPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL APPROACH...RESULTING IN
A DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOIST AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE
OF IMPULSES WILL CROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND WILL BE A WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
RIGHT NOW...MODEL BLENDING SHOWS THE GREATEST RAIN POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WEEKEND WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON LABOR
DAY...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 280216
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS WEATHER-FREE THIS HOUR AS A
WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH STAYS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER PLATEAU.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES THAT HAVE SETTLED IN. HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS ARE
RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO REALITY, SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN EVIDENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/IN AND NORTHERN
KY WILL DROOP FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BRING CONVECTION OVER ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE. FOR
NOW...WILL FOCUS ON THE IFR TO LIFR VIS REDUCTION TONIGHT AT KCKV
AND KCSV WHICH WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND UNTIL 13-14Z THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VRB THURSDAY WITH THE OVERALL FLOW
STARTING TO SWAP TO SSW BY THE END OF THIS CYCLE.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICAL AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN WITH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEW POINTS HAD
NOT DROPPED AS WE HAD HOPED. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MID TN WAS
ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. RADAR
SHOWED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE
OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW...BUT
WE WILL KEEP 20 POPS OVER THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
DIPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL APPROACH...RESULTING IN
A DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOIST AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE
OF IMPULSES WILL CROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND WILL BE A WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
RIGHT NOW...MODEL BLENDING SHOWS THE GREATEST RAIN POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WEEKEND WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON LABOR
DAY...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 272327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN EVIDENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/IN AND NORTHERN
KY WILL DROOP FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BRING CONVECTION OVER ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE. FOR
NOW...WILL FOCUS ON THE IFR TO LIFR VIS REDUCTION TONIGHT AT KCKV
AND KCSV WHICH WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND UNTIL 13-14Z THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VRB THURSDAY WITH THE OVERALL FLOW
STARTING TO SWAP TO SSW BY THE END OF THIS CYCLE.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICAL AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN WITH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEW POINTS HAD
NOT DROPPED AS WE HAD HOPED. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MID TN WAS
ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. RADAR
SHOWED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE
OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW...BUT
WE WILL KEEP 20 POPS OVER THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
DIPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL APPROACH...RESULTING IN
A DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOIST AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE
OF IMPULSES WILL CROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND WILL BE A WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
RIGHT NOW...MODEL BLENDING SHOWS THE GREATEST RAIN POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WEEKEND WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON LABOR
DAY...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 272327
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN EVIDENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/IN AND NORTHERN
KY WILL DROOP FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BRING CONVECTION OVER ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE. FOR
NOW...WILL FOCUS ON THE IFR TO LIFR VIS REDUCTION TONIGHT AT KCKV
AND KCSV WHICH WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND UNTIL 13-14Z THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VRB THURSDAY WITH THE OVERALL FLOW
STARTING TO SWAP TO SSW BY THE END OF THIS CYCLE.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICAL AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN WITH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEW POINTS HAD
NOT DROPPED AS WE HAD HOPED. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MID TN WAS
ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. RADAR
SHOWED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE
OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW...BUT
WE WILL KEEP 20 POPS OVER THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
DIPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL APPROACH...RESULTING IN
A DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOIST AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE
OF IMPULSES WILL CROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND WILL BE A WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
RIGHT NOW...MODEL BLENDING SHOWS THE GREATEST RAIN POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WEEKEND WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON LABOR
DAY...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271927
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
227 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICAL AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN WITH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEW POINTS HAD
NOT DROPPED AS WE HAD HOPED. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MID TN WAS
ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. RADAR
SHOWED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE
OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW...BUT
WE WILL KEEP 20 POPS OVER THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
DIPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL APPROACH...RESULTING IN
A DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOIST AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE
OF IMPULSES WILL CROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND WILL BE A WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
RIGHT NOW...MODEL BLENDING SHOWS THE GREATEST RAIN POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WEEKEND WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON LABOR
DAY...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AND THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
RISING QUICKLY AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINT CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL MIX
OUT SOME OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  94  72  94 /  05  20  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    69  94  70  94 /  05  20  10  10
CROSSVILLE     65  87  68  87 /  05  20  05  10
COLUMBIA       67  94  68  94 /  05  10  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   68  94  68  93 /  05  10  05  10
WAVERLY        70  94  71  93 /  05  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271903
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
203 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

ISO -SHRA WILL DEVELOP NEAR CKV THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
FOG BRINGS MVFR/IFR VIS TO CKV/CSV AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AND THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
RISING QUICKLY AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINT CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL MIX
OUT SOME OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271903
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
203 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

ISO -SHRA WILL DEVELOP NEAR CKV THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
FOG BRINGS MVFR/IFR VIS TO CKV/CSV AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AND THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
RISING QUICKLY AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINT CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL MIX
OUT SOME OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271516
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AND THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
RISING QUICKLY AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINT CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL MIX
OUT SOME OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271516
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MID STATE
AND THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
RISING QUICKLY AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINT CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL MIX
OUT SOME OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...AND ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55








000
FXUS64 KOHX 271026
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271026
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 271026
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 271026
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORELESS A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
14-15Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR CSV/CKV 06-13Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  72  94  72 /  05  05  20  05
CLARKSVILLE    93  69  94  69 /  10  05  20  10
CROSSVILLE     86  65  89  67 /  05   0  20  05
COLUMBIA       92  70  94  70 /   0  05  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   92  66  94  67 /   0  05  10  05
WAVERLY        93  69  94  69 /  10  05  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 270845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  72  94  72 /  05  05  20  05
CLARKSVILLE    93  69  94  69 /  10  05  20  10
CROSSVILLE     86  65  89  67 /  05   0  20  05
COLUMBIA       92  70  94  70 /   0  05  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   92  66  94  67 /   0  05  10  05
WAVERLY        93  69  94  69 /  10  05  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KOHX 270449
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR AT ISSUANCE BUT THIS LIKELY WON`T HOLD UP AFTER 07Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. IFR TO LIFR
VIS AT KCSV AND KCKV WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08Z AND SHOULD CLEAR
BACK TO VFR BY 14Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MID-STATE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 270222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 270222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 262321
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27








000
FXUS64 KOHX 262321
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27









000
FXUS64 KOHX 261935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARN AS
EXPECTED TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  69  94 /  10  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10
CROSSVILLE     62  86  64  87 /  10  05   0  20
COLUMBIA       64  93  64  93 /  20   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  93  65  92 /  20   0  05  10
WAVERLY        66  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARN AS
EXPECTED TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  69  94 /  10  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10
CROSSVILLE     62  86  64  87 /  10  05   0  20
COLUMBIA       64  93  64  93 /  20   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   65  93  65  92 /  20   0  05  10
WAVERLY        66  93  67  94 /  20  10  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261756 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261756 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MID
STATE THRU 27/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
EXPECTED DURING DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS...GENERALLY 26/18Z-27/02Z
AND 27/15Z-27/18Z. SOME ISO SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE PER DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL AFFECTS ALSO...BUT EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO HARD
TO DETERMINE AND QUESTIONABLE IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AT OR AROUND
TAF SITES ANYWAY...WILL NOT MENTION. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PONDING EFFECTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...
MVFR CKV TO TEMPO IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV POSSIBLE 27/04Z-27/13Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261720 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261720 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OB TRENDS ALONG WITH CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
W OF PLATEAU THRU AFTERNOON HRS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS STILL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FOR
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL WX PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING NOW FROM THE LOWER 80S PLATEAU TO UPPER 80S TN
VALLEY REGION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261354 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 261354 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH SOME ISO LIGHT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...
HAVE UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION ISO SHWRS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 261225
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07








000
FXUS64 KOHX 261225
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
725 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR 14-15Z LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE EVENING CSV...THEN OVERNIGHT
CKV/BNA. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CSV...
AND POSSIBLY CKV AS WELL 06-12Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 260845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      91  71  93  72 /  10  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  93  69 /  10  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     84  62  86  65 /  10  10  05  05
COLUMBIA       92  69  93  70 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   91  65  93  67 /  20  05   0  05
WAVERLY        92  68  93  70 /  10  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KOHX 260845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED W-E FROM OK THROUGH IL. AT THE SFC...SFC
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO WORK IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTW...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BUT OTHER THAN A FEW EXTRA MORNING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY AFT SHOWER/TSTM SW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE
DAYS TO COME. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT THE ASSOCIATED AXIS WILL
EXTEND NW TOWARD TN. THEREBY...THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
LOOKS BASICALLY DRY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERMAL WITH THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A TOUCH.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY MULTI-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN.

THE EXT TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL AS UPPER
RIDGING...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOLDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      91  71  93  72 /  10  10  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  93  69 /  10  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     84  62  86  65 /  10  10  05  05
COLUMBIA       92  69  93  70 /  10  05   0  05
LAWRENCEBURG   91  65  93  67 /  20  05   0  05
WAVERLY        92  68  93  70 /  10  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDERWAY. EXPECT SOME FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIOD, BUT THEN VFR WX AFTER 12-13Z AND GENERALLY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 260455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDERWAY. EXPECT SOME FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIOD, BUT THEN VFR WX AFTER 12-13Z AND GENERALLY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 260117
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SO, WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 10% RANGE, BUT MENTION ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z.

SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOS
TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE TEMP/DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KOHX 260115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
815 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE MOS TRENDS ARE TOO QUICK. THEREFORE, HAVE UPDATED TEMP
AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO REFLECT OUR SLIGHTLY MODIFIED EXPECTATIONS.
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT SINCE
TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KOHX 252347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS HOUR, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. LOOK FOR DEW POINTS TO
BEGIN DROPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE






000
FXUS64 KOHX 252347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS HOUR, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. LOOK FOR DEW POINTS TO
BEGIN DROPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE





000
FXUS64 KOHX 251934
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    71  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  05
CROSSVILLE     65  83  62  85 /  10  10  10  05
COLUMBIA       69  89  66  92 /  10  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   69  88  65  91 /  10  20  05   0
WAVERLY        71  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251934
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON IN MID TN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUBBLING UP WITHIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER THE PLATEAU...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...SO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM BEING OPPRESSIVE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...BUT POPS WILL BE VERY LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE GREATEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A SSW FLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    71  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  05
CROSSVILLE     65  83  62  85 /  10  10  10  05
COLUMBIA       69  89  66  92 /  10  10  05   0
LAWRENCEBURG   69  88  65  91 /  10  20  05   0
WAVERLY        71  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KOHX 251752 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO
CLEAR BY 14Z. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE A FEW VCNTY STORMS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVE. FOG AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY CKV/CSV. OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE STEADFAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT DRY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL PLAINS.
BOTH EURO AND GFS ARE FINALLY IN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER AIR PATTERN LATTER PART OF WORK WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
EURO STILL WANTING TO KEEP MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GFS SHOWS MORE TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE PLATEAU. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S THIS WEEK INSTEAD OF THE 70S WHICH
WILL AT LEAST MAKE THE HEAT INDICES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE FROM
RECENT DAYS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251752 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1252 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WX PLAYER
ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU 26/18Z. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU 26/02Z. PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL CKV/CSV...
MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...BELIEVE ONLY SCT CU AND SCT/BKN CI WILL FORM
26/15Z-26/18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO
CLEAR BY 14Z. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE A FEW VCNTY STORMS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVE. FOG AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY CKV/CSV. OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE STEADFAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT DRY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL PLAINS.
BOTH EURO AND GFS ARE FINALLY IN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER AIR PATTERN LATTER PART OF WORK WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
EURO STILL WANTING TO KEEP MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GFS SHOWS MORE TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE PLATEAU. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S THIS WEEK INSTEAD OF THE 70S WHICH
WILL AT LEAST MAKE THE HEAT INDICES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE FROM
RECENT DAYS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31






000
FXUS64 KOHX 251208
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
708 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO
CLEAR BY 14Z. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE A FEW VCNTY STORMS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVE. FOG AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY CKV/CSV. OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE STEADFAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT DRY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL PLAINS.
BOTH EURO AND GFS ARE FINALLY IN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER AIR PATTERN LATTER PART OF WORK WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
EURO STILL WANTING TO KEEP MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GFS SHOWS MORE TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE PLATEAU. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S THIS WEEK INSTEAD OF THE 70S WHICH
WILL AT LEAST MAKE THE HEAT INDICES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE FROM
RECENT DAYS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KOHX 251208
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
708 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO
CLEAR BY 14Z. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE A FEW VCNTY STORMS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVE. FOG AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY CKV/CSV. OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE STEADFAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT DRY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL PLAINS.
BOTH EURO AND GFS ARE FINALLY IN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER AIR PATTERN LATTER PART OF WORK WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
EURO STILL WANTING TO KEEP MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GFS SHOWS MORE TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE PLATEAU. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S THIS WEEK INSTEAD OF THE 70S WHICH
WILL AT LEAST MAKE THE HEAT INDICES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE FROM
RECENT DAYS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07






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