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000
FXUS64 KOHX 040439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FLIGHT RULES TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CIGS AND
VIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND MORE SATURATED. SOME SHOWERS ARE
AROUND MAINLY SOUTH OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. IT IS POSSIBLE BNA AND
CSV SEE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BUT LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE BACK SOME ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS OVER THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE SW/WSW AOB 5 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KOHX 040439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FLIGHT RULES TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CIGS AND
VIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND MORE SATURATED. SOME SHOWERS ARE
AROUND MAINLY SOUTH OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. IT IS POSSIBLE BNA AND
CSV SEE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BUT LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE BACK SOME ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS OVER THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE SW/WSW AOB 5 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 040126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THRIDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 040126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THRIDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 040126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THRIDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 032335
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE RAIN FREE ATTM. SOME ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD CKV BUT IS WEAKENING. ADDRESSED THIS WITH A
SHRA TEMPO GROUP AT CKV AND VCSH AT BNA. WINDS MAY CALM A LITTLE
MORE THAN LAST NIGHT AND WITH SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT ALL THREE SITES. IFR CEILING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. CSV LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
WENT WITH VCTS RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS FOR TOMORROW. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHTER OUT OF THE SW
AROUND 5 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KOHX 032335
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE RAIN FREE ATTM. SOME ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD CKV BUT IS WEAKENING. ADDRESSED THIS WITH A
SHRA TEMPO GROUP AT CKV AND VCSH AT BNA. WINDS MAY CALM A LITTLE
MORE THAN LAST NIGHT AND WITH SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT ALL THREE SITES. IFR CEILING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. CSV LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
WENT WITH VCTS RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS FOR TOMORROW. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHTER OUT OF THE SW
AROUND 5 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031951
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM...POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AND PEAKING DURING THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN TODAY SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE PUT DOWN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN A SMALL
TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

AS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY EVENING FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE JUST A BIT PLACING PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA.
CURRENTLY...PRECIP SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I40. SHORT
TERM MODELS DO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON QPF PLACEMENT...BUT THE NAM
WANTS TO PLACE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH MORE OF
A CONSENSUS SINCE IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE SCATTERED
OVER THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT. HOPEFULLY MODELS TREND
BACK A BIT AND HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
FESTIVITIES. CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME ARE ROUGHLY
25 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES UP TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES ATTM. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP PUSH THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS A BIT
LOWER TO SCHC/CHC ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER HIGH
PLAINS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS. COMBINED WITH MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACTIVITY...POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS IS LAGGING BEHIND THE ECMWF PLACING A TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT FURTHER WEST IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UNCERTAINTY
HAS DROPPED POPS JUST A BIT FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      84  68  81  67 /  70  60  50  40
CLARKSVILLE    82  67  82  66 /  60  50  30  30
CROSSVILLE     77  65  75  63 /  70  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       82  67  80  66 /  80  80  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  66 /  80  80  60  50
WAVERLY        81  67  80  67 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031951
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM...POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AND PEAKING DURING THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN TODAY SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE PUT DOWN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN A SMALL
TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

AS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY EVENING FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE JUST A BIT PLACING PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA.
CURRENTLY...PRECIP SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I40. SHORT
TERM MODELS DO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON QPF PLACEMENT...BUT THE NAM
WANTS TO PLACE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH MORE OF
A CONSENSUS SINCE IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE SCATTERED
OVER THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT. HOPEFULLY MODELS TREND
BACK A BIT AND HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
FESTIVITIES. CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME ARE ROUGHLY
25 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES UP TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES ATTM. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP PUSH THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS A BIT
LOWER TO SCHC/CHC ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER HIGH
PLAINS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS. COMBINED WITH MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACTIVITY...POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS IS LAGGING BEHIND THE ECMWF PLACING A TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT FURTHER WEST IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UNCERTAINTY
HAS DROPPED POPS JUST A BIT FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      84  68  81  67 /  70  60  50  40
CLARKSVILLE    82  67  82  66 /  60  50  30  30
CROSSVILLE     77  65  75  63 /  70  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       82  67  80  66 /  80  80  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  66 /  80  80  60  50
WAVERLY        81  67  80  67 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031446
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.


OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031446
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.


OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031446
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.


OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 031226
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  70  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  70  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  70  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  70  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  70  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  70  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  70  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  70  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  70  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  70  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  70  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  70  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 030752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND PLATEAU AS MORE RAIN...SOME HEAVY...IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ON WESTERN SIDE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. TROPOSPHERE SOUTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUICED UP WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS
INTERACTION WILL KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGHER QPF`S WILL BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES AND A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST. LASTEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FEEDING FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO MY CWA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S...WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL AT CROSSVILLE FOR JULY 2ND TOTALED
4.81 INCHES WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUS RECORD
WAS 1.58 INCHES IN 1992.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  70  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  70  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  70  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  70  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 030501
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 15K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE
ON RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY
AND ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  80  67 /  90  70  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    83  68  79  66 /  50  40  60  40
CROSSVILLE     77  66  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       84  71  80  68 /  90  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   81  72  79  68 /  90  80  60  60
WAVERLY        83  69  79  68 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030501
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 15K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE
ON RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY
AND ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  80  67 /  90  70  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    83  68  79  66 /  50  40  60  40
CROSSVILLE     77  66  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       84  71  80  68 /  90  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   81  72  79  68 /  90  80  60  60
WAVERLY        83  69  79  68 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 030501
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 15K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE
ON RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY
AND ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  80  67 /  90  70  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    83  68  79  66 /  50  40  60  40
CROSSVILLE     77  66  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       84  71  80  68 /  90  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   81  72  79  68 /  90  80  60  60
WAVERLY        83  69  79  68 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030501
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 15K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE
ON RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY
AND ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  80  67 /  90  70  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    83  68  79  66 /  50  40  60  40
CROSSVILLE     77  66  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       84  71  80  68 /  90  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   81  72  79  68 /  90  80  60  60
WAVERLY        83  69  79  68 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 030314
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1014 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...HEAVY RAINS OVER RECENT DAYS OVER EASTER AND CENTRAL
MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-24. A NUMBER OF
SPOTS OVER THE EAST SAW RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THAT WAS ON TOP OF THE RAINS THAT FELL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, A CLUSTER OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
RAINS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND
RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF CLAY, JACKSON
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT AND NEARBY WFO`S LOOK AT RAINFALL
EXPECTATIONS TO DECIDE IF FFA NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST.

STORMS SURVEYS ARE PLANNED FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WILSON
COUNTY AREA WERE SEVERAL TORNADOES MAY HAVE OCCURRED.

WE REMAIN UNDER THE SAME UNSTABLE, MOIST WEATHER REGIME THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY, WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MORE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE MID STATE.

ASIDE FROM THE ISSUANCE OF THE FFA, NO OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 030314
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1014 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...HEAVY RAINS OVER RECENT DAYS OVER EASTER AND CENTRAL
MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-24. A NUMBER OF
SPOTS OVER THE EAST SAW RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THAT WAS ON TOP OF THE RAINS THAT FELL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, A CLUSTER OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
RAINS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND
RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF CLAY, JACKSON
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT AND NEARBY WFO`S LOOK AT RAINFALL
EXPECTATIONS TO DECIDE IF FFA NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST.

STORMS SURVEYS ARE PLANNED FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WILSON
COUNTY AREA WERE SEVERAL TORNADOES MAY HAVE OCCURRED.

WE REMAIN UNDER THE SAME UNSTABLE, MOIST WEATHER REGIME THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY, WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MORE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE MID STATE.

ASIDE FROM THE ISSUANCE OF THE FFA, NO OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 022359
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF PERIOD LEADING TO VARYING
FLIGHT RULES. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS. HRRR HAS CONVECTION WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEAT.
WILL SEE IF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CAN HOLD CONVECTION TOGETHER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT IN CIGS OVER THE TAF PERIOD BUT AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES RETURN AROUND 18Z.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AGAIN TOMORROW AROUND THE 5-10 KT
RANGE.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 022359
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF PERIOD LEADING TO VARYING
FLIGHT RULES. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS. HRRR HAS CONVECTION WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEAT.
WILL SEE IF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CAN HOLD CONVECTION TOGETHER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT IN CIGS OVER THE TAF PERIOD BUT AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES RETURN AROUND 18Z.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AGAIN TOMORROW AROUND THE 5-10 KT
RANGE.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KOHX 022014
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A WET MORNING...THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING...WE ARE IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT IS STARTING TO REAR ITS HEAD AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  IT TOOK SOME CLEARING SKIES OVER AREAS OF NW TN AND
WESTERN KY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BEFORE THIS CONVECTION REALLY STARTED TO TAKE OFF...BUT THE PROBLEM
IS...THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT
FRIENDLY TO EXTENSIVE GROWTH.  FIRST...ALL OF THE RAIN FROM LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS HAD SOMEWHAT OF A STABILIZING EFFECT.  ON
TOP OF THAT...WIND SHEAR IS GREATLY LACKING.  20-25 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR JUST ISN`T ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT GROWTH.  SO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WHILE A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG...THE BIGGEST THING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS
PROLONGED RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT SAW ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT.  FLOODING COULD BECOME A BIG CONCERN IF EVEN 1 OR 2
INCHES FALL IN THOSE SAME PLACES...MACON COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN PARTICULAR.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-STATE THROUGH
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.  AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND OVER A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT.  UNFORTUNATELY NO ONE PERIOD IS
STICKING OUT IN THE FORECAST AS BETTER THAN THE NEXT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THIS HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POP FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.  CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY SATURDAY
MORNING...SO THERE IS HOPE THAT IF THIS CAN OCCUR...IT WILL STYMIE ACTIVITY
IN THE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SUMMERTIME GENERALITIES
STILL PERTAIN TO STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL NEGATE MOST OF THE HAIL THREAT...BUT BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND WATER-LOADED UPDRAFTS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS.

AS WE ENTER NEXT WEEK...A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE IN STORE.
UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT GET OUT OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN.  WHILE THIS DOESN`T MEAN WE
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S AGAIN LIKE WE DID A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO...IT
DOES MEAN WE SHOULD REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES VALUES
AND A MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
FLIGHT CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER TAF SITES. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING...SO TRENDED MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE. NEXT UPDATE MAY BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN A BIT MORE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DOWNWARD TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27




000
FXUS64 KOHX 022014
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A WET MORNING...THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING...WE ARE IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT IS STARTING TO REAR ITS HEAD AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  IT TOOK SOME CLEARING SKIES OVER AREAS OF NW TN AND
WESTERN KY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BEFORE THIS CONVECTION REALLY STARTED TO TAKE OFF...BUT THE PROBLEM
IS...THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT
FRIENDLY TO EXTENSIVE GROWTH.  FIRST...ALL OF THE RAIN FROM LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS HAD SOMEWHAT OF A STABILIZING EFFECT.  ON
TOP OF THAT...WIND SHEAR IS GREATLY LACKING.  20-25 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR JUST ISN`T ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT GROWTH.  SO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WHILE A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG...THE BIGGEST THING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS
PROLONGED RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT SAW ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT.  FLOODING COULD BECOME A BIG CONCERN IF EVEN 1 OR 2
INCHES FALL IN THOSE SAME PLACES...MACON COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN PARTICULAR.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-STATE THROUGH
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.  AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND OVER A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT.  UNFORTUNATELY NO ONE PERIOD IS
STICKING OUT IN THE FORECAST AS BETTER THAN THE NEXT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THIS HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POP FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.  CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY SATURDAY
MORNING...SO THERE IS HOPE THAT IF THIS CAN OCCUR...IT WILL STYMIE ACTIVITY
IN THE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SUMMERTIME GENERALITIES
STILL PERTAIN TO STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL NEGATE MOST OF THE HAIL THREAT...BUT BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND WATER-LOADED UPDRAFTS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS.

AS WE ENTER NEXT WEEK...A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE IN STORE.
UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT GET OUT OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN.  WHILE THIS DOESN`T MEAN WE
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S AGAIN LIKE WE DID A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO...IT
DOES MEAN WE SHOULD REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES VALUES
AND A MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
FLIGHT CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER TAF SITES. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING...SO TRENDED MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE. NEXT UPDATE MAY BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN A BIT MORE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DOWNWARD TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27




000
FXUS64 KOHX 022014
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A WET MORNING...THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING...WE ARE IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN THAT IS STARTING TO REAR ITS HEAD AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  IT TOOK SOME CLEARING SKIES OVER AREAS OF NW TN AND
WESTERN KY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BEFORE THIS CONVECTION REALLY STARTED TO TAKE OFF...BUT THE PROBLEM
IS...THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT
FRIENDLY TO EXTENSIVE GROWTH.  FIRST...ALL OF THE RAIN FROM LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS HAD SOMEWHAT OF A STABILIZING EFFECT.  ON
TOP OF THAT...WIND SHEAR IS GREATLY LACKING.  20-25 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR JUST ISN`T ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT GROWTH.  SO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WHILE A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG...THE BIGGEST THING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS
PROLONGED RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT SAW ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT.  FLOODING COULD BECOME A BIG CONCERN IF EVEN 1 OR 2
INCHES FALL IN THOSE SAME PLACES...MACON COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN PARTICULAR.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-STATE THROUGH
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.  AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND OVER A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT.  UNFORTUNATELY NO ONE PERIOD IS
STICKING OUT IN THE FORECAST AS BETTER THAN THE NEXT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THIS HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POP FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.  CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY SATURDAY
MORNING...SO THERE IS HOPE THAT IF THIS CAN OCCUR...IT WILL STYMIE ACTIVITY
IN THE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SUMMERTIME GENERALITIES
STILL PERTAIN TO STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL NEGATE MOST OF THE HAIL THREAT...BUT BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND WATER-LOADED UPDRAFTS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS.

AS WE ENTER NEXT WEEK...A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE IN STORE.
UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT GET OUT OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN.  WHILE THIS DOESN`T MEAN WE
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S AGAIN LIKE WE DID A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO...IT
DOES MEAN WE SHOULD REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES VALUES
AND A MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
FLIGHT CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER TAF SITES. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING...SO TRENDED MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE. NEXT UPDATE MAY BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN A BIT MORE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DOWNWARD TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 021740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
FLIGHT CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER TAF SITES. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING...SO TRENDED MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE. NEXT UPDATE MAY BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN A BIT MORE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DOWNWARD TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...PUSHED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO PUSHING BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON THAT MAY HELP KICK OFF STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT WILL
NEED SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT WE MAY
GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE TODAY...BUT MODELS ARE
QUICK TO FILL IT IN THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN FOR MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH AND
EAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT AIRPORTS FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  82  67  80 /  70  60  50  60
CLARKSVILLE    67  81  67  80 /  40  60  40  60
CROSSVILLE     65  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  70
COLUMBIA       71  83  69  80 /  80  60  60  70
LAWRENCEBURG   71  81  68  79 /  80  60  60  70
WAVERLY        68  81  70  80 /  40  70  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 021548
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...PUSHED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO PUSHING BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON THAT MAY HELP KICK OFF STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT WILL
NEED SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT WE MAY
GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE TODAY...BUT MODELS ARE
QUICK TO FILL IT IN THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN FOR MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH AND
EAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT AIRPORTS FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KOHX 021548
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...PUSHED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO PUSHING BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON THAT MAY HELP KICK OFF STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT WILL
NEED SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT WE MAY
GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE TODAY...BUT MODELS ARE
QUICK TO FILL IT IN THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN FOR MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH AND
EAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT AIRPORTS FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KOHX 021211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT AIRPORTS FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
ITS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TIME. WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY ADDRESSING
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONGOING STORMS MAKING FOR A BUSY MID WATCH. AT 07Z THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A REPRIEVE OVER WESTERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING
WITH ONE AREA NOW WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA LOOKS HAVE A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH WFO PADUCAHS AREA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 2.5 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD BUT AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD USE A LITTLE RAIN AS CLARKSVILLE ENDING
JUNE NEARLY TWO AND HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. SO
THOSE FOLKS ARE GLAD TO BE GETTING THE RAIN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
MAJOR HEAT WAVES IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE NEXT WEEK UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BUT
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE WESTERLIES RIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

CLIMATE...CALENDAR RAINFALL RECORD JULY 2ND IN NASHVILLE IS 2.02
INCHES IN 1913.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  67 / 100  80  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    81  67  81  67 / 100  80  60  40
CROSSVILLE     76  65  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       82  71  83  69 / 100  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  71  81  68 / 100  80  60  60
WAVERLY        80  68  81  70 / 100  80  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55




000
FXUS64 KOHX 021211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT AIRPORTS FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
ITS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TIME. WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY ADDRESSING
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONGOING STORMS MAKING FOR A BUSY MID WATCH. AT 07Z THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A REPRIEVE OVER WESTERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING
WITH ONE AREA NOW WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA LOOKS HAVE A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH WFO PADUCAHS AREA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 2.5 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD BUT AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD USE A LITTLE RAIN AS CLARKSVILLE ENDING
JUNE NEARLY TWO AND HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. SO
THOSE FOLKS ARE GLAD TO BE GETTING THE RAIN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
MAJOR HEAT WAVES IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE NEXT WEEK UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BUT
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE WESTERLIES RIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

CLIMATE...CALENDAR RAINFALL RECORD JULY 2ND IN NASHVILLE IS 2.02
INCHES IN 1913.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  67 / 100  80  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    81  67  81  67 / 100  80  60  40
CROSSVILLE     76  65  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       82  71  83  69 / 100  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  71  81  68 / 100  80  60  60
WAVERLY        80  68  81  70 / 100  80  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55




000
FXUS64 KOHX 021211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT AIRPORTS FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
ITS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TIME. WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY ADDRESSING
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONGOING STORMS MAKING FOR A BUSY MID WATCH. AT 07Z THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A REPRIEVE OVER WESTERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING
WITH ONE AREA NOW WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA LOOKS HAVE A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH WFO PADUCAHS AREA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 2.5 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD BUT AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD USE A LITTLE RAIN AS CLARKSVILLE ENDING
JUNE NEARLY TWO AND HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. SO
THOSE FOLKS ARE GLAD TO BE GETTING THE RAIN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
MAJOR HEAT WAVES IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE NEXT WEEK UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BUT
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE WESTERLIES RIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

CLIMATE...CALENDAR RAINFALL RECORD JULY 2ND IN NASHVILLE IS 2.02
INCHES IN 1913.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  67 / 100  80  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    81  67  81  67 / 100  80  60  40
CROSSVILLE     76  65  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       82  71  83  69 / 100  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  71  81  68 / 100  80  60  60
WAVERLY        80  68  81  70 / 100  80  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 021211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AT AIRPORTS FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
ITS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TIME. WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY ADDRESSING
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONGOING STORMS MAKING FOR A BUSY MID WATCH. AT 07Z THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A REPRIEVE OVER WESTERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING
WITH ONE AREA NOW WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA LOOKS HAVE A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH WFO PADUCAHS AREA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 2.5 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD BUT AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD USE A LITTLE RAIN AS CLARKSVILLE ENDING
JUNE NEARLY TWO AND HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. SO
THOSE FOLKS ARE GLAD TO BE GETTING THE RAIN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
MAJOR HEAT WAVES IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE NEXT WEEK UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BUT
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE WESTERLIES RIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

CLIMATE...CALENDAR RAINFALL RECORD JULY 2ND IN NASHVILLE IS 2.02
INCHES IN 1913.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  67 / 100  80  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    81  67  81  67 / 100  80  60  40
CROSSVILLE     76  65  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       82  71  83  69 / 100  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  71  81  68 / 100  80  60  60
WAVERLY        80  68  81  70 / 100  80  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55





000
FXUS64 KOHX 020720
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
220 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
ITS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TIME. WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY ADDRESSING
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONGOING STORMS MAKING FOR A BUSY MID WATCH. AT 07Z THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A REPRIEVE OVER WESTERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING
WITH ONE AREA NOW WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA LOOKS HAVE A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH WFO PADUCAHS AREA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 2.5 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD BUT AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD USE A LITTLE RAIN AS CLARKSVILLE ENDING
JUNE NEARLY TWO AND HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. SO
THOSE FOLKS ARE GLAD TO BE GETTING THE RAIN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
MAJOR HEAT WAVES IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE NEXT WEEK UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BUT
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE WESTERLIES RIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR RAINFALL RECORD JULY 2ND IN NASHVILLE IS 2.02
INCHES IN 1913.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  67 / 100  80  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    81  67  81  67 / 100  80  60  40
CROSSVILLE     76  65  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       82  71  83  69 / 100  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  71  81  68 / 100  80  60  60
WAVERLY        80  68  81  70 / 100  80  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 020720
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
220 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
ITS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TIME. WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY ADDRESSING
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONGOING STORMS MAKING FOR A BUSY MID WATCH. AT 07Z THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A REPRIEVE OVER WESTERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING
WITH ONE AREA NOW WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA LOOKS HAVE A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH WFO PADUCAHS AREA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 2.5 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD BUT AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD USE A LITTLE RAIN AS CLARKSVILLE ENDING
JUNE NEARLY TWO AND HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. SO
THOSE FOLKS ARE GLAD TO BE GETTING THE RAIN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
MAJOR HEAT WAVES IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE NEXT WEEK UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BUT
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE WESTERLIES RIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR RAINFALL RECORD JULY 2ND IN NASHVILLE IS 2.02
INCHES IN 1913.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  67 / 100  80  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    81  67  81  67 / 100  80  60  40
CROSSVILLE     76  65  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       82  71  83  69 / 100  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  71  81  68 / 100  80  60  60
WAVERLY        80  68  81  70 / 100  80  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 020720
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
220 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
ITS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TIME. WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY ADDRESSING
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONGOING STORMS MAKING FOR A BUSY MID WATCH. AT 07Z THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A REPRIEVE OVER WESTERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING
WITH ONE AREA NOW WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA LOOKS HAVE A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH WFO PADUCAHS AREA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 2.5 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD BUT AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD USE A LITTLE RAIN AS CLARKSVILLE ENDING
JUNE NEARLY TWO AND HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. SO
THOSE FOLKS ARE GLAD TO BE GETTING THE RAIN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
MAJOR HEAT WAVES IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE NEXT WEEK UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BUT
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE WESTERLIES RIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR RAINFALL RECORD JULY 2ND IN NASHVILLE IS 2.02
INCHES IN 1913.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  67 / 100  80  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    81  67  81  67 / 100  80  60  40
CROSSVILLE     76  65  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       82  71  83  69 / 100  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  71  81  68 / 100  80  60  60
WAVERLY        80  68  81  70 / 100  80  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 020720
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
220 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
ITS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER TIME. WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY ADDRESSING
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONGOING STORMS MAKING FOR A BUSY MID WATCH. AT 07Z THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 24 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A REPRIEVE OVER WESTERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING
WITH ONE AREA NOW WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA LOOKS HAVE A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH WFO PADUCAHS AREA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 2.5 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD BUT AREAS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD USE A LITTLE RAIN AS CLARKSVILLE ENDING
JUNE NEARLY TWO AND HALF INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. SO
THOSE FOLKS ARE GLAD TO BE GETTING THE RAIN.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN INSITU NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST JUST OUR NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
BACK INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
MAJOR HEAT WAVES IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE NEXT WEEK UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BUT
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE WESTERLIES RIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...CALENDAR RAINFALL RECORD JULY 2ND IN NASHVILLE IS 2.02
INCHES IN 1913.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  67 / 100  80  60  50
CLARKSVILLE    81  67  81  67 / 100  80  60  40
CROSSVILLE     76  65  76  66 / 100  80  70  60
COLUMBIA       82  71  83  69 / 100  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  71  81  68 / 100  80  60  60
WAVERLY        80  68  81  70 / 100  80  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 020429
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, LIKELY BECOMING NUMEROUS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z AS SEVERAL MESO COMPLEXES SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 25K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
A DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE ON
RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY AND
ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      82  70  80  69 /  90  80  80  60
CLARKSVILLE    80  69  80  69 /  90  90  80  50
CROSSVILLE     78  67  75  66 / 100  70  80  60
COLUMBIA       82  69  80  70 /  90  80  80  60
LAWRENCEBURG   82  69  81  69 / 100  80  80  60
WAVERLY        81  69  79  69 /  90  90  80  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 020429
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, LIKELY BECOMING NUMEROUS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z AS SEVERAL MESO COMPLEXES SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 25K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
A DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE ON
RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY AND
ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      82  70  80  69 /  90  80  80  60
CLARKSVILLE    80  69  80  69 /  90  90  80  50
CROSSVILLE     78  67  75  66 / 100  70  80  60
COLUMBIA       82  69  80  70 /  90  80  80  60
LAWRENCEBURG   82  69  81  69 / 100  80  80  60
WAVERLY        81  69  79  69 /  90  90  80  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 020429
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, LIKELY BECOMING NUMEROUS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z AS SEVERAL MESO COMPLEXES SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 25K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
A DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE ON
RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY AND
ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      82  70  80  69 /  90  80  80  60
CLARKSVILLE    80  69  80  69 /  90  90  80  50
CROSSVILLE     78  67  75  66 / 100  70  80  60
COLUMBIA       82  69  80  70 /  90  80  80  60
LAWRENCEBURG   82  69  81  69 / 100  80  80  60
WAVERLY        81  69  79  69 /  90  90  80  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 020429
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, LIKELY BECOMING NUMEROUS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z AS SEVERAL MESO COMPLEXES SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TSTMS AND CIGS BTWN 25K AND 30K FT. EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WHEN TSTMS ARE LEAST NUMEROUS, BUT IT`S HARD TO
PREDICT THOSE PERIODS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS WILL BE
A DAY WHEN PILOTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN ESPECIALLY CLOSE EYE ON
RADAR TRENDS WHEN MAKING FLIGHT PLANS, AND STAY ABREAST OF ANY AND
ALL TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      82  70  80  69 /  90  80  80  60
CLARKSVILLE    80  69  80  69 /  90  90  80  50
CROSSVILLE     78  67  75  66 / 100  70  80  60
COLUMBIA       82  69  80  70 /  90  80  80  60
LAWRENCEBURG   82  69  81  69 / 100  80  80  60
WAVERLY        81  69  79  69 /  90  90  80  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 012345
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF STORMS MOVE IN. STORMS CURRENTLY IN
MO WILL CONGEAL AND MOVE SE OVERNIGHT BEGINNING TO AFFECT CKV
CLOSE TO 06Z. COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND CLEAR CSV
BY MID MORNING. MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TIMING AND EXTENT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME DUE MODEL DISCREPANCY IN
RECOVERY AFTER MORNING MCS. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW
AROUND THE 10 KT RANGE.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  69  82 /  80  80  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    69  80  69  81 /  90  80  50  60
CROSSVILLE     67  75  66  76 /  70  80  60  70
COLUMBIA       69  80  70  81 /  80  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   69  81  69  81 /  80  80  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  69  81 /  90  80  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 012345
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF STORMS MOVE IN. STORMS CURRENTLY IN
MO WILL CONGEAL AND MOVE SE OVERNIGHT BEGINNING TO AFFECT CKV
CLOSE TO 06Z. COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND CLEAR CSV
BY MID MORNING. MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TIMING AND EXTENT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME DUE MODEL DISCREPANCY IN
RECOVERY AFTER MORNING MCS. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW
AROUND THE 10 KT RANGE.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  69  82 /  80  80  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    69  80  69  81 /  90  80  50  60
CROSSVILLE     67  75  66  76 /  70  80  60  70
COLUMBIA       69  80  70  81 /  80  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   69  81  69  81 /  80  80  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  69  81 /  90  80  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KOHX 012345
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF STORMS MOVE IN. STORMS CURRENTLY IN
MO WILL CONGEAL AND MOVE SE OVERNIGHT BEGINNING TO AFFECT CKV
CLOSE TO 06Z. COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND CLEAR CSV
BY MID MORNING. MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TIMING AND EXTENT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME DUE MODEL DISCREPANCY IN
RECOVERY AFTER MORNING MCS. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW
AROUND THE 10 KT RANGE.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  69  82 /  80  80  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    69  80  69  81 /  90  80  50  60
CROSSVILLE     67  75  66  76 /  70  80  60  70
COLUMBIA       69  80  70  81 /  80  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   69  81  69  81 /  80  80  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  69  81 /  90  80  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KOHX 012301
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
601 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...THE CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COOLED THINGS OFF
PRETTY GOOD OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND BY 5 PM MOST AREAS
HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (PRETTY CLOSE TO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS). UNLESS TEMPS RECOVER A BIT WITH THE
FLEETING RAYS OF EVENING SUN, DOUBT WE`LL SEE MUCH TEMP FLUX FROM
NOW UNTIL SUNRISE THURSDAY.

AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED BEHIND OUR MESO-COMPLEX, WITH VERY LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED TO OUR NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT. BELIEVE
THERE IS STILL A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ANOTHER MESO-COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHWESTERN KY LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INTO MUCH OF OUR FA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE A REDUCTION IN AREA POPS IS PROBABLY WARRANTED THROUGH
06Z. THEREFORE, WILL JUST GO WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, WITH A NARROW STRIP OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EXTREME
WEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  69  82 /  80  80  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    69  80  69  81 /  90  80  50  60
CROSSVILLE     67  75  66  76 /  70  80  60  70
COLUMBIA       69  80  70  81 /  80  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   69  81  69  81 /  80  80  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  69  81 /  90  80  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KOHX 012301
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
601 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...THE CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COOLED THINGS OFF
PRETTY GOOD OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND BY 5 PM MOST AREAS
HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (PRETTY CLOSE TO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS). UNLESS TEMPS RECOVER A BIT WITH THE
FLEETING RAYS OF EVENING SUN, DOUBT WE`LL SEE MUCH TEMP FLUX FROM
NOW UNTIL SUNRISE THURSDAY.

AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED BEHIND OUR MESO-COMPLEX, WITH VERY LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED TO OUR NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT. BELIEVE
THERE IS STILL A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ANOTHER MESO-COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHWESTERN KY LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INTO MUCH OF OUR FA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE A REDUCTION IN AREA POPS IS PROBABLY WARRANTED THROUGH
06Z. THEREFORE, WILL JUST GO WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, WITH A NARROW STRIP OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EXTREME
WEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  69  82 /  80  80  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    69  80  69  81 /  90  80  50  60
CROSSVILLE     67  75  66  76 /  70  80  60  70
COLUMBIA       69  80  70  81 /  80  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   69  81  69  81 /  80  80  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  69  81 /  90  80  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KOHX 012020
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
320 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG VORT CENTER MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF PVA IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND THE STRONGER
STORMS HAVE NOW EXITED OUR AREA. FOR THAT REASON...THE EARLIER SVR
TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

MOVING ON...TONIGHT...A SMALLER SCALE SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
AND ALLOW A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...OVERALL...WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER DOWN DISTURBANCE AFTER DISTURBANCE ON
THROUGH FRI NT. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. 1 TO 2 INCH AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL BECOME MORE
SEGMENTED. WE WILL STILL SEE DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE SHEAR COMPONENT WILL BE LESS. RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL
STILL BE IN THE FCST BUT POPS WILL DROP SOME.

THOUGH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH THU NT ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THUS...NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE INCLUDED.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

IN THE EXT FCST...A SPLIT FLOW WILL STILL BE IN TACT WITH THE
SOUTHERLY BRANCH PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE BUT NOT LOOKING AT
ANY WELL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
TX. THIS WILL ACT TO TERMINATE THE TROUGH SEGMENTATION WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER FLOW AND PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUR WAY.

ALL IN ALL...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. THE 7 DAY PRECIP TOTALS
SHOULD AVG AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. SO BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...AREA RIVERS COULD SEE A SLOW RISE WITH TIME.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WE`LL SEE HIGH TEMPS GO FROM BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  69  82 /  80  80  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    69  80  69  81 /  90  80  50  60
CROSSVILLE     67  75  66  76 /  70  80  60  70
COLUMBIA       70  80  70  81 /  80  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   70  81  69  81 /  80  80  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  69  81 /  90  80  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KOHX 012020
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
320 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG VORT CENTER MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF PVA IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND THE STRONGER
STORMS HAVE NOW EXITED OUR AREA. FOR THAT REASON...THE EARLIER SVR
TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

MOVING ON...TONIGHT...A SMALLER SCALE SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
AND ALLOW A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...OVERALL...WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER DOWN DISTURBANCE AFTER DISTURBANCE ON
THROUGH FRI NT. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. 1 TO 2 INCH AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL BECOME MORE
SEGMENTED. WE WILL STILL SEE DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE SHEAR COMPONENT WILL BE LESS. RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL
STILL BE IN THE FCST BUT POPS WILL DROP SOME.

THOUGH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH THU NT ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THUS...NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE INCLUDED.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

IN THE EXT FCST...A SPLIT FLOW WILL STILL BE IN TACT WITH THE
SOUTHERLY BRANCH PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE BUT NOT LOOKING AT
ANY WELL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
TX. THIS WILL ACT TO TERMINATE THE TROUGH SEGMENTATION WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER FLOW AND PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUR WAY.

ALL IN ALL...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. THE 7 DAY PRECIP TOTALS
SHOULD AVG AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. SO BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...AREA RIVERS COULD SEE A SLOW RISE WITH TIME.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WE`LL SEE HIGH TEMPS GO FROM BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  69  82 /  80  80  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    69  80  69  81 /  90  80  50  60
CROSSVILLE     67  75  66  76 /  70  80  60  70
COLUMBIA       70  80  70  81 /  80  80  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   70  81  69  81 /  80  80  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  69  81 /  90  80  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011720
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONGOING LINE OF TS MOVING THROUGH MID-TN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH A COUPLE OF WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING BUT
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON TERMINALS. LIGHT RA WILL LINGER
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A SEVERAL HOUR LULL. CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO COME DOWN...BUT SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT AS MORE TS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE MID-STATE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

,DISCUSSION...

WITH AN MCS BEARING DOWN ON THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING AND THE
FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP ITS CONTINUATION...
HAVE BUMPED POPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ACCORDINGLY. AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN...EXPECTATION IS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE VALUES AND THE MCS
CREATING ITS OWN SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE MEANS THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL AND PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

I ALSO ADDED A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON`T BE
COMPLETELY BLANKETED WITH RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE
COULD GET A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME BEFORE
ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE MID-STATE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011720
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONGOING LINE OF TS MOVING THROUGH MID-TN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH A COUPLE OF WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING BUT
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON TERMINALS. LIGHT RA WILL LINGER
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A SEVERAL HOUR LULL. CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO COME DOWN...BUT SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT AS MORE TS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE MID-STATE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

,DISCUSSION...

WITH AN MCS BEARING DOWN ON THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING AND THE
FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP ITS CONTINUATION...
HAVE BUMPED POPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ACCORDINGLY. AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN...EXPECTATION IS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE VALUES AND THE MCS
CREATING ITS OWN SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE MEANS THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL AND PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

I ALSO ADDED A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON`T BE
COMPLETELY BLANKETED WITH RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE
COULD GET A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME BEFORE
ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE MID-STATE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011720
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONGOING LINE OF TS MOVING THROUGH MID-TN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH A COUPLE OF WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING BUT
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON TERMINALS. LIGHT RA WILL LINGER
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A SEVERAL HOUR LULL. CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO COME DOWN...BUT SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT AS MORE TS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE MID-STATE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

,DISCUSSION...

WITH AN MCS BEARING DOWN ON THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING AND THE
FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP ITS CONTINUATION...
HAVE BUMPED POPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ACCORDINGLY. AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN...EXPECTATION IS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE VALUES AND THE MCS
CREATING ITS OWN SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE MEANS THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL AND PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

I ALSO ADDED A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON`T BE
COMPLETELY BLANKETED WITH RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE
COULD GET A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME BEFORE
ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE MID-STATE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011435
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

,DISCUSSION...

WITH AN MCS BEARING DOWN ON THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING AND THE
FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP ITS CONTINUATION...
HAVE BUMPED POPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ACCORDINGLY. AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN...EXPECTATION IS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE VALUES AND THE MCS
CREATING ITS OWN SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE MEANS THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL AND PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

I ALSO ADDED A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON`T BE
COMPLETELY BLANKETED WITH RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE
COULD GET A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME BEFORE
ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE MID-STATE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MID STATE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRANSIENT
WITHIN THE FLOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME
OF DAY OR NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011435
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

,DISCUSSION...

WITH AN MCS BEARING DOWN ON THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING AND THE
FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP ITS CONTINUATION...
HAVE BUMPED POPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ACCORDINGLY. AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN...EXPECTATION IS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE VALUES AND THE MCS
CREATING ITS OWN SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE MEANS THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL AND PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

I ALSO ADDED A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON`T BE
COMPLETELY BLANKETED WITH RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE
COULD GET A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME BEFORE
ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE MID-STATE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MID STATE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRANSIENT
WITHIN THE FLOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME
OF DAY OR NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011435
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

,DISCUSSION...

WITH AN MCS BEARING DOWN ON THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING AND THE
FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP ITS CONTINUATION...
HAVE BUMPED POPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ACCORDINGLY. AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN...EXPECTATION IS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE VALUES AND THE MCS
CREATING ITS OWN SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE MEANS THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL AND PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

I ALSO ADDED A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON`T BE
COMPLETELY BLANKETED WITH RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE
COULD GET A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME BEFORE
ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE MID-STATE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MID STATE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRANSIENT
WITHIN THE FLOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME
OF DAY OR NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
MID STATE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRANSIENT WITHIN
THE FLOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME OF DAY
OR NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&


.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 011213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
MID STATE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRANSIENT WITHIN
THE FLOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME OF DAY
OR NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&


.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
MID STATE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRANSIENT WITHIN
THE FLOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME OF DAY
OR NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&


.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01





000
FXUS64 KOHX 011213
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
MID STATE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRANSIENT WITHIN
THE FLOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME OF DAY
OR NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&


.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
01




000
FXUS64 KOHX 010846
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
346 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ON AND NEAR THE PLATEAU. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE MCS ACROSS MISSOURI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PER MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 30-40 KTS ALONG WITH CAPE
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE MID STATE IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR TODAY.

SECONDARY BUT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER MCS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
MISSOURI THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE PER 00Z MODELS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
ACCORDINGLY. LLJ INCREASING TO 30 KTS WILL PUMP PWATS UP TO NEAR
2 INCHES...AND WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
GRIDS/ZONES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LIKELY POPS. THIS FAIRLY LENGTHY
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND WPC
HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH
DAYS. WITH NO APPARENT SHARP BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION IN
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL OVER A DAY
AWAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
LATEST GUIDANCE AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PER SPC DAY 2 AND 3 OUTLOOKS.

A WET ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS WARRANTED EACH DAY. TROUGH WEAKENS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSING INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER...BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER TROUGHING BECOMING REESTABLISHED BY LATE
NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING A RETURN TO WET AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  81  69 /  70  70  80  60
CLARKSVILLE    82  69  79  69 /  70  80  80  50
CROSSVILLE     78  65  76  65 /  70  70  80  60
COLUMBIA       83  69  81  69 /  70  70  80  60
LAWRENCEBURG   83  69  81  69 /  70  70  80  60
WAVERLY        82  70  80  69 /  70  70  80  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHAMBURGER




000
FXUS64 KOHX 010846
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
346 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ON AND NEAR THE PLATEAU. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE MCS ACROSS MISSOURI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PER MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 30-40 KTS ALONG WITH CAPE
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE MID STATE IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR TODAY.

SECONDARY BUT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER MCS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
MISSOURI THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE PER 00Z MODELS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
ACCORDINGLY. LLJ INCREASING TO 30 KTS WILL PUMP PWATS UP TO NEAR
2 INCHES...AND WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
GRIDS/ZONES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LIKELY POPS. THIS FAIRLY LENGTHY
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND WPC
HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH
DAYS. WITH NO APPARENT SHARP BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION IN
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL OVER A DAY
AWAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
LATEST GUIDANCE AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PER SPC DAY 2 AND 3 OUTLOOKS.

A WET ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS WARRANTED EACH DAY. TROUGH WEAKENS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSING INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER...BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER TROUGHING BECOMING REESTABLISHED BY LATE
NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING A RETURN TO WET AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  70  81  69 /  70  70  80  60
CLARKSVILLE    82  69  79  69 /  70  80  80  50
CROSSVILLE     78  65  76  65 /  70  70  80  60
COLUMBIA       83  69  81  69 /  70  70  80  60
LAWRENCEBURG   83  69  81  69 /  70  70  80  60
WAVERLY        82  70  80  69 /  70  70  80  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





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