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000
FXUS64 KOHX 082046
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
246 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MID STATE TONIGHT, AS LOW CENTER
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA TO OHIO. DEEP MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE AND UNDERSIDE OF THIS LOW CENTER, ACROSS MIDDLE TN, TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO TURN COLDER, WITH LOWS
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE MID STATE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW, ALLOWING TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER SIX OR SEVEN DEGREES.
HIGHS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH AND HIGHLAND RIM PROBABLY WON`T EVEN
MAKE IT TO 30 DEGREES.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY ENDING ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
PROBABLY PICK UP TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LATEST MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT AN INCH OF SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
EASTWARD INTO TROUSDALE AND MACON COUNTIES BETWEEN NOW AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE ADVISORY AS FAR WEST AS SUMNER COUNTY.

SNOW AMOUNTS AS LIGHT AS A HALF INCH COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
ICING ALONG UNTREATED ROADWAYS IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY
AREA. SO, EVEN FOLKS FURTHER WEST, AROUND CLARKSVILLE...
NASHVILLE...FRANKLIN AND MURFREESBORO SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
SLICK SPOTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG UNTREATED
SECONDARY ROADS AND ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

.LONG TERM...

WE STAY IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH ANOTHER COLD WAVE EXPECTED TO SWEEP IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE THEN DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE MID STATE WITH MOST
LOCATIONS NOW SHOWING A VFR OVERCAST AND A FEW ECHOES STARTING TO
SHOW UP ON RADAR. EXPECT INTERMITTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
TOWARD 00Z. CURRENT OBS SHOW MVFR CIGS STILL FAR UPSTREAM, SO WE
PROBABLY WON`T SEE CIGS DROP BELOW 3KFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT, WITH
LIGHT SNOW LASTING WELL INTO TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      24  31  18  29  19 /  70  60  20   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    21  28  15  26  16 /  60  60  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     20  25  14  22  12 /  80  60  30  20   0
COLUMBIA       25  31  17  30  17 /  50  60  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   25  31  17  32  18 /  50  60  10   0   0
WAVERLY        24  30  17  29  17 /  60  60  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-
CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-MACON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-SMITH-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 081716
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1116 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
CLOUDS FILLING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY FEW ECHOES ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR STILL, BUT WE ARE RECEIVING SCATTERED REPORTS
OF FLURRIES, SLEET, WINTRY MIX, ETC. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 40`S MOST AREAS, THE FREEZING LEVEL
IS NOT VERY HIGH, AND LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE DO
LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EVEN THOUGH WE WON`T
BEGIN ACCUMULATING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, THERE`S NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX WON`T CONTINUE, AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
MID STATE. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE MID STATE WITH MOST
LOCATIONS NOW SHOWING A VFR OVERCAST AND A FEW ECHOES STARTING TO
SHOW UP ON RADAR. EXPECT INTERMITTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
TOWARD 00Z. CURRENT OBS SHOW MVFR CIGS STILL FAR UPSTREAM, SO WE
PROBABLY WON`T SEE CIGS DROP BELOW 3KFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT, WITH
LIGHT SNOW LASTING WELL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-
CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 081644
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
CLOUDS FILLING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY FEW ECHOES ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR STILL, BUT WE ARE RECEIVING SCATTERED REPORTS
OF FLURRIES, SLEET, WINTRY MIX, ETC. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 40`S MOST AREAS, THE FREEZING LEVEL
IS NOT VERY HIGH, AND LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE DO
LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EVEN THOUGH WE WON`T
BEGIN ACCUMULATING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, THERE`S NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX WON`T CONTINUE, AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
MID STATE. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-
CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 081644
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
CLOUDS FILLING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY FEW ECHOES ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR STILL, BUT WE ARE RECEIVING SCATTERED REPORTS
OF FLURRIES, SLEET, WINTRY MIX, ETC. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 40`S MOST AREAS, THE FREEZING LEVEL
IS NOT VERY HIGH, AND LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE DO
LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EVEN THOUGH WE WON`T
BEGIN ACCUMULATING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, THERE`S NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX WON`T CONTINUE, AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
MID STATE. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-
CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 081644
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
CLOUDS FILLING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY FEW ECHOES ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR STILL, BUT WE ARE RECEIVING SCATTERED REPORTS
OF FLURRIES, SLEET, WINTRY MIX, ETC. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 40`S MOST AREAS, THE FREEZING LEVEL
IS NOT VERY HIGH, AND LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE DO
LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EVEN THOUGH WE WON`T
BEGIN ACCUMULATING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, THERE`S NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX WON`T CONTINUE, AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
MID STATE. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-
CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 081337
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
737 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS
TRENDS THRU NOON. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 081337
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
737 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS
TRENDS THRU NOON. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 081337
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
737 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS
TRENDS THRU NOON. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 081051
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
451 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE...A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WILL CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOWFALL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT SOME ACCUM
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND AROUND THE CSV AREA...MAINLY AFT 21Z.
LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PD BUT VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN AOA 3SM FOR THE MOST PART...EVEN AT CSV.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 081044
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
444 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...

(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)

OF WHAT WOULD SEEM TO BE A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS FIGURED IN AS 10Z COMES
AND GOES...AND WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE WX PATTERN TODAY...
JUST GOT A LOT MORE COMPLICATED. THUS...INTEGRATING SHORT TERM WX
TRENDS IN WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE SUITE OF 00Z
MODELS...WOULD CONSIDER THIS SHORT RANGE FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE
GREAT MODEL COMPROMISE FORECASTS OF RECENT NOTE. BELIEVE THAT THERE
WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY 12Z...WITH SKIES CLRING ACROSS ENTIRE
MID STATE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HRS. EXPECTING A RETURN TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS W TO E AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
MID STATE REGION AND DEEPEN. QUANDARIES ABOUND AS SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEPICTING A MUCH LATER TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
THEN ALL SNOW COMPARED TO THE STANDARD SUITE OF 00Z MODELS...AND
ALSO THROW IN A RANGE OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WHEN COMPARING MODEL
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PROFILES...ALONG WITH THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME GOOD CAPE VALUES TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED THUNDER SNOW
POTENTIALLY AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY...WHICH COULD
REALLY THROW A "WRENCH" INTO THE FORECAST PROCESS...BUT AN ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS THERE AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...
LET US THROW IN ACTUAL TIMING OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND BASE OF THIS DEEPENING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN INITIATING SNOW SHWR TIMING TOO.

THUS...WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...COMPROMISED HERE...FOCUSING IN ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY TO BE REACHED BY 15Z...WITH
INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHWRS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FROM THE
MID MORNING TO NOON TIME HR TODAY. THEN GOING WITH A SLOW TRANSITION
E TO W FROM A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON HRS.
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECTED AS NOT AS QUICK OF A CHANGE TO SNOW AS EARLY ANTICIPATED...
BUT WILL KEEP THE INITIAL HOUR OF 18Z CONTINUING FOR THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AS AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

LIKELY LIGHT SNOW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING
PER AN ENHANCED WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW SHWRS CONTINUING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS
EWD. ANTICIPATING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRANSVERSE
MID STATE ON TUE MORNING PROVIDING LIKELY LIGHT SNOW SHWRS...WITH
POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL DECREASING W TO E AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH BUILDING
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS WRN U.S...EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION WITH FLURRIES EXPECTED
DURING MORNING HRS ON WED HERE TOO. BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MID STATE AS WED INTO WED NIGHT PROGRESS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND PTCDLY SKIES.

AS FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU TUE NIGHT...
KEEPING IN MIND THAT THIS IS ON WHOLE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AND IT WILL
TAKE TIME TO REACH THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION VALUES...FROM AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER VALLEY...TO
AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH NASHVILLE METRO AREA/I-65 CORRIDOR...UP
TO ONE INCH JUST W OF PLATEAU. ACROSS ADVISORY AREA...ONE TO
TWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE INCHES
ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION...MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL REFRESH
BOTH WSW AND SPS PRODUCTS. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND ALSO...AND WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE INTO TUE NIGHT PLATEAU...WILL EXTENDED
WSW PRODUCT UNTIL 12Z TUE FOR THIS REGION.

SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE...BECAUSE...BEHIND A SFC FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...A COLD CANADIAN BASED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE MID STATE`S WX.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S...UPPER TEENS PLATEAU...SOME 10
DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE...SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...IN THE LOW 30S...MID TO UPPER 20S
NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND PLATEAU. LOWS TUE NIGHT WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLY
SPANNING THE LOW TO MID TEENS. HIGHS ON WED...AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY SPAN THE 20S...
20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD TREND...MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS...
LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM...

(THU-SUN)

A WINTERTIME NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS GOING TO BE IN PLACE FOR THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. THAT GENERALLY MEANS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWARD MOVING CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR MASS.

ON THURSDAY...VORTICITY FIELDS WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOK TIMID AT BEST. WE DO SEE...HOWEVER...A BIG
STRONG 1045 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SFC
HIGH APPEARS TO HAVE A 1 WAY TICKET TOWARD THE SOUTH LAND. LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH TN SOMETIME ON FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITHIN THE PRE FRONTAL
SECTOR. HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME UPPER LEVEL
CURVATURE AND SHEAR ENHANCEMENT IS NOTED UPSTREAM. SHOULD SEE A
DESCENT SLUG OF VORTICITY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH
EASTERN TN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY. WILL THEREFORE
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY EVENING...BUT FOR THE
PLATEAU ONLY. A GENERAL DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND AND COLDER CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...AS MENTIONED PRIOR...A DEFINITIVE COLD
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY...PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...THEN A LITTLE WARMER FOR
FRIDAY. APPARENTLY...THE NW FLOW CARRIES SOME REASONABLY LOW HEIGHT
VALUES AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO RECOVER FROM THE
PREVIOUS POLAR INTRUSION. BEHIND THE FROPA...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      43  22  31  16  28 /  60  70  60  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    41  21  29  16  26 /  50  70  60  10   0
CROSSVILLE     41  18  26  11  22 /  80  70  60  40  10
COLUMBIA       43  21  31  16  29 /  50  70  60  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  21  31  16  30 /  60  70  60  10   0
WAVERLY        41  21  30  16  28 /  50  70  60  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 081044
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
444 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...

(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)

OF WHAT WOULD SEEM TO BE A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS FIGURED IN AS 10Z COMES
AND GOES...AND WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE WX PATTERN TODAY...
JUST GOT A LOT MORE COMPLICATED. THUS...INTEGRATING SHORT TERM WX
TRENDS IN WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE SUITE OF 00Z
MODELS...WOULD CONSIDER THIS SHORT RANGE FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE
GREAT MODEL COMPROMISE FORECASTS OF RECENT NOTE. BELIEVE THAT THERE
WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY 12Z...WITH SKIES CLRING ACROSS ENTIRE
MID STATE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HRS. EXPECTING A RETURN TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS W TO E AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
MID STATE REGION AND DEEPEN. QUANDARIES ABOUND AS SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEPICTING A MUCH LATER TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
THEN ALL SNOW COMPARED TO THE STANDARD SUITE OF 00Z MODELS...AND
ALSO THROW IN A RANGE OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WHEN COMPARING MODEL
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PROFILES...ALONG WITH THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME GOOD CAPE VALUES TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED THUNDER SNOW
POTENTIALLY AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY...WHICH COULD
REALLY THROW A "WRENCH" INTO THE FORECAST PROCESS...BUT AN ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS THERE AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...
LET US THROW IN ACTUAL TIMING OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND BASE OF THIS DEEPENING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN INITIATING SNOW SHWR TIMING TOO.

THUS...WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...COMPROMISED HERE...FOCUSING IN ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY TO BE REACHED BY 15Z...WITH
INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHWRS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FROM THE
MID MORNING TO NOON TIME HR TODAY. THEN GOING WITH A SLOW TRANSITION
E TO W FROM A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON HRS.
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECTED AS NOT AS QUICK OF A CHANGE TO SNOW AS EARLY ANTICIPATED...
BUT WILL KEEP THE INITIAL HOUR OF 18Z CONTINUING FOR THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AS AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

LIKELY LIGHT SNOW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING
PER AN ENHANCED WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW SHWRS CONTINUING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS
EWD. ANTICIPATING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRANSVERSE
MID STATE ON TUE MORNING PROVIDING LIKELY LIGHT SNOW SHWRS...WITH
POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL DECREASING W TO E AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH BUILDING
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS WRN U.S...EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION WITH FLURRIES EXPECTED
DURING MORNING HRS ON WED HERE TOO. BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MID STATE AS WED INTO WED NIGHT PROGRESS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND PTCDLY SKIES.

AS FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU TUE NIGHT...
KEEPING IN MIND THAT THIS IS ON WHOLE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AND IT WILL
TAKE TIME TO REACH THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION VALUES...FROM AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER VALLEY...TO
AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH NASHVILLE METRO AREA/I-65 CORRIDOR...UP
TO ONE INCH JUST W OF PLATEAU. ACROSS ADVISORY AREA...ONE TO
TWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE INCHES
ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION...MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL REFRESH
BOTH WSW AND SPS PRODUCTS. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND ALSO...AND WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE INTO TUE NIGHT PLATEAU...WILL EXTENDED
WSW PRODUCT UNTIL 12Z TUE FOR THIS REGION.

SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE...BECAUSE...BEHIND A SFC FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...A COLD CANADIAN BASED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE MID STATE`S WX.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S...UPPER TEENS PLATEAU...SOME 10
DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE...SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...IN THE LOW 30S...MID TO UPPER 20S
NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND PLATEAU. LOWS TUE NIGHT WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLY
SPANNING THE LOW TO MID TEENS. HIGHS ON WED...AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY SPAN THE 20S...
20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD TREND...MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS...
LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM...

(THU-SUN)

A WINTERTIME NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS GOING TO BE IN PLACE FOR THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. THAT GENERALLY MEANS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWARD MOVING CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR MASS.

ON THURSDAY...VORTICITY FIELDS WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOK TIMID AT BEST. WE DO SEE...HOWEVER...A BIG
STRONG 1045 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SFC
HIGH APPEARS TO HAVE A 1 WAY TICKET TOWARD THE SOUTH LAND. LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH TN SOMETIME ON FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITHIN THE PRE FRONTAL
SECTOR. HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME UPPER LEVEL
CURVATURE AND SHEAR ENHANCEMENT IS NOTED UPSTREAM. SHOULD SEE A
DESCENT SLUG OF VORTICITY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH
EASTERN TN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY. WILL THEREFORE
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY EVENING...BUT FOR THE
PLATEAU ONLY. A GENERAL DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND AND COLDER CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...AS MENTIONED PRIOR...A DEFINITIVE COLD
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY...PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...THEN A LITTLE WARMER FOR
FRIDAY. APPARENTLY...THE NW FLOW CARRIES SOME REASONABLY LOW HEIGHT
VALUES AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO RECOVER FROM THE
PREVIOUS POLAR INTRUSION. BEHIND THE FROPA...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      43  22  31  16  28 /  60  70  60  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    41  21  29  16  26 /  50  70  60  10   0
CROSSVILLE     41  18  26  11  22 /  80  70  60  40  10
COLUMBIA       43  21  31  16  29 /  50  70  60  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  21  31  16  30 /  60  70  60  10   0
WAVERLY        41  21  30  16  28 /  50  70  60  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 080525
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AS CURRENT RADAR/SAT NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH JUST YET WITH
ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK ECHOES
MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. UPDATED TEMPS WINDS AND WX
TYPES FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL TO
MATCH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON TEMPS DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON WHEN TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW OCCURS...AND CURRENT THINKING IS ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AFTER 21Z TOMORROW WITH A MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

AVIATION........UNGER
SHORT TERM......06/BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 080525
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AS CURRENT RADAR/SAT NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH JUST YET WITH
ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK ECHOES
MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. UPDATED TEMPS WINDS AND WX
TYPES FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL TO
MATCH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON TEMPS DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON WHEN TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW OCCURS...AND CURRENT THINKING IS ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AFTER 21Z TOMORROW WITH A MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

AVIATION........UNGER
SHORT TERM......06/BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 080525
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AS CURRENT RADAR/SAT NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH JUST YET WITH
ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK ECHOES
MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. UPDATED TEMPS WINDS AND WX
TYPES FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL TO
MATCH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON TEMPS DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON WHEN TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW OCCURS...AND CURRENT THINKING IS ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AFTER 21Z TOMORROW WITH A MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

AVIATION........UNGER
SHORT TERM......06/BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 080343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AS CURRENT RADAR/SAT NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH JUST YET WITH
ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK ECHOES
MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. UPDATED TEMPS WINDS AND WX
TYPES FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL TO
MATCH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON TEMPS DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON WHEN TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW OCCURS...AND CURRENT THINKING IS ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AFTER 21Z TOMORROW WITH A MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 080343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AS CURRENT RADAR/SAT NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH JUST YET WITH
ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK ECHOES
MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. UPDATED TEMPS WINDS AND WX
TYPES FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL TO
MATCH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON TEMPS DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON WHEN TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW OCCURS...AND CURRENT THINKING IS ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AFTER 21Z TOMORROW WITH A MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 080343
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AS CURRENT RADAR/SAT NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH JUST YET WITH
ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK ECHOES
MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. UPDATED TEMPS WINDS AND WX
TYPES FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL TO
MATCH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON TEMPS DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON WHEN TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW OCCURS...AND CURRENT THINKING IS ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AFTER 21Z TOMORROW WITH A MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 072328
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU FROM NOON MONDAY UNTIL 6 PM CST
TUESDAY. MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE COMING QUICKLY TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS TODAY DROPS
DOWN AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT. INITIAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY THIS TIME ON
MONDAY AND IT GETS COLDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY
AND THIS IS THE ONE WITH BONE CHILLING AIR BEHIND IT. ANY PRECIP
TONIGHT WILL START OUT AS RAIN THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
HALF. SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE
OFF AND ON. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY AREA
BUT IT WON`T ALL COME AT ONE TIME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK AND THAT MEANS COLD TEMPS FOR
THE MID STATE. SO BUNDLE UP!

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 072328
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU FROM NOON MONDAY UNTIL 6 PM CST
TUESDAY. MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE COMING QUICKLY TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS TODAY DROPS
DOWN AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT. INITIAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY THIS TIME ON
MONDAY AND IT GETS COLDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY
AND THIS IS THE ONE WITH BONE CHILLING AIR BEHIND IT. ANY PRECIP
TONIGHT WILL START OUT AS RAIN THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
HALF. SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE
OFF AND ON. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY AREA
BUT IT WON`T ALL COME AT ONE TIME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK AND THAT MEANS COLD TEMPS FOR
THE MID STATE. SO BUNDLE UP!

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 072328
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU FROM NOON MONDAY UNTIL 6 PM CST
TUESDAY. MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE COMING QUICKLY TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS TODAY DROPS
DOWN AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT. INITIAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY THIS TIME ON
MONDAY AND IT GETS COLDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY
AND THIS IS THE ONE WITH BONE CHILLING AIR BEHIND IT. ANY PRECIP
TONIGHT WILL START OUT AS RAIN THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
HALF. SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE
OFF AND ON. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY AREA
BUT IT WON`T ALL COME AT ONE TIME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK AND THAT MEANS COLD TEMPS FOR
THE MID STATE. SO BUNDLE UP!

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL APPROACH MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
OCCURRING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT SO VIS SHOULD NOT FALL TO IFR...BUT CIGS COULD BE IFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP MONDAY MORNING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SW THEN WEST LATE MORNING. WESTERLY GUSTS OF
18-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 072049
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
249 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU FROM NOON MONDAY UNTIL 6 PM CST
TUESDAY. MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE COMING QUICKLY TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS TODAY DROPS
DOWN AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT. INITIAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY THIS TIME ON
MONDAY AND IT GETS COLDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY
AND THIS IS THE ONE WITH BONE CHILLING AIR BEHIND IT. ANY PRECIP
TONIGHT WILL START OUT AS RAIN THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
HALF. SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE
OFF AND ON. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY AREA
BUT IT WON`T ALL COME AT ONE TIME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK AND THAT MEANS COLD TEMPS FOR
THE MID STATE. SO BUNDLE UP!

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING LOWERING CIGS, ALONG
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 09Z, WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AT CSV. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OCCASIONAL
IFR VSBYS IN SN- COULD DEVELOP AT BNA AND CSV AFTER 14Z, AND INTO
THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. THEREFORE, PILOTS ARE
ADVISED TO REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
AT MIDDLE TN TERMINALS ON MONDAY, AS THIS WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
DEVELOPS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      37  40  24  31  18 /  50  60  40  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    35  37  22  29  16 /  50  50  50  20   0
CROSSVILLE     33  37  21  26  14 /  50  70  70  60  20
COLUMBIA       36  40  24  31  18 /  40  40  40  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   36  40  24  31  19 /  30  40  40  20  10
WAVERLY        35  38  23  30  18 /  40  50  50  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 071758
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

DAYTIME ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN ENDING UP A TAD WARMER AND DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS, INCLUDING NUDGING MAX TEMP EXPECTATIONS UP A DEG OR SO IN
SOME AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT NEWEST GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL PROBABLY
MAKE A FINAL DECISION SHORTLY BEFORE RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING LOWERING CIGS, ALONG
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 09Z, WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AT CSV. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OCCASIONAL
IFR VSBYS IN SN- COULD DEVELOP AT BNA AND CSV AFTER 14Z, AND INTO
THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. THEREFORE, PILOTS ARE
ADVISED TO REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
AT MIDDLE TN TERMINALS ON MONDAY, AS THIS WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
DEVELOPS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 071758
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

DAYTIME ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN ENDING UP A TAD WARMER AND DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS, INCLUDING NUDGING MAX TEMP EXPECTATIONS UP A DEG OR SO IN
SOME AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT NEWEST GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL PROBABLY
MAKE A FINAL DECISION SHORTLY BEFORE RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING LOWERING CIGS, ALONG
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 09Z, WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AT CSV. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OCCASIONAL
IFR VSBYS IN SN- COULD DEVELOP AT BNA AND CSV AFTER 14Z, AND INTO
THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. THEREFORE, PILOTS ARE
ADVISED TO REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
AT MIDDLE TN TERMINALS ON MONDAY, AS THIS WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
DEVELOPS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 071723
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

DAYTIME ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN ENDING UP A TAD WARMER AND DRIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS, INCLUDING NUDGING MAX TEMP EXPECTATIONS UP A DEG OR SO IN
SOME AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT NEWEST GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL PROBABLY
MAKE A FINAL DECISION SHORTLY BEFORE RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV. BY 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      55  34  37  24  31 /   0  50  60  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    55  33  34  22  30 /  10  50  50  30  20
CROSSVILLE     51  35  35  21  26 /   0  50  70  50  40
COLUMBIA       54  34  38  24  32 /   0  40  40  30  20
LAWRENCEBURG   54  34  39  24  31 /   0  30  40  30  20
WAVERLY        56  33  36  22  30 /  10  40  50  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 071113
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY PREVAIL FROM 07/12Z-07/18Z...FOR TAF
BREVITY/CLARITY...MENTIONED BKN CI 07/12Z THRU AT LEAST 08/01Z.
OTHERWISE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS/DEVELOPS ACROSS MID STATE...
AC OVC CEILINGS WILL FORM 08/01Z W TO 08/04Z E. AS WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS MID STATE...LIGHT SHWRS WILL DEVELOP UNDER STRATUS
VFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 2.5KFT 08/09Z-
08/12Z. VFR VSBYS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SHWRS BEING PROMINENT
08/06Z-08/12Z. SFC SW WINDS WILL BECOME WLY AFTER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE
08/06Z-08/12Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV. BY 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 071113
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY PREVAIL FROM 07/12Z-07/18Z...FOR TAF
BREVITY/CLARITY...MENTIONED BKN CI 07/12Z THRU AT LEAST 08/01Z.
OTHERWISE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS/DEVELOPS ACROSS MID STATE...
AC OVC CEILINGS WILL FORM 08/01Z W TO 08/04Z E. AS WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS MID STATE...LIGHT SHWRS WILL DEVELOP UNDER STRATUS
VFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 2.5KFT 08/09Z-
08/12Z. VFR VSBYS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SHWRS BEING PROMINENT
08/06Z-08/12Z. SFC SW WINDS WILL BECOME WLY AFTER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE
08/06Z-08/12Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV. BY 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 070942
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
342 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

(TODAY THRU TUES)

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM STARTS TO MOVE OUR WAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL START TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD. NUMEROUS
IMPULSES...WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL RIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE WELL
BEHIND THE FROPA. AS THE VERTICAL THERMAL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEGINS
TO GET COLDER AT ALL LEVELS...WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE MORE FAVORABLY TIME FOR A RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION WILL BE MONDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING SHARPLY BY 18Z MON. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE TEMP
PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 800 FT
AGL BY 18Z ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF MIDDLE TN.

RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND WILL OCCUR
MON AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH SO AS TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD ADVISORY. WILL THEREFORE
COVER THE MATTER WITH AN SPS. OTW...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MID
STATE...LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER ONLY SEEING A DUSTING.

ON TUESDAY...A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A
FEW RESIDUAL FLURRIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG OUR PLATEAU.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...TODAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE MOST
COMFORTABLE DAY AS OUR HIGHS REACH INTO THE 50S. THEN...FOLLOWING
THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY
MORNING AND WILL NOT WARM MUCH AT ALL DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED
RATHER COLD FOR MON NT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S AND
HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

(WED THRU SAT)

OTHER THAN A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MIGHT BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TO MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE FRI
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI
NIGHT...WITH NO INDICATIONS OF ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AT THIS
POINT...IN A NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME...MID STATE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY WED THRU SAT. THIS THE RESULT...OTHER THAN THE
EXCEPTION FOR FRI NIGHT...OF A DRY NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
WEAK SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES N TO S ACROSS MID STATE USHERING IN
REINFORCING DRY COLD CANADIAN BASED AIR MASSES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE MOST PRONOUNCED INFLUX OF A CANADIAN AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED INTO THE REGION ON WED...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE
MID 30S W TO MID 20S E. HOWEVER...EVEN AS ABOVE MENTIONED REINFORCING
DRY CANADIAN COLD AIR MASSES MOVE INTO THE REGION...SOME MODIFICATIONS
WILL OCCUR TO THEIR COLD AIR MASS NATURES AS THEY MOVE S INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...BUT WITH SOME MODIFICATION
TO HIGHS FROM WED AFTERNOON EXPECTED. HIGHS ON THU THRU SAT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...MID TO UPPER 30S PLATEAU
REGION. AS FOR LOWS...THEY WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON WED MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS...WARMING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...BY SAT MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV. BY 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      55  34  37  24  31 /   0  50  60  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    54  33  34  22  30 /  10  50  50  30  20
CROSSVILLE     51  35  35  21  26 /   0  50  70  50  40
COLUMBIA       54  34  38  24  32 /   0  40  40  30  20
LAWRENCEBURG   54  34  39  24  31 /   0  30  40  30  20
WAVERLY        54  33  36  22  30 /  10  40  50  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................31





000
FXUS64 KOHX 070523
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV. BY 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION........UNGER
SHORT TERM......06/BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 070523
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV. BY 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION........UNGER
SHORT TERM......06/BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 070304
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
904 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 070304
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
904 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 070304
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
904 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 062325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 062325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 062325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 062045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
245 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  55  36  39  25 /   0   0  50  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    31  56  33  37  22 /   0  10  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     29  50  34  36  21 /   0   0  50  60  50
COLUMBIA       29  54  34  39  24 /   0   0  40  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   29  54  34  40  25 /   0   0  30  40  30
WAVERLY        31  55  33  37  23 /   0  10  40  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD




000
FXUS64 KOHX 062045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
245 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  55  36  39  25 /   0   0  50  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    31  56  33  37  22 /   0  10  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     29  50  34  36  21 /   0   0  50  60  50
COLUMBIA       29  54  34  39  24 /   0   0  40  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   29  54  34  40  25 /   0   0  30  40  30
WAVERLY        31  55  33  37  23 /   0  10  40  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 062045
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
245 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH IT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BRING CLOUDINESS BACK INTO
THE MID STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY EVENING AS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST GETS CLOSER WITH
RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN WITH 850 MBAR
TEMPS DOWN IN THE -10 DEGREE RANGE AND EVEN COLDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT I`VE
SEEN IT SNOW WHEN SURFACE TEMP WAS 43 DEGREES HERE IN NASHVILLE
IF THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IT CAN HAPPEN. SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR POURING
IN WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING WEST OF PLATEAU ON TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG PLATEAU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND IN NORTHEAST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WARM UP IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  55  36  39  25 /   0   0  50  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    31  56  33  37  22 /   0  10  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     29  50  34  36  21 /   0   0  50  60  50
COLUMBIA       29  54  34  39  24 /   0   0  40  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   29  54  34  40  25 /   0   0  30  40  30
WAVERLY        31  55  33  37  23 /   0  10  40  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 061739
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NICE LITTLE WARM UP TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING, WITH SFC TEMPS
RUNNING A DEG OR SO ABOVE PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. WILL KEEP THAT
TREND IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, AND NUDGE MAX TEMPS UP A
BIT. OTHERWISE, THINGS LOOK PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK, WITH A
SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON STILL IN THE WORKS, AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. DESPITE PATCHY MID TO HI LEVEL CLOUDS,
STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

ALTHOUGH CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE QUITE MINOR, WILL GO
AHEAD AND GENERATE A NEW SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 061618
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1018 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NICE LITTLE WARM UP TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING, WITH SFC TEMPS
RUNNING A DEG OR SO ABOVE PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. WILL KEEP THAT
TREND IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, AND NUDGE MAX TEMPS UP A
BIT. OTHERWISE, THINGS LOOK PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK, WITH A
SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON STILL IN THE WORKS, AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. DESPITE PATCHY MID TO HI LEVEL CLOUDS,
STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.

ALTHOUGH CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE QUITE MINOR, WILL GO
AHEAD AND GENERATE A NEW SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      52  31  54  34  38 /  10   0   0  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    52  30  56  33  37 /  10   0  10  50  50
CROSSVILLE     48  29  51  32  34 /  10   0   0  50  50
COLUMBIA       51  30  54  34  39 /  10   0   0  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   51  29  53  35  39 /  10   0   0  30  40
WAVERLY        52  30  55  34  37 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD





000
FXUS64 KOHX 061125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................XXI





000
FXUS64 KOHX 061125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................XXI




000
FXUS64 KOHX 061125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................XXI





000
FXUS64 KOHX 060910
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  31  54  34  38 /  10   0   0  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    51  30  56  33  37 /  10   0  10  50  50
CROSSVILLE     47  29  51  32  34 /  10   0   0  50  50
COLUMBIA       50  30  54  34  39 /  10   0   0  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   50  29  53  35  39 /  10   0   0  30  40
WAVERLY        51  30  55  34  37 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 060910
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  31  54  34  38 /  10   0   0  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    51  30  56  33  37 /  10   0  10  50  50
CROSSVILLE     47  29  51  32  34 /  10   0   0  50  50
COLUMBIA       50  30  54  34  39 /  10   0   0  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   50  29  53  35  39 /  10   0   0  30  40
WAVERLY        51  30  55  34  37 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................13





000
FXUS64 KOHX 060910
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  31  54  34  38 /  10   0   0  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    51  30  56  33  37 /  10   0  10  50  50
CROSSVILLE     47  29  51  32  34 /  10   0   0  50  50
COLUMBIA       50  30  54  34  39 /  10   0   0  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   50  29  53  35  39 /  10   0   0  30  40
WAVERLY        51  30  55  34  37 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................13




000
FXUS64 KOHX 060521
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AS
CURRENT OBS SHOW THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION AND LOOK TO WORK THEIR
WAY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 060457
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AS
CURRENT OBS SHOW THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION AND LOOK TO WORK THEIR
WAY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 060457
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AS
CURRENT OBS SHOW THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION AND LOOK TO WORK THEIR
WAY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 060457
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AS
CURRENT OBS SHOW THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION AND LOOK TO WORK THEIR
WAY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 052347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE-DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN TIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE
BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO MIDDLE TN. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FIRST SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
WET BULB COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER AND A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT FROM THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. SREF PLUMES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH A MEAN ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AT CSV, BNA, AND CKV. AT THIS POINT THE PLATEAU MAY PICK UP
AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF TWO INCHES AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THE LARGE TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... MIDDLE
TN WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD. GFS AND EURO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................UNGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 052347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE-DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN TIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE
BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO MIDDLE TN. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FIRST SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
WET BULB COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER AND A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT FROM THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. SREF PLUMES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH A MEAN ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AT CSV, BNA, AND CKV. AT THIS POINT THE PLATEAU MAY PICK UP
AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF TWO INCHES AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THE LARGE TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... MIDDLE
TN WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD. GFS AND EURO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................UNGER





000
FXUS64 KOHX 052347
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE-DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
WEST TO EAST IN TIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE
BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO MIDDLE TN. 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FIRST SHOT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN BUT SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DROP DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPORTUNITY OF SOME
WET BULB COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER AND A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT FROM THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. SREF PLUMES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH A MEAN ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT
MONDAY AT CSV, BNA, AND CKV. AT THIS POINT THE PLATEAU MAY PICK UP
AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF TWO INCHES AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THE LARGE TROUGH AND PRECIP MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT... MIDDLE
TN WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD. GFS AND EURO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........06/BARNWELL
LONG TERM..................UNGER




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